Energy, Data Cards and references November 2019.

20 Key data sets relating to Energy. References : Top 10s : Books;Videos;Websites;Articles Index. ❖ 20 Fact Cards on the energy question, relevant references used shown at slide bottom. Subject Subject 1 Fossil Fuel – Oil and Gas Kerogen Types 11 Financial/Economic Case for Fracking 2 Oil/Gas/Coal – Resource vs Reserves vs 12 Energy Return On Energy Invested. (EROEI), a Recoverable and uncertainty. non-economic appraisal of energy cost 3 Energy Sources – Non-renewable vs 13 Energy Extraction costs in EROEI terms, for all Renewable fuels on an equivalent basis. 4 Energy…Joules,KWh,Calories,BTUs. 14 Exponential rule of 70 5 Energy Content of Fuels 15 Nuclear Generation – issues and future 6 Conventional vs Non-Conventional Fuels 16 Peak conventional Oil 7 World Oil consumption/Day/Year 17 Peak conventional Gas 8 World Gas consumption/Day/Year 18 History of oil and gas use 9 Equivalent cost of production for Fuels. 19 King coal – facts and future 10 Some Oil & Gas Reserve Depletion curves 20 Solar Energy – facts and future

❖ Appendix 1 shows key references used in preparing the fracking presentation.

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 2 1. Fossil Fuels - Kerogen

❖The most commonly utilized scheme for classifying organic matter in sediments is based on the relative abundance of elemental carbon, oxygen, and hydrogen plotted graphically as the H/C and O/C ratio on a so called Van Krevelen diagram.

Organic carbon in the form of kerogen is the remnant of ancient life preserved in sedimentary rocks, after degradation by bacterial and chemical processes, and further modified by temperature, pressure, and time. The latter step, called thermal maturation, is a function of burial history (depth) and proximity to heat sources. Maturation provides the chemical reactions needed to give us gas, oil, bitumen, pyrobitumen, and graphite (pure carbon) that we find while drilling wells for petroleum. Source : Crain’s Petrophysical handbook, 2016

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 3 2. Oil/gas : Resources/Reserves/Recoverable

❖RESOURCES IN PLACE : A 'Mineral Resource' is a concentration or occurrence of material of intrinsic economic interest in or on the earth's crust, a proportion of which are in such such form, quality and quantity having reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction, forming a viable RESERVE. ❖RECOVERABLE RESERVES : A term used in natural resource industries to describe the amount of resources identified in a reserve that is technologically or economically feasible to extract. A new reserve can be discovered, but if the resource cannot be extracted by any known technological methods, then it would not be considered part of recoverable reserves. Recoverable reserves is also often called proved reserves. ❖ Oil and gas % of Resources recovered Depends on Tech used at the time. ❖ As little as 5% of reserve may be ECONOMICALLY recoverable. ❖ Recoverability depends on how locked in (tight) the hydrocarbon is to the strata bearing it. ❖ Exploit usually starts at 40% or less, then more tech lifts to 60% or more.

Source: US Energy Information Ass. 13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 4 3.Energy Resource,Renewable/Non-Renewable ❖90% of available, useable and economic energy on Earth is currently sourced from solar energy. ❖FOSSIL Fuels are ancient STORES of energy captured by photosynthesis in plants and stored in the earth’s crust. ❖Renewable Energies are ways of capturing present solar energy FLOWS in real time: Solar Panels; Solar Concentrators; Wind Energy; Bio Fuels; Wood coppicing; Ground Source Arrays; Hydro Electric plus others. ❖ Non-solar based fuels are: Nuclear Fission (Uranium); Deep Geothermal Heat Extraction; Wave Energy. ❖Nuclear FUSION looks like our only perpetual energy get out clause, though it is always 30 years away. WORLD CONSUMPTION OF FUELS 2016 Hydro Nuclear Wind,Solar etc 5% 5% 26 Billion 2% Barrels of Oil equivalent Coal 28%

Natural Gas 25%

Oil 35%

World consumption = 11,366 M.t.o.e, (gas 2,741). UK consumption = 213 M.tonnes oil equivalent 1 toe = 7.14 Barrels. = 32 Billion barrels of oil/yr. 13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 5 4. Energy…Joules,KWh,Calories,BTUs.

