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Recent Trends in US Services Trade: 2016 Annual Report United States International Trade Commission Recent Trends in U.S. Services Trade: 2016 Annual Report 2016 Publication Number: 4643 Investigation Number: 332-345 United States International Trade Commission Commissioners Irving A. Williamson, Chairman David S. Johanson, Vice Chairman Dean A. Pinkert Meredith M. Broadbent F. Scott Kieff Rhonda K. Schmidtlein Catherine DeFilippo Director, Office of Operations Jonathan Coleman Director, Office of Industries Address all communications to Secretary to the Commission United States International Trade Commission Washington, DC 20436 Recent Trends in U.S. Services Trade: 2016 Annual Report October 2016 Publication Number: 4643 Investigation Number: 332-345 This report was prepared principally by: Project Leader George Serletis [email protected] Deputy Project Leader Art Chambers [email protected] Principal Authors Chapter 1 Art Chambers [email protected] Cynthia Payne [email protected] Chapter 2 Art Chambers [email protected] George Serletis [email protected] Chapter 3 Logan Cobb [email protected] Chapter 4 Isaac Wohl [email protected] Chapter 5 Isaac Wohl [email protected] Chapter 6 Art Chambers [email protected] Sarah Oliver [email protected] Content Reviewers Heidi Colby-Oizumi and Ravinder Ubee Office of Analysis and Research Services Peg Hausman Judy Edelhoff Jeremy Wise Administrative Support Johnita Glover Monica Sanders Under the direction of Martha Lawless, Chief Services Division Office of Industries Preface This report is the 20th in a series of annual reports on recent trends in U.S. services trade that the U.S. International Trade Commission (Commission) has published. The Commission also publishes an annual companion report on U.S. trade in goods, Shifts in U.S. Merchandise Trade. These recurring reports are the products of an investigation instituted by the Commission in 1993 under section 332(b) of the Tariff Act of 1930.1 The information in this report reflects the knowledge, industry contacts, and analytic skills the Commission uses in providing expert analyses of service industries in its statutory investigations and in apprising its customers of global industry trends, regional developments, and competitiveness issues. In addition to the Recent Trends series, major recent Commission publications offer significant services content. These include Trade and Investment Polices in India, 2014–2015; Overview of Cuban Imports of Goods and Services and Effects of U.S. Restrictions; Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Likely Impact on the U.S. Economy and on Specific Industry Sectors; and Economic Impact of Trade Agreements Implemented under Trade Authorities Procedures, 2016 Report. Moreover, within the past year Commission staff have published several short studies, known as Executive Briefings on Trade that focus on the services sector.2 These include “The Undersea Cable Boom in Sub-Saharan Africa“ (June 2015); “Mobile Money in Kenya“ (June 2015); “World Bank Indicators Suggest that Sub-Saharan African Countries Are Open to Services Trade” (July 2015); “Factors Contributing to the Rapid Growth of Mauritius’ Services Economy” (July 2015); “Trends in U.S. Health Travel Services Trade” (August 2015); “Transport Corridors Have Improved Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa, but Issues Remain” (October 2015); “Sub-Saharan African Travel Services Trade” (October 2015); “South Africa Is a Leading Producer and Supplier of Services in Africa” (October 2015); and “Factors Affecting Growth in Ghana’s Services Economy” (October 2015). 1 On August 27, 1993, acting on its own motion under section 332(b) of the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 U.S.C. 1332(b)), the USITC instituted investigation no. 332-345, Annual Reports on U.S. Trade Shifts in Selected Industries. On December 20, 1994, the Commission on its own motion expanded the scope of this report to include more detailed coverage of service industries. Under the expanded scope, the Commission publishes two annual reports, Shifts in U.S. Merchandise Trade and Recent Trends in U.S. Services Trade. The USITC’s current report format provides a systematic means of examining and assessing major trade developments with leading U.S. trading partners, in the services, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors. 2 The Commission’s Executive Briefings on Trade are published at http://www.usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/executive_briefings.htm. These briefings are designed to inform the Commission and the public of current domestic and global activities that affect U.S. trade, investment, and competitiveness. They reflect the opinions and research of individual authors and are not the views of the Commission or any of its individual Commissioners. U.S. International Trade Commission | 1 2 | www.usitc.gov Recent Trends in U.S. Services Trade: 2016 Annual Report Abstract Recent Trends in U.S. Services Trade: 2016 Annual Report focuses on U.S. exports and imports of financial services, including banking, insurance, and securities services. In 2015, the United States exported $119.6 billion in financial services and imported $72.9 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $46.7 billion. By comparison, the total U.S. services trade surplus was $263.5 billion, a decrease of $2.5 billion from the previous year. U.S. financial services contributed $1.2 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, or 9 percent of total U.S. private sector GDP. Financial services employed over 6.4 million full-time equivalent employees in 2015, representing almost 6 percent of U.S. total private sector employment. Despite slow wage growth in financial services in recent years, workers on average earned $99,672 in 2015, nearly twice the average wage for the private sector as a whole. Financial services are facing significant challenges and disruptions from digital technologies and in navigating the post-recessionary financial landscape of increased regulation and low interest rates. U.S. financial services firms have adapted by incorporating new financial technologies into their operations, but also face rising cybersecurity risks. In addition, the growth of the Chinese financial system has increased competition for U.S. banks while at the same time creating an attractive market for U.S. securities firms. Furthermore, climate change has emerged as both a challenge and an opportunity for U.S. insurers. Overall, U.S. and global financial services firms’ business models will continue to evolve in response to a variety of emerging market conditions. U.S. International Trade Commission | 3 4 | www.usitc.gov Table of Contents Preface ............................................................................................................... 1 Abstract .............................................................................................................. 3 Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................ 11 Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 13 Chapter 1 Introduction ...................................................................................... 23 Data and Organization .............................................................................................................. 23 The U.S. Services Sector ............................................................................................................ 24 Global Services Trade ................................................................................................................ 25 Cross-border Trade, 2014 ......................................................................................................... 29 Cross-border Trade, 2015 ......................................................................................................... 33 Affiliate Transactions, 2013 ...................................................................................................... 34 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 36 Chapter 2 Financial Services .............................................................................. 47 Overview ................................................................................................................................... 47 Digital Technologies Are Transforming Financial Services ....................................................... 48 U.S. Trade in Financial Services................................................................................................. 51 GDP, Employment, Labor Productivity, and Salaries ................................................................ 55 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 59 Chapter 3 Banking Services ............................................................................... 63 Summary ................................................................................................................................... 63 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 64 Market Conditions .................................................................................................................... 64 E-Banking Allows Banks to More Effectively Reach Customers ........................................... 68 Emerging
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