Gas Future Operability Planning 2016
GB gas transmission
NOVEMBER 2016 Gas Future Operability Planning November 2016
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We are in the midst of an energy revolution. The economic landscape, developments in technology and consumer behaviour are changing at an unprecedented rate, creating more opportunities than ever for our industry.
Our Gas Future Operability There are some important choices Planning (GFOP) publication, to make about our priorities for along with our other System investment and focus for innovation Operator publications, aims to in order to provide long-term value encourage and inform debate, for UK gas consumers and to ensure leading to changes that ensure we continue to meet your needs. We a secure, sustainable and must focus on the energy system as affordable energy future. a whole rather than on its component parts to develop robust and adaptable This is a first draft to demonstrate solutions for the future. what this document could look like. We will use this as a building block I hope that you find this document, to develop a more collaborative along with our other System Operator publication going forward. We want publications, useful as a catalyst for your views, knowledge and insight wider debate. For more information to shape future editions of this about all our publications, please see publication and to help us to better section 1.2. understand the future of energy impact on gas transmission. We look Please share your views forward to engaging with you over with us by getting in touch: the next year. [email protected]
The current and future direction of Andy Malins energy policy and the shape, size Head of Network Capability and mix of the energy network in the and Operations, Gas UK is increasingly uncertain. Therefore we must consider the different and changing roles gas can play in both the short and long term to understand how our role might change; how the use of our asset base may evolve to meet changing customer needs and how market developments may impact the commercial regime. Gas Future Operability Planning November 2016 02
Contents
Executive summary...... 04 Next steps...... 42 1.1 Executive summary...... 04 4.1 Next steps...... 42 1.2 How does the Gas Future Operability Planning publication fit in?...... 06 1.3 Key messages...... 08 1.4 Future Gas Future Operability Planning editions...... 10 1.5 Next steps for the Gas Future Operability Planning...... 11 Appendix 1 – Analysis assumptions and methodology...... 46 5.1 Analysis assumptions...... 46 5.1.1 Power Market assumptions...... 46 5.1.2 Demand assumptions...... 47 5.1.3 Supply assumptions...... 47 5.2 Analysis methodology...... 48 Changing energy landscape...... 14 5.2.1 Analysis setup...... 48 2.1 Changing energy landscape...... 14 5.2.2 Analysis focus...... 49 2.1.1 EU referendum...... 15 5.3 Analysis results...... 50 2.1.2 Government perspective on future 5.3.1 Power Market Model outputs...... 50 power generation...... 15 5.3.2 Gas Market Model outputs – demand...... 51 2.2 National transmission system overview...... 17 5.3.3 Gas Market Model outputs – supply...... 52 2.3 What challenges are we currently seeing 5.3.4 CCGT swing...... 53 on the National Transmission System?...... 18 5.3.5 2017 analysis results summary...... 54 2.3.1 System imbalances...... 18 5.3.6 2023 analysis results summary...... 55 2.3.2 Gas system stock levels and 5.3.7 2030 analysis results summary...... 56 system pressures...... 19 5.3.8 Regional sensitivities...... 56 2.3.3 Short-notice changes in customer Appendix 2 – Glossary...... 57 requirements at peak times of system maintenance...... 26 2.4 What are our Future Energy Scenarios showing us?...... 29 2.5 System flexibility...... 32
Gas and electricity interactions – Future energy generation...... 36 3.1 Gas and electricity interactions – Future energy generation...... 36 3.2 Analysis results summary...... 37 3.3 What next for our analysis?...... 40 Chapter one 03 04
Executive summaryExecutive
one Chapter Chapter 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter one Executive summary of Energy suite of documents of suite Energy of Future other our and (GTYS) Year Statement Ten 1.1) Gas the Figure (see complement and uncertainties. The GFOP needs, future operational challenges and and quantify future gas transmission network which all market can discuss participants in vehicle aclear have not do we Currently, safe and secure NTS now into secure safe and and the future. to we ensure continue aresilient, toprocesses maintain operational and to making modifications in our decision way we to you respond leading other market and signals, GFOP The our processes. and operation may that these to pose the challenges NTS and out to 2050 of Transmission the National capability future (NTS) System the how maydescribes your affect requirements changing The Executive summary 1.1 1 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 across the NTS. physical investments (assets) are considered (rules), operational arrangements (tools) and make sure that the right commercial options to parties interested all with to work We want http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/future-of-energy/ quantify theeffect onthefuture NTS highlight changeswhichwillrequire usto collaborative soallinterested partiescan editions ofthisdocumenttobemore review andcomment.Ouraimisforfuture This isafirstdraftofthisdocumentforyour
Gas Future Operability Planning (GFOP) Planning FutureGas Operability publication will fill that gap gap that fill will 1 (see section 1.2). section (see
elements ofthefuture energy landscape. stakeholders, believeare themostimportant and focusonwhatyou,ourcustomers hear yourviewssothisdocumentcanevolve capability andoperability. We are keento current and future changes. to both adapt and respond quickly more us to allow to flexible more to be needs NTS the operate and plan we way The changing at an unprecedented rate. is operate all we which in landscape securing our energy future. The energy Operator and Transmission Owner in System gas as role akey We have will change the the will change
04 Chapter one
05
UK gas transmission Gas Ten Year Year Gas Ten Statement 2016 NOVEMBER 2016 GTYS how we are toresponding these impacts what options takingwe are forward what changes makingwe are to our decision- making processes what changes makingwe are to our operational processes and what the consequences couldbe on service.our In outline: will we Actions What action we need take to now in our investments or processes etc.
will GFOP what the the what consequences couldbe on service.our what capabilitywhat potential what options we are aware of when they are are they when occur to likely required is their extent – or localised national issues we have identified operability what The allow us to clearly more articulate: Network Impact Network then assess We and impact the document what this could mean network our for and our customers. problemsWhat we may encounter and what possible there solutions may be. Anything decidewe take to on further action in will detailed be the GTYS.
will will GFOP provide a forstarting point and innovation collaboration. discuss potential discuss (rules, options tools and assets) quantify capability requirements identify and quantify risk operability understand impact the Analysis thenWe complete network our basedanalysis scenarios the on assumptionsand we have made. The then help us to:
on first e.g. areas of greatest uncertainty or impact on the future of gas, network our Assumptions needWe make to assumptions the about uncertainmore the of elements and which future areas focus to customers. and will allow you to: you allow will
GFOP explore options/opportunities for for options/opportunities explore working. collaborative we should look at challenge our assumptions our challenge provide evidence for other areas might change might tell us what you think might happen tell us how your use of the NTS Scenarios useWe our Energy Future Scenarios as the starting point for all our network future planning. The Figure 1.1 Operability Planning document The role of the Gas Future 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter one Executive summary our customers. planning, which will benefit are we investment the about network analysis and industry energy the to inform scenarios these We use 2050. to out projections demand and provide supply and and affordability) sustainability (security of supply, on the energy trilemma are scenarios These based industry. energy the across from stakeholders from input involves and year every (FES). Scenarios Energy Future the is publications flagship The point starting for our for change. debate, and making decision intended to yearthat we are every beacatalyst produce enabler, an as facilitator. and informer SO publications The (SO), placed Operator System future. As we perfectly are to energy make that together sure we our shared secure working with you and our industry debate across energy to role play in leading the important an has Grid National publication fit in? How the does Gas Future Operability Planning 1.2 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 JULY 2015 Scenarios Future Energy UK gasandelectricitytransmission
The FES The is published is published
Reports Summer operability inoperability our and transmission capability of the gas and electricity view long-term our We build consultations and reports. summer and winter by complemented are and business planning activities and informsupport your publications are designed to winter. These or summer coming the for demand and supply electricity and gas of aview to provide season each of ahead them We publish transmission, we produce the around gas and electricity For short-term challenges Report Outlook Winter 2 015/16 every six months. months. six every and Winter Outlook 7 April2016 Report Outlook Summer 2 016
Future Energy Future Energy
(GTYS) (GTYS) The thatindustry can inform debate. information across the energy your views and share these publications, we seek publications. To help shape FrameworkOperability (SOF) and (GFOP) Planning (NOA), Gas Future Operability Network Options Assessment Statements and (ETYS Scenarios (FES), Ten Year also It on. working currently are we projects on update GTYS The (NTS). National Transmission System capacity is available on the gas exit and entry where and what NOVEMBER 2015 Statement 2015 Gas Ten Year UK gastransmission Gas Ten Year Statement Ten Year Statement Gas describes in detail describes provides an
System System GTYS), GTYS),
06 Chapter one 07
and
uses the publications. publications. Future EnergyFuture EnergyFuture
publications. System Operability System System Operability System UK electricity transmission System Operability Framework 2015 NOVEMBER 2015 Framework (SOF) Future Energy Scenarios Scenarios Energy Future requirements future examine to for the operability of GB describes It networks. electricity operational in developments information provides and needs that can help towards technology, new developing that solutions and codes operability. system improve If you are interested in finding consider please more, out our reading Network Options Assessment Assessment Options Network (NOA) GB electricity transmission transmission electricity GB network. If you are interested in finding out more about and capability electricity consider please operability, our reading The Scenarios (FES), Electricity Electricity (FES), Scenarios (ETYS) Statement Year Ten and Framework (SOF) Ten Electricity (FES), Scenarios (ETYS) Statement Year
System builds applies . You can. You and Future EnergyFuture
Network Options Options Network publications. publications. and presents the Network Options Options Network Electricity Ten Year Year Electricity Ten UK electricity transmission UK gas electricity transmission Network Options Assessment 2015 Electricity Ten Year Year Electricity Ten Statement 2015 FEBRUARY 2016 FEBRUARY NOVEMBER 2015 Assessment (NOA) Statement (ETYS)Statement to Scenarios Energy Future highlights and models network shortfalls capacity on the Electricity National GB the (NETS) System Transmission over the next ten years. If you are interested in finding out investment network the about recommendations that we these meet will believe the across requirements transmission electricity GB consider please network, reading Assessment (NOA) find out more about the electricity of view longer-term capability operability and by our reading The The Operability Framework (SOF) upon the future capacity future the upon described inrequirements ETYS network investment recommendations that we believe will meet these the across requirements Scenarios (FES) (FES) Scenarios
may publications. publications. publication publication publications. publications. Gas Ten Year Year Ten Gas and Gas Future Operability Future Energy Scenarios Scenarios Energy Future Gas Future Operability Operability Future Gas UK gas transmission Future Operability Future Planning 2016 NOVEMBER 2016 (FES) Our Planning (GFOP) Future Energy Scenarios (FES), (FES), Scenarios Energy Future and (GFOP) Planning ten years. If you are interested in finding out more about provides our viewof the andcapability requirements development network required be will decisions that for the NTS over the next the longer-term view of gas of view longer-term the capability operability, and our reading consider please 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas describes how changing describes how requirements affect the future capability of the NTS out to 2050. It also considers how affect may requirements these our and operation NTS processes. The GFOP highlight a need change to the way we respond you to or This, signals. market other in turn, may lead us modify to processes operational our and decision making. This making. decision and publication helps make to sure we continue maintain to a resilient, safe and secure NTS now and into the future. If you are interested in finding out reading consider please more, our Statement (GTYS) Chapter one Executive summary project level,of higher The the NTS. of strategic,future gas more operability and the capability may affect requirements of how yourquantitative understanding changing of will the future provide adetailed assessment Our Key messages 1.3 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 changing future. changing how and we work together can forward to adapt to this Changing energylandscape requirements. meet theirowncustomers’ they takegasinorder to flexibility inhowandwhen customers wantadditional Our distributionnetwork electricity market. to changesinthe shorter noticetorespond gas onmore quicklyat to takegasoff andbring terminals) wanttobeable storage sitesandentry interconnectors, industrials, customers (power stations, Our direct connect
will focus on the role the gas NTSwill will focus the have gas the on role going the network. the network. in advancetobalance to investortakeactions certainty ontheneed We nowhave less changes were required. from themarketthat to giveusclearsignals flow. Theseauctionsused a shipper’s intentionto auctions nolongerindicate Longer-term capacity within theNTS). (volume ofgasstored gas systemstocks customers whichdepletes commercially responsive balancing byourmore reconciliations ofdaily trend towards later There isanotable
flexibility to manage. flexibility tomanage. greater operational of flowsand requires reduces thepredictability day tothenext.This variation offlowfrom one supplies canmeanagreat Diversity andextentof demand levels. distribution ofsupplyand change in the geographical seeing more rapidratesof Operationally weare February 2015. of 38.5 ago withthelargest swing treble thesizeofadecade and theyare, onaverage, gas systemstockswings magnitude ofwithin-day There isanincreasing mcm occurring in mcm occurringin
08 Chapter one
09 4
(customer low 3 Gas will be required out Gas will be required to 2050 and beyond for domestic heating, industrial customers, power generation. continue to will We innovate and evolve the NTS as the UK progresses the 2050 targets. towards forefront at the are We gasof developing green solutions that aim to deliver value for money using the existing assets – for example project CLoCC the end of the gas day, coinciding with the in totalreduction generation demand after the daily peak. risk if fluctuationsGrowing generationin renewable in magnitude andgrow coincide with the start or systemgas daily the of end stock swing. CCGT swing alone is unlikely to cause system operability challenges. The highest levels of CCGT likely to occurswing are when wind generation rapidly atincreases cost connections).
