Wisconsin Legislative Almanac

The Road to

Election data for all 132 Wisconsin legislative districts

By Joe Handrick @joeminocqua “Joe Handrick is the best Wisconsin political numbers guy in Legislative Wisconsin and the 2020 Almanac is a must-have for Almanac political junkies."

The Road to ~~ Dan O’Donnell, Award-winning broadcaster

Contents Introduction

Page 1 How Districts Are Classified in This Almanac — Explaining the three multi-race composites

State Assembly

Page 2 The Big Picture—State Assembly

Page 3 State Assembly—The Total and Likely Range of Seats That Can Be Won By Either Party

Page 4—51 Assembly Republicans — Profiles of individual districts held by GOP

Page 52 The Trump Effect, as seen in safe GOP seats

Page 53 State Assembly — Safe DEM Seats

Page 54—60 Assembly Democrats — Profiles of individual districts held by DEMs

State Senate

Page 61 The Big Picture — State Senate

Page 62 State Senate — The Total and Likely Range of Seats That Can Be Won By Either Party

Page 63—68 Senate Republicans — Profiles of individual districts held by GOP

Page 69 State Senate — Safe Seats and ODD Numbered Seats (not up for re-election in 2020)

Pages 70—72 Senate Democrats — Profiles of individual districts held by DEMs

Summary

Page 73 Summary — Pathways to Majority Page 1 How Districts Are Classified In This Almanac

To the right are the color codes and percentages used throughout this Safe GOP 58% GOP and up Safe DEM 42% GOP and below Almanac. Unless otherwise noted, all Strong GOP 55—57% GOP Strong DEM 43—45% GOP percentages are expressed in terms of the Republican share of the vote. Lean GOP 53—54% GOP Lean DEM 46-—47% GOP There are 3 distinct multi-race composites given for each district: A Highly Competitive 48—52% Pre-2015 Composite, A Post-2015 Composite, and A Generic Composite.

“How Republican (or Democrat) is District X?” Explaining the Three Multi-Race Composites

In prior editions of this Almanac, we were able to assign each Assembly and Senate district a partisan composite number based on statewide elections over the prior decade. Even as the state would swing back and forth (for example, from the big Doyle DEM win in 2006 to the big Walker GOP win in 2010), the general pattern was relatively predictable: Dane and MKE counties would vote heavy for the DEMs, the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) would go big for the GOP, and the Fox Valley and western Wisconsin would swing back and forth and choose the winner.

This basic pattern still holds to some degree. The arrival of Donald Trump in 2016, however, has altered what a GOP statewide win or a DEM statewide win looks like. Trump’s victory in 2016 was different than anything we had seen before. Compared to past GOP victories, he did poorly in WOW (he still won in WOW, but not by the massive margins of the past). At the same time, Trump did exceptionally well in rural Wisconsin — both in GOP rural areas (such as Vilas county) but also in historically DEM rural areas (such as Ashland and Trempealeau counties). Meanwhile, the Fox Valley has continued to show a tendency to “swing” back and forth and MKE and Dane counties continue to be dark blue.

The question in 2020 is whether this new pattern (GOP weaker in suburbs but stronger in rural areas) that we saw in 2016 and 2018 is a permanent re-alignment or will Wisconsin revert to historical patterns after Trump leaves the scene. Polling suggests the new pattern will hold in 2020.

Because voting patterns changed so much in 2016, this Almanac provides three composite rankings —

• Pre 2015 Composite: A composite built using statewide races from 2012 and 2014.

• Post 2015 Composite: A composite of statewide races in the era of Trump — 2016 and 2018.

• Generic Composite: A combination of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from the entire decade. These generic races are the ones least influenced by the personalities of individual candidates and, therefore, are most reflective of the generic GOP/DEM makeup of a district. They do not, however, include any presidential year elections.

Because Trump will likely be on the ballot in 2020, it is likely this new pattern will hold in the upcoming election, making the “Post 2015” composite of great use for the 2020 elections. 13th Assembly District To the right is an example of how these three composites are presented Multi-Race Composites for each featured district in the Almanac. This particular seat is a Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic suburban Milwaukee seat where GOP numbers fell dramatically later in the 59% 51% 55% decade. SAFE HIGHLY STRONG REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN

Page 2 The BIG Picture — State Assembly

99 Districts Sorted by the Post- # of Held by Held by Classification Seats GOP DEM 2015 Multi-Race Composite*

Safe GOP 30 30 0 (58% and greater GOP) In the 2018 elections, Republicans won all 48 “Post-2015 Composite” Republican seats Strong GOP 12 12 0 (55% - 57% GOP) in the Wisconsin Assembly. Lean GOP 6 6 0 (53% - 54% GOP)

Republicans won 14 of 16 highly Highly competitive swing districts. Competitive 16 14 2 (48% - 52%)

Republicans also won a strong Lean DEM 1 0 1 (53% - 54% DEM) DEM seat bringing their total in the Assembly to 63 members. Strong DEM 5 1 4 (55% - 57% DEM) Democrats won 34 of 35 Safe DEM 29 0 29 (58% and greater DEM) Democrat seats and 2 highly competitive seats, for a total of 36 TOTAL 99 63 36

99 Districts Sorted by Pre –2015 99 Districts Sorted by Generic Multi-Race Composite* District Composite*

# of # of Classification Seats Classification Seats

Safe GOP 23 (58% and greater GOP) Safe GOP 29 (58% and greater GOP)

Strong GOP 19 (55% - 57% GOP) Strong GOP 15 (55% - 57% GOP)

Lean GOP 8 (53% - 54% GOP) Lean GOP 10 (53% - 54% GOP)

Highly Highly Competitive 11 (48% - 52%) Competitive 10 (48% - 52%))

Lean DEM 3 (53% - 54% DEM) Lean DEM 0 (53% - 54% DEM)

Strong DEM 7 (55% - 57% DEM) Strong DEM 6 (55% - 57% DEM)

Safe DEM 28 (58% and greater DEM) Safe DEM 29 (58% and greater DEM)

* SEE prior page for description of “Post-2015” , “Pre-2015”, and “Generic” multi-race composites. ASSEMBLY — The Total and Likely Range of... Page 3 ...Seats That Can be Won By Either Party

While Democrats and many in the media continue to blame the Democrat’s legislative woes on redistricting, the greater problem for Democrats is their inability to win in competitive districts. Although the map creates more Republican seats than Dem- ocrat seats (due to Democratic voter hyper-concentration), Democrats are capable of winning a majority of districts — they just have not been able to. On this page we use three methods to show the total range and likely range of seats that can be won by either party. Any seat that is not designated as “safe” can be won by either party. However, a win by the opposite party in a “strong” seat is rare and usually involves an abnormal circumstance (such as a scandal). Therefore, the “total range” employed in Method 2 (SEE below) groups the “strong” seats with the “safe” seats for purposes of defining a “total range” of winnable seats.

Method 1: Based on statewide elections, 2012-2018

There have been 13 statewide races between 2012 and 2018 (not including the 2012 recall). There are 43 Assembly seats in which the GOP candidate won in all thirteen races and 34 seats in which the DEM candidate won in all thirteen. This leaves 22 districts that have been won by each of the parties in statewide races over the decade.

Therefore, using this method:

• The total possible GOP range in the Assembly is between 43 and 65 seats. Median = 54 seats.

• The total possible DEM range in the Assembly is between 34 and 56 seats. Median = 45 seats.

Method 2: Using the “Post 2015 Composite” as presented in this Almanac The GOP low end (Safe GOP plus Strong GOP) is 42 seats while the high end (add in Lean Republican, Highly Competitive and Lean DEM) is 65 seats. Meanwhile the DEM low end (Safe DEM plus Strong DEM) is 34 seats while the DEM high end is 57 seats.

Therefore, using this method:

• The total possible GOP range in the Assembly is between 42 and 65 seats. Median = 53.5 seats.

• The total possible DEM range in the Assembly is between 34 and 57 seats. Median = 45.5 seats

Method 3: Based on Districts Actually Won

Currently the GOP holds an Assembly district (AD 51) that is only 45% Republican in the Post 2015 Composite. This demonstrates it is possible for either party to win any seat that is 45% or better for that party. If the Republicans won every seat equal to or better than 45% they could be at 65 seats. If the Democrats won every seat equal or better than 45% for their party, they could be at 61 seats.

Therefore, using this method:

• The total possible GOP range in the Assembly is between 38 and 65 districts. Median = 51.5 seats.

• The total possible DEM range in the Assembly is between 34 and 61 districts. Median = 47.5 seats.

______

This Almanac is based on the partisan composite that is used in Method 2. Using this method, the TOTAL RANGE Total Range for the GOP is 42 to 65 seats and the Total Range for the Democrats is 34 to 57 seats. The likely range (taking into account incumbency) is, of course, much more narrow than the total LIKELY RANGE range. Based on retirements and incumbency at the time of publication, we project the Likely Range for the GOP is 58-64 seats. The Likely Range for the Democrats is 35 to 41 seats.

Kitchens (R) Page 4 Assembly District: 1 Held by Democrats for 20 years before the 1994 Republican wave, the 1st District has been in GOP hands ever since. At the top of the ticket, the district began to trend towards Democrats starting in the late 1990s, but swung hard towards the GOP in 2010. Obama and Romney virtually CLINTON tied here in 2012 but then the 13,459 TRUMP district swung again towards 18,524 the GOP in the three elections that have followed. Democrats can still win here as Tammy Baldwin demonstrated in 2018. The northern part of the district tends to be more Democratic, the Recent Assembly Results southern portion more Republican. GOP DEM WINNER The 1st AD is the least Republican district of 2012 51% 49% BIES (R) the three districts that make up the 1st 2014 57% 43% KITCHENS (R) Senate District. 2016 60% 40% KITCHENS (R)

2018 (UNOPPOSED) KITCHENS (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 01 In The Era of Trump… Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Most districts in the Green Bay media market have 50.1% Romney by 4% statewide and 57.9% become more Republican—including AD 01. by 7.8% in AD01

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 49.4% 54.1%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 51% 54% 53% Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2016 and 2018 HIGHLY LEAN LEAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Sortwell (R) Page 5 Assembly District: 2

CLINTON 11,258 TRUMP Recent Assembly Results 18,320

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 59% 41% JACQUE (R)

2014 (UNOPPOSED) JACQUE (R)

2016 69% 31% JACQUE (R) (vs IND)

2018 55% 37% SORTWELL (R) (4-way)

Multi-Race Composites

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 56% 58% 58% STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

GOP DEM WINNER Recent 2012 58% 42% OTT (R) Assembly 2014 (UNOPPOSED) OTT (R) Results 2016 61% 39% TUSLER (R)

2018 57% 43% TUSLER (R)

