Visions for a Sustainable Future Before Relocation of an Arctic Town
Visions for a Sustainable Future Before Relocation of an Arctic Town
Steven Zeff
Natural Resource Management, Governance and Globalisation Master’s Thesis 2007:14
Visions for a Sustainable Future Before Relocation of an Arctic Town
Steven Zeff
Natural Resource Management, Governance and Globalisation Master’s Thesis 2007:14
Supervisor: Thomas Elmqvist
Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research, CTM Stockholm University www.ctm.su.se This thesis is written to fulfil the requirements of the Master’s Programme:
Natural Resource Management, Governance and Globalisation a transdisciplinary programme held by the Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research, CTM, at Stockholm University. The one-year programme consists of four courses and the writing of a Master’s thesis on a subject related to at least one of the courses.
1. Philosophy of Sustainability Science Addresses the difficulties and opportunities in transdisciplinary environmental research. In lectures and seminars participants discuss methodological and epistemological issues such as explanations, causality, systems borders, and objectivity. Held by the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Course leaders: Agr.Dr Thomas Hahn and Dr. Miriam Huitric 2. Natural Resource Management and Ecosystem Resilience Focuses on ecosystem capacity to generate life-supporting services, how different management approaches can affect this capacity, as well as which constraints and opportunities are offered by globalisation. Held by the Department of Systems Ecology Course leaders: Prof. Thomas Elmqvist, Dr. Jakob Lundberg and Henrik Ernston 3. Ecosystem Management: Collaboration in Networks and Organisations Investigates the social capacity to develop adaptive governance including arenas for collaboration and conflict resolution. Held by the Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research Course leaders: AgrDr. Thomas Hahn and Dr. Fiona Miller 4. International Governance of Natural Resource Management Uses a macro-perspective on governance. The actors and social-ecological drivers of international regimes are analysed, using case studies that provide a historical and institutional context. Legal as well as normative perspectives are discussed. Held by the Department of Economic History Course leader: Dr. Åsa Vifell
More information on the programme is available at http://www.ctm.su.se/egg
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CTM aims to catalyse environmental research and promote environmental education across the faculties. CTM is part of Stockholm University and complements the activities of the different academic departments. CTM is also in close cooperation with other Stockholm-based organisations and institutes conducting research in the environmental and sustainable development field. CTM turns science into knowledge by spreading information about natural resources and environmental issues. We also offer seminars and courses on environmental and sustainable development issues.
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Acknowledgements
Many thanks go to the interview respondents in Kiruna who graciously shared their time, information, visions and passion for the area, resulting in many engaging discussions. Several individuals provided advice, comments and support at different points in the process and their help is most appreciated; thank you to Thomas Elmqvist, Per Olsson, Miriam Huitric, Ruth Beilin, Stephan Barthel, Nina Brynefall, Ruari Carthew, Katarina Käll, Rob Johnson, Alexandra Berggren, Jinlou Huang, Clara Bird, Ola Tjörnbo and Annette Zeff. Heartfelt gratitude is due to my wife and daughter, Jaana and Zoe, for their incredible support in everything I do. Steven Zeff Stockholm, 23 July 2007
Cover Photo The insignia of the arctic town of Kiruna, Sweden, carved in a block of ice here, represents the symbol for iron, the region’s leading resource, and a ptarmigan, the bird for whom the area is named. The symbology could also be seen as representing man and nature. Abstract Societies are likely to face greater challenges in the future to build adaptive capacities for dealing with new scales and forms of disturbance, from climate change, population, globalization and other drivers. Strategies for dealing with significant change under uncertain conditions are needed.
The unique case of Kiruna, Sweden electing to relocate its town to support economic imperatives of iron mining provides insight on a society before it enters a significant period of change. Preparations for change, stakeholder behavior, future visions and resilience-building in the period before impending change are reported here. As prelude to a prolonged disturbance period, actors are seen self-promoting, standing up higher for their interests and curiously standing by. Relocation of the town, the municipal seat, has wider implications for the region as a whole. Arriving at a shared vision to direct change towards a sustainable future appears difficult in a setting of diverse interests, scale mismatches, and conflicts of authority and land use. Stakeholders hold visions at smaller scales that represent regime maintenance, facing change and directing change for opportunity.
A too-similar time-advanced case involving the same mining company in another locality is little acknowledged in the community, as trust, nationalism and optimism lead. The living scenario with less-than-desired conditions highlights the need to postulate potential future scenarios in order to build transformative capacities and avoid unsustainable paths, in tandem with seeking trail-breaking visions for sustainable futures.
Disturbance in this case is not only a measure of spatial displacement but also of the resources made available to rebuild a community; the question is not only how to move a town, but how to move a society with sense of place values and quality-of-life standards. In preparation for an uncertain and prolonged period of change, a two pronged vision-and-scenario approach to resilience-building is recommended.
Keywords: relocation, resilience, mining, arctic, community, visions, scenarios, sustainability
Acronyms
EU European Union ILO International Labour Organisation IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRF Swedish Institute of Space Physics LKAB Luossavaara Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag (state-owned iron ore mining company) MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment MAB UNESCO's Man and Biosphere program of biosphere reserves SEK Swedish unit of currency, the krona (1 SEK = 0.15 USD, 19 May 2007) SES social ecological system SSC Swedish Space Corporation UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization USGS United States Geological Survey
1 Table of Contents
1. Introduction...... 3 Research Questions 2. Theoretical Framework……………………………….………... 4 Resilience Theory Non-renewable Resources, Mining Communities Displacements, Relocations, Sense of Place Sustainability, Visions Community, Social Resilience, Vulnerability Societies Facing Change, Kiruna Case 3. Case Study Description……………….…………….………….. 9 Kiruna Environment and Natural Resources Interest Areas Kiruna Town, Mining and Relocation 4. Methods………………………………………………...... 12 Case Selection, Scale, Research Design Framework Background Information Formulation, Community Interest Groups Identified Exploratory Phase, Identification of Key Informants In-depth Interviews with Key Informants, Questioning to Derive Data on Visions Interview Data Collection, Follow-up and Supplementary Interviews Primary Data Organization, Triangulation, Analysis and Derivation of Results Bias 5. Data Results……………………………………………………. 21 Answers to Research Questions Features for Developing Unified Vision Visions and Vision-Guided Practices Visions for Economic Sustainability Visions for Social sustainability Visions for Environmental Sustainability Landscape Perceptions, Environmental Protection and Reserves 6. Discussion…………………………………………………….... 36 Visions, Stakeholders, Community, Governance Assessing Kiruna’s Resilience Leadership, Collaboration, Biosphere Reserve Mine and Society Uncertainty and Scenarios Four Scenarios for Kiruna 7. Conclusions……………………………………………………. 48
References…………………………..……………………………. 51 Glossary…………………………….……………………………. 54 Appendix…………………………………………………………. 55
2 Different societies respond differently to similar problems…A society’s responses depend on its political, economic, and social institutions and on its cultural values. Those institutions and values affect whether the society solves (or even tries to solve) its problems. (Diamond 2005:14)
Introduction Human communities worldwide are expected to increasingly face disturbances requiring significant adaptive and transformative capacities in order to sustain economic, social and environmental well-being (MA 2005). Environmental change, population growth, socioeconomic forces and globalization dynamics present mounting challenges to social ecological systems at many scales. Societies have collapsed and dissolved from the synergies of their problems and adaptive responses (Diamond 2005). People have been displaced by natural disaster, environmental degradation and development activity. Human settlements, including those in developed countries, could face the future necessity of relocation from foreseeable effects of warming climate at a global scale (IPCC 2007).
The case of Kiruna, Sweden, presents opportunity to analyze the dynamics of a society about to embark on major change. The local government has approved a multi-decade sequential relocation of its 18,000-person town in order to continue iron mining and preserve economic sustainability. How a community builds resilient capacities and visions for a sustainable future, before significant changes begin, holds potentially valuable lessons for other communities. Not unlike an approaching sea level rise, Kiruna’s prescribed disturbance represents a slow variable, allowing time to build capacities for change.
Agreeing to move a city is a unique adaptive response. Despite advance knowledge of the nature of coming disturbance, Kiruna is entering an uncertain future with challenges to its physical environment, societal structure, livelihoods and future sustainability. Relocation of the town has potential effect at a greater scale on the municipality’s vast arctic landscape, given potential impacts on population, economics and stakeholder relationships. The aim of this study was to investigate how a community facing impending change builds resilience and vision for its future. What visions for future sustainability exist and are they shared? Can collaborative processes provide arenas for developing unified visions? Is change seen as opportunity for greater pathways?
3 Using qualitative research methodologies, an investigation was undertaken not only to benchmark community visions at the initial stages of a unique relocation process, but to evaluate how a society facing imminent and significant change builds resilience for a sustainable future. With the challenges and uncertainties of a long period of disturbance, Kiruna’s community is mobilizing. Diverse interests and power dynamics appear to preclude development of a shared vision for the future. Externalities show potential to overwhelm local adaptive capacities, requiring resolution of scales and scenario planning as complement to vision-building for directing change.
Theoretical Framework Societies are complex adaptive systems, with multi-scalar interacting components and historical paths. Despite constant evolution they can be identified as being in characteristic states with identifiable interrelationships and flows of goods and services. From this regime identity perspective, resilience theory assesses the ability of a system, a society, to manage change, to absorb disturbances thrown at it, and attempt to stay in the same still-evolving characteristic state, or to reinvent itself and transition into another (Folke 2006).
Kiruna’s relocation case allows us to study that society’s response mechanisms to deliberate disturbance – the city will crack open as mining continues below it. Electing to physically move out of the path of what maintains economic vitality is an adaptive response of a resilient system to preserve one sector of its societal complex, requiring adjustments and transformations to other parts. Whether the system will retain its current regime characteristics, take a new possibly more enlightened path or fail to uphold qualities people demand of their living environment and collapse, depends on the emergence of resilient responses.
Adaptive capacity, the ability to avert a state change, requires a complex of rigorous response parameters, support mechanisms, flexible structures, redundancies, evolving interconnections and adaptive processes. In the event of change overwhelming a system’s capacity to adapt, new trajectories can be conceived and steered for as changes mount, representing transformative capacity and resilience at another scale. In such cases of regime shifts, the characteristic functions, flows and relationships have been altered and a responding
4 rearrangement of system components is mandated (Walker and Salt 2006). These disturbance and response mechanisms of resilience operate at a variety of temporal and spatial scales and characterize the evolving, adapting, self-organizing nature of complex systems like societies. Resilience theory has radiated out from a systems perspective in ecological studies, collecting disciplines along its way towards better understanding this important capacity of complex adaptive systems to buffer against change (Folke 2006)
The interrelatedness of people with their environment, a reliance on flows of ecosystem services valued for human sustainability and the high degree to which societies affect ecosystems as population, technology and globalization grow, mandate integrative perspective and a social ecological system paradigm to address resource and socioeconomic challenges. With flexibility, knowledge use, learning goals, cooperation and adaptive practices, renewable ecological resources can be sustainably managed (Meffe, et al. 2002). Assurance of resilient ecological systems provides the important values that sustain humans and their well-being (MA 2005).
The responsive and adaptive characteristics of natural resource management have no bearing on resources which are considered ‘non-renewable’ because of abstractly long temporal scales, uncertain spatial scales and extreme geophysical processes at which they are formed. While valued as ecosystem goods for the benefit of society, minerals and certain fuels can only be diminished, without possibility of renewal. From one perspective, increased technology for discovering and extracting non-renewable resources provides near-term sustainability of resource flows and associated socioeconomic parameters, but not of the resource itself. Extraction of non-renewable resources provides economic value to extraction companies, national governments and local communities at varying scales.
Mining endeavors have potential trajectories of both building up communities and uprooting them. Rural resource communities sprout up surrounding new extraction activities (Tykkylainen and Neil 1995) or mining activities can force evacuation of peoples misfortunately located (Downing 2002). National governments play an important facilitating role for mining companies while sharing in the mineral wealth and influencing the status of local citizens (Eggert 2001). Freudenberg (1992) observes that rural communities often build paths of deep economic dependence on their extractive industries, which according to Walker and Salt (2006:9) increase their vulnerability to disturbance: “the more you optimize elements
5 of a complex system of humans and nature for some specific goal, the more you diminish that system’s resilience.”
Mining of mineral resources in many cases has resulted in community transformations, livelihood disruptions and displacement of inhabitants, a result of resource access demands and environmental degradation (Diamond 2005). Problems from mining hardrock resources include surface disturbance, water pollution and waste rock accumulation. Responsibility for mitigation of mining’s side-effects belongs to the mining company and the supporting government and has been assumed at a wide range of levels in examples worldwide.
Displacement is an extreme by-product of development for the affected. Multitudes of individuals have been displaced from large-scale mining (Downing 2002) and dam projects (Ledec, et al. 2000), often involving marginalized people, developing countries or both. However, hundreds of communities in Germany have been uprooted for brown coal extraction in recent decades (Michel 2005) and two of Sweden’s iron ore communities today face relocations as mining encroaches on human settlements. Certain patterns of problems are seen in large resettlement cases, including poor planning, missing legal protection and inadequate compensation (Heming and Rees 2000). German displacements highlight complications for smaller-scale relocations: expensive planning, decreased property values, destruction of historic buildings, ongoing legal proceedings, resentment, environmental impacts, weakened ethnic communities, and realities divergent from planned outcomes (Michel 2005).
