December 8 - 10, 2010

Report from the Washington Forum Countering the Iranian Threat About Washington Forum

Washington Forum, FDD’s annual policy summit, brings together a diverse list of foreign policy and national security professionals from Congress, the White House, the Departments of State, Defense, Treasury, Justice, and Energy, the CIA, the FBI, and the Joint Chiefs, as well as diplomats, scholars and journalists for discussions and debates about pressing national security issues.

Last year, Washington Forum focused on countering the Iranian threat and took place just days after the latest round of nuclear negotiations with Iran got underway. Panels centered on the various threats a nuclear Iran poses to U.S. national security, Israel and other nations, and examined the policy options aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear weapons acquisition and its sponsorship of terrorism. Washington Forum provided an opportunity for stakeholders to interact with each other and for policy ideas to germinate.

We invite you to watch the footage from Washington Forum 2010 which among other sessions, includes remarks by White House official Gary Samore, Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL), Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA), and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI). A highlights video is also available at www. FDDWashingtonForum.org .

Washington Forum 2010 Host Committee

Chair: Bernie Marcus

Kenneth and Nira Abramowitz Larry J. Hochberg Alan and Suzanne K. Peyser Mark and Paula Argosh Daniel and Angela Japha Mark Pruzanski Paul Bishop Len and Michelle Leader Kenneth Schwartz Edgar M. Bronfman Frederick J. Manning Dianne Sehler and The Lynde and Ambassador Richard and Carol and Larry A. Mizel Harry Bradley Foundation Patricia Carlson Charles Moed Robert J. Shillman (“Doctor Bob”) David and Ruth Naftaly 4 A Letter from R. James Woolsey, Cliff May and Mark Dubowitz

In the months following FDD’s “Washington Forum 2010: Countering the Iranian Threat,” fears of a nuclear showdown in the Middle East have given way to upheaval in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and beyond. Yet as the “Arab Spring” dominates the headlines, Iran is meddling in the affairs of Washington’s R. James Woolsey, Chairman, FDD allies, and continuing its march toward a nuclear weapon.

The Obama administration recognizes the gravity of an Iranian nuclear threat. As Washington Forum speaker and Pulitzer-prize winning New York Times columnist David Sanger reports, “Every decision — from Libya to Yemen to Bahrain to Syria — is being examined under the prism of how it will affect…the dominating calculus in the Obama administration’s regional strategy: how to slow Iran’s nuclear progress.” In his remarks at the Washington Forum, Gary Samore, White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction, Counter-terrorism and Arms Control, explained why the White House sees the situation through an Iranian prism: “Iran’s efforts to acquire nuclear weapons capability poses one of the most serious Cliff May, President, FDD international security threats that this country faces.”

Congress, too, remains determined to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. In February 2011, Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) — another Washington Forum speaker — and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) co-sponsored the Iran Transparency and Accountability Act with U.S. Representatives Ted Deutch (D-FL) and Dan Burton (R-IN). In April, Representative Brad Sherman (D-CA), Washington Forum speaker, and Representative Ed Royce (R-CA) introduced the Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program Act, which seeks to strengthen the measures President Obama signed into law in the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act (CISADA), Mark Dubowitz, Executive Director, FDD barring U.S. firms from developing Iran’s energy sector and reducing Iran’s access to the international financial system. Senators Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Congressmen Robert Dold (R-IL) and Ted Deutch (D-FL) have also introduced the Iran Human Rights and Democracy Promotion Act of 2011 to promote human rights and democratic reform, targeting individuals and international companies that are involved in oppressing the Iranian people.

FDD remains committed to preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon. In the months following Washington Forum, FDD has turned many of the ideas discussed at the Forum into action. Calls by the Honorable Irwin Cotler and Ambassador Uri Lubrani to pressure the regime over its human rights violations and sponsorship of terrorism resulted in the creation of FDD’s Iran Human Rights Project. FDD’s Iran Energy Project continues to monitor companies that do business with Iran, and develop new means to squeeze the “We need to send a message sanctions regime. Our scholars, including Reuel Marc Gerecht, Emanuele to Iran that sanctions will only Ottolenghi, Jonathan Schanzer, Claudia Rosett, Benjamin Weinthal and Michael Ledeen, have published hundreds of articles in leading media increase as Iran avoids serious outlets on the nuclear threat. negotiations, and will not be This booklet contains a compilation of the most memorable insights from lifted until our concerns are Washington Forum, including analysis relating to Iran and other pressing fully addressed.” international conflicts.

— Dr. Gary Samore Attendees will recall FDD advisor and Wall Street Journal columnist Bret White House Coordinator Stephens moderating a lively debate on Middle East peace with Ghaith al- Omari, former foreign policy advisor to then-Palestinian Prime Minister for Weapons of Mass Mahmoud Abbas, Aaron David Miller, former Middle East peace negotiator Destruction (WMD), under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, and Jonathan Schanzer, author of Hamas v. Fatah and FDD’s Vice President of Research. FDD’s key Counter-terrorism and Arms supporters participated in an intimate breakfast conversation with former Control Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff, and a timely private conversation with FDD Senior Fellow and Long War Journal editor Bill Roggio. For those who weren’t able to join us, we are pleased to share the highlights with you in the following pages and we hope you will consider joining us next year.

This year’s Washington Forum, taking place December 7-9, 2011, promises to be equally memorable. Commemorating the anniversary of 9/11, Washington Forum 2011 participants will engage the best and brightest on the national security challenges we face a decade after the attacks.

We hope you enjoy the following Washington Forum 2010 highlights, and we look forward to seeing you in December for Washington Forum 2011.

Best regards,

R. James Woolsey Clifford D. May Mark Dubowitz Chairman President Executive Director

2 Speaker Biographies

Major General Ambassador The (ret.) Yaakov Richard Honorable Amidror Carlson Irwin Cotler is the National Security is Vice Chairman of the is a former Canadian Advisor to Israel’s Prime Foundation for Defense Attorney General and Minister. Previously, of Democracies. He current Liberal Party MP. he was the program writes a syndicated He is currently serving director of the Institute for Contemporary newspaper column and hosts the “Danger as Liberal Special Counsel on Human Rights & Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Zone” radio show on WMAL in Washington, International Justice, is a member of the House Affairs. He also served as the commander of DC. From 1991-1992, he was the U.S. of Commons Foreign Affairs Subcommittee the Israeli Defense Force’s National Defense Ambassador to the Republic of Seychelles. on International Human Rights, and Chair College and the IDF Staff and Command Previously, he was director of the Voice of of the All-Party Save Darfur Parliamentary College. Maj. Gen. Amidror also headed the America. Ambassador Carlson was a member Coalition. A leading public advocate in IDF’s Research and Assessment Division of the U.S. delegation to the annual U.S.-USSR and out of Parliament for the Human Rights with special responsibility for preparing the Information Talks in Moscow and Washington, Agenda, he headed the Canadian Delegation National Intelligence Assessment, and he D.C. He led official U.S. government delegations to the Stockholm International Forum on served as military secretary for the Minister to the People’s Republic of China, to Georgia, the Prevention of Genocide. Irwin Cotler has of Defense. He is the author of Thoughts About the USSR, and to Moldavia, USSR. He has been been variously described as being “at the Security and Military Affairs (Israel National involved in negotiations on behalf of the U.S. forefront of the struggle for justice, peace and Security College, 2002) and Intelligence: Theory government with many foreign governments, human rights.” and Practice (Ministry of Defense Publishing including those of China, Korea, the USSR, House, 2006). Germany, Costa Rica, Belize, Liberia, Botswana, Tom Delare Lesotho, South Africa, Morocco and Israel. is the Director for Tony Badran Terrorism Finance and is a Research Fellow The Sanctions Policy in at the Foundation Honorable the Economic Bureau for Defense of Michael of the Department Democracies. His Chertoff of State. Previously, research focuses on was the second Mr. Delare had worked at both the U.S. Lebanon, Syria and S e c r e t a r y o f Embassy in Rome, Italy (2006-2009) as Hezbollah, their regional and international t h e Department of well as the Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq (2005- relations, and Islamist groups in the Levant. Mr. Homeland Security. Previously, he was the 2006), serving as Minister Counselor for Badran is the author of a well-respected blog, United States Circuit Judge for the Third Economic Affairs in both places. He has Across the Bay. His writings have appeared in a Circuit Court of Appeals. Mr. Chertoff served served as Deputy Director of the Office number of notable publications, including the as Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal of Investment Affairs, Chief Economist for Los Angeles Times, Forbes.com, National Review Division at the Department of Justice. In this Russia and later for Korea, Staff Economist Online, ForeignPolicy.com, the Jerusalem Post, capacity, he oversaw the investigation of the on the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning and the Daily Star, NOW Lebanon, as well as 9/11 terrorist attacks. Mr. Chertoff also spent Staff, and Deputy Chief of Mission and in many academic and policy journals. He has more than a decade as a federal prosecutor, Charge d’Affaires in Bucharest, Romania. held regular briefings with both US and EU working on cases of political corruption, government officials. organized crime, and corporate fraud. He served as a clerk to Supreme Court Justice William Brennan, Jr. from 1979-1980.

