Research and Development Plan 2021–2024

OUTLOOK

Research and development plan 2021–2024

Part 1

Research and development plan / Part 1 1 2 OUTLOOK CONTENTS

4 Foreword

6 Primary challenges of the Armed Forces

11 Technology development

15 Our research

15 FFI’s goals, values and vision

16 FFI will elucidate the future for the Armed Forces

18 How FFI will help to improve operational capabilities

21 New equipment must be planned and used correctly

24 FFI as a technology incubator

30 Strategic partnerships

32 We will continue to develop our Total Defence capability

34 Organisation chart and management

Research and development plan / Part 1 3 FOREWORD

How FFI thinks and works

FFI is made up of 740 people working towards one goal – to use knowledge and technology to strengthen Norway’s defence capabilities. Outlook provides a brief outline of what we will be doing in the next four years to reach that goal.

For many people, including many in the defence sector, life be- Here in Norway, FFI is responsible for much of the R&D work hind the FFI fences at Kjeller and Horten is an unknown and al- and virtually all technological R&D in the defence sector. This ien world. What do they all really do in there? gives us a very important role in the future, both in terms of Nor- way’s efforts to strengthen international security policy collab- In the first part of Outlook, you can read about this world from the oration, and in terms of developing the national technology and FFI’s perspective. What challenges do we think that the defence industry base. sector and Total Defence will face in the coming years? What are the most important technology trends that will affect the Armed Research and development for national security Forces’ operations, and what kind of security policy and econo- FFI aims to strengthen the Norwegian Armed Forces’ operation- mic landscape will the Armed Forces have to operate in? al capability, cooperation with allies and Total Defence capability through R&D work and utilisation of developments in techno- In the final part, we will take a closer look at our research response. logy. If this is to succeed in a long-term perspective, deep insight How will FFI help to tackle these challenges? What kind of re- and understanding are required. In the short-term, the same in- search and development (R&D) is needed? This will show you what sight and understanding can be used to make the Armed Forces we will be doing to achieve our seven new performance goals. that we have the best it can be at all times.

Knowledge and technology is power FFI mainly performs applied R&D. This means that we work When we look at new knowledge or a new technology, there are closely with users to turn new knowledge and theory into real two questions that we have to answer: 1. How can this be useful new technological solutions that the Armed Forces can apply in for the Armed Forces or Total Defence? 2. How can we defend our- operations. This work tends to be based on extensive interna- selves if an enemy uses the same technology? tional cooperation, mainly with NATO and close allies. Innova- tion, trials and testing are a standard part of what we call R&D. The international security policy landscape is dominated by In this respect, our operations are not as far away from practical power shifts and superpower rivalries. Superpowers are increas- benefit and use than one might think. ingly competing to be the leaders in technologies that could give them a strategic advantage. There is a visible need to amass tech- We test and develop technology in locations where the nological knowledge and use it as a tool for geopolitical power. Armed Forces have a presence The biggest motivator behind this trend is the growth of China as FFI is the link between the Armed Forces, scientific teams and a technological superpower. the companies that manufacture equipment used by the Armed Forces. In this way, we help the Armed Forces to adopt new tech- NATO has defined eight groundbreaking technologies (Emerging nology more quickly, and we contribute to technology develop- and Disruptive Technologies – also known as EDTs). Develop- ment and value creation. Solutions that have been developed and ments in these technologies are considered to be a very impor- tested by FFI go on to become products that create new jobs in tant part of enabling NATO to maintain its technological lead. the Norwegian defence industry. The EDTs are thereby also absolutely central to FFI’s future operations, and form the basis of the R&D plan. FFI aims to strengthen partnerships between the Armed Forces

4 OUTLOOK FOREWORD

and industry in the years ahead, in order to help the Armed For- spond to challenges that are still developing and are becoming ces adopt the new technology. FFI’s new innovation centre, ICE more complex. In the future, we will be a more visible adviser in worx, will assume a key role in this work. this area, and we will play a key role in continuing to develop the Norwegian Total Defence. Norwegian niche products But how can a small research institute in a small country keep We are ready for new missions up with civil technology giants and rapid international develop- To fulfil our role as an agenda-setter for the development of the ment? FFI cannot be a world leader in every area, but we intend Armed Forces and Total Defence, we must have independence to be one in carefully selected fields of technology. If it is to be and freedom of research. For that reason, some of our income is relevant to the Armed Forces, FFI has to be sensible and efficient in the form of core funding, which gives us security in terms of in the way it prioritises resources. We will specialise in a range of long-term research and skills. subjects. At the same time, we will concentrate on tasks that may be difficult for other parties in Norway to tackle, where we can However, 80 per cent of FFI’s income does not come from regular make a real difference for the Armed Forces. We will help Norway subsidies. FFI is the only subordinate agency in the sector that is to develop technological systems that make us an attractive part- externally funded. This means that the defence sector and civil ner for our allies, which will also give us access to their techno- actors involved in the Total Defence must pay for our services logy and research communities. and skills. FFI relies on research planning and development by the defence sector and Total Defence actors, and the money they Missile development, from Terne to Penguin and now the Naval allocate for this. Strike Missile (NSM) and Joint Strike Missile (JSM) is one example of a Norwegian “niche product” in which FFI has played a key We are here for you. Use our knowledge. role for several decades. NSM and JSM were purchased by the United States and other allies because they are the best missiles produced in the West. This helped to share the burden between NATO members and improved the operational capability of the alliance.

We have to take a fresh look at national security John-Mikal Størdal As well as developing and advising on technology, our versatile Director General specialist teams of economists, political scientists and systems developers make us an important partner in the Armed Forces’ long-term planning work.

Our collective competence will also benefit society as a whole. New threats and instruments affect various sectors. Every sector of society could be the target of sabotage, crime or the use of force or pressure. In many areas, there is no longer a clear distinction between state security and societal security.

This also affects FFI’s role. Solutions and technology, such as sensor technology used by the Armed Forces must be used to From 1 July 2021 onward, John-Mikal Størdal will be Director of NATO STO’s Collaborative improve societal security and preparedness wherever possible. Support Office. Espen Skjelland has been appointed Acting Director General of FFI from Civil-military cooperation must be strengthened in order to re- 1 March 2021 until a new Director General is in place.

Research and development plan / Part 1 5 Soldiers from the Arctic Ranger Company from the Garrison of Sør-Varanger on sniper and collaboration training with F-16 fighter aircraft from the Norwegian Air Force on the Halkavar- re firing range, during the Cold Response 2020 exercise. Photo: Simon Amdal / Armed Forces

6 OUTLOOK PRIMARY CHALLENGES OF THE ARMED FORCES

Primary challenges of the Armed Forces

Our researchers have prepared a “weather forecast” for the economic and political landscape in which the Armed Forces must manoeuvre in the future. Here are the most important strategic decisions we will have to make and the problems we will have to tackle.

