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QUARTERLY UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 16 MAY–15 AUGUST 2012 COMPILED BY MICHELE K. ESPOSITO The Quarterly Update is a summary of bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and the future of the peace process. More than 100 print, wire, television, and online sources providing U.S., Israeli, Arab, and international independent and government coverage of unfolding events are surveyed to compile the Quarterly Update. The most relevant sources are cited in JPS’s Chronology section, which tracks events day by day. JPS Chronologies are archived on the JPS website at www.palestine-studies.org. Highlights of the Quarter: Tentative efforts to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and Fatah-Hamas unity efforts falter, Abbas prepares to revive the Palestinian statehood bid at the UN, the PA financial crisis deepens, Palestinian local elections are called, Israel makes major decisions on unauthorized settlement outposts, Republican presidential candidates hit Obama’s handling of Israel and the Iran nuclear issue, Netanyahu demands red lines for Iran and threatens military action, Mitt Romney visits Israel, Egypt elects a Muslim Brotherhood president, the Syrian civil war destabilizes the region. THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI into PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s gov- CONFLICT ernment (see QU in JPS 164), Mofaz assumed (5/7) the role of vice PM in This quarter, Israel and the Pales- charge of Israel’s peace process. This tinian Authority (PA) made their first quarter, within weeks of the new agree- moves toward reviving peace talks since ment’s implementation, there were signs 1/2012, while Fatah and Hamas made that the Israeli and Palestinian sides their first moves to revive their national were exploring behind-the-scenes pos- reconciliation process since 2/2012. Ulti- sibilities for reviving the peace track, mately, neither undertaking showed se- though there was no indication of sub- rious progress. Israel’s more concerted stantive progress. On 6/19, Israeli pres. effort was to solidify control over East Shimon Peres stated that he had met Jerusalem and the West Bank areas it in- with Palestinian pres. Mahmud Abbas tended to keep under final status. Mean- and other Palestinian officials several while, the PA faced a serious financial times recently to discuss peace talks. crisis that gravely undermined its ability The Palestinians declined to comment. to function. To compensate for its dimin- Peres’s unsolicited revelation came ished credibility and legitimacy, the PA just before Mofaz traveled (6/20–31) to took steps to organize new Palestinian Washington for his first official visit as elections, even in absence of coordina- vice PM. In meetings with U.S. secy. of tion with Hamas. The security situation state Hillary Clinton and U.S. security in the West Bank and Gaza remained officials (including National Security Ad- relatively calm overall, notwithstanding viser [NSA] Thomas Donilon), he urged 2 spates of serious violence in Gaza. the U.S. to support efforts to revive peace talks, stating that the greatest Mofaz’s Brief Tenure as Israeli threat to Israel was not Iran (see “Iran” Peace Coordinator below) but a Palestinian demographic As part of the Israeli coalition agree- majority. He presented his own peace ment reached late last quarter that plan first unveiled in 2009 but not en- brought Shaul Mofaz’s Kadima party dorsed by Netanyahu), which called for Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XLII, No. 1 (Autumn 2012), pp. 122–152, ISSN: 0377-919X; electronic ISSN: 1533-8614. © 2012 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Rights and Permissions website, at http://www.ucpressjournals.com/reprintInfo.asp. DOI: jps.2012.XLII.1.122. JPS4201_10_Quarterly Update.indd 122 11/29/12 2:02 PM QUARTERLY UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 123 the creation of an interim Palestinian met (7/16) with Israeli leaders (includ- state with temporary borders on 60% ing PM Netanyahu, Pres. Peres, DM of the West Bank, land swaps making Ehud Barak, FM Avigdor Lieberman) up for the other 40%, and Israel’s per- and Quartet special envoy Tony Blair manent control over most settlement in Jerusalem, and with PA PM Salam areas. U.S. pres. Barack Obama unex- Fayyad in Ramallah. The main purpose pectedly joined Mofaz’s 6/21 meeting of her visit was to discuss Iran, Syria, with Donilon and spoke with Mofaz for and other regional changes (and to a 35 minutes about his calls to resume lesser extent issues relating to the U.S. negotiations. No details were released. presidential campaign), but she also On 6/28, while Mofaz was still in urged both sides to resume peace talks