FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES December 7 –9,2011 December Middle East in aChanging and Alliances Ideology, Power, Repor t fr om Washington Forum The 2011 Washington Forum

Washington Forum, FDD’s annual policy summit, brings together for discussions and debates a diverse group of foreign policy and national security professionals from Congress, the White House, the intelligence community, the Departments of State, Defense and Treasury, as well as diplomats, scholars, and journalists.

This year’s Washington Forum focused on the political transformations and security concerns in a changing Middle East. Experts examined the growing threat from Iran: its ongoing efforts to develop nuclear weapons, its relations with a broad range of terrorist groups, and the role it is attempting to play in the volatile and changing Arab world. Panelists also assessed the state of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the prognosis for Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the continuing struggle against the Assad dynasty in Syria, and strategic approaches to national and international security. Washington Forum provided an opportunity for key stakeholders to interact and for new policy ideas to emerge.

We invite you to watch the footage and read recaps from Washington Forum 2011 which, among other sessions, includes remarks by White House official Puneet Talwar, Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Rep. Ted Deutch (D-FL), Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH), and Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY). A highlight video is also available at: www. defenddemocracy.org/events/washington-forum.

Washington Forum 2011 Honorary Committee: Chair: Charles Bronfman

Kenneth Abramowitz Eric Javits Ken Schwartz Mark and Paula Argosh Lothar and Carlyn Mayer Dianne Sehler and The Lynde and Paul and Jane Bishop Charles Moed Harry Bradley Foundation Adam Bronfman David and Ruth Naftaly Robert J. Shillman (“Doctor Bob”) Eric Dezenhall Alan and Suzanne K. Peyser Jeff Solomon Alvin Dworman Harry Ploss Steven Stern Diana and Michael Epstein Mark Pruzanski M. Ron Wahid

On the Cover (Top Row) Amb. John Limbert, Rep. Howard Berman, John Hannah, Roya Hakakian, Jackson Diehl, Sen. Robert Menendez, Amb. Gary Doer (Bottom Row) Rep. Ted Deutch, Rep. Steve Chabot, Puneet Talwar, Amb. R. James Woolsey, Khairi Abaza, Rep. Eliot Engel, Dr. Catherine Dale A Letter from R. James Woolsey, Cliff May, and Mark Dubowitz

The year 1979 was transformative in the Middle East. The Shah fell, and the Islamic Republic of Iran arose. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. Religious fanatics for a time took over the Grand Mosque in Mecca and changed the thinking of Saudi rulers thereafter. Historians may come to view 2011 as no less consequential. Uprisings and revolutions broke out and regimes changed. Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan where he had long enjoyed safe haven. Iran moved closer to its ambition of nuclear weapons acquisition. FDD’s annual policy summit Washington Forum, focusing on “Ideology, Power, and Alliances in a Changing Middle East,” sought to take stock of these changes and to chart a way forward. Amb. R. James Woolsey, Chairman, FDD

Washington Forum came at a critical time on Capitol Hill, as legislators engaged in a spirited debate over a new set of sanctions designed to weaken Tehran by targeting the Central Bank of Iran. FDD provided members of Congress with critical research on how to sanction the Iranian regime effectively. We were delighted to have Representa- tives Howard Berman (D-CA), Steve Chabot (R-OH), Ted Deutch (D-FL), Eliot Engel (D-NY) and Senator Robert Menendez (R-NJ) deliver remarks detailing the legislative efforts to curb Iran. Several days later, Congress passed the National Defense Authoriza- tion Act, empowering the U.S. government to enact its boldest financial measures yet in the effort to halt the Iranian drive to develop nuclear weapons. Cliff May, President, FDD

The Obama Administration also weighed in atWashington Forum. Puneet Talwar, se- nior director for the Gulf States, Iran and Iraq at the National Security Council, noted that the White House was still considering a range of options. “If Iran does not change course, the pressure will grow,” he vowed. “We are determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

To discuss those options, FDD hosted a panel of Iran experts, including Roya Hakakian, author of Assassins of the Turquoise Palace, former National Security Agency analyst Mark Dubowitz, Executive Director, FDD John Schindler, and FDD scholars Emanuele Ottolenghi and Thomas Joscelyn.

Ron Prosor, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, also joined us to discuss the challenges posed by the Palestinians’ refusal to negotiate without concessions in ad- vance. This was a theme that we returned to again during a panel that featured FDD’s Jonathan Schanzer, David Makovsky of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Professor Nathan Brown of The George Washington University.

Another panel gathered former top policymakers to come up with solutions to Amer- ica’s most vexing problems. This included FDD Chairman and former CIA Director R. James Woolsey; FDD Executive Director Mark Dubowitz; FDD’s John Hannah, former

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 1 “FDD has been one of the most advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Warren Christo- committed and creative voices in pher; Ambassador John Limbert, who was held hostage in Iran and later became Washington regarding the Iran nuclear a deputy assistant secretary of state; and Stephen Rademaker, a former assistant issue and specifically Iran sanctions. Your secretary of state who today is a principal at the Podesta Group. ideas inspired important components of the sanctions bill I authored and passed Some of Washington’s top journalists moderated our sessions. Josh Rogin of For- last Congress when I was Chairman of eign Policy prompted a lively debate on Syria that included FDD’s Tony Badran the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Ammar Abdulhamid, along with Brian Katulis of the Center for American and your ideas continue to enrich my Progress and Andrew Tabler of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. thinking about sanctions as we move forward. My recent conversation in my Scott Shane of The New York Times conducted a tour d’horizon of America’s the- office with Mark Dubowitz was one of the aters of war, featuring author Paul Berman of The New Republic, Catherine Dale most enlightening I’ve had regarding Iran of the Congressional Research Service, Bill Roggio of FDD’s Long War Journal, sanctions and oil markets.” and Lt. Col. John Nagl (ret.) of the Center for a New American Security. Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA) The Washington Post’s Jackson Diehl tried to make sense of the “Arab Revolt” with “As Iran continues its pursuit of the help of Turkish expert Soner Cagaptay, along with three FDD experts: Khairi nuclear weapons, FDD has emerged Abaza, Reuel Marc Gerecht, and Lee Smith. as one of the most innovative think tanks in Washington when it comes to While the bulk of Washington Forum took place at the Newseum, one of Wash- developing effective policies to stop the ington’s newest landmarks, we were also thrilled to treat members of FDD’s lead- Islamic Republic before it’s too late. The ership to an event at the Canadian Embassy, just a few steps away from the Capi- kind of time-sensitive research, analysis, tol. Canadian diplomats engaged in a riveting conversation with Woolsey and and expertise that FDD provides the FDD Senior Advisor Robert “Bud” McFarlane on the urgent challenges of energy Congress is simply invaluable.” and fuel security, and the policies to address them. Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) We are pleased to share the Washington Forum 2011 highlights with you in the “FDD has been a valued resource to following pages. We invite you to view videos of the panels at www.defenddemoc- many agencies throughout the U.S. racy.org/events/washington-forum government in helping to address some of the nation’s most critical foreign This year’s Washington Forum, scheduled for December 6-7, 2012, promises to policy issues in a complicated world.” be equally memorable. We’re already making plans for it. We hope you will too. Puneet Talwar, Senior Director for the Gulf States, Iran, and Iraq at the Best regards, National Security Council

“It is the efforts of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies that is dedicated to these issues day in and day out – your work every day makes Amb. R. James Woolsey Cliff May Mark Dubowitz a real difference in these battles that we wage.” Rep. Ted Deutch (D-FL)

PAge 2 Washington Forum 2011 Speakers Khairi Abaza Rep. Howard Soner Cagaptay is a Senior Fellow at the Berman (D-CA) is a Senior Fellow and Direc- Foundation for Defense represents California’s 28th tor of the Turkish Research of Democracies. He is an district. Rep. Berman serves Program at The Washington expert on democratic re- on the House Foreign Af- Institute for Near East Poli- form in the Arab world, the fairs Committee, where he cy. He has taught courses at spread of terrorism, and was Chairman in the 110th Yale, Princeton University, the influence of the media and 111th Congresses and is Georgetown University, and on politics. His columns have appeared in currently a ranking member. He sponsored the Smith College on the Middle East, Mediter- various publications, including The New Re- Hezbollah Anti-Terrorism Act of 2011 to ensure ranean, and Eastern Europe. Dr. Cagaptay has public, Newsweek, Foreign Affairs, The National that U.S. taxpayer dollars are not used to fund written extensively on U.S.-Turkish relations, Interest, and The Weekly Standard. Mr. Abaza terrorist entities in Lebanon, and for other pur- Turkish domestic politics, and Turkish national- is also a commentator on several American poses. Rep. Berman is an effective legislative ism, publishing in scholarly journals and major and international television stations such as veteran who is considered one of the leading international print media, including The Wall Fox, BBC, France 24, Al-Jazeera, and CBC. voices on immigration and foreign policy in the Street Journal, Washington Times, Los Angeles House. Rep. Berman has also been one of the Times, and Jane’s Defense Weekly. He is a regu- Ammar strongest congressional supporters of Israel, lar columnist for Hürriyet Daily News, Turkey’s Abdulhamid sponsoring the Anti-Boycott Act in the House oldest and most influential English-language is a leading Syrian human in 2011, which prohibits American individuals paper. He appears regularly on Fox News, CNN, rights and pro-democracy and organizations from actively boycotting Is- NPR, Voice of America, al-Jazeera, BBC, CNN- activist and author. A Fel- raeli goods. Turk, and al-Hurra. low at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Paul Berman Rep. Steve Chabot and a member of FDD’s is a writer on politics and (R-OH) Syria Working Group, Mr. Abdulhamid is literature whose articles is a 15-year veteran of the also the Founder and Director of the Tharwa and reviews have appeared House of Representatives, Foundation, a grassroots organization that in The New York Times, The serving Ohio’s first district. works to break the Assad government’s in- New Republic (where he is Rep. Chabot is a member of formation blockade by enlisting a cadre of a contributing editor), The the House Committee on local activists and citizen journalists to re- New Yorker, Slate, The Vil- Foreign Affairs and in 2011 port on sociopolitical issues in Syria. lage Voice, Dissent, and various other interna- was named the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs tional journals. He has reported at length from Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Tony Badran Europe and Latin America and has written or Asia. Rep. Chabot has been a leader in efforts is a Research Fellow at the edited eight books, including, Power and the to isolate and delegitimize Israel at the United Foundation for Defense of Idealists: Or, the Passion of Joschka Fischer and Nations. He has sponsored legislation to lever- Democracies. His research Its Aftermath, and Terror and Liberalism, a New age U.S. contributions to the United Nations focuses on Lebanon, Syria, York Times best-seller in 2003. to persuade international bodies to refuse the and Hezbollah, their re- membership of an independent Palestinian state gional and international Dr. Nathan J. outside of a negotiated peace process. relations, and Islamist Brown groups in the Levant. Mr. Badran is author of is a professor of Political Dr. Catherine Dale the blog Across the Bay. His writings have ap- Science and International is a Specialist in International peared in a number of notable publications, Affairs at The George Security at Congressional including The Los Angeles Times, Forbes.com, Washington University, Research Service (CRS) National Review Online, Foreign Policy, The specializing in comparative where she provides analyti- Jerusalem Post, The Daily Star, and other aca- politics of the Middle East. cal support to members and demic and policy journals. Mr. Badran holds He also serves as a nonresident senior asso- staff to help frame critical regular briefings with both U.S. and E.U. gov- ciate at the Carnegie Endowment for Interna- national security debates. ernment officials. tional Peace. Dr. Brown has conducted research Dr. Dale is the lead CRS expert on strategy and for the United States Institute of Peace and has military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and served as a member of the international advi- she also spearheads CRS’s analytical focus on sory committees for drafting the Iraqi and Pal- national security reform. She previously served estinian constitutions. Dr. Brown is the author in Iraq as a political advisor to the U.S. Army, and of six books, including Participation, not Domi- has worked as the Special Assistant to the Spe- nation: Islamist Political Parties and Semiauthori- cial Representative of the UN Secretary-General. tarian Politics in the Arab World and Palestinian Politics after the Oslo Accords.

