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41 III Real Estate Sobiecki. Wymianapdf.Pdf Editors Jacek Łaszek Krzysztof Olszewski Roman Sobiecki WARSAW 2021 Reviewers Mirosław Bojańczyk Leszek Pawłowicz Editor Kamila Grzesiak © Copyright by SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw 2021 All rights reserved. Any copying, reprinting or distribution of a part or the whole of this publication without the prior permission of the publisher is forbidden. First Edition ISBN 978-83-8030-442-0 SGH Publishing House 162 Niepodległości Ave., 02-554 Warsaw, Poland www.wydawnictwo.sgh.waw.pl e-mail: [email protected] Cover design and production Ad Depositum DTP DM Quadro Print and binding QUICK-DRUK s.c. e-mail: [email protected] Order 41/III/21 Table of Contents Introduction 11 OLD PROBLEMS AND NEW I CHALLENGES IN HOUSING Piotr Kasprzak I.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Real Estate 19 Introduction. Machines and automation are changing the job market 19 1. The emergence of the post-industrial society 23 2. The self-reinforcing platformization of the economy and the big data shift 27 3. Ambiguous urbanization and agglomeration 30 Conclusions 33 References 37 Stefan Kofner I.2 Outlines of a Communitarian Housing and Urban Development Policy 39 Introduction 39 1. Market failure, merit and communitarian goods 41 2. Place of residence and social living environment 50 3. Community and urban development 53 4. Community and housing tenure 54 Conclusions 67 References 68 MEASURING REAL II ESTATE PRICES Jacek Łaszek, Krzysztof Olszewski, Joanna Waszczuk, Justyna Brzezicka II.1 A Critical Approach to the Analysis of House Price Cycles 75 Introduction 75 1. Literature review on housing cycles and their measures 77 2. Tools to analyze the price cycles – the HP and CF filters 79 3. Empirical analysis of house prices in Ireland and Spain 85 4. Analysis of the house price cycle in Poland and Warsaw 90 Conclusions 92 References 92 María Jesús Bárcena, Cristina González, Patricia Menéndez, Fernando Tusell II.2 Housing Price Indexes for Small Areas Smoothing in Time and Space 95 Introduction 95 1. A semi-parametric model with local trends 96 2. Related work 99 3. An example of application 99 Conclusions 105 References 106 Jacek Łaszek, Joanna Waszczuk II.3 Urban Rent and Building Intensity – Warsaw Case Study 109 Introduction 109 1. Land rent theory – literature review 111 2. Land rent, land value and building intensity 114 3. Urban intensity – the history of planning regulations in Poland 115 4. Empirical analysis – Warsaw case study 119 Conclusions 129 References 130 Firano Zakaria, Filali A. Fatine II.4 Predicting a Real Estate Price Index: Combining the Hedonic Approach with a Stochastic Process 133 Introduction 133 1. Literature review 136 2. Data and methodology 140 3. Regression results 145 Conclusions 153 Annexes 155 References 158 FUNCTIONING OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET III AND THE FINANCIAL SECTOR Maciej Ryczkowski III.1 What Came First: Bank Credit or House Prices? Time-Frequency Analysis of the Co-Movements and Lead-Lag Patterns for Poland for the 2010–2019 Time Period 165 Introduction 165 1. Literature review 167 2. Data 168 3. Methodology 169 3. Results and policy recommendations 170 Conclusions 172 References 173 Michael Voigtländer, Florian Schuster III.2 European Office Markets, User Costs and Speculative Bubbles 175 Introduction 175 1. Data and methodology 176 2. Developments in the European office market 179 3. User costs and prime rents in the European office market 182 Conclusions 186 References 187 Irfan Ahmed, Zulqarnain Haider III.3 The Structures of Real Estate and Financial Sectors with Induced Income Circular Flow – an Intercontinental Study 189 Introduction 189 2. Data and method 191 3. Dispersion analysis 195 4. Results of dispersion analysis 195 Conclusions 199 References 200 Appendix 201 Volker Arhelger, Chong Dae Kim III.4 Evaluation and Analysis of the Value of German Real Estate Following the Financial Crisis of 2007 205 Introduction 205 1. Multiple linear regression and rating factors 206 2. Solving the equation for the characteristics 208 3. Calculation of rating factors in a group of characteristics 211 4. Calculating rating factors 215 5. Evaluation of rating factors and interest rates 218 Conclusions 224 References 225 Jakub Rybacki III.5 ECB Policy Consistency: Loss of Independence and the Real Estate Bubble? 