CLINTON 12,358 TRUMP 17,294

Multi-Race Composites—AD 03

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 55% 55% 56% STRONG STRONG STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Tusler (R) Assembly District: 3 Steffen (R) Page 6 Assembly District: 4 The 4th has been in Republican hands since it was created by federal courts in 1992. It has been and remains largely suburban in nature. When the seat was open in 2014, the GOP candidate out- performed both Governor Walker and the GOP composite. Rep. Steffen again greatly out-performed the top of the ticket (Trump) in 2016. His numbers fell 5 points in 2018 in the face of the blue wave and the fact that Trump is not popular in suburban areas. He did out- perform Scott Walker, however. Because of this movement, the 4th has shifted from Lean Republican to Highly Competitive. This, combined with the high- swing nature of the Fox Valley makes this a seat that could be on the watch list for both parties in the future.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 56% 44% WEININGER (R)

2014 59% 41% STEFFEN (R) CLINTON 13,416 TRUMP 2016 60% 40% STEFFEN (R) 16,278 2018 55% 45% STEFFEN (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 04

Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over Romney by 4% statewide and 51.4% 54.8% 3.4% in AD 04

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

(R) Treas ‘18 Vukmir ‘18 In The Era of Trump… 47.5% 50.9% While most districts in the Green Bay media market have become Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races more Republican— Pre 2015 Post 2015 from 2012 and 2014 AD 04 is suburban in Generic nature and the GOP Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races was hit hard by the 53% 51% 53% from 2016 and 2018 LEAN HIGHLY LEAN DEM wave in 2018. REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 7 Steineke (R) Assembly District: 5

Recent Assembly Results CLINTON 11,483 GOP DEM WINNER TRUMP 19,009 2012 56% 44% STEINEKE (R)

2014 62% 38% STEINEKE (R)

2016 65% 35% STEINEKE (R)

2018 61% 39% STEINEKE (R)

Multi-Race Composites

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 56% 59% 59% STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 59% 41% TAUCHEN (R)

2014 (UNOPPOSED) TAUCHEN (R)

2016 70% 30% TAUCHEN (R)

2018 62% 32% TAUCHEN (R) (3 way)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 06

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 58% 63% 62% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

CLINTON 8,365

TRUMP 17,107 Tauchen (R) Assembly District: 6 Hutton (R) Page 8 Assembly District: 13 This was once a Milwaukee seat. The seat moved south after the federal courts created a new minority district in northern Milwaukee County in 1992. The 13th moved again, this time west (along with the entire 5th senate district) in 2011 as Milwaukee continued to lose people compared to the growing suburbs. This caused the seat to be OPEN in 2012 and it was won by Rob Hutton. The incumbent had a close race in 2018 reflecting the weakness Trump has created for the GOP in suburban areas. In 2018 Hutton under-performed relative to Scott Walker. The eastern side of the district is very Democratic, the western side is very Republican. Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 61% 39% HUTTON (R)

2014 (UNOPPOSED) HUTTON (R) CLINTON 16,073 TRUMP 2016 (UNOPPOSED) HUTTON (R) 16,559

2018 51% 49% HUTTON (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 13

Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Romney by 4% statewide but 56.8% 50.7% did worse in AD 13

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 In The Era of Trump… 48.5% 51.0% At the beginning of the decade the 13th was a safe GOP seat — then Multi-Race Composites Trump barely won here. Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 This is an example of a Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic suburban seat that has Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races moved a lot in the era of 59% 51% 55% from 2016 and 2018 Trump — in a negative SAFE HIGHLY STRONG way for the GOP. REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Sanfelippo (R) Page 9 Assembly District: 15 Like other Milwaukee area districts, the 15th has migrated westward following population shifts from the city to the suburbs. The district, which was all in West Allis, is now partly in West Allis and partly in heavily Republican New Berlin. West Allis itself has trended more Republican in recent years — unlike many of the more affluent suburbs (like New Berlin) which have trended away from the GOP. Rep. Sanfelippo had no difficulties here in the blue wave of 2018 as he out-performed Scott Walker. The district becomes more Republican as you travel through it from east to west.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 58% 42% SANFELIPPO (R) CLINTON 2014 63% 37% SANFELIPPO (R) 13,159 TRUMP 15,240 2016 (UNOPPOSED) SANFELIPPO (R)

2018 56% 44% SANFELIPPO (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 15

Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney ‘12 Romney by 4% statewide but 53.7% 54.6% did worse in AD 15

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 49.2% 52.3% In The Era of Trump… The 15th has become Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races LESS Republican, but from 2012 and 2014 not nearly as big of a Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic drop as the neighboring Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races suburban districts 56% 52% 55% from 2016 and 2018 STRONG HIGHLY STRONG (AD13 and AD14). REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Rodriguez (R) Page 10 Assembly District: 21 An historically Democrat area, Oak Creek has trended towards the GOP over the past 30 years due to growth. The 21st switched to GOP hands in 2003 in a special election. Mark Honadel managed to hang on to this competitive district until he departed 10 years later. Jessie Rodriguez then won a special election in 2013, keeping the seat in GOP hands. Rep. Rodriguez has out- performed the top of the ticket in the elections that have followed. South Milwaukee is the more Democratic part of the district while Oak Creek tends to vote Republican.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 59% 41% HONADEL (R)

2013 56% 44% RODRIGUEZ (R) SPECIAL

2014 (UNOPPOSED) RODRIGUEZ (R) CLINTON 12,888 TRUMP 2016 59% 41% RODRIGUEZ (R) 14,399

2018 55% 45% RODRIGUEZ (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 21

Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over Romney by 4% statewide but 51.6% 52.8% only by 1.2% in AD 21

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 47.6% 50.1%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 52% 51% 52% from 2016 and 2018 HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Brandtjen (R) Page 11 Assembly District: 22

CLINTON 12,534

TRUMP Recent Assembly Results 21,286

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 (UNOPPOSED) PRIDEMORE (R)

2014 70% 30% BRANDJEN (R)

2016 (UNOPPOSED) BRANDTJEN (R)

2018 64% 36% BRANDTJEN (R)

Multi-Race Composites

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 67% 63% 66% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Inside the Data Democratic Voter Concentration

A frequent argument made in recent years attributes the GOP legislative majorities to gerrymandering. The truth, however, is that the hyper-concentration of Democrat voters is the primary driver. Milwaukee and Madison are so heavily Democrat, that 50% of the mythical statewide vote does not translate into 50% of legislative seats. Take, for example, the 76th district in Madison. It is very com- pact (non-gerrymandered) and is 88% Democrat. It’s not even physically possible to draw an 88% GOP district in Wisconsin (the most Republican district is AD 99, 70%).

Republicans enjoy a natural edge in the battle for the Legislature because Democratic voters are more concentrated geographically in urban areas, especially in Milwaukee and Madison, meaning their voting power is confined to a smaller number of districts. ~~ Milwaukee Journal analysis, Dec 6, 2018 Ott (R) Page 12

Assembly District: 23 In no other district in Wisconsin did Trump fall as far from Romney’s performance in 2012 as he did in the 23rd Assembly District. As a result, Representative Ott finds himself in a highly competitive district. Back in the 80s, Whitefish Bay and Fox Point were Republican, but they have been voting Democrat for a number of years now. In 2016 Mequon dropped significantly for Republicans — consistent with Trump’s troubles in other suburban areas.

CLINTON TRUMP 18,543 16,477

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

Not surprisingly, the further 2012 62% 38% OTT (R) you get from the city of Milwaukee, the more 2014 64% 36% OTT (R) Republican the real estate becomes. 2016 UNOPPOSED OTT (R) 2018 52% 48% OTT (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 23

Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 47.1% Romney by 4% statewide 57.2% but did worse in AD 23

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 46.7 50.1%

In The Era of Trump… Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 The 23rd (along with the Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 13th and 14th) is in the 58% 49% Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races suburban area that has 54% from 2016 and 2018 declined the most for the SAFE HIGHLY LEAN GOP in the Trump era. REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Knodl (R) Page 13 Assembly District: 24 The 24th district was not featured in past editions of this Almanac because it was SAFE GOP. It still typically votes Republican, but Trump’s suburban troubles have taken their toll. In 2018, Democrat Tammy Baldwin actually won in the 24th. Incumbent Dan Knodl was able to weather the storm and outpolled the rest of the ticket in 2018.

Glendale and Brown Deer produce health DEM margins, Germantown is heavily GOP. Mequon is historically Republican but has dropped recently.

GOP DEM WINNER CLINTON TRUMP 15,906 17,165

2012 62% 38% KNODL (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED KNODL (R)

Results 2016 UNOPPOSED KNODL (R)

Recent Recent Assembly 2018 54% 46% KNODL (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 24

Note: Trump im- Trump ‘16 Romney ‘12 proved over Romney 51.9% by 4% statewide but 56.6% did worse in AD 24

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 49.4% 52.8%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races In The Era of Trump… from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Like its other suburban 58% 52% Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races neighbors, AD 24 has 56% from 2016 and 2018 fallen significantly in the SAFE HIGHLY STRONG latter half of the decade. REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Tittl (R) Page 14 Assembly District: 25

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 58% 42% TITTL (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED TITTL (R)

2016 65% 35% TITTL (R)

2018 62% 38% TITTL (R)

Multi-Race Composites CLINTON 9,901 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic TRUMP 54% 58% 57% 16,221 LEAN SAFE STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Multi-Race Composites—AD 26 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 56% 56% 58% STRONG STRONG SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Recent Assembly Results CLINTON 11,025 TRUMP GOP DEM WINNER 15,647

2012 51% 49% ENDSLEY (R)

2014 61% 39% KATSMA (R)

2016 60% 40% KATSMA (R) 2018 58% 42% KATSMA (R) Katsma (R) Assembly District: 26 Vorpagel (R) Page 15 Assembly District: 27

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 58% 42% KESTELL (R)

2014 63% 37% VORPAGEL (R)

2016 62% 38% VORPAGEL (R)

2018 60% 40% VORPAGEL (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 27 CLINTON 11,442 Pre 2015 Post 2015 TRUMP Generic 58% 56% 16,983 SAFE SAFE STRONG 58% REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

GOP DEM WINNER Recent 2012 56% 44% SEVERSON (R) Assembly 2014 62% 38% JARCHOW R) Results 2016 61% 34% JARCHOW (R) (3 way)

2018 59% 41% MAGNAFICI (R)

CLINTON 9,662

TRUMP 18,332

Multi-Race Composites—AD 28 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 56% 58% 59% Magnafici (R) STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Assembly District: 28 Page 16 Open (Stafsholt incumbent) Assembly District: 29 A seat that has been held by Democrats more than Republicans historically, GOP Rep. John Murtha seemed to lock the seat down in recent years. Upon his retirement in 2016, the seat remained in GOP hands — partly due to an unusually strong performance here by Trump. The GOP incumbent’s election number came back more into the “normal” range in 2018. The 29th remains a LEAN REPUBLICAN seat. Republicans dominate in most of the rural areas, New Richmond is a swing area, and the city of Menomonie remains a strong Democrat area (and college town). As of the date of publication, the incumbent is running for State Senate creating an OPEN seat in AD29.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 56% 44% MURTHA (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED MURTHA (R) CLINTON 2016 61% 39% STAFSHOLT (R) 11,019 TRUMP 15,428 2018 55% 45% STAFSHOLT (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 29