3 Mark Daveed Daniel L. Glaser Dubowitz Gartenstein- i s t h e Tr e a s u r y is the Executive Ross Department’s Deputy D i r e c t o r o f t h e is the Director of Assistant Secretary for Foundation for Defense FDD’s Center for the Terrorist Financing and of Democracies. He Study of Terrorist Financial Crimes. In this leads FDD’s projects on Radicalization. He co- role he functions as the Iran sanctions and human rights. Mr. Dubowitz authored Homegrown Terrorists in the U.S. primary Treasury official for the development has briefed U.S. and international policymakers and U.K., which has been cited repeatedly in and coordination of international anti-money and counterterrorism officials, and provided academic works. He frequently leads training laundering and counter-terrorist financing evidence in a successful prosecution against for the U.S. military’s Leader Development policy. Mr. Glaser is a key official in developing U.S. supporters of Hezbollah. Mr. Dubowitz and Education for Sustained Peace (LDESP) and implementing strategies to disrupt and has testified before Congress on Iran courses, and the Department of State’s dismantle money laundering and terrorist sanctions issues, appeared widely in national Office of Anti-Terrorism Assistance has financing networks worldwide, and has led and international media, and is a regular retained him as a Subject Matter Expert to the Treasury effort to identify and secure the contributor to Forbes’ Energy Source. He is the develop its international training material. U.S. financial system from foreign money co-author of Iran’s Energy Partners: Companies laundering and terrorist financing threats. Requiring Investigation Under U.S. Sanctions Law, Reuel Marc Mr. Glaser also plays a leading role in the Iran’s Chinese Energy Partners: Companies Eligible Gerecht fight against money laundering and terrorist for Investigation Under U.S. Sanctions Law, is a Senior Fellow at financing internationally as the head of the and most recently, Palestinian Pulse (all FDD t h e F o u n d a t i o n U.S. delegation to the Financial Action Task Press, 2010). for Defense of Force (FATF) – the premier international body Democracies and in the fight against money laundering. Mark former Iran analyst Fitzpatrick at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations. Mr. Jeffrey is Director of the IISS Gerecht is the author of Know Thine Enemy: A Goldberg Non-Proliferation Spy’s Journey into Revolutionary Iran (Farrar, is a National and Disarmament Straus & Giroux, 1997), The Islamic Paradox: Correspondent for The Programme. M r. Shiite Clerics, Sunni Fundamentalists, and Atlantic. In September Fitzpatrick’s research the Coming of Arab Democracy (AEI Press, 2010, he published a focus includes nuclear proliferation 2004), and The Wave: Man, God, and the highly discussed and concerns and preventing nuclear danger Ballot Box in the Middle East (Hoover Press debated piece entitled “The Point of No in the emerging ‘nuclear renaissance’. He 2011). He is a contributing editor for The Return” on the possibility of a military strike on is the author of The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Weekly Standard and a correspondent for Iran’s nuclear sites. Before joining The Atlantic Avoiding worst-case outcomes and has The Atlantic Monthly, as well as a frequent in 2007, he was Middle East Correspondent, written articles on non-proliferation in the contributor to The Wall Street Journal, The and Washington Correspondent, for The Financial Times, International Herald Tribune, New York Times, and other publications. New Yorker. Mr. Goldberg has also previously Survival, and other publications. He has written for The New York Times Magazine, lectured throughout Europe, North America New York Magazine, The Forward, and and Asia and is a frequent commentator on The Jerusalem Post, and is the author of the proliferation and disarmament topics on BBC, critically acclaimed book, Prisoner: A Muslim NPR and other news outlets. and a Jew Across the Middle East Divide.

4 Congressman Dr. Ken Orde Kittrie Peter Katzman is a professor of law Hoekstra is a specialist in Middle at Arizona State is a ranking member of East affairs for the University and a the House Permanent Congressional Research Senior Fellow at the Select Committee Service where he Foundation for Defense o n I n t e l l i ge n c e . provides analysis on of Democracies. Mr. Congressman Hoekstra has been a member of Persian Gulf political, military and diplomatic Kittrie is an expert on nuclear nonproliferation the Committee since 2001 and is responsible affairs, and on U.S. policy in that region, to legal issues and sanctions. He serves as chair for providing Congressional oversight as the members of Congress and their staffs. Dr. of the Nonproliferation, Arms Control & United States battles a global war on terror Katzman has served in government and the Disarmament Committee of the American and Congress works to modernize and reform private sector as an analyst in Persian Gulf Society of International Law and chair the U.S. Intelligence Community. He was affairs, with special emphasis on Iran and of the Nonproliferation, Arms Control & originally sworn in to the 103rd Congress in Iraq. He also has written numerous articles Disarmament Committee of the American 1993. He represents the second congressional in various outside publications, including a Branch of the International Law Association. district of Michigan. book entitled The Warriors of Islam: Iran’s He also serves on a National Academies of Revolutionary Guard. Dr. Katzman has a Ph.D. Science committee created by Congress to Rodney Joffe in Political Science from New York University. issue a report on how to improve current is Senior Vice President U.S. government programs to prevent and Senior Technologist Mehdi Khalaji the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and at NeuStar. He has is a Senior Fellow biological weapons. been in the field of at The Washington IT security since the Institute for Near Dr. Michael 1973 and founded the East Policy where he Ledeen American Computer Group (ACG) in 1983. focuses his research Dr. Michael Ledeen is the Mr. Joffe continued his entrepreneurial on the politics of Iran Freedom Scholar at the streak and founded several other companies, and Shiite groups in the Middle East. Foundation for Defense including, Genuity, the largest Internet He earned his doctorate while studying of Democracies. He hosting company in the world in 1997, theology and jurisprudence in the is also a contributing UltraDNS Corporation, and Packet Forensics, seminaries of the traditional center of Iran’s editor at National Review Online and writes a specialized network security company. He clerical establishment, Qom. While there, the blog Faster, Please! for Pajamas Media. has also served on several boards such as he researched the modern philosophical- Previously, he served as a consultant to the Scientific Monitoring and Plasmanet. He is political and intellectual developments National Security Council, the Department of active in Internet governance bodies which of Iran, and he eventually launched his State, and the Department of Defense. He has include both the ICANN SSAC (Security career in journalism by serving on the also served as a special adviser to the Secretary and Stability Advisory Committee) and the editorial boards of two different Iranian of State. He holds a Ph.D. in modern European ICANN RSTEP (Registry Services Technical periodicals. He has also worked for BBC history and philosophy from the University Evaluation Panel). He has testified before as an analyst on Iranian affairs, and of Wisconsin, and has taught at Washington Congress on electronic security. was a broadcaster for Radio Farda, the University in St. Louis and the University of Persian language service of Radio Free Rome. He is author of more than 20 books, Europe/Radio Liberty. including his most recent, Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West (Truman Talley Books, 2009).

