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The Missouri/Souris River Floods of May – August 2011

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The Missouri/Souris River Floods of May – August 2011 Service Assessment The Missouri/Souris River Floods of May – August 2011 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Kansas City, Missouri and Salt Lake City, Utah Cover Photographs: Damage to Interstate Highway 680 near Council Bluffs, Iowa. The river crested in nearby Omaha, Nebraska at 36.29 feet on July 2, 2011, which was around 2 feet above the level shown on the photo dated August 16, 2011. (Used with permission ©2011 Iowa Department of Transportation) ii Service Assessment The Missouri/Souris River Floods of May – August 2011 May 2012 National Weather Service Central Region National Weather Service Western Region Lynn P. Maximuk Vickie L. Nadolski Regional Director Regional Director iii Preface During the winter and spring of 2010-2011, record to near-record setting snow fell across a large portion of the northern United States Rocky Mountains and eastward into the Northern Plains states. A cool spring held the snowpack in place later than usual, and a fairly rapid melt off of the snow eventually coincided with record-setting rains in May and early June over Montana and western North Dakota. This untimely combination of events caused record river levels and extensive flooding in the Missouri and Souris River basins from June through August. Extensive damage occurred to numerous cities, including Minot, North Dakota, which incurred flood damage to around one-third of its homes. States up and down the Missouri basin – from Montana to Missouri – were also impacted by this flood event. Due to the magnitude and impact of this event, and its temporal and spatial extent, a bi- regional Service Assessment Team was formed to examine the effectiveness of services provided during this event. Included in this is the decision support services provided to key decision makers and the public, with special attention given to National Weather Service (NWS) coordination of information with other federal, state, and local entities. The recommendations from this assessment, when implemented, will lead to improvements in the quality of NWS products and procedures to enhance decision-making processes associated with flood events. The ultimate goal of this report is to further the NWS mission of protecting lives and property and enhancing the national economy. May 2012 iv Table of Contents Page Preface ................................................................................................................................................. iv List of Figures ..................................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................... viii Service Assessment Team.................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. ix Executive Summary ...............................................................................................................................x Service Assessment Report 1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 National Weather Service (NWS) Mission ..................................................................1 1.2 Purpose of Assessment Report.....................................................................................1 1.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................2 1.4 Use of Terminology in Report .....................................................................................2 2. Geographical and Climatological Perspective of the Missouri and Souris River Basins ....3 3. Event Overview from a Climatological and Historical Perspective ....................................6 4. Summary of Event Operations ...........................................................................................19 4.1 Internal NWS Operations ............................................................................................19 4.2 Interagency Operations ...............................................................................................20 4.3 EOC Operations ..........................................................................................................20 4.4 Media Collaboration/Public Information ....................................................................21 4.5 Communication/Collaboration Tools..........................................................................21 5. Components of the River Forecast Process .......................................................................22 5.1 Hydrometeorological Observations and Quality Control ..........................................22 5.1.1 Precipitation .....................................................................................................22 5.1.2 Temperature .....................................................................................................23 5.1.3 River Stage and Stage-Flow Relationships ......................................................23 5.1.4 Snow Water Equivalent ...................................................................................25 5.2 Meteorological Forecasts for Hydrologic Models .....................................................26 5.2.1 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) .....................................................26 5.2.2 Temperature Forecasts .....................................................................................27 5.3 Hydrologic Modeling/Analysis ..................................................................................28 5.3.1 Forcings – Areal Analysis (MAP/FMAP, MAT/FMAT) ................................28 5.3.2 Model State Review/Adjustments....................................................................28 5.3.3 Other Hydrologic Modeling Issues ..................................................................29 5.3.3.1 Calibration...........................................................................................29 5.3.3.2 Reservoir Operations ..........................................................................30 5.3.3.3 Levee Failures .....................................................................................31 5.4 River Forecast Information Suite ...............................................................................32 5.4.1 Deterministic Forecasts (Official, Contingency) .............................................32 5.4.2 Short-Term Ensemble Forecasts ......................................................................33 5.4.3 Long-Term Ensemble (Exceedance Probability) Forecasts .............................34 5.4.4 Volumetric Forecasts .......................................................................................36 v 5.4.5 Streamflow Forecast Accuracy ........................................................................37 5.4.6 Streamflow Forecast Service Requirements ....................................................37 5.5 Collaboration of Forecasts and Other Information ....................................................38 5.5.1 Internal Collaboration ......................................................................................39 5.5.1.1 WFO/RFC Collaboration ....................................................................39 5.5.1.2 WFO/RFC Collaboration with NOHRSC ...........................................40 5.5.1.3 WFO/RFC Collaboration with HPC ...................................................41 5.5.2 Interagency Collaboration (with USACE, USGS, USBR, and others)............42 5.5.3 Collaboration Methods.....................................................................................46 5.6 Communicating River Forecast Information .............................................................47 5.6.1 Flood Warnings ................................................................................................47 5.6.2 RiverPro ...........................................................................................................48 5.6.3 AHPS and the NWS Web ................................................................................48 5.7 Quality Control, Monitoring and Updating of River Forecasts ..................................51 6. Weather and Climate Outlooks (Long-Lead Preparedness) ..............................................52 7. Decision Support Service ...................................................................................................53 7.1 Value and Effectiveness of Decision Support Service ..............................................54 7.2 On-Site vs. Off-Site Decision Support Service..........................................................55 7.3 Requirements for Effective On-Site Decision Support Service .................................56 7.4 Overhead/Cost of Decision Support Services ............................................................58 7.5 Regional Operations Center (ROC) Contributions to Decision Support Services ....60 7.6 Public Affairs Strategies for Decision Support Service .............................................60 8. Use and Effectiveness of Social Media .............................................................................61
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