Opinions About War Reparations

POLISH

PUBLICOPINION Solid and Professional 1 1/2017

ISSN 2083-1714 CONTENTS Perception of Polish-German relations

Perception Over half of Poles (56%) perceive current Polish-German relations as average, i.e. neither good nor bad. The rest slightly more often define them as good than bad. of Polish-German Current assessments of Polish-German relations are among the worst since relations January 1987, when for the first time CBOS asked Poles about this issue. Polish- German relations were worse than currently perceived only in July 2007, at the Opinions about war end of the term of government of Jarosław Kaczyński. reparations Generally, public opinion about relations between Poland and Germany is characterized by high volatility. In CBOS surveys, they were best assessed in Subjective vs. objective February 1991, shortly How do you assess current Polish-German relations? indicators of the state after the signing of the Good Neither good nor bad Bad Don't know of the economy and Polish-German border 70% 59 57 57 60% 55 56 52 52 54 treaty. We also recorded 49 50 48 material living conditions 50% 46 47 41 positive assessments of 38 38 40% 35 33 35 29 29 Social ties mutual relations at the 30% 26 24 26 25 22 end of the PO-PSL (Civic 20% 18 18 13 14 16 18 9 10 10 9 6 10% 5 6 10 P l a t fo r m – Pea s a n t 1 3 8 1 8 6 0% 5 4 6 3 5 4 7 7 7 6 8 9 8 5 5 5 91 P a r t y ) c o a l i t i o n 90 011 98 01 01 00 00 98 01 IN ADDITION 01 I 1 I 2 II 19 II 19 X 2 X 1 VI 2 VI 2 IV 2 IX 2 XI 2 VII 200 TO THE REPORTS REFERRED TO ABOVE, government in 2015. XII 200 THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED RECENTLY (IN POLISH): In the last few years, i.e. from June 2011, the perception of the community of interests of Poland and Germany in Europe has clearly deteriorated. While earlier · Economic Patriotism · Parents' Spending on Education of the interests of both countries were described by the largest group of Children in School Year 2017/2018 respondents as partly similar and partly different, the opinion is currently · Evaluation of Government's prevalent that they are mostly divergent. The percentage of respondents who Achievements after Two Years of Activity Do you think that the interests of Poland are of the opinion that both · Relations Among Neighbours and Germany in Europe are similar or divergent? countries currently have · Political Party Preferences in November divergent interests has VI 2011 19% 27% 39% 15% · Opinions about Parliament and increased by as much as 22 President percentage points since · Social Moods in November X 2017 11% 49% 25% 15% 2011 (up to 49%), while the · Attitude to Government after Two Years Mostly Mostly Partly similar, Don’t of Activity similar divergent partly divergent know p e r ce n ta ge o f p e o p l e · Trust in Politicians in November noticing the community of interests has decreased from 19% to 11%.

· Monologue, Dialogue or Quarrel – Talking Politics More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Polish: "Perception of Polish- German Relations", November 2017. Fieldwork for national sample: October 2017, N=1033. The · Trade Restriction on Sunday random address sample is representative for adult population of Poland. · Attitude to Gender Equality – Poland vs. Muslim Countries · Evaluations and Forecasts of Economic Opinions about war reparations Situation and Living Conditions of Households in Visegrad Group Countries · A policy That Does Not Build The question of war reparations from Germany has appeared in the Polish public Community debate after 1989 several times. In September 2004, the Sejm unanimously · Primary Care Physicians and Their adopted a resolution in which it stated that Poland had not yet received war Competencies reparations from Germany and called on the Polish government to take action in