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 3 Rep. Ted Deutch Mark Dubowitz Roya Hakakian (D-FL) is Executive Director of the is a former associate pro- serves Florida’s 19th district. Foundation for Defense of ducer at CBS’s 60 Minutes He is a member of the House Democracies. His policy and a recipient of the Gug- Foreign Affairs Committee work focuses on Iran and genheim Fellowship in non- and a lifelong activist in the Syria, sanctions, and on the fiction. She is the author of pro-Israel community. Rep. use of technology to encour- the bestelling book Assassins Deutch is an established age democratic change. Mr. of the Turquoise Palace, and leader on Iran’s illicit nuclear weapons program. Dubowitz is head of FDD’s the memoir Journey from the During the 112th Congress, the Iran Transpar- Iran Energy Project, which provides research Land of No. Her opinions and essays have ap- ency and Accountability Act, his legislation to and analysis on energy sanctions and tracks the peared in numerous media outlets, including expose sanctionable business in Iran, was incor- role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in National Public Radio’s All Things Considered. porated into a larger, bipartisan package of sanc- Iran’s energy sector. He directs FDD’s Iran Hu- Ms. Hakakian is the founder of the Iran Human tions. As a Florida State Senator, Rep. Deutch man Rights Project, which provides research on Rights Documentation Center. passed the nation’s first Iran divestment legisla- Iranian human rights abuses and on sanctions tion and empowered Florida to divest over a bil- designed to hold accountable Iranian officials John Hannah lion dollars from Iran’s energy sector. and international companies supporting these John Hannah is a Senior Fel- abuses. Mr. Dubowitz co-leads FDD’s work on low at the Foundation for Jackson Diehl Syria sanctions against the regime of Bashar Defense of Democracies. is the Deputy Editorial al-Assad and is a founding member of the FDD Mr. Hannah worked as a se- Page Editor at The Wash- Syria Working Group. nior advisor on the staff of ington Post. He is an edito- Secretary of State Warren rial writer specializing in Christopher under President foreign affairs and writes Rep. Eliot Engel Bill Clinton. During President George W. Bush’s a biweekly column, which (D-NY) first term, Mr. Hannah served as Vice President often examines the Arab serves New York’s 17th Dick Cheney’s Deputy National Security Advisor Spring. He serves as a leading voice for a district. He is a member of to the Middle East, involved in U.S. policy toward strong U.S. stance on human rights and de- the House Foreign Affairs Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and the global war on mocracy in the Middle East. Mr. Diehl has Committee and is an origi- terrorism. During President Bush’s second term, been at The Washington Post since 1978, nal cosponsor of important Mr. Hannah served as the Vice President’s Na- where he has accrued a decade of experi- legislation to expand energy tional Security Advisor. ence at the paper’s bureaus in Buenos Aires, sanctions against the Assad regime. Rep. Engel Warsaw, and Jerusalem. Mr. Diehl has re- was the author of the Syria Accountability Thomas Joscelyn ceived numerous awards for reporting and and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of is a Senior Fellow and Execu- was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize for Edito- 2003, which successfully sparked international tive Director of the Center rial Writing in 2011. pressure on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon, for Law and Counterterror- and he sponsored a key resolution recognizing ism at the Foundation for Amb. Gary Doer Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel. Defense of Democracies. He is the Ambassador of Can- Rep. Engel is the founder and co-chair of the is also the Senior Editor of ada to the United States. House Oil and National Security Caucus and FDD’s The Long War Journal. He assumed his current has championed energy security throughout his Mr. Joscelyn is a nationally recognized expert on responsibilities as Canada’s political career. how al Qaeda and its affiliates operate around 23rd representative to the the world. He is a regular contributor to The U.S. in 2009. Prior to tak- Reuel Marc Weekly Standard and its online publications, The ing up his current position Gerecht Daily Standard and Worldwide Standard. He is the in Washington, Amb. Doer served as Premier is a Senior Fellow at the author of Iran’s Proxy War Against America. His of Manitoba for 10 years. During that time, Foundation for Defense of work has also been published by National Review he worked extensively with U.S. governors to Democracies and a former Online, The New York Post, and other publications. enhance Canada-U.S. cooperation on trade, Iran analyst at the CIA’s agriculture, water protection, climate change, Directorate of Operations. Brian Katulis and renewable energy. He focuses on Iran, Iraq, Af- is a Senior Fellow at the Cen- ghanistan, terrorism, and intelligence. Mr. Ge- ter for American Progress, recht is the author of The Wave: Man, God, and where his work focuses on the Ballot Box in the Middle East, as well as Know U.S. national security policy Thine Enemy: A Spy’s Journey into Revolutionary in the Middle East and South Iran, and The Islamic Paradox: Shiite Clerics, Sunni Asia. Mr. Katulis has served Fundamentalists, and the Coming of Arab Democ- as a consultant to numerous racy. He is a contributing editor for The Weekly U.S. government agencies, private corporations, Standard and a correspondent for The Atlantic and nongovernmental organizations on projects Monthly, as well as a frequent contributor to in more than two dozen countries, including Iraq, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Egypt, and Colom- other publications. bia. He is co-author of The Prosperity Agenda, a book on U.S. national security.

PAge 4 Washington Forum 2011 Amb. John Limbert Robert “Bud” Dr. Emanuele is a professor of interna- McFarlane Ottolenghi tional affairs at the U.S. is a member of FDD’s Lead- is a Senior Fellow at the Naval Academy. He previ- ership Council and served Foundation for Defense of ously served for 33 years in as President Ronald Rea- Democracies. He has done the Foreign Service, retiring gan’s National Security Ad- research exposing Iran’s with the rank of Minister- visor from 1983-1985. After energy companies and its Counselor. While in this leaving the Reagan White Islamic Revolutionary Guard capacity, Ambassador Limbert was President House, Mr. McFarlane founded his own en- Corps. Dr. Ottolenghi has advised foreign min- of the American Foreign Service Association ergy development company, Global Energy In- istries in Europe, and testified before the Ca- and Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of vestors LLC, and in 2000, he served as found- nadian and European parliaments. He recently Mauritania. Before that, he was Deputy Coor- ing Chairman of Energy and Communications published The Pasdaran: Inside Iran’s Islamic Rev- dinator for Counterterrorism in the U.S. State Solutions. Currently, McFarlane serves as olutionary Guard Corps, and is author of Iran: The Department. Ambassador Limbert holds the Chairman and CEO of McFarlane Associates Looming Crisis – Can the West Live with Iran’s Nu- Department of State’s highest award — the Inc., developing energy projects in Russia, Af- clear Threat? Dr. Ottolenghi writes widely in the Distinguished Service Award — and other rica, and the Middle East, as well working with international media, including The Wall Street department awards, including the Award for non-profit organizations to develop ways to Journal, Newsday, Foreign Affairs, Commentary, Valor, which he received after fourteen months utilize alternative forms of energy and reduce National Review Online, Middle East Quarterly, as a hostage in Iran. U.S. reliance on foreign oil. and The Guardian. He has a column in the British monthly, Standpoint Magazine. Previously, Dr. David Makovsky Sen. Robert Ottolenghi headed the Transatlantic Institute in is the Ziegler distinguished Menendez (D-NJ) Brussels, where he resides. fellow and director of the is a member of the Senate Project on the Middle East Foreign Relations Commit- Amb. Ron Prosor Peace Process at The Wash- tee and Chairman of the is Israel’s Perma- ington Institute for Near East Subcommittee on Western n e n t Representative to the Policy. He is also an adjunct Hemisphere, Peace Corps, United Nations. With over lecturer in Middle Eastern and Global Narcotics Af- two decades of experience studies at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. fairs as well as Chairman of the Subcommit- in Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Nitze School of Advanced International Studies tee on Housing, Transportation, and Commu- Affairs, Amb. Prosor served (SAIS). Before joining The Washington Institute, nity Development. After 9/11, Sen. Menendez as Israel’s Ambassador to Mr. Makovsky was a journalist based in Israel for earned national recognition for his leadership the United Kingdom from 2007-2011, Direc- many years covering the peace process. He is in reforming the country’s intelligence, securi- tor General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the former executive editor of the Jerusalem Post, ty, and public health systems, and for fighting from 2004-2007, Chief of Staff to the Foreign was diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz, and to establish an independent commission to in- Minister Silvan Shalom from 2003-2004, and served for 11 years as the U.S. News and World vestigate the terrorist attacks on our country. Senior Deputy Director General of the Ministry Report Jerusalem correspondent. His many pub- Most recently, he co-authored with Senator in 2004. As an officer in the Artillery Division lications include Making Peace with the PLO: The Mark Kirk (R-IL) an amendment to sanction of the IDF, Mr. Prosor attained the rank of Ma- Rabin Government’s Road to the Oslo Accord and the Central Bank of Iran, which the Senate jor and is a graduate of the IDF Battalion Com- Myths, Illusions, and Peace: Finding a New Direction passed unanimously. manders. for America in the Middle East. Lt. Col. John Nagl Stephen Rademaker Clifford May (USA, Ret.) is a principal at the Podesta is President of the Founda- is the President of the Group. He has a wide range of tion for Defense of Democ- Center for a New Ameri- experience on security issues racies. He has had a long can Security. He is the in the White House, the State and distinguished career in author of Learning to Eat Department, the U.S. Senate, international relations, jour- Soup with a Knife: Coun- and the House of Representa- nalism, communications, terinsurgency Lessons from tives. Mr. Rademaker served and politics. Mr. May spent Malaya and Vietnam and was on the writing as Assistant Secretary of State from 2002 through nearly a decade with The New York Times as a team that produced the U.S. Army/Marine 2006, heading three bureaus of the State Depart- reporter in both New York and Washington, an Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual. His ment. He directed the Proliferation Security Initia- editor of The New York Times Sunday Magazine, writings have also been published in several tive, crafted nonproliferation policy toward Iran and as a foreign correspondent. He is a frequent newspapers and journals, including The New and North Korea, as well as led strategic dialogues guest on national and international television York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall with Russia, China, India, and Pakistan. In 2007, Mr. and radio news programs including CNN and Street Journal, and Foreign Policy. Rademaker served as Senior Counsel and Policy MSNBC, providing analysis and participating in Director for National Security Affairs for then-Sen- debates on national security issues. He writes a ate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN). Previously, weekly column that is nationally distributed by Mr. Rademaker served as General Counsel of the Scripps Howard News Service and is a regular Peace Corps, Associate Counsel to the President in contributor to National Review Online, The Ameri- the Office of White House Counsel, and as Deputy can Spectator and other publications. Legal Adviser to the National Security Council.

