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(2013): Threat Scenarios. Results of Interviews and Weak D.4.1 Threat scenarios (Results of Interviews and Weak Signal Scanning as well as first results of Focus Group Workshops for the preparation of Threat Scenarios) Deliverable submitted in April 2013 (M16) in fulfilment of the requirements of the FP7 project, ETTIS – European security trends and threats in society The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 285593. PO Box 9229 T: +47 22 54 ETTIS Coordinator: Grønland 77 00 www.ettis- Peace Research NO-0134 Oslo, F: +47 22 54 project.eu Institute Oslo (PRIO) Norway 77 01 1 Project Acronym ETTIS Project full title European security trends and threats in society Website www. ettisproject.eu; www.ettis-project.eu Grant Agreement # 285593 Funding Scheme FP7-SEC-2011-1 (Collaborative Project) Deliverable: D4.1 Title: Threat scenarios Due date: 30 November 2012 Actual submission date: 16 April 2013 Lead contractor for this Fraunhofer INT deliverable: Sonja Grigoleit Contact: [email protected] Dissemination Level: PU Authors: Sonja Grigoleit Ewa Dönitz Joachim Klerx Beatrix Wepner 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................... 7 2 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 11 3 INPUT I: INTERVIEWS WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS ........................................ 15 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 15 3.2 Results .......................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.1 Nuclear material ....................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2 Cyber infrastructure.................................................................................................. 25 3.2.3 Environmental issues................................................................................................ 31 4 INPUT II: WEAK SIGNAL MINING ........................................................................... 40 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 40 4.1.1 Objectives ................................................................................................................. 40 4.1.2 Approach .................................................................................................................. 40 4.1.3 Search strategy for society threats ............................................................................ 42 4.2 Results of scanning for future threats ....................................................................... 46 4.2.1 In detail results for the subject “cyber threats” ........................................................ 48 4.2.2 In detail results for the subject “nuclear threats” ..................................................... 52 4.2.3 In detail results for the subject “environmental threats” .......................................... 57 4.3 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 60 5 SETTING THE FOCUS WITHIN THE DOMAINS ................................................... 62 5.1 Nuclear ......................................................................................................................... 62 5.2 Cyber infrastructure ................................................................................................... 63 5.3 Environment ................................................................................................................ 66 6 INPUT III: FOCUS GROUP WORKSHOPS ............................................................... 69 6.1 Stocktaking of the key factors .................................................................................... 70 6.1.1 Factors for the Context Scenarios ............................................................................ 71 6.1.2 Factors for Cyber Infrastructure ............................................................................... 72 6.1.3 Nuclear Waste .......................................................................................................... 73 6.1.4 Environment ............................................................................................................. 74 7 OUTLOOK: APPROACH TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONTEXT AND THREAT SCENARIOS ......................................................................................................... 75 8 ANNEX ............................................................................................................................. 76 8.1 Interview Guide ........................................................................................................... 76 8.2 Introductory Letter to the Interviewees ................................................................... 84 8.3 Weak Signal scanning ................................................................................................. 86 8.3.1 Annex 1: Google Trends results for “crisis” ............................................................ 86 8.3.2 Annex 2: Google Trends results for “disaster” ........................................................ 87 8.3.3 Annex 3: Google Trends results for “security” ........................................................ 88 8.3.4 Annex 5: Google Trends results for “nuclear threats” ............................................. 89 8.3.5 Annex 6: Google Trends results for “environmental threats” .................................. 90 3 List of Figures Figure 1 - Framework for WP4, with the inputs, minor and major interfaces per task............ 13 Figure 2 - Extract from the ETTIS “Description of Work” (DOW) ........................................ 14 Figure 3 - Domain and category of the conducted interviews. ................................................ 16 Figure 4 - Definition of societal need and solution in the ETTIS consortium. ........................ 18 Figure 5 - CBRN cycle showing stages, intervention strategies and tools. ............................. 25 Figure 6 - System architecture of TIA agent v0.1. ................................................................... 41 Figure 7 - Amount of relative searches for the term “threat” and synonyms. .......................... 44 Figure 8 - Quantity of searches, with the term “threat”. .......................................................... 45 Figure 9 - Geographic distribution of searches containing the term “threat”. ......................... 45 Figure 10 - Network structure of the TIA results (symbolic)................................................... 47 Figure 11 - Results from topic identification. .......................................................................... 48 Figure 12 - Quantity of searches, with the term “cyber threats”. ............................................. 49 Figure 13 - Geographic distribution of searches for “cyber threats”. ...................................... 49 Figure 14 - Quantity of searches, with the term “internet security”. ....................................... 50 Figure 15 - Geographic distribution of searches for “internet security”. ................................. 50 Figure 16 - Quantity of searches, with the term “black hat” hacker. ....................................... 51 Figure 17 - Quantity of searches, with the term “nuclear threats”. .......................................... 53 Figure 18 - Geographic distribution of searches for “nuclear threats”..................................... 53 Figure 19 - Quantity of searches, with the term “nuclear bomb”............................................. 54 Figure 20 - Geographic distribution of searches for “nuclear bomb”. ..................................... 54 Figure 21 - Quantity of searches, with the term “Iran nuclear”. .............................................. 55 Figure 22 - Geographic distribution of searches for “Iran nuclear”. ........................................ 55 Figure 23 - Quantity of searches, with the term “nuclear”. ...................................................... 56 Figure 24 - Quantity of searches, with the term “environmental threats”. ............................... 57 Figure 25 - Geographic distribution of searches for “environmental threats”. ........................ 58 Figure 26 - Quantity of searches, with the term “extreme weather events”. ............................ 58 Figure 27 - Geographic distribution of searches for “extreme weather events”. ..................... 59 Figure 28 - Result of the desk research for exploring the domain cyber infrastructure (related to cyber attack). ........................................................................................................................ 65 Figure 29 - Discussing the key factors on context and domain level in focus groups. ............ 69 Figure 30 - 3-step-process for scenario development. ............................................................. 75 Figure 31 - Quantity of searches, with the term “crisis”. ......................................................... 86 Figure 32 - Geographic distribution of searches for “crisis”.................................................... 86 Figure 33 - Rising topics, similar to “crisis”. ..........................................................................
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