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journal The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology fstVolume 22 Number 1 July 2017 www.foundation.org.uk

Editorial Professor Robin Grimes: Putting science into diplomacy

Implementing an industrial strategy for the UK Professor Graeme Reid: What constitutes an effective industrial strategy for the UK? Dame Ann Dowling: A bold vision is needed for our industrial future Andrew Barker: The practical aspects Anthony Lilley: Bridging the old divides

The challenge of raising skills levels Sir Mark Walport: Lifting skills to meet the needs of society and the economy Sir Adrian Smith: The fundamental role of mathematics Dame Judith Hackitt: The view from manufacturing industry

Creating smart cities Lord Mair: Taking a smart approach to 21st century infrastructure Dr Tom Saunders: Engaging the citizen in policy making for cities Cllr Peter Marland: The smart city as a place for communities to thrive

The impact of demographic and medical trends on society Professor Chris Whitty: The challenges facing the UK’s health and social care systems Sir Robert Lechler: Addressing the challenges to health and social care Professor Marcel Levi: Focussing our efforts on patient needs COUNCIL

COUNCIL CHIEF EXECUTIVE Chair Dr Dougal Goodman OBE FREng The Earl of Selborne* GBE FRS Deputy Chairs The Baroness O’Neill of Bengarve* CH CBE FBA FRS FMedSci Dr Mike Lynch* OBE FRS FREng DL

President, The Royal Society Professor Polina Bayvel CBE FRS FREng Sir Venki Ramakrishnan PRS FMedSci Sir John Beddington CMG FRS FRSE HonFREng President, Royal Academy of Engineering Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP FMedSci FLSW Professor Dame Ann Dowling OM DBE FRS FREng The Lord Broers FRS FREng President, British Academy Sir Geoffrey Chipperfield KCB The Lord Stern of Brentford PBA FRS The Lord Haskel* President, The Academy of Medical Sciences Dr Julian Huppert Professor Sir Robert Lechler PMedSci Sir David King ScD FRS HonFREng President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh The Lord Krebs FRS FMedSci Professor Dame Jocelyn Bell Burnell DBE FRS FRSE FRAS FInstP Sir Rob Margetts CBE FREng President, The Learned Society of Wales The Lord Mair CBE FRS FREng Sir Emyr Jones Parry GCMG FInstP PLSW The Rt Hon Sir Brian Neill Chair, Arts & Humanities Research Council The Rt Hon the Baroness Neville-Jones DCMG Sir Drummond Bone FRSE Sir Paul Nurse FRS FMedSci HonFREng Chair, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Chi Onwurah* MP Sir Gordon Duff FRCP FRCPE FMedSci FRSE The Lord Oxburgh KBE FRS HonFREng Chair, Economic and Social Research Council The Lord Rees of Ludlow OM FRS HonFREng HonFMedSci Dr Alan Gillespie CBE Dr Peter Ringrose Chair, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council The Baroness Sharp of Guildford Dr Paul Golby CBE FREng Sir Adrian Smith FRS Chair, Medical Research Council Dr Graham Spittle CBE Donald Brydon* CBE The Lord Trees Chair, Natural Environment Research Council The Baroness Wilcox Sir Anthony Cleaver HonFREng The Rt Hon the Lord Willetts Chair, Science and Technology Facilities Council Sir Peter Williams CBE FREng FRS Sir Michael Sterling FREng The Lord Willis of Knaresborough Chair, EngineeringUK Malcolm Brinded CBE FREng Honorary Treasurer Chair, Innovate UK Tony Quigley* Phil Smith Honorary Secretary Chair, Steering Board, UK Space Agency Patrick McHugh* Professor David Southwood President, The Science Council Sir Keith Burnett CBE FRS *Trustee

The Foundation for Science and Technology 10 Carlton House Terrace FST Journal was redesigned in 2015 by IOP Publishing’s London SW1Y 5AH Design Studio, under the art direction of Andrew Giaquinto. IOP Publishing provides publications through which leading-edge Tel: 020 7321 2220 scientific research is distributed worldwide and is central to the Email: [email protected] Institute of Physics, a not-for-profit society. FST Journal publishes summaries of all the talks given at its Editor Dr Dougal Goodman OBE FREng meetings. Full audio recordings are available on the website Production Editor Simon Napper Layout Simon Clarke Neither the Foundation nor the Editor is responsible for the opinions Sub-editor Judy McBride of the contributors to FST Journal.

journal fstVolume 22 Number 1 July 2017 THE COUNCIL OF THE FOUNDATION Inside front cover

journal The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology fstVolume 22 Number 1 July 2017 www.foundation.org.uk UPDATE

Editorial Professor Robin Grimes: Putting science into diplomacy Government commits to maintain funding for fusion research • Data governance in the 21st century• 2 Implementing an industrial strategy for the UK Professor Graeme Reid: What constitutes an effective industrial strategy for the UK? Dame Ann Dowling: A bold vision is needed for our industrial future Andrew Barker: The practical aspects New threat to ozone recovery EPSRC supports Distributed Ledger Technology projects Anthony Lilley: Bridging the old divides •

Creating smart cities Lord Mair: Taking a smart approach to 21st century infrastructure Dr Tom Saunders: Engaging the citizen in policy making for cities EDITORIAL Cllr Peter Marland: The smart city as a place for communities to thrive The impact of demographic and medical trends on society Putting science into diplomacy Professor Robin Grimes Professor Chris Whitty: The challenges facing the UK’s health and social care systems 3 Sir Robert Lechler: Addressing the challenges to health and social care Professor Marcel Levi: Focussing our efforts on patient needs IMPLEMENTING AN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY FOR THE UK What constitutes an effective industrial strategy for the UK? Professor Graeme Reid 6 A bold vision is needed for our industrial future Dame Ann Dowling 8 The practical aspects Andrew Barker 11 Bridging the old divides Anthony Lilley 13 THE CHALLENGE OF RAISING SKILLS LEVELS Lifting skills to meet the needs of society and the economy Sir Mark Walport 16 The fundamental role of mathematics Sir Adrian Smith 19 The view from manufacturing industry Dame Judith Hackitt 21 CREATING SMART CITIES Taking a smart approach to 21st century infrastructure Lord Mair 25 Engaging the citizen in policy making for cities Dr Tom Saunders 28 The smart city as a place for communities to thrive Cllr Peter Marland 30 THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND MEDICAL TRENDS ON SOCIETY The challenges facing the UK’s health and social care systems Professor Chris Whitty 33 Addressing the challenges to health and social care Sir Robert Lechler 37 Focussing our efforts on patient needs Professor Marcel Levi 39 EVENTS Foundation events held since 20 May 2015 42 INDEX TO VOLUME 21 43

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 1 UPDATE

Government commits to maintain funding for fusion research The Government has signalled its running costs, which is based at the and is due to end in December 2018. As willingness to maintain research Culham Centre for Fusion Energy in part of this contract, the EU currently collaboration with European partners Oxfordshire. provides around £60 million of funding after the UK leaves the EU by committing The JET project is home to the world’s per year, which represents 88% of JET’s to underwrite UK funding for the Joint largest and most advanced nuclear fusion running costs. European Torus (JET) project, the reactor and has led global efforts to devel- The UK’s commitment to continue Business and Energy Secretary Greg op a clean, safe energy source. It supports funding the facility will apply should the Clark has announced. 1,300 jobs in the UK, 600 of which are EU approve extending the UK’s contract Subject to the EU extending the UK’s highly skilled scientists and engineers. to host the facility until 2020. A discus- contract to host the world-class nuclear The UK’s contract to maintain and sion will then take place on the appropri- fusion facility beyond 2018, the UK has run the JET project is managed by the ate funding split. agreed to underwrite its share of JET’s UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) www.gov.uk/beis EPSRC supports Data governance in the 21st century Distributed Ledger The Royal Society and the British Academy in a timely manner if the overall system have conducted a review on the needs of a of governance for data management and Technology projects 21st century data governance system. data use is to maintain public trust. The Engineering and Physical Sciences The amount of data generated from Two responses are required, say the Research Council is supporting a series of the world around us has reached lev- academies: projects that will explore the potentially els that were previously unimaginable. • a set of high-level principles to transformative opportunities offered Meanwhile, uses of data-enabled tech- help visibly shape all forms of data by Distributed Ledger Technology nologies promise benefits, from improv- governance and ensure trustworthiness in energy, healthcare, banking and ing healthcare and treatment discovery, and trust in the management and use of policy making. EPSRC is committing to better managing critical infrastructure data as a whole; more than £3.6 million of investment, such as transport and energy. • the creation of a body to ‘steward the delivered through the Research Councils To realise the benefits of these new evolution of the governance landscape as UK (RCUK) Digital Economy Theme. applications, societies must navigate a whole’. Such a body would be expected The studies will look at new uses for significant choices and dilemmas: they to conduct expert investigation into digital distributed ledgers. These are must consider who reaps the most ben- novel questions and issues, and to databases which are shared between efit from capturing, analysing and acting enable new ways to anticipate the future multiple parties and have the potential on different types of data, and who bears consequences of today’s decisions. to make the systems and services they are the most risk. royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/ applied to more transparent while main- In this fast-moving landscape, gover- projects/data-governance/data- taining high levels of security and privacy. nance challenges need to be addressed management-governance.pdf The best known use of DLT currently is in Bitcoin, a form of digital currency New threat to ozone recovery that uses blockchain technology, a distributed ledger formed of unchangeable Recent and rapid increases in emissions decades of monitoring of the ozone hole and digitally-recorded data stored in of a gas commonly used as a paint stripper over Antarctica by researchers at the Brit- packages called blocks. and in the food industry to decaffeinate ish Antarctic Survey. A Government Office for Science coffee and tea threaten the recovery of The researchers’ projections show that report, published in 2016, said that tech- the ozone hole. A continued rise could continued dichloromethane increases nical innovations such as DLT could delay it by up to 30 years, say researchers. at the average trend seen from 2004 to enable “revolutionary changes” that will Their findings, published in Nature 2014 would delay ozone recovery over “ultimately cause major changes in the Communications, suggest that a previous- Antarctica by 30 years. If dichlorometh- way in which the economy and society ly ignored chemical called dichloromethane concentrations stay at current levels, itself is organised and governed”. ane, not controlled by the Montreal Proto- the delay in recovery would be only five The highly multi-disciplinary col, may be contributing to ozone deple- years. Although the future trajectory of research projects taking place will involve tion and should be included to improve dichloromethane is uncertain, without a wide range of academic and industry future predictions of ozone recovery. any regulations on emissions it is likely partners, and consider the technical, The Montreal Protocol is heralded by concentrations will fall somewhere in economic, legal and social elements of many as one of the most successful inter- between these ranges. the technology. national agreements ever. Introduced www.nature.com/articles/ www.epsrc.ac.uk in 1987, the agreement followed many ncomms15962

2 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk EDITORIAL Putting science into diplomacy Robin Grimes

ost UK Government departments Captain Saris came back to the UK with gifts have a Chief Scientific Adviser and the including a suit of Samurai armour. CSA at the Foreign & Commonwealth If the task is to demonstrate the value of science OfficeM (FCO) is thus part of a network working diplomacy at all levels, what exactly is ‘science under the guidance of the Government Chief diplomacy’? In its 2010 publication New Frontiers Scientific Adviser. Together, this group provides in Science Diplomacy, a joint publication with the advice on all aspects of policy concerning science American Association for the Advancement of and technology. Of course, individual CSAs Science (AAAS), the Royal Society identified Professor Robin Grimes belong to their home Departments and are three aspects: has been Chief Scientific accountable to their respective Permanent Secre- • science in diplomacy; Adviser (CSA) to the Foreign taries. CSAs advise their Ministers, identify and science for diplomacy; and Commonwealth Office • (FCO) since February share good practice in areas related to science, • diplomacy for science. 2013. He is responsible technology, engineering and mathematics for providing advice to (STEM), including the use of scientific advice in Many examples of all three aspects can be read the Foreign Secretary, policy making. Where the FCO CSA role differs in articles of the journal Science & Diplomacy Ministers and officials on science, technology and from others is the use of science diplomacy to which is published quarterly by the AAAS, who innovation. His role is to strengthen international relationships, demon- also publish the journal Science. ensure that FCO work on key strating its value to the Foreign Secretary, Minis- issues undergoes proper ters and FCO colleagues at all levels, whether Science in diplomacy scientific challenge, and to strengthen the scientific working at home or at UK missions overseas. Science can be used in diplomacy to provide and engineering capacity Worldwide, there are only a few other coun- robust evidence to inform policy objectives. within the Foreign Office. tries with science advisers who focus on the sci- Immediately following the accident at the The CSA is supported in ence diplomacy agenda and which are hosted Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station after his work by the UK Science and Innovation Network mostly, or entirely, within a Foreign Service. They the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in attachés based in overseas are Japan, New Zealand, Senegal, Poland, Oman 2011, the UK Government activated the Scientif- posts. Professor Grimes is and the USA. The number of countries embrac- ic Advisory Group in Emergencies (SAGE). also Professor of Materials ing this model looks likely to grow. This is aided SAGE is responsible for ensuring that timely Physics at Imperial College. In his research, he uses by the International Network for Government and coordinated scientific advice is made avail- computer simulation Science Advice (INGSA). able to decision makers in order to support UK techniques to understand In June 2016, for example, I joined the Canadi- cross-government decisions made by COBR (the the behaviour of materials an Science Minister’s Retreat near Ottawa to talk name actually stands for Cabinet Office Briefing for energy applications including nuclear fission and about the UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser network. Room). Through SAGE, the UK Government fusion, fuel cells, batteries This followed the announcement of the posi- was able to use science to understand the progres- and solar cells. He is a Fellow tion of Chief Science Advisor for Canada. The sion of the accident and implications for British of the Royal Academy of person appointed will be responsible for provid- nationals in Japan. It used scientific analysis to Engineering. ing scientific advice to the Prime Minister, the inform our citizens through the British Embassy Minister of Science and members of the Canadian in Tokyo and through the media. Most British Cabinet. More recently, in June 2017, I joined the nationals based in Japan remained in the country Spanish Science Minister in Madrid at a meeting throughout the period as details of the accident to discuss the importance of science diplomacy to unfolded. The UK Government was confident in our bilateral relations. supporting this stance, as it was in explaining The importance of international science many comments made by the Japanese Govern- engagement has long been recognised in this ment, and provided context for the data being country. The Royal Society appointed its first for- issued. The UK response has had a beneficial eign secretary, Philip Zollman, as long ago as effect on UK-Japan relations since the incident 1723. Even further back, the first contact between and led to a detailed discussion of science adviso- the UK and Japan involved the exchange of scien- ry systems1. The Japanese government appointed tific gifts. In 1613 Captain John Saris, represent- its first Chief Scientific Adviser in their Foreign ing King James I arrived in Japan with a telescope, Ministry in 2016. the most cutting-edge technology available. Hav- The strength of our science and innovation ing met various Japanese Tokugawa shoguns relationship with Japan and many other techno- fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 3 EDITORIAL

The Durbar Court House of Lords report2 which recommended, at the former India among other things, that the UK Government Office, now part should identify ways in which science can inform of the Foreign & diplomacy. Scientists also provide longevity, Commonwealth developing and maintaining international rela- Office (FCO) tionships over the long term, often lifetimes, complementing the often shorter-term personal relationships of diplomats and politicians. The relationships that scientists at the Royal Botanic Gardens Kew have with their international coun- terparts are excellent examples of this – it is hard to say when they began to receive samples from their collaborators but the first collector, Francis Masson, was appointed in 1771. UK excellence in research is well-recognised

USER:COLIN / WIKIMEDIA COMMONS / CC BY-SA 4.0 BY-SA CC / COMMONS WIKIMEDIA / USER:COLIN across the globe and as such the UK is in an especially good position to make use of science for logically advanced nations helps to strengthen diplomacy. It enhances our national reputation, our foreign policy influence. That enables us to opens doors to influence trade and investment work in partnership towards solutions to global and can help with power projection when used challenges, from climate change to cyber security. appropriately. Further benefits arise when, for example, other nations choose to use our science Science for diplomacy structures or standards, making the UK a natural Science can be used to build diplomatic relations, trading partner. Or again, when overseas stu- leading to improved political, social and econom- dents who studied in the UK maintain their con- ic links. As the FCO’s CSA, I recently participated nections with the UK. The FCO itself provides in the Second Annual South African Science 700 scholarships per year to overseas students to Forum. The UK is committed to African science study (mostly for a Masters degree) in the UK. and technology development. Active participa- The Chevening Scholars choose from the widest tion in events such as the forum reinforces that set of subjects, which includes science, engineer- commitment, builds mutual understanding and ing and technology. widens networks. Science for diplomacy can be an effective tool Diplomacy for science even in politically difficult circumstances. Col- Scientists sometimes require our help as diplomats. laboration between the Argentinian Embassy in They need us to make connections and influence London and our Embassy in Buenos Aires result- policy in order to create the framework within ed in a successful four-day visit to the UK by which they can collaborate internationally, or gain Argentine Science Minister Lino Barañao. It access to costly facilities that are not available in the included visits to key laboratories, such as the UK. This may require a full blown treaty or just a Francis Crick Institute, the Sanger Institute, memorandum of understanding (MoU). Rothamsted Research, Kew Gardens and the An example of this is the strong, ongoing set of Royal Society. It also saw the first UK-Argentina research collaborations between UK and Indian Science Dialogue with Minister Jo Johnson, host- civil nuclear laboratories, supported by a UK-In- ed at the Science Museum. dia Civil Nuclear Energy agreement. This has At the end of the visit, the two Ministers signed been ongoing since 2010 when I accompanied the a joint Statement of Intention for closer collabo- then Science Minister David, now Lord, Willetts ration in Life Sciences, Agri-technology, to Bangalore to sign a MoU. These projects have Advanced Materials & Nanotechnology, Infor- resulted in more than 45 joint peer-reviewed mation & Communications Technology, Oceans papers in scientific journals as well as around 30 Research and Palaeontology. Looking forward, it conference presentations, with the number grow- is also possible to consider regional science and ing year by year. innovation partnerships such as between the UK This collaboration is based on mutual benefit. and Latam countries. For example, it gives the UK scientists access to The scientific community often works beyond large-scale Indian experimental infrastructure national boundaries so is well placed to support which is not available in the UK. On the Indian forms of diplomacy that do not depend on tradi- side, it provides access to expertise in aspects of tional alliances. This was recognised in a 2014 engineering and materials. A third set of projects