this matter. That resolution of the Sejm was a reaction to success of any attempts to obtain reparations. Almost property claims of German citizens against Poland and an three-quarters of respondents (71%) are afraid that attempt to prevent their effective enforcement. The demanding compensation will spoil Polish-German German state separated itself from the claims advanced relations. The majority (60%) also agree with the opinion by the German displaced citizens, and the European Court that claims for payment of compensation for losses of Human Rights in Strasbourg in 2008 rejected the incurred during World War II may trigger claims of complaint submitted in this case by the Prussian Trust. Germans regarding the Western parts of Poland, formerly Currently, due to the policies of the governing party, the a part of Germany. Over half of the respondents (56%) think that it is too late to apply for war reparations. issue of war reparations has returned, although it is not Moreover, almost half (48%) are inclined to agree with the clear how seriously PiS (Law and Justice) is considering opinion that Germany is fulfilling its potential obligations applying for compensation, and to what extent it treats towards Poland, for instance due to the fact that they are this issue instrumentally. Doubts arise as to whether there the largest payer to the European Union budget used by are legal grounds to apply for reparations (according to a Poland. recent expert opinion of the Sejm Analysis Office - yes, according to the German side - no), although this is not Do you agree with the following statements? Regardless of whether the Polish government decides to apply for reparations or not, only a legal problem, but also a political one. Meanwhile, Germans should be reminded of their responsibility for the Second World War the German government, recognizing the German and the resulting obligations to Poland responsibility for the crimes of the Nazi regime, explicitly 36% 33% 17% 5% 9% rejects any claims, arguing that in 1953 Poland renounced reparations and repeatedly confirmed it later. The The demand for war reparations to Poland is morally right 34% 36% 12% 6% 12% expertise prepared for the Bundestag shows that possible claims lost their power at the latest at the time the "2 + 4" It is unlikely that Poland will receive war reparations from Germany treaty was signed in 1990. 30% 45% 10% 6% 9% More than half of adult Poles (54%) think that Poland The demand for war reparations (compensation) from Germany will spoil Polish-German should demand reparations from Germany for losses relations incurred during World War II. There are more than one- 29% 42% 16% 3%10% third of respondents against it (36%). Demands for reparations (compensation) may trigger Germans' claims regarding the Western lands, formarly a part of Germany

Do you agree that Poland should demand reparations 21% 39% 18% 7% 15% from Germany for losses incurred during World War II?

It is too late to demand war reparations from Germany 31% 23% 23% 13% 10% 25% 31% 21% 16% 7% Strongly agree Moderately agree Moderately disagree Strongly disagree Don't know Germany fulﬁlls its potential obligations towards Poland, e.g. due to the fact that it is the largest payer to the European Union budget used by Poland Despite significant public support for demanding war 13% 35% 20% 10% 22% reparations from Germany, the opinion prevails that by Strongly Moderately Moderately Strongly Don't raising this issue Poland may lose rather than gain. agree agree disagree disagree know

Do you think that by demanding from Germany reparations All the arguments are significantly related to the attitude (compensation) for losses suffered during World War II, to reparation claims towards Germany and to the general Poland may gain more or lose more? prediction of the effects of this initiative. Support for

31% 45% 24% claiming damages for war losses is most strongly

correlated with the belief in the moral validity of possible Gain Lose Don't know reparation claims and with the disapproval of the view Generally, Poles consider the reasons behind the that it is too late to demand war reparations. In turn, the demands for reparations from Germany to be right, but at opinion that by applying for reparations Poland may lose the same time to a greater or lesser extent share doubts more than gain, is most strongly associated with the belief and reservations regarding the sense of applying for that it is too late to undertake such actions and with the compensation. Most respondents believe that paying fear that it will spoil the Polish-German relations. reparations to our country is morally right (70%), and also think that Germany should be reminded of their More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in responsibility for World War II and the resulting Polish: "Poles on Reparations", November 2017. Fieldwork for national obligations (69%). At the same time, however, three- sample: October 2017, N=1033. The random address sample is quarters of all respondents (75%) do not believe in the representative for adult population of Poland. 2 Positive assessments of the economic situation and GDP Subjective vs. objective growth Positive assessment of the economic situation GDP growth indicators of the state 60 20% 50 15% of the economy and material 10% 40 5% living conditions 30 0% 20 -5%

The assessment of the economic situation in Poland 10 -10%

0 -15% recorded in recent months is the best since 1989. In the I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I second half of this year, for the first time over half of '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 respondents expressed satisfaction with the state of our Negative assessments of the economic situation economy, while the group giving negative ratings is the and the registered unemployment rate. Negative assessments Registered unemployment rate, smallest since the beginning of transformation. It is worth of the economic situation as of December 31 of a given year 100 50% noting that from the end of 2015, in the perception of the 90 45% 80 40% Polish economy, positive assessments outweigh the 70 35% negative ones. In addition to the current period, starting 60 30% 50 25% from 1989, we recorded the prevalence of positive over 40 20% 30 15% negative ratings only for about a year, from around mid- 20 10% 10 5% 2007 to mid-2008. 0% 0 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Evaluation of economic situation in Poland Material situation is of great importance for the 100% 90% perception of the economic situation of the country. Poles 80% Bad are more and more satisfied with the material conditions 70% 60% of their households, and we have observed a very 50% Neither good significant improvement in ratings from around 2014. The 40% nor bad 30% assessment of the material conditions of households 20% 10% Good registered in recent months is among the best among 0% I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I those recorded so far. '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 “Don't know” omitted. Evaluation of household material living conditions 70%