We are committed to committed are We adapting our existing NTS operationalinfrastructure, and commercial processes they to ensure agreements the most efficientremain means ofand reliable transporting gas from supply terminal to offtake. Gas will be crucial to acontinuing to provide at supply energy secure best value for consumers while we transition to a low carbon future. operate is The way CCGTs expected to become more as theirunpredictable generate to requirement with more will correlate variable renewable generation (wind, solar etc.). will be used CCGTs in combinationmore with other electricity system balancing tools storage,(interconnectors, other generators and demand-side response). The volume of gas system stock swing attributable to CCGT operation has the considerablyscope to grow into the future.
2 GW). GW of new combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) capacity is expected to connect to the NTS 28 (currently By 2040, between 15–38 Gas plays a vital role todayGas plays a vital role energy secure in providing to our homes, supplies businesses and industry. On an annual basis, gas 2.5 times asprovides (TWhs) as much energy electricity which includes ~70% of heat. Gas and electricity interactions – Future energy generation – Future Gas and electricity interactions Future of gas Future http://futureofgas.uk/ http://projectclocc.com/ website: CLoCC Project http://nationalgrid.com/fes 2016, FES 2 3 4 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter one Executive summary your perspective. elements of the future energy landscape from important most the on focusing are we ensure to editions future into input your We want variables in combination. within-day the of more at to look required is work Further capability. and operability NTS within-day variables to assess the impact on in isolation and in combination with other demand within-day CCGT at looked We have made. have we assumptions analysis the on GFOP first our in upon focused have we topic the on feedback your to get keen We are document could look like. GFOP future for block abuilding is document This Future 1.4 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 s and provides an outline for what this this what for outline an provides s and Gas Future Operability Planning and and
of the following topics: more or one of impacts the assessing on focus could we editions future For [email protected] Let us know what you think, contact us: Commercially responsive supplies. of long-term obligated capacity. ahead/within-day bookings instead Exit day on reliant more becoming Customers Charging regime changes. Capacity and connection changes. of supply. security to boost NTS the on quality gas of range awider to accept pressure Growing and electricity interactions on operability. Clearer understanding of impacts of gas editions
10 Chapter one 11
GTYS if you published Nov GFOP & and we will be Q2/Q3 Run analysis
. Get in touch with us via
launch
Jul FES [email protected] would like get to involved. will We be asking you would like us engage to with you going of our 2017 GFOP of our 2017 you for opinions on the most appropriate way forward at this event. in early 2017 wherein early we will 2017 be seeking your views GFOP on the 2016 development the with help your for asking Mar Follow up GFOP to consultation event
.
2017
Q1 GFOP consultation event will be published be will . The next key step is Dec Start our process feedback
GTYS published GFOP & Nov 2016 Figure 1.2 Road map for the GFOP 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas We haveWe already started talking some to of you at the Gas Futures Group, our Gas Customer Working Transmission Gas the and Seminar Group. will We be holding a consultation event to getto as much feedback from you as possible on this first draft. The GFOP Statement Year Gas our alongside Ten The timeline below outlines what we plan on plan we what outlines below timeline The doing next with the GFOP 1.5 Planning Operability Future Gas the for Next steps Chapter one Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 12 Chapter two
13 14
Changing energy landscape two Chapter Chapter 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing ensure weensure continue to your meet needs. to to and provide long-term value consumers for gas UK for investmentpriorities focus and for innovation in order to choices make our about important some are There may base evolve. ofthe use our asset how how and might change our role toterm understand long and play can in both gas the short roles different we the therefore consider must uncertain; increasingly in the is UK network sizeshape, mix of and the energy policy the and of energy direction future and current The landscape energy Changing 2.1 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 Key insights
(volume of gas stored within the NTS). (volume ofgasstored withintheNTS). which depletesgassystemstocks more commercially responsive customers reconciliations ofdailybalancingbyour There isanotabletrend towards later their owncustomers’requirements. when theytakegasinorder tomeet want additionalflexibilityinhowand Our distributionnetworkcustomers to changesintheelectricitymarket. more quicklyatshorternoticetorespond be abletotakegasoff andbringgason storage sitesandentryterminals)wantto stations, interconnectors, industrials, Our direct connectcustomers(power
advance to balance the network. advance tobalancethenetwork. on theneedtoinvestortakeactionsin were required. We nowhavelesscertainty signals from themarketthatchanges These auctionsusedtogiveusclear indicate ashipper’s intentiontoflow. Longer-term capacityauctionsnolonger flexibility to manage. flexibility tomanage. of flowsand requires greater operational the next.Thisreduces thepredictability a great variationofflowfrom onedayto Diversity andextentofsuppliescanmean distribution ofsupplyanddemand levels. rates ofchangeinthegeographical Operationally weare seeingmore rapid 38.5 a decadeagowiththelargest swingof they are, onaverage,treble thesizeof within-day gassystemstockswings and There isanincreasing magnitudeof mcm occurringin February2015.
14 Chapter two 15 between now and where 2025, they are likely connectto and what system constraints, if any, we might face. This may allow us identify to more favourable areas on thenetwork for future make can we ensure will which connections, use of and continue adapt to the transmission network avoid to any unnecessary investment, making the make best use of our current infrastructure assets. partners and stakeholders. believe We our provide (FES) Scenarios Energy Future current a range of credible futures cover to a majority of the potential impacts that exit the UK’s from the EU may have on the energy sector.
mcm within the next ten years 1 The largest within-day gas system stock change seen in February 2015.The largest within-day gas system stock change and increasing a day is The average change in gas system stocks across the magnitude of large within-day changes is increasing. 38.5 Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change speech, November 18 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ 2015: amber-rudds-speech-on-a-new-direction-for-uk-energy-policy to replaceto coal-fired power stationsexpected closeto It is 2025. by important for us to number increasing an impact what understand of CCGT connections may have on the gas transmission network. need We understand to how many connections there are likely be to 1 The Government stated in November that 2015 “gas is central our to energy secure future” and that imperative “it’s that we get new gas-fired built” stations power 2.1.2 generation perspective on future power Government The recent European Union (EU) referendum decision does not change how we operate 2.1.1 referendum EU the UK energy system or security of supply. areWe fully committed our to ongoing European our with projects investment 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing November 2015 in also Statement, Autumn annual the In key to decarbonising electricity generation. CCS, nuclear and renewable technologies are target To by 2050. this 1990 meet levels from 80% least by at emissions reducing of target binding legally to the committed has UK The 3 2 5 4 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 policy changes have yet to be developed” detailed design and implementation of CCS decarbonisation of the UK” although “the CCS has a potential role in the long-term “that is view Government’s The UK. the in development CCS to delay expected is This removed. was (CCS) Storage and competition funding for Carbon Capture Amber Rudd, Carbon Capture and Storage letter to Angus MacNeil, January 2015, http://www.parliament.uk/documents/ commons-committees/energy-and-climate-change/DECC-CCS-announcement-SOS-TO-CHAIR.pdf January MacNeil, toAngus letter Storage and Capture Carbon Rudd, Amber market-news-detail/other/12597443.html DECC Annual Autumn Statement 25 November 2015: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/ Amended.pdf Energy Technology Institute (2014), http://www.eti.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/3427-CCS-Brochure-Lores-AW------uk.html UKERC (2016), The future role of natural gas in the UK: http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/publications/the-future-role-of-natural-gas-in-the- in 2015/16).InMay2016,theUK’s electricity electricity transmissionconnectedcapacity reductions incapacity(~5 closures, powerstationmothballingor have resulted inearlierthananticipatedplant economic conditionsforthermalgenerators energy policyinNovember2015,thecurrent statementon Despite theGovernment mix generation on Economic impact Spotlight: 2 , the £1 billion ring-fenced ring-fenced £1 billion , the GW reduction in GW reduction in
3 .
solution as although it emits less CO power generation is not a viable long-term viable alternative with a reliable track record. only the currently is gas renewables; of reliability uncertainties associated with the long-term also are There uncertain. more fuel alternative carbon alower as gas of future the made has funding this to remove decision Government’s possible by2022ratherthan2025. than previously thoughtwithclosures plant maycloseatamore acceleratedrate This couldmeanthatcoal-fired generation a costadvantage. gas-fired generationisstillexpectedtohave competition betweenthetwofuels,although winter 2016/17.Thismayincrease price coal andgasispredicted tonarrow over power stations.Thepricedifference between increasingly uneconomicaltoruncoal-fired first time.Fallingpowerpriceshavemadeit anycoalforthe was suppliedwithoutburning (2016) Centre Research Energy UK by the A study by between 50 and 100 per cent 100 per and 50 by between to increase estimated are costs but met be can target 2050 the CCS Without option. carbon low not a is it generation coal-fired 4 concluded that without CCS, gas-fired gas-fired CCS, without that concluded 5 . The . The 2 than than
16 Chapter two 17
. As part of the GFOP 6 eight Distribution Networks (DNs) for onward onward for (DNs) Networks Distribution eight industrial and domestic to transportation customers, or directly to connected customers including storage sites, power stations, large interconnectors and consumers industrial (pipelines other to countries). As GB gas transmission System Operator gas transport to responsibility our is it (SO) from supplypoints exit to offtake points safely, efficiently and reliably.We manage the including network the of operation day-to-day maintaining demand, and supply balancing system pressures and ensuring gas quality standards are met. your of understanding current our outline We requirements in Chapter 2 of our Gas Ten StatementYear (GTYS) we want get to a better understanding of your future requirements of the NTS. Please stakeholder upcoming our in involved get engagement events (see Chapter let to 4) us know what your future requirements are. This will ensure the assumptions we are using as part of our future network planning process are appropriate and reflect your needs. to to t a t e ra he eth rpe ra ra tr t re tr p t ter a ter e t r a t ee e km of pipelines, operated at t er t
rt t arr at http://nationalgrid.com/gtys r a e to 6 Current NTS map Figure 2.1 The National Transmission System (NTS) is (NTS) System Transmission National The made up of 7,600 2.2 National transmission overview system pressures which of up 94 to bar, transport gas from coastal terminals and storage facilities to exit offtake points from the system (Figure 2.1). theAt exit offtake points, gas is transferred to 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing the end of day. of end the at balanced is network the to ensure action abalancing to take need we if to determine information this We use customers. by our provided notifications flow on based is which balance market end-of-day the at We look day. gas next the of start the for ready restored, are levels stock system gas and pressures system that ensures This demand. total to, close is or equals, supply total ensuring by balance market end-of-day an ensure to need we market, gas GB the of balancer residual as role our In fluctuate. system our within stock gas of levels so balance, in rarely Throughout a gas day, supply and demand are imbalances System 2.3.1 3. 2. 1. challenges with: current of anumber seeing We are on the Transmission National System? we seeing are currently challenges What 2.3 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 system pressures system affects turn in which levels stock system gas end-of-day) which can lead to reductions in system imbalances (within-day and maintenance. system of times peak at requirements short-notice changesin customer
the NTS: 5 September 2016 and July 2016. 2016 July and 5September NTS: the illustrates two recent challenging on periods two spotlights later on in this chapter which included We have elements. these of each on The following sub-sections provide more detail spotlight later on in this Chapter. this in on later spotlight 5September the in shown is NTS the on trend this of impact the of example An volumes. day end-of- and flows actual of reflective less are that notifications flow start-of-day with along towards later daily balance reconciliations, our network. This includes a notable trend to use want they that way the changing are Our more commercially responsive customers
18 Chapter two 19
day gas system stock level changes seen in 2002/03 It those to seen in 2015/16. illustrates that current gas system stocks changes at certain times of the year are up Figures and compare 2.2 2.3 the within- threeto times the level seen a decadeago. This trend of increased volatility is leading to particularly challenges, operational greater in terms of managing NTS pressures and and safety within remain they that ensuring tolerances. contractual different the of understanding better a Gaining component parts gas to system stock swings will allow us quantify to what levels of swing the to challenge operational an of more pose NTS and if there are particular sources of system swing which have more of an impact on operability. on
with our customers. our with The levels which by gas system stocks will change within-day in a zone of the NTS are driven the by difference between the levels and profiles of local supply and demand, plus the capability of the NTS transport to gas from zone. to zone When gas is transported over long distances its pressure can drop significantly, which may mean that we are unable meet to the agreed result, a As pressures. contractual minimum demand within-day and patterns supply variation can significantly affect our abilityto manage gas system stocks in a controlled way, allowto for the imbalance between supply and demand, while also allowing us meet to our contracted pressures. We manageWe levels ofgas system stocks on a national and zonal level ensure to that NTS operational obligated within remain pressures which within limits The tolerances. safety and we can allow system stocks change to within- day are determined the by maximum operating pressures of our assets and the minimum contractual pressures that we have agreed 2.3.2 pressures and system levels stock Gas system 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing Rolling 30-dayaveragerangeofNTSgassystemstocklevels Figure 2.3 Within-day maximumtominimumrangeofNTSgassystemstocklevels Figure 2.2 Within-day gas system stock level range (mcm) Within-day gas system stock level range (mcm) Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 a e a te t t te a a e a a era e ra e a era e a t t
e e a a e e ar ar pr pr a a ep ep 20 Chapter two
– – 3 21 51 15
127 /16 2015
2 1 10 42 90 203 /15 2014
– – 8 47 114 199 /14 2013
– – 6 29 216 107 /13 2012 – –
3 13 70 175
/12 2011 experienced our mildest winter in almost sixty almost in winter mildest our experienced consistently was demand meant which years Howeverlower. our biggest concern, from the to relates perspective, operability an magnitude of the events rather than the number of instances. Higher magnitude events pose action more as challenge operability an of more is required move to gas around the system to mitigate the swing event. The system needs beto flexibleto ensure we can react quickly respondto these to events.