4 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk EDITORIAL is underway, and in Mumbai in October 2016 we Science diplomacy is not, however, the exclusive started to identify a fourth set of six projects at the domain of diplomats. Universities and their key annual review meeting. The UK and India fund their own parts of the project, with around £1 mil- science networks play a crucial role. lion per year funding on the UK side coming from the Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). prises. The mobility of students and researchers is essential to this pursuit. The Science and Innovation Network In 2001, UK Government set up the Science and Science as a diplomatic tool Innovation Network (SIN)3, with the aim of link- If the UK is to maintain its international profile, ing science more directly to its foreign policy pri- the UK Government must prioritise science so orities. SIN primarily contributes to diplomacy that other countries continue to see the UK as the for science by providing a first point of contact place to come. I am convinced the FCO is well and gateway to science and innovation (S&I) placed to help, especially through the SIN and opportunities, for UK and host country research Newton Officers, and we are fortunate that our institutions, universities and industry. It also Ministers and Ambassadors embrace the idea that develops policy insight through a two-way flow of ‘science is a tool in their diplomatic tool box’6. ideas between the UK and partner countries, as All of these beneficiaries – Ministers, diplo- well as establishing new international partner- mats, universities and industry – rely upon a ded- ships, often acting as a catalyst for new projects. icated body of around 30,000 scientists and engi- SIN also plays a science in diplomacy role by neers working for UK government in the Civil contributing to a joined-up UK approach, using Service and wider public sector. Their work covers SIN experts at the heart of the UK’s overseas mis- everything from food safety to space exploration, sions, working closely with UK partner organisa- from animal welfare to nuclear fusion. They per- tions to promote coherent UK engagement. It is meate throughout the Civil Service, where they are taking an increasingly strategic approach to called upon to offer remedies to a bewildering engagement, focussing on specific themes (e.g. variety of ailments. Together, they are the Govern- antimicrobial resistance and quantum technolo- ment Science and Engineering Profession, one of gies) to increase its impact and ensuring a balance five Civil Service analytical professions7. between short-term ‘quick wins’ and longer term As our world becomes ever more technologi- strategic and diplomatic gains. cally challenging, we need these people to be SIN has around 90 people working in more exceptionally well-informed and internationally than 30 countries and territories around the connected through the efforts of our overseas world, building partnerships and collaborations. mission. The UK will only remain at the heart of Another important mechanism for UK science international science, for the benefit of our soci- diplomacy is the Newton Fund programme4,5. ety, while our diplomats continue to exercise good This is building science and innovation partner- judgment in the field of science diplomacy. ☐ ships with 16 partner countries, supporting their economic development and social welfare. It also 1. Grimes RW, Chamberlain Y & Oku A (2014) develops research and innovation capacity for ‘The UK response to Fukushima and Anglo- long-term sustainable growth. Japanese relations’, Science & Diplomacy, 3. The UK is investing £735 million from 2014 to 2. www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201314/ 2021, with partner countries providing matched ldselect/ldsoftpower/150/15008.htm#a15 resources within the Fund. It forms part of the 3. www.gov.uk/government/world/organisations/ UK’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) uk-science-and-innovation-network commitment, is managed by the Department for 4. www.newtonfund.ac.uk Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), 5. Grimes RW and McNulty C (2016) ‘The Newton and delivered through 15 UK Partners. The New- Fund: Science and Innovation for Development and ton Fund has appointed over 30 Officers in British Diplomacy’, Science & Diplomacy, 5. overseas missions help to deliver the programme. 6. Grimes R W and Hennessey E (2015) ‘Why Science diplomacy is not, however, the exclu- science is in the diplomatic tool kit’. Science in sive domain of diplomats. Universities and their Parliament, 72, 10. key science networks play a crucial role in improv- 7. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ ing cross-cultural understanding and collabora- system/uploads/attachment_data/ tion. Research and the generation of new knowl- file/426307/15-2-chief-scientific-advisers-and- edge to drive innovation are international enter- officials-introduction.pdf fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 5 INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY Early in 2017, the Government published a Green Paper for consultation, outlining its proposed industrial strategy. A meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 10 May 2017 considered the different elements of the strategy and its overall aims.

What constitutes an effective industrial strategy for the UK? Graeme Reid

uccessive Governments have published numerous industrial strategies since the SUMMARY middle of the 20th century. According to Sthe Prime Minister, this one is distinct because it • The political context in which this strategy was is a key part of the preparation for Brexit. developed was particularly turbulent. The authors of this Strategy1 were operating in • It is not clear who within Government will have an unusually turbulent context. It must have been overall responsibility for delivering the strategy. Professor Graeme Reid difficult to reach a settled position on the text • There needs to be more clarity on how the was Specialist Adviser to with so much change taking place during the different pillars will work together to form a the House of Lords Select drafting process. Writing a chapter on regions coherent whole. Committee on Science and with Mayoral elections taking place at the same • An effective industrial strategy will inevitably Technology during their include some of the most sensitive areas of the inquiry into the Industrial time must have been tricky – to say nothing of Strategy and during earlier writing a strategy for the whole of the UK while Brexit negotiations. work on Brexit. Professor the First Minister of Scotland was calling for Reid has spent much of another independence referendum. his career at the interface between science and The authors themselves were operating in new and tactical initiatives. It is rather light on strategic government. He is Chair of organisations. The Department for Business, objectives and even lighter on coherence. Science and Research Policy Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the It really is not obvious who is responsible for at UCL. He is also Chairman Department of International Trade had just been the overall delivery of the Strategy, who is of the Campaign for Science and Engineering, a Trustee created. Given the way that the Prime Minister accountable to that person and to whom that per- of the Association of presented the Strategy, it seems likely that the son is accountable. When the House of Lords Medical Research Charities Department for Exiting the EU and No10 had Committee took evidence from Industry Minis- and Strategic Advisor to quite a lot of say on its content. Any assessment of ter Nick Hurd MP, he said that responsibility for the National Centre for Universities and Business. the strategy should be set against that background. delivery lies with the Prime Minister. While that From people I have spoken to, there has been is true in a technical sense, the Prime Minister nothing but a warm welcome for the concept of an cannot be expected to take a grip of operational Industrial Strategy which revisits the relationship delivery. So it remains unclear who is actually between Government, industry and universities responsible for delivering the programme that in a changing and stressful world. spans several Government Departments and Devolved Administrations, what goals they will Science and innovation be measured against and what process will be This strategy includes prominent coverage of sci- used to hold them to account. While it was ence and innovation, built on the foundations of launched as a consultation document, it would the large increase in funding that was announced be good to hear plans for responsibility and in the last Autumn Statement. However, the list accountability in the next version. of‘ten pillars’ looks remarkably like the lists appearing in previous strategies (see Table 1). The Ten Pillars One journalist called it ‘the same old wish list’. The Ten Pillars do connect together in some plac- The House of Lords Science and Technology es, but not consistently or coherently. Take the Committee observed2 that the document resembles relationship between science, trade and regional a portfolio of tactics rather than a coherent strategy. development. There are references to science in It includes a rich collection of tactical objectives the regions pillar, but there is no reference to it in

6 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY

Table 1: The Ten The Ten Pillars of the Industrial Strategy Pillars of the Investing in science and innovation Trade and investment Industrial Strategy. Developing skills Energy and clean growth Upgrading infrastructure Cultivating sectors Starting and growing business Growth across the country Public procurement Institutions, sectors and places the trade chapter. Surely, if we want to address between business and Government lies in the disparities in regional prosperity then some domain of taxation and regulation. Here, the UK interplay between the pillars will be required to might attempt to seize competitive advantage as make it happen? The challenges lie not so much we develop the economy outside of the European in what goes on inside the individual pillars but in Union. Yet there is no chapter on Tax and Regu- making them work together harmoniously. That lation, just a fleeting mention. aspect of the Strategy seems un-developed. This is, of course, a sensitive area. In the There is a chapter on sectors which identifies a exchange of correspondence between the Prime number of important sectors and names prominent Minister and the EU over the terms of Brexit individuals who have agreed to take leadership roles negotiation, there was a warning from the EU in ensuring the contribution of those sectors to the that the UK shouldn’t attempt to derive advantage overall Strategy. That is to be applauded. by manipulating tax and regulation and yet this is There is then a reference to (undefined) clearly an area of potential advantage that the UK emerging sectors and how they might participate can explore. in the future. The underlying assumption, how- It must be difficult to write a document as part ever, is that the economy can be categorised by of our preparations for Brexit that addresses some industry sectors. Yet this is a world where the of the most sensitive areas for negotiation. Tax, breakdown between conventional industry sec- regulation, immigration, terms of trade and the tors can be seen frequently, together with the relationship between government, business and emergence of businesses that are really quite dif- universities are all core elements of an effective ficult to categorise in a sector. Now if this is industrial strategy and all core elements of the already happening in front of our eyes, what Brexit negotiations due to begin shortly after the about developments that are over the horizon? Green Paper was published – no wonder there are What kind of businesses might emerge over the gaps in the document. time period this strategy is considering? There is The UK faces persistent challenges in address- not enough recognition given to this kind of ing its relatively low productivity, the unaccept- future during the period covered by the strategy. able regional distribution of prosperity and har- While the Green Paper is presented as a strat- vesting the benefits of its strong science base. egy for the UK as a whole, several of the pillars This Strategy is a sensible and timely approach describe policy areas that are devolved to each of to these challenges, each one of which has frustrat- the four countries of the UK. Take higher educa- ed one Government after another. Whether or not tion policy: there is an aspiration to initiate dis- we support Brexit, it may well provide a stimulus cussions between the four governments. Having for tackling these issues effectively instead of just spoken to people in the Scottish and Welsh commissioning even more policy reviews and administrations, I found that neither was going through the same debates one more time. ☐ involved in the preparation of this Strategy or feels committed to the single overarching picture 1. Building our Industrial Strategy: green paper set out in the document. www.gov.uk/government/consultations/building- Given the diverse political dispositions of the our-industrial-strategy different governments in the UK, there is an evi- 2. House of Lords Select Committee on Science This Strategy is a dent gap in the thinking on how to handle the and Technology: Letter to the Secretary of State for sensible and timely complexities of devolved politics, a complexity Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy approach to the which is increasing with the election of city may- www.parliament.uk/documents/lords- challenges that have ors who will have devolved powers related direct- committees/science-technology/Industrial- frustrated one ly to some of the pillars in the Strategy. strategy/2017-05-02-Industrial-strategy-ltr-to- Government after One of the most important relationships BEIS-Secretary-of-state.pdf another. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 7 INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY A bold vision is needed for our industrial future Ann Dowling

he Royal Academy of Engineering has long advocated a modern industrial SUMMARY strategy to create the conditions for our Tindustries and businesses to thrive. It welcomed • The industrial strategy should offer an the establishment of a Department for Business, ambitious, bold and global vision of the UK’s Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the economic future. Green Paper that followed. • Employment in future will need people with a broad range of technical, digital and Professor Dame Ann In order to produce a response that represent- Dowling OM DBE FRS FREng ed the whole of the engineering profession, it communication skills. is President of the Royal joined forces with 38 professional organisations • The Government should set a target of 3% of GDP Academy of Engineering. from across our community. Together, we repre- for total public/private annual R&D investment. She is a non-executive director of BP plc and is a sent some 450,000 engineers. The wide-ranging • Business awareness of support schemes non-executive member of response included comments on all 10 pillars of remains low and this must be addressed. the board of the Department the strategy. • The future is digital. Business must embrace of Business, Energy and digital technologies. Industrial Strategy (BEIS). Previously she was a non- Vision executive member of the An essential component of any strategy is a clear- board of the Department of ly-defined vision of what constitutes a successful tion, it can generate coherent and aligned messag- Business, Innovation and outcome. An industrial strategy must set an ing across the various parts of Government and Skills (BIS) and chaired the Main Panel B: Physical ambitious, bold, global vision for the UK as an among non-governmental UK stakeholders. Sciences, Engineering outward-looking leading trading nation – a It is vital for such a plan to succeed that there is and Mathematics in the favoured destination for inward investment and greater awareness of the support that is on offer, 2014 Research Excellence for international talent. In doing so, it should especially to SMEs. Framework. In 2015, she chaired a review for BIS on draw on the UK’s credentials as a leader in There is also much to be done to change public business-university research research and innovation, in engineering, in man- perceptions and advance a more positive image of collaborations. ufacturing and so many other things. industry and of modern engineering. Engineer- There must also be a commitment to persevere ing employers recognise this and are ready to play with the strategy, providing the long-term vision their part. against which industry and other stakeholders can During our consultations, we were repeatedly plan and align activity. Stability and continuity are told that people must be at the core of any successful absolutely crucial to give businesses the confi- industrial strategy. Supporting people in gaining dence to invest. That means cross-party support the right education and skills for the future has to be needs to be secured for its key elements so that they central to the Government’s plans. It is heartening endure beyond the five-year life of any parliament. that the green paper includes highlights the chal- While an effective policy framework is neces- lenge of developing skills of the workforce. sary, it is not sufficient. Government needs to A survey we undertook with the engineering develop a genuine partnership with industry. This community suggests that constraints on time and should not be a Government strategy for industry, finance are the main obstacles to companies it has to be an industrial strategy with industry – investing in additional training for their staff. and wider stakeholder engagement is critical, too. Solutions range from offering learning which fits The development of such a strategy provides a in with employees’ schedules, to professional bod- powerful opportunity to promote UK industry and ies encouraging members to invest in their own academia assertively on the global stage. In addi- development. Of course, investment in education and skills Survey findings suggest that constraints on time begins long before individuals arrive in the workplace. The industrial strategy does not give enough and finance are the main obstacles to companies weight to the work that must be done in schools. A investing in additional training for their staff. coherent, integrated plan is required which starts at

8 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk Support innovation

INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY

Figure 1. How a 3% target for R&D 4.5 Government spend on R&D Industry spend on R&D would compare 0.08 Other spend on R&D with international 4 UK target 3% competitors.

3.5 0.23

3 0.16

P 0.47 D 3.15 0.33 G 2.5 f o

g 0.27 a

t 0.22 n

e 2 c

r 2.72 e

P 1.9 1.59 0.4 1.5 1.79 1.25 0.31 1.47

1 0.73 0.82

0.5 1 0.84 0.83 0.77 0.67 0.54 0.56 0.66 0.58 0 South Finland Germany France USA Japan Canada OECD UK Korea average

Reference: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators

primary level and inspires an interest in science, study mathematics or a physical science at age 16. technology and engineering. From a cohort of over half a million students in any It is so important to tackle teacher shortages in year, only 30,000 (5%) will continue to study maths the STEM subjects, yet it is unlikely that even the and physics at A-level. best teachers will have the experience of working The engineering community would like to see a in business or engineering. There is a clear need to broader post-16 curriculum, including a combina- provide a real life context to the science and maths tion of sciences, mathematics and digital skills taught in the schools, in order to make these sub- alongside humanities and arts subjects. Employ- jects interesting and inspiring. Employers recog- ment in the future will need broadly-qualified peo- nise this and are increasingly interacting with ple with the technical and digital knowledge as well schools. However, these interactions are currently as strong communication skills. haphazard and uncoordinated which means there is limited opportunity to transfer best practice. It Innovation is imperative to simplify that interface between The industrial strategy could provide the oppor- businesses and schools. tunity to upgrade the role of research, science, engineering and innovation in the UK’s economy. Further education While not sufficient to achieve innovation, Half of the skills shortages in engineering occur money is necessary. The UK’s investment in R&D at higher apprenticeship and technician level. (public and private) is significantly lower than the Further Education needs stable, long-term invest- OECD average. The additional £4.7 billion for ment and the funding systems must enable R&D announced in the Autumn Statement is very colleges to provide high-cost subjects such as welcome, but the UK needs to be more ambitious. engineering. Therefore, one of our main recommendations is Our consultation uncovered serious concern that Government should set a target of 3% of GDP about the shortage of qualified tutors and lecturers combined public/private R&D investment and in FE. The funding set aside for institutes of tech- work with the private sector to formulate a road- nology should be focussed on people who will teach map to achieve that. Most innovation is undertak- rather than on bricks and mortar. Improving sala- en in the private sector, but Government has a piv- ries and providing support for technical tutors should be the priorities. The funding set aside for institutes of technology The current A-level route to Higher Education forces early decisions which narrow career oppor- should be focussed on people who will teach tunities. The majority of young people will cease to rather than on bricks and mortar. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 9 INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY

ment should have a greater willingness to accept the risk of failure in its support for innovation.

