journal The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology fstVolume 22 Number 8 November 2020 www.foundation.org.uk

Editorial Dr Pete Thompson: Measurement with confidence

Science advice and policy choices Dame Angela McLean: Modelling as a route to understanding Sir David King: Being open and transparent about science Sir Mark Walport: Advice and policy making in an emergency

Coronavirus and the environment Professor Rob Jackson: An opportunity to protect the environment Dr Kimberly Nicholas: Doing right for the planet and for humanity Dr Stephanie Wray: Addressing climate change and biodiversity loss Peter Betts: Revisiting and strengthening targets agreed in Paris Professor Gideon Henderson: Applying the evidence to future policy making

Industrial supply chains after the pandemic Juliette White: Creating agile, robust and responsive supply chains Professor Lenny Koh: The priorities of the post-Covid supply chain Professor John Loughhead: The importance of resilience COUNCIL AND TRUSTEES

VICE-PRESIDENTS CHIEF EXECUTIVE The Earl of Selborne GBE FRS Gavin Costigan Dr Dougal Goodman OBE FREng COUNCIL AND TRUSTEE BOARD Chair Professor Polina Bayvel CBE FRS FREng The Rt Hon the Lord Willetts* FRS Sir John Beddington CMG FRS FRSE HonFREng Mr Justice Birss President, The Royal Society Sir Drummond Bone FRSE Sir Venki Ramakrishnan PRS FMedSci Professor Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP FMedSci FLSW DL President, Royal Academy of Engineering The Lord Broers FRS FREng HonFMedSci Sir Jim McDonald FRSE FREng FIET Sir Donald Brydon* CBE President, British Academy Sir Anthony Cleaver HonFREng Sir David Cannadine PBA Sir Gordon Duff FRCP FRCPE FMedSci FRSE President, The Academy of Medical Sciences Dr Paul Golby CBE FREng Sir Robert Lechler PMedSci The Lord Haskel President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh Professor The Lord Hennessy of Nympsfield FBA Dame Anne Glover DBE CBE FRSE FRS Dr Julian Huppert President, The Learned Society of Wales Professor Sir David King ScD FRS HonFREng Professor Hywel Thomas CBE FREng FRS PLSW MAE The Lord Krebs Kt FRS FMedSci Hon DSc Chair, EngineeringUK Professor The Lord Mair CBE FRS FREng Malcolm Brinded CBE FREng Dr Sarah Main* President, The Science Council Dr Julie Maxton* CBE Professor Sir Keith Burnett CBE FRS Stephen Metcalfe MP Executive Chair, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Jonathan Neale UKRI The Rt Hon the Baroness Neville-Jones DCMG Professor Dame Lynn Gladden DBE FRS FREng Sir Paul Nurse FRS FMedSci HonFREng Executive Chair, Economic and Social Research Council, UKRI Chi Onwurah* MP Professor Jennifer Rubin The Lord Oxburgh KBE FRS HonFREng Executive Chair, Research England, UKRI The Lord Rees of Ludlow OM Kt FRS David Sweeney The Baroness Sharp of Guildford Executive Chair, Arts and Humanities Research Council, UKRI Dr Hayaatun Sillem* CBE FIET Professor Andrew Thompson Professor Sir Adrian Smith FRS Executive Chair, Science and Technology Facilities Council, UKRI Phil Smith CBE Professor Mark Thomson Professor Sir Michael Sterling FREng Executive Chair, Medical Research Council, UKRI Sir Hugh Taylor KCB Professor Fiona Watt FRS FMedSci The Lord Trees MRCVS FMedSci HonFRSE Executive Chair, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research The Baroness Wilcox Council, UKRI Sir Peter Williams CBE FRS FREng Professor Melanie Welham The Lord Willis of Knaresborough Executive Chair, Natural Environment Research Council, UKRI Sir Duncan Wingham Honorary Treasurer Interim Executive Chair, Innovate UK, UKRI John Neilson* Dr Ian Campbell Honorary Secretary Chair, Steering Board, UK Space Agency Patrick McHugh* Dr Sally Howes OBE

*Trustee Board Member

The Foundation for Science and Technology FST Journal was redesigned in 2015 by IOP Publishing’s Design Studio, under the 22 Greencoat Place art direction of Andrew Giaquinto. IOP Publishing provides publications through London SW1P 1DX which leading-edge scientific research is distributed worldwide and is central to the Institute of Physics, a not‑for-profit society. Tel: 020 7321 2220 Email: [email protected] FST Journal publishes summaries of all the talks given at its meetings. Full audio recordings are available at www.foundation.org.uk Neither the Foundation nor the Editor is responsible for the opinions of the Editor Dr Dougal Goodman OBE FREng contributors to FST Journal.

Production Editor Simon Napper © 2020 The Foundation for Science and Technology Layout Simon Clarke ISSN 1475-1704 Charity Number: 00274727 Company Number: 01327814 CONTENTS

journal fstVolume 22 Number 8 November 2020 THE COUNCIL AND TRUSTEES OF THE FOUNDATION Inside front cover

journal The Journal of The Foundation for Science and Technology fstVolume 22 Number 8 November 2020 www.foundation.org.uk UPDATE Roger Penrose is awarded Nobel Prize UK Space Agency to track space junk 2 Editorial • • Dr Pete Thompson: Measurement with confidence

Science advice and policy choices Modelling the path of megastorms Project creates AI tools to optimise development policies Dame Angela McLean: Modelling as a route to understanding • • Sir David King: Being open and transparent about science Sir Mark Walport: Advice and policy making in an emergency

Coronavirus and the environment UKRI funds cutting-edge recycling Keeping safe and informed online Professor Rob Jackson: An opportunity to protect the environment • • Dr Kimberly Nicholas: Doing right for the planet and for humanity Dr Stephanie Wray: Addressing climate change and biodiversity loss Peter Betts: Revisiting and strengthening targets agreed in Paris Professor Gideon Henderson: Applying the evidence to future policy making Arctic summer set to be ‘ice‑free by 2035’ Industrial supply chains after the pandemic Juliette White: Creating agile, robust and responsive supply chains Professor Lenny Koh: The priorities of the post-Covid supply chain Professor John Loughhead: The importance of resilience FUTURE LEADERS PROGRAMME Building a future in science and innovation 5

THE FOUNDATION Creating an interface for science, innovation and policy 6 GUEST EDITORIAL Measurement with confidence Dr Pete Thompson 7

SCIENCE ADVICE AND POLICY CHOICES Modelling as a route to understanding Dame Angela McLean 9 Being open and transparent about science Sir David King 10 Advice and policy making in an emergency Sir Mark Walport 12

CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT An opportunity to protect the environment Professor Rob Jackson 15 Doing right for the planet and for humanity Dr Kimberly Nicholas 17 Addressing climate change and biodiversity loss Dr Stephanie Wray 19 Revisiting and strengthening targets agreed in Paris Peter Betts 20 Applying the evidence to future policy making Professor Gideon Henderson 22

INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY CHAINS AFTER THE PANDEMIC Creating agile, robust and responsive supply chains Juliette White 24 The priorities of the post-Covid supply chain Professor Lenny Koh 25 The importance of resilience Professor John Loughhead 27

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 1 UPDATE

Roger Penrose is UK Space Agency to track space junk awarded Nobel Prize Seven pioneering projects which will develop new sensor technology Professor Roger Penrose, Emeritus or artificial intelligence to monitor Professor at the Mathematical Institute hazardous space debris have been of the University of Oxford, as well as announced by the UK Space Agency. Honorary Fellow of St John’s College, The UK Space Agency and Ministry Cambridge, and Honorary Doctor of Defence have also announced the next of Cambridge University, has jointly step in their joint initiative to enhance won the 2020 Nobel Prize in Physics the UK’s awareness of events in space. for the discovery that black hole Estimates of the amount of space formation is a robust prediction of the debris in orbit vary, from around 900,000 There may be 160 million pieces of space 3.0), (CC BY-SA VIA WIKIMEDIA COMMONS DAVID.SHIKOMBA general theory of relativity. The Royal pieces of space junk larger than 1cm to debris currently in Earth orbit Swedish Academy of Sciences made the over 160 million orbital objects in total. announcement on 6 October. Only a fraction of this debris can current- between satellites and space debris, and According to the Nobel Prize website: ly be tracked and avoided by working sat- Fujitsu who are combining machine “Penrose used ingenious mathematical ellites. The UK has a significant opportu- learning and quantum inspired pro- methods in his proof that black holes are nity to benefit from the new age of satel- cessing to improve mission planning to a direct consequence of Albert Einstein’s lite megaconstellations – vast networks remove debris. general theory of relativity.” made up of hundreds or even thousands The funding coincides with the sign- Einstein himself did not believe that of spacecraft – so it is more important ing of a partnership agreement between black holes really existed. But in Janu- than ever to effectively track this debris. the Ministry of Defence and UK Space ary 1965, ten years after Einstein’s death, Today’s investments will help bolster Agency to work together on space Penrose proved that black holes really the UK’s capabilities to track this space domain awareness. This civil and mili- can form and described them in detail. junk and monitor the risks of potentially tary collaboration aims to bring together Lord Martin Rees, Astronomer Royal dangerous collisions with satellites or even data and analysis from defence, civil and and a member of the Council of the the crewed International Space Station. commercial space users to better under- Foundation for Science and Technology, Projects backed today include Lift Me stand what is happening in orbit in order said: “Penrose is amazingly original and Off who will develop and test machine to ensure the safety and security of UK inventive, and has contributed creative learning algorithms to distinguish licensed satellites. insights for more than 60 years. It was Penrose, more than anyone else, who Modelling the path of megastorms triggered the renaissance in relativity in the 1960s through his introduction of The results of scientific research will path of these complex weather systems new mathematical techniques.” make it easier to predict the path of some was largely unpredictable. However, a He shares the 2020 Physics Nobel with of the world’s most powerful storms, new study by the UK Centre for Ecology Reinhard Genzel and Andrea Ghez who enabling communities to better protect & Hydrology (UKCEH) has found that developed methods to see through the themselves from severe flooding. land surface conditions frequently affect huge clouds of interstellar gas and dust to Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) the direction and intensity of mega- the centre of the Milky Way. are ‘megastorms’ that affect large parts of storms after they have formed. the world, including Africa, Australia, The research is now helping scientists Asia and the Americas, causing human to develop online tools to better forecast and livestock deaths plus major damage the path and strength of an approaching to infrastructure. storm, which will inform alert systems They can potentially: for communities across Africa, provid- • last from several hours up to two days ing them with up to six hours’ warning. • release energy equivalent to the UK This includes Senegal, where UKCEH is consumption for an entire year working with the national meteorologi- • be bigger than the size of England and cal service, ANACIM, to see how useful travel 1,000 km in distance very short-term forecasts are for local unleash over 100 mm of rainfall in emergency responses. BISWARUP GANGULY (CC VIA WIKIMEDIA -BY-3.0) GANGULY COMMONS BISWARUP • just an hour. Klein C and Taylor CM (2020) Dry soils In Sahelian Africa, these extreme can intensify mesoscale convective systems. storms have tripled in frequency since Proceedings of the National Academy Roger Penrose: “ingenious mathematical the 1980s due to global warming. of Sciences (PNAS). www.pnas.org/ methods” in his work on black holes Until now, it was thought that the content/117/35/21132

