Developed Nations; Developing

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ED 255 411 SO 016 289 AUTHOR Brown, Lester R.; And Others TITLE State of the WOriO, 1985: A Worldwatch Institute Report do Progres1 toward a Sustainable Society. INSTITUTION Worldwatch Inst., Washington, D.C. REPORT NO ISBN-0-393-30218-0 PUB DATE 85 NOTE 316p.; For 1984 adition, see ED 241 408. AVAILABLE FROMWorldwalch Institute, 1776 Massachusetts Ave.,N.W., Washington, DC 20036 ($18.95, cloth; $8.95, paper). PUB TYPE Collected Works General (020) Viewpoints (120) Books (010)

EDRSrPRICE MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from EDRS. DESCRIPTORS Alternative Energy Sources; Conservation (Environnt); Depleted Resources; Developed Nations; Developing. Nations; Economics; Fisheries; Food; Forestry; Fuel Consumption; *Futures (of Society); Global Approach; Hunger; International Cooperation; Natural Resources; Policy Formation; Resource Allocation; Soil Conservation; *World Affairs; *World Problems ABSTRACT The second of a series of annual(reports designed to provide a global assessment of progress towarda sustainable society, this publication monitors changes in the globalresource base (land, .water, energy, and biological support systems), focusing particularly on how these changes affect the economy. Included in the reportare news on innovative or particularly successful technical developments; a look at global economic conditions that policy makers often overlook; a revieW of national policies and programs, including progress toward specific national goals; and a survey of major financial commitments by governments and international development agencies. Following an overview, content is divided into 10 'chapters:, .-"A False Sense of,Security" (Lester -R. Brown), "Reducing Hunger" (Lester R. Brown), "Managing Freshwater Supplies" (Sandra Postel), "Maintaining World Fisheries" (Lester R. Brown), "ProtectingF retts from Air Pollution and Acid Rain" (Sandra Postel), "Conserving Biological Diversity" (Edward C. Wolf), "Increasing Energy. Efficiency" (William U. Chandler),, "Harnessing Renewable Energy (Christophtr Flavin and Cynthia Pollock), "Stopping Population Growth" (Lester R. Brown), and "Getting Back on the Track" (LesterR. Brown and Edwai-d C, Wolf). A list of tables and figures, extensive endnotes, and an index are included. (LH)

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A a I Other Norton/Worldwatch Books

Lester R. Browni The Twenty-Ninth.Day: Accomtnodating- Human Needs and \itiniber,sto the Earth' Resources

Lester R. Brown / Budding tiSustainable Society

Lester R. Brown et al. / State ofthe World-1984

,Lester R. Brown, Chriswpher *Flavin, and.Cohn Norman / Running on Empty: The Future of the . Automobile in an Oil-Short 1Lorld

Daniel Denthycy and ChristopherFlavin / Renewable Energy: The Power to Choose )111 Erik P. Eckholm / Losing Ground:EnvirOrNtal Stress and World Food Prospects

Erik P, Ecl)holin / The Pictureof Health: S -Environmental Sources of Disease

Denis Hayes Rays of Hope: The Transitionto a . Post-Petroleum World

Kathleen Newland / TheSister/rood of Man

.ar Colin. Norman / The God ThatLimps: Science and Technology in the Eighties ,

Bruce Stokes / Helping Ourselves:Local Solutions to Global Problems

BEST COPY AVAILABLE 'STATE OF THV WORLD 1985 A_Wilidwatch Institute Reporton Progress TowardaSusta" &table: Society

PROJEcTDIRECAOR Lester R. Brown

PROJECT ASSOCIATE EdWatd C EDITOR bnda Valk( SENIOR RESEARCHERS Lola R. Brown U Chandler Christopher Ffdvin Sandra Postel Tit C.MU"

RkSEARCHER 4 Cynthia Pollock WWNoRTON & COMPANY vEW YORK LONDON r

Copyright ® 1985 by the Worldwatchinstitute All rights res&ved. Published simultaneously in Canadaby Penguin Books Canada Ltd, Ontario L3R 104 2601 Min Street, Markham, Printed in be United States ofAmerica The text of this book is composed in Baskerville, with displaytype set in Caslon. Composition and manufacturing by The Haddon Crafisiuen, First Edition I'M 0-393-01930-6

ISBN 0-393-30218-0PBK

W. W. Norton & Company,Inc, 500 Fifth Avenite, New York, W. W. Norton & Company N.Y. 10110 ' Ltd., 37 Great RusseT1 Street,London WCIB 3NU 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

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WORLDWATCH INSTITUTEBOARD OF DIRECTORS Orville,L. Freernan, Chairman Hazel Henderson -UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Andrew E. Rice, Vice Ch airman .Anne-Marie Holenstein UNITED STATES SWITZERLAND Lester R. Brown (Ex Officio) Abd El R.ahman Khane UNITED STATES ALGERIA Charles M. Cargille LaiTyMinear UNITED STATES UNITED STATES

Carlo M. Ci'polla . Walter Ott Roberts ITALY UNITED STATES Edward S. Cornish Rthel M. Salas UNTIED STATES PFIILIPPINES Marhbub ul Hag Lynne G. Stitt PAKISTAN UNITED STATES

WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE STAFF , Colleen Bickrnan\ Marion Guyer Brian Brown Jodi Johnson Lester R. Brown David Macgregor Willi m U. Chandler, Susan Dorris Chris her Flavin Cynthia Pollock 'Bldndt Gravely Sandra Poste!, Edward C. Wolf,

OFFICERS Lester R. Brown Bloildeen Gravely PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT Felix Correll. Titnothy Atkeson TREASURER GENERAL pOUNSEL

a 6 Acknowdgments

Producing a State of the World report each at Worldly:itch Institute is the opportu- year depends on the support and aid of nity to test one's ideas against an excep- countless individuals and institutions. tionally talented and knowledgeable set Among the principal groups making the of reviewers both within and outside the report possible are the fundets. This an- Institute. This year outside reviewers in- nual series was initiated with the active cluded Gerald 0. fra-rney, Gail Finster- support of William Dictel, President of bush, Robert Goodland, Scott McVay, the Rockefeller 'Brothers Fund, which and Andrew Rice, who reviewed the en- helped' launch the Institute a decade tire manuscript at short notice; the final ago. In addition to RBF, both the Win- version is stronger due to their eleventh- throp Rockefeller Trust andDavi Rock- hour efforts. The following people re- efeller arc helping fund the report. viewed individual chapters and gener- Beyond this., the report draws on the ously shayed their expertise: Peter Blair, Institute's ongoing research, which is Deborah Meyiss, Leon Bouvier, .john supported by several foundationsthe Bredehoeft, Winston Brill, Tom Bull, Geraldine R. Dodge, William and Flora Clark Bullard, Ben Burr, T.T. Chang, Hewlett, W. Alton Jones, Edna McCon- Donald Duvick, Jae Edmonds, Malin nell Clark, Andrew W4Mellon, and Ed- Falkemnark, Andrea Fella, David L. Flu- ward John Noble Foundations. All these harty,KennethFrederick,Howard provide general support that gives us a Geller, Major M. Goodman, Holly L flexibility and an efficiency in operation Gwin, John Haile, Carl Haub, Maureen that few other research institutes can Hinkle; Judith Jacobsen, Mary Kent, claim. In addition, Worldwatch has en- Carlo LaPorta', Jay Lear, Thomas- E. joyed from its inception financial sup- -Lovejoy, Amoky rovins, Thomas Mer- port*. n theUnitedNations Fundfir rick, Douglas Merry, Alan Miller, David Populati n, Activities, headed by Rafael Moulton, Elliott A. Norse, Helen Peters, Salas. . Donald Plucknett,- Fred Potter,' John This year, As iin 1983, Linda Starke ed- Reilly, Peter Rogers, Marc Ross, Ni ited the manuscript, coaxing prose out J.H.Smith, JosephSpeidel, Ma la, of numerous recalcitrant drafts. By shar- Webb, and J.T. Williams. pening .authors' thinking and polishing Special thanks go to Nancy Birdsa o( their writing,..Linda has smoothed the the WorldBank for sharing backgrou d reader's journeyimmeasurably.. Her1papers prepared for the World Develo skills as an editor and her sure sense of ment Report; William Kellogg and Walter graphic design enabled us to produce Orr Roberts of the National Center for State of the World on an accelerated sched- Atmospheric Researchfor reviewing ule without .compromising quality. sections of State of the World thtat deal One of the great privileges of writing with climate; Stephen Schneider, also of. Acknowledpnent3 the Center, for sharin test think- t 3 as well as rt of Chapter 8; ing on the effects ofpop' anon growth rian, Brow Guyer con- on climate; Milena P. Roos for her ex- ,tyibuted to ich and analysis in perienced auimance in unearthing and se eral other citt:rs. Colleen Biel- obtaining documents within the United man's efficient management of publica- Nations system; and Boyd Chugg of the tion sales and devioussense of humor U.S. Department of Agricultbre, whose both proved -indispensable. David M'ac-- historical data on world agriculture ihul gregor designed an ambitious and effec- food production have, provideda (emu- tive mitreach system for State c)f the World datsion for out- analysis. with.* missing a stride in his dutiesas We were fortunate to have sucha di- edito-Vof the Wor,ldwatch Papers. The verse, thorough,and' qualified group' of report's value as ireferencewas greatly reviewers; the authors alone bear there- enhanced by Mice Fins, who joinedus sponsibility for any errors that remain. coming down the home stretchto pro- Any success thatState al thelt'or1I duce a detailed index. achieves rests squarely on the shouldei's Blondeen Gravely, Felix Correll, and of the Worldwatch Institute staff, who Marge Fhibbard share the adansistrative gave done much It more than the term and. financial responsibilities that make supportstaff-.implies.Blondeeni our research possible. Along with the Gravely, Jodi Johnson, and Susan Norris guidance of our Board of Directors, kheir managed the tide of hafts and revisions, cumulative expertise and unfailing good coped with crises on the wordprocess- judgment provide the even keel the In- ing system, and mastereda complex stitute requires to chart new waters in c ing syStem so the book could be each year's State ofthe World. ,peser directly Itom disks. Cynthia Pol- 1 assisted with the research for Chap- Lester ft Brown

0 0 Contents

Acknowledgments vii 4 Maintaining World Fisheries, I List of Tables and Figures xi Lester R. Brown 73 GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND Foreword xv THE EXTENT OF OVERFISHING 1 A False Sense of Security, by Le Stee-R. THREATENED ESTCIF.S. Brown 3 FISH FARMING THE ECONOMY /ECOSYSTEM 'SALMON RANCHING INTERACTION FISHERY PROSPECTS THE LOSS OF ECONOMIC MOMENTUM POPULATION- INDUCED CLIMATE 5 Protecting Forcats from Air Pollu- CHANGE tion and Acid Rain, by Sandra Poste! 97 FOSSIL FUELS AND CLIMATE CHANGE TimPATHWAYS OF POLLUTION .BREAKING OUT OR BREAKING DOWN THE SIGNS OF DESTRUCTION ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL COSTS CURBINC FUTURE EMISSION LEVELS 2 Reducing Hunger, by Lester R. Brown. r . .23 CAN FORESTS THRIVE IN A COMMONS? BEYOND THE FQREST THE CROPLAND TREND WATER AND BREAD 6 Conserving Biological Diversity, by THE FERTILIZER' LINK Edward C. Wolf, 124 ADVANCES IN'TECHNOLOGY ASSESSING EXTINCTIONS . , FOOD SECURITY TRENDS THE FOUNDATIONS OFAGRICULTL)RE 1/130D PRICES: THE BO'ITOM LINE BEYOND CONVENTIONAL SPECIES BIOTECHNOLOGY AND DIVERSITY 3 Managing Freshwater Supplies, by SETTING CONSERVATION PRIORITIES Sandra Postel 42 THE WATER CYCLE AND RENEWABLE. 7 IncreasingEnergyEfficiency, by SUPPLIES William U. Chandler 147 COMPETING USES THE BURDEN OF ENERGY DEMAND THE CONSEQUENCES Or, INDUSTRIAL EFFICrENCX GAINS MISMANAGEMENT' SAVING OIL IN-TRANSPORTATION AUGMENTING DEPENDABLE SUPPLIES EyJILDINGS AND APPLIANCI CONSERVING WATER EFFICIENCY PRIORITIES FO* A NEW WATER .POLICIES FOR AN ENERGY-EFFICIENT ECONOMY FUTURE 1 V / ,

(x) Contents

8 Harnessing Renewable Energy, by TWO FAMILY PLANNING GAPS ChristopherFlom; 0 Cynthia COMPONENTS OFSUCCESS Pollock 172 HYDROPOWER 10 Getting Back on Track, by Lester, R. NEW DIRECTIONS IN SOLAR WATER Brown and Edward C.Wolf HEATING, 222. SOLAR THERMAL POWER GENERATION REI-IIINI(ING THE, FUTURE ALCOHOL FUELS A GENERATION OF ONE-CHILD OTHER RENEWABLE ENERGY. 'c FAMILIES HIGHLIGHTS RESTORING SOILS REFORESTING THE EARTH 9 Stopping Population Growth, AN ENERGY-EFFICIENT WORLD Lester R. Brown 200 RENEWABLE ENERGY: SURGING FORWARD FROM BUCHAREST TO MEXICO CI'T'Y RECYCLING MATERIALS FERTILITY TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS COMPLEXITY, CHANCE, AND SOCIAL INFLUENCES ON FERTILITY LEADERSHIP CONTRACEPTIVE PRACTICES ADVANCES IN CONTRACEPTIVE Notes 247 TECHNOLOGY Index 289 c.) Tables and Figures

LIST OF ;FABLES Chapter 1. A False Sense of Security rr 1-1 Annual Growth in World F;conomic and Grain OutputThree Oil Price Levels, 1950 -34 8 1-2Annual Growth in World Fish Catch, Total and Pei:apita, 1950 -83. 9 1-3Water Balance in Ama`zonian Watershed Near Manaus, Brazil 12 1-4Rate of Desertification in the Sudano- Sahelian Region,,1977-84 14 1-5Carbon-Emissions Intensity of World Economic Output, 1950-82 16

Chapter 2. Reducing Hunger 2-1 Estimated Growth in World Cropland Area, 1950-80,, With Projections to 2000 24 2-2Selected Countries With Declining Cropland Area, 1980 25 2-3Estimated World Irrigated Area, 1900-82 28 2-4World ,Fertilizer Use, 1950-84 30 2-5World Grain Production and Fertilizer.Use at Three Oil Price Letels; 1950-84 31 2-6World Grain Production, Total and Per Capita, at Three Oil Price Levels, 19I10-84 37 2-7Index of World Food Security, 1960-84 . 38 2-8The Changing Pattern of World Grain Trade, 1950-84 39 2-9World Grain Area and Fertilizer Use Per Capita, 1950-84 40

Chapter 3. Managing Freshwater Supplies 3-1 Distribution of Renewable Freshwater Supplies, By Continent 44' 3-2Average Annual Per Capita, Runoff in Selected Countries, 1983, With Projec- tiops for 2000 45 . I 3-3Growth in Irrigated Area, By Continent, 1950 -82 47 3-4Estimated Waters Use in Selected Countries, Total, Per Capita, and by Sector, 1980 49 3-5Selected Cases of Excessive Water Withdrawftls 53 3-6Reservoir Capacity ip Selected Countries, 1970, With Projections for 1990

3-7Current Status of Selected Majqr River Diversion Projects 58 3-8United States: Annual FlousehOla Water Use and Potential Savings With Simple Conservation Measures 67s; r") IL (xii) tmt of Tab/e3 mid Figures Chapter 4. Maintaining World Fisheries.. 4-1 World Fish Productimi, Total and Per Capita,195Q-83 74. 4-2World Fish Catch By Species, 1980 75 4-3Oceanic Fisheries That Have Been Depleted 78 4-4 Aquacultitral Output, Ten Trading Countries,1980 84 Aquacultural Output By Type, Leading Cou'ntries,1980 85 4-6Annual Fish Farming Yields of CommonCarp .and Channel Catfish With Vary- ing Intensity of Cultivatioit 86 4-7 Efficiency Of Grain Conversionto Meat by 'Various Animals 8-7 4-8 United States:' Aquacuiturzil Productionof Catfish, 1970-83 87 4-9 Estimated Harvest From SalmonRanching, By Country. 1984 90 4.10World Catch of Squid, 1970-82 94 4-11-World,Catch of Antarctic Krill, 1974-82

Chapter 5. Protecang Forests from AirPollution and At-id Rain 5-1 Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen OxideEmissions in Selected Countries 99 5-2 Summer Ozone Concentrations, SelectedEuropean Countries 103 5-3West Germany: Forest. Damage, 1982-83 .105 5-4Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen OxideEmissions, 1980, With Projections for 2000 113 5-5Estimated Sulfur Emissions andDepositions in Europe 119 5-6 Commitments to Sunlit Dioxide Reductions,September 1984 120 Chapter 6. Conserving Biological Diversity

61-1 Estimated Acceleration of Mammal. Extinctions 126 6-2Seed Costs in U.S. Agriculture,1950-83 132 6-3Number of Staples of Major Crops I kidin Gene Banks in Industrial and Developing Countries, 1983 133 6-4 United States: Listing of Endangered'or Threatened Species, 1984 144 Chaptei 7. lncleasing Energy EfficierVy 7-1 1:i rgy Consumption in SelectedCounties,1982' 149 7 -2 Eney Use .in Steel Manufacturing in Major Producing Countries,Ranked By Efficiency, 1980 151 , . 7-3Electricity Use in Aluminum Smelting inMajor Producing Countries, Ranked by 'Efficiency, 1981 154 - .. . 7-4,Automobi,ie Fuel Economy, Selected Countries,1982 158 7-5Efficiency of Fypical U.S. Household AppliancesVersus Best 1983/84 Models ...____ 162 - ., .- 7-6World Energy Consumption and Cal-bonDioxide and Sulfur Emissions-in 1984, , .. With Alternative Projections (or 2000 and2025.. 167 . .- - Chapter 8. Harnessing Renewable Enerky 8-1 countries Obtaining More Than Half TheirElectriCity From Hylropower 174 8-2 Countries With Major Hydroelectric AdditibrisBetween 1978 and1983 175/ *8-3 Largest Hydroelectric Plants, Operating or UnderConk truction,1984 176 List of Tables and Figures ()chi)

8-4United States; Permits and Licenses for Hydroelectric Plants, 1978-83 .178 8-5Large Solar Thermal Electric Systems, Operating or Planned, 1984 185 8-6Brazil: Saks of Giisohol and Alcdhol Vehicles, 1980-83 190 8-7Alc-tholFuel Production and User Brazil and the United States, 1976-84 191 8-8United States: .Production of Alcohol Fuel From Corn, 1980-84 193 8-4California: Wind Farms, 1981-84 198

Chapter 9. Stopping Population* Growth 1,

-971-. Countries At or Approaching Zero libpujatiOri, Growth, 1984 203 9-2current Population of Selected Countries, With Projections to Stationary State 205- 9-3Sources of Fertility ReductiOn, Selected Developing Countries 207' 9-4Share of Couples Using Contraception in Selected Countries, By Method, Circa 1978 209 9-5Estimated Number of Coliples Preventing Births by Vasectomy, 1983 211 9-6Prospective New or Improved Technologies for,C.&trolling Fertility 213 9-7Share of Married Women Aged 15-49 Who Want No More Children, Selected Developing Countries, Circa 1980 215 , 9-8Unmet Need for Contraception Among Married Women Aged 15-49, Selected Developing Countries, Circa 1980 216 9-9Incidendleif Legal Induced Abortion, Selected Countries, 1980 217 9-10Population Assistance By Donor, 1981 217 9-11Share of Wpulation Under Fifteen 'elected Countries, 1984 219 ,chapter 10. Getting Bachon Track P0-1Selected Countries That May Have opt a One-Child Family Goal to Avoid a Decline in Living Standards 25 lb-2- Fatiiry Pranning Costs in Selected Countries, 1985, With Projections to 200 227 10-3Estimated Excessive Erosion of Topsoil From World Cropland 228 10-4Ratio of Forest Clearing to Planting in the Tropics, 1980-85 231 10-5'Oil Intensity of World Economic Ourput, 1910-84 2,35 10-6Range of Energy Efficiency in Key Sectors of Major National Economies, Circa 1981 236 10-7World Growth in Energy Production by Source, 1979-84 238 10-8Cost of Burying a Ton of Trash in Landfill for the City of Minneapolis, With Projections to 1990 242 10-9U.S. Steel Produced in Electric Arc Furnaces, 1960-84, With ProjectiicQ5 to 1990 242

LISTOF FIGURES Chapter 1. A F se Sense of Security I-1At c Carbon Dioxide Levels at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1958-83-, 15 1-2 Wo Carbon Einissions From Fossil Fuel Combustion, 1950-83 16

13 of-Tablsand.Figura

1-3Grain .Production Per Capita in China and Africa, 1950-§4 21 1-4 Grain Production Per Person in South Andean Countries, 1950-84

v chapter 2. Rechicing'Hunger 2-1 World Fertilizer Use Per Capita-1950-84 .30 2-2U.S. Fertilizer Consumption (Material Weight), 1930-84 32 2-3U.S. Grain Sorghum Yield Per Hectare, 1950-84 34 2-4U.S. Corn Yield Per Hectare, 1900-84 35 2-5Rice Yield Per Hectare in Japan, 1900-84 35

Chapter 3. Managing Freshwater Supplies 4, 3-1 World Water Use, Total and Per Capita, 1940-80 46 3 -2 Water Demands in Latin Ame 'cia7.--1475, With Projections for 2000 48 3-3Irrigated Area in Six States T at Rely Heavilyon the Ogallala Aquifer, 1944-82 52

Chapter 4. Maintaining Wor Fisheries 4-1 Peruvian Anchovy Cat h, 1960-83 79 4-2Chesapeake Bay Oyst Catch, 1900-83 82 4-3Chesapeake Bay Shadatch, 1900-82 83 4-4Release of Juvenile Sal.n into the North Pacific, 1950-80, With Projections to 19130 90, 4-5Harvest of Salmon in the Non acific, 1930-80 93 ..- 4-6 Index of U.S. Prices of Cod and Salmon, Igii7-83 94

Chapter 7. Increasing Energy Efficiency 7-1 Efficiency improvements in Residential, Space Heating in Selected Countries, 1970-82 162

Chapter 8. Harnessing Renewable Energy 8-1 Solar Collector Manufacturing in the United States, 1974-83 ' 182 .

14' Apr

F Foreword

At this time last year we had just com- insurgencies, terrorist attacks, aqd ten- pleted State of the World-1984, ourfirst sions between various religious hd eth- global assessment of progress toward a. nic groups continued to distract leaders' sustainable society. We believed there attention from the forces shaping the would be a strong interest in such an "current" of events. assessment but we did not anticipate that Against this backdrop, the interest of the U.S. edition would go into three world political and corporate leaders in printings during the first year.. Nor did State of the World has been particularly we foresee that the book would be ex- heartening. In America, former cerpted in more than 50 periodicals Colombian p'- esidknt Carlos Lleras Re ranging from Natural History to the Inter- strepo wrote a lengthy summary f national Herald Tribune to The Statesman of SOTW-84 for publication in El Tiem Pakistan: that country's leadi4 newspaper. A p r- The strong response to State of the sonal letter from President Julius N e- World- 1 984 (SOTW- 84 )deinonstrates rere of Tanzania indicates that State o the the depth of interest in interdisciplinary World was for him a "useful survey" hat studies and suggests their usefulness in had become part of his personal lib ary. policymaking. Over athirdof the Closer to home, Ted Turner, head f the world's people live in countries that have TurilFr Broadcasting System, purc ased undertaken Year 2000 studies,pat- 1,400 copies for distribution to ke deci- terned on the Global 2000 Report to the sion makers in the United Stat sin- President done in the United States five eluding Chief' Executive Officer of the years ago. Leaders and citizens every- Fortune 500, members of Congr ss, and where' express concern at these perplex- the cabinet. Turner called it "t e most ing resource and environmental probi. important book I have read iseveral lems, and some have started to seek years." solutions that reinforce rather than un- A good beginning was e in dis- dermine each other. tributing SOTW-84 internatio ally. Our The events of 1984 revealed a world North American publisher, .W. Nor- conscious of its problems but at a loss as ton, holds English rights wo ldwide. In to how to confront them. In Mexico City, Beijing, the Institute of Sc entitle and the U.N. International Conferenoe on Technical Information of 1 hiniethad a Population refocused the world's atten- team of six translators atork on the tion on its growing numbers but saw book within weeks of its.5. puhlica- basic commitments to population assist- tiod. Their efforts are bein paralleled in ance challenged. A prolonged African Japan by the Defense of th Green Earth drought turned into famine, though re- Foundation, which has als purchased in lief efforts and media iitention did spark advance the rights to SO 1W-85. Discus- an interest in causal factors. Civil wars, sions are being held witthe American Sal

ri S.

(N.-1) .rorrictorcf-,

. Center Library on an English edition for found on almost all cainpuscts.- India. In Indonesia, we expect the Obor Each year'A State of the- World will bea Institute, long our publisher there,to do fresh assessment.ithough each annual a local edition.. Rights for Spanish have eehtion will coverie same basic issues-, been purchased by. Fondo de'Cultura enew. environment, food, population, Economic-a, a major pur ishing housem and 'economic trendswe will belook- Mexico City..11 riZTOtions cor Por ing at them froma different perspective, tuguese rights in Brazil arc -completed for no single -;olunie couldcover all suCcessfidly, coverage of the western these issues and their interrelationships.; hemisphere will be complete. In Europe, This year, for example,we have devoted Panstwowe Wydawnictwo Ekono- a section of the first chapter to popula- miczne is planning a Po'lish editionand tion-induced climate change,a suNect negotiations aterderway on-a German that we think deserves farmore atten- ono. tion. With more tithe (0-gather data,we At a time when some global problems to expand this analysis intoa full seem insurmountable, it is reassuring to chapter in' SOTIF-86. Similarly, thisyear know that information illuminatingThem we n9te the famine uniblding in Africa: cahbedisseminatedworldwideso next year we hope to analyze the social quickly. The chapteron the economics consequences of failed agricultural and of nuclear power from SO7'IV-84 was population policies. ' published in an expanded versionas a State of the ll'orhf is intendedto be an Worldwatch Paper, for example. As integrative document, cuttingacross dis- soon as the study received newscover- ciplines and fields of interest. It could age, telephone orders were received, not of tours' displace the specializedre- within a matter of hoursfrom Japanese ports of various agencies, suchas State of litanies, members of the GermanDun- Food and Agriculture by the U.N. Foodand. destag,andWtillStreetinvestment Agriculture Organizatiqn, State of the firms. The sales patterns of SOTIV-8.1 World's Population by. the U.N. FundThr andassociated WorldwatchPacers Population Activities, or, World Economic sometimes say a lot about thenature of Outlook by the International Monetary. the issues. When the chapteron acid rain Fund. Rather, it attemptsto draw upon from this year's edition first appearedas their 'findings, relating thenito each Worldwatch Paper 58, the Canadianem- other. State of the World also relieson na- bassy purchased 2,000 copies fordistti- tional assessments suchas those pre- bution in the United States. pared by the Conevation Foundation In addition to the interest shown by fOr the United and by the Centre political leaders and corporate planners, for Science and Environmentfor India. the academic work' has also responded Another report in this vein is scheduled well to SOTW-84. Its principal' selling to be published jointly by the World Re- point on campuses appearsto be its inte- sortmes 'Institute and the International grative character and the linkages itesta- Institute for Environment and Develop- blishes among major fields of study.In ment in early 1986. Tentatively entitled addition to serving as , a reference for re- The 4Vorid Resources Report, it will havean searchers, it is being adoptedas a text extensive statistical appendix that for courses in agriculture, demography, should provide sorely needed dataon ecology, geography, international resource and environmentaltrends, affairs, and that relativelynew genre of much as the World Bank's World Develop- courses typically labeled Environment, ment Report details economic indicators Technology, and Society that isnow for the developing countries. Foreivord We appreciate the luny articles and /reports received from researchers the world over. As with SOTW-84, we wel- JR. come comments anti sugg-estions.,Qper- ks may be directed to me or to the authors of individual chapters. I Lester Brown Worldidtch Institute 1776 Mass chuseto Avenue, N.W. WashinSri, D.C. 2006 December 1984

41,

3 4

)

17 1 4 A False Sense of Security Lester R. Himon

Although human activities have always peaked in Africa in 1967 and has been altered the natural environment, the declining nearly I percent per year ever scale of disruptions in the late twerAieth since. The drought merely brought this century is unprecedented. The collective long-term deterioration into focus. The actions of a world,popukition approach- decline is largely attributable to three ing five billion now appear capable of well-established trends: the fastest pop- causing continental and even global ulation. growth of any continent in his- changes in natural systems. As human. tory, widespread soil erosion and deser- pressures build, the relationshipbe-. tification, and the failure by African tween people and their natural support governments to give agriculture the sip- systems can cross key thresholds, lead- port 'That it needs.2 ing to a breakdown. Population growth both exparttis food Nowhere is that breakdown more-trag- needs and contributes to endemic soil ically evident than in Africa, where lam- erosion, which is dimming the food -int is spreading across the continent. As prospect of virtually every African coon -. recently as 1970, Africa was essentially try from the Mediterranean to the Cape sel(sufficient in food. In 1984, however, of Good Hope. \A 1978 report from the Sorkie.140 million Africansout of a total U.S. Agency for international Develop- of 5 *1 millionwere fed with grain froth 0ment office in Addis Ababa indicated abroad. In the years ahead, the conti- that Ethiopia was losing a billion tons of nent's dependence on imported grain topsoilannuallyforeshadowingthe will almoit.' certainly be even greater.' famine now gripping that ancient coun- The Spoqight of publicattention try. In graphic language it described "an focused in he 1984 on emergency food environmental nightmare unfolding before our eyes... aresult of the arts of relief; the media regularly attributed the millions of Ethiopians struggling for sur- famine to ,drought." But the drought; vival: scratching the surface of eroded though a triggering' event,is not the land and erodingitfurther, cutting basic cause. Per capita grain production down the trees for warmth and fuel and Units of measurements arc. usually filmic unless leaving the country denuded.. Over common usage dictates otherwise. one billion, one billiontons of topsoil

18. ( 4 ) -.State of the It'orld-1985 flow from Ethiopia's highlands each tantsfrom the,conibustion of fossil fuels year."5 Similar language could be used in automobiles andwer plants are lay- todescribethepopulation-induced ing wastetothe 'forestsof central deterioration of 'forests and soilsin Europ. Indeed, acid rain may be de- much tif Africa. stroving the forests of Czechnslovakia, Amid all the media coverage of the Poland, and West Germany even faster African fool crisis a fundamental point than the axe and plow destroyed those is being oveillooked. There are no devel- of India and El Salva0or: More serious opments in prospect on either the agli- than the immediate lols of for6sts in -Eur- culture or the family planning side of the ope is the failure of refotestation efforts food/population equation that will ar- in the devastated areas where newly rest the slide in per capita food proditc-, planted s4dlings have withered and died. The loss of forests is not the only cost of growing dependence on fossil The sheer numberk..itzpeople seek- Their combustion is also releasing car.- ig to survive on arid, marginal bon dioxide to the atmosphere, on a scale' that is likely to cause climatic-shifts that cl* land in Africa may be driving a self, could disrupt food production, reduce reinforcing process of dessication, dependable water supplies, and eventually jeopardize coastal cities and towns. When nature systems are severely In addition, there is now evidet0e that iiressed by human activityr their vulner- population growth may be drivirig.tg- ability increases. One geaphic illustra- mate change in Africa. The sheer num- tion of this: In 1983 a forest fire spread ber of people seeking to survive on arid, through Indonesian Kalimantan (-Bor- marginal land.may be driving a self-rein- neo) destroying some 3.5 million hect- forcing process of desiccation, literally ares of forests and defying the con- drying out the continent. Coming ata ventional wisdom that Moisture-laden time of declining food output, thissug-4' tropical rain forests will dot burn natu- gests a breakdown in the relationship be- rally. Drought combined with forest deg- tween people and environmental sup- radation from logging,: agricultural set- port systems thavould lead Africa into tlement, and the spread of shifting a crisis of historic dimensionsone that cultivation to'dry out the-forest and pro- goes far beyond short-term emergency vide a layer of kindling. Fires-ignited by food relief. This continnt,wide disinte-.lightning and slash-and-burn-cultivators T rationcould gradually shift attention began to burn uncontrollably. As fires from the East-West confrontation, which blazed and smoldered for some three has dominated world affairs for agener- months, valuable timber tracts were de- ation, to the deteriorating relationship stroyed and countless plant and animal between people and life-support systems species disappeared in an evolutionary that now threatens the security and sur--.instant. This conflagration, little noticed vival of so many. outside thescientific community al- The deterioration of our environmen- though it consumed an area larger than tal support systems is not restricted to Taiwan, may be a harbinger of disrup- Africa, however. It takes many forms and tions 'to come in other tropical rain for- can be seen in industrial and developing ests.4 countries alike. Acid rain and air pollu- As our numbers Move steadily toward

19 False Senseof Security. (5) five billion, new manifestations of tiopu in the long run. The U.S. crop surpluses lation pressures are surfacing. In China, of the earlyeighties,for example authorities are now trying to conserve sometimes cited as a sign of a healthy land by encouraging cremation instead agricultureare partly the product of of interment in the' traditional burial .careless overplowing. The very practices mounds seen, throughout the countrv- that lead to excessive erasion often yield to. side. Where mounds occupy too much short-term production gains or even sur- cropland, Beijing recOmmends that an- pluses, creating an illusion of progress. cestral remains be consolidated in a gle 'communityplot.Venerationof ancestors continues, but in this crowded Only when environmental deterio- country the living compete'with the dead ration ,begins to affect the, eco- for land.5 Difficult choices are not confined to nomic statistics* does the world China. West Gerthans may now have to seetti'to take notice. choose between reducing automobile usc and sacrificing their forests. For many Third World' countries, the- choice Our understanding ofthese, net is between an abrupt lowering of birth itresses is far from complete. Unfortu- rates and a certain decline in living stan- nately, the consequences of our action dards. or inaction are of an entirely new magni- Trade-offs between food and energy tude. National energyspOlicies could de- are particularly difficult. In Brazil some termine the extent and pace of 'a world- 1.3 million hectares or cropland were wide changeinclimate.Population illabted to sugarcane in 1984 as part of policiesmay help determine whether a massive governMent program to be- Africa becomes a virtual wasteland. The come .3(1f-sufficient in liquid fuels. Tills scale of environmental disruptions we reduced the outlay of scarce foreign ex-i, face lends urgency to our efforts to re- change, but it also increased the pres- turn to a sustainable pathto bring pop- sures on soil, and the. competitipri with ulation growit and our economic and the food s'ector for resources. social systems- into a koverm balance Althougb these new signs of environ- with the resource base that supports us. mental stress appear each year, many This chapter outlines some of the key people find them easy to ignore. The links between the global economy and world Was been lulled into a false sense the natural systems and resources that of sectlriCY by recent progress in slolving underpin it, focusing on how resource population growth, 'reducing depen- depletioVi and human alterations of nat- dence on oil, and replenishing giwiaries. ural systems are adversely, affecting the 00y when environmental dei6rOration econon1-0. It also briefly considers some begins lb affect the economic statistic facets of this complex relationship, such does the world Seem to taker notice. as population-induced climate -change, Economic trends and ecological sys- that we plan to examine in more detail in tems interact continuously in ways that State of the World-1986.Subsequent chap- we sometimes fail to understand and tersanalyzeresourcepressuresin with conseptences that we frequently do greater detail and consider the policy notanticipate. Policies that are economi- initiatives needed to alleviate these pres- cally successful in the short run can' be sures and put the world economy on a ecologically and economically disastrous sustainable path.

