RISING SEAS, RISING STAKES Real Estate Developer Jason Fane, Left, Attends an I-195 a Once-In-A-Century Hurricane Would Wreak Havoc in R.I

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PROVIDENCE RISING SEAS, RISING STAKES Real estate developer Jason Fane, left, attends an I-195 A once-in-a-century hurricane would wreak havoc in R.I. Redevelopment District Commis- sion meeting last week with his Raise the sea level 7 feet and things get really ugly sister, Daria Fane, center, and, at right, Gad Regensburger, an Israeli engineer who has opened doors for Fane in Rhode Island. THE PROVIDENCE JOURNAL/KRIS CRAIG The man behind high-rise proposal Skyscrapers proponent is well connected

By Kate Bramson Journal Staff Writer

PROVIDENCE — Provi- dence wasn't anywhere on Jason Fane’s radar three years ago. But then he hired Gad Regensburger, who has strong ties to the capital Baseline 100 year city through his decade-long No storm Return Period Storm friendship with Providence No sea-level rise 7’ sea-level rise Municipal Court Chief Judge 1 100 Frank Caprio. No damage projected Projected percent damage After Regensburger earned a master's degree from Brown University in 2013, a time when he and his IMAGES BY PETER STEMPEL, MARINE AFFAIRS VISUALIZATION LAB, UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND wife lived for a year with the Caprio family, Regensburger How bad they think it could get: The map on the left shows Conimicut Point, Warwick, today. On the right, the same neighborhood is subjected to a 100-year storm, accepted a job with The Fane plus a seven-foot sea rise. Missing buildings have already been displaced by higher seas, and colors show the extent of damage, ranging up to total loss in red. Organization in New York City. By Alex Kuffner | Journal Staff Writer For two years, Fane BARRINGTON ignored his new hire on one n his laptop computer, Grover Fugate, director of the Rhode Island Coastal front: "the virtues of Provi- Conimicut dence" as the next city where Resources Management Council, opens up a 3D map of the potential flooding Point he should invest, Fane told damage to buildings on Conimicut Point in Warwick if a storm like Hurricane The Providence Journal. Carol in 1954 were to strike again. The buildings are color-coded in shades Regensburger wore him down. starting with green, depicting no impact from the 15-foot surge of water that WARWICK “About a year ago, he storm winds would drive up Narragansett Bay; through yellow, a low percentage got me to come up here, Oof damage; orange, a higher percentage; and finally ending at red, a near-total or total loss. and I was pleasantly sur- prised,” Fane told the I-195 Redevelopment District The most vulnerable houses on the professor of ocean engineering at the Univer- Commission on Monday. narrow, triangular point that juts into the sity of Rhode Island, looks on, Fugate clicks to "I remembered Providence Bay are colored red, but the more sheltered the next slide in his presentation, showing a from how it had been in the shoreline neighborhoods to the north and map of the same neighborhoods in the event ’60s and ’70s, and it has south fare better, with swathes of yellow of the same type of 100-year storm. 1 mile and only scattered dabs of orange. indeed changed, has gotten Source: maps4news.com/©HERE a lot better.” Then, as Malcolm Spaulding, an emeritus SEE STAKES, A10 GATEHOUSE MEDIA

Although Fane seemed to burst onto the Rhode Island scene last week with plans to PODCAST build three residential towers on former highway land in Providence, he has been visiting the city at least Spotlight on Providence as ‘Crimetown’ debuts since the Jan. 11 meeting of the Commerce Corporation By Amanda Milkovits American city. Providence, The rise of Online and 195 Commission. Journal Staff Writer with its notorious history Providence Throughout the year, Fane of mafiosi and corrupt Mayor Vincent Listen to the “Crimetown” has built a well-connected PROVIDENCE — Dirty politicans, is the focus of A. Cianci Jr. is preview — and at noon, team of local lawyers, lob- cops, crooked politicians Season One. among the sto- the ﬁ rst two episodes — byists and communications and loyal mobsters — Provi- In the first two epi- rylines in the and explore projects from professionals with expe- dence's rich history of crime sodes, released Sunday, first episodes The Journal’s archives on rience in state and city and corruption is featured "Crimetown" sets out the of the podcast the Patriarca crime family government to help promote in the new podcast "Cri- landscape, with the rise “Crimetown.” and the vice and virtue of Hope Point Towers. metown," debuting Sunday. of the late Mayor Vincent JOURNAL Vincent A. “Buddy” Cianci The series is meant to FILES/RICHARD Jr., at providencejournal. SEE FANE, A12 explore misdeeds in an SEE CRIMETOWN, A12 BENJAMIN com/crimetown