The global political, economic and social Ambitious regional superpowers development trends that have dominated Internationally, the dominant line of con- the security policy scene in recent years flict will be the confrontation between We must get used to a world are likely to continue and intensify in the China and the United States, in which the next four to five years. American presidential election will have of increasing instability and only a limited effect on the long-term uncertainty, in which we are Security policy challenges competition for a hegemony, particu- always living with some kind of The international order based on norms larly in Asia. An American shift towards confrontation or conflict. and agreements is under pressure, and Asia, combined with the increasing am- is largely being challenged by the super- bitions of countries like Russia and re- powers who have regarded this order as gional superpowers in Asia, Africa and Combined with unfavourable eco- an instrument of Western interests. What Latin America could lead to the estab- nomic and demographic trends, this we are seeing instead is a scene involv- lishment of spheres of interest or zones is contributing to an ever-diminishing ing more intense superpower rivalry and around the superpowers in which they European ability to influence global po- confrontation, although the risk of armed grant each other the right to interfere. litical conditions and to safeguard the conflict is considered to be small. For a small state like Norway which is close core interests of the European countries. to Russia, this is a worst-case scenario in However, this is helping to amplify a which we must be prepared to come under This trend is creating increasing chal- trend in which the nature of conflicts will significant political and military pressure lenges for Norway as a small country that change, with the use of power moving from without being able to count on immedi- relies on alliances. This increases our rel- conventional military force to irregular ate support from our allies. In extreme ative dependence on the USA at a time measures such as influence operations, circumstances, we must be prepared for when doubt has grown about the USA’s cyber-operations, economic and social and plan for heavy military operations. ability to stand by its alliance commit- destabilisation, etc. This means that it will ments, but when the Americans continue become increasingly difficult to differen- A natural response to this would be to have national strategic interests in our tiate between peace and war, between stronger European defence and security local area. At the same time, technological societal security and state security. We cooperation. Stronger European defence and economic developments are making must get used to a world of increasing in- cooperation would also help to strengthen it more and more difficult to maintain stability and uncertainty, in which we are NATO, both militarily and politically. De- complete and balanced military forces. always living with some kind of confronta- spite the establishment of the European These developments therefore bring a tion or conflict, but in which the intensity Defence Fund (EDF) and talks about a Eu- need to make a range of difficult defence can vary in line with political fluctuations. ropean defence union and European stra- policy assessments and decisions. This tendency has been reinforced by the tegic autonomy, the European countries Covid-19 pandemic, which so far seems to still do not seem to have come to sufficient • How can we develop comprehensive have revealed social vulnerabilities that agreement on the challenges to bet- national strategies to detect a more could be exploited for such purposes. ter coordinate their work on defence. unclear and complex set of threats?

Research and development plan / Part 1 7 PRIMARY CHALLENGES OF THE ARMED FORCES

• How can we achieve better multina- the long-term plan, later macro-economic that are a result of a worsening in the se- tional defence cooperation to reduce uncertainties show that the GDP target is curity policy situation in recent years. unit costs and ensure an optimum de- vulnerable to fluctuations: The Covid-19 fence capability per krone invested? pandemic has triggered a major recession There have been investments in new in Norway, with the result that we have equipment. The investment percentage • To what degree should we prioritise already reached the GDP target for 2020. in the defence budget is at a historic high. focussing on reinforcing alliances Despite this, we cannot say that Norway’s More “invisible” capacities such as spare at the expense of traditional national defence capability is any different to what parts, emergency stocks, maintenance defence capabilities, when these will it would have been at 1.6 per cent of GDP, and communication systems have re- already be inadequate if the reinforce- which is what we thought it would be at ceived less attention. These have had a di- ment work is unsuccessful? the start of the year. However, the long- rect and negative effect on preparedness term plan sets out a schedule for real eco- and endurance. • What consequences should develop- nomic increases, regardless of the size of ments in technology have on opera- GDP. It is important to follow this plan if However, since the last long-term plan, tional concepts and the Armed Forces’ we are to ensure that there is a balance be- the government has increased invest- administrative processes and systems? tween duties, structure and economy. ment in these supporting capacities, with the result that the Armed Forces has im- • Can and should we develop integrated However, there are numerous economic proved preparedness and endurance in civil-military operational concepts factors that could rock this balance. One of recent years. However, such things take a in which a broad range of conventional these is fluctuations in exchange rates. A long time, and the status in this area can- and new measures are seen in the con- major component of a steadily increasing not be expected to be satisfactory much text of counteracting the new threats? investment budget is exposure to foreign before the end of the decade. currency risk, and this helps to create un- Economic framework conditions certainty about the economic framework. A further challenge is that many of the With the previous long-term plan (Prop. Is the framework sufficient to ensure that Armed Forces’ main systems are being 151 S (2016–2017)), there was a consider- the planned volume of turnover can con- replaced, which will weaken operational able increase in investment in the Armed tinue, or is it too broad? If it is, there is a performance and availability for several Forces. Analyses show that previous long- risk that the plan will have to be modified, years to come. It is therefore important to term plans were underfunded, and that and that the modifications will be made maintain the high pressure needed to rec- economic investment was needed if the where they can, and not necessarily where tify those things that are preventing the economic gap was to be closed. one would have chosen if the costs had current Armed Forces from functioning been more predictable. optimally, while at the same time manag- Since then, the security policy landscape ing to look further ahead and planning for has worsened. Further investment is The overall balance the Armed Forces that we want to achieve needed if the Armed Forces are to be able The current long-term plan for the defence when all these new systems are in place. to attend to the same duties. The current sector points out that the main challenges long-term plan (Prop. 14 S (2020–2021)) are the inadequate preparedness, pres- The Armed Forces will always be in a state assumes that there will be a considerable ence and endurance of the Armed Forces. of renewal. We must be capable of devel- increase in the defence budgets in order to This reflects an imbalance between the oping the Armed Forces while keeping make this possible. Armed Forces’ duties, structure and fi- them operational. nances that developed since the end of the Although NATO’s two per cent target has Cold War and that have continued to the Particular challenges been the guide for the financial scale-up in present day, despite mitigation measures Bringing the Armed Forces’ operational

8 OUTLOOK PRIMARY CHALLENGES OF THE ARMED FORCES

The Armed Forces will always be in a state of renewal. We must be capable of developing the Armed Forces while keeping them operational.

capabilities to a satisfactory level involves some challenges that stand out as particularly critical:

• Long-range, highly accurate missiles are an increasing threat to the most strategic capacities of Nor- way and its Armed Forces. We must improve our ability to resist these, through both passive and active measures, such as protection, dispersal, mo- bility and strengthening the Air Force.

• The digital and electromagnetic operational environments are becoming increasingly important domains of warfare. Every day, we are vulnerable to intelligence, criminal sabotage and extortion (ransomware) in cyberspace. But in a conflict, we must be able to ex- pect cyberattacks against civil and military installations. The Armed Forces must improve its ability to resist attacks and operate in conditions where for example its own means of communication and data network have been degraded through such attacks.

• In a situation in which new technology increases the pace of operations and gives an adversary weapons that are effective at a long-range, there is a greater need for oversight and situational awareness. The Armed Forces’ surveillance and intelligence capabilities are therefore key capabilities, and must be strengthened in the future.

Gray zones and the Total Defence Concern is steadily increasing about what are known as hybrid/composite threats Air Force Artillery crew erecting antennae for NASAMS III (Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System) during the Falcon Response 2020 exercise on the Air Force Rygge base. or grey zone challenges. Methods of influ- Photo: Ingeborg Gloppen Johnsen / Armed Forces ence such as cyber operations and influ-

Research and development plan / Part 1 9 PRIMARY CHALLENGES OF THE ARMED FORCES

ence operations on social media are difficult to detect. It can be difficult to identify which actors are behind them, and what their intentions are. Such attacks can put civil functions out of action, undermine confidence in society and influence not only political decision-making processes but also a population’s attitudes and behaviour in peacetime.

To build up the ability to withstand such threats, the Armed Forces and civil sector must both become better at understanding, detecting, analysing and managing a broad set of measures in the cyber and information domains, while safeguarding privacy and freedom of speech.

Problems like these illustrate the recipro- Norwegian Cyber Defence Force’s operation centre at Jørstadmoen. Photo: Anette Ask / Armed Forces cal interdependence between the Armed Forces and civil society. The Armed For- ces support the civil authorities in sev- ume, while the Armed Forces’ manpower ahead. While the outside world has high eral areas, such as fisheries monitoring, concepts will be developed to build ro- expectations of the savings that can be counterterrorism and search and rescue. bustness and endurance into the force achieved through efficiency measures, But the Armed Forces are no less depend- structure. there is a major need within the Armed ent on civil capacities throughout the Forces to modernise and professionalise a spectrum of peace, crisis and war. Con- The Armed Forces’ ability to recruit and number of key operational areas. Modern- sequently, this means that it can be just retain personnel must also be improved. ising the sector’s ICT systems and servic- as effective for an attacker to strike civil Several important changes have been es is a critical component of success here, targets as military targets. Fuel supply, implemented in recent years in the are- similar to the importance of improving transport axes, telecommunication and as of personnel and competence that are the sector’s skills in administration and other strategic capacities are vulnerable expected have a positive effect, includ- modernisation. to long-range missiles, sabotage and cyber ing the military rank structure (OMT), operations, to name but a few. Many steps education reform and the introduction FFI has previously found that the defence have been taken to strengthen the Total of gender-neutral military service and sector has major problems in successful- Defence in recent years, but there is still further developments in initial military ly implementing complex restructuring a need to continue improving situational service. New technology and the intro- processes. This applies particularly to awareness, reduce vulnerabilities and in- duction of new equipment will change the cases in which ICT is a central element tensify civil-military cooperation. way problems are tackled and affect the and in which improving efficiency is an Armed Forces’ need for skills. The Armed objective. The Armed Forces therefore Personnel and competence Forces’ ability to change and adapt at the need not only to implement the planned One of several key prerequisites need- same rate as developments in technology modernisation competently, but also to ed by the defence sector if it is to meet will be pivotal to the success of this shift continue to identify new areas and oppor- higher operative requirements and faster in competence. tunities for modernisation. response times, is sufficient access to personnel with the relevant expertise. In the Modernisation next long-term period, there is expected The Armed Forces need to adapt their to be a gradual increase in personnel vol- support activities quickly in the years

10 OUTLOOK TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Technology development

The Armed Forces must use new technology effectively if they are to survive in the battlegrounds of the future.