– – 3 16 63 167 /11 2010 mcm
– – – – 11 78 /08 2007
– – – – 16 61 /06 2005
– – – – 4 24 /03 2002 mcm. This amount of within- Current gas system stock level changes are Current times the level seen a decade ago. up to three 3 times 10 – 35
mcm mcm mcm >35 20–25 mcm 25–30 mcm 30–35 mcm 10–15 15–20 Number of instances where within-day gas system stock swing has fallen within a particular within-day gas system stock swing has fallen Number of instances where mcm range Table 2.1 Table day change in gas system stocks makes it point operational an from challenging more of view move to gas around the system to absorb any shortfalls. This there year, has supply within-day of alignment better a been and demand profiles which resulted in lower average daily gas system stock swings over winter periodthe reversing 2015/16 (Figure 2.4), the trend seen in recent years. also We Since 2010 there has been an increasing an been has there 2010 Since trend in within-day gas system stock swings greater than 20 Table 2.1 shows the number 2.1 Table of instances where within-day gas system stocks swing swing stocks system gas within-day where has been greater than a certain level of mcm per day. 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing the system now. We can use the key learning keylearning the use now. We can system the what operability challenges we are seeing on requirementsoperability we to need understand Although the GFOP Within-day supplyanddemandswingsinwinter2014/152015/16 Figure 2.4 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016
Flex (mcm) t
ter ter e is focused on future future on focused is e t ter ter e e mean for us in a future operating environment. operating afuture in us for mean could day of types these what of understanding an develop and strategy resilience future our points from these challenging days to develop t ter ter e e t ter ter e e 22 Chapter two 23
o mcm at the start of the day. We had We day. mcm at the start of the mcm shortfall between gas coming intomcm shortfall between The low levels of gas in the system wasThe low levels of gas in was a there driven by market behaviour; from to our early trading a limited response to started already the market. We’ve to try to get aengage with shippers of their driversbetter understanding in this type of situation. 50 out of the NTSthe NTS and gas going approximatelyon a national demand of 200
pp o
e a
mcm Figure 2.5 Supply and demand profiles on 4 and 5 September 5 September 2016 amount of gasOn 5 September 2016 the System (NTS) in the National Transmission 2012. With lesswas at its lowest level since the across gas in the system our customers pressures experiencing lower system were time since earlythan normal. For the first locational2012 we had to take commercial we met all of our to ensure actions energy contractual obligations. Spotlight: 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 Supply mixon5September Figure 2.6 supply. increasing or demand reducing by either to respond market the stimulate to order in traded GNCC response, market limited and to fall continuing system the in gas of amount the With 313 at was system the in gas of amount the 3 by approximately increasing was Demand NTS. the in gas of amount overall the in to areduction leading in, coming was than NTS the of out going gas more was there 47 opened market The National challenge Monday 5 September 326 to fell NTS the in gas of amount the meant which market the from response insufficient an was there but action atrade took (GNCC) Centre Control National Gas The terminals. Bacton and Fergus St at losses supply by late compounded was this and 6 approximately was market The Sunday 4 September So what happened?
Flow (mcm/day) by 9:00am that meant which hour per mcm mcm by the close of the gas day. gas the of close by the mcm ter e t r a t p rt r a e ter a ra rt t ter a a t ter a he eth rpe ter a
mcm and still falling. falling. still and mcm mcm light, meaning meaning light, mcm r a e ter a th
mcm light light mcm arr ter a t ra e
ee e ter a
o ter e t r a t p rt p rt a t ter e t r doing about it. it. about doing we were what and happening was it why we outlined so aconcern were pressures usual than lower the however customers, our with obligations contractual our of any breach We didn’t pressures. usual than lower the querying were they as day the during IUK and Networks Distribution stations, power from calls We received position. balance national the address to started response This supply). (gas withdrawing sites storage with responded market the and 2:00pm approximately at taken was trade GNCC A further flowing. started sub-terminals, Haven Milford the of one Dragon, and 1:00pm at by GNCC taken was action trade A second demand. and supply between shortfall significant a still was there however reducing, demand) (gas injection site storage with 10:00am, at seen was response A market t er ter a e ra ter a ra e
24 Chapter two
25
pr
ep e e
ept t
pr
e
e
t
of South Wales. Even with compression being available maximum operating pressure (MOP) limit back online 6:00pm by on 5 September. Both Churchover and Wormington compressor stations were then used allowto the movement of more gas out our network analysis showed that with the prevailing conditions, the pressure at Milford Haven would reach the at approximately This meant 11:30pm. location specific actionswere required preventto this from happening. It takes a few hours for this process take to effect. The initial action taken before 6:00pm scaled back interruptible entry capacity station was 3:00am on 6 September, but the site team managed bring to it at Milford Haven. into the NTS than going out and the amount of gas in the NTS increased.
pr
e
e
t
mcm. From
pr e
mcm. The increase
e
t
h r e e a
Minimum levels of gas (mcm) gas of levels Minimum in the Dragon supply rate meant that the capability of the NTS move to gas away from Milford Haven was going be to exceeded, leading a localised to pressure constraint situation in South Wales. mitigateTo this GNCC requested the return service to of Churchover compressor station. The initial estimate of return to service time for Churchover compressor already flowing 50 Locational challenge Locational The increase in supply flow at Dragon in South Wales resulted in a locational pressure challenge for the NTS. There was a planned compression outage at Churchover compressor sub-terminal at Milford Haven was station on 5 September. On 5 September the South Hook Figure 2.7 of gas in the NTS Historic minimum levels The amount of gas in the system reached its lowest level at 3:00pm, 301 this point on, there was more gas coming 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing will be doing maintenance works on the NTS the on works maintenance doing be will we when and where know you to let website maintenance plans which we publish on our summer and winter our produce we year Every times ofat peak system maintenance in customer changes Short-notice requirements 2.3.3 7 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 of the impact these works may have on the the on have may works these impact the of informed you to keep documents these We use http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/gas-transmission-system-operations/maintenance/ Level of gas in NTS (mcm) NTS gaslevelson5Septemberwithkeycommercialactionstakenduringtheday Figure 2.8 constraint. the of size the to minimise helped away. This transported to be needed that amount the reduced which area the in gas the of more absorbed effectively demand local additional the that meant This locationally. gas sold GNCC the so received was Aresponse market. to the out sent then was bids energy locational for A request a e a a e t a e e a e e t a
CC a t CC pe e e a e e pe 7 .
o pressure dropped. the and off came Dragon 5:00am From pipeline. the of limit MOP the below peaked pressure that ensured this together, and midnight after slightly rate flow its reduced also Hook South for each month. month. each for ASEP’s is minimum included daily capability revised the of indication an (ASEP), Point Entry System Aggregate an at capability the affects work this Where capacity. exit or entry on impact associated any and NTS, CC at a a t re te e e a e e re te
26 Chapter two 27
mcm/d and for August a a mcm/d. pr mcm/d, however in mid-June supply frommcm/d, however in mid-June 2.9). mcm/d by mid-July (see Figure the same time period. These works limitedthe same time period. These station atthe capability of the compressor of these planned As a result Avonbridge. capability noticeworks we issued an ASEP in our summer maintenance for St Fergus plan for July of 83 We also had planned maintenance work also We in Scotlandon one of our main pipelines Glenmavis duringbetween Bathgate and of 82 belowto dropped Fergus St at supply June In 50 levels over reaching the terminal ramped up 90 pr
ar
ar e e a a
a
w o fl St Fergus terminal supply flows between January and July 2016 St Fergus terminal supply flows between January Figure 2.9 stations in Scotland and the northern half are of the network. These compressors in at St Fergus used to move gas brought meet demand. to it is required to where planned at a number of compressor We issued our summer maintenance plan issued We is lower in 2016. As demand on 31 March of our more summer we tend to schedule this period.maintenance activities during terminals alsoFlows coming in at supply gas is neededtend to be lower as less to meet demand. During July and August works were Spotlight: July 2016, St Fergus St Spotlight: 2016, July highduring flows a peak maintenance period 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 resilience on the system to manage the the to manage system the on resilience sufficient provided This online. back them to bring stations compressor our of several at works scheduled the cancelled we happening from To this prevent limits. pressure statutory the of breach a and St Fergus at constraint aflow be may there that arisk was there schedule, maintenance planned the per as outage, on Scotland in compressors several we had As flow St FergusterminalsupplyflowsbetweenJanuary2012andJuly2016 Figure 2.10 55–65 between of flows expected We had decade. a almost for seen been not has which gas, UK’s the 50% of than more providing was Fergus St August early and July During St Fergusterminalmaximumflow(mcm/d) mcm/d over June, July and August and July June, over mcm/d a
a ep a a ep
a of peak maintenance. requirements even during periods ongoing their meet to continue we ofunderstanding how we can ensure abetter get to try to Fergus St at with the delivery facility operators We’ve already to started engage Fergus. St at year of time the for flows anticipated than higher required. was action level this 83 up to flows with to deal place in resilience 2.10). Figure (see sufficient We site had the at behaviour summer historic on based a mcm/d, however once flows went above above went flows once however mcm/d, ep a a ep a
a
28 Chapter two 29
More focus More is a world where economic where world a is scenario gas demand demand gas scenario is a world where policy interventions and for residential consumers and businesses are restricted, restricted, are businesses and consumers residential for develop. policies and technologies new of range a yet This results in some progress towards decarbonisation but at a slower pace than society would like. Slow Progression Slow as desired to a renewable, low carbon world. Choices Gone Green Gone reducing in effective and ambitious both are innovation long-term on focus The emissions. gas greenhouse and prosperity of levels high goals, environmental the that ensure harmonisation European advanced quickly as transition to ability society’s limit conditions 2050 carbon reduction target is achieved. is target reduction carbon 2050 Slow Progression Slow Gone Green Gone is expected remain to largely the same. In the Progression No currently available, the high temperatures used temperatures high the available, currently heavyby industry in the UK will be difficultto fully electrify so our assumption, is for now, that gas demand out 2050 to for this sector Our Future (FES) indicate Energy Scenarios is expected that the behaviour of CCGTs as their unpredictable to become more to generate will be more requirement generationclosely linked with renewable with otheroutput and their interaction toolselectricity network balancing generation storage, other (interconnection, and demand-side response). Green ambition Green
is a market-driven world, with limited is a world where business as usual , we know that despite a . Based on the technology technology the on Based . 8 9 Less focus
Consumer Power Consumer allow prosperity of levels High intervention. government technologies New innovation. and investment high for are prevalent and focus on the desires of consumers emissions. gas greenhouse reducing above and over Progression No Progression No activities prevail. Society is focused on the short term, ambition. green above affordability on concentrating continue electricity and gas of sources Traditional to dominate, with little innovation altering how energy is used. Consumer Power Consumer
available available
Prosperity money money money money
Less Gas plays a vital role today in providing Gas plays a vital role to our homes, supplies energy secure On an annual basis, businesses and industry. (TWh) energy 2.5 times as much gas provides which includes ~70% of heat. as electricity, be crucial toOur view is that gas will supply energy secure continuing to provide while weat best value for consumers transition to a low carbon future. More Future Energy Scenarios (2016): http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ (2016): Scenarios Energy Future http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ (2016): Scenarios Energy Future 154, Page Figure 2.11 The 2016 Future Energy Scenarios matrix decline in annual gas demand across three of the four scenarios our (Table end 2.2), consumers will continue use to gas out 2050 to and processes industrial heating, domestic for generation power 8 9 Based on our FES 2.4 Energy us? ScenariosWhat are Future our showing 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing Forecast annualdemandlevelsacrossallfourFESoutto2050 Table 2.2 Green Gone the in levels demand lower the Even generation coming from CCGT generators. on gas and a large proportion of electricity reliant still users domestic of amajority with by 2050 slightly to increase expected is Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 generation capability. A majority of the current current the of Amajority capability. generation CCGT to develop made investments favour The statement infers that energy policy may future. energy our in gas of importance the 2015 indicated November in made The Government statement on energy policy FES from Data 10 10 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 Year Gas http://www.nationalgrid.com/gtys scenario will still warrant the need for for need the warrant still will scenario