2 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk UPDATE

Project creates AI tools to optimise development policies A project led by ESRC-Turing Fellow change, environmental degradation, state governments in Latin America to Omar Guerrero, with his research partner, building resilient infrastructure, creating support the effective prioritisation of their Professor Gonzalo Castañeda of the Center strong institutions, and more. public policies to optimise sustainable for Research and Teaching in Economics Modelling the complex scenarios development. “The results of this proj- in Mexico, has developed a suite of involved in achieving these goals is impos- ect show the potential the Policy Priority analytical tools that can successfully model sible using traditional economics and sta- Inference model has for providing gov- the impact of a variety of policy decisions tistical techniques, notes the Alan Turing ernments with concrete information on on development indicators. Institute. But this is exactly the sort of how to increase the effectiveness of public The United Nation’s Sustainable long-running policy challenge where cut- spending and accelerate the achievement Development Goals (SDGs) aim “to ting-edge data science and artificial intelli- of development goals,” says Annabelle promote prosperity while protecting gence technology can make a huge impact. ­Sulmont, Public Policy Project Coordina- the planet”. These SDGs address the In collaboration with the Uni­ted tor for the UNDP office in Mexico. many global challenges faced by human- Nations Development Programme www.turing.ac.uk/research/impact- ity, such as poverty, inequality, access (UNDP), the technology, called Policy­ stories/supercharging-sustainable- to healthcare and education, climate Priority Inference, is being adopted by development UKRI funds cutting-edge recycling Arctic summer set to Projects to reduce landfill and incineration The technologies include a hydro- be ‘ice‑free by 2035’ of waste plastics and schemes to recycle thermal liquefaction process to convert waste into new, sustainable plastics have waste plastic into chemicals and oils for A new study supports predictions that received a funding boost. use in the manufacture of new plastic, a the Arctic could be free of sea ice by 2035. The UK Research and Innovation thermal cracking procedure to transform High temperatures in the Arctic (UKRI) Industrial Strategy Challenge end-of-life plastics into hydrocarbon oil during the last interglacial – the warm Fund is investing £20 million in four cut- that can be used in plastics production, period around 127,000 years ago – have ting edge recycling plants. and a depolymerising facility that extracts puzzled scientists for decades. Now the These plants will increase the available colour from waste allowing easier reuse. UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate recycling capacity in the UK and expand The funding forms part of UKRI’s model has enabled an international team the range of plastics being recycled, as Smart Sustainable Plastic Packaging of researchers to compare Arctic sea ice opposed to being sent to landfill or incin- (SSPP) challenge, which aims to increase conditions during the last interglacial eration, or exported overseas for disposal. the amount of recyclable plastic pack- with present day. Their findings are The £20 million investment from aging and improve UK productivity in important for improving predictions of the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, plastics, leading to a reduction in plastic future sea ice change. along with over £65 million of industry waste entering the environment. During spring and early summer, investment, represents the largest invest- www.ukri.org/innovation/industrial- shallow pools of water form on the sur- ment the UK has made in plastic packag- strategy-challenge-fund/smart- face of Arctic sea-ice. These ‘melt ponds’ ing recycling technologies. sustainable-plastic-packaging are important for how much sunlight is absorbed by the ice and how much is Keeping safe and informed online reflected back into space. The new Hadley Centre model is the UK’s most advanced A new research centre has developed a The centre brings together research- physical representation of the Earth’s cli- wide range of tools to keep people safe ers from: the universities of Bristol, Edin- mate and a critical tool for climate research and informed online. These include burgh, Bath, King’s College London and and incorporates sea-ice and melt ponds. automated tools to flag online harms in University College London. It will work Using the model to look at Arctic sea social media and a map to identify and with partners across industry, policy and ice during the last interglacial, the team avoid different threat such as fraud or the third sector to develop measures to concludes that the impact of intense disinformation. empower individual citizens regarding springtime sunshine created many melt Researchers at the National Research their privacy and online safety. ponds, which played a crucial role in sea- Centre on Privacy, Harm Reduc- Researchers will explore the differing ice melt. A simulation of the future using tion and Adversarial Influence online online harms to which diverse groups of the same model indicates that the Arctic (REPHRAIN), will also develop new people can be exposed, the effectiveness summer may become sea ice-free by 2035. methods to protect against micro-tar- of privacy and online safety measures, Sea ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial geting, a tactic used to gather data about and how to balance risks while improving supports fast future loss by Guarino MV et individuals, and a Data Advice Bureau to citizens’ ability to participate fully in the al (2020) www.nature.com/articles/ help citizens navigate online spaces safely. growing digital economy. s41558-020-0865-2

fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 3 THE FOUNDATION FUTURE LEADERS ONLINE CONFERENCE 2020

Government, research, industry – looking to the future Join leaders of these three key sectors of our economy in a series of free online sessions. Hear them set out how they see their disciplines developing. These meetings are aimed at early- to mid-career professionals. Come and debate the direction of travel with fellow future leaders. Keynote speakers: Tuesday 17 November Wednesday 18 November Thursday 19 November

Sir Patrick Vallance, Dr Loubna Bouarfa, Steve Rees, Professor Dame Government Chief Founder and CEO, Vice-President for Nancy Rothwell, Scientific Adviser Okra Technologies; Discovery Biology, Vice-Chancellor, AstraZeneca University of Manchester

Taking place from 10.00-12.00 am each morning, these sessions will address vital questions such as: ° How does Government use science? ° How does society encourage innovation in industry? ° What role does a university have in tomorrow’s world?

In addition to the keynote speakers, the panel sessions will feature mid-career professionals who will bring their insights to the discussion. We invite you to add your own contributions to the debate.

For more information, and to register, visit the Foundation’s website: www.foundation.org.uk/Events/Upcoming

The Foundation for Science and Technology is a UK charity, providing an impartial platform for debate of policy issues that have a science, research, technology or innovation element. The Foundation Future Leaders Programme brings together a cohort of mid-career professionals drawn from universities, industry and the civil service to develop links and further their

­understanding of how science and research are conducted, and how they feed into the policy process. (Image credit: from Shutterstock.com) Rawpixel.com FUTURE LEADERS PROGRAMME In late 2019, the Foundation for Science and Technology established a Future Leaders Programme to help early career professionals in public service, industry and research to meet, understand each other’s worlds and build links across their different sectors. Building a future in science and innovation he Foundation Future Leaders programme is approaching the culmination of its first year with Tan online conference in November. Key- note speakers include Government Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Val- lance and the President and Vice-Chan- cellor of Manchester University Dame Nancy Rothwell. Originally envisaged as a single full-day event in central London, it has been reconfigured in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and will now take place as three virtual sessions on successive days in mid-November. More details on the page opposite. For many years, the Foundation for Science and Technology has provided a Visiting the Diamond Synchrotron, Harwell Science Campus, December 2019. neutral venue for discussion about ­science, technology and innovation. It added feature was to focus on the career found at: www.foundation.org.uk/ has offered a forum for senior represen- paths of current leaders in these areas, Future-Leaders. Once again, we are hop- tatives of different economic sectors to which might stimulate ideas for the pro- ing to bring together a dynamic group of come together, network and debate gramme participants about their own young leaders from government, indus- ­current topics. future progression. try and research that can work together Visits were arranged to Harwell, The and learn how to make lasting links with A continuing role Wellcome Trust and the Palace of West- other professionals across different eco- For the Foundation to play a continuing minster to explore how different parts of nomic sectors. We are hoping to get under role in policy-making and industrial for- our economy work. When the lockdown way early in the New Year. mation, it must interact with successive began the meetings moved online, so The 2021 programme will draw on generations of those actively involved in members of the programme were still the insights of this first pilot year. The making those decisions, both today and able to benefit from discussions with experience of running a series of events in the years to come. For that reason, senior personnel in the Royal Society of and encouraging networking in the securing engagement from a younger Edinburgh, GSK and others. shadow of Covid-19 means that next generation of industrial managers, civil The November conference will show- year’s activities can go ahead as a judi- servants and researchers is crucial. The case the interactions between the differ- cious mix of online and – when appro- establishment of the Foundation Future ent parts of the UK’s science and innova- priate – face-to-face events. Leaders programme in 2019 was a tion landscape. Each session will include The wider Foundation community response to that challenge. members of the current programme and have already benefited from the Founda- The programme brought together is aimed at their peers across the country. tion Future Leaders programme. One of its early- and mid-career professionals features is to involve these younger leaders from different parts of the economy – Next year in the main Foundation events where they specifically the civil service, the wider The Foundation is now starting to recruit can network with established players in the public sector, industry and research – to for next year’s programme, Applications fields of science and innovation while share insights and experiences, and to from interested individuals are being offering their own insights and aspirations enable networking which could contin- accepted from the beginning of Novem- into the discussions. They have become a ue after the formal programme ends. An ber. More details of how to apply can be regular feature in FST events. ☐ fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 5 THE FOUNDATION Evening events debating key topics in science, technology and policy are one aspect of the Foundation’s activities. Others are described on the FST website. Creating an interface for science, innovation and policy he Foundation is developing its website as a resource which RECENT PODCASTS brings together a range of differ- Tent activities. As well as records of the Chi Onwurah MP, Shadow Minister for Science, Research and Digital talks and presentations given at its major How government draws on scientific advice and the use of science during the Covid-19 events, it houses the online edition of pandemic. FST Journal. Newer developments www.foundation.org.uk/Podcasts/2020/Chi-Onwurah-MP-Science-and-Politics include regular podcasts and blogs. Tom McNeil, Strategic Adviser to the West Midlands Police and Crime Commissioner Podcasts The use of Artificial Intelligence in policing. The Foundation for Science and Tech- www.foundation.org.uk/Podcasts/2020/Tom-McNeil,-Strategic-Advisor-to-the-West- nology podcast is a one-to-one discus- Midlands sion exploring aspects of science, tech- nology and innovation, and links to pol- Professor Judith Petts CBE, Vice-Chancellor, University of Plymouth icy. Lasting around 20 minutes, the pod- Preparing for the new academic year in times of Covid. casts can bring out in more depth issues www.foundation.org.uk/Podcasts/2020/Professor-Judith-Petts-CBE-University- covered in our events, along with one-off teaching-dur interviews on topics of interest. In September 2020, for example, Pro- Dr Michael Short, Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Trade fessor Sir Venki Ramakrishnan, President The role of science and evidence in international trade. of the Royal Society, discussed the state of www.foundation.org.uk/Podcasts/2020/Dr-Michael-Short-Science-and-evidence-in- UK science, science advice to the UK internati Government during the coronavirus pan- demic, and how Brexit might affect UK Professor Richard Jones, Professor of Materials Physics and Innovation Policy, science. The podcast can be found at: University of Manchester www.foundation.org.uk/Pod- Variation of R&D intensity across the UK and the potential for ‘Levelling Up’ of R&D. casts/2020/Professor-Sir-Venki-Ra- www.foundation.org.uk/Podcasts/2020/Professor-Richard-Jones-R-D-Roadmap-and- makrishnan,-President-of-the Levelling

Blogs Dr Stuart Fancey, Director of Research and Innovation, Scottish Funding Council The Foundation for Science and Tech- R&D in Scotland and implications of UK Government’s R&D Roadmap. nology blog site publishes weekly blog www.foundation.org.uk/Podcasts/2020/Dr-Stuart-Fancey-The-R-D-Roadmap-and- posts ­discussing and exploring different implications aspects of science, technology and inno- vation, and links to policy. Individuals Stephen Phipson, Chief Executive, MakeUK write between 700-1,200 words about Skills resilience, retraining at work, and the role of MakeUK. their topic of expertise, often linking to www.foundation.org.uk/Podcasts/2020/Stephen-Phipson,-MakeUK-Skills-resilience our upcoming or recent events. In September 2020, for example, Tom McNeil, Strategic Adviser to the West The blog post can be found here: The podcasts can bring Midlands Police & Crime Commission- www.foundation.org.uk/Blog/2020/ er, discussed the emergence of predictive The-emergence-of-predictive-polic- out in more depth issues policing. He explained the West Mid- ing-–-the-nationa ☐ covered in our events, lands Police’s approach to AI policing along with one-off which includes establishing a transpar- All FST blogs and podcasts can be found at: ent data ethics committee. www.foundation.org.uk interviews.