Supporting business The industrial strategy aims to support industry and grow businesses. One of the greatest challenges is to make companies aware of the support available to them. However, with hundreds of publicly-funded schemes in existence to support businesses, there is a clear need for simplification. Business awareness of some key initiatives is very low. For example, about half of respondents to the survey were unaware of growth hubs or Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs). Over 80% were unaware of the small business research initiative (SBRI). SMEs need much clearer – and simpler – signposting to sources of advice and support, using existing contact points such as banks, HMRC and Companies House. Business owners who have successfully scaled- up, or indeed who have founded companies with global aspirations, should be promoted as role

TRANSPORT SYSTEMS CATAPULT SYSTEMS TRANSPORT models and their stories used as case studies to The LUTZ Pathfinder driverless pod is being trialled in Milton Keynes inspire others. Support for SMEs should build on existing suc- otal role to play in stimulating this activity. Sup- cessful initiatives and institutions. Local institu- portive policy and catalytic public funding can tions such as LEPs, Catapults and universities need encourage the private sector to invest. The engi- to sustain consistent national levels of excellence neering community recommends that any new sec- and their services must be promoted more widely to tor deals should require a shared commitment by those that could benefit. businesses to boost investment in R&D (or in inno- Another important area that needs support is vation and manufacturing) alongside Government infrastructure. Poor infrastructure was repeatedly co-investment. raised as a constraint on economic growth. Local transport infrastructure was singled out as a major Incentivising investment barrier to growth by more than 80% of those that Respondents to the survey identified academia/ responded. A clear, long-term strategy for infra- industry interaction as an effective way to incen- structure is necessary to give industry confidence to tivise investment in R&D (which brings benefits invest in the future. Regional plans that understand to both parties). Yet, if technical innovations are local needs must be integrated with national strate- to succeed, they must be tested in real world envi- gies through the National Infrastructure Committee. ronments. We believe that the UK should prioritise the provision of high quality opportunities for Digital technologies companies to test and demonstrate at scale. Exist- The future is digital. Modern manufacturing and ing UK infrastructure could be utilised for this. industry rely on the transfer of data over fast, This is already happening informally. The streets secure networks. Digital analytics are opening up of Milton Keynes are being used to test autonomous huge possibilities to improve performance and vehicles, while predictive policing approaches are create whole new markets. Every business is now being trialled in Kent. In the future, drones could be a digital business with a global potential. The UK tested at disused airfields and hospitals could trial is strongly placed to develop a leading digital- innovative approaches to data-driven services. Run- ly-driven and data-enabled economy. Continued ning such schemes across the country could extend investment in the UK’s digital infrastructure and the geographical reach of innovation activities enhancing digital skills at all levels will be key beyond the current centres of excellence. enablers of the industrial strategy. The ability of Innovation is inherently risky with an uncertain the UK workforce to be confident and competent outcome, particularly when it involves disruptive at a high level in digital skills will be pivotal to technologies with high potential. The UK is very securing our competitiveness across a whole cautious when it comes to innovation but Govern- range of sectors and technologies. ☐

10 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY Implementing an industrial strategy – the practical aspects Andrew Barker

tional travel rewards programme (part of IAG), is SUMMARY a purely digital business – it has no assets other than algorithms and people. It makes huge invest- • Supporting sectors where the UK already has a ments in data analytics and artificial intelligence. leading position will help to further advance It is based exclusively in the UK because of this business involvement. country’s prowess within Europe for digital tech- • Aviation is a key enabler of trade in the modern nology. The UK is the best place to locate this type world. of business. Andrew Barker is Head of • Engagement between Government and industry Investor Relations at the is necessary to maximise benefits to both. Trade and investment International Airlines Group. The Government needs to consider carefully how IAG is the holding company • Pillar 6 is concerned with encouraging trade and for four airlines – British to integrate its fiscal policy across different inward investment. It is an obvious point, but air- Airways, Iberia, Air Lingus sectors. lines do connect the UK to the rest of the world, and Vueling. His early career • Leveraging the huge sums of money in the allowing people to export their services and was as an equity analyst in the City specialising in the pension funds could help to galvanise research bringing other people here. and innovation. airline sector. He was Head In terms of aviation – both in terms of engi- of Planning for EasyJet before neering and delivery – the UK is unquestionably joining IAG. world-leading already. Look at the major cities want to consider some of the practical ways in around the world and the number of people going which a big business like International Air- through their airports in 2015 (see Figure 1, page lines Group (IAG) could make use of an 12). Over 147 million people went through Lon- Iindustrial strategy, grow employment in the UK don’s airports (i.e. Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, and connect the UK better to the rest of the world. Luton and London City). The next biggest Pillar 2 of the strategy set out in the Green throughput was New York, then Tokyo, Hong Paper is concerned with the development of skills. Kong Shenzhen, Beijing, Atlanta, Paris, Chicago Some 8,000 people in our workforce have the for- and Shanghai. Even with relatively low growth in mal designation of ‘engineer’. They are not just the future (it may be significantly higher if the working on and maintaining our aircraft – industrial strategy is successful) London will still although many are employed in these areas – but be in the top three in 30 years’ time. others work with the manufacturers of engines The airline industry has always been fragile. and airframes to develop new aircraft. We are, BA, for example, has only paid a dividend three after all, one of the main potential buyers of planes times in the past 15 years. Yet many in Govern- in the future. ment seem to think the sector makes a lot of IAG has two major UK bases in Heathrow and money and does not need any help – hopefully this Gatwick, although in the last 20 years there have industrial strategy will provide a platform where also been investment in greenfield sites for engi- we can start to transform those perceptions. neering, in Glasgow and in South Wales. So, the group has a core skills base in aeronautical engi- Engagement neering where the UK has a long-term leading posi- There need to be foundations under these pillars tion. Any support in this area through an industri- to help us really make use of the strategy. The first al strategy would be very welcome and could influ- could be termed ‘quality engagement’. Take the ence decisions at board level. IAG has inherited a debate about the third runway at Heathrow. IAG number of bases from operating companies has had no engagement with Government on this acquired over the last five years. In the next three issue, despite the fact that we have £10 billion of years, the business will need to decide whether to assets based at this airport. Over the next 25 years centralise specific functions in certain countries. we, and other airlines at this airport, will have to It is not just about hardware engineers; soft- spend £40 billion in aircraft equivalents to stay in ware engineers are vital too. Avios, the interna- business there. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 11 INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY

Figure 1. Air traffic through the world’s Pillar 8: cultivating world-leading sectors major cities Aviation mega cities – million passengers in 2015

150 147

120 108 99 96 96 92 91 90 75 81

0 LON NYC TYO HKSZ PEK ATL PAR CHI SHA LA

The current proposal is for the new Heathrow more open-minded debate with the Treasury on runway to cross the M25 (the busiest motorway in this and other issues. Europe) at its busiest point next to the junction with the M4 (which is the busiest motorway junc- Patient capital tion in Europe). The engineering solution has not International, long-term, patient, capital provid- been designed yet, but it will probably cost in ers such as sovereign wealth funds, the super excess of £3 billion to build that bridge. funds in Australia and indeed some American Yet from the airlines’ point of view, the runway venture capitalists have recognised a gap in UK does not need to be 3,500 metres as proposed. If it provision – and are stepping in to fill it. The gap is were 2,800 metres, then perhaps 5% of the aircraft, that the UK has a great science base, but no ade- on the hottest day of the year, flying to the furthest quate mechanism for providing scale-up capital to destinations in the world, might have to use one of exploit that expertise. the other two runways. At that length, the third There is no UK sovereign wealth fund. There runway would not need to cross the M25, poten- are indeed huge investment funds, though, but tially saving £3 billion. they are not sovereign. The total assets in UK If the industrial strategy just allowed officials to defined-benefit pension schemes, according to engage with key stakeholders in a more construc- the Purple Book (which is the annual digest of tive way, that would be an enormous advance. these schemes) amount to £1.34 trillion. Quantitative easing has pumped money into Fiscal policy the economy and created an enormous black hole Infrastructure development at Heathrow is going in pension liabilities which companies have had to to be entirely funded by the private sector. In fill. They have done so partly by selling UK equi- addition, airlines have to collect air passenger ties. But money has then been re-invested in for- duty for the Treasury – this is a business tax bring- eign equities. ing in more than £3 billion a year. Yet how effi- So, 5,700 pension funds have been diversifying cient is this instrument? their portfolios according to good portfolio theo- Figure 2 shows the number of Japanese tourists ry, but this has resulted in a huge drain of corpo- going to the UK and those going to Spain. In rate capital from the UK to other parts of the Spain, numbers fell by 13% between 2000 and world, instead of supporting UK businesses. UK 2015. The Spanish government does not tax allocation of equities in pension funds has gone Japanese visitors. A family of four visiting the from 29% in 2006 to just 6.7% now. That matters UK from Japan has to pay £300 for the privilege – 10.9 million people are in these schemes and – and the numbers are down by 60% over that 60% of those are in UK companies with more than period. The UK stands out as being a country that 10,000 people. has significantly lost out. If the Government were to underwrite the An average tourist spends £1,200 while here – industry’s future liability (which could be as much think of the VAT collected compared to the Air as £450 billion) and pension trustees were to pool Passenger Duty. Again, we would like to have a their funds in a wider, independently managed

12 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY

Figure 2. Intelligent Japanese tourist arrivals fiscal policy

1,400,000 Spain (no tax) Spain down 13% 1,050,000

700,000 UK (tax) UK - family of 4 pays £300 to come here - 350,000 down 60%

0 2000 2015 fund, this would unquestionably be one of the fund. If a fraction of it were to be placed into largest sovereign wealth funds in the world. patient capital funding of science research, inno- The Government could underpin an industri- vation and translation, that could be a hugely al strategy with an investment strategy for this game-changing move. ☐ Bridging the old divides Anthony Lilley

human behaviour, usually in relation to media SUMMARY technology. I try to set up the conditions – financial, organisational, technological – for really • Outdated science versus arts stereotypes are creative people to create moments of enjoyment unhelpful in the 21st century. or learning or challenge. I do this in the commer- • The creative industries employ large numbers of cial world and it makes money! people and are a growth sector. So in policy terms, I work in the creative indus- • Innovation in this sector has generated large tries. The dictionary definition is: “The indus- Anthony Lilley is Chief amounts of income for the UK. tries have their origin in individual creativity, skill Executive and Chief Creative • Investment in the creative industries should not and talent and they have a potential for wealth Officer at Magic Lantern. He be dismissed as mere subsidy. is a media and arts producer, and job creation through the generation and strategist and consultant. He • Timescales in the Industrial Strategy do not exploitation of intellectual property.” It is not an has BAFTA, RTS and Peabody reflect the realities of the creative industries. exclusive definition, so actually it may be more awards to his name. His interesting and helpful to describe the products, credits include FourDocs for C4, Dr Who and Top Gear, as services, experiences and content that are created. well as BBC and web, mobile, ome 20 years ago, I founded what would be Within the creative industries are areas includ- TV, games and strategy called today a digital media agency ing advertising, architecture, art and antiques, projects. From 2007-15, (although the term did not exist at the crafts, design, fashion, film and video, interactive Anthony chaired Lighthouse, Brighton’s digital culture Stime). It aimed to be a fusion of content and dig- leisure software, music, performing arts, publish- agency. He is a member of ital technology. For most of that 20 year period I ing, TV and radio. These are the ‘sectors’. the Arts and Humanities faced questions about what I actually was: a geek, The UK is pretty good at these – Gross Value Research Council. or a ‘luvvy’. People like stereotypes in this field. I Added from the creative industries was £84.1 bil- see myself as in some sense sitting in between the lion in 2014 and it accounted for 5.2% of the UK two poles, trying to understand culture and economy. It is strange how difficult it is to get the fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 13 INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY

Policy makers seem Treasury and others to take these industries seri- dreds of millions of pounds to come from the to disbelieve their ously. For four years running, creative industries musical Matilda also began with the RSC. own numbers about have grown as a proportion of UK GVA. Creative Innovation in the public cultural sector is the creative sector. I industries GVA increased by 8.9% from 2013 to regarded as the result of subsidy, instead of being know of no other 2014. There are 1.8 million people employed – thought of as investment. Now, that thinking is sector where official 30% are in London but there are 50 clusters around really behind the curve. figures are given such the country and exports are worth £18 billion. There is similar confusion about some of the scant regard. It has been argued that the net value to the UK beneficial taxation schemes and regulatory inter- economy of the Harry Potter brand is as large as ventions that have happened in the sector. The any single UK-developed pharmaceutical drug 2003 Communications Act brought about a signi over the same period. ficant shift of rights ownership from UK broad- I spent quite a lot of time in the creative world casters to UK production companies. That has building companies, while public policy roles have created a billion pound a year export industry. been partly sector-representational, partly regula- There is a paradoxical willingness to dismiss the tory – I was at Ofcom as a regulator and have just social and cultural power of the creative industries finished at the Gambling Commission where we in this country whilst extolling their soft power ran the National Lottery. On the academic side, I abroad. Neither do we appreciate the sector’s con- have had visiting Chairs in Bournemouth and tribution to cultural cohesion and diversity. Oxford and now at Ulster: these all focus on the intersection between digital technology, culture, A matter of facts creativity and public policy. Today, I am a member Policy makers seem to disbelieve their own num- of the Council of the AHRC. But most of the time, bers about my sector. The figures for GVA come I have a ‘real job’ in the creative industries. from the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS), but they are constantly challenged The Industrial Strategy by policy makers themselves. So, improve the Looking at the proposals in the Green Paper, I accuracy of the numbers, or explain why they are welcome the new funding for research. However, not credible. I know of no other sector where offi- I am very disappointed at some of the thinking cial figures are given such scant regard. about my sector, which typifies the split between Another difficulty with the strategy is that the manufacturing versus services that runs through timescales do not make sense for my industry. the document. The timescales used to measure success are too The landscape that the strategy envisages is not short – ridiculously so. It will take me two or three something I recognise from the creative digital years to put on a show in the West End. It will take viewpoint, it has a very ‘heavy industrial’ feel. The four or five years to put a film on a screen. Yet this mindset, which colleagues refer to as ‘proper job Industrial Strategy will be done and dusted in that syndrome’, has its roots in a nonsensical cultural time, so there is a real mismatch. divide between arts and sciences which people in my industry just do not understand. Priorities One very clear expression of that is the defini- Skills are vital in my industry too. Creative, com- tion of R&D. Why? Because it excludes every- municative individuals are needed here just as thing we do – everything that happens in arts and much in STEM subjects. Does anybody really humanities and much of the social sciences (and believe in such exclusive silos? There are interest- therefore pretty much all of the creative indus- ing policy discussions about how to think about tries) does not fit within the definition of R&D. robotics in the context of creative industries. I have recently finished a piece of consultancy work Subsidy or investment with Google on that topic. They are interested in The muddled thinking about the sector is partic- those sorts of questions. Those skills are in new, ularly surprising and deeply disappointing. There emerging areas. is an unsophisticated understanding of the rela- The research landscape needs to reflect the tionship between cultural subsidy and the creative needs and opportunities our industries represent. industries. The creative industries policy of this I think the new Strategy Fund is a great opportu- country is not ‘oh they want another theatre in nity to construct effective models of R&D between Liverpool’, that is really not what this is about. industry and the research base. I am hopeful of In fact, all of the many hundreds of millions, discovering powerful synergies with bodies like possibly billions, of pounds that have come from Innovate UK to push this forward. the musical Les Miserables began with the subsi- It is also important to recognise the value of dised Royal Shakespeare Company. The hun- public investment in the sector. The BBC, the

14 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY

Arts Council and others should be acknowledged In the 21st century, conventional divides as foundations for innovation. The University of between sectors and skills will start to disappear Ulster is about to launch a Creative Industries and that will necessitate an understanding of what Research and Impact Laboratory. This will exam- the humanities can bring to this computerised ine the creative industries over a decade-long machine age. I like to think of myself as an anti-dis- trajectory. Northern Ireland has already ciplinarian – somebody who thinks across sectors, seen an enormous influx of creative industries not between sectors, but in spite of sectors. I am investment. Game of Thrones is made in Belfast interested in the problems, the solutions and what – the craft skills, the sets, the make-up, the happens to society and culture as a result. costumes are all done there. There could be The Industrial Strategy is silent on that way of a very long-lasting benefit. In an economy thinking – I would not expect it to be otherwise, the size of the Northern Irish economy, it but I hope views that come from such perspectives represents an enormous net incoming benefit. will be listened to. ☐ The debate here should be more effective regional versity students as possible direct experience of Issues covered investment in innovation, but competi- industry would also be helpful. The apparent focus in the debate tion between regional bodies needs to be of the strategy on manufacturing sectors needed to after the main Tavoided. National schemes of support, with be amended to recognise that 80% of the UK econ- speeches national quality assurance but local implementa- omy was now based on services. Traditional engi- included regional tion, should be considered. neering skills need to be combined with an under- investment, the Environmental concerns are not well covered standing of behaviour. Creative subjects at school environment in the Strategy, although one pillar focusses on develop resilience and self-reliance, which are vital and the dangers energy and clean growth. During the Brexit nego- to the modern economy. In a 50-year career, the of a sectoral tiations, the Government will have important ability to change pension arrangements mid-ca- approach. decisions to take on whether to retain all the cur- reer so that a portion of the total pot could be used rent EU environmental regulation. The impact of to retrain ought to be considered. these on economic growth needs further reflec- The building sector is not renowned for inno- tion. The Brexit negotiations will also need to look vation and it is beset with low productivity. again at the current state aid regulations. Advanced manufacturing techniques and digital A Government approach based on giving technologies could transform the construction business freedom to innovate, without increased sector. Leading companies need encouragement regulation, has much to commend it but is not to invest in this innovation. considered in the strategy. Singapore’s system, for The UK has to remain competitive in a global example, has less direct intervention by Ministers. trading economy. There would be more chance of Germany’s success may be due to its commit- success with less bureaucracy. ☐ ments to continuity and stability. The US system of support for innovation through national laboratories, where priorities are not dictated by Min- FURTHER INFORMATION isters, also has much to commend it. If the research sector has the ability to pick research Building our Industrial Strategy: green paper winners, then procurement certainly has a key www.gov.uk/government/consultations/building-our-industrial-strategy role in pulling through the resulting innovation. The development of Amazon and Uber, with House of Lords Science Select Committee Industrial Strategy Inquiry their access to patient capital and breaking www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/ through traditional sectors, should make Gov- science-and-technology-committee/inquiries/parliament-2015/science-and- ernment cautious of relying on a sectoral technology-and-the-industrial-strategy approach. Current debates about whether internet service providers should have responsibilities House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology: Letter to the as publishers needs thoughtful legislative action. Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy There was support for broader pre-university www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-committees/science-technology/Industrial- education and for the breadth of studies in the strategy/2017-05-02-Industrial-strategy-ltr-to-BEIS-Secretary-of-state.pdf International Baccalaureate. Giving as many uni- fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 15 SKILLS Successive governments have argued that upgrading work skills is essential for increasing prosperity but the UK still lags behind other G7 countries. The challenge was debated at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 1 March 2017.

