ORF Issue Brief 92 Taruni Kumar
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Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS): an Al-Qaeda Affiliate Case Study Pamela G
Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS): An Al-Qaeda Affiliate Case Study Pamela G. Faber and Alexander Powell October 2017 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. This document contains the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the sponsor. Distribution DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. SPECIFIC AUTHORITY: N00014-16-D-5003 10/27/2017 Request additional copies of this document through [email protected]. Photography Credit: Michael Markowitz, CNA. Approved by: October 2017 Dr. Jonathan Schroden, Director Center for Stability and Development Center for Strategic Studies This work was performed under Federal Government Contract No. N00014-16-D-5003. Copyright © 2017 CNA Abstract Section 1228 of the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) states: “The Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Director of National Intelligence, shall provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the effectiveness of the United States’ efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al- Qaeda, including its affiliated groups, associated groups, and adherents since September 11, 2001.” The Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict (ASD (SO/LIC)) asked CNA to conduct this independent assessment, which was completed in August 2017. In order to conduct this assessment, CNA used a comparative methodology that included eight case studies on groups affiliated or associated with Al-Qaeda. These case studies were then used as a dataset for cross-case comparison. This document is a stand-alone version of the Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) case study used in the Independent Assessment. -
Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent: a New Frontline in the Global Jihadist Movement?” the International Centre for Counter- Ter Rorism – the Hague 8, No
AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: The Nucleus of Jihad in South Asia THE SOUFAN CENTER JANUARY 2019 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA !1 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT (AQIS): The Nucleus of Jihad in South Asia THE SOUFAN CENTER JANUARY 2019 !2 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures & Graphs 5 Key Findings 6 Executive Summary 7 AQIS Formation: An Affiliate with Strong Alliances 11 AQIS Leadership 19 AQIS Funding & Finances 24 Wahhabization of South Asia 27 A Region Primed: Changing Dynamics in the Subcontinent 31 Global Threats Posed by AQIS 40 Conclusion 44 Contributors 46 About The Soufan Center (TSC) 48 Endnotes 49 !3 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AAI Ansar ul Islam Bangladesh ABT Ansar ul Bangla Team AFPAK Afghanistan and Pakistan Region AQC Al-Qaeda Central AQI Al-Qaeda in Iraq AQIS Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas HUJI Harkat ul Jihad e Islami HUJI-B Harkat ul Jihad e Islami Bangladesh ISI Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence ISKP Islamic State Khorasan Province JMB Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh KFR Kidnap for Randsom LeJ Lashkar e Jhangvi LeT Lashkar e Toiba TTP Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan !4 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA LIST OF FIGURES & GRAPHS Figure 1: Map of South Asia 9 Figure 2: -
Threat of Indian Mujahideen: the Long View
ISAS Insights No. 234 – 28 November 2013 469A Bukit Timah Road #07-01, Tower Block, Singapore 259770 Tel: 6516 6179 / 6516 4239 Fax: 6776 7505 / 6314 5447 Email: [email protected] Website: www.isas.nus.edu.sg Threat of Indian Mujahideen: The Long View Shanthie Mariet D'Souza and Bibhu Prasad Routray1 Abstract The explosions in Patna in India on 27 October 2013, targeting a political rally, once again brought the Indian Mujahideen into media focus. Far from being a localised group trying to exploit local grievances, the Indian Mujahideen is fast emerging as both a formidable group within India and also an example for terrorist formations elsewhere. Introduction The origin and growth of the Indian Mujahideen (IM) have been linked to a host of issues including communal riots, perceived alienation among the Muslims, and even India’s diplomatic relations with Israel. Some organisations and personalities have, on the other hand, termed it a mere conception of the intelligence agencies and an imagination of the media. Such speculations and presumptions notwithstanding, the evolution of the IM and its growth dynamics continue to be baffling. In the context of 18 episodes of explosions in 14 Indian cities since 2005, which 1 Dr Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), an autonomous research institute at the National University of Singapore. She can be contacted at [email protected]. Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray is a Security Analyst/Consultant based in Singapore. He served as Deputy Director in the National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India, New Delhi. -
