Table of Contents...... 1 1. The Political Situation...... 2 2. State and Development of the Party System in Bulgaria...... 5 2.1. Processes within the Governing Coalition...... 5 2.1.1. Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)...... 5 2.1.2. NMSP (National Movement for Stability and Progress)...... 6 2.1.3. Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)...... 7 2.2 Processes within the Right-wing Political Environment...... 8 2.2.1. Union of Democratic Forces (UDF)...... 8 2.2.2. Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB)...... 9 2.2.3. Bulgarian New Democracy (BND)...... 10 2.2.4. Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (The GERB Party)...... 10 2.2.5. The Ataka Party...... 11 3. PUBLIC OPINION ...... 12 4. Trends and Prospects ...... 13 2/2008

1. The Political Situation eral Vanyo Tanov, when he was summoned to a hearing before the Parliamentary Committee for The political situation over the past quarter was Internal Order and Security. In his conversation dominated by the massive corruption row, which with the members of this committee Tanov dis- shook the country and made public the ties exist- closed the fact that the Minister of Interior, Rou- ing between some high ranking civil servants from men Petkov, had held unauthorized appointments the Ministry of Interior with organized crime. This with representatives of organized crime. This fact row was widely covered by the mass media and emerged during a surveillance operation carried reverberated not only in this country but in the out by the task force for combating organized international public opinion as well, enhancing crime in connection with two men belonging to Bulgaria’s unfavorable foreign political image. the criminal circles. All this brought to the fore the need for The Minister of Interior, Roumen Petkov, urgent reforms, which can help find adequate confirmed that he took part in such an organized mechanisms aimed at solving the massive prob- encounter, but added that it was part of a special lems this country faces in its endeavors to combat task, which his Ministry had to accomplish, and organized crime and corruption. Such urgency is that an officer from the secret services was pres- also prompted by the fact that the row has taken ent at this pre-arranged encounter. The special- place in a period of strict monitoring by the Eu- ists in this area, however, categorically claim that ropean Commission concerning the measures the the Minister is not entitled to deal with matters country has to implement for the solution of the of such nature and - according to the legislation adverse consequences, which the highly sensitive - such engagements can be arranged only by rep- subject matter of organized crime and corruption resentatives of the professional leadership of the has made imperative both in the country and the Ministry of Interior. EU on the whole. Despite these disclosures, Prime Minis- The row at the Ministry of Interior burst ter Stanishev defended Roumen Petkov and even out when the DSB MP, Reserve General Atanas gave him the assignment to carry out a thorough Atanassov, who was Chief of Intelligence at the inspection of the functioning of the Ministry of In- time of Ivan Kostov’s government (1997 – 2001), terior. President Parvanov also gave his support to submitted to the Prosecutor’s Office a compact the Minister of Interior by expressing the opinion disk with material recorded by means of special that it was Roumen Petkov who could carry out intelligence devices, which he claims to have been the needed reforms at the Ministry of Interior. This sent to him by an anonymous person. The record- statement brought about a tempestuous reaction ings make it clear that high-ranking officials of the on the part of the opposition, which declared that Chief Directorate for Combating Organized Crime this was inadmissible and that Petkov should hand protect representatives of such organized crime. in his resignation right away. As a result, the Deputy Chief of the Directorate Petkov did not resign: he started instead for Combating Organized Crime was arrested, be- extensive inspections at the Ministry he headed, cause his telephone conversations implicate him and in response the opposition tabled a yet anoth- in demanding and receiving bribes. Following an er non-confidence vote to the Cabinet on account inspection made by the Prosecutor’s Office, the of the activity of the Ministry of Interior and its former Chief Secretary of the Ministry of Interior, failure to combat organized crime and corruption. General Illia Illiev, was also arrested for illegitimate Unlike the previous non-confidence votes, howev- use of special intelligence devices. er, this one was truly dramatic and showed the ex- The row reached its climax with the rev- istence of serious differences within the governing elations made by the former Director of the Chief tri-partite coalition. This became particularly obvi- Directorate for Combating Organized Crime, Gen- ous during the debates and the voting procedure 2/2008 itself, when the NMSP MPs abstained from voting In the course of the row, the name of an and the Cabinet survived only thanks to the votes undercover agent of the secret services was re- of the BSP and MRF. vealed and this is the reason why an investigation The parliamentary faction of NMSP ex- is being currently held as to who has made this un- pressed particularly strong criticism with respect authorized disclosure. The misgivings are that the to the Minister of Interior, Roumen Petkov. In the guilty person was the Minister of Interior, Roumen opinion of the NMSP MPs, he already had to have Petkov himself, and that he had done so before handed in his resignation. In this way the NMSP handing in his resignation. The Prosecutor’s Office stance was a clear signal to Prime Minister Stan- demanded that the ex-Minister be stripped of his ishev indicating the urgent need for replacing his parliamentary immunity so that an investigation Minister of the Interior. For his part, Stanishev ex- to this effect could properly be carried out. Pet- pressed his own criticism for the behavior of his kov waived his immunity himself and said that he coalition partner, NMSP, and the MRF also has- did not commit the alleged crime he was charged tened to do the same. with. The results from the prosecutor’s investiga- The Prime Minister also said that the row re- tion are expected to be announced shortly. vealed the existence of serious problems in the func- The resignation of the Minister of Interior, tioning of and interaction between the individual Roumen Petkov, and the situation of a growing units and sectors of the Ministry of Interior, but the public negativism with respect to the government Cabinet and the governing tri-partite majority had gave sufficient reasons to Prime Minister Stanishev the political will to start reforming this system. In his to carry out personal re-shuffles in the Cabinet, opinion, the row was prompted mainly by the circles which had been long due and expected for more which aim at the political destabilization of the coun- than a couple of months. Petkov’s replacement at try, thus intending to provoke an early general elec- the post of a new Minister of Interior was Mikhail tion and facilitate GERB’s and Boiko Borissov’s ascent Mickov, Chairman of the parliamentary faction of to power and the governance of the country. Coalition for Bulgaria. Re-shuffles took place at the The right wing opposition accused the Ministry of Health, where Minister Radoslav Gai- government of close relations with organized crime darsky was replaced by the former mayor of the in Bulgaria, adding that corruption had become a town of Stara Zagora, Evgenii Zhelev; at the Min- customary practice of political behavior on the part istry