Compensation as a goal in itself falls short of the need to focus on sustainability needs of people displaced from economic, cultural and environmental bases (Downing 2002). Even with fair compensation, sense of place studies highlight how people relate from a place, develop place-based cultural values, and hold emotional relationships with physical space (Norton and Hannon 1997), all of which are disrupted by dis-placement. Strong cultural values surrounding particular structures motivate their preservation; the Egyptian monument Abu Simbel is perhaps the best example and one of a global sense of place, saved from damwaters by international effort.
Relocation events represent spatial shifts as well as regime shifts, and often manifest large scale transformations of communities, disrupting and reorganizing their original social,
6 cultural, economic and environmental ties with little or no opportunity for return. Large-scale disturbance that has been absorbed, adaptive capacity mustered and communities reinstated in their original place is exemplified by European cities destroyed by bombing during World War II that have been rebuilt in imitation of their original selves, from “twin impulses of nostalgia and opportunism” (Vale and Campanella 2005).
In a synthesis of urban disaster recovery Vale and Campanella (2005) note elements of politics, power, place, nationalism and humanity affecting resilience. Reparation from widespread destruction wrought on New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina is requiring synergy- building processes to manage politics, socioeconomic polarities, financing, cultural legacies and a multitude of other elements (de Souza Briggs 2006). That community is reassembling its social ecological system to resemble its former self within the same spatial scale but in a potentially transformed and more sustainable direction.
Disruptions of societies and forced relocations, while requiring adaptive and transformative actions to manage change, perhaps provide windows of opportunities to realign community visions for more sustainable directions. Sustainability, as an ideal evoking human well-being, is widely associated with human “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (UN 1987). Sustainable development is likewise evaluated within the three dimensions of economics, society and environment.
Facing change and building a bridge across disturbance to a sustainable future can be achieved by holding an image of the future; pioneering futurist Fred Polak (1973) attributes the success of certain societies to a clearly-envisioned future. Creating, communicating and empowering a vision to help direct change (Kotter 1995) can, by ‘backcasting’, inspire action plans and pathways to the future (Stevenson 2006). The recent trend in planning disciplines is to employ visions and participatory processes of ‘visioning’ (Shipley 2000). Collaborative visioning has come under criticism where power relations reduce efforts to a “rhetoric of inclusion and participation” (McCann 2001) and process takes on greater importance than goals (Helling 1998).
A construct of community is an important consideration in building visions to guide action- taking for sustainability. Understanding sustainability ideals and the governance that drives
7 them depends on a constructed sense of community (Liepins 2000) and its culturally-derived meaning relative to its members’ perceptions of boundaries (Cohen 1985). Institutions that bring communities closer together by encouraging cross-scale synergies, such as arenas for collaboration, bridging organizations and strong leadership, facilitate pursuit of sustainability goals (Hahn, et al. 2006).
Examples of sustainability at a global scale of significance include the biosphere reserves of the United Nations’ Education Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) Man and the Biosphere program. These important designated areas represent collaborative community ideals for sustainably interacting in the environment and preserving ecological systems while setting standards for the world.
Those collaborative efforts built on trust, networks and leadership (Pretty 2003) prove excellent channels for building resilience. These dimensions of vested social capital, together with mobilized social memory, the collective culturally-embedded experience base for facing change, help systems build adaptive and cohesive social framework for change, reducing vulnerability to undesirable shifts (Folke 2005).
Vulnerability of a community, as a function of its sensitivity and adaptive capacity to the dimensions of disturbance, is conferred differentially upon different socioeconomic strata (Adger 2006). Studies of mining-induced displacements portray politically weak and indigenous peoples among the more vulnerable (Downing 2002). Vulnerability can be seen as a flipside to the resilience of a society and its social mechanisms to deal with change.
Gunderson and Holling (2002) claim that the ways in which societies respond to change and reorganize afterwards are very poorly illuminated in resource management and scientific literature. Social ecological systems undergoing transformation (Olsson, et al. 2006, Walker and Salt 2006), cities responding to disaster (Vale and Campanella 2005) and societies collapsing (Diamond 2005) have been analyzed to understand better how human systems deal with change. These studies are retrospective analyses carried out after processes of change and adaptation have been in progress. How societies prepare for impending change and build future vision before recognized disturbance has struck, before societal responses have mustered and before uncertainties have unraveled, is far less understood.
8 The community-approved relocation of the town of Kiruna, Sweden provides opportunity to investigate a society in a pending-disturbance state, to seek the building blocks of adaptive capacity to manage for change. Community preparations to face coming disturbance reveal dynamics, strategies and subtleties of resilience-building for change and vision-building for the future that otherwise can not be discerned in retrospective analyses. Building knowledge of resilience-building and vision processes in advance of change can help societies prepare for coping with approaching disturbance.
Case Study Description Kiruna is a municipality of 20,000 square kilometers located above the Arctic Circle in northernmost Sweden in the area known as Lapland. It has low population density with approximately 18,000 of the municipality’s 23,000 people concentrated in the town of Kiruna. Kiruna can be originally characterized as a single-resource community, now with growing diversification of its economic base.
A construct of community for Kiruna includes few but extremely diverse interests. (See Table 1.) Table 1. Kiruna's Six Primary Community Interests
interest area organizations activities iron ore mining LKAB (state-owned) iron ore extraction & processing iron ore pellet transport local government Kiruna Kommun municipal decision-making municipal board, steering committee relocation/city planning tourism Icehotel snowmobiling, dogsledding Riksgränsen, Björkliden ski resorts skiing, hiking Abisko resort / NP ptarmigan hunting, fishing Mt. Kebnekaise area aurora watching science tourism, Sami tourism reindeer visits LKAB InfoMine mine tour space / science Esrange (state-owned) rocket and balloon launches IRF (Swed. Inst.of Space Physics) satellite tracking space college ionospheric studies Abisko Station climate studies Sami peoples Sami Parliament, Sami political list reindeer husbandry samebys (reindeer units) crafts, joikking outdoor recreation Kiruna hunting and fishing assoc’n snowmobiling, skiing, hiking snowmobile association flyfishing, icefishing ptarmigan, game hunting
Cultural and provisioning ecosystem services of open natural landscapes support tourism, rocket launches, reindeer husbandry and outdoor recreation. Kiruna’s natural environment is
9 characterized as arctic landscape or wilderness, with seven large rivers, over six thousand lakes including the 70-kilometer long Lake Torneträsk and several mountains including Sweden’s highest peak, Kebnekaise at 2,117 meters elevation. The municipality holds two national parks, nineteen European Union (EU) Natura 2000 areas, and other locally-protected areas for wildlife and indigenous Sami peoples’ use. One-third of the area has been kept in an undeveloped state by use as a rocket range.
A ‘biosphere reserve’ was established in Kiruna municipality in 1986 as part of UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere program. Lake Torne Area Biosphere Reserve encompasses 965 square kilometers and includes the region’s largest lake, and research, education, native Sami and tourism activities. With low population density, the reserve’s status is under review for its limited ability to set a sustainability example for the world; the municipality is considering its re-designation and expansion.
Conceptualization of Kiruna’s ecological system could extend under the ground and up through atmosphere into outer space. Mining at more than a kilometer beneath Earth’s surface coexists with rockets launched 700 Map 1. Kiruna, northern Sweden kilometers above. Natural resources valued as ecosystem goods and services by Kiruna’s KIRUNA population include: iron ore, pure ice, pristine wilderness, open spaces, aurora borealis, midnight sun, frozen waterways (for icefishing and travel), snow-covered areas (for snowmobile access), mountains (for recreation), reindeer habitat, and ptarmigan, rabbit, moose, arctic char, grayling, pike and perch.
The area’s tourism industry includes ski resorts and mountain hiking facilities. The primary destination for visitors is the Icehotel, a unique facility seventeen kilometers from downtown Kiruna reconstructed annually from river ice. This successful tourist enterprise supports a variety of ecotourism operations in the local vicinity, including dogsledding, snowmobiling and cultural experiences with Sami reindeer-herders.
10 Kiruna’s traditional Sami peoples are organized into seven reindeer husbandry units, samebys, which utilize forests for winter foraging, more mountainous areas for summer grazing and migration pathways between. The Sami are considered Europe’s only indigenous peoples. Migration routes for two samebys adjacent to Kiruna town will be affected by the relocation.
The town of Kiruna lies at 67° 51’N latitude, 20° 14’E longitude (see Map 1.), and was founded as a “model community” company town in 1900 by a then-fledgling iron ore mining company. Luossavaara Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag (LKAB) was named for the two iron-rich mountains located at the town. Kiruna owes its existence to the mine and has depended on iron mining for its economic base. LKAB has supported thousands of local jobs through its history and provides great economic benefit to state of Sweden, achieving over six billion SEK in operating profit in 2005.
As it turned out, the town of Kiruna was not only built on mining, it is built on the mine itself; continued mining in modern times is cracking the surface of the human settlement above. These dramatic side effects of the region’s primary industry will be absorbed by the community which has agreed to move and rearrange its city layout out of the path of mining beneath it. As mining follows the orebody down under the city, sublevel caving extraction
Map 2. Deformation Zones by Year techniques cause waste rock to fall down into newly-formed cavities, which in turn cracks the Earth’s surface above. Deformation occurs in a potentially predictable radial pattern, and projected impacts for the town’s streets and neighborhoods have been identified by year. (See Map 2.) Approximately 1800 residents are expected to be displaced by advancing mining within the first thirty years of relocation, all within the old LKAB company area. Within thirty years, the town’s center will be affected.
Kiruna’s mine is one of the largest, most technologically-advanced in the world, with four- hundred kilometers of maintained roads and high automation. The region’s economic focus is a singular magnetite mass of high iron content, four kilometers long, and 80-meters thick,
11 which angles under the city to a depth of two kilometers. Approximately two-thirds of this non-renewable resource remains to be mined. LKAB is currently investing heavily in its Kiruna operations.
Global iron ore prices are at elevated levels because of high demand from China (USGS 2007). These trends are expected to continue. Kiruna’s municipal council has given official approval for the decades-long sequential relocation of the town, and possibly most of the city, so that lucrative mining can continue. LKAB’s high profitability is a result of the orebody’s naturally-high iron content, processing of ore into saleable pellets and aims to increase productivity (Hellmer 1997). The extremely profitable company is wholly-owned by the state Map 3. Northwest Alternative, site for new downtown of Sweden, which received more than 3 billion SEK in profit and taxes in 2005 from LKAB’s operations.
The relationship between Kiruna and the mining company is a deeply entrenched one. LKAB founded the town and has been its primary employer for its century- long history. While space research and tourism have entered the economy, the town is still economically, historically and culturally dependent on the mine. On January 8, 2007, Kiruna’s municipal council approved a 262-page ‘master plan’ for the relocation and selected the ‘Northwest Alternative’, a lakeside area four kilometers distant, as site for a new downtown. (See Map 3.)
Methods
Case Selection This study focuses on elements of vision-building and sustainability of the municipality of Kiruna, Sweden, which has made a historic decision to undertake relocation of the region’s focal point, the town of Kiruna. Kiruna’s relocation was selected as a case study because of the potential to better understand resilience of social ecological systems facing significant change. Not dissimilar to the arctic ecosystems around it with fewer species represented (Elmqvist, et al. 2004), Kiruna’s societal system could be considered
12 simple as well, perhaps making it easier to analyze, with only six key interest areas, low population and primary dependence on one industry.
Kiruna was also selected for study for its timeliness; in that a window of opportunity existed to study the community after official decisions to relocate had occurred but before disturbance began. The timeframe of this study was from December 2006 - July 2007, with a concerted effort between February - May 2007.
Scale Relocation of the town of Kiruna was considered to have implications at a greater spatial scale, with potential impacts on the arctic landscape and municipality as a whole. The town of Kiruna plays an important role providing economic and political support for outlying communities in the municipality; this is particularly true for Sami villages. The relocation may impact the municipality’s population and demographics which in turn would affect land use considerations. Infrastructure changes have potential broader implications. The way in which the relocation is managed has potential effects on relationships between community stakeholders which can influence landscape conflicts on a broader scale. The approaching period of significant disturbance raises broad issues and highlights interests and values of various stakeholders affecting the region as a whole.
Research Design Framework Methodology for the study consisted primarily of qualitative research methods of data collection and analysis from sociology, business and anthropology disciplines, with focus on interview research and content analysis for theme identification. The primary purpose of the study was an academic effort using standards of basic research in an applied research case study. Background information for the case and its theoretical bases was accumulated through secondary source investigations. Primary data collection was conducted through qualitative research methods, including a round of exploratory interviews followed by in-depth interviews with identified key informants of identified key community sectors. Focused use of key informants in a semi-structured interview framework was employed (Tremblay 1957). Qualitative investigations were conducted with reference to Patton’s (2002:331) ‘summary guidelines for fieldwork’. Research design for interviews was based on Kvale’s (1996) ‘seven stages of an interview investigation’, including focused effort on building pre-knowledge, clarifying the study’s purpose and mastering interviewing techniques. A mental construct of the interviewer as an evaluator-observer (Patton 2002) and
13 research instrument (Kvale 1996) was endeavored, as was a humble effort to maintain an open, self-reflective, transparent approach throughout the research effort.
Unstructured investigations in a first exploratory phase created knowledge to focus the research direction, identify key interview subjects, and organize the structure of the more formal in-depth interviews with key informants. Data collected firsthand were complemented and triangulated with an ongoing review of secondary data sources (media, websites, and publications) and by field visits to facilities, sites, museums and relocation areas. Interviews with key informants were recorded, transcribed and analyzed. Data for telephone contacts, informal exploratory interviews and field visits were recorded in the form of field notes, sound recordings and digital photographs.