Jihadist Violence: the Indian Threat
JIHADIST VIOLENCE: THE INDIAN THREAT By Stephen Tankel Jihadist Violence: The Indian Threat 1 Available from : Asia Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 www.wilsoncenter.org/program/asia-program ISBN: 978-1-938027-34-5 THE WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS, established by Congress in 1968 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., is a living national memorial to President Wilson. The Center’s mission is to commemorate the ideals and concerns of Woodrow Wilson by providing a link between the worlds of ideas and policy, while fostering research, study, discussion, and collaboration among a broad spectrum of individuals concerned with policy and scholarship in national and interna- tional affairs. Supported by public and private funds, the Center is a nonpartisan insti- tution engaged in the study of national and world affairs. It establishes and maintains a neutral forum for free, open, and informed dialogue. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. The Center is the publisher of The Wilson Quarterly and home of Woodrow Wilson Center Press, dialogue radio and television. For more information about the Center’s activities and publications, please visit us on the web at www.wilsoncenter.org. BOARD OF TRUSTEES Thomas R. Nides, Chairman of the Board Sander R. Gerber, Vice Chairman Jane Harman, Director, President and CEO Public members: James H. -
Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent: A New Frontline in the Global Jihadist Movement? In September 2014, al-Qaeda Central (AQC) launched its latest regional affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). The new group ICCT Policy Brief was created to operate across South Asia, however, with its centre of May 2016 gravity and leadership based in Pakistan. This paper is a background brief, designed for policy makers, to shed light on and increase Author: understanding of AQC’s latest affiliate AQIS. At first glance the lack of Alastair Reed successful action has led many to argue that AQIS is of limited threat. However, despite early setbacks, the group has not been eliminated and continues to organise and plan for the future. DOI: 10.19165/2016.2.02 ISSN: 2468-0486 About the Author Alastair Reed Dr. Alastair Reed is Research Coordinator and a Research Fellow at ICCT, joining ICCT and Leiden University’s Institute of Security and Global Affairs in the autumn of 2014. Previously, he was an Assistant Professor at Utrecht University, where he completed his doctorate on research focused on understanding the processes of escalation and de-escalation in Ethnic Separatist conflicts in India and the Philippines. His main areas of interest are Terrorism and Insurgency, Conflict Analysis, Conflict Resolution, Military and Political Strategy, and International Relations, in particular with a regional focus on South Asia and South-East Asia. His current research projects address the foreign- fighter phenomenon, focusing on motivation and the use of strategic communications. About ICCT The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague (ICCT) is an independent think and do tank providing multidisciplinary policy advice and practical, solution-oriented implementation support on prevention and the rule of law, two vital pillars of effective counter-terrorism. -
Fragile States, Technological Capacity, and Increased Terrorist Activity Ore Korena* and Sumit Gangulya and Aashna Kahnnaa
Fragile States, Technological Capacity, and Increased Terrorist Activity Ore Korena* and Sumit Gangulya and Aashna Kahnnaa aDepartment of Poltical Science, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA *corresponding author: [email protected]. Fragile States, Technological Capacity, and Increased Terrorist Activity Research on terrorism disagrees on whether terrorist activity is at its highest in collapsed states, which are more hospitable to such activities, or whether terrorism increases in more capable states. We revisit this discussion by theorizing an interactive relationship: terrorists prefer to operate in politically-hospitable states, but their attack frequency within these states increases with greater technological capacity, which allows them to expand their military, recruitment, and financing operations. We analyze 27,018 terrorist incidents using regression and causal inference models, conduct a case study, and find robust support for this interactive logic. Our conclusions outline implications for policy and academic work. Keywords: terrorism; state capacity; War on Terror; technology; rogue states Does terrorist activity increase in all hospitable states equally or is it prevalent in more technologically advanced states? Recent research provides divergent answers to this question, with some studies emphasizing the role of failed states as breeding grounds for terrorists,1 while others arguing that terrorists cannot effectively operate in such states.2 Yet, to our knowledge, no study has approached this question by assuming a moderated -
India – Researched and Compiled by the Refugee Documentation Centre of Ireland on 24 August 2012