The best assessment of the condition of the Polish 60% Neither good nor bad economy in the history of CBOS surveys correspond with 50% the positive signals about it. The unemployment rate is 40% the lowest in over twenty-five years, and according to the 30% 20% latest economic forecasts, real GDP growth this year will Good Bad be the highest since 2011. In November, growth forecasts 10% 0% for Poland were raised to 4.2% in analyses of the National IV II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Bank of Poland and the European Commission. Economic '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 growth inland is stimulated by the good situation in Significant improvement of subjective opinions Europe. In turn, economic growth as well as the tightening corresponds in a significant way with objective indicators of the tax system have had a positive impact on the of material situation. Since 2013, there has been an budget. According to the predictions of various improvement in the labour market and, consequently, institutions, including the European Commission, the there has been a decrease unemployment. As a result of deficit of the public sector will be significantly lower than pressure to raise wages, real incomes are growing. The income situation of households is also improving, and, as assumed six months ago. is clear from more detailed data, it concerns all socio- Looking from a longer, nearly thirty-year perspective, one economic groups. The introduction of a child-raising can notice a certain cyclicality in the perception of the benefit (Family 500+ program) has had some significance economic situation, largely convergent with the classic for improving the income situation of households. economic cycles. When the economy is in the phase of Disposable income per person has been growing since expansion, these assessments usually improve, while in 2013, a nd since 2014 there has been a growth in periods of slowdown, criticism increases (apart from expenditure per person. In addition, the share of short-term fluctuations in the perception of the condition expenditures in incomes has been systematically of the Polish economy dependent on various current declining for many years, which gives households greater events). opportunities to save. 3 Positive assessments of the material conditions i.e. spouses (52% of respondents who declare that they of households and GDP growth have psychological support in difficult situations), parents

Positive assessment of the material conditions GDP growth (27%), siblings (27%) and children (27%). Relations with of households 80 20% friends are also very important (31%). In recent years there 70 15% are more and more informal relationships in Poland, 60 10% which translates into the fact that nowadays, spouses are 50 5% indicated less often than in 1999 as support, while 40 0% 30 partners are mentioned more frequently (12%). In this -5% 20 respect, the role of friends also increases, while the role of -10% 10 colleagues from work / school, neighbours, as well as 0 -15% I III I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I parents and parents-in-law, slightly decreases. '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Everyone has personal problems sometimes. More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Polish: Everyone needs to confide in someone or ask for advice. "Subjective vs Objective Indicators of Economy and Material Conditions", How many people are there who you can talk to about all November 2017. Data from CBOS surveys on random samples representative for your problems? adult population of Poland in years 1989-2017 and data of Central Statistical 12% Office. There is no one like that 9% 23% One person Social ties 22% 23% Two people 20% 29% The opinion is sometimes expressed that intense social Three or four people changes and the development of new technologies lead to 33% 10% Five to ten people the reduction of close interpersonal contacts and an 14% increase in the sense of loneliness. It is not reflected in X 2005 More than ten people 1% CBOS surveys. In total, two-fifths of adult Poles (41%) 1% IX 2017 2% Average: admit that there are situations when they experience Don't know X 2005 – 2,43 1% loneliness, although only a few (4%) are always or very IX 2017 – 2,71 often lonely. More than half of respondents (58%) never In addition to the fact that Poles almost without exception feel lonely. Since 2005, the percentage of people declaring have someone to talk to about their problems, in most that they have never experienced loneliness has increased cases they also have someone to ask for help, advice or a by as much as 24 percentage points. loan in a difficult life situation. What's more, the percentage of people who can count on support in this Are there situations when you feel lonely although type of difficult situation has been systematically growing there are different people around you? (%) since 1999 (a total increase by 10 percentage points). X 2005 2 7 29 27 34 1 Everyone is sometimes in a situation when suddenly IX 2017 13 18 19 58 1 everything collapses, e.g. there is no money, things go bad at work or at home, no plans come out, nothing goes well. Yes, I always Yes, very Yes, Yes, but No, never Don't feel that way often sometimes very rarely know Is there someone you can count on in a difficult situation,

An adult Pole has, on average, nearly three people with who will not refuse help, advice, loan, etc.? (%) whom he or she can talk about all problems. In the last VIII 1999 78 14 8 twelve years, the average number of persons providing X 2005 83 12 5 support during difficult times has significantly increased. VI 2012 86 12 2

The group of people who don't have anyone who could IX 2017 88 9 3 listen to them or give advice numbers 9% of respondents Yes, there is a person I can count No, there is no such person Don't (down by 3 points). on for help in every situation and I am left alone with all my problems know More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Polish: "Social Individuals you can count on are, in the opinion of Ties", November 2017. Fieldwork for national sample: September 2017, N=985. respondents, first of all the members of the close family, The random address sample is representative for adult population of Poland.

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