Background Information Formulation Secondary data resource materials – news articles in print and electronic media, company publications, books and websites – were investigated to build background understanding of the case. Academic literature was searched for understanding theoretical bases. Key spokespeople identified from secondary data resources were contacted by email and telephone to gain further background knowledge and to begin collecting primary data and making contacts. Potential interview subjects were identified through a snowball effect of telephone and email investigations. Accumulated background information helped develop understanding of terminology used by future interview subjects to formulate more effective interview questioning. Field notes for all significant telephone and in-person contacts made throughout the project, were recorded, typed up and compiled for further analysis.
Community Interest Groups Identified Through theme identification of background information, six main stakeholder groups emerged that could be identified as comprising the community of Kiruna. (See Table 1.) A conscious decision was made to include the local government authority as an interest group, rather than solely as collective representation of community interests, because of its political position relative to LKAB and its owner the state, political authority at a higher scale. Tourism and outdoor recreation, while engaging in some of the same activities, were seen as very distinct sectors with distinct interests of economic gain and access to outdoor resources, respectively. It became quite apparent during background knowledge development that outdoor recreation was an important motivator for people living in Kiruna and was included as a key interest. Throughout the research inquiry,
14 community was assessed from a holistic perspective as a system of relative interdependencies (Patton 2002). A first round of exploratory interviews served to better understand synergies and tensions represented in constructing a sense of community.
Exploratory Phase After a significant level of background information was collected, as determined by a significantly decreasing rate of new knowledge accumulation, a first field visit was made to Kiruna, February 28 – March 3, 2007, in order to build greater background knowledge and identify contacts through exploratory interviews and site visits. In-person exploratory interviews were conducted with information officers, public relations personnel and business development officials of identified key organizations that represented the six identified key community interests. These interview interactions lasted between half-an-hour and two hours each. Consideration of expanding Kiruna’s existing biosphere reserve, part of UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere Program, was used as an arena for discussion of sustainability, land use and collaboration issues.
Investigatory site visits were made during two visits to Kiruna: half-kilometer underground into the mine, to the Icehotel, rocket launch facility, Sami Parliament and hunting and fishing association; through the arctic landscape; to museums, libraries, photo archives, tourist information office; to the historic buildings and neighborhoods of important consideration in the relocation, and to the city area to first be evacuated. Field notes and digital photographs were used to develop research materials.
Identification of Key Informants From exploratory data, site visits, background materials, and further telephone and email contacts, six prominent officials of the six most prominent organizations representing the six identified community interest areas were identified. The goal was to gain a representative idea of vision-building processes in the community relative to the relocation from each of the key stakeholder groups, by procuring primary data through qualitative interviews with an individual of high position from each sector. Key informants were strategically chosen, with careful consideration of the goals of the study and the structure of the community, and of their roles in society, potential as knowledge resources and willingness to communicate information (Tremblay 1957). Individuals most involved with the relocation were targeted from the mining and local government sectors. For the other interests, individuals of highest position in the most prominent organizations were targeted.
15 In-depth Interviews with Key Informants In-depth semi-structured sit-down interviews were conducted with the six identified key informants (see Table 2.) on a second visit to Kiruna on March 25–29, 2007. Interviews lasted between one hour and three hours fifteen minutes. Table 2. Key Informants Thomas Nylund local gov't Kiruna Kommun, Chief Architect / Head of Relocation Planning LKAB Representative 1 mining LKAB Peter Ögren recreation Kiruna hunting and fishing association, Fishing Regulations Manager Ragnhild Svonni Sami Sami Political List, Kiruna Steering Board & Town Council Dr. Olle Norberg space Esrange (Swedish Space Corporation), Director Yngve Bergqvist tourism Icehotel, Owner / Founder Qualitative research methodologies were employed, including development of predetermined themes and some scripted questions. Interviews were conceived as structured conversations seeking both thematic and dynamic aspects, to generate theoretical knowledge and create an engaging conversation experience and context for better achieving the interview study’s goals (Kvale 1996). Guidelines for carrying out in-depth, open-ended interviews were utilized, including formulation and rehearsal of interview questions that were clear, open, neutral, singular and non-dichotomous (Patton 2002). Follow-ups, probes, clarifications and link- back questions were employed for further investigation into meaning of respondent information.
For methodological support, consultation with an expert in qualitative research techniques was made to develop an approach to the line of questions regarding visions for future sustainability. Themes, semi-scripted questions, and the visioning line of questioning were furthered refined through pilot testing with secondary contacts by telephone and with practice interviewees in person, conducted in advance of the interviews. Test recordings of some pilot interviews were made and evaluated to improve interview success.
Questioning to Derive Data on Visions After introductory comments, interviews were started by having respondents richly describe an aspect of their interest area, to set a context within which to probe more deeply (Patton 2002) for perspectives on vision-building and sustainability. The interviewees were asked questions regarding their perception of community synergies and conflicts, arenas for collaboration, the upcoming relocation, environmental concerns and innovation in the community, to gain knowledge and set a background in which to pursue a line of questioning related to visions for the future.
16 A more standardized module was included where each of the interviewees was asked the same line of questioning in order to explore community visions for a sustainable future. (See Appendix A.) These questions referred to their earliest impressions of the Kiruna area, their ability to build a future vision at that past time, how that vision was different from current reality, and how they perceived a future vision, its sustainability ideals and the measures necessary to achieve that vision. As an endpoint and standby closing question in the event of a truncated interview, informants were given opportunity to express their greatest hopes for the future. Other questions, more specific to the individual interviewee and their interest area, were presented as probes, follow-up and background-building within the semi-structured nature of the qualitative interviews.
Interview Data Collection All interviews were conducted at the key informants’ places of business or association. Data from interviews with key informants were collected by field notes made during interviews, observations and notes recorded shortly after interviews, and by sound recordings of interviews, important for improving the interview process and performing analysis afterwards (Lofland, 1971). None of the six key interview subjects showed any reluctance to being recorded. While ethical considerations were rigorously upheld throughout the research process, no informant privacy consent agreements were offered, or requested; informants were subsequently contacted for permission to use their names and two declined.
Most interviews began before recordings started and some continued afterwards; rigorous field notes for off-recording interactions were recorded, typed up and compiled for analysis. Interviews were recorded using the voice recorder in a Sony Ericsson mobile telephone. Given sound quality comparable to that of other devices and manageable file sizes, it is suggested that mobile telephones with ‘flight mode’ capability to shut off incoming calls, provide acceptable convenient technology for recording and storing interviews in the field. Recordings were transferred to a computer, transcribed and reviewed for analysis.
Follow-up and Supplementary Interviews Supplementary telephone interviews and email contacts were made with some key informants as follow-up, and with further-identified contacts. (See Appendix B.) Results were recorded as field notes and transcribed from handwritten notes into text documents for analysis. A mock seminar was held during this period to receive feedback on preliminary results.
17 Primary Data Organization The primary data consisted of: six in-depth semi-structured interviews with key informants lasting at least one hour each, as well as eight exploratory in- person interviews lasting at least forty minutes, five significant exploratory phone interviews, four supplementary in-person contacts and two significant supplementary phone interviews. Field notes were typed up for all contacts. A total of 9 hours and 35 minutes of recorded interviews was collected. Interview recordings were transcribed into text documents by the principal researcher by repeated playback. Transcriptions were used to recover unintentionally-overlooked information content, to clarify meaning, seek narratives and as input for extensive data analysis. Information in the interview transcripts was reviewed, preliminarily analyzed and categorized into identified and named data subject areas. Potential quotations were highlighted.
Triangulation Primary data from key informant interviews, exploratory interviews and secondary contacts were correlated against secondary data resources, including published vision plans, a master plan overview for the municipality, news articles, university studies, website information, books, maps, field notes and photographs; these materials were used continuously throughout the study, for clarification, question probes and counterpoint to interview responses. The materials were used as a cross-reference against primary data sources to assess the authenticity, time relevance, potential bias or same-source dependency of interview information.
Analysis and Derivation of Results The goal of the analysis was to identify how community interests perceived elements of vision for a sustainable future and to identify key components that support resilience to manage change. Research analysis of primary data was conducted in line with thematic ‘meaning analysis’ (Kvale 1996) and ‘content analysis’ (Patton 2002) for data distillation, theme generation and sense-making for meaning. Analysis was conducted with an eye towards maintaining balance between data and concepts, evidence and perspective, themes and narratives, and analysis and description.
All interview transcripts and field notes were compiled and coded by organization, individual and interview session, consisting of a total of 35 primary data documents for 23 different respondents. All data were reviewed more than once and inductively analyzed for emergent themes by methodically creating categories of concepts (Bryman and Bell 2003, Patton 2002),
18 which were named and marked in the margins of texts. Four hundred and ninety-six separate subject categories were derived from the 35 primary data documents and a spreadsheet created to note which subjects were addressed in each interview record. Refinement and redundancy-removal of concept categories, integration of data records for individual respondents and removal of minor respondents resulted in a new matrix of 44 general subjects and 397 concept categories for 21 respondents. This organization of the data was used to search for deeper understanding of concepts across respondents, to identify patterns and connections, find potential contradictions, assure greater coverage, profile interest groups and identify features of visions and resilience.
One quantitative measure of the qualitative data categories was executed as a check on coverage of data reported in the results section; concepts derived from interviews were ranked by frequency of discussion by respondent. (See Appendix C.) The most-frequently raised topics were reported in the results section and given more consideration in analysis for theme creation. Of the total of 397 concepts identified from the primary data documents, thirty of these had frequencies of four or more respondents and another thirty had a frequency of three. Bias was considered for topics raised by the interviewer. This quantitative exercise was but one input in the overall analysis of the qualitative data.
Given the lack of standard rules for performing qualitative analysis (Bryman and Bell 2003, Patton 2002), an ‘ad hoc tactics’ approach for meaning analysis (Kvale 1996) was undertaken. Data were analyzed in a variety of ways to elicit greater understanding. Emergent themes and connections were organized into vision-building and future vision categories. Visions were further organized according to the three pillars of sustainability – economics, society and environment. Data was presented with respect to “balanced analytic description” (Lofland 1971), utilizing both analyzed concepts and descriptive richness. Narratives for deeper meaning and illustrative quotations were mined from transcripts. Critical analysis of Kiruna’s adaptive capacity was performed by comparison to 70 parameters from syntheses on mining sustainability, mining relocations, resilience-building, transformations and disaster recovery from published literature. A value of positive or negative influence on Kiruna’s future sustainability was qualitatively assigned where discernable. (See Appendix D.) Uncertainty and externalities were identified and four future scenarios were developed to illuminate potential trajectories for the community.
19 Bias One perceived source of bias in these investigations regarded limitations from language and intercultural differences. Mostly secondary sources in English were employed, although certain important secondary materials and summaries of reports were translated from Swedish. Interview subjects were offered the option to express themselves in Swedish; only an occasional singular word was stated in Swedish and translated later, except in one case where short passages of the recorded interview were stated in Swedish and translated later by a third party for transcription.
The investigator’s few years experience living in Sweden was presumed to reduce intercultural bias, which was still accounted for, particularly in semantics and the potency of the choice of translated words used by respondents. Conservative interpretation of meaning was employed in cases of possible multiple or confused intentions from transliterations or inappropriate word choice in English. Some misinterpretation of meaning was possible, although respondents had the option to say passages in Swedish that were translated later and the interview recordings were reviewed carefully during transcription.
Time limitations for this study precluded arranging a greater number of interviews or the use of surveys. Preliminary findings of a citizen survey conducted by the municipality and a high school survey by the county museum were acquired and incorporated into the analysis. Limited time availability of certain respondents given work responsibilities reduced data- gathering opportunities. However, a minimum of one-and-a-half hours of interview time was achieved with each of Kiruna’s key interest areas. Time and budget limitations demanded concerted data-gathering efforts in two focused visits to Kiruna with full schedules of interviews and site visits.
Selection of only one key individual to interview from each interest area may have precluded data collection from other informative individuals within the same sectors, although important exploratory interviews with other contacts within those sectors were carried out. Other stakeholder groups like city property owners, municipal politicians or mineworkers could have been investigated but time limitations precluded development of a large number of interest groups. The six interest areas represent the three prominent industries, the one indigenous group, a recreation category deemed of high importance and the local government.
20 The use of flexibility in question formulation in addressing predetermined themes in the interview structure created potential bias in the form of potential unintentionally-omitted topics or elicitation of responses from different perspectives by different subjects (Patton 2002). The incorporation of a more standardized line of questioning on visioning within the semi-structured interview format created potential bias in terms of limiting flexibility of the interview dynamic.
Coding of data from interview transcripts presented a more fragmented and de-contextualized representation of respondents’ views (Bryman and Bell 2003) but was important for seeking emergent themes. Use of several analysis forms, while providing opportunity for creative theme and pattern recognition, may have detracted from more in-depth use of one particular method.
Sampling error from a limited time period of study created potential bias. Despite potential sampling error in selection of people, the respondents identified were considered highly representative of the community’s main interest areas. Lack of possibility of triangulation by multiple observers for this study and potential evaluator effects created investigator bias, despite efforts to maintain objective ethical research methods. Interviewees may have presented interview information in a biased or protected manner. The mining company which had gotten bad press about its poor relations with the town, presented a more political impression than the neutral tourism and space interests, or the indigenous people or outdoor recreation interests which perhaps found opportunity to stand up for their interests.