5 Ambassador Aaron David Dr. Emanuele Uri Lubrani Miller Ottolenghi is an Iran advisor to is a Public Policy Fellow is a Senior Fellow at Israeli Deputy Prime at the Woodrow Wilson the Foundation for the Minister Moshe International Center for Defense of Democracies Yaalon. He served as Scholars. An expert on and author of Iran: an Iran advisor to the the Middle East peace The Looming Crisis- Israeli Ministry of Defense and was Israeli process, he is the author of The Much Too Can the West Live with Iran’s Nuclear Threat? Ambassador to Iran before the revolution in Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search From 2006 to early 2010 he headed the 1979. Ambassador Lubrani formerly headed for Arab-Israeli Peace (Bantam, 2008). His Transatlantic Institute in Brussels, where he the Israeli task force that planned and executed other books include The Arab States and currently resides. He previously taught Israel Operation Solomon, which airlifted the larger the Palestine Question: Between Ideology Studies at the Oxford Centre for Hebrew and part of the Jewish community of Ethiopia and Self Interest, The PLO and the politics of Jewish Studies and at the Middle East Centre to Israel. He also served as government Survival, and The Search for Security, Saudi of St. Antony’s College, Oxford University. He coordinator for Lebanese affairs and chief Arabian Oil and American Foreign Policy. obtained his Ph.D. in political theory at the Israeli negotiator for the release of Israeli He previously served at the Department of Hebrew University of Jerusalem and did his hostages and prisoners of war. He has served State as an advisor to six secretaries of state, undergraduate studies in political science at as the Israeli Ambassador to Ethiopia, Uganda, where he helped formulate U.S. policy on the University of Bologna. He has a column Rwanda, and Burundi. Ambassador Lubrani the Middle East and the Arab-Israel peace in the British monthly, Standpoint Magazine has also served as a political advisor to process, most recently as the Senior Advisor and blogs on Contentions, the Blog of Prime Ministers Levi Eshkol and David for Arab-Israeli Negotiations. Commentary Magazine. Ben-Gurion. Ghaith al- Dr. Walid Clifford May Omari Phares is President of the is Advocacy Director is a Senior Fellow and Foundation for Defense at the American Task Director of FDD’s Future of Democracies. He Force in Palestine of Terrorism Project has had a long and (ATFP). Prior to that, where he focuses on distinguished career in he served in various Middle East history international relations, positions within the Palestinian Authority, and politics, global terrorist movements, journalism, communications and politics. including Director of the International democratization and human rights. He is the Mr. May spent nearly a decade with The Relations Department in the Office of the author of numerous books, including The New York Times as a reporter in both New Palestinian President, and advisor to former Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in York and Washington, an editor of The New Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas. He has the Middle East, and Future Jihad: Terrorist York Times Sunday Magazine and as a foreign extensive experience in the Palestinian-Israeli Strategies Against America, which was listed correspondent. He is a frequent guest on peace process, having been an advisor to the on Foreign Policy magazine’s best selling national and international television and radio Palestinian negotiating team throughout titles for three months. Dr. Phares appears news programs including CNN and MSNBC, the permanent status negotiations frequently in the media, is a visiting fellow at providing analysis and participating in debates (1999–2001). In these capacities, the European Foundation for Democracy, and on national security issues. He writes a weekly he provided advice on foreign policy, an Adjunct Professor at National Defense column that is nationally distributed by Scripps especially vis-à-vis the United University. Howard News Service and he is a regular States and Israel, and security. contributor to National Review Online, The American Spectator and other publications. 6 DR. Ken David Sanger Congressman Pollack is Chief Washington Brad Sherman is an expert on Middle Correspondent for The is the Chairman of the East politics and New York Times and is House Foreign Affairs military affairs and is one of the newspaper’s Subcommittee on currently the Director senior writers. He has International Terrorism, of the Saban Center for reported from New Nonproliferation, and Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. York, Tokyo and Washington, specializing Trade. He has been a leader in initiating and He has served on the National Security in foreign policy, national security and the securing Iran sanctions legislation. He was Council staff and has written several articles politics of globalization. He is also the author sworn into the 105th Congress in 1997 and and books on international relations. He also of the New York Times best-seller The represents the 27th district of California. spent seven years in the CIA as a Persian Gulf Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and He is currently serving his seventh term. military analyst. He is the author of A Path Out the Challenges to American Power (2009). He is also a member of the Financial Services of the Desert: A Grand Strategy for America Mr. Sanger appears regularly on public affairs Committee. in the Middle East and the author of The and news shows, including Washington Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran Week on PBS, and the three main Sunday Bret Stephens and America. news shows, Face the Nation, Meet the Press writes The Wall Street and This Week. He also delivers the weekly Journal’s “Global View” Uzi Rubin Washington Report on WQXR, part of New column on foreign is the founder and York Public Radio. affairs, which runs first Director of the every Tuesday in the Israel Missile Defense Dr. Jonathan United States and is Organization (IMOD) Schanzer also published in the European and Asian in the Israel Ministry is the Vice President editions of the paper. He is a member of The of Defense (MOD). of Research at the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board, and In that capacity he initiated and managed Foundation for Defense has previously worked for the paper as an Israel’s nationwide effort to develop, of Democracies. He is Assistant Editorial Features Editor in New produce and deploy its first missile defense the author of Hamas vs. York and as an Editorial Writer in Brussels for shield, the Arrow missile. He led the Arrow Fatah: The Struggle for Palestine (Palgrave The Wall Street Journal Europe. From March program from its inception in 1991 to the Macmillan, 2008), Al-Qaeda’s Armies: 2002 to October 2004, Mr. Stephens was first delivery of operational missiles in 1999. Middle East Affiliate Groups and the Next Editor-in-Chief of The Jerusalem Post where In 1990 as a visiting scholar at the Stanford Generation of Terror (Washington Institute he was responsible for the paper’s news and Center for International Security and Arms for Near East Policy, 2004), and is a co- editorial divisions. Mr. Stephens is also on Control, he directed a major study on missile author on the newly published Palestinian the Board of Advisors for FDD. proliferation. Between 1999 and 2001 he Pulse (FDD Press, 2010). He has served as a was the Senior Director for Proliferation counterterrorism analyst for the Department and Technology in Israel’s National Security of the Treasury and as a research fellow at the Council. He was twice awarded the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Dr. prestigious Israel Defense Prize in 1996 Schanzer holds a Ph.D. from King’s College and again in 2003. He now heads his own London, where he documented the history defense consultancy, Rubincon Ltd. of the United States Congress and its efforts to combat terrorism. He speaks Arabic and Hebrew.

7 Washington Forum 2010 Program

Wednesday, December 8 Opening Reception with FDD Senior Fellows

Washington Forum opened with a cocktail reception with FDD experts and featured Robert “Bud” McFarlane, former National Security Advisor and member of FDD’s Board of Advisors. The reception was hosted by Ambassador Richard Carlson, Vice Chairman of FDD, and it paid tribute to the FDD scholars and fellows who have earned FDD a reputation for producing compelling and cutting edge research. Their work, drawn from “The Washington Forum was experiences on the ground or in academia, government, the intelligence community and the policy arena, helps inform the policy debate in beneficial in understanding the Washington and the public debate around the world. Attendees enjoyed issues of the Middle East, Iran, the opportunity to talk with FDD’s experts throughout the evening in an informal setting, granting them a better understanding of the range and the issue of genocide, and the depth of FDD’s important work. purpose of sanctions by the U.S. and Europe. Very good speakers.” — Ruth Sanders, Legislative Fellow, U.S. House of Ambassador Richard Benjamin Weinthal Robert “Bud” Dan and Angela Japha, Carlson Vice Chairman, Research Fellow, FDD McFarlane Board Washington Forum 2010 Representatives Committee FDD of Advisors, FDD Host Committee on Energy and Commerce, THursday, December 9 Subcommittee on Oversight Reception & Dinner with Ambassador Husain Haqqani and Investigations- Republican Staff Ambassador Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s envoy to the United States, hosted FDD friends and scholars for dinner at his residence. The event coincided with Washington Forum and was aimed at illustrating the importance of the Pakistan-US relationship and how civil society institutions such as FDD can contribute to strengthening it. Referring to FDD’s work in defending democracy, Ambassador Haqqani said, “Only through democracy can nations overcome their various challenges and Pakistan’s return to democracy has been a transformative development.”

Lee Zeplowitz, K.T. McFarland Ambassador Hussain Haqqani Fran Townsend, Paula Dobriansky, Ambassador Richard and Charlie Moed and Cliff May Carlson, Ambassador Hussain Haqqani

8 Thursday, December 9

Multiple Battlefields in the Long War: A Conversation with Bill Roggio, FDD Senior Fellow and Editor of FDD’s The Long War Journal - www.longwarjournal.org

Moderator: Cliff May, President, FDD

Bill Roggio, a veteran of the U.S. Army, founded The Long War Journal in 2007. He first embedded as a journalist with the U.S. Marines in Anbar province in Iraq in 2005, and has since embedded with the US Army, the Iraqi Army and police, Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow, FDD and the Georgian Army in Iraq, and the Canadian Army in Afghanistan. “The new journalism practiced Over the past few years, The Long War Journal has developed a solid reputation even among the terrorists the U.S. is fighting. After Faisal Shahzad’s attempted by The Long War Journal helps bombing in New York’s Times Square on May 1, 2010, Roggio recalled, “I got an keep our focus and increases the email from someone who identified himself as the spokesman of the Pakistani Taliban” which pointed to a video claiming credit for the attack. Roggio quickly competitive metabolism of the confirmed that the individual was a spokesman for the terrorist group with his media.” military sources. “We published an article of that within 10 hours of the attempted bombing [explaining the Taliban was behind the attack]… The administration, I - John Avlon, The Daily Beast think, took 5 or 6 days [to recognize this].” “Bill Roggio is bookmarked on my iPad” When asked to speak about the findings of the 9/11 Commission, media reports — Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Treasury designations indicating that The Long War Journal was also able to confirm that a Taliban commander- Iran is working with Sunni jihadi groups, Hakimullah Mehsud-was alive, despite multiple reports that he had been Roggio stated, “There has been Iranian killed, including reports from the U.S. government. But the commander involvement, specifically through the appears on the tape claiming credit for the Times Square attack, confirming Tehran’s elite Quds force.” He added, he was alive. “Within a day I had two major scoops,” Roggio recalled. “Everyone says Sunni and Shia [terror groups] can’t work together. They have a Roggio argued that the U.S. military is earning some tactical success in common enemy: the United States.” Afghanistan, but noted that the Afghan government is still plagued by corruption and perceptions of domestic illegitimacy. “The military recognizes Roggio also noted that the groups it, but fails to know what to do with it.” fighting the United States work with one another when it serves their purposes. In Roggio’s view, the Taliban has gained a lot of ground. “The Taliban took us “We like to isolate Iraq as if it has nothing to the point of almost a defeat last year in Afghanistan,” Roggio explained. to do with the war in Afghanistan, but “People say all we have to do is attack North Waziristan, but it’s the Pakistani we have Al-Qaeda leaders based in the state itself” that is responsible for supporting our enemies in many cases. Pakistani tribal areas still sending money and fighters into Iraq.” Roggio argued that the United States should exert more pressure on Pakistan by associating more closely with India. “I think we’re making a really big mistake When asked what a victory might look by keeping India at arm’s length. We’ve given Pakistan billions of dollars since like, Roggio replied, “it’s not going to be a 9/11 and all it has bought us is dead U.S. soldiers.” victory like we had in World War II… For example, we’re not really going to know The Afghan army is not ready to take the lead, Roggio said, and “they won’t be what victory looks like in Iraq for another ready in 2014. The military is just trying to play for more time. That’s the 10 or 20 years.” strategy.” 9 Address by Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL)

