PRIMAKOV NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (IMEMO) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2016 Preface by Alexander Dynkin Editors Alexey Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev Editorial Assistant Tatiana Anichkina Moscow IMEMO 2017 УДК 327 ББК 64.4(0) Rus95 Rus95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security. IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2016 / Ed. by Alexey Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev. – Moscow, IMEMO, 2017. – 205 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0506-2 DOI 10.20542/978-5-9535-0506-2 The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2016 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, transformation of relations between Russia and NATO, foreign and defence policy of the European Union, evolution of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. This year’s edition also highlights issues of the conflict in Ukraine, military-political situation in Syria and Iraq, nuclear cooperation between Russia and the United States, China’s maritime activities, modern biosecurity, and military-political relations between Russia and CIS countries. To view IMEMO publications, please visit our website at http://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535-0506-2 ИМЭМО РАН, 2017 CONTENTS PREFACE ............................................................................................... 7 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS ......................................................................................... 9 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES TREATY: THIRTY YEARS LATER ................................................................... 15 Alexey ARBATOV Domino effect ....................................................................................... 16 Motives for withdrawing from the Treaty ............................................ 18 Threat posed by third countries ............................................................ 20 Responding to missile defence ............................................................. 23 Ways to revive the Treaty ..................................................................... 25 2. RUSSIA-NATO RELATIONS: TRANSFORMATION OF STAGNATION .............................................................................. 30 Sergey OZNOBISHCHEV, Marianna YEVTODYEVA Russia and NATO: declarations and reality ......................................... 30 Russia-NATO relations and evolution of European security ............... 39 3. EUROPEAN UNION ON THE WAY TO STRATEGIC AUTONOMY ....................................................................................... 48 Nadezhda ARBATOVA Why is it imperative for the EU to build its own defence capability .............................................................................................. 48 Global Security Strategy: EU foreign and defence policy revised ................................................................................................... 51 Treaty framework of the security and defence policy and practical steps towards its implementation ........................................... 56 4 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 4. CSTO: THE EVOLUTION OF SECURITY FUNCTIONS AND STRUCTURES ........................................................................... 64 Alexander NIKITIN Taking stocks before the CSTO’s 15th anniversary ............................. 64 The system of permanent operations and military exercises ................ 69 The issues of internal unity and common policy within the CSTO .............................................................................................. 74 Peacekeeping functions and cooperation with the UN ......................... 78 CSTO in the system of international intergovernmental organisations ......................................................................................... 81 The outlook for CSTO .......................................................................... 87 PART II. EXPERT INSIGHTS 5. CONFLICT IN UKRAINE: IN SEARCH FOR WAYS TO BREAK THE DEADLOCK ................................................................. 93 Nadezhda ARBATOVA The reasons for the stagnation of the Minsk II process ........................ 94 Engaging the United States in the peace process ................................. 97 Ways to facilitate Minsk II implementation in practice ....................... 98 6. MILITARY-POLITICAL SITUATION IN SYRIA AND IRAQ ......................................................................................... 104 Stanislav IVANOV Military-political conflict in Syria and possible scenarios for its resolution ....................................................................................... 107 The situation in Iraq and prospects of its development ...................... 111 7. NUCLEAR COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND USA .......................................................................................... 125 Anatoly DIAKOV US-Russian PMDA: background and preparation for implementation ................................................................................... 127 The consequences of the PMDA suspension ...................................... 135 The need for the US-Russian nuclear cooperation ............................. 137 CONTENTS 5 8. CHINA’S POLICY AND THE INTERNATIONAL LAW OF THE SEA ...................................................................................... 146 Pavel GUDEV China and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ....................... 147 The concept of internal historic waters .............................................. 149 The problem of classification of island formations ............................ 153 International political consequences of the decision of The Hague Court of Arbitration ......................................................... 156 9. BIOSECURITY IN THE MODERN WORLD .............................. 161 Sergey ZAVRIEV 10. MILITARY-POLITICAL RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CIS COUNTRIES ..................................................................... 168 Vadim VLADIMIROV, Marianna YEVTODYEVA Western region .................................................................................... 168 South Caucuses ................................................................................... 173 Central Asia ........................................................................................ 178 PART III. DOCUMENTS AND REFERENCE MATERIALS 11. KEY DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON NATIONAL SECURITY, DEFENCE, AND ARMS CONTROL (JANUARY-DECEMBER 2016) ....................................................... 191 Sergey TSELITSKY Legislative acts ................................................................................... 191 Normative acts .................................................................................... 195 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS ...................................................... 203 PREFACE The Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations presents its Special Supplement Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2016. In this edition, the Institute’s leading experts analyze a number of the past year’s key events and trends in arms control and international security. Although the Ukrainian crisis has become less acute and, to a certain degree, latent, the situation in ensuring security, arms limitation and arms control has deteriorated increasingly. After the New START Treaty was concluded in Prague in 2010, no progress has been made in this area, and so far, nothing has suggested that either this treaty will be extended or that any agreements on further reductions will be concluded. In the current situation, no quick progress can virtually be made unless the leaders of the United States and Russia engage in constructive dialogue. The state of this dialogue has allowed no optimism as to the possibility of either quick progress in arms limitation and reduction, or of advances in other spheres of arms control. We believe that it is absolutely essential that this book should remind of the recent positive experience of cooperation between the United States and Russian in the nuclear sphere, as it remains an important factor contributing to the two powers’ collaboration in the future. Increasing strain has been put on the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Both Washington and Moscow have been accusing each other of infringing this vital instrument. One of the key articles of the IMEMO’s Special Supplement is closely examining the critical situation around the INF Treaty and the ways to overcome it. The situation along Russia’s western border which is also a line of contact between Russia and NATO, has grown extremely tense. The increasing number and scale of maneuvers, including in the border area, and unprecedented, since the Cold War times, direct military standoff cause a dangerous buildup of tension. 8 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Defence efforts in Europe have developed following new patterns. After President Donald Trump came to power, the likelihood of defence cooperation between the US and the rest of NATO members has diminished. Due to this, and a number of other factors, the efforts to shape a more independent