Data Results In the face of impending change, Kiruna’s community has responded by beginning certain necessary processes, promoting independent interests and building future visions. The municipal government has made certain time-driven decisions, begun spatial planning for a new city, created scenarios of disturbance, selected a site for the new city center, developed and approved a master overview plan, produced a general vision, and carried out requirements for public participation. National infrastructure has begun to be moved and horizontal governance structures have been formed including a high level board. Some of the community’s stakeholders could be seen as promoting their own interests.
21 LKAB in anticipation of continued operations is investing heavily. It widely released its own vision statement influencing site selection for the new city. Some of its actions stirred conflict with the local government over authority and planning rights. The more-independent industries, space and tourism, hold relatively neutral positions on the relocation while maintaining their visions and business strategies. The more marginalized group, the Samis, have recently come together to build stronger political representation to defend their interests.
Unified vision is not in evidence in the community. No unified vision for a new city exists because of insufficient information and poor cooperation between the mine and the town. An integrated sense of community for unified vision-building is not apparent, given persistent land use conflicts, diverse economic interests and cultural differences. While unified vision may not be possible, stakeholders maintain their own visions, some of which overlap. These visions were determined to belong to one of five categories: maintaining status quo, pre- existing visions, addressing change, using change as opportunity and potential idealizations. Change was perceived as opportunity to create an improved environmentally-conscious city but also to promote self-interest.
Collaborative arenas show potential for community-unifying synergies. Improved relations have been reported from simple cooperative processes and local face-to-face interactions were recognized as important. Relocation processes as an arena seem to have failed bringing people together, given power dynamics, weak public participation and exclusion of parties. Expansion of the municipality’s biosphere reserve is one potential arena for community- building.
Kiruna’s adaptive capacity to change was assessed relative to published syntheses of other cases, with a moderate result. Several features important for facing change in other cases were found lacking and are reported below and in Appendix D.
Emergent themes important to respondents for achieving a sustainable future in time of impending change were evident from qualitative data analyses. The diverse interests of Kiruna’s community expressed features important for developing vision in the pre- disturbance period, including community-unifying elements necessary for shared vision. With respect to facing change, visions for future outcomes for the city and actions necessary to achieve them were being developed. The diverse interests of the community, more than
22 constructing one unified future vision, hold a set of overlapping visions - for economic, social and environmental sustainability - and ideas of the practices necessary to achieve them. (See results in Table 3.)
Maintaining mining enterprise, national economic interests and valued arctic ecosystem services for recreation, tourism and reindeer work could be identified as status quo vision components. Reducing emigration of young adults and supporting a diversified economy, particularly with increased tourism, were categorized as pre-existing community visions independent of change. Accomplishing a successful relocation and maintaining citizen morale were visions identified for addressing change. Creating an improved and innovative city out of the relocation and increasing environmental ideals were components of future visions potentially seeing change as opportunity. While achieving a more unified community may be a goal for some, it could be considered an idealized vision given the diverse interests and cultural dynamics.
Data are presented below according to analytic categories of vision-building measures and visions of economic, social and environmental sustainability, as structured in Table 3.
Features for Developing Unified Vision In the pre-disturbance period, planning processes for the relocation were in motion despite lack of clear unified vision. The data from Kiruna respondents show that development of a vision for orchestrating adaptive capacities for change depends on important features of cooperation, communication, information flow, managed temporal scales and power relations, and governance structures.
Poor relations between the mine and the town in the early stages of the long relocation process did not bode well for building a unified vision and highlight the importance of cooperation. Cooperation, a community-unifying feature for building joint vision, was identified by respondents as being fostered through trust-building, transparency, conflict resolution, collaborative arenas and democratic processes.
23 Table 3. Results from Respondents Interview results were organized as features necessary for developing unified vision, visions for the future and the actions seen necessary to achieve visions. Visions for the future are organized here within the three familiar dimensions of sustainability – economic, social and environmental.
VISIONS VISION-GUIDED ACTIONS Economic Sustainability Mining Jobs maintain mining into future Contribution to National Interest relocation of city
Diverse Economies and Jobs tourism joint ventures support increased tourism increased tourism infrastructure - flights, hotels Kiruna recognition abroad healthy ecosystems for tourism image FEATURES FOR Tax revenue maintain population and industry base DEVELOPING Social Sustainability UNIFIED VISION Quality of Life innovative city planning and site selection Cooperation successful relocation well-functioning city during transition trust attractive innovative city historic and cultural values transparency landscape elements, green spaces resolve planning conflicts improved city center resolve competing visions modern building and moving technologies democratic processes convenient transportation, service access build unified vision ideas from youth collaborative arenas private investment facilitated use original vision of Kiruna as model society Communication obtain financial commitments for relocation relevant information flows community responsibility by mining co. and state correct misinformation Morale manage relocation temporal scale abstraction advertise vision fair compensation for "direct effects" of mining public awareness compensation for "indirect effects" investor signals signs of progress / smooth transition period no infrastructure disruptions Retain Youth Sector provide jobs, training and education Information involve in relocation and vision plans info inputs for vision planning Outdoor Recreation access to outdoor recreation passions informed decision-makers Unified Community collaborative synergies resolve planning/power conflicts Timing recognition of indigenous peoples avoid premature vision release resolve land use conflicts time pressures acknowledge different landscape perceptions manage time scale abstraction involve parties at start of new developments local level personal interactions Power Relations Environmental Sustainability transparent processes needed Image as Ecological Community increase municipality's environmental actions Image of Pure Nature sustain environmentally-clean mining activities Governance manage wastewater treatment and pipes facilitate processes global change conference; MAB biosphere reserve steering boards at different levels climate-adapted city design connect politicians and workers energy-efficient systems recycled materials from old city Sustainable Reindeer Habitats respect Sami needs / communicate resolve land use conflicts Sustainable Fish and Game increase environmental ethic of users address governance scale mismatches monitor climate change effects Environmental Protection balance land use and conservation needs extend MAB Biosphere Reserve manage opposition to restrictions on use include local Sami ecological knowledge work with support of Icehotel
24 The mining company, in wielding power to influence city planning decisions from its business goals instead of from societal perspectives spurred conflict with Kiruna’s local authority, according to respondents, and documented in the press (Martinsson 2006) and in university studies (Gimberger and Norberg 2006, Nilsson 2007). Nilsson (2007) holds that the two entities negotiate much more than they cooperate. Government personnel spoke of trust issues and questioned the transparency of intention of the mining company: “LKAB drives a hard bargain.” “I don’t think they really want to understand.” “I don’t believe LKAB at any minute.” LKAB itself acknowledged and questioned its reputation: I don’t know why people around us think we are not working together. Why are they thinking that? For me, I had the feeling that we are working a lot together. If you’re going to succeed with a big project like that, then you really must work together.
Resolving conflict between LKAB, which will introduce major disturbance to the society, and Kiruna Kommun which will orchestrate adaptive capacities, is essential for building a unified vision for Kiruna’s future. The mining company’s unannounced wide release of its private vision for the future challenged planning authority and created public confusion. Damage control was an important first step in moving forward, as Kiruna Kommun detailed: LKAB has great influence, has great power, economical power here in Kiruna. That’s why they also think they have the right to impose ideas and to have an impact, an opinion about the city. We have this material from LKAB, this vision and it confuses people. People don’t really know who runs the process, many people think it’s LKAB, that it alone is responsible for the planning. They went out with this vision in a very wide gesture, and many people, especially the media, mixed it up. We didn’t even have the chance to make our own project for this (Northwest) area since they already had told us that it’s not possible to use. And suddenly, whoops there was a vision focused exactly on those areas which wouldn’t, according to them a half year earlier, have been suitable or possible. It made people a bit confused and was a drawback for our process, because I know many people in Kiruna then said, okay LKAB came up with a vision; it will be as LKAB decides, as it always happens.
LKAB acknowledges that relocation planning is the exclusive monopoly of the local authority; its vision campaign was seen as a political tool to influence site selection for the new city.
In addition to this problematic conflict between power and authority, the data show one other significant general area of conflict within the municipality. Various landscape use activities conflict with Sami reindeer husbandry needs. Better trust relations are needed here as well; both from the Samis with a history of Swedish colonialism and a mistrust of authority from a
25 perceived inadequate appreciation of Sami needs, and from those who suspect the Samis are exaggerating or misrepresenting their needs.
Several respondents indicated the importance of local-scale, face-to-face interactions in order to build cooperation. Simply the planning of a now-delayed Sami Parliament building has built better ties between the Sami community and the local government. Relocation planning processes themselves present collaborative arenas, as do discussions to expand Kiruna’s UNESCO biosphere reserve, although respondents note certain skepticism. Tourism joint ventures represent synergies for cooperation-building. The popular Icehotel organizes activities with the Sami, space and mining sectors. Spaceport Sweden, a new space-tourism collaboration, connects Kiruna’s rocket range, airport, and tourism and business networks, with intentions of offering suborbital space flights to tourist-astronauts beginning in 2012. The Icehotel and mining company are becoming more connected, with shared ‘technical tours’ for corporations and addition of magnetite sculptures to the hotel’s ice art.
Public participation in relocation processes has been remarkably weak. Despite public meetings, displays at city hall, comment periods, and a citizen survey of new city visions, a failure of democracy could be suggested. Unlike local government administrators, the general public seems to have nearly blind trust in LKAB, with the attitude “as long as the mine goes well, then we can fix everything”, potential reason for non-involvement.
The democratic processes of public participation were carried out according to the minimum standards set by Sweden’s Planning and Building Act (Kiruna 2007). Such processes have been criticized as more rhetoric than substance in Sweden by one university study (Henecke and Khan 2002). One interview respondent joked that democracy might be overrated, highlighting the complexity of the relocation, and suggested that singular decision-making like that made in the creation of the city might offer an easier path to change.
Communication, an important theme in developing and promoting vision, was seen by respondents to be achieved through appropriate information flows and by correcting misconceptions, resulting in greater public awareness and clearer investor signals. Both the mining company and local government cited the importance of communication, yet referred more to telling people what was going to happen rather than indicating a reciprocal flow of
26 information. Potentially LKAB sees communication as a one-way telling-to from its historical power position and Kiruna Kommun from weak public participation. LKAB: If you look at this project, this is a big information project. The most important thing is to tell the people what is going to be happening or when it happens.
Thomas Nylund, Kiruna Kommun: I think it’s two-way communication. On one hand, it’s important to keep people informed so that it doesn’t come as a surprise when we start to plan for new parts of Kiruna and eventually buildings will be physically moved. It’s a very important part of this process to keep people informed. Although it’s a very difficult part as well, to reach out to people, because so far people haven’t really been engaged at all, almost as if they didn’t take this too seriously.
Time scales are important as well, as Nylund continues: (The relocation) is really hard to take seriously when much of what’s going to happen is far in the future, and if we are addressing young people, because they are the ones that will eventually be spending their lives in the new Kiruna, it’s particularly important to reach them and have their opinions, but they don’t think the future in that way.
Temporal scale abstractions are indeed one problem in mustering community participation; people are not programmed to think many decades ahead. Young people in particular have a hard time thinking forward, yet they may live their entire lives in a transition period. On the shorter end of the temporal scale, decision-making at both Kiruna Kommun and LKAB has been called into question as being carried out too quickly and without availability of relevant information, a result of politics and time pressures.
Importantly, viable planning visions can not be realistically created or communicated until certain information inputs have been made to the planning process. In particular, uncertainty regarding the geological stability of the area selected by the politicians for the new city must be eliminated before plans can proceed.
In addition to one-way communication issues, LKAB respondents indicated that parties weren’t listening, particularly when told of the coming deformation disturbance. Printed articles as early as 1978 warned the town. Recently the national road authority installed a new stretch of E10 highway, which will soon need relocation.
Misconceptions appear to exist in the community with people holding varying views on the extent and timeframe of the relocation, a result of low involvement and LKAB’s vision campaign. The tourist information office hands out the mining company’s vision statement as
27 doctrine, although LKAB has retracted its position on the creative plan (which included visions of indoor rainforests in old mining pits) saying it was just a way to highlight possibilities for the ‘Northwest Alternative’ selected for the new city. The vision was seen as a political vehicle.
While Kiruna Kommun has responsibility to direct construction of the new city, it sees the need to provide clear signals to investors so that private development can help nurture the changing city as well. Investor decisions importantly influence further investment and help the city to self-organize. Without clear viable vision in the early stages of the planning process, investors remain uncertain how to act and city development stagnates. Selection by politicians of the Northwest Alternative four kilometers away will not necessarily attract investors who perceive distance issues and people flows, and will wait to see how things develop. To not inhibit investment in the changing city, the municipality plans to spread the risks of site selection and permit housing development in the ‘Northeast Alternative’, although that area may be affected by encroaching mining some eighty years ahead. LKAB appears reluctant to support any new building given future prospects of having to move it: “let’s not construct new problems for coming generations.”
Once necessary information is developed, a future vision for the new city plan can be built and communicated. Kiruna Kommun’s head planner is intent on presenting a viable vision: I don’t think it’s a good idea to be too hasty and quick and develop a vision that later on proves out to not be feasible. We should be careful that we don’t create true fantasies. Other parties can do that, but we can’t afford to lose the confidence of the people.
Evident in the power politics between the mine and the town are the important influences that power relations and governance play in directing change and building vision for a sustainable future. Given the level of change being imposed on the city, the official authority may be confronting the de facto authority in new ways. The local government authority is ultimately politically subordinate to the mine’s owner, the national government.
