Community early warning systems: Howguiding preparedness principles pays off Evolution, costs, benefits and prospects of disaster risk management in Georgia www.ifrc.org Saving lives, changing minds. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is the world’s largest volunteer-based humanitarian network. Together with our 189 member National Red Cross and Red Crescent TheSocieties International worldwide, Federation we reach of 97 Red million Cross people and Red annually Crescent through Societies long- (IFRC)term services is the world’s and development largest volunteer-based programmes humanitarian as well as 85 millionnetwork. people Togetherthrough disasterwith our response 189 member and earlyNational recovery Red Cross programmes. and Red WeCrescent act before, Societiesduring and worldwide, after disasters we reach and 97 health million emergencies people annually to meet through the needs long- and termimprove services the lives and ofdevelopment vulnerable people.programmes We do as so well with as impartiality 85 million peopleas to throughnationality, disaster race, responsegender, religious and early beliefs, recovery class programmes. and political We opinions. act before, during and after disasters and health emergencies to meet the needs and Guided by Strategy 2020 – our collective plan of action to tackle the improve the lives of vulnerable people. We do so with impartiality as to major humanitarian and development challenges of this decade – we are nationality, race, gender, religious beliefs, class and political opinions. committed to ‘saving lives and changing minds’. Guided by Strategy 2020 – our collective plan of action to tackle the Our strength lies in our volunteer network, our community-based major humanitarian and development challenges of this decade – we are expertise and our independence and neutrality. We work to improve committed to ‘saving lives and changing minds’. humanitarian standards, as partners in development and in response to disasters. We persuade decision-makers to act at all times in the interests Our strength lies in our volunteer network, our community-based of vulnerable people. expertise and our independence and neutrality. We work to improve humanitarian standards, as partners in development and in response to The result: we enable healthy and safe communities, reduce vulnerabilities, disasters. We persuade decision-makers to act at all times in the interests strengthen resilience and foster a culture of peace around the world. of vulnerable people. The result: we enable healthy and safe communities, reduce vulnerabilities, strengthen resilience and foster a culture of peace around the world. © International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva, 20142016 Any part of this publication may be cited, copied, translated into ©other International languages Federationor adapted toof meetRed Cross local needsand Red without Crescent prior Societies, Geneva,permission 2014 from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, provided that the source is clearly stated. Requests P.O. Box 303 Anyfor commercial part of this reproductionpublication may should be cited, be directed copied, to translated the IFRC atinto CH-1211 Geneva 19 [email protected] languages or adapted to meet local needs without prior Switzerland permission from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Telephone: +41 22 730 4222 CrescentAll photos Societies, used in thisprovided study that are copyrightthe source of is the clearly IFRC stated. unless Requests P.O.Telefax: Box 303+41 22 733 0395 forotherwise commercial indicated. reproduction should be directed to the IFRC at CH-1211E-mail: [email protected] Geneva 19 [email protected] SwitzerlandWeb site: www.ifrc.org Cover photo: GennikePatrick Bolte,Mayers, Banyaneer IFRC. Telephone: +41 22 730 4222 How preparedness pays off. AllHaitian photos Red usedCross innurse this Thattia study Augustave, are copyright explains of the to children IFRC unless the proper way Telefax:Haiti fve-year +41 22 733progress 0395 report Evolution, costs, benefits and prospects otherwise indicated. E-mail: [email protected] to wash their hands in order to prevent diseases like cholera. 1287600of disaster 12/2014 risk management E in Georgia Web site: www.ifrc.org Cover photo: Gennike Mayers, IFRC. Haitian Red Cross nurse Thattia Augustave, explains to children the proper way Haiti fve-year progress report to wash their hands in order to prevent diseases like cholera. 