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 5 Bill Roggio Dr. John R. Schindler Andrew Tabler is a Senior Fellow at the is a Professor of National is a Next Generation fellow Foundation for Defense Security Affairs at the U.S. in the Program on Arab Poli- of Democracies and Edi- Naval War College. He tics at The Washington In- tor of FDD’s The Long War also serves as Chairman of stitute for Near East Policy, Journal. He is the President the NATO Partnership for where he focuses on how of Public Multimedia Inc, Peace Consortium’s Coun- the United States can en- a nonprofit media organi- tering Terrorism Working gage with Syria in a way that zation with a mission to provide original and Group, and a Senior Fellow at Boston Univer- best advances U.S. interests. The co-founder accurate reporting and analysis of the War on sity’s International History Institute. Prior to and former editor-in-chief of Syria Today, Syria’s Terrorism. Mr. Roggio embedded with the U.S. joining the NWC faculty, Dr. Schindler served first private-sector English-language magazine, Marine Corps and U.S. Army in Iraq in 2005, for nearly a decade with the National Security Mr. Tabler achieved unparalleled access to 2006, and 2007, and with the Canadian Army Agency as an expert in counterespionage and Bashar al-Assad’s Syria. Over 14 years of living in Afghanistan in 2006. His articles have been counterterrorism, with operational experience in the Middle East, Mr. Tabler accrued valuable published in The Weekly Standard, The National in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. A for- experience in the region. Mr. Tabler has pub- Review, The New York Post, The Toronto Times, mer FDD Academic Fellow, he has published lished widely, including in The New York Times, and Die Weltwoche. He presents regularly at widely on intelligence and terrorism, and is the New York Times Magazine, the International the U.S. Air Force’s Contemporary Counterin- the author of Unholy Terror: Bosnia, Al-Qa’ida, Herald Tribune, Newsweek, and Foreign Policy. surgency Warfare School at Hulbert Field on and the Rise of Global Jihad and co-author of the media and embedded reporting. The Terrorist Perspectives Project: Strategic and Puneet Talwar Operational Views of Al-Qa’ida. is the Senior Director for the Josh Rogin Gulf States, Iran and Iraq at is a staff writer for Foreign Scott Shane the White House National Policy Magazine, covering is a reporter in the Wash- Security Council. He is re- national security and foreign ington bureau of The New sponsible for overseeing policy, and writes the daily York Times, where he cov- U.S. policy in Iran, Iraq, Ye- Web column The Cable. Pre- ers national security, in- men, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, viously, Mr. Rogin covered telligence, and terrorism- Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. He advises defense and foreign policy related topics. Before President Obama, Vice President Biden, Na- as a staff writer for Congressional Quarterly, writ- working for The New York tional Security Adviser Tom Donilon, Deputy ing extensively on Iraq, Afghanistan, Guantá- Times, Mr. Shane was a reporter for The Bal- National Security Adviser Denis McDonough, namo Bay, U.S.-Asia relations, and the defense timore Sun, where he was the Moscow corre- and Homeland Security Adviser John Bren- industry. Mr. Rogin covered military moderniza- spondent from 1988 to 1991. Mr. Shane is the nan. A foreign policy veteran with more than tion, cyber warfare, space, and missile defense author of Dismantling Utopia: How Information 20 years of experience, Mr. Talwar previously for Federal Computer Week Magazine. He has Ended the Soviet Union. served as the chief Middle East advisor to Vice also worked at the House International Rela- President Biden during his tenure on the Sen- tions Committee, the Embassy of Japan, and Lee Smith ate Foreign Relations Committee. As a chief the Brookings Institution. Mr. Rogin’s reporting is a Fellow at the Founda- interlocutor with top government officials has been featured on CNN, MSNBC, C-SPAN, tion for Defense of Democ- throughout the Middle East, Mr. Talwar played CBS, ABC, NPR, and several other outlets. racies. He is the author of a prominent role in the Iraq War debate and the The Strong Horse: Power, ratification of the Chemical Weapons Conven- Dr. Jonathan Politics, and the Clash of Arab tion in the Senate. Schanzer Civilizations. He contributes is Vice President of Re- to The New York Times, The Amb. R. James search at the Foundation New Republic, Slate.com, the Boston Globe, Woolsey for Defense of Democra- Wired, and The Weekly Standard, where he is is Chairman of the Founda- cies. He worked as a ter- a senior editor. Mr. Smith also writes a column tion for Defense of Democ- rorism finance analyst at for Tablet Magazine called, “Agents of Influ- racies and former Director the U.S. Department of ence.” He has been a guest on radio and tele- of Central Intelligence. He the Treasury and for several other U.S.-based vision, including Fox News and National Public is also Chair of Woolsey think tanks. Dr. Schanzer recently testified be- Radio. Mr. Smith has worked at a number of Partners LLC and a venture fore the House Foreign Relations Committee journals, magazines, and publishers includ- partner with Lux Capital Management. In ad- on U.S. aid to the Palestinian Authority. Last ing the Hudson Review, Ecco-Press, Atheneum, dition, he is a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s year he published a monograph with FDD’s Grand Street, GQ Magazine, and Talk Magazine. Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. Ambassa- executive director Mark Dubowitz titled Pales- dor Woolsey previously served in the U.S. gov- tinian Pulse: What Policymakers Can Learn From ernment in five different capacities. He held Palestinian Social Media. In 2008, Dr. Schanzer Presidential appointments in two Republican published Hamas vs. Fatah: The Struggle for and two Democratic administrations. Palestine, the only book on the market that analyzes the internecine conflict between the two most powerful Palestinian factions.

PAge 6 Washington Forum 2011 Wednesday, December 7, 2011 Opening Reception at the International Spy Museum Representative Ted Deutch (D-FL)

Nicolette Mayer, Carlyn Mayer

Representative Ted Deutch (D-FL) speaks to FDD friends and supporters at the International Spy Museum. Nira Abramowitz, Mark Pruzanski, Ken Schwartz, Sebastian Gorka FDD’s friends and supporters gath- sored with Representative Robert Dold Deutch said Iran’s leaders fear their ered at the International Spy Museum (R-IL). The legislation has since been own “Arab Spring,” and warned that in Washington, D.C., for our annual folded into the Iran Threat Reduction they may take harsher measures to Washington Forum opening reception. Act, which passed and was signed into tighten their grip on power. As it is, he In addition to gaining exclusive access law shortly after the conference. said, Tehran is actively aiding Syrian to the museum, the opening recep- President Bashar Assad in his brutal tion featured counterterrorism tools “The bill not only imposes mandatory crackdown on the Syrian people. developed by FDD’s technology part- sanctions on Iran’s worst human rights ners. Participants witnessed firsthand abusers—including those implicated “Reports have estimated that Iran has how this cutting-edge software assists in the violence following the 2009 elec- provided Syrian security services with the U.S. intelligence community in its tions that were stolen from the Iranian more than $6 billion in aid, includ- counterterrorism efforts. people,” Deutch said, but it also makes ing weapons, surveillance equipment,

“Reports have estimated that Iran has provided Syrian security services with more than $6 billion in aid, including weapons, surveillance equipment, and technology to monitor email, cell phones, and social media.”

Representative Ted Deutch (D-FL)

Representative Ted Deutch (D-FL) it United States policy to support the technology to monitor email, cell delivered remarks at the invitation- Iranian people’s efforts to bring about phones, and social media,” Deutch only opening reception. He called Iran democratic reform, to help them access said. Iran also has sent members of “the single greatest threat to interna- and share information freely and safely, its elite Quds Force to train Assad’s tional security,” and spoke about the and to deny Iran the ability to continue forces. Deutch praised FDD for play- Iran Human Rights and Democracy to oppress its own people. ing an instrumental role “in helping Promotion Act, which he co-spon- to identify many of the technologies

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 7 Bruce Lane, Stanley Tate, David Naftaly, Mark Dubowitz, Carlyn Mayer, Lothar Mayer, Benjamin Weinthal

Dianne Sehler, Robert Norton, Claudia Rosett Charlie Moed, Mark Pruzanski Rep. Deutch, Ken Schwartz

used by the Iranian regime to repress enrichment level needed to produce a “It is only a short jump from its people.” nuclear weapon.”

20 percent enriched uranium The Iranians, Deutch said, have a vest- Deutch also noted that Iran is at a to the 90 percent enrichment ed interest in seeing that Assad remains crossroads. With cracks in President in power. Earlier in 2011, the lawmaker Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s base of sup- level needed to produce a said, Iran began constructing a $23 port, the violent storming of the British million base in Syria to house weap- Embassy in Tehran in late November, nuclear weapon.” ons. “Syria serves as the conduit for and the thwarted plot to assassinate the Representative Ted Deutch (D-FL) most weapons shipments to Hezbollah, Saudi ambassador to the U.S., Iran is and to Hamas and other terrorist orga- “more isolated from the international nizations,” that attack both Israel and community than ever before.” America, he said. It is urgent, he said, that the U.S. and its Deutch issued an unequivocal warning allies continue to pressure the Iranian about Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons. regime through economic and human rights sanctions. “We know that the regime is tripling its output of 20 percent enriched uranium Deutch vowed to continue to do his under the guise of powering a medi- part in Congress “to pass the toughest cal research reactor,” Deutch said, and sanctions legislation, including lan- is continuing to install advanced cen- guage designating the Central Bank of trifuges at an underground facility. “It Iran as financing terrorism and prolif- is only a short jump from 20 percent eration activity, and to work with our enriched uranium to the 90 percent international partners to do the same.”

