Bank Failures and the Cost of Systemic Risk: Evidence from 1900-1930* Paul H. Kupiec and Carlos D. Ramireza Revised: March 2010 Keywords: bank failures; credit channel; systemic risk; financial accelerator, vector autoregressions; Panic of 1907; non-bank commercial failures JEL Classification Codes: N11, N21, E44, E32 * The views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. We are grateful to Mark Flannery, Ed Kane, Thomas Philippon, Peter Praet, Lee Davidson, Vivian Hwa, and Daniel Parivisini for helpful comments and suggestions. Ramirez acknowledges financial support from the FDIC’s Center for Financial Research. a Carlos Ramirez is Associate Professor, Department of Economics, George Mason University, and Visiting Fellow, Center for Financial Research, FDIC. Email:
[email protected]. Paul Kupiec is an economist at the FDIC. Email:
[email protected]. Bank Failures and the Cost of Systemic Risk: Evidence from 1900-1930 Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of bank failures on economic growth using new data on bank failures from 1900 to 1930. The sample period predates active government stabilization policies and includes several severe banking crises. We use VAR and difference-in-difference methods to estimate the impact of bank failures on economic activity. VAR results show bank failures have negative and long-lasting effects on economic growth. Three quarters after a bank failure shock involving one percent of total bank liabilities (primarily deposits), GNP is reduced by about 6.9 percent. Difference-in- difference results suggest that bank failures trigger an increase in non-bank failures.