The Northeast Asia Mountain Glaciers in the Near Future by AOGCM Scenarios
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The Cryosphere, 4, 435–445, 2010 www.the-cryosphere.net/4/435/2010/ The Cryosphere doi:10.5194/tc-4-435-2010 © Author(s) 2010. CC Attribution 3.0 License. The Northeast Asia mountain glaciers in the near future by AOGCM scenarios M. D. Ananicheva1, A. N. Krenke1, and R. G. Barry2 1Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119017, Russia 2National Snow and Ice Data Center, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA Received: 31 March 2010 – Published in The Cryosphere Discuss.: 18 May 2010 Revised: 13 September 2010 – Accepted: 18 September 2010 – Published: 6 October 2010 Abstract. We studied contrasting glacier systems in con- 1 Introduction tinental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky) mountain ranges, located in the region of the lowest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere at the boundary of Atlantic and Pa- Our approach involves the projection of (1) equilibrium line cific influences – and maritime ones (Kamchatka Peninsula) altitude (ELA) because at this level it is possible to recon- - under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a sim- struct accumulation by calculated ablation due to their equal- ple projection method to assess the main parameters of these ity here (e.g. Braithwaite and Raper, 2007), and (2) glacier glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this, con- terminus altitude because this is correlated with ELA change structed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and (e.g. Chinn et al., 2005). The projected ELA can be obtained ablation) based both on meteorological data for the 1950- as the intersection of the accumulation and ablation balance 1990s (baseline period) and ECHAM4 for 2049-2060 (pro- profiles for glacier systems (regions). To project glacier jected period) are used, the latter - as a climatic scenario. change, not only in the case of individual glaciers but also The observations and scenarios were used to define the re- for groups of them (glacier systems), is an important goal in cent and future equilibrium line altitude and glacier terminus global environmental change studies (e.g. Dowdeswell and altitude level for each glacier system as well as areas and Hagen, 2004). The term “glacier system” is considered as a balance components. The altitudinal distributions of ice ar- set of glaciers united by their common links with the environ- eas were determined for present and future, and they were ment: the same mountain system or archipelago location and used for prediction of glacier extent versus altitude in the sys- similar atmospheric circulation patterns. The glaciers are re- tem taking into account the correlation between the ELA and lated to each other usually by parallel links from atmospheric glacier-terminus level change. We tested two hypotheses of inputs and topographical forms to hydrological and topo- ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers - graphical outputs, and demonstrate common spatial regular- “linear” and “non-linear”. The results are estimates of the ities of glacier regime and other features. For each glacier possible changes of the areas and morphological structure system the balance scheme (accumulation and ablation verti- of northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance cal profiles) is constructed from climate data.Here we present characteristics for 2049-2060. Glaciers in the southern parts a simple method for projection of change of the glacier sys- of northeastern Siberia and those covering small ranges in tems’ parameters and the application of this method for the Kamchatka will likely disappear under the ECHAM4 sce- region of northeastern Asia. We have chosen to study the nario; the best preservation of glaciers will be on the highest continental glacier systems of northeastern Siberia-Orulgan volcanic peaks of Kamchatka. Finally, we compare charac- (a part of Verkhonyansky Range in Fig. 1), the Suntar- teristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier Khayata and Chersky ranges – and the maritime glacier sys- systems under global warming. tems of Kamchatka-Sredinniy and Kronotsky ranges, and the Kluchevskaya, Tolbechek, Chiveluch volcano groups (see Fig. 1 and Table 1). Observations of both these glacier regimes are available only for one or two benchmark glaciers (Glacier 31) in north- Correspondence to: M. Ananicheva eastern Siberia (Ananicheva, 2006) and Kozelsky Glacier (maria [email protected]) (data published in Fluctuations of Glaciers, vol. V, VI, VII), Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 436 M. D. Ananicheva et al.: The Northeast Asia mountain glaciers in the near future by AOGCM scenarios Fig. 1. Map of the study region. so we used data from the USSR Glacier Inventory1 (1965– dendritic glaciers of the Chersky Range and specific volcano- 1982), also in the electronic glacier inventory in