Lifting skills to meet the needs of society and the economy Mark Walport

kills are ultimately acquired by a combination of education, training and practice. SUMMARY There has been a great deal of attention to Sskills: the Apprenticeship Levy comes into force • Government has been focussing a great deal of in April; there is the Post-16 Skills Plan; and the attention on the issue of skills Industrial Strategy highlights the issue very • There are significant regional disparities in skills clearly indeed. levels and economic prosperity Sir Mark Walport FRS The Government Office for Science has been • Employers need to be more engaged with FMedSci spoke in his undertaking a piece of work within its Foresight education professionals to prepare young capacity as the Chief programme on the topic of skills. The project people for the world of work Scientific Adviser to HM identified five key issues: • The experience of education as a child has Government and Head of implications for learning later in life the Government Office 1. High skills levels are not equally distributed for Science. Sir Mark around the country and there is a very import- • The influence of parents’ educational experience is to become the Chief ant geographical link. should not be under-estimated Executive of UK Research 2. Skills are not always utilised in the most effec- and Innovation. Previously, Sir Mark was Director of the tive way, although perceptions differ about the Wellcome Trust. Before this ‘appropriate skills’ for particular jobs. economic cycles. Anyone in that environment he was Professor of Medicine 3. The UK does not do as well as it might in who has a good level of skill will want to go some- and Head of the Division of ensuring young people are ‘work-ready’. where better. That in turn creates skills gaps and Medicine at Imperial College London. He is Co-Chair of the 4. Many young adults have poor literacy and shortages in one place and a skills surplus in oth- Prime Minister’s Council for numeracy. ers – in the latter case there are too many skilled Science and Technology and 5. There has been a decline in the amount of life- people for low productivity jobs. has been a member since long learning people undertake. It is important to recognise the evidence of 2004. In 2010 he undertook an independent review skills disparities across the UK and that is reflect- for the UK Government Now, while diagnosis may be easier than deter- ed in the economic state of different parts of the on secondary education: mining the appropriate therapy, an ailment can- country. Science and Mathematics: not be treated without that initial assessment. Secondary Education for the 21st Century. Low skills equilibrium Skills equilibria Sectors in which a low skills equilibrium is partic- Consider first the issue of skills equilibria. In a ularly prominent include hospitality, retail and high-skills equilibrium there will be a combina- social care. Improved training standards and tion of high supply and high demand. That results greater professional certification could be used to in high wages, high productivity jobs, people with tackle this issue – and, to some extent, the appren- high educationally-obtained skills, high employ- tice programme is designed to do just that. Pro- ment and, if the situation truly is in equilibrium, viding more support to less productive firms balanced migration in and out. Obviously, that is could help them get the most out of their employ- a desirable state to be in. ees and increase their skills. On the other hand, in a low skills equilibrium, Ensuring that employers have a central role in a vicious circle is created where low-wage jobs shaping training provision can help satisfy unmet and low productivity are associated with a work- development needs among staff. This has been force that has low educational attainment and demonstrated by the Scottish Care sector who skills. That is very susceptible to the buffeting of engaged with the Open University in Scotland to

16 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SKILLS

deliver a specially designed training module to In Greater London, more than 45% are offering up-skill supervisors within the social services workforce. As an outcome of the project, super- work experience, yet there are other areas of the visors’ skills and knowledge were better utilised country where the figure falls to 30% and below. in the workplace, leading to improved care and greater job satisfaction. The Post-16 Skills Plan also aims to join up prospective employers and Germany, Mexico, etc (see Figure 1, page 18). In education providers to ensure that technical edu- all cases though, education providers are more cation programmes reflect the needs of employ- satisfied with their performance than employers ers. In addition, the Apprenticeship Levy is are! Even so, in the UK only 61% of the education designed to encourage employer investment in providers consider that they are preparing their higher skills. students well and just 36% of employers agree, which is low in comparison with competitors. Under-utilisation To a certain extent, the assessment of ‘under Work experience utilisation’ lies in the eye of the beholder. Half A 2014 UKCES survey3 looked at the number of of all UK graduates consider themselves to be employers that offered work experience in the over-qualified for the jobs they are doing, accord- previous 12 months – it covered 10,000 employ- ing to a study in 20121. Sectors where such views ers. In Greater London, more than 45% are offer- are prevalent include hotels, construction and ing work experience, yet there are other areas of the extractive industries. This perception applies the country where the figure falls to 30% and across a broad range of groups and neither below. Location plays a significant part in work ethnicity nor gender make any real difference. experience opportunities. Part-time workers are more likely to describe Similarly, a consideration of the distribution themselves as underutilised. of those students achieving five A* to C GCSEs, shows a high rate of more than 60% in the South Work-readiness East while significant parts of the country fail to The other side of the coin is the employer’s view achieve 53%. Overlay these results with the work of how prepared education leavers are for work. experience results and there are close geographi- Perhaps not surprisingly, preparedness improves cal correlations. with the level of qualification. For people with Levels of literacy and numeracy in the UK are degree level qualifications, employers rated 81% also poor on international comparisons. Not only of university and HE leavers as well-prepared for is the mean lower for both, but the spread work in a 2014 study2 – although there were still between the best and the worse is dramatically 15% who were not, which is not a trivial number. greater in the UK than almost every other coun- However, in the same research, employers try in the OECD. only considered 53% of school leavers to be well-prepared against 42% who were not. ‘Skills’ Adult learning in this context are not just literacy and numeracy Then there is the decline in adult learning. A very but also socio-emotional abilities – turning up at significant fraction of adults – one-third – has not work on time, being properly turned-out, being engaged in any form of learning since they left polite and communicative. Such skills are highly school. All the evidence indicates that strong valued and important for employment. education early in life is likely to be maintained Among the approaches that could be taken through later years. Previously successful learn- here is to promote and embed experience as part ers are much more motivated to continue. of educational courses. Employer-led initiatives Yet there has been a fall over many years in that feed into the education environment could workplace training and in adults participating in influence the preparation that education pro- FE and HE. Respondents cite logistical barriers vides. and motivational barriers. However, comparing There is a double responsibility here – that of the reasons given by those with higher degree-lev- the education system to prepare youngsters for el qualifications and those with no qualifications the workplace but equally an employer responsibility to work with the education system and communicate needs. A third of adults have not engaged in any learning Whether looking at the world of work through the eyes of education providers or employers, the since they left school. Previously successful UK performs poorly in comparison with the USA, learners are much more motivated to continue. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 17 SKILLS

Education providers’ perspective Employers’ perspective [n=100 per country] [n=300 per country]

United States 87% 49%

India 83% 51%

Germany 83% 43%

Mexico 77% 40%

Saudi Arabia 70% 55%

% of respondents Turkey 70% 50%

Brazil 67% 31%

United Kingdom 61% 36%

Morocco 53% 20%

Figure 1. Perceptions of adequate preparedness of new hires/graduates (Barton et al, 20124)

is very revealing. Motivational barriers – ‘I’m too Firms in the low equilibrium, low skill sectors old to learn’, ‘I lack confidence’, ‘I’m not interested must be encouraged to move up the skills/value in learning’ – are dominant among people that do chain. Employees who progress must be reward- not have qualifications. This shows how the lack ed: making sure they have better jobs is a real of early education in schools impacts later in life. reward for developing their skills and is one way Is there any opportunity to address this through of reaching families and communities. community and family-led programmes? Gener- Place is also very important to this – one ational learning could be important. Adult learn- size does not fit all for the whole of the United ing – and the lack of it – remains a significant issue. Kingdom.

Current initiatives The Industrial Strategy There are a number of educational initiatives to The Government’s Industrial Strategy sets skills increase maths education. There is much being as a very high national priority. There is no lack of done to develop the skills pipeline through political motivation to improve the skills situation apprenticeships and more technical approaches and there are many initiatives: the challenge is to to education. And it is a very long pipeline. have the patience to see those through. One message is very clear: the education of At the end of the day, skills are enormously one’s parents really matters, so it is vital to find important to the UK: they facilitate social mobil- ways to support people and families where par- ity, inclusion and wellbeing. ☐ ents do not have advanced levels of education. The idea that the benefits of early education can 1. Cedefop, 2012. skillspanorama.cedefop.europa. somehow be compensated later in life is difficult, eu/en/indicators/skills-under-utilisation#1 because the motivation to learn later depends 2. UKCES, 2014 www.gov.uk/government/ critically on earlier life stages. uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ Part of the answer to the question ‘How to file/373769/14.11.11._EPS_2014_-_Main_ switch the disengaged learner to an active learn- Report_full_V2.pdf er?’ involves stronger relationships between 3. UKCES, 2015 www.gov.uk/government/ employers and the education system as a whole. uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ file/404997/15.02.18._Youth_report_V17.pdf 4. Barton, D., Farrell, D. & Mourshed, M., 2012. The idea that the benefits of early education can Education to Employment: Designing a System that be compensated later in life is difficult. Works, NY, USA: McKinsey&Company.

18 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SKILLS The fundamental role of mathematics Adrian Smith

• the factors that encourage or discourage SUMMARY participation by individuals; • levels of attainment and progression; • Almost three-quarters of 16 year-olds achieving • the capacity to deliver, both in terms of A*–C at GCSE choose not to go further with provision of courses and teaching capability. mathematics. • Gender, ethnicity and geography all influence Wider issues participation in mathematics. Two wide policy issues have also emerged, which Professor Sir Adrian Smith • A substantial element of mathematical studies go beyond the narrow confines of 16-18 mathe- FRS is Vice-Chancellor of will be delivered by FE colleges which are already matics education, but which are crucial. the University of London. under pressure for resources. First, there is a need to pay closer attention to He is leading an inquiry into whether compulsory • Universities have an important role to play in gender, regional, ethnic and institutional varia- teaching of mathematics supporting maths provision in schools and tions in provision and attainment, and to develop should continue through colleges. appropriate interventions. ln mathematics, there to age 18. Previously, • An horizon-scanning study is needed to determine is a significant gender gap in progression to AS/A Sir Adrian was Director the impact of new technology on mathematics General, Knowledge level, despite good GCSE achievements by girls. ln and Innovation in the education in the near to medium term. 2014-15, only 50% of girls with GCSE A grades Department for Business, continued to AS/A level compared to 71% of boys. Innovation and Skills (BIS). There are concerning differences between local In 2003-04, he undertook an Inquiry into Post-14 n March 2016, I was asked to undertake, on areas in mathematics participation, which cannot Mathematics Education for behalf of HM Treasury and the Department be explained away by prior attainment. In 2014-15, the UK Secretary of State for for Education, a review of mathematics edu- London students who achieved A*-C were the Education and Skills. cationI for 16-18 year olds. The review was most likely to carry on to Level 3 mathematics prompted by two related issues: first, the increas- (33%) while students in the North East (20%) and ing importance of mathematical and quantitative Yorkshire & Humber (22%) were least likely. skills to the future workforce; and second, the low These stark regional and sub-regional differ- percentage of students in England continuing ences in attainment and participation in 16-18 mathematics post-16 in comparison with com- mathematics require more targeted and intensive petitor economies. responses. The comparisons in Table 1 are quite stark. Almost three-quarters of students attaining A*-C The Post-16 Skills Plan in GCSE mathematics at age 16 choose not to study The second major policy issue relates to the need mathematics beyond this level. to recognise more explicitly the fundamental Over and beyond the headline international importance of Further Education in the post-16 comparisons, the UK also has significant gender landscape. This was underlined by the publica- and regional discrepancy issues. An exacerbating tion (during the course of this review) of Lord factor is the longstanding comparative national Sainsbury’s proposals for technical education. neglect of technical and vocational education. Significant reforms to the technical education In addition, I was asked to consider the case for landscape were outlined in the Government’s (and feasibility of) all students continuing to study Post-16 Skills Plan in response to the Sainsbury some form of mathematics until 18. In this context, report. Under the auspices of the newly created mathematics is interpreted in its broadest sense, Institute for Apprenticeships, panels of industry including basic quantitative skills, statistics and professionals will determine the mathematical data analysis. content of the 15 technical education routes, pre- The review was structured under four broad sented by Sainsbury, where these directly relate to headings: occupational requirements. • the appropriate range of 16-18 mathematics Panels will need to ensure that this content pathways; reflects the needs of the profession, society and the fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 19 SKILLS

Table 1. Proportion of students in Proportion Country post-16 (or ‘upper All (95-100%) Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Japan, Korea, Russia, Sweden, secondary’) Taiwan education or training studying any Most (81-94%) Canada (BC), France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, USA (Mass.) mathematics, based on the 2010 Nuffield Many (51-80%) Australia (NSW), Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore Foundation report1 Some (21-50%) Hong Kong, Scotland, Spain Few (6-20%) England, Wales, Northern Ireland

emerging economy: this therefore needs appropri- models for schools and colleges. A combination of ate mathematical education expertise. The bulk of changes to A levels (the ‘decoupling’ of AS) and to this provision will have to be provided in FE Col- funding (per student rather than per qualification) leges. However, these are already stretched in are combining to present serious risks to the pro- terms of the resources for the teaching of mathe- vision of AS/A level Further Mathematics – a point matics, in part due to the Government’s current made by a number of respondents to the review. GSCE resit policy. Since 2014, 16-18 year-olds lf the number of Further Mathematics entrants without A*-C in GCSE mathematics have been from state schools were reduced, this could required to continue studying the subject and impact on their representation at research-inten- most do so in FE colleges. sive universities. This is not only resource-intensive, but many ln addition, core maths qualifications are always respondents to the review questioned the effec- studied as an addition to a student’s main pro- tiveness of the policy. They point to GCSE resit gramme. Yet, the current funding model does not success rates continuing to be disappointingly low incentivise core maths provision, despite wide- and the need instead to provide alternative, more spread enthusiasm for this. meaningful pathways. It is important for the Government to ensure that funding models for schools and colleges do not Level 3 mathematics lead to unintended financial disincentives for Encouraging students to choose Level 3 mathe- mathematics provision. matics is critical. There remain significant challenges in getting adequate information to young Teaching capacity people in order to properly inform their subject Schools report significant challenges recruiting and life choices. Careers advice must make clear skilled mathematics teachers. The Department from the earliest stage the importance of mathe- for Education is putting in place a range of addi- matics to a wide range of future careers. tional measures to improve school teacher supply Yet schools and colleges are also heavily influ- and quality. However, at the current time, the enced by entry requirements set by universities. Department has only smaller-scale measures to Higher Education has a role to play in overtly rec- improve both supply and the quality of existing ognising the value of Level 3 mathematics qualifi- teachers in FE to meet the challenges in the sector. cations for entry to those undergraduate courses This needs to be addressed. with a significant quantitative element. When establishing new schools, sponsoring Technology existing schools or providing other support, uni- Technology is already adding value to 16-18 teach- versities should encourage mathematics, particu- ing but there do not appear to be any widely-ad- larly in local areas where Level 3 participation and opted technological solutions in regard to capaci- achievement is poor. ty-building for specialist teaching. As part of the strategy to increase and enhance mathematics Funding teaching, a much-improved evidence base is need- There are serious concerns regarding the funding ed on the role and effectiveness of technology.

Culture Careers advice must make clear from the earliest Negative attitudes towards mathematics are a cause for concern. Gender has a heavy influence stage the importance of mathematics to a wide on mathematics participation, reflecting range of future careers. entrenched cultural attitudes. There is an urgent

20 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SKILLS need to understand and address the cultural (and We urgently need an horizon scanning study of other) root causes of negative attitudes. the long-term educational implications of the rise of data science for both mathematics and quantita- Longer term tive skills. ☐ The increasing sophistication of technology is driv- ing change across the economy and changing the 1. Nuffield Foundation (2010) Is the UK an outlier? nature of work. This increases the demand for An international comparison of upper secondary mathematics and quantitative skills, while also mathematics. www.nuffieldfoundation.org/sites/ changing the nature of required skillsets, in particu- default/files/files/Is%20the%20UK%20an%20 lar those relating to the analysis and use of ‘big data’. Outlier_Nuffield%20Foundation_v_FINAL.pdf The view from manufacturing industry Judith Hackitt

• continuous improvement, including SUMMARY developing the talent and skills of the workforce; • There is a mismatch between education system • investment which brings step changes provision and employer needs. in productivity through technological • The proportion of vacancies in manufacturing breakthrough and R&D. considered ‘hard to fill’ is rising.

• Apprenticeship should be accepted as equally Underpinning both is a significant increase in Dame Judith Hackitt DBE valid and worthwhile to undergraduate studies. leadership and management and skills. Without FREng is Chair of the EEF, • Manufacturers are looking abroad to fill vacancies these, productivity gains will not happen. Yet the formerly the Engineering but this may become more difficult after Brexit. skills gap is about much more than leaders and Employers’ Federation. Dame Judith has spent • The UK education system still fails to inspire young managers. There are clear gaps in skills across the most of her career as a people to work in industry. That must not continue. board, including production-related technical chemical engineer and in skills, as well as craft and technician skills. risk management. She The proportion of vacancies in manufactur- was previously chair of the Health and Safety Executive ndustry continues to struggle to recruit suffi- ing which were considered ‘hard to fill’ in 2015 and Director General of cient suitable young people, with far too stood at 35%. It was the same in 2013 and has the Chemicals Industries many lacking the skills that manufacturers worsened significantly since 2011. The main rea- Association. Ineed. While action has been taken to fill some son was a lack of technical skills among appli- gaps and avoid a crisis, it is a moot point whether cants – a problem cited by 68% of survey respon- there is a new crisis looming as Brexit approaches. dents. Employers also report that applicants lack There is still a mismatch between the skills the relevant experience. education and training system is delivering and Concerns about both the quality and quantity those that employers require. Far greater num- of candidates are leading to problems in recruit- bers of school leavers need to go into apprentice- ment in manufacturing. ships and there is an urgent requirement for a more integrated approach to skills. Addressing the skills gaps It is well known that the UK has fallen behind The UK has to close the productivity gap and com- many other nations in regard to productivity. pete globally in a fast-moving and technological- Although manufacturing productivity growth ly-driven era. This imperative drives the demand has outperformed the UK economy as a whole, it for specific skills and competences. A greater does not fare well in comparison to other coun- focus on IT skills reflects the expected growth in tries. Manufacturers are ambitious to change this digital connectivity as industry transforms itself in and almost all business plans have productivity today’s fourth industrial revolution. improvement embedded in them. However, pro- Three quarters of the companies surveyed ductivity improvement requires two key things: were concerned about finding the skills their fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 21 SKILLS

Manufacturers are continuing to invest in apprenticeships, and saw significant value in them even before the introduction of the Apprenticeship Levy SHUTTERSTOCK / MONKEY BUSINESS IMAGES BUSINESS MONKEY / SHUTTERSTOCK

businesses needed. This can often lead to begging, through the inefficient and leaky pipeline borrowing and stealing, with companies recruit- of Higher Education graduates; ing either from competitors or from their own • the best apprentices go on to study for supply chains. degrees based upon their strong foundation However, industry recognises this is not some- experience. one else’s problem. So, it is taking action itself. Manufacturers are continuing to invest in appren- Manufacturers do not specifically favour voca- ticeships, they are increasing their training bud- tional learners over more academic learners. The gets and offering generous remuneration packag- numbers planning to recruit apprentices and es to attract and retain the right people when they graduates are very similar. As the Apprenticeship can find them. Levy takes effect, though, it seems logical that The majority of manufacturers saw significant more employers will focus their efforts on appren- value in apprenticeships even before the introduc- tices in an effort to claw back their payments. tion of the Apprenticeship Levy. EEF owns and Employers are struggling to recruit the right runs a centre for its members in Aston in Birming- calibre of graduates. It may be that what is taught ham. Currently, there are close to 1,000 appren- on many undergraduate courses is not keeping tices in training there, using state-of-the-art facil- pace with industry expectations. ities. The number of well-equipped technical Perversely, the introduction of tuition fees has centres like this continues to grow. seen a significant increase in the take-up of engi- The problem lies in finding sufficient young neering courses but this trend does not look likely people to fill the opportunities available. In Sep- to continue going forward. tember 2016, EEF were only able to offer places to Indeed, the number of 15-19 year-olds in the 330 apprentices. Some 8,500 applications had been UK population is projected to fall from over 3.7 received but far too many simply did not meet the million in 2014 to around 3.5 million by 2019. required basic levels of Maths and English. Almost a quarter of manufacturing employers have recruited graduates from outside the EU in the past Apprenticeships three years in an effort to fill the gaps. This is not an Apprenticeships make sense for manufacturers: easy process and is set to become even harder after • apprentices learn about the company and Brexit and the tightening of our borders. A decline in the acquire skills that are immediately relevant in A decline in the number of young people number of young the workplace; makes the challenge of encouraging more stu- people makes the • their time is split between learning and dents to study STEM subjects (Science, Technol- challenge of on-the-job experience which enables faster ogy, Engineering and Mathematics) even more encouraging more integration into the workforce; difficult. Even though young people must take students to study • apprentices are much more likely to Maths, English and Science GCSEs, they may not STEM subjects become full-time employees and to stay achieve the results needed. Almost half of young even more difficult. with their employer than those recruited people do not achieve the required A*-C grades in