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were developed by the STAKES Army Corps of Engineers. From Page A1 Those projections, known as damage functions, were But this one also takes into adapted to break down the account seven feet of sea loss to a structure’s value level rise, which the National by tiers: 0, 0 to 25 percent, Oceanic and Atmospheric 26 percent to 50 percent, 51 Administration predicts percent to 75 percent, and 76 could occur by the end of this percent to 100 percent. century. And for the three-dimen- In the new map, dozens of sional renderings created by structures are already gone, URI's Marine Affairs Visu- swallowed up by the higher alization Lab like the one of seas that have pushed inland, Warwick that Fugate shows and hundreds of the remain- in his presentation, each tier ing buildings are now awash is assigned a color, running in broad bands of red and from green to red, so the orange in a wave of destruc- viewer can easily assess the tion that stretches from the level of damage. point and runs west along So far, CERI maps have both sides of Mill Cove and been created for sections of up the banks of Buckeye Charlestown and Warwick, Brook. as part of a federally funded In this scenario, more than pilot project to demonstrate twice as many buildings sus- the potential impact of a tain damage. serious storm on the two “A bad day,” Spaulding broad categories of coastline remarks. in Rhode Island: along the ocean in the southern part These maps are the product of the state and to the north of what experts say is one within Narragansett Bay. of the most sophisticated models developed anywhere Some of the results so far have to project future damage Nearly all the structures on Conimicut Point were destroyed by the Hurricane of 1938. Most houses built in their place were destroyed by Hur- been surprising. It’s reason- from storm surges and sea ricane Carol in 1954. JOURNAL FILES able to think that Warwick, level rise. located in the middle reaches They are among the first to chance of happening in any of the Bay, is more protected result from a new tool cre- Projected number of flooded buildings given year and the norm used than Charlestown, which is ated by the CRMC and URI by the federal government exposed to the open ocean. Rhode Island coastal communities Warwick as part of a continuing effort for coastal planning — and But the CERI projections to better predict the effects with seas that are seven feet show the risks in the two Total number of buildings: 259,383 23,868 of climate change on Rhode higher than today — the communities are nearly the Island’s 400 miles of coast- upper estimate by 2100 put same. line. Fugate and Spaulding Buildings ﬂooded forward by NOAA. That’s true for a couple of have called the mapping in the storm The maps incorpo- reasons. One, the shoreline tool CERI, short for Coastal surge from a rate information on neighborhoods in Warwick Environmental Risk Index. 100-year storm: 16,776 (6.5%) 2,766 (8.4%) housing structures from are much more densely CERI builds on an existing Rhode Island’s E-911 emer- developed than those in computer mapping program Buildings ﬂooded gency response database, Charlestown. called StormTools that was in the storm surge which not only pinpoints And two, the wind-driven created nearly two years from a 100-year houses using satellite infor- storm surge that would ago, also at the request of the storm if sea levels mation but also divides them spread out horizontally in into general categories: CRMC and under the direc- rise 7 feet: 31,229 (12%) 5,685 (17.3%) Charlestown, affecting wide tion of Spaulding. with basement or without, geographic areas, would StormTools marries Source: UniversitUniversityy Ofof Rhode Island GATEHOUSE MEDIA elevated or not, one story or actually amplify as it trav- Google Earth-like images two, and so on. eled up the Bay, meting out of Rhode Island with pro- variety of future conditions. The new program goes damage from flooding under CERI then integrates significant damage in iso- jections of sea level rise and It is interactive and online, even further by depicting, a pair of extreme conditions: generic projections of lated pockets. storm surge to predict the allowing a user to zoom in street by street and building during a 100-year storm storm damage for those reach of floodwaters in a on any area of the state. by building, the extent of — one that has a 1-percent different house types that SEE STAKES, A11 PROVIDENCE JOURNAL | providencejournal.com | Sunday, November 20, 2016 A11 Researchers’ trailblazing work lauded as ‘amazing’ RI ‘leading the Resources Management president of research at the and Budget, which advises other states, where coastal The scientists are also Council’s work to plan for Johnston-based insurance the president on regulatory agencies are advisory or pol- working to include damage charge’ in estimating the effects of climate change, firm FM Global, goes a step policies. icy-oriented only, the CRMC from high winds, as well as risks from storms describing the agency’s further. Fugate said the federal is also a permitting author- from floodwaters. They may efforts as “amazing.” “The United States is head officials were most inter- ity, so it has a direct stake in also factor in higher rates of By Alex Kuffner Chris Hatfield, project and shoulders above the rest ested in hearing about how the resiliency of structures erosion, which are expected Journal Staff Writer manager in the U.S. Army of the world,” he says. “And he and other Rhode Island that it allows to be built on to increase over time as seas Corps of Engineers’ New Rhode Island is leading the planners are using the the shoreline. rise. PROVIDENCE — At a England office, says he charge in getting to the next mapping tools to prepare As they move forward with And, perhaps most impor- recent environmental con- knows of no other state in level of detail.” businesses and homeown- CERI, which is being funded tantly, the program will ference hosted by U.S. Sen. the region that has created In September, Grover ers for climate change and through grants from the U.S. take into account assessed Sheldon Whitehouse, Jeremy such detailed models for Fugate, executive director working with lenders and the Department of Housing and values of buildings to put Jackson, professor emeritus projecting risks from coastal of the CRMC, visited the insurance industry. Urban Development, the dollar figures on the damage at the Scripps Institute of storms. White House to give a pre- Part of the reason the project team plans to expand projections. Oceanography and a lead- “None of them have done sentation on the Coastal CRMC has worked so hard the scope of the tool geo- ing voice on human impacts anything quite like it,” he Environmental Risk Index to develop the new pro- graphically, starting with — akuffner on the environment, praised said in an interview. and StormTools to the fed- grams is its unique role in maps of Westerly and South @providencejournal.com the Rhode Island Coastal Louis Gritzo, vice eral Office of Management Rhode Island. Unlike in most Kingstown. (401) 277-7457