Throughout history, technology has emerged that has fundamen- the future is how the Armed Forces can make faster use of new tally changed the rules of the game and the relative strengths on technology where it is relevant. the battlefield. Planes, nuclear weapons, missile technology and precision-guided weapons – all these innovations changed the Trends terms of armed conflict and created completely new operational The NATO report “Science & technology trends 2020-2040” concepts. highlights eight groundbreaking technologies, also known as EDTs (Emerging and Disruptive Technologies). An investment The question we must never stop asking ourselves is: in these technologies within the NATO alliance is considered to which new technologies could have a pivotal effect on the be absolutely essential to maintaining the technological lead. Armed Forces’ operations in the future? And this is not The eight areas are data, artificial intelligence, autonomy, space just a question of which technologies we could make use of, technology, hypersonic technology, quantum technology, bio- but what we may need to defend ourselves against. When technology and material technology. The disruptive effect is ex- will these technologies be mature enough to be used? pected to come from different combinations of these eight. (See And how can we best prepare ourselves for such developments? page 13.)

Relative strengths are changing The EDTs are absolutely key to FFI’s future activities. We must The international technological balance of power also af- show how the Armed Forces’ operations are affected by the tech- fects the Armed Forces. We are seeing two main trends nology trends so that we can take this into account when the here: The technological military lead of the USA and West Armed Forces are planning for the future and procuring equip- is shrinking, and civil technology development is becoming ment. increasingly important. The USA is still the biggest in terms of defence-related research and development. But the tech- Enormous operational opportunities nological gap between the USA and countries like China Technological trends can never be regarded in isolation. A key and Russia may be said to have narrowed in the last few dec- term is convergence – how can technologies be used together and ades, partly because of the enormous economic growth in reinforce one another? A classic example of convergence is the China and an extensive defence modernisation programme smartphone, where telephone, computer and camera were amal- in Russia. gamated and changed the way we communicate, buy goods and understand the world. It is now the civil sector that spends the most on technological development, in contrast to the Cold War period. Areas such as In a military context, sensor technology combined with autono- biotechnology, autonomy and artificial intelligence are being mous swarms, unmanned systems and artificial intelligence driven forward by the fact that they have a great commercial could converge. The technology could potentially give us a far potential. Naturally, many of the new technologies also have a better understanding of a situation in real time. The party that military application. Developments affect the threat landscape has command of this and can translate it into good decisions and because the potentially harmful technology is also available to effective measures will have an enormous advantage over an ad- non-state actors and individuals. versary who does not.

The speed of civil developments in technology also challenges Efficiency improvement the lengthy military procurement processes. A key question for Technology can also lead to improvements in efficiency in the

Research and development plan / Part 1 11 TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

Technology is an important driver of development in the Armed Forces and the rest of the defence sector. Operations must be adapted to the groundbreaking technologies that are available, rather than the other way around.

Armed Forces. For example, an experiment is currently under- tion. Alternative concepts and new technologies must be consid- way in which FFI and a civil technology firm are collaborating to ered more systematically and effectively during the initial stages make logistics convoys partially unmanned. Such a concept could of equipment procurement projects. have operational and financial benefits, and would put fewer lives in danger. Whether we like it or not – automation and robotisa- Success in this area requires an efficient procurement practice tion will reduce the need for human labour in many industries in and an ability to integrate new technology through testing, exper- the future. An important question is how the Armed Forces can imentation and creative collaboration between the Armed For- adopt such technology to improve efficiency, logistics or adminis- ces, industry and research communities. The basis for all this lies tration. The goal of such efficiency improvements must be to en- in FFI’s core activity – research and development to build compe- sure that soldiers are better supported and to free up manpower tence, and analyse and develop solutions for the new technology. for important duties. It goes without saying that FFI does not perform this work alone. New vulnerabilities require cooperation To understand, standardise, procure and develop new technolo- Technological developments mean that areas we previously con- gy, we depend on cooperation with allies, industry and national sidered to be secure have become more vulnerable. An adversary and international technology communities. can strike us with long-range precision weapons with little or no warning. Cyberspace has become a domain of warfare in which In 2019, FFI published the report Defence technology trends attacks can paralyse key support functions. We must analyse and – a general analysis of the impact of technology for an efficient and understand these vulnerabilities in order to establish what kind relevant Armed Forces. In the report summary, FFI’s recommen- of approach the Armed Forces should take. dations were translated into four general recommendations for the defence sector. The new threat landscape, in which non-state actors and individuals can strike civil and military targets, requires good coope- • We should prioritise the development of modern, high-tech ration across sectors – or in other words, a fully-functioning To- Armed Forces. tal Defence. The distinction between the Armed Forces’ duties, the maintenance of state sovereignty, and societal security is no • We should rectify significanttechnological vulnerabilities. longer as clear. • We should make long-term investments in the most prom- Technology also gives government agencies a bigger arsenal with ising technology areas. which to influence an adversary’s population and operate in the grey zone between war, crisis and peace, while we are unable to • We should build a stronger culture of innovation in the identify whether a state actor is behind the activity. The Armed Armed Forces. Forces cannot respond to such a threat scenario alone. These recommendations remain just as relevant. FFI has many Our recommendations projects and measures that aim to assist the Armed Forces in this The Armed Forces need a holistic approach in which technolog- direction. You will be able to read more about them from page 16 ical opportunities and vulnerabilities are assessed alongside the onward. development of doctrines, concepts, competence and organisa-

12 OUTLOOK TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT

New groundbreaking technologies

NATO has defined eight technologies (Emerging and Disruptive Technologies – EDTs) which the alliance must follow up closely in their future technology development work. The groundbreaking effects are most likely to occur when these technologies are combined in new ways.

1 Big data and advanced analyses tant domain for future civil and military operations, particularly Developments in data and computing power make it possible to in navigation, communication and surveillance. Developments in structure, visualise, interpret and utilise complex and continually small satellites and sensors are expected to have a major impact. increasing volumes of information faster and in new ways. In the By 2030, there are expected to be five times as many satellites as military context, big data is particularly important in intelligence, there are now. This will drastically expand access to space-related surveillance, reconnaissance and planning. Big data analysis can services. On the sensor side, microwave photonics could give us provide a better decision-making basis and situational awareness, satellite-based radars with a much lower weight and higher perfor- which in turn can provide operational and strategic advantages. mance than at present. The technology can also help to optimise logistics and develop new materials, sensors and training methods. 6 Hypersonic technology Hypersonic weapons systems (missiles and vessels) are defined 2 Artificial intelligence as those which are manoeuvrable and operate at speeds higher In simple terms, this involves algorithms that give machines the than Mach 5 (approx. 6,000 km/h). Speeds like these are reached ability to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence when re-entering the atmosphere from space, or with the aid of – such as recognising patterns, learning from experience, drawing combined propulsion by rocket and scramjet engines. This tech- conclusions or acting. Militarily, this technology provides new nology can be used for reconnaissance and long-distance attacks, opportunities in areas such as decision-making support, situational also with swarms, and will represent a threat to large parts of the awareness, planning, logistics, target selection and swarm tech- current force structure. Countermeasures against hypersonic and nology, and will become essential as a support tool for the coor- manoeuvrable missiles, vessels or swarms are extremely challeng- dination of autonomous and manned systems. The keywords are ing. At the moment, Russia and China seem to have got further increased speed and precision in decision-making processes. than NATO and the USA in their developments in this area.

