Visions for a Sustainable Future Before Relocation of an Arctic Town
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Visions for a Sustainable Future Before Relocation of an Arctic Town Steven Zeff Natural Resource Management, Governance and Globalisation Master’s Thesis 2007:14 Visions for a Sustainable Future Before Relocation of an Arctic Town Steven Zeff Natural Resource Management, Governance and Globalisation Master’s Thesis 2007:14 Supervisor: Thomas Elmqvist Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research, CTM Stockholm University www.ctm.su.se This thesis is written to fulfil the requirements of the Master’s Programme: Natural Resource Management, Governance and Globalisation a transdisciplinary programme held by the Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research, CTM, at Stockholm University. The one-year programme consists of four courses and the writing of a Master’s thesis on a subject related to at least one of the courses. 1. Philosophy of Sustainability Science Addresses the difficulties and opportunities in transdisciplinary environmental research. In lectures and seminars participants discuss methodological and epistemological issues such as explanations, causality, systems borders, and objectivity. Held by the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Course leaders: Agr.Dr Thomas Hahn and Dr. Miriam Huitric 2. Natural Resource Management and Ecosystem Resilience Focuses on ecosystem capacity to generate life-supporting services, how different management approaches can affect this capacity, as well as which constraints and opportunities are offered by globalisation. Held by the Department of Systems Ecology Course leaders: Prof. Thomas Elmqvist, Dr. Jakob Lundberg and Henrik Ernston 3. Ecosystem Management: Collaboration in Networks and Organisations Investigates the social capacity to develop adaptive governance including arenas for collaboration and conflict resolution. Held by the Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research Course leaders: AgrDr. Thomas Hahn and Dr. Fiona Miller 4. International Governance of Natural Resource Management Uses a macro-perspective on governance. The actors and social-ecological drivers of international regimes are analysed, using case studies that provide a historical and institutional context. Legal as well as normative perspectives are discussed. Held by the Department of Economic History Course leader: Dr. Åsa Vifell More information on the programme is available at http://www.ctm.su.se/egg About The Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research (CTM): CTM aims to catalyse environmental research and promote environmental education across the faculties. CTM is part of Stockholm University and complements the activities of the different academic departments. CTM is also in close cooperation with other Stockholm-based organisations and institutes conducting research in the environmental and sustainable development field. CTM turns science into knowledge by spreading information about natural resources and environmental issues. We also offer seminars and courses on environmental and sustainable development issues. Homepage: http://www.ctm.su.se Acknowledgements Many thanks go to the interview respondents in Kiruna who graciously shared their time, information, visions and passion for the area, resulting in many engaging discussions. Several individuals provided advice, comments and support at different points in the process and their help is most appreciated; thank you to Thomas Elmqvist, Per Olsson, Miriam Huitric, Ruth Beilin, Stephan Barthel, Nina Brynefall, Ruari Carthew, Katarina Käll, Rob Johnson, Alexandra Berggren, Jinlou Huang, Clara Bird, Ola Tjörnbo and Annette Zeff. Heartfelt gratitude is due to my wife and daughter, Jaana and Zoe, for their incredible support in everything I do. Steven Zeff Stockholm, 23 July 2007 Cover Photo The insignia of the arctic town of Kiruna, Sweden, carved in a block of ice here, represents the symbol for iron, the region’s leading resource, and a ptarmigan, the bird for whom the area is named. The symbology could also be seen as representing man and nature. Abstract Societies are likely to face greater challenges in the future to build adaptive capacities for dealing with new scales and forms of disturbance, from climate change, population, globalization and other drivers. Strategies for dealing with significant change under uncertain conditions are needed. The unique case of Kiruna, Sweden electing to relocate its town to support economic imperatives of iron mining provides insight on a society before it enters a significant period of change. Preparations for change, stakeholder behavior, future visions and resilience-building in the period before impending change are reported here. As prelude to a prolonged disturbance period, actors