Moderator: Cliff May, President, FDD In his first major foreign policy address Kirk affirmed that he backs legislation since being elected to the upper prohibiting the U.S. Export-Import chamber of Congress in November, bank from providing financing for any Senator Mark Kirk praised FDD’s company doing prohibited projects in Iran sanctions work and FDD’s The Iran. He also seeks tougher measures Long War Journal. against China. Indeed, he noted that China has invested approximately $40 Kirk described the extent of Iran’s billion in Iran’s energy sector, including low-enriched uranium production at $29 billion in upstream projects, and $10 Natanz as of October 31. The Iranians billion for petrochemicals, refineries and Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) are “enriching uranium in 29 cascades pipeline projects. with over 4,800 P1 centrifuges,” and they are benefiting from North Kirk argued that Washington should do Korean assistance on nuclear and more to help the Green Movement in ballistic missile activities, he said. Iran, with a comprehensive and cohesive “The President should speak directly and publicly to the dissidents of Iran, He should name their names directly from the White House podium.” — Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO) However, he added that the Iranian strategy to advance human rights and “FDD is doing very good work. economy is vulnerable, particularly democracy, in much the same manner The Foundation helped us in since Iran depends on imports for up President Ronald Reagan supported to 40% of its gasoline. dissidents in the Soviet Union. developing better details and awareness on the gasoline- Kirk praised the bipartisan “The President should speak directly Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, and publicly to the dissidents of Iran,” sanctions issue. And it has Accountability and Divestment Act Kirk said. “He should name their been a great resource to the (CISADA), which was signed into law names directly from the White House on July 1, 2010, with “key sanctions podium. He should invite members of Congress.” targeting banks with correspondent the Green Movement to meet with — Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) relationships or those doing business him at the White House.” The senator with Iran.” However, Kirk lamented then mentioned ten political prisoners that the Obama administration has in Iran by name. thus far only sanctioned one company under the Comprehensive Act, the After warning that an Iranian bomb NaftIran Intertrade Company (NICO). could result in a nuclear arms race He further noted that there has been among Arab states, including Saudi no evidence that many companies Arabia and Egypt, Senator Kirk have stopped doing business with concluded by arguing for “real, Iran, and “the administration has not meaningful, potentially imploding delivered two key reports that were sanctions” on Iran. Kirk received a due to Congress on October 1.” standing ovation.

10 Understanding the Nature of the Iranian Regime An anatomy of its ideology, actions, and statecraft

Panelists: The Honorable Irwin Cotler, Former Canadian Attorney General and Current Liberal Party MP Mark Fitzpatrick, Former State Department Official, Nuclear Proliferation Analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Mehdi Khalaji, Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy Emanuele Ottolenghi, Senior Fellow, FDD

Moderator: David Sanger, Pulitzer Prize-winning Reporter, New York Times Stacey Popovsky, Executive Director, Lisa and Michael Leffell Foundation Columnist David Sanger noted that Iran is a remarkable challenge for the U.S. and its allies. He noted that leaked State Department cables, now known as WikiLeaks, offered new insights into U.S. policy on Iran under presidents Bush and Obama.

Claudia Rosett, Journalist-in-Residence, FDD David Sanger, The Hon. Irwin Cotler, Emanuele Ottolenghi, Mark Fitzpatrick, and Mehdi Khalaji

“Just as we had suspected, the degree to which the Bush administration had been engaged in Iraq, and particularly the surge in Iraq, in some ways paralyzed the administration from dealing very fully with the Iran issue,” said Sanger.

Today, he noted, “there’s a widespread belief that the sanctions will hurt the Iranian regime, and ordinary Iranians, and perhaps turn them against the West’s efforts. But there’s not much optimism that the sanctions currently contemplated would halt the Iranian nuclear program.” Col. Reginald Bostick, Senior Army Fellow, Institute of World Politics Sanger noted that little has been written about what the U.S. will do if sanctions fail to change the Iranian strategic calculus. He suggested scenarios in which Iran might develop an ambiguous nuclear capability: the “Japan option,” whereby it maintains the ability to build and field nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks, or “the Israeli option,” whereby it builds nuclear weapons but does not officially acknowledge their existence.

Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department official, began by noting that since 1990, the U.S. intelligence community has been saying that within five years, the Iranians could have an atomic bomb.

11 Canadian parliamentarian Irwin Cotler noted that the Obama Adminsitration had much to learn from Ronald Reagan, who highlighted the plight of dissidents when he was negotiating an arms control treaty with the Soviets. Cotler argued that the U.S. and its allies can embolden Iranian civic groups and trade David Sanger, Reporter, New The Hon. Irwin Cotler, Canadian Liberal Party MP unions, while pressuring the regime York Times over its human rights violations and When Sanger asked him if an Iranian that Iran, at that time, likely thought sponsorship of terror. “breakout” would require nine months it might be the next target of the of enrichment and six months of United States. On the importance of Western weaponization, Fitzpatrick stated companies enforcing sanctions that it was “unlikely that Iran would FDD senior fellow Emanuele against Iran, Ottolenghi noted that, do that” unless they thought they had Ottolenghi suggested that sanctions “Chinese and Russian firms can enough enriched uranium to produce were now helping to set the program build refineries… but most of the a significant number of weapons. back. “Cost/benefit analysis… petrochemical refining sector of Iran [indicate that inspections and was built by Western companies.” Sanger then asked Fitzpatrick whether it was possible that Iran could be mounting a secret effort, “If we’re talking about a set of measures that will what he dubbed the “sneakout” option in another secret enrichment cause considerable damage and discomfort to the facility, like the one in Qom. Iranian economy, driving a wedge between the regime “Iran said they’re going to have 10 and the people, then sanctions will work” more enrichment facilities and they told the IAEA that they’re not going - Emanuele Ottolenghi, Senior Fellow, FDD to say where they are,” Fitzpatrick said. But, he added, “given the sanctions] raise the cost. But if On the overall efficacy of sanctions, problems that they’re having with the regime is just ideological, the Ottolenghi concluded, “if we’re talking their centrifuges at Natanz, I think it’s sanctions have another important about a set of measures that will cause unlikely that they’d be able to equip a function: the effect of delaying the considerable damage and discomfort secret plant somewhere else.” program.” to the Iranian economy, driving a wedge between the regime and the Iran analyst Mehdi Khalaji argued that Sanger asked Ottolenghi, who is based people, then sanctions will work.” the Iranian leaders have no long-term in Belgium, to respond to the European strategy, but that Supreme Leader Ali argument that any attack on Iran would Khamenei is reluctant to take any lead to a catastrophic conflict. action that could endanger the survival of the regime. “I think it’s perfectly reasonable and even desirable that officials harbor Sanger asked Khalaji if the US that skepticism,” Ottolenghi said. invasion of Iraq in 2003 had an impact “It’s a mistake to go around publicly on the Iranian calculus about its and state such skepticism.” nuclear program. Khalaji responded

12 A Conversation with Ambassador Uri Lubrani, Israel’s former ambassador to Iran and current Iran Advisor to Israel’s Deputy Prime Minister

Discussant: Uzi Rubin, Former Head of Israel’s Missile Defense Organization

Moderator: Cliff May, President, FDD

“Iran is on the war path, and has been for some time,” said Uri Lubrani, Israel’s last official ambassador to Iran. “Some of the people I work with think Ahmadinejad is a clown. He is a clever, sophisticated son of a bitch. He knows what he’s aiming at.”

Lubrani explained that, during his tenure, Iranian foreign policy was often blustery Uri Lubrani, Israel’s former ambassador to Iran and at times even self-contradictory, but that the Iranian elites understood their national interests. He recounted a remark by a departing British diplomat in Iran: “The Iranians are a people who say the opposite of what they do, and do the When asked how the Green movement opposite of what they say, but that does not necessarily mean that what they do could change the regime without does not conform to what they think.” weapons, Lubrani stated, “Where there is a will, there is a way… In the The West, Lubrani said, has been trying to talk to the Iranians about their nuclear Soviet Union, the dissidents were ambitions for the past five or six years. During that time, he said, the British foreign in the same position, possibly even secretary has shuttled to Tehran six, seven, eight times or more, each time thinking worse.” he had made some progress, but with no progress at all to show for it. Lubrani stated that he believed “the Green Movement is mature, it’s ripe, it ought to be helped, and it’s going to do the job.” He noted, however, that the West needs to “give them the feeling that they have got allies outside. This has not been done by the United States, certainly not by Europe. I know because we have been inundated with questions from people who are inside, saying, ‘where is the United States?’” Uzi Rubin, regarded as Israel’s top missile defense expert, noted that the Iranians have made substantial progress in building long-range missiles and have improved their Looking back on his analysis of Iran capabilities in space. “Today, they fly their own satellites… he said. “They couldn’t make over the years, Lubrani offered this: a missile 25 years ago.” “I’ve been wrong on many things. On Current Iranian technology is roughly on par with the U.S. technology of the the matter of Iran, with all possible 1960’s, Rubin explained, when the U.S. put men on the moon. Their missiles use humility, I haven’t been wrong. I went two stages, with solid propellant. For comparison, Rubin explained that the U.S. to see my foreign minister in 1978 to Polaris AI and Minuteman I missiles were the first American missiles to use solid tell him that there was going to be a propellant. Rubin posited that the Iranians continue to master the infrastructure mind-boggling revolution. And he necessary to advance their domestic missile program. didn’t believe me. Neither did the ambassador -- your ambassador to When asked whether the Iranian people could overthrow the current regime in Iran, Tehran.” Lubrani stated that, “the West has one big ally in Iran, and that’s the Iranian people. The Iranian people are the only agents that can change the regime in Iran.” 13 Lunch Briefing: Hezbollah: Iran’s Foreign Legion

