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Polling – Climate Change Policy

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Polling – Climate Change Policy Polling – Climate Change Policy Key Results The Australia Institute surveyed 1,417 Australians between 5th and 7th of December 2017 about Australian greenhouse gas emissions and climate change policy. Emissions have increased now for three years in a row, since the repeal of the carbon price. Energy emissions are now at record highs. Under the Paris Agreement, Australia has pledged an emissions target of 26-28% reduction on 2005 level by 2030, but there are no credible policies to get there. The Paris Agreement also includes a commitment to review and consider increasing ambition. Yet while Australia’s government considers subsidising new coal mines and power plants, and a ‘National Energy Guarantee’ policy touted as a support for coal, other countries – like the UK, Canada, France, Italy and New Zealand - are pledging to phase out coal power by 2030. More than two thirds (70%) of respondents said Australia’s emissions are staying about the same (36%) or going up (34%). o Only 9% said emissions are going down. 44% said Australia is not on track to meet its 2030 emissions target, while only 25% said it is on track. o 31% said they don’t know. 58% said Australia should increase its ambition on cutting emissions. o 25% said Australia should not increase its ambition. o Increased ambition was supported by most voters for ALP (64%), Greens (85%), Other (57%) and undecided voters (51%). o Around half of LNP voters supported increase ambition (47%), higher than opposed it (37%). One Nation voters had the lowest support (36%). 60% supported Australia joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance to phase out coal power by 2030. o Only 22% opposed joining the Alliance. o There was majority support from voters for most parties, including LNP (50%), ALP (67%), and Other (56%). The exception was One Nation voters (36%) Polling – Dec 2017 – Climate policy Method The Australia Institute conducted a national survey of 1417 people between 5th and 7th of December 2017 online through Research Now with nationally representative samples by gender, age and state and territory. Results are shown only for larger states. Income crosstabs show household income. Voting crosstabs show voting intentions for the lower house. Those who were undecided were asked which way they were leaning; these leanings are included in voting intention crosstabs, but results are also shown separately for undecideds. “LNP” includes separate responses for Liberal and National. “Other” includes Nick Xenophon Team and Independent/Other. Polling – Dec 2017 – Climate policy Detailed results To the best of your knowledge, are Australia's greenhouse gas emissions current ly going up or down? Total Male Female NSW Vic Qld Going up 34% 33% 35% 33% 33% 32% St aying about the same 36% 38% 33% 38% 34% 38% Going down 9% 11% 8% 8% 10% 10% Don't know/ note su re 21% 18% 24% 21% 23% 20% LNP ALP GRN PHON Other Undec Going up 25% 38% 55% 19% 32% 31% St aying about the same 43% 32% 28% 44% 31% 23% Going down 15% 6% 4% 15% 7% 6% Don't know/ note su re 18% 23% 13% 21% 30% 40% Australia current ly has a target of cutting emissions by 26-28% on 2005 levels by 2030. Thinking about current policy settings, do you think Australia is current ly on t rack to meet its emissions targets? Total Male Female NSW Vic Qld Yes 25% 29% 21% 26% 25% 26% No 44% 44% 45% 46% 43% 42% Don't know 31% 28% 34% 29% 32% 32% LNP ALP GRN PHON Other Undec Yes 35% 22% 21% 25% 15% 11% No 33% 48% 60% 34% 52% 38% Don't know 32% 30% 19% 41% 32% 51% Polling - Dec 2017 - Climate policy In the Paris Agreement on climate change, countries agreed t o review t heir targets and consider increasing ambition. Do you think Australia should increase its ambition on cutting emissions? Total Male Female NSW Vic Qld Yes 58% 53% 63% 58% 59% 55% No 25% 32% 18% 26% 21% 29% Don't know 17% 15% 19% 16% 20% 16% LNP ALP GRN PHON Other Undec Yes 47% 64% 85% 36% 57% 51% No 37% 17% 6% 44% 24% 13% Don't know 16% 19% 10% 20% 19% 36% Countries like Canada, France, the UK, It aly and New Zealand have joined an international alliance pledging t o phase out coal power in t heir count ries by 2030. Should Australia join t his alliance? Total Male Female NSW Vic Qld Yes 60% 57% 63% 58% 63% 55% No 22% 28% 15% 23% 18% 27% Don't know/ now sure 18% 15% 22% 19% 19% 18% LNP ALP GRN PHON Other Undec Yes 50% 67% 87% 36% 56% 50% No 30% 13% 6% 43% 22% 15% Don't know/ now sure 19% 20% 7% 21% 22% 35% Polling - Dec 2017 - Climate policy The impact of Galilee Basin development on employment in existing coal regions Development of the