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 51.5% and by 6.8% in AD 29 58.3%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 49.7% 53.1% In The Era of Trump… Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races AD 29 has moved a little Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 bit in the Republican direction — primarily Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 53% 54% 54% from 2016 and 2018 due to an unusually LEAN LEAN LEAN large Trump percentage REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and in 2016. Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Zimmerman (R) Page 17 Assembly District: 30

Aside from Dane County, St. Croix County is the fastest growing county in Wisconsin. For this reason, the 30th district has been shrinking in size over the decades. The district now is part of St. Paul suburbia. The GOP struggled here in 2018 (as it did in so many suburban areas) and the incumbent Shannon Zimmerman dropped below 55%. This district at one time was represented by former Senator Sheila Harsdorf. The City of River Falls is the most Democratic portion of AD30.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 56% 44% KNUDSON (R)

2014 60% 40% KNUDSON (R) CLINTON 13,874 TRUMP 2016 56% 44% ZIMMERMAN (R) 16,462 2018 54% 46% ZIMMERMAN (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 30

Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over 53.3% 54.3% Romney by 4% statewide but only by 1.0% in AD 30

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 48.2% 54.4%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 A largely suburban seat, the 30th has moved a Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races couple points towards 54% 52% 54% from 2016 and 2018 LEAN HIGHLY LEAN the Democrats. REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Loudenbeck (R) Page 18 Assembly District: 31 Walworth County and western Racine and Kenosha counties are a red sandwich between the blue cities of Janesville/Beloit and Racine/Kenosha. In the case of the 31st, Democrats have the ability to produce margins in the western side (City of Janesville and City of Beloit) but Republicans dominate the Walworth County portion. Representative Loudenbeck was moved from the 15th senate district to the 11th senate district in the last redistricting. At that time she also gained territory in Walworth county. This gain is responsible for the district registering as either LEAN GOP or STRONG GOP on the composites.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 57% 43% LOUDENBECK (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED LOUDENBECK (R) CLINTON 11,948 TRUMP 2016 64% 36% LOUDENBECK (R) 15,773 2018 58% 42% LOUDENBECK (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 31

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide and by 3.9% in AD 31 53.0% 56.9%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 50.1% 54.4%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 55% 54% 56% from 2016 and 2018 STRONG LEAN STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 August (R) Page 19 Assembly District: 32

CLINTON Recent Assembly Results 10,392 TRUMP GOP DEM WINNER 17,036 2012 57% 40% AUGUST (R) (3 way)

2014 66% 34% AUGUST (R)

2016 62% 38% AUGUST (R)

2018 59% 41% AUGUST (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 32 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 61% 60% SAFE SAFE SAFE 62% REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 63% 34% NASS (R) (3 way)

2014 (UNOPPOSED) HORLACHER (R)

2016 63% 37% HORLACHER (R)

2018 63% 37% HORLACHER (R) Multi-Race Composites—AD 33 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 62% 60% 62% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

CLINTON 10,971 TRUMP 18,298 Horlacher (R) Assembly District: 33 Swearingen (R) Page 20 Assembly District: 34

CLINTON Recent Assembly Results 12,409 TRUMP 21,223 GOP DEM WINNER

2012 57% 36% SWEARINGEN (R) (4 way)

2014 UNOPPOSED SWEARINGEN (R)

2016 63% 37% SWEARINGEN (R)

2018 62% 38% SWEARINGEN (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 34 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 56% 60% SAFE STRONG SAFE 59% REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 59% 41% MURSAU (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED MURSAU (R)

2016 UNOPPOSED MURSAU (R)

2018 67% 33% MURSAU (R) Multi-Race Composites—AD 36 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 55% 62% 58% STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

CLINTON 9,065

TRUMP 18,245 Mursau (R) Assembly District: 36 Felzkowski (R) Page 21 Assembly District: 35 A seat that Democrats once competed strongly in (and even held late in the 1990s), the 35th has moved hard in the GOP direction. And as is the case with other rural seats, it has nothing to do with redistricting. Rather, it has to do with rural America’s rejection of the leftward movement of Democrats (aided by strong Republican candidates). Rep. Don Friske defeated an incumbent Democrat here in 2000 and Mary Czaja locked down the seat upon his departure. The three population centers are Antigo, Merrill, and Tomahawk. The Langlade County side (Antigo) is typically more Republican than Lincoln County. The district also has some of the strong Republicans towns that are nearby Wausau.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 53% 47% CZAJA (FELZKOWSKI) (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED CZAJA (FELZKOWSKI) (R) CLINTON 10,638 2016 66% 34% CZAJA (FELZKOWSKI) (R) TRUMP 18,978 2018 63% 37% FELZKOWSKI (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 35 In The Era of Trump… Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney ‘12 Romney by 4% statewide A good example of a rural seat that moved to the right in 2016 and 52.9% 64.1% stayed there in 2018 even in the face of a DEM wave election. and by 11.2% in AD 35

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 54.5% 59.5%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 54% 59% 58% from 2016 and 2018 LEAN SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Jagler (R) Page 22 Assembly District: 37

CLINTON 11,857 TRUMP Recent Assembly Results 16,161

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 54% 46% JAGLER (R)

2014 59% 41% JAGLER (R)

2016 62% 38% JAGLER (R)

2018 (UNOPPOSED) JAGLER (R)

Multi-Race Composites

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 56% 55% 56% STRONG STRONG STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

GOP DEM WINNER Recent CLINTON 2012 58% 39% KLEEFISCH (R) (3 way) 12,889 Assembly 2014 63% 37% KLEEFISCH (R) TRUMP Results 19,134 2016 63% 37% KLEEFISCH (R)

2018 58% 42% DITTRICH (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 38 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 60% 58% 60% SAFE SAFE SAFE Dittrich (R) REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Assembly District: 38 Page 23 Born (R) Assembly District: 39

CLINTON 9,224 Recent Assembly Results TRUMP 17,292 GOP DEM WINNER

2012 60% 40% BORN (R)

2014 74% 26% BORN (R) (vs IND)

2016 67% 33% BORN (R)

2018 63% 37% BORN (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 39

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 60% 61% 62% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Multi-Race Composites—AD 40 Pre 2015 Post 2015 57% 62% STRONG SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Generic CLINTON 61% 9,479 SAFE TRUMP REPUBLICAN 18,220

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 UNOPPOSED PETERSEN (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED PETERSEN (R) 2016 65% 35% PETERSEN (R) Petersen (R) 2018 64% 36% PETERSEN (R) Assembly District: 40 Page 24 OPEN (Ballweg incumbent) Assembly District: 41

Once upon a time the Wisconsin Dells was a GOP jewel in Tommy Thompson’s assembly district. The Dells and Lake Delton now typically vote Democrat at the top of the ticket. The remainder of the district (for the most part), votes Republican. The district moved quite a bit towards Republicans in the latter half of the decade.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 58% 42% BALLWEG (R) CLINTON 2014 61% 39% BALLWEG (R) 9,815 TRUMP 2016 71% 29% BALLWEG (R) 16,264

2018 63% 37% BALLWEG (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 41

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 50.9% 62.4% and by 11.5% in AD 41

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 52.8% 58.1%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 In The Era of Trump… Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 54% 58% 57% from 2016 and 2018 AD 41 has moved from LEAN SAFE STRONG LEAN GOP to REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and STRONG GOP. Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Plumer (R) Page 25 Assembly District: 42

A HIGHLY COMPETITVE district early in the decade, the GOP continues to produce superior candidates here (Keith Ripp followed by Jon Plumer). The seat has moved in the GOP direction in the latter half of the decade and is now LEAN REPUBLICAN. Democrats can accumulate margins in Lodi, Poynette, and DeForest — but nearly all the remaining real estate is Republican. Some of the most Republican towns in Wisconsin are in the 42nd allowing the GOP to overpower the Dane county portion of the seat.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 57% 43% RIPP (R)

2014 58% 41% RIPP (R) CLINTON 2016 59% 41% RIPP (R) 11,858 TRUMP 16,000 2018 53% 45% PLUMER (R) SPECIAL

2018 58% 42% PLUMER (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 42

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 48.5% 57.4 and by 8.9% in AD 42

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 49.1 53.6%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Trump and Walker did Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races well enough here to 51% 53% 53% from 2016 and 2018 move AD 42 from HIGHLY LEAN LEAN purple to light red. COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Tranel (R) Page 26 Assembly District: 49

The 49th is just one of many seats in south west Wisconsin where Democrats often win at the top of the ticket, but the GOP nearly always wins at the Assembly (and Senate) level. Trump performed exceptionally well here in 2016. Democrats bounced back well in 2018 (Evers actually beat Walker hear by 1%), but the incumbent Republican Tranel won handily.

CLINTON 11,277 TRUMP 13,762

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 54% 46% TRANEL (R)

2014 61% 39% TRANEL (R)

2016 57% 43% TRANEL (R)

2018 59% 41% TRANEL (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 49

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 42.9% and by 12.1% in AD 49 55.0%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 45.4% 51.6%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 A 12 point jump from Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Romney to Trump, buth 47% 50% 49% from 2016 and 2018 then a move back towards LEAN HIGHLY HIGHLY the middle in 2018. DEMOCRAT COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Kurtz (R) Page 27 Assembly District: 50

CLINTON 10,695 TRUMP 14,939

The 50th contains most of the real estate of the old Tommy Thompson district. In the 1990’s, however, Juneau County started to turn away from Republicans and went strongly for Obama in 2008 and again in 2012. In the early part of this decade the 50th was viewed as a 50/50 district. But that was one whole president ago. Trump improved over Romney by nearly 14 points. Republicans gave back some of that in the DEM wave of 2018, but the seat still registers as LEAN Republican for the latter half of the decade.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 50% 47% BROOKS (R)

2014 58% 42% BROOKS (R)

2016 58% 42% BROOKS (R)

2018 55% 43% KURTZ (R) (3 way)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 50

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 44.7% and by 13.6% in AD 50 58.3%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 49.5% 55.1%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Although AD 50 moved Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from purple to red over 48% 54% 52% from 2016 and 2018 the decade, the GOP HIGHLY LEAN HIGHLY gave back some of COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and those gains in 2018. Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Novak (R) Page 28 Assembly District: 51

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 52% 48% MARKLEIN (R) Through much of the 70s and 80s there were seats 2014 48% 47% NOVAK (R) (3 way) the GOP could not win 2016 51% 49% NOVAK (R) despite the fact that they always carried them at the 2018 51% 49% NOVAK (R) top of the ticket. This drove Republicans crazy. District 51 is the seat that drives Demo- crats crazy in a similar manner. The strongest DEM areas of this district are Mineral With the exception of the Point and Dodgeville in two DEM wave elections Iowa County. of 2006 and 2008, they have been unable to win AD 51 — despite the fact that it is a STRONG Demo- CLINTON TRUMP crat seat. 14,240 13,552 This is largely attributable to superior candidates offered by the GOP.

