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Tayside and Central Scotland Transport Partnership 15 RTP/16/14 TAYSIDE AND CENTRAL SCOTLAND TRANSPORT PARTNERSHIP 8 MARCH 2016 GENERAL CONSULTATIONS REPORT BY STRATEGY MANAGER AND PROJECTS MANAGER This report asks the Partnership to note the joint RTP Chairs response to Transport Scotland’s Delivering the Goods - Consultation towards Scotland’s Rail Freight Strategy and seeks approval of a response to Network Rail’s Draft Scotland Route Study consultation. 1 RECOMMENDATIONS 1.1 That the Partnership: (i) notes the joint RTP Chairs response to Transport Scotland’s Delivering the Goods - Consultation towards Scotland’s Rail Freight Strategy, as detailed in Appendix A; and (ii) approves the proposed response to Network Rail’s Draft Scotland Route Study consultation, as detailed in Appendix B. 2 BACKGROUND 2.1 Transport Scotland published Delivering the Goods - Consultation towards Scotland’s Rail Freight Strategy on 22 October 2015. Responses had to be submitted by 22 January 2016. 2.2 Network Rail published the Draft Scotland Route Study for consultation on 12 December 2015, ending on 10 March 2016. The final Route Study will be published in July 2016. 2.3 The Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) requires Network Rail to establish and maintain Route Studies across the GB rail network as part of the ‘Long Term Planning Process’ (LTPP) programme. The LTPP is designed to enable the rail industry to take account of strategic investment being made in Britain’s rail network over a 30 year time horizon. The LTPP, including Route Studies, replaces the previous system of Route Utilisation Strategies (RUS) which was the subject of a report to the Partnership on 14 December 2010 (Report RTP/10/46 refers). The Scotland Route Study outlines expected growth in usage between 2019 and 2043 and potential choices to enhance the network to meet the future needs of passenger and freight traffic. 1 3 DISCUSSION Delivering the Goods - Consultation towards Scotland’s Rail Freight Strategy 3.1 Transport Scotland issued a consultation document covering a range of issues to support the development of a high level strategy for a competitive, sustainable rail freight sector in Scotland. The document noted that rail freight’s predominant market, coal, is in rapid decline, but that rail has a significant role to play in Scotland’s economic growth through providing a safer, greener and more efficient way of transporting products and materials. 3.2 The Committee sought views on nine questions. A joint RTP Chairs response was compiled and submitted addressing these questions and incorporating individual and joint RTP views and previous submissions to Government and Transport Scotland on freight transport. The joint RTP Chairs submission is shown in Appendix A, which the Partnership is asked to endorse. Draft Scotland Route Study Purpose 3.3 The purpose of the Scotland Route Study is to provide an evidence base that will inform funders in Scotland when considering rail industry investment to improve connectivity, capacity and resilience on the existing network for Network Rail Control Periods 6 (2019-2024) and 7 (2024-2029). 3.4 The extent of the rail network coverage for the Scotland Route Study is the whole of the rail network in Scotland minus the East Coast Main Line (south of Edinburgh) and the West Coast Main Line. 3.5 The choices for funders have been developed from a starting point of making best use of the existing rail infrastructure to meet 2043 forecast demand. Where the outputs required cannot be delivered within the constraints of the current network, options to enhance the network have been developed. 3.6 The Route Study contains a Market Study which forecasts demand for passenger journeys undertaken wholly within Scotland. It has been combined with outputs from for Long Distance Market Study, for Anglo Scottish services, and Freight Market Study to consider the potential roles that the railway could play in supporting the Scottish economy to 2043. 3.7 In developing the investment choices the Study has taken into account key issues that are likely to shape the GB railway in the coming years; these relate to performance, resilience, construction of High Speed 2 (HS2) and the move towards a Digital Railway. 3.8 Funding choices for CP6 and CP7 have been identified, based on the rail network anticipated with the delivery of committed investments for the current Control Period 5, and prioritised on the following criteria: . to meet forecast demand . funder priorities . linked to asset renewals . enable future aspirations 2 . access to the HS2 network . reduce industry cost. 3.9 The funding choices can take two forms; those that can be put in place without significant changes to existing infrastructure (i.e. train lengthening, providing additional trains or stopping pattern variations) and infrastructure enhancements (i.e. changes to the physical network). Current demand and delivery 3.10 The Route Study defines five passenger markets: Glasgow; Edinburgh; Aberdeen; Interurban; and Rural, as well as the long distance passenger and freight markets which also make use of the Scottish rail network. 