Reviews & Essays

scholars and much of the educated public Pinker the Prophet simply deny the good news. But prehistoric graves and records from twentieth-century By Robert Jervis hunter-gatherers reveal death rates due to warfare five to ten times that of modern Europe, and the homicide rate in Western Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Na- Europe from 1300 to today has dropped ture: Why Violence Has Declined (New York: by a factor of between ten and fifty. When Viking Adult, 2011), 832 pp., $40.00. we read that after conquering a city the ancient Greeks killed all the men and sold ....ith the United States fighting the women and children into slavery, we ..two wars, countries from Tu- tend to let the phrases pass over us as we Wnisia to Syria either in or on the move on to admire Greek poetry, plays and brink of intrastate conflicts, bloodshed civilization. But this kind of slaughter was continuing in Sudan and reports that sui- central to the Greek way of life. cide bombers might foil airport security by Implicit throughout and explicit at the planting explosives within their bodies, it is very end is Pinker’s passionate belief that hard to be cheerful. But Harvard psycholo- contemporary attacks on the Enlighten- gist Steven Pinker tells us that we should ment and modernity are fundamentally be, that we are living in the least violent misguided. Critics often argue that material era ever. What’s more, he makes a case that and technical progress has been achieved will be hard to refute. The trends are not without—or even at the cost of—moral im- subtle—many of the changes involve an provement and human development. Quite order of magnitude or more. Even when his the contrary, he argues; we are enormously explanations do not fully convince, they are better than our ancestors in how we treat serious and well-grounded. one another and in our ability to work to- Pinker’s scope is enormous, ranging in gether to build better lives. time from prehistory to today and covering To make such bold and far-reaching wars (both international and civil), crime, claims, one must draw on an equally vast torture, abuse of women and children, and array of sources. And so Pinker does. The even cruelty to animals. This breadth is bibliography runs to over thirty pages set in central because violence in all of these do- small type, covering studies from anthropol- mains has declined sharply. Students of any ogy, archaeology, biology, history, political one of these areas are familiar with a narrow science, psychology and sociology. With this slice of the data, but few have stepped back range comes the obvious danger of superfi- to look at the whole picture. In fact, many ciality. Has he understood all this material? Has he selected only those sources that sup- Robert Jervis is the Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of port his claims? Does he know the limits of International Politics at Columbia University. the studies he draws on? I cannot answer

54 The National Interest Reviews & Essays these questions in all the fields, but in the methodologies to show that however much areas I do know—international relations we may fear crime, throughout the world and some psychology—his knowledge holds the danger is enormously less than it was up very well. With the typical insider’s dis- centuries ago. When we turn to torture, trust of interlopers, I was ready to catch domestic violence against women, abuse of him stacking the children and cru- deck or twisting elty to animals, the arguments and ev- progress over the idence about war. past two millennia While he does is obvious. Here miss some nuanc- what is particularly es, these are not interesting is not of major conse- only the decline quence. It is true in the incidence that despite the of these behaviors enormous toll of but also that until World Wars I and recently they were II, not only have the norm in both there been rela- the sense of being tively few massive expected and of bloody conflicts being approved. since then (and In all these di- an unprecedented verse areas, then, I period of peace think Pinker’s ar- among the major gument holds up. powers), but the Or, to put it more trends going back cautiously, the many centuries burden is now on reveal a decline in those who believe the frequency of war, albeit not a steady that violence has not declined to establish one. The record on intrastate conflicts is their case. (Whether our era sees new and muddier because definitions vary and histo- more subtle forms of violence is a different ries are incomplete, but most studies reveal question and I think would have to involve a decline there as well. In the aftermath of the stretching of this concept.) We often the Cold War, civil wars broke out in many scorn “mere” description, but here it is cen- areas, and some still rage (most obviously tral. The fact—if it is accepted as a fact— in Congo), but, contrary to expectations, that violence has declined so much in so this wave has subsided. In parallel, Pinker many forms changes the way we understand marshals multiple sources using different our era and the sweep of human history. It

