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Cj E&M (130960) Company Note July 11, 2017 CJ E&M (130960) 12M rating BUY (Maintain) 2Q17 preview: Have faith in content’s potential 12M TP W108,000 from W108,000 Up/downside +42% 2Q17 OP in line with consensus We expect CJ E&M to post sales of W399.8bn (+11.9% YoY) and OP of W26.5bn Stock Data (+87.8% YoY) that meets the consensus (W26.4bn). For media, ad sales would KOSPI (Jul 10, pt) 2,382 grow less than expected (+1.8% YoY) due to poor business conditions and weak Stock price (Jul 10, KRW) 76,000 sales among second-tier channels. However, the success of variety shows such as Market cap (USD mn) 2,550 Shares outstanding (mn) 39 Youn’s Kitchen and Produce 101 as well as robust sales of digital ads and content 52-Week high/low (KRW) 88,700/53,800 will drive up earnings. We expect an operating loss at the film division due a poor 6M avg. daily turnover (USD mn) 25.3 box office for The King’s Case Note (released April 26, 1.6mn tickets sold) and The Free float / Foreign ownership (%) 56.7/25.5 Merciless (May 17, 0.9mn tickets sold) although Confidential Assignment (January Major shareholders (%) 18, 7.8mn tickets sold) was a hit. On the other hand, we expect stable earnings CJ Corp. and 5 others 42.9 growth at the music division due to synergy with the media division. By division, we expect OP of W28.1bn (+37.1% YoY) at media and W2.0bn (+50.5% YoY) at music, Performance but a loss of W2.6bn (W6.6bn in 2Q16) at film and W0.9bn at performance 1M 6M 12M (W1.0bn in 2Q16). Absolute (%) (5.4) 1.3 8.4 Relative to KOSPI (%p) (5.4) (15.1) (12.9) Earnings growth fueled by competitive content, overseas business 12MF PE trend and value chain expansion (X) 12MF PER (LHS) (KRW) 200,000 60 CJ E&M is a comprehensive content provider with creative strength for productions price (RHS) 180,000 such as dramas and film. As for media, self-produced dramas and variety shows 50 160,000 140,000 will fuel ad sales while digital ad and content sales would drive up margins. A sharp 40 120,000 competitive edge in content will support the company’s gaining ground in Asian 30 100,000 countries like Vietnam, Thailand and China. CJ E&M has also tried to expand its 80,000 20 60,000 divisional value chain through sub-labels such as Studio Dragon, JK Film, AOMG 40,000 10 and Highlight Records, and these should offer earnings growth. 20,000 0 0 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Core business to remain highlighted in 2H17; Maintain BUY Source: WISEfn consensus We maintain BUY with our SotP-driven TP of W108,000. Operational value will remain highlighted as earnings grow at the media division. CJ E&M’s subsidiary broadcast channels (tvN, Mnet, etc.) have introduced competitive dramas (Stranger , The Bride of Habaek, Live Up to Your Name, etc .) and variety shows (New Journey to the West S4 , Show Me The Money S6, Three Meals A Day: Fishing Village S4, etc.). Improving business conditions and content creation skills will push up ad charges along with content sales. We expect OP to jump 93.8% YoY at the media division. The film division will also post robust earnings if The Battleship Island (release July 26) is a box office hit, allowing a re-rating for the share price. Drama production company Studio Dragon (91% owned) is pursuing a public listing in 2017. This would significantly enhance the company’s value as well. Yr to Sales OP NP EPS % chg EBITDA PE EV/EBITDA PB ROE DY Dec (W bn) (W bn) (W bn) (KRW) (YoY) (W bn) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) 2015A 1,347 53 54 1,409 (75.8) 373 57.2 8.2 2.0 3.6 0.2 2016A 1,538 28 62 1,611 14.3 428 44.0 7.4 1.8 4.0 0.3 2017F 1,815 96 512 13,267 723.5 553 5.7 6.0 1.5 28.7 0.3 Minha Choi 2018F 2,016 120 161 4,164 (68.6) 593 18.3 5.5 1.4 7.7 0.4 822-3276-6260 2019F 2,190 143 186 4,813 15.6 634 15.8 5.0 1.3 8.2 0.4 [email protected] Note: Net profit and EPS attributed to controlling interest Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. CJ E&M (130960) Table 1. 