Panelists: Tony Badran, Research Fellow, FDD Dr. Walid Phares, Senior Fellow & Director of the Future of Terrorism Project, FDD

Moderator: Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Director, Center for the Study “Washington Forum provided of Terrorist Radicalization at FDD a lot of interesting viewpoints FDD’s Director of Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization Daveed from highly qualified and Gartenstein-Ross noted that until September 11th, 2001, Hezbollah was articulate speakers.” responsible for the deadliest terrorist attack on United States citizens: the 1983 attack on the U.S. Marines in Beirut. The Iran-backed group was also involved, he — Uzi Rubin, Former noted, in the 1992 and 1994 attacks on Jewish and Israeli interests in Argentina. Head of Israel’s Missle He explained that Hezbollah occupies a unique niche, as partly a non-state group, and partly a state unto itself, in Lebanon. “The Lebanese cannot be said Defense Organization to enjoy force of arms within their own country so long as Hezbollah has such power,” Gartenstein-Ross said.

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Tony Badran and Dr. Walid Phares

Hezbollah is a powerful actor from Latin America to West Africa, Gartenstein- Ross continued, and its role in drug trafficking is a real source of concern. The group survived a full-scale Israeli attack in 2006, which magnified its prestige in the region, and it continues to afford Iran a second strike capability in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran.

FDD Research Fellow Tony Badran explained that, according to conventional wisdom, Hezbollah’s very existence was a response to the Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon. However, Badran contests that narrative. He notes that Iranian Islamic revolutionary cadres were present in Lebanon in the 1970s. These cadres, who went on to depose the Shah, seize power in Iran, and form Hezbollah, had clearly been operating in the country prior to Israel’s 1982 invasion, training Lebanese Shi’a cadres and laying the ground for the emergence of Hezbollah.

FDD senior fellow Walid Phares referred to Hezbollah as “a micro-regime,” describing how it had suffered a setback in 2005, in the wake of Lebanon’s Cedar Revolution, and in the aftermath of the group’s aggression against Lebanese civilians in 2008. However, Phares notes that it has since enjoyed a significant comeback.

14 Badran was also quick to note that while the group enjoys substantial power inside Lebanon, it may nonetheless face international prosecution for involvement in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

Phares posited that many Lebanese remain ambivalent about Hezbollah. For example, on March 8, 2005, the group failed to bring out significant crowds of supporters into the streets following the Hariri assassination. At best, Hezbollah managed to field about 250,000 demonstrators. The next week, the pro-American March 14 coalition drew an estimated crowd of 1.5 million.

Phares noted that Hezbollah has intimidated the population, killing Cedar Revolution leaders, parliamentarians and journalists. This was part of a campaign to erode the government’s will to pursue Hariri’s killers.

Dr. Walid Phares, Senior Daveed Gartenstein- Tony Badran, Research Fellow, & Director of Ross, Director, Center Fellow, FDD the Future of Terrorism for the Study of Terrorist Project at FDD Radicalization at FDD

Badran noted that some of the proposed solutions to diluting the power of Hezbollah, including an Israeli withdrawal from the contested “Shebaa Farms area,” are misguided. “I think it’s all fairly delusional,” said Badran. “Hezbollah ultimately has power because it has weapons.”

In response to a question about how Hezbollah compares to an organization like the Tamil Tigers, Badran explained that it enjoys substantial state support from Iran. Indeed, when Azeri authorities apprehended two Hezbollah operatives in August 2010 on charges of targeting the Israeli embassy in Baku, they were later released after Iranian officials directly intervened on the prisoners’ behalf.

Phares explained that Hezbollah has been building its presence across Latin America. Specifically, Hezbollah has spread its tentacles into the tri-border area between Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil, and has an open presence in Venezuela. In some of these Latin American countries, Hezbollah works with drug cartels.

15 Chasing Middle East Peace Elusive or achievable? “I think it is appropriate that the Foundation for the Defense Panelists: Ghaith al-Omari, Advocacy Director, American Task Force on Palestine of Democracies has chosen to and former foreign policy advisor to then-Palestinian Prime Minister focus this year’s Washington Mahmoud Abbas Aaron David Miller, Former Middle East peace negotiator under Forum on countering the Iranian Presidents Clinton and Bush and Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow threat. Iran’s effort to acquire Wilson Center , Vice President of Research, FDD a nuclear weapons capability Dr. Jonathan Schanzer poses one of the greatest Moderator: Bret Stephens, Editorial Page Columnist, Wall Street Journal, Board of Advisors, FDD international security threats we face. President Obama Wall Street Journal columnist Bret Stephens set the scene by noting that a freeze on Israeli settlement activity had just ended, and the prospects of has stressed many times reaching a peace deal between the Palestinians and Israelis, brokered by that ‘We are determined to Washington, appeared dim. Former Palestinian peace negotiator Ghaith al- Omari agreed that the diplomatic impasse between the United States, Israel, prevent Iran from developing and the Palestinians was deepening. nuclear weapons,’ because he recognizes the profoundly destabilizing impact of a nuclear Iran in the Middle East and the serious consequences it would have to our global non- proliferation aims.” — Dr. Gary Samore, White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Bret Stephens, Editorial page columnist, Wall Street Journal Counter-terrorism and Arms Former US peace negotiator Aaron David Miller counseled caution against Control the impulse to try to broker a comprehensive peace deal before the Israelis and Palestinians were actually prepared to follow through on one. He argued that Washington cannot want peace more than the two parties.

As he put it, success is the most compelling ideology in the Middle East. Success breeds power, and it breeds constituencies. After the failure of the Oslo Accords and the second Intifada in fall 2000, he warned that Washington should not attempt to engage in high-risk diplomatic endeavors. “To try and fail and try again,” he joked, is a great motto for a high school football team, but not for the diplomacy of the greatest power on earth.

16 Bret Stephens, Editorial Page Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Vice Aaron David Miller, Public Policy Ghaith al-Omari, Advocacy Columnist, Wall Street Journal President of Research, FDD Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center Director, American Task Force on Palestine

FDD’s Vice President for Research Center for Policy and Survey The U.S. had a lot of credibility Jonathan Schanzer explained that Research, have been consistently among the Palestinians and Israelis Hamas was originally an ideological wrong, he said. When President in the wake of its overwhelming challenge to Yasser Arafat’s Fatah Clinton advanced his Middle East victory against Iraq in the first Gulf movement, but over time, the peace plan in 2000 and 2001, polls War of 1991, Miller added. Recent perception that Fatah was corrupt suggested that the Palestinians would U.S. failures in Iraq since 2003 have or selling out to the Israelis and the accept it. In the end, they launched changed that, said Omari. U.S. gave Hamas more widespread the al-Aqsa Intifada. Similarly, polls in political appeal among Palestinians. 2005 erroneously predicted that Fatah Schanzer noted that these points Suicide bombings were also popular would win the 2006 elections, when in underscored the weakness of a concept among Palestinians, Schanzer noted. fact Hamas won a stunning victory. purportedly popular in the Obama White House known as “linkage,” according to which the U.S. must resolve “To achieve peace, the Iranian threat must be curbed.” the Palestinian-Israeli conflict before it can solve more difficult problems, such as Iran. He noted that Miller and Omari — Jonathan Schanzer, Vice President of Research, FDD seemed to suggest that if the U.S. could reign in Iran and demonstrate strength in the Middle East by other means, it Hamas is the strong horse right now, Miller explained that it didn’t might help shore up confidence in the said Schanzer, but in the aftermath matter which Palestinian faction was U.S. role as peacemaker. of the 2007 civil war that granted stronger because, he argued, neither Hamas control of the Gaza Strip and the Israelis nor the Palestinians Schanzer argued that, to achieve peace, left Fatah clinging to control of the displayed any urgent desire to make the Iranian threat must be curbed. It West Bank, it’s virtually impossible peace. A major problem is “the has armed Hezbollah with 60,000 to know who is the rightful leader absence of ownership,” he said. “Jim rockets now pointing south at Israel. of the Palestinian people. Omari Baker’s notion that we can’t want It has also armed and trained Hamas, agreed that the political landscape peace any more than any of the other threatening both Israel and the Fatah had become complicated, but he parties does never goes down easy, faction. The Iranian nuclear program argued that if an election were held in but he always kept things in their puts Israel’s long-term security in the Palestinian territories tomorrow, proper perspective.” question, and makes Israel less likely Fatah would likely win. to make concessions. “Nobody ever washed a rental car,” Schanzer questioned how Omari Miller continued. “It’s one of the If we neutralize the threat of Iran, he could arrive at such a judgment. greatest pieces of philosophy that I’ve said, we increase the chances that the Polls, particularly those conducted ever received.” Israelis and Palestinians will return to by Khalil Shiqaqi of the Palestinian the negotiating table.

