1. Introduction 4 2. The key challenges 5 2.1 Climate change and natural resources 5 2.1.1 Network resilience 7 2.1.2 Peak oil 8 2.2 Global economic uncertainty 9 3. Cornwall in context 10 3.1 Our geography 10 3.1.1 Our towns 11 3.1.2 Rural settlement pattern 12 3.1.3 Peripherality 12 3.2 Our economy 14 3.2.1 Economic disparity 15 3.2.2 Car ownership 16 3.2.3 Tourism 17 3.3 Our demography 19 3.3.1 Future population growth 19 3.3.2 Ageing population 19 3.3.3 Health 21 3.4 Our environment 23 3.4.1 Minerals 24 3.4.2 Waste 24 3.4.3 Heritage 25 3.5 Travel and transport 26 3.5.1.1 Our road network 26 3.5.1.2 Our rail network 27 3.5.1.3 Our bus network 28 3.5.1.4 Our ferries and airports 29 3.5.1.5 Our walking and cycling network 30 3.5.2 Travel behaviour 31 3.5.2.1 Travel to work 31 3.5.2.2 Travel to healthcare 37 3.5.2.3 Travel to education 38 3.5.2.4 Travel to retail 41 3.5.3 The impacts of travel 42 3.5.3.1 The growth in road traffic 42 3.5.3.2 Traffic flows 42 3.5.3.3 Current congestion patterns 43 3.5.3.4 The cost of congestion 45 3.5.3.5 Road safety 46 3.5.3.6 Speeding 48 3.5.3.7 Crime 48 3.5.3.8 Air pollution 49 3.5.3.9 Noise pollution 50 3.5.3.10 Light pollution 50 1 Figures and tables Figure 2.1 The key challenges 5 Figure 2.2 Breakdown of Cornwall’s transport related emissions 6 Figure 2.3 Contribution to climate change by mode 6 Figure 2.4 CO2 emissions associated with UK food transport 7 Figure 2.5 Areas at very significant risk of coastal flooding 8 Figure 3.1 Cornwall in relation to south west England 10 Figure 3.2 Cornwall’s settlement pattern 11 Figure 3.3 South west urban/rural areas 12 Figure 3.4 Travel time to major urban centers by mode 13 Figure 4.1 Cornwall economic performance relative to other areas in 14 England and Wales Figure 4.2 Areas of multiple deprivation within most deprived 20% in 15 England Figure 4.3 Breakdown of car ownership in Cornwall 16 Figure 4.4 Percentage oh households without access to a car 16 Figure 4.5 Mode of travel to Cornwall by visitors 17 Figure 4.6 Tourist travel to Cornwall by mode 1993 – 2008/9 18 Figure 5.1 People of retirement age 20 Figure 5.2 Population percentage increase by age 2007 – 2031 20 Figure 5.3 Percentage of obese adults in Cornwall 21 Figure 5.4 Childhood obesity in year 6 children 22 Figure 6.1 Areas identified as environmentally important 23 Figure 6.2 Cornwall’s ecological footprint 24 Figure 6.3 Cornwall’s world heritage sites 25 Figure 7.1 Cornwall’s road network 26 Figure 7.2 Cornwall’s railway network 27 Figure 7.3 Cornwall’s bus network 28 Figure 7.4 Local ports and airports 29 Figure 7.5 Multi use trail network 30 Figure 8.1 Car – the usual mode of transport for specific journey types 31 Figure 8.2 Travel to work flows 2001 32 Figure 8.3 Bodmin western corridor travel to work flows 33 Figure 8.4 Camborne/Pool/Redruth travel to work flows 33 Figure 8.5 Falmouth travel to work flows 34 Figure 8.6 Newquay travel to work flows 34 Figure 8.7 Penzance eastern corridor travel to work flows 35 Figure 8.8 St Austell western corridor travel to work flows 35 Figure 8.9 Truro travel to work flows 36 Figure 8.10 Plymouth travel to work flows 36 Figure 8.2.1 Total hospital appointments 2009 37 Figure 8.2.2 Public transport access to Treliske and Derriford Hospitals 38 Figure 8.3.1 Post 16 education establishments 38 Figure 8.3.2 Primary and secondary school travel by mode 2007 - 2010 39 Figure 8.3.3 Average distance travelled to school in Cornwall 39 Figure 8.3.4 Potential for walking and cycling to school 40 Figure 8.4.1 Travel to retail 41 Figure 9.1 Traffic growth – Cornwall and national comparison 1970 – 42 2009 Figure 9.2 Annual average daily traffic flows 2008 43 2 Figure 9.3 Average daily traffic congestion 44 Figure 9.4 Summer daily traffic congestion 45 Figure 9.5 Traffic growth and road collisions 46 Figure 9.6 KSI by proportion of total accidents 2009 47 Figure 9.7 Areas where speeding was identified as a priority 48 Figure 9.8 Crime data for Cornwall 2009/10 49 Table 2.1 The potential impacts of climate change upon the transport 7 network 3 Evidence Base 1. Introduction This document presents the comprehensive evidence base which has informed the development of the Connecting Cornwall strategy and the first Implementation Plan. Understanding the many challenges and changes both, now and over the next 20 years has been vital to the development of the Connecting Cornwall strategy, and informing what should be delivered on