22 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SKILLS

English and Maths. At A-level, the story is even proficiency: all aimed at meeting employer needs. The renaissance of worse. The numbers studying Maths, Physics and Many of us believe this to be the single biggest chal- apprenticeships is Chemistry drop even further and there is a yawn- lenge in delivering the Strategy. None of it can suc- great news. But to ing gap between the numbers of men and women ceed unless we have the right people, in the right deliver the right skills studying these key subjects. numbers, with the right skills, working together to for industry requires create a thriving 21st century UK industry. significant investment Choosing a career The renaissance of apprenticeships is great and funding. There is a strong case for much better careers news. But to deliver the right skills for industry advice in schools in order to encourage young requires significant investment and funding. people into STEM and thence to careers in indus- Apprenticeships must be of high quality, using try. Careers advice typically comes too late to up-to-date technologies and with trainers who make a difference. It is offered to pupils at an age have current industry knowledge and expertise. where they have already made subject choices. FE colleges will struggle to deliver this require- Much earlier intervention is needed and this ment alongside the myriad other demands they should inspire and enthuse kids to see industry as face in a time of very tight funding. Institutes of it is today. They need to see that it is just as excit- technology sound like a good idea but they must ing and interesting as the games they play on their be built on the model of what is already working, tablets and iPhones – history lessons about what with considerable input from industry and they a great engineer Brunel was will not do the job! must continue to evolve as industry’s needs Then young people must be given a real choice, change. They will also need considerably greater where apprenticeships are presented as a good funding levels than those currently envisaged in and valid option which is in no way inferior to the Industrial Strategy Green Paper if they are to university. The evidence from industry is that have the needed impact. industrial apprenticeships are an increasingly attractive and effective route into the sector; and The post-16 landscape it is high time this message was conveyed to young Lord Sainsbury’s recommendations to simplify people, their teachers and their parents. the landscape of post-16 skills form a vital piece of Outdated perceptions take time to change. the jigsaw. Universities and the whole profession- The gender gap which persists in manufacturing al engineering system must also address some of amply demonstrates our failure to convince the real issues: young women (and those who influence them) • a shortage of people with the right skills to that they are welcome and valued. meet the needs of industry; When I decided to become an engineer more • the leakiness of the graduate pipeline and than 40 years ago, people around me thought it was understanding the reasons for it; odd and not something a girl should do. That this • the lack of integration between vocational attitude continues in places today is sad and does routes and Higher Education. not compare well with the progress made by other countries in addressing gender and diversity issues. Industry, too, must do better in: Is the UK’s education system producing the • articulating its needs; skills our society needs? Of course it is – in many • creating an inspiring and up-to-date image of ways and in many areas. However, there are seri- industry in the 21st century; ous gaps in areas which will be even more essen- • working coherently to inspire young people tial to society and the UK economy post-Brexit. and those who influence them.

Industrial strategy The most important message is that we all The country has world-class universities, deliver- need to act. The time is fast approaching when ing outstanding research which is recognised the recruitment of foreign workers is going to become world over. We are known as a nation of innova- more difficult, from both the EU and beyond. tors and inventors not just in the past but today, in We simply cannot continue to have half of our the 21st century. Our ability to turn those talents young people thinking that Engineering is not into economic growth and prosperity requires a something that girls do. Neither can we afford for sound and robust industrial strategy. our young people to see Maths and Science as a One of the 10 pillars of the Government’s recent burden rather than something exciting. Green Paper on this subject is about developing We are still failing to provide an education skills – building a proper system of technical edu- system which inspires young people for the cation and boosting key skills in science and tech- role we need them to take in industry. That nology, engineering and maths, as well as digital must not continue. ☐ fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 23 SKILLS The debate In a wide-ranging t was suggested that greater use of accredita- Most primary school teachers have a human- discussion tion schemes and later re-registration of ities, rather than a STEM, background. The following skills could increase the motivation for con- teacher training system needs to address this and the formal tinuedI learning at all ages. Greater use of digital ensure they acquire the necessary science skills to presentations, a technology as a platform for learning would help teach and enthuse their pupils. number of issues students, teachers and families to improve their were raised learning and skills. Tax incentives and debated. Those retiring from a career in industry often A ‘skills passport’ might help to facilitate move- have a lifetime of practical experience in their ment between professions and careers. One field. Perhaps some could be encouraged to contribution to improved productivity could be become teachers and impart some of their knowl- a taxation system which incentivises investment edge to a new generation. in human assets as much as investment in While three-quarters of the population does physical assets. not achieve Level 2 Maths (A*-C GCSE) these skills It should be recognised that STEM does not are fundamental to the UK’s ability to prosper in a exist in a bubble. Those studying these subjects post-Brexit world. Greater encouragement must also need to be equipped with literacy skills – be given at primary school stage to encourage the and particularly the ability to communicate pursuit of mathematics learning by the young. their learning. ☐

FURTHER INFORMATION

Building Our Industrial Strategy, Green Paper Making Mathematics Count. The 2004 report of beisgovuk.citizenspace.com/strategy/industrial-strategy Professor Adrian Smith’s Inquiry into Post-14 Mathematics Education Independent Panel Report on Technical Education (the www.mathsinquiry.org.uk/report/MathsInquiryFinalReport.pdf Sainsbury report) www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ The UK skills system: how aligned are public policy and employer data/file/536046/Report_of_the_Independent_Panel_on_ views of training provision? Anne Green and Terence Hogarth, Technical_Education.pdf August 2016 www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ The Government response to the Sainsbury report data/file/571695/ER8_The_UK_skills_system_how_aligned_ www.gov.uk/government/publications/post-16-skills-plan-and- are_public_policy_and_employer_views_of_training_provision.pdf independent-report-on-technical-education The UK’s Skill System: Training, Employability and Gaps in Government Office of Science Evidence Review for the Foresight Provision. Anne Green, Terence Hogarth, Sally-Anne Barnes, Future of Skills & Lifelong Learning project Lynn Gambin, David Owen, and Nick Sofroniou, August 2016 www.gov.uk/government/collections/future-of-skills-and- www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ lifelong-learning data/file/571691/ER7_The_UK_s_Skill_System_Training__ Employability_and_Gaps_in_Provision.pdf The UK’s Skills Mix: Current Trends and Future Needs. Professor Mike Campbell, December 2016 Skills Demand, Training and Skills Mismatch: A Review of Key www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ Concepts, Theory and Evidence. Frances Green, August 2016 data/file/571675/ER5_The_UK_s_Skills_Mix_Current_ Trends_ www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ and_Future_Needs.pdf attachment_data/file/571667/ER4_Skills_Demand__ Training_and_Skills_Mismatch_A_Review_of_Key_Concepts__ The UK skills system: how well does policy help meet evolving Theory_and_Evidence.pdf demand? Lynn Gambin and Terence Hogarth, August 2016 www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ Review of Vocational Education: The Wolf Report data/file/571688/ER6_The_UK_skills_system_how_well_ www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ does_policy_help_meet_evolving_demand.pdf data/file/180504/DFE-00031-2011.pdf

24 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SMART CITIES Making a city a place where people want to live and work is a challenge for city managers. Science and engineering can contribute a great deal to its smooth running. A meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 24 May 2017 looked at that contribution.

Taking a smart approach to 21st century infrastructure Robert Mair

have implications for risk and resilience, for asset SUMMARY management and for design. We should be aware of the vulnerability of city • Smart cities need smart infrastructure to make infrastructure. Burst water pipes, for example, them work. are an increasing problem: large numbers of • Much of our infrastructure is old and often has to properties were flooded in Stoke Newington in accommodate different loadings today than London in 2016. when it was designed. The Mississippi River Bridge in Minneapolis Professor the Lord Mair • Smart infrastructure can alert owners and was a major steel bridge, built in 1967, carrying CBE FRS FREng is the Sir operators about vulnerabilities before problems 140,000 vehicles every day. Yet 40 years later, on 1 Kirby Laing Professor of become critical. August 2007, it collapsed with no warning. Over Civil Engineering and was Master of Jesus College in • Continuous condition monitoring can enable a 100 cars were involved, many of them falling into Cambridge. Before he was rational, risk-based approach to asset the river, 13 people were killed and 145 injured. appointed to a Professorship management of infrastructure throughout its Particularly significant in the ensuing investiga- at Cambridge in 1998 he lifetime. tion was the evidence of a photograph taken four worked in industry for 27 years, in 1983 founding the • Innovative sensor technologies applied to years earlier which showed deformed gusset Geotechnical Consulting advanced health monitoring can lead to plates. Nothing had been done though and that is, Group, an international considerable design and performance in part, the reason for the dramatic collapse. consulting company efficiencies for infrastructure. There are over 600,000 highway bridges in the based in London. In his career he has specialised USA, of which 180,000 are steel bridges; around principally in underground 29,000 of these are deemed to be structurally construction, providing eople will have different views about what deficient. In the UK, we have tens of thousands of advice on numerous projects a smart city actually is. But ask what fac- bridges of many types. The problem is that we do worldwide. In the UK, he has been closely involved with tors are important to make a smart city and not know their real condition or how fast they are the design and construction Pthe answers are likely to include: environment, deteriorating. of the Jubilee Line Extension health and wellbeing, culture, recreation, educa- for London Underground, tion, employment, energy, transportation and Vital data as well as the Channel Tunnel Rail Link (now HS1) mobility, as well as infrastructure (physical and Smart infrastructure would be able to communi- and Crossrail projects. He digital). The infrastructure is a very important cate its physical condition at any point in time. is President-elect of the part of what makes a smart city work. Smart Bridges will have sensors measuring all kinds of Institution of Civil Engineers infrastructure is really the interaction between parameters as will our tunnels and buildings. and was appointed a crossbench peer in the physical and digital, so that it responds intelli- These sensors will give the information that the House of Lords in 2015. gently to changes in its environment, with the managers of our cities and the owners of our ability to influence and direct its own delivery, infrastructure need. They will tell us exactly how use, maintenance and support. all that infrastructure is performing. It will be There are many challenges facing the infra- health-monitoring of the physical environment. structure of our cities. First, there is its age – a In the Engineering Department at Cambridge, great deal of the UK’s infrastructure is very old. I lead the Centre for Smart Infrastructure and The loading it has to bear today is much changed Construction (CSIC) and our mission is to trans- from the days of its original Victorian engineer- form the future of infrastructure through smarter ing. It also has an uncertain future due to circum- innovation. The Centre is receiving about £22 stances such as climate change. These challenges million of funding over 10 years from the UK fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 25 SMART CITIES

Cities and infrastructure systems Performance Information Data requirements requirements requirements Value of infrastructure Assets Cities and Information requirements infrastructure Asset Data analysis Sensors and and BIM systems management and interpretation networks Data analysis and interpretation Decision- Analysis and Data collection making interpretation and transmission

Outcomes Information Data Sensors and data collection

Figure 1. Four scales of challenge

Government - Innovate UK and EPSRC - and indicating whether it needs to be repaired, main- also, very significantly, from industry, including tained, or part of it replaced. infrastructure owners and operators like London At the level of sensors, CSIC focuses on four Underground, Transport for London and Net- areas: distributed fibre optic strain sensors; wire- work Rail. less sensor networks and MEMS devices; energy We see four scales of challenge (see Figure 1, harvesting (i.e. sensors without batteries, that above). The sensors and data collection lead make use of vibrations on bridges or tunnels as through to analysis and interpretation, enabling their energy sources); and computer vision. improved design, construction and management of infrastructure assets throughout operational Fibre optic strain sensors life. This then leads to the wider city level with its If light is passed along an optical fibre a very high infrastructure systems. All of these are dependent proportion is transmitted through it, but a small upon one another. All cities and all infrastructure proportion is back-scattered. There are several systems have performance requirements which unique scattering signatures in the frequency require management, being informed by data spectrum of the back-scattered light (Raman and analysis and interpretation – and that is provided Brillouin). If the optical fibre is strained at a par- by sensors. All of this is underpinned by innova- ticular point, there is a shift in the signature. tion in sensors and data interpretation. Effectively, the optical fibre becomes one contin- CSIC is interested in modelling urban devel- uous strain gauge – and a very cheap one. The opment, human interactions with infrastructure fibre can be hundreds of metres long, even kilo- and whole-life value approaches to asset manage- metres long, and we can see exactly how the strain ment. This is not just about building another is changing at any point along the length. piece of infrastructure but also providing smart So, for example, in the Crossrail tunnels at Liv- information for asset management, design and erpool Street Station, optical fibre has been placed construction. That allows performance to be within the sprayed concrete linings to measure tracked all the way through the life of the asset, their performance and calibrate the design models – these platform tunnels are 11m in diameter. What was learnt from this fibre optic sensor sys- Optical fibre within the sprayed concrete tem has immediate application in providing evidence for potential design changes in reducing the linings of the Crossrail tunnels at Liverpool thickness of concrete around cross-passages Street Station measures performance between adjacent tunnels. This exercise has been

26 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SMART CITIES very useful in making future construction much Smart infrastructure enables us to have a full more economic while still being safe. understanding of the performance of our assets Elsewhere in London, there was some concern about sections of existing London Underground during construction and throughout their life. tunnel linings, specifically the movement and deformation of these linings. By installing fibre optics, a very comprehensive picture could be mit those measurements from each of the sensors built up as to what is actually happening. – this is attractive to the tunnel operators. Hammersmith Flyover is an interesting bridge. Bridges It was built in the 1960s and the papers at the time Traditional asset management of bridges relies stated this “should not cost a halfpenny to main- very heavily on visual observation data. So people tain over the next 100 years”. Just before the Lon- have to abseil off bridges, or they might have to be don Olympics a chance inspection inside a man- lowered down the side of a bridge to inspect it. hole cover revealed that 50% of the post-tension- There might even have to be underwater inspec- ing tendons had corroded away completely. The tions of some parts. Visual observation is the only bridge was consequently shut for four months way, currently, of inspecting bridges. Now, there while repairs were carried out, causing consider- are many opportunities for sensors to be used able traffic congestion. It came at a very bad time which would be much more quantitative, provid- with the Games just about to start. The bridge was ing invaluable data. subsequently equipped with wireless sensors – Masonry bridges are particularly important this is just the type of innovative sensing that can here: there are about 18,000 bridges in the UK stop this kind of major disruption to city infra- constructed of masonry in uncertain condition. structure. There have been three incidents of masonry bridges collapsing in 2015 and 2016. In many MEMS sensors cases the masonry is old, while axle loads on trains Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) sen- are typically two or three times what they were in sors are essentially strain gauges that can be the 19th century when those structures were built. designed on chips. These are just a millimetre or There is plenty of evidence of damage and so two in size, but etched into the silicon. There is a in many cities there are speed restrictions for rail- huge potential for producing cheap and highly ver- way bridges which result in service delays. In satile strain gauges using this kind of technology. Leeds, for example, there is one masonry bridge One of our PhD students at Cambridge which is quite substantially cracked. The combi- designed and developed a very neat little wireless nation of large cracks, evidence of settlement of sensor called the ‘Utterberry’, which can measure the arch and the need for speed restriction displacement, tilt, temperature, humidity and focused attention on it. other parameters. She has won a number of inno- Yet a combination of fibre optics and computer vation awards and her device is being deployed vision has shown very clearly that there is in fact no quite extensively on Crossrail and other projects. need for speed restrictions. That is a really import- It only requires very small amounts of power. ant application of the way sensors can provide In summary, there have been many recent answers to decision makers, enabling a rational innovations in sensor technologies and there are assessment of whether a piece of infrastructure is various sensor systems available today which can safe or instead needs to be closed down or repaired. be easily installed in robust networks to give us the information we need. Sensors and smart infra- Sensor networks structure deliver value when they are exploited for Sensor networks have enormous potential, now managing assets throughout their life, whether that we are living in a wireless world. Today sen- they be roads, tunnels, bridges, sewers, flood sors can be placed in tunnels, or on a bridge, or on defences or buildings. any piece of infrastructure, and these can be pro- Smart infrastructure enables us to have a full grammed to wake up, take a reading, transmit the understanding of the performance of our assets data to the adjacent one in a sequence, all the way both during construction and throughout their to a gateway which then goes into a mobile net- operational life. This gives greater efficiencies in work and on to the internet. design and performance, and facilitates rational So in a London Underground tunnel, for exam- strategies for whole life maintenance and asset ple, a number of sensors measure crack width and management. There is huge potential here for city inclination, all placed in the tunnel with no wires. infrastructure, both old and new, and this will be They can make measurements remotely and trans- of great benefit to its citizens. ☐ fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 27 SMART CITIES Engaging the citizen in policy making for cities Tom Saunders

esta focusses on social outcomes and social innovation. We think that the SUMMARY smart city has great potential to make urbanN living fairer, more democratic, healthier • Data is part of policy making, but politics is the and also more fun. Often in debates about the larger part smart city, it is quite a dreary discussion about • Technology can promote bottom-up citizen problems. But we should not forget that cities are engagement in decision making Tom Saunders is a places of culture and opportunity, where technol- • Start by identifying problems to be solved, not principal researcher in the ogy has a role to play too. with trying to find a new application for a international innovation Our own work on smart cities is concentrated technology team at Nesta, the Opening up policy making could let to more and innovation foundation. His on policy making. How can smarter use of data, • current work focuses on people and technology improve the way that better ideas for urban living cities, with a particular focus decisions are made in cities? Now there is a on how cities can use digital slightly dystopian idea of the smart city in which, technologies and data to address the challenges with enough data, fast enough computers and cover about 50% of demand for evening transport they face. He leads Nesta’s powerful enough algorithms, decisions can be with only 30 buses. research and engagement made without people. Actually, this is not a cor- with China. rect view of how policy making works. Data is Passive engagement part of policy making, but politics is a larger part. Now that engagement is – from the citizens’ point Resolving competing interests between the of view – quite passive as they do not need to do young and the old, new arrivals versus people anything. In other mobile-based initiatives, citi- who have been here for a long time, cyclists ver- zens can actively engage. Fix My Street is a very sus taxi drivers – there is no data and no technol- simple idea for reporting problems and there are ogy which is going to give the correct answer on many similar apps available around the world these issues! now. The aim, though, is to allow city governments to become aware of issues that they might Towards a collaborative city not normally find out about. Of course, without Combining technology with citizen input and cit- a mobile phone it might be difficult to participate izen engagement can, I believe, create this fairer, at all, but it is an interesting start. more collaborative city. Going through a number In Indonesia, Twitter data is being used to of examples around the world, the main thing to map flooding. This only works in areas where a notice is that they are all very new. The iPhone is lot of people are tweeting about this (so it would only 10 years old, so this is a new field where peo- not work in London, for example), but in Jakarta ple are learning and experimenting. many people die every year due to flooding. Policy is often made by elites – in Whitehall or With thousands and thousands of tweets, wherever it might be. It is important to recognise researchers have been able to create a map of the – and mitigate – the risk of missing the real issue city using the social media data. They have that people face out there in a real city. In Seoul, added actual sensors as well and the map is now there has recently been an initiative to establish a in real time. Previously, it took about six hours to night bus service. Budget was very limited, so there update, based on traditional methods of flood was no possibility of replicating the daytime net- officers going out around the city and checking work. There are about 7,000 daytime services, but the weather. It is a very interesting blended use of only budget for around 30 buses for the evenings. sensors and data from people. So the bus company worked with a telecoms company to map the movements of people at Open innovation night and then combine that with address data to The idea of ‘open innovation’ is that the best ideas work out where people were moving from and to. are not in R&D departments but are out in society This was all anonymised. In fact, the new services with some start-up or some researcher. Yet Gov-

