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Unterüberschrift Der Zweiten Ebene Compatibility of Seismic Hazard and Risk Calculations with Historical Observations zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Naturwissenschaften (Dr. rer. nat.) von der KIT-Fakultät für Bauingenieur-, Geo- und Umweltwissenschaften des Karlsruher Instituts für Technologie (KIT) genehmigte Dissertation von M.Sc. Danhua Xin aus Dancheng County, Zhoukou City, Henan Province, P.R. China Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 25.10.2019 Erster Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Friedemann Wenzel Zweiter Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Mustafa Erdik This document is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0): https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.en Zusammenfassung Zusammenfassung Diese Dissertation befasst sich mit der Bewertung der Modellierung der Erdbebengefährdung und der Schäden durch Vergleich mit historischen Erdbeben und Schadensinformationen. Ina Cecic, Präsidentin der European Seismological Commission, bemerkt dazu: „Ich freue mich zu bemerken, dass wir die Aktivitäten für interdisziplinäre Aufgaben immer weiter ausdehnen und über die „reine“ Seismologie hinaus auf andere Bereiche vordringen, die im wirklichen Leben miteinander verbunden sind. Dies ist besonders wichtig für die Bereiche Bildung und Ö ffentlichkeitsarbeit, da nur das Bewusstsein für die Gefahren in unserer Umgebung und das Wissen darüber, was zu tun ist, langfristig Leben retten kann.“ In dieser Arbeit wird zunächst ein systematischer Rahmen für die flächenbezogene Bewertung der Qualität der seismischen Gefahrenkarten entwickelt. Seit vielen Jahrzehnten ist die Erdbebengefährdunskarte in den meisten Ländern ein zwingender Bestandteil der Konstruktionspraxis. Anstrengungen zur Beurteilung der tatsächlichen Qualität dieser Karten sind essentiell. Unterschiedliche Metriken und Kriterien werden angewendet und detailliert diskutiert. Ich untersuche diese Frage am Beispiel des Einflußes der Magnituden-Häufigkeit. Zweitens wurden in den letzten vier Jahrzehnten zahlreiche Forschungsberichte und -dokumente veröffentlicht, die sich mit der Anfälligkeit von Gebäuden für Bodenbewegungen aufgrund von Erdbeben in China befassen, da eine umfassende Bewertung der seismischen Anfälligkeit von Gebäuden eine Schlüsselaufgabe der Erdbebensicherheits- und Schadensbewertung ist. Aus diesem Grund habe ich zuerst 69 Artikel und Dissertationen unter die Lupe genommen und untersuchte die Gebäudeschäden, die durch Erbeben in dicht besiedelten Gebieten entstanden sind. Sie stellen Beobachtungen dar, bei denen die makroseismischen Intensitäten gemäß der chinesischen offiziellen Seismic Intensity Scale bestimmt wurden. Aus diesen vielen Studien werden die mittleren Fragilitätsfunktionen (abhängig von der Makro- seismischen Intensität) für vier Schadensgrenzzustände von zwei am weitesten verbreiteten Gebäudetypen abgeleitet: Mauerwerk und Stahlbeton. Ich habe auch 18 Veröffentlichungen untersucht, die analytische Fragilitätsfunktionen (abhängig von der Spitzenbeschleunigung - PGA) für dieselben Schadensklassen und Gebäudekategorien bereitstellen. Auf diese Weise wird eine solide Fragilitätsdatenbank für seismisch gefährdete Gebiete auf dem chinesischen Festland erstellt, die sowohl auf Intensität als auch auf PGA basiert. Es wird ein umfassender Ü berblick über die Probleme bei der Bewertung der Fragilität für verschiedene Gebäudetypen gegeben. Ein notwendiger Vergleich mit internationalen Projekten mit ähnlichem Schwerpunkt wird durchgeführt. Basierend auf der neu gesammelten Fragilitätsdatenbank wird ein neuer Ansatz zur Ableitung der Intensität-PGA-Beziehung unter Verwendung der Fragilität als Brücke vorgeschlagen, und es werden optimierte Intensität-PGA- Beziehungen entwickelt. Dieser Ansatz führt zur Verringerung der Streuung in der traditionellen Intensitäts-PGA-Beziehung. Drittens, für die Risikoanalyse wird der Gebäudebestand, der durch ein Erdbeben gefährdet ist benötigt. Diese Studie entwickelt einen Ansatz einesgeo-kodierten Bestandsmodells für Wohngebäude für das chinesische Festland durch. Hierbei werden die Daten der Volkszählung in einem 1 km × 1 km Rahmen als Proxy benutzt. Zur Bewertung der Modellleistung wird die in diesem Kapitel entwickelte Wohnfläche auf Bezirksebene mit Aufzeichnungen aus dem statistischen Jahrbuch verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die in dieser Studie entwickelte Grundfläche nach Bereinigung um einheitliche Baukosten durchaus mit der Grundflächenstatistik von Shanghai vergleichbar ist. Die Anwendung dieses Modells in der Risikoanalyse i des Erdbebens in Wenchuan M8.0 wird ebenfalls durchgeführt. Der auf der Grundlage dieses Expositionsmodells für Wohngebäude geschätzte Gesamtverlust entspricht in etwa dem Verlustwert, der aus Schadensmeldungen