NSIDC, glacier complexes of Kamchatka (Fig. 1). Boulder, CO, which was based on aerial photography of the glaciers (Orulgan Range – in 1958, 1963; Suntar-Khayata 2.1 The Suntar-Khayata Range Mountains – 1945, 1959, and 1970; Chersky Range – 1970s; Kamchatka – 1950). The Suntar-Khayata Range serves as a watershed between the river basins of the Aldan and the Indigirka tributaries Northeastern Siberia has undergone both winter and, to entering the Arctic Ocean. Its elevations reach almost a lesser extent, summer warming since around 1960 un- 3000 m a.s.l. It is one of the largest centers of present glacier- til present, as well as the intensification of cyclone activ- ization in northeastern Russia – about 195 glaciers cover ity and precipitation (Ananicheva et al., 2003; IPCC, 2007). 163 km2 (Ananicheva et al., 2006). The main source of Due to these climatic trends, the proportion (and amount) snowfall for the glacier systems is moisture that has been of solid precipitation here has been increasing (Ananicheva brought from the Pacific and the Sea of Okhotsk, in particular and Krenke, 2005). Significant warming is also observed in in spring, summer and early autumn. For the northern glacier Kamchatka (Shmakin and Popova, 2006). massif of the range, Arctic air invasions are also significant in winter which bring anticyclone weather. 2 Glaciers studied 2.2 The Chersky Range mountain system Glacier regions (systems) analysed in this paper represent The Chersky mountain system occupies the inner part of a wide spectrum of morphology and mass exchange types northeastern Siberia located to the north of the Suntar- – from small cirque glaciers of the Orulgan range to large Khayata Range and closer to the Aleutian Low, in the area of prevailing moisture supply from the Pacific Ocean. There- fore, the overall ELA here is lower: 2150–2180 m against 1We used the following parts of the USSR Glacier Inventory: vol. 17 (Lena-Indigirka basins region), issue 2, part 2 (Orulgan), 2350–2400 m a.s.l. in the Suntar-Khayata Range. Accord- 1972, 43 pp.; issue 3, part 1, issue 5, part 2, issue 7, parts 2 and 3, ing to the latest assessments, the Chersky Range contains 2 1981, 88 pp.; vol. 19 (North-East), part 3, 1981; vol. 20 (Kam- about 300 glaciers, which cover 113 km , (Ananicheva et al., chatka), parts 2–4, 1969, 74 pp. 2006). The Suntar-Khayata and Chersky mountains are lo- ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ The electronic version of the inventory is created in 1990s, it can cated within 60 N–70 N, 138 E–150 E. be found at the NSIDC, Boulder, CO: Glacier Inventory – http: //nsidc.org/data/g01130.html The Cryosphere, 4, 435–445, 2010 www.the-cryosphere.net/4/435/2010/ M. D. Ananicheva et al.: The Northeast Asia mountain glaciers in the near future by AOGCM scenarios 437 2.3 Orulgan Ridge parameters) and the relation of the ELA and glacier termini elevation level under climate-change scenarios. The glaciers of Orulgan Range (Verkoyansky Range) were The method is consistent with both GCM and palaeo- first mapped in the 1940s. The present glacierization is analogue scenarios. We chose the ECHAM4/OPYC3– located along the main watershed line, mainly on leeward GGa11, scenario, which predicts rather intensive warming by (eastward-facing) slopes in concave relief forms – in two ar- 2100 in comparison with other AOGCMs: thus we evaluate eas stretching 112 km and 25 km north to south. Glaciers of the maximum likely reduction of the glaciers. The model is a Orulgan (basically cirque and hanging glacier morphologi- spectral one with 19 atmospheric layers, and the results used cal types); about 80 glaciers covering 20 km2 exist on ac- here derive from experiments performed with spatial resolu- count of climate since the topography is relatively low. The tion T42, which corresponds to about 2.8◦ longitude/latitude modern glaciation is the only one in the continental-climate- resolution. The level of CO2 is ∼554 ppmv (Bacher et al., influenced part of Russia where glacier termini descend to 1998). 1500 m; the ELA is lower than 2000 m, and the glaciers face The choice is conditioned by our purpose of understand- incoming cyclones from the North Atlantic and the western ing how much the glacier systems of the Northeastern Asia, sector of the Arctic Ocean. The Orulgan Range glaciers mas- which are now under warming, would change if regional cli- sifs are located within 65◦ N–72◦ N, 128◦ E–131◦ E. mate change either persists at the current rate or is some- what enhanced. Current warming and retreat of glaciers in 2.4 Kamchatka this vast region has become a motivation of the work pre- sented. Also the choice was confirmed by the opinion of The Kamchatka glacierization consists of 448 glaciers, with J. Walsh, V. M. Katsov and J. Overland (personal communi- a combined area of about 906 km2. Of these glaciers, 38% cation, 2009) that the ECHAM4 and then ECHAM5 climatic are located in the regions of active volcanism, and less than models outputs are optimal for the Northern Eurasia.