3 Autonomy 7 Biotechnology and human enhancement Autonomy describes a system’s ability to interpret and react to This covers a broad research field in which biology, genetic tech- its surroundings and make its own decisions in order to solve a nology, new materials, medicine and technological aids are used problem. NATO is expecting autonomy to increase flexibility, en- and combined to strengthen or improve human properties. This durance and effectiveness in military operations, not least through can be in the form of smart, biological or living sensors that moni- the use of autonomous swarms. This technology is providing new tor our state of health, prevent injuries, provide diagnoses or warn opportunities in areas such as urban operations, cyber operations, of chemical attacks. It can also involve developing various pros- logistics and situational awareness, but also brings challenges in thetics, garments, sensors, the human-machine interface and exo- terms of interoperability. skeletons used as equipment by soldiers in order to enhance their senses and improve endurance and strength. Synthetic biology 4 Quantum technologies – defined as the design and development of modified or new bio- Technology development based on the knowledge of quantum logical systems – makes it possible to give humans and organisms physics – which describes matter and behaviour at the atomic and qualities that they would not have naturally. subatomic scale – is another technology that is gaining momen- tum. Next-generation quantum technologies utilise the fundamen- 8 Material technology (new materials and manufacture) tal quantum physics phenomena of entanglement and superposi- This involves artificial materials with unique properties, for exam- tion to make greater progress, mainly in complex calculations and ple those produced using nanotechnology or synthetic biology. computing power, navigation and precision timing and position- We are expecting new materials to make military equipment and ing, sensor and imaging technology, secure communication, ener- clothing lighter, stronger and more energy-efficient. There are par- gy storage and material technology. In the military context, quan- ticularly high expectations of graphene and other 2D materials. For tum technology could potentially give us secure navigation and example, we are expecting new materials to give us faster com- positioning without GPS and satellite navigation, even under water. munication, more efficient energy storage, more sensitive sensors, new signature-reducing materials and better heat protection at hy- 5 Space technology personic speeds. Additive manufacturing, also known as 3D print- This includes all use of technology in space, which is defined as ing, enables the fast production, repair and use of new materials in more than 100 km above sea level. This is an extremely impor- military contexts.

Research and development plan / Part 1 13

Researcher Tønnes Frostad Nygaard test-drives a four-legged robot from Boston Dynamics. Photo: Espen Hofoss / FFI FFI’s goals 2021–2024

The Norwegian Armed Forces’ operational capability, cooperation with allies and the Total Defence capability are strengthened through R&D and utilisation of the technological development GOALS IMPACT

1 2 3 4 Advice regarding the Operational capability is R&D-based knowledge is used Technological opportunities formulation of defence policy improved through R&D-based in planning and implementation are utilised faster

is strengthened knowledge for operational of materiel investments activities, education, training, exercises and evaluation GOALS 5 6 7

PRODUCTION Knowledge production is strengthened The Total Defence and civil-military The national industry and technology through strategic R&D cooperation with cooperation are strengthened base is strengthened through R&D allies and selected actors through R&D and utilisation of the technological developments

Strengthened Strengthened interaction Sound administration corporate governance GOALS ACTIVITY

Strengthened Appropriate competence Effective use of ICT leadership development

INPUT and adapted capacity GOALS and employeeship

VALUES VISION Creative, enterprising, FFI turns knowledge and ideas broad-minded and responsible into an effective defence

Research and development plan / Part 1 15 OUR RESEARCH

FFI will elucidate the future for the Armed Forces

Our task is to see things in context, so that our defence policy and strategic choices of direction form good responses to the challenges faced by the Armed Forces.

The Ministry of Defence and Chief of De- • Finances: What will the total costs of fence have both signalled that they would the Armed Forces be in the long term? FFI’s production goal 1: like more support from FFI for long-term What opportunities are there to make planning in the future. the Armed Forces and defence sector more effective? Advice regarding the An all-round institute formulation of defence policy To provide advice on such a complex • Environmental analysis: Which is strengthened subject, FFI needs solid professional trends in high-level politics, techno- knowledge in a range of disciplines, in- logy, economy, population and cli- depth specialist knowledge of the Armed mate could be significant to the Ar- Forces and its duties, and not least a solid med Forces? Which non-state actors understanding of technology and joint could have an impact on Norwegian operations. security?

FFI acts as a key advisor in the prepa- The key to providing good advice lies in • Total defence: How can the Armed rations for a new long-term plan for the utilising the knowledge of the institute Forces and other civilian and public ci- defence sector every four years. Here we across research projects. vil functions work together to streng- provide comprehensive, research-based then Norway’s defence capability? recommendations on arrangements for FFI’s overall input to the long-term the Armed Forces over the next four years planning work is achieved by gathering We are now taking steps to further syste- and in the longer-term perspective. FFI knowledge from many different R&D pro- matise how all this knowledge is collated also makes a significant contribution to jects and specialist fields. These include: and to strengthen the work on long-term the Chief of Defence’s Military Council planning. (FMR). • Equipment procurement: What kind of equipment is needed in order New project will draw all the threads FFI’s Director General has meetings with to have effective and relevant armed together the Ministry of Defence’s political leaders forces? In January 2021, we started a new pro- twice every year. In 2020, we also establis- ject called “Strategic defence analyses”. hed the “Military Technology Arena”, at • Combat structures: How techno- This project will look at the Armed Forces which FFI and senior management of the logy and available equipment can be as a whole, across the various agencies. In Armed Forces meet twice a year. Plenty of used to achieve the desired effect in a it, we will coordinate and collate the work time is set aside here to discuss relevant joint operational concept. Can we use put in by FFI to the strategic development topics at a confidential level. The mee- scenarios to concretise the Armed For- of the Armed Forces. The project will in- tings discuss technological trends that are ces’ duties and analyse which operati- volve dialogue with the Ministry, Chief significant to the Armed Forces, and the ons, concepts and strengths are needed of Defence Staff, Norwegian Intelligence opportunities, limitations and risks of the to carry out these duties? Service, Norwegian Joint Headquarters technology. and branches of the military.

16 OUTLOOK OUR RESEARCH

Chief of Defence Eirik Kristoffersen and Director General John-Mikal Størdal. Photo: Espen Wang-Naveen / FFI

Its main delivery will be an annual, con- velop and assess different operational fidential report that analyses the balance concepts and contribute to technological, between the Armed Forces’ duties, stru- conceptual and organisational innovation THE GREEN TRANSITION cture and finances, and examines selected in the defence sector. technology fields in depth. Verbal advice Climate change is one of the big- To enable the Ministry of Defence and Obviously, reports are not always the best gest challenges facing society, and it Storting to make informed decisions, the way of delivering knowledge. Just as im- could begin to have a greater impact project will illustrate the consequences portant as the formal deliveries and re- on security and defence policy. FFI of setting different levels of ambition for ports is the running dialogue and the for- will help the research sector achieve defence policy. We will show which risks mal and informal contact between FFI’s the UN’s sustainability targets and Norway runs by putting different duti- researchers and the specialists in the de- the government’s climate targets es and capabilities higher or lower on fence sector. alongside the green transition in the the list of priorities. We will also make a wider community. cost-benefit analysis of different choices Looking ahead, our goal is to find more with regard to strengthening, procuring arenas in which to share our knowledge This involves looking at instruments or phasing out major equipment and de- and reinforce our role as adviser. and environmentally effective mea- partments. sures that are both financially viable and strengthen the operational capa- The project will prepare base scenarios bilities of the Armed Forces. that describe possible future security challenges for Norway. We will also de-

Research and development plan / Part 1 17 OUR RESEARCH

How FFI will help to improve operational capabilities

Knowledge is of little value to the Armed Forces if it does not provide an advantage where it really matters.