auf der Grundlage von Felduntersuchungen abgeleitet wurde. Diese Kongruenzen verdeutlichen die Robustheit des hier entwickelten Wohnungsbestandmodells. Schließlich wird die Schadensabschätzung mithilfe verschiedener Methoden durchgeführt und ein Vergleich mit Schäden angestellt, die aus Schadensmeldungen abgeleitet wurden. Zur Verbesserung des Verlustverteilungsmusters wird die Entwicklung eines regionalen Human Development Indexes vorgeschlagen. Sensitivitätstests werden durchgeführt, um die Auswirkungen jedes Faktors auf die Ermittlung des endgültigen Verlusts zu überprüfen. ii Abstract Abstract This thesis focuses on the evaluation of modelling seismic hazard and loss through comparison with his- torical earthquake and loss information, based on the long recording history and frequent occurrence of earthquakes in mainland China. Efforts are made to calibrate seismic hazard and risk model in a statistical way, and to figure out whether the historical damage information can effectively constrain the predicted results by various models. It’s worth to note that, this kind of model calibration is not targeted at damage to individual building caused by specific earthquake, but at damage to groups of buildings in certain re- search area based on statistical analysis of historical earthquakes. This work firstly presents a systematic frame for area-based assessment of seismic hazard map perfor- mance. Since seismic hazard map has been used in regulating engineering design practice in many coun- tries for many decades, efforts in assessing how well these maps actually perform is essential. Different metrics and criteria are applied and discussed in detail. I study the effect of modelled earthquake sources as compared to historic earthquake sources. Secondly, to better understand the susceptibility of the current buildings to be damaged in potential earthquake hazards in mainland China, a comprehensive evaluation of building seismic fragility is essential, which is also one key task of earthquake safety and loss assessment. Many research reports and papers have been published over the past four decades that deal with the vulnerability of buildings to ground motion caused by earthquakes in China. Therefore, I first scrutinized 69 papers and theses studying build- ing damage for earthquakes occurred in densely populated areas. They represent observations where macro-seismic intensities have been determined according to the Chinese Official Seismic Intensity Scale. From these many studies the median fragility functions (dependent on intensity) are derived for four damage limit states of two most widely distributed building types: masonry and reinforced concrete. I also inspected 18 publications that provide analytical fragility functions (dependent on peak ground ac- celeration - PGA) for the same damage classes and building categories. Thus, a solid fragility database based on both intensity and PGA is established for seismic prone areas in mainland China. A comprehen- sive view of the problems posed by the evaluation of fragility for different building types is given. Neces- sary comparison with international projects with similar focus is conducted. Based on the newly collected fragility database, a new approach is proposed in deriving intensity-PGA relation by using fragility as the bridge and reasonable intensity-PGA relations are developed. This novel approach may allow to decrease the scatter in traditional intensity-PGA relation development, i.e., by further classifying observed macro- seismic intensities and instrumental ground motions based on difference in building seismic resistance capability. Thirdly, after the construction and evaluation of seismic hazards and the vulnerability of buildings to these seismic hazards, an evaluation of the currently exposed building stock value is also necessary. Therefore, a high-resolution residential building stock model for mainland China is further developed, by disaggre- gating administrative level census data into 1km×1km scale using population as the proxy. For evaluation of the model performance, floor area in districts of Shanghai developed in this study is compared with records from statistical yearbook. It turns out that, with certain adjustment the district level floor area developed in this study is quite consistent with that recorded in Shanghai statistical yearbook. Provincial level comparison of the modelled building stock value with that modelled in previous studies also vali- dates the reliability of the model developed in this study. Furthermore, an application of the modelled iii results in loss assessment of 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake is also conducted. The overall estimated loss based on the modelled residential building stock is quite approximate to the loss estimated from
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