PAge 8 Washington Forum 2011 Thursday, December 8, 2011 Keynote Address Ambassador Ron Prosor, Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations

Prosor contrasted Abbas’ speech with statements made in 1995 by Jordanian King Hussein, who spoke of “all the children of Abraham” and referred to Israel as the “birthplace of three reli- gions.” Similarly, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat spoke of the land of Moses, Jesus, and Muhammad in his landmark speech to the Knesset in 1977.

Prosor declared that Palestinian efforts to seek recognition of statehood at the UN amounted to a distraction that has likely reached a dead end because “they don’t have the nine votes” they Ambassador Ron Prossor need to advance the request in the Security Council. Israel’s ambassador to the United Such a “right of return,” he said, would Nations says the largest impedi- mean the destruction of the State of Direct negotiations are the only way ment to peace between Israel and the Israel. “Even people on the [Israeli] left to move forward, he said, noting Palestinians is the Palestinians’ quest would not sign something like that,” he that Palestinian unilateral steps will for the right of return, coupled with said. While Palestinian officials who not work. “When we did unilateral their refusal to engage in direct nego- have participated in negotiations know steps in Gaza, it did not work,” he tiations without preconditions. that, the people in the Palestinian street said, referring to Israel’s 2005 disen- do not, he said. gagement from Gaza. Israelis viewed In his keynote address, which kicked the pullout as a show of strength, he off the Foundation for Defense of To bolster his argument, Prosor said explained, but Hamas had a different Democracies’ 2011 annual Washington it was no accident that in Mahmoud narrative. They viewed the Israelis “as

“Direct negotiations are the only way to move forward. Palestinian unilateral steps will not work.” Ambassador Ron Prosor, Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations

Forum at the Newseum, Ambassador Abbas’ UN address in September, the running away with their tail between Ron Prosor also discussed the Arab Palestinian president spoke about their legs.” Spring and Iran’s nuclear activities. Muslim and Christian connections to the land, but said nothing of Jewish “Peace with Egypt was not imposed, Prosor believes that Palestinians are ones. Prosor called this a “deliber- it was negotiated. Peace with Jordan saying: “We want an independent ate attempt to deny the unbroken and was not imposed, it was negotiated,” Palestinian state, but we want our peo- unbreakable bond between Jews and he said. Only direct meetings can ple to come to [live in] the Jewish state.” the land.” achieve something, he continued. “At

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 9 the end of the day, that’s the only way forward.”

Prosor spoke of “triple standards” held by the international communi- ty: There is a “standard for democra- cies, a standard for dictatorships, and a special standard for Israel.” As an example, he cited the UN’s Human Rights Council, whose Article 4 deals with human rights worldwide, while Article 7 deals solely with Israel.

Israel’s right to defend itself Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Amb. Haim Waxman, Amb. Ron Prosor

is being eroded. While the

international community is

very vocal when it comes to

reprimanding Israel, that same

community “usually stutters

or mumbles” when it comes to

chastising the Palestinians. the Palestinians, but so reluctant to dangerous as nuclear weapons… If we Ambassador Ron Prosor support the Palestinians financially. don’t stand up today and now, don’t Recent Wikileaks cables, Prosor said, be surprised if the strategic environ- demonstrate that Arabs do not lose ment in the Middle East will change Meanwhile, Israel’s right to defend itself sleep over the Palestinian-Israel con- completely.” is being eroded, Prosor said. While the flict, but over Iran. international community is very vocal The effects of Iranian influence in Iraq, when it comes to reprimanding Israel, Prosor also suggested that Washington Syria, and Egypt are worrisome, he that same community “usually stutters focus on what Iran is doing beyond said, although few Israeli officials say it or mumbles” when it comes to chastis- nuclear weapons. Its dangerous rheto- that publicly. “Anything we say would ing the Palestinians. ric continues to escalate, as it threat- basically be held against us,” he said. ens to “erase Israel off the map.’” According to conventional wisdom, Concluding on a positive note, Prosor “the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the The first time Iranian President said that 133 UN member nations major conflict in the Middle East, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad mentioned supported an Israeli proposal to make if you solve that conflict, you solve this, people were shocked, Prosor said. farming technology more accessible to all the other conflicts,” Prosor said. But every successive time he echoes African nations. Israel’s ambassador to However, the Arab Spring and grow- those words, the shock diminishes. the United Nations seeks support for ing worries of an Iran nuclear weapon “The repetition of things and mak- the “good stuff that Israel is doing that have proved otherwise. ing them more legitimate by repeat- the world doesn’t know about.” ing them and repeating them is as Prosor wondered aloud why the Arab states were so concerned about

PAge 10 Washington Forum 2011 Evolution of The Iranian Threat Roya Hakakian, Journalist and Author of Assassins of the Turquoise Palace Thomas Joscelyn, FDD Senior Fellow Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi, FDD Senior Fellow Dr. John Schindler, Former National Security Agency counterterrorism expert Moderator: Clifford D. May, FDD President Roya Hakakian, Journalist and Author

Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi, Senior Fellow, FDD

Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi, Dr. John Schindler, Roya Hakakian, Thomas Joscelyn, Cliff May Cliff May, President, FDD

The benefit of military action against Iran Schindler agreed, “It would be a god- “If the option is doing nothing or B-2 is a hotly contested issue. Roya Hakakian, send for the regime.” raids, the answer is always going to be an Iranian-born author and journalist, nothing,” said Schindler, now a pro- and Dr. John Schindler, former National Hakakian and Schindler were respond- fessor at the U.S. Naval War College. Security Agency expert in counterterror- ing to a question from FDD Chairman However, he added, “If the cost is ism and counterespionage, both warned and former CIA Director R. James judged worthwhile, let’s roll. But, the that an American military attack on Woolsey, who proposed a hypothetical consequences would be dire, and we the facilities controlled by Iran’s Islamic scenario to the panelists: The president may only be buying time.” Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of the United States learns that within would have dire consequences. three months, Iran will have opera- Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi, a senior fel-

Hakakian cautioned against playing into the Iranian leaders’ hands. If the “If the United States attacks, we will have played United States attacks, she said, “we will Santa to the wishes of the Iranian regime.” have played Santa to the wishes of the Iranian regime.” Citing both the foiled Roya Hakakian, Journalist and Author plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. in a bombing at a Washington tional nuclear weapons and has been low at FDD, added that while many restaurant in October and the suc- working with Venezuela, so it could believe the Iranian people would rally cessful attack on the British Embassy conceivably be able to strike the U.S. around the regime in the event of an in Iran in late November, she added, How would Iran react, Woolsey asked, attack, he is not so certain. Ottolenghi “they are doing precisely what they if the president ordered strikes on all said that while some believe the world can to provoke war. I wouldn’t want to the IRGC’s facilities? will adjust to a nuclear Iran, just as it give them a gift.” adjusted to a nuclear Soviet Union,

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 11 Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi, Dr. John Schindler, Roya Hakakian, Thomas Joscelyn, Cliff May

“implications of a nuclear Iran … may be just as bad and possibly much worse” than the consequences of an attack.

Dismantling Iran’s clerical regime Dr. John Schindler, Former NSA counterterrorism Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow, FDD official December 12, 2011 Schindler agreed, calling it a “huge “What Iran does in and out of the country goes “The American government blind spot” for the U.S. government hand-in-hand. It is inseparable,” said [Roya Hakakian] the critically acclaimed author of has been operating under the and terrorism experts. several books on Iran.

While speaking on the panel “Evolution of the assumption that there is no state Joscelyn said the only reason that there Iranian Threat” at the Foundation for Defense is not a full alliance between Iran and of Democracies (FDD) Forum last week, she sponsorship of al-Qaeda, but the called for a comprehensive policy toward Iran al-Qaeda is the latter’s reluctance “to be that is not just nuclear-based. owned and beholden to anyone.” 9/11 Commission found pages and Ottolenghi warned of the political, pages of links and recommended Hakakian noted that inside Iran, economic, and military strength of the President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad IRGC. Along with its military strength, further investigations. has “lost any legitimacy or any popu- the IRGC’s huge economic influence larity he had when he took office.” She and allegiance to the Supreme Leader Those investigations have not implied that Iran was ripe for political made it a political power, Ottolenghi taken place.” change from within. said. “They are the veritable power Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow, FDD behind the throne,” he said. “It is very Could change come before Iran reach- important that the international com- es the nuclear threshold? This could munity continue to go after them “The American government has been negate the need for intervention. relentlessly, aggressively.” operating under the assumption that there is no state sponsorship Schindler warned a nuclear Iran would Another FDD senior fellow, Thomas of al-Qaeda,” he said, but the 9/11 mean radical change for the entire Joscelyn, said the conventional wis- Commission found pages and pages of region. If Iran has a nuclear weapon on dom that Sunnis and Shiites don’t col- links and recommended further inves- Monday, he said, the Saudis will have laborate is a myth. “This is so flatly tigations. Those investigations have not one by Wednesday and the Turks won’t false,” he said, pointing to Iran’s sup- taken place. be very far behind. port for al-Qaeda and for the Taliban in Afghanistan.

