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The Economy of Iceland 2 0 0 E 8 C O N O M Y O F I C E L A N D 2 0 1 0 Contents 5 Introduction 7 1 Recent economic and financial developments Box: The IMF programme 11 13 2 Country and people 17 3 Structure of the economy Boxes: Sectoral limitations on foreign direct investment 19 The ITQ system 21 29 4 The financial system Boxes: The financial crisis in Iceland 32 Resolution committees and winding-up boards 34 Capital controls 38 The offshore foreign exchange market 40 43 5 Public sector Boxes: The fiscal impact of the financial crisis 47 Icesave 56 59 6 Monetary and financial stability policies 65 7 Foreign debt position 71 8 Government, corporate, and household balance sheets 77 9 Appendix Published by: The Central Bank of Iceland, Kalkofnsvegur 1, 150 Reykjavík, Iceland Tel: (+354) 569 9600, fax: (+354) 569 9605 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.sedlabanki.is Editorial Board and staff: Rannveig Sigurdardóttir, chairman Gerdur Ísberg Jónas Thórdarson Ragnheidur Jónsdóttir Regína Bjarnadóttir Helga Gudmundsdóttir 6 October 2010 Printing: Ísafoldarprentsmiðja Economy of Iceland is also published on the Central Bank of Iceland website. ISSN 1024-6680 Material may be reproduced from Economy of Iceland, but an acknowledgement of source is kindly requested. In Economy of Iceland, monetary figures are generally presented in euros; however, in certain instances, amounts are expressed in US dol- lars or Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The amount in Icelandic krónur is included in parentheses, as most figures are originally in krónur. Stocks at the end of the period are calculated using the period-end exchange rate, whereas flows are calculated using the average exchange rate for the period. Icelandic letters: ð/Ð (pronounced like th in English this) þ/Þ (pronounced like th in English think) Symbols: * Preliminary or estimated data. 0 Less than half of the unit used. - Nil. ... Not available. Not applicable. Republic of Iceland People Population 317,630 (1 January 2010) Capital Reykjavík, population 118,427 (1 December 2009) Language Icelandic; belongs to the Nordic group of Germanic languages Main religion Evangelical Lutheran (79.2%) Life expectancy Females: 83 years, Males: 79 years Governmental system Government Constitutional republic Suffrage Universal, over 18 years of age; proportional representation Legislature Althingi with 63 members Election term Four years, last election 25 April 2009 Economy Monetary unit Króna (plural: krónur); currency code: ISK Gross domestic product 8.7 billion euros (1,500 billion krónur, 11.70 billion US dollars) in 2009 International trade Exports of goods and services 53% and imports of goods and services 43% of GDP in 2009 Per capita GDP 30 thousand euros in 2009 (4.7 million krónur, 35.1 thousand US dollars in terms of PPP) Land Geographic size 103,000 km2 (39,768 sq.miles) Highest point 2,110 m (6,923 ft) Exclusive economic zone 200 nautical miles (758,000 km2 / 292,680 sq.miles) Climate Cool temperate oceanic; highly changeable, influenced by the warm Gulf Stream and Arctic currents Republic of Iceland credit ratings Foreign currency Domestic currency Affirmed Long-term Short-term Long-term Short-term Outlook Moody's July 2010 Baa3 P-3 Baa3 P-3 Negative Standard & Poor's March 2010 BBB- A-3 BBB A-3 Negative Fitch January 2010 BB+ B BBB+ Negative R&I Rating of Japan January 2010 BBB- Negative Central Bank of Iceland publications in English Annual Report Monetary Bulletin Financial Stability Economy of Iceland Economic Affairs Central Bank of Iceland Working Papers These publications are available on the Central Bank website. Also available on the website are Central Bank statis- tics (updated weekly) and Economic Indicators, a monthly snapshot of the Icelandic economy in charts and tables. Useful websites Central Bank of Iceland www.sedlabanki.is Parliament of Iceland (Althingi) www.althingi.is Government of Iceland www.government.is Statistics Iceland www.statice.is OMX Nordic Exchange in Iceland www.nasdaqomx.com Government Debt Management www.bonds.is Trade Council of Iceland www.icetrade.is National Association of Pension Funds www.ll.is Invest in Iceland Agency www.invest.is Financial Supervisory Authority www.fme.is The Official Gateway to Iceland www.iceland.is Tokyo 8900 km Copenhagen 2122 km New York 4208 km London 1884 km Introduction Economy of Iceland has been published by the Central Bank of Iceland since 1987. It is mainly intended for an international readership. This includes international institutions that deal with Icelandic economic matters on a regular basis, rating agencies, financial institutions, for- eign investors, embassies and, more generally, everyone who is inter- ested in the Icelandic economy. We also hope that Icelandic readers will find this survey useful. It is published annually. This publication focuses on the structure of the Icelandic econo- my. It is intended to serve as background material for understanding the evolution of the