A Turning Point for the Weimar Republic
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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945. T939. 311 rolls. (~A complete list of rolls has been added.) Roll Volumes Dates 1 1-3 January-June, 1910 2 4-5 July-October, 1910 3 6-7 November, 1910-February, 1911 4 8-9 March-June, 1911 5 10-11 July-October, 1911 6 12-13 November, 1911-February, 1912 7 14-15 March-June, 1912 8 16-17 July-October, 1912 9 18-19 November, 1912-February, 1913 10 20-21 March-June, 1913 11 22-23 July-October, 1913 12 24-25 November, 1913-February, 1914 13 26 March-April, 1914 14 27 May-June, 1914 15 28-29 July-October, 1914 16 30-31 November, 1914-February, 1915 17 32 March-April, 1915 18 33 May-June, 1915 19 34-35 July-October, 1915 20 36-37 November, 1915-February, 1916 21 38-39 March-June, 1916 22 40-41 July-October, 1916 23 42-43 November, 1916-February, 1917 24 44 March-April, 1917 25 45 May-June, 1917 26 46 July-August, 1917 27 47 September-October, 1917 28 48 November-December, 1917 29 49-50 Jan. 1-Mar. 15, 1918 30 51-53 Mar. 16-Apr. 30, 1918 31 56-59 June 1-Aug. 15, 1918 32 60-64 Aug. 16-0ct. 31, 1918 33 65-69 Nov. 1', 1918-Jan. 15, 1919 34 70-73 Jan. 16-Mar. 31, 1919 35 74-77 April-May, 1919 36 78-79 June-July, 1919 37 80-81 August-September, 1919 38 82-83 October-November, 1919 39 84-85 December, 1919-January, 1920 40 86-87 February-March, 1920 41 88-89 April-May, 1920 42 90 June, 1920 43 91 July, 1920 44 92 August, 1920 45 93 September, 1920 46 94 October, 1920 47 95-96 November, 1920 48 97-98 December, 1920 49 99-100 Jan. -
JOHNSTOWN V. the NEGRO: SOUTHERN MIGRANTS and the EXODUS of 1923
JOHNSTOWN v. THE NEGRO: SOUTHERN MIGRANTS AND THE EXODUS OF 1923 BY RICHARD B. SHERMAN* ONE of the most significant demographic changes in American history was the vast migration of Southern Negroes to the North during and shortly after the First World War. Within a period of a few years hundreds of thousands of Negroes found opportunities in the North that heretofore had been denied to them. However, the migration also made clearer than ever before the national character of American racial problems. Particularly in the early stages, it meant that an economically and culturally oppressed minority was placed in sharp and unaccustomed contact with people in Northern communities who were unprepared for the change. This process provided a dramatic test of the devotion of Americans to their ideals of freedom and equality. In some areas there were heartening instances of successful adjustment. But there were also dismaying failures. An example of the latter was provided during the early 1920's by Johnstown, Pennsylvania, where community apathy and demagogic leadership resulted in misfortune for many of the newcomers. From 1915 through the 1920's the Negro's northward migration came in two main phases, and Johnstown was affected by both. The first phase reached a peak between 1916 and 1917, and then sharply declined for a few years. A second phase was under way by 1922 and culminated the next year. Prompted by economic and social oppression in the South, and lured by the opportunities presented by labor shortages in the North, vast numbers of Negroes moved off the land, to the cities, and into the North.] *Dr. -
Free City of Danzig
f m'"»1-*!, Of [Distributed to the Council C. 580. M . 197. 1924. I. 0d the Members of the League.] (Extract from Official Journal, November 1924.) LEAGUE OF NATIONS Geneva, October 10th, 1924. FREE CITY OF DANZIG GENERAL REPORT BY THE SECRETARY-GENERAL FOR THE PERIO D APRIL-OCTOBER 19241. In forwarding this report, which is intended to serve as a reference document, to the Council and Members of the League, the Secretary-General has the honour to draw attention o the general review of Danzig and Polish-Danzig questions for the year September 1923- iugust 1924, which is contained in the report and the supplementary report to the Fifth Assembly on the work of the Council2. I. Questions before the Council a t its 29th (June 1924) a n d 3 0 th (A u g u s t - S e p t e m b e r -O c t o b e r 1924) S e s s i o n s . In view of agreements or provisional agreements reached, as explained by the Rappor- itur at the opening of the Council session in June 1924, it was not necessary for the Council io deal during that session with one single Danzig question, although eight had originally en included on the agenda. The two questions mentioned below came before the Council at its following session 1. Quinones de Leôn, representative of Spain, acted as Rapporteur. His reports and the {solutions adopted by the Council on each question will be found in the Official Journal as nnexes to the Minutes. -