Reviews & Essays November/December 2011 55 shows how much our behavior has changed foresee the cataclysms that were to come and that even if biology is destiny, destiny and appeared to justify the dominance of does not yield constant patterns. It also puts racism and sexism around the world. It is in perspective our current ills and shows all too easy for any of us to imagine how we that notions of civilization and progress are could be ridiculed, generations from now, not mere stories that we tell ourselves to jus- for our naïveté and unwitting complicity in tify our lives. a new malign order. The recent past too seems to make a o why has all this good news generally mockery of Pinker’s argument. Just to men- S gone unrecognized, and why do many tion the names of Hitler, Stalin and Mao is people believe that our age is unprecedented to make us cringe at the thought of prog- in its bloodiness? One reason Pinker notes ress. Although the world has seen noth- is the tendency to whitewash history. Myths ing so horrific since then, readers of this of a better time in the past and portrayals journal will be familiar with the wars be- of our current era as degraded are common tween Iran and Iraq and between Eritrea among social critics on both the left and and Ethiopia, and any day’s newspaper re- right to goad us into shame—and action. veals numerous incidents of bloodshed. Our understanding of the massive slaughter Since they are happening now, they are and oppression levied by the dominance of very vivid, which makes it hard to maintain the Western world over less modern civili- a sense of proportion. Reading about the zations has magnified this propensity, and latest school massacre or serial killer grabs stressing how much violence there was in our attention more than the drab long-run earlier times, and in some contemporary statistics. Even if we are aware of the terrors non-Western societies, seems to stereotype of the distant past, we do not feel them in Others as barbarians. Ironically, the liberal our gut. worldview that Pinker credits with so much The wars of the twentieth century and of our progress involves a sensitivity to our the domestic mayhem caused by those ty- current and previous sins that encourages rannical leaders will lead many to ask how viewing distant societies such as the Ameri- previous eras could conceivably have wit- can Indians not only more favorably than nessed as many casualties at the hands of we did until recently but also more favor- oppressors or at the point of a gun. Well, ably than is warranted. they didn’t. But Pinker argues that what Related to this, the somewhat cynical is important for understanding social pro- spirit of our age makes us suspicious of cesses is not the absolute number of deaths claims about progress in human behav- but their proportion of the world’s popu- ior, especially because the plethora of such lation, which has greatly increased over claims by Western thinkers like Herbert time. To some, this will seem like a sleight Spencer and even Max Weber in the nine- of hand. In what way do tens of millions teenth and twentieth centuries failed to of deaths in wars and attempts to remake

56 The National Interest Reviews & Essays The fact—if it is accepted as a fact—that violence has declined so much in so many forms changes the way we understand our era and the sweep of human history.

societies become less significant because of And this makes us resist Pinker’s analysis. the rise of world population, including in Most broadly, we see less progress than continents far distant from these atrocities? we should because we are prone to what Morally, they do not. But if one wants to can be called the conservation of fears. If use body counts as a way to understand the through effort or good fortune the problem extent of violence in the world, proportions we worry most about disappears, all the and ratios are a better measure than abso- others move up a notch. Terrorist incidents lute numbers. were frequent during the Cold War, and Is it also appropriate to point to the lack although they did not kill as many people of a war between the United States and as did 9/11, they were a significant concern the ussr as evidence of growing peaceful- for citizens and policy makers. But no one ness? The Cold War of course saw American suggested that this was a menace of suf- troops fighting in Korea and Vietnam, not ficient magnitude to merit making it the to mention numerous smaller proxy wars. pivot of American foreign policy, let alone These were not large enough to move the the center of societal concerns. We are now needle on Pinker’s scale, but a nuclear war so worried about terrorism because our se- would have been. Pinker briefly notes many curity environment is otherwise so benign. of the arguments for why this did not occur, The fact that we no longer have to live but to the extent that peace was maintained under the shadow of instantaneous destruc- by the fear of total annihilation, one can tion has much less impact on our psyches certainly question how we should enter this and sense of how dangerous our world is period into our balance sheet. If we think than logic would suggest. that we were playing Russian roulette, then the fact that we were lucky does not count inker wants to do more than docu- quite so strongly for our living in a less vio- P ment the decline of violence; he wants lent time. to explain it. And that explanation comes An awareness that massive war could still in two forms: a “Civilizing Process” that break out today similarly inhibits our sense reduced violence, especially within states, of progress. Without a true rival state to the and a “Humanitarian Revolution” that ex- United States, the specter of world-destroy- tended rights not only to different races, ing conflict has disappeared, but even opti- but also to women and children. (The two mists agree that there is at least some chance processes have some overlap, and growing of a Sino-American war, and the danger of humanitarianism probably would have been a nuclear exchange between other hostile impossible without the earlier evolution pairs, most obviously India and Pakistan— away from barbarism and toward gentility, but also Israel and a nuclear-armed Iran— but they nevertheless remain distinct.) cannot be dismissed. These perils remind Civility, for Pinker, was promoted to a us that progress always comes with costs: no great extent by the rise of the state in early splitting of the atom, no nuclear holocaust. modern Europe. It is a Hobbesian notion