are seen self-promoting, standing up higher for their interests and curiously standing by. Relocation of the town, the municipal seat, has wider implications for the region as a whole. Arriving at a shared vision to direct change towards a sustainable future appears difficult in a setting of diverse interests, scale mismatches, and conflicts of authority and land use. Stakeholders hold visions at smaller scales that represent regime maintenance, facing change and directing change for opportunity. A too-similar time-advanced case involving the same mining company in another locality is little acknowledged in the community, as trust, nationalism and optimism lead. The living scenario with less-than-desired conditions highlights the need to postulate potential future scenarios in order to build transformative capacities and avoid unsustainable paths, in tandem with seeking trail-breaking visions for sustainable futures. Disturbance in this case is not only a measure of spatial displacement but also of the resources made available to rebuild a community; the question is not only how to move a town, but how to move a society with sense of place values and quality-of-life standards. In preparation for an uncertain and prolonged period of change, a two pronged vision-and-scenario approach to resilience-building is recommended. Keywords: relocation, resilience, mining, arctic, community, visions, scenarios, sustainability Acronyms EU European Union ILO International Labour Organisation IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRF Swedish Institute of Space Physics LKAB Luossavaara Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag (state-owned iron ore mining company) MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MAB UNESCO's Man and Biosphere program of biosphere reserves SEK Swedish unit of currency, the krona (1 SEK = 0.15 USD, 19 May 2007) SES social ecological system SSC Swedish Space Corporation UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization USGS United States Geological Survey 1 Table of Contents 1. Introduction................................................................................... 3 Research Questions 2. Theoretical Framework……………………………….………... 4 Resilience Theory Non-renewable Resources, Mining Communities Displacements, Relocations, Sense of Place Sustainability, Visions Community, Social Resilience, Vulnerability Societies Facing Change, Kiruna Case 3. Case Study Description……………….…………….………….. 9 Kiruna Environment and Natural Resources Interest Areas Kiruna Town, Mining and Relocation 4. Methods………………………………………………................ 12 Case Selection, Scale, Research Design Framework Background Information Formulation, Community Interest Groups Identified Exploratory Phase, Identification of Key Informants In-depth Interviews with Key Informants, Questioning to Derive Data on Visions Interview Data Collection, Follow-up and Supplementary Interviews Primary Data Organization, Triangulation, Analysis and Derivation of Results Bias 5. Data Results……………………………………………………. 21 Answers to Research Questions Features for Developing Unified Vision Visions and Vision-Guided Practices Visions for Economic Sustainability Visions for Social sustainability Visions for Environmental Sustainability Landscape Perceptions, Environmental Protection and Reserves 6. Discussion…………………………………………………….... 36 Visions, Stakeholders, Community, Governance Assessing Kiruna’s Resilience Leadership, Collaboration, Biosphere Reserve Mine and Society Uncertainty and Scenarios Four Scenarios for Kiruna 7. Conclusions……………………………………………………. 48 References…………………………..……………………………. 51 Glossary…………………………….……………………………. 54 Appendix…………………………………………………………. 55 2 Different societies respond differently to similar problems…A society’s responses depend on its political, economic, and social institutions and on its cultural values. Those institutions and values affect whether the society solves (or even tries to solve) its problems. (Diamond 2005:14) Introduction Human communities worldwide are expected to increasingly face disturbances requiring significant adaptive and transformative capacities in order to sustain economic, social and environmental well-being (MA 2005). Environmental change, population growth, socioeconomic forces and globalization dynamics present mounting challenges to social ecological systems at many scales. Societies have collapsed and dissolved from the synergies of their problems and adaptive responses (Diamond 2005). People have been displaced by natural disaster, environmental degradation and development activity. Human settlements, including those in developed countries, could face the future necessity of relocation from foreseeable effects of warming climate at a global scale (IPCC 2007). The case of Kiruna, Sweden, presents opportunity to analyze the dynamics of a society about