❖Definition. A Newton (N) is the S.I. unit of measure for force. One Newton is equal to 1 kilogram meter per second squared. In plain English, 1 Newton of force is the force required to accelerate an object with a mass of 1 kilogram 1 meter per second per second. ❖ The Joule, symbol J, is a derived unit of energy in the International System of Units. It is equal to the energy transferred (or work done) to an object when a force of one newton acts on that object in the direction of its motion through a distance of one metre (1 newton metre or N. m) ❖ 1 KiloWattHour (KWh, SI unit) equates to 3.6 Mega Joules. ❖ 1 British Thermal Unit (BTU, non SI unit) equates to 1,055 Joules. It is the energy required to raise 1 pint of water through 1 degree Fahrenheit. A 4 inch wooden match when burnt = 1 BTU. ❖ 1 KWH (SI unit) equates to 3,412 BTU. ❖ The therm (symbol thm) is a non-SI unit of heat energy equal to 100,000 (BTU). It is approximately the energy equivalent of burning 100 cubic feet (2.83 cubic metres) – often referred to as 1 CCF – of natural gas. ❖1 Calorie measures energy to raise 1 Gram of water by 1oc. 1 Calorie = 4.2 Joules. Note : 1 NUTRITIONAL CALORIE (NC) = 1,000 Calories = 4,200 Joules. 2,000 NC = 2.33 KWh). ❖Electrically, 1 joule = 1 Coulomb – Volt. A coulomb is an S.I unit of 1amp flowing for 1 Second. A joule therefore equates to 1 amp flowing for 1 second at 1 Volt. ❖Voltage (Volt) electric potential along a wire when an electric current of one ampere dissipates one watt (W) of power (W = J/s). A volt can be stated in SI base units as 1 V = 1 kg m2 s−3 A−1 (one kilogram meter squared per second cubed per ampere).

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 6 5. Energy Content of fuels ❖The most interchangeable unit of energy is the KiloWatt-hour (KWh). As at November 2019, one KWh costs around 13p from your electricity supplier. 1 KiloWatt is the rate of energy consumption. Fuel KWh per KWh per Density Kg/L KWh / tonne Measure litre kilogram (Water =1) oil equivalent 1 barrel 35 Imp.Gal. Diesel 10.70 9.11 0.851 11,746 42 US Gal. 1 Imp.Gal. 4.5461 Litre Petrol 9.40 6.93 0.737 12,211 1 Btu 1.055 K.Joules L.P.G 7.11 3.84 0.540 13,295 1 K.Watt.Hr 3.6 M.Joules Butane 7.85 3.92 0.500 1 therm 100k Btu Coal, Solid, 3.99 Equiv. 3.00 1.330 105.5 M.Joules Bituminous 1 atm 101 kPascals Dry Wood 1.20 Equiv. 4.00 0.330 1 bar 15 psi Dry Peat 1.96 Equiv. 4.91 0.400 1 Calorie 4,200 Joules Crude Oil 12.5 14.04 0.890 11,630 1 tonne oil 11,630 KWh Natural GAS 10.8 /cu.M 16.20 0.668Kg/cu.M 13,716 equivalent 1 T.O.E 7.4 Barrels ❖ Solar: in UK, 800W/sq.m, efficiency 17%, 7.5sqm/KW, generates 500KWh/yr. ❖ Nuclear: 360MWh / 1Kg of uranium at 33% efficiency in steam power plant. 1 ton of 16 Barrels ❖ Wind: Offshore 2.5MW turbine produces approx. 6,000 MWh energy/year. LNG 50k Cu. Ft.

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 7 6. Conventional vs Non-Conventional Fuels ❖Since the 1850ies Man has been sticking vertical straws in to reservoirs close to the surface. We are Carbon weevils. ❖There are no natural “gushers” any more. ❖Since 1948 we have used low pressure fracking to enhance recovery. ❖Re-injection of water (Sea water often used). Recovery Improves. ❖Saudi Arabia = biggest concentration of NC fuels. Source : Prof. Peter Styles presentation 2015. ❖Surveys have identified 80% of the conventional resources, reckoned to be around 4 Trillion Barrels of oil equivalent. We have extracted over 50% of those viable resources now. ❖There is no estimate of Worldwide Non-conventional fossil fuels, we are on a hunt! ❖Non-conventional fuels often require extreme recovery techniques in very hostile places, eg 4 miles below the sea floor or inside the arctic circle. ❖Non conventional sources need oil price over $80/barrel to justify exploration and recovery. Source : Understanding Non-conventional oil : Carnegie Endowment report, May 2012 13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 8 7. Oil production/consumption, world & UK

World Fracking reserves, see slide 6 in main pack.