28 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SMART CITIES ernment still clings to the idea that it alone has the best ideas for policies. Opening up policy making Table 1: Informing policy – six lessons could potentially lead to much better ideas about 1 Start with a problem, not a technology project how we should manage our cities. One approach is the crowd-sourcing of ideas 2 Build on existing knowledge and share evidence from citizens for developments in cities. Howev- 3 Open up the innovation process er, ask individuals what they want and they are likely to focus on their personal needs which is not 4 Keep it simple necessarily the best thing for the community. Much better ideas arise through deliberation and 5 Invest in smart people there are now a number of platforms which allow 6 Remember, there is a world beyond the internet citizens to come together, debate and deliberate on what they wish to see built in their city. Better Reykjavik is a simple website with a debate forum tance of the difficult situation that many cities are where people can propose ideas. Other contribu- now in regarding budgets. Helsinki has a very tors can vote on these and the most popular go to simple smartphone/computer interface where the city council who then discuss and decide on people can search council decisions, sign up to them. These may be about quite simple projects different debates, or go online and debate with around parks and suchlike, but it demonstrates fellow citizens. the principle that citizens can come up with intelligent ideas which the council can then act upon. Emerging science of collaboration There are also many technologies available to All of these examples are very new. This is an engage a much wider pool of experts and exper- emerging science of collaboration with citizens tise. So instead of just having an expert roundta- through technology. There is a lot to learn. What ble in a particular location, it is possible to engage is needed here is a spirit of experimentation experts in any particular field from across the among policy makers. As part of a big £10 million world to help come up with an answer. internet of things programme, for example, it might be worth considering a citizen engagement Decision making aspect to pilot some of these new ideas to help All these apps and platforms allow citizens to solve some of the huge urban issues facing society. debate and contribute, but ultimately someone in In our report Governing with Collective Intelli- the city government makes the decision about gence1, Nesta came up with six lessons that we whether a particular course of action is feasible or think any city government trying to support and not. However, there are now experiments in which promote this approach should follow (see Table 1, can be termed ‘participatory budgeting’, essentially above). Too often, the debate on smart cities delegating decision making authority to citizens. revolves around: “Here’s a piece of tech, what can Paris has a fund of about €500 million to be you do with it?” There really needs to be more spent over five years on ideas that come from citi- bottom-up thinking to, first, identify a problem zens. In one sense it is similar to Better Reykjavik and then, if technology is indeed needed to solve and similar initiatives, but the key thing is that it it, identify that technology. has a budget attached. This is important. City With smartphone apps and data sources and councils often complain that citizens are not devices there has to be someone using them. So, we engaging. But why should they spend their time think that it is important to include training in any going to meetings or coming up with ideas if in all smart cities programme – what is data, how to use likelihood they are going to be ignored? Partici- it, what does it mean. This can help governments patory budgeting and similar approaches are very take ownership of decision making, without having good ways of motivating citizens to engage but for to rely on external data experts to interpret the data councils it means a different way of working. and make the decisions on their behalf. ☐ Then there is the question of oversight – letting citizens monitor programmes. Now why would a 1. www.nesta.org.uk/publications/governing- city want to do that? Well, one reason is that it has collective-intelligence been found to increase acceptance of decisions. Lewisham Council had to cut large sums of money from their budget and the people who live there There are now a number of platforms which allow obviously were not happy. So the council created a game: how would you spend our budget if you citizens to come together, debate and deliberate had this money? The aim was to increase accep- on what they wish to see built in their city. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 29 SMART CITIES The smart city as a place for communities to thrive Peter Marland

ilton Keynes is “different by design, loved by its population and admired by SUMMARY others. Known as a place of learning Mand innovation with fantastic green space, MK is a • To thrive, cities have to focus on their culture, place where they just get it right for people, innova- remaining relevant and resilient. tion and entrepreneurs.” That is taken from our • By 2050, 70% of the global population will live in recently published MK Futures 2050 document – cities. Councillor Peter Marland that is the vision of the city we want to create for • Cities will have to become much better at the is Leader of Milton Keynes Milton Keynes by 2050, as a result of a commission efficient use of resources. Council. He initiated the set up with the help of the Vice-Chancellor of • Smart cities will be those that change their innovative MK Futures 2050 Cranfield University Sir Peter Gregson. Nowhere inhabitants’ lives for the better. Commission and helped develop the concept of does it mention grid roads, nowhere does it men- • Smart cities will be places designed for people, MK:IT, a university for Milton tion roundabouts or what type of buildings there not just to showcase the latest infrastructure and Keynes based on developing are. Instead, it mentions people and it talks about technologies. skills and employment what it is to be a city. around knowledge intensive industry. He is a Board Milton Keynes was a collection of 13 villages in Member of Milton Keynes 1967 – we are celebrating our 50th birthday this years: these are not blue collar manual jobs, but Development Partnership, year. It had a population of about 40,000 people doctors, lawyers, jobs that command over the South East Midlands then. This year, we are approaching 300,000 peo- £100,000 annual salary. Enterprise Partnership and MK Gallery. He ple and by 2050 we will be 500,000 people. Milton Keynes did not have an elderly popula- helped establish the Fast It is currently the biggest city between London tion 15 years ago because so many moved in Growing Cities Group of and Birmingham. We are bigger than Oxford, during the 70s and 80s. So these people are all local authorities including Cambridge, Reading or Peterborough. Milton getting old at exactly the same time. However, Oxford and Cambridge, and is a member of the Keynes is a big city, yet people still think of us in this year there were twice as many children in the Resources Board of the Local terms of concrete cows and roundabouts – we are first year of nursery as there are leaving secondary Government Association. so much more than that. school. We build 1% of the total housing output But I would not want to follow the path of plac- of the UK – 1,750 houses a year – and there are es like Crewe. Crewe had connectivity; it was ide- much heavier traffic flows. We need more ally placed between Manchester and Liverpool (as resources. Yet, for a city that was built only 50 Milton Keynes is between London and Birming- years ago, we also have areas of deprivation. ham). However, when the industrial activity of There are also global challenges. By 2050 there Manchester and Liverpool – and the relationship will be 10 billion people on this planet. 70% will between them – changed, Crewe was not needed live in cities. Yet, there will not be 40% more in the same way and it lost the role it once had. resources. Our power usage every decade is going When I became leader of the council, I was up by 50% - there will not be 200% more electric- absolutely determined to make sure that some- ity in that time, so the challenge is to harvest our thing similar did not happen to Milton Keynes. resources better, while making cities absolutely That’s why I set up the commission. places where people want to live. What should a city want and aspire to in 2050? To me it is simple, it is about culture, about being The future relevant and resilient. London is the greatest city in So, what are we doing in Milton Keynes? I am the world, but it is not the city the Romans founded, quite clear we need a city of young entrepreneurs it is not the city of King Charles II when he set up and educated people. As part of that we need an the Royal Society and the Royal Academy. undergraduate university (we do not have one at Cities change and innovate and adapt and I the moment), because if the future is built on any- want to make sure Milton Keynes changes and thing, it is built on entrepreneurs. innovates and adapts. Some 60% of our jobs We have a ‘Living Streets’ project where we are in danger of being automated in the next 20 close streets to traffic to make streets liveable

30 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SMART CITIES EVERYMAN FILMS (EVERYMAN FILMS) (EVERYMAN FILMS EVERYMAN One of the electric buses in Arriva’s fleet in Milton Keynes again. We are deploying sensors in every single spending lots of money in the NHS on hip or knee car parking space to make sure that in every one of operations, use technology to inform a 20 year old our 22,000 car parking spaces people know where that the way they walk could mean by age 60 they they are. The city has the world’s first commercial have a hip problem? The technology exists and we electric bus service. can use it to save a lot of money down the line: we Among our community projects is one called just have to shift the spend from managing failure MK:SMART1. Every bit of data from most of the to preventative services. services in Milton Keynes is placed into an open data platform run by the Open University, BT and Changing behaviours other collaborators. It allows citizens, who can be We have to change behaviours. We have to get private individuals or entrepreneurs, to go in, look citizens involved in the way that decisions are at the data and propose (sometimes disruptive) made. We live in an era of Facebook and Twitter ways of improving things. That is a challenge for and instant feedback. That feedback is often quite a politician, who may be used to telling people “I negative, but some of that is concerned with my have all the answers, vote for me.” performance as council leader: “Why is my street I believe a great deal of the technology we are dirty? Why is this or that service being cut?” My currently producing is just managing the way we challenge back is: “What are you doing to fix it as do things now. We need to be looking to the a citizen – as a citizen of your street, as a member future, but in a smart way. of your community? What are you doing, because I know a city that spent a great deal of money I don’t have the money to do it?” buying bin compactors, allowing twice the amount Technology is dumb, people are smart. As a of rubbish to be put in each bin. Unfortunately, the leader you have to trust people and their com bin was then twice as heavy. So, while they had munities. I think we need to make smart cities, not ensured that they could reduce collections to once technological cities. We have to make communities, a fortnight, they then needed two men to do those not places, and we have to make real cities that are collections because the bins were so heavy – or else for people, not for big items of infrastructure. ☐ they would have to buy a really expensive machine to empty them. Yet, no-one asked why there was 1. www.mksmart.org so much rubbish in that bin in the first place. No-one asked “How can we make sure that there is less rubbish for collection?” I know a city that spent a great deal of money Smart cities are ones that can transform services that manage current demand into ones that buying bin compactors. No-one asked why there change people’s lives. How can we, instead of was so much rubbish in that bin in the first place. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 31 SMART CITIES The debate Issues raised arth observation data from satellites is by the audience already saving money for councils in their included: air enforcement of permitted planning devel- quality, climate opments.E China is leading innovation in moni- change, planning toring air quality data via mobile devices. By con- powers and trast, London is a long way behind in installing the role of widespread air quality sensors. universities. The most successful cities are inexorably drawing in more people. Shifting people to other cities would be challenging. The rapid decline of Rome at the end of the Roman Empire shows that people only stay for good reasons. Greater online working from home could disrupt city growth

significantly. MERLION444 Singapore: a long-term approach to planning Climate change Some substantial world cities face great challeng- ping from the political agenda in the UK. Citizen es from climate change. It can create significant feedback might halt such decline, particularly in issues for some physical infrastructure, but is slip- some cities. There are still substantial benefits to be secured for citizens through energy efficiency investment. FURTHER INFORMATION Inevitably there are risks with dependence on technology, as the recent global problems with ran- Forum for the future: future cities dialogue somware have shown. Results of pilot studies www.forumforthefuture.org/project/future-cities-dialogue/overview undertaken by city authorities must be made open- ly available. The reliability and security of data are Government Office of Science – Future of Cities Report very important, particularly in areas of critical www.gov.uk/government/collections/future-of-cities infrastructure such as nuclear power stations. Inclusive growth, based on use of technolo- Government Office for Science – Future Cities: gies, is an important consideration for smart cit- foresight for cities ies. Inclusivity means incorporating the perspec- www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-of-cities-foresight-for-cities tives of those not using the internet, for example through community meetings. Milton Keynes Futures:2050 Implementing city visions is much harder www.mkfutures2050.com when planning powers remain highly centralised. A potential benefit of Brexit may be that procure- NESTA – Governing with Collective Intelligence ment frameworks for cities move away from sim- www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/governing_with_collective_intelligence. ple best economic value to allow more consider- pdf ation of tenders with social benefits. Universities can generate substantial benefits NESTA - Rethinking Smart Cities from The Ground Up to the cities in which they are located, because www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/rethinking_smart_cities_from_the_ they attract talented researchers from around the ground_up_2015.pdf world and their families. They are also likely to generate innovative use of technology locally. University of Reading report for RICS Research Trust on Big Data and Smart Some participants highlighted the long term Cities perspective inherent in Singapore’s approach to www.rics.org/uk/knowledge/research/research-reports/smart-cities-big- planning. This was linked to skills: from primary data-and-the-built-environment-whats-required school on, education in digital technologies is promoted. University of Reading paper on smart and sustainable cities Technology has great potential for monitoring www.reading.ac.uk/web/files/cme/cme-Dixon_SCME_big_data_paper_ the physical infrastructure on which smart cities AS_v_11_WEB_(1).pdf depend. Citizens should be fully involved in how technology should be applied. ☐

32 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE A special meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology, held at the Royal Society on 21 June 2017, considered the effects of demographics and medical trends on the UK health and social care systems.

The challenges facing the UK’s health and social care systems Chris Whitty

them will be healthier than they are now. SUMMARY Both statements are correct and they need to be balanced against each another. • The number of older people in our society is set to increase substantially but the majority of the The progress of medicine population will continue to be of working age – One lesson of recent history is that medicine gen- and healthier. uinely has progressed – everywhere. In 1910, just • Most countries in the world are converging in over 100 years ago, virtually every country in the Professor Chris Whitty terms of life expectancy and healthcare world had an average mortality of somewhere CB FMedSci is Chief demands. between 20 and 40 years. The richest countries of Scientific Adviser at the Medicine has been responsible for real and the world had a mortality rate of around 55. Department of Health and • Deputy Government Chief remarkable advances in health across the globe, Project forward to 1948 and the demographic but this means the demand for medical, nursing Scientific Adviser. He is that the NHS was set up to deal with. At this point, an epidemiologist and and social care will rise everywhere. Supply of in the UK and the USA average mortality had physician. He is also the health and social care workers is probably rising risen to the late 60s. Most countries in the world Professor of Public and less rapidly. International Health at the were still down in the 40s. London School of Hygiene • Internal migration in the UK will mean a shift The extraordinary thing that has happened & Tropical Medicine and towards increased healthcare demand in since is that, not only has every country got better, a Consultant Physician suburban and rural communities. but there is a grand convergence towards a similar in acute medicine and infectious diseases at • Rises in costs for healthcare (both of medicines age of mortality. Even the poorest countries in the University College London and treatment) are not primarily driven by world with the weakest health services have a bet- Hospitals and the Hospital demographic change. ter life expectancy than the richest countries had for Tropical Diseases. He was 100 years ago. The average life expectancy in most previously Chief Scientific Adviser and Director of of Africa is better than the UK had when the NHS Research & Evidence at the he data I am using are uncontroversial was formed – that is an astonishing achievement. Department for International in the sense that they come from widely Medicine genuinely does progress – the world Development. accepted and respectable sources. They is getting healthier. There is some debate about Tare mainly Office of National Statistics (ONS) what the average age of death will be in 40 years data, World Health Organisation (WHO) data, but most people think it will probably be some- UN data or trustworthy major charity data. where in the 80s. How they are interpreted is a slightly different question. Healthcare workers Table 1 (see page 40) gives ONS projections of Why is that important? Well, as a start health care where we are roughly now and then where we will and social care are tradeable assets. To have a med- be in 2039. These projections can be read in two ical degree, to have a nursing qualification or to be ways – both are correct. The first is that the num- prepared to care for elderly, frail people with ber of people who are elderly is going to roughly dementia is an asset which you can trade anywhere. double. This is going to be a significant challenge In most countries of the world, the need for for the health and care services. healthcare will increase and the proportion of An alternative view is that, even projecting for- younger people will start shrinking. This means a ward to 2039, the great majority of people will be massively increased need for doctors, nurses and in younger, employed periods of life and most of care staff. There will be more global wealth to pay fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 33 HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE

Table 1. Population Age 2019 2039 projections 0-14 12.0 12.4 (millions) for the UK 15-29 12.4 13.5 (Source: ONS) 30-39 12.9 13.2 40-59 13.4 13.4 60-74 10.4 12.0 75-84 4.1 6.3

85+ 1.7 3.7

for them, but probably around the world not migration for future health services. In our coun- enough health workers are being trained currently. try, people go to the cities in their late teens or early The UK is below the replacement level of fer- 20s. They stay there until, usually, they have their tility now, but only just. Most countries in Europe, second child, at which point they move out. The though, are well below: 2.1 is the level needed to cycle then repeats. This creates the situation of a keep the population stable – many countries in young city maintaining its demographic profile. Europe have a fertility rate of 1.5 or lower. As a result, suburban and rural areas are going Looking back to 1985, the UK was almost the to age much faster over time than the averages oldest country in Europe. Project forward a cou- would suggest. Take Lambeth in London: the ple of decades and we will become one of the demographic profile in 2037 will be almost iden- youngest. In Germany, for example, a large sec- tical to what it is now, but therefore – as the tion of the population is currently aged between national average changes – places like Norfolk and 40-70. All of these people are going to retire in Devon are going to get very old, very quickly. quick succession. Germany is due to hit a demo- This internal migration is going to make the graphic wall in about 15 years. For most other demographic challenge harder. It is already diffi- countries in Europe other than Germany, this cult to deliver healthcare in rural areas and the event is a further decade away but still inevitable. problem is set to increase. At the same time, the It takes about 20 years to train a consultant number of people of working age in these parts of from the time they enter medical school, so the the country will diminish, so the age-support people who should be leading us through this ratio will get worse. This is not just a medical chal- phenomenal challenge for our continent should lenge but especially one of social care. be entering medical school now – but they are not, at least not in sufficient numbers. Mortality and cardio-vascular disease The challenge for the UK is that it has always Even over the last 15 years – quite a short period been able to rely on importing healthcare workers – a substantial improvement in mortality has – both highly trained and unskilled – into our sys- occurred across the entire country. This is reduc- tem. Yet a massive increase in demand every- ing some of the disparities in health provision. where is coinciding with a much slower increase Very few people outside of medicine appreci- in supply. The result will probably be that the cost ate the astonishing reduction in cardio-vascular of healthcare labour goes up, there will be short- disease over the last 40 years. Mortality in men ages or quality will go down – that is inevitable and women has begun to converge, largely unless we plan ahead. because of changes in smoking habits, but also because of very big changes in the incidence of Internal migration cardio-vascular disease, stroke and heart disease. People worry a great deal about external migra- Take stroke. Until recently, this was considered tion, but this is much less important than internal a disease about which we could do little. Yet the incidence of stroke has decreased steadily, by 19% for example from 1990 to 2010. Mortality rates for Look back to 1985, the UK was the oldest country this period decreased by 46%. While this is undoubtedly good news on both counts, it does in Europe. Project forward a couple of decades mean that the number of people living with a stroke and we will become one of the youngest. has therefore gone up and is not evenly distributed.

