Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Personal Travel in Britain Thesis
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Open Research Online The Open University’s repository of research publications and other research outputs A Strategy For Reducing Emissions Of Greenhouse Gases From Personal Travel In Britain Thesis How to cite: Hughes, Peter Samuel (1992). A Strategy For Reducing Emissions Of Greenhouse Gases From Personal Travel In Britain. PhD thesis The Open University. For guidance on citations see FAQs. c 1992 The Author Version: Version of Record Link(s) to article on publisher’s website: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.21954/ou.ro.00004d83 Copyright and Moral Rights for the articles on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. For more information on Open Research Online’s data policy on reuse of materials please consult the policies page. oro.open.ac.uk , .(.. ~C,y. j 3 ,') +~,.> Energy and Environment Research Unit Faculty of Technology A Strategy for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Personal Travel in Britain A thesis submitted to the Open University in candidacy for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Peter Samuel Hughes BSc August 1992 Abstract The presence of ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere has a warming effect on the biosphere, making the world habitable for life. Human activities, particularly energy use and deforestation, are increasing the concentration of these gases, and in particular carbon dioxide (CO;?). Many climatologists believe that the global temperature is beginning to rise as a result. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recommended that emissions of CO2 be cut by 60 per cent in order to stabilise the atmospheric concenaation of this gas and to minimise the resulting disruption to the world’s climate. Transport is currently Britain’s fastest growing source of carbon dioxide, the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas. An assessment is made of the relative contributions to CO2 emissions of different forms of travel, and trends in energy use are surveyed. Emissions of CO2 from ‘secondary’ sources, such as vehicle production, are also examined. A computer model called SPACE is described, which was developed in order to assess CO2 emissions under different policy scenarios up to the year 2025. A ‘business as usual’ scenario predicts that emissions will rise substantially, mainly as a result of an ongoing rise in road traffic. This contrasts with the Government’s stated aim of stabilising emissions of CO2 at the 1990 level by 2000. A modification of this scenario, in which technological improvements to vehicles are vigorously applied, shows a reduced growth in emissions. A third scenario then examines the effect of a combination of technological and demand management policies, and demonstrates a significant reduction in emissions. Scenario 3 adopts what are seen as fairly modest policy measures, making use of their synergistic effect. The main justification for this ‘non-radical’ approach is public and political acceptability. It is, however, recognised that most of the policy measures could be applied more vigorously if required if it is assumed that transport is allotted a less stringent target than other energy-consuming sectors, the reduction in emissions projected in Scenario 3 is consistent with the IPCC goal of atmospheric CO;? stabilisation. Data sets compiled as part of the SPACE model can be made available on request. ... 111 CONTENTS Page Introduction 1 Chapter One Global warming and climatic change 5 1.1 The issue of global warming 7 1.2 The greenhouse theory 7 1.3 Greenhouse gases 8 1.4 Historical trends in greenhouse gas concentrations 12 1.5 Climatic change 12 1.6 Effects of global warming 14 1.7 Future greenhouse emissions 17 1.8 summary 22 Chapter Two The nature of greenhouse emissions from personal travel 23 2.1 Defining a uansport system 25 2.2 Transport’s share of COZ emissions 28 2.3 The growth of energy use in transport 30 2.4 The wider view: non-operational energy demand tranSp0rt 41 2.5 Energy use and greenhouse emissions 45 Y Chapter Three Aspects of fuel consumption in motorised travel 51 3.1 The influence of fuel consumption on greenhouse emissions 53 3.2 Fuel economy in private cars 54 3.3 Fuel economy in buses and coaches 68 3.4 Fuel economy in rail vehicles 73 3.5 Fuel economy in aircraft 78 3.6 summary 81 Chapter Four ‘Business as usual’ carbon dioxide emissions from personal travel 83 4.1 The need for a model 85 4.2 The scenario approach: SPACE 85 4.3 Establishing a baseline: ‘Business as Usual’ 89 4.4 Population and car ownership 89 4.5 Transpon demand 92 4.6 Energy consumption 100 4.7 Results of Scenario 1 105 Chapter Five Measures for reducing carbon dioxide emissions 107 5.1 The need for policy changes 109 5.2 Approaches to controlling greenhouse emissions &om transport 110 5.3 Measures to promote fuel economy 116 5.4 Measures to promote alternative fuels 126 5.5 Measures to promote modified travel patterns 144 vi 5.6 Timescales of policy measures 162 5.7 Public acceptance of policy measures 163 5.8 Deployment of policy measures 164 Chapter Six Scenario 2: Business as usual plus ‘technical fixes’ 169 6.1 The use of ‘technical fixes’ 171 6.2 The effect on the car stock 176 6.3 Results of Scenario 2 182 Chapter Seven Scenario 3: Atmospheric stabilisation 185 7.1 The need for a more sningent target 187 7.2 Policy measures for atmospheric stabilisation 189 7.3 Assessment of policy measures 190 7.4 Constructing a stabilisation scenario 205 Chapter Eight Conclusions 207 8.1 Principal findings 209 8.2 implications for an overall COZ reduction strategy 210 8.3 Comparison with the Netherlands National Transport Plan 211 8.4 Non-operational emissions of CO2 212 8.5 Beyond 2025 213 8.6 Which way now? 213 8.7 A ‘do nothing’ world? 