In the next long-term period, the Chief of ment, technology and changes in our al- Defence would like to prioritise prepar- liances. FFI’s production goal 2: edness and collaboration in the Armed Forces. Norwegian forces will improve In the coming period, we are proposing the speed at which they are ready for ac- new projects that will look at command, Operational capability is tion and will be better prepared for crisis control and technology in joint opera- improved through R&D-based and war. Joint operational cooperation tions. The projects will help to develop knowledge for operational will also be improved – both between operational analysis and joint operational activities, education, training, exercises and evaluation branches of service, with allies and with processes at the Norwegian Joint Head- the actors involved in the Total Defence quarters (NJHQ) and Norwegian Defence concept. Staff.

An all-round institute Electronic warfare is a focus area for the FFI carries out research and development Armed Forces. FFI has experts who can work and provides advice at all levels of provide advice on how such measures can the Armed Forces – everything from test- used in joint operations, and we can help ing Primus stoves to providing general ad- to ensure that the scope of technological vice about the long-term structure of the opportunities is utilised to maximum ef- Armed Forces. We look at everything from fect. microbiological threats to space technology. At the end of the day, everything we The work being performed on the Total do should result in improved operational Defence 2040 project, in which FFI will endurance and capability. But FFI also look at how the civil and military spheres performs research activities specifically can cooperate in a total defence concept, aimed at operations, education, exercises will help to improve the country’s resist- and evaluation. ance and endurance during a crisis.

Planning operations Personnel and competence Long-term defence planning generates In recent years, the Armed Forces have debate and receives media attention. made major changes to their personnel However, the Armed Forces also relies policy. These changes include an edu- on planning at the operational level. If cation reform, gender-neutral military different branches of the service are to service and the new rank structure for collaborate, appropriate operational pro- military employees, in which the Armed cesses and procedures are essential. Joint Forces have adopted a rank structure in Norwegian operations must be developed line with that of NATO’s, with an officer at the same pace as threats, new equip- corps (OF) and specialist corps (OR). FFI

18 OUTLOOK Soldiers from the Telemark Battalion planning an attack operation on Setermoen firing range in the multinational Cold Response 2020 winter exercise in Troms. Photo: Ole-Sverre Haugli / Armed Forces will now study how these reforms have source-intensive. Simulators connected craft, NH90 helicopter and new 212 CD progressed and how they will affect the through a network can be a cost-effective submarines, to name but a few. Armed Forces in the future. We also look alternative during exercises, training and into how the Armed Forces can make bet- instruction. We are therefore proposing With respect to the F-35, FFI will help to ter use of civilian expertise. several projects with simulator-based ensure that software, planning systems, training and exercises that are available simulators, weapons and countermeas- Exercises in the cloud. For example, we will further ures are tested and evaluated with the aim In the future, the Armed Forces and Nor- develop the project with simulator-based of giving the aircraft full operational ca- wegian Joint Headquarters will have bet- war games in order to analyse plans. pacity in 2025. ter and more systematic access to FFI’s knowledge in connection with major exer- Evaluation There will also be evaluations in terms of cises. For example, FFI will be given a role A major element of procuring new equip- innovation and finding new applications when the allied winter Cold Response Ex- ment involves evaluating how the equip- for technology. For example, in the com- ercise is planned, implemented and evalu- ment works, and how it could be improved ing period we will evaluate satellite-based ated in 2022 and 2024. This will also give or made better use of in operations. FFI communication services in order to see FFI better access to the Armed Forces’ ex- will continue its support for the devel- how these systems can be used innova- pertise, which is fundamental to our work. opment of domains of warfare and main tively in mobile communication in the combat systems in the Armed Forces. We Armed Forces. Training in joint operations and across will also help to operationalise the F-35 departments is time-consuming and re- fighter aircraft, maritime P-8 patrol air-

Research and development plan / Part 1 19 Norwegian F-35A fighter aircraft at Keflavik Airport as part of the Norwegian Air Force’s role during NATO’s Iceland Air Policing operation. Photo: Torbjørn Kjosvold / Norwegian Armed Forces

20 OUTLOOK OUR RESEARCH

New equipment must be planned and used correctly

One third of the defence budget will now be spent on investments. Thorough specialist preliminary work must be performed, to allow us to find the most effective way of using the equipment and avoid investing in the wrong technology.

be more modular – i.e. systems made up procurement projects. The aim is to better of independent modules based on which link in FFI’s collective expertise, and at an FFI’s production goal 3: tasks are to be performed. earlier stage of procurement projects than at present. We will start a special project Mistakes must be discovered early focusing on this in 2021. This will involve R&D-based knowledge is used FFI has a long history of supporting eve- training specialist researchers in plan- in planning and implementa- ry phase of equipment procurement of ning, designing complex technical sys- tion of materiel investments items such as fighter aircraft, submarines, tems, risk management and project mana- air defences and surveillance radar sys- gement. The function of these researchers tems. We have a broad range of specialist will be to act as bridges between FFI’s spe- knowledge and operational insight. This cialists and the procurement projects. means that we can provide invaluable support in the technical assessments and Experiential learning cost-benefit analyses involved in procure- We must learn from previous blunders Investing in new equipment is one of the ment. and success stories. Procuring military most important driving forces behind the equipment is a speciality. In the USA, this development of effective and relevant ar- In recent years, we have also managed the is taught at several of the military univer- med forces. In an era when technology is concept phases of some major, significant sities. developing rapidly, it is vital to invest in projects on behalf of the Ministry of De- equipment that utilises the technological fence, including regional air defence and A great deal of knowledge and experience opportunities, and that can be updated new tanks for the Norwegian Army. Loo- can be obtained from the defence sector’s throughout its lifespan, allowing the equ- king ahead, one of our goals is to assist at previous procurements. However, the ro- ipment to be modified to suit tasks and the an earlier phase of several major procure- tation of personnel in the Armed Forces threat landscape. ment projects for the Armed Forces. means that there can be poor institutional memory and little experiential learning. When we evaluate new equipment, desi- For many years to come, one third of red effect must therefore be more im- the defence budget will be spent on in- Going forward, we will more clearly iden- portant than structural solutions. If we vestments. This makes it important to tify what has worked well and less well use what we want to achieve as a basis, avoid investing in the wrong technology. in these processes, so that we can bene- and provide good descriptions of the ne- Experience shows that mistakes must be fit from this learning in future procure- eds, goals and requirements that must be picked up on as early as possible in the ments. fulfilled in order to achieve this effect, it process. It is considerably more expensive becomes easier to analyse alternatives. to rectify mistakes at a later stage.

The trends we are seeing include the need At FFI, our staff will now start to improve for systems to collaborate to a greater de- their skills in planning, implementing and gree than in the past, and for systems to delivering conceptual work for equipment

Research and development plan / Part 1 21

Investment projects in the Armed Forces

Here are some of the Armed Forces’ high priority investment projects in which FFI may or will play a role in the future.

Soldiers and launcher from the Air Defence Battalion during the Cold Developing and mechanising the Finnmark Land Defence and Northern Brigade have been prioritised by the Response exercise. Photo: Markus Engås / Armed Forces Chief of Defence. These are soldiers from the Arctic Ranger Company from the Garrison of Sør-Varanger on sniper and collaboration training with F-16 fighter aircraft from the Norwegian Air Force, during the Cold Response 2020 exercise. Photo: Simon Amdal / Armed Forces