6 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk GUEST EDITORIAL Metrology, the science of measurement, enables innovation across most, if not all sectors, from health to energy, the environment, advanced manufacturing and digital. Measurement with confidence Pete Thompson

he National Physical Laboratory (NPL) tion dosimetry for cancer therapy. Our scientists delivers world-class measurement exper- and engineers contributed to the ventilator chal- tise and is one of six laboratories that lenge and also provided data analysis to the Royal Tmake up the National Measurement System. This College of General Practitioners Research and measurement infrastructure is the invisible glue Surveillance Centre to help them produce their that binds together science and technology and regular updates on communicable and respirato- enables progress. ry diseases for Public Health England. It is akin to the road network; it allows the As the first lockdown eased, we noted how Dr Pete Thompson FREng is smooth passage of traffic, or in this case measure- Covid-19 had so quickly changed the way we live CEO of the National Physical Laboratory (NPL). He ments, which add value to the economy and qual- our lives. Businesses were, and still are, recovering took up his present role in ity of life as well as enabling new technologies that from periods of shutdown and reduced working September 2015 and has solve national and global challenges. For exam- hours. The pressures of working under new social overseen the Laboratory’s ple, NPL’s measurement scientists, alongside a distancing rules brought new challenges to ‘nor- development and growth since its change in status group of multidisciplinary chemists, physicists mal’ ways of working. And so, in August, support- to a public corporation. and biologists, have addressed one of the greatest ed by our colleagues in the Department for Busi- Prior to this he was a Board challenges in the health sector, which is to devel- ness, Energy and Industrial Strategy, I was delight- Member and Deputy Chief op a reproducible, standardised way to fully map ed to launch Measurement for Recovery (M4R), a Executive at the Defence Science and Technology tumours with great precision. This ground-break- programme in which we are supporting compa- Laboratory (Dstl), ing project has progressed with impressive speed nies to innovate and address the many challenges responsible for corporate and achieved some remarkable results. These businesses currently face – by matching them to strategy, governance, advancements are set to transform our under- world-leading metrologists in their fields and to strategic relationships, communications and human standing of cancer and open the door to new and the techniques and technologies only available at resources. In addition to better ways to diagnose and treat the disease. NPL and our partner laboratories. being a Fellow of the Royal One of the biggest changes we have faced is our Academy of Engineering, Mission critical new reliance on digital technology and its associ- he is the recipient of two MOD Chief Scientific Adviser At the official opening of NPL in 1902, HRH the ated infrastructure. Most of the population will, Commendations and the US Prince of Wales quoted NPL’s purpose as “to bring during the past six months, have benefited at NIMUC award. scientific knowledge to bear practically upon our some point from working and socialising via everyday industrial and commercial life” and this Zoom and MS Teams or shopping via online mission may never have been more important retailers – for many, every waking minute seems than right now, in 2020. to be spent in front of some sort of screen. This of As the UK went into lockdown, our scientists course, presents new challenges: infrastructure and engineers set to work applying metrology to and associated connectivity issues, cybersecurity some of the challenges presented­ by Covid-19. and data processing and management. NPL worked on the development of reference From our original measurement infrastruc- virus-like particles exhibiting nanoscale proper- ture, built on physical foundations, we are now ties and characteristics. This aids accurate, differ- presented with a new type – a digital one. A metre ential measurements of cells, viruses and virus- is no longer a stick but is a laser wavelength, time like structures in clinical samples. The compari- no longer a pendulum but the ticking of an atom. son studies helped improve repeatability and To this end, we are developing our digital reproducibility of proposed methods and materi- infrastructure. To make sense of the ever-increas- One of the biggest als, and validated measurement results with ing range and quantity of data being generated, changes we have traceability to the SI system. This is fundamental society is turning to artificial intelligence (AI) faced is our new to ensure the quality, approval and delivery of safe and algorithms to sort and interpret the data. It is reliance on digital and effective vaccines. essential that we are able to quality-assure our technology and its During the pandemic we maintained our work data and understand decision-making processes, associated in distributing the national timescale and radia- especially for safety-critical applications. Discus- infrastructure. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 7 GUEST EDITORIAL

Most of the world’s sions with industry and – at an international level cybersecurity infrastructure is based on the cybersecurity –with other National Metrology Institutes have exchange and use of digital cryptographic keys. infrastructure is emphasised the need for internationally accepted Random numbers are essential to this infrastruc- based on the and standardised infrastructure for the prove- ture and to new technologies such as quantum exchange and use of nance of data. key distribution. Through this project we look to digital cryptographic We must also adopt FAIR principles. Data address the lack of authoritative certification of keys. We are looking should be Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, the unique randomness produced by QRNGs. to address the lack and Reproducible, so that maximum value can be We have also been forging ahead with the of authoritative extracted. We are working with colleagues across National Timing Centre programme, which will certification of the the UK Quality Infrastructure to develop data develop the enhanced national time scale unique randomness quality frameworks that will be important across UTC(NPL) and will become the resilient source produced by industry and the digital economy. of timing for the UK. We launched this pro- quantum random The UK’s Measurement Strategy prioritises the gramme in 2019 because we were already aware number generators. ability to deliver confidence in the intelligent and that subtle changes were afoot within our digital effective use of data. This supports the UK’s aspi- infrastructure that needed our urgent attention. ration to be a world leader in the effective use of Across all sectors we are hugely dependent on data, and is underpinned by a professionally an invisible utility, one that guides our every equipped workforce, accredited to the highest ­waking moment – timing. It is an underpinning standards. NPL is proud to be a world leader capability that is necessary for synchronisation in among National Metrology Institutes, developing everything from telecoms and broadcast, through standards for data science that will provide confi- to traceable time stamping for regulatory compli- dence in decision making, driven by collaboration ance in the finance sector. Currently we depend with fellow Public Sector Research Establishments. on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) for our global positioning, navigation and timing. Developing skills Our reliance on these weak, space-based signals This new infrastructure also requires associated makes us vulnerable to jamming and spoofing, as skillsets and we are working to develop the skills laid out in the Government’s Blackett Review1. the UK will need. It is important that we are Our vision is to increase the UK’s resilience by developing a digitally literate and technically leveraging multiple technologies, each with dif- skilled workforce that will be able to support the ferent failure modes and risks for time dissemina- emergence of new sectors of industry and adapt tion (including GNSS) to provide a resilient tim- as more established sectors undergo digital trans- ing service for the digital future. As emerging formation. There will be an increasing need for applications such as autonomous vehicles, AI, people with data science skills and so there needs distributed computing, smart cities and distrib- to be appropriate training and professional recog- uted ledger technologies go mainstream, we are nition in order to demonstrate that they meet ready to enable them. required standards. NPL is working alongside the As the pace of technological change acceler- UK’s Learned Societies and others to establish ates, society needs to adapt in order to realise the industry-wide professional standards for data sci- full benefits and opportunities. We recently com- ence, to ensure an ethical and well-governed pleted our Vision of the 2030s shaped by metrol- approach and give confidence in the professionals ogy; Technology and Measurement Foresighting2., who are working with our data. which highlighted the major trends in the future In its drive to be a scientific super­power, the of society and industry and analysed which tech- UK is looking to create a quantum-enabled econ- nologies will be vital to enable them. These trends omy. Quantum technologies are an integral part are grouped according to impact area: built envi- of the UK’s digital fabric and advanced manufac- ronment; energy; food production; healthcare; turing base and will add significant value to the manufacturing; and transport. UK’s prosperity as well as its security. Whether it is driving the green recovery or Earlier this year, scientists from our Quantum ensuring intelligent use of data with confidence, Metrology Institute announced a major inter-dis- the UK’s position as a science superpower ciplinary Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund depends on a measurement infrastructure which (ISCF) project: Assurance of Quantum Random is well-equipped for our digital future. ☐ Number Generators. This is being led by NPL www.npl.co.uk/contact# with key partners from the UK’s leading develop- ers of optical quantum random number genera- 1. www.gov.uk/government/publications/satellite- tors (QRNGs) and UK universities. derived-time-and-position-blackett-review This project confirmed that most of the world’s 2. www.npl.co.uk/foresighting

8 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SCIENCE ADVICE AND POLICY CHOICES Politicians should be able to make decisions aware of the best available evidence. However, concern is sometimes expressed that the difference between science advice and political decisions might be blurred. That distinction was examined at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 15 July 2020. Modelling as a route to understanding Angela McLean

people venturing outside of their front door SUMMARY against the ‘R’ number that is talked about so much (the average number of secondary infections • SPI-M models aspects of the pandemic and is a caused by one case). Then we include the propor- sub-group of SAGE tion of primary children back at school. Add esti- • Mathematical modelling is used to examine the mates for the effectiveness of contact tracing and potential impact of a range of complex our Covid security and we can get some projec- interventions tions on, the likely impact of different combina- Professor Dame Angela • This helps to highlight those actions where there tions of social distancing rules. McLean DBE FRS is Chief is a level of confidence and to identify areas What we are trying to do with this modelling is Scientific Adviser at the where more information is still required to capture those aspects we feel secure about. Ministry of Defence, a post she has held since 2019. • Collaboration does not compromise Quite a lot is known about how different age In that role she provides independence groups in society mix with each other. We feel rea- strategic leadership for • Science advice can only be one factor in political sonably secure about (roughly) how many people science and technology decision-making. are venturing outside of their front door. There are in the Department, sets strategic direction for S&T in also things we do not know so well yet. For exam- Defence and oversees more ple, we are steadily getting a better understanding than £350 million of annual co-chair the Scientific Pandemic Influenza of the effectiveness of our contact tracing. research. Professor McLean Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a group of One of our concerns has been that somebody has been a Professor in Mathematical Biology in mathematical modellers who form a sub- would take one of these ‘snapshots’ and use it to the Department of Zoology Igroup of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emer- say ‘oh, well I can let another 5% of people leave at the University of Oxford gencies (SAGE). We provide advice to SAGE; their homes today then’, which is not what these since 1994 and is a Fellow then Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris are for. They certainly cannot predict exactly how of All Souls College. She was elected a Fellow of the Whitty, the Chairs of SAGE, take that advice to big the R value is, but they do offer some under- Royal Society in 2009 and Ministers. The process can be complex, with a standing about how it changes with variation of awarded a DBE in 2018. certain amount of to-and-fro between academics the many different activities we could have more and civil servants. or less of. I believe that, with the discussions We have been trying to identify a suitable set between civil servants and scientists in my circle, of questions – we call it the ‘commission’ – to progress has been made. which we can offer an equally sensible response from the academic modellers. When I first Collaboration joined the process, the commission was a very There is certainly a feeling that we are achieving long list of questions. When lockdown was more useful answers – and the civil servants feel imposed there were 10 interventions – from they are asking better questions. Collaboration is, self-isolation when poorly, household quaran- after all, a two-way street. tine when someone else was poorly, to the closing That collaboration between different sorts of of playgrounds. So the first commission was, people has involved astonishing amounts of long Collaboration makes very nearly, to examine all the possible combina- hours worked. Because of that, we have been able, some people uneasy. tions of those 10 interventions. again and again, to respond quickly to questions How is it possible to After much discussion, backwards and for- from politicians and civil servants, providing collaborate with the wards, we developed a much broader range of ‘sci- timely, relevant and independent advice. people asking the ence advice products’ that we took to SAGE. As an Collaboration makes some people feeling question and still be example, in one of these, we model the number of uneasy. How is it possible to collaborate with the independent? fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 9 SCIENCE ADVICE AND POLICY CHOICES

It is common for people asking the question and still be indepen- and SPI-M has been collegiate, it has been collabo- people to say they dent? I do not believe that is a problem. It is com- rative, there has been an intense sense of urgency are ‘following the mon for people to say they are ‘following the in the work we have done and I, for one, would not science’. I would ­science’. I would be happier to talk about ‘hearing’ have missed it for the world. be happier to talk the science. Science advice should be present at It has been possible to bring relevant science about ‘hearing’ the the beating heart of Government decision-­ advice, developed at great pace, right into the heart science. making, but it is only one of the things that need of political decision-making. The fact that this has to be taken into account. been so high-profile is good for science, but it is Reflecting on the months attending SAGE and still as important as ever to preserve the indepen- co-chairing SPI-M, nobody who has been involved dence of people who do that work. It must also in an emergency in which so many ­thousands have remain quite clear that science advice is just one of lost their lives could possibly feel wholly happy the considerations on the table when politicians about it. Yet, the experience of working with SAGE make their decisions. ☐ Being open and transparent about science David King

he principle of academic freedom in our universities entails that the primary char- SUMMARY acter of their scientific research is that it is Tfree from political interference. However, for a • Government scientific advisers act as bridges Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA), between current science and the political who is appointed on the basis of being a system world-leading expert in some field of research, • Advice to Government must be based on the best science available Professor Sir David King the primary objective is to interact with the polit- ScD FRS HonFREng is Chair ical system. • The adviser’s role includes advising Government of Independent SAGE. He I spent 35 years of my career establishing my but also informing the public is Emeritus Professor of credentials in scientific capability. Then I went • Scientific advice needs to be rigorous, accurate Chemistry at the University and jargon-free of Cambridge, and Founder into Government to be a bridge between current and Chair of the Centre science and the political system. The first Chief • There is a great appetite for hearing expert views for Climate Repair at the Scientific Adviser was Frederick Lindemann and on issues. University. Professor King his second in command was Solly Zuckerman, was the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser appointed during the Second World War at the between 2000 and 2007, request of Winston Churchill. Zuckerman gave The current official description of the role the Foreign Secretary’s advice on the conduct of the war, not just weapons says: “The Government Chief Scientific Adviser Special Representative on or technology. advises the Prime Minister and the cabinet on sci- Climate Change, 2013- 2017, and Chair of Future One key piece of advice was about bombing ence and technology policy issues which cut Cities Catapult, 2012-2016. strategy in advance of the landing of the allied forc- across individual Government Departments.” Professor King was elected a es in France. Churchill had already decided there That is a very clear statement and advising on pol- Fellow of the Royal Society in should be carpet bombing of cities and factories in icy issues is the key function. 1991 and knighted in 2003. Germany, but Zuckerman advised that there I moved into Government shortly after the should be strategic bombing of railways and bridg- bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis es so that German troops could not be switched in cattle which was a disaster for the British across to where the landing occurred. This was farming community. The Philips Commission direct advice and there was an argument with published its report in the month that I was Churchill who, in the end, accepted that advice. appointed Chief Scientific Adviser. What it said I believe that a science adviser in Government was, very clearly, that the GCSA and other Scien- must advise on policies based on the best science. tific Advisers must be able to put their advice to Of course, ultimately the politicians decide: the Government ministers and the Cabinet – but buck stops with the PM. also into the public domain. That became my