2016 charts (Figure 5.2.10) (Figure 2016 charts 76% for allorpartoftheir heating. 76% ofhomesintheUKwillstilluse gas By 2040inourNoProgression scenario, TWh Gone Green
809 663 654 732 725 647 618 710
TWh Progression Slow build new ones. than rather assets existing to use consumers is more affordable for household and business it so gas, to supply infrastructure network the have We already 2050. in demand ongoing this the NTS to transport gas nationwide to meet
(GTYS) Ten Gas Year Statement our (see periods of connection location, ramp rates and notice in terms flexibility stations power new offers NTS The NTS. to the CCGTs connected are 809 660 649 650 582 595 579 737 10 for more information). TWh Progression No
809 904 782 756 775 951 743 748 TWh Power Consumer
809 644 695 626 786 637 745 740 30
Chapter two
31
a
ter e t r
low (customer
12
C er er
a
ar
a
r re cost connections). cost to have a clear understanding of what impact impact what of understanding clear a have to have may behaviour unpredictable more this on our network and what we can do to 3). chapter (see risk the minimise willWe continue innovate to and evolve the NTS so that the network continues play to a key role in the provision of energy as the UK progresses targets. the 2050 towards areWe starting develop to green gas for example project CLoCC and demand-side response). As SO we need solutions that aim deliver to value for – networks existing the using through money unpredictable as their requirement to generate generate to requirement their as unpredictable will be more closely linked with renewable with interaction their and output generation tools balancing network electricity other generation other storage, (interconnection,
ear
a
likely is
11
a
scenario has far by
r re a
2040/41. by GW
C a
2016 charts 2016 3,and 5 (PS1, 7) a e ree GW to 45 to GW
Capacity (GW) Capacity Project CLoCC website: http://projectclocc.com/ http://projectclocc.com/ website: CLoCC Project Gas capacity includes open CCGT, cycle gas turbines (OCGT) and combined heat and power (CHP) requirements. 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas 11 12 solar, wind and interconnector capacity interconnector and wind solar, out 2040/41. to The figure above indicates that the level of capacity generation gas required The drive towards a decarbonised future makes nuclear, wind and solar the generators fuel critical a be will gas however choice, of 2.12 Figure electricity balance demand. to illustrates the levels of coal, gas, nuclear, Data from FES Figure 2.12 Levels of coal, gas, nuclear, solar, wind and interconnector capacity wind and interconnector solar, Levels of coal, gas, nuclear, The figure also highlights the significant increase anticipated in both solar and wind to increaseto across three of the four scenarios as 2025/26 coal-firedby generators closeto Directive Emissions Industrial the with comply (IED). The Progression No the largest capacity increase levels from 2015 of 36 in all four scenarios. 2040/41 by The behaviour is expectedof CCGTs become to more Chapter two Changing energy landscape energy Changing System flexibilityrequirements Figure 2.13 is: NTS the to ensure We need flexibility System 2.5 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 demand level demand 1-in-20 the at occur would than higher are that network the of parts some in flows network in result but level demand peak 1-in-20 the from away occur which levels demand and supply for to cater able pressures system and levels stock system gas by varying imbalances and profiles demand and able to adapt to changing daily supply
Geographic supplyGeographic and demand distribution Within-day gas system stock variation
(Figure 2.13). future supply and demand requirements meet to flexible sufficiently is NTS the ensure will above the of balance right the Finding junctions operate. direction in which compressors and multi- flow to the changes rapid require may and pipes, and compressors multi-junctions, through flow gas of level and direction the in changes in results This levels. demand and supply of distribution geographic the in change of rate the for to cater able configurability Adaptability/
32 Chapter two 33
We wantWe work to with you make to sure that the right commercial options (rules), (rules), options commercial right the that physical and (tools) arrangements operational investments (assets) are considered across the NTS. Our role is balance to your needs while respond to NTS the of ability the with consumer. end the to cost the minimising
; however, this; however, cannot 13 Incremental capacity is firm capacity made available over commitment. user and above baseline in response to market demand and supported by always be the case when the way that capacity is used changes. The longer-term capacity auctions, which used provide to us with a clear market signal of intent, no longer indicate a customer’s intention flow to gas. This means we have less certainty on the need invest to or when we need take to actions change to the way we operate. 13 patterns we are seeing on the gas NTS are The within-day supply and demand and supply within-day The very different from those envisaged when it it when envisaged those from different very needs now NTS The designed. originally was the ability quickly to adapt changing to daily supply and demand profiles and imbalances leading varying to system gas stocks and system pressures. Our current Network Development Process (NDP) does not have a trigger mechanism enhanceto system capability in response changingto and/or reducing flows of gas in the network, the i.e. net impact of a number use their changing differentcustomers of of the NTS. The current regime is based on the concept of user commitment provide to capacity incremental 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter two Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 34
Chapter three 35 36
three Chapter Chapter 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Gas and electricity energy interactions – Future generation Chapter three Future generation energy – interactions electricity and Gas requirement to generate will be more closely to become more unpredictable as their CCGTs of expected is behaviour The future. the for network the plan to appropriately a challenge of more is it requirements capacity With such a wide range in potential generation to 38 15 (from by 2040 CCGT capacity connection requirements FES 2.5, 2016 the section in mentioned we As generation Future energy – interactions electricity and Gas 3.1 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 Key insights indicates the range of expected new new expected of range the indicates generators anddemand-sideresponse). tools (interconnectors, storage,other with otherelectricitysystembalancing CCGTs willbeusedmore incombination generation (wind,solaretc.). more withintermittentrenewable requirement togeneratewillcorrelate to becomemore unpredictable astheir The wayCCGTs operateisexpected NTS (currently 28 capacity isexpectedtoconnectthe combined cyclegasturbine(CCGT) By 2040,between15–38 GW in the No the Progression GW in By 2040 By range from 15 CCGT capacity isexpected to GW in the Gone the Green GW in GW). GW of new GW ofnew GW to38 scenarios). GW
the impacts and risk. risk. and impacts the to anyidentify possible opportunities minimise to you with work then We can risks. operability any quantify and articulate to clearly us help and operability.network capability This will future our on have may requirement customer changing this impact what to assess We need other generation and demand-side response). balancing tools (interconnection, storage, their interaction with other electricity network linked with renewable generation output and scope togrow considerablyintothefuture. attributable toCCGToperationhasthe The volumeofgassystemstockswing generation demandafterthedailypeak. coinciding withthereduction intotal rapidly attheendofgasday, to occurwhenwindgenerationincreases The highestlevelsofCCGTswingare likely daily gassystemstockswing. coincide withthestartorendof generation grow inmagnitudeand Growing riskiffluctuationsin renewable system operabilitychallenges. CCGT swingaloneisunlikelytocause
36 Chapter three 37
mcm/d, supplies profiledto address shortfall mcm/d, supplies profiledto address shortfall 2017, 2023, 2030 2017, All four Future Energy CP) Scenarios NP, (GG, SP, Wind year 2007 Cold weather variable Flag – single highest CCGT swing day Within-day supply and demand profile changes. Constant Distribution Network profile (levelvaries with FES scenario) New power station locations based on the Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) register (where possible) or based on sites of former coal-fired power stations near the to NTS Winter’s day chosen simulate to short period for solar generation Wind profile chosento simulate windy day Merit order applied set with asCCGTs the flexibility generator of choice Nuclear, biomass, other renewables and coal are constant throughout the day. supply Flat Start-of-day shortfall 22 endby of day Start-of-day shortfall 44 by endby of day. Full and intact network Network as-is today plus known planned changes. All supplies based on FES:
Modelling Demand Supply Asset Figure 3.1 Analysis assumptions overview Our initial analysis has focused on understanding 3.2 Analysis results summary the potential impact of increasing volumes and increasing impact of volumes potential the 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas within-day volatility of CCGT generation NTS, on the CCGT of within-day volatility under a range possible futures of as described by The assumptions, methodology used FES. the and detailed analysis results are Appendix in provided 1. The results are summarised below. Chapter three Future generation energy – interactions electricity and Gas – HighCCGTswingdayandwindgeneration) Power marketmodelhourlyelectricitygenerationprofiles(2023Consumer Figure 3.2 the when occurred generated swing CCGT of considerably into the future. The highest levels to grow scope the has operation to CCGT attributable swing stock system gas of volume The output of our modelling indicates that the Generation (GW) Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 C e e a t r e CC C a ear
pe e a t r e C ter e t r a ther re e a e ar r the daily peak (Figure 3.2). (Figure peak daily the reduction in total generation demand after the with day, gas coinciding the of end the at output of wind generation increased rapidly C e heata p er C r a p pe t ra e
38 Chapter three 39 a tr t e We alreadyWe see a significant contributionto gas system stock swings as CCGT demand profilestend to coincide with the daily demand shows analysis Our Networks. Distribution from further if increase to potential the has this continue generation renewable in fluctuations growto in magnitude and coincide with the start or end of the daily swing (Figure 3.3). It is important note that to these results are based on a small number of gas days analysed and are based on a full, intact network. Our next steps are outlined in the following section and and modelling comprehensive more involve will assumptions the to Changes validation. results that have been made in other areas, such as the amount of flexibility takenby Distribution Networks,could affect these results significantly. r
C e e a t r e CC
at ter e t r
tr a e ra e t ra e
Flow (mscm/d) Flow Modelled hourly demand flows (2023 Consumer Power – High CCGT swing day) flows (2023 Consumer Power – High CCGT Modelled hourly demand Figure 3.3 In terms of the impact of this growth in CCGT swing on our ability operate to the NTS, our initial analysis has identified relatively few scenarios in which CCGT swing in itself, even under the relatively testing assumptions that we have made in some areas, causes constraints if supplies are delivered the to NTS at a steady rate. However when moderate or high levels of supply profiling are applied, more constraints are identified, affecting our abilityto deliver our pressure obligations both on exit and on entry (see Appendix 1 for more detail). It could also be possible for the converse to happen,to for i.e. renewable generation to fall at the start of the morning peak causing a high rate of increase in the requirement should this although generation, CCGT for normally be, at least partially, offset the by output. solar of pattern 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter three Future generation energy – interactions electricity and Gas include: which steps next of a range considering are We flexibility. system quantify and to assess ability our to develop work ongoing our of part represents This profiling. demand and supply on based NTS the of assessment analysis first the is This nextWhat for our analysis? 3.3 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 asset decommissioning etcasset decommissioning to supply responsiveness, outages, future for analysis, further for example relating considered be could sensitivities of a range operability future on impacts any quantify and identify to requirements flexibility building upon our understanding of system to date completed analysis the in made external consultation on the assumptions
from Distribution Networks requirements flexibility as such factors other by considering swing stock system developing our to ability forecast gas and calibrate our projections. to validate variables market relevant other as well as pressure and stocks system gas flows, system of analysis historic detailed out to carry continuing
40 Chapter four
41 42
Next steps four Chapter Chapter 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter four Next steps and the Gas Transmission Working Group. Group. Working Transmission Gas the and at the Gas Futures Group, our Customer Seminar you of to some talking started already We have draft. first this on possible as you from feedback much as to get is GFOP the with next doing on The timeline opposite outlines what we plan operability. and NTS the capability on future effect the to us which will highlight quantify require changes can todocument collaborative interested parties all bemore so isfor of editions aim future Our this landscape. energy future of the elements believe important the most stakeholders, are evolvecan focus what and you, on and our customers Wecomment. keen to are your hear views this so document of this document for reviewyour draft and isafirst This Next steps 4.1 Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016
. The key next step step keynext . The
2016 2016 the on views your seeking be 2017 will we where early in event aconsultation holding be We will to engage with you going forward at this event. event. this at forward going you with to engage us like would you way appropriate most the on opinions for you asking be We will involved. nationalgrid.com .box.GFOP@ via us with touch in Get 2017 our of GFOP development the with GFOP and we will be asking for your help help your for asking be will we and if you would like to get to get like would you if .