AIR LAND

F-35 Long-range land-based weapons FFI is supporting the procurement and ope- Land-based, long-range precision weapons have been proposed for rational phase-in of the F-35, for example with Norway for 2026. Before we select the weapons, a Choice of Concept weapons integration and getting the JSM Study will be performed, with the assistance of FFI. Important topics approved for the F-35. The work will help to here are how the new weapons could complement and work with ensure that the Armed Forces achieve the de- other weapons that can take out a target from a distance, and how sired operational effect of the F-35 and FOC the systems could give adversaries new challenges and dilemmas to (Full Operational Capability) in 2025. Weapons handle. At the same time, the weapons must be adapted to develop- are important for operational capability. FFI is ments in surveillance and situational awareness. helping to develop the JSM missile and cannon ammunition for the F-35. Both of these are based Intelligence drones / tactical UAVs on FFI’s long history of developing missiles and The Intelligence Battalion is planning to procure UAVs (Unmanned ammunition. Aerial Vehicles) for intelligence, surveillance, target location and reconnaissance. FFI has strong specialist teams in the technology Air defence behind drone swarms and unmanned aerial systems. We have set up a The Chief of Defence’s plan and Long-Term project that will support the procurement. Our job will be to contribute Plan for the defence sector (LTP) illustrate an urgent need to strengthen the air defence. We to technology development and testing, enabling the system to be must look into how the range of our air defence used under Arctic conditions and to fit into the existing framework. could be increased. In the short term, the NA- The system will be developed in partnership with industry and users. SAMS air defence system will be upgraded. This system is made up of several components. Tanks New missiles and sensor packages to obtain an The Northern Brigade’s manoeuvre battalions will be getting new tanks overview of airspace are being discussed. FFI from 2025 onward. Tanks must undergo continuous development in is ready to support this work with the specialist order to ensure that they are relevant throughout their service life. documentation needed to select concepts and FFI has managed the Choice of Concept Study and will now analyse specify requirements. performance, from single tanks to battalions, evaluate upgrades, and provide advice on additional procurements in the project in order to ensure that good use will be made of the tanks.

22 OUTLOOK

P-8A Poseidon from the US Navy taking off from Andøya in 2016. In 2023, Norway will get five of these Student from the Armed Forces’ engineering academy during the Initial maritime surveillance planes. Photo: Bjørn Volle / Armed Forces Entry 2017 exercise. Photo: Daniel Nordby / Armed Forces

SEA CYBER DOMAIN

P-8A Poseidon Virtual combat ICT Norway has decided to buy five P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol The strategic use of information and commu- planes for its Air Force. The planes will be in place in 2023 and nications technology (ICT) is critical to gaining will be strategically important in terms of maritime surveillance, situational awareness, commanding operations and underwater warfare and developing situational awareness. FFI using modern weapons effectively. The Norwegian will help to make these planes operational in a comprehensive Defence Materiel Agency has been commissioned anti-submarine warfare concept. This will include to acquire ICT to use at the tactical and technical • adapting concepts for sonar operations to relevant areas conflict levels. The program (Mime) identifies, and needs prioritises and implements procurements and • supporting the Air Force with systems for operational plan- other actions on the basis of the anticipated op- ning and for collecting, analysing and disseminating infor- erational effect. FFI is providing method support mation from the P-8 planes in a joint operational concept and performing studies and analyses for Mime, for • analysing operational problems such as availability, man- example with the procurement of a new tactical power and maintenance accounts. radio system. FFI is also supporting the Mime program in planning and implementing innova- Submarines tion activities. Norway is getting new submarines, which are scheduled for delivery from 2029 onward. Our researchers are analysing the performance of the new submarines’ combat system, including the sensor, navigation, weapons, communication and battle management systems. We are also working on the research and development of power supply and battery safety in order to improve operational capabilities. We are also working on performance calculations for the tasks that submarines could be given in modern joint operational warfare. This work will illustrate the ways in which the submarine The Norwegian NorSat-3 satellite will reveal the identity of vessels that could perform the duties for which it is intended. are actively trying to stay hidden. Graphic: FFI / UTIAS / SFL / ESA / NASA

NSM SPACE New missiles will be developed between now and 2035. FFI is supporting the technical development of seeker head and engine, Situational awareness and communication in our and we are supporting missile development through analyses of northern regions is important in terms of main- threats and scenarios in which missiles could have a role to play. In taining and improving our operational capability the future, it will be important to perform system studies of missiles and for achieving a higher level of preparedness. in order to keep up to date with developments and identify the Norway already has a number of microsatellites way forward for next-generation weapons. and low-orbit satellites that provide us with valu- able data. FFI has played a key role in developing Maritime Mine Counter Measures (MCM) these. And more are on the way. NorSat-3 will be Protecting our waters from mines is important in order to protect launched in 2021, fitted with a navigation radar national and allied operations, particularly when we will receive detector. Satellites with low-light cameras (Nor- support from our allies. FFI is working with the Norwegian De- fence Materiel Agency and Norwegian Navy on the development Sat-4) are also planned, as well as a satellite to test and testing of a new concept. This will involve mine searches by better tactical communication in the High North unmanned underwater vehicles, boats and planes, while a mother (MicroTac-Sat). As well as developing technical ship controls the operation from a safe distance. This is a pilot solutions, FFI is also contributing knowledge about project in the use of autonomous modular systems, which could the use of data from satellites, and supporting the eventually be used in other domains of warfare. Armed Forces with the procurement and use of large satellite systems.

Research and development plan / Part 1 23 OUR RESEARCH

FFI as a technology incubator

There is an enormous potential effect in adopting new technology in military contexts.

For the Armed Forces, adopting new technology is developing so rapidly that the chnology can be risky, when the techno- threat landscape is constantly changing. FFI’s production goal 4: logy has not been tested or used opera- tionally before. It can also be difficult to In this context, innovation does not just imagine how new technology can perform mean adopting new technology. It can Technological opportunities tasks in new ways. For investors and in- also mean using existing technology in are utilised faster dustrial companies, there is risk involved innovative ways, in an effective interact- in developing untested technology for ion between existing and new equipment. new markets. Equally, new technology must interact with the people and organisation that will The fact that new technology is available be using it. does not mean that it is a case of “plug and play” for the Armed Forces. The techn- New test arenas ology must be tested, matured and often So what is needed to successfully develop FFI’s production goal 7: developed further before it is ready for and utilise technology that satisfies the use by the Armed Forces. FFI helps to re- needs of the Armed Forces? We belie- duce the risks, both for the Armed Forces ve that in the future, facilities must be The national industry and and for Norwegian companies, by provi- in place to ensure that operational user technology base is ding the facilities to experiment with and communities can work even more closely strengthened through R&D test the benefits of new technology. with researchers and industry to ensure that they have the same understanding of Innovation in system form a problem, and of problem-solving, expe- Since World War Two, the triaxial colla- rimentation and developing solutions. boration between the Armed Forces, FFI and industry has been important in terms That is why we have an ambition to con- of building industry and technical exper- tinue developing existing test arenas and tise in Norway. We now have a defence in- to establish new arenas for innovation dustry that is niche-based, high-tech and and experimentation all over the country internationally competitive. in the coming years (see overview on pa- ges 28–29). Here we will invite techno- In order to further reinforce the triaxi- logy and industrial companies to develop al collaboration and the Armed Forces’ practical solutions for operational needs, capacity to innovate, FFI has set up the in partnership with our researchers and Innovation and Industrial Development operational personnel. Division and ICE worx innovation centre. We believe that this is an absolutely We believe that this kind of experimental essential measure in a world in which te- approach increases the likelihood of suc-

24 OUTLOOK OUR RESEARCH

regions of the High North in the future. The aim is for the work to result in specific recommendations and evaluations for various aspects of the defence sector, including the operational side.

We are also working internationally to find joint solutions with our allies and benefit from the knowledge and technology being developed and tested there. An example of this is the work performed by the NATO Science & Technology Organi- sation (NATO STO). This gives us access

FFI researchers Tønnes Frostad Nygaard (left) and David Kolden in deep concentration before a demo to R&D and results in fields such as quan- at Rena in autumn 2020. Photo: Espen Hofoss / FFI tum technology, biotechnology, material technology and other technologies anticipated to have a disruptive effect in a defence cessfully utilising technological opportu- for use in a range of operational applica- context. nities more quickly, because aspects such tions. as organisation, procedures, training, Help for the industry staffing needs and infrastructure will be We also have an ongoing strategic focus An important goal for FFI in the future tested as part of the experimentation. on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data. is to continue developing and to impro- Among other projects, the team is working ve the unique Norwegian triaxial model. Strategic focus on new technology to automate data processing in the field The FFI project “Innovation in the de- In order to ensure that we are able to help and on AI methods of interpreting image fence sector” will systematise experiences the Armed Forces with new technology, and surveillance data. Again, the objecti- from partnerships between the research FFI is starting to have a strategic focus on ve here is to streamline tasks and develop community, industry and Armed Forces. technology that is not mature enough to new solutions that strengthen our defence This will give us knowledge about which use, but that we believe could be of pivotal capability, as well as improve security and measures, processes and partnership mo- importance for the Armed Forces in the preparedness in the wider society. dels could strengthen the Armed Forces’ future. ability to make use of new technology. But what is the next big strategic focus In 2013, we started focusing strategical- area? The Tekno project could lead us in This knowledge will be used to provide ly on autonomous (unmanned) systems. the right direction here. Tekno takes in- strategic advice to actors within the sector Work is now underway throughout the ternational trend studies and looks at the and to provide better framework con- institute to create demonstrators in order consequences that technological trends ditions for innovation throughout the to reduce risk and mature this technology could have on military operations in the defence sector.