❖ UK oil production, 1.42 Mbpd in 2014. ❖ UK oil from N.sea declining @ 6%/yr ❖ Advanced recovery techniques in N.sea may lift recovery %. ❖ World production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2005. ❖ Conventional Gas peaks around 2025. MYTH ALERT! ALL these numbers are for GROSS useable energy recovered! - See DC12 for EROEI

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 9 8. Gas production/consumption – world & UK. ❖ Top 20 Gas producing countries in the world. ❖ Consumption

UK Gas : 3.2BCu.ft/Yr UK Gas Sources: North Sea conventional : 43% Pipelines, (Russian gas) via Europe 44% Liquid Natural Gas Ships (Qatar) 13%.

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 10 9. Equivalent Financial cost of production (2016)

Hydrogen Cost/Barrel Gas $25 $49

All numbers EXCLUDE Financing costs Nuclear $93.50/Barrel (Watt committee report) Bio-Ethanol $59.50/ Barrel

Solar 2013 $20/Barrel (FT)

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 11 10. Some Oil & Gas Reserve Depletion Curves ❖Depletion curves show a linear decline rate, down to a “long-tail” low rate. ❖Conventional Oil/Gas usually around 6%/annum, Fracked gas 80% first year, 20% to 5yrs. ❖Can apply the “Rule of 70” to get the half life of a source (70/decline%). See Data Card 14.

World Crude Reserves ❖ U.S. E.A, 3G Barrels ❖ Mean Case 1.5GB. Extraction rate. ❖ Max rate 40Bn/Yr ❖ 32Bn Barrels/Yr now

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 12 11. Financial/Economic Case for Fracking ❖Considered in parliament and paper published in mid 2014 (83 pages). Generally positive towards the idea. No Data on Economic Impacts, conjecture and U.S. examples. ❖50% of fracking firms in UK owned by overseas corporations. ❖INEOS reckons there is over $1 Trillion of recoverable gas in the UK. This could raise “Billions of pounds of tax revenue for the UK”, based on the industry making a profit. ❖Working on the assumption that 4,000 horizontal and fracked wells are drilled from 2016 to 2032, Ernst & Young have calculated that developing UK shale gas would mean £33bn worth of investment in the supply chain. ❖Chemical industry investment to use the gas could add $9Bn to UK annual GDP.

Data Extracted from INEOS/E&Y Report 13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 13 12. Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI)

In physics, energy economics, and ecological energetics, energy returned on energy invested (EROEI or ERoEI); or energy return on investment (EROI), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy used to obtain that energy resource. It is a distinct measure from energy efficiency as it does not measure the primary energy inputs to the system, only usable energy. A fuel or energy source must have an EROEI ratio of at least 3:1 to be considered viable as a prominent fuel or energy source.

When the EROEI of a resource is less than or equal to one, that energy source becomes a net "energy sink", and can no longer be used as a source of energy, but depending on the system might be useful for energy storage (for example a battery).

❖ CRITICAL DISTINCTION! The EROEI is a measure of the energy cost of using an energy source. EROEI is NOT a financial measure of viability. It is the prime driver of the cost of exploitation.

In late 2016, the oil price hovers around $50/Barrel, the cost of NEW marginal resource production is around $80. This is because we are beyond conventional oil (EROEI 15-20 and above) and now exploiting more difficult to get at resources with EROEI around 8.0.

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 14 13. EROEI (Net energy)-common energy sources.

