Survey of Current Business January 1923
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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945. T939. 311 rolls. (~A complete list of rolls has been added.) Roll Volumes Dates 1 1-3 January-June, 1910 2 4-5 July-October, 1910 3 6-7 November, 1910-February, 1911 4 8-9 March-June, 1911 5 10-11 July-October, 1911 6 12-13 November, 1911-February, 1912 7 14-15 March-June, 1912 8 16-17 July-October, 1912 9 18-19 November, 1912-February, 1913 10 20-21 March-June, 1913 11 22-23 July-October, 1913 12 24-25 November, 1913-February, 1914 13 26 March-April, 1914 14 27 May-June, 1914 15 28-29 July-October, 1914 16 30-31 November, 1914-February, 1915 17 32 March-April, 1915 18 33 May-June, 1915 19 34-35 July-October, 1915 20 36-37 November, 1915-February, 1916 21 38-39 March-June, 1916 22 40-41 July-October, 1916 23 42-43 November, 1916-February, 1917 24 44 March-April, 1917 25 45 May-June, 1917 26 46 July-August, 1917 27 47 September-October, 1917 28 48 November-December, 1917 29 49-50 Jan. 1-Mar. 15, 1918 30 51-53 Mar. 16-Apr. 30, 1918 31 56-59 June 1-Aug. 15, 1918 32 60-64 Aug. 16-0ct. 31, 1918 33 65-69 Nov. 1', 1918-Jan. 15, 1919 34 70-73 Jan. 16-Mar. 31, 1919 35 74-77 April-May, 1919 36 78-79 June-July, 1919 37 80-81 August-September, 1919 38 82-83 October-November, 1919 39 84-85 December, 1919-January, 1920 40 86-87 February-March, 1920 41 88-89 April-May, 1920 42 90 June, 1920 43 91 July, 1920 44 92 August, 1920 45 93 September, 1920 46 94 October, 1920 47 95-96 November, 1920 48 97-98 December, 1920 49 99-100 Jan. -
The Submarine and the Washington Conference Of
477 THE SUBMARINE AND THE WASHINGTON CONFERENCE OF 1921 Lawrence H. Douglas Following the First World War, the tation of this group, simply stated, was tide of public opinion was overwhelm that second best in naval strength meant ingly against the submarine as a weapon last. A policy of naval superiority was of war. The excesses of the German necessary, they felt, for "history consis U-boat had stunned the sensibilities of tently shows that war between no two the world but had, nonetheless, pre peoples or nations can be unthink sented new ideas and possibilities of this able.,,1 A second group, the Naval weapon to the various naval powers of Advisory Committee (Admirals Pratt the time. The momentum of these new and Coontz and Assistant Secretary of ideas proved so strong that by the the Navy Theodore Roosevelt, Jr.) also opening of the first major international submitted recommendations concerning disarmament conference of the 20th the limitation of naval armaments. century, practical uses of the submarine From the outset their deliberations were had all but smothered the moral indig guided by a concern that had become nation of 1918. more and more apparent-the threat Several months prior to the opening posed to the security and interests of of the conference, the General Board of this country by Japan. This concern was the American Navy was given the task evidenced in an attempt to gain basic of developing guidelines and recommen understandings with Britain. dations to be used by the State Depart The submarine received its share of ment in determining the American attention in the deliberations of these proposals to be presented. -
The Treaty of Versailles, Inflation and Stabilization
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: German Business Cycles, 1924-1933 Volume Author/Editor: Carl T. Schmidt Volume Publisher: NBER Volume ISBN: 0-87014-024-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/schm34-1 Publication Date: 1934 Chapter Title: The Treaty of Versailles, Inflation and Stabilization Chapter Author: Carl T. Schmidt Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4933 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 24) GERMAN BUSINESS CYCLES 1924—1933 CHAPTER ONE THE TREATY OF VERSAILLES, INFLATION AND STABILIZATION THE fateful decade of war, revolution and currency inflation— 1914—24—witnessed sweeping changes in the economic life of Germany. On the eve of the World War, Germany was one of the great economic powers of the world. In industrial activity, in world commerce, in international finance, in the aggres- siveness and resourcefulness of its business leaders, it challenged or surpassed every one of its rivals. Tenyears later the formerly powerful German economy was perilously near the brink of chaos. The tremendous spiritual and material demands of a disastrous war,the acceptance of thesevere provisions of the treaty of peace, the domestic in- stability attending political revolution, and the catastrophic currency inflation—these factors had wrought havoc in the business life of the nation. Some notion of the economic consequences of Germany's defeat in the World War and of its plunge into the maelstrom of inflation is essential 3] to an appreciation of the character of the fluctua- tions in its economy after the return to more stable conditions, for certain peculiar features of these fluctuations were intimately related to structural changes imposed upon it by the War, the peace treaty and the currency inflation. -