PAge 12 Washington Forum 2011 The Syrian Factor: The Middle East With And Without The Assad Dynasty Ammar Abdulhamid, FDD Fellow Tony Badran, FDD Research Fellow Brian Katulis, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress Andrew Tabler, Next Generation Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Moderator: Josh Rogin, Foreign Policy

Tony Badran, Research Fellow, FDD

Brian Katulis, Tony Badran, Andrew Tabler, Ammar Abdulhamid, Josh Rogin Ammar Abdulhamid, Fellow, FDD

More international action is necessary Washington send a special envoy to He also advocated identifying groups against the Assad regime—maybe even work with Assad’s opposition. He said that the U.S. would want to empower military action. That was the message the Free Syrian Army—composed if and when Assad is deposed. Such from panelists on this panel that grap- of defectors from the regular army, groups need to join together and pres- pled with questions surrounding Syria. who face the death penalty if they are ent the international community with caught—is emerging as the strongest a signed covenant in which they vow For weeks, Syrian protesters had been opposition force. If the FSA “is not sup- to protect human rights, he said. demanding foreign intervention, a no- fly zone and safe havens, said Ammar If you want to have influence with the Free Syrian Army, “you Abdulhamid, an FDD fellow and have to become the institute that is influencing them and giving Syrian-born activist. The protesters them advice.” “want a more proactive international Ammar Abdulhamid, Fellow, FDD role,” he said, noting that the interna- tional response has been completely ported and encouraged to put all the Andrew Tabler, a fellow at The inadequate. The Western decision not [opposition] groups under its wings, Washington Institute for Near East to put a military option on the table it could be a dangerous situation,” he Policy, and a co-founder of Syria assures President Bashar Assad “that said, as smaller groups may become Today, Syria’s first private-sector he can continue doing whatever he radicalized if left to themselves. English-language magazine, pointed wants.” out that the Obama Administration’s If you want to have influence with the policy toward Syria has evolved. Abdulhamid argued that the United FSA, Abdulhamid continued, “You have Whereas Washington previously States should intervene in Syria to to become the institute that is influenc- looked at Syria through the lens prevent a civil war, and suggested that ing them and giving them advice.” of the Arab-Israeli peace process,

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 13 Brian Katulis, Senior Fellow, Center for American Andrew Tabler, Next Generation Fellow, The Josh Rogin, Foreign Policy Progress Washington Institute for Near East Policy

he said, it now looks at Syria as an Qatar or Saudi Arabia wouldn’t work Tabler added that Turkey or the Arab Iranian proxy. because they were “weak reeds.” League might create a buffer zone inside Syria, along the Turkish frontier, Iraq comes into the picture, too, said Katulis countered that the Obama to give Syrian dissidents a safe haven. A Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Administration’s policy has been effec- no-fly zone might be possible as well, Center for American Progress, not- tive, first in applying sanctions, and but given Syria’s extensive air defenses, ing that Iraq is Syria’s largest trading then calling on Assad to step down, all it would be harder to establish than the partner. In his view, if the U.S. really the while being mindful of the over- no-fly zone in Libya in 2011. wants to talk about supporting regime arching threat of Syrian-supported ter- change, Iraq is going to be key. rorist networks. Noting that the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda sympathizers were win- “FDD has been a valued He likened criticisms of President ning free elections in Egypt, one mem- resource to many agencies Obama’s policy of “leading from ber of the audience asked what could behind” to Tom Sawyer’s getting oth- be done to assure that this wouldn’t be throughout the U.S. government ers to paint the fence. The fence got repeated in Syria. in helping to address some of painted, he said, and “the adminis- the nation’s most critical foreign tration understood that Turkey was Badran explained that though the going to have leverage.” Assad regime had severely damaged policy issues in a complicated the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s, world.” Discussing sanctions, Tabler urged the organization would still very likely Puneet Talwar, Senior Director patience, saying that sanctions take play a role today. However, Badran time to work. The Europeans pur- said that the Sunni community in Syria for the Gulf States, Iran and Iraq chased 95 percent of Syria’s crude oil, has historically been divided, and it is at the National Security Council and sanctions are said to have cost Syria reasonable to predict that this division as much as $10 billion. “Their reserves would likely sharpen after Assad’s fall. Katulis said that it was puzzling that have been depleted,” he said. “That eats Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki away at the ability to buy bullets.” Abdulhamid added that while Islamists is repositioning himself toward Iran are not a power on the ground in Syria, when only a few years ago, he was Nonetheless, he said, it’s very clear that they are able to organize quickly—as condemning the regime in Damascus. Assad isn’t going to stop attacking his the Salafists did in Egypt. He also noted opponents. that the Sunnis have secular elements Tony Badran, a research fellow at as well. FDD, argued that there was a bizarre Sanctions, coupled with “other pow- reluctance on the part of the Obama ers moving into the intervention Administration to lead on Syria and room with the United States and the that the U.S. had initially “subcon- Europeans,” namely the Arab League tracted” its Syria policy to the Turks, and the Turks, will have a major but warned that ceding leadership to impact, Tabler said. the Turks or other regional actors like

PAge 14 Washington Forum 2011 Congressional Remarks Representative Howard Berman (D-CA)

“Our strongest talking point in urging China and [other countries] to cooperate with sanctions is this: If sanctions fail, military action— which will certainly destabilize the region and send oil prices through the roof—could well follow. If we lose the military option, we lose the force of that argument.”

Representative Howard Berman (D-CA)

Representative Howard Berman (D-CA) Sanctions against Iran must be “as the full House of Representatives passed FDD’s Executive Director Mark bold as the Iranian nuclear program is the bill in mid-December. Dubowitz concurred: “The last thing brazen,” said Representative Howard we want to do is pass sanctions that Berman (D-CA), ranking member of Berman delivered his remarks as feel good, but that will plunge us into a the House Foreign Affairs Committee. the Senate debated the Menendez- major recession.” Kirk amendment to the Defense Calling for strong sanctions on the Authorization Act, which would sanc- Berman expressed his desire to main- Central Bank of Iran’s petroleum sec- tion Iranian petroleum transactions 180 tain the threat of military action as tor, Berman argued that the United days after enactment, meaning mid- a deterrent to Iran, and as a means States should increase pressure on Iran June 2012 at the earliest. Berman sought to persuade other countries to join to prevent the Islamic Republic from to speed up the time frame. He argued America in strengthening sanctions. developing a nuclear weapon. He fur- that 120 days would give President “Our strongest talking point in urging ther defended President Obama’s com- Obama more than enough time to build China and [other countries] to cooper- mitment to sanctions, and declared an international coalition to support ate with sanctions is this: If sanctions that those who charge the administra- sanctions against the Central Bank of fail, military action—which will cer- tion with failing to prevent a nuclear Iran, but also help to solve possible dis- tainly destabilize the region and send Iran are “flat wrong.” ruptions in the world oil market. oil prices through the roof—could well follow. If we lose the military option, He added, however, that Congress must A shorter time frame, he said, “more we lose the force of that argument.” not give in to entreaties from the admin- accurately reflects the extreme urgency istration “to dilute our approach to sanc- of the situation we now face.” Berman pointed to other possible mea- tions on the Central Bank of Iran’s petro- sures Congress may soon take, credit- leum transactions.” This was a reference However, when asked whether the ing FDD with providing key research to an amendment to the Iran Threat Menendez-Kirk sanctions should go on some of them. He declared that Reduction Act that Berman authored, into effect the day they are signed into the United States and its allies should designed to isolate the Central Bank of law, Berman cautioned, “It does us no also sanction the state-owned National Iran from the global financial system. good to create massive financial hav- Iranian Oil Company, which is head- The House Foreign Affairs Committee oc with banks and countries that are ed by a former official of its Islamic unanimously adopted the measure, and friendly to us. You need a little time to Revolutionary Guard Corps. put this together.”

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 15 The Evolving Palestinian Strategy Dr. Nathan Brown, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, The George Washington University David Makovsky, Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and Director, Project on the Middle East Peace Process, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, FDD Vice President for Research Moderator: Clifford D. May, FDD President

Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Vice President of Research, FDD

David Makovsky, Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Dr. Nathan Brown Cliff May, President, FDD

“I would rather be where we are leadership is openly committed to Jonathan Schanzer, FDD’s vice presi- today than where we were seven years nonviolence.” dent of research, remarked that the ago,” said David Makovsky of The security situation between the Israelis Washington Institute for Near East Nathan Brown, a professor at The and Palestinians has improved, largely Policy. Makovsky was referring to the George Washington University, won- because of the security barrier Israel Second Intifada, when Palestinian sui- dered why it has become so important has built, and because Washington has cide bombings and attacks occurred on to Israel that it be recognized specifi- “bankrolled the Palestinian security a weekly basis. cally as a Jewish state. Israel’s existence forces, and we have ensured that the

Today, Israelis and Palestinians under “We have held out Abbas as a counterweight to Hamas, empowering Abbas’ government in the West Bank him and giving him all the tools he needs to survive…This has given are “coordinating, minute by min- him a sense he can pretty much do whatever he wants.” ute, hour by hour, day by day,” he said. Security cooperation is good Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Vice President of Research, FDD for both sides, he said, yielding more as a Jewish state didn’t come up in peace economy has boomed.” But he dis- security for Israelis and less unrest in negotiations with Egypt or Jordan, or agreed with the notion that Abbas was Palestinian cities. even during the Oslo Accords, he noted. the architect of this success. “Abbas happens to be in the right place at the Even in terms of incitement to violence, Could Abbas survive if he signed a right time,” he said. Makovsky believes there is improve- two-state agreement? “I don’t think he ment. “There are 1,300 mosques in the would be assassinated,” he said, but if Schanzer asserted that Washington West Bank. Replacing those imams he sat down with Israel with no pre- has made a strategic mistake with the who call for jihad was not a small conditions and inked a deal, “it would Palestinian leader. “We have held out matter… In my view, the Palestinian be political suicide.” Abbas as a counterweight to Hamas,

PAge 16 Washington Forum 2011 David Makovsky, The Washington Institute for David Makovsky, Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Dr. Nathan Brown, Cliff May Near East Policy empowering him and giving him all Schanzer noted that while Abbas has these circumstances. “As Iran continues its pursuit the tools he needs to survive,” he said. not openly advocated terrorism, he “This has given him a sense he can has celebrated terrorists in public of nuclear weapons, FDD pretty much do whatever he wants,” ways, and his Fatah party continues to has emerged as one of the including his rejection of United fund the al Aqsa Martyr Brigades. “He most innovative think tanks in States-led negotiations with Israel. On has been dancing right on that edge,” this point, Schanzer cited Abbas’ bid Schanzer said. Washington when it comes to for Palestinian statehood in the United developing effective policies to Nations. Brown remarked that the Abbas-led PLO would be more likely to reach a stop the Islamic Republic before Schanzer also expressed concern that unity government with Hamas than to it’s too late. The kind of time- Abbas has taken power away from incite West Bank Palestinians to vio- sensitive research, analysis and Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad, who lence. Makovsky and Schanzer, howev- sought to fight corruption and intro- er, cast doubt on the prospects of such expertise that FDD provides the duce greater transparency to the a deal. Congress is simply invaluable.” Palestinian government. Schanzer was Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) clear to note, “All of these dangerous Makovsky highlighted the financial policies we see are coming from the risks of a unity government. “Doing [Abbas-led] PLO, not [Fayyad’s gov- it means risking $1.2 billion in money ernment in] Ramallah.” that Israel [collects in customs],” he Makovsky described five clocks tick- said, plus another $400 million from ing against Israel if negotiations don’t Schanzer added that Abbas is politi- the U.S. No other country is stepping resume: demographic trends that cally vulnerable in the West Bank. up with $1.6 billion per year, he said. erode Israel’s democracy; growing “He is two years past his legitimate Palestinian radicalization that could term, and he is a corrupt autocrat not Schanzer questioned whether the two empower Hamas; improved rockets unlike those who were deposed” in the parties could find sufficient common that will be able to hit the heart of Israel; regional protests. ground. The two sides “can’t agree Israel’s growing international isolation; on the color of hummus,” Schanzer and the emboldening of Islamists who The moderator, FDD President Cliff said. However, he noted that Hamas reject normalization with Israel in the May, asked the panelists whether wouldn’t want to be left out of UN surrounding Arab states. Abbas still seeks Israel’s destruction. recognition of Palestinian statehood, while Abbas needs unity with Hamas “He is unambiguously committed in order to hold legitimate elections. to a two-state solution,” said Brown. Makovsky added that he should not be Brown argued that a third intifada has lumped in “with enemies of Israel who begun—this time, with demands for would destroy it.” human rights and citizenship, calls for boycotts, divestment, sanctions, and low-level violence. He doubted the ability to conduct negotiations under