34 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE

Figure 1: Age- standardised coronary heart disease mortality rates, UK 1974- 2013. 73% reduction overall, 81% reduction on those under 75 years. (Source: BHF)

Look at London. Young people tend to live in but only for half the population. It suggests that all the centre and they do not often have strokes. of that advantage is in men and there is no Older people live around the outside and, in fact, improvement in women. incidence goes up with distance from the centre. This may lead to quite a significant shift in the Our specialist stroke units are often in the city cen- geography of ill-health in the UK – we are seeing a tres – that probably needs a rethink. decrease in the geography of ill-health dominated Interestingly and importantly, because age is by smoking and therefore cardio-vascular disease, increasingly the dominant risk factor for most of but an increase in ill-health due to frailty and these conditions, the relative importance of dementia. socio-economic status is decreasing: that is not There will be a shift in demand from urban to because the differences are getting smaller, it is a rural and there will be a shift between different fact of biology. This has been accompanied by areas of the UK as a result of medical advances. some really quite profound changes in the delivery There will also be significant changes in the need of care. The rate of cardiac surgery has decreased for different skill sets in the medical population. over a long period of time. The number of people Traditionally, cancer has been another big kill- having angioplasty on the other hand has steadily er. Overall, we have moved from a situation where increased, because this procedure is cheaper and three-quarters of sufferers died within 10 years to above all safer. one where now only one-half will die and improve- So, cardio-vascular disease is no longer the ments are continuing steadily. most important cause of mortality. Treatments are getting cheaper and better. More people survive The pace of change and new challenges attacks and life is better for those recovering from Many scientists believe advances happen by way a heart attack or a stroke. of a breakthrough followed by a permanent step change in health. This is not true. All of these Other conditions improvements discussed have been made up of On the other hand, projections for dementia are multiple very small advances, rolled out in rela- going up, not because there is more dementia but tively gradual ways, meaning that improvements because people are not dying of other things. happen in a fairly predictable steady way. It is Dementia is an increasing (epidemiological) bur- therefore possible to predict survival rates for dif- den: it is going steadily to increase until there is a ferent cancers into the future. significant change in the science, for which there While recent advances are very good news in is currently no evidence. An important paper last year suggested that while the total number of cases is going up, the rate There will be a shift in demand from urban to rural of new cases looks to be going down. Now this is only one study but if the findings were to be repli- and there will be a shift between different areas of cated in other research, it represents good news – the UK as a result of medical advances. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 35 HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE

There is currently a vaccine in the UK that reduces the incidence of cervical cancer by roughly 50%. A further vaccine already available in some countries will reduce it by about 95%. Add screening to that and hardly anyone will contract the disease in 20-30 years’ time.

New issues At this point in time, for every two years of life gained through better healthcare, only one is healthy life. That second, unhealthy year will require care or medicine, or both. This will lead to a significant challenge unless we reconsider the current focussing of medicine on mortality. In addition, an increasing proportion of the population who are ill have multiple, apparently unrelated illnesses. However, the current medical Figure 2: UK smoking terms of treatment, they come at a cost. Most of system has increasingly moved towards specialisa- and lung cancer the drugs being put onto the market are still on tion. The NICE system (National Institute for rates. There will be a patent. A few drug companies increase their costs Health and Care Excellence) is based on the con- roughly 20 year lag. of drugs by roughly 10% twice a year and the mar- cept of treating a single disease pathway. There is ket bears that; in some instances, the prices are a mismatch here between an increasingly stove- even steeper. This is a significant policy issue. piped care system and increasing multi-morbidity There are also areas where new challenges have which needs to be addressed. arisen. The UK is typical of industrialised coun- Total per capita spend on healthcare has steadi- tries (probably towards the leading edge, sadly), ly increased in the UK. Now, there is a widely-held with male obesity rising from 13% to 26% of men belief that this is being driven mainly by demogra- over a decade. NOx air pollution was not predict- phy – which is wrong. The Office of Budget ed a decade ago – so there are, from time to time, Responsibility (OBR), in its 2007 Fiscal Sustain- unexpected challenges emerging. ability Report, said: “In the UK, public spending on health has increased by 3.8% a year on average Prevention in real terms since 1978-79. The economy has Another major issue which has emerged over recent grown by an average of just 2.2 % a year.” It added: years is the onset of Anti-Microbial Resistance “Demographic effects have explained only a small (AMR). Here, too, the statistics show an encourag- part of the increase” which, having looked at the ing story. Recent data for UK smoking showed yet data in some detail, is in my view correct. another drop, down to just over 15% of the popula- There is no doubt that most healthcare costs tion – an astonishing improvement. Health gains tend to occur towards the end of life, but whenever from this in terms of cardio-vascular disease come you die the majority of your care will be in the last through relatively quickly. Cancer gains come six months. In every aspect of our healthcare sys- roughly 20 years after. The lung cancer rates for 20 tem, the demand for services is going up at a rate years hence can be predicted on the basis of smok- higher than would be predictable by demography ing rates – and they will be decreasing. alone – even under the most pessimistic scenarios. There are some cancers which the Government This is the OBR’s view. has been able to affect through the introduction of As another example of the non-demographic clear public health measures. The UK has stopped nature of healthcare demand, look at outpatient using asbestos in buildings. While we were using attendances. In the UK, this is going up at between it, mesothelium, a cancer which almost exclusive- 5-7% a year. The rate of increase is just as fast in ly affects people exposed to asbestos, steadily 20-59 year olds (who are healthier than their increased. Now we have stopped using it, the rate equivalents 20 years ago) as it is in people of 60-79. will progressively drop to virtually zero. So to argue that this is driven by age simply does not hold water. There is a big increase, but it is not driven primarily by demographics. In every aspect of our healthcare system, the Global demographic shifts will have implications for healthcare workers, social care workers demand for services is going up at a rate higher and industry, and these impacts have not fully than would be predictable by demography alone. been internalised by policy makers. Internal

36 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE migration is very important and, in my view, much Science does actually buy you something – more important than external migration, but tends to be overlooked – particularly the profound and that is better health for your money. shift towards rural care which is much more difficult to deliver. and I am passionately committed to maintaining There are major shifts in the relative impor- that, but we must also be honest and admit that tance and geography of diseases due to medical this will also increase costs. Science does actually advances which, in my view, are largely predictable buy you something – and that is better health for based on current, steady trends. It should be pos- your money. sible to identify where healthcare pressures are The impact of demography on health will be real going either to increase or decrease based on but, relative to many other factors, will be much trends – this does not require any speculation smaller than is popularly imagined. The combined about future science. Future science may change challenges of aging, internal migration and this, but current trends are largely predictable. multi-morbid frailty pose a very serious social care Scientific advances absolutely improve health challenge in addition to the healthcare challenge. ☐

After the lecture by Professor Whitty, there were two formal responses before the audience were invited to contribute. The two responses were from Sir Robert Lechler and Professor Marcel Levi. Addressing the challenges to health and social care Robert Lechler

here is no question but that the health and social care system in the UK is going to SUMMARY come under increasing pressure. Several Tfactors are going to intensify that pressure and • The health and social care system is facing these are worth bearing in mind at this point in increased pressure. our political cycle. • The political situation is adding to pressures on The decision to leave the EU is already having staffing and training. Sir Robert Lechler is an impact on recruitment from continental • We must be better at delivering value-based President of the Academy Europe. At the same time, the Government is healthcare. of Medical Sciences. He is changing the way nursing education is funded. It • Medical advances are reducing deaths but how currently also Vice Principal can they also improve quality of life? (Health) at King’s College is moving away from the bursary structure used London and Executive up till now, and instead is instigating a fee regime, • A public debate is needed on the future options Director of King’s Health much like that for other students who have to pay for health and social care. Partners. His clinical and £9,000 a year. As someone who is overseeing a research career have been focussed on the pursuit faculty of nurse training, I can see this is already of clinical transplantation having a negative impact on mature students Empowerment tolerance. He worked on entering the workforce. Progressive patient empowerment will also need in vitro and in vivo rodent Those of us engaging with the challenges of to be taken into account. Most people endorse models. However, more recently he has helped to Brexit have tended to focus on the highly-skilled patient empowerment which will include increas- define biomarkers of clinical part of the workforce and the need for us to attract ing ownership of your own health records and by tolerance and is now helping the very best talent, particularly in the context of extension increasing ownership of your own to lead the first in-man research. I hope we do not overlook the fact that health. Patients can access information about trials of cell therapy aimed at promoting immune- our social care system depends on people at the their disease through the internet and come along tolerance in recipients lower end of the skills range. Many of those, too, to meet their clinician with a well-informed view of kidney and liver organ come from overseas and particularly from conti- of their condition. transplants. nental Europe. There is a real threat from Brexit That will increase patient expectations too. in this regard to which we need to pay attention. The risk is that there will be greater intolerance of fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 37 HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE

The Government’s move away from a bursary structure of funding for training is already having a negative impact on mature students entering the workforce. JOHN GOMEZ / SHUTTERSTOCK.COM / GOMEZ JOHN

unexplained variation in outcomes – whether comes at lower cost. We have to become serious by geography, postcode lottery, by healthcare about delivering value-based healthcare. provider, even by individual clinician. Second, there is an urgent need to increase the The Academy of Medical Sciences has pro- volume and quality of research that explores these duced a report called Improving the Health of the challenges effectively and provides a reliable evi- Public 2040 looking at the factors that are going to dence base for policy decisions. influence the population’s health in two decades Third, there has been a remarkable improve- time. It highlights the fact that external factors, ment in the incidence of cardio-vascular cata- not just an individual’s health and lifestyle, influ- strophic events, both from myocardial infarction ence a population’s health. These include the nat- and stroke. Many more people are surviving ural environment, climate change, the built envi- those events, but in consequence are getting ronment, political decisions, employment, chang- older and more frail. Maybe quantity of life is es in science and technology (genomics is likely to increasing but quality of life is not increasing at play an important part, for example) – all have an the same rate. Discussion needs to take place impact and have to be taken into account. about how to die well. The bulk of healthcare spend is on the last few Looking forward years of life. So a key question is, what is the qual- There are a number of things we need to do – and ity of those last few years and how many years at do better. First, there is much discussion about lower quality is desirable? It is a really difficult value-based healthcare, however most of the conversation to have – but an important one. debate is in fact about better outcome measures, rather than value. Working in the NHS, physi- Public debate cians do whatever they think is best for the patient. Fourth, there must be a public dialogue about how As it is free at the point of delivery, little thought is to fund our health and social care system. Closer given to cost. Indeed, practitioners are not trained integration of health and social care has to happen to think about value. We need to get much better and will be beneficial. However, the options are at remodelling patient pathways to improve out- rather limited. An hypothecated tax for the NHS is one route or else some co-payment model. Oth- erwise there might have to be some rationing in Maybe quantity of life is increasing, but quality of the broadest sense. That debate needs to happen if we are going to life is not increasing at the same rate. Discussion address this challenge in a way that is acceptable needs to take place about how to die well. to the public. ☐

38 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE Focussing our efforts on patient needs Marcel Levi

tive disease management. For example, up to 1% SUMMARY of the population suffers from rheumatoid arthri- tis. Some 20 years ago a majority of patients were • We are living in the golden age of medicine. in wheelchairs – rheumatology was a wheel- • While fewer people are dying of disease, more chair-centred profession. Now there is not a sin- face chronic morbidity and multi-morbidity. gle wheelchair to be seen in rheumatology wait- • Medical advances are expensive – it would be ing rooms: new drugs mean that virtually all naïve to ignore this. patients are in remission, they will not have the Professor Marcel Levi is • While specialism is necessary given the debilitating effects of this disease and, indeed, Chief Executive of University advances in biomedical science, a generalist they can actually be cured. College London Hospitals approach to training is needed to ensure When I was a medical student viral hepatitis NHS Foundation Trust. UCLH practitioners can relate to patients with multiple is one of the most complex C did not even exist – it was called ‘non-A, non-B medical conditions. NHS Trusts in the UK, hepatitis’. Now it has been identified, it can be serving a large and diverse • Research needs to be better aligned with patient diagnosed and treated very simply with a pill population. It provides needs. without any adverse effect in only three months. academically-led acute and specialist services to people While the treatment is extremely expensive, from the local area, as well more than 98% of patients with hepatitis C can be as patients from across the hile we are right to celebrate the suc- cured nowadays. The list of similar improve- UK and overseas. UCLH cess of medicine and medical science, ments is endless. has a turnover of £882 million. It has contracts if we do not implement change then It is an illusion, though, to think that this is with over 70 primary care Wwe will increasingly be the victims of our own suc- going to be a free ride. It is going to be more expen- trust commissioning bodies cess. I am personally convinced that we are living sive than it was and it would be naïve to ignore this. to provide services, seeing in the golden age of medicine. Advances in molec- over 950,000 outpatients and admitting over 156,000 ular genetics, cell biology, physics and other areas Other challenges inpatients each year. are being translated into better diagnosis, manage- I have only been in this country for a few months ment and treatment of a whole range of diseases. and one of my biggest surprises has been the very For the first time in the history of mankind, slow and almost reluctant approach to training better medicine leads to longer life. Longevity has more nurses, doctors and healthcare profession- up to now been attributable to better hygiene and als. The UK is the only country in western Europe social care, but better medical care is now having that is not self-sufficient in this regard. That is an impact as well. When I was a resident in inter- quite paradoxical because here we have fantastic nal medicine, doing my cardiology rotation, universities and the best hospitals in Europe. patients that were admitted with myocardial There is an excellent world-class training envi- infarction had a risk of not leaving the hospital ronment but we are actually not training the peo- alive of 15-17%. Now, this has dropped to less ple that the country needs. than 0.5%! There are many other examples that There are also concerns about the way our could be given. healthcare professionals are trained. There is Now, though, we are faced with new challeng- nothing wrong with sub-specialisation given the es because we are converting mortality into increase in biomedical knowledge: we need peo- chronic morbidity and even chronic multi-mor- ple who know a great deal about specific areas in bidity. While an individual may be much less like- medicine. The biggest risk, though, is that while ly to die of infectious diseases, cardio-vascular specialists know a lot about their own areas, they illness and cancer, there is much greater risk of contracting a degenerative disease like dementia but also other issues such as impaired vision and One of my biggest surprises has been the very slow impaired hearing. Medical advances have not only increased life and almost reluctant approach to training more expectancy, but have also resulted in more effec- nurses, doctors and healthcare professionals. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 39 HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE KZENON / SHUTTERATOCK.COM / KZENON The challenges of the next few decades will include geriatric medicine

may not pay much attention to other aspects. Research tends to focus much more on very Some of our colleagues are becoming so focussed rare diseases, or diseases that affect only relatively on their favourite organ or favourite cell or favou- few people. This effort is not crucial in terms of rite cancer that they do not care about all the other the overall burden of disease. So there is an imbal- diseases that their patients have. So those patients ance between the money we invest in research and have to travel from one specialist to another and the burden of disease that is common to us. then onto the next, with all the ensuing problems I am very involved in research on sepsis which of communication and interaction between all is a serious infection. People have been looking these specialists. for a drug for sepsis for decades now. There have The health professionals of the future may be been a couple of candidates and some very large sub-specialists, but they should have a generalist trials. However, the real progress has not been in approach to medical problems. I see this as an finding a drug against sepsis, instead it was in the important trend. control group! There has been a steep decrease in the mortality rates of placebo-treated patients. It Research turns out that this has nothing to do with better I find myself wondering whether our research antibiotics or a better understanding of infectious effort actually matches the burden of disease and disease. Instead, it has everything to do with bet- my conclusion is that it does not. The challenges ter intensive care medicine, better organ preserva- of the next few decades are going to be geriatric tion in those patients with organ failure, better medicine and the increase in acute medicine, but nursing, better cardiovascular protection and so these are not the areas we do much research in. on. Steady progress and innovation is more important than a big breakthrough! We need to change the focus of our research Research tends to focus much more on very rare to better address the healthcare needs of the future. Yet we should still remember that we are diseases, or diseases that affect only relatively few celebrating a real success story – we should not people. So there is an imbalance. forget that. ☐

40 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE The debate Issues raised in the debate following the main presentations included dialogue with industry, public debate about funding, integrating technology into care pathways, and skills and training.

focus on effective treatment during preg- housing make people more resilient in fighting nancy and infancy could help deliver a infections. However, excessive public responses healthier old age. The benefits of a e.g. to SARS show that there remains a problem of reductionA in smoking are clear but obesity is a perception. less tractable problem. An effective dialogue with UK health outcomes have improved signifi- the food industry on the development of healthi- cantly in recent decades. More resources are er products could deliver significant improve- undoubtedly required and there is scope for great- ments without threatening the commercial via- er integration of health and social care systems. ☐ bility of food producers.

Dementia issues Dementia cases have reduced in the last 20 years, though there is some increase in mild disability. Drugs are not yet making a significant difference but public concerns have driven a focus on drug discovery when increased community support for families managing dementia would be more valuable. If the current model of social care is not sustainable for the coming decades, there must be an open debate on the respective roles of the state and family support. The public is arguably ahead of the profession in valuing quality of life over duration when there is a trade-off to be evaluated. Medical schools need to encourage good communication skills in their students and also teach more about the links between physical and mental health. Artificial intelligence may help to improve pathology and identification of tumours, but is unlikely to replace patient interaction – machines do not deliver care. The integration of technology into a whole care pathway is important. There is also scope to COLDWELL DOUG use process engineering skills to improve NHS Strategic choices must be made about future medical skillsets efficiency.

