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Oil, Islam and Conflict Central Asia Since 1945 Robjohnson OIL, ISLAM AND CONFLICT CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1945 ROB JOHNSON CONTEMPORARYWORLDS OIL, ISLAM AND CONFLICT CONTEMPORARY WORLDS explores the present and recent past. Books in the series take a distinctive theme, geo-political entity or cultural group and explore their developments over a period ranging usually over the last fifty years. The impact of current events and developments are accounted for by rapid but clear interpretation in order to unveil the cultural, political, religious and technological forces that are reshaping today’s worlds. series editor Jeremy Black In the same series Britain since the Seventies Jeremy Black Sky Wars: A History of Military Aerospace Power David Gates War since 1945 Jeremy Black The Global Economic System since 1945 Larry Allen A Region in Turmoil: South Asian Conflicts since 1947 Rob Johnson Altered States: America since the Sixties Jeremy Black The Contemporary Caribbean Olwyn M. Blouet OIL, ISLAM AND CONFLICT Central Asia since 1945 ROB JOHNSON REAKTION BOOKS Mark Fawcett, ‘Semper Fidelis’. Published by Reaktion Books Ltd 33 Great Sutton Street London ec1v 0dx www.reaktionbooks.co.uk First published 2007 Copyright © Rob Johnson 2007 All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers. Printed and bound in Great Britain by Cromwell Press, Trowbridge, Wiltshire British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Johnson, Robert, 1967– Oil, Islam and conflict: Central Asia since 1945. – (Contemporary worlds) 1. Asia, Central – Politics and government I. Title 958.042 isbn-13: 978 1 86189 339 0 isbn-10: 1 86189 339 6 Contents Preface 9 Acknowledgements 12 1 Regional Issues and Contemporary History 13 2 The Central Asian Republics before and after 1991 33 3 Islam and Islamism 63 4 The Tajik Civil War and the Islamic Renaissance Party 80 5 The Afghan Civil War and the Taliban 96 6 The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan/Turkestan and Regional Insurgency 114 7 The Chechen and Caucasus Wars 138 8 China and Xinjiang Province 173 9 Hydrocarbons and the Great Powers 198 10 Trajectories 215 References 243 Select Bibliography 254 Index 265 s Frontier n i Internationally unrecognized a SSS de facto frontier/cease fire line t UU n u o RR M U l K a R Orenburg r A I U N E KAZA Astrakhan A C B K aa A H SOUTH uu C A Z cc OSSETIA H I aa E A E ss C Grozny uu H Aral N ss S G Y E O M A Sea R G oo I A uu TbilisiTbilisi nn tt N aa U Y A ii Z R nn B E M ss A E E K YerevanYerevan N K I AAN I A EERRBBAAIIJJ Urganch R AAZZ I Baku S U P A m T u to Azerbaijan S T D U a KARABAGH R K r Bokhara M ia A E Tabriz KK N (O oo I S xu pp s E C T ) l ee A R b tt N iv Ashgabat er Z Z r iver At M u R rek oo z uu aa M nn Mary o u n s ttaa gg t a i n iinn IRAIRAQIRAQQ Teheran ss rr Mashad oo BaghdadBaghdad ss MM Herat oo uu IRAN nn A FF G H tt aa ii 0miles300 K UU nn 0km500 WW Persian SAUDI AA ss ARABIA IITT Gulf AFGHANISTAN Map by András Bereznay; www.historyonmaps.com SSS II I AA Astana MONGO AA LIA ll tt aa yy Karaganda M tt ss .. KHSTAN Lake Balkash Urumchi Sy r D R nn a iver Ili aa ria R i Ferghana Almaty hh ve r Valley SS Bishkek nn Xinjiang K YYRRG H YYZ SS ee TTA N TashkentTashkent ii rim CHINA Ta ey r .. T Vall e ana iv A FFergh TT R ss N (to Uzb.) Sukh (to Uzb.) tt Samarkand Kashi M Vorukh (to Taj.) (Kashgar) T A J I K I S T A N nn DushanbeDushanbe uu Pamirs Khotan ll nn K uu hh KKaa ss rraa uu kkoo K rraa uu P m nn dd RR Tibet ii A aa H nngg Kabul H ee K PeshawarPeshawarPeshawar I ii N ee IslamabadIslamabad A g g SS TT S A N II n n m a a T R R r e v n n a i A R a a Kandahar s ll m m u N i i d INDIAINDIA a n a a I l l yy uu a SS NEPAL AFGHANISTAN Preface This book, part of the Contemporary Worlds series edited by Professor Jeremy Black, is designed to complement A Region in Turmoil (2005), a study of conflict in South Asia since 1947, and forthcoming studies of South-west Asia. This is a thematic and comparative study of the new battlefields in Central Asia. Though barely understood in the West, Central Asia has long been the crossroads of civilizations and conquests. Nevertheless, it is in the post-Soviet era that perhaps the most dramatic changes are taking place. A regional perspective allows us to gather together and analyse a range of current issues in their historical perspec- tive, including the future of Central Asian hydrocarbons, the problem of security and stability in the republics and the themes of representation, repression and resistance. This