20 ti ( 6) Slate of the World -1985

ECONOMY/ECOSYSTE1M rainfallFossilfuelcombustion raisesat- mospheric-levelsof cautiondioxide, INTERACTION, which' m turn alters climate and eventu- Despite the central importance of the ally world agriculture. The growing de- economy/ecosystem relationship, rela- mand "AM protein tiAg. gers oyerfishing, tively little attention has been devoted to which in turn lead to the -collaulke of fisheries. These arc but a kw M.ticim- analyzinw-it.... There are several under- standablereasonsforthisneglect: portant links hoween the economy and Rapid, sustained growth of the world the ecosyStew. economy is historically rather recent; -an (.)f these linkages, one that seems des- analysis of the interaction is a difficult tined tc.) attract attention soon is that be- interdisciplinary undertaking; and eco- tween soil erosion and Third World systems are not well understood. Since debt. Soil erosion can undermine not mid-century the world output of goods only a country's 100d production capac5 and servi9;,s has nearly quadrupled, an ity but its debt servicing capacity as well/ foritleads' to widening 'food deficits, unprecedented achievement and a testi- moiniting debt, and eventually to food monyi to human energy and ingenuity. shortages. A nation whose people face Unfortunately,thisexplosive growth starvation can hardly be blamed for fail- has left little time to assess the effects ing to make debt payments. Indeed, at a on the earth's natural systems and re- meet* of the 'Organization of African sources. Unity in November 1984, Conference In a world where the broad-based ad- Chair Julius Nyerere urged African gov- vance of knowledge has led to a high ernments to withold payment on their degree of specialization, the need for in- $152-billion foreign debt, owed mostly terdisciplinary research has increased to European and U.S. banks." even as its pursuit has become iutellectu- The changing relationship between ally more demanding. This Challenge the global economy, now- producing was boldly recognized in September s me $12-trillion worth of goods and 1984 at a meeting of the International vices per year, and the natural sys- Council of Scientific Unions in Ottifwa. tems and resources that underpinit Members from some 20 scientific unions raises difficult questions in analysis and and 71 national academies of science in the conduct of international affairs. passed a unanimous resolution urging a Unfortunately, there is no overarching worldwide project to study the intfae- body of theory that integrates economic tion of the earth's physical, chemical, trends and ecological forces. Economic and biological processes. For thole as- analysts turn to highly developed theory sembled, it had become clear that our in their field and ecolrgists rely on well- lack al understanding of these processes established ecological principles. But and how they are being affected by there is no easy way to integrate the two human activity poses a risk to society approaches. that'should be reduced.? Despite this lack of integration, expe- The interactions between the gIbbal rience tells us that theAcological indica- economy and the earth's natural 'sys- tors of today foreshadow the economic tems, cycles, and resources are legion: trends of tomorrow. If we are interested Acid .rainaffectsforest productiVity, in food prices at the end of the century, which in turn raises costs in the forest we should be looking at soil erosion products industry. Population growth rates today. The less soil we have the hastens deforestation, which may reduce more food will cost. For some ida of

21 A hase Sense of Security (7 ) the cost of lumber and the price of hous- Loss OF Ectn:romIC ing a generation hence: we should be fol- -lowingdeforestation rates today. If 114." MOMENTUM want to knv what types of seafood we will be eating a decade from %lbw, we In last 'year's State I the World, we noted should be analyzing the areas oloverfish- the loss of momentum in world eco- ing today. nomic growth since .1979, a trend that Add to this need for interdisciplinary 1984 data appear to confirm...The ple- research the interaction of these forces sent recovery, led by the resurgent U.S. across international boundaries, and the economy, has only marginally boosted complex analytical task ahead becomes the average economic growth for the evident. In effect-, "the ',emergence of a past five years. With a slowdown in pros- Highly developed internationaleconomy pect kr 198b, it appears more and more provides a way of transmitting sciircities likely that worla economic growth diir- from one country to another, a sort of ing this decade may not average much- domino theory of ecological stress and more than 2 percent annually. collapse. Soil erosion, for example, has Most immediately, the global eco- historically been a local problem: Civili- nomic slowdown reflects the depletion zations whose food systems were under- of oil reserves and the associated price mined by erosion i4 Units past declined hikes. These increasesinitially engi- in isolation. But in the integrated worldeneered by the Organization of Petro- economy of the late twentieth century, leum Exporting Countries, are not the foodlike oilis a global commodity. A result of the absolute exhaustion of re- country that loses an excessive amount serves, for vast reserves still remain. of topsoil needs to import more food Rather, they are supported by a subtle and thereby raises the pressure on soils shift from a buyer's to a seller's market, elsewhere. .a shift that in turn stems from several factors. New oil resources are generally more costlytodevelop,particularly A highly developed international those involving offshore drilling in new economy provides a way of trans- fields am-lithe use of secondary and terti- ary recovery methods,in older ones. Per-. mitting scarcities from one country haps even more important, this market to another, a sort of domino theory shift reflects the realization that there is of ecological stress and collapse. no alternative to cheap oil. All other options are'more costly, some much more so than others. These forces interact not only among An analysis of world economic growth countries but also between generations. over the past 34 years shows it has Fossil fuel combustion today promises slowed markedly following each of the to alter the climate of tomorrow. Our two major oil price increases: During the inadvertent destruction of plant and ani- 23 years from 1950 through 1973, when mal species impoverishes the world of oil was priced at roughly-$2 a barrel, the our children and grandchildren. At issue world economy expanded at a robust 5.0 is whether we can act on behalf of future percent_ per year. (See Tables 1 -I,) After

generations by moderating our repro- the. 1973 oil price hike, the rate of ductive behavior and by shifting to tech- growth averaged just 3.5 percent per nologies and consumption patterns that year through j979. Following the sec- are sustainable. ond oil price hike it slowed further.

22 (8) State of the IVotld-L)985 Global economic. growth during the has affected grain production in two eighties is scarcely keeping pace with wayT. First, it his increased the cost of that of populatiork, a sharp contrast with production inputs, thus-during, the the situation from 1950 to 1973. 'When amount farmers can pr duce.,Avith a the world economy was increasing at ,given investment. Sectvd, it has slowed some 5 percenrper year, it far exceeded driisrciwth in demand iforgrain by vitu- even the -most rapidly expanding na- ally eliminating gains in per capita in-

tionalopulations. Now that it is only 2 coMe. , , percent however, this is no longer the Oil is the first major resource whose case. unities with rapidly increasing supply has been restricd enough to populations thatare merely keeping measurably constrain economic expan- pace with the global rate of economic sion, but, over the long term the loss of growth are experiencing declines in per topsoil through erosion is likely to be capita income, more important. In Store of (he World- :Tile abundance of cheap petrolemt 1981 we estimated the worldwide loss of associated with the exceptionally rapid topsoil from cropland in excess of new 7.6 percent animal growth in oil produc- soilUrmatit}itat 22.7 billiontons annu- tion from 1950 to 1973 made it relatively ally. This Ttar, based on fresh data for easy to expand both industrial and agri- the United' States and China, we have cultural oinpitt at a healthy. pace. In raised our estimate to 25.4 billion tons.9 effect, cheap 'oilsharply boosted the Afflictingindustrialanddeveloping earth's carrying capacity. Since the oil countries alike, soil erosion is draining price hikes and the associated rise in en- land of productivity on every continent. ergy costs across the board, rapid expan- For su4stence farmers in Africa or An- sion has been far more difficult. In the dean peasants it; Latin America, where agricultural sector, for examples before use. of. oil -based inputs is negligible or the first oil price hike 'korld grain output nonexistent, the loss of topsoil is a more was expanding at over 3 percent a year. serious threat to food production than Since 1973 it has grown at just under 2 oil price rises arc. percent annually, barely keeping pace Supplies of fresh water are also con- with population growth. The shift from straining both agricultural and industrial a buyer's to a seller's market in world oil expansinn. Food is being produced in

Table I-I. Annual Growth in World Economic and Grain Output at Three Oil Price Levels, 1950-84

World Oil Price Economic Output' World Crain (iiitput Period Per Barrel Total Per Capita Total Per Capita (current dollars) (percent) 1950-73 5.0 3.1 3.1 1.2 1973-.79 12 3.5 1.7, 1.9 0.1 1979-A4 28 2.0 0.3 2.0 0.3 06iiiiarlt dollars. souRcEs; Oil price data from International Monetary Fund (IMF); economic data from U.S. Department of State and IMF: population data from United Nations; grain production data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

23 r

''`.1)47.47>177--Th A False Sense o (9) -key agricultural region. of the wo d by '1 -2. Annual Growth in World Fish the overdefting of ater !'s lies. eai h, Total and PetCatpita, 1950,411a- Ground ate Vbirdiiisart44mpant in many of Chin s northen proEinces, fot Annual example. In_ t e Beijing-Tkanjin region ft;rosxth in Catch 1 of nrtheast China, a combination iof ag- r u d a Total Per Capita ,riciAltuul and industrial uses is lowering the water table by 1 to 4 meters per year.- J(percent) Nacl Al the south Indian state of Tamil 1950-70 5.'9- 3.8 Niokiii;lTAgation expansion has lowered 1970-83 1.0 -0.8 the underground watertable - some 44, SOURCE: IcedNations Food and Agriculture Or- 25-30 meters over the past decade. ganization,YearbookofFohery Siatutes (Rome: vari- Overdrafting in, the water-short Soviet ous years). central Asian republics commonly takes the form of excessive river withdrawals. Although Mess carefully monitored, These have reduced the amount of water growth in the world pr u n of beef reaching the Caspian and Aral seas, 40 the principal product of thworld's shrinking both. In the United States, the grasslands and second orilyrtfish as a depletion of the Ogallala aquifer in the source of animal protein--came to a halt southern Great Plains and the diversion in 1976. Except in a few locations, grass- of irrigation water to Sunbelt cities in lands cannot support more beef cattle.

Arizona, California, and Florida have led World beef output has not expanded ,. to an unanticipated decline- in national significantly over the last eight years, de- irrigd area of 3 percent since 1978. spite the continuing conversion of tropi- Aqur depletion is now taking its place cal rain forests into grasslands. As a re- beside oil depletion and soil erosion as a sult, per capita beefproduction constraint on growth in world fSod pro--..,wordwidel has fallen one tenth since duct'on.10 1976. The decline has been dispropor- her constraints on global economic tionately great where grassland deterio- ansion include those imposed by the ration is more extensive (as in the Sahel), ustainable yield of fisheries and grass- where red meat consumption is being nds, two of nature's major protein- reduced for health reasons, or where in- producingbiologicalsyst5ms.After come drops have been precipitous (in more than tripling between 1950 and Brazil, for example)" 1970, growth in the world fish catch Fish production can be expanded slowed abruptly. Averaging nearly 6 per- through fish fanning and beef produc- centannuallybefore1970,ithas tion can be raised by improving grass- dropped to a mere 1 percent in the years landsid by putting more kattle in feed- since. (See Table 1-2.) In per capita lots, ut these are both much more terms, the world catch has fallen some ene'' -intensive and capital-consutn- 10 percent from its peak in 1970. Within ing than were the inputs that led to im- the total harvest, the fish fanning seg- pressive worldwide gains during the ment accounts'for about one eighth and fifties and sixties, when these two biolog- is expanding steadily, indeed rapidly in ical systems had not )ict. been fully ex- some local situations. As with agricul- ploited. ture, however, aquacultural growth is Contributing to the overall economic constrained by the availability of land slowdown of the last five years is the re- and water. duced growth of world food output, a

21 (10) State pl the Wor/d-1985 matter that should be of concern to policymakers _everywhere. Average life POPULATION INDUCE.D expectancy in the Third World jumped CLIMATE CHANGE from 43 years in 1950 to 53 years in the early seventies. But progress since then Meteorologists have long recognized has been less impressive. Indeed, in that !Anan activity could alter climate in those pays of the world where the food,urban communities.Itis commonly situation is deteriorating, life expectancy knoin, Jos example, that cities create may actually be declining:12 heat islands, areas where temperatures These trends raise two key questions: are consistently higher than in the sur- Why, in an age of ad,vancing.technology, round* countryside.Daily weather is the world no longer able to sustain the forecasts for large cities in the north economic and social gains of the cen- temperate zone usually differentiate be- tury'sthirdquarter?And,closely tween temperatures in 'the downtown related, what needs to be done to get arra and the suburbswith the former the world back on track? How can we re- always being higher, sometimes by as store the broad-based improvement in much as several degrees Fahrenheit. living conditions that existed through- Recently anotherquestionhas out most of the third quarter of this emerged: Conk changes in landcover, century.? suchasdeforesioninthe Third World, alter climate. The contribution of population growth to deforestation, In those parts of the world where overgrazing, soil ercision, and desertifi- the food situation, is deteriorating, cation in the Third World is highlS, visible and widely recognized. What isnew life expectancy may actually be de- is the realization that these-processes clining. ant.1, therefore, population growth in-, directlymay be driving climate changes in regions: as diverseas the The trends described above indicate semiarid Sudano-Sahelian zone of Africa that existing policies are not working and the rain f0rests of the Amazon. well.Policy adjustments are needed, In a sense, the question of whether.- I:, particularly with regard to population human activities in the Third Worldare growth. Underlining the urgency of inducing climate change centers on that reformulating these policies is the real- stability and resilience of biologicalsys- izatiothat rapid population growth tems. Long-standing ecosystems consist ofte two negativffects. On the of a complex of plant and animal species dem, side, it re -es a rapid expan- that interact to their mutual advantage. ision in the output of food and other The principal stabilizing -elements are basic goods Merely to maintain the sta- perennialvegetation,astablewater tus quo. But more worrisome is the real- table, adequate underground water and ization that population growth may now stream flows, and an intact, productive be indirectly undermining efforts to in- soil profile. These elements permiteco- crease output of essential items such as systems to withstand external buffeting food. Such a scenario is unfolding in such as short-term climatic fluctuations. Africa, where population gr9wth may be A drought, for instance, will visibly alter, driving climate change, leading to a re- a semiarid system in the short run, per- duction in rainfall and, ultimately, food halts even leading- to 'a widespread loss production. of plants and animals, but when it rains

25 AFalse Sense of Security ( r r )

I : the area quickly returns to nortnalikrees- esis that population-induced local cli- taOishing its equilibrium. Buta system mate change is indeed under way in .under exceptional .stress may notre- Africa, and perhaps in northeastern Bra- cover-in the expected manner. zil and the Amazon Bajpas well. These natuealclimaticfluctuations Any assessment of thishypothesis make it difficiAt- to separate out thepos- must begin with, llte understanding that _ible human effectson climate. 7t-rt-con- the continents are watered by theoceans sfructed climatic history of the Sahel and that change induced by population over the last 10,000 years, lOr example, growth must involve interfering with the .shows extreme fluctuations, from peri- 'mechanics of thistocess_ Mica, for ex- ods- of wetness to dryness. A rather de- ample, is iyat by moisturt-laden. tailed history over just the last feiycentu- masses from the Indian and Atlantic ries shows that the Sahel periodically oceans. The hidian sufklucontinent re- experienced severe, prolonged drought. ceives rain from clouds moving iland And early in this century,a decadelong from the Indian Ocean 'and the Bay of drokight that was particularly severe dur- Bengal, Tilt Brazilian -Amazon derives ing 1911, and 1914 reduced the annual almost alr its water initially from the .4t- disTharge of the Nile by 35 percent and -lantif Ocean. the depth of Lake Chad by about 50 per- Rainfall normally follows tIwee princir cent; river flows and lake levelsfell.pal paths: rapid runoff, groundwaterre- throughout West Africa) charge, and evaporation. Rapid rtmoffis Meteorologists have traditionally dis- water that, steadily makes its way back to missed the notion of large-scale human.; the ocean via streams and rivers. Aquif- induced climate change, arguing that the ers are recharged by water that perme- forces driving global atmospheric circu- ates the soil, percolating blelow the root lation would override any local, human- zone where it cannot be used.by plants. induce niterations. One prominent And finally, sonic rainfallevaporates meteor t F. Kenneth Hare of the from soil or from plants, either directly -University of Toronto, points out: "One as water inter etpted by the plants or in- school of thoughtcertainly- dominant directly* through transpiration. among professionalssays that the high At a typical site in the central Amazon, incidence and prolonged duration ofSe- such as one that was carefully studied cent droughts are simply aspects of near Manaus, Brazil, roughly one fourth natural fluctuation, due to some deep- of rainfall evaporates directly and nearly seated oscillation of the general .circula- one half reenters the atmosphere in the \ion of the atmosphere (and maybethe form of transpiration from plants.o- ocean)." Although this is the conven- ge,ther, direct evaporationand transpira- tionalview,Hare notesthatsome . tion return three fourths of the rainfall meteorologists are beginning to wond& to the-atmosphere, leaving one fcarth as whether 'human activity maynow be runoff that makes its way back toW At- affecting regional climat6.14 lantic. (See Table 1-3.) Such high levels Previous assessments have often been of cloud,techarge.have led ecologiststo handicapped by 'exclusive relianceon refer to tropical rain forests as "rainma- conventionalmeteorplogicalmodels chines,'; - and toes. But it is now possible to draw Wheiii land .is deforested, however, on relevant informatioh from several this ratio is roughly 'reversed, witha fields, including agriculture, .ecology, quarter of the rainfall being returnedto and hydrology as well as meteorology, the minosphere and three quarters run- and to ice together a plausible hypoth- ning.bff quickly. Rainfall in the region is

2 6i (12) State of the World-1985 I. accordinglj, reduced, as the atmosphere gins the long trip back to the Atlantic. holdSless returned moisture thavan be- Moisture left in the air when it reaches come rain later in the cycle. This pattern the Andes moves 'southward into cen- increases with distance from the coast, tralBiaziland the Chaco/Paraguay for the recharge of rain clouds by evapoliriver regions, where itbecomes pert ration, both direct and indirect, becomes of the rainfall cycle in major farming the dominant SOUICC of rainfall in the areas." interior.,Even in semiarid. regions, (kap- As the AtAition rain forest is converted oration supplies much oldie moisture in to cropland or grassland or is cleared by rainfall. A National 'Academy of Sciences logging, the share of rainfall that runs off study estimates, for example, that one increases. This swells the stream flow third to two thirds of all rainfall in the while decreasing evaporation and hence Sahel tomes from soil moisture evapora- the amount of water the area's hydro- tion.° logical cycle. The net effect is lower aver- .As indicated, water initially enters the age rainfall, particularly in the western Amazon are inmoisture-ladenair Teaches.Suchchanges,particularly masses from the Atlantic Ocean.- As those that reduce the amount of water in these progress 'westward, they are con- theAmazon'shydrologicalregime, tinually discharging -,,moistureinthe wouldalmostcertainlyreducethe form of rain and being recharged by amount that reaches the Paraguayan 'evaporation and transpiration. On the Chaco and the central Brazilian plateau. average, water in the Amazon that does In a landmark article in Science,' Eneas not return to the ocean completes the Salati and Peter-B. Vose observe that this cycle every 5:5 days. During this process "might affect climatic patterns and agri- some of the water works its way out of culture in south central Brazil."" Bra- the eVapdrative cycle as runoff and be- zil's efforts to resettle the excew population from. its northeast and-south, Table 1-3. Water Balance in Amazonian and to expand beef productioh by con -' Watershed Near 'Manaus, Brttzil venting the' Amazon rain forest to grassland may hidirectly threaten food -.pro., Proportion. duction inthe country's agriailtural Path of Rainfall of' Rainfall heartland.' 8 Several attempts have been made .to (peixent) assess the overall effect of deforestiikiri Evaporation of rainfall 26 on the Amazon Basin's climate. 'Perhaps intercepted by vegetation the most comprehensive and authorita- and from .forested soil tive analysis is one by Ann Henderson- Sellers, using a three-dimensional gen- Transpiration from vegetation eral-circulation computer model created at the Goddard Institute for Space Stud- Total evapotranspiration 74 ies in the United State's. Incorporating. several variables, this model suggests a Stream runoff - 26 gradual decline in averlige rainfall in the Amazon Basinasdeforestation pro- Total rainfall 100 gresses.' 9

SOURCE:Eneas Salmi and Peter B."Vose, "Amazon The actual reduction of rainfall in the Basin: A System in Equilibrium," Science. July 13, Amazon, is not known, but Philip Fearn- 1984. side, a resident researcher at the Brazil-

27 A list Sense of Security ( I 1 ) Institute for AmazonianResearch, in the Sudan4ahelian reports that in 1979 Manaus region of Africa. went 73 (See Table 1-4.) The 14most populous consecutive days withoutrain.Salati and countries in this group have Vose observe that "if such Fimg a combined dry peri- population of 230 millionpeople, 43 ods were to becomecommonplace orex- tended there would irtevita percent of the African total. Thesurvey vbe a focused on five manifestationsof deser- marked change in thenatural Na- tion." Others have concluded tificationsand dune encroachment,the that even deterioration in rangelands,forest de- a reduction in precipitation of10-20 pletion, the deterioration percent would alter the Amazon of irrigation ecosys- systems, and problems in Taintedagri- tem. The key question, ofcourse, is at culture. what point these humaninterventions Not one of the 70 indicators-,5 overcomethetraditional for stabilizing each of the 14 countriesshowedany forces and set in motionchanges in veg- improvement. According etation and climate that will to 13 of the 70 lead to a indiCators,therewas nosignificant Brazilian Amazonvery different from the" change over the one we now know.20 seven years under review. Sonic 35,or half the total measure- Changes in landuse also affect local rainfall ments, showed a moderatedeteriora- byalteringthe albedo,the tion.rbe remaining 21 showed amount of sunlight reflected back a serious into, deterioration. The 3 indicatorsshowing space. The conversion of foreststo crop- the most consistent land or grassland and deterioration were sometimes to des- rangelands, forests, and raintedagricul- ere, for example, increases thealbedo. ture. Field observers confirm the Where this happens,as on the fringes of survey findings, describing themas somber but the Sahara, the affectedareas reflect realistic. more heat into space. Frequentlyas- sociated with this is Perhaps because of theSahelian an increase in what drought of the early seventiesand the. meteorologists call subsidencealarge- continent-wide drought. scale sinking air motionas air descends experienced in from higher altitudes Africa in 1983 and 1984,more attention , to maintain the has been focus -hanging land-use ground-level. heat balances. Thishigh- patterns cau -d by population altitude air is dry and thus pressure reduces rain- and the pos. ible effectson local climate. fall. Oneconsequence of this proceNs, In addition to the evidencefrom agricul- first ebserved in themid-seventies, is that once desertification ture and meteorology, and thedesert& is under'ivayit cation trends, hydrologicaldata also can become self-reinforcing,gaining momentum over nate." stiggest that Africa is "dryingout.'' In a hydrological analysis measuringchanges Giventheseeffectsofland-use in river flows, J. Simonton changes on the hydrological observes that cycle and "the Senegal, Niger, andChart rivers, on albedo,-it should comeas no surprise that deserts are expa9ding coming from wetter regionsto the south in areas .have undergone where rapidly, growing a severe decrease of populations are . runoff during' the la'st 15years. ..Lake generating wholesale shifts inland use, Chad has shown strh asAfrica, a systematic decrease of northeasternBrazil, level since 1963. At thattime the lake's, northweste ,'n India, andnorthwestern surface ,covered 23,500 sq. China. ReCently the United kilometers, Nations En- and the volnme of storedwater was 105 vironment Programmeundertook a stir- billion cubic meters. In 1973., vey to assess desertification in countries ten years later, the surface had beendivided by 3

28 4 (LI) State of the World-1985 Table I-4. Rate of Desertification in theSutlino-Sahelianegion, 1877-84 Deterior- Rainfed Deterior- 'anon of Agricul- ture Sand Dune ation in Forest Irrigation Problbil3 t:outitry Encroachment Rangelands Depletion Systems Burkina Faso' 0 0 Cameroon Chad F+ -F Ethiopia -F Guinea, 0

-4- Kenya + Mali Mauritania Niger Nigeria 0

Senegal -F -F + Somalia Sudan + -F 0 Uganda 0 'Formerly bpper Volta. stable, + a some increase,4- +' significant increase' Key: o Sudano-Salielian Region 1977-84," De.serNi- SOURCE! Adapted from LeonardBerry, "Desertification in the A s cation Control (Nairobi), May 1984. ti

and the volume by four. Sincethis date, surprising if climate were not chang- the lake has been cut into two parts.The ing. northern part 'dries up every year, with The time may have come for national only a small inflow through the 'Grande political leaders and internationaldevel- Barrierel."22 opment agencies toseriously consider Most meteorologists have been reluc- the possibility that human population tant to attribute significantclimate shifts growth may now be driving climate to human changes inland use. Although change. More significantly, it isdriving the evidence that can now beassembled that change in directions thatwill not from several fields of study is not yet benefit the people affeCted. It is reducing conclusive, it is rather persuasive. In re- rainfall in area where rain is needed for flecting on this,, Canadian meteorologist crop productionand livestock grazing. Kenneth Hare has concluded in an anal- And it is expanding deserts, whichin "we ysis of desertification in Africa that turn is shrinking theland area available seem to have arrived at a critical moment relation to for producing food, grazing livestock, in the history of mankind's and producing firewood. Those respon- climate. For the first time we maybe on will climatic sible for family, planning programs the threshold of man-induced effec- change." is Knowing what we 'do about be amazed to learn that their the tivenessor lack of itmay be altering the extent of deforestation over ir- past generation andabout the way the the climate of their country, perhaps hydrological cycle works, it would be reversibly, if False Sense of Security (15 ) FOSSIL. FUELS AND CLIMATE parts per million in 1958 to 343 parts per million in 1983, an increase of 9 percent CHANGE in scarcely a quarter-century. (See Fig- Prior to the modern age, atmospheric ure 1-1.) Fossil fuel combustion domi- carbon dioxide ((:02) levels were rather nates the carbon dioxide buildup, al- stable, changing only very slowly over though the steady shrinkageinthe long periods of geological time. Carbon earth's forest cover also adds CO2 to the dioxide is used by plants in photosynthe- atmosphere. George Woodwell and his sis and is .then returned to the intik). colleagues at the Marine Biological Lib' sphere when the plants decompose. In oratory in Woods Hole estimate that the absence of any major change in the deforestation may now be adding be- amount of vegetation on earth, atmo- tween 1.8 billion and 4.7 billion tons of spheric CO2 levels remained constant. carbon to the atmosphere pAr year. Al- With the advent of the fossil cud age, though less than the contribation from however, this began to change. Hydro- fbssil fuels, this is still a large additional carbons that had accumulated under- source of atmospheric carbon dioxide." ground over long spans of geologic time In 1950, worldwide fossil fuel com- were brought to the surface and burned bustion emitted 1,6 billion metric tons of for hiel. As fossil fuel burning increased, carbon. By ,1979 carbon emissions had so did the carbon dioxide released into climbed to a record 5.14 billion tons, the atmosphere. more than triple the earlier lever. .(See At the end of the nineteenth century, Figure 1-2.) During the three years fol- twoscientistsISvanteArrhenius,a lowing the oil price hike in 1979which . prominent SwediTh chemist, and .C. reversed, at least temporarily, 4 long- Chamberlain, a geologist at the Univer- term trend in world oil consumption sity of Wisconsinindependently con-,. carbon emissions tell by more than '5 chided that atmospheric carbon dioxide percent. More impressive, however, is played a central role in maintaining the the 10 percent fall in carbon. emissions earth's heat balance. They observed that per $1,000 of gross world product since carbon dioxide was transparetti to in- 1979..26 (See Table 1-5!) In effect, the coming sunlight but that it intercepted sharp' gains in oil-use efficiency and as- some of the heat radiating outward from sociated reduction in petroleum use the earth's surface, reflecting it back to Parts Per earth. Thus a buildup in atmospheric lilliun carbon dioxide would warm the earth, 150 tt, the"greenhou4 Opcess dubbed effect."24 Although the increase in -atmospheric CO2 probably began a century or more 330 ago,it was relatively insignificant up throughthemid-twentiethcentury. Since then, however, it has accelerated. In 1958, scientists at the U,S. Observa- 310 Smarr Scripps but. tory on Mauna Loa, Hawaii, began col- of Oceanographv lecting regular Samples of air and analyz- 'ing them for CO* content. Their records 1958 1970 1980 199(1 show a steady rise in atmospheric carbon.1Figure I-1. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels dioxide from an annual average of 316 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1958-83 . (16). State of the Mali-1-1985 Billion Metric lbits Table l-5.ICarbort-Emissiona littensity of Worldconovulc,;.Output, 1950 -82 Gross Total Carbon Per World Carbon $1,000 Year Product' Emissions of GWP (trillion (million dollars)metric tons)(kilograms) 1950 2.94 1,583 538 Sounti1 intied Nationi.

U S. Dept. of Energy 1955 3.78 1,975 '522

19S0 1960 - 1970 1980 1990 1960 4.68 2,495 533 Figure 1-2. World Cgrben Emissions From Fossil Fuel Combustion, 1960-83 1945 5.99 3,037 507 more than Offset-the growth 5n coal and gas use. Greater reliance on renewable 1970 7.67 3,934 513 energy sources has also helped reduce 1971 8.02 4,080 509 the carbon-emissions intensity of world 1972 8.41 4,236 504 economic output. 1973 8.99 4,454 495 1974 9.30 tr Advances in meteorological model- 4,463 480 ing, combined with the data from Mauna Loa, provide a basis for estimating the 1975 9.42 4,453 473 climatic impact of large-scale fossil fuel 1976 9.87 4,696 476 1977 burning. By the early eighties therewas 10.29 4,825 469 a near consensus about the general '1978 10.71 4,861 454 effects of the CO, riseon the earth's cli- 1979 11.05 5,144 466 matic system. William W. Kellogg and Robert Schware point out that if indus- 1980 11.27 5,058 449 trial countries, expand fossil fueluse 1981 11.43. 4,931 431 percent per year (the rate prevailing 1982 11.59 4,875 421 from 1400-80), atmospheric CO2 levels 11980 dollars. will double preindustrial levels by 2031'1, sotarcnes: Worldwateti Institute estimates basedon data from United Nations, U.S. Department of En- without even consideringany increase in' crgy. U.S. Departtnent of State, and International fossil fuel use for developing countries. Monetary Pond. Under this scenario, averagetempera- tures would rise 3 degrees Celsius (just 1980. this Would correspondto an at- over 5 &grecs Fahrenheit) within the mospheric CO, rise from the 343 parts next 45 years, a period well within the per million at present to 360-370 parts life span of today'syoung adults." per million, Although such a modest av- To help think through bbth thenear- erage increase does not. appear particu- tenn ancithe long-tertn consequences of larly striking or ominous,temperatures rising ,satmospheric 'levels of CO2, Kel- in some regions would rise muchmore. logg and Schware look at climatictrans- The warming effect .is amplified, forex- formation in two stages. The first would ample, toward the poles. Thus in the be reached around the end of thecen- northern tier of industrial countries, tury, when the world would be on aver- such as in North Americaor Europe, age a half-degree Celsius warmer than in temperatures would increase 2-3 de- .1 hthe Sense of Security ( 17) i glees Celsius (3-5 degrees Fahrenheit). criise would raise aVerage sea levels by Boston's climate would be similar to that some five feet as the oceans slowly warm of Washington, D.C., today. In Europe, by absorbing heat from the atmosphere. a comparable shift would give Copenha- in addition, melting ice in both Green- gen it temperature _reime resembling land and Antarctica would contribute to that of Paris. the rise in sea level. There also would be Inthe second stage, when the dou- a substantial melting of floating ice in bling of CO2 levels would raise global the Arctic Ocean, although this would average temperature by 3 degrees Cel- not apkilciably affect sea levels.29 sius, the temperate-zone northern hemi- The rise in sea level anticipated with a sphere wouldxperience a rise of .1-6 doubling of atmospheric CO2 could degrees Celsius, some 9 degrees Fahren- range up to five to seven meters, but be- heit. Under this climatic regime Boston cause the transfer of heat frok the would have an average temperature warmer atmosphere to the oceans, par- close to that of Miami today: It would be ticularly the lower levels, isa slow pro- a virtually frost-free city with swimming cess, the full effect of doubled atmo- possible throughout most of the year. It spheric CO2 on ocean levels could take is also likely to be more humid. two centuries or longer. Even a short- There would also be shifts in rain 11 term rise of one meter, however, would patterns associated with a CO2 rise, In adversely affect many coastal cities and meteorologists are much less certain of low-lying agricultural lands. The inun- these changes than they are about those dation of agricultural lowlands would rein temperature. On average there would duce world rice output, much of which is be more rainfall, though in substantial produced on the river _floodplains of areas there would lie)ess, as the global Asia. climatic patterns shifted with the altera- With seas that are five to seven meters tion in atmospheric dynamics associated higher,. vast areas of.e land in the with ,the increase in temperature. Both otflopdplains of the Gaes,.the Yellow, North America and the Soviet Union and the Mekong rivers would become would be likely losers in terms ofaverage unctiltivatable in the absence of dikes to rainfall. The U.S. cornbelt, the U.S.- hold back the sea. Such structures would Canadian Great Plains wheat-grnwing be among the largest public works proj- area, and the principal grain-growing re- ects ever undertaken, requiringvast gions of the Soviet Union would all have amounts of capital. For a loW-lying cowl- less soil moisture even if rainfall re- try such as Bangladesh, where 13 iiillioh mained the same, since higher tempera- people live less 4,han three meters above' tures would increase evaporation. China seavel,i the significance of such a rise would stand to lose rainfall in the north- is mits.3° ern part of the country (the region al- 'the rise in temperature will bring with ready suffering from-water scarcity) and it another set of problems. Where tem- to gain iAbthe south, thus worsening the perature stress is already troublesome existing 'water imbalance between the for both plants and animals, a rise iti the two regions. Regions that stand to gain average temperature of 9 degrees Fahr- include Western Europe, most of Saha- enheit, such as that projected for the ran Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and north temperate zone, would:entail un- Australia." bearable heat stress. And over time it As atmospheric (X)2 levels go up the would lead to changes in vegetation, sea level will also rise, 'thermal expan- with species now prevalent being re- sion alone from the temperature in- placed by more heat-tolerant ones. i..,