the ground. A review of this evidence base will be undertaken to inform the updates of the strategy which will, as a minimum, take place with the development of a new Implementation Plan. This document covers the following; Key challenges – These challenges are both global and local and have been fundamental in shaping the Connecting Cornwall strategy. They can be summarised as: Climate change. The economy. Demographic change. Cornwall in context – this covers the following areas: Geography. Settlement pattern. Economy. Tourism. Environment. Travel and transport. The impacts of travel. Recognition of the ongoing needs of partners and the local communities is critical to the development of Connecting Cornwall. The strategy needs to support our communities and the services of education, social, health, business and leisure. A separate report covering the consultation on the strategy has been produced; this can be found at www.cornwall.gov.uk/connectingcornwall 4 2. Key Challenges Figure 2.1 summarises the key challenges. They are covered in more detail throughout sections 2 and 3. The sections below focus on the key global challenges impacting on Cornwall and section 3 covers the local challenges and opportunities. Fig 2.1 Key challenges 2.1. Climate change and natural resources Climate change is a global problem, with significant impacts on the local scale. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in order to prevent catastrophic and irreversible climate change, we must limit the rise in temperature to no more than 2ºC. It is widely acknowledged that in order to achieve this global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by 80% by 2050 (1990 baseline). Nationally transport contributes 21% of domestic emissions to the UK total. Within the transport sector, car associated emissions are by far the largest contributor to the overall total, 58%1. Cumulatively, car trips of less than 10 miles account for 40% of the United Kingdom’s domestic transport carbon emissions, with trips in the 2 to 5 mile category contributing 40% of these emissions2. In Cornwall, the situation is even worse with 27% of the total emissions by community sector attributed to transportation3, of this 63% is attributed to car travel. Road based freight movement is also a significant contributor to Cornwall’s transport emissions, combined diesel LGV, HGV and petrol LGV account for 30% of total transport related emissions. A breakdown of Cornwall’s transport emissions is shown in figure 2.2. 1 Department for Transport, ‘Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future’ (2009). 2 Department for Transport, ‘Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon Making Sustainable Local Transport Happen’ (2011). 3 CAMCO, ‘Cornwall Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment’ (2009). 5 Fig 2.2 Breakdown of Cornwall’s transport emissions By mode the private car is widely recognised as being a key contributor to climate change as demonstrated in figure 2.3. In Cornwall the reliance on the private car as the main form of transport is high; this is underlined by the fact that from 1999 – 2009 the number of cars and light goods vehicles registered in Cornwall has risen by 30%. Fig 2.3 Contribution to climate change by mode Transporting our food around the globe burns fossil fuels and contributes to climate change. The move away from food shopping at small local shops to shopping at supermarkets has added to the climate change impact of our food. These trends have led to an increase in the distance that our food travels known as ‘food miles’ (illustrated by figure 2.4), and an increase in associated emissions. 6 Fig. 2.4 CO2 emissions associated with UK food transport (2002) 2.1.1 Network resilience Cornwall, due to its coastal position, will become increasingly vulnerable to the predicted impacts associated with climate change. Sea level rise is just one example; predictions indicate a 9-16cm rise by the 2020s and 20-80cm by the 2080s4; such rise would threaten many of our coastal communities and infrastructure. Our current transport system was designed and built for local climate and weather conditions using historical temperature and rainfall data. Predicted temperature and weather variations due to climate change mean that our existing infrastructure will become vulnerable. The potential impacts of climate change on the way in which we travel are wide ranging and potentially catastrophic.