17 Sanctions: What’s Next? Is enforcement enough?

Panelists: Tom Delare, Director of Terrorism Finance and Sanctions Policy, Department of State Mark Dubowitz, Executive Director, FDD Daniel L. Glaser, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, Department of Treasury Dr. Ken Katzman, Specialist in Middle East affairs, Congressional Research Service Don MacDonald, Staff Director, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade

Moderator: Orde Kittrie, Professor at Arizona State University, nuclear proliferation expert, former State Department attorney specializing in nuclear affairs and Senior Fellow, FDD “We have not brought the full weight of the United States economy and her ability to bring pressure on the Iranians to date, but we should. Time is not on our side. We must act now or suffer under a very, Orde Kittrie, ASU Law Professor Don MacDonald, Staff Director, House and Senior Fellow, FDD Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, very dangerous brave new Nonproliferation and Trade Middle East armed with nuclear weapons.” — Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

Nuclear proliferation expert Orde Kittrie summarized the state of Iran’s nuclear program and the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions, drawing on Under Secretary of State William Burns’ testimony to Congress on December 1, 2010. Burns noted that the Obama administration had persuaded many major European and Asian firms -- including Royal Dutch Shell, Statoil, ENI, Total and Inpex -- to terminate existing sanctionable activities in Iran and assure that they would pursue no such activities in the future.

18 According to reliable estimates, Iran may When asked if the vigorous Glaser defended the Obama already be losing as much as $60 billion enforcement of sanctions is likely administration’s record on sanctions in potential energy investments. Major to change the Iranian government’s and sanctions enforcement, noting companies including Lukoil, Reliance, plan to advance its nuclear program, how much work he had done, as Vitol, Glencore, IPG, Tupras and Congressional Research Service a representative of the Treasury Trafigura have all stopped selling refined analyst Ken Katzman explained that Department. “Since the U.N. resolution petroleum products to Iran. Until July the more Iran struggles to escape and since the enactment of CISADA, 2010, Iran imported roughly 130,000 them, the more entangled it becomes. I’ve traveled with [State Department sanctions czar] Bob Einhorn to China, “There’s still enormous work to be done, but I think it’s to South Korea, to Japan to discuss and having an impact. I think that we should be looking encourage vigorous implementation of international sanctions. I’ve at going after crude-oil sales in ways that don’t spook the traveled with folks from [senior State Department official Tom Delare’s] energy markets.” office to Turkey.” — Mark Dubowitz, Executive Director, FDD “And President Obama signed what I thought, and what a number of people have said, were extremely effective, unilateral sanctions that the Congress passed in CISADA,” Glaser said. “Those sanctions have been extremely effective.”

“There’s still enormous work to be done,” said FDD’s executive director Mark Dubowitz, but “I think it’s Daniel Glaser, Deputy Assistant Tom Delare, Director of Terrorism having an impact. I think that we Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Finance and Sanctions Policy, Financial Crimes, Department of Treasury Department of State should be looking at going after crude-oil sales. I think Don is exactly barrels per day of refined petroleum “As Iran tries to evade the sanctions, right that we shouldn’t do it in ways products. By October, that number had more information comes out about that are too direct, that don’t require dropped 85 percent to 19,000. how much money it has, where the grand gestures because we don’t want money is, who’s moving the money, to spook the energy markets.” Sanctions are clearly having an impact what countries are helping Iran move on Iran’s economy, Kittrie said, but their the money, where are the assets, et “Let’s make it even more difficult primary purpose is to change Iranian cetera. And so I believe Iran is caught to buy from Iran,” he continued. leaders’ minds about the wisdom of in a spider web of international “Let’s do this in a way that’s quick proceeding with their nuclear program. sanctions,” said Katzman. and methodical but yet is obsessive, He noted that the sanctions are, thus determined incrementalism. And far, coming up short. When Daniel Glaser, Deputy Assistant I think that’s what I’m seeing from Secretary for Terrorist Financing this administration and from this As of October 31, 2010, Kittrie said, and Financial Crimes at the U.S. Congress… In those quiet moments Iran’s total low-enriched uranium Department of Treasury, was asked if when I’m deeply afraid of what’s production was estimated at 3,183 current U.S. sanctions will be enough to next, I’m thankful for the work that’s kilograms. According to nuclear stop Iran’s nuclear program, he replied being done, because they are truly expert David Albright, 3,000 that sanctions need to be dynamic determined.” kilograms of low-enriched uranium because the Iranian regime’s responses is sufficient to produce enough will be dynamic. Washington’s sanctions highly enriched uranium for three regime needs to adapt constantly to the functioning nuclear warheads. changing face of Iranian trade. 19 Friday, December 10 A Conversation with former Secretary of Homeland Security, The Honorable Michael Chertoff

Moderator: Ambassador Richard Carlson, Vice Chairman, FDD

Former Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff spoke of the importance of maintaining multiple layered defenses against terrorists. In regard to religious worker visas, he explained that “we’ve extended the Saudi visa period for five years, The Hon. Michael Chertoff with the expectation that they were going to give us very specific intelligence information, and they’ve been really good about that.” Chertoff noted that in late 2010, Saudi intelligence cooperation resulted in the tips that prevented bombings Chertoff agreed that behavioral of aircraft bound for the U.S. from Yemen. profiling was worthwhile, but argued that racial and religious profiling is When asked whether the Transportation Security Administration, which had ineffective. “I’ve looked at the last 35 recently come under fire for increasingly intrusive pat-downs, could learn from homegrown terrorist cases… There the Israeli model, which profiles for terrorists, rather than searching for weapons, are comparatively few South Asians Chertoff said, “There’s a lot that’s done in terms of behavioral profiling,” Chertoff and Arabs. [Potential attackers said, “things that aren’t visible on the surface.” include] blacks, Hispanics, blond- haired, blue-eyed… they come in all shapes, sizes and colors.” “It’s a myth when people say the Iranians and Hezbollah have nothing to do with Al-Qaeda. There’s a saying in the When asked what sort of cooperation Chertoff had seen between Iran and Middle East: Me against my brother, my brother and I Sunni terrorist groups, Chertoff stated, “it’s a myth when people against my cousin, my cousin and I against everybody else.” say the Iranians and Hezbollah — The Hon. Michael Chertoff, have nothing to do with Al-Qaeda. There’s a saying in the Middle East: former Secretary of Homeland Security Me against my brother, my brother and I against my cousin, my cousin However, he added, “no matter what your system is, there are going to be some and I against everybody else.” failures. No matter how good your intelligence is, you’re going to miss people. [The more intrusive measures] gives you a second bite at the apple.” In response to a question about Saudi Arabia’s role in financing Chertoff explained that the airline security practices now going into effect terrorist activity, Chertoff said, “like had their roots in policy deliberations held years earlier. “We’ve known for most countries it’s not monolithic. years that magnetometers do not pick up certain kinds of devices that can There are fundamentalists, including be kept on a person’s body If it’s non-metallic, if it’s chemical, if it’s liquid, it’s some wealthy ones, who continue not going to be picked up,” he said. to support extremists. The current king and leadership are very good on There’s no way around the personal intrusion problem, Chertoff said, until we get counterterrorism, strong intelligence a technological fix. “The Israelis have 50 flights a day,” he pointed out. “We have sharing allies of the U.S. They really 27,000 flights a day. Their flights are international, so they have a lot more data.” crack down on cells when they find them. They just arrested several To get comparable amounts of data in the United States, “we’d have to Hoover up hundred people a few weeks ago.” quantities of data about every American that would be staggering. Phone number, internet, data mining…And Congress has forbidden any data mining regarding domestic air travel.”

20 Increasing Threats, Diminishing Options: Should the Military Option be Employed against Iran? When does this become the only option?

Panelists: Major General (Ret.) Yaakov Amidror, National Security Advisor to Israel’s Prime minister, Former Head of the IDF’s Research & Assessment Division charged with preparing the Israeli National Intelligence Assessment Reuel Marc Gerecht, Former CIA Iran operative and FDD Senior Fellow Jeffrey Goldberg, National Correspondent, The Atlantic Dr. Ken Pollack, Director, Saban Center, Brookings Institution, former Director for Persian Gulf affairs at the NSC

Moderator: Cliff May, President, FDD “The IRGC is pervasive throughout the Iranian economy, and it presents us with a great array of opportunities to really enhance the pressure that we’ve put on Iran.” — Daniel Glaser, Deputy Dr. Ken Pollack, Director, Saban Jeffrey Goldberg, National Correspondent, Center, Brookings Institution The Atlantic Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, Department of Treasury

Jeffrey Goldberg, a journalist for The Atlantic, recently spent several weeks in Israel interviewing military and government officials, and concluded that there was a better than 50% chance that Israel would strike Iran’s nuclear facilities by the end of 2011.