Reviews & Essays November/December 2011 57 that statistics from nonstate societies con- a vital concern today: How do we devise it firm: without law supported by sufficient so that the government is strong enough to power, both self-defense and self-aggran- maintain order and guarantee rights with- dizement produce a violent world. The data out being so strong and independent as to are quite clear that the development of a be a menace to life, liberty and the pursuit state structure is associated with a sharp of happiness? decline in homicides. Here and elsewhere, The second major civilizing impulse Pinker is quick to note that correlation is the development of commerce. A fun-

does not necessarily mean causation, but damental intellectual breakthrough was both logic and chronology indicate a sig- the understanding that economic activ- nificant role for state power in quelling ities were not zero-sum and that unco- violence. erced trade was mutually beneficial. Trade Still, as Aesop noted in his fable of King also provided potential income streams for Log and King Stork (one of the few sourc- states and flourished when ruling parties es that Pinker does not cite), a strong gov- could provide internal order. Thus while ernment can kill, and a decline in homi- Columbia scholar Charles Tilly was cor- cide can be more than compensated for rect to say that “war made the state, and by an increase in state-sponsored killing. the state made war,” one too could say this Pinker acknowledges this, but I do not about commerce. think fully takes on board the central prob- To these well-known elements Pinker lem of government that has preoccupied adds the insights of the historical sociolo- so many thinkers, that underpinned the gist Norbert Elias who showed how the de- American Constitution and that remains velopment of royal courts led to forms of

58 The National Interest Reviews & Essays civilization that we now take for granted— the condescending diatribes of our elders table manners (including not brandishing along these same lines does not mean that knives that all too easily could be used Pinker is incorrect. But his case would be to stab food, as well as one’s neighbor), stronger if he could show that the march- not spitting, along with defecating and ers and protesters and anti–Vietnam War copulating only in private. Much of the brigades were the ones responsible for the evolution of etiquette and manners made increased violence. It is also hard to rule out social interactions more predictable and re- the possibility that both the social turmoil inforced self-control and the need to delay and the rise in crime were brought about by gratifications, practices that made sense third factors, most obviously the dislocation when being hot-blooded was likely to re- and diversion of resources caused by the duce rather than increase wealth, standing war and the heightened sense on the part and security. of many young and educated people that How convincing is this? The obvious ob- Western social institutions had failed to live jection is that it amounts to explaining his- up to the Enlightenment values on which tory with history; that it describes more they were founded. Indeed, the 1960s and than it enlightens. Pinker acknowledges ’70s witnessed a great expansion of rights that these mechanisms are all deeply in- and the reinvigoration of social inquiry tertwined and that proof is impossible. In that Pinker sees as an engine of progress. dealing with such large and complex phe- And while Pinker attributes the subsequent nomena, plausibility may be all that we decline in crime to a return to the earlier can hope for, and Pinker’s argument and norms, the drastic increase in the incar- evidence do meet this test. And his willing- ceration rate (which many consider to be ness to include anomalies in his explanation uncivilized) may have had something to do is admirable. But it is his desire to do so with it. that also provides grounds for skepticism. Pinker argues that the uptick in domestic hat Pinker calls the “Humanitarian violence in the West, and especially in the W Revolution” involved a recasting of United States in the late 1960s and 1970s, normal and appropriate human behavior. can be explained by a temporary “deciviliz- Part of our historical and biological heri- ing process.” The increase in homicides and tage, we now see torture, slavery, and sanc- crime was caused, he argues, by a decrease tioned violence against women, children in respect for authority, a rise in self-indul- and others who were powerless in society, gence, a scorn for self-discipline and other and often against those who held different “bourgeois values,” and a renunciation of political and religious beliefs, as repugnant. the belief that societies are held together The world became not only safer but also by a willingness to respect others. The fact more humane. that those of us who participated—even The cause, Pinker tells us, was the growth marginally—in these activities remember of literacy, writing and publishing. “Read-