In addition to these power relations, an obvious divide exists within the local municipal government itself between the politicians who make the decisions and the administration staff which carries out the work, further complicating local governance potential: It’s always the case that politicians have one way and the people that work with the real questions, real things, that have an inside view of projects and questions, have another view
28 and priorities. There’s always a bit of a struggle between the people who work hands on and the politicians who make the decisions.
Besides a few full-time politicians, members of the town council hold other jobs in the community while representing political parties in municipal matters: (The politicians) sense they’re a little out of control versus the administration, because they don’t have the direct view or competence. There’s always a certain gap between the administrators and politicians.”
Three collaborative steering and working boards were established at three different governance levels to coordinate relocation of the city and national infrastructure, comprised of LKAB and governmental department employees at respective hierarchies.
Visions and Vision-Guided Practices Future visions, components of economic, social and environmental sustainability, were offered by respondents, as were vision-guided actions or practices seen necessary to achieve the vision components. (See Table 3.) Sustainable development and a trans-generational perspective are represented in the municipality’s ‘Kiruna 2099’ general vision statement (Kiruna 2006); visions from respondents are accordingly presented here within the three customary dimensions of sustainable development -- economics, society and environment.
Visions for Economic Sustainability Vision to continue mining assures Kiruna economic vitality. Deformation of the city is seen as a necessary means to sustain mining jobs and national interests. The community has experienced periods of expansion and contraction during its history, related to mining industry trends, production levels and automation. LKAB supports 1800 regular employees in Kiruna in 2007, as opposed to about 4000 in 1958.
Sweden’s official national interests, riksintressen, protect natural, economic and cultural values and include infrastructure, mining, reindeer and environmental protection in Kiruna (Kiruna 2006). The Mining Inspectorate of Sweden’s webpage states that “exploitation of minerals is in the national interest” supporting society needs, regional employment, an export basis, and taxes and duties (Hedstrom 2007).
LKAB is a highly profitable and powerful enterprise, investing heavily in current times of high international iron prices. The company is well-supported by Kiruna’s population and many townspeople are connected to the mine in some way. While LKAB originally built the
29 town as a model community to support its workers’ quality of life, some respondents note a more business-first attitude at present. LKAB, however, supports development of Kiruna’s diversified economies, as Olle Norberg, Director of Esrange, noted: It’s really appreciated that LKAB take a position in business development. I think they should, I mean they’re a very large company. It’s in their interest that things are developing overall – anything from culture to business and schools, they benefit if this is increasing. We all do, of course.
Kiruna has evolved from a one-resource rural town to a modern society with a few extremely diverse interests. Esrange, the civilian rocket launch facility, (state-owned like LKAB, but with far fewer profits) and IRF, the Swedish Institute of Space Physics, employ 180 and 110 people, respectively. This industry has gradual growth punctuated with spurts of development. Esrange shares its 6,500-square kilometer rocket range with four samebys and reports excellent relations with three of these reindeer-herding groups, some relationships going back forty years. By always employing their right of refusal over new development in their huge rocket range, Esrange has de facto helped maintain a large, mostly undeveloped landscape in Sweden’s north. Space tourism collaborations are leading Esrange in new directions.
Perhaps Scandinavia’s best-known entity, the Icehotel employs 110 workers and creates synergies with other companies to share its customer base. It importantly inspires other tourism. The innovative enterprise with low repeat business plays an important role in introducing new visitors to Kiruna. Supporting a growing tourism sector is an existing Figure 1. Planned Disturbance and Sustainability in Kiruna Continued mining creates disturbance requiring adaptive capacity vision of economic to maintain an attractive city for social sustainability
Advisory Boards sustainability for Kiruna. The Kiruna Governance Kommun planning SWE Icehotel’s founder projects that own own disturbance tourism will double in the near M Snowmobilers Youth Space Economic I Social Sustainability Adaptive N $ Sustainability future, held back in part by the Capacity / attractive E Relocation city Sami availability of airline flights. Tourism pristine recreationhabitats arctic Environmental However, direct flights from reindeer Sustainability London and Copenhagen are starting. Several respondents noted that Kiruna is becoming
30 much more interesting to visitors because of increased awareness of winter arctic tourism, the Icehotel, Spaceport Sweden and the unique relocation.
Visions for Social Sustainability Visions for Kiruna’s social sustainability reported by respondents include a successful relocation, maintaining both morale and an attractive living environment during a long transition, retaining the youth sector, and assuring continued access to outdoor recreation opportunities. Confidence in Kiruna’s adaptive capacity to maintain an attractive city and social sustainability allows planned disturbance from mining for continuing economic sustainability. (See Figure 1.)
A successful relocation process to uphold quality of life standards is challenged by several factors, including: uncertainties about the extent and duration of disturbance to the town, uncertainties about site selection feasibility, the need to move a town center, time-pressured decision-making, a long transition period, undefined financial commitments, and conflict between the mine and town. Future vision for the relocated city sees a modern ecologically- designed settlement, well-integrated into the landscape, paying tribute to its history and accommodating social flows. Preliminary results from a citizen survey indicate desire for green spaces, views, an improved city center and historic-style buildings.
Preservation of certain buildings seems evident. ‘Sense of place’ values are important for carrying on Kiruna’s cultural and sentimental legacy. An LKAB representative recognizes these sentimental attachments explicitly: “It was when I talked to the vicar, when we talked about moving the church, he said: to move the church physically it’s not a problem, but how do you move the experiences of the people…so it is connected to the place, not the building.”
The town of Kiruna has a rich history as a well-planned model community for miners, with rich architectural and urban planning legacies. A photo archive with 600 historical photos from the city’s origins helps maintain a historical sense and connection to place.
With deformation approaching public infrastructure requires attention, including the town’s wastewater pipes: “Otherwise, the society will be broken very quickly, because things will happen and the pipes will go first” noted the Icehotel which is located downriver from the town. A new power station is being built and the national highway soon needs rerouting. New routing for the railroad became a major issue in site selection for the relocation. Rail
31 plays a crucial link for LKAB in getting its products to market. The national railroad authority ultimately decided against LKAB’s preference for the railway, despite the company’s efforts to promote it. Successful reconstruction of infrastructure without interruption is one step in maintaining morale in the face of change.
Community morale can be kept high according to respondents by assuring: fair compensation for those affected by the relocation, compensation for “indirect effects” not implicitly covered by Sweden’s Minerals Act, signs of progress, a smooth transition period, resolution of temporal scale abstractions and mitigation of quality of life changes.
A smaller but parallel mining relocation situation involving LKAB is occurring 110 kilometers south of the town of Kiruna, in the municipality of Gällivare, at Malmberget. This case should be an important lesson for Kiruna citizens to watch, as it is happening ahead of Kiruna’s changes. Malmberget is situated in and around twenty separate ore bodies in comparison to Kiruna’s singular lode. A canyon opened up in the middle of Malmberget forcing evacuations. Relocations in phases have been occurring. More frequent seismic events, dust, other unpleasant side-effects of mining and LKAB’s slow purchase of homes at fair prices have created low morale and increasing social movement. In particular, people with properties just adjacent to official deformation zones are most affected, least compensated and most unhappy.
LKAB has stated that Kiruna will be handled better. Malmberget’s Cultural Secretary warns that the same conditions occurring in his area will happen in Kiruna in ten years time. LKAB describes the “mini-earthquakes” expected in Kiruna as well: It must be quite uncomfortable, even though there’s no danger. There’s no risk of someone falling down into a cavity. It’s been around ever since we started mining underground, it’s been stronger and it’s been recognized more in the papers. But it will and it has happened here in Kiruna as well. It will happen here as well…
The geologic instability experienced in Malmberget could become an addition to blasts made in the Kiruna mine each morning at 1:20, which shake the ground and wake citizens. LKAB: The farther north we are blasting the stronger you can feel it in town. And there also have been vibrations because of tensions shifting in the rock, like mini-earthquakes. (People) feel unsafe which is kind of sad, because there is no risk. We have tried. We have information meetings once in a while, and we go through the papers and through the radio. You have to tell everyone exactly what the orebodies look like in Malmberget. It’s a different situation there. I’m not sure if the shakings will be as strong here as in Malmberget because the orebodies look different.
32 Table 4. Potential Direct and Indirect Effects of Mining, Deformation and Displacement in Kiruna The Swedish Minerals Act of 1988 calls Lessons from Malmberget for reimbursement of the ‘direct effects’ Potential Direct Effects of mining activities. However, there are for properties in official deformation zone compensation or relocation many potential ‘indirect effects’ or ‘soft
Potential Indirect Effects / Soft Values values’ for which there is no legal for properties adjacent to official deformation areas no compensation or relocation options responsibility. (See Table 4.) How far dust LKAB will go to compensate those not seismic activity, shaking ground cracks in houses in the official deformation zone who depressed property value neighborhood decline experience property value losses or for renters in official deformation area higher monthly rents from relocation into new buildings suffer from psychological distances to a for relocatees in general broken social networks mining area, will determine morale and loss of sense of place success of the community transition. decreased access to services greater driving distances
Some Kiruna citizens may live most of their lives during a relocation transition period. Some projections show a continuous wave of deformation through the city late into the century. A succession of initial successes to show progress will help morale. It may prove hard for citizens to resolve the abstraction of a decades-long relocation and its effect on their lives; single family homes are paid off in 30 years, so a relocation possibility 70 years ahead may not be comprehended. The relocation may proceed at possibly too slow a scale for some.
One critical gap in the demographics of Kiruna is young adults, in particular young women. Young people pursue education and employment opportunities outside the municipality and it appears difficult to entice them back. Many of Kiruna’s jobs, in high-tech mining, reindeer- herding and rocket science, demand specialized skills or cultural channels not available to all. While some access to training exists, including a space science campus and a fledgling high school mining program, technical skills can be recruited from outside. The outflow of youth has been cited as a key social factor limiting community sustainability.
Given how diverse and independent the various interests in Kiruna are, vision of a unified community and therefore unified vision for Kiruna may be more of an ideal than a reality. Collaborative tourism synergies are one way to build relationships and social capital necessary to manage change, however:
33 Of course, it’s easy to cooperate when you see a lot of economical gain from it. It’s more difficult when it comes to Sami reindeer herding and Sami cultural questions because there are no big economical values in it. It doesn’t give the community enough, you’d think. The Sami are seeking greater representation of their needs, particularly for reindeer husbandry which operates over the landscape and conflicts at different scales with snowmobiling, hunting, fishing, rockets, tourism and environmental protectionism interests.
The state of Sweden has been reluctant to sign United Nations convention ILO 169 which recognizes the rights of indigenous peoples. While the Samis in Lapland and Kiruna are hailed as Europe’s only indigenous peoples, local political pressure from snowmobiling and development interests that conflict with Sami reindeer needs counter international pressures on Sweden to accept recognition. The Sami Parliament cites the possibility that Sweden would be required to share mineral rights were it to sign (Sami 2007). Ragnhild Svonni, Sami political representative in Kiruna affirms: The most important thing is to be recognized in your community where you live, that your needs are accepted and taken care of within the terms of what the community can do…that the Sami community is a natural part of the community.
Cultural acceptance, inclusion in community planning processes, greater respect of needs, and resolution of land use conflicts through local level relationship-building and involvement in plans for new developments, are seen by Samis as visions important for respecting “the Sami question” and building a more unified sense of community. Samebys with reindeer migration corridors adjacent to Kiruna may be the most spatially-affected parties by the relocation.
Visions for Environmental Sustainability Kiruna’s socioeconomic sustainability is very much perpetuated by environmental sustainability and healthy ecosystems which assure a flow of ecosystem services for reindeer husbandry, tourism and highly-valued recreational opportunities. Studies show that people in arctic communities can hold particularly strong attachment to their surrounding natural environment (Kaltenborn 1998). One of the greatest reasons people live in Kiruna is the availability of outdoor arctic recreation: People in Kiruna really enjoy being out in the countryside – skiing or snowmobiling and going fishing. Most of the people have some kind of cabin or a summerhouse or something.
To be able to go out up in the mountains, to go to your cabin, because people who live here need that, that’s one of the most important things – the ability to go up into the mountains, to drive snowmobiles, to hunt and to fish, that is one of the most important things why we live here, why we choose to live in Kiruna, and so you get a lot of votes if you are positive to that, you know to hunting and fishing and to snowmobiles.
34 Snowmobiling in particular appears to be a special passion for Kirunese; there are 8200 snowmobiles, about one for every three people. With permission of the municipality, Samis close areas to snowmobile activity during sensitive periods for reindeer.
Landscape Perceptions Perception of Kiruna as Europe’s last wilderness by tourism promoters directly conflicts with the claim that it is Sami cultural landscape which has been continuously modified by the reindeer and people of Lapland. The mining company sees a commodity production landscape; Kiruna inhabitants see a recreation playground with hunting, fishing and snowmobiling opportunities; space science has perception of large empty space for rocket motors and payloads to fall down. The government authority sees its jurisdictional geography and speaks of sustainability.
Kiruna’s mayor is intent on hosting a high-profile global change conference in the near future. The municipality seeks an environmental reputation, but several respondents claimed that it had not come far enough in terms of plans or actions for environmental sustainability: We talk that we want to protect the environment and be environmental(ly) friendly and to recycle and to build a society that is sustainable. On the other hand, it’s a political dilemma. You don’t want to take these tough decisions to make it environmental(ly) friendly, because (there are) some people who feel it affects the way to live.