Washington, the PA announced that Ab- soon and avoid all unilateral actions, bas would receive Mofaz in Ramallah on emphasizing that while the interna- 7/1 to discuss relaunching peace talks. tional community was ready to offer Mofaz’s office acknowledged (6/28) that ample support for a return to negotia- discussions about a meeting were under- tions, the hard work must be done by way, but did not confirm that a date had the parties themselves. The next day been set. On 6/30, the PA postponed (7/17), however, Mofaz pulled Kadima the meeting indefinitely, without giv- out of the governing coalition after ing a reason. Insiders said (WP 7/1) that 2 weeks of unsuccessful efforts to draft Abbas had come under strong pressure a plan to integrate ultra- Orthodox from other Palestinians not to meet. Jews and Palestinian citizens of Israel Immediately upon returning to into the military. With Mofaz no lon- Israel, Mofaz clashed with Netanyahu ger involved in the peace process and over (1) the pending expiration on 7/31 renewed concerns that Netanyahu (ordered by Israel’s High Court in 2/2012) might call early elections to solidify of the 2002 Tal Law exempting ultra- his control (see QU in JPS 164), there Orthodox yeshiva students from military was no further talk of reviving peace service and (2) the growing public de- talks during the quarter. bate over a universal draft. (By 6/2012, ultra-Orthodox groups, angry over calls The First Israeli-Palestinian to remove their exemption, had raised Economic Accord since 1994 the issue of service waivers for Palestin- Despite failed efforts on final-status ian citizens of Israel, escalating the public talks, the PA and Israel maintained reg- debate.) Mofaz, who joined the coalition ular coordination, particularly on main- based on Netanyahu’s pledge to move taining security calm in the West Bank. toward a universal draft, strongly op- While such talks often involve eco- posed the PM’s decision (7/2) to disband nomic issues, the announcement (7/31) the committee charged with forming a that PA PM Fayyad and Israeli fin. min. new policy on national military service Yuval Steinitz had signed a new eco- (see QU in JPS 164) and his decision (7/9) nomic agreement came as a surprise. to assign 2 Knesset members represent- Slated to take effect on 1/1/2013, the ing Kadima and Likud to draft the policy accord would regulate taxes and bi- proposal instead. Netanyahu reportedly lateral trade with the aim of reducing hoped (NYT 7/3) that a policy repre- illegal trade and tax evasion and build- senting a consensus by the rival parties ing the PA’s tax-revenue base. The new would prevent coalition defections, but system reportedly (UPI 8/1) would rely warned that if no agreement could be on “advanced technologies for monitor- reached by 7/31, he would instruct the ing and exchanging information on the IDF to draft the policy “according to its transfer of goods rather than calculating needs,” while taking “into consideration tax clearances on reported transfers.” the various publics so as to prevent a rift Though the sides noted that this marked in the nation”—a statement interpreted to their first major economic accord since mean that the IDF would have the right the 1994 Paris Protocol, which sets out to implement a universal draft but urging in detail the economic relationship be- it to maintain the status quo in practice. tween Israel and the PA, they did not Meanwhile, U.S. secy. of state Hill- outline the details or release the text ary Clinton traveled to the region and before the end of the quarter. JPS4201_10_Quarterly Update.indd 123 11/29/12 2:02 PM 124 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES Reviving the Palestinian to support a revived Palestinian state- Statehood Bid hood bid and to increase donor aid to By late 7/2012, PA pres. Abbas, al- the PA. ready frustrated by the lack of move- As of 8/6, sources close to Abbas ment toward peace since the last (see NYT 8/6) said that he planned to fruitless round of exploratory talks in make statehood the focus of his address 1/2012 (see QU in JPS 163) and pessi- to the 9/2012 UNGA session, but that mistic over peace prospects in light of he probably would not ask the UNGA Mofaz’s withdrawal from the coalition, to vote on a resolution until after the began in earnest to lay the ground to U.S. presidential elections. (The first revive Palestinian statehood efforts at likely date to request a vote would be the upcoming UNGA opening session in 11/29/12, the 65th anniversary of the 9/2012—one year after Abbas’s 9/23/11 UN partition vote.) The PA estimated application to the UNSC seeking full that 130 of 193 nations would support a recognition of Palestinian statehood. UNGA resolution requesting observer- That effort had reached a dead end in state status.