Since then, Goldberg said, he would “elongate that timeline a little bit, mainly because of the Stuxnet virus and other -- how shall we call them? -- active programs to deny Iran the knowledge of its scientists.” This was a reference to the recent assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists.

21 Goldberg argued that Israeli Prime As for Iranian reprisals against America, He reminded the audience about the Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is Gerecht added. “I think [the Iranians] Gulf War. “In 1991, I remember my “slightly more comfortable now that… are less proficient than people make friends who worked the technical side the sanctions regime that Obama’s them out to be…the repercussions [in U.S. intelligence]… assuring us we put in place is working. But ultimately from an attack, whether successful or knew exactly what the Iraqi [nuclear] program looked like, three major facilities, eleven smaller facilities.” After the war, once US officials were on the ground, we learned that “there were three other massive facilities that we didn’t even know about. At least two of those three facilities probably could have eventually produced a nuclear weapon.”

Reuel Marc Gerecht, Senior Fellow, FDD Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, National Security Advisor to Israel’s Prime Minister Gerecht agreed that military intervention is not the answer until other options are exhausted. “We it won’t work.” Accordingly, he still not, I think are quite sustainable. We need to be doing more to help the expects Israel to strike Iran by the could absorb it, and if you think about Iranian opposition,” he said. “I think end of 2011. what the repercussions would be of the we need to make a much greater focus Iranians not actually having a nuclear on human rights in Iran. I think it Israeli Major General (ret) Yaakov weapon, then the blowback isn’t all is both the right thing to do and the Amidror remarked that, “Israel that severe.” strategically smart thing to do.” cannot agree to a nuclear Iran.” He declined to indicate whether or Ken Pollack, a former official at the Goldberg stated that the Green not Israel would attack Iran, and National Security Council, disagreed. Movement could pay the biggest price proclaimed, “we don’t look forward “I think there will be quite a nasty if a military strike is launched against to war with Iran,” but said “we will response, whether the stars on the Iran. “I think the more compelling be ready when and if the decision will plane have five or six points,” he argument is that the regime would use be taken.” said. any attack to kill what remains of the Green Movement. I tend to see an FDD’s President Cliff May questioned “For decades, we’ve been told that attack as setting back the democracy the conventional wisdom that Iranians if you bomb a people long enough, movement, not giving it legs.” would rally around the flag if attacked. they’ll blame their own government FDD senior fellow Reuel Marc Gerecht for getting them into the mess in the Goldberg noted that the politics of the argued that “many of the worst-case first place. It just doesn’t work that Arab states are far more cynical. One scenarios are likely. The Israelis would way. The people tend very consistently Arab foreign minister told him that, be the targets of the most severe to blame the people bombing them,” “his dream is that Israel will attack reprisals. Hezbollah would let loose at Pollack said. and bungle it, and the Iranians will them… Hamas, I’m not so sure what attack U.S. interests, forcing Obama to they would do other than shoot their “I’m pretty confident that the U.S. Air come in and wipe Iran off the map – to missiles, which are far less lethal than Force and the U.S. Navy, the American borrow some language. What we’ll get, what Hezbollah has.” military can destroy every facility in he said, is that the Persian threat will be Iran that we know about,” Pollack neutralized and the Americans will be continued. “But we don’t know what [angry] at Israel, and [the Arab states] we don’t know.” won’t have had to do anything.”

22 Address on Iran by Dr. Gary Samore, White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Counter-terrorism and Arms Control

Moderator: Mark Dubowitz, Executive Director, FDD

Dr. Gary Samore, White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction, Counter-terrorism and Arms Control, described Iran’s nuclear program as a serious security threat to the United States and its allies. He also emphasized the importance of international sanctions and how the continuing and increasing pressure on Iran is part of President Obama’s strategy to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Samore stressed that sanctions against violating countries are necessary to enforce the credibility of the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. Samore described Iran as the “poster child” for a country in violation of these rules, which include both IAEA safeguards and UN Security Council resolutions. The higher a price Iran pays for its violations, Samore argued, the less likely other countries will be to follow in its footsteps. “Iran’s efforts to acquire a “Conversely, if Iran is seen as successfully defying the UN Security Council nuclear weapons capability in its bid to acquire nuclear weapons, other countries are less likely to be poses one of the most serious deterred by the threat of Security Council action,” Samore said. international security threats Samore explained that the second purpose of sanctions is to make it more difficult that this country faces.” for Tehran to acquire the materials necessary to execute its nuclear plan. Under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1929, all countries are legally required to “take all — Dr. Gary Samore, White necessary means to prevent the supply, sale or transfer, directly or indirectly, from House Coordinator for their territories or by their nationals or using their red flagged vessels or aircraft, of all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology which could contribute Weapons of Mass Destruction to Iran’s enrichment-related reprocessing or heavy water-related activities, or to (WMD), Counter-terrorism the development of nuclear weapons delivery systems.” and Arms Control In Samore’s view, this resolution is an “air-tight and legally binding” requirement for countries to deny Iran access to essential nuclear components.

A recent UN resolution bans Iranian investment in nuclear industries abroad, which is intended to stop Iran from investing in foreign mines or other deposits of natural uranium. Iran’s inability to acquire essential materials from foreign sources has seriously delayed the completion of a 40-megawatt heavy water research reactor, which is a potential source of plutonium.

Samore said the third purpose of sanctions is to influence Iran’s calculation of the costs and benefits of continuing to pursue its nuclear program. In his April 2009 speech in Prague, President Obama remarked that the United States wants Iran to take its rightful place in the community of nations, both politically and economically, and that it supports Iran’s right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy capabilities under robust international inspections.

23 “Of course, Iran has failed to Dubowitz noted after Samore’s remarks take advantage of that offer. As a that the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, consequence, we’ve moved to increase Accountability and Divestment Act the cost side of the ledger, including (CISADA), which President Obama economic sanctions,” said Samore. signed on July 1, 2010, has significantly amplified the effect of economic Iran’s clear rejection of Obama’s offer sanctions by making it difficult for of engagement enabled Washington to companies that do business with create UN Security Council Resolution Iran to trade with the United States. 1929 in June 2010, establishing the most “Iran is effectively unable to conduct “Conversely, if Iran is seen as successfully defying the UN Security Council in its bid to acquire nuclear weapons, other countries are less likely to be deterred by the threat of Security Council action.” — Dr. Gary Samore, White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Counter- terrorism and Arms Control

comprehensive set of sanctions on Iran transactions in dollars, the Pound or to date. After the passage of Res. 1929, the Euro,” agreed Samore. Australia, Canada, Norway, Japan, South Korea and others adopted additional Samore added that international sanctions against Iran. Samore noted companies have recognized the risk that Res.1929 was designed to provide of doing business with Iran and are a platform for other countries to take both abandoning existing business additional measures. opportunities and not seeking new ones. It remains to be seen how high Samore addressed the fact that current Iran’s pain threshold is, and whether nuclear negotiations with Iran were Iran is ready to comply with UN at a standstill. He suggested that Security Council requirements to Iran agreed to reopen negotiations in stop its reprocessing and enrichment order to “manipulate the appearance programs in exchange for suspension of negotiations to weaken existing of sanctions. sanctions and avoid additional measures.” However, Samore concluded “The choice is Iran’s,” Samore said, that “this ploy will not work. In the “but it’s up to us to make sure that wake of the Geneva talks, we and our they’re confronted and have to make allies are determined to maintain and that choice.” even increase pressure. We need to send the message to Iran that sanctions He concluded that he thought that the will only increase if Iran avoids serious world “will see the U.S. and its allies negotiations and will not be lifted until continuing to take steps [to pressure our concerns are fully addressed.” Iran through sanctions] even before the next round which is scheduled to FDD Executive Director Mark take place in Istanbul in late January.” 24 Cyberwar, Sabotage, and the Green Revolution What western intelligence services can do to stop Iran

Panelists: Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), Ranking Member, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Rodney Joffe, Cybersecurity Expert, NeuStar Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow, FDD Dr. Michael Ledeen, Former Advisor to Secretary of State Alexander “The bottom line is that sanctions Haig, FDD Freedom Scholar are clearly having a significant Moderator: Cliff May, President, FDD and increasing impact on Iran’s economy. So in that sense, Representative Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) began by noting that Attorney General Eric Holder and President Barack Obama have said that, although the George they’re a success.” Bush Administration reviewed the legality of enhanced interrogation measures — Orde Kittrie, Nuclear in the War on Terror, including waterboarding, they needed to take a third and fourth look at the issue. proliferation expert and former principal drafter of U.N. Security Council Resolutions imposing sanctions on terrorism- supporting and rogue regimes, Senior Fellow, FDD

Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow, FDD

Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), Dr. Michael Ledeen, Thomas Joscelyn, Rodney Joffe

It is now the case, Hoeksra noted that, “professionals within the intelligence community are being tried for the activities that the political leaders of this country asked them to do.”

“We will not have an intelligence community that is strong,” Hoekstra stated, “until we have a leadership that supports the intelligence community.”