42 Chapter four 43
GTYS published Nov GFOP & Q2/Q3 Run analysis
launch
Jul FES Clearer understanding of impacts of gas of impacts of understanding Clearer operability. on interactions electricity and Growing pressure accept to a wider range of gas quality on the NTS boost to security supply. of Capacity and connection changes. connection and Capacity Customers becoming more reliant on day Exit instead bookings ahead/within-day changes. regime Charging Commercially responsive supplies. responsive Commercially capacity. obligated long-term of Let us know what you think, contact us: contact think, you what know us Let [email protected] For future editions we could focus on assessing the impacts of one or more of the following topics: Mar Follow up GFOP to consultation event
and
2017
Q1 GFOP consultation event Dec Startour process feedback
GTYS published GFOP & Nov 2016 s and provides an outline for what this we have focused upon in our first GFOP This document is a building block for future GFOP like. look could document areWe keen get to your feedback on the topic on the analysis assumptions we have made. Figure 4.1 Road map for the GFOP 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter four Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 44 Chapter five
45 57 46
Appendix 1 – Analysis assumptions andmethodology five
Chapter Chapter Appendix 2 – Glossary 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter five on theon network. of the NTS toability accommodate volumes higher of CCGTs We have to test designed the of anumber created scenarios assumptions Analysis 5.1 methodology and assumptions Analysis 1 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 Figure 5.1 Figure 5.1 Connected CCGTcapabilityunderdifferentFES Capacity (GW) information such as entries in the Transmission of arange on based NTS, to the connected be will that CCGT individual each of location and size the with together available capability assumptions about the total CCGT generation Scenarios (FES). Each scenario makes Energy Future our of each in made those with consistent are assumptions Market Power Our Power Market assumptions 5.1.1
t C
e r
e e
r C re e
r ee close to the NTS. to the close stations coal-fired former of sites the on located that assumed been the required CCGTs will be has it instances, CCGTs. new these In all of make an informed decision as to the location to available information insufficient is there high, very is capability CCGT of level the where scenarios In register. (TEC) Capacity Entry
r r e
r r e 46 Chapter five 47
. 1
mcm/d mcm/d shortfall. mcm/d surplus at the start of mcm/d, was chosen as a ‘high – for three gas years – 2017/18, 2023/24 and 2023/24 – for three gas years – 2017/18, The data2030/31. for electricity demand and generation capacity are consistent with FES for combinations scenario/year these of each We haveWe assumed a seasonal cold gas demand and applied a ‘windy’ profile taken from2007 (the windiest recent year) increase to the amount of volatility due wind. to to suppliesto at 8pm and the remaining half is added midnight. at 12 These times have been selected as they represent the most frequent Control National Gas the which at bars hour Centre take balancing actions resolve to a national supply deficit. two steps, whereby half the shortfall is added supply swing’ supply profile representing a case. high credible supply swing’ supply ‘high a Adopting profile puts the network under more stress increasingby the rate of gas system stock depletion earlier on in the It gas has day. been assumed that the system will return a full to supply balance the by end of the gas day in supply profiles, ranging from81 an the gas day with an average 21 The percentile, 5th representing a start of day shortfall of 44 shortfall and a 36 ,
Consumer Power Consumer , and Progression No
mcm/d. This showed a wide range of Shippers do not have perfect knowledge of forecasts initial their and demand end-of-day may be inaccurate due fluctuations to in a market weather, including factors of range etc. conditions, Supply losses close the to start of the day. considerations. operational and Commercial CCGT locations are consistent with each FES. In some instances it was necessary to make assumptions about the locations of specific whereCCGTs there was insufficient information available.of existing In these coal-fired cases, additional power stations wereCCGTs allocatedclose to the toNTS. sites 1 Slow Progression Slow 5.1.3 Supply assumptions Demand assumptions initial the into fed have that assumptions The phase of our analysis have been selected not only reflect to the range of outcomes that might be possible under FES, but also apply to more demanding requirements on the network to constraints. possible any identify haveWe considered all four Future Energy Scenarios Green – Gone 5.1.2 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Normally our network analysis assumes that that assumes analysis network our Normally supplies i.e. gas arecomes ‘flat’, to theon NTS at a constant rate such that the aggregate level of supply in each hour of the gas day is equivalent of the end-of-day 1/24th to demand with consistent is this Although day. that for the obligations on supplies flow to at a flat rate, there are a number of reasons why this is not necessarily an accurate assumption for purposes: planning haveWe analysed the amount of supply profiling on historical gas days where there was a gas system stock swing greater than 25 Chapter five was analysed up to three times: to three up analysed was days gas these of Each stage. analysis network to the to progress selected was swing CCGT of volume highest the with day gas a single combinations, 12 the year/FES of gas each For match. asupply with demand gas overall an to create Model Market Gas the into fed were These unit. by profiles generation hourly was then despatched via a merit order to create demands;hourly electricity generation plant generated Model Market Power the run, each In FES. and year gas of 12 the of combinations each for days gas of thousands We generated setup Analysis 5.2.1 methodology Analysis 5.2 methodology and assumptions Analysis 1 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016
of accommodating a medium supply swing. capable was network the if assess to profile’ to the support ‘high supply swing’ supply was only analysed if the network was unable profile supply swing’ supply ‘medium The 3. 2. 1.
22 of shortfall (start-of-day profile supply swing’ supply a‘medium with profile supply’ a‘flat with 44 of shortfall (start-of-day profile supply swing’ supply a‘high with mcm/d). mcm/d)
48 Chapter five 49
the system will decrease as the gas system stock is used meet to the increase in demand system reduce will turn in This requirements. pressures which can impact our ability meet to AOPs across the network. Gaining a better understanding of what impact high gas-fired power generation demand swings will have critical. is levels stock system gas within-day on Compressors are designed to operate operate to designed are Compressors within certain parameters of flow and pressure; network configurations that require these outside operate to compressors parameters may indicate a need modify to provide a different range of operation. Gas system stock is the volume of gas stored withinthe NTS. use We this maintain to pressures, manage the flows throughout the network and the changes in supply and demand If day. the throughout demand exceeds supply, levels of gas stocks within or adapt the compressor enable to it to
system stock levels. the impact on compressor flows gas national and local on impact the Pressures (MOPs) and configurations, and pipeline Maximumpipeline Operating Pressures (AOPs) the ability meet to Assured Offtake safe pressure limits at which we can operate pipelines our keep to Failure pipelines. our below these limits is caused gas by entering the network at a higher rate than it can be compression. using example for away moved Any MOPs that are exceeded are categorised as an Entry constraint in our results. Assured Offtake Pressures are the minimum Offtake Assured the are Pressures security maintain to offtake required pressures of supply our to Distribution Network (DN) customers. Failure meet to these pressures is caused either a shortfall by in supply at a national level, or when it is not possible to configure the networkto transport gas quickly enough from the points of supply the to points of demand. Any AOPs that are exceeded are categorised as an Exit constraint in our results. Maximum Operating Pressures are the Analysis focus on: focused analysis This 5.2.2 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter five Analysis assumptions and methodology and assumptions Analysis 1 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 Figure 5.2 Figure 5.2 – HighCCGTswingdayandwindgeneration) Power MarketModelhourlyelectricitygenerationprofiles(2023Consumer Power Analysis results Analysis 5.3 Model: Market Power our from features of number a illustrates This 5.2. figure in shown is day swing CCGT ahigh for output An 5.3.1 Power outputs Model Market
Generation (GW) resulting flexibility requirement of the market. the of requirement flexibility resulting the of majority the CCGTs up Gas pick Biomass, Other Renewables and Coal. Nuclear, day, the namely during constant A number of generation remain types day. the getting increasingly windy towards the end of a relatively period short of solar generation, with day awinter’s instance this in modelled; being day the of features weather the reflect The generation output of Solar and Wind
C e e a t r e CC C a ear
pe e a t r e C ter e t r a
ther re e a e ar our C e heata p er C interconnection. electricity is flexibility of provider next the and to zero falls generation CCGT for requirement the that means lowest, its at is demand electricity day, gas when the of end the at generation wind of level high The Oil and OCGT. and Oil CHP, order, namely merit the in others) (and CCGTs below being to generate, selected not are but Model Market Power the in included are generation of sources other that Note r a p pe t ra e
50 Chapter five 51 a tr t e increase in the amount of gas system stock swing that the network has accommodate. to This is predominantly caused the by reduction in CCGT demand which occurs over the space diurnal the with coincides and hours few a of swing of LDZ demand. be turneddown. This scenario is challenging for the NTS as it causes an increase in the volume of gas system stock depletion during the day. The challenge is exacerbated if supplies have the opposite profile and are at their highest at the end of the gas day when demand is lowest. our C e e a t r e CC at ter e t r
tr a e ra e t ra e
Flow (mscm/d) Flow Figure 5.3 Power – High CCGT swing day) Modelled hourly demand flows (2023 Consumer The hourly CCGT demand calculated the by Power Market Model is combined with other gas demands as illustrated in figure5.3. The pattern of CCGT demand in the scenario, shown in figure 5.3, results in a significant Gas – demand Model outputs Market 5.3.2 This lastpoint is significant because it implies that a large proportion will generateof CCGTs the during higher is demand electricity when day; therefore CCGT profiling is likelyto be highest when the wind increases atthe end of the day which will cause most to or all CCGTs 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter five Modelled hourly supply flows Modelled hourlysupplyflows Figure 5.4 model output example: this in responded have that supply of types the changes in demand. Figure 5.4 below illustrates to types supply different of response of rate the to determine undertaken been has analysis historical model, supply agas to create order In Market outputs Model –supplyGas 5.3.3 methodology and assumptions Analysis 1 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016
Flow (mscm/d) range storagerange storage. and medium-range The most responsive supplies are IUK, long- by terminal. separately modelled order of responsiveness, with LNG response Other supplies are shown in ascending to increase). capability the have not does so maximum at unresponsive (the latter is already running as modelled are BBL and shale UKCS, e ra e t ra e ra th t e ta he C
ter e t r
e ra ha e
our constraints are more likely to be encountered. to be likely more are constraints entry case which in terminals, by fewer delivered be could increases required the that such of locations. Existing capacity obligations are balanced pattern of response across a number a deliver made assumptions The balance. day end-of- required the to deliver combinations There are many possible supply response historical balancing actions taken by the GNCC. on based 12 and midnight 8pm at assumed been have response supply in ‘steps’ The ra e t ra e ter e t r r e a t e ta he C 52 Chapter five 53 C er er r re flex the(see FES Appendix 1). This typically occurs when there is a ramp up or down in CCGT demand compensate to for a change in coincides which output, generation renewable withthe daily swing at the start orend of the day (as shown in figure5.2). r re
t a e ree
Flow (mscm/d) Flow Figure 5.5 Actual and modelled peak volume of CCGT swing CCGT swing CCGT The levels of CCGT demand swing derived from the than higher substantially are modelling our scenarios, four all across historically, seen levels as shown in figure5.5 below. This is dueto the higher a with associated variability in increase volume connecting of CCGTs the to NTS in the which assumptions of application the and future 5.3.4 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter five solved without constraints. scenarios, in which the networks could be four all across profile supply swing’ supply a‘medium considered then analysis The Medium supply profile exceeded. to be MOPs and to rise levels stock system gas caused demands low and supplies high as day gas converse problem was experienced late in the the achieved; be not could AOPs that meant supplies low and demands high as East South the in constraints exit found we Typically Grain). balancing in the South East (Bacton and Isle of variation (including CCGTs) and late supply demand within-day of acombination of a result Progression Slow except scenarios FES all across identified were however, constraints applied was profile supply swing’ supply a‘high When profile supply High was assumed. profile supply’ a‘flat when network the to solve possible was it analysed, 2017 the In scenarios profile supply Flat 2017 summary results analysis 5.3.5 scenario. this in higher level of renewables, particularly wind, the with consistent is which 2030, 2025 and swing in Gone Green of level peak however, the scenarios, other the 5.1). figure (see Unlike scenario this in assumed the relatively low volume of CCGT generation to due is 2025); this (2023 and years middle the in scenarios the all of lowest the is scenario Gone the Green in swing of level peak the that whole. Nonetheless, the data appears to show a as datasets to the applicable necessarily not are data the from trends any therefore and scenario each in days gas single from taken are above figure the in swings CCGT peak The methodology and assumptions Analysis 1 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016
. These constraints occurred as as occurred constraints . These does increase between
area to variations in gas system stock. system gas in to variations area local the of resilience the to improve considered and maintenance/non-build solutions could be Assets: stock. system gas local of management locational actions could be utilised to support or constraint management tools such as Tools: profiles. supply ‘flatter’ to encourage developed be could Rules: solutions will be the most appropriate: non-asset and asset both of a combination that likely more perhaps is it profile, supply swing’ supply ‘high the in identified only were constraints and profiles, supply swing’ supply ‘medium and ‘flat’ the under network the to solve possible was it that Given constraints. these of frequency potential the understanding of stage the at yet not are and swing CCGT only considered the gas day with the highest have we particular In constraints. these for to identify the most appropriate mitigation analysis detailed undertaken not We have generation, relative to the other scenarios. renewable of intermittency to the opposed as the diurnal pattern of electricity generation by driven being is swing this of proportion agreater that likely is it although swing, provide to capacity highest the having therefore and having the highest volume of CCGT generation No the Progression with consistent is This modelled. years later the towards the in highest is swing CCGT of level peak The No Progression changesto the balancing arrangements existing energy balancing and/ a combination of pipeline, compression scenario, particularly scenario scenario
54 Chapter five 55
scenario, scenario, which has the largest CCGT portfolio of the the portfolio of CCGT largest the has which scenarios and as a consequence has a higher CCGT load in the South West. Although this any without considered been has analysis stations, power new for reinforcement additional power additional these that possible is it the in reinforcement trigger could stations Medium supply profile supply Medium The analysisthen considered a ‘medium supply swing’ supply profile across all four scenarios, largely were constraints entry the which in Scotland in constraints exit the but mitigated, and the South West could still not be resolved. The issues with AOP breaches in Scotland are proposals raised we which for issue ongoing an and received funding We as part of RIIO-T1. continuehold to this issue under review pending a final decision on the most appropriate solution (unlikely be to implemented before RIIO-T2). The AOP issues in the South West are largely confined Progressionto the No or some alleviate might which West South all of the constraints identified. .
