Advanced Utilization of Tsunami Damage Estimation Method Considering Diversity of Earthquakes : Beyond the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake
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九州大学学術情報リポジトリ Kyushu University Institutional Repository Advanced Utilization of Tsunami Damage Estimation Method Considering Diversity of Earthquakes : Beyond The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake 大角, 恒雄 https://doi.org/10.15017/4060145 出版情報：九州大学, 2019, 博士（工学）, 課程博士 バージョン： 権利関係： Doctoral Dissertation Advanced Utilization of Tsunami Damage Estimation Method Considering Diversity of Earthquakes - Beyond The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake - January, 2020 Graduate School of Engineering, Kyusyu University Tsuneo OHSUMI DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING KYUSHU UNIVERSITY Fukuoka, Japan CERTIFICATE The undersigned hereby certify that they have read and recommended to the Graduate School of Engineering for the acceptance of this thesis entitled, "Advanced Utilization of Tsunami Damage Estimation Method Considering Diversity of Earthquakes - Beyond The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake -" by Tsuneo Ohsumi in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering. Dated: January, 2020 Thesis Supervisor: Prof. Hemanta Hazarika, Dr. Eng. Examining Committee: Prof. Noriaki Hashimoto, Dr. Eng. Prof. Taiji Matsuda, Dr. Eng. Contents Overview 1 Chapter1: Damage related to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake in the South-central Coastal Area of Iwate Prefecture 5 1. Motivation 5 2. Introduction 6 3. Field investigation for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake 7 3.1 Surveyed area 7 3.2 Characteristics of earthquake ground motion in surveyed area 8 3.3 Tsunami propagation analysis in Surveyed area 13 4. Damage in the South-central Coastal Area of Iwate Prefecture 16 4.1 Touni-Chou (Koshirahama and Hongo district) 16 4.2 Yoshihama 22 4.3 Ryori (Okirai) 26 4.4 Rikuzentakata City 28 5. Tsunami Evacuation of children in Unosumai District, Kamaishi City 32 5.1 Summary of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake in Unosumai District 32 5.2 Summary of Tsunami Evacuation of Children in Unosumai District 34 5.2.1 Behaviors just after the earthquake occurrence 34 5.2.2 Evacuation to the first temporary evacuation site 35 5.2.3 Evacuation to the second temporary evacuation site 35 5.2.4 Evacuation to the third temporary evacuation site 35 5.3 Tsunami evacuation simulation 35 5.3.1 Setting the initial conditions 36 5.3.2 Setting the parameters 36 i 5.3.3 Results 40 6. Discussion and Conclusion 42 6.1 Field investigation and numerical investigations 42 6.2 Tsunami Evacuation 43 6.2.1 RES every second and cumulative RES 43 6.2.2 Effects of the students vs. other effects 44 6.2.3 Evacuation time 45 Chapter 2: Beyond the Tohoku Earthquake 49 1. Motivation 49 2. Comprehensive tsunami hazard assessment for Japan 50 3. What is Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment? 51 4．An Approach to Tsunami Hazard Assessment along the Northeastern Coastal Area in Japan 54 5. Trial of the hazard evaluation of maximum tsunami inundation flow depth 57 5.1 Probabilistic tsunami inundation flow depth map 58 5.2 Tsunami propagation analysis method 60 5.3 Results of the maximum tsunami inundation flow depth 61 6. A Study on the Utilization of the Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in Japan 63 6.1 Areas surveyed 64 6.2 Survey coverage 65 6.3 Tsunami hazard inventory survey results for municipalities 67 6.4 Current status of tsunami hazard map development 69 6.5 Proposal type hearing for policy formulation on the utilization of the tsunami hazard evaluation 81 ii 7. Conclusion 87 8. Adopted Recommendations 88 Chapter 3: The Comprehensive Analysis and Evaluation of Offshore Fault Informatics 95 1. Motivation 95 2. Back ground 96 3. Fault Model Database 98 3.1 The fault modelling for the Sea of Japan 99 3.2 The small islands located southeast of the main islands of Japan 103 4. Validity of the Fault Model 105 4.1 The 1940 Shakotan-Oki Earthquake 105 4.1.1 Methodology 107 4.1.2 Fault Model Setting 107 4.1.3 Validity of the Fault Model 107 4.1.4 Comparison with Previous Studies 108 4.1.5 Calculation of Tsunami Propagation Analysis 109 4.1.6 Results 111 4.1.7 Discussion 114 4.1.8 Conclusions 117 4.2 The 1983 Nihonkai–Chubu earthquake 119 4.2.1 Back ground 119 4.2.2 Methodology 120 4.2.3 Fault traces 120 4.2.4 Calculation conditions of the tsunami propagation analysis 125 4.2.5 Validity of the fault model 125 iii 4.2.6 Comparison with Previous Studies 136 4.2.7 Conclusions 140 Chapter 4: Development of a Real-Time Damage Estimation System for Embankment Using Earthquake Early Warning Information 