Reviews & Essays November/December 2011 59 ing is a technology for perspective-taking. gies that made ideas and people increasingly When someone else’s thoughts are in your mobile. . . . [and led to] a debunking of head, you are observing the world from ignorance and superstition. . . . [and] an in- that person’s vantage point,” which leads crease in invitations to adopt the viewpoints to at least a degree of empathy. Further- of people unlike oneself.” more, exposure to a wider range of people, It is the free flow of ideas, unrestrained thoughts and events “is the first step toward by dogmas, that is doing the work for asking whether [current practices] could be Pinker. Nevertheless, much as this idea done in some other way.” Fiction as well as is appealing to academics and intellectu- nonfiction can serve this purpose, and the als, skepticism is in order. We have come mid- and late-eighteenth century witnessed to see slavery as a violation of our values an explosion of novels. With the Enlighten- and sense of what it means to be human, ment, more and more ideas were exchanged but one does not have to be a Marxist to through letters and discussions in increas- doubt that this was the inevitable conse- ingly cosmopolitan cities. Such exchanges quence of free inquiry (it certainly was not are crucial, according to Pinker, and lest in the United States). Pinker displays a I be accused of caricaturing his claim for great faith—although he would dislike that how they lead to progress, let me give an word—in the ability of social science (he extended quotation: does not like current trends in the humani- ties) to lead us toward not only a better When a large enough community of free, ra- understanding of the human condition but tional agents confers on how a society should also the betterment of it. I love reading and run its affairs, steered by logical consistency doing social science, but think we should and feedback from the world, their consensus be wary about overclaiming. Empathy, for will veer in certain directions. Just as we don’t Pinker’s account, may lead naturally (but have to explain why molecular biologists dis- not inevitably) to at least a degree of do- covered that dna has four bases . . . we may unto-others-as-you-would-have-them-do- not have to explain why enlightened thinkers unto-you behavior. But Pinker realizes that would eventually argue against African slavery, one can see the world through someone cruel punishments, despotic monarchs, and else’s eyes and still want to harm him, and the execution of witches and heretics. With also appreciates that research on the effects enough scrutiny by disinterested, rational, and and, even more, the causes of empathy and informed thinkers, these practices cannot be sympathy are necessarily limited because of justified indefinitely. the difficulty in constructing appropriate experiments, without which it is hard to The later and parallel rights revolutions over move beyond correlation. Since kindergar- the past thirty years (greater rights for racial ten, most Americans have been taught to minorities, gays, women, children and even be empathetic, and human-subjects boards animals) were similarly rooted in “technolo- would likely object to manipulations that

60 The National Interest Reviews & Essays would try to make them less so. And even roots, and much of the energy behind cam- good knowledge can be put to bad ends. It paigns that Pinker and I applaud comes is not necessarily true that all good things from people who feel a higher calling to go together; more knowledge might lead help their fellow human beings. (Pinker’s us in directions that Pinker and I would one paragraph addressing this only scratch- deplore. For example, we could learn that es the surface of the question.) capital punishment does indeed deter mur- Pinker is on firmer ground on other cru- der or that genetic endowments help ex- cial points related to knowledge. The first is plain why there are so few women in the that the reduction of violence and the ex- ranks of top mathematicians. Pinker does pansion of humane treatment of people has realize that knowledge is not the same as been spurred by the conscious decision to enlightenment—no country was more edu- design incentives and institutions to these cated than Nazi Germany—but does not ends. The growth of commerce and state consider whether an open society might power may have lowered homicide rates, democratically decide to close off certain but only as an unintended by-product; with avenues of thought. the Enlightenment, people began to con- So dogma, the antithesis of open inqui- sciously develop arrangements to reduce ry, is Pinker’s bête noire, embodied above violence and protect not only their rights all in religion, but those of at which he associ- least some others as ates with intoler- well. Here intelli- ance and supersti- gent design works. tion. There is no The circle of em- doubt that religion pathy can be de- has often contrib- liberately increased uted to evil, and by measures like as a nonbeliever liberal education, myself I have and the framers of trouble empathiz- the American Con- ing with those stitution were not who think they alone in seeing that can understand they had to—and the will of God. could—build insti- But we should tutions that would give the Devil his limit their own due: many anti- power. This is of war and human- signal importance. rights movements At its core, this have deep religious is about self-aware-