10 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SCIENCE ADVICE AND POLICY CHOICES mantra during my time in this role. The Government Chief Scientific Adviser must be a The reason for Phillips saying that was quite simple. During this epidemic among cattle, the good and clear communicator – language must be Government Minister concerned tried to per- jargon-free, but be rigorous and accurate. suade the public that British beef was perfectly good to eat: he even fed his daughter a hamburger Another big programme focused on cognitive on television. This was at a time when it was systems, looking at our capability in IT and brain understood that Variant CJD, a new human brain science and bringing these two together. This was disease, probably arose from people eating British in 2001 to 2003 – in a way, it prefigured AI. What beef but science advisers were kept away from emerged from that work were a number of new television. Phillips said, quite simply, “When they university departments. said they were following scientific advice, the A key point about these programmes is that at people couldn’t understand if that were true”. So least one Government Minister was brought into he concluded that science advisers must be able to each programme. Of the four scenarios that we go into the public domain with their advice. always predicted forward in time, one was very That was my approach throughout the foot attractive and one not at all attractive, so Minis- and mouth epidemic. When the Prime Minister ters were brought in to see what corrective action at a COBRA meeting asked for advice, I was was necessary if we had started moving in the not the only one who could provide guidance from so attractive direction. a group of epidemiologists and veterinary The biggest project during my time with the ­scientists drawn from outside Government. I was Foresight Programme concerned infectious dis- subsequently asked to effectively take over eases. Indeed, it was that report, published by the the management of the epidemic and I set up a Government Office for Science in 2006, that fore- committee which included not only science saw a pandemic of the kind that is now causing advisers but also veterinary scientists, some from such damage. outside of Government. The Chief Veterinary Officer was a member and so, crucially, was a Communication Ministry of Defence strategic expert who calcu- The GCSA must be a good and clear communica- lated MoD capability in military operations: tor – language must be jargon-free, but be rigor- this expertise was absolutely key to the manage- ous and accurate. I set up Independent SAGE ment of the epidemic. because I was, frankly, worried that communica- I met the Prime Minister once a day; he took tion was not clear from the Government’s Scien- decisions but always to back me and the decisions tific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). of the committee. Quite simply, as he wrote in his We were not told any of their processes of deci- autobiography, he did not really understand the sion-making, nor did we see the current Chief science underlying what we were doing and so he Scientific Adviser or Chief Medical Officer being handed over to the scientists who could manage it. made available to be challenged by the media. When Independent SAGE was set up, it was Foresight not even public knowledge who was on Govern- Subsequently, I turned the Government’s Foresight ment SAGE. I want to stress that Independent Programme into an instrument of in-depth study. SAGE is a group of experts who include a good Each project involved at least 100 experts (the big- group of healthcare specialists. We have experts gest had 350). It took two to three years to deliver on operational health. This means we can look an in-depth Foresight analysis with scenarios built right across the board and are able to give policy forward in time. In one on flood and coastal advice on that basis. defence issues, the scenarios went out to 2080, It is, in essence, an orchestra of specialists and using available data on climate change and how I am simply the conductor. However, all members flood risk would increase with rising sea levels. of the group take up frequent invitations to appear There is a very big When a report on climate change impacts on television and radio and speak to the press. appetite for experts went to Government, I was asked to present it to There is a very big appetite for experts to talk to talk about the the Cabinet. The Prime Minister also asked me to about the reality of the situation, what the policies reality of the talk to a meeting of parliamentarians about it. are and what needs to be done. No one else fulfils situation, what the This was attended by members of both Houses of this role of informing the public. policies are and Parliament and led to the Government taking a If we are to have an advisory system that has what needs to be leading role in global negotiations. The unilater- the trust of the Government, the Cabinet, the done. No one else al UK target of an 80% reduction by 2050 demon- Prime Minister and also the public, then that is fulfils this role of strated how seriously we were taking the matter. what we need. ☐ informing the public. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 11 SCIENCE ADVICE AND POLICY CHOICES Advice and policy making in an emergency Mark Walport

t is important to understand the relationship between science and politics in the broad SUMMARY sweep of national affairs, the role of science in Ian emergency such as Covid-19, and then its • Science, in its broadest sense, provides the place in longer term issues such as climate change evidence base for policy making and environmental degradation. • Scientists advise but politicians decide – that It is also important to distinguish between the is fundamental Professor Sir Mark Walport narrow view of science, the world of STEM (sci- • Modern, complex economies have become more FRS HonFRSE FMedSci has ence, technology, engineering and mathematics) efficient but also less resilient recently stepped down from and a much more inclusive approach to scientific • Policy makers constantly have to balance the post of Chief Executive of knowledge which I like to refer to as STEAM – sci- competing priorities UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), overseeing the UK’s ence, technology, engineering, the arts and maths. • Covid-19 is the most challenging emergency research and innovation That is what Germans call Wissenschaft and it faced by a Chief Scientific Adviser in the past spending – a post he encapsulates the broad sweep of knowledge result- 50 years. held since 2017. From ing from systematic study and research, including 2013 to 2017, he was UK Government Chief Scientific subject areas such as human values. Looked at in Adviser. Before that, Sir Mark that sense, science is the evidence base for politics When things go rapidly wrong there needs to was Director of the Wellcome and should be intrinsic to the political process. be an established mechanism to bring science and Trust from 2003 to 2013. George Russell, the Irish nationalist and poly- politics together quickly. That is one of the He was knighted in 2009 for services to medical research math, wrote in 1912: “The great problem before strengths of the UK system, being one of the and was elected a Fellow of democracy is the evolution of a social order important lessons learned from the Foot and the Royal Society in 2011. which will ensure, so far as anything human can Mouth epidemic of 2001. be ensured, that democracy will put forward its It is fair to say that not all the lessons of Iain best thinkers, its wisest men of affairs and that it Anderson’s report in July 2002 have been learned. will develop a respect for the women of special One lesson that was heeded led to the creation of and expert knowledge” (I changed one word in the Science and Advice Group in Emergencies that paragraph!). (SAGE). This was formed by Sir John Beddington He continued: “Every people get the kind of pol- in 2009 to help handle the Swine Flu pandemic iticians they deserve and we must organise the and has operated regularly since then. nation so that the people may be more deserving of When things go wrong in a global emergency, – and more discerning of – better qualities in their there is a series of cascading consequences for public representatives than they are at present.” complex, largely urban societies around the That was clearly a problem then and it remains world. As modern economies have become more a problem now, with no obvious solution in sight. efficient, they have become less resilient, so a In general, I think, with the rise of populist poli- shock to one part of the system reverberates wide- tics across the world, the application of Wissen- ly. The challenge is that policy makers constantly schaft is in trouble. have to balance competing priorities – for exam- ple, maintaining the supply of goods and services Science in emergencies while at the same time reducing the mobility of The fundamental The topic of science and politics in emergencies is citizens as far as possible. Ultimately, it is for pol- principle that such a salient issue in the context of the Covid-19 icy makers, who in democratic societies are elect- governs the pandemic. The fundamental point is that Gov- ed politicians, to make the difficult decisions in relationship ernment is supremely important in the leadership the development and implementation of policies between science and policy decisions that need to be made at pace that take into account competing priorities. and politics is that in the uncertainty of this global emergency. The Covid-19 is the most challenging emergency the scientist advises fundamental principle that governs the relation- faced by a Chief Scientific Adviser over the past 50 and the politician ship between science and politics is that the scien- years. The key goal must be to prevent direct decides. tist advises and the politician decides. harm from infection. However, policies aimed at

12 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SCIENCE ADVICE AND POLICY CHOICES

Scientific advisers join the Prime Minister at a No. 10 press briefing. UK PRIME MINISTERUK PRIME (CC 2.0) BY-NC-ND

achieving this alone bring their own potential ­Oliver Wendell-Holmes in 1924, saying: “I can, I harms. There are other risks to physical health, think, recite fairly fully on the habits of bureau­ from loss of access to health services to the impact cracy. The things which distinguish it are these: 1) on people with other diseases: so protecting the Its members all say the same thing; 2) They cannot health service is a very important, strategic aim. understand that their expert knowledge is open to There are risks to mental health from prolonged independent enquiry [and here he was not refer- social isolation and being trapped in the home. ring to enquiry by other experts]; 3) They have Then there are the broader societal effects of the complete contempt for all outside of their loss of education that a whole generation is facing, charmed circle; 4) They don’t realise how many as well as the long-term risk to many millions people there are who want a share, however small, around the world of changes in work patterns and in deciding their own destiny. They hardly see opportunities. Looking to the future, there are why people should want to make their own rules.” huge issues of inter-generational equity – and these are just a few examples. Keep experts in their place The policy maker looks through three lenses. There is a well-known aphorism which is often The first is: ‘What is known about this issue?’ This attributed to Churchill, but was actually by George is the lens of evidence. There is, however, often Russell, who wrote in 1912: “Experts ought to be great uncertainty and this is where broad science on tap, and not on top. The official classes will, I advice is essential. believe, be much happier serving the public than The second lens is: ‘Is this policy deliverable, in setting snares or inventing schemes to control and what might be the consequences?’ industries and movements they have no part in The third lens that policy makers look through creating, where their interference would be fatal is: ‘How does this policy fit with my own personal to any fine idealism or noble humanity.” and political values, as well as the values of the Harold Laski, in that letter to Oliver Wen- electorate?’ dell-Holmes, echoed this, saying: “They cannot Ultimately, politicians – the people we elect as understand that their expert knowledge is open to our policy makers – integrate the inputs from independent enquiry. If I may so phrase it, they these three lenses to decide on policies. do not see that the business of an expert is to be on Too many commentators look through only tap and not on top.” ☐ one lens, taking an extremely narrow view, while policy makers have to look through all three. I When things go wrong in a global emergency, have always thought it much easier to be the advis- er than the decision maker. there is a series of consequences for complex, Harold Laski wrote a coruscating letter to largely urban societies. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 13 SCIENCE ADVICE AND POLICY CHOICES The debate After the formal presentations, members of the audience were able to put questions to the speakers. Topics included: clarity of messaging; communicating uncertainty; trust and openness.

here was a concern that the public could become confused when Independent SAGE comes to a different conclusion fromT SAGE. On this point, there was some dis- agreement. One panel member pointed out that when Independent SAGE was originally set up, the minutes, advice and membership of SAGE were ARCTIC [CC CIRCLE VIA 2.0] FLICKR BY not being published, so there was no confusion. All members of Independent SAGE have been sub- ject to scrutiny by the media. Independent SAGE at all times assessed the current position and gave advice on moving forward. For example, Indepen- dent SAGE was recommending action to head towards zero virus in the community. It was stated that the per capita incidence of Covid was very dif- ferent in the different nations of the UK.