Thirty-Second Annual List of Papers
1923.] LIST OF PUBLISHED PAPERS 485 THIRTY-SECOND ANNUAL LIST OF PAPERS READ BEFORE THE AMERICAN MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY AND SUBSEQUENTLY PUBLISHED, INCLUDING REFERENCES TO THE PLACES OF PUBLICATION ALEXANDER, J. W. A proof and extension of the Jordan-Brouwer separa tion theorem. Read April 29, 1916. Transactions of this Society, vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 333-349; June, 1922. Invariant points of a surface transformation of given class. Read Dec. 28, 1922. Transactions of this Society, vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 173- 184; April, 1923. BARNETT, I. A. Differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 172-190; July, 1922. Linear partial differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918, and April 24, 1920. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 42-53; Jan., 1923. BELL, E. T. On restricted systems of higher indeterminate equations. Read (San Francisco) June 18, 1920. Transactions of this Society, vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 483-488; Oct., 1921. Anharmonic polynomial generalizations of the numbers of Bernoulli and Euler. Read (San Francisco) April 9, 1921. Transactions of this Society, vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 89-112; Sept., 1922. Periodicities in the theory of partitions. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Annals of Mathematics, (2), vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 1-22; Sept., 1922. Relations between the numbers of Bernoulli, Euler, Genocchi, and Lucas. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Messenger of Mathe matics, vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 56-64, and No. 5, pp. 65-68; Aug. -
Tangled Complicities and Moral Struggles: the Haushofers, Father and Son, and the Spaces of Nazi Geopolitics
Journal of Historical Geography 47 (2015) 64e73 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Historical Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhg Feature: European Geographers and World War II Tangled complicities and moral struggles: the Haushofers, father and son, and the spaces of Nazi geopolitics Trevor J. Barnes a,* and Christian Abrahamsson b a Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada b Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo, Postboks 1096 Blindern, Oslo 0317, Norway Abstract Drawing on a biographical approach, the paper explores the tangled complicities and morally fraught relationship between the German father and son political geographers, Karl and Albrecht Haushofer, and the Nazi leadership. From the 1920s both Haushofers were influential within Nazism, although at different periods and under different circumstances. Karl Haushofer’s complicity began in 1919 with his friendship with Rudolf Hess, an undergraduate student he taught political geography at the University of Munich. Hess introduced Haushofer to Adolf Hitler the following year. In 1924 Karl provided jail-house instruction in German geopolitical theory to both men while they served an eight-and-a-half month prison term for treason following the ‘beer-hall putsch’ of November 1923. Karl’s prison lectures were significant because during that same period Hitler wrote Mein Kampf. In that tract, Hitler justifies German expansionism using Lebensraum, one of Haushofer’s key ideas. It is here that there is a potential link between German geopolitics and the subsequent course of the Second World War. Albrecht Haushofer’s complicity began in the 1930s when he started working as a diplomat for Joachim von Ribbentrop in a think-tank within the Nazi Foreign Ministry. -
Was Hitler a Darwinian?