215 References 217 Appendices 229 viii LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Summary of key greenhouse gases produced by human activities 10 1.2 The 20 largest contributors to greenhouse forcing in 1988 11 1.3 National responses to global warming 19 1.4 Cuts in emissions needed for a stabilisation of greenhouse gases at present atmospheric levels 20 2.1 Total energy use from UK transport demand 26 2.2 Energy losses in the production of transport fuels 28 2.3 Bus and coach population, 1986 32 2.4 Journeys and travel distance per person, 1965 and 1985 34 2.5 Energy intensity measures for various manufacturing indusnies in 1979 42 2.6 Energy use for different purposes according to travel mode 42 2.7 Energy consumption for constructing and maintaining road and rail infrastructure 44 2.8 Transport’s emission of regulated pollutants in 1989 47 2.9 EC limit values for regulated pollutants 48 3.1 Average fuel economy of different engine sizes, 1986 60 3.2 Materials used in the Austin Metro 61 3.3 Public service vehicle fuel consumption 68 3.4 Specific energy consumption of buses and coaches (1986) 69 3.5 Primary energy consumption of rail stock in Britain 74 4.1 Government forecast of Great Britain’s population up to 2025 (million) 90 4.2 Distribution of population according to household car ownership in Scenario 1. 91 4.3 Population trends projected in Scenario 1 92 ix 4.4 Summary of the 1989 Road Traffic Forecasts 93 4.5 Assumed car occupancies for Scenario 1 up to 2025 (persons per car) 94 4.6 Bus and coach travel forecasts in Scenario 1 95 4.1 British Rail forecasts of passenger traffic to 1994/95 96 4.8 Rail traffic growth assumed in Scenario 1 96 4.9 Average rail occupancies, 1979-89 (persons per train) 97 4.10 Average rail occupancies in Scenario 1 (persons per train) 98 4.11 Growth in domestic air traffic projected in Scenario 1 98 4.12 Growth in motorcycle traffic in Scen'uio 1 99 4.13 Walking and cycling projections in Scenario 1 1O0 4.14 Fuel economy values assumed in Scenario 1 (ü1oOkm) 102 4.15 Fuel economy projections for buses and coaches in Scenario 1 103 4.16 Traffic disaibution and power supply for the rail sector in Scenario 1 104 4.17 Projected energy consumption for air travel in Scenario 1 104 4.18 Projected StNcture of the electricity supply industry 105 5.1 Taxation of passenger vehicles under the Ontario programme 123 5.2 Property tax payable on cars in Italy 124 5.3 Annual licence fees for cars in the Isle of Man 124 5.4 Relative greenhouse emissions per kilometre of different energy sources relative to petrol engines in the USA 140 5.5 Cost estimates for alternative fuel options in 2010 141 5.6 Policy measures for use in controlling COZ emissions 165 5.7 Areas of influence for each of the policy measures 166 X 6.1 illustrative example of a rebate/surcharge system for company car taxation 173 6.2 Illustrative example of a feebate scheme for car sales in Britain 174 6.3 Average and ‘benchmark’ fuel economy, 1986 (UlOOh) 178 6.4 Fuel economy improvements assumed in Scenario 2 (VlOOh) 179 7.1 Elasticity of public transport demand with respect to fares 198 7.2 Travel modes of commuters in southern California 200 xi LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 The carbon cycle 8 1.2 Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases since 1750 13 1.3 Global average temperature. since 900 AD 14 1.4 Impact on atmospheric CO2 concentrations of various reduction strategies 18 2.1 UK CO2 emissions by end-use in 1989 29 2.2 COZemissions by different trmSp0rt modes, 1990 29 2.3 Energy consumption by final user in the UK, 1960 and 1990 (heat supplied basis) 31 2.4 Rail passenger traffic in Britain, 1990 33 2.5 Passenger transport by mode, 1952 to 1990 35 2.6 Energy consumption in UK transport in 1970 and 1987 36 2.7 Primary energy requirements of different travel modes in Britain 38 2.8 The influences acting upon transport energy demand 39 2.9 Travel by residents of different settlement sizes, 1972 40 2.10 Energy consumption in the VTE subsector by fuel 43 2.11 Energy consumption in the production of a cu 43 3.1 Energy losses in a typical car journey 54 3.2 ‘Official’ and ‘empirical’ estimates of average car fuel economy 57 3.3 Contributions to overall drag coefficient in a typical car 63 3.4 The effect of speed on fuel economy (average speeds) 65 3.5 The effect of speed on fuel economy (constant speeds) 66 3.6 Use of energy in the operation of an urban bus 70 4.1 Sample spreadsheet (blank) from SPACE 87 ..