39ti (18) St 9te of the World-1985 With a global warming there would be with it heavy capital investment needs. winners as well as losers. Canada, the In a world that is finding it difficult to Soviet Union, and other countries with mobilize enough agricultural investment hefty winter heat bills would find relief. capital to eliminate hunger even with a Longer growing seasons in the Fxtreme stable climatic regime, the prospect of latitudes would also benefit thpise same`` having to raise vast amounts of addi-. countries. Urinal capital merely to maintain the pro- Much ofthe literature emphasizes the ductivity-of existing systems is daunting need to adjust to such changes,_ but the indeed. costs of doing so could be high. For-ex- In addition to aAalyzing the effect of ample, the evolution of agriculture over rising avnospheric CO2 on climate, the last several centuries in both the Old meteorologists are now examining the World and the New has been keyed to a effect of trace gases. Fossil fuel combus- particularclimaticregime. Cropping tion,themanufactureor synthetic patterns, agricultural practices, and irri- chemicals, deforestation, and biorna0 gation and drainage systems are shaped combustion produce some 40 trace by local temperature and rainfall condi- gases,, including chlofluorocarbons, tions.If these begin to change, with methane, and nitrous ide. Growth in sonic areas becoming wetter and others the release of thesecgases has closely par-' drier, then the drainage systeths now 4d- alleled that of CO2 and for the same equate will become redundant where, reasons. The most recent assessment of rainfall is declining, whereas new sys- the effect of trace gases on climate, con- tems will have to be constructed where it ducted by a team of U.S. meteorologists, is increasing. Similarly, some regions concluded that "the magnitude of this that now have irrigation will no longer warming in the future can potentially be requireit, while others will need it even as large as the warming dire to projected more. increases in CO2.'1" . As awareness of the threat posed by the global CO2 buildtip. now under way A major shift away from the cli- has begun 'to permeate the scientific matic regime that has governed the community, various options have been evolution of agriculture will bring considird for preventii4,ftr at least nAnimizing the problem. It is technically with it heavy capital investment possible to remove carbon dioxide from needs. the smokestacks of coal-fired thermal eft power plants, 11;r example, but doing so requires a great deal of energy, enough The bottom line of climate change's to reduce a plant's effective generating impact on agriculture is an increase in capacity by 30-80 'percent. Stich a pro- capital requirements. The value of some cess would thus be prohibitively costly.3.2 drAinage and irrigation syStems will de- Another, far more attractive option is preciate; some will be rendered worth- to engage in serious efforts to conserve less by the climate change. In other cases Rnergy, thus reducing fossil fuel com- capital investments will be required for bustion. U.S. Department of Energy pro- new drainage or irritration systems to jections show world CO2 emissions'ilow- maintain land productivity. Wally event, bling from 5 billion tons of carbon in.. a major shift away from the climatic re- 1984 to 10.3 billion tons in 2025. Our gime that Itas governed the evolution of own projections abased on average eco- agricultur-e over the centuries will bring nomic and population growth rates of

33 A False SenseofSecurity (19) 3.2 and 1.2 resp ctively during thepe- panels, energy crops, and fuelwood riod but assuming a.concerted effortto plantations---earc seemingly endless. En- use existing technologies to boost energy efficiency and the development of ergy efficiency wherever it is profitable renewable energyresources are dis- to do soshow that carbon emissions cussed at length in Chapters 7 and 8. could be held to 7.9 billion tons. If al16w- Over the long term, the contribution once is made for a likely slower rate of of conventional oil ksources economic growth (a 2 percentrate, say, ral gas to rising CO2 levels Will be fairly comparable to the last five years), the modest since the:reserves of thesetwo future development ofmore-energy- fossil fuels are being rapidly depleted. efficient technologies, andan emergency The only fossil fuel that remains in large effort to save forests from acid rain by enough quantities to markedly raise glo accelerating the transitionto renewable energy, then it is possible to envisage a gal atmospheric CO2 k'vels is coal. In some ways thisis fortuitous: Some 60 world-where carbon emissionsnever rise percent of the world's coal reserves lie much above current levels, andeventu- under just three countries--China, the ally begin to declineas fossil fuels are depleted or phased out.33 Soviet Union, and the United States with most of the remainder in Australia, If such a "CO2-benign"strategy were to materialize, holding carbon emission India, Poland, South Africa, the United levels at 5 billion tonsper year. it would Kingdom. and West Germany.35 limit the rise in atmospheric CO2 from In contrast to many issues arising in the current 343 parts per millionto 420 t he, management of the global commons, parts per million in 2050. This would be whieli rest on the cooperation ofscores an increase of less than one fourth, far of countries, agreementamong only below the doubling that the Department these three countries torestrict coal of Energy projects. It would markedly burning would go a longway toward slow the change in climate, buying time (reading off a CO2-induced global,warm- with which 10 develop alternativeenergy ing. Whether all woulcr-st=e_it__initheir sources and to make any adjustments interest to do so is anothermatter. The called for by the climatic- chap C." Soviet Union, for example, mightcon- Yet another key componentf surh a clude that a warming and the associated strategy would be ,to develoenergy lengthening of growingseason would on sources that did not generatec .bon di- balance be of benefit, particularly if its oxide, such as nuclearpower ;d the ellOrts to divert the flow of its major HO many sources of renewable enerpi that ers southward should succeed.' Such a. are now available. It seems unlikely that view could make Moscow lesseager to - nuclear power will bean economically cooperate in a global effort to check the viable energy option, particularly when buildup of carbon dioxide. the costs of decommissioningworn-out power plants are added to construction and operating costs thatare already prohibitive in many countries. (Fora detailed discussion of the nuclearpower BREAKING OUTOR option, seeState of the-ilrort the possibilities of developing renewable BREAKING DOWN energy resources that do not produce The demographic transition,a concep- net carbon dioxide - --Such as hydro- tual device, used by demographersto ex- power, photovoltaics, wind power, solar plain the relationship between poptila-

34 Skye of the World I 9g5 tion growth and levels of development, such an increase with its biological sup- has three stages. In the first, which char,- port systems and social institutions in- acterizes traditional societies, both birth tact. and death rates are high. Societies have "Itrz, evidence of recent years suggests existed under these circumstances for that countries stuck in the second stage long stretches, for thousands or even for More than a,Nfew decades exrrience J hundreds of thousands of-years, without mounting population pressures, pres- any appreciable change in population suresthateYrentually destroy forests, size. Births and deaths are largely in bal- grasslands,' and croplands. As these re- ance. squicesdeteriorate,mortalityrates In the second portion of the demo- begin to rise to reestablish the balance graphic transition, living conditions get between births and deaths that nature better as public health improves, vac- demands. Countries that do not make it cines become available, and food pro- to the demographic equilibrium of the duction expands. In this stage births re- third stage will eventually retuvin to the main high* but deaths fall. The result is demographic equilibrium of ate first. rapid population growth. A society at Nature provides no long-term alterna- this point would typically have a crude tive. birth rate 44'5 and a crude death rate of The mechanics of this "demographic 15,yieldinganannualpopulation regression," rooted in the changing bal- growth of 3 percent. ance between population size and basic The third stage sees living conditions resources, arc becoming clear. For coun- improve liirthee, birth control become tries that remain in the second stage for widely available and used, and births dean extended period, population growth clining to again roughly 'offset deaths. A eventually shrinks the cropland per per- balance between births and deaths in a son. Such areas are also likely to be los- modern societyusuallyoccurswith ing topsoil clue to erosion. In these situa- crude birth and death rates of around tions,thetechnologicaladvanceisin 13. The United Kingdom, West Ger- agricultureplus any increases in fertili- many, and Hungary arc among the zer use that can be affordedmay not be dozen or so countries that have corm- sufficient to maintain per capita food pleted the demographic traivition, rees- production. The government must ei- tablishiKgan eqtkilibritAbetween births ther use foreign exchange to im ort and deaths. food or obtain food assistancerom Societies can remain in either the. first abroad. Because societies in the iiddlc or the final stage of the demographic stage of the demographic transi.on are transition indefinitely. This is not true, largely agrarian, a decline in p r capita however, of the middle phase. Popula, food production invariably!( anslates (ions growing at 3 percent per year mul- into a decline in per capita ini7ome. tiply twentyfold in a century. Many de- Many/Ithe countries that have bro- veloping countries have been inthe ken ou of the second stage 9f the demo- middle stage since roughly mid-century.,graphic transition have doge so with the Those now in the fourth decade of 3 per- aid of cheap energy and rolatively favor- AmiAmiLIALpitiattaticawrgnyilLu_abLe_population/land ratris. Others are route to the twentyfold increase in a cen- finding it increasingly dificult to reach tury that this arithmetic dictates. Unfor- the point where gains1 per capita in- tunately, itis difficult to imagine any come and the use of bi th control begin country, even one that was sparsely ,to reinforce each oth r with substantial populatedatmid-century,surviving gains in living' stan0 -Os.

3-5 A False Sense of Security (20

Kilograms through the end of the century.36 300 Africa, in contrast, shows no 'movement toward the thirdstage of the demo- China graphic transition. And time is running out. Population growth for the continent 200 as a whole is close to 3 percent. The share of the population nsing birth con- Africa trol is minuscule. Grain production per 100 capitainAfricawasquitesteady throughout the fifties and sixties, but it Sown. S DIV Airlculturr turned downward after reaching a postwar high of 180 kilograms per year in 1950 1960 1970 1980 191(1 1967. During the mid-eighties, grain Figure 1-3. 6th' Production Per Capita in production per person is nearly one fifth China and Africa, 1950-84 below the level of the late sixties. As The prospect of moving from the mid- noted in the opening of this chapter, sev- dle to the final stage of the demographic eral countries are reporting starvation transition is p&haps..best -assessed by deaths.37. trends in per capita food production. In a recent report, the World Bank ex- China and Africa, with populations of pressed concern about rising death rates just over I billion and 531 million rein several African countries. Bank offi- spectively, illustrate contrasting pros - cials feel that in the absence of a major .t pects. China appears to be breaking out initiative, a number of countries will ex- and Africa, having failed to do so, ap- perience a disintegration of s unions and will reveto "bush" econo- peal.s to be breaking down. (See Figure mies. The seriousnes. of this situation 1 -3.) led several West European members of As recently as the early seventies, per the Bank in mid -1 984 to call for the es- capita food production in China was lit- tablishment of an emergency rescue tle improved from the mid-fifties, the fund for Africa. Without a sharply ex- years immediately preceding the agricul- panded effort in both family planning turally disastrous Great Leap Forward. and farming, the prospect is that much During the past decade, however, per of the continent will drop back into the capita food production in China has first stage of the deinographic transi- climbed at an encouraging rate. The rate tion." of population growth has been halved since- the early seventies, dropping to just over 1 percent per year. Grain pro- Without a sharply expanded effort duction per capita in the mid-eighties averages over 250 kilograms per year, -up in both family plahning and farm- by one fvrth from the 200 kilograms ing, much of Africa will drop back per year .or the early seventies. Even into the" first stage of the demo- though China has serious environmental graphic transition. problems in agriculture, including soil erosion, and 'although its cropland base 'is likely to continue shrinking during the Other major areas of the world hive century's closing two decades, there is a also remained in the second stage for a good prospect that living standards in dangerously long period. `khe southern - the nation will continue to improve most.Andean countries in Latin America

36 (a2) State of theWorld-1985 Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, andPeru Kilograms have experienced a decline inper capita 150 food production formore than a decade. Indeed, the trend inper capita grain production in these four countriesis re- 100- (Bohm. Chat. markably similar to that of Africa.(See Ecuador. int.ru) Figure 1-4.) Grain output keptpacewith growth during the fifties and 50 - sixties but then was eventually-6ver- whelrned by the increase in humannum- bers. As a result, per capita grainpro- Sonar 1'. S Dip!. of Agriculture

duction has fallen by roughlyone fourth 1 over the past 15 ..years. The forces lead- 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 ing to a decline in per capita grainpro- Figure 1-4. Grain Production Per Capita in duction in the South Andesare precisely South Andean Countries, 1950-84 the same as those in Africarapidpopu- the middle stage of the demographic lation growth, widespread soilerosion transition for a dangerously long period and desertification, and lack of attention to agricultural development." of time. Croplandper person is' shrinking, soil erosion continues, and popula- If data were available for northeastern tion growth remains rapid, making it in- Brazil, a region containingsome 43 mil- creasingly difficult for these countriesto lion people, it would undoubtedlyshow set in motion the self-reinforcing trends a similar trend and for the same reasons. of rising food productionper person In addition to high birth rates and wide- and falling birth rates. spread soil 'erosion, this regionmay be Under the circumstances suffering from climate change no w unfold- as well. ing there is growing uncertaintyabout Another major area of the worldat risk is the Indian subcontinent. Population how many countries in the middle ofthe dembgraphic transition will be able growth ranges from 2.4 percent in India to break out. By the end of thecentury the to roughly 3 percent per year in Ban- world may be divided intotwo groups: gladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan.Under these conditions,- grain countries that have progressed into the output per per- final stage and those that havefallen son in the early eighties is little changed back to the first stage. There -) from the early fifties." are Unlikely to be many countries left in the middle. With a population of 960 million and a growth rate in excess of 2.2 percent per The deirlographic transition in eachna- tion will have been largely completedor year, the subcontinent has remained in aborted.

37 0 2 jReducingHunger Lesterk.Brown

During the third quarter of this century impressive gains in per capita grainpro- world food production surged ahead, duction in China have provided that outstisippingpopula,tiongrowth and country with a substantial safety margin, holding out the hope that hunger could one that would permit it to weather two be banished. Over thelast decade, how- successive poor harvests withoutany se- ever, growth in production has slowed, rious .malnutrition. .-InAfrica, on the raising doubts about the long-term food other hand, the food situation is deteri- prospect. Despite advances in technol- orating. The 1 percent annual decline in ,ogy, the.effort to reduce hunger is at a per capita grain output since 1967 has standstill. The failure to adequately feed been aggravated bythe drought of 1983 all of humanity hangs heavilyon the col- and 1984: Even before the drought, leciivF conscience, dimming themany nearly a fifth of Africa's peoplewere remarkable achievements of the late being sustained by imported grain) twentieth century. There is a similarly sharp contrast in The shifting contours of the world the agricultural performances of the food economy are dominated bytwo United States and the Soviet Union. major developments. One is the leveling Over the past generation the United off of per capita food production since States has become the world's breadbas- 1973 following a quarter-century ofket, supplying a larger share of world steady gains. The other is the divergence grain imports than Saudi. Arabia does of among continents and major countries oilimports.Meanwlijk,__tke_ Soviet that this global trend obscures. Insome Union, which has both the world's larg- regions per capita food production is est .cropland area and a farm sector surging ahead; in othersitisfalling 'plagued by mismanagement and under- steadily. mined by soil erosion, is now projected China and Africa illustrate these con- to import a record 50 million tons of trasts, as discussed k in Chapter 1. The grain this year, more than any country in

d8 (24) State of the World-1985 history. Ironically, its principal supplier Table 2-1. Estimated Growth in World

is the United States. Each day two U.S. 4.4 Croplandfflrea, 1950-80,With freighters loaded with grain head for the Projections to 2000 Soviet Union, indicating that economic interests can override ideological differ- Growth ences. Indeed, the long line of ships that Period Per Year links American farms with Soviet dining (percent) tables may carry within it the seeds of a lasting detente. Late fillies 1.0 Seventies 0.3 Eighties 0.2 Nineties 0.15 souRcr.: Francis Urban and Thomas Vollrath. Pat- terns and Trends in World Agricultural Land Use AWash- THE CROPLAND TREND ington, U.S. Government hinting Office. From the beginning of agriculture until 1984). roughly mid-century, growth inthe ginal land in favor of more-intensive use world's croPland area more or less kept pace with that of world population. The of the most productive land. Such de- great bulk of the year-to-yea? growth .in cline has been under way now. for close food supply came from expanding cul- to two decades in Western Europe, East- ivat ern Europe, and Eastern Asia, including . area. Improvements in land pro- tivity came slowly or not at all. At both China and Japan. In West Germany id-century, this began to change. A and Poland, for example, the postwar 984 study by the U.S. Department of peak in ambit land area occurred in Agriculture (USDA) showed that growth 1955. In France, Japan, and Yugoslavia, in the world'i cropland slowed markedly it was 1960; in China, the peak was in during the fifties, averaging less than I 1963.3 percent per yearroughhalf that of population.Thereaftertherateof growth in cropland area continued to Roughly a third of the world's peo- slow, falling below 0.3 percent per year ple now live in countries where in the seventies. USDA- projects that this cropland area is shrinking. slowing will continue, falling to 0.2 percent in the eighties and 0.15 percent in the nineties. (See. Table 2-1.) If these trends do materialize, the world crop- Roughly 1.5 billion of the world's peo- land base will expand about 4 percent ple, about a third of the total, now liVe in betweeii 1980 and 2000, while popula- countries where cropland area is shrink- tion growth is projected to expand by ing. China and Italy, for example, have some 40 percent.' lost 5.1 and 4.8 percent of their cropland Net growth in the world cropland area since the decline began. (See Table 2-2.) in any given year reflects the difference Changes such as tlicie" reflect the rcla- . t II I tyttreimintrous-pturmtd---- are still adding some new cropland, and minus forces affecting the cropland area. a much smaller, though growing, num- Expansion commonly results from push- ber where the cropland area is shrinking. ing back itt frontiers of settlement, irri- In same of the latter group*the shrinkage,gation projects, drainage projects, the results from the abandonment of mar- clearing of forests, or the plowing of Redwing I unget ( 2 5 grassland. The addition by new settle- reclaimed during the early eighties, For ment projects is perhaps best illustrated the Soviet Union, at least, this rivals the by Brazil, whichisencouraging new annual additions fromirrigation.In farms and ranches in the Cerrado and Central America, cropland area expan- the Amazon Basin, and by Indonesia, .sion comes at the expense of fgrests, which is attempting to resettle people while in East Africa and Argentinare-

from densely populated Java to the outer cent growth has come Mostly from grass- islands of Su Matra, Kalimantan, and land tonyrsion. I he same has beentrue Sulawesi. for some of tire Great Plains states In the New irrigation projects hate played a United States: Colorado's Weld Comity central role in adding to the cultivated and Montana's Petroleum County have Brea of semiarid countries such as Pakis- taken step's to prohibit -the plowing of tan and Mexico. Indeed, throughout his- grasslands, which are vulnerable to wind tory irrigation has played a major role in enision mite the grass rover is removed .1 boosting cropland productivity and ex On the !then of ledger, crop- panding the earth's food-producingea land cap be lost to such Anfarmuses its pacitics. The/growing pressures fin this' industrialization and tourbanization, riNst key input to agricultural productionare one of the globally pervasive discussed at length in Chapter 3. demographic trends of this century. Ac- Land reclamation by drainage figures iording to 1.,!.N. projections, the urban share of world population is projected to prominently in The Soviet Union, where increase from 29 percent in 1950 to 50' some 700,000 hectares per year is to be percent by 200(4, boosting the number of Table 2-2. Selected Countries With city-dwellers from 725 million to a pro- Declining Cropland Area, 1080 jected 3.1 billion'.5 0,e' The amount of cr pland disappearing Des hoe under cities is not Mown, but individual NiNtwar Peak From country data and various surveys do pro- in Arable Peak Year vide some indication. ,For-example, two Country Land Area 'to 1980 USDA surveysone in 1967 and the other in 1975indicated that 2.5 (year)) (percent) million hectares of prime U.S. cropland China 1963 -5.1 were converted to urban and built-up France 1960 13.3 uses during, the' eight year period. A 1.1ungary 1955 --6,6 study of urban encroachment on agricul- Ireland 140 tural land in Europe (grasslands as well Italy 1955 as croplands) front 1960 to 1970 found japan 1960 19.6 that West Germany was losing 0.25 per, Netherlands 1955 18.0 cent of its agricultural land yearly, or 1 Poland 1955 -9,7 percent every four years. For Fraicc and Portugal 1963 the pinted Kingdom; the cothparable South Korea 1968 figure was 0.18 percent per year, nearly SWeden 1955 21.0 2 percent for the decade.° 1A'uvt C(rtnan.) lor cur Yugoslavia. 1960 .encroachment, cropland is also being souticir.: Francis Urban and !loans 1'()111-ath, Pat- lost. to village expansion. Unfortunately, ferns and Trends in Agruldiural Land ('se (\N'asb- little research has been conductedon ,ington, 0.c.: U.S. Government Printing 011ire, this loss, In one analysis using dataover 1984). several decades for hisnative Ban-

.AU , A

(26) State of theWorld-1985 gladesh, Akef aiiconcludesthat aware of this but that "there is noway growth in the number of families and around the fact that good farmlarrat, that of the area occupied by the village located near transport, etc.) oftenriTces are cloS'ely related. One reason,,for this an excellent factory site."9 correlation is that homes are "made up The automobilization of societies also of locally. available materials, suchas claims cropland for highways, parking bamboo, thatch, and corrugated iron' lots,garages,andfillingstations. sheets and, as such, are never strong Growth in the world automohkleet enough to hold an upper story." Quail from 48 million in 1950.to 331 Million in reports that "every new village home- 1982 has claimed millions of hectares of stead is being built on cropland." Al- farmland fclr these purposes.19 As with though undoubtedly there, arc occa- factory sites, the flat, well-drained land sional exceptions,(brazi's general point thatis ideal for farming is also wellis a sound one, for Bengali villages re suited for highways and parking lots. usually surrounded by the rice fields on In addition to the conversion of crop- which they depend.7. land to nonfarm uses, excessive eco- Furthei' cast, MIReijing, Chinese plan- nomic demands and mismanagement ners are becoming alarmed over the loss are claiming cropland through desertifi- of. cropland to village home construc- cation, severe erosion, waterlogging and tion. One consequence of the.shift to a salinization of irrigated land, and the di- family-based, market-oriented farm sys- version of irrigation water to nonfarm tem is that the millions of peasants who uses. Soil erosion claims cropland either are becoming wealthy invariably. make through sheet erosion or as a result of building a new home their top priority.,gully formation. Although severe gully- Planners in Beijing have concluded that ing, leading to land abandonment, is. one way to minimize cropland conver- now conimonplace, it has received the sion- is to encourage peasants to con- least official attention where it is most struct two-story homes. Even so, the new advanced. A U.N. report on cropland in affluence in the countryside is exacting a Latin America notes .its severe dimen7 heavy toll on scarce croplands .sions in the Andean countries, where Apart from the expansion of human gullys are advancing through the steeply settlements per se, industrialization also sloping countryside like the lentacles. of consumes large areas of land. Indeed, a giant;. malignancy. As these gullys eat one of the principal causes of cropland their way across fielsis, farmers who are shrinkage in WesternEurope andJJapan already .hungry for land continue to tilt since the mid-fifties. has been factory. whatjs left, right up to the gully's edgsi construction,which wasparticularly thus accelerating its progress acrolt% raid from the mid- fifties through the the land.1' mid-seventies. More recently, industrial A report for Europe describes the ex- development has begun to. claim land in tensive abandonment of farmland in developing countries as well. Land-hun- Italy: "It is generally agreed that in Italy gry China has been especially affected: 2 million hectares have been abandoned Factories must be built in the east and in the last ten years.. .The farming south, where most Chinese live:which is measures wied .on this marginal land, also where most farmland is. located. have led to deterioration of the soil so Dwight Perkins, a Harvard scholar on that the land was consumed in the literal China, notes that the 10 pereentannual sense of the term."'Y Similarly, some of industrialgrowthsteadilyconsumes the- decline in the harvested area of ce- cropland. He believeSplannersare reals in Yugoslavia and Bulgaria over the 3.1 o 4i ,

Reducing I Inner (27) past two decades reflects the movement coming from the best one twentieth of from .eroded, worn-out soils in Farm our farmland." la It takes an estimated areas with rugged terrain." 240 acres of new land in, Canada's west- Other sources of cropland loss have ern provinces to replace 100 acres of received little attention. For example, land lost to urban expansion in the high- land for burial has claimed millions of er-rainfall eastern provinces. And. in hectares over the past generation. In some countries there has been a "retreat most countries this loss is minimized bX from the Margin" because of overexpan- using cemeteries. But in China, as men- sion. This occurred in the Soviet Union tioned in Chapter 1, the dead are buried during the early eighties, for example, as under mounds that are often 10c41 On a result of overexpansion into marginal good farmland: A s,tudy of this practice lands. in the immediate vicinity of Beijing re- By the year 2000 the area of new land ported that from 1949 until 1964 burial to be plowed will obviously be limited. mourtds claimed 213 hectares(526 Indeed, new land being added will acres) of fertile cropland, Multiplied barely of1Set the losses projected. For thousands of times over lb,- tlit) country planning purposes itis best to 'assume as a whole, it is clear .wir},-rtrfi is loss con- that virtuallx all growth in world food cerns Chinek political leaders. Accord- output by century's end will have to ingly, the government 'has launched a cone from raising land productivity. campaigntoencouragecremation. hang Yizhi, an official in the ministry of fivit 'affairs, observes that "we have to practice cremation in cities and in densely-populated rural areas. Otherwise the WATER AND BREAD living and the dead Will'have to scramble for land." Although it is difficult to per- The lack of unexploited water resources suade people to change centuries -old may constrain growth in world food out- traditions, Zhang believes that the shift put even more than the scarcity of unex- to the family responsibility system will ploitedfertileland.Incountriesas facilitate this transition: "If the peasants widely Sepaitted as Mexico and Pakis- want to become more prosperous, they tan, freshWater scarcity prevents the will not be able to let the dead occupy spread of high-yielding wheats. In the the limited. land thatisavailable for oviet Upidn, water shortages are frus- farming."4 tratingeffoits to expand feedgrain pro- Another factor in the would cropland duction for that country's swelling live- equasion is the low productivity of the stock herds. As new irrigation optio s new fields. In Nigeria and Brazil, where are exhausted, the link between wat r expansioh of cultivated area has been and bread becomes increasingly obN greatest, cereal yields have increased lit- ousy tle or none since 1950. The increasing. Although irrigated agAculture started use offertilizer'anb other inputs is being several thousand years ago, only in the offset by the declining quality, of crop- twentieth century has it covered much of land. the earth's surface. (For a fuller discus- In some countries, the land lost to skinof thereliance onirrigation nonfarm uses is being replaced by land throughout the world, see Chapter 3.) In of lowerproductivity. The Science 1800 an estimated 8 million hectares of Council of Canada reports that "half of the.world's cropland were irrigated. Al- the farmland lost to urban expansion is though irrigation increased substantially

A (28) State of the 11'orld-1985 from 1900 to 1950, the bulk of theex- meat until the entire surface is covered. pansion has occurred since then, wdli4This system requires that landbe fiat, the total irrigated area reaching_ 261 either naturally or as a result of artificial heti-A-es by 1982. (See Table2-3.) leveling. Another tradiiipnalpractice, Some 15 percent of the world'scrop- furrow irrigation, iscol t:11°111y used for land is irrigated,up from 11 percent in row crops such as corn, potatoes, and the early sixties. Although irrigationwas vegetables. With the advent picheap en- once concentrated in the Middle East, ergy, many farmers pumping water from where itfirst developed, thecenter of underground began distributing.the gravity has now shiftedto Asia. As of water through sprinkler systems,an en- 1980, 120 million hectares of the world's ergy-intensive method. 261 million irrigated hectaressome16 At the country level, irrigation plays 'percentwere located in, Asia. Today an important role feach of the big four the Middle Easotand 10.wth Africaac- food producers-kthe UnitedStates, the count for only 8 percent of the world Soviet Union, China, and India. Growth twill, as does the Soviet Union, andless in irrigated area in China sincemid-cen- than 10 percent is in the UnitedStates.. tury has been impressive, increasing Latin America accounts for -under10 from scarcely 20 million hectaresin percent of the world's irrigated land and 1950 to some 48 million by1980. Much subsaharan Africa has only 2 percent." of the increasewas achieved by labor- Irrigation canuse either underground intensive construction practices, andit is water or surface water from fivers, largely resptrisible for the increasein streams,,or lakes. Early irrigationsys- multiple cropping froman average of tems relied on surface water, usually that 1.3 crops per hectare in 1950to 1.6 in which was backed up behindan embank- 1980." ment of sonic sort so that it would flow India's net-irrigatedarea in 1950 was by gravity onto the fields. Usingunder- 21 million hectares, almost (.4..actlythe ground water requiresmore energy same as China's. But as of 1W it totaled since thewatermust be Idled. Irrigation- only some 39 million hectares. Thembst water distributiovechniques alsovary. rapid growth has occurredsincethemid- For crops such as rice, flooding iscom- sixties, following the introductionof monly used. Water is fedor pumped high-yielding wheat and rice Varieties onto a field enclosed by a small embank- that were bothmore responsive to the use of water and more exacting in their Table'2-3. Estimated Worldirrigated demiinds. This enhanced profitability Area,'1900-82 stimulated widespread investmentsby small farmers in wells of theirown so Irrigated they could more fully exploit the.yield Year Area potential of the new varieties." U.S.irrigatedarea has expanded (million hectares) throughout, the period from 1950to 1900 40 1978 but atdecelerating rate, Growth in the irrigated area from the 1950 mid-fifties 94 through the mid-seventieswas concentrated in the southern Great 1982 Plains, 261' largely based on water from theOgallala souitcr W. R. Rangeley, "IrrigationCurt-rut aquifer. Since 1978 U.S. irrigated'area Trends'and a Future Perspective," WorldBank -has actually declinedas a result of that Seminar, Washington, D.C., February 1983. aquifer's depletion and the diversionof

/13 Reducing Hunger 139) water to nonfarm uses in the sunbelt irrigation rises at the margin, andas the states." cost of energy to pump underground Soviet irriared area has grown stead- water also rises, attention will focus ily in recent recades. With some 18 mil- more on improving the efficiency of both lion hectares under irrigation, Soviet existing irrigation systems andwater plans call for an addition of roughly use. Unfortunately, the world in the mid- 700,000 hectares a year during the mid- ,eighties is not paying anywore attention eighties. An annual growth rate of nearly to water-use efficiency than it was to oil- 4 percent makes this sector one (SI the use efficiencyin1970:Increasingly, fastest-growing in the Sovieteconomy. modification of irriga(lon practicesto Such increase reflects the urgency that use water more economically will be the the Soviets attach to expanding the irri- key to expanding irrigated mod produc- gated area, because for them itboth tion. boosts food production and minimizes the wide swings in crop output thatre- sult from highly variable rainfall." Irrigation, often holds the key tocrop- ping intensity, especially in monsoonal THE FERTILIZER LINK .climates where the wet season isfol- lowed by dry months with little orno The mid-nineteenth-century discovery rain. Where temperatures permityear- by German agricultural chemist Justus round cropping, as they often do where von Liebig thatit was possible to replace the monsoon dominates rainfall, irriga all the nutrients removed from the soil. tion permits the production of two, by crops led to the modern chemical ler- three, or even more crops ,peryear. tipzer industry. More thanany, other technological advance,ithas spurred some remarkable food production gains. alien anda half people are now In the years following von Liebig's dis-, Jed with the additional Foodpro- covery, an embryonic chemical fertilizer duced with chemiCal fertilizer. industry developed, buta century was to pass before the industry came into its own, emerging as an important industrial sector of the world economy. As the Given the projected growth" in world frontiers. of agricultural settlement dis- food demand, the irrigated,area is cer- appeared after World War II andas pop- tain to expand. The question is howra- ulation growth accelerated; dthilnd for pidly. ilrojections by the .U.N. Food and fertilizer began to climb. In 1950 the Agriculture Organization (FAQ) showa world usedfleA than 14 million tons a possible 53 million hectares being added, chemical fersilizer. Withina decade that between 1980 and 1990, an increase of figure had doubled. And in the next dec- one fourth within a decade." Whether ade it doubly! again. By 1984 world fer- or not these figures do materialize will tilizer consumption totaled 12 1 million be influenced by capital availability. Not -tons, nearly a ninefold increase in 34 only does it take a great deal of capital to. years. (See Table 2-4.) Eliminating its irrigate this much land, but thecost per use vidgy would probably cut world food hectare of future expansionis rising production by at least a third. Ata mini- since the least costly sites have largely mum, a billion and a half people are now been developed. fed with the additional food produced As the cost of bringing new land under with chemical fertilizer.