Was Hitler a Darwinian? Robert J. Richards The University of Chicago The Darwinian underpinnings of Nazi racial ideology are patently obvious. Hitler's chapter on "Nation and Race" in Mein Kampf discusses the racial struggle for existence in clear Darwinian terms. Richard Weikart, Historian, Cal. State, Stanislaus1 Hamlet: Do you see yonder cloud that's almost in shape of a camel? Shakespeare, Hamlet, III, 2. 1. Introduction . 1 2. The Issues regarding a Supposed Conceptually Causal Connection . 4 3. Darwinian Theory and Racial Hierarchy . 10 4. The Racial Ideology of Gobineau and Chamberlain . 16 5. Chamberlain and Hitler . 27 6. Mein Kampf . 29 7. Struggle for Existence . 37 8. The Political Sources of Hitler’s Anti-Semitism . 41 9. Ethics and Social Darwinism . 44 10. Was the Biological Community under Hitler Darwinian? . 46 11. Conclusion . 52 1. Introduction Several scholars and many religiously conservative thinkers have recently charged that Hitler’s ideas about race and racial struggle derived from the theories of Charles Darwin (1809-1882), either directly or through intermediate sources. So, for example, the historian Richard Weikart, in his book From Darwin to Hitler (2004), maintains: “No matter how crooked the road was from Darwin to Hitler, clearly Darwinism and eugenics smoothed the path for Nazi ideology, especially for the Nazi 1 Richard Weikart, “Was It Immoral for "Expelled" to Connect Darwinism and Nazi Racism?” (http://www.discovery.org/a/5069.) 1 stress on expansion, war, racial struggle, and racial extermination.”2 In a subsequent book, Hitler’s Ethic: The Nazi Pursuit of Evolutionary Progress (2009), Weikart argues that Darwin’s “evolutionary ethics drove him [Hitler] to engage in behavior that the rest of us consider abominable.”3 Other critics have also attempted to forge a strong link between Darwin’s theory and Hitler’s biological notions. -
Chronology of Events 1918 – 1938
Chronology of Events 1918-1938 1918: Czechoslovakia is established after the fall of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire following the First World War. The country is made up of two groups of Slavic peoples, the Czechs and the Slovaks. 1920: The Treaty of Versailles, in which Germany is held responsible for World War I and its consequences, is signed. The treaty deals harshly with a defeated Germany and includes territorial, military, financial and general provisions, including the demilitarization and 15-year occupation of the Rhineland (area between France and Germany), limitations on German armed forces and reparations of 6,600 million pounds. 1921: Adolf Hitler becomes leader of National Socialist German Workers (Nazi) Party. 1923: Beer Hall Putsch (Hitler’s attempt to overthrow regional government in Munich) is unsuccessful and Hitler is jailed. 1925: Mein Kampf (My Struggle), Hitler’s book, is published. 1933: Japan attacks China. The Nazi party gains majority in the German Reichstag and Hitler is named Chancellor. The Reichstag building burns in a “mysterious” fire and all other political parties are abolished. Hitler denounces the Treaty of Versailles. There are public book burnings in Germany. Anti-Jewish laws are passed in Germany: no kosher butchering, no Jewish Civil servants, no Jewish lawyers, quotas for Jews in universities. Any Germans holding non-Nazi political meetings are subject to arrest and imprisonment in concentration camps (the first is Oranienburg, outside of Berlin). Dachau is built as concentration-work camp (specific death camps not yet built, but elderly, those who were very young, disabled or sick have difficulty surviving harsh conditions of camps). -
Review of Economic Conditions, 1924-1933
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: German Business Cycles, 1924-1933 Volume Author/Editor: Carl T. Schmidt Volume Publisher: NBER Volume ISBN: 0-87014-024-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/schm34-1 Publication Date: 1934 Chapter Title: Review of Economic Conditions, 1924-1933 Chapter Author: Carl T. Schmidt Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4934 Chapter pages in book: (p. 25 - 114) CHAPTER TWO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, 1924—1933 A. The Course of the Post-Inflation Business Cycles 1.DEPRESSION,HALTING REVIVAL, DEFINITE RECOVERY, 1924-1925 Thestabilization of German currency tore aside the dense veil of paper marks that had obscured the Various business journals, monographs and official reports constitute the source for the materials presented in Part A. Particularly suggestive were Reports of the Agent General for Reparation Payments, 1925—30 (Berlin,1925—30); James W. Angell, The Recovery of Germany; Institut für Konjunkturforschung, Vierteljahrshefte zur Konjunkturforschung, \'ols. '—7 (Reimar Hobbing, Berlin, 1926—32); Fritz Naphtaii, Abbau und Aufbau: Rückblick auf das Wirtschaftsjahr 1925 So- cietats-Druckerei, Frankfurt a.M., 1926); Reichskreditgesellschaft, A-G., Germany's Economic Development, semi-annual analyses, 1926—32 (Ber- lin, 1926—32); C. L. Roedler, Grundzuge der deutschen K,onjunhturbeweg- ung, 1920—25(Frankfurta.M., 1926); Erich Welter, Wachstum: Die deutsche Wirtschaft im Jahre 1927; and Stockung: Die Wirt- schaft im Jahre 1929(FrankfurterSocietäts-Druckerei, Frankfurt a.M., 1928 and 1930); also Dreifache Krise... (Societäts-Verlag,Frankfurt a.M., 1931). 25] features of German economy. -
The Treaty of Versailles, Inflation and Stabilization