of Defense, where Nickolay Tzonev replaced of the governing tri-partite coalition. This was a cat- Vesselin Bliznakov from NMSP, and at the Ministry egorical proof for the existence of a statehood crisis of Agriculture, where Valeri Tzvetanov replaced in the country. The opposition was also unanimous Nihat Kabil from the MRF. A new Deputy Prime that the only way out of this crisis was the Cabinet’s Minister was also appointed: Meglena Plugchieva, immediate stepping down from power and the former Bulgarian Ambassador to Germany, who summoning of an early general election. was put in charge for the appropriation and con- Almost 40 days after the onset of the row trol of EU funds. and a result of the extensive media, public, and The Prime Minister also announced that the political pressure, Roumen Petkov was forced to major objective facing the newly-composed govern- hand in his resignation and the political and public ment was the successful completion of the term of circles qualified this as a much belated move. Al- office of the tri-partite coalition. The priorities, which though Petkov denied to have resigned in result of the overhauled Cabinet will pursue are: combat- any pressure, claiming that this was his personal ing corruption and organized crime, reform of the decision, which he had made long time ago, so- internal security system and increased control over ciety remained with the lasting impression that the specialized units entrusted with combating or- the truth about the resignation ran contrary to ganized crime, reform of the healthcare system, and Petkov’s claims. raising the standard of living of the population. 2/2008

At the time when the changes in the per- was arrested in the town of Sandansky for partici- sonal composition of the Cabinet were put to the pating in such illegal activities. The man in ques- vote at the Bulgarian Parliament, the opposition tion admitted to having committed the offence voiced its categorical assessment that the ministe- and summary court proceedings were held. The rial replacements were hardly capable of altering election outcome in the town of Sandansky is now anything in the functioning of the government and subject to a court appeal and the election returns that the only outcome out of the situation was the will most probably be declared null and void. The resignation of the entire Cabinet and holding an by-elections in the town of Kazanluk also gave rise early general election. to doubts for possible vote-buying and this elec- Apart from the ministerial replacements, tion outcome will also be subject to court-appeal the number of deputy ministers in the government proceedings. was decreased: out of the previous 72 deputy min- This exceedingly undemocratic practice isters only 59 remained. In the overall re-shuffle of made the political elite in the country launch an the government several regional governors were intense debate concerning the introduction of also replaced. amendments to the election legislation. Unfor- The crisis within the Ministry of Interior tunately, this debate has not truly taken place to brought about a number of dismissals in the ranks date, despite the appeals, which President Parva- of the professional leadership of this institution. nov has been making to this effect for more than a The Chief Secretary of the Ministry of Interior, Val- year now. However, this debate is likely to be gen- entin Petrov, whose name was also involved with uinely held in the next months and it will hopefully the row, was discharged, and his post was taken bring about positive results, on the basis of which by Commissioner Pavlin Dimitrov, who until then a new Election Law and other changes will be was Director of the Regional Police Directorate of elaborated and voted for, uniting the proposals for the town of Bourgas. Replacements were made in amendments tabled by the various parliamentary the professional staff of the Chief Directorate for represented parties. Combating Organized Crime, where its then lead- President Parvanov once again voiced his er, Kiril Georgiev, was demoted to Deputy Direc- stance for undertaking a number of reforms in the tor, and Peter Vladimirov was appointed Director political system of the country intended to result of the Chief Directorate, who previously headed in positive political changes. In Parvanov’s opinion, one of the departments at the same directorate. the country needs not only urgent reforms in the Apart from the personal replacements election system itself, but also amendments to within the leadership of the Ministry of Interior, the Political Parties Act, whereby a more stringent the tri-partite governing coalition launched initia- control over their funding will be introduced. tives aimed at carrying out a number of structural The rest of the political parties indicated reforms within the system of the Ministry, mainly that they will respond favorably to Parvanov’s as far as control over the special intelligence de- ideas for amendments to the system of holding vices and the wire-tapping and eavesdropping sys- elections. The BSP tabled a proposal for the intro- tems are concerned. duction of a mixed election system combining the In the middle of June, by-elections for mu- proportional system with the majority vote system, nicipal councilors were held in the towns of San- much in tune with the thesis of President Parva- dansky and Kazanluk, where vote-buying practices nov. NMSP accept the enhancement of the ma- at a large scale were observed at the end of last jority element, but in their opinion voters should year. This time the situation with the vote-buying be given the opportunity to re-order the places of practices was repeated more or less yet again, but the candidates on the party slates by means of a this time the signals for such practices were sub- preferential vote. Another proposal tabled by the ject to rapid inquiries, in result of which a person NMSP MPs concerns the vote-buying practices. 2/2008

According to them, a party which is proven have his efforts to push on the reforms he has been been buying votes, should be deleted from the pursuing in this area. Another subject to discus- register of political parties by decision of the re- sions was the possibility for implementing several spective court. energy projects in Bulgaria, in which US investors The UDF expressed the opinion that an expressed willingness to participate. amendment to the election laws alone would be in- The future development of the political sufficient. This is the reason why the parliamentary situation in the country will become increasingly faction of the party tabled a text for amendments dependent on the forthcoming general election in to the Penal Code, whereby vote-buying should the summer of next year. It is this election that will be qualified as a grave criminal offense punishable determine the processes underlying the develop- by 2 to 8 years of imprisonment and a penal fine ment of the political agenda in the country, along- amounting from BGN 50,000 to 200,000 (EUR 1 = side the dynamic turns that will be taking place BGN 1.96). This idea was given support by NMSP within the party system itself. as well. Another important point in the develop- 2. State and Development of the Party System in Bulgaria ment of the political life during the quarter under review was connected with the criticism, which 2.1. Processes within the Governing Coalition President Parvanov addressed to Prime Minister As already mentioned above, the rows which burst Sergei Stanishev. These critical remarks made it out at the Ministry of Interior affected the relation- possible for many politicians and analysts to start ships between the parties from the tri-partite gov- talking about a conflict between the two of them. erning coalition. Nevertheless, all