44 ty (3 State of the Wprid./ 985

Table 1-4. World Fertilizer Use, 1950-84 Kilograms 30 Fertility' Year Use

(million metric tons) 20 1950 13.3

1955-1, 18.3 10 .Sourres. United Nattorts; 1960 27.0 S Dept- cy. Agriculture

1965 23.1 1910 1%0 1970 1900 19)0 Figure 1970 63.0 2-1 World FertilbLer Use PorCapita, 11950-84 1971 68.3 1972 72.0 , 1973 77.24 given dietary level. (See Figure 2-1.) 1974 83.6 The soil nutrients most needed by plants lire nitrogen, phosphorus, and po- 1975 82.4 tassium. Many other elements also feed 1976 90.0 t plants: Magnesium, calcium, and sulfur, 1977 95.6 for example, are considered minornutri- 1978 99.4 ents. An there are trace nutrients such 1979 106.9 as zinc, boron, and copper. In both quan- titative and economic terms, however, 1980 113.1 4, the chemical fertilizer industry is based 1981 116.1 `k almost entirely on nitrogenous, phos, 1982 114.3 phasic, and potassic fertiliiers. Among 1983 116.1 these three, nitrogen dominates, ac- 1984 121.0 counting for just over half of world fertili- sowtor.: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, zei- output; phosphate and potashac- FAO 1977 Annual Fertilizer Review (Rome: 1978), cOunt for roughly one quarter each.22 Paul Andrilentis,,U.S. Departtnent of Agriculture, private communication, September 1983. and .Historically,WesternEurope,the Worldwatclt Institute estimates for 1984. United States, and Japan dominated world output but since nitrogen fertili- The increase in world fertilizer rise zer is synthesized from atmospheric ni- since mid-century has been driven by trogen, it'can be produced wherever en- populottion growth and by the expanding ergy. is available. Following the 1973 oil appetite for anim4protein. As the stork price increase, most new nitrogen plants outruns the plow, the role of fertilizer have been built in oil- exporupg countries, particularly these that flare natural increases. The reduction in world crop, gas. Since so many of these are develop- land area per.person since 1950 has been ing countriesChina, India, Indonesia, offset by ratsing per capita fertilizer use Mexico, and several Middle Eastern oil from 5 kilograms in 1950 to over 25 kilo- exportersthisshifthasmarkedly A 4. grams by W80. In simple terms, more boosted the Third World share of nitro- people now means less cropland per per- gen fertilizer production.24 son, requiring more fertilizer to satisfy a Phosphate and potash, on the other

ti 45 Reducing Ilunger (3/ ) hand, are mined only by the handful of spread inefficiency in fertilizeruSe that countries that have indigenous reserves. isregularly reported in Soviet jour-

Most of the world's phosphate is mined nals." . . in Morocco and the United States, prin- Fertilizer application ratesvary widely cipally in Florida. In 1980 these two notonly among countriesbutalso countries together exported 31 million amongdifferent crops. Countries with tons of phosphate rock, nearly three the most fertilizer-intensive agriculture fifths of the world total. Most of the re- include Japan and several in Western mainder was exported by Jordan and Is- Europe. U.S. farmers in the corn belt also rael in the Middle East; by Togo, Tu- apply fertilizer quite generously, nisia, and Senegal in Africa; and by the whereas those in tire semiarid western Soviet Union." plains use it sparingly. Cereals, grown on Production of potash, the third major some 70 percent of the world's cropland, nutrient,is dominated by' the: Soviet account for the largest share of fertilizer )nion and Canada. which togrther ar- use. Other heavily fertilized crops include c um for 55 percent of world produc- cash crops, particularly those grown tion capacity. East and West Germany for export such as cotton and tobacco. divide rather equally an additional 21 In recent years the growth in world percent, and most of the remainder is fertilizer use has slowed markedly. After produced inthe United States and growing 7.5 percent annually from 1950 France. Given the international inter- through 1973, it dropped to 5.6 percent dependence of the worldfertilizerecon- per year during 11973-79 and to 2.5 per- omy, anything that affects international cent per year since the 1979 oil price ttadesuch as export -embargoes, the-increase. (See Table 2.-5.) This slow- formation of export cartels, or external down is not due to any single influence debtcan affect farmers' use of phos- but rather to several, many of them as- phate or potash." sociated directly or indirectly with rising World fertilizer consumption, like the oil prices. production of nitrbgen fertilizer, is shifting toward the Third World, As of 1981 Table 2-5. World Grain ProductionAlia the industrial countries were consuming Fertilizer Use at Three Oil Price Levels, 72 million tons of chemical fertilizer, 63 1950-84 percent of the World total. Developing .countries were using 43 million tons, Annual Growth just over a third of the total, but their Oil Price Grain Fertil- consumption has been growing far more Per Produce, izer rapidly, suggesting that by the year 2000 Period Barrel ton Use usage may be rather evenly divided be- tweenthe North and the South, though (curl (percent) per capita use will be far higher in the doll rs) former." 1950-73 2 3.1 7.5 All the big four food producer's are heavy users of fertilizer. The Soviet 1973-79 il L9 5.6 Union, which has invested heavily in 24.., 'manufacturing facilities, now 495 more 19792-8,11 i28 2.0 2.5 fertilizer than any oth1r countryexceon '1984 grainpdAuction and fertilizeruse es- the United States. Despite this edge, So- timated by Worldwatch Institute. viet grain output is scarcely half that of soutcEs: Based,..on data from International Mone- the United States, confirming the wide- tary Fund and U,S. Department of Agriculture. State Of the IVoildIOS 5 Where _fertilizer use is high, diminish- Fertilizerconsmuptionhasalso ing returns arc setting in. As applica- lagged becausepf-depressed economic . lions increase, so do crop yields, but conditions in rural areas. Weak farm only up to a point. At the lower levels of prices and mounting farm debt Aiave use the crop yield response, to each addi- even arrestedhe growth in fertilizer tional kilogram of fertilizer is strong, but consumption in tht United States. After as application rates rise the increase di- anextraordinarygrowth,stretching minishes, until eventually there isno re- from 1940 through 1980. fertilizeruse in sponse. A broad-brush comparison of theworld'sleadingfoodproducer changes in the ratio of world grainpro- dropped sharply during the early eight- ductiontofertilizeruseovertime ies. (See Figure 2-2.) confirms this diminishingresponse. In Where intensive agriculture isprac- 1950 world fertilizer use was just under ticed, as in the U.S. korn belt, theenergy 14 million tons and grain production embodied in the fertilizerincluding %sits (523 million tons, yielding 46 tons of that used in manufacturing, transporting grain produced for every tan of fertilizer And applying itofi en exceeds that used used. Fifteen years later thisresponse as traitor fuel:Othe total energy in- ratio had been cut in half, with each ton vestecr in fertilizer, roughly four fifths is of fertilizer yielding some 23tons of ti4ed to produce it andone fifth to dis- grain. By 1979 the ratio had fallen to _just tribute and apply it. Some 70 percent of over 13, where it has remained for the nitrogenous fertilizer is produced with last four years. This leveling offsuggests natural gas, and he remainder ispro- that farmers are not finding it profitable ,;st, duced with naphtha, fuel oil, and coal. to increase greatly their use of chemical But regardless of the c!nergy.source, ris- fertilizer." ing energy costs are reducing the profit- In many Third Worldcountries, ability of fertilizer use," mounting foreign debt has constrained The ratio between the price of grain fertilrteruse. The more foreig\ ex- and that of fertilizer has changedover change required to service debt, the less the past few decades, and the realcost of is avSilable for importing fertilizer. Bra- fertilizer now constrains use to someex- zil, for examplethe western hemi- Nt i Gun sphere's second ranking food producer tiliort tins has severely restricted its fertilizer imports: Several other heavily indebted Third World countries have done the same." Closely associated with both external debt and internal deficits is thevressure to reduce or eliminate subsidies for ferti- . lizer use and for food consumption., both of Which reduce the profitability of fertilizer use. In some instances nationalgov- ernments have decided on their own to reduce these subsidies inair, effort to lower deficits. In other cases thepies Sonny- IS. Dept of Agrtrulturr stitV has comae from the International Mo4tary Fundas a condition for con- 1x1.10 I 950 I 970 1990 -tinue\d funding or for the renegotiation Figure 2 -2. U.S. Fertilizer Consumption of debt repayment." (Material Wright), 1930-84 Reducing !flinger (31 tent. For example. in the United States Future fertilizer use will be influenced 3.4 tons of wheat were required to pur- heavily by the continuing spread of irri- chase a ton of nitrogen fertilizer in 1960. gation and by the energy/food-price re- A breakthrough in, nitrogen synthesis in lationship. However, inatleastone 1963 increased the energy efficiency of major food-producing regionthe synthetic nitrogen fixation by some 40 southern Great Plains of the United percent aild reduced nitrogenfertilizer States--th irrigatedarea has begun to costs beginning in the late sixties.As decline,makingsubstantialfurther use of this new technologyspread, fert- growth in fertilizei- use there unlikely, ilizerpricesdeclined.By the early Energy prices over the long term seem seventies' only 1.6 tons of wheat were certain to rise. Oft setting this atleast needed to buy a ton Of nitrogen fern,- partially isthe temporary shift toward izer. After the oil price hikes of 1973 the use olflared natural gas as a nitrogen this trend was reversed, however, and fertilizer feedstock. As long as `gas sup- the amount of-gram required to pur- plies hold up, this will tend to dick the chase a givjtt amount of fertilizer in- rise in nitrogen fertilizer manudacturing creased somewhat. In 1984, sonte 2.1 costs, though not those ofphosphate tons of wheat bought one tonof nitro- and p(itash. gen fertilizer." In contrast to the 1950-80 period, when worldfertilizeruseincreased rather predictably, it has become One

erratic since 1980sometimes increas- . ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY ing, sometimes decreasing, but certainly notmaintainingthe uninterrupted Any assessment of the world food pros- growth of the preceding three. decades. pect must consider advances inagricul- As a general matter the fertilizer use tural technology. The doubling of world projections of recent years have been food output over the past generation is lowered with each successive assess- largely the product of the -expanded use ment. Wheti the FAO did its-Agriculture: of irrigation, chemical fertilizer, and im- Toward 2000 study in 1979, it projected proved varieties. With cereals, which that fertilizer consumption in the 90 de- "dominate food output, the development veloping countries (excluding China) of hybrid corn and the dwarf rites and would increase from 19 million tons in wheats have been centrally important. thebasic discoveries , 1980 to 93 million tons by the end of the Interestingly, century." This increase of 8.3 percent that led to these advances arc by no per year was consistent with the histori- means recent. Earlyagriculturalists in cal trend, but it now appears that growth the Middle East discovered that divert- will be Par slower, that the future will not ing river water onto thenrfieldsin- ba simple extrapolationof-the past. creased their yields. The principles of rojections of global use arc also chemical fertilization were discovered being downgraded. An assessment un- more than a century ago.Likewise, the dertaken in 1981 by an FAO/U.N. In- laws of heredity were firsChirmulated by dustrialDevelopment. Organization/ Mendel in the Mid-nineteenth century. It World Bank group projected that by was the massive applicatiopof these in- 1985-86 world fertilizer use would reach teracting technologies and insights after 147 million tons. By early 1984 USDA World War 11, however, that set the was projecting 1988 world usage at142 stage for the unprecedented growthin million tons of fertilizer." world food st)pplies.

L) (34) State y the World-I-1985 The mid-eighties!are a particularly rich biC;log-istsexpect all biological growth time in agriculturzWresearch,with ad- filik1C11011:5 vances in to follow. (See Figure 2-3.) biot eihnologyincluding. From the mid-fifties until thelate sixties; recombinant DNA, tissueculture, and 74elds of this cloningopening new frontiers crop nearly tripled, climb in farm tng from 1,200 kilogramsto 3,300 kilo- technology. Exciting thoughthese tech- Arms per hectare. This nologies are, they have nonetheless remarkable been "growth was made possible bythe rapid greatly overplayed by thepopular press. spread of hybrid sorghum and The goals of agricultural irrigation, research remain particularly in the U.S. southernplains, the samehowto get more graM per and by heavy increases in hectare of land chemical ferti- or more milk per cow. lizer applications. Theprincipal benefits from these three technologiescame between 1955 and 1966, the steeply rising The goals of agricultural research part of the S-shaped curve. remain the samehowto get more Although there has beensome fluctua- grain per hectare of landor more tion since then, there is lit tieindication of milk percow. any further increase inaverage yield. Lacking another major breakthroughof some sort, future increases in U.S.soil- !Wm :yields are likelyto be -modest. In- Biotechnology can help acceleratethe deed, as the Ogallala research effort. It is not aquifer under the a new tool kit but southern plains is depleted,many farm- an additional tool put In the existing ers will revert to dryland brining, in kit, one that will further progress tow.ard which case sorghum yields in2000 could existing goals. Its role isput into well be markedly lower than by Thomas today. N. Urban,presi ent Cornyields havealsoincreased of Pioneer Hi-BredInternational,/ the dramatically, world's largest producer of nearly tripling between hybrid /seed 1950 and ale early eighties.(See Figure corn. He observes that "thenew /tech- 2:4.) This impressive gain is niques will be helpful in primarily speeding t p our the result of continuouslyimproving hy- work but they willnot change c nven- tional breeding methods.""1' tsame point vas made by theU.S. ice of Kilograms Techfiology AssesStrient inits1 81 re- 4,000 -4 port:son applied genetics:"The n.v tools will be used to complement,but not replace, the well-establishedpra nees of plant and animal breeding."37 3 (X)0 Ap examination of the histori6Iyield trend of the three principa rcereals grownintheUnitedStat scorn, 2,000 wheat,. .and sorghumprovies both some sense of the potential Ir raising yields in countries wherea ricultural 1,00(H modernization is only beginng and an indication of the longer-term onstr'aints Source: f:. S. Dept. of Agrtrultun. in agriculturally advancedso ieties." The yield trend for grain 1 sorghum in 1950 1960 1970 1980 the United States sincemid-century il- 1990 Figure 2-1, U.S. Grain SorghumYield Per etrates clearly the S-shapedcurve that Hectare, 1950-84

4 9 4 liptN N'

Reducing Hunger (35) Kilograms Lions,thtis -limiting the potential re- 6,000 sponse to fertilizer use. Sourer 1)et,t. of Although rice yields in Japan started Apicidintr increasing well before those of cereals in 6,000 the United States, the steady rise that . V spanned several decades has been interrupted in recent years. (See Figure 2-5.) -1.009 Over the last decade there has been little increase in Japanese rice yields, which average roughly 4.5 tons per hectare of milled rice. As with sorghum and corn in the United States, using more fertilizer has little effect on yields. 1 I I 1 1 .ter 1900 1030 1060 1990 To assess fully the potential for boost- Figure 2-4, U.S. Corn Yield Per Hectare, 1900-84 ing world food output, 'Current yields in developing countries need to be compared with those of the more agricultur- buds interacting with the increasing ap- ally advanced countries. In the mid-eigh- plication of chemical fertilizer2Although ties Argentine corn yields, for example, the rise in -corn yields has slowed since were scarcely half those of the United the early seventies, it still shows a mod- .States., suggesting that over time corn est upward trend. As with sorghum, U.S. yields in Argentina, a country with simi- corn yields have also shown greater vari- lar soils and climate, could be doubled as ability as they increased. agriculture modernizes. Year-to-year fluctuations from 1950 Two of the most widely discussed po- throtigh 1969 were quite modest. In tential- breakthroughs in agricultural 1970, however, when the corn blight research are the development of nitro- strusk, yields dropped sharply because gen-fixing cereals and of more photo- the predominant corn varieties con- synthetically efficient crops. Although tained little resistant stock. Yields de- the former is techrtically possible, evi- clined even further in 1974 because of dence is mounting that if cereals are en- bad weathera combination of heavy gineered to behave like 'legumes, they spring rain's that postponed planting and will pay a yield penalty. In simplest an, early frost that damaged much of the crop before it was ripe. And in 1980 and 1984, drought played a major role. It will Kilograms be fiome years before it can be deter- 5,000 mined whether U.S. corn yields are leveling off as those for sorghum have. '1,000 With wheat, yield increases in the k lnited States have been less dramatic 3,000 than for corn or sorghum. But after several years of static or declining levels 2,000

during the seventies, they have -resumed 1,000 their upward trend. In contrast to corn, Sourct: U.S. 1)ept. of Agriculture which is grown under high rainfall conditions, and lorghum, which is planted 1900 1930 1960 1990 largely on irrigated land, most U.S. Figure 2,5, Rice Yield Per Hectare in Japan, wheat is grown under diryland condi- 1900-84

50 I)

I (36) State of theWorldI985 terms, if the nitrogen-fixing bacteria that a proven sire to father thousands of off- attach themselves to the roots of the ce- spring per year, an outstAnding cow can reals are supported with photosynthate produce only 50-60 viable embryos per from the plant, the drain on the plant's. year for transplant into less productive metabphc energy will reduce the energy cows." available to form grain. In applied agricultural research, as in any other area of endeavor governed by economics, the easy things are usually Evidence is mounting that if cereals undertaken first. After several decades are engineeredtobehavelike of sustained progress in raising crop and legumes, they will pay a yield pen- livestock productivity,itis becoming more difficult to maintain the rate of alty. gain. Returns may be diminishing on investment in agricultural research. Don- bling or tripling U.S. research expendi- Sharply increasing the photosynthetic tures on sorghum, for example, is not efficiency will not he easy either, Some likely to have much effect on yieldi Like- gains have been made by plant breeders wise, the ability of researchees in japan who have improved leaf arrangements in to raise rice yields appears limited, re- order to collect more sunlight. Dwarf gardless of the level of research expendi- wheats and rices have upright leaves, for tures.' example, that enable them to absorb The bottom line in assessing the po- more sunlight than traditional varieties tential of advancing technology to in- can. Of these two possible advances, crease world food output rests with only increased photosynthetic efficiency photosynthesis,nature'sprocessfor could actually raise yields. Nitrogen fixa- converting solar energy into biochemi- tion by cereals would simply reduce cal energy, a form that can be used by chemical fertilizer use and hence the en- animals. This process, which is unlikely ergy intensity of cereal production. Both to be bypassed, is governed 4 the basic breakthroughs are long shots, however, laws of physics and chemistrysome- representing basic feats of biological en- thing worth keeping in mind lest pie-in- gineering. the-skyassessmentsoftechnology In livestock research, there are also achieve more currency than 'they designs of diminiShing returns. The com- serve. mercialization of artificial insemination of dairy cows a generation ago set the stage for a rapid -upgrading of dairy herds and dramatic advances in milk production per cow. In the United States, milk production per cow tripled FOOD SECURITY TRENDS over the past generation. More recently, Since 1973, as noted, world grainpro- transplanting embryos from superior duction has barely kept pace with popu- cows to inferior ones has provided a way lation growth. (See Table 2-6.) The diff- to maximize the progeny of highly pro- erence between a 3 percent growth rate ductive cows. But the. role of embryo of grain production and one of 2 percent transplantation in raising dairy herd pro- is the difference between -a world where ductivity will be modest compared with a rising tide of food output is improving that played by artificial insemination: diets across the board and one where Whereas artificial insemination permits. food production is barely keepingpace Reducing tiunger (37) with population. As indicated earlier, the wheat shortages beginning in the late rising price of oil affects the demand for summer of 1972. When poor harvests food as well as the supply. The lack of followed during the next twoyears in growth in per capita income for the major food-producing regi4s suchas world since 1979 has virtually eliminated China, the Indian subcontitient, the So- the income component of food demand viet Union, and the United States, the growth. Eliminating hunger and malnu- rebuilding of world grain stockswas un- trition thus. requires not only producing fortunately delayed. more food but also raising purchasing The combination ofcarry-over storks power among the "Nor. . and idled U.S. cropland amountedto the Discussions of food security at the equivalent 4243 million tons of grain in global level commonly focus on foodre- 1984,' decrease from 277 milliontons serves, typically me Nurtured in terms of the previous year. Nonethekss,even this carry-over stocksthose stores of -grain reduced level of grain and croplandre- on hand when harvest Of the new crop serves equaled 56 days of world food begins. (See Table 2-7.) Thesereserves consumption, more than enoughto clearly do pro ide some security, but the niaintain relatively stable prices in world cropland idle(tinder U.S. farm pro= grain markets. grams is also a reserve, though one year With over 90 percent of the world removed. Except \during the 1972-75 grain harvest consumed in the country in '- period, these two reserves together have which it iA produced, food security,par- maintained a remarkable stability in the ticularly in the poor countries, is' in- world grain market.. fluenced by the relationship between A poor harvest in the Soviet Union in growth in food output and that ofpopu- the summer of 1972, followed bya deci- lation.4° Since 1973, as indicated, the sion in Moscow to offset crop shortfalls race.hetween food production andpop- by imports rather than by belt-tighten- ulation growth has been a standoff. Al- ing and also by a U.S. election-year deci- though per ca rain production for sion to idle a rather large amount of the world asw tole has been static dur- cropland, set the stage for severe world ing this period, it has increased steadily

Table 2-6. World'Grain Production, Total andPer Capita, at Three Oil Price Levels, 1950-84 Annual rowth Grain Oil Price Grain Production 4Period Per Barrel Production Population Per Person (current dollars) (percent) 1950-73 2 3.1 1.9 1.2

197-3-79 12 1.9 1.8 0.1

1979-84 28 2.0 . 1.7 0.3 souRcEs: International Moneiary hind, lnternahonal Financial Statistics, variousissues; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, ll'orld lndiceA of efoculturldand FoodProduction, 1950-83(unpublished printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1984); United Nations,Monthly Bulletin ofStatEits, New York, various issues. (38) State of the World-4985 le" Table 2-7. Index of World Food Security, 1960-84 Reserves World Grain Carry-Over Equiv. of Stocks of Idled U.S. World Year Grain Cropland Total Consumption (million metric tons) (days)

1960 200 36 , - 236 104

1965 142 70 212 81

1970 164 71 235 75 1971 183 46 229 71 1972 143 78 221 67 1973 148 25' 173 50 1974 133 4 137 41

1975 141 3 144 43 1976 196 3 199 56

1977 194 rj,25 53 . 1978 221 22 243 62 1979 197 16 213 54

1980 187 0 187 -47 1981 220 0 220 55 1982 254 13 267 64 19831 185 92 277 65 19842 205 38 243, 56 1Preliminary./Projection based on May IS estimate of U.S. cropland idled. tiOURCES: Reserve stocks fpottiU.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 'Foreign Agricu/ture Circulars. 11 October 1983 and May 1984!'cropland idled id the United States from Randy Weber, USDA, private communications, August 1983 and June 1984.

in some regions of the world while de. percent. In 1983 it fell an additional 14 creasing in others and showing no per- percent be6use of the continent-wide ceptible movement up or down in still drought. Although in 1970 Africa was others. nearly self-sufficient in food, by 1984 im- Among, the trouble spots are Africa ports had reached 24 million tons. (See and the ;emit Andean countries of Latin Table 2-8) America, .00 described in Chapter 1. Africa is losing the battle to feed itself, These regions with declining food pro- Malnutrition and hunger are on the in- duction per person typically have fragile crease. That so many Africans are starv- ecosystems, most often semiarid or ing today is a tragedy. But the even mountainous,andrapidpopulation greater tragedy is that African govern- growth. Africa's postwar peak in' per ments and the international community capita grain production came in 1967 at are 'doing so little about the causal fac- 9,, 180 kilograms. By 1982 it had fallen 20 tors. More often than not food-price Reducing Hunger (39) Table 2-8. The Changing Pattern of World GrainTrade, 1950 -84'

Region 1950 1960 1970 1980 19841 (million metric tons) North America +23 +39 +56 +131 +126. Latin America +1 0 +4 -210 4 Western Europe 22 25 !t0 -l6 +13 E. Eur. and Soviet Union 0 0 46 51 Africa o 2 5 15 24 Asia 6 17 -37 63 80. Australia and New Zeal. +3 +6 +12 +19 +20 1Plus, sign indicates net exports; minus sign,net imports.*Preliminary. soust.cxs: Utiitcd Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Production Yearbook(Rome: various years); U.S. Department of Agriculture.,Forrip Agriculture Circulars. August 1983 and November 1984; adjustmentas . by Worldwatch 1130430e. policies are designed to pacify urban kingdom in either Wmingl .or finnily consumers rather than toiNtimulate de- planning that promises to arrest this velopment in the countryside. Except for deterioration in the foreseeable future. a few countries such, as Kenya, soilsklit- For these areas, as for Africa, thepros- servation programs are largetarnonexist- pects for food security are not at all enc. African leaders are only beginning promising. to sense the urgenclkof braking population growth. Famil Manning programs, iv where they exist, are still in an embry- onir-stage.-.. After Africa, food security is deteri- FOOD PRICES: THE l (mom orating most rapidly in mountainous Third World countries, largely because LINE their ecosystems are fragile and highly Assessing the food prospect is aqt sim- vulnerableto mismanagement. Land ply a matter of determining in a,tlinical hunger'intheAndean countries sense how much food the world's farm- re. Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peruis ev- ers can produce. They can peoduee.far ident in the push of untertaced farming more than they now, are. The real issue up the mountainsides. Event() the casual is at what cost and, most iniportantlY, observer it is evident that much of the how this cost will relate to the purchase soil on the steeply sloping,freshly ing power of the billion anda half poor- plowe ountainsides, willsoon be est people in /ht world, who already washeldtrkthestream beds below, leav- spend most ortheir income on food. ing only bare rock and hungry people. The cost of food production is deter- One of the most fragile mountain eco- mined by the resources available, suchas systems is that of Nepal, nestled in the land,' water, fertilizer, and pesticides, high Himalayas. Griin production per and the skill with which' theyare com- person there peaked in 1961 and has de- bined. Historically, advancing technol- clined some 27 percent or roughly 1 per- ogy has more than offset any restrictions cent per year since then.*' As With Africa imposed by resource availability, but and the Andean countries, there is noth- aver the past .decide or'this has being in prospect in this mountainous come more difficult. As a result, growth (40 State of the World-1983 .4 in food production has slowed. world population growth, thishiatteril is As noted earlierinthischapter, certain to continue.' As the harvested growth in the world's cropland- area is grain area moves toward one tenth of a now scarcely perceptible. USDA now hectare at the turn of the century, ever projects that between 1985 and the end larger amounts of fertilizer will have to of the century the world cropland area be applied to maintain per capita food will increase roughly 3. percent, just output, contributing to higher produc- about enough to provide. for one year's tion costs. increase in demand.42 Although all projections of world food supply and demand incorporSte projec -'

tions for the cropland area, none take ..1 The most important force driving into account the record amount of top- the cost of food production upward soil being lost from the world's cropland b is the shrinkage of cropland per base through erosion. The loss of solve person. 25.4 billion tons of topsoil from the world's cropland in excess of new soil being formed is reducing the inherent Althoughirrigationhasrecently productivity of land. The linkage be- played a major role in boosting land pro- twecn soil erosion and productiorr costs ductivity; for much of humanity water is has been analyzed in detail by an inter- becoming scarce.In some. situations disciplina ry tenni of scientists -who stud- farmers are overdrawing supplies merely ied land in southern Iowa. They 'con= to produce food aturrent levels. In the chided that a shift of cropland from a United States, for example, the irrigated slightly eroded to a severely eroded con- area actually declined some 3 percent dition would boost annual fertilizer ap- between 19'78 and 1982. This new trend plication requirements per acre by 40 is indicative of the growing difficulties in pounds of nitrogen, 3 pounds of phos- many other parts of the world in expand- phate, and 13 pounds of potash. ,This ing the irrigated area. While the irri- increase in fertilizer would be required gated area worldwide tikill continue to expand, it will not do scinearly as rapidly Tattle 2-9. World GrainA_rea and as in the past. Fertilizer Use Per Capita, 1950-84 Perhaps the most important force Grain Area "Fertilizer Use driving the cost of food prAuction up- Year Per Capita Per Capita ward is the shrinkage of cwopland per person. To mai er capita food pro- (hectares). (kilograms) duction as Aland shrinks, more pur- 1950 0.24 5.4 chased inputs must be used, including 1955 0.23 6.7 fertilizer,water, and pesticides. Tia 1960 0.21 8.9 trends can be measured most precisely 1965 0.20 11.9 for fertilizer. In 1950, when a quarter of,1970 it 0.18 17.1 a hectare was harvested per person, pet: 1975 0.18 20.4 capita fertilizer use was 5 kilograms. (See 1980 .0.16 25.6

Table 2-9.) In 1984, when this area had 1984 , 0.15 25.4 shrunk to 0.15 hectares, fertilizer use had increased to 25 kilograms per per- sonnet:: Worldwatch Institute estimates, based on data.(limn U.S. Department of Agriculture and son. Given the difficulties in expanding United Nations Food and Agriculture Organiza- the cropland area and the momentum of tion.

55 I

ReducingHunger (4 . merely to mint, output. They also land, water, and energyit will be diffi- booked at changes int- fuel require, cult to -reestablish a 3 percentrate of ments.for tillage as the topsoil washed growth M food production. The hope of away, forcing farmers to include more reducing hunger thus restsmore Heavily subsoil in the plow layer. I,trcreAsing tl than ever on population policies and decree of erosion from slight tosevere family planning programs. raise tillage fuel requirements by Consumers everywhere face higher rcent.43 it -food prices over the longterm. This the fertilizer required to satisfy politically sensitive economic indicault food needs continues to increase, the perhaps more than any other leadsto - worldisfaced with two rising cost consumer dissatisfaction and political curves. The first is associated with addi- unrest. Headlines describing food price tional expemlitures on fertilizer clueto protests and food riots are becoming the sl rinkage of cropland perperson. commonplace: Witness recent demon- And se ond, rising energy costsover the strations in Brazil, the Dominican Re- long j.m will increase the cost per unit public, Morocco, Poland, and l'unisia.44 of eheMicalfertilizerthenitrogen, Reductions in food subsidies imposed phosphate, and potashrequiredto on deficit-ridden Third World borrow- boost land productivity. ers by the international Monetary Fund For the world as a whole to reestablish as a condition for new loans have led to the upward trend in Per capita foodpro- the coining of a termIMF riots. Rising duction, either the growth of foodpro- demands on the earth's food-producing duction must accelerate or that ofpopu- resources as some 81 millionpeople are lation must slow. Given theresource added each year are beginning Co trans- constraints described in this chapter late into political tairest and instability.

56 twv 3

Managing\- Freshwater Supplies r Sandia Pastel

Like energy, water is an essential ingre- Aqueduct in the United States, have lit- dient in virtually every human endeavor. erally made deserts bloom. Yet increas- Its availabilityisvital to feeding the ing competition for a limiied supply and A worlds growing population, producing the rising. economic .and environmental the material goods thatraise living stan- 'costs of traditional water strategies de- dards, and preserving the integrity of mand a new approach to the manage.: natural systems upon which life itself de- ment of fresh water. Few governments pends. Yet in most nations remarkably have even recognized the need for such little is known with certainty about how a. reevaluation, much less begun to de- much water.is used where, when, and by sign the necessary policies for the future. whom. Although virtually every political Unfortunately, an abundance of time, as leader could quote the current price of a with an abundance of water, may very barrel of oil, few would know the cost of well prove illusory. securing an additional 1,000 cubic meters of water. Long taken for granted, fresh water may in many areas become a constraint on economic growth and food produc- THE WATER CYCLE AND 't'ion over the coming decades. In the past,riversand streams have been RENEWABLE SUPPLIES dammed and diverted td provide de- Numbers alone fail to tell water's true pendable water supplies to areas in story. Enough rain and snow falls over need. Engineering feats, such as the the contitnts each year to fill Lake Aswan Dam in Egypt and the California Huron 3times, to magnify the flow of This chapter appeared as Worldwatch Paper 62, the At . zon, Rivera sixteenfold, or to Myer: Rethinking Management to an Age of Scarcity. cover he earth's total land area to a 5 Managing Freshwater Supplies (43) depth. of 83 centimeters. Vet lackof deniably abundant: For each human in- water to grow crops periodically'threat- habitant there isnow an annual renew- ens millions with famine. Water tables in able supply of 8,300 cubicmeter, which southern India. northern China, the Val- is enough to filla six meter square room ley of Mexiyo, and the V.S.Southwest 38 times, and several times theamount are falling precipitously, causing wellsto needed to sustain a moderate standard go dry. Rivers that once ran year-round of living.2 now fade with the end of the rainysea- (Natural variations in climate andthe son. Inland lakes and seas are shrinking. vagaries of weather easilycast shadows Unlike coal, oil, wood, andmost other over this picture of plenty, however, for vital resources, water is usually needed water is not -always available when and in vastuquantities that are too unwieldy where it 6 most needed. Nearlytwo to he traded internationally. Rarely is it thirds of each year's runoff flows rapidly transported m6re than several hundred away in floods, often bringing kilometers from its more de- source. Thiis while struction than benefit. The other thirdis fresh water everywhere is linkedto a vast stable, and is thusa reliable source of globalfycle, its viability and adequacyas water for. drinking or irrigatingcrops a resarce is determined by theamount year-round. Water that infiltratesand available locally or regionally and by the flows underground providesthe base way it is used and managed. flow of Sivers andstreams and ace-owls' Each year, the sun's energy lilts some for most of the stable Apply. TheCon- 500,000 cubic kilometers ofwattr from trolled release of water from lakesand the earth's surface-86percent fi'om the reservoirs add*bit more, bringing the oceans an 414 percent from land. (one total stable soppily to about 11,000cubic cubic kilometer equalsone billion cubic kilometers, or 3,000 cubic meters per meters or one trillion liters; in standard persontile' -present practical limit of U.S. usage, the equivalent isAout264 the renewable freShwater supply. billion gallons.) An equalamount falls Asia and Africa are the back to earth as rain, sleet, corvients fac- or snow, but ing the greatest water stress"'Supplies fortunately not in thesame proportions. for each Asian todayare less than half Some 110,300 cubic kilometersfalls the global average, and the contra:it& over land (excluding Greenland and Ant- runoff is the least stable of all themajor arctica), whereas only 71,500 isevapor- land masses. (See Table 311.)Lofty ated from it. Thus, this solar-powered mountain ranges anda monsoon climate le annually ,distillsandtransfers make rainfall and runoff highlrvariable. 38-, 00 cubic kilometers ofwater from China's Huang He,or Yellow River, has theeans to the continents. To complete had at least one major change of the -mural cycle, the course water then makes every century of the 2,500 years ofre- its way back to. thesea as "runoff"t corded Chinese history. In India, 90per- By virtue of this cyclic flowbetween Cent of the precipitation fallsbetween the sea, air, and land, freshwater is a the months of June and September,and renewable resource. Linder the planet's most of the runoff flows in the Ganges existing climatic conditions, approxi- and Brahmaptdra basins in the North. mately the same volume is madeavail- Failure of the 1979monsoon led to One' able each year. Today's supply isthe of the worst droughts ofrecent record same as when civilizations first dawned and reduced India's production of in the fertile river valleys of the food- Ganges, grains by 16 percent. In Africa,the Zaire the Tigris-Euphrates, and theNile, River (formerly. the Congo)secondin. Viewed globally, fresh water is stillun- volume only to the Amazon--- 'accounts 4 56 (44) State of the world -1955 Table 3-1. Distribution of Renewable FreshwaterSupplies, By Continent

Average Share of ' Share of Shilre of Annual Global Global ,Runoff That Region Runoff Runoff Population Is Stable

(cubic (pert ent) kdometers)1 Africa 4,225 11 II 45 Asia 9.865 26 58 30 Europe 2,129 5 10 43 rth America' 5,960 15 8 40 South America 10,380 27 6 38 5 Oceania 1,965 1 25 Soviet Union 4,350 Il 6 30

World 38,874 100 100 361 'Includes Central America, with runoff of 545 cubit kilometers./Average. souticts Adapted from M.I. I:vomit. ll'orid Mao Re.soturriand Their Future, translation ed. Raymond L. Nave (Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union. 1979); populationfigures are mid-1983 estimates from Population Reference Bureau, 1983 World Poindation Data Sheet (Washington,D.C.: 1983). for about 30 percent of the continent's from the major population centers. Fi- encwable supplies but flowslargely nally, Europe joins ,Asia as a continent t trough sparsely populated rainforest. with a substantially greater share of the Two thirds of the African nations have at worlds people than of its fresh water. least a third less annual runoff than the The continent's In capita runoff is only global average. Drought conditions that half the global a4rage, and supplies are. persisterhly plague the continent's dry especially short in southern and eastern regions have in recent years threatened Europe. Fortunately, for much of the over 20 nations with faminc.3 continent a generally temperate climate North and South America and theSo- and a la* number of smaller rivers with viet Union all appear to have abundant fairly steady flows allow a comearatively water resources for their populations. large share of the runoff to be tapped. though again great geographic dispari- A detailed breakdown of supplies by ties exist. South America appears the country confirms water's unequal distri- . mostrichly endowed continent, yet 60 bution, (See Table 3-2.)Per capita percent of itS runoff flows in the channel runoff ranges from over 100,000 cubic of the Amazon, remote from most peo- meters in Canada to less than 1,000in ple and a hard soitrce to tap. North and Egypt Yet even these nationalfigurib, Central America together haze a per hide important disparities. On a pet capita water supply twice the global av- capitt basis, Canada is the most water- erage, but natural supplieS arelimited in wealthy nation in the world, but two bread areas of the west, particularly in thirds of itsriver flow is northward, the southwestern United States and while 80 percent of its people live within northern Mexico, The Soviet Union's 200 kilometers of the Canadian-U.S. three largest riversthe Yenisei, the border. Similarly, Indonesia appears to Lena, and the Ob'all flow north be a relatively water-rich nation, yet over through Siberia to the Arctic Seas, far 60 percent of the population live on the