Hoekstra warned of the “new realities of cyberspace.” Cybersecruity expert Rodney Joffee agreed, saying that, “the internet presents an extraordinary new challenge to security planners, giving individuals powers that only governments 25 used to possess. It connects more the president of Yemen the next day. critical infrastructure than was ever On January 4, the ambassador wrote meant to be put on a network.” a summary of that meeting and sent it back to State. Within a couple of days Joffe noted that the new threats are it was available to 500,000 people… coming from young people who “are including Private Bradley Manning teens and in their early 20s, not yet [who provided State Department taken seriously by their governments.” cables to wikileaks].” Hoekstra appeared to agree, noting that the WikiLeaks cables were revealed The discussants agreed that there was “not because of a great penetration by no need for competing intelligence a highly-sophisticated enemy.” agencies to come to consensus before producing reports for senior officials. Hoekstra added that, as a result of WikiLeaks, “people are going to be “When you homogenize it,” said Michael nervous about negotiating with us, Ledeen, “you can’t tell who’s right.” because America can’t keep a secret.” Former National Security Advisor When FDD President Cliff May Bud McFarlane noted that in the early asked whether the U.S. and its allies 1980s, President Reagan liked to hear

Dr. Michael Ledeen, Freedom Scholar, FDD Rodney Joffe, Cyber Security Expert, NeuStar

could help Iran’s Green Movement differing assessments from the Central covertly, FDD senior fellow Michael Intelligence Agency, the Defense Ledeen said that they could. Indeed, Intelligence Agency, and others. “You’d he believed it was imperative. The get sound analysis from sound people Green Movement leaders, he said, who disagreed, but it helped.” “are the most lethal people imaginable to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad.” FDD senior fellow Tom Joscelyn highlighted the importance of Shifting to the issue of intelligence finding the right material, no matter reform, Hoekstra remarked that where it originated. He noted that government agencies often had more intelligence analysts with access of an incentive to protect their own to classified information tend to institutional interests than U.S. national disregard anything derived from the interests. He recalled that when he open-source. “There’s no reason to went to Yemen in January and asked for think that on any given issue, the a briefing from embassy officials, “they guys on the inside know anything very kindly told me, ‘Congressman, we more that what’s available in open can’t share that information with you’… source,” he said. General [David] Petraeus met with 26 Address by Representative Brad Sherman (D-CA), Chairman, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade

Moderator: Cliff May, President, FDD

“Sanctions that prevented Iran Sherman said that although the from selling another barrel of oil, Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, or importing a single part for any Accountability and Divestment Act became elevator in Tehran,” Representative law on July 1, “it should have been Brad Sherman (D-CA) said, “would adopted certainly by 2002, when Iran’s Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) force Iran to choose between regime nuclear program was announced.” survival on the one hand and the penalizing insurance companies nuclear program on the other.” Sanctions worked in South Africa that do business with Iran, and and Libya, Sherman pointed out. But discouraging the World Bank and He acknowledged that such severe for sanctions to work in this case, we the IMF from providing benefits sanctions would be impossible to will need to ensure cooperation from to the Iranian government. enact, but that it might be possible other states. “With regard to the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] it “Sanctions that prevented Iran from selling another pushes the Treasury to designate” additional entities and deny them barrel of oil, or importing a single part for any elevator from doing business with U.S. companies. In short, Sherman said, in Tehran, would force Iran to choose between regime “you can’t sell paper clips to the survival on the one hand and the nuclear program on IRGC or its front groups.” the other.” — Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) Several of the bill’s measures are structured to prevent Iranian elites to enforce sanctions so significant “It is still possible to offer Russia changes from acquiring critical investment “that it’s going to cause the Tehran in our policy “ to secure their support, in their petroleum sector, or government to fear that the survival Sherman argued. “And as for China, we borrowing the money and hiring of their government is at issue.” have not even thought of hinting to foreign technicians themselves. “It Beijing that even one shipload of tennis sanctions those who pay in advance Since 1996, Sherman explained, shoes would be delayed in one U.S. port for Iranian oil, or who sign long-term the Iran Sanctions Act has given the for an hour” if the Chinese fail to uphold contracts,” Sherman said. To that President considerable authority to international sanctions on Iran. end, the legislation would help close sanction Iran. He expressed his hope one loophole the Iranian regime has that the White House would apply Sherman spoke about the Stop used to circumvent sanctions. “constant slow pressure on Iran to get Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program Act, it to change its behavior.” which he proposed in the House In closing, Sherman spoke of of Representatives, and to which South Africa, where sanctions Instead of providing companies Senators Bob Casey (D-PA) and Scott influenced the government to like Boeing with waivers to export Brown (R-MA) introduced comparable abandon atrocious behaviors. spare parts to Iran, Sherman argued, companion legislation in the Senate. “Nelson Mandela has thanked us why not tell the world “don’t fly on for those sanctions,” he said, “And any Boeing planes operated by the The Act, as Sherman explained it, I look forward for the day when a Iranian airlines, because they don’t includes measures forbidding the democratic leader of Iran thanks us have spare parts?” export of aircraft parts to Iran, for these sanctions.”

27 Excerpts from the National Post - December 16, 2010

Imagining an Iranian ICBM By: Jonathan Kay Seen from the West, Iran is a rogue menace. used to enrich it to weapons-grade -- it’s just These numbers become meaningful when Iran’s leaders, on the other hand, view their a question of the number of spin cycles. you start drawing lines on a map. Iran already country’s mission in heroic terms. “We must was able to hit Israel with the Shahab 3. With not allow those who have dominated the The other aspects of bomb construction, the Sejil, it can hit Eastern Europe. This fact world for 400 years to continue to oppress Rubin added, are relatively minor. In the may help explain why Iran hasn’t tested either us and saddle us with their arrogance,” Manhattan Project, he noted, 90% of the missile since 2009. (The high-profile missile Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared last year. effort went toward enriching the needed tests the regime has publicized over the last And then, more recently: “Everyone knows nuclear material. Once that was completed, year all have been for short-range rockets.) that in today’s world there are just two it took only six months till a successful The reason for this, Rubin suspects, is that [powers] that enjoy the strongest influence explosion was achieved. such a test would immediately set off alarm in the world -- the United States and Iran.” What is more likely is that Iran aspires to join the superpower club, As the Soviets did, Ahmadinejad believes his country is locked with the United States in an and ownership of an ICBM is the official condition of entry. epic battle for global supremacy. The purpose of the weapons that Iran is developing must Rubin’s presentation on Iran’s missile bells in Europe: It is one thing to perform the be understood in that context. program showed how quickly Iranian usual sabre-rattling routine when the putative technology is advancing. During the Iran- target is Israel. It is another thing entirely Last week, I learned about those weapons Iraq war in the 1980s, Iran was so backward when it’s Warsaw or Budapest. at a two-day conference dedicated to that it had to import its missiles from Libya. “Countering the Iranian Threat,” put on by Today, the country flies its own satellites. Nor has Iran tested any of the 18 or so BM25 the Washington, D.C.-based Foundation for missiles believed to have been transferred to Defense of Democracies. The panels were Along the way, Iran has developed an Iran from North Korea -- weapons with a full of polished, well-spoken diplomats and indigenous missile-production infrastructure. range of up to 3,500 km. This would put all journalists. But I’d say the most interesting The country now has the capability to design, of Europe up to the French border in Iran’s speaker was a gruff Israeli engineer named construct and deploy multi-stage solid-fuel cross-hairs... Uzi Rubin, the former head of Israel’s systems roughly similar to the U.S. Polaris Missile Defense Organization. A1 and Minuteman I. No one is arguing that Iran will rain death on the world as soon as it gets a fleet of Unlike the other panelists, Rubin wasn’t “Don’t be fooled by those who say the intercontinental ballistic missiles (assuming primarily interested in speculating about Iranians are incapable of [advanced it builds them at all). What is more likely is Iranian public opinion or trying to guess projects],” Rubin told the conference. “I can that Iran aspires to join the superpower club, Ahmadinejad’s state of mind. He’s spent see the confidence of their engineers. I’ve and ownership of an ICBM is the official much of his professional life carefully seen the technology. I can see the way they condition of entry... scrutinizing Iran’s growing inventory of are solving problems faster and faster.” WMD-related technology. His research is What do we do about the Iranian threat? guided by the simple question: What are Iran’s progress is best illustrated by the range Rubin said little about this enormous subject, these people building? of its weapons. In 1998, when it first began leaving it to the other panellists. In Friday’s testing its Shahab 3 liquid-fuelled ballistic National Post, I will summarize what they Rubin spent only a few minutes talking missile, its range was about 1,300 km. A said, and identify what I believe is the West’s about Tehran’s nuclear program. Everyone stretched variant with a range believed to best option. already knows that Iran has the technology be about 1,800 km was unveiled in 2004. to enrich uranium, he explained. And once Then in 2007 came a lighter version with a that technology is in place, it is pointless to declared range of 2,000 km. In 2009, Iran debate whether it is designed for “civilian” test-fired a two-stage solid-fuelled missile Jonathan Kay is a visiting fellow at the or “military” purposes: The same centrifuges called the Sejil -- whose maximum range Foundation for Defense of Democracies that enrich uranium to fuel grade can be may be close to 2,500 km. and Managing Editor of the National Post.

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