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 51

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 39.6% Romney by 4% statewide 48.8% and by 9.2% in AD 51

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 39.8% 46.7%

In The Era of Trump… Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Trump came closer to Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic winning than any other Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races state GOP candidate 43% 45% 45% from 2016 and 2018 STRONG STRONG this decade, but still STRONG lost AD 51. DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Thiesfeldt (R) Page 29 Assembly District: 52

CLINTON 10,593 Recent Assembly Results TRUMP 15,782 GOP DEM WINNER

2012 61% 39% THIESFELDT (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED THIESFELDT (R)

2016 64% 36% THIESFELDT (R)

2018 62% 38% THIESFELDT (R)

Multi-Race Composites

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 56% 57% 57% STRONG STRONG STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 60% 40% SCHRAA (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED SCHRAA (R)

2016 UNOPPOSED SCHRAA (R)

2018 63% 37% SCHRAA (R) Multi-Race Composites—AD 53

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 57% 60% 59% STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

CLINTON 10,557 TRUMP 17,961 Schraa (R) Assembly District: 53 Page 30 Open Seat (Rohrkaste incumbent) Assembly District: 55

The old 55th district held by Dean Kaufert became more and more competitive at the Town of Greenville is top of the ticket during the 1990s and GOP stronghold 2000s. As is seen in many areas in the state (and across the nation), the cities in the old district (Neenah and Menasha) were becoming more Democrat while the nearby towns were trending more Republican. With most of the city of Menasha out of the district after the last Towns of Clayton and Neenah are redistricting, the seat was STRONG GOP in the early part of the DEM margins GOP strongholds. decade, but is now HIGHLY COMPETITIVE. come from Trump exceeded 55% here but the GOP dropped in 2018 with city of Democrat Tammy Baldwin actually winning here. Neenah

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 65% 35% KAUFERT (R)

2014 58% 42% ROHRKASTE (R) CLINTON 12,288 TRUMP 2016 61% 38% ROHRKASTE (R) 15,941 2018 55% 45% ROHRKASTE (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 55

Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over 51.9% 55.3% Romney by 4% statewide and by 3.4% in AD 55

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 48.6% 52% In The Era of Trump… Although Trump did well Multi-Race Composites here, the GOP fell enough Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races here in 2018 to move the Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 post-2015 composite into Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races HIGHLY COMPETITIVE 55% 52% 54% from 2016 and 2018 territory. STRONG HIGHLY LEAN REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Murphy (R) Page 31 Assembly District: 56

CLINTON 12,774 TRUMP 19,064 Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 58% 42% MURPHY (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED MURPHY (R)

2016 65% 35% MURPHY (R)

2018 60% 40% MURPHY (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 56

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 59% 58% 59% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Multi-Race Composites—AD 58

Pre 2015 Post 2015

71% 69% CLINTON SAFE SAFE 9,045 REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Generic 71% SAFE TRUMP REPUBLICAN 21,164

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 UNOPPOSED STRACHOTA (R)

2014 UNOPPPSED GANNON (R)

2016 UNOPPOSED GANNON (R)

2018 71% 29% GUNDRUM (R) Gundrum (R) Assembly District: 58 Ramthun (R) Page 32 Assembly District: 59

CLINTON 10,169

Recent Assembly Results TRUMP 24,876 GOP DEM WINNER

2012 UNOPPOSED LE MAHIEU

2014 UNOPPPSED KREMER (R)

2016 UNOPPOSED KREMER (R)

2018 UNOPPOSED RAMTHUN (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 59

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 68% 70% 70% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Brooks (R) Assembly District: 60

Multi-Race Composites– AD 60

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 70% 65% 69% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER CLINTON 11,085 2012 71% 29% STROEBEL (R) TRUMP 2014 UNOPPOSED BROOKS (R) 21,430 2016 75% 25% BROOKS (R) (vs IND)

2018 65% 35% BROOKS (R) Page 33 Vos (R) Assembly District: 63

Recent Assembly Results CLINTON 11,320 GOP DEM WINNER TRUMP 17,149 2012 58% 42% VOS (R)

2014 63% 37% VOS (R)

2016 64% 36% VOS (R)

2018 61% 39% VOS (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 63

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 58% 58% 59% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER CLINTON 10,816 2012 56% 44% KERKMAN (R) TRUMP 17,136 2014 UNOPPOSED KERKMAN (R) 2016 67% 33% KERKMAN (R)

2018 62% 38% KERKMAN (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 61

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 58% 58% 59% SAFE SAFE SAFE Kerkman (R) REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Assembly District: 61 Wittke (R) Page 34 Assembly District: 62

The eight wards from the city of Racine are Democrat, but the remainder of the district is Republican — the western towns of Noway and Raymond are overwhelmingly so. This seat was OPEN in 2018 and the Republican candidate Wittke performed right about where the composites suggested he would.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 53% 47% WEATHERSTON (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED WEATHERSTON (R) TRUMP CLINTON 18,524 13,079 TRUMP 2016 UNOPPOSED WEATHERSTON (R) 17,162 2018 55% 45% WITTKE (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 62

Note: Trump improved over Romney by 4% statewide Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 and by 2.9% in AD 62 53.9% 56.8%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 51.7% 54.8%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 56% 55% 56% from 2016 and 2018 STRONG STRONG STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 35 (R) Summerfield Assembly District: 67

A HIGHLY COMPETITIVE seat just a few cycles ago, the 67th moved sharply to the right in 2014 and 2016 and remained STRONG REPUBLICAN even in the DEM wave of 2018.

Most of the townships typically vote Republican leaving only the city of Chippewa Falls and villages of Colfax and Elk Mound as places where DEMs can roll up margins.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 53% 47% LARSON (R) CLINTON 2014 60% 40% LARSON (R) 10,827 TRUMP 17,289 2016 64% 36% SUMMERFIELD (R)

2018 62% 38% SUMMERFIELD (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 67

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 51.4% Romney by 4% statewide 61.5% and by 10.1% in AD 67

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 51.4% 56.4%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 A good example of a Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races northern seat that 52% 56% 55% from 2016 and 2018 moved to the right in HIGHLY STRONG STRONG 2016 and stayed there COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and in 2018. Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 36 James (R) Assembly District: 68 The most Democratic parts of AD68 are Altoona and the portion of the city of Eau Claire that are in the district. Throughout this Almanac you can see examples of where DEM candidates for Assembly under- perform the composite numbers. This happened in the 68th as well. One of Wisconsin’s HIGHLY COMPETITIVE districts, and another one that Democrats have been unable to win — - even in elections where the top-of-ticket Democrats won here. In 2012 both Democrats Obama and Baldwin won here, but Republican Kathy Bernier gathered 52%. When Bernier left the seat in 2018, newcomer Jesse James matched her high mark of 58% — even as Baldwin carried it and Walker only received 55%.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 52% 48% BERNIER (R)

2014 53% 47% BERNIER (R)

2016 58% 42% BERNIER (R) CLINTON 12,002 TRUMP 2018 58% 42% JAMES (R) 15,634

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 68

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 48.1% Romney by 4% statewide 56.6% and by 8.5% in AD 68

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 48.2% 52.3%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 AD 68 gained 3 points Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from the pre to post 49% 52% 51% from 2016 and 2018 2015 composite, but HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY remains purple. COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 37 OPEN (Kulp incumbent) Assembly District: 69

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 61% 39% SUDER (R)

2014 69% 31% KULP (R)

2016 UNOPPOSED KULP (R)

2018 UNOPPOSED KULP (R)

Multi-Race Composites

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic CLINTON 57% 59% 59% 8,900 STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN TRUMP 15,886

Inside the Data A recurring theme throughout this Almanac is that rural areas have The “Trump Effect” become more red and suburban areas have become more blue in recent years. This movement started before Trump arrived on the scene in 2016, but accelerated greatly that year. The graph to the left shows this movement by comparing AD 23 (Ott district in suburban Milwaukee) to AD 92 (Pronschinske district in western Wisconsin). At the start of the decade, AD 23 was a very red district and AD 92 was modestly blue. By 2018 AD 92 had actually become more Republican than the suburban MKE district. Vandermeer (R) Page 38 Assembly District: 70

One of the largest swings toward Trump over the Romney vote in 2012 was in the 70th. Democrat Amy Sue Vruwink managed to hold on here in 2012 with a hair over 50% of the vote. But the district began to trend more Republican starting in 2014 and then moved hard in 2016 for Trump. And while some of the 2016 GOP gains were lost here in 2018, the district remained STRONG GOP in 2018 with incumbent Vandermeer greatly outpolling all of the statewide GOP candidates.

The Democrat areas of AD70 are the city of Sparta, city of Tomah, and the area around Stevens Point. Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 50% 50% VRUWINK (D)

2014 53% 47% VANDERMEER (R) TRUMP 18,524 CLINTON 2016 62% 38% VANDERMEER (R) 10,448 TRUMP 2018 62% 38% VANDERMEER (R) 16,345

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 70

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 50.7% and by 10.3% in AD 70 61.0%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 51.4% 55.9%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 A highly competitive Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races seat early in the 52% 56% 54% from 2016 and 2018 decade, AD 70 moved HIGHLY STRONG LEAN sharply to the right and COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and stayed there. Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Krug (R) Page 39 Assembly District: 72

After the last redistricting, this seat was the quintessential toss-up seat in Wisconsin. Now, it has moved into the “Strong Republican” classification. Romney barely won here in and Democrat Tammy Baldwin carried it in 2012. But beginning in 2014, Democrats cannot come close (except for Doug LaFollette). This, by the way, is evidence that the movement of rural Wisconsin against the Democrats began before Trump. The city of Wisconsin Rapids is the only area remaining in the 72nd where Democrats can roll up margins.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 50% 50% KRUG (R)

2014 56% 44% KRUG (R) TRUMPCLINTON 18,524 10,758 2016 57% 43% KRUG (R) TRUMP 17,074 2018 57% 43% KRUG (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 72

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 50.7% and by 10.6% in AD 72 61.3%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 52.3% 56.3%

The Democrats won the seat as recently as 2012 when the GOP incumbent found himself embroiled in controversy.