While mining can often inflict environmental damage (Diamond 2005), LKAB’s operations are considered relatively clean, particularly by the Icehotel which thrives on an image of a clean environment and sits downriver of the mine. LKAB offers evidence that you can still catch and eat fish in the local lake after a hundred years of mining. Appropriation of this lake by LKAB is a reality however; the southern end has been drained for mining purposes and more of it may be claimed. The relocation portends to put more pressure on the northern end of the lake as the city is planned to move out that way.
Respondents said that governance scales over resources needed better correlation. EU pressure on Sweden to allow Norwegian hunters in before their season opens may pressure Swedish ptarmigan, Lagopus mutus, populations. Licensing authority for hunting and fishing in Kiruna municipality was moved out to the county level in 1994, creating greater distance between administration of the resource and its users. Funds once used to seed rivers with fish are used for county administrative purposes. Sami area closures that once were coordinated locally go through higher governance levels without the benefit of interpersonal relationships, to the detriment of the land conflict issues.
35 Environmental Protection and Reserves Achieving balance between conservation and land use is complicated. The hunting and fishing association strongly opposed a proposed Kiruna National Park that would have greatly reduced the group’s ability to pursue its passions: We didn’t like the idea at all. We saw it as a threat, a big threat against our big interests – hunting and fishing. It would only be like a park for tourists to show up. They said some sort of fishing and hunting would be permitted but they wouldn’t specify.
The Samis are also opposed to protected areas with potential restrictions on activities. Kiruna Kommun is seeking to expand its UNESCO Biosphere Reserve to also include the Torne River catchment where the Icehotel is located. Suspicion of restrictions on land use could hinder plans despite the international status of the biosphere designation.
Discussion
In Kiruna, diverse interests and power relations appear to preclude formation of a singular vision from which to enter a period of change. Individual societal interests brandish their own visions in the face of change. An imbalanced community structure and apparent lack of visionary leadership yet to rise from the groundswell of relocation processes means Kiruna is heading forward without a precise map.
What has been determined is that disturbance is coming as mining uproots the city above it. Planning processes are underway and visions for a transplanted city are being sketched although relations between the principal players, the mining company and the local government have been problematic. In particular, LKAB’s use of a vision campaign for political influence was destructive to cooperation, and apparently not unique in planning processes (Hurley and Walker 2004). Land use conflicts continue to drive the community apart. Within this environment unified vision for managing change and approaching the future has not evolved. Stakeholders perceive necessary measures for developing vision and unifying the community but remain at a distance from pursuing these goals.
Particular dimensions of future sustainability exist in visions the community holds for facing change, maintaining current regime characteristics and directing change as opportunity. Stakeholders have responded to the air of change by taking protectionist, opportunist and
36 interested bystander positions. The upcoming transition has stirred parts of the community into promoting their interests more, out of either perceived necessity or opportunity. As the society prepares for change, some stakeholders are standing up higher for their ideals; grab your valuables and get out from the fire. Recently-gained entry of Sami political presence on Kiruna’s town council derived from a perceived need to come together in the face of “all the changes” and “that the community didn’t take the Sami question seriously enough.”
Periods of change can pose opportunity as opportunism (Vale and Campanella 2005) and stakeholders may be protecting their interests relative to potential actions of others who see the release of stability as opportunity to reorganize in their interest. For Kiruna, key players in the relocation -- various government agencies and the mining company -- have indeed been characterized as promoting their own interests, coming to the table from a position of negotiation rather than cooperation: In Kiruna…(e)ach actor seems to have built a strong institution of their own organization in a way that hinders joint visions and actions with other actors. (Nilsson 2007:8)
In addition to this less-than cooperative positioning, Kiruna’s diverse economic interests – mining, rockets, reindeer and tourists - present less interdependence than might be required for a community to build unified vision. Brown, et al. (2002) note that Alaskans in their study related the concept of community to a spatial context of local values and attitudes. Contrasting concurrent perceptions of Kiruna’s arctic landscape as pristine wilderness, Sami reindeer-modified habitat and recreation playground does not build community structure readily.
The Samis represent a community with another laid on top: “Of course we are assimilated because we live in Swedish society, but we do have our traditional culture.” As Cohen (1985:98) illuminates: “People cannot strip themselves of their cultural equipment to step socially naked into neutral space. Rather, they view it, interpret it, from their own cultural perspectives.” So from both spatial values and cultural perspectives, Kiruna’s community will remain one of shared differences. Adding a relationship with power to this spatialized sense of culture (Gupta and Ferguson 1997) offers greater depth of understanding to the community structure. Given a disaggregate community which challenges development of a unified future vision, power relations portend to dictate direction of change.
37 Whereas unified vision is seen as a key value in managing and transforming social ecological systems and business organizations (Kotter 1995, Olsson, et al. 2006, Westley 1995), perhaps unified vision is not possible or wholly necessary for some communities and visions for the future can exist at different scales for different players. Certain aspects of an adapting social system require singular vision, such as design of neighborhoods to replace those destabilized by mining; and these visions can arrive from democratic process or mandate of authority. A few collaborative arenas show promise to unify, while some tough conflicts ensue. Unified vision if not directed by community accord, would otherwise require visionary leadership or result from influence, if not authority.
With the state of Sweden as owner of the mining company, alignment of national and local government values is important for Kiruna’s relocation. National and local governance need to be in accord on issues, or at least have understanding of each other’s positions. Cumming, et al. (2006:8) observe that: Centralized institutions frequently lack the necessary multiscale outlook and associated flexibility to solve unusual problems or those that occur at scales that they are not used to considering. The higher levels of centralized government are typically based in the capital city, and the decision makers with the most power are often unaware of the true situation “on the ground” in each of the localities under their administration.
The person “on the ground” juggling most of the complexity of the relocation planning, Thomas Nylund of Kiruna Kommun, recognizes this mismatch of scales: “It’s always been a little bit of a Stockholm perspective. They see the big city problems rather than the conditions of this part of the country, especially a small industrial town like Kiruna.”
Respecting national interest acknowledges this necessity of a governance scale mismatch over the iron ore resource. A certain degree of nationalistic pride in providing national mineral wealth was observed in LKAB employees. Relocation of the town of Kiruna could be said to be of national economic interest.
Establishment of the three steering and working groups for the relocation, each with executives and government employees at the same hierarchy levels, makes for good horizontal integration, but inherently lacks important vertical linkages that would help bring the state, county and local scales together. Horizontal linkages are needed at the local level to bridge the gulf in the municipal government between the administrative workers and the local politicians who are influenced by the national political parties they represent. An interesting set of triangular relationships exist between the local politicians, the influential state-owned
38 mine, and the national government, and between the local administrators who work for the local politicians and work with the mine on the relocation. Decision-making for the relocation, to build resilience for change, must reflect balance between politics and good information. A new entrant on city council notes, however: “You know it’s an old system with old values, and you don’t change it that fast.”
Various syntheses of social ecological systems (Folke 2005, Olsson, et al. 2006), mining displacements (Downing 2002), sustainable mining communities (Hodge 2004, Veiga 2001), business transformations (Kotter 1995) and disaster recoveries (Vale and Campanella 2005) offer recommendations that allow us to assess Kiruna’s resilience for change. (See Appendix D.) These qualitative comparative values could be turned into a quantitative scorecard but more importantly this analysis highlights several areas needing attention: advance establishment of goals, cost estimates and financial responsibility (Downing 2002), public involvement, people-oriented goals and institutions for change (Hodge 2004), equitable partnerships, local capacity-building, shared decisions and community sustainability goals (Veiga 2001), managed scales and drivers (Folke 2005), shared vision, top-down change, cooperative channels, leadership, and flexibility in institutions and politics (Olsson, et al. 2006), empowered vision (Kotter 1995) and practical resilience narratives (Vale and Campanella 2005).
Analysis of respondent data affirmed some of these deficiencies, showing the need to increase resilience through: shared vision, cooperation in planning, alignment of governance scales, managing temporal scales, attention to land use conflicts, collaborative arenas, guiding leadership, greater public involvement, funding commitments and scenario planning.
In addition to absence of shared vision, the community suffers an apparent lack of visionary leadership. Olsson, et al (2006) suggest that actions for successful transformation of social ecological systems require leadership, shared vision and resilient processes. Despite new advisory boards, working groups and an involved set of local and national politicians, visionary and influential leadership is not apparent. Leadership to build shared vision across governance scales seems essential for directing change.
The Icehotel, with its tourism collaborations, could potentially act as a bridging organization (Hahn, et al. 2006) to connect players across scales and increase community cohesion. The
39 successful enterprise, however, is more of a magnet organization, attracting people to the region, while maintaining a strong business sense. Its incentive to actively engage stakeholders and build social capital is absent. Forty-percent of airplane arrivals to Kiruna visit the Icehotel and pictures of it fill the cover of popular travel guides (Ohlsen and Parnell 2006). The valuable function this internationally-known attraction plays in supporting Kiruna’s diversifying economy appears to earn it privileged position; despite talking collaboration and working with local Samis, the Icehotel is apparently not averse to going to court over plans for a new wilderness lodge opposed by other Samis. While not fulfilling this bridging role to support vision across scales, the Icehotel does remain a keystone player in the community, boosting the economy, building regional awareness, influencing ecological values and inspiring more enterprise. Inspired leadership is needed to stimulate the Icehotel to become more of a bridge than just magnet or keystone.
Certain stand-out individuals involved in the municipality and relocation present potential as guiding leaders -- a ministry department head at the national level, the local government’s architect/planner who serves as a clearinghouse for the relocation, and the well-respected director of the county museum -- however motivation to rise up is limited, perhaps by position, politics or power.
The founder of the Icehotel was previously an environmental officer for LKAB, highlighting collaborative forces within individuals who might wear multiple hats in a small community. Twenty percent of key respondents were identified as being associated with more than one concern, indicating potential for greater connectedness in the community.
Given a perceived lack of necessary leadership and issues of trust that accompany conflicts of authority and land use, collaborative arenas hold potential to build up important social capital. Collaborative arenas have the potential to galvanize community integration and vision- building through pursuit of common goals. Mutually beneficial tourism joint ventures and discussion over a now-delayed Sami Parliament are examples of fora that have brought actors together. Persistent land use conflicts while keeping people apart could be seen as opportunities to discuss differences. Some interview respondents welcomed, almost desperately, the opportunity to speak about conflicted resources they care about; platforms for discussion seem lacking.
40 One broad vision for synergizing cooperation and cohesion is for the municipality to apply to UNESCO for extension of its dormant biosphere reserve. International recognition for excellence in sustainable relations with the natural environment, simultaneously promoting biodiversity, development and cultural values (UNESCO 1995) would earn Kiruna greater recognition. The process of achieving this status would engage the whole community.
Obvious benefactors of a sustainability reputation are Kiruna Kommun which outwardly seeks an environmental image and the Icehotel that depends upon an image of pure nature. Although the landscape users -- Sami reindeer interests and snowmobile and hunting and fishing enthusiasts -- are traditionally suspicious of protected areas that might put restrictions on their activities, a carefully-planned strategy to raise awareness for such a collaborative project could succeed.
Hunting and fishing and Sami interests have opposed protected areas before. In addition to assurances that their activities wouldn’t be compromised, the Sami community would want to know explicitly how their cultural values and knowledge would be respected in a biosphere reserve, as expressed by their local political representative: “I think that’s the case for a lot of people here, they don’t really know what (a biosphere reserve) is, and how will they be a part of it. Sami, not all Sami of course, you can’t say all Sami people, but there’s some skepticism towards scientists and to science programs because it seems they don’t, you don’t, cooperate enough with the Sami community. You know you look top-down, so there’s always some kind of skepticism towards science programs. So if you want it to become an arena for people to come together, I think there’s a lot of work in the beginning.”
Extending the reserve to include the Torne River catchment would put the Icehotel and its image of pure ice within the biosphere boundaries, strategy for community support. The Kalix River catchment is perceived as too complicating because of necessary inclusion of LKAB’s mining activity. The mine however, has a reasonable environmental reputation (despite reclaiming parts of the local lake) and boasts low-polluting qualities of its high- quality iron products. UNESCO status could raise the mine’s sustainability goals, contributing towards more unified community vision.
Elmqvist, et al (2004) note unrealized potential in arctic regions for collaborations with resource industries and integration of local knowledge. A biosphere project with both LKAB and the Samis onboard would be a great achievement and bring the community closer together. While the Icehotel believes the municipality has been slow to act and the
41 municipality has expressed skepticism about convincing land users, a biosphere reserve exemplifies the type of arena needed to build social capital to bring communities together to address their future.
Kiruna Kommun sees opportunity to bolster its environmental reputation by aligning a sustainability conference with the relocation. A global-scale conference held locally could become a place to resolve local sustainability issues. The fact that several respondents stated that the municipality while talking environmentalism has not done enough in terms of taking action or creating plans for the environment appears problematic.
Mine and Society Kiruna retains strong dependence on its iron mine. Were the mine to close, population is estimated to drop by half to two-thirds. Freudenberg (1992) finds rural communities building near-addiction on their extractive industries, economic dependence a result of isolation, power relations and a lack of other economies. While Kiruna is well- connected and is growing its tourism and space industries, a deep historical symbiosis with the mine ensues, as evidenced by the faith people have in LKAB. Trust in the mining company derives from family histories of mine employment and its great economic importance to the region. Despite LKAB’s dismissal of the imaginative concepts in its publicized future vision as just ideas, people appear to support whatever plans the mining company holds for the community.
Mining automation over the years has significantly reduced the number of available jobs, however. After completion of LKAB’s new 6.4 billion SEK pelletizing plant in Kiruna, up to 120 jobs will be added. The Icehotel notes that it adds one job for every 2 million SEK of investment in tourism development. On an equivalent basis, LKAB would be adding 3200 jobs to the community, not 120.