Failure achieve to AOPs in Scotland due to high demand and low supplies at St Fergus. Failure achieve to AOPs in the South West due high to demand and low supplies at Milford Haven in the early part of the gas day. These constraints occurred as a result of a variation demand within-day of combination balancing. supply late and CCGTs) (including In addition the to entry and exit constraints that were discussed results, in the a range 2017 of other constraints were identified: Flat supply profile In the 2023 scenarios analysed, it was possible solveto the network when a flat supply profile assumed. was High supply profile When a ‘high supply swing’ supply profile was applied, constraints however, were identified across all FES scenarios except Green Gone 5.3.6 2023 analysis2023 results summary 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter five South East and the other in the South West. West. South the in other the and East South regional sensitivities were carried out, one in the two NTS, the on occurrence that of impact the to assess Therefore, time. same the at market particular region to respond to the electricity CCGTs all a for in apotential is there Thus, day. agiven on occur to likely equally deemed be can generation power for demand gas of patterns spatial of range awide that means This activated. are are possible even when quite CCGTs different outcomes of consequence similar economic market different many and efficiencies, similar CCGTs many have market electricity GB the In sensitivities Regional 5.3.8 could trigger reinforcement which may alleviate West CCGTs South the in additional the that possible is it results, 2023 the in discussed As was assumed: profile supply aflat when scenarios two in identified were constraints 2030, year the For profile supply Flat summary results analysis 2030 5.3.7 methodology and assumptions Analysis 1 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 Progression Slow the in Haven, Milford at supplies to high due exceeded MOP No the Progression in area, that in profile demand CCGT to high due West, South the in AOPs to achieve Failure
scenario.
scenario.
these constraints. trigger reinforcement which may alleviate could West CCGTs South the in additional the previous sections, it is possible that the in discussed As 2030. and 2023 in scenarios the in West South the in AOPs to achieve possible not was it that meant which identified were For both these sensitivities, exit constraints analysis. 2023 the from Power Consumer the in Scotland in AOPs achieve to failure the of addition the with present, still were constraints above the applied, was profile supply swing’ supply a‘high When profile supply High area. that in risks capacity existing reflects and profiling CCGT of consequence adirect not is Haven Milford these constraints. The Entry constraint at No Progression scenario, consistent with the findings findings the with consistent scenario, and Slow Progression and
56
Chapter five 57 bcm = 1,000,000,000 bar. Description NTS to future between National Grid and a shipper relating This was an agreement NTS Exit Capacity that shippers can reserve in order pipeline capacity for large sites (See also PARCA) process. by the PARCA replaced in the long term. This has been than one, or adjacent Connected Delivery is more there A System Entry point where to gas supply terminals. to refer Facilities; the term is often used definitions of annual Different any one fiscal year. The electrical power demand in purposes. different used for demand are annual consumption over a 365-day year. The AQ of a Supply Point is its to a large consumer connected available at an offtake that we may make A pressure specified within the NExA conditions. ANOPs are to the NTS under normal operating for the site. agreement to is required the NTS to a DN that from at an offtake A minimum pressure the through and revised agreed AOPs are network. support the downstream annual OCS process. which cold spell: defined as a particular combination of weather elements Average chance of being gives rise to a level of winter peak demand which has a 50% definitions of ACS different are of weather variation alone. There exceeded as a result purposes. peak demand for different in the UK. A gas pipeline between Balgzand in the Netherlands and Bacton flows and uni-directional . This pipeline is currently http://www.bblcompany.com the Netherlands to the UK only. from (0.987 atmospheric pressure equal to that is approximately The unit of pressure the letter g, such as in barg or bar is suffixed with Where atmospheres). standard to atmospheric i.e. relative to is gauge pressure, being referred mbarg, the pressure One millibar (mbarg) equals 0.001 pressure. The costs of electricity purchased to meet minimum demand at a constant rate. The costs of electricity purchased is for each sector to Documents draw conclusions on what the BAT Reference BAT of the conclusions drawn as a result of IED. The BAT comply with the requirements for setting permit conditions. BREF documents will then form the reference (IED) 2010. In this context BAT to Industrial Emissions Directive A term used in relation Technique and means applying the most effective Available is defined as Best the basis for emission limit values and other permit methods of operation for providing that is not practicable, to reduce where and, conditions designed to prevent as a whole. emissions and the impact on the environment 1 of volume, used in the gas industry. Unit or measurement cubic metres. organic material and from Biomethane is a naturally occurring gas that is produced has similar characteristics to natural gas. http://www.biomethane.org.uk/ LNG storage tanks. This helps from A small amount of gas which continually boils off to keep the tanks cold. (MJ/m3), in megajoules per cubic metre The ratio of energy to volume measured conditions of temperature under standard and expressed which for a gas is measured and pressure. the NTS Capacity holdings give NTS Users the right to bring gas onto or take gas off Capacity rights can be (up to levels of capacity held) on any day of the gas year. up to the gas day itself. processes, shorter-term in the long term or through procured
ARCA ASEP AQ ANOP AOP ACS BBL Acronym BREF BAT bcm CV Advanced Reservation of Capacity Agreement Aggregate System Entry Point Annual power demand Annual Quantity Anticipated Normal Operating Pressure Assured Offtake Pressure cold Average spell Balgzand– Bacton Line Bar Word 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Baseload electricity price Reference BAT Documents Best Available Technique Billion cubic metres Biomethane Boil-off Calorific value Capacity Glossary Appendix 2 Chapter five Glossary 2 Appendix equivalent dioxide Carbon Cubic metre Difference Contract for Scenario Power Consumer LNG Constrained Point System Exit Connected station Compressor natural gas Compressed Variable Weather Composite Normalisation Europeén de Comité Power Heat and Combined Turbine Cycle Gas Combined dioxide Carbon storage capture and Carbon Market Capacity Word Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 CO m CfD CP CLNG CSEP CNG CWV CEN CHP CCGT CO CCS CM Acronym 3 2 2 e
emissions comefrom offossilfuels(coal,naturalgasandoil). theburning tonnes CO The CO sources likepowerplantsusedforelectricitygenerationandindustrialprocesses. isolated from theatmosphere. Capture ofCO the combustionoffossilfuelsiscaptured, transportedtoastoragelocationand example UKemissionsare roughly 600mtonnesCO gases andtheirrelative effect onclimatechangecompared tocarbondioxide.For A termusedrelating toclimatechangethataccountsforthe“basket”ofgreenhouse Carbon dioxide(CO 109 cubicmetres. (mcm) are equalto106cubicmetres, onebillioncubicmetres (bcm)equals pressure, approximately equalto35.37cubicfeet. Onemillioncubicmetres The unitofvolume,expressed understandard conditions oftemperature and electricity generatordesignedtoreduce itsexposure tovolatilewholesaleprices. Contract betweentheLowCarbonContracts Company(LCCC)andalowcarbon greenhouse gasemissions. are prevalent andfocusonthedesires ofconsumersoverandabovereducing High levelsofprosperity allowforhighinvestmentandinnovation.Newtechnologies whereby intervention. thefocusisonamarket-drivenworld,withlimitedgovernment A NationalGridscenariodefinedintheFutureEnergyScenarios(FES) document National Grid. National Grid’s request. InexchangeShippers receive atransportationcredit from a minimuminventoryinthefacilityandflowundercertaindemandconditionsat A serviceavailableatsomeLNGstoragefacilitieswhereby Shippersagree tohold system operatedbyanotherGasTransporter. containing more thanonesupplypoint.Forexampleaconnection toapipeline A pointatwhichnaturalgasissuppliedfrom theNTStoaconnectedsystem gas through thenetwork. pressures inthepipelinesystem.Usedtoincrease transmissioncapacityandmove An installationthatusesgasturbineorelectricity-drivencompressors toboost of thevolumeitoccupiesatstandard atmosphericpressure. Compressed naturalgasismadebycompressing naturalgastolessthan1percent on 1October2015. speed. We haveadoptedthenewindustrywideCWVequationsthattookeffect A measure ofweatherincorporatingtheeffects ofbothtemperature andwind maintenance anddistributionofstandards andspecifications. European committeeforstandardisation withthedevelopment, concerned one process. Coversarangeoftechnologiesthatachievethis. A systemwhereby bothheatandelectricityare generatedsimultaneouslyaspartof generator togeneratemore electricity. (SeealsoOCGT) produce steaminaheatrecovery drivesasteamturbine boilerwhichinturn, generator togenerateelectricity. Theresidual heatfrom thisprocess isusedto Gas turbinethatusesthecombustionofnaturalgasordieseltodrivea its contributiontoCO gases suchasmethane,whichhas21timesmore effect asagreenhouse gas,hence formations orforuseinindustrialprocesses. Carbon (CO electricity revenues, ensuringtheydeliverenergywhenneeded. achieved byproviding apaymentforreliable sources ofcapacity, alongsidetheir The CapacityMarketisdesignedtoensure securityofelectricitysupply. Thisis Description 2 isthencompressed andtransportedforlong-termstorageingeological 2 andlessthanthe150mtonnesremaining ofmore potentgreenhouse 2 ) capture andstorage(CCS)isaprocess bywhichtheCO 2 ) isthemaingreenhouse gasandthevastmajorityofCO 2 e willbe21timesitsmass. 2 canbeappliedtolargeemission 2 e. Thisconstitutesroughly 450m 2 produced in 2
58 Chapter five 59
barg), mbarg). barg, pipeline systems. barg) and low (less than 75 mbarg to 2 a Capacity Market, which will help ensure security of electricity supply at the least a Capacity Market, which will help ensure cost to the consumer stabilisation for new revenue long-term which will provide contracts for Difference, low carbon initiatives. Description Facility Operator (DFO) and National Grid, A communication between a Delivery that facility. entry flows from indicating hourly and end-of-day which enables meter for example a datalogger, A Supply Point fitted with equipment, to be taken on a daily basis. readings and meters who processes terminal or storage facility, The operator of a reception the gas to transferring storage facilities before pipelines or offshore gas deliveries from the NTS. DECC. This is a newly formed UK government that replaces department Formerly a UK government & Climate Change department: the Department of Energy for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (DECC) became part of the Department (BEIS) in July 2016. consent for a under the Planning Act (2008) which provides A statutory Order a DCO to be obtained, and the require Significant new pipelines development project. DCOs if a new high voltage stations may also require construction of new compressor (HV) electricity connection is required. users, connection to the NTS typically to power stations and large industrial Direct a Distribution Network. from i.e. the connection is not via supply provided and domestic A gas transportation system that delivers gas to industrial, commercial eight DNs, currently are There consumers within a defined geographical boundary. Distribution Zones (LDZs). DNs typically operate Local each consisting of one or more than the NTS. at lower pressures Networks that are Distribution Network Operators own and operate the Distribution supplied by the NTS. tiers: intermediate (2 to 7 pressure A network of mains operating at three medium (75 on an annual basis. Gas stored for the purpose of meeting, among other things, within-day variations in for the purpose of meeting, among other things, within-day Gas stored in special installations, such as in the form of gas system demand. Gas can be stored stock within transmission, i.e. >7 electricity, low-carbon A government policy to incentivise investment in secure, for affordability and improve electricity supply, Britain’s the security of Great improve a number of mechanisms. In particular: consumers. The Energy Act 2013 introduced by delivery partners of the Department of Business, Both will be administered Grid Electricity Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). This includes National (NGET). Transmission development of the National Electricity The ETYS illustrates the potential future System (NETS) over a ten-year (minimum) period and is published Transmission DECC Acronym DFN DM DFO BEIS DCO DC DN DNO EMR ETYS Department of Energy & Climate Change Word Daily Flow Notification Daily Metered Supply Point Delivery Facility Operator Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy Development Consent Order Directly Connected (offtake) Distribution Network Distribution Network Operator Distribution system Diurnal storage Electricity Market Reform Electricity Ten Statement Year 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter five Glossary 2 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 Statement Gas Ten Year Linepack Stock Levelor Gas System Year Gas Supply 1996 Regulations (Management) Gas Safety Warning Gas Deficit Scenarios Future Energy Design Engineering Front End Exit Zone Gas Operators for System Transmission Network of European Assessment Impact Environmental Association Networks Energy Value Emission Limit Word GTYS GS(M)R FES FEED ENTSOG EIA ENA ELV Acronym