The top-of-ticket was close in CLINTON 2012 (Romney received 52%) but 10,026 the GOP has dominated ever TRUMP since. 17,666

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 49% 51% SMITH (D)

2014 55% 45% QUINN (R)

2016 62% 38% QUINN (R)

2018 62% 38% QUINN (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 75

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 51.8% and by 12% in AD 75 63.8%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 54.2% 58%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic In The Era of Trump… Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 53% 58% 56% from 2016 and 2018 AD 75 has become LEAN SAFE STRONG solidly Republican REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Skowronski (R) Page 41 Assembly District: 82

The 82nd had been held by Democrats for decades until Jeff Stone’s special election in 1998. Over the years the district’s geography has not changed much, but it kept trending more and more red as the years went by. This trend towards the GOP was driven by suburban growth in Franklin. By the early part of this decade, the seat had reached the status of “SAFE” for the GOP. Thus, it was not featured in prior editions of this Almanac. Like other suburban seats, however, this didn’t last as Trump only receive 54% here in 2016. Walker bounced back in 2018 getting in excess of 57% and even Vukmir won here. The election composite shows the seat as “Lean Republican” in the latter half of the decade.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 60% 40% STONE (R)

2013 64% 36% SKOWRONSKI (SPECIAL)

2014 UNOPPOSED SKOWRONSKI (R) CLINTON 13,685 TRUMP 16,222 2016 UNOPPOSED SKOWRONSKI (R)

2018 UNOPPOSED SKOWRONSKI (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 82

In The Era of Trump… Note: Trump improved over Romney by 4% statewide Trump ‘16 Romney ‘12 Like other suburban seats, AD 82 has but did worse in AD 82 54.2% 56.7% become less Republican.

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 50.9% 53.9%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 59% 54% 56% from 2016 and 2018 SAFE LEAN STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Wichgers (R) Page 42 Assembly District: 83 Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 70% 30% CRAIG (R) CLINTON 10,351 2014 73% 27% CRAIG (R)

2016 UNOPPOSED WICHGERS (R)

2018 70% 30% WICHGERS (R) TRUMP 22,965

Multi-Race Composites—AD 83

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 70% 67% 69% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

CLINTON TRUMP 13,245 17,163 Multi-Race Composites AD 84

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 59% 56% 57% SAFE STRONG STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 63% 37% KUGLITSCH (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED KUGLITSCH (R) 2016 UNOPPOSED KUGLITSCH (R) Kuglitsch (R) 2018 57% 43% KUGLITSCH (R) Assembly District: 84 Snyder (R) Page 43 Assembly District: 85

This Wausau-based seat has been highly competitive since the 1980s and has been a headache for each party at different times. In the 80s and 90s this seat was the poster child for the Republican’s inability to win competitive districts. Then, in 2011, redistricting made the seat a little more Democrat — but now it’s the Democrats that cannot win it. Probably no seat demonstrates the inability of Assembly Democrats to win competitive districts in recent years more than the 85th. In the last two cycles, the district has started to trend towards the GOP (Trump and Walker both won here). Most of the Republican wards are out in the towns, while most of the Democrat wards are in the City of Wausau. Wausau makes up about 2/3 of the voters in the 85th.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 47% 53% WRGHT (D) CLINTON 2014 50% 50% HEATON (R) CLINTON13,459 TRUMP 12,534 14,070 2016 53% 47% SNYDER (R)

2018 55% 45% SNYDER (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 85

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Romney by 4% statewide Trump ‘16 47.5% and by 5.4% in AD 85 52.9%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 55% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 46.9% 50.1%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 AD 85 has moved in Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races the Republican 49% 51% 50% from 2016 and 2018 direction, but remains HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY a classic toss-up COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and district. Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Spiros (R) Page 44 Assembly District: 86

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 55% 45% SPIROS (R)

2014 62% 38% SPIROS (R)

2016 58% 36% SPIROS (R) (3 way)

2018 60% 37% SPIROS (R) (3 way)

CLINTON Multi-Race Composites—AD 86 11,513 TRUMP Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 18,817 57% 59% 59% STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Edming (R) Assembly District: 87

CLINTON 8,278

Recent Assembly Results TRUMP 17,918 GOP DEM WINNER

2012 58% 42% WILLIAMS (R)

2014 66% 34% EDMING (R)

2016 68% 32% EDMING (R)

2018 66% 34% ERMING (R)

Multi-Race Composites -- AD 87

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 57% 63% 60% STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Macco (R) Page 45 Assembly District: 88

Prior to 2011, the seat leaned to the Democrats. Despite this, Republicans at the Assembly level have won this seat more often than they’ve lost it. The GOP did lose the 88th in the DEM wave elections of 2006 and 2008. The GOP regained it in 2010. The seat became modestly more Republican in the 2011 redistricting and the GOP has held it since. CLINTON 13,311 TRUMP 15,442

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 52% 48% KLENKE (R) A highly competitive district, the 88th has 2 distinct halves: the northern portion (city of 2014 56% 44% MACCO (R) Green Bay) is Democrat and the southern portion is Republican. 2016 61% 39% MACCO (R)

2018 53% 47% MACCO (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 88

Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over 50.8% 53.7% Romney by 4% statewide and by 2.9% in AD 88

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 46.9% 50.6%

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 59% 41% NYGREN (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED NYGREN (R)

2016 68% 32% NYGREN (R)

2018 67% 33% NYGREN (R)

CLINTON Multi-Race Composites 9,658

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic TRUMP 56% 61% 60% 18,852 STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Inside the Data There is no such thing as a “statewide

legislative vote” The GOP didn’t bother to field candidates against 30 Democrats in ultra-blue Assembly districts, so using the statewide This Almanac does not compute the statewide legislative vote in any Assembly vote as a measure of how many given year because doing so is misleading. seats Democrats “should have” won is misleading. In reality, there is not a statewide legislative vote. Each district is a “winner take all” election. For example, if the Democrats win districts ~~ Milwaukee Journal analysis, 01 and 02 each by 51% to 49%, they win 100% of those 2 seats — not 51% of them. At that point, the GOP would have won 49% of the com- Dec 6, 2018 bined vote but have zero percent of the seats. Furthermore, incumbents in many districts go unchallenged. This makes any statewide tally skewed and rendered meaningless. Pronschinske (R) Page 47 Assembly District: 92 Jackson County is most Democrat area of the 92nd. Trempealeau The 92nd district was once and Buffalo counties have trended held by Republican Terry red in recent years Musser — but it was a much different seat. In the 2011 redistricting it actually was drawn as a Democrat seat and included much of the old 91st district (held for years by Democrat Barbara Gronemus). But in the mid 2010’s the seat swung significantly in the GOP direction and is now a purple district. The 92nd went strongly for both Walker in 2018 and Trump in 2016. Republican Treig Pronschinske surprised many in 2016 when he defeated a DEM incumbent.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 UNOPPOSED DANOU (D) CLINTON 2014 44% 56% DANOU (D) 13,459CLINTON 10,965 TRUMP 14,565 2016 52% 48% PRONSCHINSKE (R)

2018 55% 45% PRONSCHINSKE (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 92

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 44.4% and by 12.7% in AD 92 57.1%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 46.3% 51.1% In The Era of Trump… A former DEM area, AD 92 Multi-Race Composites has moved to the right putting Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races it in the HIGHLY Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 COMPETIVE zone. Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Trump did well here in ‘16 46% 51% 49% from 2016 and 2018 but DEMs rebounded LEAN HIGHLY HIGHLY somewhat in ‘18. DEMOCRAT COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Petryk (R) Page 48

Assembly District: 93 There is not a “GOP side” and a “DEM side” of the 93rd district — the district is relative uniform.

When the city of Eau Claire was largely re- united into one Assembly district in 2011, the 93rd had to expand into rural Pierce and Pepin counties. The district leans Republican, but has become more red since Trump’s arrival in 2016. TRUMP 18,524 Pepin county is one of the counties in the entire nation that swung the hardest towards the GOP in the 2016 Trump election. Vukmir and Baldwin tied here in 2018.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 50% 50% PETRYK (R) CLINTON 2014 55% 45% PETRYK (R) 12,164 TRUMP 17,784 2016 UNOPPOSED PETRYK (R)

2018 58% 42% PETRYK (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 93

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Romney by 4% statewide Trump ‘16 52.4% and by 7% in AD 93 59.4%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 50.0% 53.7%

Multi-Race Composites In The Era of Trump… Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 AD 93 has moved a couple points to the Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races GOP in the latter half 53% 55% 54% from 2016 and 2018 LEAN STRONG LEAN of the decade. REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Oldenburg (R) Page 49 Assembly District: 96

Held by Republicans for what seems like forever, this district often votes CLINTON 11,432 TRUMP Democrat at the top-of- 13,794 ticket. Republicans, however, keep finding a perfect fit for the district: DuWayne Johnsrud, Lee Nerison, and now Loren Oldenburg. Democrats come close to winning the 96th when the seat is open (i.e. 2018) and during Democrat waves.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 60% 40% NERISON (R)

2014 59% 41% NERISON (R)

2016 61% 39% NERISON (R)

2018 52% 48% OLDENBURG (R) The Monroe County portion is the most Republican area, Crawford County is the most Democrat.

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 96

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 43.6% and by 11.1% in AD 96 54.7%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 44.1% 49.4% In The Era of Trump… Multi-Race Composites In AD 96 we see one of Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races the largest from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic improvements of Trump Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races over Romney. DEMs 46% 49% 48% from 2016 and 2018 regained some of that LEAN HIGHLY HIGHLY ground in the 2018 DEMOCRAT COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and DEM wave, however. Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Allen (R) Page 50 Assembly District: 97

CLINTON TRUMP 11,444 15,821 Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 64% 36% KRAMER (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED ALLEN (R)

2016 UNOPPOSED ALLEN (R)

2018 UNOPPOSED ALLEN (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 97

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 63% 58% 62% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 70% 30% FARROW (R)

2014 UNOPPOSED NEYLON (R)

2016 UNOPPOSED NEYLON (R)

2018 UNOPPOSED NEYLON (R)

Multi-Race Composites—AD 98

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic 69% 63% 67% SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

CLINTON 11,659 TRUMP 19,736 Neylon (R) Assembly District: 98 Duchow (R) Page 51 Assembly District: 99

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 76% 24% KAPENGA (R)

2014 78% 22% KAPENGA (R) CLINTON 2016 UNOPPOSED DUCHOW (R) 10,170 2018 UNOPPOSED DUCHOW (R)

Multi-Race Composites

Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic TRUMP 75% 70% 73% 23,325 SAFE SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN

End of Republican held Assembly districts Page 52 The Trump Effect — State Assembly

On this page are the Pre and Post 2015 composites for the SAFE GOP seats. This side-by-side comparison illustrates the “Trump Effect” — suburban districts moving to the left and rural seats moving to the right. It should be noted, however, this movement began prior to Trump, but was greatly accelerated in 2016. Note: Most suburban districts have fallen for Republicans in the era of Trump while most rural districts have gained GOP strength.

