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Downloaded for Personal Non‐Commercial Research Or Study, Without Prior Permission Or Charge Aghlani, Sasan (2017) The nuclear policies of Iran : Islam and strategic thinking in the Islamic Republic. PhD thesis. SOAS University of London. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/29804 Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non‐commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this thesis, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full thesis title", name of the School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination. The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic Mr Sasan Aghlani Department of Politics and International Studies SOAS, University of London Thesis submitted for the degree of PhD 2017 Declaration for SOAS PhD thesis I have read and understood regulation 17.9 of the Regulations for students of the SOAS, University of London concerning plagiarism. I undertake that all the material presented for examination is my own work and has not been written for me, in whole or in part, by any other person. I also undertake that any quotation or paraphrase from the published or unpublished work of another person has been duly acknowledged in the work which I present for examination. Signed: ____________________________ Date: ___30/01/2017______ 1 The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic Abstract The thesis follows a multidisciplinary approach, and adopts a critical methodology – rooted in techniques of discourse analysis and genealogy – in an effort to draw attention to the problems with continuing to assess Iran’s strategic preferences within the parameters of ethnocentric paradigms of strategy. In this regard, it offers a critique of ontologies found in IR, strategic theory, and areas of Iranian Studies, and reconsiders the impact of Islam on Iran’s nuclear trajectory based on a critical approach to understanding military jurisprudence from the perspectives of hermeneutics and epistemology. This thesis deconstructs some of the common portrayals of Iran’s nuclear policies presented in today’s academic and policy discourses. Specifically, it focuses on how the prospect of Iranian policies being guided by religious scholars is narrated by experts and commentators that confine Iranian strategic agency within one of two categories: Islamic fanaticism, or secular realism. Both of these approaches are situated within specific epistemological boundaries which the author critiques as the ‘deterrence parameter’. In addition to deconstructing the prevailing narratives and discourses surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme – and the epistemic parameters which discipline them – the author offers an Islamic framework as an alternative lens for analysing Iran’s policies towards nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) if we are to assume that religion does have some impact on Iranian policy-making. This framework is formed of three interrelated levels: Qur’anic ontology, secondary sources, and theology. It also draws from previous instances where Muslim theologians and jurists have confronted weapons capable of mass destruction in light of concepts such as maslahah (public interest). The author applies this framework in assessing the verdicts of Islamic scholars on nuclear weapons and other 2 The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic WMD in an attempt to provide a counter-narrative for where Iran’s strategic preferences emerge from and where they may go in the future. 3 The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic Contents Abstract ……………………………………………………….………….………. p. 2 Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………………………… p. 7 Introduction - (Mis)reading Iran and its Nuclear Programme …………………..…………. p. 8 - Thesis Rationale and Methodology ………………………………….….….. p. 20 - Hypothesis and Normative Framework ……………………………………. p. 23 - Primary Research and Fieldwork …………………………………...……… p. 28 - Literatures Reviewed ..…………………………………………….……….. p. 30 - Thesis Objectives & Chapter Outline ………………………………...……. p. 31 Chapter One – Contemporary Islamic Views on Nuclear Weapons and WMD Introduction ………………………………………………………………….. p. 39 - Nuclear Weapons as an Ethical and Religious Problem ……………..……… p. 40 - Quietism and the Birth of Iran’s Nuclear Programme ………….………….... p. 44 - Clerical Views …………………………………………………………...…... p. 54 Conclusion ………………………………………………………...…………. p. 72 Chapter Two – Narrating the Nuclear Strategies of the Iranian ‘Other’: Do the Mullahs Love their Children Too? Introduction …………………………………………………………………... p. 74 - Representations of the ‘Mullahs’ …………………………………………….. p. 78 - ‘Mad Mullahs’ and the Problem of Deterrence …………..