The cost of zero virus to speak directly to the public. Former Government This was challenged by another panel member It was suggested by some of the audience that Chief Scientific who said that, on the contrary, there was little Ministers use science more for support than illu- Adviser Sir David ­difference between the four UK nations in per mination. Scientific advisers stood next to the King established capita incidence of Covid. It was also argued that Prime Minister during some of the Number 10 Independent SAGE. moving to zero virus in the community was policy press briefings on Covid and the wisdom of this advice not science advice (which should rather set was challenged. Some felt this left them too asso- out pros and cons of different options) and that ciated with the policy, not just the advice. How- moving to zero virus in the community would be ever, such joint appearances had happened in the extremely expensive. past (for example during the Novichok incident). Another panel member suggested that Inde- Inevitably there were some risks associated with pendent SAGE had spent much of its time critici­ this and science advisers are certainly aware of sing the implementation of policy. them. However, the alternative would be to walk On the question of trust and openness, one away and that seemed to be the wrong choice. ☐ panel member suggested that all advice and data from official SAGE should go into the public domain. However, politicians should have sight of FURTHER INFORMATION that data for a while before it was made public. In response to a question about the scientific Government Chief Scientific Advisers knowledge of Parliamentarians, it was suggested www.gov.uk/government/groups/chief-scientific-advisers that too few scientists and engineers stood for ­Parliament, but if scientists wanted to be involved Government Office for Science in making policy, they should stand as politicians. www.gov.uk/government/organisations/government-office-for-science When talking to the public, it is important to strike a balance between having a clear message Government Science Capability Review and communicating uncertainty. During the pan- www.gov.uk/government/publications/government-science-capability-review demic, the quality of science journalism has been very high, with journalists working extremely Independent SAGE www.independentsage.org hard to report accurately. The question of what will happen during Science Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) the winter months is an example of an area of www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scientific-advisory-group-for- scientific­ uncertainty that must be well-com­ emergencies municated. Here it is important for scientists

14 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT The Covid-19 pandemic has already had noticeable effects on our environment, in terms of air quality and carbon emissions. But what changes in policy need to be made to make such benefits permanent? The issue was discussed at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 27 May 2020. The opportunity to protect the environment Rob Jackson

gies while stopping the continuing rise, even SUMMARY today, of fossil fuels. How has Covid-19 altered emissions? We • Growth in energy demand is still outstripping the looked at populations in different countries who growth in renewable energy supply were under lockdown or different levels of con- • Covid-19 has resulted in a significant drop in finement. We also looked at estimates of activity. carbon emissions Surface transport reduced by half. Electricity • Society need to make these declines in consumption was down by about one-sixth or Professor Rob Jackson is emissions permanent one-seventh. Manufacturing and steel produc- Chair of the Global Carbon • Covid-19 recovery funding could be invested in tion were down by a third. Aviation was down Project at Stanford University projects which work towards the UK’s carbon- over 70%, although aviation is a substantially in the USA. He is the Douglas zero target Provostial Professor of smaller proportion of greenhouse gas emissions Energy and the Environment • Clean energy transition should be a core part of than road transport. at Stanford University. His stimulus spending. Figure 1 shows carbon dioxide emissions over lab examines the many ways the past 50 years, in millions of tonnes of emis- people affect the Earth, including the effects of sions per day. There has been a continuing rise. climate change and droughts he Global Carbon Project integrates the There were dips – the financial crisis had a very on forests and grasslands. work of hundreds of scientists who assess short 1.5% decline in 2009. Emissions shot back A Guggenheim Fellow and the state of global greenhouse gas emis- up by 5% in 2010, as if nothing had changed, so current sabbatical visitor in the Center for Advanced Tsions and concentrations, including carbon the world cannot rely on financial crises to Study in the Behavioral ­dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. We monitor reduce emissions. During Covid, though, during Sciences, he is also a Fellow natural systems in the oceans and on land, the peak reduction of activity due to confine- of the American Association and human activities such as agriculture and ment, there was a decline in emissions of 17%, for the Advancement of Science, American ­fossil fuel burning. We recently produced our although they are starting to move back up. Geophysical Union, and first budgets for nitrous oxide and have Ecological Society of also released our latest assessments for carbon Drastic decrease America. ­dioxide and methane. That is a huge decrease. In the USA, peak emis- As background, the average global surface sions decline was about one-third. Now that is temperature has already risen 1.1˚C since pre-in- an unsustainable decline in emissions: we do not dustrial times, we are well on our way to 1.5˚ and want emissions to go down because there are the past five years have been the warmest period hundreds of millions of people out of work and on record. Global hunger and food insecurity are because we are locked in at home. Nonetheless,­ rising after years of welcome decline, so there is a it has been a remarkable change. lot happening due to climate change. Our estimate for 2020 is that US emissions Why are emissions still rising? Despite the will fall between 4-7%. The IEA suggests around explosive growth in renewables of 14% per year 8%, which may not sound like a lot, but that is over the past five years, oil and natural gas con- by far the biggest decrease since World War II, sumption are still rising. Only for coal, globally, and maybe ever. is there a hint of decline at 1% per year. The rea- son is that energy demand, overall, is growing The financial crisis saw a 1.5% decline in 2009, and is outpacing the growth of renewables. That really is the challenge to climate change – how to but emissions shot back up in 2010. The world accelerate renewables and zero carbon technolo- cannot rely on financial crises to reduce emissions. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 15 CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

In early April, global Figure 1. Global daily fossil CO2 emissions (MtCO2) fossil CO2 emissions decreased 17% compared to the 100 – same day of 2019. The global decline ) through April was -1 d 1.05 Mt CO2. 2 80 – emissions (MtCO emissions 2 60 –

40 – Global daily fossil CO fossil daily Global

20 – 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year Source: Le Quéré et al. 2020. Nature Climate Change

Many countries show a similar decline in stimulating renewable energy about 10 years ago emissions: China, Europe, etc. In some though and that had some of the best returns of any emissions are rising again. So how can we make investment. The country is still reaping benefits declines more permanent? How can clean air today from the record low wholesale costs for and energy transition (which should be the goal wind and solar contracts. in my opinion) be incentivised, with stimulus Around 100,000 people in the USA still die funding during Covid-19? Some 10 million peo- annually from car and coal pollution; globally the ple around the world work in renewable energy figure is more than one million people. By clean- and many more in different aspects of energy ing up our air, coupling that with the promotion of conservation. electric cars and such, we could have clean air every day without having to stay at home. The USA In the USA, there are $40 billion in low-interest The UK loans currently sitting idle in the Department of I am not an expert on UK policy, but it could invest Energy’s Advanced Vehicles and Energy pro- Covid-19 recovery funds in technologies that grammes. That is due primarily to politics. We would help the country reach its binding ‘net zero’ should release that money so that people can go target. That would include decarbonising trans- back to work and we can have progress. The big port which has been the hardest sector to decarbo- stimulus bill in Congress, the Health and Eco- nise. Building retrofits, energy efficiency, heating nomic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions needs, low-carbon fuels, societal and personal (HEROES) Bill, does not include investments or choice, tree-planting – there are many possibilities. production tax credits for wind and solar. The Committee on Climate Change has pro- There are other opportunities and needs – duced a set of recommendations which include providing comprehensive job re-training for investing to support economic recovery in jobs. people in the coal and fossil fuel industries, for Equity is a core principle for stimulus spending. example. The USA spent around $90 billion on Making sure the recovery does not lock in green- house gas emissions or increase climate risk is The USA spent around $90 billion on stimulating also vital. The EU and China are making clean energy transition a core part of their stimulus renewable energy about 10 years ago and that had spending and their activities. The UK and the some of the best returns of any investment. USA should do that, too. ☐

16 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT Doing right for the planet and for humanity Kimberly Nicholas

gets but also sustainable development goals have SUMMARY to be taken into account. That means adopting principles of equity as well as managing land-use • Climate change is bad for people – both those and other natural resources because biodiversity alive today and future generations and nature also need room to thrive. We must • To hit a 1.5˚C warming target, emissions have to determine what constitutes a good life for every- drop by half within 10 years one within the biophysical limits this planet can • Climate stability needs to be aligned with afford and sustain. Dr Kimberly Nicholas is sustainable development Stabilising the climate means halting the emis- Associate Professor and • Subsidies that harm the environment must be sions of carbon into the atmosphere entirely. Director of PhD Studies at switched to actions that improve it the Lund University Centre Some of the carbon we currently emit stays in the for Sustainability Studies • There are many ways to achieve the change climate for thousands of years so, essentially, in Sweden. Her research required: but we need to start today. to stabilise the climate those emissions have to focusses on the connections drop to zero. As long as fossil energy is not com- between people, land, and climate. She has evaluated pletely replaced by clean energy, climate warming the climate policies of s this pandemic forces unexpected will continue. Swedish political parties change on our daily lives, it begs the To stabilise the climate, a system which is caus- ahead of the national and question of what life might be like on the ing climate harm has to be replaced with one that EU elections, and written policy briefs on the role otherA side of this crisis. What will a post-Covid is safe for the climate. As Leah Stokes from the of behaviour change for world look like – perhaps even more importantly University of California Santa Barbara points out, long-term national climate what could it look like? Will we take the opportu- we do not just need 100% clean electricity, we targets, and on flying less in nity to make real change? need 200%, because we also have to electrify the Green New Deal. There is overwhelming scientific agreement everything that uses energy, including transport that the planet is warming due to human activity. systems which are now running on fossil fuels. Climate change is very bad for human beings, not just for future generations but for those of us liv- Agriculture ing now. Most people alive today will see global About a quarter of total warming comes from temperatures rise by 1.5-2˚C. The present agriculture. The way people use land today is moment is really the last chance to stabilise the contributing to the climate problem. Humanity climate at a tolerable limit, and it is really urgent is degrading and destabilising ecosystems. This that we take it. risks not only the stability of the climate but the very ability for life on earth to thrive. Nature has Sustainable development to be healthy in order to maintain a stable climate. We know from the Intergovernmental Panel on There is an opportunity at this point in time to Climate Change (IPCC) that impacts will be much shift from a system where a lot of money is invest- worse and more devastating if the world misses ed in doing harm towards one that is sustainable, the 1.5˚ C stabilisation target and reaches a warm- gives people good jobs and is compatible with the ing of 2˚ C or more. We need to reduce emissions planet. At the moment, more than 6% of global We have an by about 7.6% per year – that is the figure the Unit- GDP, some $5.2 trillion, is used to subsidise fossil opportunity to shift ed Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) fuels in order to make them cheaper, and to pay from a system where says will be needed to achieve the 1.5˚ C goal. the social and health costs of the damages they a lot of money is Globally, that means cutting emissions in half cause. Continuing to build infrastructure for fos- invested in doing by 2030. Rich countries continue to have high sil fuels – pipelines, energy plants, etc – does not harm towards one emissions and must cut down more quickly. We make sense and is incompatible with our remain- that is sustainable, need to focus all our efforts on making society ing carbon budgets for a stabilised climate at 1.5˚. gives people compatible with a safe climate because the stakes Not only that, we need to shut down, ahead of good jobs and is are just too high to fail. schedule, some of these most-polluting infrastruc- compatible with Yet to achieve this goal, not only climate tar- ture such as coal-fired power plants to meet agreed the planet. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 17 CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT JOÃO PIMENTELJOÃO FERREIRA/ 4.0) (CC BY-SA

The Hague, in the warming limits. As we plan for economic recovery, post-Covid economic recovery will be small- Netherlands, has we must keep these principles in mind. Money scale transition or ‘tiny tech’: neighbour- a car-free city- should be spent where it will do the most good. hood-based or locally-based incentives; training centre, allowing However, this has to be a fair and just transi- armies of workers to retrofit housing with residents and tion. Jobs are at the heart of this transition: health low-carbon technologies; using local and decen- visitors to experience and wellbeing for people, communities and tralised forms of energy – and all the while taking better air quality, nature must guide our thinking on this. advantage of the jobs and learning that brings. less noise, and an It is not possible to go back to business as usual Transport is another area needing attention. improved quality because that is a recipe for catastrophic climate Everywhere that we can, we should be looking to of life. change. reduce car usage: they are a major source of emis- sions. Cities should be built for and around peo- Achieving change ple, rather than cars. In cities around the world, There are many ways to achieve the step change people are taking back streets, away from cars, that is needed. First, change the incentive struc- and are really appreciating being able to get exer- ture: we cannot keep investing in fossil fuels or cise, move freely, get better air quality on foot or other unsustainable technologies. Regulations ­bicycle. These are healthy and effective ways of and standards are important and have historical- both reducing emissions and improving health. ly played a significant role in the limited progress Some industries are not on track to meet cli- to date in reducing emissions. mate goals and do not have a plan to reduce their A new study led by Charlie Wilson at the Uni- emissions. These need make a serious effort to versity of East Anglia, reported in Science, showed lower emissions and that means lowering demand, that one of the most effective principles to inform actually – not planning for growth but planning ways to reduce and limit high-carbon activities in There is a really historic opportunity here to better line with our remaining carbon budget. There is a really historic opportunity here to align what is good for the planet with what is good better align what is good for the planet with what for the people: we must take it. is good for the people: we must take it. ☐