indications at the What prompted Parvanov’s criticism was the fact time being are that the government will complete than advisors to the Prime Minister were members its full term of office and no early general election of the Boards of Directors of various companies, in will have to take place. Possible problems for the which the government has a majority stake. Stan- coalition could arise after the publication of the ishev replied that he could not accept such criti- monitoring report of the European Commission cism because the task his advisors were entrusted on Bulgaria’s progress in the combat against cor- with was to provide direct information about the ruption and organized crime, which is expected to activities of these companies, as the government be extremely critical and strongly negative. In all was bearing its own share of responsibility for likelihood, this will be a suitable occasion for the the way state-owned property was run. Despite opposition to enhance its attacks against Sergei this dialog between Prime Minister and President, Stanishev’s Cabinet. the two of them denied the existence of any conflict – either personal or institutional – between 2.1.1. Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) them. After the meeting held between Parvanov The BSP was the party, which had to bear the and Stanishev, they jointly declared that their re- strongest and most adverse effect from the row lationships were very good indeed and dispelled connected with Roumen Petkov, having in mind the speculations about the existence of any differ- as well that Petkov is the person considered ences between them. to be one of the strongest and most powerful An important event from a foreign po- figures in the party. The expectations of many litical point of view was Sergey Stanishev’s visit to experts and analysts were that the row will af- Washington in the month of June. At the meet- fect particularly adversely the confidence, which ing between the Bulgarian Prime Minister and the voters have in this party. And yet, at the time US President, George Bush expressed his support being these expectations prove to be partially for Bulgaria in the combat with corruption and wrong as far as the extent of confidence loss organized crime and congratulated Stanishev on is concerned (for greater detail see Chapter 3 2/2008

– “Public Opinion”). To top it all, at the local by- One of the initiatives, which the BSP elections for municipal councilors in the town of leadership raised during the period under re- Kazanluk, it was the BSP that got the majority of view, was for a discussion to be held among the electoral votes. coalition partners, devoted to outlining mea- Nonetheless, the row with Roumen sures capable of raising the standard of living of Petkov has enhanced the negative attitudes the population and permitting to pursue a more with respect to the BSP. Certain circles within active social policy, especially in the healthcare the party, for whom Petkov is an internal party sector. One of the proposals tabled at the dis- opponent, will most probably avail of this situ- cussion was for the health security contribution ation. The BSP MP Tatyana Doncheva used to to be raised from 6 to 8 percent at the expense, be particularly critical of the former Minister of however, of the surplus in the government bud- Interior and as early as the onset of the row get and not at the expense of increasing the she demanded Petkov’s immediate resignation. burden of social security contributions, which She even addressed critical remarks to Prime the individual citizens pay. But this proposal was Minister Stanishev for his failure to interfere met with serious criticism on the part of NMSP, more decisively in this situation and even for whose representatives announced their categor- his failure to demand his minister’s resigna- ical opposition to any such move. tion himself. Doncheva’s opinion is shared by The BSP continues to work on the draft other representatives of the party as well, who of a new party statute and a new party program, – according to insiders – will capitalize on the which are expected to be adopted at the forth- difficulties Petkov is experiencing at present in coming party congress. It has already been an- order to bring down his influence within the nounced that the BSP will run the next general BSP to a bare minimum. election in the well known coalition format with In actual fact, the level of political and other left-wing parties, which people have been party confidence, which Petkov used to enjoy, familiar with for several years now under the name is currently at a very low point, indeed. After of “Coalition for Bulgaria”. The BSP leadership an- he resigned from the ministerial post, he re- nounced that the new program will be socially- turned to his MP seat and now is a member of oriented and its priority areas will be: education, the Parliamentary Committee on Internal Order healthcare, growing public welfare and incomes and Security. Petkov, who thus far has almost of the population. always headed the BSP pre-election headquar- ters and has taken care of the party finances, 2.1.2. NMSP (National Movement for Stability may not be entrusted to handle this line of ac- and Progress) tivities at the next general election, although The most significant event for NMSP, which merits the leader of the party, Sergei Stanishev, said special attention, is connected with the stance taken that he would be relying on Petkov in the fu- by the party during the raging row at the Ministry of ture, too. Interior. The fact that NMSP categorically declared to The personal re-shuffles in the Cabinet stand for Roumen Petkov’s resignation and abstained brought about predictable shifts within the party during the non-confidence vote against the govern- leadership and the parliamentary faction of the ment, of which they are an inseparable part and par- party. Thus for instance, as soon as the Chair- cel, indicates the willingness of the party to attain a man of the Coalition for Bulgaria parliamentary higher degree of political emancipation with a view faction, Mikhail Mickov, was appointed Minister to the forthcoming general election next year. of the Interior, his leadership post in the parlia- At the time when the Cabinet re-shuffles mentary faction was taken by the BSP spokes- were carried out, NMSP categorically defended person, Anguel Naidenov. the quota principle of allocating ministerial posts, 2/2008 as laid down in the coalition agreement among Thus far there have been no clear indica- the parties. In a statement of his, Prime Minis- tions about the way in which NMSP will run the ter Stanishev declared that he did not intend to forthcoming general election next year. Opinion take into account the quota principle of allocat- polls currently show that should the party run the ing government posts, and in response NMSP general election on its own, it would hardly be like- announced that should that happen, this would ly to overcome the required four percent electoral indicate that the coalition agreement had been threshold (for greater detail see Chapter 3 – “Public breached and that would actually mean the end Opinion”). Therefore the question of finding an ap- of the coalition itself. propriate coalition formula is still open for the party. This unwavering stance on the part of This should be a formula giving NMSP the opportu- NMSP brought about a compromise and as a con- nity to get returned to parliament once again. The sequence only one minister from the NMSP quota winning options are few, one of them being the was replaced – the Minister of Defense, Vesse- possibility for setting up a joint Liberal Alliance with lin Bliznakov. And although during the past few the MRF, and this idea has informally been