59 ;#- ManagingFreshwater Supplies (.15 ) Table 3-2. Average Annual Per Capita Runoff in SelectedCountries, 1983, With Projections for 20001 Country 1983 200() Change (thousand cubic meters) (percent) Canada 110.0 95.1 Norway -14 91.7 91.7 0 Brazil 43.2 30.2 Venezuela -30 42.3 26.8 Sweden -37 23.4 21_3 + Australia 21.8 18.5 -- 15 Soviet Union 16.0 k4.1 -- t2 United States WA) 8.8 -12 Indonesia 9.7 7.6 Mexico -22 4.4 2.9 14 FEROCC . 1.3 4.1 Japan -- 5 3.3 3.1 Nigeria -6 3.1 1.8 China 42 2.8 2.3 India -18 2.1 1.6 -24 Kenya 2.0 1.0 -50 --g'oath Africa andSwaziland 1.9 1.2 Poland -37 1.5 1.4 **West Germany -7 1.4 ..1.4 0 Bangladesh 4 1.3 0.9 -31 Egypt 0.09 0.06 -33 World 8.3 (i.3 -24 %Estimates are for runoff originating withineach specific country and do from other commies. not include inflow SOURCES: M.I. ll'orid Water Resources rind Then haute.translation ed. Raymond I.. Nace (Washiiagton Anicrican Geophysical Union, 1979);population figures are mid-1985 estimates from Population Reference Bureau. 1.983fl'or/d Population Data Sheet. (Washiront).C.: 1983).

laws* . island of Java, which has lessthan 10 particular -colititry:) Inflowaccounts for percent of the country's runoff. Espe- roughly 70 percent of Czechoslovakia's cially for the water-poor nationsof watevupplies, for example, roughlyhalf Eu 9pe, Africa, and Asia, waterflowing of East and West Germany's, and90 per- neighboring countriescan be a cent of Bulgaria's. Egypt, one of themost ddition to the runoff originating neater -short nations in the world, is almost their own borders. (The runoff entirely dependenton the water of the iestimates in Table 3-2are consistent Nile that enters thecountry from Sudan.' with a global water balance and thus in- Given existing climatic conditionsand r. 'elude only runoff' originatingwithin each current population projections, the'per SS 60 1 "tiutlAVAlLAkE (46) Stateofthe World-1985 capita global water supply at the end of water use expanded at a moderate pace. the century will have declined by 21, per- (Throughout thischapter, ths terms cent, while the stable,reliablo,/compo- water use, withdrawal, and demand arc nen( of that water will have dropped used interchangeably; water consump- from 3,000 to 2,280 cubic meters per tion will be distinguished.) Over this person. Population continues to grow century, however, demands have soared_ fastest in some of the most water-short with rapid industrialization and the need regions. Per capita supplies in Kenya to feed an expanding world population. and Nigeria, for example, will diminish According to estimates prepared by So- by 50 and 42 percent, respectively. Sup- viet scientists in the early seventies for pliesper person in Bangladesh and theU.N.internationalHydrological Egypt will diminish by a third, and in Decade (1965-74), which are among the India by a fourth. Moreover, if projected mostcomprehensivehistoricaldata climatic shifts from the rising concentra- available, world water use in 1900 was tion of atmospheric carbon dioxide ma- 400 billion cubic meters, or 242 cubic terialize, water supplies may diminish in meters per person. By 1940 global usage some areas already chronically water- had doubled, while population 1,9,4,in-t short, including major grain- producing creased about 40 percent. (See Figure regions of north China and the United 3-1.) A rapid rise in 'water demand then States.5 began at mid-century: By 1970 annual per capita withdrawals had climbed to over 700 cubicmeters, 60 percent higher than in 1950. Both agricultural and industrial water use increased twice COMPETING USES as much during these 20 years as they had over the entire first half of the cen- When analysts speak of the "demand" tury.° for water, they typically refer to water's Today, humanity's ammal water with7 use as a commodityas a factor of pro- drawals equal about a tenth of the total ductioninagriculture,industry,or renewable supply and about a quarter of household activities.Yetwater in rivers; the stable supplythat which is typically lakes, streams, and estuaries alsois home to countleAs fish and plants, acts as -11' hot 13 a n cl Thousand a 'diluting and purifying solvent, and Cubic Cubit: offers a smoke of aesthetic enjoyment Kam 'piers Mcicrs and richnewThat adds immeasurably to * 2.0 the quality of life. No society can draw on Sound 'SSR Comm. Int all its available supplies and hope to Intl Hydrologi( net rule. maintain the brenefits water freely Airs Hinlittynkh when left undisturbed. Th6 need to pro- Ibtal (cu. kin.) tect these natural furictions is thus a criti-. cal backdrop toconsidering society's pattern ofwater use. Although the practice of irrigation Per Capita (cu: nt.) dates back several thousand years to early Egyptian and Babylonian societies, and although water has been tapped to 190 1950' 19110 1970 1 900 1990 supply homes and smell industries for sure 3-1. World Water Use, lbtal.*nd Per centuries, for most of humanity's history Capita, 1-940-80 ,Iltongitig Freshwater Suppltes ( 47) available throughout a year. Agriculture lion hectares each year; since 1979, an claims the lion's share of world water additional 5.2million hectares have use, accounting for about 70 percentof been added annually. (Set' Table 3-3.) At total withdrawals. As fertile land became today'S\ ilVerilge rates of water use (sgme more scarce, irrigation enabled farmers 11,000-12,000 cubic meters per irri- to get higher yields from existing fields, gated hectare per year), and agsruning issentiallv substituting water for new irrigationcontinues to expand ata cropland. With acontrollable,year- slightly diminishing rate, an additional round source of water, farmers also 820 cubic kilometers of, water will be found it profitable to invest in fertilizer needed for irrigation each year by the and to plant higher-yielding crop vatic- turn Of the centurya 25-30 percent in- " ties. Yields of raM-fed rice, for example, crease over existing 1evels.8 typically increase--by 50 percent if the Besides demanding a large share of effects of Hood and. drought can be any region's available supplies, irriga- eliminated, by 130 percent if controlled tion results in a large volume being irrigation and drainage and some fertili- '''consumed] removed from the local zer are introduced, and by280 percent water supply through evaporation and or more itadvanced irrigation tech- transpiration.CropsOtis(consume generous amounts of fertilizer, some water in order to grow, but, typi- pest control, and high-yielding seeds arc cally much more water is transported used.' and applied to fields than the crops Iv- Roughly a third of today's harvest quire. Often less than half the water comes from the 17 percent of the world's withdrawn' for irrigation returns to a cropland that.is irrigated. Irrigation thus nearby stream or aquifer, where it can be greatly helps meet the challenge of feed- used again. In the United States, for ex- ing an ever-growing population. Since ample, 55 percent of agricultural with- t950, the irrigated area worldwide has drawals are consumed, which in turn ac- increased from 94 million to 261 million counts for 81 percent of all the water hectares. During the sixties, irrigation consumed annually nationwide.9 water was brought to an additional 6.mil- Industry is the second major water-

"414c 9.9. Growth in Irrigated Are*, Ily Continent, 1950-82 Growth in Irrigated Area Total Irrtgi (pd Region Area, 2 1950-60 1960-70 1970-801 (ni 14trrtf hut-tares) (percent) Africa 12 25 80 33 Asia./ 177 52 32 34 Europe3 28 50 67 40 North America 3'1 .12 71 17 South America 8 67 20 33 Oceania 2 0 100 0 World 261 .19 41 32 'Percentage increase between 1979 and 1982 prorated to 1970-80 to maintain comparison by decade. 21nclodes the Asian IMO-11011 Of the Soviet Uttioh.'Includes the hoopean pOrtion of the Soviet Union. souRc:: W.R: Rangeley, "IrrigationCurrent Trends and aFuture l'erspective," World Bank Seminar, Vaisbington, February 1983.

p4 (48) Slate of the World-1985 using sector of society, accounting for Portugal, the Soviet Union. Turkey, and about a quarter of wateruse worldwide. several of the Eastern bloc nationsare Producing energy from nuclear and fos- projecting a doubling of their industrial sil-fueled power plants is by far the larg- withdrawals over the century's lastquar- est single industrial water use. Water is ter. Increases of no more than 50 per- the source of steam that drives thetur- cent arc expected in Czechoslovakia, bogenerators, and vast quantitiesare France, and East and West Cermavy." used to cool power plant condensers. Industry typically accounts for less Unlike in agriculture, however, onlya than 10 percent of total withdrawals in small fraction of this aver is consumed. most Third World countries, compared Most existing power plants have "once- with 60-80 percent in most industrial through"' cooling systems thatreturn nations. (See Table 3-4.) Much of the water to its source immediately after it developing world is just embarking9n passes through the plant. U.S. power the industrialization path taken by other plants, for example,consume only 2 per- countries four decadesago. Water decent of their withdrawals. Thus, espe- mands for power production, manufac- cially when plants are situatednext to turing, mining, and materials processing large lakes or rivers, the volume of cool- are thus poised for a rapid increase if ing water ,withdrawn is usually of less industriesadoptthewater-intensive concern than the discharge of heated technologies that those of the industrial water back to the source.If lake of world did. Industrialwater use in Latin stream temperatures get too high, oxy- America, fOr example, is projectedto gen levels may drop, threatening fish jump 350 percent dulling the century's and other aquatic life.") last quarter, cote ared with nearly 180 percent for municipal uses and 70 percent for irrigation. (See Figure 3-2.). Producingenergy from nuclear Among the targets set for the United Nia- and fossil-fueledpower plants is by Cubic far the largest single industrial Kiloinctcrs water use. 250

Source: t;. N. Econ. Comm. for Latin Am. Excluding energy production,two 200 thirds of the remAning industrial withdrawals go to just five industries: pri- Irrigation mary metals, chemical products, petro- 130 leumrefining, pulp andpaper manuFacturing, and food processing. In countries with an established industrial 100 base and water pollution laws in effect, wit hdrawalynir these industriesare not likely to increase. Most pollution control 50 Industry techniques involve recycling and reusing water, thus reducing an industry's demand for new supplies, industrialuse Municipal has declined, or is expectedto decline 1973 2000 soon, in countries such as Finland, Swe-. Figure 3-2. Water Demands inLatinAmerica, den, and the United States. In.contrast, 1976, WithProjections for 2000

3 ry 4

r ManagingFres.hwaier Supplies (19) -Table 3-4. Estimated Water Use in Selected countries, Total, Per Capita, and. by Sector, 1980

Daily Water Withdrawals Share Withdrawn by Major Sectors Country Total Per Capita Agriculture Industrial Municipall (billion (thousand liters) liters) (percent) United States 1,683 7.2 34 57 9 Canada 120 4.8 7 84 9 Soviet Union 907 3.6 64 30 6 Japan' 306 2.6 29 61 10 Mexico' 149 2.0 88 7 5

India' 1.058 1.5 92 2 's 6

United Kingdom 78 1.4 1 85 14 Poland 46 1.3 21 62 17 China 1,260 1.2 87 7 6 Indonesia' 115 0,7 ..- 86 3 11 'Along with residential use, figures may include commercial and public uses, such 43 watering parks and off course's.'1975 figures for Mexico: 1977 for India, Indonesia. and Japan. SOURCES: U.S. data. U.S. Geological Survey; Canadian data. Harold D. Foster and Derick Sewell, Water The Entatnng Crops in Canada (Toronto: James Lorimer & Company, 1981)4eiyiet. U.K., Polish data, U.N. Ecommlic Commission for Europe; Japanese, Indian. Indonesian data, (;/uteri( 2000 Repoli; Mexican data, U.N. Economic Commission op Latin America: Chinese data. Vaclav Smil, The had Earth.

tions Second Development Decade is an tries, where water is supplied through 8 percent average annual rate of indus- public hydrant, daily usage ranges be- trialgrowthforthe Third World. twit 20 and 70 liters per person. Areas Though this may prove too ambitious a suci as Kenya, where women may walk goal, given the debt burden many of several kilometers to draw water for. these countries face,the developing their families, can record usages close to world's industrial water use could easily. the biological minimum-2-5 liters per double by the end of the century." person day." Water used by householdsfor drink- Residential and other municipal uses ing and cooking,bathing,washing of water account for less than a tenth of clothes,andotheractivities varies water withdrawals in many nations, and greatly with both %come levels and the only about 7 percent of total withdrawals way in which water is_s_uppliedialarban . worldwideJnittdustrial-countries where 'households with piped water mailable at population growth is slow and most the touch of a tap, daily use typically houSeholds are already adequately sup- ranges between 100 and 350 liters per plied with water, growth in domestic de- person. Households with water-inten- mand is slowing and probably will con- sive appliances, such as dishwashers and tinue to do so. In Parts of Europe that washing machines, and those where arestill converting from community water is used to irrigate large lawns and wells to individual piped-Water systems gardens can use over 1,000 liters pep includingCzechoslovakia;Poland, person daily. In patty develbping coun- Portugal, Romania, and Turkeyde-

64 (50) Stale ofthe 11'orldI985

mand for drinking water is expectedto ably and to adapt to the limits ofa fixed double over the next two decades. The supply. Mounting pressuresare cur- largest increase will probablyoccur in rently .m.iailest in pervasive pollution, the 'Third World, where fre%watersup- tion-of groundwater supplies, fall- -plies are not yet universally available. ing Water tables, and damage to ecologi- The World Health Organizationest cal systems. Failure to heed these signs mates that as of 1980 only 75 percen of stress, and to place wateruse on a the developing world's urban dwers sustainable footing, threaten the viabil- and 29 percent of its ruralpoi dation ityof both the resource base itself were served with "drinking water. The and the economic systems that depend United Nations has-set a goal of provid- on it. ing safe water to all by 1990, which, al- Eachliterof polluted waterdis- though unlikelyto be met,"will contrib- charged untreated contaminatesmany ute to a probable doubling of Third additional liters of fresh water in there- World domestic water demands by the ceiving stream. The disposal of synthetic end of the century." chemicals and heavy metals, whichpose Even given these large increases in dangers in extremely lowconcentra- water withdrawals for irrigation, indus- tions, is an especially grave threatto the .quo" trial,and _domestic needs,totaluse quality of Water supplies. Without Ate; worldwide by the year 2000 is still likely quate treatment, the growing volume to be less than .half the stable renewable and toxicity of wastes could renderas supply. Yet projections by leading hy- much as a fourth of the world's reliable drologists show that meeting demands supply unsafe for use by theyear 2000)6 in-North Africa and the Middle East will Many industrial commiesnow require require visually all the usable freshwa- that wastewaters meet specifiedstan- ter supplies in these regions. Usage in dards of quality before theyare dis- southern and eastern Europe,as well as (charged. Yet in most Third Worldcoun- central and southern Asia, will also be tries,pollutioncontrolsareeither uncomfortably close to the volume of nonexistent or unable to keeppace with supplies these regions can safely and urbanization and industrialization.In reliably tap.'"' Moreover, even if supplies China, for example, only about 2 pd.. appear more than adequate, no region i,sAdl,cent of the 28 billion cubic meters bf immune from the consequences ofr vastewaterdischargedeachyearis management and abuse that arc Are, -eated. Already, a third off` the water in arising and that are bound toworsen , s major rivers is polluted beyond safe competing demands escalate. health levels, and fish and shrimp have disaPpeared from 5 percent. China's firstlarge. wastewater treatment plant began operating in Beijing in the fall of 1980, but the volume ofsewage far out- paces the facility's capacity to treatit. THE CONSEQUENCESOF Wastewater flows in Beijing have in- MISMANAGEMENT creased twenty-sevenfbld over the last three decades, and volumes for the When a resource begins to show physical country as a whole are projected to triple signs of abuse, economic a id ecological..or quadruple by the end of the century. consequences are usually n( d. Vaclav Smil, a specialiston China's envi- Water's seeming ubiquity has blindec ronment, writes that the country's water society to the need to manage it sustain- pollution problem "will requirevery r's 6'5 S

Managtv Frtshwater.Supplits (51) heavy and sustained investmentnotto thousands of years, old and receive little achieve zero discharges but merelyto annual replenishment from rainfall. Like bring the appalling situation withinrea- oilreserves, water in these "fossil aqui- sonable limits after decades Ofno con- fers"isessentially nonrenewable;if trol...7 tapped, it will in time be depleted. Even In virtually all of .Latin America,mu- where recharge doesoccur, groundwa- nicipal sewage and industrial effluents ter is often pumped at rates that .exceed are discharged into (lac nearest rivers replenishment, causingwater tables and streams withouttreatment. 'The to fall and depleting future water re- pulp and palsy and the iron and steel serves. Such overpumpingwhich industriest.A of the region's biggest geologistscall water "mining"--sup- pollutershave been growing twiceas ports only a fragile and short-termpros- fast as the economyas a whole. Yet perity at best, for eventually thewater cleanup efforts have typically beenpost- becomes too salty to use, too expensive poned becauskof their highcost. PurifV, to pithy to the surface, or 11.111s out alto- ingColombia's Bogota River, forexam- gether._ pleoneofthecontinent'smost contaminated waterwayswouldcost an estimated $1.4 billion,-a high price for a debt-ridden country to pay. Unless gov- After several decades of steady ernments begin attacking urban and in- growth, the total irrigatedarea in dustrial pollution soon, however, they the High Plains is now declining. will inevitably face theprospect of a water supply too polluted for theirpeo- ple1to drink.is One fifth of the irrigated cropland in A similar situation exists in-the Soviet the United States is supported bywater Union. Industrialwastewaters comprise mined from a vast'undergron0reserve 10 eiercent of the Volga River'saverage called the Ogallala aquifer. Stretching flow at Volgograd, and tlyec fourths of from southern South Dakotato north- the wastes are untreated. A major ellort west Toxas, She aquifer underliespor- was begun inthemid-seventiekto tions of eight states andspans an area cleanse the river, but apparentlyen- roughly three timesas big as the state of forcement has bi-en too slack toencour- New York, Natural recharge is Minimal age industries to install the costly tech- in this semiarid region, and farmers have nologies. Tinder these conditions, the profitably irrigatedcope, sorghum, nd Volga simply carOnot sustain the existing cotton only by drawing on water sto high level of withdrawals And alsore- for thousands of years. Irrigation with main of acceptable quality. Aycordingto Ogallala water began to expand rapidly Thane Gustafson,. a U.S. 'specialiston inTexAs' in the fbrties, and whenpower- Soviet affairs: "Footdragging by industry ful pent)* and irrigationsystems were on pollution control will make it neces- introduceditspread northward into sary to use more water for dilution. All Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska during these effects acid up ta greater demand subsequent &elides. By 1978,over eight for water by the end of hecentury \thaw million hectares were under irrigation in the available suppliescan satisfy."i.9 the stilles most heavily dependenton the Vast quantities of the earth's waterw Ogallala, compared with just 2.1 million move slowly underground through the in 1944. (See Figure 3-3.) Over thelast pores and fractures of geologic forma- four decades, 500 cubic kilometers of tions called aquifers. Some holdwater groundwater have been withdrawn. 1-1;-

CC (52) 5 State of the 11.01 / 98 5 drologists estimate that the aquifer is are concerned about the potential col- nowhalt depleted under 900,00Q het:- lapse of a lucrative regional farming tares' of Kansas, New Mexico, and economy. The U.S. Army Corps of Engi- Texas." neers has even looked at the feasibility of Faced With rising pumping costs, di- massive river diversions to supply water minishing well yields, and low commod- to farmers now dependent on the dimin- ity prices, tanners are taking land'out of ishing Ogallala:Rut few have asked the irrigation.Afterseveraldecadesor more fundamental question of whether steady growth, the total irrigated area in it makes sense to deplete this resource at 7 the High Plains is now declining. In just a time when the nation can afford to pre- four years, 1978 to 1982, irrigated land serve it. The U.S. Government is paving in Texas dropped by 20 percent, in farmers toidlerain-fed croplandin Oklahoma by 18 percent, and in New order to lessen a price-depressing sur- Mexico by 9 percent. Collectively, in plus of crops; at the same time, ii is al- these and the other three states that lowing the wholesale exhaustion of .t draw mostheavily On the Ogallala unique water reserve to grow those same (Colorado, Kansas, and. Nebraska), the cropsMoreover, among the conse- total area under irrigation declined by quences predicted for nuch of the cen- 592,000- hectares, or 7 percent. In Ne- tral and western United States from the braska, where a smaller portion of the rising level of atmospheric carbon diox- Ogallala hAs been depleted, irrigation is ide is a reduction in the renewable water still expanding. Yet in 1982, net returns supply and an increase in the frequency from Northern Plains production of corn and severity of droughts.22 By exploiting the dominant irrigated crop in Ne- the Ogallala today, farmers are foreclos- braskawere less than half the national ing Options to draw on it in the future average, and it appears that eventually when it may really be needed to meet fariners there will begin switching crops, vitalfoodneeds. domesticallyand converting to dryland farming, or leav- Aload. Failure to preserve a* resource ing agriculture altogethPr. is Shortsighted, and an error future gen- Economists and government leaders erations will rightfully find hard to for- give. Million Many other U.S. aquifers :Ire skittering Irctio-c3 from overuse, Among the severest cases 1) is one underlying Tucson, Arizonathe largest American city completely depen- Source.(' 1)ept al ..tgr u Whirr dent on groundwater, Only about 35 percent of the water withdrawn to supsty Tucson's residents, farms, and copOr mines is replaced each year by recharge; and water tables in some areas have fallen over 50 meters. The Santa Cruz River is no longer sufficiently fed by underground water to keep it flowing dur- (Colorado, Nantas, NtbrasAa. ing dry spells. Water levels have also ,Veu. Ale U(0.OA Inhorna, dropped precipitously aroundEl Paso in Texas and CiodaJuarez in Mexico from

1944 11.150 1 )(i0 1970 1900 1990 the mining of the aquifer they share. In Figure 3-3. Irrigated Area in Six States Thilt portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth (net- Rely Heavily on the Ogallala Aquifer, 944-82 ropolitan area, water tables have (Alen Managing Freshwater Supplies (53) morn-than 120 meters over the last 25 ,lowering of the water table appears to be years.", increasingly .common worldwide. (See Though rarely as well-documented as Tattle 344 Over the seventies,, water- cases in the United States, excessive levels dropt4d 25-30 ineters in areas of groundwater pumping ansubsequent Tamil Nadu in southern India, a come-

Table 3-5. Selec d Cases of Excessive'SecWithdrawals Status Colorado River Basin, Yearly consumption exceeds renewable supply by 5 United gates percent, creating a water deficit; Colorado River is iiicreasing-ly salty; water tables have fallen prelitonsly in areas. of Phoenix and Tucson.

High Plains, United StatesThe Ogallala, a fossil aquifer that supplies most of the region's irrigation water, is. diminishing; over a .large area of the southern plains, the aquifer is already half depleted.

Northern China (A-Dun water overdrafts are epidemic in northern -provinces; annual pumping in Beiling exceeds thx "sustainable supply by 2.5 percent: water tables. M some areasere dropping up to 1--4 meters per year.

'ramil Nadu, India Heavy pumping for irrigation has caused drops in wetterter level of 25-30 meters in a decade.

Israel, Arabian Gulf, and IntrUsion of sea water from heavy pumping of coastal coastal United States aquifers threatens to contaminate drinking water "lupplies with salt.

Mexico..City; Beijing, China; Groundwater pumping has -caused compaction of aquifers as Central Valley, talifornia: and subsidence.of lanctsurface, damaging buildings, Houston-Galveston, Texas streets, pipet, and wells; hundreds of homes in a waterfront Texas community have been flooded.

California, United States 'Water frortMwens Valley and Mono Basin have been diverted ,to supply southern water users; Owens Lake ;...;,,r-has dried up, and Mono Lake's surface area has shrunk by a third.

Southwestern Soviet Union Urge river withdrawals havereduced inflow to the Caspian and Aral seas; the Caspian sturgeon fishery is threatened; the Aral's fisheries are virtually gone and the sea's volume may be halved by the turn of the century. S souact: Worldwatch Institute, band on various sowers.

rr (54) 'State of the World-1985 quence of uncontOled pumpinforir- Excessive demands also.ta4a toll on rig-ation. Ovum!) liping is epidemic in lakes, estm -ies, and inland s6s thatare China's northern:Own-ices, chere'some sustained y freshwater inflow from 10 major cities rely heavilyon ground- nearby rive' and streams. The Aral Sea water for theit baSic supply. In Beijing, in the southeSoviet Union is shrink- annual grouniboter withdrawals exceed ing because a large withdrawals from its the sustainable:64ply by 25 percent, two major 0-ibutaries, the Amu Darya,) and water tat*. s in sonic parts of die city and Syr Darya. These two rivers help, have been dipjiping over Ime. ter each support Soviet central Asians lucrative year. In one 1,i,strict of Tianjin, a 'major agricultural economy, which includes manufacturing' .' and commerciialcity, roughly half the nation's.irrigatedcrop-.. water tables-are -falling an astonishing land. The population of several central 4.4 meteri.arinually. 2 4 Asian republics has grownsby 3tpercent Large withdrawals' of groundwater 'over the last decade, addingto 'tressures 'nay have of costly effects besides the on the available water supply and to the depletion Of: ftiture supplieS. Ifwator importance of maintaininga thriving pumped One,an.aquder susceptibleto economy to-secure more jobs in thc re- compactidii is riot replaced by recharge gion. The ,Aral's level had remained the aqiiifOlyiay compress, resulting. Tairl),stable between 1900 and 1960, but subsideiix7e oftbe,overlying land. Subsi- has Since dropped 9 meters. Fisheries dence :in Mexico City hase damaged that once figured prominently in theye- buildirtgl,and streets and disrtipted the gional economy have virtually disap- +, sewage 0,fstern:in Ghina, portions of peared. Although officialsare taking Beijing, have been_sinking 20-:30 centi- some measures to save portions of the meters annually since 1950, and rates of Aral, they appear resigned to it shrinking 10 centiMeters.per year havebeen mea- further. ,Some scientists have projected sured inTlainin. In the flouston-t;aives7 that befOre the end attic...century thesea ton area of Tekas,,.wfiere water loyels may drcip another -8-10 meters and its have declined 60 mt,tiers during the last volun*- May .be reduced by half.27 half-century, portions of the land madace A similar scenario threatensto unfold have sunk over 2 meters: High tides in further west, in the Caspian Sea. The the Gulf have flooded residential-devel- Volga River is the Caspian's mainsource opments -that, bectinse of subsidence, of inflow, helping to replenish the large are now closer tO'sea level:26, quantities of water evaporate from the In coastal areas, heavy pumpilngmay sea each year. C ict huge alter the volume and flow of groundwa- dams on the rivduring the fifties and. ter discharging to the ocean and thereby. subsequent large irrigation withdrawals allow 'Sea ',ater to invade the aquifer. dramatically reduced the river's dis- Salt-water inthision . threatens tocon - chargeintotheCaspian. The sea taminate the drinking,. water -supplies of reached its totoyst level in centuries in many cities and towris;Along the U.S. At,, 1977, having ed more than 3 me- lantic and Gulf coasts; it is especially 'Sc.-' t6rs over the eding half-centnry. vere.inseveraII i FloridacitiesWhere'. The level has risen somew. Watin recent pumping hasidled the water . table .yearsbecause of unusually heavy rains' below sea level. Israel, Syria, and (li increased the Volga's flow. But So- Arabian 'Gulf states are also .battling viet soent'ists do not expect this fortui- threats of silt- wetter intrusion' Onee it tous occurrence to continue, According occurs, such contamination is difficult, if to U.S, geographer Philip Micklin, who not impossible; to reverse.26 discussed the situation with scientists

69 4it

, 1

Managing Freshwater- Suppies (55 ) during a five-month stay in the %pier*/condition Tholph more accurate, such Union in 1984, additional div'ersions for methods arime-consuming and costly, irrigation arc Olanned for the Volga, and requiring much field data and scientific the Caspilin's level is expectedto drop expertise, JO interpteLthern.29 Apaper further o4er the next decade. Thesea issued in 1984 by the Canadian Inquiry supports bountifid fisheries, including on -Federal Water Policy acknowledges 90 percent of the world's catch ofstur- that "in Canada, we arc only beginning geon. Salmon and migratory herring . toappreciate the onagnitude ofwater spawn in the Volga and feed in the North needs for the support of theecosystem. Caspian. Substantial damage to these We do riot have very reliable estimates of fisheries is. likelyto occur if the sea's instream requirements.-" level decline' such further.2! Shrinking hand seas are a dramatic consequence of heavy; water withdrawals to Meet. irrigation And .otherwater de- Farmers in the Indian. state of Mad- mands. But an equallygrave threat is the hya Pradesh now refv to their once quiet loss Q f fish and other aquatic life fertile fields as "wet deserts.:' from river] mist streams whose altered flow patterns can no longer sustain them. As long as water withdrawalsre- Among he least afiqrdableconse- main well below a .region'saverage.sgs- quences of irrational water use is the tainablesupply, streamflows willlie degradation of valuable cropland Gym sullitient to safeguard Most ecological poorirrigationpractices.Irrigation fr values. Yet-where a large share of surface'wateristypically broughtto crops water is diverted from its natural chan- through unlined canals and ditches that nels, these benefits may be lost. allow vast quantities of waterto seep Over the last decade, many nations down to the water table. Where drainage have begun to realize this danger, but is inadequate, the water leVel gradually they are not prepared to avert it. Setting rises, eventually entering the crops'root minimum flow levels to protect wildlife zone and waterlogging the soil. In the requires large quatitities of data and the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, forex- expertise of hydrologists, fishery biolo- ample, a large irrigation project thiit gists, and aquatic ecologists. The quick- originally was expectedto increase crop and inexpensive methodologiesare sink- productiontenfoldled. to extensive 'ply not accurate enough to be reliable. A waterlogging and, ,consequently,a re- commop one, lot;.,example lets mini-. duttion in cortrand whytt yields. Farm- mum flow ill'quirenients as a fixed per- ers there now refer to their oncelertile centage (such as 14 percent) of the aver- fields as "wet deserts."st age annual' flow. But this makes no In dry climates, waterloggingmay be allowance for the large flow variability accompanied by salinizationas water that typifies many river basins,nor for near the sinface evaporates and leaves the long-term, cumulative effectson fish behind a damaging residue of salt. Ac- of low flows for extended periods of . cording to some estimateS, waterlogging time. More sophisticated methodsusu- end salinization are sterilizingsome 1 ally involve'a computer model thatquan- million to 1:5 million hectares of fertile tifies, for each particular lipecies', the sail annually:The- problem is especially amount of habitat available in a given severe in India and Pakistan (where an stretch of the stream at each stage of its estimated 12 million hectares have been life cycle and under varying streamflow degraded), the Valley of Mexico, the a

( 56 ) State of the1VorId-1 985 Helmire Val n Afghanistan, the Ti- row valleysiteswere graduallyex- grisanai basins in Syria and ploited,any newcapacityrequired- Iraq, the Sa Icy in Califor- broader, earth-filled darns. By the six nia, the North I.in of China, and Soviet tics, 36 times more darn material was central Asia." It these areas, waterlog- needed to create a given reservoir capac- ging and/or satin anon threaten to di- ity tlian in the twenties. With a corre- minish the very gains in food production spondingescalationin'construction that costly new irrigation projects are in- costs, reservoir devlopment markedly tended to yield. declined." In most of Europe, a favorable climate and geography for securing water supplies has lessened the need to build large storage reservoirs, compared with, for AUGMENTING DEPENIC)ABLE example, the western United States. Yet to meet rising deMands, many European SUPPLIES v. nations plan large increases in reservoir capacity over- the next decade. (Sec When natural water supplies become Table 3-6.) A 1981 report prepared by inadequate to meet a region's demands, the1.1.N. Economic Commission tor water planners and engineers histori- Europe (ECE) raises doubts, however, cally have responded by building dams about the ambitiods plans of several to capture and suite runoff that would countries materializing. Both high costs otherwise flow through the water cycle -and growing opposition to the flooding "unused'' and by diverting riversto of farmlands and valleys are becoming redistribute water from areas of lesser-to major barriers to darn comtuction. Not - greater need. As the demand lOr water withstanding government forecasts that has increased,. so have the number and "optimistically predict" a doubling or scale. of these engineering endeavors to tripling itt reservoir capacity, the ECF. augment availablesupplies. Tens of assessment concludes that some coun- thousands of dams now span the world's tries have already reached the practical rivers. Collectively, their reservoirs store limits of their reservoir development.55 roughly 2,000 cubic kilometers of run- Lagging the industrial world's big off, increasing by 17 percent the 12,000 darn era by two decades, dam construc- cubickilometersof naturallystable tion in the develMiing world is now in its runoff derived from groundwater and heyday. Two thirds of tIdams over 150. lakes! Most of this capacity has been meters high slated for completion this added since mid-century, when the pace decade arc in the Third World." De- of large dam constructionabruptly signed mainly for generating hydroelec- quickened. All but 7 of the MO largest tric power and supplying water lOr irri- dams in the world were completed after gation, large dams and reservoirs offer, World War II." promises of greater energy indepen- Many industrialcountries are ticAv dence and food self:sufficiency. Their finding, however, that the list of possible lure is miderstandaBle as large-scale so- darn sitv is growing shorter and that the lutions to a set of large development cost of adding new storage facilities is dilemillas.Unfortunately, high costs, rising rapidly', In the United States, for poor planning, and environmental dis- example, reservoir capacity grew on av-. ruption are !calving a legacy of failed ex- erage 80 percent per decade between pectations- that suggest they areinot the the twenties and the sixties. As the nar.-. panacea once envisioned. Managing Freshw aler Supplies (S7) 4101 Table 3-6. Reservoir Capacity in Selacted corrective efforts the irrigation canals Countries, 1970, With Projections for would not (Unction as planned. Studies 1990 had warned that unless deforested hillsides wEte replanted, runoff would wash Proiec fed largeamounts ofsoildownstream, I. Increase in threatening a buildup of silt in reservoirs Tot+ Capacuv, and irrigation canals and a layering of Country (Iapacity 1970-90 soil fertility. Yet reforestation did not (cubit (pert ent) begin until mote than a decade after ini- kilometer) tiation of the project, and by the end of Belgium 0.1 79 1982 replanting had taken place on less Bulgaria 2.7 296 than 1 percent of the area targeted for it. Canada 518 0 Writer John Madeley notes, "The homes Czechoslovakia 3.3 76 of 45,000 people are being flooded by Last Germany 0.9 156 the Victoria Dam, and, when they move France 2.0 into) the new resettlement,zone, their Greece 8.7 78 hopes of making a new living will not have been helped by the lack of attention to Poland 26.0 127 replanting." Portugal 5.3 119 The experience Sri Lanka has had with Romania 2.6 7.16 the Mahaweli project is by no means Sweden 27A unique. Though undertaken wih good Soviet Union 830.0 :60 intentions of raising 4Ood production United kingdom 1.5 and hying standards, large dam schemes United States 670.0 / 15,. are often so costly and complex that West Germany other critical tasksoften .esseritiali to the project's successare neglected. As SOVIRCE: United Nations FA Onot111( on described earlier, vast areas of valuable for Europe. Long -Tmn Peripeovet fin Watt/. (*wand Supply in the ECE Region (New York: Untted Na- cropland are becoming waterlogged and tions, 1981). salt-laden because of excessive seepage from reservoirs and canals and /poor Sri Lanka's Mahaweli Development drainage from fields. Deforestation and Programme elitompasses construction overgrazing are disrupting water's flow Of four large clams across the Mahaweli through the landscape. Natural forests Riser to help achieve goals of tripling and grasslands absorb runoff and allow the nation's electric generating capacity it to move slowly through the subsurface. As hillsides are denuded, rainfall ana irrigating an additional 130,000 hect- and soil run rapidly off in floods, filling ares of cropland. Yet with only two dams expensive reservoirs with silt and caus- completed, the project has already been ing dry-weather streamHows to disap- plagued with problems. Capital costs pear. nearlydoubledinjustfouryears, Especially in the Third World, imag- severely :strainingthegovernment's ing. watersheds co stabilize runoff is criti- financeS. Inspections by agencies d( rim- cal to reversing a vicious cycle of flooding to the projectincluding, the-Age cy ing, sold loss, declining crop production, for International Development and he and pdrennial drought. In Malaysia, con- World Rank uncovered serious deli version of natural forest to rubb r and and construction problems that in 1982 palm oil plantations has double ak led to the conclusion that without Major runoff and cut dry-season flows8in ha (y8) Slate0/the World-1985 Deforestation on (110 small island of, ing benefits to those they ore intended to Dominica has contributed to a 50 per- serve.3" centreduction' indry-weatherflows As with.dams and reservoirs, projects there.38 Though virtually impossible to to divert water fronrtnie river basin to quantify, it' May well be that deforesta- another have grown in number and scale tionnow estimated at 11.3 million hect- in response to rising demand. Proposals ares per yearis dinitnishing the Third to import water from sonicdistant World's stable runoff by *much as ex- source have been made for virtually pensive new dams and reservoirs are every major region facing a shortage. augmenting it. Unless- the threats posed Most were developed during an era of by deforestation, waterlogging, and soil cheap energy, relatively cheap capital, salinization arc. countered, large dam and when environmental valueS rarely schemes may end tip wasting capital entered the debate over project costs degrading land while bringing few last- and benefits. The collective history of Table 3-7.ftrrent StatusofSelected Mikjor River Diversion Projects , Maimed Estimated Annual Capital Project' Distance Volume Cost Current Status (kilometers) (cubic kilometers) dollars) 'Chan 1,tang RiverNorth 1.,150 15.0 5.21 Decision in 1983 to (lain'lain, Chma begin construction

Northern European 3.500 20.0 3:1 Cons -action to begin RiversCaspian Sea 198 Basin, Soviet Union

Siberian RiversCentral 2,5(X0 25.0 41.0 Preparing engineering Asia, Soviet Union a designs; de'cision pending

Central Arizo4Projt-tt, 536 1.5 3.5 Deliveries to Phoenix to United States begin Dec, 1985; to Tucson, 1991.