18 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT Addressing the issues of climate change and biodiversity loss Stephanie Wray

mative change means fundamental, system-wide SUMMARY reorganisation across technology, economic and social factors, including society, paradigms, goals • ‘Getting back to normal’ after Covid is not the and values – steering right away from the current answer to biodiversity loss and climate change paradigm of economic growth at all costs. • It is not too late to restore our natural capital but There have been some apparent benefits to the we have to start now natural environment during the Covid-19 lock- • Climate change and biodiversity loss are down. There is good data to show some marine, Dr Stephanie Wray is an interlinked freshwater and terrestrial species which are evi- ecologist and the Managing • Ecology needs to be at the centre of policy dently thriving in the absence of noise, light and Director of RSK Biocensus, making an environmental direct disturbances. We read that wild flowers are consultancy specialising • Ecosystems need to be supported through a thriving on our road verges because the amount in biodiversity and natural natural capital infrastructure plan. of maintenance and routine management has capital issues. She is a gone down. Sensitive habitats like flora and former President of the Chartered Institute of ancient woodland will be benefitting from Ecology and Environmental n early March this year, I am not sure anyone improvements in local air quality. My social Management, and is the envisaged the extent to which all of our home media feeds are full of people interacting with and Chair of the Institute’s and working lives were about to change due appreciating nature. That is important – if you do Strategic Policy Panel. Her work focusses on Ito the Coronavirus pandemic. There is now a not appreciate nature, you will not want to save it. environmental law and great deal of talk about ‘getting back to normal’ as Yet it is not all sunshine and roses. While most policy, sustainability and soon as possible but frankly, from the perspective of the law-abiding citizens of the world, and most biodiversity; she advises of restoring biodiversity, getting back to business of the law-enforcers, have been in some degree of both Governmental and private clients. as usual is the last thing that we want. Let’s leave lockdown, this has provided an opportunity for the old way of doing things behind and instead illegal logging, poaching of particularly high-val- consider some of the changes required in the ue items like ivory, as well as hunting, over-fishing brave new post-Covid-19 world. and over-exploitation of other wildlife. At the There had been an expectation that 2020 moment, fish prices are high, so it is a tempting would be a moment for biodiversity and nature – time for people to indulge in taking more than a global meetings, a world conservation congress, sustainable proportion of that resource. UN oceans conference, a UN nature summit – The UK has seen an increase in waste and that was all to culminate in Kunming in China, in fly-tipping because the recycling centres have been the Global Biodiversity Conference. This would closed. There is an increase in food waste because agree on a game-changing, post-2020 global bio- supply chains have struggled to adapt to sudden diversity framework. This was supposed to be the change with everyone eating at home now. There year that launched a decade of restoration and has been a surge in single-use surgical masks. The UK has seen an put nature-based solutions front and centre of Looking forward, how can we use what we increase in waste ­climate negotiations. have learned about environmental benefits and and fly-tipping risks associated with sharp drops in economic because the The imperative to act now activity to better understand the mechanics of recycling centres It is not too late to make a difference to biodiver- environmental sustainability? How can we avoid have been closed. sity, to natural capital, to nature, but only if we rushing back into the flight path of disaster when There is an increase start now. Delays to these international meetings the pandemic loosens its hold? It is surely time to in food waste are not helpful, because change is needed at every create policies that recognise we need to have because supply level, from local to global. The 2019 report from clean air to breathe and water to drink. chains have the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and We can take some lessons from communica- struggled to adapt to Ecosystem Services (IPBES) said: “Through tions around Covid-19: how to explain in human sudden change with transformative change, nature can still be con- terms why it is necessary to take difficult actions everyone eating at served, restored and used sustainably.” Transfor- in pursuit of a more important, strategic outcome. home now. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 19 CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Ecology is often Prioritising important strategic outcomes over extinction, we need to shore-up those natural eco- misunderstood and immediate wants is not something that human systems and invest in things like agro-forestry, quietly left to one brains are generally very good at. regenerative agriculture and mangrove restoration. side. In reality, it What should happen now? First, it is really Targets should be set for the protection of needs to be at the important to understand the interdependencies much larger areas if we are really to preserve eco- centre of things. between climate change and biodiversity loss; systems structurally and functionally. Ultimately, after all, the outcomes of both are closely linked. the aim should be to place 30% of land and sea Ecology is often misunderstood and quietly left to areas under conservation measures with 10% one side. In reality, it needs to be at the centre of strictly protected. things. How we interact with the environment is Reporting on biodiversity and ecosystem ser- important in all policy making. We should be vices should be mandatory for companies along- testing out policy decisions in tax, in transport, in side their climate reporting. If the wider effects on healthcare, against their impact on nature. biodiversity are not included, you have not really Biodiversity assessment should be main- understood the issue about carbon emissions. streamed across all land-use decisions. There Finally, we should think about economics as should be a natural infrastructure plan – how will though the environment matters. If Amsterdam we support the ecosystems that support us? Our can do it, other cities – and indeed policy makers global food system, for example, is vulnerable to – can. While the twin crises of biodiversity loss biodiversity loss: if we lose pollinators, we lose 35% and climate change may seem more nebulous than of our global crops. Of the million species at risk of Covid-19, they are much more threatening. ☐ Revisiting and strengthening the targets agreed in Paris Peter Betts

he UK has been chosen to host the next major climate meeting, which was to SUMMARY have been at the end of this year in TGlasgow but will now be at the end of 2021. It was • The Glasgow climate conference in 2021 will be inevitable, given Covid, that it would be delayed. an opportunity to revisit Nationally-Determined Glasgow will be different from the big Paris Contributions (NDCs) Agreement of 2015. Paris negotiated a treaty, • The NDCs agreed in Paris in 2015 will only Peter Betts has a wide range whereas there is comparatively little to negotiate reduce emissions by around a third of that of roles including Strategic in Glasgow. Alongside the Paris Agreement, needed to stabilise climate with 2˚ of warming Advisor at Willis Towers there were commitments from countries to • The UK Presidency will be looking to get countries Watson; Senior Fellow to raise the level of their NDCs at the European Climate reduce their emissions. These were called Foundation; Expert Adviser ‘Nationally-Determined Contributions’. These • The rescheduled conference will now be well to the UK Climate Change were significant and would reduce emissions by after the US elections which may offer time to Committee; Senior Advisor about a third of what was needed to stay on track change the geopolitics, at least on climate to the Director-General of the International Renewable for 2˚C global warming, but that left a big gap. • The UK will have to lead by example and prioritise Energy Agency; and Visiting Paris also provided for these targets to be climate in its diplomatic engagement. Professor of Practice at revisited every five years. Glasgow is the first of the LSE Grantham School. these opportunities. Revisions of NDCs will Previously, he was Director, International Climate and probably happen not in Glasgow itself, but in NDCs adopted at the time of the Paris Agree- Energy, in the Department national capitals before the conference opens. ment, though, will only take us to about 54Gt. for Business Energy and In the absence of action by countries around So, essentially, Glasgow, to get on track for 2˚, Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the world, emissions might reach about 64 giga- would have to agree further emissions reductions where he coordinated overall UK policy on international tonnes of CO2 by 2030. To be on track for 2˚ the of 13-15 billion tonnes (25% against current lev- energy and climate change, world should – according to UNEP - be emitting els), while to be on track for 1.5˚ the figure would including the UNFCCC around about 41Gt in 2030, while to be on track be 30 billion tonnes. Yet countries do not see negotiations. for 1.5˚ that figure drops to about 24Gt. The climate change as a first order issue, even though

20 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT the EU and the UK are increasingly very ­ambitious. So the likelihood of getting increased overall reductions on this scale at this conference are small. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggested pre-Covid that the very best that might be politi- cally feasible could be about a 6Gt reduction, not enough to bring us on track for temperature goals. Of that figure, around half might come from China. Virtually all of the world’s growth in emissions is coming from emerging economies and developing countries, so we have to persuade them to engage. Pre-Covid, the UK Government already under- stood how challenging the ambition gap was. The geopolitics were bad and much worse than they were in Paris, which was a uniquely benign set of circumstances in 2015. There were also issues for the COP Presidency: the UK has other major pri- orities such as Brexit, and climate was not on glob- budget, and some Member States have also had The European Green al leaders’ minds, even before Covid. green stimulus programmes though there have Deal is a set of The first priority of the UK Presidency in its been risks in Europe as elsewhere that Govern- policy initiatives COP strategy pre-Covid was as much ambition ments protect high carbon incumbents like the by the European on country pledges as possible, obviously. This automotive and aviation industries. Commission which would be in the form not only of higher ambition Covid has stimulated behavioural change but aim to make the EU for 2030 through NDCs, but through ambitious will such changes be permanent? Will people go climate neutral long term goals to reach net zero emissions. back to travelling or will they continue to use in 2050. The second was to drive bottom-up change in video conferencing? That could have a long-term the real world and the economy which can take us effect on emissions. further. There a risk of greenwash here, but there Perhaps the experience of Covid will help us is also great potential: renewable energy, on a understand that preparing for big risks, particu- ­levellised cost basis, is cheaper than coal in most larly those we know are coming (like climate parts of the world. Coal persists often for politi- change) is essential. It would have been massive- cal/economy reasons, not because it is actually ly cheaper for us to have prepared for Coronavi- more cost-effective. Electric vehicles will soon, if rus had we known it was coming. not already, be cheaper than internal combustion The geopolitical situation is not good and engines. The UK would look to accelerate and Covid has accentuated the strains: the relation- build on these trends. There would also be a ship between China and the USA, for example, major focus led by Mark Carney on incorporat- (whether Trump or Biden wins) is much more ing climate risks into investment decisions. adversarial than it was a few years ago, and the The third thing that the UK wanted to do was same is true to a lesser extent between the EU and to rally the world around a narrative, and to build China. Perhaps climate can become an area of on the signals of higher NDCs and real economy shared interest where countries can cooperate; on progress to continue to signal that the trend biodiversity as well. towards a low carbon economy is irreversible. It was inevitable for public health reasons that the conference would have to be postponed, but Covid and beyond that means it is pushed back well beyond the US Inevitably, Covid has soaked up the political election; this offers an opportunity to change the ­oxygen in most countries of the world, with a risk political mood, particularly if the extra time that climate would be pushed down the agenda. could be used to reach an understanding on cli- The strategy retains the elements above but needs mate between a Biden-led USA and China. to take account of this political reality. Finally, the expectations on the UK are going As we come out of the worst of this crisis, we to be very high. The Government will have to are going to need fiscal stimulus packages to get raise its own NDC target for example and increase the economy moving again. These must be cli- its climate finance. And it will need to be highly mate-smart and sustainable. The EU has made a active in convening, while using its diplomatic start with the Green Deal. That is only the EU capital to lead the global debate on climate. ☐ fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 21 CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT Applying evidence to policy