…………………... p. 82 - Orientalism and Institutional Analysis ………………………………...……... p. 88 4 The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic - The Shi’i Penchant for Martyrdom ……………………………...…………… p. 92 - The Twelfth Imam and the End of the World ………………………..………. p. 97 - Trusting the Supreme Leader’s Fatwa …………………………….…………. p. 101 Conclusion …………………………………………………………….…….... p. 108 Chapter Three – The Limits of Realism: Iran as a ‘Like Unit’ in the Deterrence Parameter Introduction ……………………………………………………….………… p. 111 - Narrating Nuclear Strategy and Proliferation Trends …………………….… p. 116 - Imagining the Other’s Strategic Preferences ………………………….….… p. 123 - Ethnocentrism and ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’ in the Deterrence Parameter ……………………………………………………………..……….……….. p. 139 - Narrating Iran’s Nuclear Intentions through Realism: More Heat than Light ………………………………………………………………………... p. 149 Conclusion ……………………….………………………………………… p. 164 Chapter Four – Weapons and Strategies Capable of Mass Destruction within an Islam Framework for Analysis Introduction …………………………………………………………..……. p. 168 - First Level of Analysis: Qur’anic Ontologies of Warfare …………...…….. p. 173 - Second Level of Analysis: Secondary Sources of Islamic Law …….…...… p. 187 - Third Level of Analysis: Theology ………………………………...……… p. 196 - Referent Objects of Security and Securitising Actors in Shi’ism …..……... p. 200 - Pragmatism in Islamic Law: Usul al-Fiqh and Maslahah ………….…...… p. 207 - Cases: Weapons, Tactics, and Strategies Associated with Mass Destruction ………………………………………………………………………….….. p. 216 5 The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic Conclusion ………………………………………………………….…..…. p. 236 Chapter Five – The Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Policies beyond the Deterrence Parameter Introduction ……………………………………………………………….. p. 239 - Islamic First Principles on Nuclear Weapons …………………………….. p. 241 - Maslahah and the ‘State of Exception’ …………………………..……….. p. 244 - Deference to the Wali al-Faqih …………………………………………… p. 252 - Analogical Reasoning ……………………………………………..………. p. 265 - Tactical and Strategic Modernity …………………………………..……… p. 268 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………….... p. 278 Chapter Six – Conclusions …………………………..………….………….……. p. 282 - Contributions and Further Research ………………………………………. p. 289 Appendix …………………………………………………………………………. p. 293 - Glossary of Arabic and Farsi Terms …………………………..…………. p. 293 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………….…….. p. 296 6 The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic Acknowledgements First and foremost I wish to thank my wife Sophia for her support and patience throughout my doctoral studies. I am also grateful for the guidance of my supervision committee at SOAS – Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Stephen Chan, and Matthew Nelson – and the careful advice of my examiners, Sanjay Seth and Kamran Matin. For their time, advice and kind assistance, I am indebted to the following: Patricia Lewis, Claire York, Heather Williams, James de Waal, Benoît Pelopidas, Mohammad Ali Shabani, Jan-Peter Hartung, Saied Reza Ameli, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Justyna Nedza, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Laleh Khalili, Robert Gleave, Stephen Hopgood, Piers Purdy, Adrian Hatfield, Beyza Unal, Sheikh Saeed Bahmanpour, and Mohammad El-Sayed Bushra. For the inspiration: Jeremy Soule. 7 The Nuclear Policies of Iran: Islam and Strategic Thinking in the Islamic Republic Introduction *** [I]ntelligence failure is inevitable, and intelligence organizations should therefore investigate and try to understand those phenomena that inductive logic cannot describe.1 *** (Mis)reading Iran and its Nuclear Programme According to a US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) in 2007, the Islamic Republic of Iran possessed neither a nuclear weapon nor an active nuclear weapons programme.2 In December 2015, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that while it believed Iran had engaged in "a range" of experimental activities related to nuclear explosive devices before 2009 – the precise time that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu painted as a “hinge of history” for preventing Iranian nuclear weapons development3 – "these activities did not advance beyond feasibility and scientific studies".4 Yet the logic that absence of evidence does not equate to
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