economy, but it does not provide a detailed ac- count of recent developments. A more up-to-date analysis of recent developments is provided in the Central Bank’s Monetary Bulletin and Financial Stability reports. The Bank’s Annual Report also gives an overview of economic developments each year. The outline of this booklet is as follows: Chapter 1 provides a short summary of recent economic and financial developments. Chap- ter 2 presents basic facts about Icelandic geography, population and society. Chapter 3 deals with the structure of the economy. It discusses size and income levels, the composition of GDP, foreign trade, main economic sectors, the labour market, and the Icelandic pension sys- tem. Chapter 4 provides an account of the financial system and dis- cusses the various challenges facing the financial system following the financial crisis. Chapter 5 surveys the public sector, including division of tasks, expenditure structure, and the tax system. It also describes the challenges faced by the Government following the collapse of the banking system, the fiscal consolidation plan, and developments in sovereign credit ratings. Chapter 6 describes the frameworks for monetary policy and financial stability. It explains the objective of the monetary policy, its main instruments, the role of the Monetary Policy Committee. It also elaborates on financial stability policy and the Cen- tral Bank’s role in promoting an efficient and safe financial system. Chapter 7 presents Iceland’s external debt position. It elaborates on the accumulation of debt in the years preceding the financial crisis and the increase in foreign direct investment. Chapter 8 describes Govern- ment, corporate and household balance sheets. It discusses the pre- crisis build-up of household and corporate debt and the position of the Government, households and businesses following the financial crisis. A number of tables are provided in an appendix. We are constantly making efforts to improve this publication. Hence we would be grateful for any comments and suggestions that might increase the usefulness of this booklet. If you feel that important information is missing and should be added, or if you see other scope for improving this publication, please e-mail your suggestions to: [email protected]. 6 E C O N O M Y O F I C E L A N D 2 0 0 8 RECENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 1 Recent economic and financial developments This chapter focuses on economic and financial developments in Iceland over the past decade. It describes the economic upswing and expansion of the banking system and the ensuing financial crisis and recession. Policy responses to the crisis and recent economic developments are also described. The common and the unique character of the Icelandic saga Economic and financial developments in Iceland during the last decade Chart 1.1 reflect a combination of two separate but interrelated stories. On the International financial market liquidity and the 1 one hand, there is Iceland’s boom-bust cycle and its difficulties with króna exchange rate macroeconomic management in a small, open, and financially inte- Liquidity index Index, January 2005 = 100 2 110 grated economy. This is a well-known story that has been played out 1 100 in Iceland and other countries several times in the past. On the other 0 90 hand, there is the story of the rise and fall of three cross-border banks -1 80 operated on the basis of European Union legislation (the European -2 70 passport), which is more unique than the first. -3 60 -4 50 -5 40 The boom-bust cycle 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 While growth was initially spurred by investments in the aluminium Financial market liquidity (left) and power sectors starting in 2003, amounting to the equivalent of Effective exchange rate (right) 1/3 of that year’s GDP, it became increasingly imbalanced. The origin 1. The liquidity index shows the number of standard deviations from the mean (exponential moving average) from a simple average of nine liquidity of the growing imbalances can be traced back to structural changes in measures, normalised on 1999-2004. Sources: Bank of England, Central Bank of Iceland. the domestic mortgage market in 2004, with new legislation allowing a large Government-owned mortgage lender to offer higher loan-to- value ratios. This triggered a strong response from the newly privatised Chart 1.2 commercial banks, resulting in increased competition through ever- International financial market liquidity and Icelandic asset prices1 lower mortgage rates and significantly easier access to credit. Liquidity index Index, January 2005 = 100 A key element behind the overheating of the domestic economy 2 210 was a domestic credit boom and asset price bubble driven by capital 1 180 inflows. This was accompanied by a substantial appreciation of the 0 150 króna. The imbalances were further exacerbated by Government de- -1 120 cisions, including tax cuts and repeated spending overruns.
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