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 17 Theaters of War Paul Berman, Contributing Editor, The New Republic DR. Catherine Dale, Specialist in International Security, Congressional Research Service Lt. Col. John Nagl (USA, ret.), President, Center for a New American Security Bill Roggio, FDD Senior Fellow and Editor, FDD’s The Long War Journal Moderator: Scott Shane, The New York Times

Paul Berman, Contributing Editor, The New Republic

Bill Roggio, John Nagl, Catherine Dale, Paul Berman Scott Shane, The New York Times

As the United States prepares to with- The civilian side is trickier, Dale said. draw troops from Afghanistan, it badly “We need to exercise leverage while we needs to stand up security forces that still have it to shape an Afghan system can defend the country from the bur- that can be held accountable.” geoning Taliban insurgency, several panelists warned. John Nagl, president of the Center for a New American Security and a retired Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow, FDD The Obama Administration has two Army lieutenant colonel, believes the core goals: Defeating al-Qaeda and war in Afghanistan has crested. “The “Predator strikes are necessary. preventing it from finding safe havens challenge is to hold what we’ve gained in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said and continue to make progress,” he However, there’s a drawback. It Catherine Dale of the Congressional said. Nagl had also recently returned Research Service. She had recently from Afghanistan. is inflaming Pakistan opinion.” returned from Kabul. Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow, FDD He called U.S. operations in In the security arena, “we’re on the Afghanistan’s south and southwest suc- right trajectory,” she said, citing prog- cessful, but said in the east, “we sim- ress in the fight against the insurgency ply haven’t had the resources to be as and increased cooperation with Afghan aggressive in our counterinsurgency.” security forces. “The right mix going for- ward probably involves continued opera- Like Dale, he said the U.S. should tions… by some of our combat forces move to an “advise-and-assist mission together with the introduction of com- in which we put Afghans in the lead, manders and advisers on the ground.” embed American advisers in all of the

PAge 18 Washington Forum 2011 “FDD has been one of the most committed and creative voices in Washington regarding the Iran nuclear issue and specifically Iran sanctions. Your ideas Dr. Catherine Dale, Congressional Research Service Lt. Col. John Nagl (USA, Ret.), President, Center for a New American Security inspired important components Afghan units… and rapidly increase Paul Berman, contributing editor for of the sanctions bill I authored the capabilities of the Afghan units” to The New Republic and author of Terror and passed last Congress when prepare them for the American with- and Liberalism, referred to the Arab I was Chairman of the House drawal in 2014. uprisings as the first phase of the post- colonial revolution and the collapse of Foreign Affairs Committee, and Nagl called 2014 a “triple witch- pan-Arabist nationalist movements, your ideas continue to enrich ing hour” for Afghanistan: the end “leading to a moment of ideological my thinking about sanctions as of American and NATO troops, a confusion.” Islamism is now filling the decrease in international money, and void, he noted. we move forward. My recent the end of President Hamid Karzai’s conversation in my office with final term. Berman said that focusing on military options “blinds us to the larger prob- Mark Dubowitz was one of Dale agreed with Nagl that the way for- lem” that the Islamist movement con- the most enlightening I’ve had ward “is for the Afghan system to func- tinues to recruit from universities. “We regarding Iran sanctions and oil tion, for our own role to increasingly have to engage with the Islamist move- step back.” ment and we have to argue against it,” markets.” he said. Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA) Addressing American efforts to target terrorists in Pakistan, Bill Roggio, FDD “It is a political movement. It has senior fellow and editor of its Long War tremendous intellectual strengths,” Journal, said that the “Predator strikes Berman said. It is not a coincidence, are necessary. However, there’s a draw- he said, that one al-Qaeda leader US to turn non-military back. It is inflaming Pakistan opinion.” after another turned out to be highly screws on Iran educated. December 11, 2011 Roggio called drone strikes “the most non-covert covert operations I’ve ever Moreover, Islamists are successfully A two-day forum sponsored by the Founda- witnessed.” They have successfully tar- establishing the parameters for debate. tion for Defense of Democracies featured a geted senior al-Qaeda leaders, external For example, he noted, “‘moderate’ has bipartisan group of lawmakers seeking to force Tehran to abandon work on nuclear weapons, operations figures, as well as leaders of come to mean whatever the Islamist as well as its domestic and foreign terror allied groups. movement declares to be moderate.” operations … Sen. Robert Menendez (D-New Jersey) said at The operations have “done a good job Ominously, Berman observed, “If you the Foundation for Defense of Democracies event that there is “no choice but to impose of keeping the al-Qaeda network… on don’t want to go around massacring the most robust sanctions possible.” its back foot,” said Roggio, but they have entire villages in your own country, but been less successful with other al-Qae- you do want to massacre Jews—all of da affiliate groups. “These groups have them—you are a moderate.” thousands of fighters and hundreds of leaders” in Pakistan, Roggio said.

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 19 Congressional Remarks Representative Steve Chabot (R-OH)

if the United States had lobbied its “The U.S. must remain allies in the region more effectively to implement political reform? “Could a steady ally to all we have had liberalization without the violence and bloodshed that we see those who wish to see now?” he asked. One thing is certain, he said, “The Arab Spring has made genuine democracy clear that no country, region, or people are immune to the desire for freedom.” rise from the ash heap On the question of Egypt, the Ohio congressman said that the United States of authoritarianism.” must help the country ensure freedom Representative Steve Chabot (R-OH) of speech and assembly, equal rights for women, religious and ethnic minorities, Representative Steve Chabot (R-OH) and a free press. Acknowledging that Representative Steve Chabot (R-OH), the United States as “hedging,” rather the Muslim Brotherhood has voiced chairman of the House Subcommittee than leading. The Ohio congressman “very troubling things,” Chabot said on the Middle East and South Asia, said that it looks as though the admin- that congressional decisions on contin- criticized President Obama for doing istration “is waiting to see who ends up ued U.S. assistance must ultimately be too little to prevent Iran from violating on top before picking a side.” shaped by “choices and policies made the human rights of its people. Chabot by whatever Egyptian government the described Washington’s actions after The “administration may think it is Egyptian people choose to elect.” Iran’s fraudulent presidential elections putting itself in a strategically advanta- in June 2009 as both “feeble” and “late.” geous position,” but “it seriously under- “We would obviously react very dif- estimates the impact its actions—or ferently to any government that does “To highlight human rights abuses and lack thereof—have on actual out- not respect the institutions of free then sanction fewer than a dozen indi- comes,” said Chabot. government, discriminates against or viduals for abuses perpetrated against represses its citizens, or which pursues Iranians is unacceptable,” he added. In general, Chabot said, he fears that policies which are destabilizing in the “And to vacillate between condemning “we are squandering” an opportunity region,” Chabot stated. this regime and then later offering it a to help the Middle East progress, which lifeline pits us against the people of that could “advance our own interests.” Broadly speaking, Chabot asserted country.” that the U.S. must remain “a steady ally “Making no decision is a decision in to all those who wish to see genuine Chabot stated his opinion that the itself,” Chabot warned. democracy rise from the ash heap of Obama Administration either believes authoritarianism.” “a grand bargain on the illicit nuclear Referring to the reforms that Obama program is possible, or it is concerned called for in his Cairo speech in June “Supporting the legitimate aspirations that to do so will create a situation in 2009, Chabot noted that many of the of all peoples is not just good public which it must then ensure that the ideas resonated with the Muslim people. relations; it is good policy,” he said. regime actually falls.” “Unfortunately, many of those measures were never implemented,” he said. Chabot believes that Tehran views this position as weakness. The regime views What would have happened, he mused,

PAge 20 Washington Forum 2011 The Arab Revolts and Their Impact on the Regional Balance of Power Khairi Abaza, FDD Senior Fellow Soner Cagaptay, Senior Fellow and Director, Turkish Research Program, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Reuel Marc Gerecht, FDD Senior Fellow and former CIA Iran operative Lee Smith, FDD Fellow Moderator: Jackson Diehl, The Washington Post

Reuel Marc Gerecht, Senior Fellow, FDD

Lee Smith, Soner Cagaptay, Khairi Abaza, Reuel Marc Gerecht Jackson Diehl, The Washington Post

Turkey plays an increasingly impor- FDD and former CIA Iran operative, tant role in the new Middle East, agreed. Turkey represents the “possi- “Why haven’t we seen Syria as a said Soner Cagaptay, who directs The bility you can be devoutly faithful and positive gain for the United States Washington Institute for Near East you can be rich,” said Gerecht. “The best Policy’s Turkish research program. thing for Turkey is to have it become a by making sure that the regime “The view from Ankara is that Turkey democratic inspiration and to actually is the region’s leader.” trumpet its own economic success.” falls and Hezbollah loses its depth