1287600 12/2014 E Table of contents Abbreviations i Executive summary i Introduction 1 1. Georgia and disasters 2 1.1 General country context 2 1.2 Hazards and disasters 3 2. Evolution of disaster risk management 5 2.1 Georgia Red Cross Society (GRCS): an overview 5 2.2 Evolution of GRCS disaster risk management 5 3. Analysing costs and benefits 7 3.1 Introducing cost-benefit analysis 8 3.2 Calculating costs 9 3.3 Calculating benefits 10 4. Findings: how DRR pays off 13 4.1 Survey results: from training to preparedness to loss avoidance 13 4.2 Organisational co-benefits: the value of a stronger Red Cross 17 4.3 Case study 1: Ambrolauri 18 4.4 Case study 2: Sagarejo 20 4.5 Case study 3: Lagodekhi 21 4.6 Other branches, summary 22 5. Outlook and recommendations 24 5.1 Building on success factors 24 5.2 Addressing gaps 25 5.3 Cost-benefit analyses and the dilemma of disaster risk reduction 26 6. Conclusion 27 Appendix: Literature 28 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies i | Cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk reduction in Georgia Abbreviations Executive summary AAL Annual avoided losses Does disaster risk reduction actually pay off? If so, what are the benefits and underlying mechanisms? This cost- ADA Austrian Development Agency benefit analysis (CBA) finds that the USD 2.4 million of AHL Avoided hazard losses external support to the disaster risk management pro- APR Annual probability rate gramme of Georgia Red Cross Society (GRCS), launched in 2010, has paid off extremely well: In the three surveyed AutRC Austrian Red Cross areas, identified benefit-cost ratios range between 12.51 BCR Benefit-cost ratio and 54.54. CBA Cost-benefit analysis The study identifies avoided hazard losses as the main CCA Climate change adaptation benefit and analyses the various channels that lead to loss avoidance. It also notes significant organisational CENN Caucasus Environmental NGO Network and governance co-benefits. CHF Swiss Franc Several cost-benefit analyses have researched the ratio DP Disaster preparedness between costs for risk mitigation and benefits in terms of DREF Disaster Relief Emergency Fund avoided losses. While showing positive benefit-cost ratios, it has been argued that such approaches fail to grasp the full DRC Danish Red Cross value of DRR, as they do not reflect multiple developmental DRM Disaster risk management benefits. DRR Disaster risk reduction This study aims to make amends, while also analysing the ECHO European Commission for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Office interplay between the factors that lead to loss avoidance. It confirms the underlying assumptions of many community- EMA Emergency Management Agency based DRR projects: that household and community EPR Emergency Preparedness and Response preparedness as such is a potent factor to reduce hazard- EWS Early warning system related losses. FEP Family Emergency Preparedness Country context GDP Gross Domestic Product Located in the southern Caucasus and home to 3.7 million people, Georgia has achieved considerable economic and GEL Georgian Lari development progress since it re-emerged as an inde- GRCS Georgia Red Cross Society pendent nation after the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union. Yet, much of this progress has still to reach many rural HDI Human Development Index parts of the country, where most make a living based on ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross small-scale agriculture. IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies As a mountainous country located on a major fault line, NGO Non-governmental organisation Georgia is exposed to geophysical and hydro-meteoro- OCHA (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs logical hazards. While earthquakes pose the greatest risk to lives and livelihoods, other hazards are much more ODI Overseas Development Institute frequent - mudflows, landslides and floods in particular. PPP Purchasing power parity Taken together, these hazards incurred 72.3% of recorded economic hazard losses between 1995 and 2010. Over the RC/RC Red Cross/Red Crescent same period, overall recorded losses amounted to more UNDP United Nations Development Programme than USD 1.8 billion - equivalent to 1.9% of its GDP over this timeframe, or USD 499 per citizen. Without proactive USD United States Dollar action, the impending effects of climate change are VCA Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment expected to make matters worse, leading to even greater hazard-related damages and losses. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk reduction in Georgia | ii shows that the promotion of household preparedness pays Evolution of disaster risk management off. The combination of initial school-based combination Georgia Red Cross Society emerged from the Georgian and family emergency preparedness (FEP) training is branch of the Soviet National Society after the country’s particularly effective - 95% of households exposed to both independence