region is likely to become a new arena of international interest in the 21st century, not least because of its cocktail of abundant oil and gas, Islamic jihadist groups, dictatorial regimes, and rivalry between Russia, China, Pakistan, the us and Iran. Indeed, it could become the ‘new Middle East’ in the sense of being a battleground for access to precious resources, for religious fundamentalism and for sectarianism and authoritarian-vs-democratic politics. Narcotics, ethnic tensions and impoverished states with, or seeking, weapons of mass destruc- tion (wmd) further add to the instability. Instead of looking at individual states or separating the issues, we are able to examine the activities of pan-Islamic jihadist groups, such as 9 the Islamic Movement of Turkestan (imt, formerly known as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, or imu), which operates across national borders. Likewise, it allows us to trace the Islamic Renaissance Party, Hizb ut-Tahrir (ht), ‘Arab-Afghans’ and the Chechen fighters who have participated in one way or another in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq. A regional study also enables us to make comparative assess- ments of the ‘oil pipeline’ politics of the great powers and the Central Asian leaders. Above all, this work attempts to combine the context of recent history, the oil and gas industry, endemic economic weaknesses and the rise of militant Islam but also stresses the importance of the policy line being taken by the Central Asian regimes – which Olivier Roy, Ahmed Rashid and other specialist observers have suggested are the cause of many current problems. This book also offers a perspective on the ‘war on terror’ from a particular region in light of the West’s experiences (Russia is included as a ‘Western’ power in this sense) in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Iraq. This is particularly relevant given the West’s interest in Iran’s nuclear programme and in China’s apparently burgeoning power. Finally, it gives us a fresh perspective on problems which feature frequently in the media, especially Afghanistan, the rise of religious extremism and anxiety about wmd. Given that contemporary definitions of Islam are ‘loaded’ with particular meanings which have political overtones, it is necessary to offer some explanation of the terms used in this work. I make a distinc- tion between Islam – the established religion of the Muslim world – and Islamism – a radical, politicized ideology. Islamists believe that their faith is superior and that action is required to assert its pre- eminence. This can take the form of justifications for direct action or popular protest, such as ‘the defence’ of the religion, the ‘protection’ of fellow Muslims regardless of their nationality, or a desire to expunge a ‘humiliation’ of Islam. Islamism can take the form of peaceful, if vocal and strident, protest, but it can also mean support for underground organizations, sympathy for ‘resistance’ (or terrorist) groups, and even more active participation. In a storm of protest about the publication of cartoons allegedly depicting the Prophet Muhammad, Islamists staged demonstrations around the world. One took place in London, where, in fact, the cartoons were not published. That did not prevent some 10 oil, islam and conflict protestors calling for the beheading of those who insult Islam (however they decided to interpret an insult), the killing of British servicemen and -women, and threats of terrorism on the streets of the capital. In Pakistan, there were riots in several cities and two people died, although it must be made clear that the majority of Pakistanis did not participate and were genuinely shocked by the levels of violence and vandalism. Islamists tend to blame a variety of groups for their plight. They criticize secular regimes in countries where the majority are Muslim; they point to Jewish and Christian-Western capitalist conspiracies; above all, they blame the us, its foreign policy, its espi- onage, and its military and economic power. Islamists seek to mobilize Muslims, to move populations towards mass resistance, be that passive or more violent in form. Another distinction must be made, however, between Islamists and jihadists. Jihadists are the ‘active service units’ of the Islamist phenom- enon. They are highly committed and often fearless of death. Many are veterans of recent conflicts in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Chechnya or Iraq; almost all are idealists but a number are simply criminals.
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