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Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited

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Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited U.S. Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Administration DOT HS 809-715 March 2004 Technical Report Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited National Center for Statistics and Analysis This publication is distributed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, in the interest of information exchange. The opinions, findings and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Department of Transportation or the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. If trade or manufacturers’ names are mentioned, it is only because they are considered essential to the object of the publication and should not be construed as an endorsement. The United States Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. DOT HS 809 715 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited March, 2004 6. Performing Organization Code NPO-101 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. William Deutermann 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)n code Mathematical Analysis Division, National Center for Statistics and Analysis National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 11. Contract of Grant No. US Department of Transportation NPO-101, 400 Seventh Street S.W. Washington, DC 20590 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Mathematical Analysis Division, National Center for Statistics and NHTSA Technical Report Analysis National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 14. Sponsoring Agency Code US Department of Transportation NPO-121, 400 Seventh Street S.W. Washington, DC 20590 15. Supplementary Notes 16. Abstract This report looks at the measurement of how effective motorcycle helmets are in preventing fatalities in motorcycle crashes. Based on a comparison of crashes involving motorcycles with two occupants, at least one of whom was killed, the method uses data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) to estimate helmet effectiveness. Technological changes over the past 15 years have led to improvements in helmet design and materials. Recalculating the effectiveness of helmets in preventing fatalities, using more recent data, shows that helmets have indeed improved in this respect. The effectiveness of helmets has increased from 29 percent in 1982 through 1987 to 37 percent over the years 1993 through 2002. The significance of this improvement is that over the same period, helmets have saved the lives of 7,808 riders. The potential number of lives saved over the period is even higher, at 11,915. Unfortunately, the declining rate of helmet use among motorcyclists has contributed to rising numbers of rider fatalities despite the improved life saving qualities of helmets. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Motorcycle, Helmet, Effectiveness, Fatal crash, This Document is available to the public through the Helmet laws, Fatality Analysis Reporting System National Technical Information Service, (FARS) Springfield, VA 22161 19. Security Classification (of this report) 20. Security Classification (of this page) 21. No of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 15 Form DOT F1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized Table of Contents Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................................1 Highlights.................................................................................................................................................................2 1.0 Introduction......................................................................................................................................................3 2.0 Methodology....................................................................................................................................................5 3.0 Revising Estimated Effectiveness....................................................................................................................9 3.1 Updating The Data.................................................................................................................................. 9 3.2 The Weighted Average Effectiveness................................................................................................... 14 3.0 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................................16 5.0 References......................................................................................................................................................17 Executive Summary Using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 1993 through 2002, this report recalculates the “effectiveness ” of helmets in preventing fatalities in motorcycle crashes. The resulting effectiveness of 37 percent represents a significant improvement over the previous estimate of 29 percent obtained using data from 1982 through 1987. The 37 percent effectiveness would mean that from 1993 through 2002 helmets saved 7,808 lives, a substantial increase compared with the estimate of 5,430 lives saved using the old effectiveness measure. The past fifteen years have seen significant advances in motorcycle helmet design and materials. As a result, the newer helmets afford a much greater degree of protection against potentially fatal head injuries. Based on a comparison of fatal crashes involving motorcycles with two occupants, at least one of whom was killed, NCSA calculates the “effectiveness” of helmets in preventing fatalities. Recalculating the effectiveness of helmets in preventing fatalities using more recent data shows that helmets have indeed improved in their ability to protect the wearer. Unfortunately, the potential benefits of improved helmets are not being realized, as fatalities continue to rise in response to declining helmet usage rates. Had all motorcyclists consistently worn proper helmets over the 1993 to 2002 time period, the number of lives saved would have been much higher at 11,915. Despite the fact that less than 3 percent of registered passenger vehicles are motorcycles, motorcyclist fatalities represent about nine percent of all passenger vehicle occupant fatalities. Considering that passenger car occupant fatalities are trending downward, policies that result in raising public acceptance of the protective value of helmets can have a significant impact on reducing the total number of lives lost annually on America’s highways. National Center for Statistics and Analysis, 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, DC 20590 1 Highlights q The state of the art in helmet design and materials has improved significantly over the past fifteen years, and their effectiveness in preventing fatalities is greater than previous estimates indicated. q As a result of these improvements, motorcycle helmets are currently estimated to be 37 percent effective in preventing rider fatalities, compared with the 1989 estimated effectiveness of 29 percent. q The higher effectiveness means that over the ten-year period from 1993 through 2002, motorcycle helmets have saved 7,808 lives, 2,378 more than was previously thought. q Effectiveness of 37 percent means that a rider can reduce his or her risk of suffering a fatal injury in a crash by over one-third simply by wearing a proper helmet. q Despite the improved performance of helmets, the incidence of fatal motorcycle crashes in the United States has been increasing in recent years, as the percentage of riders who use helmets has fallen from 71 percent to 58 percent nationally. National Center for Statistics and Analysis, 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, DC 20590 2 Motorcycle Helmet Effectiveness Revisited 1.0 Introduction The past fifteen years have seen significant advances in motorcycle helmet design and materials. As a result, the newer helmets afford a much greater degree of protection against potentially fatal head injuries. Despite these technological improvements, NHTSA is still using the 29 percent helmet effectiveness calculated from observed fatality data from the 1980’s. This report uses more recent data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) to update the estimated protective value of motorcycle helmets in the prevention of fatal head injuries and to estimate the total number of lives saved by helmets. An “effectiveness” of 29 percent means that use of a proper helmet can improve a rider’s chances of surviving a potentially fatal crash by almost one-third. The fact that motorcyclist fatalities represent about nine percent of all passenger vehicle occupant deaths, despite the relatively low numbers of motorcycles vis-à-vis other passenger vehicles traveling the nation’s highways, underscores the protective value of motorcycle helmets. In terms of lives saved, the 29 percent effectiveness means that over the recent ten-year period from 1993 through 2002, motorcycle helmets have saved 5,430 lives. This estimate is conservative, given the known improvements in helmet technology over the same period. If effectiveness were recalculated based on more recent mortality data, one would expect to see a higher effectiveness and a concomitant
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