Galilee Basin would displace production in other coal regions. Galilee mines would be more automated and less job-intensive than existing mines. Based on coal industry analysis, central estimates of employment reduction are 9,100 in the Hunter Valley, 2,000 in the Bowen Basin & 1,400 in the Surat Basin compared to a no-Galilee scenario. Galilee mines are likely to employ between 7,840 and 9,800 people, resulting in overall negative impact on coal jobs. Discussion paper Cameron Murray Bill Browne Rod Campbell July 2018 ABOUT THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE The Australia Institute is an independent public policy think tank based in Canberra. It is funded by donations from philanthropic trusts and individuals and commissioned research. We barrack for ideas, not political parties or candidates. Since its launch in 1994, the Institute has carried out highly influential research on a broad range of economic, social and environmental issues. OUR PHILOSOPHY As we begin the 21st century, new dilemmas confront our society and our planet. Unprecedented levels of consumption co-exist with extreme poverty. Through new technology we are more connected than we have ever been, yet civic engagement is declining. Environmental neglect continues despite heightened ecological awareness. A better balance is urgently needed. The Australia Institute’s directors, staff and supporters represent a broad range of views and priorities. What unites us is a belief that through a combination of research and creativity we can promote new solutions and ways of thinking. OUR PURPOSE – ‘RESEARCH THAT MATTERS’ The Institute publishes research that contributes to a more just, sustainable and peaceful society. Our goal is to gather, interpret and communicate evidence in order to both diagnose the problems we face and propose new solutions to tackle them. The Institute is wholly independent and not affiliated with any other organisation. Donations to its Research Fund are tax deductible for the donor. Anyone wishing to donate can do so via the website at https://www.tai.org.au or by calling the Institute on 02 6130 0530. Our secure and user-friendly website allows donors to make either one-off or regular monthly donations and we encourage everyone who can to donate in this way as it assists our research in the most significant manner. Level 1, Endeavour House, 1 Franklin St Canberra, ACT 2601 Tel: (02) 61300530 Email: [email protected] Website: www.tai.org.au ISSN: 1836-9014 Summary With global coal demand stable or declining, product ion from new mines will displace product ion in exist ing mines. Large scale coal development in t he Ga lilee Basin in Queensland will significantly increase the supply of traded thermal coal and decrease coa l prices. Lower prices will reduce invest ment in other Australian coa l regions, and by extension employment in the mines of t hose regions. New Ga lilee Basin mines will be large and highly automat ed, meaning t hey will employ fewer people per t onne of coal production. Adani have stat ed t hat in t heir project eventually "everything will be aut onomous from mine t o port." Automated Ga lilee Basi n mines will come at the expense of relatively job-intensive mines in other regions. Indust ry analyst s Wood Mackenzie modelled the effect s of Galilee Basin product ion on other coa l mining regions - t he Hunt er Valley, Bowen Basi n and Su rat Basin. They estimate that Ga lilee Basi n production of 150 m illion tonnes per year would reduce coa l volumes in ot her areas by 116 million tonnes in 2035 relative to a baseline scenario with no Galilee Basin development. Th is paper estimates t he effect on jobs of this relative reduct ion in production from established coa l regions. Th ree methods are used t o estimate t his impact: • Applying average labour product ivity of exist ing coal mines t o relative reduction in coa l volume. • Applying marginal labour product ivity of existing coa l mines to relat ive reduction in coa l volume. • Analysing est imat ed workforce of mines identified as being delayed or ca ncelled by Galilee Basin development. Results from t hese three est imates are presented in the Summary Table below: Summary Table: Relative reduction in employment per region in 2035 Average Marginal Workforce in impacted productivity productivity mines Hunter Valley 9,737 9,102 7,650 Bow en Basin 2,212 2,015 2,456- 3,326 Surat Basin 1,692 1,363 2,444 Total 13,641 12,480 12,550 - 13,420 The impact of Galilee Basin development 1 Based on Adani’s estimates of labour productivity in its mines, the Galilee Basin would employ between 7,840 and 9,800 people to produce 150 million tonnes per year.
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