California State Water 715 5.2 3.82 Operating at 60 percent Project, United States of planned capacity

Midwest RivasHigh : 600,1,600 2.0 -7.4 5.5-95.0 No action Plains, United States' IA published estimate considered low by prbject analysts; cost could easily double.21ncludcs only casts incurred anti projected through 1995; State has yet to develop new proposals (and cost estimates) to significantly increase the project's capacity over existing levels.2Five4lif erent diversions were studied.' Lower figure of each range is for diversion of Missouri River into western IC,sas, tligh,least costly alternative; higher figure is for diversion of several south-central rivers into OkIlihoa and Texas panhandles, the most costly alternative. souttec Worldwatch 1Q.stitute, based on various sources. a

Managing Freshwater Supplie, ( 59 ) these large diversion schemes is marked gatiou- on 4.3 million hectares; there- br long study tunes, periodic abandon- mainder would enhance Tianjin's111l1- ment, multibillion- dollar cost estimates. "kiPA and industrial water supply...so and growing con«iiover their ccologi- With an estimated pricetag of $5.2 /Thcal effects. (See Table 3-7.),Some of billion, which annalists 'say could these prow( ts will pi obably easily never leave double, Chinese officialsare under- the drawing boards. Those that do, and standably proceeding calitiouslv.Bum e that are actualb completed,WAN be Stone, epic of a ts'am (1'expel ts studying inure a Product of 1)01" alxlu'iliiu Chinese diversion prop mils,makes than an objective analysts ofAt-natty(' .1 «MVIIIIg case that die ays to triiicY(' litertransfer a give" cnil may be a unnecessarily costly and risky way to I aise grain production from the North China Plain. Ilcnotes that most.of Managing watersheds to stabilize the irrigated croplandnear Tianjin now runoff is critical to reversinga vi- Yields only 1.8 tonstel hectare, while a c,ious cycle of flooding, soilloss, de- smaller portion yields 2.3toils. The pro- clining crop production, andpe- duction inc eras(' gained by expandingir- rennial drought. rigation to I average-yielding hectare could therefore be obtained equallyby upgrading 3 or4 hectares already under irrigation to produce the higheryields. In China, officials and scientists began Moreover, without better in the early fifties to study the possibility management and drainage of irrigated lands,the di- of diverting water from theChang,fiang verted water niavworsen the salinizat ion (Yangtze) River Basin in central Chinato of North Plains' farmland. Salinizationis the water-poor regurns of the north. already reducing yieldson 2.7 million After years of Iving d irmant, the project hectares, and another 4.7 millionate was given a boost-in 1.ebruary 1983 when threatened.' t the government approved the first stage Officials in the Soviet 11Mon havein of work 'on what is knownas the East recent years revived century-old ideas of Route. This mainly involves reconstruct- diverting north-flowing-riverstothe ing the old Grand Canal, whichwill offer more populous southern European and navigation benefits regardless of central Asian regions. One projectaims whe other phases of the projectare to transfer water forn northern Euro- co . "'be long -term plans call tin pean lakes and rivers to the Volga drain- I) .ater'660 kilileters north.to age basin, the primary pull-pose being to th sang Ile, the Yellow River, from stabilize the level Of the Caspian which it would flow Sea. an additional 90 Even more ambitious is the proposeddi- kilometers by gravity into the vicinity .. of version of Siberian rivers southto the Tianjin. Chinese water planners esti- central Asian republic's, where%Yam. mate that the diversion will requireSO'- deficits of 100 cubic kilometersare pro- eral dozen pumping stations withii total jected by the turn of thecentury. The installed capacity of about 1.000mega- region's burgeoning population and in- wattsequal to one very large nuclear tensifying political clout have increased or coal plant. I'he system would transfer pressure to find some solution topits about 1-5 cubit kilometers ofwater in an pending water shortage anti unemploy- averinke rear, and up to double that vol- ment problons. Thane Custafion ob- ume in a dry year. Most of thewater served in 1980 that apparently "the lati- would be used to expand or improve irri- tude enjoyed by technical specialiststo (6o) Stole o/ the Worid-1985 criticize or oppose the diversion projects high costs. Long before the first drops of has become hostage to the projects' po- Central Arizona Project water were des-

. Jiticalpriority.''The greatest single ob- tined fOr Phoenix and Tucson, for exam -tacle to proceeding With the diversions,. ple, economist Thomas Power of the c noted, was "the tightness ofinvest- University of Montana stated that not Ment capital, which makes a 11.111-sile only was the projects benefit-cost ratio commitment by the leadership unlikely less than one, "it may well only return a in the near term.'" few cents of each dollar invested in it.'" In January1984, .nevei theless, the Public opposition is adding another USSR Council of Ministers called hit a Iaage hurdle to water project construc- detailed engineering design tot the en- tion in the thiited States--in some cases, tire 2,500kilometer I mite horn the Ob' perhaps an insurmountable one. The River to the Amu Darya. Construe tion California State Water Project. (SWP) is 1 «add begin by 1988 if the designs ate a case in point,One of the most complex accepted, and water that now (trains into water schemes ever designed, SW P is the Arctic may be heading tti the cotton% now operatingat 60 percent of its lands.and industries of central Asia by planned annual capacity: Capital costs to the end of the century. Cost estimates date total about $3.-1 billion. and the for the initial transfer capa( itv of 25 need to lift much of the water 590 meters cubic kilometers are $18 billion for the over the Tehachapi Mountains guaran- main diversion canal and $23 billion for tees high energy bills: Pumping costs m the facilities to distribute the water once 1983 totaled over $100 million.46 itreaches its destination. Meanwhile. .11w4.) successive state administrations some Sovietscientistsstillmaintain inCaliforniahave failed to win sufficient there isconsiderable potential 'toin- support for additional SWP facilities that crease the efficiency of water use in the would allow more northern water be destination region. According to (me es- transferred to Los Angeles and the a timate, conservation in agricultur and cultural valleys in the south. "the voters industry could save up to half the initial rejected one proposal called the Periph- volume of the proposed transfer. More- eral Canal, in a 1982 referendum. This over, as with China's project, the di- defeatreflectedconcern . aboutthe verted water (-mild spread the already canal's ecological effects around the Sac- severe salinization of irrigated land." ramentoSan Joaquin Delta and, more In the Ijnited States. no new federal fundamentally.aboutthemeritsof water projects have been authorized costlywater exports versus stronger since 197(1, though since the turn of the conservation efiorts by southern water century authorization bills have been in- users: Another proposal, known as the troduced into the U.S. Congress about "through-delta" plan. died in the Cali- every two years, More importantly, ac- tOrnia assembly in August 1984 when it tual fUnding for water project construc- appeared to proponents that another tion (excludiQg wastewater treatment) public referendum could not be avoided, has declined steadily over the past eight Approval (daily plan within the next few years;appropriationsin 1984were years that would substantiallyincrease about 70 percent less in teal terms than the volume of water shipped south ap- in 1976." Tight capital and $200billion pears increasingly doubtful.'" federal deficits are forcing to an end a As the prospects for darns and diver- long era of massive water subsidies. Ilk- Oons to augment dependable water sup torkally, few of these projects have re- plies become less promising, the poten- , turned sufficient-beitits to justify their tial to store surplus runoff underground Manuring FreshwaleY Supplies (o1) is receiving more attention. Artifici- cial potential fOr Third World countries recharging underground aquifers subjected to the destructive flooding ther by spreading water over land that and perennial dry spells of a monsoon allows it to percolate downward or by climate. Capturing excessive runoff and injecting it through a wellis one way to storing it underground can convert dam- both stabilize water tables and increase aging flood waters into a stable source of the amount of for later use. supply, while avoiding the large evapo- Underground storage also avoids dam- ration losses that occur with surface ming afree-flowingrivers minimizes reservoirs. In India. subsurface storage competition for valirabfe land, and pre- has sparked interest as a way of provid- vents large losses of water through evap- ing- a reliable source of irrigation water oration, which are among the principal for the productive soils'of the Gangetic objections to surf-ate reservoirs. Plain. According to some estimates, a More than 20 countries now have :c- fully irrigated Plain could grow crops tiveprojectstoartificiallyrecharge sufficient for three fourths of India's groundwater. Yet tii j4 a few cases has population. On theNorth Plainof the practice been adopted on a large China, also prone to chronic drought. scale. Israel transports 300 million cubic water from nearby surface streams is di- meters of water from north to south verted into an,uderground storage area every year through its National Water with a capacity of 480 million cubic me- Carrier System and stores two thirds of ters. When fully recharged, the aquifer it underground. The water is used to will supply irrigation water for 30,000 ncet high summer demands and offers a hectares of farmland. Several counties in reliable source of supply during dry lebei Province aro also artificially re- years_ In the United States, local water charging aquifersto combat sinking agencies in California, which have been water tables." -recharging groundwater since thywen- Many aquifersarealso recharged ties, now place nearly 2.5 billion cubic unintentionally by seepage from irriga- meters in underground basins each year. tion canals. In such cases, managing NI\ t. The state's Department of Water Re- groundwater in conjunction with the sources also began to seriously investi- surface irrigation water can help prevent gate groundwater storage as the options waterlogging and salinization and may for damming more surface streams be- allow for an expansion of irrigated area came increasingly limited. By 1980, the without developing additional surface department had 34.5 million cubic me- water sources. Such a Arategy has been ters stored in two separate State Water tried in the Indus Valley of Pakistan Project demonstration areas.Prelimi- where a 60,000-kilometer network of ca- nary estimates fin- seven groundwater nals sitS atop a vast groundwater reser- basins indicate a potential for augment- voir. By the mid-sixties, leakage from the ing the SY6144atuine) yield by about 500 canals had tripled the volume of re- millimrtNibic meters, at unit costs at least charge to (he aquifer, and the resulting 35-40 percent lower than the median rise in the water table caused extensive 0cost of water' from newstir reser- waterlogging. Following a World Bank-. voirs. Also, the U.S, Congre*, cted sponsored study of the area, the Paki- legislation in the fall of 1984 authorizing stan Governnient began to subsidize the de nonsiration projects in 17 western installationof tubewellsto tap the st its to recharge aquifers, including the vast amount of water that had collected durm ishing Ogallala:48 underground over the decades. About U derground storage may hold spe- -11,000 public wells have been installed

76 (62) State of the World-1985 under the government program, and in- ration, towing icebergs, and desalting dividual farmers have constnicted ov ,i,,p sea waterdesalination appears to hold ID 100,000 private wells, which. thou In- .-- the greatest near-term potential. builtto supply them with itIV?tioi deed, with the oceans holding 97 per- water, also help control waterlog cent of all the water on earth, desalted Unfortunately,muchofthe er sea water scents to oller (11r ultimate so- pumped istoo saline fOr use esS lution to a limited renewable freshwater mixed with purer surface water, and supply. Sevecral technologies have poor operation and maintenance have proved e(leciive, but their large energy apparently made the public well's' a bur- tequitements make them too expensive den to the government. Yet the strategy for widespread use. Desalting sea water of jointly managing groundwater and is typicallyit) times more costly than surface water may oiler substlfitial be- supplyingwaterfrontconventional nefits where the physical setting is right sources, and applying the process to and the needed technical and institu- brackish (slightly salty) water is 2.5 times tional coordination can he developed." more costly. Total desalination capacity Artificial recharge on a small scale has worldwide is now 2.7 cubic kilometers helped augment local water supplies for per year, less than one tenth of 1 percent decades. The North Dakota town 01 of global water itse: Sixty percent of the Minot, for example, opted for this al* world's calm* is in the Arabian Penin- proach when faced with chronic water sula and Iran, where surface water is vir- shortages and rapidly declining ground- tually nonexistt?ru and even groundwa- water levels_ Its, komplett, recharge sys.. ter is often too salty to drink. Yet even in tem cost only 1 pt,rcent as much as,build- these energy-rich countries, producing ing a pipeline to khe Missouri River, land transporting the desalted water in- another of the Town's supply alterna-; land isin some cases prohibitivelyx- tives. Alter six months of operation, pensive. Though perhaps theulumgte water levels in portions of the aquifer source, deolination is unlikely to deliver had risen more than six. meters." 1)e- its promise of a limitless supply of fresh ,'spite a host of similar local-level success water any time soon. stories, however, the practice is far from realizing its potential. According to Jay

H. Lehr,,Exectitive Director of the Na,. a tional Water Well Association in the

United States, the efficiency. of storing 1 CONSERVING WATER surplus runoff undergroundhas been I proven the world over. The costs, wbile I As affordable options tq augment de- by no means negligible, are reasonable I pendable water supplies diminish, the in the face of other sound 'alternatives; key to feeding the world's growing pop- and a steal when compared to the gran- ulation, sustaining economic progress, diose water schemes of the mega minds and improving living standards will be of the Army Corps of Engineers and the learning to use existing supplies more Bureau of Reclamation. "''t Soviet scien efficiently. Using less water to grow list M.I. L'vovich has predicted that "th grain, make steel, and flush toilets in- 2 I st century will undoubtedly be th creases the water available for other uses century of underground reservoirs.-53 as surely as building a m or diverting Of the less conventional ways to-au a river does. The outli f a strategy to ment a region's 4eshwater supplies curb water demand are car, though no such as seeding clouds to induce precipi- single blueprint can apply to every re- lannA.,Yingreshwatrr Supplie ( 6 7 ) gion. The challenge is to combine the below the soil. An extensive network of technologies, economic policies, laws, perforated piping releases water close to and institutions that work best in each the plants' roots, minimizing evapora- water setting. tiori and seepage losses. These costly Since agriculture claims the bulk of systems thus far have been used .mainly most nations' water budgets and is by fat for high-value orchard crops in water- thelargest constim&, saving even a short areas. Today drip irrigation is used smoil) fraction of this water frees a large on about 10 percent of Israel's irrigatvl amount to meet other needs. Raising ir- land, where experiments in the Negev rigation efficiem ies worldwide by just 10 Desert have s town per-hectare yield in- percent,forexample.wouldsave creases of 80ercent over sprinkler sys- enough water to supply all global tsi- tems. Introduced into the United States ,detial water uses. As discussed !nevi- in the early seventies, these systems now yast quantitiesof water seep water neatly 200,000 hectares and are through unlined c anals while in transit slowly being used on row crops too. In to the field, and much more water is ap- Brazil's drought-plagued northeast,a plied to crops than is necessary for them project sponsored by Ate Inter-Aweri- to grow. The rising cost anew irrigation can Development Bank is experimenting projects, the limited supplies available to with,one design to irrigate crops where expand watering in many areas, and the farm incomes are low and water supplies high cost of pumping are fprcing- gov- are scarce." ernments, international lending aget- cies, and farmers alike to find ways of making agricultural water use more effi- Raising irrigation efficiencies cient. worldwide by just 10 percent would Most farmers in developing as well as Industrial countries use gravity-flow sys- save enough water to supply all tems to irrigate their fields. The oldest global residential water uses. method, and generally the least expensive to install, these systems distribitte water from a groundwater well or sur- Mostirrigtionexperts agree that the face canal through unlined field ditches actual efliliecy of water use obtained in or siphons. Typically, only a small por- the field de[) nds as much on the way the tion reaches the crop's root zone; a large irrigatiosystem is managed as on the share runs off the field. Sprinkler sys- tyre us d. Although drip irrigation may tems, which come in many varieties, he in erently more efficient by design, apply water to the field in a spray. They the wide average range of efficiency for use more. energy than gravity systems each system-40-80 percent kr gravity. and require a larger capital investment flow, 75-85 percent for a center. pivot to install, but they have brought irriga- sprinkler, and 60-92 percent for a drip' tion to rolling and steep lands otherwise systemshows that management is a key suited only for dryland farming. One de- determinant.Farmers using conven- signthecenterpivotsystemwas tional gravity-flow systems, for example, largely responsible (or the rapid expan- can cut their water demands by 30 per- sion of irrigation on the U.S. High Plain9 + cent by Giiiituring and recycling the in recent decades.55 water that would otherwise run off the Drip or trickle. irrigation systems, de- field. Some U.S. jurisdictions now re- veloped in Israel in the sixtic.N.-reapplyipply quire these tailwater reuse $'sterns. water and fertilizer directly -onto or Farmers are also finding, however; that (64) Slate of 'the Worldz.-198 5 they often make good economic Sense automated systems, has begun .export- because pumping tailwaters back to the Mg its product to other countries; by main irrigation ditch generally requires 1982 over 100 units had been sold in the less energy than pumping new water United States. Israel's overall gains in fromlhe source, espc )1r-from a deep agricultural water use efficiency, wilt" through widespread adoption of sprin- Farmers can also reduce water with- kler and drip systems and optimum man- drawals by scheduling their irrigation ac- agement practices, have been impres. cording to actual weather conditions, sive: The average volume of water evapotranspiration rates, soil moisture, applied per hectare declined by nearly and their crops' water requirements. Al- 20 percent between 1967 and 1981, although this may seem like fine tuning, lowing the nation's irrigated area to ex- careful scheduling can cut water needs pand by 39 percent while irrigation by 20-30 percent. At the. University of water withdrawals rose by only 13 per- Nebraska's Ilistitpte of Agriculture. and ent." Natural Resoces, a computer program In the Third World, where capital for called '`IRR 'ATE" uses data gathered construction of new projects is increas- from small w idler stations across the ingly scarce, better management of ex- statetocalcutoevapotranspiration isting irrigation systems may be the best from the different crops grown in each near-term prospect for increasing crop area. Farmers can call a telephone hot- production andconserving water sup- line to find out the amount of water used plies. Lining irrigation canals, for exam- by their crops the preceding week, and ple, can help reduce water vi'aste; pre- then adjust their scheduled irrigation vent waterlogging, and eliminate' the date accordingly. The California Depart- erosion and weed grOwth that makes irri- ?nem of Water Resources is launching a gation ditches deteriorate.60 Yet. canal similar management system with a goal lining is expensive, and other options of saving.. 740 million cubic meters of may prove more.tost-elfective. Seepage water annually by the year 2010. The from canalsis "not necessarily water Department is also demonstrating irri- wasted since iiincreases the potential gation management techniques through groundwater supply. By .coordinating mobile laboratories equipped to evalu- the use and management of groundwa- ate the efficiencies of all types of irriga- ter and surfiice water, as in the case of tion systemsgravity, sprinkler,and the filth's- Valley described earlier, the dripand to recommend ways that total efficiency of water use in an agrictil-: farmers can use their water more effi- tural region can be increased. ciently." Farmers also need control of their irri- Israel has pioneered the development gation water in circler to make good use of automated irrigation, in which the of fertilizer and other inputs that in- timing and amount of water applied is crease crop. yields. Concrete turnouts controlled by computers. The computer that allow farmers to better dictate, the not ,only sets the water flow, it also de- tuning and flow of water to their fields, tects leaks, adjusts water application for forexample, are being built in India, Pa-, wind speed and soil moisture, and opti- kist*n, and elsewhere. At a pilot project. mizes fertilizer use. The systems typi- in Egypt, funded by the U.S. Agency for cally pay for themselves within three tO International Developme\u, improved five years throughater and energy sav- management of irrig4tion systemsis ings and higher c op yields. \Motorola largely credited with hdosting rice yields Israel Ltd., the m in local marketer of 35 percent. Water'savings alone will

79 Managing Freshwater Supplies 6 5 ) often justify such investments: By some the volume of water discharged by 97 estimates, better irrigation management percent.6? in Pakistan could annually save over 50 For the manufacturing industries that cubic kilometersfour times the storage use a great deal of waterprimary met- 'capacity of the nation's Tarbcla Damat als, chemicals, food products, pulp and one fourth the cost of developing new paper, and petroleumthe cost of water water s trpplies is rarely more than 3 percent of total Curbing industrial demand for water, manufacturing expenses. Incentives to the second major draw on world sup- use water more efficiently have come ei- plies, tackles problems in two wilys: It ther from strict water allocations or frees a large volume of fresh water to stringentpollutioncontrolrequire- meet other competMg demaiids, and it ments. In Israel., where virtually all avail- can greatly reduce the volume, ofpol- ablefreshwatersuppliesarebeing luted water disc!ged to local rivers tapped, the government has set quotas and,streams. In,n as+- drveloping coun- on the amount any industrial plant may oN, tries,industry's demand for water is receive. A wate -use standard per unit of growing faster than that of either agri- production is established for each indus- culture or municipalities, A slowdown is try, and a particular plant's allocation is thus essential for sustained economic then calculated by multiplying the stan- growth in water-short regions and for dard by the anticipated level of produc- battling pollution problems that are fast tion. As new technologies are devel- making available supplies twin, for use: oped, the standards are made more In many industries, much of the water stringent. Consequently, average water used is for cooling and other processes use per unit value of industrial produc- that do not require that it be of drinking- tion has declined in Israel by 70 percent water quality. A large share of the'water over the last two decades." initially withdrawn can thus be recycled several (Mies before disposing of it. Thermal power plants can cut their Manufacturing a ton of aluminum quirements by 98 percent or more by from scrap rather than virgin ore using recycled water in cooling towers rather than the typical once-through can reduce the volume of Water dis- cooling methods. Palo' Verde, a nuclear' charged by 97 percent.. power plant built in the desert outside Phoenix, Arizona, for example, is near no body of water; it will draw on nearby In Sweden, industrial water use quin- communities' treated wastewater, which tupled between 1930 and the mid-sixties the plant will reuse 15 times. The water but has since shown a marked decline. needs of other industriesalso vary Strict environmental protection require- greatly, depending on the degree of re- meats for.the pulp and paper industry, cycling: Manufacturing a ton of steel which accounts for about 80 percent of may take as much as 200,000 liters or as the country's industrial withdrawals, fis- little as 5,000, and a ton of paper may tered widespread adoption of recycling take 350,000 liters or only 60,000. More- technologies. Despite more than a dou- over, recycling the materials themielves bling of production between the early can also greatly cut industrial water use sixties and late seventies, the industry and wastewater discharge's. Manuractur-, cut its total water use by halfa fourfoldo, ing a ton of aluminum from scrap rather increase in .waterefficiency.Indeed, than virgin ore, for instance, can redVice largely because of these savings, Sive- .,

i 0 V (66) Stale o/ the IrollelI981 den's total water withdrawals in the mid- recirculating water systei that would seventies were only half the level pro- .(.11 water use by 91 percent andpollu- jected a decade earlier." -tant discharges by 99 percent.ofi Pollution controls spawned bv federal Ilousehold and other municipal water and state laws arc also helping to curb demands rarely account for more than manufacturing water use in many areas .15 per«.nt of a nation's water budget. of the United States. Surveys of Califor- and worldwide they claim only about 7 nian industries show, for example, that -percent of total withdrawals. Vet storing. total water use m manilla( turmg de- treating, and distributing this water, as (lined during die seventies despite a 11 well collecting and treating the result- percentincreaseindie number ofing rasteivater, is increasingly costly. plants. Echoing Sweden's experience, Large capital investments are required, the pulp and paper industry led in ivatei4- making water and wastewater utilities es- reductions. with a 15 percent decline in sensitive to scarce capital and withdrawals between 1970 alld1979. high interest rates. In the United States, Nationwide, industrial withdrawals have ki example. water and wastewater not vet turned the corner, probably be- require-an average of $8.5 billion in came (Along dela\ s in passing the 1)(410- new investment each year. Capital needs non control requirements authorized by for 1982-90 arc expected to total about the (JeanNVatirAct.Vetdeclines $ WO billion, and sonic estimates go should occur when and where solo. stan- muchhigher.67Reducing municipal dards :ire enforced." water use can ease these financial bur- Developing countries are in a prime dens by allowing water and wastewater position to take advantage of these new utilities to scale down the capacity of recycling technologies. Building water new plants, water mains, and sewer ,id pollution contik)I into new pipes and to cut the energy and chemical plants is vastly cheaper than retrofitting assts associated with pumping and treat- old ones. Experience in the West shows ing the. water. that industries will have little incentive Many household fixtures and appli- to adopt these measurs Walton, either ances use much more water than neces- sufficiently high water and wastewater saryto perform their varied functions. fees or stringent pollution control re- Most toilets in the United States. for ex- quiremnts. fvfany of the technologies aple, use -18-22 liters per flush, while available are able to 'reduce water use water-conserving varieties recom- and wastewater flows at least 90 percent Mended by the Plumbing Manufacturers and thus can contribute greatly to al- Institute average about 13. A typical leviating water supply and pollution West German toilet requires only 9 liters problems in growing industrial areas. per flush, and a new model that meets A recent study of an integrated iron government standards useN about 7.5 li- and steel plant near Sao Paulo in ters. just a third as much as conventional for example. showed that the plant was U.S. models'. Showcrheads often spray withdrawing .12,000 cubic meJers' of fOrth 20 or more liters per minute; water- water per hourhighly polluted with the conserving designs can cut this at least in city's sewageand that it was discharg- half,.Water-efficient dishwashers and ing 22,000 tons of iron oxide and 2,600 washing machines can reduce water use tons of grease annually into the nearby 25-30 percent over conventional mod- Santos estuary. For an estimated $15 (14. With simple conservation measures million, or less than $1 per ton of annual such as these, indoor water use can easily production, the plant could installa be reduced by a third." (Sec Table 3-8.)

81 Managing Fresh/0W Supplies (67) 'bible 3-8. United States: Annual Household Water Use and PotentialSavings With Simple Conservation Measures' Share of ,Total Indoor Without With Activity Water Use Conservation Conservation Savings 1.4 : (pekt (10 (thousand !nets (percent) pet capita) Toilet flushing 38 34.5 16.1 52 Bathing 27.6 21.8 21 1 Laundry and dishes 20 18.0 13.1 27 Drinking and cooking 6 5.5 5.5 0 Brushing teeth. rnis( 5 1.1 3.7 10

Total 100 89.7 .60e5 . 33 lEsticnates based on sqater use patterns fina typical U.S. household. European toilets, for xanwle, often use less water than the figures given here woukOmply, soustec: Adapted from U.S. Envtronmental Prow( lion Agency, °Ifni. of Water Program Operattons, Flow Reduction: 3tahodc,4-inalvsis Procplures. Examples (Washington. D.C. I 9I4 I).

Consumers installing these devices watered lawns with desert landscaping and appliances will almost always save led to a 24 percentdrop in percapita money, since they will reduce not only Water use. As a 11._!sult, the 'Tucson util- water use but the energy used in heating ity's pumping costs werereduced water. A typical household in the United the drilling of new water - supply wellswells States, for example, could expect invest- was def&red. Planners thus expected ments in common water-saving fixtures customer water bills to be lower over the and appliances to pay_ for themselves long term than they would have been through lower water,/serewer 'and energy without the conservation efforts." costs injust a fcw months,ofrwithinfour In el Paso, Texas, one of the most wa- years at most. Israel, Italy, and the states ter-short cities in the United States, pric- of California,Florida, Michigan, and ing and education efforts arc also cred- New York now have laws requiring the ited with a substantial reduction in water installation of various water-efficient al)- use. Long-term water supply projections pliances in new homes, apartments, and show conservation meeting about 15-17 . \ offices.69 - percent of thecity'sfuture water needs., Despite its potential financial twnefits Besides slowing the rate of depletion bf to consumers and utilities,municipal El Paso's underground water supplies, conservation is still typically viewed only the conservation measures are saving as a means of combating drought, rarely water for an average cost of about $135 as a long-range water strategy. Programs per .1,000 cubic meters -l-8 percent 1ss developed by water-short ,ciYmintinities than the average cost of.xistinvatcr tofoster lasting reductionsin water use, however, haveyielded fruitful results. In Many other options are available to Tucson, Arizona, a combihation of price reduce the demand .forfresh watjr. 'increases and public educationeffeKts to Some areasare finding,for example, encourage installation M household wa- that brackish w'attr and treated wastewater-saving devices and replacemert(0 tercan meet many oftheir. needs.