Rank US EROEI FUEL 1 100.0 Hydro Oil Production represents the energy used in Oil Production 2 80.0 Coal discovery and development of the source and E.R.O.E.I 3 75.0 Nuclear - Centrifuge establishment of infrastructure for oil 1919 1200 4 35.0 Oil Imports 1990 extraction. 1950 100 5 32.4 Geothermal WITH water heating. 1972 20 6 30.0 Oiland Gas 1970 1982 8 Viable resources are becoming much more 7 20.0 Oil Production 1972 2000 17 8 18.0 Oil imports 2005 difficult to identify, research, test drill, verify 2005 11 9 18.0 Wind and develop to the point of industrialisation. 2007 5 10 14.5 Oiland Gas 2005 Many more wells are coming up dry. 2013 4.5 11 14.0 Fracking Gas 2013 12 12.0 Oil imports 2007 ❖ Solar panel efficiencies have increased by 60% in 10 years. 13 11.0 Photovoltaic 2013 A new development suggests a 300% increase in a few yrs. 14 10.0 Natural Gas 2005 15 10.0 Nuclear - Diffusion (obsolete) ❖ Gas Fracking technologies have advanced rapidly over the 16 9.5 Geothermal Without Water Heating 2000s, especially with the advent of advanced horizontal 17 8.0 Current Oil Discoveries drilling techniques. 18 6.8 Photovoltaic 2000 ❖ USA data suggests any EREOEI below 3.0 makes the 19 5.0 Ethanol Sugar Cane resource non-viable as an exploit. The financial numbers 20 5.0 Shale oil do not work at that level. Europe looks about 5.0. 21 4.5 Oil Production 2013 ❖ As effectiveness and efficiency of non-renewables has 22 3.0 Bitumen Tar Sands 23 1.9 Solar Flat Plate increased with learning and development, they have been 24 1.6 Solar Collector progressively climbing the table. As fossil fuels drop. 25 1.3 Biodiesel ❖ Look at COAL! Scrape it off the land, burn it. Simple. No 26 1.3 Ethanol Corn wonder China has built so many coal power stations. ❖Data source : Gail Tverberg www.ourfiniteworld and wikipedia

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 15 14. Exponentiation and the rule of 70 ❖Exponential growth is a phenomenon that occurs when the growth rate of the value of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value, resulting in its growth with time being an exponential function. In either exponential growth or exponential decay, the ratio of the rate of change of the quantity to its current size remains constant over time. Example: Compound interest on your savings.

The formula for exponential growth of a variable x at the Natural Example 1: Oil Fields growth rate r, as time t goes on in discrete intervals (that is, A North Sea oil field output decays at at integer times 0, 1, 2, 3, ...), is: around 6% per annum. This is usual for where x is the value of x at time 0. 0 conventional oil wells. Which means An example: output will halve in 70/6 = 11.6 years. £100 (X0) savings now, in an account paying 5% (r) interest (You wish!), over 10 years (10), is worth £162 at the end. Natural Example 2: Population (7.7Bn) Doubling and Halving time. Rule of 69.3 (70 good enough!) Worldwide population has grown at It is often useful to know how long it takes for a quantity to around 2% per annum. Doubles every 35 double or halve its size, given a % change rate. years (until we run out of resource). Mathematically this is expressed as: Also consider: Where T is doubling time, r is % and ln() is the natural ❖ Tripling/Third Time : Rule of 110. logarithm function. So for a 1% rate: ❖ Assumes time intervals are equal, growth is therefore geometric in nature. T = 0.69314 / 0.00995 = 69.662 - years/seconds/months? If r = 5, the doubling (or halving time) = 14.2 intervals. References : ❖ Primarily Wikipedia Rule of 70 : to find doubling or halving time of any ❖ Expert on Subject : DR Albert A. Bartlett exponential function, divide 70 by the % rate of change. You Tube video and published papers

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 16 15. Nuclear Generation – Issues and Future ❖Nuclear fusion is always “30 years away”, a tantalising hope. Stuck with Fission for now. ❖Uranium ore is depleting and will be competed for/ be too expensive at some point. ❖We have known where it is and how much of it for a long time (map on right from 2001). ❖1KG provides 360MWh in a steam driven plant. 3 Tons used per Gigawatt Hour. The UK generates 40GW = 2,880 tons per day, realistically 17% of mix = 480 tonnes/day. ❖There are 2,516 Million tonnes recoverable. ❖Nuclear power capacity has risen to about 372.5 gigawatts worldwide in 2012, with 437 active nuclear power reactors across 31 Uranium is 1.6x denser than lead countries. Usually operated as Base load. Main resource – oxides aka “Yellowcake” ❖As base load, daily consumption = 27,000 tons. 10 Million tons per year. Reactor costs around $12Bn to Build. ❖Reserves will last 251 years provided it is all Reactor costs $9Bn to decommission. recovered and useable. Assuming CURRENT ore density! Operational Life around 30 years. ❖Uranium Ore density is down below 0.2% now. Viable at $80/Kilogram 7 years to build, PLUS planning and approvals. ❖Note, a LOT of oil and gas are needed to It takes 1 to 3 days to start up a reactor. recover and process the ore. 13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 17 16. Peak Conventional Oil - 2005 ❖King Hubbert first defined oil field depletion profile in late ‘50ies. US Peaked in 1972. ❖CONVENTIONAL oil (Cheap Oil) peaked and plateaued in 2005ish. 6%/annum decline.