(UNC) requirements. to theNationalTransmission Systemandtocomplywith UniformNetworkCode Gas plc’s obligationsinSpecialCondition7Aof theGasTransporters Licencerelating The GasTen Year Statementispublishedannuallyin accordance withNationalGrid The volumeofgaswithintheNationalorLocal Transmission Systemat anytime. A twelve-monthperiodcommencing1October, alsoreferred toas a GasYear. arrangements inplacetoensure compliancewithGS(M)R requirements. Gas Transporters are required tosubmitasafetycase the HSEdetailing (d) (c) (b) (a) to domesticandotherconsumerscoverfourmainareas: Regulations whichapplytotheconveyanceofnaturalgas(methane)through pipes provide awithin-daymarketresponse toaphysicalsupply/demandimbalance. The purposeofaGasDeficit istoalerttheindustrya Warning requirement to identify future operabilitychallengesandpotentialsolutions. starting pointforalltransmissionnetworkandinvestmentplanning,are usedto 2050, andare usedtoframediscussionsandperformstress tests.Theyformthe the energyindustry. Theyare asetofscenarioscoveringtheperiodfrom nowto The FESisarangeofcredible futures whichhasbeendevelopedinconjunctionwith approximate budgetinvestmentcostfortheproject. study. TheFEEDdesignfocusesonthetechnicalrequirements aswellan The FEEDisbasicengineeringwhichcomesaftertheConceptualdesignorFeasibility on apeakday, receive gasfrom thesameNTSofftake. A geographicalarea (withinanLDZ)thatconsistsofagroup ofsupplypointsthat, transmission systeminlinewithEuropean Unionenergygoals. Operators (TSOs)across Europe toensure thedevelopmentofapan-European Organisation tofacilitatecooperationbetweennationalgasTransmission System Environmental ImpactAssessmentDirective) totheplanningsysteminEngland. certain publicandprivateprojects ontheenvironment” (usuallyreferred toasthe 2011. Theseregulations applytheEUdirective “ontheassessmentofeffects of and theTown andCountryPlanning(Environmental ImpactAssessment)Regulations Environmental studyofproposed developmentworksasrequired underEUregulation transmission anddistributionlicenceholders. The EnergyNetworksAssociationisanindustryassociationfundedbygasor accidental emissionsandsiterestoration. conditions alsohavetoaddress energyefficiency, wasteminimisation,prevention of of pollutantslikelytobeemittedinsignificantquantitiesair on theapplicationofBestAvailable Techniques (BAT) andsettominimiseemissions required tohaveapermitcontainingemissionlimitvaluesandotherconditionsbased Prevention andControl (IPPC)(2008/1/EC).EachinstallationsubjecttoIPPCis and Control regime. ThisimplementstheEUDirective onIntegratedPollution Pollution from largerindustrialinstallationsisregulated underthePollutionPrevention Description gas composition. arrangements fordealingwithreported gasescapesandincidents arrangements fordealingwithsupplyemergencies supply emergency supplying domesticconsumers,andadutytominimisetheriskofgas the safemanagementofgasflowthrough anetwork,particularlythoseparts , waterorland.Permit 60 Chapter five 61 GWh. kWh, one gigawatt hour (GWh) equals equivalent emissions per kWh of energy used or produced. equivalent emissions per kWh 2 MWh, and one terawatt hour (TWh) equals 1000 Description licensed by such as National Grid, are (PGT), GTs, Formerly Public Gas Transporter Authority (GEMA) to transport gas to consumers. the Gas and Electricity Markets diurnal storage. gas for the purposes of providing A vessel used to store of power. 1,000,000,000 watts, a measure of energy. 1,000,000,000 watt hours, a unit in the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) document A National Grid scenario defined and goals, high levels of prosperity the focus is on long-term environmental whereby target 2050 carbon reduction that the harmonisation that ensure advanced European is achieved. A geographical, social and economic grouping of countries that contains England, A geographical, social and economic grouping Scotland and Wales. on 6 January 2011. IED recasts came into force The Industrial Emissions Directive coherent to industrial emissions into a single clear, related seven existing Directives Incineration Directive, the Waste includes IPPC, LCP, legislative instrument. The recast on Titanium Directives Dioxide. and three the Solvents Emissions Directive and monitor the Gas Transmission Used by National Grid System Operation to control stakeholders within the market information to interested system, and also to provide gas industry. to EU-wide legislation; the predominant subject our installations are Emissions from 1999, the (IPPC) Directive & Control legislation is the Integrated Pollution Prevention (LCPD) 2001 and the Industrial Emissions Directive Large Combustion Plant Directive now been incorporated into the have of these directives (IED) 2010. The requirements (Amendment) Regulations 2013 (with Permitting (England and Wales) Environmental applying in Scotland). similar regulations installations and contributes to industrial emissions from IPPC aims to reduce policy targets and compliance with EU directives. meeting various environment to apply for an IPPC permit. required Since 31 October 2000, new installations are permit over a phased to apply for an IPPC required Existing installations were timetable until October 2007. transports gas The Irish Interconnector A pipeline transporting gas to another country. The Belgian and Northern Ireland. the Irish Sea to both the Republic of Ireland across The Belgian (IUK) transports gas between Bacton and Zeebrugge. Interconnector The Dutch Interconnector is capable of flowing gas in either direction. Interconnector Bacton. It is currently (BBL) transports gas between Balgzand in the Netherlands and the Netherlands to the UK. capable of flowing only from Belgium. gas pipeline between Bacton in the UK and Zeebrugge A bi-directional http://www.interconnector.com An intergovernmental organisation that acts as energy policy advisor to 28 member countries. to 0.0341 therms. equal Approximately A unit of energy used by the gas industry. One megawatt hour (MWh) equals 1000 1000 which introduced Union Directive is a European The Large Combustion Plant Directive and dust of nitrogen the emissions of sulphur dioxide, oxides to control measures combustion plant, including power stations. large from Measurement of CO Measurement /kWh 2 GW GWh GG gCO Acronym GB IED IGMS IPPC IUK IEA kWh LCP Gas Transporter Gasholder Gigawatt Gigawatt hour Gone Green scenario Gram of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour Word 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Great Britain Great Industrial Emissions Directive Integrated Gas Management System Control Integrated Pollution Prevention & Control 1999 Directive Interconnector Interconnector (UK) International Energy Agency Kilowatt Hour Large Combustion Plant Directive 2001 Chapter five Glossary 2 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 System Transmission National point balancing National metres Million cubic hour Megawatt storage Medium-range Plant (Directive) Combustion Medium Pressure Operating Maximum Margins Notice Capacity System Entry Long Term storage seasonal storage or Long range System Transmission Local Zone Distribution Local curve (average) Load duration severe) curve (1-in-50 Load duration Storage Natural Gas Liquefied natural gas Liquefied Stock Level Gas System Linepack or Word NTS NBP mcm MWh MRS MCP MOP LTSEC LRS LTS LDZ LNGS LNG Acronym
to NTSofftakes andare designedtooperateuppressures of94 pipelines, multijunction sitesandofftakes. NTSpipelinestransportgasfrom terminals A high-pressure gas transportation systemconsistingofcompressor stations, usually quotedinpriceperthermofgas. gas comesfrom. This iscalledthenationalbalancingpoint(NBP)priceofgasand The wholesalegasmarketinBritainhasoneprice forgasirrespective ofwhere the cubic metres. Unit ormeasurement ofvolume,usedinthegasindustry. 1 1,000,000 watts,ameasure ofpowerusageorconsumptionin1hour. roundsthemselves tofastday-to-dayturn asmarketpricesanddemanddictate. Typically, thesestorage facilitieshaveveryfastinjectionandwithdrawalratesthatlend from sitesbelow50 The MediumCombustionPlant(MCP)directive willapplylimitsonemissionstoair These are safepressure limitsatwhichwecanoperateourpipelines. demand imbalance. that there maybetheneedforamarketresponse toapotentialphysicalsupply/ The purposeoftheMarginsNoticeistoprovide theindustrywithadayaheadsignal an auctionprocess. ThisisalsoknownasQuarterlySystemEntry Capacity(QSEC). NTS EntryCapacityavailableonalong-termbasis(upto17yearsintothefuture) via http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Our-company/Gas/Gas-Storage/ storage (called‘injection’)inthesummerandtakesgasoutofwinter. situated off theYorkshire coast.RoughisownedbyCentricaandmainlyputsgasinto There isonelong-rangestoragesiteonthenationaltransmissionsystem:Rough, from theLTS. distribution systemlowpressure pipelines.Somelargeusersmaytaketheirgasdirect A pipelinesystemoperatingat>7 Transmission System. A gasdistributionzoneconnectingenduserstothe(gas)National curve andabovethethreshold. volume ofdemandaboveanygiventhreshold, isrepresented bythearea underthe connected loadheldatthelevelsappropriate totheyearinquestion,average The averageloaddurationcurveisthatwhich,inalongseriesofwinters,with fifty years. the area underthecurveandabovethreshold) wouldbeexceededinoneoutof such thatthevolumeofdemandaboveanygiventhreshold (represented by with connectedloadheldatthelevelsappropriate totheyearinquestion,wouldbe The 1-in-50severe loaddurationcurveisthatwhich,inalongseriesofyears, The storageofliquefiednaturalgas. what-is-lng/ than initsgaseousform.www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/Services/Grain-lng/ LNG isformedbychillinggasto-161˚Csothatitoccupies600timeslessspace The volumeofgaswithintheNationalorLocalTransmission Systematanytime. Description MW thermalinput.MCPislikelytocomeintoforce by2020. barg thattransportsgasfrom NTS/LDZofftakes to mcm =1,000,000 bar(g). 