Research and development plan / Part 1 25 OUR RESEARCH

Looking ahead, we will continue supporting Norwegian industry with technological expertise, advice on how they can reduce the risks associated with product development and how they can gain access to domestic and international defence markets.

Looking ahead, we will continue suppor- These competence areas are defined on ting Norwegian industry with technologi- the basis of basic national defence needs cal expertise, recommendations on how and security interests. They will form the they can reduce the risks associated with basis of future partnerships between in- product development and how they can dustry and the Armed Forces. A long-term gain access to domestic and international and targeted focus here will form the ba- defence markets. sis of new military niche products that we can offer our close allies. These are an im- Industrial development = security portant contribution to burden-sharing Control of technology and industries that in NATO. have an impact on Norwegian security and preparedness ensures that we are free Through systematic experiential learning to act in crisis and war. The national de- and knowledge development, we have fence industry strategy highlights the fol- helped to develop the defence industry lowing as particularly important compe- strategy. A new Report to the Storting has tence areas: been written and is scheduled for political • command, control, information and consideration in the spring of 2021. battle management systems • systems integration • autonomous systems and artificial intelligence • missile technology • underwater technology • ammunition, rocket engines and military explosives • material technology especially developed and adapted for military purposes • lifetime support for military systems.

26 OUTLOOK Research and development plan / Part 1 27 Test arenas

FFI will continue to develop existing arenas for testing and experimentation, and establish three new ICE worx innovation arenas with links to the Armed Forces’ operational activities. We will invite technology and industrial companies to these arenas in order to develop practical solutions for operational needs, in close partnership with our researchers and military personnel.

Horten ICE worx Kjeller NEW!

For many years, Horten has acted as a testing This is where we will be experimenting with and experimentation arena for maritime cyber-systems and ICT systems. The plan is systems, with a particular focus on modular to make this the hub of the Armed Forces’ autonomous systems. testing and developing network (FORTUNE). The work is closely connected to the Mime “Modular” means that something is made up programme, which will provide the Armed of independent modules or “building blocks” Forces with ICT systems for use in combat. that can be put together in different ways for different applications. “Autonomous” means that systems can perform actions and tasks without being directly controlled by people. An example of an autonomous modular system is the new Norwegian Maritime Mine Counter Measure system that will be in place by 2028. This will combine the use of technologies such as autonomous service vehicles and the HUGIN underwater vessel to detect and neutralise underwater mines.

Ultimately, FFI is planning to continue developing Horten so that innovation and experimentation will be reinforced with everything from underwater systems to general command, control and information systems in a joint operational environment.

28 OUTLOOK ICE worx Rena NEW! ICE worx Arctic NEW!

This arena will probably be co-located with Norway has many competitive advantages the Norwegian Army Weapons School and will that make us well-equipped to develop innova- support the development of future operational tive technology for applications in the Arctic. concepts for the Armed Forces. We have strong technology communities working in military technology and industrial Relevant topics include the human-machine development. There are also rapid develop- partnership and manned-unmanned systems, ments in space activity in the High North, mixed reality, modern equipment for soldiers, where there are major synergies between civil soldier systems, distributed sensors and and military applications. All this provides a autonomous platforms. ICE worx Rena will natural starting point for a comprehensive develop systems to make it easier to expe- focus on innovation in the High North. riment with autonomous vessels working in partnership with manned vehicles. ICE worx Arctic’s Goal is to help the Armed Forces, civil preparedness authorities and NATO to have effective and relevant equipment that is especially adapted for use in northern regions. The arena will facilitate partnerships with relevant expert communi- Rygge ties and industry in this part of the country.

In partnership with the Air Force and defence A successful initiative will strengthen Norway’s industry, FFI has been experimenting here defence capabilities and preparedness. Skills since 2019 on solutions for base defence, development and business development for command/control and area control at fixed a more sustainable and attractive society in bases. Sensor technology, sensor integration the High North are possible additional effects. and situational awareness have been keywords for its activities.

Looking ahead, planned experiments include autonomous ground service vehicles and countermeasures against drones. The solutions developed must be robust enough for use in an Arctic climate, since they will be used at the bases in the High North.

Research and development plan / Part 1 29 OUR RESEARCH

Strategic partnerships

FFI works with a range of national and international expert communities to gather knowledge and ensure that the Armed Forces will derive maximum benefit from the rapid developments in technology.

In 2020, FFI and the University of Oslo be solved. This type of partnership is not signed a partnership agreement in which necessarily associated with general agree- FFI’s production goal 5: FFI and the Department of Technolo- ments, but is achieved through specialist gy Systems will exchange competence networks, in which people with specialist in areas such as sensor technology, la- expertise are brought in from other in- Knowledge production is sers, autonomy, cyber-security, quantum stitutions to contribute to a project or a strengthened through strategic technology, network technology, space report. As well as national research and R&D cooperation with technology, fluid dynamics and material education communities, FFI works with a allies and selected actors technology. We also have an ongoing part- number of Norwegian technology compa- nership with the Norwegian University of nies in the development of prototypes and Science and Technology (NTNU) in au- industrialisation of products that could be tonomy, in which FFI employees pursue useful to the Armed Forces. A recent ex- doctoral degrees with supervisors from ample is the partnership with Yeti Move NTNU. At the same time, FFI employees on the development of technology for specialising in autonomy work part-time autonomous logistics convoys for use in at NTNU, supervising and recruiting tal- the Armed Forces. FFI’s Innovation and ented students. This partnership allows Industrial Development Division and our two of the strongest Norwegian specialist ICE worx innovation centre will help to communities in autonomy to exchange professionalise and systematise this type information and experience in technolog- of development work. ical developments in this field. Norway must contribute internationally We also have partnerships that connect However, from FFI’s perspective, most academia and industry to the research important strategic partnerships involv- and development work carried out by FFI ing new defence-related technology and for the Armed Forces. An example of this development are international. The USA is the partnership agreement between the and China are involved in a frantic race for University of Bergen, Institute of Marine technological hegemony. NATO and our Research, NTNU, University of Tromsø close allies have defined the development and Kongsberg Maritime regarding the of new technology as a strategic linchpin utilisation of autonomous underwater ve- in the efforts to improve defence capabili- hicles in maritime research. ties and societal security. Norway and FFI are expected to contribute to this work. Much of the partnership work carried out by FFI and national knowledge communi- NATO’s research and development work ties is currently operational, and linked to is mainly performed through the NATO specific projects and problems that must Science & Technology Organisation (STO)

30 OUTLOOK OUR RESEARCH

– a network of 6,500 researchers, engi- neers and analysts from 30 NATO nations and 48 partner nations (2020).

In 2021, NATO STO is looking at how to ensure that sufficient research and development attention can be focused on the upcoming new technologies from the “S&T trends 2020–2040” trend study. This will also be important for FFI in the future.