60 years On!

❖ Conventional oil fields follow this curve. ❖ Advancing recovery techniques extend the tail. ❖ Unconventional lifts the total, cost is the issue.

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 18 17. Peak Conventional Gas – 2020 – Ultimately ?

❖Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR) estimate - 18,000 Trillion Cubic Feet ❖Jean Laherrere’s & Steve Mohr estimate 13,000 TCF left to go. Hubbert Linearisation model - Model 11,000 TCF (using 1995 to 2014 data). ❖Total CONVENTIONAL gas output to date - 4,200 TCF, Up to 11,000 TCF URR. Conventional Sources All Sources worldwide

Shale CBM 7,000 2,500

❖Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR) exploitation models suggest roll over in 2020 to 2030. ❖Gazprom have a “World Natural Gas Shock Model” that forecasts this probable roll off at a 4% annual extraction rate (current consumption rate). ❖Optimistic URR of 26,000 TCF, no political disruption, improving technology forecasts a roll over as late as 2040, before decline starts. Jean Laherrere is worth reading on the subject, heavily published on reserves, 1992 – current. www.oilcrisis.com 13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 19 18. History of Oil extraction and use

World Biggest Fields

1st Oil “well” 1853, steady growth. 1900 sees real take off in oil fields. Gushers were common in late 1800’s No gushers these Days!!

❖ Real exploitation and growth from 1948. ❖ Prior to this production < 10MB/day. ❖ By 1960, 20MB/day. ❖ “Conventional Oil” until early 2000s. ❖ Last 15 years – Tar sands, Fracking, CBM DeepWater drilling, Horizontal Drilling.

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 20 19. King Coal – Formation and a UK Future? ❖Formed in the Carconiferous period (Means “coal bearing”), around 320M Tears ago. ❖More recent accumulations from the tertiary era (60Myrs) form Lignites, containing volatile matter, or Colombian coal due to high heat from plate tectonics. ❖Peat is uncooked coal. Sub-bituminous coal 70% carbon, Bituminous 80%, Anthracite 95%. ❖Northern England has coal in the Pennine Basin, formed in the Westphalian stage of the carboniferous. ❖2014 – UK vast coal reserves ❖Under North Sea in 20 layers. ❖Up to 20 Trillion Tons.

❖Coal Bed Methane? ❖In-Situ Extraction?

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 21 20. Solar Energy Facts and Future. ❖Renewable energy collected by different methods such as solar heating, photovoltaics, solar thermal energy, solar architecture and artificial photosynthesis. ❖Sun Delivers 1Kw per square metre in full sunlight, at midday in the UK. London 0.52 Kwh and 4.2Kwh per square metre in December and July respectively. ❖Prime method of collection, solar voltaic panels on rooves, Germany Mad for it! ❖Total capacity 40GW. ❖6.9% of electricity in 2014, growing rapidly. ❖Installed in last 10 yrs. ❖UK, 22GW in 2019, now generate 18% UK Energy.

❖ Fluctuating nature of renewable energy causes grid issues. ❖ UK grid needs completely new architecture to cope with change. ❖ “Smart Grid”, local generation and distribution + Storage.

13/11/2019 Fracking Update - 2019 No. 22 Appendix 1 : Key references for presentation ❖ Energy is a vast subject, the following list is not definitive but a guide. Books: No. Title Author ISBN Key Pages 1 Saudi America 2018 Bethany Mclean 2 2005 Matthew R.Simmons 3 The Limits to Growth 1972 Donella H Meadows 4 30yr Update - Limits to growth 2002 Club of Rome 5 The Frackers 2014 Gregory Zuckerman 6 The Real Cost of Fracking 2014 Michelle Bamberger and Robert Oswald 7 Powerdown 2004 8 High Noon for natural gas 2004 Julian Darley (Richard Heinberg endorsed) 9 (The View from Hubbert’s Kenneth S. Deffeyes peak) 2005 10 2009 Morgan Downey

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