62 Chapter five 63 MWh pa, reconciled individually when the meter MWh pa, reconciled Description LTS or a very large consumer. between NTS and An installation defining the boundary regulation, for metering, pressure installation includes equipment The offtake odourisation equipment etc. making, optioneering, development, sanction, NDP defines the method for decision is to deliver The aim of the NDP all National Grid gas projects. for delivery and closure stakeholder fit for purpose and meet cost, are that have the lowest whole-life projects and RIIO requirements. or Distribution Network Operator prior to any gas A NExA is signed by a gas shipper Within the system. being taken off transporter sets out the technical the NExA the gas permitted flow rate, such as the maximum offtake and operational conditions of the and ongoing charges. pressure offtake the assured Grid is unable to maintain a supply – demand balance A NGSE occurs when National balancing tools. A NGSE could be caused by a on the NTS using its normal system of a gas terminal or as of the failure as a result major loss of supplies to the system to transport the ability of the system affecting of damage to a NTS pipeline the result (NEC) Co-ordinator gas to consumers. In such an event the Network Emergency would enable National Grid to use a NGSE. This to declare would be requested – demand balance. Options include a supply additional balancing tools to restore gas to the NTS or requiring additional gas supplies be delivered requesting stop using gas. These consumers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, to to maintain supplies as tools will be used, under the authorisation of the NEC, to try long as possible to domestic gas consumers. Year in our Electricity Ten capacity requirements The NOA builds upon the future that we the network investment recommendations Statement (ETYS) and presents electricity transmission network. the GB across believe will meet these requirements contributors to pollution, acid of chemical compounds, some of which are A group gases. classified as greenhouse rain or are is less money available and less emphasis on there to Gone Green Compared and Government policy and recovery is slower economic There sustainability. The 2020 introduced. and no new targets are the same as today, remains regulation energy target for 2020 is unlikely to be met. renewable monthly or at longer intervals. For the purposes of daily A meter that is read supply formula, and for balancing, the consumption is apportioned, using an agreed than 73.2 points consuming more is read. make it easier by which the distinctive odour is added to gas supplies to The process to detect leaks. a non-ministerial government The UK's independent National Regulatory Authority, of existing and future the interests department. Their principal objective is to protect electricity and gas consumers. by which Distribution Network Operators apply for Exit (Flex) This is the process Exit changes to the Capacity on an annual basis. This allows the DNOs to request pressures. offtake in assured increases (Flex) Capacity holdings and also request It is a oil and gas industry. body for the UK offshore Oil & Gas UK is a representative organisation, established in April 2007. http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk not-for-profit anonymous This market constitutes the balancing market for GB and enables on-the-day trading between market participants. financially cleared fuel is before element in the compressor Gas turbines in which air is first compressed also CCGT) (See injected and burned in the combustor. under certain to maintain system pressures Gas used by National Grid Transmission including periods immediately after a supply loss or demand forecast circumstances, and in the event of plant failure, become effective other measures change, before trips. and compressor such as pipe breaks Acronym NDP NExA NGSE NOA NOx NP NDM Ofgem OCS OCM OCGT OM Word National Transmission System Offtake Network Development Process Network Exit Agreement Network Gas Supply Emergency Network Options Assessment oxide Nitrous No Progression scenario Non-Daily Metered Odourisation Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Offtake Capacity Statement Oil & Gas UK On-the-day Commodity Market Open Cycle Gas Turbine Operating margins 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter five Glossary 2 Appendix Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 Monitors Safety RIIO-T1 Capacity System Entry Quarterly Linepack Closing Projected connections low cost customer Project model Power Market Agreement Consent Planning Agreement of Capacity Reservation Advanced Planning and Per annum demand, Gas Peak day Electricity demand, Peak day Own UseGas Word QSEC PCLP CLoCC PCA PARCA pa Acronym
below thislevel. include useofemergency procedures) inorder toprevent storagestocksreducing declines asthewinterprogresses). NationalGridisrequired totakeaction(whichmay Total shippergasstocksshouldnotfallbelowthe relevant monitorlevel(which to meetitsUniformNetwork Coderequirements andthe terms ofitssafetycase. monitor forspaceandonedeliverability. Theseare determinedbyNationalGrid transportation systemundersevere conditions.There isnowjustasinglesafety sufficient gasisheldinstoragetounderpinthe safeoperationofthegas network. Theresultant storagestocksormonitorsare designedtoensure that from thenetworkandalsotosupportprocess ofisolatinglargeloadsfrom the requirements determinedtobenecessaryprotect loadsthatcannotbeisolated Safety Monitorsintermsofspaceanddeliverability are minimumstorage 31 March 2021.ForNationalGridTransmission thisisreferred toasRIIO-T1. RIIO relates tothecurrent Ofgemprice control periodwhichrunsfrom 1April2013to an auctionprocess. AlsoknownasLongTerm SystemEntryCapacity(LTSEC). NTS entrycapacityavailableonalong-termbasis(upto17yearsintothefuture) via (See alsoLinepackorGasSystemStocks) Closing Linepack(PCLP)metricisusedasanindicatorofend-of-daymarketbalance. market balancewhere totalsupplyequals,oriscloseto,demand. TheProjected Grid, asresidual balanceroftheUKgasmarket,needtoensure anend-of-day levels fluctuate due to imbalances between supply and demand over the day. National Linepack isthevolumeofgasstored withintheNTS.Throughout agasdaylinepack http://projectclocc.com and existingcustomers.Formore informationontheproject visitthewebsite: innovative solutiontoreduce thetimeandcostofconnectingto theNTSfornew National Gridsecured £4.8mofOfgemfundingtodesignandbuild an supply anddemandetc. based onavarietyoffactorssuchasenergyprices,generationtypeandavailability, This modelisusedtoprovide outputsthatsimulatecredible powermarketconditions the PARCA process. (SeePARCA) Development ConsentOrder (DCO)andapplication.Thishasnowbeenreplaced by Assessment, statutoryandlocalcommunityconsultations,preparation ofthe Planning Actactivitiessuchasstrategicoptioneering,Environmental Impact customer wouldunderwriteNationalGridNTStoundertaketherequired statutory formal capacitysignalfrom thecustomer. Where aNeedCasewasidentified,the reinforcement andwouldundertakeanynecessaryplanningactivitiesaheadofa DNOs orShipperswhereby NationalGridassessedtheNeedCaseforNTS requests andcomprisedabilateralagreement betweenNationalGridanddevelopers, Planning ConsentAgreements were madeinrelation toNTSEntryandExitCapacity and ARCAs.(SeealsoARCA&PCA) PARCAs were implementedon1February2015andreplace thefunctionsofPCAs which havebeendevelopedfollowingtheimplementationofPlanningAct(2008). A solutiondevelopedinlinewiththeenduringincremental capacityrelease solutions Per year exceeded inoneoutof20winters,witheachwintercountedonlyonce. with connectedloadheldatlevelsappropriate tothewinterinquestion,wouldbe The 1-in-20peakdaydemandisthelevelofthat,inalongserieswinters, definitions ofpeakdemandare usedfordifferent purposes. around 17:30hrsonaweek-daybetweenDecemberandFebruary. Different The maximumpowerdemandinanyonefiscalyear:Peaktypicallyoccursat for compressor fuel,heatingandventing. Gas usedbyNationalGridtooperatethetransportationsystem.Includesgas Description 64 Chapter five 65
elation kWh. Description Scotland. for regulator The environmental CWV is the smoothed average of the values The seasonal normal value of the years. day in a significant number of previous of the applicable CWV for that (See also CWV) It is extracted by injecting water, found is shale rock. Shale gas is natural gas that is so that the shale cracks or fractures to create rock sand and chemicals into the shale gas can be extracted. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ about-shale-gas-and-hydraulic-fracturing-fracking North Sea (CNS) to Bacton. the Central pipeline from The offshore sell it to a producer, A company with a Shipper Licence that is able to buy gas from a supplier and employ a GT to transport gas to consumers. into to consumers or injected Gas that is input to the system but is not delivered storage. It is either Own Use Gas or Unaccounted for Gas. document A National Grid scenario defined in the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) energy target for 2020 is not met. Although regulation the 2020 renewable whereby is less economic growth scenario there similar to the Gone Green and targets are and targets. policy delivery of environmental which prevents to activities reporting statutory Planning Act Output of the PCA, ARCA and PARCA Grid in r the customer on the findings of optioneering analysis by National for NTS Entry or Exit Capacity. to the customer request one or more of moving unsold capacity from Capacity substitution is the process demand for that capacity exceeds the available where system points to another, period. This avoids the construction of new assets capacity quantities for the relevant in operational risk. or material increases licence contracts with a shipper to buy gas, which is A company with a supplier’s a shipper. then sold to consumers. A supplier may also be licensed as The quantity of supply on an hourly basis. The maximum daily consumption at a Supply Point. meter points at a site. of one or more A group and operational The ability to maintain system stability and all of the asset ratings economically and sustainably. limits safely, parameters within pre-defined gas or power on An entity entrusted with transporting energy in the form of natural Unlike a TSO, the SO may not or national level, using fixed infrastructure. a regional necessarily own the assets concerned. For example, National Grid operates the Scottish Hydro electricity transmission system in Scotland, which is owned by Scottish Power. and Electricity Transmission 1,000,000,000,000 watt hours, a unit of energy. by the metric equivalent: the kilowatt hour Largely replaced An imperial unit of energy. (kWh). 1 therm equals 29.3071 SEPA SNCWV SEAL SP SOR SHQ SOQ SO TWh Acronym Scottish Environment Protection Agency Seasonal Normal Composite Weather Variable Shale gas Shearwater Line Elgin Area Shipper or Uniform Network Code (Shipper) User Shrinkage Slow Progression scenario Strategic Options Report Substitution Supplier Supply Hourly Quantity Supply Offtake Quantity Supply Point System Operability System Operator hour Terawatt Therm Word 2016 November Planning Operability Future Gas Chapter five Glossary 2 Appendix demand corrected Weather- Drives Variable Speed Ireland and Northern Great Britain Kingdom of United Shelf Continental Kingdom United Network Code Uniform for Gas Unaccounted Operator System Transmission Planning Code Transmission Entry Capacity Transmission Word Gas Future OperabilityPlanningNovember2016 VSD UK UKCS UNC UAG TSO TPC TEC Acronym
between theactualweatherandseasonalnormalweather. The actualdemandfigure thathasbeenadjustedtotakeaccount ofthedifference match theworkload. compressors are more energyefficientandoperatemore quietlybyvaryingspeedto capacity requirement. Variable speeddrivecompressors compared toconstantspeed Compressor technologywhere thedrivespeedcanbevariedwithchangesin Scotland, Wales Ireland. andNorthern A geographical,socialandeconomicgrouping ofcountriesthatcontainsEngland, and exploitationofnaturalresources. beyond theterritorialseaoverwhichUKexercises sovereign rightsofexploration The UKContinentalShelf(UKCS)comprisesthoseareas oftheseabedandsubsoil Principal Document(TPD)andOfftake ArrangementsDocument(OAD). market. TheUNCcomprisesdifferent documentsincludingtheTransportation arrangements betweentheGasTransporters andShippersoperatingintheUKgas The UniformNetworkCodeisthelegalandcommercial the frameworkthatgoverns of calculatingtheCalorific Value. Gas “lost” during transportation. Includes leakage, theft and losses due to the method on aregional ornationallevel,usingfixedinfrastructure. An entityentrustedwithtransportingenergyintheformofnaturalgasorpower is subjecttoapproval bytheGasandElectricityMarketsAuthority(GEMA). statutory obligationsrelating tosafetyandenvironmental matters.Thedocument developing theNTSinaccordance withitsdutiesasagastransporterandother The Transmission PlanningCodedescribesNationalGrid’s approach toplanningand auxiliary loads. power deliverablebyallofthegeneratingunitswithinstation,minusany entry point(whichcanbeeitheronshore oroffshore). Thiswillbethemaximum The maximumamountofactivepowerdeliverablebyastationatitsgrid Description
66 Gas Future Operability Planning November 2016
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