Pre- Post- GOP Change # Incumbent 2015 2015 In Trump Era District Type AD 99 DUCHOW 75% 70% -5% Suburban Milwaukee district

AD 59 RAMTHUN 68% 70% +2% Mixed rural and Milwaukee suburban fringe

AD 58 GUNDRUM 71% 69% -2% Suburban Milwaukee district

AD 83 WICHERS 70% 67% -3% Suburban Milwaukee district

AD 60 BROOKS 70% 65% -5% Suburban Milwaukee district

AD 98 NEYLEN 69% 63% -6% Suburban Milwaukee district

AD 22 BRANDJEN 67% 63% -4% Suburban Milwaukee district

AD 06 TAUCHEN 58% 63% +5% Rural north east Wisconsin district

AD 87 EDMING 57% 63% +6% Rural north west Wisconsin district

AD 40 PETERSEN 57% 62% +5% Rural central Wisconsin district

AD 36 MURSAU 55% 62% +7% Rural north east Wisconsin district

AD 39 BORN 60% 61% +1% Rural and small city south central Wisconsin district

AD 89 NYGREN 56% 61% +2% Mixed rural and Green Bay suburban district

AD 33 HORLACHER 62% 60% -2% Mixed rural, small city, and Milwaukee suburban district

AD 32 AUGUST 61% 60% -1% Mixed rural and small city SE Wisconsin district

AD 53 SCHRAA 57% 60% +3% Mixed rural and Oshkosh/FDL suburban district

AD 34 SWEARINGEN 56% 60% +4% Rural northern Wisconsin district

AD 86 SPIROS 57% 59% +2% Mixed rural, small city, and suburban Wausau district

AD 69 OPEN 57% 59% +2% Rural central Wisconsin district

AD 05 STEINEKE 56% 59% +3% Mixed rural, small city, and Fox Cities suburban district

AD 28 MAGNAFICI 56% 58% +2% Rural north west Wisconsin district

AD 97 ALLEN 63% 58% -5% Suburban Milwaukee district

AD 38 DITTRICH 60% 58% -2% Mixed small city, suburban Milwaukee district, and rural

AD 56 MURPHY 59% 58% -1% Mixed small city, rural, and Fox Cities suburban district

AD 63 VOS 58% 58% NC Mixed small city and Racine suburban district

AD 61 KERKMAN 58% 58% NC Mixed small city and Kenosha suburban district

AD 02 SORTWELL 56% 58% +2% Mixed small city, rural, and Green Bay suburban district

Page 53 SAFE DEM Seats — State Assembly On this page are the Pre and Post 2015 composites for the SAFE DEM seats. The are ranked by the “Post 2015 Compo- site” starting with the most Democratic seats (the numbers shown are GOP percentages). As you can see, most of these districts have become more DEM in the Trump era — thus further concentrating Democrat votes in the big cities. Due to their status as SAFE, these districts do not have their own page in this Almanac.

Pre- Post- Change in # Incumbent 2015 2015 Trump Era District Type AD 16 HAYWOOD 10% 9% -1% Majority African-American, Milwaukee

AD 18 GOYKE 11% 10% -1% Majority African-American, Milwaukee

AD 10 BOWEN 11% 10% -1% Majority African-American, Milwaukee

AD 77 STUBBS 17% 12% -5% Urban Madison

AD 76 OPEN 17% 12% -5% Urban Madison

AD 17 OPEN 14% 13% -1% Majority African-American, Milwaukee

AD 11 FIELDS 14% 13% -1% Majority African-American, Milwaukee

AD 08 OPEN 16% 16% -1% Majority Latino, Milwaukee

AD 12 MYERS 21% 18% -3% Majority African-American, Milwaukee

AD 48 SARGENT 22% 19% -3% Urban Madison

AD 78 SUBECK 28% 21% -7% Urban Madison

AD 19 BROSTOFF 30% 21% -9% Downtown Milwaukee (not a minority district)

AD 47 ANDERSON 29% 24% -5% Madison, Monona, Fitchburg

AD 09 CABRERA 27% 24% -3% Majority Latino, Milwaukee

AD 66 NEUBAUER 26% 26% NC Urban Racine

AD 46 HEBL 37% 32% -5% Suburban and rural Dane County

AD 80 POPE 36% 33% -3% Suburb and rural Dane County

AD 79 HESSELBEIN 40% 33% -7% Suburban Madison

AD 95 BILLINGS 37% 34% -3% Urban LaCrosse

AD 65 OHNSTAD 35% 35% NC Urban Kenosha

AD 91 EMERSON 40% 36% -4% Urban Eau Claire

AD 44 KOLSTE 37% 37% NC Urban Janesville

AD 90 GRUSZYNSKI 39% 38% -1% Urban Green Bay

AD 20 SINICKI 42% 38% -4% Milwaukee south side, Cudahy, St Francis

AD 07 RIEMER 44% 39% -5% West Allis, West Milwaukee, portions of Milwaukee

AD 45 SPREITZER 38% 40% +2% Beloit and rural Rock and Green counties

AD 57 OPEN 43% 41% -2% Urban Appleton/Menasha

AD 81 CONSIDINE 41% 42% +1% Rural Dane, Sauk and Columbia counties

AD 64 McGUIRE 43% 42% -1% Urban and Suburban Kenosha/Racine

Vining (D) Page 54 Assembly District: 14 As Milwaukee has lost population, this district has migrated to the west over the decades. The district started the decade as a GOP strong-hold, but turned sharply in 2016 and actually voted for Clinton over Trump. The popular incumbent (Kooyenga) had no trouble in 2016, but once the seat opened up in 2018 the Democrats were able to win it — something unthinkable as late as 2015. Walker was able to win here in 2018. The eastern side of the district is very Democratic, the western side is very Republican.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 59% 41% KOOYENGA (R)

2014 (UNOPPOSED) KOOYENGA (R) CLINTON TRUMP 2016 57% 43% KOOYENGA (R) 17,646 16,107

2018 48% 49% VINING (D)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 14

Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Romney by 4% statewide but 57.1% 47.7% did 10% worse in AD 14

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

In The Era of Trump… Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 47.1% 49.3% The 14th is one of the seats in Wisconsin where Trump has had Multi-Race Composites the greatest negative Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 impact for the GOP. A Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic once strong GOP Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races suburban seat, Trump 58% 49% 54% from 2016 and 2018 actually lost here in SAFE HIGHLY LEAN 2016. REPUBLICAN COMPETITIVE REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Don Vruwink (D) Page 55 Assembly District: 43 Although a STRONG DEM district, certain GOP candidates have done well here including Trump (47%) and Walker (46%). A Republican held the old 43rd for six years in the 2000s and won it again in 2010. Democrats have held the seat from 2012 until the present day. TRUMP CLINTON 13,018 14,936

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 42% 58% JORGENSEN (D)

2014 40% 60% JORGENSEN (D)

2016 45% 55% VRUWINK (D)

2018 39% 61% VRUWINK (D)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 43

Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Note: Trump improved over 40.8 46.6% Romney by 4% statewide and by 5.8% in AD 43

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

In The Era of Trump… Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 39.4% 42.4% The 43rd was, and remains, a STRONG DEM district.

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 43% 43% 43% from 2016 and 2018 STRONG STRONG STRONG DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Hintz (D) Page 56 Assembly District: 54

Republican Gregg Underheim won this seat in a special election in 1987 and was able to hold the seat until his retirement in 2006. The Republican candidate received 48% here in 2014 and Ron Johnson broke even here in 2016. Critics of the GOP redistricting map in 2011 often point to the 54th district and its weird zigs and zags. But as you can see in the map to the right — this is simply the outline for the city of Oshkosh.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 40% 60% HINTZ (D)

2014 48% 52% HINTZ (D) TRUMP 2016 UNOPPOSED HINTZ (D) CLINTON 11,612 13,006 2018 UNOPPOSED HINTZ (D)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 54

Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney ‘12 Romney by 4% statewide 40.4% and by 6.8% in AD 54 47.2%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 39.4% 42.1%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic from 2012 and 2014 Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 44% 43% 44% from 2016 and 2018 STRONG STRONG STRONG DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Shankland (D) Page 57 Assembly District: 71

Although a STRONG DEM seat, the GOP has made some strong showings here at the top of the ticket (Walker and Schimel 2014, Trump and Johnson 2016). The seat is dominated by the city of Stevens Point — a university town. Most of the towns lean Republican.

TRUMP TRUMP 18,524 13,375 CLINTON 15,557

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 61% 39% SHANKLAND (D)

2014 UNOPPOSED SHANKLAND (D)

2016 UNOPPOSED SHANKLAND (D)

2018 UNOPPOSED SHANKLAND (D)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 71

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 41.6% 46.2% and by 4.6% in AD 71

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 40.2% 42.3%

Trump lost this district by 11 votes — a shocking result considering the SAFE Democratic history of the 73rd.

This combined with Walker receiving TRUMP CLINTON 45% here in 2018 has moved this 14,229 14,240 district away from its prior ranking as “SAFE DEM”.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 UNOPPOSED MILROY (D)

2014 UNOPPOSED MILROY (D)

2016 UNOPPOSED MILROY (D) The city of Superior is strongly Democrat — pretty much the remainder of the 73rd is modestly Republican. 2018 UNOPPOSED MILROY (D)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 73

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 38.0% and by 12% in AD 73 50.0%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 41.3% 43.3% In The Era of Trump… Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races Although moving in the Pre 2015 Post 2015 from 2012 and 2014 Republican direction, Generic AD 73 started the Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races decade as the second 39% 45% 42% from 2016 and 2018 SAFE STRONG SAFE most Democrat seat in DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and the north. Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Meyers (D) Page 59 Assembly District:

Like the 73rd district to the west, the 74th is one of the areas of the state where Walker did better in 2018 in a losing effort than he did in 2014 in a winning effort. Trump actually carried the 74th just four years after Democrat Obama received nearly 60% here.

TRUMP CLINTON Northern Bayfield and norther Ashland 15,187 14,290 counties are heavily Democrat. The remainder of the district has been trending Republican. Iron County — once a DEM stronghold is now a GOP stronghold.

Recent GOP DEM WINNER Assembly 2012 41% 59% BEWLEY (D) Results 2014 35% 65% MEYERS (D)

2016 UNOPPOSED MEYERS (D)

2018 44% 56% MEYERS (D)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 74

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 41.1% and by 10.4% in AD 74 51.5%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 42.4% 45.2%

In The Era of Trump… Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 AD 74 has moved in Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic the direction of 42% 46% Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races becoming a competitive 44% from 2016 and 2018 district. SAFE LEAN STRONG DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 (D) Doyle Page 60 Assembly District: 94 The 94th is one of the few swing districts in Wisconsin that Democrats have won in recent years. It is a mix of LaCrosse bedroom communities and rural ag lands. Republicans regained the 94th in 1994 when Mike Huebsch upset Virgil Roberts in the GOP wave. Democrats regained the district in a special election following Huebsch’s departure in early 2011. At the top-of-ticket it is close to a 50/50 seat. And unlike many districts, the district is purple from one end to the other — there is not a super-blue or super-red end of the seat.

