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Battlegrounds Poll-September 2005

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Battlegrounds Poll-September 2005 Battleground States Poll - September 28, 2006 September 28, 2006 Gubernatorial Races Democrats seem on track to reverse the balance of power in state governorships. Among battleground states included in the latest Zogby Interactive poll, Democratic candidates were ahead in 13 races, while Republicans led in five and one race was tied. In Zogby's poll earlier this month, Democrats led 12 states, Republicans six and one race was mixed. Zogby, in cooperation with The Wall Street Journal Online, is conducting a series of online polls that track 19 gubernatorial and 18 Senate races through Election Day. Taking into account governorships that aren't up for re-election and those that weren't included in the battleground polling because the incumbent party is widely expected to remain in power, the Democrats would hold 28 governorships and Republicans 21, if the results on Election Day were to match the latest polling. (One race, Iowa, had tied results in the latest poll.) That breakdown in power in the nation's governorships would mark a reversal from the current balance of power. Today, Republicans hold 28 governorships and Democrats 22. Six of the governors' races -- five led by Democrats and one led by a Republican -- were within the polls' margins of error, which ranged from 2.6 to 4.3 percentage points per candidate. The latest poll was conducted Sept. 19-25. Minnesota, which was colored gray in the prior poll, is blue this time as Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch maintained a slight lead against Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The prior poll was conducted before the state primary, in which Mr. Hatch defeated state Sen. Becky Lourey to win the Democratic slot on the ballot. In earlier Zogby polls, while Mr. Hatch led Mr. Pawlenty, the incumbent led in matchups against Ms. Lourey. Such "mixed" results have been colored gray. In Iowa, Republican Jim Nussle and Democrat Chet Culver are running neck and neck in the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack. Mr. Culver had edged to a lead in August after trailing Mr. Nussle throughout the year. But the contest has been tight. Neither candidate has had a lead this year that was greater than the polls' margin of error. Gov. Rod Blagojevich, the Democratic governor of Illinois who was once seen as vulnerable, has expanded his lead into double digits in recent polls. Judy Baar Topinka has failed to poll well among her Republican base, Zogby notes. In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell held a 10 percentage point lead over Republican Lynn Swann for a second month. Mr Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver, had pulled to within a few points of the lead earlier this year. Arnold Schwarzenegger pulled to a nine percentage point lead over Democratic challenger Phil Angelides. Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, who was Ralph Nader's vice presidential running mate in 2004, seems to pull votes from Mr. Angelides. Mr. Camejo has eight percent of the vote, while Libertarian Art Oliver has four percent. GUBERNATORIAL: ARIZONA Democratic incumbent Janet Napolitano holds a nine-point lead over her GOP rival Len Munsil, a social conservative who surged past Don Goldwater to win the Republican primary earlier this month. Napolitano was unopposed in her primary. For all of 2006, Napolitano has hovered within a point or two of 50% vs. potential rivals, and seems well-positioned in her re-election race, though she retains just a narrow majority. Libertarian Barry Hess draws 4% of the vote, mostly pulling from potential Munsil voters. GUBERNATORIAL: CALIFORNIA Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has held onto his come- from-behind lead. Challenger Phil Angelides is the Democratic nominee in a blue state, but sorely lacks the governor's star power. A recent blowup over insensitive Schwarzenegger comments caught on tape didn't appear to hurt the governor. Also, Green Party candidate Peter Camejo is drawing more votes away from Angelides than Libertarian Art Olivier is pulling from Schwarzenegger, Zogby notes. GUBERNATORIAL: COLORADO Rep. Bob Beauprez, a Republican and favorite of the White House, rebounded against Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter in the latest Zogby poll. Colorado is unusual: Despite a GOP registration edge, the state has been kind to Democrats in recent elections. Ritter is seen as a moderate, a Catholic who opposes abortion but has said he would always support a woman's right to choose. GUBERNATORIAL: FLORIDA Charlie Crist, the GOP attorney general, continues to hold a big lead over his challenger, Democratic Congressman Jim Davis, in the race to fill the seat that will be vacated by Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. Zogby notes that Davis is backed by just 75% of voters in his own party, far less than the 88% Crist gets among Republicans. GUBERNATORIAL: GEORGIA Sonny Perdue, the incumbent Republican governor, continues to hold a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Mark Taylor, the lieutenant governor of Georgia. Perdue holds a two-to-one lead among men, a narrow