It turns out that most of the houses on the Charlestown and Warwick coasts are ill-suited to a future of higher seas. Two-thirds of homes in the study area in each community have basements while only a small percentage in Charlestown and a tiny fraction in Warwick are elevated.

the environmental group STAKES Save the Bay, answers that From Page A10 question. “We should really look In other words, as the Bay at retreat, regrading and narrows towards its head in removal of infrastructure,” Providence, the surge would she says. grow higher, increasing the She stands on a sandy potential impacts to places path where the end of Mill like Warwick along the way. Cove Road used to be. With “I didn’t quite believe extreme high tides washing that until I started taking over the road and eroding the a look at the numbers, but earth underneath, the city sure enough,” Spaulding agreed to have a 140-foot- told coastal planners from long strip removed in 2014 around the state at a recent and replaced with a rocky meeting. “It turns out there’s swale and plantings to con- a 40-percent amplification trol drainage and a walking from the mouth of the Bay to path that leads to a beach on the head of the Bay ... and the Bay. almost no amplification as Save the Bay carried out you go along the [southeast- similar projects at three ern] coast.” other roads in Riverview and Unsurprisingly, the CERI one in Conimicut Village as projections also show that part of a NOAA-funded higher seas would without project to help the area better question exacerbate the withstand storms and flood- effects of an extreme storm. ing. The long-term hope is Simply put, as seas rise, that the little protection the flooding will spread inland beach offers can be enhanced and affect many more struc- by a buffer of native plants 100 year tures that would otherwise and salt marshes. remain untouched. Wave Return Period Storm There are at least half a damage would also extend No sea-level rise dozen other roads in this its reach. 1 100 stretch of coastline that Six percent of residential Projected percent damage dead-end near the Bay and structures within Rhode are slowly being undermined Island's 21 coastal communi- by encroaching waters. The ties are currently vulnerable A CERI map for Warwick shows predicted damage to coastal buildings in the event of a 100-year storm and no sea level rise. PETER STEMPEL, city is considering remov- to some level of flooding MARINE AFFAIRS VISUALIZATION LAB, UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND ing sections of those roads, in the event of a 100-year too, and has even closed storm, according to calcula- building with damage greater down one street in Conimi- tions made by URI graduate than that cannot simply cut because of frequent tidal student Nicole Leporacci be repaired to its previous flooding. as part of the CERI project. state but must be rebuilt in As she walks on the beach That number nearly doubles conformity with the latest near Mill Cove, Ferguson to 12 percent if seven feet of building standards. points across to vacant sea level rise is factored in. In the short term, house lots with “For Sale” Leporacci also pinpointed DePasquale says, the city is signs and shakes her head. hotspots for flooding based looking at ways to station “We have enough vulner- on the density of affected more emergency response able infrastructure in our structures — the number vehicles on Warwick Neck, coastal zone,” she says. “We per square mile. In the the peninsula that runs don’t want to add more.” event of seven feet of sea south from Conimicut. This section of coastline level rise, the worst-hit The maps show that the has been eroding for decades areas would include large surge from 100-year storm — in places, as much as 200 chunks of Warren and Bar- would inundate the strip of feet in the last 80 years, rington, eastern Warwick, land between Mill Cove and according to CRMC maps Misquamicut in Westerly, Warwick Cove, cutting the based on historical aerial downtown Newport and, residential areas of War- photos. In one 1939 photo, a assuming the Fox Point wick Neck off from the rest north-south road is visible Hurricane Barrier would of the city and effectively running a few blocks along be overtopped, downtown creating a temporary island the Riverview shore. That Providence. in the Bay. road is gone, subsumed by Wenley Ferguson, habitat restoration director for Save the Bay, discusses the changing shoreline with resi- As would be expected, ele- City officials are also the Bay. dent Stephanie Van Patten, left. THE PROVIDENCE JOURNAL/DAVID DELPOIO vated houses fare best in the considering changes to the Riverview Beach is littered CERI projections. Houses building code to bump up the with wooden pilings, broken with basements generally Future ﬂooding in R.I. the city is already using the “freeboard” requirement — concrete and other remnants fare the worst, because their maps developed by Fugate the minimum height a home of houses, commercial build- boilers, hot water heaters Number of and Spaulding to look ahead. 