Recent Assembly Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 39% 61% DOYLE (D)

2014 46% 54% DOYLE (D) CLINTON TRUMP 14,619 15,753 2016 47% 53% DOYLE (D)

2018 40% 60% DOYLE (D)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, AD 94

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 47.9% 51.9% and by 4% in AD 94

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 44.1% 48.5% In The Era of Trump… AD 94 remains a Multi-Race Composites HIGHLY Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races COMPETITIVE district. Pre 2015 Post 2015 Post 2015 from 2012 and 2014 Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 50% 49% 50% from 2016 and 2018 HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 61 The BIG Picture — State Senate

33 Districts Sorted by the Post- # of Held by Held by Classification Seats GOP DEM 2015 Multi-Race Composite*

Safe GOP 6 6 0 (58% and greater GOP) Republicans hold 15 of 16 GOP seats — the Democrats hold one Lean GOP seat (Senate District Strong GOP 7 7 0 (55% to 57% GOP) 10) that was won in a 2018 special election. Lean GOP 3 2 1 (53% to 54% GOP)

Republicans hold 4 of 7 highly competitive, swing Highly seats. Only one of these seats is up for election Competitive 7 4 3 (48% to 52%) in 2020 and it is an OPEN seat (SD #30).

Democrats currently hold all 10 Democrat Lean DEM 0 0 0 (53% to 54% DEM) seats. Republicans did hold one of them (Senate District 32, LaCrosse area) in the Strong DEM 1 0 1 (55% to 57% DEM) early part of the last decade. Safe DEM 9 0 9 (58% and greater DEM)

TOTAL 33 19 14

33 Districts Sorted by Pre –2015 33 Districts Sorted by Generic Multi-Race Composite* District Composite*

# of # of Classification Seats Classification Seats

Safe GOP 7 (58% and greater GOP) Safe GOP 8 (58% and greater GOP)

Strong GOP 4 (55% - 57% GOP) Strong GOP 7 (55% - 57% GOP)

Lean GOP 6 (53% - 54% GOP) Lean GOP 2 (53% - 54% GOP)

Highly Highly Competitive 2 (48% - 52%) Competitive 4 (48% - 52%))

Lean DEM 3 (53% - 54% DEM) Lean DEM 2 (53% - 54% DEM)

Strong DEM 2 (55% - 57% DEM) Strong DEM 1 (55% - 57% DEM)

Safe DEM 9 (58% and greater DEM) Safe DEM 9 (58% and greater DEM)

* SEE page 1 for description of ““Post-2015” , “Pre-2015”, and “Generic” multi-race composites. SENATE — The Total Range and Likely Range of... Page 62 ...Seats That Can be Won By Either Party

While Democrats and many in the media continue to blame the Democrat’s legislative woes on redistricting, the inability of Democrats to win competitive districts is a greater problem for Democrats. Although the map creates more Republican seats than Democrat seats (due to Democratic voter hyper-concentration), Democrats are capable of winning a majority of districts — they just have not been able to. On this page we employ 3 distinct methods to show the potential and likely range of seats that can be won by either party. Theoretically, any seat that is not designated as “safe” can be won by either party, but a win by the opposite party in a “strong” seat is rare and usually involves an abnormal circumstance (such as a scandal). Therefore, the “total range” employed in Method 2 below groups the “strong” seats with the “safe” seats for purposes of defining a “total range” of seats.

Method 1: Based on statewide elections, 2012-2018

There have been 13 statewide races between 2012 and 2018 (not including the 2012 recall). There are 15 Senate seats in which the GOP candidate won in all thirteen races and 10 seats in which the DEM candidate won in all thirteen. This leaves 8 districts that have been won by each of the parties in statewide races over the decade.

Therefore, using this method:

• The total possible GOP range in the Senate is between 15 and 23 seats. Median = 19 seats.

• The total possible DEM range in the Senate is between 10 and 18 seats. Median = 14 seats.

Method 2: Using the “Post 2015 Composite” as outlined in this almanac. The likely GOP low end (Safe + Strong) is 13 seats while the high end (add in Lean Republican, Highly Competitive and Lean DEM) is 23 seats. Meanwhile the likely DEM low end (Safe + Strong) is 10 seats while the DEM high end is 20 seats.

Therefore, using this method:

• The total possible GOP range in the Senate is between 13 and 23 seats. Median = 18 seats.

• The total possible DEM range in the Senate is between 10 and 20 seats. Median = 15 seats

Method 3: Looking at current legislative district incumbents

Currently the Democrats hold a senate district (SD 10) that is only 46% Democrat in the Post 2015 Composite. For the Democrats, there are 20 districts equal to or better than the worse seat they currently hold. For the Republicans, there are 23 districts that are 46% or better for them. Therefore, using this method:

• The total possible GOP range in the Senate is between 13 and 23 districts. Median = 18 seats.

• The total possible DEM range in the Senate is between 10 and 20 districts. Median = 15 seats.

______- This almanac is based on the partisan composite that is used in Method 2. Using this method, the TOTAL RANGE total possible range for the GOP is 13 to 23 seats and the total possible range for the Democrats is 10 to 20 seats.

The likely range (taking into account incumbency) is, of course, much more narrow than the total LIKELY RANGE range. Based on retirements and incumbency at the time of publication, we project the Likely Range for the GOP is 19-21 seats. The Likely Range for Democrats is 12-14 seats. Cowles (R) Page 63 Senate District: 2

The 6th Assembly District is the most Rob Cowles has locked this seat down Republican of the three since a 1987 special election following assembly districts the election of Senator Don Hanaway within SD2. as Wisconsin’s AG. The 4th Assembly The district has always been District is the least Republican, but has become more red Republican of the in recent years and is now STRONG three. GOP. Rob Cowles is a popular incumbent who repeatedly leads the GOP ticket in votes.

Recent Senate Results CLINTON 33,264 GOP DEM WINNER TRUMP 52,394 2012 UNOPPOSED COWLES (R)

2016 65% 35% COWLES (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 02

In The Era of Trump… While GOP numbers in suburban Green Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Bay dropped, the increased in rural areas driving up the numbers Romney by 4% statewide Below 42.6% 53.4% 61.2% for SD 02 as a whole. and by 7.8% in SD 02 45.5% SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 47.9% 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59% 52 %

54.4 % Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 53.5% 57.6% 57.4%

Over 57.4% Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 56% 57% 58% from 2016 and 2018 STRONG STRONG SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and REPUBLICAN Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Darling (R) Page 64 Senate District: 8

The 8th district joins the 5th district (Kooyenga) as the two Wisconsin senate seats where GOP numbers have fallen dramatically in the past two elections. The 8th started the decade as SAFE GOP and has fallen to LEAN GOP. Even Republican senate candidate Leah Vukmir was able to garner 52% in the 8th , however.

Democrats are able to build margins in the Milwaukee portion of this district. The areas outside of MKE county are red.

Recent Senate Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 UNOPPOSED DARLING (R) CLINTON 46,983 TRUMP 2016 UNOPPOSED DARLING (R) 54,928

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 08

In The Era of Trump… Note: Trump improved Trump ‘16 over Romney by 4% Romney ‘12 Below 42.6% Although still Republican, the 8th SD saw a dramatic drop 53.9% statewide but did 59.6% in GOP numbers in the latter half of the decade. worse in SD 08 45.5% SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 47.9% 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59% 52 %

54.4 % Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 52.0% 55.5% 57.4%

Over 57.4% Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 61% 54% 59% from 2016 and 2018 SAFE LEAN SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and REPUBLICAN Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 65 OPEN (Tiffany incumbent) Senate District: 12

Despite its Republican numbers at the top of the ticket, the 12th has been represented by a Democrat for 29 of the past 36 years. The 12th has been trending Republican since 1994, however, and when Jim Holperin left in 2012 the Republicans were able to flip the seat and hold onto it in 2016. Meanwhile, at the top of the ticket the seat has moved from STRONG Republican to SAFE Republican. The district could become open in 2020 as incumbent Tiffany is running for Congress in a special election.

Recent Senate Results The only real places here the Democrats can build margins are Menominee GOP DEM WINNER County, Rhinelander, and CLINTON Merrill. All the remaining 2012 56% 41% TIFFANY (R) 32,112 geography is red (or is very, very small in 2016 63% 37% TIFFANY (R) TRUMP 58,446 population).

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 12

In The Era of Trump… Note: Trump improved Romney ‘12 over Romney by 4% Trump ‘16 Like most rural districts, SD 12 has 53.7% statewide and by 10.8% 64.5% become more GOP. in SD 12

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 55.7% 60.6%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 55% 60% 59% from 2016 and 2018 STRONG SAFE SAFE REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and REPUBLICAN Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 66 OPEN (Olsen incumbent) Senate District: 14

CLINTON 31,254 The 14th is a historically Republican district. Before TRUMP Luther Olsen there was Bob Welch, Joe Leehan, and 50,674 Gerald Lorge. Like most other central and northern Wisconsin districts, the 14th has moved to the right in the latter half of this decade. After surviving a tough recall in 2011, the incumbent has had no trouble since.

Recent Senate Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 58% 42% OLSEN (R)

2016 57% 43% OLSEN (R) The northern portion has always been the most Republican part of the 14th, while the far southern portion and Marquette County have been the best for Democrats.

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 14

In The Era of Trump… Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide The 14th moved dramatically to the right in the 51.2% and by 10.7% in SD 14 61.9% latter half of the decade.

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 53.0% 57.7%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 54% 57% 57% from 2016 and 2018 LEAN STRONG STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and REPUBLICAN Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Feyen (R) Page 67 Senate District: 18

Oshkosh is the Democrat base of the district — everything else is red.

Even though the 18th has been represented almost exclusively by Republicans for decades (Scott McCallum’s seat at one time), the recall of 2011 demonstrates why it is only a LEAN GOP seat. The Democrats did pick up this seat in the 2011 recall election but then lost it as soon as the next regular election came around in 2012 (Republican Rick Gudex defeated Democrat Jessica King in 2012 by 600 votes out of 85,000 plus cast). The Baldwin/Vukmir race in 2018 again showed that this is a seat Democrats are capable of winning.

Recent Senate Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 50% 50% GUDEX (R) CLINTON 34,176 TRUMP 2016 56% 44% FEYEN (R) 45,355

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 18

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Romney by 4% statewide Trump ‘16 50.6% and by 6.4% in SD 18 57.0%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 49.7% 53.3%

Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 53% 53% 54% from 2016 and 2018 LEAN LEAN LEAN REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and REPUBLICAN Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Testin (R) Page 68

Senate District: 24 The 71st Assembly District is the Democrat This district may, based on generic numbers, be the part of this senate district. most 50/50 senate seat up for election in 2020. The 24th is thought of as a Democratic seat, and for decades it was. In 2014 nobody really noticed when Scott Walker got 52% of the vote here. Then Trump received 53% in 2016 and Pat Testin shocked incumbent Julie Lassa. The statewide races in 2018 confirm the rating as HIGHLY COMPETIVE as the GOP percentages were in the 49 to 51 range (except for Vukmir who came in at 46%). The Democratic heart of the district is Stevens Point. Meanwhile Wisconsin Rapids, once a blue-collar Democrat stronghold, is now slightly Republican.