1 44, 82 4 , fib) State of theWorld 1 985 In Saudi krabia, brackish water irrigates supplyihg the next increment from thi salt-tolerant crops such as sugar beets, best available source. Consumers would . barley, cotton, spinach, and $late-palms, thuspay more as 'supplies become. tlicireby saving the best-quality water or scarcer. Market forces would foster con- //thinking and other householduses. serration and a reallocation of hater, Treated municipal -wastewater isalso .supplies to their highest valued uses-A. In reused there 'to ireate crops and gar- for example, the value added dens; iv recharge aquifers,.and as a sup- per cubic kilometer of water is 65 times ply for certain industries: Power plants greater in industr):' than in agriculture.7' in Finland, Sweden, the United King- Increasing competition for water and dwn, and the Uniteq States are begin- rising prices thus cliclate a shill in water ning to use brackish water or saltwater use from farming to manufIcturing. 'The S for cooling." (T..xti.nt 4o which a market-driven reallo- .- - . .. -' In perennially dry South Africa, water cation should take place is partially A po- policy specifically calls upon users to litical since it would alter a region's basic character and social fabric; "make tVe of the Alinimum,Oa tyI water of the lowest afcceptab 'i irkbut by economic criteria, itis efficient. any process.- Over thei soveniTf In reality,mater is rarelyliriced at mar- decades, cities and .indilstries'Aare'pro - OW cost; charges often bear little rat- jected to recycle between titlarid 70 pgr- non to the real cost andquarrinty of water cnt of the water they withdraw. Engi- supplied. Many homeowners in Greatl neers estimate that tht1, cost of treating Britain, fin instance, are charged for raw sewa a ..(jualit.ysuitable for _Water aci;ording` to the value of thOr drinking is ry likely competitive witli property, a Offence that dates-"to Victo- rian times. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi .tha of deve ng tte Opt surface water -.***'so irce. In'isiI, 30 itof munki- Arabia., Africa, Tanzania, most i wastewater was ahead being reused Last European countries, and many oth, 'n 1981, niost of it(lir irrigation. With .cis, the government pays all or most of completion of the Dan Region Wasi eNa- the capital-costs for major irrigation pro- ter Reuse Project servijig the 'IPA.1 Aviv iect, . l+arnters in the Ukiled States sup- , , ,- .Ailetropontati,. area, projections are that plied with irrigation water from federal thr-proportiophof municipal' wastemiter. projects pay, on average, less than a fifth of the real cost of suiwlying 435 axpay- reurd, will climb to 80 percent by the ers are htalcued with' the remainder, turn of the, century.' ",, acid (arniellr use more water than, they

, . would if asked to pay its full cost. +IN When water tnserrs supply themselves rather than relying on a piiblic project: they cally pay only the Cost-of 'gettingc r. PRioRkTIES FOR A, NEW ,the water to their farm, factory, or home. 4

"WATER ECONOMY' . But if their withdrawals are diminishing Th'ir'iner sOttrce or parceling an ecosystivn, Much Of the profligate waste and they should bear the costs that their , ciency today's use .4 water ..iPsults v4te actions impose on society. Ameri- from ;pelliciesthatptconitheanan: co farmers pumping water from the tiquateiLillut.,,iWtedlatice. People aqujfer, or:exam))1e, pay nothT 'rarelypay thoffriCrtrost of the wette theyeg ing extra for tle right to -,earn th0. use. Economists often suest prict rofits Ely depleting an irreplaceable re- water atit'smarginal. cost r cost.° urce. On the contai-y, many gel a tax

II I Managing. FreAhwater Stipp 14;1 (69) , - break by claiining a depletion *allowance overburdening. them. Moreover, where based on the drop in water level beneath groundwater 'supplies -- areailailable,

theirland that year. The greater thr de.- farmer-Y.:may be able tO profitably con- . pletion,,the greater the allowances steno iftig-ation wells- with minimal pub- hardly an incentive to conserve.76 A he support. n India, over 1.7 mOlion pri-i''''' more appropriate policy would be to tai.._.- vine tu Mk Iibeweiii been installed by the groundwater pumping in all areas where late sevellties*leAtiy (be availability of aquifers are being depleted. That way,,4 crHit with veer reasonable interen and the public gets some cocci iensation for FepjyllICIII khins. For many farmers on the loss t g source, ail larmem.are the Indo-thnigetic Plain, installation of encouraged to ( irb'their withdrawals.*these wells ha; Ykekiled rates of return. In much of the Third World, where greater than 50 permit." the cost per hectare of building new irri- Water'nsers ntust also begin to pay for treati4 gation systems often exceeds per.capita ng the .water "they pollute. Espc- xi gross national product, pricing water at dally in many art'as of. the Third World, itl full cost may not always be feasible. water bodies camitSt long be expected to Water is often stqiplied for free or is a provide a source of high-quality thinking _-.7heavily subsidized because it is.so vitalto atiZI irrigation water and to dilute the hi- ,- food production.-Yet most experts agree 'creasing tonnage of waste dumped into that the iiflicient operation and po\ir them each year. Dilinion ;Arnie limply maintenartee of irrigationsystemsis." cannot mitintain adequate water qualiCy ..`

largely clue to farmers' perceptiops tha in a society undergoing rapid industriali- . they have no responsibility for them. I- zat Mil .an40 nrbanizatibn.InduStries \ lernational lending agencies-are now in-. should pay the full cost of using water in

4vesting handsome 1.17,ns (o rehabilitate their production, which includes'. the cost ,.. irrigation systems that sound operation of discharging most of it in a form suit- and maintenance could have kepi in able for reuse. Controlling pollutiop is.. goo(' working order. l-laving farmers pay costly: Funds for protecting quality nowt,, some share of water costs gi's them a account for over half the U.S: budget for stake in the syStem, besidesiterating water resource development and revenue to improve operations.77. aapibunt to.V.4.5 billion annually.% Devel- A- combined strategy of chargin'g oping countries may not have die (Man! Third World farmers for some share of cial resources' to subsidize- costly polio- system costs and org5nizing them into tion controls while at the same time ''water user associatiops- to coordinate continuing to improive irrigai ioursystems management tasks airlhe collection of and 'install drinking water services. In- fees appears a promising way, of improv- dustrialization should proem'. in tan-. ing irrigation management. Arguing for dem with industries' ability to pay for" . more attention to pricing and water user-controlling tlK, pollution they generate. organizationepin "Thailand, trconemist iSacrificing water quality for industrial Ruangdej Srivardhana of Kal'etset UM-N growth cannot bt a winning prop sition ,ersity in Bangkok says t in)orii'm for kirthe, long run. , ._ Thai farmers to improveeir practices 4 . Existing laws and methods for allocat- '.'the feeling, that the irrigation facilities ing water. supplies', are often heavily belimg to aid are useful to them is -cm- biased,. toward- those wantingtowitt- cial."18. Charging a' modest price for an aw water akl against those desiring

-initial allOtment and .Nigher fees for iat-it remain in. place. Jhe-old English

water used above this,arinount would en- common law; which required that :. courage farmers to conserve witillout riparian landowiter not diminish thr . -7 A , 'itl ,

84 (70.) State .p.1 the World /985 quantity or quality of water remaining it waterlperitsor rights could be for downstream users, inherently pro- ae ed in order to prevent violation.of tected stream ecology and habitats. Yet -The publir trust." I this rule was changed early in the Ameri- In a landmark decision handed down can experience to give riparians the right in February 1983, the California Su- to "reasonable use" of the water, thus" preme Court declared that the water allowing for alterations in streamflows. rights of the City of Los Angelles, which - In the drier states of the American West, allow diversions from the Mono Lake an appropriative system was adopted Basin, are subject to the public trust doe that is even more biased toward with- trine. Mono Lake, a hauntingly beautiful drawals:Waterrightsareallocated water body on the eastern side of the successively to those who put Water tO Sierra, has diminished in surrace area by lik "benefici:II use.'' Establishing sucha use, a third, largely because Los Angeles is. and thus a water right...often required an diverting water from is major tributar- . actual diversion from the stream. As its. The lake is also becoming more Sa-. legal expert James -Huffman notes, this,line, threatening its brine shrimp .popu- was not a problem "until the combiira- lation, which in turn, feeds millions ol- - , 4 tiort of cianging valves and diminishing local and migratory birds. 13 iivokits , water supplitt\ brought the issue of in- the public trust doctrine, the California \' stream flow miiinteriance to. the Public. Court paved the way (Or a,state 'agency attention:1". .,. .-,.- or the courts to"decide that, Los Angeles Ili., A numberof-options exist for govern- must reduce, its diversions from the ments seeking to ph -serve an ecolOgical Mono Lake Basin. California law proles- balance ii\ their rivers and''stre ins. In sor Harrison C. Punning writes: "Al- the-United States, for example, N ontana though rainr ications of (he ruling-may- .passed a law in 1973 that allows,ivern-, not be aprent for years, there can be ment agencies to acquire prospective no doubt that .it will 'raise new bbstacles waster rights. 'Much of the state's water for thos(3 who word divert California's has nt4 yet been appropriated, sounder natural-stream flows to tam) and c0 use.. this legislation a large share of it can be ....From now on, the state must protect ,,reserved to protect .stream ecology. Be- what the couU dills. 'the people's*com- cabse o these reserved rights, much of- onheritage of streams, Likes, marsh- ,.. w, tlieVellowstone River will never be with- lands and tidelands'."" .) : drawn for use. Many rivers and stOtams Where demands arc already at the lim-- :in.,fhe United States, howeVer, de al-sits of the available supply, regulations 4.0., '04 ready fully appropriated during theidry nitavbe necessary to put water use on a . 'season of the }dear. `Preserving Water: sustainable tooting. Strategies geared 'quality and fish and ;Wildlik habitats thus toward balancing the water budget are , requires ,soine foirn of regulation that lacking in 'mostm areas of fulling water ta- limitfi withdrawals during periods of di- hies or shritikint surface 'supplies. De- ' minished floir. One of the mqstpowerful. spite pleas by hyirolligists; for example, l / tools available, tHougli as yeaAhttle used, Ito Radian staNs Rave paused laws to regis what legal experts call the "public.., ulate, the installation of ttibevielis or to 0,.. trust" mine. 1)ating%back to Roman limit -groundwater withdrawals. In the ....- t assertsthatgovernments hold southern tklate of Tamil Nadu, authori- ....* ...,. certarights intrustpr the public and ts,areie doingd !Adele,!Ad curboerpumping v . can take action to,-profect them from Pri- that in dome areas has caused groundwa- 4 ,. Nateinterests. Its application has polen- ter levels to\ drop 30, meters in just a tially Sweeping effects since even exist-.! deOdt.Hytifologisttsnotethatdie- . r r . k''!0 vi r. 4 .11anagnng Fres/floater. Stcppliel "long-term effects are probably under- resource available at a lower cost and stood, but until the water disappears. it with less environmental disruption than is hardly likely that anyone is going tii do developing these new supplies. Conser- anything about the situation.:'"' vation's potential will never be realized At least one example worth emulating until it is analyzed as a viable long-term has emerged m the United States: the option comparable to drilling a new well. 1980 Arizona Grounchvater Manage- or building a new reservoir. ment Act. Facing a rapidly dwindling water supply; the state is requiring its most overpumped areas to achieve "safe The Soviet Union's planned diver- yield" by the year 2025. At this level no sion of Siberian rivers may meet t,more groundwlter is withdrawn thanlis recharged; the resource is lbw in 'bal- 6nly one fourth of the deficit ex- ance. Achieving this goalwill by no pected in central Asia. means be painless. Conservation 'ilea- syres will be required of all water users end all groundwater withdrawals will be Steps toward this end were taken, in taxed. No subdivided land can be devel- the United States dining the late seven-. ,,,oped without proof of an assured water ties. In a June 1978 water policy message ,-,supply.. lif by the year 200 it appears to the nation,"President Carter resolved that clonervation alone will not achieve to make conservation ii national priority. 'the state's goal,tlw,,, government can Government .1gencies began to make -'begin buying and retiringfarmland. federal grants and loans for water proj- Shiftu in Arilonass)1 economy have al- ects conditional upon intlusion Of cost- re4dy `begun: Betw,'n 1978 and 1982, effective conservation measures. Numer- , jhe state's irrigat&I,:iirea declined 8 per- ous analyses .suggested that substantial cent..0ther ciiter-short regions should savings would accr le both to the gov- ,recognize that such shifts are-bound to et urict and to co in-ninnies and their occur, and that they will be less trau-. resltlfuts fforn inc.cures to curb water mak, if, as Arizona is doing, they are demand. Unfortunaely, the Reagan ad- e, sectby thoughtful planning. Many took sevsal steps backward - i.govc annen6 wilt be watching as the real when i the.conservation re- ' "41t test ( f Arizona's law begins in the -nine- quiremitip:tto voktpitaguidelines and \ ("7- ties. 5 . disbtfitC'ie he 11,ater Rsources Court- . nally, planners and educators must cil, which had been-pitsifurg fur, a more duel the Myth that conservation is pc.- 'economically efficient and environmen- r/usively a short-term strategy to iillevi- tally sound water policy. California has ate droughts and other immediate crises. taken the lead where the federal govern- Cinlyin 411,dry haticins as South Africa ment has kAtered: A 1983 law requires ...0and 4rael is criservation made an into- every 'major itrban water supplier in the gral part of planning future water sup- state to stifmut by the end of 1985 a man- plies. In these 4)untries, which' arc al- agement. plan that explicitly eVilohlaleS Ile wady tapping most of their available effiderlelt 'measures a4 an allipernative to sCatirces, continually striving to increase develciping new Anpplies." the efficiency of water use is imperative Most goycrnments continue iepect if grcirth, is Attcontinue. 'Rut even in nil- traditieinal dam and diversion cts to tionslwith untapped,hivers ana aOuifers, relieve regional water stres the ,in easu es to com(erve, recycle, and reuse engineering complexities os fresh ter may in many cases make the ects, along with their threat ecologi-

41. s.

(72) Stale ()I Or' II.01 1(1-- I VS 5 cal disruption, pric . steps .toward a water-eIhnent economy, tags, and 20year lead times leave little is risky: Vital 111CreaNCS'Ill toOd prOdlIC- hope that (hey will deliver water in time (ion may never materialize, industrial ac- to avert projected-shortagesif, ineed, tivity may stagnate, and the rationing of

they are completed at all. In the l Thud chinking -water supphcs- become World, unless deforestation and erosion more commonplace. ale curbed. and irrigation systems are Alternatives (0 large (lain and devil-- better nt inag{-cl and maintained, large sum projects exist. Water ( rises netd not, projects may waste scat «- capital and di- occur. Sec-ming more-dependable sup minish the odlictivityof opland. plies in the HARI Would can and should' morcovcr, even the most grandiose continue, but it may better be done- with schemes %yin no( be ultimate solutions (0 smaller projec is nuu e amenable to coor- regionalwau..i. problems. The Soviet dinated land arid water management, Union's planned diversion ()I the Sibe- with mc remental development Of rian rivets', fox' example, may meet only. groundwater,itml especially with, Joint one fourth of the deficit expec ted in cell- managententof surfaceand under- o al Asia. Water delivered to Arizona ground' supplies. In ivaler-short areas of through he Central Ariioria hoject will industrial «Hinnies, people and eco- make up for only halt of the state's all-. nomic activity mils( begin ac waing (0 imal groundwater depletions and thus irwater's limited availability.is,ipplies in not alone balance (he water budget. Sovietentral Asia, for exa le,simply Against an insatiable demand, the best (au., support a booilning population any dam Or diversion can (10 'IN to SIMS' and an expanding farming. economy for the depletion of supplies or delay (he long. Oasis cities such as Phoenix and day when they fall short. Los Angeles -can no longer expect to In an era of growing competition foe grow and thrive by 'draining the wAter limited water sources, heightened envi- supplies of, other regions. Conservation romnental awareness, and scarce and and better management can free a large costly 'capital, new water strategies .arc volume Of wateik--and capitalfor com- needed. (41tirming to hank on new peting uses. "link far, we have seen only large water projects, and fading to take hintk of their potential'.

"Vs

A'1.11" 0,,t4 "e'lk ti t, 4

8 . 4

Maintaining 2 World Fisheries( Le,Ster R. Brown c

The world's fisheries oipv an impor- that humanity would ultimatelyturn to tant niche in the global ecosystem, the the oceans for ('acid, This widely publi- world economy, and the human- diet. cized case...TIN- appears to have been just. Their annual harvest-74 milliontons in the mast extreme example ofa world.: 1983---,,,exceeds world beef production Mdc: pattern: As recentlyas a generation by a substantial margin. Yielding av-ago oyerlishing was the exception. Now erage of 16 kilograms per capita live in some regions it seems to be the rule. weight for a world population of 4.76 billion, fisheries supply 23 percent of all animal protein consumed. More impor- *14 tantly, in many low-income countries,as well as in a kw industrialones, fish are GLOBAL SUPPLY AND the principal source of animal protein. t MCllrons(of people make their living DEMAND front supplying fish: Two milliof Latin Between 1950 andq1970, the world Americans, for example, tarn a living fish catch increased from 21 millionto this way. And oi\ the densely populated 66 million metric tons, more than trip.: island of Java, which is heavily depen- igwithin two decades. (See Table 4-1.) dent tin the Catch from the surrounding /Wl unprecedented expansion in world waters,1.8 million Javanese figlifull- population combined With an equally time. The World Bank estimatessthat 1.2 unprecedented risein per capita .pin- million,workersworldwidesupport conies boolikivd demand for animal pro- themselves by fishing or fish fanning; lent On the supply side, advances in millions more are involved in thetrzms- fishing technology and the availability of portation, processing, and marketing of cheap ,oititd to the development o(dis- -their catches.2 tam-water fishingfleetsthat iliterally It is no surprise, then, that the col- scciured the oceans in search of edible lapse the Southeast Pacific anchovy sea life. sh r,the early seventies, due 19 Dining th'e' fififes and-sixties thist overfi mg and 'ocean, vari tty, caught traordinary growIth rtt t$4! catch led (0a the at mion of manylivhc ha assumed feeling that 'the oceans contained infinite 4

(71) .4 Mate 01 Ihr / 985 supplies of fish. Projections. made at this 1970. growth in the annual world Tish tithe commonly indicatedthecatch au h slowed to less than 1 percent. And would eventually reach 200-400 million in per capita terms, the growth of neatly tons annually. In quantity terms. the per 4 peic'ent pet Veal' during the fillies akid capita .harvest went from just over 8 kilo- sixtiesbecame a decline. of almost I per- grams in 1950 to nearly 18 kilograms in ( ent yearly fitter 1970. 1970, a doubling that 'contritikt ed lo int Most of the lisla caught are useddi- pi ()Yemenis in human nutrition in many rectlyforhuman Imsumption. But part countries. of the catch-largely the inferior species By the seventies. however, there were or waste from the processing of table- signs of overfishing: After increasing at glade fed to hogs and chickens. nearly r3 percent per rear (ruin 1050 to Despite the leveling oft hi the world fish catch, the amount used hit' fish Meal, for Table 4-1. World Fish Production, Total fertilizer, and as a source of fish oil has_ and Per Capita, 1950-83 changed little over the last delude, remaining fairly steads'at 20 million tons, Fish lyrucluc close to 30 percent 01 theWorld catch.3 !'iodic lion Per In some countries, such as japan and YearPopulation Lion' Capita Thailand. non-table fish are commonly (bah( (metric tons) (kilograms) fed to higher-value fish produced by fish 1950 '21.1 limners. The relative contribution of _ oceanic fishing versus fish [arming is g, as growth in the ore- 1955 2.7-15 28.9 10.5 slowly' chair ani«-atch sl7Ms and that of aquaculture A steadily expands. As of the mid-eighties,, 1960 3 026 '4k) 2 13.3 fish tannin'{ accounts for roughly 9 million of thic 75-million-tn global harvest 1965 3.3-1:1 53 2 15.9 -nearly one eighth of the total. A grow.; ing emphasis on this approach is evident 1970 3.678 65.6 17.8 in the lending of international aid agen- 1971 3.746 66.1 17.6 1972 1.815 62.0 16.3 cies such as the World Bank and the U.N. Food Organiz;Aion, I973 3.885 62.7 16.1 Agriculture (FAO). Assistance that previously con- 1974 '3.951 66.5 t6.8 centrated on investments in better boats and improvedports and processing 1975 4.033 66.4 16.5 1976 4.107 69.4 16.9 shiftediward fish farming during the seventies, as it beGame clear dial 1977 .182 68.11 16.4 there were a limited number of fish Ties 1978 -1.258 -... 70.2 I ti.5 in which investment in additional capac- 1979 4.336 71.2 16.1 ity would be profitable:4 The oceanic fish catch is composed of 1980 4 4 IS 72.3 16_4 16.-A an indescribable diversity of aquatic or- 1981 4.495 75.1 ganisms: the FAO reports that more 1.577 76.8 16.4$ 1982 than 100 species of linfis,crustacearis, 1983 .1.660 74.0 15.9 and shellfish are harvested on a commer- yank (Mill. ann1.) cial scale. Of this long list, some 22 spe- fanning. sovai.E: United Nations Food and Agnc %thine 01- cies commonly yield 100,000 tons or ganiiation.rearboolt q/ h.shetv .SintWits (Rome: vaii- 'more per year, and sins( 5---herrings, % (..1) 4. cods, Jacks; redfishes, and mackerels,

89 *AA Maintaining Foheries e plus the associated relativesof these w spe- anchovies, and pilchards,which yielded ciesaccount for more than 40 million a harvest of over 16 milliontons in 1980, tons, well over half the annualcatch. muclf of whichis consumed indirectlyin (See Table 4 -2.) the form of pork and_poultry produced The most prolific of theseare the her- with fish meal. Herringsare not a high- rings (in the North Atlantic).sardines, value table fish, althoughthey arc con- sumd directly in bothindustrial and de- Table 4-2. World FishCatch By Species, veloping countries. Secondon the list is 1980 the cod family, witha catch of nearly 11 million tonsin 1980.. Included in this Species Qtiantity group are the heavily fished Atlanticcod, --- (he haddock, and the (thousand iklaska pollack,a fish that has soared inimportance over metric tons) the past decade. 4 Herrings, sardines. 16,225 The place of fish in the anchovtes, etc. human diet Cods, hakcii. haddocks. v4ries widely around the world.Per etc. J 0,720 capita fish consumptionin the Soviet Jacks, mullets, sauries.etc. 7,338 Union, for example, is roughly Redfishes, basses, twice 5,247 high as in the UnitedStates. Faced wi congers, etc. difficulty in expanding Mackerels. snoeks, livestock output 4,226 during the fifties and sixties,the Soviets cutlassfishes, etc. decided it would be easier Tunas, bonitos, to satisfy their illfishes, etc. 2,490 animal protein needs byinvesting heav- Shrimps, prawns.etc. 1,681 ily in.distant-water fisheries. Squids, cuttlefishes, As a result octopuses, 1,572 itotowere at thy forefront of launching etc. rocessing factory ships, whichper- Clams, cockles, arkshells,etc. 1,177 mitted their fleet Flounders, halibuts, soles, to range to the world's etc. 1,084 far corners in searchof protein, prRfits, Oysters 973 and foreign exchange.'' Sea-spiders, crabs, etc. 848 In some industrial countries,such as Shads, milkfishes,etc. 818 japan and Norway, fish Salmons, trouts, smelts. figure promi- etc. 770 nently in the diet. TheJapanese, with a Carps, barbels, and other 616 per capita seafood consumption of 200 cyrinids Pounds per Mussels year, consume Far morcy,ksh . 614 than they do reelmeat or poultry. Given Sharks, rays, chimaeras,etc. 583 the nation's low ratio Of Krill, planktonic land to people, 425 the government decidedlong ago that it crustaceans. etc. would use its Tilapias-and other cichlids scarce land resources to 367 piliduceitsstarchy staple-c-rice-;--and Scallops, petens,R. 364 would obtain as much of its anima/bp-ilii. Freshwater mollusks 2-61 ten from the oceanas,possible..tiM Lobsters, spiny-rock 108 combined with a lobsters, etc. strong cultural prefer- All other ene for seafood over redmeat, led to 13;676 the evolution of heJapitnrse. "fi'siNend rice- did.° Total -,.. 7i,19 Although per capita fishconsumption SOURCC'United Nations Fool! andAgtiulture Or- in Third World countries islower on av- ganization,Yearbook .of Asher, Statistics(Rome: 1981). erage than in the industrial world, it is bonetheless a key proteinsource in the tab) Matt, Ihr 11"oildI 98it diet of coastal peoples. A scrap ofdried tries consumed little fish, but with fish ku a rice dish can often mean the provements in preserving and transport- difference between a nutritionally ade- ing, this is slowly changing. At that time, quate diet and, oneseriously deficient in very little of the catch wasfrozen; today protein. Thus the worldwidedecline in close to one Idth is marketed in this the per capita fish harvest does not form. Meanwhile the drying offish, the augur well (or future.nutritional !au- traditional method of preservation in nt ovements mdeveloping «mimics. Third World.countrics, has 'declined as transportation advances haveeflecnvely shortened die distance from catcher to A scrap of dried fish in a rice-dish «nista incr." can often meanthe difference be- Biologicalc onstraims onsupplies, tween a nutritionallyadequate diet mismanagementof fisheries,investments infish farming, and changing and one seriously deficient in pro- tastes allinteract to reshape seafood tein. «msumption patterns overtime. The relative importance these influences arc likely to have in the years ahead is dis- [he composition of national seafool cussed in the remaihder of thischapter. consumption patterns ilso varieswidely. For example, in the United States tuna acupies a prominent position in overall seafovd costimption: With tuna sand- .withes and salads a common fare, U.S THE EXTENT OF consumption accountsfOr more than one third of the world tunacatch. "Fo the OVERFISHING- elktent that tuna stocks arestressed, this An FA() asses_ sment of the status ofthe responsibility of American is targets the 19 rincipal fisheries that account for consumers; conversely,the fortunes of the dr of the catch in the Noythwest Atlan- the world's tuna fishing fleets rest on tic givesan idea of the1. ontemporary American appetite for this lish. Euro-4 pressures on this resource base.The pean appetites arein some ways similar stocks of 4 have been.de feted, and9 to thost!. in North Amei-icabut there are othOrsaredescribed' "fullyex- also sonic notable differences. Herring, ploited," In FAO terminology, this often forexatliptr-,--is-8favored seafood item, overfished particularly in the Scandinavian coun- means thatihey are heavily and thatthe ityield haslc'en 'reduced well "tries And in West Germany. japan below their biologic I' maximum, but the collar-les along the14direrranean's fully northern shore -- Spain, Portugal, and that the stacks have-not yet been Italyconsume most of the million and depleted. ?all tons of squid caught yearly. Infact, Tito silver hake, for example, has a po- 1st as Americans . consume over one tential yield of 250,000 tons but the third of. the world tuna catch, the Japa- catch in 1965 totaled 383,000 tons_more nese consume nearlyhalf that of squid.? Owl half again its estimated slpstainable Geographic patterns of marine pro- yield. By the Carly seventies igdropped tein consumption have shifted overthe to 270,000 tons and ip1981 just 62,000 last three dftesdes as transportation sys- tons were caught, scarcely a quarterits tems have 'expandedand processing estimated potential. Assuming thisde- techniques have advanced. A generation cline is due to stock depletion, it is'easy ago inland regionsof Third coin,- to calculate overfishing'sreduction of 91 .11(11711(1v-wig World Fi.sherin ( 7 7 ) the catch. .-01 the 6 other principal from (he mid-sixties through the early Northwest Atlantic fisheries, 3includ- seventies doomed itto collapse even ing squidare believed to be only mod- without any a Range in (he current. (See erately exploited and the status of 3 oth- Figure 4-1.) During seven of the eight ers is listed as unknown because their years from 1964 through 1971 the an- biological potential has not been dter- chovy harvest exceeded 9.5 milliontons, mined. Then. has not befit enough in- (he level identified by a team of, FAO formation gathered on the crab and clam fishers biologists as (he maximumsus- population of the Northwest Atlantic, tainable yield of (he lishOUV. The subse- for instance, to estabrai luoktgit alpo- quent pltumnet to around 4 million tons, tential and hence to determine whether and then to lust1.5 million, makes it overharvesting has occurred."' questionable that these stocks willeve! There are a few species- that areover- c °vet to the level oltwo decades ago. exploited in some regions whilescar( eh As early as 1973 C.P. Idyll,a leading touched in others. Foritts(tince,the fisherybiologist,observed "thereis cephalopod fisheries(octoptt, some reason to fear that the worlds and cuttlefish the east «sntiAtlannt greatest stock of fish may have been ir- have been he y harvested. All three reversibly damaged.'" Marine biologist arse overexploitei. After several annual Davit! Fluharty believesac atch of 9.5 harvests of well over 109,000 tons ofoc- nrillioiltons is (00 high even for the topus, the catch in 1980 fell to 48,000 fishery's good years, when the current is tons.Similarly, over 30,000 tons of normal. Aqd he suggests that theau- squid were caught each year (luring (he chovy quota must be adjustedon a year- seventies; the harvest in 1980was only to-year basis according to conditions if its 11,000 tons, well below the estimated vie Idis to be maximized over (he bong .110 potential of 40,000 tons.'' term." by the early eighties I I major oceanic Tbe collapse of .this anchovy fishery, fisheries-6 in the Atlantic and 5 in the once the world's largest, basheencostly. Pacifichad been depleted to (he point Peru lost two export commoditiesthe ofcollapse.Theyrange fromthe fish meal and the guano fromsea birds Peruvian anchovy, which hadan es- that depend on- anchovythatonce timated potential of 9 million tons, to dominated its foreign-exchangeearn- the Alaska king crab, witha possible ings. When this fishery was at its peak, in yield of nearly 100,000 tons. This mis- 1970, exports' of its products earned management is an extiensive error. For Peru $340 million, roughly a third of its example, the North Atlantic codfilheri, foreign exchange. The disappearance of which could yield up to I.35-I.7n ma- this vitally needed source of hardcur- lign tons, has:netted less thihn 600,000 rency contributedtothe growth of tons in recent years. Similar calculations Peru's. external debt; in the mid eighties for 'other fisheries provide.-a startling over 40 1)ercent of the nation's exports overall piNure of some 11 million ton* are required merely to service its out- of potential catch lost eachyear because standing loans. And the world has losta of fishery mismantgemeni. (See :Fable major protein supplement,once used in 4-3,) 4 the rations of hogs and poulty." Although the Atlantic. cod fishery now To thenoi.th, the developments in the 44 appears to he slowly recovering, the Alaskan king cab fishery have closely Peruvian .anchovy fisheryis not. The paralleled those of the anchovy. Found shifts. in the current off Peru's coastcan principally in the seaxoff Alaska and the directlyanddramaticallyaffectthiS nearby Aleutian Islands; the king crab fishery, vet it seems-clear that overfilling became an.international delicacy inre- ;

(78) Slate of thell'or/d/ 985 cent decades. Commercial crabbing in the earlier level. Surveys showed ;Ipr the region by the Japanese got under ciPitous drop in the number of fertile way in1930, bue it was disrupted by females: One analysis in late 1982es- World War II and did not resume ona timated that only ,27 percent of the meaningful scale until the fifties. .1-he lc-wales had egg clutches. Shocked by seventies witnessed rapid growth in- the, these findings, the Alaikan Department harvest of this species. Landings of this Uish and Game detiared anemer- widely sought after seafood peaked in gent v closure of the fishery. The unan- 1980 at 86.000 tons. By 1984 the catch ticipated collapse' of the Alaskan king had fallen tot7.000 tons, less thana tenth crab populationstartledfishers and Tahh.! 4-3. Oceitnic FisheriesThat Illavf ilectt Depleted

Loss From 1...timateil1981 Misman- Region Species Mani Fishing Commies Potential,* Can liagcnient (thousand men ic tons)

Northwest. Atlantic Canada, Flan( e, cenland, 1,350 588 762. Mantic (:od ,5pam. United states.-Smiei Union I laddoc k Canada. United States 100 83 17 Capelin (:anada, Soviet Union . 500 39 .161 At . Canada, United States 300 22.1 76 lltring

Northeast --' Atlantic Denmark, Finland, E. 2,000 732 1,268 Atlantic Hen ink Germain, Poland, Sweden, Soviet Union

Southeast Pilchard Inion, South Mina 700 99 601 Atlantic

Nottktwest 4 Salmon Jalpi Soviet Union 400 251 ' 1,49 Pacthc fe) Northeast Pacific Halibut Canada, Uniteci States la 38 15 23 Pacific (dean Dalian 210 26 184 .Perch King (:rah2 United States. 7 33

Southeast Ainiio VCt a Peru 9,000' I,550 7,450 Pacific

Total Shortfall Due to Stock Deple tom 1.1,024 4 'Where a range is given. by, the FAO, the lower curl of thetange is used.2Catilylatu lot 198. 'Estimated potential by FA() for c Mons prevailiniduring the sixties. sotiRcr.: United Nations Food and A ieulture Organization. "Review of the State of World Fishery Resources,' Rome, July 1983.

93 40iWO AVAILABLE . Atop-flout, lig World ( 79 ) fishery managers alike and raised ques- repiroductive rates, and other factors tions about cvhether.the species will ever needed to manage stocks intelligently. recover. Inothercases,thedeficifsncyhas In the Western Indian Ocean. several stemmed from an inability to interpret species of fish are tinder pressure from .available data correct h. Before theex- India and Pakistan. The export-oriented tension of offshore limits to 200 miles, shrimp industries in both countries are there was often no national or other au- stressing shrimp stocks in the vicinity of thority responsible for limiting the catch the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea; and establishing quotas for the national Arab countries reportcatches doWn fleets working a lisher Once collective sharply from the peak a decade ago. demand exceeded the sustainable yield, Human activities. including. the (lesum the -tragedy of the commoni.- often IO1- lion of nursery areas by land reclamation 101,ved. In still other situations, overlish- and coastal pollhtion and toverlishing, ing has resulted from the inability or the appear to be responsible." unwillingness of the responsible au- Such factors may be affecting shad in thorities to enh)rce quotas. India, where the catch of the freshwater spawning lishdeclined by more than two thirds in three yearsfrom 35,000 tons Ov(thelast 10 years even newly in 1978 to 11,0(.10 tons in 1981. This par- developed fisheries in the more allels an earlier decline in the U.S. shad catch. Although on opposite sides of the southernlatitudes have quickly globe, the same factors appear to he re- been fislid to the point of elapse. , sponsiblenamelystreampollution, heavy fishing, and quite possibly rising acidity in freshwater rivers as a result of- Whatever the cause, the past two expanding fossil lirel combustion." decades have been market] by the col- Althoughoverlishinghas become lapse of one fishery after another. Al- CAiturnonplace: itis not always for the though these collapses were initially same reason. In. some instances it has confin.-ed fo the North Atlantic, they soon resulted from a lack of data on stocks, spread to the North Pacific as well. Over the last 10 years. even newly developed NI fisheries in the more southern latitudes \ feint- lilac the Southeast Pacific, the Gulf of Thai- 15 land, the Indian Ocean, and the New Zealand coastal fisherieshave quickly been fished-to the point of collapse. The net result is that no intormed person can 10- 4-mitated maximum now doubt That there Are limits to the sustainable 14.141 growth of the catch in any fishery. What is not always clear iS whether a particular year-to-year decline is the result of riatti- ves, such as climatic variation, or oft .,,Jfishing. Worse still, a natural decline induced by changes in water temperature,, for example, can itself trigger .enure MO overfishing, particularly if the catch is already'too close to the sustainable yield. 1%0 1 970 1 ()80 1(1)0' Scientists are now looking clo3ely at Figure 4-1. Peruvian Anchovy Catch, 1960.99 the interaction bowl' stocksasit

9 4 .18o) State of the 985

. becomes clear that the cohiplex inter- predator species would be to try to have play among species makes it difficult, if one's cake and. eat it too."" not impossible, to manage a given stock Decisions about where to maximize effectively in isolation. A 1983 FAO cir- harvest on the focid chain face fishery cular observed that "big fish eat little managers everywhere. They are -fash- fish, but large indiViduals of small spe- ioned by a combination of biological, cies can eat small individuals (including economic, and social constraints. The eggs and larva) of larger species." It is most basic question is whether to maxi- not uncommon in a fishery with several,mite the harvest of the larger species species. for the fall in the yitili of one to high .ors the fOod chain (usually prime hr followed by a rise in that of another. table species) or that of the smaller spe- But this may or may not he a simple cies, which are valued primarily fbr the cause-and-eflct relationship, since, the production of fishmeal. Economics stock of any particular species can vary in often dictate the answer. Peru, for exam- response to natural forces." ple, converged Its huge anchovy harvest A 1983 report from the International of over tti million tons Or year in the Cent'r forLiving Aquatic Resources late sillies and mid-seven( tofish. Management-observes: "Dangerous meal because there was simpno mar- shifts in species composition are occur- ket for such a vast quantity of inchovics ring on many fishing grounds as more as food. valuable stocks diminish and fishermen In looking at the resouicies of the shift to smaller species that are lower on North Sea, the choice can be find rather the food chain. Irreversible changes may _explicitly. K.P. Andersen and Erik Ursin be taking place reminiscent of those oc- ask: Do we want the food resources of curring in -the Californi-a sardine fishery the North Sea to end up "on the dining or the' Peruvian anchoveta fishery in table in the form of cod fed With living which heavily fished stocks have been fish or in the form of chicken led with greatly reduced resulting in lasting eco- fish meal?" Among other thine this logical changes."' 9 choice involves an assessment of the rel- Determining the maximhm.sastaina- ativeefficiencywith which cod and ble yield of each fishery is a useful start- chicken convert small fish further down ing point for better management of this the fOod chain to a highly valued food World resource, but itis of little use on forny.21, itsown.Itmust be species-specific, Furthercomplicating management, recognizing thatitis not possible to fishers alone cannot maximize the sus- maximize the harvest of species at all lev- taintible yield when given, for example, els on the oceanic food chain. In an anal- the influence of waste discharges by in- ysis of the krill fishery in Antarctica, ohn dustry, municipalities, and agriculture. R. Beddingtou and Robert M. May unit, Whole fisheries can be destroyed by na- out that "clearly the guiding principle tional energy policies that encourage cannot be maximum sutainable yield for coal burning that reads to acid rain and each species. The. maximum sustAinable acidification of freshwater lakes and yield of baleen whales is achieved by *Yearns. Chemical stress of the marine leaving their food (krill) entirely alorie\:. environment directly affects fisheries but v, For krill, the maximum sustainable yield itis not always easy to isolate its effects would be achieved by eliminating whales on yields since the stress takes many and other animals that compete -with forms, such as increased vulnerability to human beings for this fbtd supply. To disease. regulate harvesting by specifying maxi- - All too often there appears to be oper- mum sustainable yield fbr both prey anal ating what might he described as an

95 1 AtarnimningIl'orhf heire:% t 8/ )

.. . overfishin:g syndrome. Once the catch of the reverse is trite).. Other-species, breed a fishery begins to decline, those direc ON' inthe esutaf itself. But perhaps even dependent on its yield begin to suffer more important-, the sheltered waters of financially, making responsible .atitho,ri. estuaries scrve as nurseries for young ties icluctant ttt interyem... and resteto fish. If they are altered iii vays that make the (AO still further. In an c-ffm tto them onsuitable for spawning and for maintain their cat( b, fishers dejMete,,,the sustaining a rich range of aquatic life, the dwindling stocks even further, which can quantity and diversity of marine pitmen' push the resource past itsbreakingpoilat suppinl will be reduced accordingly." : and leadto .atotal -collapse. ilium res- the complex mutual dependence of trict ions -are, precisely what is needed if peoPle and estuariesis expanding 7ts thesesourre is to be..saved. populatimv and- economies grow. As the 'lite risk issoelated. with severe _lock using dernapd for basic foodstuffs and