146 0 - 30 must be elevated above pro- ings and seawalls that were and other costly mechanical inundated The projections are worry- Pawtucket 31 - 200 jected flood elevations. An destroyed in the Hurricane systems are installed below RHODE 95 structures ing for a city with shoreline 201 - 500 increase would affect new of 1938 or Hurricane Carol or ground level where even a ISLAND per square neighborhoods like Con- 501 - 1,000 construction, but it could have been abandoned as the small amount of water can Providence mile in the imicut that are primarily > 1,000 also apply to extensive water has gradually moved cause significant damage. event of a low-lying and separated 100-year renovation of an existing in. It turns out that most of from the water by narrow 6 storm with a 7-foot sea level structure, DePasquale says. Stephanie Van Patten the houses on the Charles- rise. (Assumes the Provi- barrier beaches or salt And looking further into lives with her husband and town and Warwick coasts dence hurricane barrier marshes that are being whit- the future, he says there are their two daughters in an 10 are ill-suited to a future of East would be breached.) tled down over time. discussions about having the 1890 house that looks out higher seas. Two-thirds of Providence MASSACHUSETTS “When I saw some of those city buy up properties that over Mill Cove. The house homes in the study area in Cranston scenarios, my jaw hit the are most at-risk — akin to sits higher than much of each community have base- 195 ground,” DePasquale says what happened in the 1980s the surrounding neighbor- ments while only a small of the CERI maps. in the city’s Belmont Park hood, but the first floor was percentage in Charlestown Of the 34,479 structures neighborhood, where the still completely flooded on and a tiny fraction in War- 95 Barrington Warren in Warwick, 2,504 would federal government paid to Aug. 31, 1954 during the wick are elevated. receive some damage from move or tear down 61 homes 14.4-foot storm surge from The projections look sev- Warwick a 100-year storm, accord- prone to flooding from the Carol, which flattened much eral decades ahead because ing to the projections. With Pawtuxet River. of Conimicut. Narragansett most homes are built to last Bristol seven feet of sea level rise, A similar project on the Van Patten and her family that long. Taking such steps Bay that figure doubles to 5,304 coast could include both have no plans to move away now as elevating them can — 15 percent of the city’s vacant land and developed from the coast, but she wor- make them much more resil- 1 mile buildings. lots that have grown more ries about the next hurricane ient in the future. And the extent of damage vulnerable as waters have that will hit Warwick. But the maps can also to any structure increases risen and the shoreline has And she knows that higher apply to businesses and dramatically when higher eroded. seas will magnify the impact municipal projects, such as Source: Nicole Leporacci, University of R.I. THE PROVIDENCE JOURNAL seas are factored in. The “Do we rebuild on the coast of a surge. building roads or schools number of buildings that only to have them wiped out “We’re kind of expecting it and laying sewer lines, help- would sustain 50 percent or again?” DePasquale says. with sea level rise,” she says. ing to determine the level of essential information as Fugate says. “The question greater damage more than “We keep our basement investment in infrastructure Rhode Island’s coastal cities is, ‘What are they going to quadruples to 2,192 with On a sunny morning, as she unfinished for a reason.” that should be made in what and towns plan for a chang- do about it?’” seven feet of sea level rise. walks through Warwick’s could eventually be part of a ing climate, Fugate argues. The 50-percent bench- Riverview neighborhood, — akuffner flood zone. “It allows the community William DePasquale, director mark is important because Wenley Ferguson, director @providencejournal.com The CERI maps provide to see what the future is,” of planning in Warwick, says under CRMC rules, any of habitat restoration for (401) 277-7457