The Crisis, Vol. 23, No. 1 (November 1921)
The CRISIS Vol. 23-No. 1 NOVEMBER, 1921 Whole No. 135 ONE DOLLAR AND A HALF A YEAR FIFTEEN CENTS' Turning Hard Times into Prosperous Times The year 1921 will ever be remembered as the period of "America's Hardest Times" following the World's War. Conditions would be worse than now were it not for the Herculean efforts of those determined spirits who are forcing the wheels of progress to continue to revolve. THE SOUTHERN AID SOCIETY OF VA„ INC., is proud to be numbered among those who are trying to keep the Door of Opportunity open. The cut below shows the new $200,000.00 four-story and basement modern fireproof building erected by the Society at 7th and Tea Streets. N W., Washington, D, C. to help turn Hard Times into Prosperous Times. not only does the Superior Policy of Protection, issued by the Society, keep the wolf the door of all Southern Aid Policyholders but its policy of constructing modern office lings, in the various cities where it operates, makes it possible for our professional and less interests to have suitable quarters—like the best had by other races—in which to lay their talents and wares and to do better business. Therefore by its Insurance Policy as well, by its Business Policy the Society is daily helping to turn Hard Times into Prosperous Times. SOUTHERN AID SOCIETY OF VIRGINIA, INC. Home Office: 527 N. Second Street, RICHMOND, VA. District Offices and Agencies in Virginia and the District of Columbia Insures Against Sickness, Accidents and Deaths J. -
The Ends of Four Big Inflations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation: Causes and Effects Volume Author/Editor: Robert E. Hall Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-31323-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/hall82-1 Publication Date: 1982 Chapter Title: The Ends of Four Big Inflations Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452 Chapter pages in book: (p. 41 - 98) The Ends of Four Big Inflations Thomas J. Sargent 2.1 Introduction Since the middle 1960s, many Western economies have experienced persistent and growing rates of inflation. Some prominent economists and statesmen have become convinced that this inflation has a stubborn, self-sustaining momentum and that either it simply is not susceptible to cure by conventional measures of monetary and fiscal restraint or, in terms of the consequent widespread and sustained unemployment, the cost of eradicating inflation by monetary and fiscal measures would be prohibitively high. It is often claimed that there is an underlying rate of inflation which responds slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal measures.1 Evidently, this underlying rate of inflation is the rate of inflation that firms and workers have come to expect will prevail in the future. There is momentum in this process because firms and workers supposedly form their expectations by extrapolating past rates of inflation into the future. If this is true, the years from the middle 1960s to the early 1980s have left firms and workers with a legacy of high expected rates of inflation which promise to respond only slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal policy actions. -
8912 SUPPLEMENT to the LONDON GAZETTE, 9 NOVEMBER, 1921. Lib
8912 SUPPLEMENT TO THE LONDON GAZETTE, 9 NOVEMBER, 1921. Lib. T. R. A. Maynard. ROYAL GARRISON ARTILLERY. Lt. C. .8. Blake. Tynemowsth.—L;b. H. G. Pybus to have Lb. W. Simpson, D.C.M. seniority 9bh Mar. 1921.10th Nov. 1921. Lt. H.R. Smith. Li. E. Barnes. ROYAL OOHPS OF SIGNALS. Lt. J. A. Braddick, M.C. 44th ^H. Counties) DivL fHys.—JLA. Cyril Lt. E. B. Wratben. Josse Johnson (late Gen. List-) to be Lt. Lfc. H. E. C. Hay. 31st July 1921 . (Substituted for bhat which Lt.' H. B. Walpole. appeared in the Gazette of 29bh Aug. 1921..) Lt. W.'H. E. Coabes. Lib. J.- P. Line. ROYAL ARMY MEDICAL CORPS. Lib. A. H. Dombleday. Lt. F. E, Powell. General List.—'Lt.-Cal. F. W. Gibbon, V.D., Lib. F. Richardson, M.M. TLD., having attained the age limit, is re- Lt. Ei. H. Williams, D'.C.M. tired, 10th Nov. 1921, and retains bhe rank of Lit. -(Col., with permission to wear bhe pre- Lib. H.| S. Harvey. scribed uniform. 2nd Lib. D. A. Walsh-Waring. 1 2nd Lib. W. Townsend. Maj. J. O . iSumanerhayes, D.iS.O., T.D., 2nd L,t. H. 19. Barber, M.M. resigns his commn., lObh Nov. 1921, and is 2nd Lfc. B. C. Turner. granbed the rank of Lt.-Col., with permis- 2nd iLb. W. H. Fisher. sion to wear the prescribed uniform. 2nd Lb. H. E. Johnson. 1st N. Gen. #o«p.— Maj. D. W1. Patterson, 2nd lib. G. F. Pead. O.Bi.E., M'.B., having attained the age 2nd kb. -