LKAB continues to provide Kiruna with its economic base, in addition to supporting national economic interests. How much the mine depends on Kiruna, on the other hand, relates to the ability of the town to attract and support mineworkers and their families. Ultimately, the condition of the city during and after relocation may be determined not only by creative planning, but by levels of national economic interest and community responsibility assumed by the mining company and its owner the state, in the form of funding. Whatever capacity Kiruna can muster to deal with relocating neighborhoods will depend on sufficiency of
42 financial resources. How far beyond the interpreted letter of the law LKAB will go to compensate affected peoples will influence the trajectory of the relocation, morale and social sustainability.
The Swedish government receives over 3 billion SEK annually from LKAB. Respondents expressed the state’s continued interest in these cash flows. With some certainty, the ruling political parties in Sweden will turn over during the course of the many decades-long relocation, producing uncertainty as to the balance between profit-taking from the mine and community-building for Kiruna. Mining is in the national interest: There are different interests that have a government status – riksintressen. There are no guidelines if you have riksintressen overlapping each other, it’s not clear which one would be the most important, but it’s always the economical interest. Perhaps it would have been different if LKAB was owned by a private company, I don’t know. It seems that the governmental interest is to take part of this profit and to use it. It’s a very heavy interest. I think it’s out of the question that the mining interest would be ruled out from the interest of cultural or historical areas or the reindeer interests or interests from communications, infrastructure, roads, railroads, airport -- also governmental interests. So the mining interest will always be the dominating most important one, because it’s the heavy economical interest.
Fredrik Reinfeldt, Sweden’s Prime Minister, is quoted on a Swedish Radio website: I don’t want to promise anything about state funding. LKAB makes good profits and this kind of operations should not be paid for by the state. (Martinsson and Nordstrom 2006)
An LKAB representative pointed out that it was basically a matter of deciding from which pocket to take the money. Respondents noted that LKAB had not been very forthcoming with financial commitments for various projects nor with cost estimates for the relocation.
While Kiruna’s citizenry hold faith in the mining company, the mirror-case in Malmberget should provide caution; citizens there find LKAB’s compensation policies inadequate. Some respondents see the power politics in profitable national mining and warn: I think it’s very sad. They have to offer more than they have so far in Malmberget here in Kiruna, otherwise that will be a catastrophe. I’m not very optimistic.
It would be different if LKAB was privately owned. Then the government would have told LKAB they have to support the community. They’re interested in the billions of kronor. It’s all dependent on the government to point at LKAB.
LKAB originally founded Kiruna with the highest ideals of a society, as means to entice employees to arctic wastelands. Now LKAB appears more focused on business concerns: LKAB is not thinking that way today. LKAB is digging after iron. They might talk a society in a dream world, but offer no money to pay it. Somebody has to pay it. LKAB has not pointed towards paying. It’s a long problem and a long process how LKAB thinks, from
43 the beginning and now. Now they leave the humanity questions behind. They only dig iron.
Veiga (2001:201) supports the ideal that “community sustainability is not simply another management problem” for mining companies, calling for a new philosophy of ‘industry- community co-participation’. Hodge (2004) calls for a conceptual shift in mining resettlement compensation from mitigation of damages to contribution to social well-being. LKAB has yet to prove it holds those ideals, meanwhile it maintains strong community support.
While LKAB points out the importance of a vibrant diversified community to engage its employees and offer work to spouses, there is the viewpoint that the company might not be averse to putting only little investment in local society, and adopting a so-called oil platform strategy with fly-in, fly-out employees. The Icehotel observes that the increase in airline flights to support increasing tourism also supports the mining company’s need to move people up to Kiruna. An LKAB representative talks of transportable buildings: With new technology it might be possible to build buildings that easily can be moved. Already now today when you are building them you can prepare for a move.
A government official puts it into a different context: They could build up non-permanent houses that you can move, like Svalbard coal mine houses. You don’t give a thought to the other things like education, the church and the place that the people live. That’s the worse scenario.
Yet LKAB inherently recognizes the church and people’s sense of place; perhaps the actors are still sorting out their visions. Labor issues could influence LKAB philosophy on employees; workers went on strike over wages as recently as May 2007 and the company has retiring employees to replace in the future: It could be that internally they have these discussions – is it really worth it to go for, to support an attractive society, or should we rather go for the fly-in, fly-out. Somewhere I think they are actually calculating it, but of course it’s politically impossible to go out with ideas like that publicly, that would be suicide.
Similarly local Kiruna politicians might hesitate to speak out: The people are hoping. They’re hoping that the politicians will come to the right decision. What’s the most important thing – their own career or the city of Kiruna?
Uncertainty and Scenarios Premonitions and less appealing futures put forward by respondents, in a positive light are important for assessing vulnerabilities and building scenarios in preparation for the future. Despite some identified uncertainties (see Table 5.),
44 scenario planning Table 5. Perceived Uncertainties Affecting Kiruna's Relocation has been limited. uncertainty : Extent of deformation to the city In assessing the uncertainty : how long LKAB continues to mine uncertainty : long-term international iron prices city’s future uncertainty : whether surface deformation stops as mining goes deeper spatial needs, uncertainty : Funding and compensation for relocation Kiruna Kommun uncertainty : interpretation of the law / "direct effects" uncertainty : profit-taking versus investment in Kiruna society is developing uncertainty : ruling national political party and policies scenarios for the uncertainty : Privatization of LKAB extent of uncertainty : ruling national political party and policies deformation, which will be determined by how long LKAB continues mining, which in turn depends on international iron ore prices, and whether deformation at the surface stops as mining moves deeper.
No scenarios have been developed for uncertainty regarding levels of compensation that will be provided, which would affect morale, societal conditions and status of the city. The time- advanced situation in nearby Malmberget is too obvious a parallel to ignore; realistic scenarios could be created for morale Figure 2. Oil Platform–Utopia Scale (OPUS) collapse and societal Scale of Outcomes for Kiruna’s Society with Continued Mining transformation. Disturbance to Kiruna’s society is more than just a measure of deformation from mining; it also includes a measure of Disturbance in this case the funding made available for achieving relocation goals and compensating relocated people fairly. should be conceived not only as deformation from Oil Platform Utopia mining, but also as a (Fly-in fly-out national economic interest (Model function of the resources Employees) local adaptive capacity Society) power relations made available to politics social movement support the relocation. Figure 2, ‘Oil Platform - Utopia Scale’ (OPUS), depicts Kiruna’s potential societal condition, the slider for which controlled by funding and compensation realities in the long run.
Another wildcard is the possibility that the national government would sell off its highly profitable mining company; current privatization trends exist. It is indeed a challenge to plan for change when uncertainty of even the future players and their values exists, regarding
45 privatization and profit-taking in this case. Navigating disturbance and adaptive response dynamics are further challenged by the uncertainty inherent in long temporal scales. It is no wonder there are variety of visions out there. With a two-pronged approach, resilience can be built to face change with visions to guide and scenarios to warn.
Four Scenarios for Kiruna As a means to engage discussion of Kiruna’s future possibilities, four primary scenarios have been created, one each that focuses on the three industries of mining, space, and tourism, and one that Figure 3. Four Future Scenarios for Kiruna represented relative to two important drivers for Kiruna – envisions a balance. (See dependence on mining and scale of land use conflict
Figure 3.) (A secondary, Low Museum lesser version of one of the of Winter Rockets and Reindeer main scenarios is also offered.) The Millennium Land Use High Low Ecosystem Assessment Conflict Biosphere (2005) sees scenario planning Utopia as a means to imagine the Oil Platform future in ways that can’t be predicted from past or present High Dependence on Mining conditions. A combination of elements from each scenario may or may not be realized, but imagining different future constructions helps defuse surprise while highlighting uncertainties and possibilities (Peterson, et al. 2003). (For the purpose of the scenarios, Sami reindeer activities are considered a constant in the landscape, with different levels of land use conflict under different scenarios.) Here are the scenarios:
OIL PLATFORM Mining intensifies with workers employed primarily on a fly-in, fly-out basis. Little investment was put into the society. The relocation was abandoned although deformation continued. Low compensation for displaced people created very low morale and emigration increased as the society collapsed. Flights for temporary workers were initially available from previous tourism increases. Transportable houses are now used. No sense of place values exist. A disconnect from the landscape exists for the temporary workers who use the
46 land with little environmental ethic. Fewer recreational landscape users result in fewer but more intense conflicts with the Samis. The mine is eventually privatized.
MALMBERGET REVISITED (SKANSEN NORTH) This scenario is on the way towards becoming the Oil Platform scenario, with moderate compensation levels for displaced citizens resulting in low morale, partial society collapse, falling property values and reduced population. Citizens found some success in getting compensation by forming social movements, alerting the media and taking legal action, but community relations suffered and the society still collapsed in part. Kiruna’s relocation is carried out in an uneven manner over the years. Quality of life declines with an inconsistent and spread out city. Some sense of place values persist, but more like Skansen, the open air museum, with only one sample of each type of historic building preserved.
MUSEUM OF WINTER Tourism is the dominant industry, having grown out from the Icehotel area. The mine closed because of international ore price declines. Climate change results in Kiruna attracting many Europeans in winter to experience snow. Increases in mosquitoes reduce summer tourism. Tourism takes on the political power the mine once had. Increased land use conflicts with the Samis result from increased tourism activities. Tourism supports some Sami activities and enjoys increased space industry products; including suborbital and zero-G flights, aurora- watching and rocket launch spectatorship. Tourism replaces scientific research within the space industry. Tourism activities are carried out in the old mine shafts, including mining history, art exhibits, shopping, subterranean organic farming and spelunking.
ROCKETS AND REINDEER Space industry and technology intensify, with increased rocket launches, space tourism and satellite operations. The mine is still open but the ore body is nearly depleted. An extremely high degree of mining automation exists with very few people working. A very high-tech society has developed out from the rocket base at Esrange which has been privatized. The Samis all go back to the land and have regained almost exclusive use of the landscape for reindeer activities. Land use conflicts are very low except for restricted activities in certain areas during rocket launches. Society has polarized to two extremes: technological or traditional.
47 BIOSPHERE UTOPIA Mining, space, tourism and reindeer sectors all enjoy prosperity and work collaboratively on projects. Expansion of the UNESCO biosphere reserve was achieved and the process served as a collaborative arena which improved community integration. Unified vision for the future was developed and actions taken. The relocation of Kiruna is being carried out very successfully and a new innovative, aesthetic, ecological city is evolving. Old style buildings and sense of place values are preserved in tandem with new building designs. The mine has readopted its original model community ideals and is part of the model of sustainability of the biosphere reserve. Sweden’s national reputation improves from the success of Kiruna’s biosphere project. Kiruna Kommun builds its environmental reputation and hosts annual “Sustainable Relocations” conferences. Community relationships are strengthened and environmental ideals are boosted. Persisting land use conflicts between tourism and Sami activities are mediated through an established mechanism in the biosphere reserve. Sweden signs UN treaty ILO 169 recognizing indigenous people and Sami local knowledge is incorporated into research projects and in municipal planning.
Conclusions Societies facing approaching disturbance requiring significant adaptive response must take a two-pronged approach, simultaneously building resilient capacities to direct change towards developed visions of sustainability, while also developing plausible future scenarios that expose uncertainty in order to fend off less-desired trajectories. In particular, long periods of change will carry a scale of uncertainty that demands not only resilient processes but preparations against unwanted futures.
We invest in our future visions by using them as roadmaps to navigate change; we can take out insurance by using scenarios to show us signposts on undesired paths. Visions for future sustainability and scenarios of future realities together can better guide a community through long periods of disturbance. Visions and scenarios in tandem can also guide smaller scales of a community, stakeholders for example, in making directed responses in a period of change, whether to defend or promote interests or to stand by. Diverse interests, cultural differences and power imbalances in some communities may preclude formation of shared views, yet
48 visions for future sustainability in a period of change arise at various scales, reflecting goals for maintaining status quo, building adaptive responses or directing change for opportunity.
Kiruna’s case represents a situation with a long disturbance period approaching, a mismatch of governance scales and a viable less-desired future scenario occurring in real life for reference. With unaligned scales, conceptualization of disturbance in this case becomes more than just of a city deformed by mining, but also a measure of the resources that will be made available to support adaptive responses. It is not only a question of moving a town, but of moving a society with its values and standards for quality-of-life.
Scenarios can be developed to incorporate uncertainties of a long transition period, including the likelihood that the players and their policies will change. Without legally-binding commitments, uncertainty must be built into resilience processes. With potential for inconsistent levels of resource support from changing parties and policies over time, we might expect Kiruna’s community restructuring to exhibit small cycles of boom-and-bust during the long period of change.
Despite a living scenario of an unfavorable future of weak compensation causing poor morale, citizens maintain trust in the state-owned mining company and don’t get involved, a result of economic and historical dependence and nationalism. Politics tempers the obvious scenario, while dependence drives trust. Long time scales make pending changes an abstraction hard to fathom, while at the same time increasing uncertainty. Scenarios help provide insurance against adaptive capacities that can be overwhelmed by higher scales. Ignorance of scenario possibilities could result in unnecessary suffering if foreseeable conditions are not addressed.