consid- months there were rumors about the desire of the ered for several years now. It was discussed before NMSP party leader, Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, the last general election as well, but it failed mainly to replace not only Bliznakov, but two other min- because of the unwillingness to pursue this option isters as well – Nickolay Vassilev, Minister of State on the part of the then NMSII. Things are different Administration and Administrative Reform, and now and this time it is the stance and willingness on Daniel Vulchev, Minister of Education and Science, the part of the MRF that will count most. they both retained their posts. The conduct of NMSP in the direction 2.1.3. Movement for Rights and of exacerbating the relationships with their co- Freedoms (MRF) alition partners are a clear indication that till the Over the quarter under review, the MRF continued end of the government’s term of office Saxe-Co- to be one of the most strongly attacked and criti- burg-Gotha’s party will try to build and uphold a cized parties in the governing tri-partite coalition. political image of its own. This is the reason why Most numerous were the attacks launched by DSB NMSP is likely to stay its stance within the coalition and the GERB Party. DSB addressed the Prosecutor’s more staunchly by mainly opposing the proposals office, the new National Security Agency, and the raised by the BSP in the sector of social policy, thus Parliamentary Committee for Combat against Cor- emphasizing the liberal nature of the party. The ruption with the request to establish the source of increase of the health security contribution level, the funds, with which the massive and luxurious resi- which was already mentioned before, will be one dence of the MRF leader, Ahmed Dogan, has been of the proposals that is likely to become subject to acquired in one of the elite neighborhoods of So- a most heated debate. fia. Ivan Kostov’s party also addressed the National Another BSP proposal likely to be heated- Revenue Agency with the same request, namely for ly debated among the tri-partite coalition partners an inspection to be held on the amount of incomes namely because of the NMSP stance concerns the Dogan has declared on his tax return over the years. amendments to the Election Law. NMSP is skeptical For his part the Sofia City Mayor, Boiko Bo- with respect to the introduction of a mixed elec- rissov, also filed a complaint with the Prosecutor’s Of- tion system and the establishment of “first past fice concerning the case with Dogan’s residence, be- the post” or majority vote constituencies. NMSP cause – according to the municipal authorities – it was representatives have already shared their opinion built illegally, i.e. without a building permit. Should the that the best system according to their party is the competent authorities find the building to be illegally introduction of an option for preferential vote on constructed, Borissov threatened that he would issue the part of the electorate. an order for the residence to be pulled down. 2/2008

Ahmed Dogan replied to these attacks too. For its part, the BSP has declared many a time by saying that they were absolutely groundless. that the MRF is a serious partner and that the co- He said he was not afraid of any inspections be- operation with them yields serious results in the cause everything he was doing was legitimate. In governance of the country. his opinion the attacks against him were actually attacks against his party because it had become a 2.2. Processes within the Opposition leading factor in Bulgarian politics. For a yet an- The right-wing opposition parties manifested in- other time Dogan warned that such allegations tense political activity at the time of the row at the and attacks aimed at creating adverse attitudes Ministry of Interior, but this brought about political against the MRF, which – according to him – was a dividends much below the level of their expecta- dangerous and destructive act. tions. Although the right-wing parliamentary op- Accusations to the MRF was launched by position joined forces and acted together during DSB MP, General Atanas Atanassov, who claimed the non-confidence vote against the government, that the police had investigated the MRF for con- the relationships among them remain unchanged nections of its representatives with organized and the differences have not disappeared, which crime gangs, but this investigation was put on hampers the unification in the right-wing political hold by order of the ex Minister of Interior, Rou- environment. men Petkov. For the time being these accusations remain mere allegations, but the National Security 2.2.1. Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) Agency is investigating this case. Over the past three months, the UDF leadership One of the Cabinet replacements was con- tabled a demand for the launch of an impeach- nected with one of the key MRF figures – the Min- ment procedure against President Georgi Parva- ister of Agriculture and Food Supplies, Nihat Kabil. nov because of the fact that for more than a year The reason for his replacement lies in the fact that he had failed to convene the National Security the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Supplies was Consultative Council. According to the UDF lead- one of the institutions subject to the most severe er, Plamen Yurukov, this was a grave infringement criticism on account of European funds appropria- of the Constitution and this substantiated the tion. Despite Kabil’s replacement, the MRF leader grounds for the impeachment of the President. In Ahmed Dogan maintained that Kabil was one of the opinion of a number of leading constitutional the ministers who carried out a serious reform in law experts, however, the UDF demand was based the agrarian sector, which made it possible for the on no legal grounds. country to meet the criteria of the European Union This UDF initiative was prompted by the in this particular sphere. fact that the opposition addressed numerous ap- Regardless of his replacement, Kabil con- peals to the President to convene the National tinues to be one of the most influential figures in Security Consultative Council on account of the the MRF and he is the man on whom Dogan will crisis in the country connected with the rows at continue to rely in the future as well. the Ministry of Interior, but Parvanov failed to re- MRF’s conduct during the crisis at the spond. The motive of the Head of State was that Ministry of Interior showed that the party is willing such a move was unnecessary and would by no to do its utmost so that the government of the tri- means contribute to overcoming the crisis. partite could complete its full term of office. The The UDF initiative for the impeachment of fact that the MRF lent its strong support to the the President did not muster the needed parlia- BSP during the row, which affected one of its key mentary support and thus the party had to give up representatives, is a clear signal about the inten- its demand and withdraw the tabled proposal. tions of Dogan’s party to continue its cooperation The UDF continued to pursue its initia- with the BSP after the general election next year, tive of bringing former leading figures of the party 2/2008 back to its ranks, the objective being to enhance conference only. The party leadership said that the in this way the process of unification of the right- purpose and intent of this measure was to open wing in Bulgaria. Among those who made it back the party to its members and to strengthen the in- to the fold is the former Deputy Prime Minister in ternal party democracy, which would enhance the Ivan Kostov’s Cabinet, Evgenii Bakardjiev, and his overall confidence in the party. However, the way party called Bulgarian Democratic Union (“Radi- in which these amendments have been planned cals”), the members of which will shortly reunite would rather centralize the party than democra- with the UDF ranks. tize it, because they will increase the power of the The tendency for re-establishing the party leader exceedingly much. strong UDF figures of the past, which proved to be a major policy line of the new UDF leader, Pla- 2.2.2. Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB) men Yurukov, can be seen in the possibility for Over the past quarter, DSB has remained in the col- the former party leader and former Minister of lective public memory with several anti-corruption Foreign Affairs in Ivan Kostov’s Cabinet, Nadezh- initiatives, which were in the focus of public atten- da Mikhailova, to be elected new Deputy Speaker tion. DSB was the party which played the leading of the National Assembly. She is expected to fill part in the raging political row. As already men- in the parliamentary seat vacated by the UDF MP tioned, it was DSB MP, General Atanas Atanass- and ex Prime Minister, Philip Dimitrov, who an- ov, who revealed the recordings, which brought nounced that before the end of this parliamenta- about the resignation of the Minister of Interior, ry session he was going to leave Parliament, as he Roumen Petkov, and the investigation started by was giving up politics and his political pursuits. In the Prosecutor’s Office with respect to the people this way Nadezhda Mikhailova, who opposed the involved with the row. previous UDF leadership headed by Peter Stoya- The past quarter of the year did not see nov, will regain her former positions of a leading any change in the attitude of DSB in connection figure in the party. with the unification of the right-wing political en- For several months now the UDF leader- vironment. In a number of statements, the DSB ship has been working hard on the elaboration of leader, Ivan Kostov, reproached the UDF because a new party statute. Some of the proposals tabled he could see circles within the UDF, which were in by the working group elaborating the draft stat- close relationships with the MRF. In Kostov’s opin- ute, which is headed by the leader Plamen Yuru- ion, this was the only reason that made any com- kov, have been met with disapproval by a number mon action between DSB and the UDF problem- of party representatives who belong to the inter- atic. Kostov appealed to the UDF leader, Plamen mediate echelon of the party leadership. The idea, Yurukov, to express his clear stance on the issue which provokes the strongest opposition, is for the and decisively differentiate his party from the MRF, party leader to make the nominations for mem- thus enabling the future common actions of the bers of the National Executive Council that will be two right-wing parties. voted for by the National Council instead of by the The attitude of DSB as regards the GERB National Party Conference, as the procedure was Party remains unchanged at this stage as well. practiced thus far. Opponents to this amendment Despite the letter sent by the Chairman of the are the representatives of the largest local organi- GERB Party, Tzvetan Tzvetanov, to DSB, in which zations in the cities of Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, and he expresses the willingness of his party for com- Veliko Tarnovo. mon actions in the name of the success, which the The rest of the amendments to the party united right-wing could score at the next general statute include the possibility for the party leader to election, DSB has retained its previous position in be elected at primaries by the entire membership of relation to Boiko Borissov’s party. For a yet another the UDF, unlike the current practice – by the party time Kostov declared the categorical stance of his 10 2/2008

party that the condition sine-qua-non, on which on Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, Nickolay Svinarov, was DSB could cooperate with Boiko Borissov, was for elected leader of the new party, and his deputies GERB to unequivocally differentiate itself from became MPs Lydia Shuleva, Borislav Velikov, and President Parvanov. According to Ivan Kostov, as Christo Savchev. long as GERB have qualified the governing tri- Among the major priorities of the party partite coalition as their major political opponent, declared at its Constituent Congress are: establish- they must do the same with respect to the Presi- ment of a broad right-wing coalition with the par- dent, who is the actual creator of this tri-partite ticipation of BND, as well as the lasting consolida- governing coalition. tion of the party as one of the leading formations The prospects for improving relations be- in the right-wing political environment. The party tween DSB and the GERB Party seem little likely at leadership said that they would cooperate only with this stage in time at least, and the principal rea- opposition forces from the right-wing political en- son why are the personal attitudes and differences vironment, and that the parties from the tri-partite between the two leaders, Ivan Kostov and Boiko governing coalition would be their ideological op- Borissov. ponents. They also added that one of their medium- Irrespective of the initiatives undertaken range political objectives would be the new party’s by DSB with respect to combating corruption membership in the European People’s Party. and organized crime and aimed at improving the The supreme executive body of the BND opposition image of the party, in reality this has will be called Council of the Regions. By right its not brought about any positive impact on the members will be: the party leadership, the MPs of rating of the party, which cannot boast of any the party’s parliamentary faction, the leaders of tangible improvement. Current opinion polls in- the local organizations, and the mayors elected dicate that at this stage DSB seems unlikely to on the BND party slate. The rest of the Council make it to the next Parliament after the general of Regions members will be elected by the party election due to take place in the summer of next Congress. year (for more detail see Chapter 3 – “Public The party Statute passed by the Constitu- Opinion”). The reasons why are mainly due to ent Assembly says that officers and collaborators the negative attitudes to the party leader, Ivan of the former secret services of the former com- Kostov, which the electorate has amassed in the munist regime shall not be elected to leadership past. In short, it is the party leader who is one posts in the party. of the major factors underlying the situation in which DSB currently is. 2.2.4. Citizens for European Development of Kostov’s unwillingness to engage in a dia- Bulgaria (The GERB Party) log and his predominantly confrontational style of During the last several months, the unof- conduct hamper not only the processes of unifica- ficial leader of the GERB Party, Boiko Borissov, was tion in the right-wing political environment, but forced to openly declare his stance on various is- also create prerequisites for lack of public confi- sues in order to prove for a yet another time that dence in the right-wing at large. he was truly a right-wing politician. Thus for instance, on the occasion of establishing the GERB’s 2.2.3. Bulgarian New Democracy (BND) Party Council of the Elders in the month of May, In the middle of May, the group of MPs who split Borissov declared that he had no intention of be- up from NMSP, became the founders of a new po- coming a prime minister in a government set up litical party carrying the name of the parliamen- with the participation of the MRF. He expressed tary faction they had set up in Parliament last fall, the same stance with respect to a possible coali- namely: Bulgarian New Democracy (BND). The tion with the BSP and even put his signature under ex Minister of Defense in the Cabinet of Sime- this statement in public in order to testify to the 2/2008 11 fact that he would not go back on the declaration his willingness for dialog with the rest of the po- he had just made. This was Borissov’s indirect ad- litical forces and now, in April, the party made an mission that a possible post-general-election coali- even stronger move in the direction of changing tion between the GERB Party and the BSP or the its political course. In an interview for the Maltese MRF is highly unlikely. “Times of Malta” newspaper, the Ataka Party In the past months, the leader of the leader said that the profile of his formation was GERB Party faced other problems as well, which more of the right-centrist type and much closer are far from typical for a strong leader’s party. to the ideology of the European People’s Party. Thus for instance, the Mayor of the village of Ve- The Ataka Party has three MEPs at the European trino, Georgi Andreev, who was elected mayor on Parliament, who at the time being are indepen- the GERB Party slate, received a BSP membership dent MEPs but previously belonged to the right card. The Prime Minister and BSP leader, Sergei extremist parliamentary faction of “Identity, tradi- Stanishev, availed of the situation and personally tion, sovereignty”. In Siderov’s opinion, the Ataka handed this membership card to the mayor who Party needs assistance from the European Union had left the GERB Party. Boiko Borissov said that in order to cleanse its name. In this interview he what he was hoping for was for Andreev to re- promised to clarify before the EU member coun- sign his post immediately. He went on to explain tries what the Ataka Party actually is and only then that the Mayor of Vetrino had signed a declara- would he make attempts to file for membership in tion in accordance with which should he infringe the European People’s Party (EPP). the ethical norms and principles that made him Parallel to all this, for the first time - Vo join the GERB Party, he was bound to resign the len Siderov publicly admitted the positive traits of post he was elected to. Ataka’s major opponent – the leader of the MRF, During the last week of June, local by- Ahmed Dogan. At a conference held in April on elections were held in the town Kazanluk. For the the occasion of the third anniversary from the first time ever since its inception the GERB Party establishment of his party, Volen Siderov invited suffered a defeat at these elections and came to Dogan to a debate devoted to the future of the rank second after the BSP. A totally unknown pa- country. The Ataka Party leader declared that he triotic organization under the name of “Zashtita” did not want to wage wars any more. He also add- (i.e. “Protection”) won the same number of mu- ed that he intended to put an end to his bickering nicipal councilor seats as the GERB Party did. GERB with the media, too. representatives said that this was certainly due to At the background of this moderate tone, the vote-buying practice because – in their opinion however, the Ataka Party showed its other face as – what was indicative here was that a party no- well. After numerous postponements, at the be- body had ever heard about came to win so many ginning of May the Sofia City Court finally started votes all of a sudden. proceedings on the case for instigation to perjury against the Ataka Party leader, Volen Siderov, and 2.2.5. The Ataka Party his wife, Kapka Siderova. The Siderovs were ac- A careful look at the activity of the political Ataka cused of having instigated the former Ataka MP, Party over the last three months reveals the typi- Pavel Chernev, to give false evidence in connec- cal features of the so-called non-program parties tion with a traffic accident on the “Thracia’ motor- combined with certain extremist elements. way, which took place in April 2006. The motorcar On the one hand, the party and its leader, in which Siderov was riding then collided with the Volen Siderov, in particular continued the course motorcar driven by Yavor Dockov. Immediately pursued for some time now towards changing the after the accident the leader of the nationalists, party profile and adopting a more moderate po- Volen Siderov said that the collision was planned litical image. Several months ago Siderov showed by Roumen Petkov, who until recently was Min- 12 2/2008

ister of the Interior of the country. Passengers in 3. Public Opinion Yavor Dockov’s car were his father and grandfa- ther. At the inquiry after the accident Siderov said During the second quarter of 2008, the public that the car they were riding in was driven by attitudes were influenced to a large extent by Pavel Chernev. In the course of the investigation the price rise and the corruption rows, which Chernev first confirmed this fact but later on with- shook the country. This naturally had an impact drew his testimony and confessed that he did not on the public opinion, too, and the results of drive this car, proving that he was in another car the opinion poll surveys held by several leading miles away from accident. opinion poll agencies in the country are indica- Back in the court room, as soon as the tive to this effect. court proceeding were opened, the shouts and The National Statistical Institute reported thumping of the Ataka Party proponents were so a 15 percent inflation rate in comparison with the loud that the judge was forced to postpone the same period of the previous year, and according to hearings. The slogans shouted by the Ataka’s sup- this indicator Bulgaria ranks third after Latvia and porters were: “No to the double standards in the Estonia as countries with the highest inflation rate system of justice.” According to Siderov, the entire in the European Union. investigation and court proceedings were a trap The survey held by the MBMD Agency re- and he was simply framed in for being inconve- veals the escalation of Euro-skepticism in Bulgar- nient for the governing majority. Before the people ian society, the most likely reason for which is the who had gather outside the court he announced high inflations rate precisely. In comparison with that he could not accept a judicial system where April, the number of people who have expressed the court applies double standards and lets go un- a pessimistic outlook concerning the future de- punished traffickers, gang leaders and mobsters. velopment of the country has risen by 10 percent The Minister of Justice, Meglena Tacheva, quali- at the end of June, and the share of pessimists fied the protests and the slight clashes that fol- now stands at 54 percent. The low incomes of lowed between participants and the police as an the population at large enhance the pessimism in attempt to exert pressure on the judicial institution people’s attitudes. and the court proceedings themselves. The MBMD survey shows that it is the prob- The change in the position and behavior of lems with low incomes, high prices, and inflation Volen Siderov in the direction of a more moderate that occupy the first two places among the gravest rhetoric and political stance are due to the forthcom- concerns of Bulgarians. Corruption and poor gover- ing general election in the summer of next year. Many nance rank third in this scale of concerns. analysts consider it quite plausible that a future right- A similar trend can be observed in the sur- wing coalition could be set up, in which the GERB vey held by the National Center for the Study of Party will be the major political force but may well Public Opinion (NCSPO), where the respondents include the Ataka Party, too. Siderov is well aware of indicate that the major problem of society is the his chances and this is the reason why he will con- low