“Turkey’s role in the Arab Spring Both panelists noted, however, that in Syria? It’s a big fault of this can be boiled down to Turkey’s role Arabs are uncomfortable with the administration.” in Syria,” Cagaptay said, noting that Turks’ rising influence, because, as Lee Smith, FDD Fellow Syria—unlike the other Arab Spring Gerecht put it, the powers in Ankara countries of Egypt, Tunisia, and are producing “echoes of the Ottoman Libya—shares a border with Turkey, Empire, and they’re not Arab.” said, referring to the countries forth- bears an Ottoman imprint, and has coming efforts to draft its first civil- economic, social, and historical con- Any future role for Turkey, Cagaptay ian-written constitution. For Turkey nections to Turkey. As the first coun- said, “has to be… well-thought out” to become a true regional leader, he try in the region—outside of the Gulf because of those concerns. said, “it has to show itself as an exem- States—to have a successful, middle- plary liberal democracy.” class Muslim society, Turkey can serve “Turkey can successfully position as an economic model for the Mideast. itself as a leader of democratic change FDD fellow Lee Smith shifted the in the Arab world if it were to write focus to the Obama Administration’s Reuel Marc Gerecht, a senior fellow at a truly liberal constitution,” Cagaptay policies on Syria. “Why haven’t we

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 21 Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute for Near Lee Smith, Fellow, FDD Khairi Abaza, Senior Fellow, FDD East Policy new Islamist government there could Muslim Brotherhood to fulfill Egypt’s Bloomberg resemble the 1950s and ’60s, when obligations. Egypt got its weapons from the Soviet Union and wheat from the U.S. For his part, Smith favored economic Berman Resists Pressure pressure on the Brotherhood “to main- to Weaken Iran Sanctions Gerecht expressed doubts that the tain the peace treaty with Israel.” Measure U.S. would have much traction with December 8, 2011 a Muslim Brotherhood government. Smith pointed out that a rise in “The Central Bank of has become a vital “The only possible area where the Islamism in Egypt would mean a rise intermediary for purchasers of Iranian crude because existing sanctions against the Persian Muslim Brotherhood might consider in anti-Zionism, anti-Semitism, and Gulf country have constrained Iran’s ability to something with the U.S. is if they could anti-Americanism. “You’re describing access the international financial sector to settle get something for nothing,” he said, a state of 83 million that is going to oil trades,” said Mark Dubowitz, director of the Iran Energy Project at the Foundation for the perhaps accepting U.S. military sup- look at the U.S. as an enemy.” Defense of Democracies. port or other aid. Giving a historical perspective on seen Syria as a positive gain for the If Turkey gains influence in Egypt, he Egypt, Gerecht said its “evolution, as it United States by making sure that the said, “marrying Islamism to capital- should have been, stopped sometime regime falls and Hezbollah loses its ism” would become a possibility. Much after World War II,” and it would have depth in Syria? It’s a big fault of this more likely, Gerecht said, “you’ll see been better had Egypt remained under administration.” Cagaptay noted that fairly socialistic trends continue in British rule for a longer occupation. he sees signs that the Assad regime Egypt. The economy will take a second Instead, it ended up importing “foreign may collapse. For example, Syrian seat to virtue.” Gerecht further predict- ideas of legal codes that had no bearing elites are buying property in Turkey, a ed that Egypt would put its peace treaty on Islamic tradition.” sign that they believe the regime’s end with Israel up for review. may be near. What Egypt and other Arab states need Moderator Jackson Diehl, a today, Gerecht said, is a debate on the The panelists predicted a rocky path Washington Post columnist, wondered role of Islam in society. But the former forward for United States relations if the U.S. could use International CIA operative warned that political with Egypt. Relations will be marked Monetary Fund support for Egypt evolution in Europe “was pretty bloody by painfully slow progress, said FDD as leverage in accomplishing such awful.” To this, he noted, “We have to senior fellow and former Wafd party objectives as maintaining Egyptian hope the Muslims do a better job than official Khairi Abaza. “It’s going to be peace with Israel and keeping al- the Christians did.” more complex, but not impossible” Qaeda out of the Sinai Peninsula. to rebuild ties to the level they were Gerecht expressed skepticism, while under fallen dictator Hosni Mubarak, Abaza said the prospect of economic he said. However, relations with a collapse could put pressure on the

PAge 22 Washington Forum 2011 Legislators Discuss Iran and Syria Sanctions Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) Representative Eliot Engel (D-NY)

“Leaders of the Assad regime need to be indicted for crimes against humanity by the International Court. Just as Saddam Hussein and his son were charged, so must Assad and his henchmen be as well.”

Representative Eliot Engel (D-NY) Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) Representative Eliot Engel (D-NY)

In separate addresses, Senator Robert who co-authored the Menendez-Kirk Despite existing sanctions, he said, Iran Menendez (D-NJ) and Representative amendment for sanctions on finan- continues to sell 2.3 million barrels per Eliot Engel (D-NY) stated that the cial institutions that transact with the day of crude oil, generating $80 billion United States would take greater mea- Central Bank of Iran. The measure, he annually for the regime. sures to promote regime change in Iran said, could force countries to “make a and Syria. choice between interacting with Iran’s Menendez dismissed concerns about $350 billion economy or the United his amendment’s impact on U.S. allies. Menendez spoke primarily on Iran, States’ $14 trillion economy.” “The European nations and particular- while Engel addressed the ongoing ly the French are considering their own violence in Syria, where forces loyal to Menendez lamented that previous Iranian oil embargo,” he said. President Bashar al-Assad have been sanctions on Iran—in the form of the slaughtering the regime’s opponents. 2010 Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Noting that China continues to be a Accountability, and Divestment Act— major trading partner with Iran, he Menendez voiced support for Sen. have not been effective enough. Iran criticized the Obama Administration’s Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in her has adapted to CISADA, he said, find- reluctance to sanction Chinese com- efforts to impose financial sanctions ing ways to work around the strictures. panies. “There is ample evidence that on Syria, giving “countries a choice In doing so, he said, the Iranians have they are violating our laws,” he said. of doing business with the U.S. or been able to advance their nuclear Syria, but not both.” He also called for program. “Tightening the screws on Iran genu- stronger measures against Iran, which inely advances the causes of stability and has threatened to close the Straits of A November 2011 report by the peace in the Middle East,” Menendez Hormuz, a key oil trade waterway. International Atomic Energy Agency added, helping “us maintain an advan- confirming the military component tageous balance of power that protects “The timeline for acting is now, not of Iran’s nuclear program illustrates Israel and the region—ultimately the when we are facing no other choice the urgent need to restrict the flow world—from the intended or unintend- than military action,” said the senator, of money to Iran, the senator said. ed consequences of proliferation.”

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 23 Menendez also called for an Iranian- “The European Union already has Foreign Policy oil-free zone in the United States to adopted tough sanctions,” he said. ensure that Americans do not “unwit- Turkey, a longtime friend of the Syrian Inside the conference tingly support Iran’s nuclear ambitions” regime, “has finally become one of negotiations on Iran sanctions when they fill their gas tanks. Assad’s strongest critics.” But Engel identified China and Russia as impedi- December 8, 2011 Engel echoed the importance of sanc- ments to international sanctions. “We “Every administration wants total discretion on foreign policy, but that is an impulse that Con- tions on both Iran and Syria. “It’s very have to keep pressuring those two gress must always resist,” Berman said at a con- important for us to lead on building countries to impose tough sanctions ference on Thursday sponsored by the Founda- coalitions,” he said. “The American tion for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), a on Syria,” he said. conservative policy and research organization. people are tired. We’ve had two long “I will not, and Congress should not, give into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq… but Engel called for a redoubling of efforts entreaties from the administration or elsewhere ... to dilute our approach to sanctions on the I don’t think we can abrogate our to monitor Syria’s nuclear program and Central Bank of Iran’s petroleum transactions,” responsibility and turn around and for a strategy to help the Syrian oppo- Berman said to applause. “The Kirk-Menendez amendment is a good amendment.” leave it to everyone else.” He called for sition. He further called for the Assad “American leadership in cooperation regime to be indicted for war crimes. with our allies.” “The timeline for acting is now, Engel said that with the winds of the No substitute for US Middle East protests turning into a not when we are facing no other hurricane in Syria, both Israel and the leadership on Syria choice than military action. The December 12, 2011 United States were “reluctant to join the clamor to overthrow” President measure could force countries to Syria is too important a country for its crisis to Hafez al-Assad. However, the legisla- be handled by any actor other than the United tor from New York observed that the States, experts on Mideast geopolitics and na- make a choice between interacting tional security said late last week at an annual situation in Syria “couldn’t possibly get policy conference in Washington any worse,” noting the United Nations with Iran’s $350 billion economy … Tony Badran – a fellow at the Foundation for estimates that Assad’s regime has mur- Defense of Democracies, the Washington think dered thousands of its citizens. or the United States’ $14 trillion tank that organized the event – said neither the Arab League nor Turkey wield the necessary economy.” military or diplomatic clout to end a nearly Engel recalled that in 2003, Congress nine-month governmentcrackdown said to passed the Syria Accountability Act, Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) have killed at least 4,000 people. but since then, Presidents Bush and Obama each enforced only two sanc- “Leaders of the Assad regime need to tions measures: blocking flights by be indicted for crimes against human- the Syrian airline and blocking certain ity by the International Court. Just as Syrian exports. It wasn’t until August Saddam Hussein and his son were 18, 2011, he said, that Obama “finally charged, so must Assad and his hench- imposed the remaining sanctions. But, men be as well,” Engel said. still much more should be done.”

Engel said that he initially opposed U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford’s return to Damascus, believing it would give the Assad regime a “stamp of approv- al,” but he has since changed his mind. Ford has “helped to call attention to the brutality of the regime,” he said.

PAge 24 Washington Forum 2011 Thursday, December 8, 2011 Reception & Dinner at The Embassy of Canada Gary Doer Ambassador of Canada to the United States

Cheryl Halpern, Mark Charendoff

Gary Doer, Ambassador of Canada to the United States Ron Garson, Wendy Child, Kevin O’Shea, Bob Child Gary Doer, Canada’s Ambassador to the United States, hosted FDD’s close friends and top supporters for a cocktail reception and dinner at the Canadian Embassy. The evening featured an intimate conversation on energy policy with FDD Chairman and former CIA Director R. James Woolsey and FDD Advisor Robert “Bud” McFarlane, who served as national security advisor under President Ronald Reagan. Joining them was Canadian Political Minister Kevin O’Shea. They dis- cussed how America’s dependence on foreign oil has weakened America’s nation- al security. The speakers agreed that a partnership between the United States and Henry Feuerstein, Andy Albstein, Ben Heller Canada would be mutually beneficial to both nations’ economic, energy, and national security.