India – Researched and compiled by the Refugee Documentation Centre of Ireland on 24 August 2012 Information on a group called Babar Khalsh: their history, aims, objectives and whether the group is political, religious, or criminal. Treatment of Babar Khalsh members by the government or society. A terrorist organisation profile published by the US government affiliated National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), in a paragraph headed “Founding Philosophy”, refers to a group called Babbar Khalsa International as follows: “Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) is an organization of Sikh separatists associated with a wave of assassinations and terrorist attacks in the 1980s. The group's primary goal is the establishment of an independent Sikh country of unspecified size in northwestern India. Group statements and media sources usually refer to this proposed state as ‘Khalistan.’” (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (undated) Terrorist Organization Profile: Babbar Khalsa International (BKI)) A paragraph headed “Current Goals” states: “Babbar Khalsa seeks a sovereign state for Sikhs carved out of northern India. Punjab province and surrounding majority Sikh regions will serve as the basis for this state, but BKI does not articulate precise plans for the geographical, political, economic, or religious characteristics of its desired Khalistan.” (ibid) A country advice document published by the Australian Government – Refugee Review Tribunal, in a paragraph headed “Overview of the Babbar Khalsa International”, states: “The Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) is a Sikh separatist paramilitary group which has existed since the early 1980s. The BKI, like other Sikh militant groups, advocates an independent state for Sikhs, to be known as Khalistan. -
South Asia's Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories
South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories Edited by Sameer Lalwani and Hannah Haegeland South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories Edited by Sameer Lalwani and Hannah Haegeland JANUARY 2018 © Copyright 2018 by the Stimson Center. All rights reserved. Printed in Washington, D.C. ISBN 978-0-9997659-0-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017919496 Stimson Center 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW 8th Floor Washington, D.C. 20036 U.S.A. Visit www.stimson.org for more information about Stimson’s research. Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories CONTENTS Preface . 7 Key Terms and Acronyms . 9 Introduction . 11 Sameer Lalwani Anatomy of a Crisis: Explaining Crisis Onset in India-Pakistan Relations . 23 Sameer Lalwani & Hannah Haegeland Organizing for Crisis Management: Evaluating India’s Experience in Three Case Studies . .57 Shyam Saran Conflict Resolution and Crisis Management: Challenges in Pakistan-India Relations . 75 Riaz Mohammad Khan Intelligence, Strategic Assessment, and Decision Process Deficits: The Absence of Indian Learning from Crisis to Crisis . 97 Saikat Datta Self-Referencing the News: Media, Policymaking, and Public Opinion in India-Pakistan Crises . 115 Ruhee Neog Crisis Management in Nuclear South Asia: A Pakistani Perspective . 143 Zafar Khan China and Crisis Management in South Asia . 165 Yun Sun & Hannah Haegeland Crisis Intensity and Nuclear Signaling in South Asia . 187 Michael Krepon & Liv Dowling New Horizons, New Risks: A Scenario-based Approach to Thinking about the Future of Crisis Stability in South Asia . 221 Iskander Rehman New Challenges for Crisis Management . 251 Michael Krepon Contributors . 265 Contents 6 PREFACE With gratitude and pride I present Stimson’s latest South Asia Program book, Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories. -
Terrorist Organisation—Lashkar-E-Tayyiba) Regulation 2015
Criminal Code (Terrorist Organisation—Lashkar-e-Tayyiba) Regulation 2015 Select Legislative Instrument No. 127, 2015 I, the Honourable Paul de Jersey AC QC, Administrator of the Government of the Commonwealth of Australia, acting with the advice of the Federal Executive Council, make the following regulation. Dated 06 August 2015 Paul de Jersey Administrator By His Excellency’s Command George Brandis QC Attorney-General OPC61401 - C Federal Register of Legislative Instruments F2015L01238 Federal Register of Legislative Instruments F2015L01238 Contents 1 Name ................................................................................................. 1 2 Commencement ................................................................................. 1 3 Authority ........................................................................................... 1 4 Schedules ........................................................................................... 1 5 Terrorist organisation—Lashkar-e-Tayyiba ...................................... 2 Schedule 1—Amendments 4 Criminal Code Regulations 2002 4 No. 127, 2015 Criminal Code (Terrorist Organisation—Lashkar-e-Tayyiba) i Regulation 2015 OPC61401 - C Federal Register of Legislative Instruments F2015L01238 Federal Register of Legislative Instruments F2015L01238 Section 1 1 Name This is the Criminal Code (Terrorist Organisation—Lashkar-e- Tayyiba) Regulation 2015. 2 Commencement (1) Each provision of this instrument specified in column 1 of the table commences, or is taken to have commenced, -