Yesterday's News: Media Framing of Hitler's Early Years, 1923-1924
92 — The Elon Journal of Undergraduate Research in Communications, Vol. 6, No. 1 • Spring 2015 Yesterday’s News: Media Framing of Hitler’s Early Years, 1923-1924 Katherine Blunt Journalism and History Elon University Abstract This research used media framing theory to assess newspaper coverage of Hitler published in The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, and The Washington Post between 1923 and 1924. An analysis of about 200 articles revealed “credible” and “non-credible” frames relating to his political influence. Prior to Hitler’s trial for treason in 1924, the credible frame was slightly more prevalent. Following his subsequent conviction, the non-credible frame dominated coverage, with reports often presenting Hitler’s failure to over- throw the Bavarian government as evidence of his lack of political skill. This research provides insight into the way American media cover foreign leaders before and after a tipping point—one or more events that call into question their political efficacy. I. Introduction The resentment, suspicion, and chaos that defined global politics during the Great arW continued into the 1920s. Germany plunged into a state of political and economic turmoil following the ratification of the punitive Treaty of Versailles, and the Allies watched with trepidation as it struggled to make reparations pay- ments. The bill — equivalent to 33 billion dollars then and more than 400 billion dollars today — grew increas- ingly daunting as the value of the mark fell from 400 to the dollar in 1922 to 7,000 to the dollar at the start of 1923, when Bavaria witnessed the improbable rise of an Austrian-born artist-turned-politician who channeled German outrage into a nationalistic, anti-Semitic movement that came to be known as the Nazi Party.1 Ameri- can media outlets, intent on documenting the chaotic state of post-war Europe, took notice of Adolf Hitler as he attracted a following and, through their coverage, essentially introduced him to the American public. -
American Opinion of the Soviet/Vatican Struggle 1917-1933
University of Central Florida STARS Retrospective Theses and Dissertations 1988 American opinion of the soviet/vatican struggle 1917-1933 Jeffrey P. Begeal University of Central Florida Part of the History Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/rtd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Masters Thesis (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Retrospective Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Begeal, Jeffrey P., "American opinion of the soviet/vatican struggle 1917-1933" (1988). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 4260. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/rtd/4260 AMERICA N CPJ}:-TON· Of· THE SOVIET/VATI CAN STRUGGLE 1917-1933 BY JEFFREY PAUL BEGEAL B.A., Mercer University, 1982 THESIS .Submi.·ct~!d. in partial fulfillment of the requirements f o r the Master of Arts dEgree in History in the Graduate Studies Program of the College of Arts and Sciences University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Fall Term 1988 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface -·················· .,.,. • 1o1 ••··· .. ··•• »••···.,······ iii Chapter I. THE REVOLUTION OF MARCH 1917 ................ 1 II. THE REVOLUTION OF NOVEMBER 1917 .............. 12 III. THE GENOA CONFERENCE, 1922 .................. 26 IV. THE CATHOLIC CLERGY TRIAL, 1923 .. .......... 41 v. THE FAMINE RELIEF MISSION OF 1921-1924 ...... 56 VI. THE PRAYER CRUSADE OF 1930 .................. 65 VII. THE RECOGNITION DEBATE, 1933 ................ 78 Conclusion . 91 NOTES . 96 APPENDIX I WALSH TO CREEDEN, 27 SEPTEMBER 1923 . ..... 105 APPENDIX II WORKS CONSULTED .......................... 108 WORKS CITED 114 PREFACE The first sixteen years of the history of Soviet/ Vatican relaticns represented one of the most profound ideological and political struggles of the twentieth century. -
Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs Papers