227 Introduction 227 1. Literature review 228 2. ECB Experiences with Unconventional Monetary Policy 229 3. Monetary rule, shadow and natural rates in European economies 231 4. Methodology and UBS real estate bubble index construction 233 5. Estimation Results 234 Conclusions 236 References 238 George Matysiak, Jacek Łaszek, Krzysztof Olszewski, Robert Leszczyński III.6 New Housing Construction in Poland and Regional Differences in Its Determinants 243 Introduction 243 1. Literature review of the supply side in the housing market 246 2. Polish housing market 247 3. Housing supply analysis using the DiPasquale-Wheaton (1992) model 249 4. Empirical analysis of construction starts 251 Conclusions 256 References 257 Appendix 258 SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL IV ISSUES OF THE SECTOR Jacek Łaszek, Hanna Augustyniak, Krzysztof Olszewski IV.1 The Development of the Rental Market in Poland 263 Introduction 263 1. Development of the housing market in Poland since the transformation 266 2. Overview of the current housing program, which focuses on rental housing 271 Conclusions 273 References 273 Agnieszka Głusińska, Katarzyna Przybylska IV.2 Social Rental Agency in Warsaw – a Program Increasing Access to Affordable Housing Run by Habitat for Humanity Poland 275 Introduction 275 1. Housing situation in Poland – general overview 276 2. Social rental agency model as a solution to a problematic housing situation in Poland 279 3. Initiating SRA in Poland 280 4. Way forward – should the model be upscaled? 284 Conclusions 288 References 289 Jean-Pierre Schaefer IV.3 Financial Forecast 2017–2057 for the French Social Housing Sector, Hopes and Uncertainties 293 Introduction 293 1. Retrospective financial analysis of social housing stock 2012–2017 294 2. Financial forecast 2017–2057 295 Conclusions 297 References 298 Jörg J. Dötsch IV.4 Housing Wealth in Hungary: From Subsidized Stability to Inherited Tensions? 299 Introduction 299 1. The basic problem: Old age and liquidity 301 2. Homeownership in Hungary – a snapshot 302 3. Inherited tensions 307 Conclusions 313 References 313 Introduction Real estate, and especially land are probably the basic and oldest assets and consumer goods at the same time. Their importance and development in the past took place along with demographic development and advances in communication technology, which enabled the expansion and civilization of new areas. Their significance meant that they became a symbol of prestige and power and their tool, as well as an indicator of wealth. At the same time, next to land, building, industrial and infrastructural real estate also gradually gained in importance. The rapid development of owner occupied type residential properties in the 20th century along with the necessary financial system was associated with their extensive promotion by the state, as it provided social peace and a strong motivation to work efficiently. The contemporary development of real estate, especially residential and commercial, in developed countries is more associated with the development of a post- industrial society, which is based mostly on the development of services, including those provided by real estate. This is associated with accelerating the development of large agglomerations in which globalization processes have triggered the strongest synergies. While service, office or industrial real estate is becoming the subject of technical progress and, as in the case of skyscrapers, more and more sophisticated technologies, the dominant, in terms of value, residential real estate is produced very traditionally. Despite this, the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st are a period of unprecedented growth in economic and social significance of real estate, in both the positive and negative sense of the word. The modern building real estate sector (residential and commercial real estate) has a high economic burden and, as a consequence, problems with its functioning are spreading to the entire economy. The value of the real estate stock accounts to about 50% of national wealth and 2–3 times of GDP, which is the sum of the society’s annual income. The services produced by real estate are a dozen or so percent of GDP, while the capital expenditure on development and maintenance of the stock is another several percent. The microeconomic significance of real estate is equally important. Housing expenses, depending on what we consider in them, can reach up to 40% of household budgets. Because residential real estate transactions are based on bank 12 Introduction loans, their servicing takes usually 20 or even 30 or more percent of household budgets, and loan portfolios can exceed 50% of GDP. Consequently, the real estate sector has a strong influence on the financial sector. At the end of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century, this relationship deepened, leading to the real estate or housing crises. This phenomenon is favored by the susceptibility of the real estate market to speculation and cyclical fluctuations and the myopia of economic actors, including regulators. An additional factor is the difficulty of obtaining reliable information about this market, including basic price indices. However, significant progress has been made in
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