Dan Raviv, Jack Mowell, Ann Mowell

Kevin O’Shea, Robert “Bud” McFarlane David Naftaly, Ken Schwartz, John Hannah

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 25 friday, December 9, 2011 Keynote Address Puneet Talwar Senior Director for the Gulf States, Iran, and Iraq at the National Security Council

“Iran is weakened at home, diminished ficult for Iran to acquire key material in the region, and isolated in the world,” for equipment for its enrichment pro- said Puneet Talwar, special assistant to gram,” Talwar said. In 2007, the head of the president and senior director for the Iran’s atomic energy program predict- Gulf States, Iran, and Iraq at the National ed that Iran would have 50,000 cen- Security Council. “In this sense, we’ve trifuges within four years. According changed the dynamic since President to the International Atomic Energy Obama took office.” Agency, Iran today has 8,000 centri- fuges, with perhaps 6,000 operating. Three years ago, Talwar continued, “the A UN panel in 2011 also confirmed regime was highly united. Today, the that sanctions have slowed the Iranian regime is defined by division. Three nuclear program. years ago, the international commu- nity was divided. Today, we have an Talwar further noted that Iranian unprecedented degree of unity, with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Puneet Talwar our allies and partners, that Iran must has “called sanctions the heaviest eco- be held accountable. Three years ago, it nomic onslaught against Iran ever.” That “Globally, Iran is isolated like never was uncertain whether additional pres- is because Iran is facing $100 billion in before,” Talwar said. “Iran sees fewer sure could be brought to bear. Today, shortages for investments in oil and gas, friends, fewer protectors, and fewer the regime is subject to the broadest and high inflation, and high unemployment. business partners.” strongest sanctions it has ever faced.” “We are determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.” Before Obama took office, Talwar said, Puneet Talwar, Senior Director for the Gulf States, many gave Iran the benefit of the doubt, Iran, and Iraq at the National Security Council blaming Washington for tensions over Iran’s nuclear program. Obama was Businesses are “leaving the country in Additionally, he said, Supreme Leader determined to change the dynamic. droves,” Talwar said, listing several major Ali Khamenei, and President Mahmoud companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, Ahmadinejad seem headed for confron- During the Obama presidency, Talwar Toyota, Kia, and Credit Suisse. tation. “The supreme leader recently said, the United States has “led the way talked about abolishing the presidency,” on an unprecedented array of sanctions Talwar touted that the U.S. has deep- Talwar said. that have imposed a significant price for ened its defense partnerships in the Iran’s behavior and delayed Iran’s nucle- region and enhanced its presence. “We Iran has also failed to shape Iraq into ar program.” have worked to develop a network of air a client state, he said, and has thus far and missile defenses, shared early warn- failed to exploit the Arab Spring. “Like Those sanctions include not just the ing, improved maritime security, closer al-Qaeda, Iran’s model of extremism, toughest U.S. sanctions ever, he said, but counterterrorism cooperation,” he said, violence, and denial of human rights is also United Nations Security Council and expanded efforts to harden and pro- rejected,” Talwar said Resolution 1929, which Talwar said tect allies’ critical infrastructure. succeeded in creating an international Iran’s leaders can still choose an easier front against Iran. Talwar added that Shortly after taking office, Obama path by cooperating with the IAEA and Resolution 1929 led Russia to cancel the presented Iran with an opportunity abiding by UN resolutions, Talwar not- sale of a missile system to Iran. for dialogue. It was a bona fide offer ed. But “if Iran does not change course, of dialogue, but when rejected, “Iran’s the pressure will grow,” he declared. “We Sanctions have since slowed Iran’s intransigence would be exposed to the are determined to prevent Iran from nuclear program, making “it more dif- rest of the world.”

PAge 26 Washington Forum 2011 Toward an Effective Middle East Policy John Hannah, FDD Senior Fellow and former national security advisor to Vice President Cheney and Secretary of State Warren Christopher Ambassador John Limbert, former Iranian hostage and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran Stephen Rademaker, Principal at the Podesta Group, and former Assistant Secretary of State R. James Woolsey, FDD Chairman and former Director of Central Intelligence Agency Moderator: Mark Dubowitz, FDD Executive Director

John Limbert, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran

R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Stephen Rademaker, John Limbert, R. James Woolsey, John Hannah Intelligence; Chairman, FDD John Limbert, the former United States fought a proxy war with Israel in 2006, asserted that the “slightest crisis could deputy assistant secretary of state for through Hezbollah. Iran was restrained lead to a miscalculation, and that’s Iran who was also held hostage by the in the weapons it gave Hezbollah, he enormously dangerous.” Additionally, regime in 1979, defended the Obama said, recognizing that at some point, once Iran had nuclear weapons, its Administration’s attempts to engage in “Israel would hit back at the patron of neighbors would seek them, he said, negotiations with Tehran, noting that the proxy.” If Iran had nuclear weapons listing Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, “one 45-minute meeting in two years” in 2006, then Israel’s ability to retali- and the United Arab Emirates as coun- isn’t much in the way of diplomacy. ate would have been diminished, he tries likely to follow suit. said. Moreover, Iran “would have been “Iran would remain isolated and dip- much more unrestrained in what it was Defending President Obama’s deci- lomatically weak” even if it were to prepared to do.” sion to engage with Iran, Limbert acquire nuclear weapons, Limbert said that when the president spoke of argued. “How does a nuclear weapon The Iranian leaders see nuclear weap- mutual respect and sent greetings for improve Iran’s position vis-à-vis Syria? ons as a key to changing the region the Iranian new year celebrations of How does it help the Ba’ath govern- through violence, Rademaker said. “It Nowruz, “he caught them off guard… ment deal with the rebellion?” he increases their options for meddling It has thrown them off their game.” asked, claiming that while Iran “has in the rest of the region,” and reaching That they didn’t respond positively is been involved in some very nasty busi- their goal of destroying Israel. hardly surprising, Limbert said, but ness… we have a distorted image of “it’s very clear that 30 years of trading what they can do.” A nuclear Iran would create massive insults and threats” haven’t brought instability in the region, said John much change on either side. Other panelists disagreed. Notably, Hannah, an FDD senior fellow and for- Stephen Rademaker, a principal at the mer national security advisor to Vice Rademaker said he didn’t fault Obama Podesta Group and a former assistant President Dick Cheney and Secretary for trying to see if he could negotiate secretary of state, pointed out that Iran of State Warren Christopher. Hannah with Iran, but charged that the adminis-

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 27 Stephen Rademaker, Principal, The Podesta Group Mark Dubowitz, Executive Director, FDD R. James Woolsey, John Hannah

“The U.S. must support the Syrian opposition in a much more robust way than we have been…This is a huge strategic opportunity for the U.S.” John Hannah, Senior Fellow, FDD tration failed to cease trying after it was means. “Engagement can mean a Woolsey suggested that Washington clear talks had failed. “I fault the admin- promise to get married,” he quipped, draw up attack plans, “and then smile istration for persisting in this,” he said. or it can refer to open warfare. For politely at the Iranians and say, ‘Would example, “Little Round Top was the you be interested in giving up your Sanctions have accomplished a lot, but decisive engagement of the Battle of nuclear weapons in a verifiable way or not enough to persuade Iran to change Gettysburg.” Woolsey argued that the not? Let me know tomorrow’.” direction, Rademaker said. He likened Obama Administration has adopted the U.S. Iran policy to a three-legged stool: former approach as its means to engage. Setting a scenario for the panel- sanctions, diplomacy, and “this vague- ists, moderator and FDD Executive ly worded, ‘all options are on the table’ When asked about the likelihood of Director Mark Dubowitz asked how threat that America is prepared to use Israel’s striking Iran’s nuclear facili- Washington should respond in Syria if military force.” ties, Woolsey said, “I don’t think sanctions fail to stop President Bashar this is Israel’s duty. I think it’s ours.” Assad’s assault on his own people. The problem “is no one believes the He suggested a “multi-day, perhaps Obama Administration is prepared to multi-week, bombing campaign to Hannah said that the situation should use force,” Rademaker said, suggesting destroy every shred” of the Islamic not deteriorate to that point. “The U.S. the “threat of military action has to be Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, must support the Syrian opposition made more credible.” he said he didn’t think the Obama in a much more robust way than we Administration would heed his calls. have been,” he remarked, arguing that He also said the U.S. must take stron- the Obama Administration must put a ger action on Syria, which he iden- Woolsey said the U.S. should put car- higher priority on Syria than it has so tified as one of Iran’s key strategic rier groups in place and prepare to far. “This is a huge strategic opportu- assets. “The U.S. has a vital interest in destroy all of Iran’s air defenses, strike nity for the U.S.” making sure that Iran loses that asset,” “everything remotely related to the Rademaker said. Revolutionary Guards, and try not to touch the rest of Iranian society as R. James Woolsey, FDD chairman and much as possible. Don’t take out the former director of Central Intelligence, electricity grid. It’s not an assault on the challenged the logic of engagement, people of Iran.” arguing that no one knows what it

PAge 28 Washington Forum 2011 FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES

A NON-PARTISAN POLICY INSTITUTE DEDICATED EXCLUSIVELY TO PROMOTING PLURALISM, DEFENDING DEMOCRATIC VALUES, AND FIGHTING THE IDEOLOGIES THAT THREATEN DEMOCRACY.

Amb. R. James Woolsey Chairman Clifford D. May President

Mark Dubowitz Executive Director

LEADERSHIP COUNCIL

Amb. Richard Carlson Vice-Chairman Dr. Paula J. Dobriansky Amb. Max M. Kampelman Fmr. Undersecretary of State for Democracy Fmr. Ambassador and Global Affairs Steve Forbes Bill Kristol CEO, Forbes Magazine Editor, Weekly Standard Judge Louis J. Freeh Senator Joseph Lieberman Fmr. FBI Director (ID-CT) U.S. Senate

Robert C. McFarlane Fmr. National Security Advisor

BOARD OF ADVISORS Hon. Charles Allen Kathleen Troia ‘KT’ McFarland Gary Bauer Richard Perle Rep. Eric Cantor Steven Pomerantz Gene Gately Oliver ‘Buck’ Revell Gen. P.X. Kelley Bret Stephens Charles Krauthammer Hon. Francis ‘Bing’ West

IN MEMORIAM Hon. Jack Kemp Ambassador Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Founding FDD Chairman Founding FDD Board Member

www.defenddemocracy.org PAge 7 About Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD): Principles, Policies, Progress

FDD is a non-partisan institution focusing on national security and foreign policy. FDD was founded by a group of former U.S. officials and visionary philanthropists shortly after the attacks of September 11, 2001 to help free nations defend themselves.

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FDD focuses its efforts where opinions are formed and decisions are made, providing cutting- edge research, investigative journalism, and public education - transforming ideas into action and policy.

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