standard of living and low incomes of the tinue to mellow and soften his rhetoric, acting within population. According to nearly 90 percent of the the limits of the moderate political discourse. respondents, the most important task, which the The leader of the GERB Party has expressed country must cope with, is the increase of the liv- his sympathies for the Ataka Party and some of its ing standard of the common people. political positions many times, which makes such The internal political problems of the a future coalition possible, especially having mind country have affected people’s attitudes concern- that Borissov has categorically declared that he ing Bulgaria’s membership in the European Union. would not enter any coalitions with the participa- The survey of NCSPO quoted above indicates the tion of the BSP and the MRF. following: More than 20 percent of the respon- 2/2008 13 dents think that the country has sustained a loss stands at 26.1 percent. This result indicates that on account of its EU membership. This percentage Boiko Borissov’s party has increased the support it mainly includes people in the age bracket over 60 can muster in comparison with the previous quar- and the unemployed. Another 34.2 percent of the ter. Despite the row in which its minister, Roumen respondents think that Bulgaria has neither lost Petkov, was involved, the BSP has lost merely 2 nor gained anything from its EU membership. And percent of its electoral support – unlike the situa- yet, the share of those who think that the country tion from a few months ago – and the current BSP has gained from its EU membership is sufficiently support rating stands at 17.6 percent. large – 32.5 percent – and this percentage includes Apart from the GERB Party and the BSP, mainly the youngest citizens of the country in the among the parties, which are certain to overcome age bracket from 128 to 30, and the university the mandatory 4 percent electoral threshold are: educated diploma and degree holders. the MRF, which would get 6.3 percent of the The subject matter of corruption was votes, the Ataka Party – 6 percent, and the UDF very topical over the past quarter and this was – 3.8 percent. The survey shows that NMSP and reflected in the public opinion survey held by the Ivan Kostov’s DSB will almost certainly prove to be NCSPO. The results show that the attitude of so- incapable of making it to the next parliament with ciety is one of extreme intolerance with respect their current 1.6 percent and 1.0 percent electoral to corruption and this affects and underlies the support rating respectively. high degree of lack of confidence in the political Over the period under observation, the elite and the political parties in the country. The politicians enjoying the highest public confidence results obtained indicate that only 4 percent of rating continue to be Georgi Parvanov (43 percent) the Bulgarians are inclined to believe the mes- and Boiko Borissov (41 percent). A relatively high sages sent by the political parties. As far as the confidence rating has been given to the new min- level of corruption is concerned, 37.2 percent of isters Mikhail Mickov (19.5 percent) and Meglena the respondents think that the level of corruption Plugchieva (20 percent). As for the rest of the lead- has increased following the country’s accession ing politicians, the lowest confidence rating has been to the European Union. The major reason for this given to Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha (8 percent) and situation – according to the respondents – is the to both the UDF leader, Pamen Yurukov, and the DSB opening of novel possibilities for engaging in cor- leader, Ivan Kostov, - 5.4 percent each. ruption practices, connected with the distribution of funds coming from the EU 4. Trends and Prospects The rows at the Ministry of Interior affected the rate of confidence in the police as well. Ac- 1. The political situation over the past three months cording to data obtained by NCSPO, 29.4 percent has exacerbated as a result of the serious crisis of the respondents approve the work of the police, in one of the major institutions of state, namely while 54.2 percent express their disapproval. the Ministry of Interior. It affected the top levels The political rows in the country also af- of the political and professional leadership of the fect the electoral attitudes. A survey held by the ministry, the Minister of Interior, Roumen Petkov, MNMD Agency shows that nearly 23 percent of included. The most serious accusations were con- the Bulgarians categorically say that they will nected with suspicions for connections between not go the polls, and approximately 20 percent some of the leading top-brass figures in the Min- express hesitation whether they will go to the istry of Interior with organized crime. The crisis at polls or not. this ministry provoked wide appeals for serious Over the past three months, it is the GERB reforms and the need for a “clean hands” policy, Party again for which most of the voters are go- which were raised not by the public opinion, but ing to vote and the number of these respondents also by the governing tri-partite coalition itself and 14 2/2008

the opposition. A series of resignations followed 2. The parties of the governing tri-partite coali- in result of the crisis, the resignation of the Min- tion have started to make calculations concerning ister of Interior included on the one hand, and on the general election next year increasingly more the other, the crisis brought about proposals for often and are looking for ways and means of im- radical reforms, which the new Minister of Interior, proving their image. This creates internal tensions, Mikhail Mickov, tabled in the National Assembly. both within the individual parties themselves and The crisis at the Ministry of Interior coincid- among the parties of the coalition. ed with the enhanced criticism coming from various The most dynamic processes of this na- circles within the European Union, which indicates ture have been observed within the BSP. Follow- that Bulgaria is making insufficient efforts to coming the row at the Ministry of Interior, the party bat corruption and organized crime. The critical re- leader, Sergei Stanishev, managed to eliminate in marks were combined with threats for discontinua- fact a powerful rival of his and also a possible option of financial and other EU programs. This made ponent in the party, namely the former Minister the government take measures by creating a new of the Interior, Roumen Petkov. Having in mind governmental post – that of a Deputy Prime Min- that the other power figure in the party – Roumen ister entrusted with the coordination and control Ovcharov – is also in a defensive situation, one can over the appropriation of European funds. say that because of this turn of events and in a The expected regular Monitoring Report certain sense despite the circumstances, Stanishev by the European Commission became the major has consolidated his position of a BSP leader. subject matter of the current public and political At the same time, the establishment of debate as never before, thus turning into an inte- the National Security Agency enhanced Stanishev’s gral part of the internal policy of the country. positions as Prime Minister of the country, which is The first cracks in the tri-partite governing expressed in his new self-confidence and even in coalition have now emerged. This happened when a certain friction, which appears to exist between NMSP came to differ from the BSP and the MRF him and his patron, the President. This is what with respect to the assessment of the Ministry of has probably provoked the remote exchange of Interior crisis and the deliberations about what re- words between the two, which for the first time