Reviews & Essays November/December 2011 61 ness—an understanding of human nature conflict. Students of international politics that can allow us to rein in our inner de- know that efforts to gain mutual security mons and give our better angels the upper can be foiled by the failure of the state to hand. Self-control, so central to the hu- realize that others may see it as a threat, manizing trends Pinker documents, can and therefore to interpret their undesired be strengthened. If empathy is developed moves as evidence that they are unreason- partly through novels, parents can urge able and aggressive. Throughout the Cold their children to read them and school War, Soviet leaders could not see that their curricula can be developed appropriately. behavior played a large role in their encir- Perspective-taking can be encouraged by clement by enemies; Mikhail Gorbachev’s foreign travel. Although we should not intellectual breakthrough was to grasp this. expect too much from these efforts (indeed Self-knowledge is important and difficult they may produce contempt and hostility) here (religious teachings about our all being and Pinker does not advocate extreme so- sinners can help), but it can also be danger- cial engineering, he does say that societies ous. Be too quick to believe that the Other function best when they are built on the is behaving badly because of what you have realization that we are all prone to violence done and the lead-up to wwii happens all and abuse. over again. Pinker also points to the role of under- standing in overcoming the particularly ome are likely to see all this as the pernicious psychological bias that he calls S Whig theory of history decked out in the “Moralization Gap.” Individuals and social-science clothes. There is something collectivities usually want to think well to this, but Pinker is aware enough to argue of themselves. This trait eases our way that his “is a kind of Whig history that is through a difficult life but causes great supported by the facts.” Although he sees problems when conflict arises because we deep forces as responsible for much of our are quick to blame others. Pinker’s cover- progress, he also acknowledges the role of age of the research on the role of this bias contingency. He might have done more to in intergroup and international conflict discuss how these two fit together; could is a bit thin (something I notice because I plausible historical counterfactuals have have contributed to it), but the basic point brought us to a very different outcome: is clear and important. Although some- Even with the Enlightenment, might full- times those we interact with are indeed blown racism have continued in the United responsible for the problem, the immedi- States had Gandhi’s campaign of nonvio- ate assumption that this is the case, and lence not succeeded and World War II not the social and psychological inhibitions been fought partly in the name of racial against seeing how we may be offending equality? others and infringing upon their legiti- It is the attempt to link so many dif- mate interests, is a major cause of escalating ferent types of declines in violence to one

62 The National Interest Reviews & Essays I am not sure he would appreciate the association, but Pinker’s argument echoes the motto engraved in the cia’s lobby: “And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.”