Gideon Henderson

umanity has, in effect, been running a series of experiments on our planet and SUMMARY the data is there to learn from what we Hhave been doing. The Covid outbreak has led to a • Changes in human behaviour from the pandemic huge change in behaviour. This has, for example, have helped us understand more about the way resulted in changes to carbon emissions and air humans react with the environment quality. We can see what the impact of a dramatic • Air quality is one area where interactions between the environment and human health Professor Gideon Henderson reduction in road traffic on air quality can be, par- FRS became Defra’s ticularly for us in Europe. become apparent Chief Scientific Adviser When we look at the data for one of the pollut- • The risk of zoonosis is increasing due to in October 2019 and is a ants, nitrous oxide, there has been a substantial environmental degradation Professor of Earth Sciences at the Department of reduction as a consequence of lower transport • The link between human health and a healthy Earth Sciences, University use and other changes. That has not been the environment is becoming ever clearer of Oxford. He is also a case for all pollutants. One of the others, fine • There is a recognition that climate change and Senior Research Fellow at particulate material – PM2.5 – has, at least in the biodiversity loss are even bigger challenges than University College Oxford, Covid and will require long-term action. and an Adjunct Associate UK, remained remarkably constant. So there is Research Scientist at the an opportunity here to learn from this experi- Lamont Doherty Earth ment that we have run on our planet about the Observatory of Columbia relationship between air quality and our trans- – where a disease jumps from animal to human – is University. In 2013, he was elected a Fellow of the Royal port needs. It is likely that PM2.5 is controlled by probably increasing because of the environmental Society. His research uses a diversity of factors in addition to car transport. degradation that we have caused to our planet. geochemistry to understand That understanding can help to inform policy Deforestation in particular is leading to closer inter- surface earth processes, and is one of the things that the Department for actions between humans and wildlife. This in turn particularly those relating to climate, the ocean, and the Transport is looking at in the UK. There is a is leading to greater zoonotic risk both now and in carbon cycle. sense that we can learn from this process and the future. That should therefore strengthen our there will not be a straightforward return to the motivation to steward our environment better. old world of pre-Covid. There is an associated relationship with cli- So that is one experiment. Our impact on bio- mate – if the climate warms, the risk of zoonosis diversity and the consequent changes in nature is increases. This particularly the case for vec- another – there is a great deal to learn and to bring tor-borne diseases like Zika and West Nile, which into our policy-making from these. are being transported to higher latitudes, includ- Covid has also pointed to a relationship ing the UK, as we expect a warmer climate into between our environment and our health. There the future. That is another reason why we should are several strands to this, one of which is air qual- care about controlling climate. ity. It is clear now, through evidence from other While those are two negative reasons why we countries as well as the UK, that there is a relation- should care more about our health now because ship between the chances of dying of Covid and of Covid, there is also a positive outcome. People the air quality in the area where a person lives. have really recognised how much they enjoy This is very likely driven by the fact that bad air being out in the environment and seeing green It is clear now, quality leads to a number of health complications things around them. There is already strong evi- through evidence and risks, leading to those ‘underlying health con- dence of an explicit link between both physical from other countries ditions’ that people hear about on the news asso- and mental health and a person’s access to the as well as the UK, ciated with individuals who have died of Covid. environment. There is a strong statistical that there is a So there is an increased recognition, from this anti-correlation between anti-depressant use and relationship disease, that there are health implications from liv- green space – people use fewer anti-depressants if between the ing in a bad environment and living with bad air. they are exposed to green space in their life. This chances of dying of That is reinforcing the conviction that we must clean recognition has been dramatically enhanced Covid and the air up this and many other aspects of our environment. during the current pandemic and we can use that quality in the area Another recognition that has grown significant- to drive new policy directions. where a person lives. ly over the past months is that the risk of zoonosis Lessons for food and food supply are really

22 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk CORONAVIRUS AND THE ENVIRONMENT quite difficult to tease apart. Food supplies are age through food production choices in the future. Climate and clearly vulnerable because of the Covid outbreak. The recognition of the food supply challenge will biodiversity loss are One response would be to grow more food and for create some policy drivers that are currently quite bigger challenges individual nations to be more self-sufficient. hard to predict and it will be interesting to see how than Covid, they just However, that response would lead to land-use the resultant policies interact with the environment. happen more slowly pressure if we are trying to grow more trees for our I believe there is a very strong sense in Govern- and need more long- environment and grow more food at the same time ment that the country should not go back to the term action. – we will have a competition between those two. ‘old normal’. There is a desire to see what can be Another approach might follow from a recog- learned from lockdown and the process of dealing nition that we are not growing our food efficiently with the Covid response. There is also a wish to – we could make it more efficiently and have a see a green dimension to the recovery. more efficient system. Why are we still picking In addition, there is widespread recognition our fruit and vegetables in fields with migrant that climate and biodiversity loss are bigger chal- labourers rather than in factories or in vertical lenges than Covid, they just happen more slowly farms with robots? We can investigate different and need more long-term action than the more ways to produce food and we may be able better to immediate action that is being applied to counter control greenhouse gas and environmental dam- the pandemic. ☐ The debate he pandemic has led to significant Reuse and recycling were discussed, the supply After the behavioural change, and evidence suggests and disposal of Personal Protective Equipment presentations, that some of this may last beyond the pan- (PPE) during Covid was a particular example. members of the Tdemic. Behavioural change alone is not sufficient: it Moves towards a circular economy will be import- audience raised must be combined with Government action. Coun- ant, but the right incentives need to be put in place. issue including: tries may have different priorities – some develop- Will democratic governments take such draco- similarities ing countries will want to see more aircraft flying. nian measures for climate as for Covid? Democra- between Prior to this year, global emergencies such as a cies need to step up now and take action before such different crises; pandemic seemed very distant to people – now drastic steps are needed. Democracies can inter- behaviour change; that the possibility is apparent, they may think vene in capitalist systems to promote the changes international about the environment in a similar way. If the pub- they want. If the right incentives are put in place, coordination; lic’s view of science had been enhanced by the people and companies can be profitable by driving and the benefits ­crisis, it may be easier to communicate what the technologies and activities in the right direction. ☐ of early action. science says is needed to tackle climate change. The Covid crisis can provide a stimulus for a green recovery, but climate change needs to be FURTHER INFORMATION tackled internationally. Action is needed now. In some places where national governments are not Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update. International Monetary Fund acting, sub-national authorities are stepping up. www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/02/Global-Fossil-Fuel- The assumption that flying will steadily increase Subsidies-Remain-Large-An-Update-Based-on-Country-Level-Estimates-46509 should be challenged: some countries such as Swe- den have seen a cultural move away from flying. Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 Scientific conferences are the primary reason why forced confinement.Nature www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x university staff fly. Conferences have gone online because of Covid. If that continues, a significant Cleaning up the Electricity System. Democracy reduction in university emissions can be achieved. https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/56/cleaning-up-the-electricity-system The lack of global coordination in the Covid crisis has parallels for tackling climate change. Bet- Tiny Tech Needed for Rapid Progress Towards Emissions Targets (2020) ter international action would have been better for Science www.aaas.org/news/tiny-tech-needed-rapid-progress-towards- Covid. Countries have tackled the pandemic sep- emissions-targets arately, but that will not be possible with climate. Unlike Covid, climate action does have a global Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C process; the question is whether it is strong enough climate target. Nature www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1364-3 to tackle the problem effectively. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 23 SUPPLY CHAINS AND RESILIENCE A meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 22 June 2020 looked at how UK businesses may emerge from the coronavirus, with a particular focus on how global supply chains might be different. Creating agile, robust and responsive supply chains Juliette White

upply chains can provide a genuine com- mercial advantage, for a company and also SUMMARY for a country. Viewing supply chains as a Sstrategic opportunity, not taps to turn on and off, • Supply chains provide strategic opportunities means being able to leverage more and better for businesses and national economies healthcare. More broadly, the same applies to • Lessons from the Covid pandemic can be the economy. applied to other challenges to supply chain operation Juliette White is VP for Within the UK, as a life sciences company, Global External Sourcing in AstraZeneca sees the full product lifecycle from • Ensuring that supply chains can withstand AstraZeneca. Since joining end to end: from the true innovative discovery, disruption, even at a global scale, is critically the company in 1990, after important graduating with a degree in through development manufacturing and then Psychology, she has held commercial manufacturing to, ultimately, the • Global businesses cannot be over-reliant on one a wide number of HR roles effect on the patient. We employ about 8,500 peo- territory and need the ability to transfer to other both in UK and US, including ple in the UK, but there is also significant value parts of the chain in other territories when a period of time in a supply necessary chain role within Operations. creation in jobs that occur as a result of our pres- Juliette returned to HR in ence in the UK and from the life sciences sector • The UK has several good examples of 2008 where she headed more generally. AstraZeneca is a significant Government and industry working together to up the Global HR service investor in R&D. make supply chains more resilient. centres, before joining Operations in 2010 as HR VP. Internationally, we have 26 sites in 16 coun- She took over the role of VP tries and a very extensive external network that of Global External Sourcing constitutes an agile, robust and responsive supply been fast and responsive. We have seen surges in in 2014. chain. Together, that results in about 25 billion patient demands and needs, but also – quite tablets annually and about 1.4 billion finished rightly and properly – countries want to create an packs, all of which ultimately pass through to additional level of inventory to ensure that patients. Our external network ensures that patient demand can be met by medicines on a while we are present in a number of countries, continuous basis. but not over-dependent on one location or The planning that we did for Brexit has helped one economy. us, in three fundamental ways. It has helped us build additional resilience into the supply chain. Ability to deliver We stress-tested our supply chains to determine Over the past few months, Covid has really illus- where the weakest link was and whether that relat- trated that there is nothing more important than ed to an internal or external asset. We reviewed all the ability to supply life-changing medicines to our inventory levels and subsequently created patients. Every single one of us who takes a drug more of a buffer to make sure that we could contin- believes it will do what it says and, importantly, ue to protect patients. Importantly, we have looked that it will be there when we need it. So ensuring at new routes for despatching medicines. We came that supply chains can withstand and tolerate to call on these again as the Covid crisis hit. Covid has shown interruption at a global scale, as we have seen that there is nothing during Covid, is absolutely critical. Looking to a new normal more important The manufacturing of pharmaceutical prod- As we emerge from that Covid crisis, we need to than the ability to ucts has been one of the most resilient supply look for our ‘new normal’. The pharmaceutical supply life-changing chains in recent times and while there is always a industry has worked extensively with the UK medicines to level of stockpiling and inventory-building, what Government and the NHS in order to tap into the patients. we have needed most is a supply chain that has global supply chain, sourcing materials that

24 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SUPPLY CHAINS AND RESILIENCE might be in short supply in one location, pulling Our global supply chains must be resilient them in from another. Looking forward, we need to ensure we have a against future pandemics, or indeed any other really strong and vibrant life science sector in the large-scale business interruptions. UK and one that is underpinned by strong and secure supply chains. That needs to involve a sen- Cutting edge medicines and cutting edge sible blend of onshoring while also recognising device manufacturing make for a great domestic that we are a global business and part of a global capability in the UK, but it is a capability that will industry. Our global supply chains must be resil- not be just for patients here, it is a capability that ient against future pandemics, or indeed any creates extraordinary export capability as well. other large-scale business interruptions. AstraZeneca will continue to work with all par- So as a business we cannot be over-reliant on ties to identify gaps in the supply chain and work any one territory. In simple terms, we need to responsibly to eliminate them. There are exam- make sure we have a complex network which can ples of cutting edge capability in the UK, whether respond when events occur in one location which it is the Medicines Manufacturing Innovation necessitate a transfer to another. It means Centre (MMIC) in Glasgow, or the Vaccines Man- dual-sourcing many key products to eliminate ufacturing and Innovation Centre (VMIC) in single points of failure. It means ensuring that the Oxford. Those are really good examples of where sourcing strategy carries additional and proper industry and Government can work in partner- levels of inventory, that it has resilience built into ship to build great innovation and resilience with- it and that it has the ability to switch production in the UK, for the UK, while also creating real from one source to another. value that can be exported on behalf of the UK. ☐ The priorities for the post- Covid supply chain Lenny Koh

he Covid-19 pandemic, which has forced industry to adapt and respond, has been SUMMARY an eye-opening experience for different Ttypes of supply chain. The future supply chain in • Most countries have suffered a loss in economic the UK will need to optimise stability, security, activity in 2020 but are forecast to return to sustainability and resilience in order to prepare for growth in 2021 the recovery. • There are lessons to be learned from the experience of Covid-19 as we look to build a Professor Lenny Koh is the Most economies in the world are experiencing Founder and Director of negative growth this year, except China. Covid-19 new, more resilient supply chain structure for the future the Advanced Resource has made a major disruption to the whole supply Efficiency Centre, and the chain. The US economy is expected to contract by • Social, environmental and economic capital are Head of Communication, all important in planning the supply chain of the Partnership and 6.5% this year, but next year it will rebound back to Internationalisation of the 5% growth. The Chinese growth for this year is 1% future Energy Institute, at the but next year it will go back to 8%. The UK situa- • We will need to prioritise the international University of Sheffield. Her tion for next year is 6%, which is actually a very partnerships we want to build upon work focusses on advancing the understanding and positive number, but for this year it is set to see a • In the post-Covid-19 world, the key challenge resolution of complex drop of 8.3%. Looking at the EU, economic activi- will be to achieve more collaboration and supply chains using ty is forecast to drop by 7.5% and next year it is only expansion with the global supply chain. interdisciplinary expected to grow by 6%. So, the UK and European approaches crossing supply chain management economies will have similar performance. and information systems responded to the sudden increase in demand for domains. This is designed to Planning for recovery products like masks, ventilators and others move supply chains towards There are many examples of the way businesses during the crisis. There already exists a level of resource sustainability. have adapted operations and supply chains have resilience in our supply chain to respond to fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 25 SUPPLY CHAINS AND RESILIENCE

