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Russia Arms Control 2020.Indb PRIMAKOV NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (IMEMO) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2019 MOSCOW IMEMO 2020 PRIMAKOV NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (IMEMO) Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2019 is dedicated to the intellectual legacy of Academician Andrei Sakharov in the lead up to the 100th anniversary of his birth RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2019 Foreword by Alexander Dynkin Chief editors: Alexey Arbatov, Sergey Oznobishchev Editor: Marianna Yevtodyeva Translation editor: Leon Geyer Moscow IMEMO 2020 УДК 327 ББК 64.4(0) Rus95 Rus95 Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security. IMEMO Supplement to the Russian Edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2019 / Ed. by Alexey Arbatov, Sergey Oznobishchev, Leon Geyer and Marianna Yevtodyeva. – Moscow, IMEMO, 2020. – 175 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0578-9 DOI: 10.20542/978-5-9535-0578-9 The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian Edition of the 2019 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. It covers such important issues as challenges and options for strategic arms control, risks to the non-proliferation regime, threats of military use of artifi cial intelligence and current state of Russia–NATO relations. This year’s volume also provides research on problems of development of the Middle East confl icts, activity of the Islamic State in the Middle East and Asia, Indian and Pakistani nuclear doctrines and strategies and the possibilities for cooperation and competition between countries in the Arctic region. To view IMEMO publications, please visit our website at https://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535-0578-9 © IMEMO, 2020 CONTENTS FOREWORD .......................................................................................7 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS .......................................................................................9 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS ....13 1. THE WORLD OF THE 2020S AND RUSSIA ...........................15 Dmitry TRENIN 2. STRATEGIC ARMS CONTROL: CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS .................................................................................25 Alexey ARBATOV Extending New START ......................................................................26 Next START bilateral outline .............................................................28 Preserving the core of the INF Treaty ................................................ 33 3. NPT PROBLEMS IN LIGHT OF INCREASED COMPETITION IN THE GLOBAL MARKET OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS AND TECHNOLOGIES ....................37 Anatoly DIAKOV Nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear energy market at various stages of NFC ...................................................................................... 39 Competition and control of nuclear exports ........................................46 Risks to the non-proliferation regime ................................................. 55 4. NATO-RUSSIA RELATIONS AND ARMS CONTROL IN EUROPE ..................................................................59 Sergey OZNOBISHCHEV NATO-Russia: no breakthrough in relations ......................................60 “Nuclear problems” of European security ..........................................64 Conventional arms control in Europe: interrupted process.................70 4 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 5. CHALLENGES AND THREATS OF MILITARY USE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ...............................................79 Pavel KARASEV The technological level .......................................................................79 The application level ...........................................................................83 The policy level ...................................................................................87 PART II. EXPERT INSIGHTS .....................................................95 6. ARCTIC IN THE HIGH POLITICS ...........................................97 Andrei ZAGORSKI and Andrei TODOROV Competition in the Arctic? ..................................................................99 Political uncertainty .......................................................................... 105 Introduction of the notifi cation- based procedure for foreign warships and Extension of the NSR .................................................. 107 Russia’s possible withdrawal from the 1990 Agreement................... 112 7. MIDDLE EAST CONFLICTS: CORRELATION BETWEEN LOCAL AND REGIONAL FACTORS.................... 115 Alexander SHUMILIN Evolution of the concept “the Middle East confl ict” .........................115 From civil war to regional confl ict .....................................................117 Syria, Libya, Yemen: regional actors and strategies ......................... 120 Geopolitics in the context of religion ................................................ 128 8. THE INDO-PAKISTANI MUTUAL DETERRENCE: STRATEGIC CULTURE AND NUCLEAR STRATEGY .........133 Konstantin BOGDANOV and Alexey KUPRIYANOV India: nuclear project development ................................................... 133 Possible doctrinal evolution .............................................................. 136 Nuclear doctrine of Pakistan ..............................................................141 “Cold Start”: impact on Pakistani nuclear strategy ........................... 143 9. TRANSFORMATION OF THE ISLAMIC STATE ................ 151 Stanislav IVANOV IS in the Middle East region and Asia .............................................. 153 CONTENTS 5 Likelihood of increased IS activity in Central Asian and CIS countries ............................................................................................ 158 Threat of IS penetration into Russia ................................................. 160 PART III. DOCUMENTS AND REFERENCE MATERIALS .................................................................................163 10. KEY DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON NATIONAL SECURITY, DEFENSE AND ARMS CONTROL (JANUARY – DECEMBER 2019) ......165 Sergey TSELITSKY Legislative acts .................................................................................. 165 Normative acts of the executive power ............................................. 167 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS ................................................. 173 FOREWORD This edition was conceived in 1993 as a joint project of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAS). An important part of this idea was the annual issue of the IMEMO Special Supplement to the SIPRI Yearbook, authored by the Institute’s leading scholars. This year’s edition of the SIPRI Yearbook in Russian is dedicated to the memory of the outstanding Soviet scientist Andrei Sakharov, whose centenary will be celebrated in 2021. Academician Andrei D. Sakharov was at the origins of nuclear weapons, and he was one of the most prominent peace activists in the USSR and abroad who advocated for human rights and for an end of the nuclear arms race. The Special Supplement opens with a conceptual review of the world of 2020s, which has striking diff erences from previous periods of development of international relations. The edition also provides an in-depth analysis of the current acute stage of arms control, primarily in the fi eld of strategic off ensive arms, problems of nuclear nonproliferation in light of increasing competition in the nuclear materials and technologies market, and the possibilities of conventional arms control in Europe in the context of NATO-Russia relations. One of the chapters is focused on the “innovative” topic of challenges and threats of military use of artifi cial intelligence. In the Supplement’s Part II, Expert Insights, some current regional topics are detailed: policy of the leading states in the Arctic, analysis of the Middle East confl icts and tensions in the region, mutual nuclear deterrence of India and Pakistan, the transformation of the Islamic State terrorist organization (banned in Russia). The Supplement traditionally contains also background information – an overview of the key documents of the Russian Federation on national security, defence and arms control in 2019. Alexander DYNKIN 8 RUSSIAN AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY The creation and editing of the SIPRI 2019 Yearbook in Russian was led by Alexey Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev. Marianna Yevtodyeva has coordinated the work for preparing and publishing the SIPRI Yearbook and the IMEMO Special Supplement. Konstantin Bogdanov has made an important contribution to this work. I would like to thank in particular the authors of the IMEMO Special Supplement: Alexey Arbatov, Konstantin Bogdanov and Alexey Kupriyanov, Anatoly Diakov, Andrei Zagorski and Andrei Todorov, Stanislav Ivanov, Pavel Karasev, Sergey Oznobishchev, Dmitry Trenin, Alexander Shumilin and Sergey Tselitsky. I express deep gratitude to the Swiss Federal Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport for supporting of this publication. Academician Alexander Dynkin President of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences July 2020 ACRONYMS AC – Arctic
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