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The Effect of Infrastructure Changes on Railway Operations University of Louisville ThinkIR: The University of Louisville's Institutional Repository Electronic Theses and Dissertations 12-2014 The effect of infrastructure changes on railway operations. Martin J.R. Schmidt 1966- University of Louisville Follow this and additional works at: https://ir.library.louisville.edu/etd Part of the Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons, and the Transportation Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Schmidt, Martin J.R. 1966-, "The effect of infrastructure changes on railway operations." (2014). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 1769. https://doi.org/10.18297/etd/1769 This Doctoral Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ThinkIR: The University of Louisville's Institutional Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ThinkIR: The University of Louisville's Institutional Repository. This title appears here courtesy of the author, who has retained all other copyrights. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE EFFECT OF INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES ON RAILWAY OPERATIONS By Martin J.R. Schmidt Dipl. Ing. , Universität Hannover, 1993 MBA, Fachhochschule des Mittelstands, 2008 A Dissertation submitted to the J.B. Speed School of Engineering of the University of Louisville in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Industrial Engineering University of Louisville Louisville, Kentucky December 2014 Copyright 2014 by Martin Johannes Reinhold Schmidt All rights reserved THE EFFECT OF INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES ON RAILWAY OPERATIONS By Martin J.R. Schmidt Dipl. Ing. , Universität Hannover, 1993 MBA, Fachhochschule des Mittelstands, 2008 A Dissertation Approved on December 1, 2014 By the following Dissertation Committee: __________________________ Gail W.DePuy, Dissertation Director __________________________ William E. Biles, Committee Member __________________________ Gerald W. Evans, Committee Member __________________________ Thomas D. Rockaway, Committee Member ii DEDICATION This dissertation proposal is dedicated to my parents Mr. Johannes W.A. Schmidt † and Mrs. Jutta I.R. Schmidt, geb. Borchardt, who gave me all support for my education. iii ABSTRACT THE EFFECT OF INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES ON RAILWAY OPERATION Martin J.R. Schmidt December 1, 2014 This paper makes use of standard simulation programs in combination with the tools of applied statistics to simulate railway operations. The purpose of the use of this tool is to evaluate and compare different possible kinds of railway infrastructure, like different types of signaling procedures, different network configuration or operational procedures. A railway system is a logistic network and because of the demand for improved railway operation, much work has been undertaken lately in this scientific field. However the author postulates the hypothesis based on a literature review that in a lot of these works there is a lack of full application of statistics. With this paper the author makes use of standard simulation programs for detailed simulation of railway operation especially with respect to the signaling and operation procedures. Additionally the influence of delays, which occur during real life railway operation is taken into account for a first time. This allows statistical evaluation of the results based on statistical significance. Also sensitivity analysis could be performed. It is demonstrated, that the results of such simulation runs show superior results when compared to other techniques not taking into account the variability. Additionally, procedures were iv developed to find the capacity of a railway network with the help of additional software tools. In this work the software package ARENA is used to simulate the operation of trains in railway networks. For this approach two major obstacles have to be solved: the simulation of train travelling times and the simulation of block rules used in railway operation. By introduction of visualization the confidence in the results of simulation, even for stakeholders not familiar with this technique, is increased. In this paper it is shown that with ARENA it is possible to calculate the capacity of different railway networks (scenarios). The results, which are calculated using quasi steady state simulation without variation, are similar to those obtained with other calculation methods. Additionally in one scenario the rule of thumb for the quotient between theoretical capacity and practical capacity in a railway network is confirmed by simulation including random variation. It is also demonstrated that OptQuest, an additional software package available for ARENA, is a suitable tool to find near optimal timetables in a scenario including delays. The results of this work may be not only of interest for railway operators, but also for operators of other automated transport systems. Such systems may be unmanned transport vehicles in a factory, transporting goods between different manufacturing stations. But also for automation of road traffic the results may be of interest. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION ................................................................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................. x LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................................... xi 1 MOTIVATION ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Operation of railway transport ................................................................................... 1 1.2 Terminology and visualization, fundamentals in railway operation ........................... 3 1.3 Internal and external factors as sources of disturbance in operation flow ................ 6 1.4 Latest developments for renovation of railway transport ....................................... 10 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................... 18 2.1 Simulation ................................................................................................................. 18 2.1.1 Motivation to perform simulation in railway systems ...................................... 20 2.1.2 Classification of simulation studies ................................................................... 22 2.1.3 Fundamentals for a simulation study with stochastic influences and use of statistics for evaluating the simulation results ................................................................. 26 2.2 Railway operation, timetable and infrastructure ..................................................... 29 2.2.1 Literature about railway operation ................................................................... 29 2.2.2 Attempts to describe the railroad operation in an abstract way ..................... 37 vi 2.2.3 Influence of infrastructure on railroad operation ............................................ 45 2.3 Simulation of railway systems .................................................................................. 47 2.3.1 Description of different railway simulation methods ....................................... 47 2.3.2 Simulation of railway systems in deterministic approach ................................ 51 2.3.3 Attempts to integrate random effects in the simulation studies of railway systems 59 2.4 New Approach to simulate and evaluate different infrastructure of railway systems 67 3 DETAILED PROBLEM STATEMENT ..................................................................................... 70 3.1 Simulation approach in railway systems ................................................................... 70 3.2 Influence of infrastructure on railway operation ..................................................... 71 3.3 Present approaches to predict the future behavior of railway systems .................. 72 3.4 New approach for capacity calculation with general-purpose simulation packages 75 4 SOLUTION METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. 78 4.1 General ...................................................................................................................... 78 4.2 Main ideas valid for both approaches ...................................................................... 81 4.3 Model development, first approach ......................................................................... 83 4.3.1 Two different methods to approximate the motion of trains .......................... 86 4.3.2 Introduction of variation in the models ............................................................ 88 4.3.3 First attempts for verification and validation of the first model approach ...... 90 4.3.4 Results of the first model approach .................................................................. 92 vii 4.3.5 ETCS Level 1 without infill ................................................................................. 92 4.4 Model development, second approach .................................................................... 93 4.4.1 Variation is introduced
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