lead among women, and a lopsided 63% to 27% lead among white voters. Perdue's 2002 election was the crowning achievement of the transformation of the state that once elected Jimmy Carter into a GOP bastion. GUBERNATORIAL: ILLINOIS Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, once seen as vulnerable, has expanded his lead into double digits in recent polls. The moderate Republican nominee, State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, has failed to poll well among traditional Republican bases. Zogby notes that Topinka manages to run even among men, but among women she lags. She loses among whites, among blacks, and among Hispanics, Zogby finds. GUBERNATORIAL: IOWA GOP Congressman Jim Nussle and Democratic Secretary of State Chet Culver are running neck and neck in a state President Bush narrowly won in 2004. In this tight race to succeed Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack, Culver has taken a pro-choice position and his campaign has tried to paint Nussle as to the right of the electorate on the issue. A recent debate focused on crime and punishment, with key issues including a proposal to rebuild a prison and punishments for manufacturing methamphetamine. Neither candidate has led by more than the polls' margin of error this year. GUBERNATORIAL: MARYLAND Bob Ehrlich, who became the first Republican governor in 34 years when he defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002, continues to trail Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. In one-on-one matchups, O'Malley has held a double- digit lead the past three polls. GUBERNATORIAL: MASSACHUSETTS Massachusetts has elected Republican governors since Michael Dukakis departed but, with Gov. Mitt Romney opting against seeking re-election, the Democrats are running strong. Romney's lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey, trails Democrat Deval Patrick, a former assistant attorney general for civil rights. Patrick, who won the primary election earlier this month, has widened his lead over Healey in the latest two Zogby polls. GUBERNATORIAL: MICHIGAN Gov. Jennifer Granholm leads Republican challenger Dick DeVos, the Amway heir, by nine percentage points in polling that includes third-party candidates. In a one-on-one matchup, her lead is at its widest level since January. Zogby attributes Granholm's growing strength to a Democratic ad blitz and weakening of support for DeVos among his Republican base. GUBERNATORIAL: MINNESOTA Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who succeeded independent Jesse Ventura, remains in a tight race against Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch. While Hatch has edged ahead of Pawlenty in the past three polls, Hatch's lead is well within the poll's margin of error. Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson has consistently polled in single digits. GUBERNATORIAL: NEVADA Republican Rep. Jim Gibbons holds a lead over Democratic State Sen. Dina Titus but the race has tightened somewhat since the poll conducted in early September. Zogby notes that the candidates poll evenly among women, while Gibbons has a 50%- to-43% lead among men. Titus has the support of 91% of Democrats, while Gibbons is backed by 84% of Republicans. GUBERNATORIAL: NEW YORK State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer continues to hold tightly to his position as the leading candidate for governor of New York, after rival Democrat Tom Suozzi was removed from the race in the state's Sept. 12 primary. The GOP's candidate, lawyer John Faso, trails Spitzer by about 37 percentage points. GUBERNATORIAL: OHIO Republican Ohio Gov. Bob Taft's time is up due to term limits, and Democrats hope the investment scandal that engulfed him this year will mar his party's hopes to hold the governorship. GOP Secretary of State Ken Blackwell polls about nine percentage points behind the Democrats' candidate, Congressman Ted Strickland. GUBERNATORIAL: OREGON Incumbent Democrat Ted Kulongoski's lead over the Republicans' Ron Saxton tightened in the most recent poll with the inclusion of third-party candidates, including Green Party candidate Joe Keating, who raked in about 6%, and the Constitution Party's Mary Starrett, at about 5%. GUBERNATORIAL: PENNSYLVANIA Incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell remains ahead of Republican Lynn Swann, a former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver. In the early September poll, Rendell notched his widest lead so far this year, and he maintained that 10-percentage-point spread in the latest poll. GUBERNATORIAL: TEXAS Incumbent Rick Perry faces broad competition for re-election, with several strong third-party candidates as well as a Democratic rival. A five-way matchup including Democrat Chris Bell, author and musician Kinky Friedman, one-time Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Libertarian James Werner leaves Perry in the lead by about 11 percentage points; all the candidates except for Werner poll in the double-digits. GUBERNATORIAL: WISCONSIN Wisconsin Republicans see Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle as vulnerable in the 2006 race; his success could hinge on attempts to increase school funding and limit the state's rising property taxes.
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