2Q17 earnings preview (W bn , %, %p) 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17F QoQ YoY Consensus Diff. Sales 357.3 394.3 399.8 1.4% 11.9% 402.8 (0.7%) OP 14.1 23.4 26.5 13.5% 87.8% 26.4 0.4% OPM 4.0 5.9 6.6 0.7%p 2.7%p 6.6 0.1%p EBT 47.6 45.2 555.0 1128.5% 1065.0% 47.8 1,061.0% Controlling-int. 43.2 33.2 420.1 1167.2% 872.8% 37.0 1,035.4% NP Source: Company data, FnGuide, Korea Investment and Securities Figure 1. Quarterly sales and OPM (W bn) Sales (L) OPM (R) (%) 600 8 500 6 400 4 300 2 200 0 100 (2) 0 (4) 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17F Source: Company data, Korea Investment and Securities Figure 2. Media sales and OPM Figure 3. Film sales and OPM (W bn) Sales (L) OPM (R) (%) (W bn) Sales (L) OPM (R) (%) 500 12 100 15 450 10 90 10 400 8 80 5 6 350 70 0 4 300 60 (5) 2 250 50 (10) 0 200 40 (15) (2) 150 30 (20) (4) 100 (6) 20 (25) 50 (8) 10 (30) 0 (10) 0 (35) 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17F 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17F Source: Company data, Korea Investment and Securities Source: Company data, Korea Investment and Securities 2 CJ E&M (130960) Figure 4. Music sales and OPM Figure 5. Performance sales and OPM (W bn) Sales (L) OPM (R) (%) (W bn) Sales (L) OPM (R) (%) 70 8 10 50 9 60 6 0 8 50 4 7 (50) 6 40 2 5 (100) 30 0 4 (150) 20 (2) 3 2 (200) 10 (4) 1 0 (6) 0 (250) 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17F Source: Company data, Korea Investment and Securities Source: Company data, Korea Investment and Securities Table 2. Earnings forecast (W bn, %, & YoY, %p ) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F 4Q17F 2016 2017F 2018F Sales 313.5 357.3 378.8 488.8 394.3 399.8 451.9 568.5 1,538.4 1,814.5 2,015.8 Media 225.4 268.4 268.6 366.1 285.7 311.9 322.0 432.2 1,128.4 1,351.8 1,518.6 Film 40.3 40.6 56.2 52.4 56.6 36.5 72.7 62.7 189.5 228.5 252.0 Music 44.6 47.2 46.2 61.4 47.4 50.4 49.1 64.4 199.4 211.3 221.6 Performance 3.3 1.1 7.8 8.9 4.6 1.1 8.0 9.2 21.0 22.9 23.6 COGS 236.7 269.8 290.8 392.2 287.2 297.8 345.6 438.8 1,189.5 1,369.4 1,528.2 COGS/sales (%) 75.5 75.5 76.8 80.2 72.8 74.5 76.5 77.2 77.3 75.5 75.8 Gross profit 76.8 87.4 88.0 96.6 107.1 102.0 106.3 129.7 348.8 445.1 487.5 Gross margin (%) 24.5 24.5 23.2 19.8 27.2 25.5 23.5 22.8 22.7 24.5 24.2 SG&A 67.9 73.3 85.0 94.7 83.7 75.5 88.1 102.2 320.9 349.5 367.3 SG&A/sales (%) 21.7 20.5 22.4 19.4 21.2 18.9 19.5 18.0 20.9 19.3 18.2 OP 8.9 14.1 3.1 1.9 23.4 26.5 18.2 27.5 28.0 95.6 120.2 OPM (%) 2.8 4.0 0.8 0.4 5.9 6.6 4.0 4.8 1.8 5.3 6.0 Media 5.1 20.5 8.7 12.1 20.1 28.1 17.4 24.5 46.5 90.1 110.2 Film 3.8 (6.6) (7.4) (13.6) 1.9 (2.6) (1.3) (0.6) (23.9) (2.6) 1.0 Music (0.1) 1.3 2.4 3.6 2.4 2.0 2.6 3.7 7.2 10.6 11.1 Performance 0.1 (1.0) (0.8) (0.2) (1.0) (0.9) (0.5) (0.1) (1.8) (2.5) (2.1) EBT 14.6 47.6 9.4 (4.2) 45.2 555.0 34.5 40.4 67.5 675.1 213.8 Controlling-int. NP 13.2 43.2 2.0 3.8 33.2 420.1 26.3 32.3 62.2 511.8 160.6 (% YoY) Sales 7.0 19.4 2.4 27.0 25.8 11.9 19.3 16.3 14.2 18.0 11.1 Media 26.7 20.1 18.0 30.5 26.8 16.2 19.9 18.1 24.1 19.8 12.3 Film (38.9) 28.8 (39.6) 9.7 40.4 (10.1) 29.4 19.6 (20.5) 20.6 10.3 Music 6.3 9.4 (4.8) 21.6 6.4 6.6 6.2 4.9 8.3 6.0 4.8 Performance (55.7) 3.0 935.9 44.0 39.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 36.8 8.9 3.0 COGS 4.2 23.3 1.5 36.7 21.3 10.4 18.9 11.9 16.7 15.1 11.6 COGS/sales (%p) (2.0) 2.4 (0.7) 5.7 (2.7) (1.0) (0.3) (3.1) 1.7 (1.9) 0.3 Gross profit 16.5 8.7 5.4 (1.6) 39.4 16.7 20.8 34.3 6.4 27.6 9.5 Gross margin (%p) 2.0 (2.4) 0.7 (5.7) 2.7 1.0 0.3 3.1 (1.7) 1.9 (0.3) SG&A 19.7 17.1 21.6 10.1 23.3 3.0 3.7 8.0 16.6 8.9 5.1 SG&A/sales (%p) 2.3 (0.4) 3.6 (3.0) (0.4) (1.6) (2.9) (1.4) 0.4 (1.6) (1.0) OP (2.9) (20.8) (77.5) (84.4) 162.2 87.8 494.8 1,359.0 (46.9) 241.6 25.8 OPM (%p) (0.3) (2.0) (2.9) (2.8) 3.1 2.7 3.2 4.4 (2.1) 3.4 0.7 Media 105.6 4.4 24.0 (29.0) 290.0 37.1 98.9 102.7 0.5 93.8 22.4 Film (41.8) NA NA NA (48.7) NA NA NA NA NA NA Music NA (37.5) NA NA NA 50.5 6.8 2.7 980.3 47.5 4.5 Performance 109.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA EBT (86.1) 126.2 (71.5) NA 208.6 1,065.0 265.0 NA 13.8 899.6 (68.3) Controlling-int.
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