Supply chains have responded to the sudden increase in demand for products such as masks ImageFlow Shutterstock/ during the crisis.

increased need. The question is whether this can there is a great opportunity, from this point become the norm? Can businesses learn from onwards, to focus on increasing export capabilities Covid and respond better, thereby minimising in different sectors. disruption and impact? The UK has trading partnerships with many Although there are positive signs, there are also countries but as we plan for the future we will need some lessons to learn. The supply chain has expe- to come to a consensus about the international rienced fragmentation and shortages of certain partnerships and the key sectors we want to prior- key items. This is usually caused by inefficient itise, especially where we have identified critical resource management and inventory manage- resources in the supply chain. ment in a global supply chain, where firms have In the post-Covid-19 world, the key challenge had to rely on imports. When disruptions occur in will be to achieve more collaboration and expan- these situations, they have a knock-on effect across sion with the global supply chain, rather than the supply chain. Without a strong and resilient retraction, so that the economy bounces back. supply chain and without knowing the critical Then it will be important to involve more SMEs points in our own supply chain, it is very difficult going forward. to plan ahead. There are a number of specific features that we may see in the UK supply chain of the future. It is Prioritisation important to keep expanding the global links, To plan for the recovery in the UK economy, it is while recognising that in having a global supply crucial to understand the critical aspects of the chain a multi-lateral approach will increase its supply chain. It is important then to link this to security, stability, sustainability and resilience. the green economy if we are to achieve a sustain- That will also result in a better economic environ- able future. Social capital, environmental capital ment and impact, as well as having favourable and economic capital are all important: without social and environmental impacts. capturing all three dimensions, it will be very dif- A purely national-level supply chain will have a ficult to create a viable plan for a green recovery. similar structure, but it will tend to have lower eco- Critical resources and sectors include: materi- nomic impact as a result of lack of access to the als and manufacturing; energy; food; digital; global economy. It would, nevertheless, have more ­telecom; transport; pharma and medical. Based local environmental and social impacts, leading to on recent experience, many of these sectors and a positive influence on net zero targets. supply chains interact, both within the UK and Moving forward, a future supply chain that is internationally. more global, one that will optimise environmental, The UK is currently a net-importer: there was economic and social impacts, will be a win/win a net export deficit of $220 billion in 2019. So situation for all parties. ☐

26 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk SUPPLY CHAINS AND RESILIENCE The importance of resilience John Loughhead

tions is that we have seen, very clearly, a dramatic SUMMARY growth in e-commerce in the way we manage our economy. That, as we go forward, will significant- • Covid-19 has resulted in an increased focus on ly touch on the nature of our post-Covid business, the resilience of supply chains because the development, adaptation and accep- • The trade-off between resilience, efficiency and tation of that approach will squeeze some of the cost is being re-evaluated by many organisations retail businesses that we are accustomed to using • Levelling up will create new opportunities as and the way they have exploited their physical Professor John Loughhead resources are re-distributed presence on the high street. CB OBE FREng FTSE is the • Standards are important and can be used to Among the declared objectives of the current Chief Scientific Adviser at the increase resilience Government are net zero goals for our emissions Department for Business, Energy and Industrial • The introduction of new technology will enable and the process of levelling up economic activity Strategy (BEIS). In the us to increase resilience in supply chains. in the regions. By definition, levelling up will summer of 2019, he was mean a different distribution of resources which, also appointed Chair of the of itself, gives greater opportunities for regional Mission Innovation Steering Committee. Mission he UK has, for a number of years, run a capability in supply: this should help resilience. Innovation is the primary very open economy and as a result we Of course, regional disparities are generational intergovernmental forum have enjoyed the benefits of a very effi- in nature. They have not occurred overnight and to progress clean energy Tcient, ‘just in time’ method of supply for much of it will be impossible to change them immediately, innovation and was launched at COP21 in Paris. John’s our economic activity. This has been optimised but the basis of what needs to be done in order to professional career has been on operating cost and economic cost. The crisis improve productivity and growth has not changed. predominantly in industrial of the past months has demonstrated certain We have witnessed, quite clearly, the enormous research and development shortcomings of this system in terms of its resil- flexibility and adaptability that companies operat- for the electronics and electrical power industries. ience in these difficult times. ing within the UK have shown within their existing We have seen quite clearly the increased recog- processes, during the difficulties of the pandemic. nition by many companies and organisations of the That has shown the value that can be achieved by importance of resilience in their supply chains, doing things in a different way. We have seen, for particularly when faced with unexpected situa- instance, additive manufacturing being applied at tions. There is a need to consider more carefully much greater scale, enabling organisations to move operating practices and processes as a way of seeing into very different areas in a rapid and agile way. what might be done to increase that resilience. A green recovery, which will inevitably involve This can be achieved in a number of ways. Some doing many processes in a different way, will offer of the responses have involved re-assessing the an opportunity for changes in systems that could, nature of the supply chain itself, and the criticality themselves, be made more resilient. of the products, services or inputs that it deals with. Standards are important in all supply chains There is quite clearly a trade-off between resilience, and we saw, during the search to supply PPE, that efficiency and cost. As we emerge from this crisis some of the equipment sourced, although and move into a new way of operating, one of the described in a particular way, proved not to be suit- things we will see is an increased dialogue about the able for the standards required in a UK environ- extent to which we are prepared to make those ment. Looking forward to potentially driving dif- trade-offs in order to improve future efficiency. ferent international standards in a different kind of We saw, during the The nature and resilience of the UK’s infra- supply chain (operating internationally as well as search to supply structure is critical in determining the nature of the nationally) there is an opportunity to think about PPE, that some of supply chains it will operate. This is not just about how those standards can be developed in such a the equipment the physical infrastructure of ports, roads, railways way as to help improve the resilience of the process. sourced, although and air traffic, but also the digital infrastructure As an engineer, I believe that as we go forward described in a that we are increasingly using. with a declared intent to place a greater focus on particular way, The experience of the past few months has supporting R&D, the introduction of new tech- proved not to be advanced our application of digital technology, nology will itself enable us to apply our techno- suitable for the probably in a way that would otherwise have logical capability with an eye on the resilience of standards required taken years to come about. One of the implica- our activity, perhaps more than in the past. ☐ in a UK environment. fst journal www.foundation.org.uk November 2020, Volume 22(8) 27 SUPPLY CHAINS AND RESILIENCE The debate In the panel question was asked about how compa- and IP. It is usual within such systems to have discussion that nies determine their level of resilience. ­multiple lines of supply for any key components. followed the main Most will have an idea of the cost of not The issue of whether supply chains for critical presentations, beingA resilient. In fact, companies regularly test medical supplies should be specifically designat- a number of their business continuity plans against their abil- ed and protected was discussed. Upstream supply issues were ity to respond to events and they will have chains are heavily interdependent and complex, raised, including: assessed the likelihood of such occurrences. It with many chemicals sharing the same starting measuring was recognised that increased resilience does not materials. That said, in the Covid crisis, the chal- resilience; always entail additional cost – if resources are dis- lenge has been more about the transport of mate- standards; critical tributed across different countries, companies rials than merely access to them. There are also infrastructure; and can flex these to match differing financial situa- different considerations for companies and coun- medical supplies. tions in a variety of locations. tries about different medicines – whether they The issue whether standards can inhibit inno- make a ‘cost play’ for more established medicines vation was raised. There is some evidence that or an ‘innovation play’ for newer medicines. they have done so on occasions, so it is important The nature and resilience of supply chains will for new standards to be developed on an outcome be of increasing importance as companies and rather than a prescriptive basis, where scope for countries emerge from the Covid pandemic. We innovation is built into the development of such remain a world with an interdependency of standards. In terms of standards and environmen- resource, so hopefully the economic system will be tal performance as we move to a low carbon econ- able to generate the recovery that is needed, with omy, standards could play a role in raising envi- strong supply chains. ☐ ronmental performance although the difficulties of reliable environmental accounting were noted.

Critical resilience The resilience of critical national infrastructure, particularly communications technology, is crit- ical but the UK needs (working with key partners where necessary) to have sovereign oversight of these. The supply chain for such critical infra- structure has not been well protected in the past, but the UK could identify domestic leaders in dif- ferent technologies and develop a protected sup- ply chain for hardware, whilst ensuring these companies also invest in skills and R&D, which will help for the development of software. Such infrastructure usually involves complex systems, where the development and management of the system itself is a significant element of the value

FURTHER INFORMATION

OECD. Food Supply Chains and Covid-19: Impacts and Policy Lessons www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/food-supply-chains-and-covid-19-impacts-and-policy-lessons- 71b57aea

UK Government. Strengthening UK supply chains: good practice from industry and government www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-supply-chains-good-practice-from-industry-and-government

World Economic Forum. Dashboard for a New Economy – Towards a New Compass for Post Covid Recovery www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Dashboard_for_a_New_Economy_2020.pdf

28 November 2020, Volume 22(8) fst journal www.foundation.org.uk MAJOR SUPPORTERS IN 2020/2021

A H R Arts and Humanities Research Council, Haskel Family Foundation Research England, UKRI UKRI Heads of University Centres of Biomedical Rolls-Royce Association for Innovation, Research and Science (HUCBMS) Royal Geographical Society (with the IBG) Technology Organisations (AIRTO) Health and Safety Executive Royal Society of Biology AstraZeneca High Value Manufacturing Catapult Royal Society of Chemistry Royal Society of Medicine B I Royal Statistical Society Biochemical Society Imperial College London S Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Innovate UK, UKRI Science and Technology Facilities Council, Research Council, UKRI Institute of Biomedical Science UKRI BP International Ltd Institute of Materials, Minerals & Mining Society of Maritime Industries BPE Solicitors LLP Institute of Mathematics and its Society of Operations Engineers British Academy Applications Sovcomflot (UK) Ltd British Geological Survey Institute of Quarrying T Brunel University London Institution of Chemical Engineers The Academy of Medical Sciences BSI Group Institution of Mechanical Engineers The IET C J The Lady Butterworth Chartered Association of Building Japan Society for the Promotion of Science The Medical Schools Council Engineers Johnson Matthey Plc The Royal Academy of Engineering Chartered Institute of Credit Management The Royal Commission for the Exhibition of K Chartered Institute of Plumbing and 1851 Keele University Heating Engineering The Royal Society King’s College London Chartered Institution of Water and The Society of Maritime Industries Knowledge Transfer Network Limited Environmental Management U Comino Foundation L University College London Cranfield University Leiden University University of Birmingham University of Dundee D M University of East Anglia Make UK Defence and Security Accelerator University of Edinburgh McLaren Group Ltd Defence Science and Technology University of Glasgow Medical Research Council, UKRI Laboratory University of Hull Met Office Department of Health and Social Care University of Kent University of Leeds E N University of Leicester Economic and Social Research Council, National Physical Laboratory University of Nottingham UKRI Natural Environment Research Council, University of Plymouth EIB Institute UKRI Natural History Museum University of Reading Elsevier b.v. Nottingham Trent University University of Sheffield Engineering and Physical Sciences University of Southampton Research Council, UKRI O University of Warwick ERA Foundation Open University University of Westminster University of York G P GlaxoSmithKline Parliamentary and Scientific Committee W Genomics England Peter Jost Memorial Foundation Willis Towers Watson

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