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Public Disclosure Authorized TTHIIE /O IRILD IBANIK IRIFS IEA IRCIHI IROG IRAM Public Disclosure Authorized 1998 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ABSTRACTSOFCURRENT STUDIES RX . .. THE WORLD BANK RESEARCH PROGRAM 1998 ABSTRACTS OF CURRENT STUDIES THE WORLD BANK WASHINGTON, DC Definition of World Bank Research Research at the Bank encompasses analytical work designed to produce results with wide applicability across countries or sectors. Bank research, in contrast to academic research, is directed toward recognized and emerg- ing policy issues and is focused on yielding better policy advice. Although motivated by policy problems, Bank research addresses longer-term concerns rather than the immediate needs of a particular Bank lending opera- tion or of a particular country or sector report. Activities classified as research at the Bank do not, therefore, include the economic and sector work and policy analysis carried out by Bank staff to support operations in particular countries. Economic and sector work and policy studies take the product of research and adapt it to specific pro- jects or country settings, whereas Bank research contributes to the intellectual foundations of future lending operations and policy advice. Both activities-research and economic and sector work-are critical to the design of successful projects and effective policy. Copyright © 1998 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANP 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved. First printing September 1998 Manufactured in the United States of America ISSN 0258-3143 ISBN 0-8213-4176-6 This report has been prepared by the staff of the World Bank. The judgments expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors or of the governments they represent. CONTENTS Introduction 1 Studies by Subject Area 3 Abstracts of Current Studies 9 Poverty and Social Welfare 11 Labor Markets and Education 34 Environmentally Sustainable Development 48 Infrastructure and Urban Development 69 Macroeconomics 78 International Economics 87 Domestic Finance and Capital Markets 107 Transition Economies 116 Private Sector Development and Public Sector Management 125 Bank Research Output 139 Index of Studies by Department 167 iii INTRODUCTION The World Bank's research program has four basic objec- consistency in the evaluation's findings. The study tives: to broaden understanding of development, to assist showed that operational staff do know about research in developing research capacity in its member coun- in their field, use it in their jobs, and find it valuable. But tries, to improve the Bank's capacity to advise its mem- they say that some studies are not relevant to their work, bers, and to support all aspects of its own operations. The and they would like reports to directly explain the oper- program's success is evaluated across all these objectives. ational implications of research findings. Operational Past evaluation of Bank research has focused primar- staff also would like to have more input in setting the ily on the first two objectives, judging its external influ- Bank's research agenda. They would like to see more ence. Reviews by international experts, surveys of readers research in such areas as social issues in economic devel- of research reports, and bibliometric measures have all opment, public sector and civil service reform, political been used to assess the contributions of Bank research economy and institutional development, and adaptation to knowledge about international, regional, and domes- of lessons for the small countries that make up most of tic policy issues and the value of Bank support of the Bank's clients. They valued briefs on research pro- local research institutions and initiatives in developing jects, which make results quickly accessible. And they countries. suggested that mailing lists be developed to direct A recent evaluation program investigated the suc- research results to specialist audiences both within and cess of World Bank research in fulfilling the other two outside the World Bank. objectives-meeting the needs of the Bank's lending oper- The evaluation's findings suggest ways to build on ations staff and thus improving the advice and assistance existing strengths of the research program and to to member countries. The aim was to determine whether strengthen weak areas in support of the Bank's opera- operational staff are aware of Bank research in their area tions. The results have been discussed by the World Bank's of expertise, whether they value it, and whether they management and its Executive Directors and will be use it in their jobs. reflected in the future research program and in the Using several techniques, the evaluation compiled evi- abstracts of research projects in future editions of this dence on operational staff's use of the information gen- report. erated by research and their views on the value of that information. Through focus group discussions, opera- What Research Is Now Under Way? tional staff first identified the key issues to be covered in the evaluation and considered methods for compiling This volume reports on research projects initiated, under information on those issues. These discussions resulted way, or completed in fiscal 1998 auly 1, 1997, through in a wide-ranging questionnaire, administered to oper- June 30, 1998). The abstracts in the volume describe, for ational advisers and experts, on the service that research each project, the questions addressed, the analytical meth- provides to operations. A second questionnaire, distrib- ods used, the findings to date, and their policy implica- uted to task managers in the regional offices, asked about tions. Each abstract also identifies the expected completion the value of Bank researchers' assistance in lending and date, the research team, and any reports or publications advisory work. A third exercise tracked more than 60 produced. To make it easier to obtain information and research projects, querying operational staff about their data, each abstract gives the email address for the research use of the studies' results in analyzing developing coun- project's supervisor. tries' policies and needs, in advising clients, in design- The abstracts cover 193 research projects from through- ing lending projects and programs, and in developing out the Bank, grouped under nine major headings: operational policies and practices. In addition, interviews * Poverty and social welfare, including equity, demo- of most of the Bank's lead specialists and lead economists graphics, and health and nutrition. elicited suggestions of changes in Bank research that could * Labor markets and education. enhance its value. * Environmentally sustainable development, includ- Despite the diversity among the operational staff sur- ing environmental economics, energy, agriculture, and veyed and the Bank's research projects, there was much natural resources. I Introduction * Infrastructure and urban development. to-date information on Bank research projects and their * Macroeconomics, including monetary and fiscal pol- findings may wish to subscribe to the quarterly Policy icy and adjustment. and Research Bulletin. Each issue includes information * International economics, including trade, finance, on recent World Bank publications and working papers, and debt. abstracts of newly initiated research projects and sum- * Domestic finance and capital markets. maries of recent research findings, a column identifying * Transition economies. electronic information available from the Bank, and a * Private sector development and public sector man- form for ordering reports featured in that issue. The bul- agement, including industrial organization, regulation, letin is available free of charge. For information on how institutions, political economy, and privatization. to subscribe, see the subscription request form at the back An appendix lists reports and publications produced of this volume. from Bank research and explains how to obtain them. The bulletin, Abstracts of Current Studies, abstracts of Finally, the abstracts are indexed by the sponsoring articles in the Bank's two journals, the World BankResearch unit. Observerand World Bank Economic Review, and a host of Bank reports are available on the World Wide Web at How to Get More Information http://www.worldbank.org.Research reports and informa- tion on the World Bank's research branch, the Develop- This is the annual compendium of current Bank research. ment Economics Senior Vice Presidency, are available at Readers interested in obtaining more frequent and up- http://www.worldbank.orglhtml/dec/home.html. 2 STUDIES BY SUBJECT AREA Poverty and Social Welfare 11 Decentralizing SafetyNets: Community Choices and Their Impact on Households (680-98C) 11 Policies for Poor Areas (681-39) 12 Incentives for DoctorPlacements in Rural and RemoteAreas (681-56C) 13 Poverty and Income Distribution Dynamics in a High-Growth Economy:The Case of Chile, 1987-94(681-59C) 13 Does SchoolingExpansion Equalize Income? (681-67C) 14 The Measurement and Prediction of Poverty in an Aging World (681-73C) 15 Poverty and the International Economy:What Are the Links? (681-83) 16 Quantifying the Net EconomicLoss or Gain from TobaccoUse (681-95) 16 A New Approach to ValuingMortality Risk Reductions (682-12) 17 The Political Economyof Pension Reform (682-17) 17 Best Practices in Public-Private Health Program Design (682-20) 18 Socialand EconomicDeterminants of Poverty