145 1. Motivation 145 2. Introduction 146 3. System Component 147 3.1 Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) 147 3.2 Ground Amplification ratio 149 3.3 Realtime Ground-Motion Monitoring System (Kyoshin Monitor) 149 3.4 Seismic Intensity Prediction Technique 151 3.5 Estimation Method of Embankment Settlement 151 3.6 Digital Japan Portal Web Site Systems 151 3.7 Real-Time Damage Estimation Systems 152 3.8 Information output function 153 4. Conclusion 156 Chapter 5: Investigation of the effects of submarine landslide duration on tsunamis -Related to the 1771 Yaeyama/Meiwa earthquake with tsunami propagation analysis- 159 1. Motivation 159 2. Introduction 160 3. Aseismic tsunamis 162 3.1 Classification of tsunami sources 162 3.2 Water level fluctuation associated with volcanic activity 163 3.3 Water level fluctuation caused by mass movements such as landslides 163 iv 3.4 Water level fluctuation due to falling meteorites 163 4. Classification of submarine landslides 164 5. Tsunami boulders within and around historical tsunami trace points 165 5.1 Ishigaki Island 165 5.2 Miyako Island 183 6. Seabed topographic data 195 6.1 Island shelf points 195 6.2 Analysis section 197 6.3 Submarine landslide points 198 6.4 External force from tsunami propagation analysis 198 6.4.1 Tsunami source model 199 6.4.2 Tsunami propagation analysis 201 6.4.3 Waveform of water level fluctuation amount 202 6.5 Seabed topographic data 203 6.5.1 Crustal structural data based 203 6.5.2 Soil modulus 203 6.5.3 Adhesive strength test 204 6.6 Application of submarine landslide duration using the Newmark method 206 6.6.1 Newmark sliding block method 206 6.6.2 Two-dimensional dynamic interaction analysis code: Super-FLUSH/2D 207 6.7 Analysis of tsunami propagation by submarine landslides 210 6.8 Discussion 216 v Chapter 6: Seismicity in Mediterranean Sea and Evaluation for the Tsunami for the AD365 Crete Earthquake 223 1. Motivation 223 2. Back ground 224 3. Crustal movement 226 4. Trace of Upheaval 227 5. Estimating Earthquake Ground Motion 230 5.1 Setting parameters 230 5.2 Estimating the AD 365 earthquake ground motion waveforms 231 6. Estimation of Tsunami Propagation 232 6.1 Setting parameters 232 6.2 Methodology 232 6.3 Results 234 6.4 Comparison with results from previous studies 236 7. Summary and Conclusions 236 Chapter 7: Final Remarks 239 Acknowledgements 242 vi List of Figures Chapter 1: Damage related to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake in the South-central Coastal Area of Iwate Prefecture Fig. 3-1 Map of surveyed areas (GSI Web Map used） 7 Fig. 3-2 Rupture process: Several kinds of rupture processes of the main shock have been proposed in previous studies. 10 Fig. 3-3 The dense recordings of the K-NET strong ground motion networks (NIED) 11 Fig. 3-4 Comparison of the K-NET spectrum (NS) of the north and south direction inside and outside the surveyed areas. 11 Fig. 3-5 The acceleration observation waveform and the Fourier spectrum (NS) of each phase of K-NET: KAMAISHI (IWT007) 12 Fig. 3-6 The acceleration observation waveform and the Fourier spectrum (NS) of each phase of K-NET: OFUNATO (IWT 008) 12 Fig. 3-7 The acceleration observation waveform and the Fourier spectrum (NS) of each phase of K-NET: TONO (IWT 013) 12 Fig. 3-8 Mw 9.2 fault model 14 Fig. 3-9 Snapshots of tsunami propagation 15 Fig. 4-1 Tsunami inundation in the Touni-Chou surveyed area 17 Fig. 4-2 Before and after the disaster at Koshirahama port, Touni-Chou in Kamaishi City 17 Fig. 4-3 Calvert-type coastal levee. 19 Fig. 4-4 GPS (VRS method RTK-GPS) 19 Fig. 4-5 Tsunami run-up height from the coastal levee. 19 Fig. 4-6 Koshirahama port bulletin plate. 19 Fig. 4-7 Touni Sakura tunnel 19 Fig. 4-8 Houses above the inundation area in Hongo village survived intact, while everything below was destroyed by the tsunami. 20 Fig. 4-9 Monument to the Meiji Sanriku tsunami in 1896. The Monument is located in the tsunami inundation height of Meiji Sanriku tsunami. 20 Fig. 4-10 Housings moved uphill after the Meiji Sanriku tsunami in 1896 and the Showa Sanriku tsunami in 1933 20 Fig. 4-11 The difference in house damage to the housings that were moved uphill in the Koshirahama area and those that were not in the Hongo district was significant 21 Fig. 4-12 Damage in the Yoshihama area（Arrow shows tsunami direction） 23 Fig. 4-13 Tsunami inundation in the Yoshihama surveyed area. 23 Fig. 4-14 Houses above the inundation area in Yoshihama village survived intact, while everything below was destroyed by the tsunami. 24 Fig. 4-15 Monument to the Showa Sanriku tsunami in 1933. 24 Fig. 4-16 Housings moved uphill after the Meiji Sanriku tsunami in 1896 and the Showa Sanriku tsunami in 1933 24 Fig. 4-17 "Miracle Yoshihana" and inscription was made as a new monument.