Norway is one of the ten most active nations in the STO partnership. FFI is the biggest participant from Norway, but other defence agencies, academia and Norwegian industry are also participating in the activities. Norway is an attractive partner because we can offer world-class niche competence, defence technology and defence systems. This is cooperation that will help give Norway access to high-tech military equipment and services, and the knowledge needed to perform its own military research and develop- In September 2017, more than 50 researchers from NATO and selected partner countries came to ment (R&D). Kjeller to discuss standardising HF communication. Photo: Christian Tandberg / FFI

From 2020 onwards, FFI has been represented at senior level on three of STO’s seven technical panels. In summer 2021, In the years ahead, Norwegian specialist funding the participation of Norwegian FFI’s former Director General John-Mi- teams will compete for funds from the industry and the civil sector in interna- kal Størdal will take over the job of Direc- European Defence Fund (EDF), in which tional defence-related R&D partnerships. tor of STO’s Collaborative Support Office Norway has decided to participate. FFI is in Paris. Norway will thereby become aiming to become an important actor in Norway’s increased focus on European even more visible and gain more influence this work, and will enlist the best people partnerships in the many EU programmes in this important corporation arena. from the Norwegian defence-related tech- also imposes new demands on FFI, since nology communities in order to prepare we are already actively participating in European projects good applications. FFI is in a unique po- projects run by the European Space Agen- Although NATO will continue to be the sition to utilise this opportunity through cy and EU Horizon programme i 2020. linchpin of the international technology well-established partnerships with indus- partnership in which FFI is a participant, try, academia and international actors. This increased focus has required meas- European partnerships are becoming in- ures such as the establishment of a sep- creasingly important. FFI is represented On behalf of the Ministry of Defence, FFI arate budget for applications to EU pro- on bodies such as the European Defence has allocated personnel and resources to jects. It may also be necessary to create Agency (EDA), Anglo-Netherlands-Nor- identify, initiate and coordinate interna- a new position to coordinate this work, wegian collaboration (ANNC) and the tional partnerships in the future. FFI has and to create incentives to encourage FFI Strategic Mutual Assistance in Research been allocated around NOK 40 million a projects to apply to and participate in EU and Technology (SMART). year for this purpose. Much of this goes on partnerships.

Research and development plan / Part 1 31 OUR RESEARCH

We will continue to develop our Total Defence capability

Civil-military cooperation is a mainstay of Norwe- gian preparedness and crisis management.

The Total Defence concept means that changing. A consistent feature is that the societal and military, public and private threats are cross-sectoral. It means that FFI’s production goal 6: resources can all be used to tackle threats every sector of society could be vulner- against societal security and national se- able to the use of force or pressure. The curity. This involves utilising available traditional distinctions between peace, The Total Defence and and limited resources as well as possible crisis and war and between civil and mil- civil-military cooperation are in order to improve the nation’s resistance itary tasks are becoming blurred. Rap- strengthened through R&D and endurance during a crisis. The Total id technological developments are also and utilisation of the technological developments Defence concept therefore also makes challenging the current systems of system sense from a socio-economic perspective. procurement and management. Civil-military cooperation must be strengthened Norway’s defence capability is based on in order to respond to challenges that are the Armed Forces’ own capability, NATO’s continuously developing and are becom- collective defences and reinforcement ing more complex. from close allies. But the Armed Forces’ capability and the ability to receive allied In order to be able to continue developing support depends on cooperation with civ- the Total Defence for the future, in 2021 il actors, in fields such as supplies, infra- FFI is starting a new project called Total structure and logistics. This dependence Defence Toward 2040. Some of the ques- on civil actors has increased at the same tions that the project will seek to answer pace as the reductions in support struc- are: ture and functions, and the Armed Forces’ • What will the threat landscape and increase in outsourcing, as well as privati- conflict landscape of the future look sation and efficiency measures in the wid- like? er society. • How will we plan our Total Defence in a society that is continuously chang- NATO and the EU have also had an in- ing? creasing focus on civil preparedness and • How can we develop the ability to robust social functions. In recent years, achieve cross-sectoral situational Norway has been the host nation for three awareness? major crisis management exercises or- • Which future concepts and techno- ganised by NATO, the biggest of these be- logical systems can be developed to ing Trident Juncture in 2018. improve our Total Defence capability and ability to resist? New knowledge about the Total De- fence Total Defence Toward 2040 will support The threat landscape faced by Norway is the Ministry of Defence in its long-term

32 OUTLOOK OUR RESEARCH

planning and policy-making, and other actors involved in the Total Defence.

Knowing more about the threat landscape As well as throwing light on the question of how the Total Defence could and should be structured, FFI has a number of technology projects and research projects that could also help to provide civil sector parties involved in preparedness with more knowledge.

The topics we are looking at include cyber security, cyber operations, composite threats, terrorism, use of artificial intelligence, digital systems and CBRNE – which means research into chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear and explosive threats. Its CBRNE knowledge and infrastructure proved relevant and enabled FFI to support the health authorities during the 2020 coronavirus crisis. In the years ahead, we will invest in CBRNE research and laboratory functions in order to improve our understanding of threats and continue our function as a national preparedness laboratory.

Influence operations are a less tangible, but equally real threat. One of FFI’s new research projects aims to try to understand the entirety and extent of this threat. How could such operations damage central societal areas? Are there any countermeas- In January 2018, FFI became a national preparedness laboratory that can advise the emergency ures against influence operations? We will services and police on potentially hazardous substances. Photo: Lars Magne Hovtun / OBRE improve our national ability to understand and carry out information operations, as well as the abilities of society and the Armed Forces to protect themselves against influence operations.

We want to become more visible as a know- The threat landscape faced by Norway is changing. A consistent ledge provider and adviser on Total Defence feature is that the threats are cross-sectoral. It means that every for the Armed Forces and actors involved in civil preparedness in the 2021–24 peri- sector of society could be vulnerable to the use of force or pressure. od. FFI will therefore enter into long-term partnerships with national and international research and development actors in order to continue developing the Total Defence in line with the government’s am- bitions.

Research and development plan / Part 1 33 Organisation chart from 1 March 2021

FFI BOARD INTERNAL AUDIT

DIRECTOR GENERAL DEFENCE RESEARCH ASS. DIRECTOR GENERAL REVIEW BOARD

STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

STRATEGIC ANALYSES AND SENSOR AND DEFENCE SYSTEMS JOINT SYSTEMS SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS

 Combat structures  Cybersecurity and operations  Operational surveillance  Land-based combat systems  Electromagnetic operations  Image and data utilisation  Maritime combat systems  Defence modelling  Radar  Fighter aircraft, missiles and  Defence economics  Satellite systems ammunition  Operational ICT  Underwater sensor systems  Autonomous systems  Marine environment surveying

34 OUTLOOK EXECUTIVE GROUP

Espen Skjelland, Director General (acting) Jan Erik Torp, Assistant Director General (acting) André Pettersen, Research Director of the Strategic Development and Corporate Governance Division (acting) Johnny Bardal, Research Director of the Defence Systems Division Tor-Odd Høydal, Research Director of the Strategic Analyses and Joint Systems Division (acting) Trygve Sparr, Research Director of the Sensor and Surveillance Systems Division (acting) Janet Blatny, Research Director of the Total Defence Division Hanne Marit Bjørk, Research Director of the Innovation and Industrial Development Division Tove Johansen, Director of the Operation and Support Division (acting)

INNOVATION AND OPERATION AND TOTAL DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT SUPPORT

 Protection of society  Asymmetric warfare  Document centre  Sustainability and  ICE worx innovation centre  Communication unit performance capacity  Innovation in the defence sector  Property, buildings and  CBRNE  Commercialisation and industrial construction  Information and interference partnerships  Guards, security and reception  Fluids and materials  Technology trends  HR unit  Terrorism and threat analysis  National technology and industrial  Finance unit development  IT unit  Triaxial model 2.0

Research and development plan / Part 1 35 FFI turns knowledge and ideas into an effective defence

FFI KJELLER Postboks 25 NO-2027 Kjeller

Visiting address: Instituttveien 20 NO-2007 Kjeller

FFI HORTEN Postboks 115 NO-3191 Horten

Visiting address: Karljohansvern NO-3190 Horten

Telephone: +47 63 80 70 00 Fax: +47 63 80 71 15 Military telephone: +47 505 70 00

Email: [email protected]

Text and design: FFI Photo: FFI and Norwegian Armed Forces Printing: 07 Gruppen Edition: 500 (06/2021) P: ISBN 978-82-464-3315-8 E: ISBN 978-82-464-3316-5

ffi.no/en

36 OUTLOOK