http://oac.cdlib.org/findaid/ark:/13030/tf8t1nb320 No online items Register of the Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs papers Finding aid prepared by Ronald Bulatoff Hoover Institution Library and Archives © 1998 434 Galvez Mall Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6003 [email protected] URL: http://www.hoover.org/library-and-archives Register of the Mikhail 28015 1 Nikolaevich Girs papers Title: Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs papers Date (inclusive): 1917-1926 Collection Number: 28015 Contributing Institution: Hoover Institution Library and Archives Language of Material: Russian Physical Description: 53 manuscript boxes(22.1 Linear Feet) Abstract: Correspondence, studies, reports, telegrams, memoranda, statistics, charts, clippings, and other printed matter, relating to White Russian diplomatic, political, and military activities during the Russian Revolution, Russian émigré activities, and conditions in Russia during and after the Revolution. Access The collection is open for research; materials must be requested at least two business days in advance of intended use. Publication Rights For copyright status, please contact the Hoover Institution Library & Archives Acquisition Information Acquired by the Hoover Institution Library & Archives in 1928. Preferred Citation [Identification of item], Mikhail Nikolaevich Girs papers, [Box no., Folder no. or title], Hoover Institution Library & Archives. Alternative Form Available Also available on microfilm (75 reels). 1856 Born, Russia 1894 Russian Minister to Brazil 1898 Russian Minister -
A Turning Point for the Weimar Republic
1923 - A Turning Point for the Weimar Republic 1923 - A Turning Point for the Weimar Republic The Invasion of the Ruhr Following defeat in the First World War, Germany’s economy was in turmoil. However, in 1921 the allied powers decided – as required by the Treaty of Versailles – that the total sum of reparations to be paid by Germany would amount to 229 million Goldmarks, a sum that was to be changed later. Since Germany was not even close to being able to pay that sum, it was decided that the total had to be paid within 42 years. As early as 1922 Germany could not keep up with the payment of reparations, but the French in particular were determined to force Germany to pay what they owed. In January 1923 the French government lots its patience and sent troops to invade the Ruhr, Germany’s most valuable industrial area. The French believed that they had every right to occupy the area to extract the reparations themselves. The French prime minister at the time, Raymond Poincare, said that letting the Germans break the terms of the Treaty of Versailles in regards of the war reparations, would create a precedent that would lead Germany to ignore the rest of the Treaty. The French and Belgian troops took over the iron and steel factories, coal mines and railways. Those Germans who lived in the Ruhr and were considered not to be cooperating were imprisoned. Weimar’s government responded by ordering the workers in the Ruhr to go on strike. It also ordered all people in the Ruhr to passively resist the French and Belgian soldiers. -
Record of Current Educational Publications. Bulletin 1921, No. 52
DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR BUREAU OF EDUCATION BULLETIN, 1921, No. 52 RECORD OF CURRENT EDUCATIONAL PUBLICATIONS ?> COMPRISING PUBLICATIONS RECEIVED BY THE BUREAU OF EDUCATION TO DECEMBER 22, 1921 COMPILED BY THE LIBRARY DIVISION OF THE BUREAU OF EDUCATION WASHINGTON GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE « ADDITIONAL COPIES OF THIS PUBLICATION MAY BE PROCURED FROM THE -SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D. C. AT 5 CENTS PER COPY RECORD OF CURRENT EDUCATIONAL PUBLICATIONS. Comprising publications received by the Bureau of Education to December 22, 1921. Compiled by the Library Division, Bureau of Education. Contents.—Proceedings of associations—Educational history—Current educational conditions—Educational theory and practice—Educational psychology ; Child study— Psychological tests—Educational tests and measurements—^Special methods of instruc¬ tion—Special subjects of curriculum—Kindergarten and primary school—Rural life and culture—Rural education—Secondary education—Teacher training—Teachers’ sala¬ ries and professional status—Higher education—Research—School administration— School management—School buildings and grounds—School hygiene and sanitation— Physical training—Play and recreation—Social aspects of education—Child welfare— Religious and church education—Manual and vocational training—Vocational guidance— Workers’ education—Agriculture—Home -economics—Commercial education—Medical education—Engineering education—Civic education—Education of women—Negro edu¬ cation—Education of deaf—Exceptional children—Education extension—Libraries and reading—Bureau of Education: Recent publications. NOTE. The titles included in the classified and annotated list which follows are of books and articles selected by the compilers from the current educational literature of the final months of 1921, subsequent to the preparation of Bulletin, 1921, no. 49, Monthly Record of Current Educational Publications, October, 19*21.