Recent Senate Results

GOP DEM WINNER CLINTON 28,654 TRUMP 2012 43% 57% LASSA (D) 32,369 2016 52% 48% TESTIN (R)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 24

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide 46.2% and by 6.8% in SD 24 53.0%

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 In The Era of Trump… 45.8% 48.8% SD 24 moved from a LEAN DEM seat to a Multi-Race Composites true 50/50 district. Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 47% 50% 49% from 2016 and 2018 LEAN HIGHLY HIGHLY DEMOCRAT COMPETITIVE Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and COMPETITIVE Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 SAFE Seats — State Senate Page 69 Below are the Pre and Post 2015 composites for the SAFE GOP and SAFE DEM seats. The are ranked by the “Post 2015 Composite”. Due to their status as SAFE, these districts do not have their own page in this Almanac.

Pre- Post- Change in # Incumbent 2015 2015 Trump Era District Type SD 20 Stroebel (R) 69% 68% -1% GOP Suburban Milwaukee district mixed with rural

SD 33 Kapenga (R) 67% 63% -4% GOP Suburban Milwaukee district

SD 28 Craig (R) 62% 59% -3% GOP Suburban Milwaukee district

SD 11 Nass (R) 59% 58% -1% GOP Mixed rural, small city, and Milwaukee suburban district

SD 13 Fitzgerald (R) 59% 58% -1% GOP Mixed rural, small city south central Wisconsin district

Safe DEM seats — expressed in terms of DEM percentage SD 15 Ringhand (D) 61% 60% -1% DEM Mid sized cities and surrounding rural area

SD 27 Erpenbach (D) 61% 65% +4% DEM Madison urban mixed with suburban

SD 7 Larson (D) 59% 65% +6% DEM Milwaukee urban and suburban

SD 22 Wirch (D) 65% 65% n/c Largely urban with mixed SE Wisconsin suburbs

SD 3 Carpenter (D) 66% 71% +4% DEM Milwaukee urban Note: There are five DEM districts with a stronger partisan tilt than SD 16 OPEN 74% 78% +4% DEM Madison urban the most heavily Republican seat. SD 26 OPEN 77% 83% +6% DEM Madison urban This reflects the concentration of Democrat voters in Milwaukee SD 4 Taylor (D) 85% 87% +3% DEM Milwaukee urban and Madison.

SD 6 Johnson (D) 88% 89% +1% DEM Milwaukee urban

Other ODD Seats — State Senate The seats listed below are not safe, but they are ODD. Because they have an odd number, these seats are not up for election in 2020 and, therefore, do not have their own page in this edition of the Almanac. Numbers shown are GOP percentages. Pre- Post- Change in # Incumbent 2015 2015 Trump Era District Type SD 29 Petrowski (R) 54% 57% +4% GOP Mix of metro Wausau, small cities, and rural north

SD 21 Wanggaard (R) 57% 56% -1% GOP Suburban south-east Wisconsin and rural areas

SD 9 LeMahieu (R) 56% 57% +1% GOP Sheboygan and surrounding rural, small cities

SD 1 Jacque (R) 54% 55% +2% GOP Rural north-east mixed with small cities and urban Appleton

SD 23 Bernier (R) 53% 56% +3% GOP Suburban Eau Claire, small cities, and rural mix

SD 5 Kooyenga (R) 58% 51% -7% GOP Suburban Milwaukee

SD 17 Marklein (R) 46% 50% +4% GOP Rural south-west and small cities

SD 19 Roth (R) 52% 50% -2% GOP Urban Fox cities and surrounding rural

SD 25 Bewley (D) 45% 50% +5% GOP Rural north-west and city of Superior

SD 31 Smith (D) 47% 48% +1% GOP Mix of Eau Claire urban, small cities, and western rural

Schachtner (D) Page 70 Senate District: 10

This is the DEM held senate CLINTON district that is most likely to 34,555 go back to the GOP in 2020. TRUMP 50,222 It is historically a LEAN GOP seat but has twice elected a Democrat in modern history (Clausing won in 1992 and 1996 and Schachtner won a 2018 special election).

The district swung hard towards the GOP in 2010 and most of it has stayed there. The 30th Assembly district moved back towards the Democrats in 2018 largely due to its suburban nature.

Recent Senate Results

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 59% 41% HARSDORF (R)

2016 63% 37% HARSDORF (R)

2018* 44% 55% SCHACHTNER (D)

*Special Election The most Democratic parts of this district are the cities of Menomonie and River Falls. The northern part of the district is the most Republican.

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 10

In The Era of Trump…The 10th as a whole has not changed Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 much, but the suburban areas in AD30 have become less Romney by 4% statewide Below 42.6% 53.2% 59.2% Republican while more rural areas have become more GOP. and by 6% in SD 10 45.5% SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 47.9% 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59% 52 %

54.4 % Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 51.3% 54.4% 57.4%

Over 57.4% Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 54% 54% 55% from 2016 and 2018 LEAN LEAN STRONG REPUBLICAN REPUBLICAN Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and REPUBLICAN Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 71 OPEN Seat (Hanson incumbent) Senate District: 30

This Green Bay seat is a good example of a seat Republicans have been able to win on numerous occasions at the top of the ticket, but Democrats have usually won at the State Senate level. That could change in 2020 now that the seat is OPEN. From 1976 to 1992 Democrat Jerry Van Sistine held the 30th — overcoming two Ronald Reagan landslides. Van Sistine left the senate in 1992 to run for Congress. Republican Gary Drzewiecki won the district in 1992 and 1996 but was defeated by Dave Hansen in 2000. CLINTON 33,879 TRUMP Hansen barely held on in 2016 in face of a 55%+ 42,445 showing in SD 30 by Trump.

Recent Senate Results

GOP DEM WINNER Nearly all the Democrat margins are going to come out of the City 2012 46% 54% HANSEN (D) of Green Bay — most everything else is Republican territory. 2016 49% 51% HANSEN (D)

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 30

Note: Trump improved over Romney ‘12 Trump ‘16 Romney by 4% statewide Below 42.6% 47.7% and by 7.9% in SD 30 55.6% 45.5% SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 47.9% 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59% 52 %

54.4 % Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 47.4% 50.3% In The Era of Trump… 57.4% SD 30 remains a Over 57.4% Multi-Race Composites HIGHLY COMPETITIVE Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races district. from 2012 and 2014 Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races 50% 51% 52% from 2016 and 2018 HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE COMPETITIVE Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 72 OPEN (Schilling incumbent) Senate District: 32

Although rated as a STRONG DEMOCRAT district, Republican Dan Kapanke was able to win here twice (in 2004 and 2008) and nearly won again in 2016 (he lost by 56 votes). Kapanke is alone, however. In statewide races, the GOP is zero for thirteen in this decade in the 32nd. The closest a Republican statewide candidate came to winning was Brad Schimel who scored 49% here in 2014.

CLINTON TRUMP Recent Senate Results 43,838 40,172

GOP DEM WINNER

2012 42% 58% SCHILLING (D) The strongest part of this district for 2016 49% 49% SCHILLING (D) (3 way) Democrats is the City of LaCrosse.

STATEWIDE ELECTIONS PROFILE, SD 32

Romney ‘12 Note: Trump improved over Trump ‘16 41.9% Romney by 4% statewide 47.8% and by 5.9% in SD 32

SAFE DEM STRONG DEM LEAN DEM HIGHLY COMPETITIVE LEAN GOP STRONG GOP SAFE GOP 41% 43% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 57% 59%

Vukmir ‘18 (R) Treas ‘18 39.2% 43.5% In The Era of Trump… Within SD 32, the rural 96th assembly seat Multi-Race Composites Pre-2015: Aggregation of statewide races became more GOP and from 2012 and 2014 the urban 95th became Pre 2015 Post 2015 Generic more Democrat over the Post-2015: Aggregation of statewide races decade, cancelling each 45% 45% 45% from 2016 and 2018 other out. STRONG STRONG STRONG DEMOCRAT DEMOCRAT Generic: Aggregation of State Treasurer and DEMOCRAT Secretary of State races from 2014 and 2018 Page 73

Conclusion — Pathways to Majority

STATE SENATE # of Classification Seats

33 Districts Sorted by the Post-2015 Multi-Race Composite* Safe GOP 6 Republicans— Strong GOP 7 • Start with the 11 ODD seats the GOP holds that are not up for election in 2020 • Retain the 2 SAFE GOP seats that are up in 2020 (20 & 28) Lean GOP 3 • Retain four of these six districts in 2020: Cowles (02), Darling (08), OPEN (12), OPEN (14), Feyen (18), Testin (24) Highly Democrats — Competitive 7 • Start with the 6 ODD seats the DEMs currently hold that are not up for election in 2020 • Retain the 5 SAFE DEM seats that are up in 2020 (4, 6, 16, 22, 26) Lean DEM 0 • Retain the one STRONG DEM seat up in 2020 (OPEN–32) • Retain the HIGHLY COMPETITIVE seat up in 2020 (OPEN Hanson seat—30) Strong DEM 1 • Retain the one LEAN GOP seat currently held by a DEM (Schachtner—10) Safe DEM 9 • Pick up the one GOP-held HIGHLY COMPETITIVE district up in 2020 (Testin –24) • Pick up 2 of these 5 GOP seats: Cowles (02), Darling (08), OPEN (12), TOTAL 33 OPEN (14), Feyen (18)

# of Classification Seats STATE ASSEMBLY Safe GOP 30 99 Districts Sorted by the Post-2015 Multi-Race Composite* Strong GOP 12 Republicans — Lean GOP 6 • Win all 30 SAFE GOP seats • Win all 12 STRONG GOP seats • Win all 6 LEAN GOP seats Highly • Win 2 of 16 HIGHLY COMPETITIVE seats Competitive 16

Democrats — Lean DEM 1 • Retain all 29 SAFE DEM seats • Retain all 4 STRONG DEM seats they currently hold Strong DEM 5 • Win the STRONG DEM seat currently held by GOP (51) • Retain the single LEAN DEM seat (74) Safe DEM 29 • Win 15 of the 16 HIGHLY COMPETITIVE seats TOTAL 99

* SEE page 1 for description of ““Post-2015” , “Pre-2015”, and “Generic” multi-race composites.

Likely Range of Seats (From pages 3 and 62)…

LIKELY RANGE ASSEMBLY — GOP likely range: 58-64 seats. DEM likely range: 35-41 seats.

LIKELY RANGE SENATE — GOP likely range: 19-21 seats. DEM likely range: 12-14 seats.