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: German Business Cycles, 1924-1933 Volume Author/Editor: Carl T. Schmidt Volume Publisher: NBER Volume ISBN: 0-87014-024-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/schm34-1 Publication Date: 1934 Chapter Title: The Treaty of Versailles, Inflation and Stabilization Chapter Author: Carl T. Schmidt Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4933 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 24) GERMAN BUSINESS CYCLES 1924—1933 CHAPTER ONE THE TREATY OF VERSAILLES, INFLATION AND STABILIZATION THE fateful decade of war, revolution and currency inflation— 1914—24—witnessed sweeping changes in the economic life of Germany. On the eve of the World War, Germany was one of the great economic powers of the world. In industrial activity, in world commerce, in international finance, in the aggres- siveness and resourcefulness of its business leaders, it challenged or surpassed every one of its rivals. Tenyears later the formerly powerful German economy was perilously near the brink of chaos. The tremendous spiritual and material demands of a disastrous war,the acceptance of thesevere provisions of the treaty of peace, the domestic in- stability attending political revolution, and the catastrophic currency inflation—these factors had wrought havoc in the business life of the nation. Some notion of the economic consequences of Germany's defeat in the World War and of its plunge into the maelstrom of inflation is essential 3] to an appreciation of the character of the fluctua- tions in its economy after the return to more stable conditions, for certain peculiar features of these fluctuations were intimately related to structural changes imposed upon it by the War, the peace treaty and the currency inflation. -
The Ends of Four Big Inflations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation: Causes and Effects Volume Author/Editor: Robert E. Hall Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-31323-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/hall82-1 Publication Date: 1982 Chapter Title: The Ends of Four Big Inflations Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452 Chapter pages in book: (p. 41 - 98) The Ends of Four Big Inflations Thomas J. Sargent 2.1 Introduction Since the middle 1960s, many Western economies have experienced persistent and growing rates of inflation. Some prominent economists and statesmen have become convinced that this inflation has a stubborn, self-sustaining momentum and that either it simply is not susceptible to cure by conventional measures of monetary and fiscal restraint or, in terms of the consequent widespread and sustained unemployment, the cost of eradicating inflation by monetary and fiscal measures would be prohibitively high. It is often claimed that there is an underlying rate of inflation which responds slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal measures.1 Evidently, this underlying rate of inflation is the rate of inflation that firms and workers have come to expect will prevail in the future. There is momentum in this process because firms and workers supposedly form their expectations by extrapolating past rates of inflation into the future. If this is true, the years from the middle 1960s to the early 1980s have left firms and workers with a legacy of high expected rates of inflation which promise to respond only slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal policy actions. -
Yesterday's News: Media Framing of Hitler's Early Years, 1923-1924
92 — The Elon Journal of Undergraduate Research in Communications, Vol. 6, No. 1 • Spring 2015 Yesterday’s News: Media Framing of Hitler’s Early Years, 1923-1924 Katherine Blunt Journalism and History Elon University Abstract This research used media framing theory to assess newspaper coverage of Hitler published in The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, and The Washington Post between 1923 and 1924. An analysis of about 200 articles revealed “credible” and “non-credible” frames relating to his political influence. Prior to Hitler’s trial for treason in 1924, the credible frame was slightly more prevalent. Following his subsequent conviction, the non-credible frame dominated coverage, with reports often presenting Hitler’s failure to over- throw the Bavarian government as evidence of his lack of political skill. This research provides insight into the way American media cover foreign leaders before and after a tipping point—one or more events that call into question their political efficacy. I. Introduction The resentment, suspicion, and chaos that defined global politics during the Great arW continued into the 1920s. Germany plunged into a state of political and economic turmoil following the ratification of the punitive Treaty of Versailles, and the Allies watched with trepidation as it struggled to make reparations pay- ments. The bill — equivalent to 33 billion dollars then and more than 400 billion dollars today — grew increas- ingly daunting as the value of the mark fell from 400 to the dollar in 1922 to 7,000 to the dollar at the start of 1923, when Bavaria witnessed the improbable rise of an Austrian-born artist-turned-politician who channeled German outrage into a nationalistic, anti-Semitic movement that came to be known as the Nazi Party.1 Ameri- can media outlets, intent on documenting the chaotic state of post-war Europe, took notice of Adolf Hitler as he attracted a following and, through their coverage, essentially introduced him to the American public.