is forms should be undertaken there. However, for a of a more brusque nature. The President accused yet another time the Cabinet managed to survive Stanishev of being insufficiently high principled in at the non-confidence vote in Parliament, despite pursuing his recruitment policy expressed in plac- the abstention of NMSP, and for the time being ing “his men” for instance in the boards of direc- there is no risk for its eventual disintegration and/ tors of state-owned companies. As observers have or an early general election any time soon. pointed out, this is no serious occasion for criti- The proposals made by the President for cism, but it has obviously been used by Parvanov changes in the political system and especially for to express his irritation on account of his dimin- amendments to the election system, the Political ishing influence over the Prime Minister. Stanishev Parties Act, etc., became an exceedingly impor- himself responded to the “blow” with composure tant subject matter for debate in the public envi- and having met the President in person, the two ronment as well. His idea is to provoke legislative of them seemed to have ironed out the existing amendments on the eve of the next general elec- differences for the public eye at least, because tion, in order to overcome the confidence crisis, these differenced had become the focus and cen- which the parties and political institutions are cur- tral topic of discussion in all the media, print and rently going through, and to create conditions for electronic alike. a higher level of commitment to the political pro- Temporarily, the BSP postponed its Con- cess on the part of the citizens of this country. gress, at which it had to adopt a new program and to reform the statute of the party, leaving this sub- 2/2008 15 ject matter to be considered at another congress BSP and the MRF. This necessitates that apart from at a later date. In the meantime, the BSP leader- GERB at least another right-wing party should ship gave partial support to the presidential ideas make it to the next Parliament as well, which will and for its part proposed certain amendments to make it possible for Borissov to set up a coalition, the Political Parties Act. Proposals were also tabled provided, of course, that such a party has returned for changes to the system, in which elections are a sufficient number of MPs of its own. held in the country. For the time being, the opinion poll sur- NMSP continues its efforts to overcome veys and sociological forecasts indicate that the its current situation of a marginal party without only other right-wing party that might have a min- any prospect for making it to the next Parliament. imum chance of making to the next Parliament is They are trying to stabilize the internal party situ- the UDF. This is the reason why the processes of ation, which worsened after the split from several unification in the right-wing political environment months ago and after some of the NMSP MPs are highly likely to accelerate, especially between left the party parliamentary faction. The former the UDF and DSB, which might run the next gen- Minister of Finance, Milen Velchev, seems to have eral election together, thus securing the desired become the leading figure in the party, second in coalition partner for the GERB Party. rank only to Simeon Sexe-Coburg-Gotha. In its at- At the same time, however, GERB failed to tempt to consolidate its new image, NMSP has put perform well at the local by-elections in the town the emphasis on outlining its differences with the of Kazanluk, which – according to experts – indi- BSP and the MRF, thus stressing upon its doubtless cates that the electoral support for the GERB Party nature of a liberal party. is getting stabilized at around 26 – 27 percent na- Although the MRF is in a stable situation tion-wide, including a certain drop of the electoral from an internal party point of view, the party support rate. What is also being observed is the finds it increasingly harder to live with the attacks growing internal differences within the party itself, launched by its political opponents. This puts the as well as clashes within a number of local party party leader, Ahmed Dogan, in an uncomfortable structures. Borissov himself gets criticized increas- political situation, which he has experienced never ingly more often for his poor performance in the before, especially after the official competent in- capacity of a Sofia City Mayor. Nevertheless, GERB stitutions demanded that he give an account for remains the strongest party in the right-wing po- the real estate and other property acquired by him litical environment and for the time being is hold- personally and his party. ing the prospect for becoming the largest party in the Bulgarian Parliament after the next general 3. The opposition parties, sometimes together but election. most often independently, are looking for appro- The other right-wing parties are in a fee- priate occasions to enhance their criticism and to ble position and are doing their best to expand undermine the unity of the tri-partite governing their electoral impact, which – for the time being coalition. The biggest opposition party – GERB, es- – they have repeatedly failed to attain. Although pecially after its accession to the European People’s DSB paints the image of a strongly critical opposi- Party, is making efforts and exerting pressure to tion party, it has been incapable of showing any expand its contacts with the two major right-wing growing impact on the Bulgarian electorate, the parties, the UDF and especially with DSB, with major obstacle in this respect being the leadership which its relationships are verging on the hostile. of Ivan Kostov, on account of whom the party has At the same time the party leader, Boiko Borissov, sustained adverse publicity. made a categorical declaration that if he were to No progress has been made by the UDF, head the next governance of the country, he would either, with its new leader, Plamen Yurukov, who is not enter any coalition, which might include the proving incapable of capturing public confidence. 16 2/2008

Yurukov himself is a person of mediocre abilities. He has been making contradictory declarations and of late has entered into a sharp conflict with a partner from the ADF parliamentary faction, namely Yane Yanev, Chairman of a populist agrarian party, who has exerted a negative impact on the positions, which the UDF has managed to attain.

4. The extremely nationalist Ataka Party has pre- served its electoral impact but the political discourse of its leader, Volen Siderov, seems definitely to be softening. It is obvious that Siderov is trying to expand the capacity and opportunities of his party. Such an opportunity would be to become GERB’s ally after the next general election. It is in the same sense that observers have interpreted Siderov’s move to seek membership in the European People’s Party, by proclaiming that the Ataka Party is situated in the center-right political environment. At the same time, Siderov himself is in a defensive situation in connection with the criminal court proceedings that are being held against him. He is charged with instigation to perjury committed more than a year and a half ago. For the time being, the forecasts indicate that the Ataka Party will make it to the next Parlia- ment, but its electoral impact remains limited at around 5 to 6 percent of the popular vote.

About the author: Prof. Dr. Georgi Karasimeonov is Head of the De- partment of Political Science at Sofia University and Director of the Institute for Political and Legal Stud- ies. From 1991 to 1998 he was President of the Bulgarian Political Science Association. He is also Editor in Chief of the Political Studies Quarterly. Contact: [email protected]