Medical training FURTHER INFORMATION The supply of doctors remains a concern. It may be premature to talk of a wholesale movement out Enhancing the use of scientific evidence to judge the potential benefits of the profession, but more needs to be done to and harms of medicines stimulate the next generation to look at medical www.acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/44970096 careers. Given the time needed to fully train a doctor, strategic choices should be made now Improving the health of the public by 2040: optimising the research about the skills likely to be needed in 20 years’ environment for a healthier, fairer future. time. Adjusting skillsets is easier in the case of www.acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/41399-5807581429f81.pdf nurses or care workers who generally have a shorter training period. How can we make better decisions about medicines? There is a smaller risk of global pandemics www.sciencemediacentre.org/how-can-we-make-better-decisions- than in the past. Better sanitation, nutrition and about‑medicines

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 41 EVENTS

Presentations and audio from all Foundation events are available at www.foundation.org.uk

The impact of demographic and medical How can skill levels be raised to meet the Health, happiness and wellbeing: trends on the health and social care needs of society and the economy? supporting the transition from adolescence systems of the UK 1 March 2017 to adulthood 21 Jun 2017 Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, 26 October 2016 Professor Chris Whitty CB FMedSci, Chief Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Dr Joanne McLean, Research and Scientific Adviser, Department of Health, Government Office for Science Development Manager, Scotland, Mental Deputy Government Chief Scientific Sir Adrian Smith FRS, Chair of the Smith Health Foundation Adviser Inquiry into mathematics education for 16 Dr Helen Sweeting, Reader, MRC/CSO Sir Robert Lechler PMedSci, President, to 18 year olds and Vice Chancellor of the Social and Political Health Sciences Unit, Academy of Medical Sciences University of London University of Glasgow Professor Marcel Levi, Chief Executive, Dame Judith Hackitt DBE FREng, Chair, Lord Layard FBA, Director, Wellbeing University College London Hospitals NHS EEF (formerly the Engineering Employers’ Programme, Centre for Economic Foundation Trust Federation) Performance, London School of Economics Stephen Metcalfe MP, Chair, House of and Political Science Making cities work - the application of Commons Select Committee on Science and Catherine Calderwood FRCP, Chief technology, science and infrastructure Technology [Panellist] Medical Officer for Scotland, Scottish improvements to create a place where Government [Panellist] citizens wish to live Making good use of science and innovation 24 May 2017 in overseas development programmes The National Flood Resilience Review: the 14 December 2016 lessons learned from recent flood events in Professor The Lord Mair CBE FRS FREng, the United Kingdom Sir Kirby Laing Professor of Civil Professor Charlotte Watts FMedSci, Chief 12 October 2016 Engineering, Department of Engineering, Scientific Adviser and Director Research University of Cambridge and Evidence Division, Department for Professor Dame Julia Slingo DBE FRS, International Development Chief Scientist, Met Office Tom Saunders, Principal Researcher, Jon Ridley, Head, M-KOPA Labs, M-KOPA Dr Doug Wilson, Director, Scientific & International Innovation, Nesta Solar Evidence Services, Environment Agency Councillor Peter Marland, Leader, Milton Rowan Douglas CBE, Chief Executive, Simon Warsop, Chief Underwriting Officer, Keynes Council Capital, Science & Policy Practice and Chair, Personal Lines, Aviva What constitutes an effective industrial Willis Research Network, Willis Towers Professor Charles Godfray CBE FRS, Chair, strategy for the UK? Watson Defra Science Advisory Council and University of Oxford 10 May 2017 The opportunities for and threats to the Professor Bas Jonkman, Professor of Professor Graeme Reid, Specialist Adviser research and innovation communities from Integral Hydraulic Engineering, Delft to the House of Lords Select Committee on Brexit University of Technology Science and Technology 16 November 2016 Katharine Hammond, Director, Civil Professor Dame Ann Dowling DBE FRS Sir Venki Ramakrishnan PRS FMedSci, Contingencies Secretariat, Cabinet Office FREng, President, Royal Academy of President, The Royal Society Engineering Professor Louise Richardson FRSE, Vice- What is the value to the economy of the Andrew Barker, Head of Investor Relations, Chancellor, University of Oxford finance and insurance sectors? International Airlines Group The Rt Hon the Lord Willetts, House of 6 July 2016 Anthony Lilley OBE, Chief Executive and Lords Anne Richards CVO CBE FRSE, Chief Chief Creative Officer, Magic Lantern Dr Hermann Hauser KBE FRS FREng, Executive, M&G Investments Dr Andrew Harter FREng FIET FBCS, Co-Founder, Amadeus Capital Partners John Nelson, Chairman, Lloyd’s of London Chair, Cambridge Network and Founder [Panellist] Professor John Kay CBE FRSE FBA, and CEO, RealVNC [Panellist] Professor Madeleine Atkins CBE, Chief Economist and Financial Times Columnist Executive, Higher Education Funding What needs to be done to meet urban air Council for England [Panellist] How should universities and Research quality targets and what are the Councils proactively respond to gender bias consequences if the targets are not met? The vision for UK Research and Innovation in success rates in grant applications? 26 Apr 2017 (UKRI) 22 June 2016 Eliott Treharne, Air Quality Manager, 9 November 2016 Professor Paul Boyle CBE FBA FRSE, Greater London Authority Sir John Kingman KCB, Chair, UK Research President and Vice-Chancellor, University Dr Stephen Bryce, Vice-President, Fuels and Innovation, Department of Business, of Leicester Technology, Shell Projects and Technology Energy and Industrial Strategy Professor Henrietta O’Connor, Deputy Professor Frank Kelly, Professor of Professor Dame Julia Goodfellow DBE Head of College of Social Science, Arts and Environmental Health, King’s College FMedSci, President, Universities UK and Humanities and Professor of Sociology, London Vice-Chancellor, University of Kent University of Leicester Dr Christa Hasenkopf, Chief Executive and Phil Smith, Chair, Cisco UK & Ireland, Chair, Linda Holliday, Director of Capacity and Skills Co-Founder, OpenEQ [Panellist] Innovate UK and Chair, The Tech Partnership Development, Medical Research Council

42 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk FST JOURNAL– INDEX TO VOLUME 21

Issue No 1 May 2013 Infrastructure Issue No 4 July 2014 Editorial Taking a long term approach to infrastructure Editorial Feeding, fuelling and healing the world Sir John Armitt 21 Working together for the good of humanity George Freeman MP 3 Creating an effective framework for delivering Lord Stern 3 infrastructure Professor Brian Collins 22 Planning for the future Tim Yeo MP 24 Marine technologies Scientific advice to government Connectivity – the glue that drives innovation Addressing the challenges of the 21st century Professor Ralph Rayner 5 Sir John Beddington 4 Medical research The contribution of marine science and The issue of health Dame Sally Davies 7 From simple organisms to the human genome technology to the economy The role of the Government Chief Scientific Dr Sydney Brenner 26 Professor Ed Hill 6 Advisor Sir Mark Walport 9 Priorities for medical research A time of challenge and opportunity Professor Sir Paul Nurse 27 Rick Spinrad 8 Industrial strategy The MRC - an historical perspective Sir Keith Peters 29 Bovine tuberculosis Embracing a new industrial future A farmer’s perspective Adam Quinney 10 Sir John Parker 10 The current status of the fight against bovine TB Systems thinking and industrial strategy Obituary Dr Miles Parker 11 Professor Alan Hughes 11 The Earl of Shannon 31 Culling versus vaccination How can Government promote growth through Professor Rosie Woodroffe 12 innovation? David Willetts MP 13 Issue No 3 May 2014 Clarifying points of agreement and disagreement Editorial Professor Chris Gaskell 13 Mid-sized businesses Misconduct in scientific research Agricultural technologies Unleashing the potential of mid-sized businesses Sir John Enderby 3 A strategy for the future of UK agriculture Tera Allas 15 George Freeman MP 15 Strengthening links between business and Communicating risk Taking a consistent approach to Government universities Professor Luke Georghiou 17 Communicating risk and uncertainty in science procurement Dr Peter Bonfield 16 Engaging business potential and research Sir Mark Walport 5 Ensuring food for the future Lord Haskins 18 expertise Richard Burslem 18 The commercial management of risk The potential benefits Dr Stephen Axford 19 Tom Bolt 6 UK-China partnerships Africa Whose risk is it anyway? Judith Hackitt 8 Identifying the opportunities for collaboration The greatest scientific challenge of our Professor Tony Cheetham 20 generation? Professor Christopher Whitty 20 Stimulating growth A view from China Michael Kwok 22 The contribution of Higher Education to the The risks and opportunities of partnership France regional economy Professor Colin Riordan 10 Professor Robin Grimes 23 The scientific agenda in France The key to economic success Mme Geneviève Fioraso 23 Sir Leszek Borysiewicz 11 Antimicrobial resistance Confronting the threat of drug-resistant disease The vital importance of focussing on the Issue No 2 October 2013 Dame Sally Davies 25 customer Sir Terry Matthews 12 New approaches to an urgent problem Editorial Dr Jeremy Farrar 26 Putting science at the heart of the economy Learned societies Taking practical steps to promote drug Dr Julian Huppert MP 3 Raising the bar Professor Jeremy Watson, development Professor Patrick Vallance 28 Patrick Kniveton, Professor Tim Broyd, Open access Professor John Uff 14 Climate change To act now or to wait? Sir Mark Walport, David Sustainable access to research excellence Davies MP, Professor Jim Skea, Peter Lilley MP 30 Dame Janet Finch 4 Digital participation Achieving open access How can the benefits of digital access be made Issue No 5 March 2015 Professor Douglas Kell 5 available to everyone? Editorial Making open access work for the benefit of all Professor Alan Alexander 16 ‘An Act to promote the progress of useful Arts’ Steven Hall 7 A role for local government in delivering the Sir John Enderby 4 digital agenda Lorraine McMillan 17 Public data Representation and identity in a digital world Science and Innovation strategy Ensuring access to the data behind the assertion Dr Alan Blackwell 19 A strategy for growth Professor Geoffrey Boulton 9 The Rt Hon Greg Clark MP 6 The power of ‘open’ - the fifth paradigm Decarbonisation Delivering a prosperous and resilient economy Dame Ann Dowling 8 Sir Nigel Shadbolt 11 Counting the costs of decarbonisation Science as part of the growth agenda Open access, open data and citizen science Dr James Smith 21 Dr Mike Lynch 10 David Willetts MP 13 Creating an affordable energy system for the UK Dr David Clarke 23 The Hauser review Future cities Delivering a low carbon future The translation of research Growth, innovation and city planning Baroness Verma 25 Dr Hermann Hauser 13 Steve Quartermain 15 Facilitating technology translation in key market Closing the gap between concept and Research and technology areas Simon Edmonds 16 The Catapults – building the skills base commercialisation Sir David King 16 Maximising UK strengths in research, innovation Adrian Allen 18 Building the future out of today’s reality and Higher Education Sir John O’Reilly 26 Richard Bellingham 18 The criteria for measuring value Ben Ritchie 27 Innovation in Scotland How will policy shape the cities of the future? How Higher Education can deliver value to UK What makes a good science policy? Sir Mark Walport 19 business Professor Geoff Rodgers 29 Professor Muffy Calder 21

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk July 2017, Volume 22(1) 43 FST JOURNAL– INDEX TO VOLUME 21

Changing the innovation landscape Making the most of the opportunities Is a paradigm shift occurring in accessing, Professor Alice Brown 23 Professor Philip Nelson 10 analysing and protecting data? A time of challenge and opportunity Communicating clearly to Government and Unlocking the potential of open data Anne Richards 26 the community Gareth Davies 12 Sir Nigel Shadbolt 6 Technological advances in the use of data Transport resilience Bolstering research partnerships Dr Mike Lynch 8 Making our transport systems more resilient to Creating the climate to excel at innovation The case against a paradigm shift weather Richard Brown 30 Dame Ann Dowling 15 Professor David Hand 10 The consequences of changing climate for Sustaining a successful innovation and An alternative approach to data governance transport systems Doug Johnson 32 collaboration framework Sir Peter Gregson 17 Baroness O’Neill 12 Building tomorrow’s railway today How can smaller businesses be helped to Jerry England 35 participate? Eric Hawthorn 19 Valuing the financial and insurance sectors of the UK economy Science and society Closing the UK/US productivity gap Financial services are an essential part of our How well do we measure engagement? 38 The role of innovation in transforming modern society Anne Richards 14 productivity Dr Ruth McKernan 22 The future of the insurance market Issue No 6 July 2015 Rebooting productivity policy John Nelson 16 Editorial Professor Jonathan Haskel 25 A sector still in need of reform Science and technology in a successful economy The importance of collaboration Professor John Kay 18 Lord Jenkin 3 Tony Harper 28 Bridging the gender gap in research Ebola Meeting Scotland’s energy challenge Professor Paul Boyle, Professor Henrietta An integrated campaign around a focussed The benefits of renewable energy O’Connor, Linda Holliday 22 strategy Professor Christopher Whitty 4 Phil Boswell 31 Learning the lessons of the Ebola outbreak Scotland’s position in the energy market Issue No 10 March 2017 Dr Ripley Ballou 8 Iain Conn 33 Editorial A view from the frontline A role for shale gas Gary Haywood 34 Developing an Industrial Strategy for the UK Dr Oliver Johnson 10 Balancing our energy portfolio Earl Selborne 4 Professor Rebecca Lunn 36 Science and values The creation of UK Research and Innovation Bridging the gap between scientific and policy The future of the Arctic A champion for research and innovation judgements Sir Mark Walport 14 Responding to a changing Arctic Lord Teverson 40 Sir John Kingman 6 Policies can change as evidence evolves Increasing our engagement Jane Rumble 42 Science is at the heart of the economy Professor Angela McLean 17 Charting the changes in the Arctic ecosystem Dame Julia Goodfellow 7 Creating trust in the statistics that underpin Dame Julia Slingo 44 UKRI’s potential – a business perspective decision-making John Pullinger 18 Phil Smith 10 Issue No 8 June 2016 Haldane in the 21st century Editorial The implications of Brexit for UK research The Haldane Principle – an historical In defence of doubt Sir Paul Nurse 4 Planning for our future prosperity perspective Lord Hennessy 21 Sir Venki Ramakrishnan 14 Adapting Haldane for the 21st century Threats and opportunities for UK research Lord Rees 22 The pros and cons of EU membership A crucial question – how to promote science and Professor Louise Richardson 16 Balancing good science with good government Building the future of science and innovation David Willetts MP 25 R&D Lord Hennessy 6 British science should look outwards to the world Lord Willetts 18 Viscount Ridley 8 Environment Improving national resilience to flooding Making sense of the environment The benefits of membership to UK science Dame Jocelyn Bell Burnell 11 Lessons learned from recent flood events in the Professor Duncan Wingham 28 UK Dame Julia Slingo 22 Collaborating to create a better future The business of the environment Dealing with extremes Dr Doug Wilson 25 Sir Emyr Jones Parry 12 Professor Simon Pollard 29 Looking for a long term strategy for flood The value of EU membership Resolving the tension between resource resistance Simon Warsop 27 extraction and environmental protection House of Lords Select Committee report 15 Lord Oxburgh 31 The transition from adolescence to adulthood Using science to authenticate, verify and assure How effective are universal interventions for The potential of forensic science Renewable energy Scottish young people? Dr Joanne McLean 31 Sir Mark Walport 16 Transforming the world’s energy systems Evaluating interventions with vulnerable Forensic science beyond the courtroom Sir David King 34 adolescents Dr Helen Sweeting 34 Dr Derek Craston 18 Making the most of opportunities Improving mental health for all age groups The power of the Medici Effect Dr Bernie Bulkin 36 Lord Layard 37 New technologies for a low-carbon future Professor Sue Black 20 Ed Heartney 38 Meeting the challenge of new technology Maximising the contribution of science to Baroness Neville-Jones 22 international development Issue No 7 March 2016 Making good use of science and innovation Editorial Building infrastructure for the UK Professor Charlotte Watts 40 Challenges facing the global community Delivering infrastructure effectively and New ways of getting technology to people that Sir John Enderby 4 efficiently Tony Meggs 24 need it Jon Ridley 43 Creating the framework for effective Connecting institutions at national and global Spending Review infrastructure delivery Lord Adonis 26 levels Rowan Douglas 44 Balancing sound public finances and great public Infrastructure as the nursery of tomorrow’s skill services 6 base Terry Morgan 29 Data protection regulation The shape of things to come Jonathan Bamford 46 Re-engineering the Research Councils Issue No 9 July 2016 Putting research at the heart of Government Editorial Obituary Sir Paul Nurse 7 Science after the Brexit vote Lord Willetts 4 Lord Jenkin of Roding 47

44 July 2017, Volume 22(1) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk MAJOR SUPPORTERS IN 2016/2017

A Innovate UK Society for General Microbiology Aberdeen Asset Management Institute of Biomedical Science Society of Maritime Industries AIRTO Ltd Institute of Materials, Minerals & Mining Society of Operations Engineers Arts and Humanities Research Council Institute of Mathematics and its Sovcomflot (UK) Ltd AstraZeneca Applications Atkins Limited Institution of Chemical Engineers STEMNET B Invoke Capital T BAE Systems plc Tarmac J BCS, The Chartered Institute for IT Japan Society for the Promotion of The Institution of Engineering and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Science Technology Research Council Johnson Matthey Plc The Peter Jost Foundation BP International Ltd BPE K The Kohn Foundation Keele University The Lloyd’s Register Foundation BRE Group King’s College London The Medical Schools Council British Academy Knowledge Transfer Network Limited British Geological Survey The Nautical Institute L Brunel University Landscape Institute The Royal Academy of Engineering BSI Group Lloyd’s of London The Royal Commission for the Exhibition C London School of Hygiene & Tropical of 1851 Cambridge Network Medicine The Royal Society Canterbury Christ Church University London South Bank University The Wellcome Trust Cardiff University M Transport Systems Catapult Chartered Institute of Plumbing and M&G Investments Heating Engineering U City & Guilds of London Institute Medical Research Council University Alliance Met Office City University London University College London Cogent Skills Ltd N National Oceanography Centre University of Aberdeen Comino Foundation University of Birmingham Costain National Physical Laboratory University of Bristol Cranfield University Natural Environment Research Council Natural History Museum University of Cambridge D Department for Environment, Food & Network Rail University of Chichester Rural Affairs Nottingham Trent University University of Dundee Department of Health P University of East Anglia E Parliamentary and Scientific Committee University of Edinburgh Economic and Social Research Council Plymouth University University of Glasgow EEF Premmit Associates University of Hull Energy Institute Public Health England Engineering & Physical Sciences University of Kent Research Council Q University of Leeds Environment Agency Queen Mary, University of London ERA Foundation Queen’s University Belfast University of Leicester University of Nottingham G R Genomics England Risk Solutions University of Reading GlaxoSmithKline RMS University of Sheffield H Rolls-Royce plc University of Southampton Haskel Family Foundation Royal Geographical Society (with The University of Strathclyde Heads of University Centres of IBG) Biomedical Sciences Royal Society of Biology University of Warwick Health and Safety Executive Royal Society of Chemistry University of Wolverhampton High Value Manufacturing Catapult Royal Society of Medicine W Higher Education Funding Council for Willis Towers Watson England S Science and Technology Facilities Winton Philanthropies I Council ICP London Smith Institute for Industrial X Imperial College London Mathematics and System Engineering XL Catlin

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