another that gives pause. Some links clearly lence is at best a necessary evil rather than are present. Early struggles to broaden the a valued mode of conduct. But it is quite circle of those who were believed to have possible to imagine a world in which wars inalienable rights led eventually to the civil coexist with some measure of domestic rights movement, just as it, in turn, con- peace and humane behavior. tributed to the movements for women’s For Pinker, much of what was believed equality and gay rights. But there are prob- in the more violent eras “can be considered lems in applying progress in one area to not just monstrous, but in a very real sense, progress in another. Humanitarian advanc- stupid,” and es do not necessarily lead to more peaceful and understanding relations among states. As humans have honed the institutions of Nor does more self-control in one individ- knowledge and reason, and purged supersti- ual lead to more self-control across groups tions and inconsistencies from their systems of of individuals. To his credit, Pinker real- belief, certain conclusions were bound to fol- izes this is a problem, but his attempts to low, just as when one masters the laws of arith- overcome it through social psychology are metic certain sums and products are bound to less than entirely successful. Pinker explains follow. the decline of homicide and the decline of slavery quite differently, and the decline Only in societies cut off from the free flow in war, coming later than the other mark- of ideas can enormous moral errors con- ers of progress, may be even more distinct. tinue to flourish. He realizes that this view Indeed, the two chapters on this subject seems self-congratulatory but does not do not build upon his previous arguments seem to see that it holds true only if one nor do they provide a foundation for later accepts contemporary values. His claim ones. I do not wish to argue that interna- that previous beliefs “would not stand up tional politics is entirely a world apart, but to intellectual scrutiny as being consistent wars continued to rage while other kinds of with other values [the people in earlier violence declined. Perhaps what changed eras] claimed to hold, and they persisted the incentives for peace and war must be only because the narrower intellectual spot- found elsewhere. Similarly, the connection light of the day was not routinely shone on between the decline in intra and interstate them” strains credulity. It implies that if we wars is loose. International tensions often were transported to those times we could feed internal violence as outside countries argue our new contemporaries out of their support disputing factions. And civil wars benighted beliefs and practices (assuming can transmit violence to the international we were not killed first). Pinker summarizes level. I agree with Pinker that some of these the correlations between reasoning and ed- trends are of a piece with the decline of ucation on the one hand and nonviolence, domestic violence, especially in the smaller cooperation and endorsement of individual role of honor and the general view that vio- rights on the other, but methodological

Reviews & Essays November/December 2011 63 constraints mean that only a few of these was not torture (and that the United States studies can make claims for causation, and had the legal opinions to prove this). I even those cannot escape the possibility agree, and would not argue that we are that the results simply show that smarter headed back to the Dark Ages. But this people are more likely to be socialized into sorry episode, which I think will be re- prevailing Enlightenment views. One has peated if there is another major attack on to wonder whether those who believed in America, does show that people can reason Fascism in the 1930s or endorsed the burn- themselves into cruelty. ing of witches in the seventeenth century So what does Pinker’s analysis tell us were less able to reason consistently and about the future? He refrains from specu- abstractly than we are. lation, noting the role of contingency and I am not sure he would appreciate the statistical distributions with “fat tails”—i.e., association, but Pinker’s argument echoes unexpected events with large consequences. the motto engraved in the cia’s lobby: But this sensible if cautious stance does “And ye shall know the truth and the truth not sit entirely well with his central argu- shall make you free.” These claims place ment. If knowledge, reason and the free too much of a burden on reasoning. After flow of ideas have brought violence down he moves on from the Civilizing Process, in the past, they should continue to do so Pinker largely leaves material factors be- in the future. It would seem highly likely, hind. Power and interests, costs and ben- perhaps even inevitable, that free societ- efits play little role. This, I think, is clearly ies would develop even further where they wrong for the decline of war and question- are established and spread—if at uncertain able throughout. He also downplays the pace—where dogma now reigns, with the ways in which violence can result from result that the world would be even better reasoning, just as threats and, when neces- in the coming generations. Once stated, this sary, the use of force is deployed to estab- seems too triumphalist if not reminiscent of lish and maintain open societies. When George W. Bush, but it is to be welcomed these are engaged in war, they are also ca- both as a vision and a benchmark against pable of killing large numbers of enemy ci- which Pinker’s argument can be judged by vilians, as the United States and the uk did our successors. in the bombings of Germany and Japan In the end, even if Pinker’s explanations when they calculated, correctly most his- do not entirely convince and his faith in torians now believe, that this would help reason is exaggerated, he has succeeded in bring victory. Torture also had a return documenting the enormous decline in all engagement in the wake of the terrorist sorts of violence and cruelty. This achieve- attacks of 9/11. Pinker could see progress ment of humankind deserves to be better in the fact that it was quite limited and known, and readers of this important book was justified not only by the pressing cir- will remember it and ponder its causes. It is cumstances but also by the claim that it a story worthy of seven hundred pages. n

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