CTC Sentinel Objective
MAY 2010 . VOL 3 . ISSUE 5 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT CTC SENTINel OBJECTIVE . RELEVANT . RIGOROUS Contents Riyaz Bhatkal and the Origins FEATURE ARTICLE 1 Riyaz Bhatkal and the Origins of the of the Indian Mujahidin Indian Mujahidin By Praveen Swami By Praveen Swami REPORTS 5 Salafi-Jihadi Activism in Gaza: Mapping the Threat By Benedetta Berti 10 The Virtual Jihad: An Increasingly Legitimate Form of Warfare By Akil N. Awan 13 Internet Jihadists React to the Deaths of Al-Qa`ida’s Leaders in Iraq By Abdul Hameed Bakier 15 The Kidnapping and Execution of Khalid Khwaja in Pakistan By Rahimullah Yusufzai 17 The Sources of the Abu Sayyaf’s Resilience in the Southern Philippines By Rommel C. Banlaoi 20 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity 24 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts The aftermath of the German Bakery bombing in the Indian city of Pune in February 2010. - Photo by Barcroft Media via Getty Images n the summer of 2004, a group Today, the Indian Mujahidin has been of young Indian Muslim men implicated in a number of attacks in India, gathered for a retreat at one of and there are signs that the group could the sprawling villas that line the become increasingly dangerous due to Icheerfully-named Jolly Beach, the pride its growing collaboration with Lashkar- of the small, south Indian fishing town i-Tayyiba (LT, or LeT) in Pakistan. The of Bhatkal. They swam, went for hikes in expansion of this network could pose a the woods, honed their archery skills, and serious challenge to regional stability in occasionally engaged in target practice South Asia. -
The Indian Jihadist Movement: Evolution and Dynamics by Stephen Tankel
STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES 17 The Indian Jihadist Movement: Evolution and Dynamics by Stephen Tankel Center for Strategic Research Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is National Defense University’s (NDU’s) dedicated research arm. INSS includes the Center for Strategic Research, Center for Complex Operations, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, and Conflict Records Research Center. The military and civilian analysts and staff who comprise INSS and its subcomponents execute their mission by conducting research and analysis, publishing, and participating in conferences, policy support, and outreach. The mission of INSS is to conduct strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the unified com- batant commands in support of the academic programs at NDU and to perform outreach to other U.S. Government agencies and the broader national security community. Cover: Indian soldier takes cover as Taj Mahal Hotel burns during gun battle between Indian military and militants inside hotel, Mumbai, India, November 29, 2008 (AP Photo/David Guttenfelder, File) The Indian Jihadist Movement The Indian Jihadist Movement: Evolution and Dynamics By Stephen Tankel Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives, No. 17 Series Editor: Nicholas Rostow National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. July 2014 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. -
Rehearsed Truths
Rehearsed Truths Eight successive bans on SIMI by UAPA Tribunals People’s Union for Democratic Rights, Delhi April 2020 Casting the net wider: the ever-expanding reach of UAPA Two kinds of activities are criminalized under UAPA - unlawful and terrorist. Neither of the activities necessarily mandate the commission of a violent act to be counted as a crime under UAPA. Unlawful Activity defined under s. 2(o) includes commission of acts either through words, signs, visible representation or otherwise, intended to, or supporting claims for cession or secession in the country or inciting any individuals/groups to bring about such cession or secession; or disclaiming, questioning, disrupting or intending to disrupt the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India; or intending to cause disaffection against India. Terrorist activity defined under s.15 includes acts intending to threaten the unity, integrity, security (including economic security) or sovereignty of India or intending to strike terror in the people/any section of the people in India or in any foreign country, either through use of instruments/weapons/arms etc. that result in death or otherwise or through destruction of property which was to be used for any purpose by the government of India; or through show of criminal force; detention, kidnapping, or threat to kill and injure any person to compel the government to do anything. Banning of Organizations: The UAPA allows the Central Government to ban an organization as an ‘unlawful’ one under s 3 (3) and several organizations have been banned via this section and individuals have been arrested via their association with the ‘banned’ organization.