While relocation is authorized by political authority and well-supported by citizens, changes for some individuals may be perceived as forced, and vulnerability is not often equitable. Lessons from other mining and dam relocations while at different scales than Kiruna’s can help scenario-building exercises by exposing certain uncertainties and illuminating future potentialities. The literature on relocations specifically addresses the fact that funding is not always sufficient (Downing 2002, Heming and Rees 2000) and that community sustainability goals are often missing in these cases (Hodge 2004, Veiga 2001).
49 From a resilience theory perspective, Kiruna must build stronger social institutions to direct change towards visions for sustainability and away from thresholds into other regimes. Correlating higher-scale decisions to local needs, moderating power dynamics, building vision and cooperation through collaborative arenas and propagating strong leadership are necessary measures for adaptive capacity. Furthermore, scenario planning and vulnerability assessments can be added as complements to resilience measures and vision-building, to assure for a more sustainable future.
As societies face greater challenges in a world setting of climate change, globalization and population growth, the ability to look forward to see sustainable paths and to see and avoid unsustainable ones is vital. Lessons from Kiruna for communities facing coming disturbance are to build visions of sustainability, at different scales; to build resilient processes to achieve those visions; and to search scenarios, particularly living scenarios and incorporate their lessons into adaptive and transformative responses for directing change.
Given a century of dependence on mining and a history of boom-and-bust cycles from industry turns and automation, as the so-called “no-problem people” Kiruna’s citizens are prepared to meet the coming changes. Future research of Kiruna’s relocation situation at a point ahead in time would provide valuable information on the ability of a community facing coming disturbance to build capacities for directing change toward sustainable visions while avoiding less desirable outcomes.
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53 Glossary of Terms and Players aurora, aurora borealis northern lights, high latitude fluorescing of gases from solar magnetism biosphere reserve UNESCO Man and Biosphere program designation deformation slumping or caving in of the Earth's surface above mining activity Esrange state-owned rocket and balloon launch facility, rocket range Icehotel tourist attraction rebuilt annually from river ice; in Jukkasjärvi, near Kiruna ILO 169 United Nations treaty recognizing indigenous people IRF Swedish Institute of Space Physics iron ore mineral containing iron oxides, used in steel production Kiruna Jakt och Fiskevårdsförening Kiruna hunting and fishing association Kiruna Kommun local municipal government authority; the municipality LKAB state-owned iron ore mining company magnetite an iron oxide, Fe3O4, magnetic mineral, source of iron ore Man and Biosphere UNESCO biosphere reserve program national interest national protected interest of natural, cultural or infrastructural importance Natura 2000 EU-designated protected area for biodiversity conservation pelletizing plant facility for processing iron ore into small round ball-like products resilience theory from ecology relating ability of a system to absorb change sameby Sami reindeer herding organizational unit Sami semi-nomadic reindeer-herding indigenous peoples, Lapps Sami Parliament center of Sami community for representing Sami issues and politics sense of place emotional attachment to physical space social ecological system integrative perspective removing boundaries between man and nature Spaceport Sweden collaborative space tourism project planned to begin 2012 vulnerability degree of effect to disturbance for a particular entity
54 Appendix Appendix A. Line of Questioning to Derive Data on Visions for Sustainable Future
Impressions of the past - How long have you been in Kiruna? - go as far back as you can remember, what were your first impressions? - what did the place look like, the town, landscape, wilderness, the mine, the people - how was the economy? What was the social life / attitudes?
Imagining today from the past - what did you imagine about the future at that time? - how are things now, relative to your future vision at that time?
Future vision - how do you see things changing now? What’s your future vision? - what does the future look like? - how far into the future do you plan / can you envision?
Sustainability - how does your future vision include ideals of sustainability? in whatever terms you want relative to your business, workers, the town, ideas, environment, people in --economic, --social, and --environmental terms - what do you need to do to achieve that vision? What actions/practices? - how do you sell your vision? accomplish it?
How can a community / sense of ‘community’, relation to landscape facing significant change / affected by relocation? build vision / whats your vision? vision-planning process? for its future / how far into the future do you plan? and can that vision be sustainable / future generations and unified? / who shares your vision? collaboration, arenas, social cohesion/capital
Appendix B. Respondents - Key Informants, Exploratory Interviews and Additional Contacts
code Respondent sector organization position second (or past) role Key Informants K1 Thomas Nylund local gov't Kiruna Kommun Chief Architect/Relocation Planning author of relocation 'Master Plan' L1 LKAB Representative 1 mining LKAB - - - J1 Peter Ögren recreation Kiruna hunting and fishing assn. Fishing Regulations Manager LKAB, Total Quality Management S1 Ragnhild Svonni Sami Sami Political List Kiruna Steering Board & Town Council Sami Parliamt., Bus'n & Social Matters E1 Dr. Olle Norberg space Esrange (Swedish Space Corp.) Director family were original LKAB employees I1 Yngve Bergqvist tourism Icehotel Owner / Founder ex-Environmental Office, LKAB Exploratory Interviews K0 Mats Persson local gov't Kiruna Kommun Information Officer L0 LKAB Representative 2 mining LKAB - - - S0 Marie Enoksson Sami Sami Parliament Public Relations Officer E0 Mattias Abrahamsson space Esrange (Swedish Space Corp.) Business Development Manager Kiruna Town Council I0 Camilla Bondareva tourism Icehotel Press Officer Additional Contacts X2 Dr. Kristina Nilsson academia SLU, Dept. Urban and Rural Dev. Associate Professor X3 Karin Norberg academia Uppsala University Inst. Housing and Urban Studies H1 Peter Stenberg archives Roots of Kiruna Archivist M1 Lars Israelsson gov't Gällivare Kommun (Malmberget) Cultural Secretary K2 Tommy Lahti local gov't Kiruna Kommun MAB, conference planning K3 Jan Unga local gov't Kiruna Kommun Sami questions L2 Britta Stålnacke mining LKAB InfoMine tour guide N1 Curt Persson museum Norrbotten Museum Director ex-Cultural Secretary, Kiruna Kommun N2 Jennie Sjöholm museum Norrbotten Museum conducting Kiruna surveys S2 Sigrid Sarri Sami Samegården Museum Caretaker Sami family tourism near Kebnekaise E2 Mette Fjällberg space Esrange (Swedish Space Corp.) Public Relations I2 Roger Jacobsson tourism Icehotel Adventures Managing Director
55 Appendix C. Top 60 Most-Discussed Topics with Respondents respondent number >>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 concept category frequency Malmberget people unhappy x x x x x x x x 8 cooperation seen as important x x x x x x 6 jobs - LKAB big invest, few jobs /automatn x x x x x x 6 LKAB long term view (=100 years) x x x x x x 6 people - many people connected to mine x x x x x x 6 people: Malmberget caution for K x x x x x x 6 people: optimism / acceptance x x x x x x 6 tourism - increasing / good potential x x x x x x 6 conflict: Sami - JoF,snowmo,tourism,space x x x x x 5 coopn: Icehotel w/space, LKAB, Sami x x x x x 5 deform zone1 mostly LKAB buildings x x x x x 5 people - outdoor recreation passion strong x x x x x 5 $ - who pays for relocation? x x x x 4 $ - LKAB reluctance to pay x x x x 4 conflict - K2 - LKAB x x x x 4 democracy problem - poor public particpn x x x x 4 dual roles in society x x x x 4 env: local lake being drained for LKAB ops x x x x 4 Icehotel - important for K / magnet x x x x 4 K population: trends, ests w/o mining x x x x 4 LKAB powerful / political influence x x x x 4 LKAB profits / high profitability x x x x 4 Malmberget crater, houses shaking x x x x 4 relocn: known to be coming for a long time x x x x 4 Sami - reindeer disturbances x x x x 4 Sami - snowmobile closures x x x x 4 youth: h.s.:museum, K2, LKAB projects x x x x 4 communication (one-way / tell to / inform) x x x 3 communicn: K2 - LKAB problems x x x 3 coopn - local interactions important x x x 3 coopn: Icehotel = business first x x x 3 env protxn: against NPs (JoF,snowmos) x x x 3 climate change: biogeog, precip, seasons x x x 3 Icehotel - business first x x x 3 information seen as important x x x 3 jobs - LKAB employees / #s, trends x x x 3 Kiruna becoming more interesting x x x 3 Kiruna - diverse industry important x x x 3 Kiruna economy & popn-dependent on LKAB x x x 3 Kiruna: a lot of interest in relocation x x x 3 K2: decision-making x x x 3 K2: not doing enough for environment x x x 3 LKAB benefits from healthy K society x x x 3 LKAB company pride / defense x x x 3 LKAB exploring orebody, others x x x 3 LKAB new haulage level x x x 3 LKAB relocn cost part of biz d-m x x x 3 LKAB role in K business development x x x 3 LKAB thought to be env clean x x x 3 MAB - support it / OK x x x 3 nationalism shown by LKAB employees x x x 3 relocation: keep K in one; avoid dividing x x x 3 relocation: retaining cultural heritage imp. x x x 3 Sami reindeer - very bad year x x x 3 SWE enjoys big profits from LKAB x x x 3 SWE National Interests - conflicting? x x x 3 trust - K2+ don't trust LKAB x x x 3 x Frequency of Conceptsx Discussed with Respondentsx x x 397 x 331 x x 265 x x x 199 x x 133 67 x Number of Concepts 1 x x 0 1 2 3 4 x5 6 7 8 x Number of Respondentsx x Discussingx Each Concept
56 Appendix D. Analysis of Kiruna's Adaptive Capacity Recommendations / Findings + / - Kiruna Case Status Mining-Induced Displacement & Resettlement -Contingency Clause (Downing 2002) all risks assessed in advance + parallel case available for comparison goals set in advance not expressly, to be determined and negotiated? costs estimated in advance rough costs only: 30 B SEK; LKAB says no cost estimates organizations set up in advance + planning and steering groups at 3 hierarchy levels financing secured in advance - no publicly-disclosed legal agreement - no mitigation responsibility by third party - no Mining's Seven Questions to Sustainability (Hodge 2004) understanding and participation by public? - low participation, confusion of public awareness goals of people's well-being? - not specifically; economic vitality goals environmental goals? + environmental practices upheld assured economic benefit for region? + jobs and taxes; uncertain future traditional and non-market activities? not supported by mining activities? institutions and governance for change? + planning and steering groups at 3 hierarchy levels alternatives, overall synthesis, learning? + yes master plan, no vision plan, scenario plans needed Mining with Communities (Veiga 2001) ecological sustainability + environmental policies are respected economic vitality + probable, depends on long-term iron price trends social equity to some extent equitable partnership with community historically yes; conflicts, relationship changing? transparent and effective communications with mine - transparency called into question lasting legacy of sustainability and well-being + proven in past, uncertain with relocation avoiding environmental degradation and social dislocation - environment ok mostly, relocations occuring bring net benefit to community, not only mitigate impacts to be determined with relocation establish infrastructure to support workforce + historically true sustain employment by discovering and mining available ore + yes, but jobs declining due to automation planning for mine closure mentioned, but investing heavily flexible adaptive local process is needed local processes, but how flexible? build local capacity-building and governance - uncertain, mismatch of governance scale ethical operations leaving sustainable legacy for future + future economic sustainablity intended developing resilient communities + "no problem people" developing long-term benefits + jobs, economic base shared decision-making processes - in question, conflict and power relations at play community sustainability not just a management problem uncertain (oil platform - utopia scale) Building Resilience and Adaptive Capacity (Folke 2005) learn to live with change and uncertainty + accepted change, need to manage for uncertainty nurture diversity and memory for reorganization and renewal + original model society, need to watch Malmberget combine different knowledge types for learning Sami knowledge neglected facilitate self-organization (by managing scales, drivers) - governance alignment and investor signals needed Actions for Successful Transformations (Olsson 2006) change attitudes to a new shared vision - separate visions, need info develop leadership across scales uncertain, politics over visionary leadership? design resilient processes (discourse, collaborations) + working groups established, but focus on plans? reflect on past outcomes and change practices Malmberget situation not watched closely enough? facilitate both bottom-up and top-down change - uncertain maintain projects and wait for opportunities to open + options for relocated city sections pending watch larger scales for political opportunities not certain, changes to ruling party? identify thresholds and adaptive cycle phases + disturbance known, thresholds not? plan resilient actions after disturbance responses planned more than resilient processes use 30-50 year time horizon for slow dynamics + nature of disturbance is decades long create cooperation, open channels some, need is recognized create face to face, sector to sector communication recognized, but some scale mismatches encourage small-scale revolts and recoveries see need for signs of progress allow right amount of flexibility in institutions and politics uncertain how institutions and politics are changing Eight Transformation Steps (Kotter 1995) establish a sense of urgency + yes, but decisions too fast, change will come slowly form a powerful guiding coalition + ministry/executive-level Malmfältets Delegation create a vision - vision conflict - LKAB and Kommun, too early? communicate the vision + unofficial LKAB vision well-distributed, Kommun's not? empower others to act on the vision - unclear signals for investors plan for and create short-term wins necessity understood consolidate improvements and produce more change in future institutionalize new approaches in Kommun planning?, too early Axioms of Resilience (Vale and Campanella 2005) resilience narratives are political - national interest disaster reveals a government's resilience resilience narratives are always contested - power dynamics and conflicts exist local resilience reflects on national level + Kiruna's reputation is increasing resilience is supported by outsiders state as mine owner contributes rebuilding symbolizes human resilience + Kirunese are the "no-problem people" remembrance drives resilience depends on perception of deformation areas resilience benefits from prior investment existing attributes, infrastructure, networks resilience exploits power of place + 'sense of place' relationships respected resilience casts opportunism as opportunity - existing agendas forwarded (e.g., railway location)
57 58