3.11 The Glasgow Market as defined extends as far north as Stirling, Alloa and Dunblane. Demand for travel is concentrated in the morning and evening peak periods. It is considered to be a mature commuter market served by a well-developed rail network with a high market share on many routes into the centre of Glasgow. 3.12 The Edinburgh Market extends as far north as Stirling and Dunblane. The rail commuter market is considered to be less mature than in Glasgow. Commuter travel is focussed on outer suburbs and longer distance travel to the city centre and major employment centres to the west of Edinburgh. 3.13 The Aberdeen Market stretches as far south as Montrose. As with Edinburgh, the rail commuter market is considered to be less mature than in Glasgow. Commuter travel is concentrated on a single line connecting Montrose, Aberdeen and Inverurie. 3.14 The Interurban Market, which includes the main routes through the Tactran region connecting Edinburgh/Glasgow with Aberdeen/Inverness, provides links between major centres within Scotland where the study suggests that journeys tend to be less focussed on peak arrival periods, with a more even all day demand. 3.15 Rural routes tend to have low frequency services and higher journey times, with recreational and tourism traffic providing a significant element of the passenger market. The only rural route within the Tactran region is the West Highlands line. Future Demand 3.16 The Market Study identified changes in city centre employment as being the primary driver of growth in commuter markets. Forecasts have been produced for morning peak travel from 2012 to 2023 and 2043. The forecast for the three urban markets are: . Glasgow Market – to increase by 47% by 2023 and 108% by 2043. Demand in 2023 is forecast to exceed available capacity on the corridor from Perth to Glasgow Queen Street. Edinburgh Market – to increase by 56% by 2023 and 114% by 2043. Demand in 2023 is forecast to exceed available capacity on the corridor from Fife to Edinburgh. Aberdeen Market – to increase by 52% by 2023 and 151% by 2043. 3 3.17 In the Interurban Market population change was identified as the principal driver of growth. This market is forecast to increase by 156% by 2023 and 206% by 2043. Demand in 2023 is forecast to be close to or to exceed available capacity on trains between Aberdeen/Dundee and Edinburgh/Glasgow. 3.18 The Rural Market forecasts were based on passenger forecast outputs from Abellio’s bid for the ScotRail franchise. On the West Highlands Mallaig/Oban - Glasgow route passenger numbers are forecast to increase by 52% by 2023 and 84% by 2043. 3.19 Conditional Outputs have been developed as part of the Market Study based on improving levels of connectivity, for example, by increasing opportunities to travel or reducing journey times between two locations; and ensuring that sufficient capacity exists to ensure that people can take advantage of the connectivity that already exists, such as the aspiration to accommodate forecast passenger demand on services into the key employment centres at peak times. The Conditional Outputs are aspirational levels of service based on the premise that improving transport connectivity will support Scotland’s economic and social aspirations. The Outputs involving services in the Tactran region are shown in Appendix C. Options 3.20 The estimated growth rates for passenger demand in each corridor have been used to compare forecast passenger numbers with the train service and rolling stock assumptions for the end of the current CP5 to identify where train capacity will be sufficient to meet the demand forecast for 2023 and 2043 should no infrastructure or service enhancement be undertaken. A gap has been identified where this is not possible and potential options have been developed to address it. Groupings of routes where changes will be required to support the delivery of the Conditional Outputs include: . Edinburgh Waverley and Haymarket to Glasgow Queen Street (High Level) and Fife; and . Glasgow Queen Street High Level to Aberdeen/Inverness. 3.21 All other routes are deemed to be capable of delivering the 2043 “Indicative Train Service Specification” which satisfies the service levels specified in the Conditional Outputs. 3.22 The development of options takes account of Transport Scotland’s Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) undertaken in 2008, which included Project 6 Electrification of Rail Network, Project 17 Highland Main Line Rail Improvements, Project 23 Rail Improvements between Aberdeen and Central Belt and Project 28 Inverkeithing to Halbeath Railway Line. 3.23 The Route Study comments that for the Edinburgh Waverley and Haymarket to Glasgow Queen Street (High Level) and Fife route grouping more services and/or longer trains will be needed as well as further electrification.
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