,depleticIn :is.. that there is,' no as.sturance Ubel-leads to more bunt clearing, there the stock*will replenisIbthemsel 'ies.' Uhe is more soil. crostini, and iente heavier (011,101.-01iihe fish.eries listed earlier and flows of/silt into estuaries. The clearing the restiltiog 0annuoVieduction- of the of land, for constructivn of homes, facto-, seafood harven by c;onfe I I Million tons ries, and highways also adds pressure. 0 represent .0(°silt: loss front Jhe'marine Muchof the soil is carried to the inooths resource base, one that exceeds the tonof rivers and stri.ams, wherp*it muddies nage prothiced by li§b farmers by a sub- the?' water kind reduces the amount of stantial margin. Occurring ata time sunlight reaching submerged aquatic when the world demand for protein is wgetation. As this dwindles, the food. increasing steadily, it makes future rises supply for many aquatic organisms is rein seafood ph( es almifs( inevitable. duced. Increased flows of plant nutrients are also damaging estuaties. A sevenfold"M- crease in world, chemical kittllizeAr ttsc SinCC95(),oa dmabling ofhormap sewage THREATENED ESTUARIES during the ,same pericid,:and-the switch tosynthtitiC detergent's are'all!contribut;- Estuaries. play .aroleinthatearth's yrrg the .overloack 91.nutrjents'(iti-es- - aquatic food system that is far out of pro- uaries, whiai nkturn multiplies thk algal portion to their size. Defined as that part sina scale that alters the mariire , of theaquaticenvironme it "where tile . .envirmmatent, As., the greatly increased (low of the river meets thflood (theimirribeys itf alga.e dte and settle to the tide," an estuary is an inter nediate rot ; bottom. their &Composition uhsorhs between the inland world orest' water the.5 dmsolved oxygen from the water---- and the salt-water oceans thatcovet' vxygen that fish and other aquatic ani- most of the earth. Inas re9nire to survive. kieyorni a certain Most fish spawn either on the conti- point, fish are actually Aphyxiated. nenlal shelf orincoastalestuaries. Another source of estuaritte stress is

animals such as oysters, clams, Aquatic the influx of toxic materials front Indus- and bay scallops spend their entire lives try and agriculture. Synthetic chemicals ink-salaries. These areas are also part of and heavyonelals can int erfere?.with the the migration route for anadrontous riyprounctive, processes of aquatic' organ- species (those that spawu in fresh water isms and reduce the habitability -of bt t spend most of their lives at Ica,such environments .they coneaminate. NM in- salnion and striped bass, and th cata- freqnently, they render seafood Medi- (frontons species midi as eels (figwhich -Me,

4 (82) gate of theWorld-1985 There are literally thotisalads ofs- Million made& Where the tvorld's rivers meetis PJunds oceans but a relatively small number C- 100 C91,Mt for most of the spawning Acti ity. EIM; Minolta, The principal breeding area for the ;w- .%f in, Firherits Service an coast of the United States, fore ample, is the Chesapeake *Bay, a 200-mile- 50 long body of water formed by the retreat of glaciers arid the subsequent rise in sea level' that inundated the .lower Sue.- quehanna River Valley some 15;000 years ago. Sometimes referred to 10 a -"protein 0.00 1930 1960 1990 factory," this rich estuary is losing its Figure 4-2. Chesapeake Hay Oyster Catch, pl-Oductivity. Mindling ,stooks of key 1900-83 ... . -species that contribute to the Bay's rich Another principal conclusion of the harvest have raised concer n. about its U.S. Government's study was that Otte continued ability to ,supply fish, oysters, number of blue algal blooms in the and crabs as abundantl3Las in the past. upper Bay had Increased roughly 250- These clear signs of deterioration led fold since the fifties, leaving large areas the U.S. Government in the mid-seven- without any dissolved oxygen. These- ties to launch the most exhaustive study ever undertaken of a major estuary. changes in the Bay's chemistry have After several -years and the expenditure steadily reduced the harvest of prized of some $27 million, the study con- species such as shad, oysters, and striped clucred that the Bay was indeed-deteri- bass (locally known as rockfish)." The population of menhaden, which feed on orating,thatthedeteriorationwas human in origin, and that all the causes the algal blooms, increased, but unfortu- could be remedied with the cooperation nately this is an inedible, low-valu 1st) of thethreestatesresponsiblefor used largely for fish, meal. In the late managing the BaYs watershed. :Al- nineteenth century the Bay each year though some 150 rivers'and screams flow yielded over 100 million pounds of into the Chesapeake, just. 8 account for shucked oyster meat. By the early eight- 90 percent of the .fresh water entering ies the annual harvest had 'fallen below the Bay and the Susquehanna alone ac- 30 million pounds. (See Figure 4-2.) The counts for close to half the total" decline in the catch of shad was equably One of the most obvious alterations in precipitous, falling from more than 17 the Chesapeake is the extensive' loss of million pounds per year around the..turn submerged aquatic vegetation as sus- of the century to less t.han 2 million pended sediment, particularly in the pounds in the early eighties. (See Figure upper reaches of the Bay, buijt up. This 4-3.) . decline, under way since the sixties; ac- A similar situation with striped Bass-- celeratedduringtheseventiesand nearly a 90_,percent drop in the catch affected all types of vegetation. The Vir- over the last decadeand an even more ginia -Institute of Marine Science con- alarming decline in stocks dr this fish, cluded in a 20-year study of the Chesa- prized by chefs and recreational fiShers peake's vegetation that "this estuarine alike, led the U.S. ,Congress in 1984 to system has Been undergoing an environ- consider legislationthat would .ban mental stress of major propoflions."24, fishingforstripersaltogetheruntil. Maintaining War/c/ Fisheries (83) Million from the use of fossil fuels toward much enunds heaier'investinents in energy efficiency 3 am( the,useof renewable energy Sourcr5: EPA; National sources. MarineFhherie.i Servier Estuaries in industrial countries are 10 not the only ones adversely affected. Re- searchers at Istanbul's Technical Uni- versity on Turkey's Golden Horna small estuary literally within the City of Istanbul that is fed' by two small rivers, I the Abbey and .Kagithanehave pro- nounced the estuary dead. Not only are . 1960 19 )0 1900 1930 1 there no living organisms in the Golden Figure 4-S, Chesapeake Bay Shald Catch, 1900-82 Horn but the 'researchers fear that as stocks recovered. Although the act dd sewage, silt, and industrial wastes con- not pass, the state of Ma la d in late tinue to flow into the area, the Bosporus 1984banned, all fishink for ed bass, Straits and the Marmara Sea may evetuu. including that for sport, for up to four ally deteriorate as well.26 2 Changes in estuaries such as the Ches; years beginning in 1085.26 apeaka .Bay or Turkey's Golden Horn Restoring the Bay will require an ex- are undoubtedly occurring in varying penditure of roughly $1 billion by the degrees throughout the world. The states of Maryland, Pennsylvania, and threat elsewhere haS received far coo lit- Virginia. Land use planning and the tle attention to date. But the extent of adoption of practices to control soil cro- the daMage in the CheSapeake, now so sion%rill be needed to reduce the influx thoroughly docurnented, may get scien- of both silt and agricultural chemicals. tists atid governments in other areas to Sujngent controls on industrial and mu- focus on these invaluable resources. In- nigpal waste dischal-ge are equally nec- formation gathered from the detailed essary." study of the Bay can be used to design .-Since the findings of the government research programs for other estuaries study were published in 1983, another and shape responses needed to restore threat Iiis come to light: the rising acid- these waters to health. ity of the wator in the streams that feed the Bay. A scientific team from the Smithsonian Institution has been analyzing the Rhode River Ottershed, orie of the smaller rivers that feeds into the FISH FARMING Chesapeake. They report that betWeeif 1972 and 1978 the pH level fell from 6.3 Fish fanning is not a new concept. In to 5.8Scientists regularly detect strong China, where it may have-originated as acid pulses in t'he streams following long as 4,000 years ago, the domestica- heavy rains. There is some doubt about tion of fish followt1 closely after that of whether the larval young of freshwater livestock. Althoughfish,. farming, or spawners such as. striped bass or perch aquaculture '(which akso includes sea- could sUrviye under these acidic condi- weed in some countries), has been prac- dons.26 if this is the.case, then saving the ticed for at least a few millennia and in Chesapeake Bay may be yet another rea- scores oilcountries,world output totals son to reorient U.S. energy policies away just 9 million tons, roughly one seventh t. *4 (84) ,Statr of the Work( ----1985

of the oceanic catch.", , tons, is far and'away the worldleader. Over the past decade and a halt, how- (Sec Table 4;4.).-Thil total tpnsists of ever, aquaculture's potential has been 800,000 tons olfitifish, 1.8 million tons considered brnational economic policy- orshelllish, and 1.4 million tons of sea- makers, international aid agencies, farm- weech japan rank4 liecond, \vitt, about a ers, and corporate investors. Two re- millionons---,rougt\lyne third each source-related developments. are Wish, shellfish,:and sea seed. Given the responsible:: theincreasinglyevident rapid strides in CVS. fish farming during limns to the yield of 'natural oceanic and theearls'eiglities,a 1985 survey is likely freshwaler fish stocks, and the depletion of oil reserves and associated rise in to show the UniteOtaies moving into price of the liquid fuels so essential to the top tali .aquacultt,rraRkoducers. The distapat-water fisheries. These pressures, ocintinental distibution of worldaqua- M conjunction with the establisiment of cultural output is highly uneven, with 200,mile offshore Exclusive' Economic Asia accounting, for over h4' the total, Zones by more than 100 countries, have ans( Europ'e and N.orth Amen a ranking drawn attention to fish farthing as an al- a distant second and third. In i`nost of ternative source of protein. Latin ;Arrierica. fish,farming is still in an embuybnic stake. In Africa; it is just starting.. 1 Worldwide, aquaculture provides India's_ iliA ;farmers,: netting house. 800,000 tops of finfish per year, nar- roughly one sixth of the seafood I rt)VIY edge China 1hr world leadership in consumed directly. this particular catt;gory. (See Table 4-r . !. it,,,A, .- 'Table' 4-4. Apusfulturid Output, Incomplete data make it difficult to de- 4 Leading Cpttuttries, 1986 termine exactly how rapidly fish farming 4'' is expanding. 'Since fish are grown for 1 home consumption in backyard ponds Country Production by Third World villagers, there 'isno (inehric tons) market'point at which-to gather informa- China 4,012,102 tion, Difficulties in measurement closely Jaion 97'6,140 rasemble those-associated with trying to India' 848,973. .gauge output from 'home gardening or South Korea 481,480 fuelwood use, In addition, country data Soviet Union 340,000 sent to FAO, 'which compiles and pub- 285,50 figuires cin fisheries, often fail tp Indonesia 199,297 distinguishbetween "capture" fishefies' France 198,375 and fish farmink.And because" in sonic 194,4Q0 countries the industry A\telativgly new, Taiwan 183,673, there is no established data gathering system. This particular deficiency plagues All other 987,361 even statistically sophisticated countries- like the United States, where the yields: World 8,707,363 of new initiatives in catfish and crawfish; production are hard to document: souitcE Atitmcialltire Development and Coorclink: .don Progainme, did for Aquacultire Development China, with an estimated annual aqua' .the'MiniWorld (ROpc: Norwegin Agency for In-c. cultural output of just over 4ntillioi teriliti9nal Development, UNDI', and FAO, 1982). I MaintainingWorld FtsheM 1 (85) In both cases carp is the type of Titbit 44, AquacuItund Output By Tyie, finfish cultivated. In South Korea,seas LeadinK Countries, 1980 weed dominates the output, while Soviet fish farmers confilie their attention al-, Type Colltintry Production most entirely to finfish. In Europe, the (metric tons) main products are mussels and oysters. Thet Netherlands, for example, produces India 830.201 100,000 tons of mussels each year, China 813,320 enough to provide each of its citizens Soviet Union 340,000 ivith.10 kilograms. U.S. aquacitItural japan 9 '249.397 t, output is among the most diversified of Indonesia. 177,500 1. any country, including both omnivorous Philippines '151,612 species such as trout tend herbiorOus Taiwan '127,974 feeders such f catfish. In 1982,/catfish pangladesh 65,000 accounted for a good half of the U.S. United State; 55,646 aquacultural yield of10,000tons.3's.. Romania 41,325 Worldwide, aquacilittnreprovides roughly oneSixth of the seafood con- Shellfish 1,757,960 sumed directly. Of the total finfish out- St WI Korea 284.749 put of...some 37 million tons, an es- apan 298,231 1. timated four fifths is accounted for by France 173.000 Spain 170,000' carp, the' mainstay of both the Chinese ..1 and Indian aquacultural economies. In Thailand 111,673 both these countries,. the aquacultural Netherlands 98,489 sector provides, more than one fourth of United States 74,165 total fish consumption. In the Philip- Malaysia 63,412 pines it accounts for about one tenth Of Italy 49.764, the fish supply. In .the United States, nearly all the rainbOw' trout most of the CrustaceansIndonesia 21,797 (catfish and crawfish, and 40 percent of India 17,009 the oysters are harvested from fish Thailand 9,923 . farms.32 Taiwan 7,017. The vast- majority of the worlds aqua-' United Stater. 5,596 culturalists are also aglriculturalists.In part this is because aquaculturetequire:s Seaweea Chinq, 1,440,822 land and farmers own most of the area Japan 426,044 that is suitable. ,There are also mutual South Korea 195,663 efficiencies to be gained from the inte- Philippines 132,730 . gration of agricultural and aquacultural Taiwan 11,175 production. Many Third World farmers SOURCE: Aquaculture Development and Coordina- efficiently combine the prbduction of tion Programme. did for Aquaculture Development in thilithird World (Rome: Norwegian Agency for pigs or poultq,.particularly ducks, with tertintional Development, UNDP, and FAO, 1982). that o1 fish by using the animal waste to

fertilize the fish ponds. Such a system, a means that the feed consumed initially, stop there: Frequently when the fish by pigs or.-duacs yields much more .an . pond isdrained for harvesting, the trial protein in operations that also pro- sludge from its bottom is gathered and * duce fish than when the pigsor 'tucks arq spread on adjacent fielqs as organic fer- growti in isblation. But the gains do not tilizer.34

4,4 !86) .Stale of the .1985 Another form of agricultural/aqua- products, tistially.in pellets, the output - cultural integration ihvolves land use ro- increases severalfold.. tf. the grain is sup,- tation between the two activities. In the plemented--?with higli-qualityprotein, southern United States, for example, such as s(i) meal or fishmeal from less 5' catfish farmers frequently alternate be-,valuable fiAlt-the yirld per hectare then tween ir crop of catfish and one of soy- jumps to thrce tons or more WI- both beans. This (ins the pto5luction costs of carp-atA catfish. Virtually all commercial soybeans since the nutrient -rich residue etatfish farmers in the United,States now on the land alter a year of intensive use these high- quality supplements. catfish'farmingsubstantiallyreduceks Another ftechniqlte used to maximi)!e outlays for chemi/al fertilizer,3 output is Called polyculture---the.cultiva- A variation of this approach is prac- tion of seral fish that have different ticed by crawfish producers in Lor4siana flood habits. Chinese fish farmers com- andTexas.Sincethehabivorous qnonly combine grass carp that feed on crawfish frequently feed on rice, straw and since land that call be floOded to grass and other vegetation, silver carp produce rice can also be flooded to pro- that need phytoplankuln, bighead carp duce crawfish, farmers commonly plant that eat tooplankton, and cotnmpon cqp yrice on the larid from March to Angust. that feed on insects. Israeli fish cultural- After this is. harvested the rO:e paddy istS-have also adopted this system, grow- is again tilled .)yith 'water and stocked ing common carp, silver carp, and mullet with crawfish that-feed on, the rive stub- 'togalter,acombinationthatyields ble." roughly 30 percent more than does any Traditional aquatuktule,like' tradi,, single species. In the United States, re- tional agriculture, is al extensive activity search at Auburn Universityfoutal that a using relativay large a outs of land combination Of channel cittlish and hy- and water and little in th %way of addi- WA buffalo fish vieldeV,200 kilograms tional etierw inputs. In& fish fgirtri, crs have usually done lin e more than Table 4-6. Annual Fish Farming Yitlds of Common Carp and Channel Catfish With stock fish in confined are .IloWey.er, as ti demand for marine pe n has driven Varying Intensity of Cultivation prices upward and as amas become scarce,--aqualhilture has ontb.-ked on a Common Channel Car0 Catfish path remarkably .similar to that of.agri- , ctrlture. Normally this has involved fer- (kilograms Per tilizing tlif ponds in some way, Wing or- hectarek ganic waste or chemical fertilizer, but Fertilized ponds 390. 370 more recently it has evolved into the di- r feeding of fish with balatAd ra: Feeding grain or 1,530 Lions, including high protein concen- , grain by-products trates,similartothose' usedwith livegtock and poultry. Feeditig grain plus 3,300 3,000 Data for both carp and caqish indicate high- quality ' similar responses to the varying inputs protein sup- ht used. For example, when ponds are plement feedsi regularly.fertilized, carp yield 390 kilograms per hectare per .year. (See Table iCtiniiionly fish meal Iron) trash fish ()rip meat,. dd 4-6.) Under, the same .regime channel. souRcF.: R.T. R.O.Smitherson, and E.W. catfish produce 370.Rilog per hect- Shell, "Progress and Prospectl of Fish Farming," are. When fish are fed m Olin) by-, ut ,Ves'. Protein rofiL,. 3.

se. t iWaintaining (87) Table 4-7. Efficiency of Grain Conversion sippi Valley is one of the .world's aqua- to Meat by Various Animals ,piltural nieces,' stories. As ,the efficiency of production has ikreased, catfish have Grain/Meat- evolved: into a widely consumed food Conwrsion Ratio item, much as poultry did a generation Bret cattle iri!:feedlot ,7.5 to 1' ago when advances"in the industry transformed chicken from a luxury food for Pigs 3.25 to Sunday dinner toa daily fare. Although 'there are considerable be- Chicki-n 2.25. to 1 nefits ,to be gained from combining fish farming- with that of crops and livestock,

Rainbow trout 1.5 toI fish an also i5c. taiined on a small scale wherever t4 physicalresourcesare souace: Hans Ackefors and Carl-Gustaf 8.oscii, t "Farming Aquatic Animals,'' Atribu?Vol. 8,-No. 4, available. Tine most, basic need is land 1979. ki: that can be used for a pond,-preferably over. soil with- sufficient, cla? to hold - A , perhectare, an increase of 50 percent water. Fish farmers also need a source of over .the 2,800 kilograms per hectors. water and ionic sourcp of feed, which can from the catfish alone.," I range from naturaq ocwrring plant One of the attractions of fish farming growth in the pond to animal manures or is the high efficiency with which fish con- grain products eith high protein supple- vert vegetable matter to meat. Beef cat- ments. Fish farms vary in size from geyeral tle in American feedlots requiile roughly . 7 pounds of grain to produce a pound of . square meters to hundreds of hectares. meat. (See Tablf 4-7.) Pigs, by compari- The millions of fish krmers'in east Asian countries, such as China, the Philip- son, need 3.25 pounds of grain yieild . if pound of pork; broilers nee .25 Table 4-8. United States: Aqttacultural pounds for a pound of chickn., tfish, . Production of Catfish1970--83 ,by, conirast, require only 1.7 pounds of /grain to produce a pound of fish. Fish Year, Prodiktion are more efficiebt converters than farm- (metric tons) yard speciescfor two reasons. One, they 1970 2,600 are cold-blooded and thus do not need 1971 5,100

to consume large atribUnts of energy to 1972 . 8,300 maintain a hihjiand steady body temper- 1973 9,000 ature..And wo, because they live in the, 1974 7,700 water, fish do not require much energy_ -for locomotion: Together, these give 1975 7,300 fish a marked advantage in feedconva,- 1976 8,600 -0,sion, , 1977 10,000 )n the United States, where carp are 1978 13,700 considered too bony to bea prime table 1979 18,500 fish, _the channel catfish dominates, with output exceeding that of trout by a fac- 1980 ,21,100 tor of four in recent years. American 1981 27,500 catfish output, less than 3,000 tons as 1982 45,200 recently as 1970, reached 62,400 tons in 1983 62,400 4903. (See Table 4-8.) The rapid grow,th SOURCE: Paul Hutt, U.S. Department of Agricul- in catfisterarmifig in the lower. Missis- ture, private communication, April 4, 1984. ; p

(88) State of the kork1-1985 r pines, and Indonesia, typically have less flbgerlings. As scientific advances in than I hectare each. Catfish producers aquaculture unfold, countless new -op- in Mississippi usually average more than portunities will undoubtedly develop. 50 hectares per farm. The national area That fish farming is destined to ex- varies widely, from China's 749,000 hect- pand seems clear. Ho .y fast it will do so ares to the relative newcomer the United is less certain. It is a form of animal hus- States, which has roughly 100,000 hect- bandry and as such must compete witty ares devoted to fish production. Ip Mis- the production% -oft beef, pork, poultry, sissippi, which dominates,the U.S.U pro- eggs, and milk fortheuse of land, water, duction of catfish, farmers used some labor,fertilizer, and feedstuffs.Fish 26,500 hectaresjust over 1.00 square farming will succeed only in those situa- milesfor catfish ponds in 1983.37 tionsgwhere it can _compete with these The ability of fish (arming to satisfy other forms of food production. But in a 'animal protein needs at a low cost de- world where pressure on .resources is pends in large part on the development mounting, aquaculture should also be" of species that feed 16w in the aquatic seen as means of tapping soiiie currentI t' food chaini Recognizing this, the re- unused resources. Foyexample, fish rali search program atthe International. be farmed .on 'land that is not Center for Living Aquatic. Resources,suitable for cropiproductign. To the ex- ManagementinthePhilippineshas tent thatfish farming uses such refocused its efforts on species such as sources or is integicated with livestock or tilapia, carp, m llets,milkfish, clams, crop production to the mutual benefit of and oysters 1species that feed on both, it is bound to expand more rapidly. aquatic vegeta ion. Over the long term Itis also a way of converting organic .the future of tropical aquaculture ap-4.,....p,waste directly into animal protein. And it pears to reside in 'these species. even creates additional jobs. . One of the constraints on aquacultural growth is land availability. A World Bank Aracultural 'expansion faces the fisheries study observes that some coun, same land, water, and energy con- tries, such as China, have only a modest straints that agriculture does. potehtial for additional expansion. Oth- ,ersthe Philippines, Thailand, or Sri Lanka, for - instance --can expand the area devoted to fish farming .several- The scientific base for a productive, fold.38 A's a general matter, aquacultural flourishing aquaculture does not yet expansion faces the same land, water, . exists for the systematic application of and energy constraints that agriculture science to the breeding, nutrition, dis- -does. ease control, ana rearing practices of Most of the projections of futute aqua- aquatic organisms, isstill in the early cultural output have proved to be e stages.In contrasttolivestock hus- ceedingly optimistic. In 1978, for exal bandry, which is Based on several species the Natival Academy of Sciences; n that were domesticated thousandsf the United States anticipated that worl years ago, many species of fish. have bee -toutput by The year 2000 would reach 50 artificially cultivated only within the las million tons, of which 1 million tons generation. Because marine biologists would be produced in the United States. have not been ableito get some commer- Given tht impressive U.S. progress since cial species toyepodute in captivity, fish then, this country may come close to the farmers are still largely dependent on million-ton figure, but growth rn this the gathering of eggs or the capture of field elsewhere is only a fraction of that

A 103 e

MainfainMX 1I-rorid Fisheriest t (8t ) projected in the Academy study.39 years it is at. sea, the pre j on Although fish farming is practiced forages on its Irwn,. many countries, it is still a fledgling Before the piodern er appar- dustry. Fqr most species, genetic im- ently'thrive°instreat rivers p ovementsthroughbreedingthat throughout the northern -hemisphere's would permit various specks to exploit higher latitudes. With -Modernization, the favorable conditions provided by howevet, their access to many streams aquaculture are still. in the early stage. and rivers was often blocked by dams, as Advances in disease control and in fish in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and in the nutrition are likely to be impressive in Baltic Sea. Son verssuch as the the years ahead. All tolditlooks as Thames 1 d, where the, salmon though growth in fish farming willcon- disappears in the nineteenth century-- tinue and probably accelerate as de- became. polluted that they were no , mands on the earth's food-producingre- longer habitable. In other instancesmer- sources intensify. ciless overfishing led to the salmon's de- ts. mise. 'hie combined result is that this popular seafoodsoul-ccdisappeared from many sites where it wasonce abun-

dant. ,. . SALMON RANCHING In the late twentieth centurya better understanding of the salmon's life cycle In fish ranching, as opposed to farming, alid_a strong commercial demand for fishare kept in captivity only. for the this tasty fish have led to the restocking early part of tit life. Anadromous fish of many streams. More than two centu-' (which spawin freshwater streams but ries have passed since the 1763 discov- spend most their lives in salt water) cry in Geilhany that salmon hggs could' with a strong homing instinct..are well be' fertilized in captivity. This, coupled suited for this type of aquacultile. Spe- with an aWareness*of the salmon's horn- cies such as salmon or ocean-gding trout ing instinct', set the stage for ,modern are hatched and confined untiltliey ranching. Salmon hatcheries,usually reach the' smolt stage (about twoyears publiclysupported,and commercial old), at which time they Are released for salmon ranching are both based on the their journey to the ocean, where they near-legendary homing instinct of this will stay until they are mature and return fish. Even when, released in an unnatural to spawn. setting, salmon. manage to find theirway Fish ranching differs from fish farming bade' some two to five later when in several ways. While farming involves it's lime to breed. many species,commercial fish, ranching ResearchersattheUniversityof has to date been broadly successful with Washirkton:s hatchery regularly ob- only one: salmon. This does not rule out serve ail§ genetically programmed be-

commercial possibilities with other spe- havior: *stead of coming back to big . cies, but thus far they have been ranched deep rivets such as th'e Sacramento, the on a limited scale. The second main differ Columbia, the Fraser and the 'Yukon, to erence lies in feeding. Whereas farmers which maw of-their relativesare 'accus- must proVide all, the food for the fish tomed, Chinooks returning Trom the sea they rears either, directly or indirectly, to their 'home' at the University must thisis not the case with salmon. Re- enter Puget Sound, turn left, enter the searchers estimate that only 1 'peecent of Lake 'Washington ship canal andpass a salmon's growth occurs while it is in a through the locks either with the ship hatchery. For the two, three, or four !piffle or by way of the fish ladder along 104 4 (90) State of the WorIA-1 905 1 Billion lease 6 billion smolts into the North Pa- Salmon cific. (See Figure 4-4.) In addition, Can-' 6 arealso,actively ada and Sweden 0 'Source: McNeil, engaged in salmon breeding.41 // Oceanus, Spring 1984 / ./ Japan apkars 'to have a substantial 4 lead over both the Sit Union and the / United States an the 'scale of its operation., (See Tible 4-9.) An estimated 90 2_ percent of th salmon that spawn in Jap- anese rivers and 'streams today originated in' that nation's hatcheries.;In-: deed,the number of salmon now breeding in these areas appears to far 1950 1960 1970 1900 19 )6 exceed the number that spawned there Figure 4-4. Release of Juvenile Salmon into the naturally prior to hut-111th interfefence.42 North Pacific,1950-80, With Projections to 1990 Both the Soviets and the Japanese the south bank. Then, after a three-and- sometimes 'practice what aptly a-half mile trip through the congested scribed as tetminal harvestg in addi- ijnaustrial area along the shores of Lake tion to the more conventional high-seas Union, tlkej must turn left again, climb a drift-net harvesting. Instead of catching small ladder and enter a collecting pond the salmon with boats they either place. on th& campus." Not only does this net across the *streams or in Some cases' unerring horning instinct ensure thlt,the simply net the fish by hand. If the proc- salmon return to their birthplace, it also essing factories are adjacent tothe hatcheries-Where the smolts are released, means they are exceedingly easy tohar- the salmon on their, return journey vest when they arrive." upstream are channeled into specially The only countries with extensive devised diversion chutes from which they salmon hatcheiiei and annual releases of are manually transferred to a convenr this fish are Japan, the Soviet Unign,,and belt that leads into the processing plant. the United States. Tie Japanese now re- The great attraction of salmon hatch- lease over a billion salmon smolts each ing and ranching is that the investment year in rivers and streams on the islands in feeding is limited to the one or two of Hokkaido and Honshu. Alper feeding Ir in the areas south of the Bering Sea, the Aleutian Islands, and the Gulf of Alaska, Table 4-9. Estimated HarvestFrond' the salmon return to the rivers where Salmon Ranching, By Country, 1984 they were released. In the fall of 1982, the Japaneseharvested28million Country Quantity salmonon'e" for every four Japanese. (metric tons) Soviet salmon ranchers are not far be-, Japan 108,000 hind: T.smolts released are expanding by roughly 100 million per year and the o'viet Union 6I,000 goal is to release 3 billion annually by the end of the century,' The Soviet United tales 21,000 salmon are released in. the many small sowtc0Worldivatch institute estimatps based on streams'of Sakhalin Island and ate Kam- data from William.). OreggpAqua-Foods, chatka peninsula. By 1990 the three Springfield, fare., private communication, October countries together are expecteh to re- 30, 1989. / 4, 14. , ,AlditiningWorld lithiries (91) seasons ittakes between the time of troduction of salmon into the southern hatching and the point when the tiny oceans where ,they do not naturally smolts are ready for their long feeding occur. Chinook salmon smolts from the migration to the sea. There is negol to' University of Washington stockwere invest in fishing trawlers or otherener- released in Chile in 1980. The percent- gy-consuming harvestingequipment. age that returned as adult (Chinooks two And, as noted earlier, the .salmoncon- years rater greatly -exceeded the expecta- sume only minute quantities of feed tions of the. marine. biologists conduct: this early Stake of life. ing the experiment. -Itis hoped that The Japanese, for example, calculate salmon released along the loutheni Chi- that for each kilogram of juvenile salmon lean coast will feed on theenormous released from- hatcheries they get 80 hocks of krill in the oceans around Ant- kilograms of mature salmon returning. arctica, converting what is nowa very Steady progresk in improving-the health low-value seafood source intoa much and vigor of thejuvenile salmon thatarc tastier, more widely demandedone. The t released tias raised the share returning success of this initial introduction into at maturity to over 2 percent at hatcher- the southern oceans has raised high ies in both Hokkaido and Honshu. In the hopes not only in Chile but in the Mal- natur I state, only an estimated' per- vinas (Falkland) Islands and New 'Zea- cent t e smolt return as adurts, for land as well.'16 ma gs can happen to the -small Norwegian scientists have also been salmowas they move toward the sea, in- highly succeesfitl at producing salmon cluding being eaten by larger fish. The 1 smolts, But Norway isfar from the percent rate of return is considered the salmon's natural feeding grounds and minimum -. for a commercially viable many salmon would probably be lost to ranching operation.43 the numerous North Atlantic fishing One concern that always follows the boats. So the Norwegians have optedto domestication or semidomestication of farm salmon father than ranch them. any species is the loss of genetic diver- Thus the salmon are fenced in, usually in sity. Some fishery experts in the United p -ns within natural enclosures such as States at least are worried about thispos- firds. In 1982, Norwegian salmon failm- sibility in hatchery-reared stocks gener- ers produced nearly J5,000 tons, many ally, ankspecifically in competition with of which were exported to foreignmar- native stocks.44 ket,. Given the favorable commercial ,For. salmon ranching to be an attrac- priospects,fNorway's producers hopeto live investment,i those who operate The boost output to 25,000 tons by 1985.47 hatcheries must ofcourse have exclusive Jn'Scotland, farmers grow salmon in authority to harvest the fish returningto\.,large floating cages usually located in them. In the °United States, three states sea lochs. For them, the disadvantages of Alaska, California, and.Oregonnow having to feed the fish throitghoutan permit this. In Alaska, for example, once entire life cycle ai'e offset brthe much the returning salmon enter the harvest lower rate of ldss of the newly hatched area they become the property of the f. fish. While Canada, France, and the So- corporation that released them. With viet Union are either experimenting with -this right assured, some 17 corporations salmon ranching in the North Atlanticor a are now engaged in salmon ranching in planning to do so, Norway and Scotland that state.° are apparently sticking with farmin.48 Success with salmon ranching in the Salmon ranching has made great northern hemisphere has led to the strides in recent years. The number of

4. 196 (93). State of the'World---.1 985 sinolts released from hatcheries pro.- that are nearer the toof theac(uatic rinses, to ovehaYe the number spawned food chain. As these are overfished, har- naturally. if the growth that has been vesting and production capacity is not under way since the early seventies ,con- ,usually left idle; it shifts to other, less tinues, the harve'st could eventually ex- desirable species. The Canadiiyi fisher- ceed the historic highs of a halicenti'y.ies minister described this process in ago. Marine biologist William J. McNeil, great detail in 1977 concerning that who has. worked with salmon for three country's fisheries: \"In a consistent pat- decades, believes that "salmon ranching tern, one stock after another has been represents a visible step in a transition fished down. In each case the sequence from a hunting to a farming economy in began withn explosive increase in the oceansJ49 liMiing effort t y overseas fleets, resulting first in a rapid increase in catch, but fol- ,t1 lowed invariabl}, by a drastic decline. At this point, the fleetstilted their attention to other fish 'orking their way lv FISHERY PROSPECTS throfigh the traditsal species to less desirable and therwe previously un- Substantial groWth in the world fish touched stock. And in the devastation of catch in the years ahead depends in part our Atlantic fisheries, Canada has been on whether now-depleted oceanic fisher- the loser from the outset."51 ies can recover. Of the 11 .fisheries that the FA() lists as severely depleted, only v the North Atlantic cod has partly recov- For the Third Worfd, th@ Exclusive ered. The most recent catch was 762,000 Economic Zones have helped offset- torl,s, roughly half the estimated poten- thetechnological advantagein tial; There is reason to doubt whether Some of the others will ever recover. The fishing that some larger industrial Alaska king crab fishery in the Bering countries enjOyed. Sea was closed in late 19g3, kr example, but marine biologists do not expect to learn before the end of this decade 4t the Perhaps the most important single de- earliest whether it will recover. velopment in oceanic fisheries overithe When thevastPeruvian .anchovy last decade has been some shift from dis- fishery collapsed, many thought its re- tant-waterfishing,frequentlyrepre- covery would be only a matter of time. sented by factory ships and their as- Unfortunately, more than a decade has sociated fleets, toward local fishing, as passed since its collapse but the ancho- more and more countries extend their vies have not returned in great numbers. Exclusive Economic Zone to. 200 miles Although the fishery has sustained a offshore. For the Third World, these catch of 1-3 million tons per year renew zones have helped offset the techno- cently, it is bin a shadow of its former logical advantage in fishing that some of self. A 1983 FAO assessment comments the larger industrial countries had en- that "the early recovery of the anchovy joyed in the competition for seafood fishery is only a very remote possibil- products. In looking at the future of oce- ity."50 anic fisheries, William Warner, author of The fish that tend to be depleted first Distant Water,observes that "the one aree higher value ones, the predatory constant, the one certainty, is that the species such as salmon, cod, and tuna ichest meadows of the seathe conti-

* i07

t MaintainingWorld'Fisheries nental shelf and slope waters ',that are tio by dams, and pollution were begin-, home to 85 percent of the world's har; nitig to take their toll. Between 1950 and vestable fishare now a staked plain. Al- 1970 the catch remained 'remarkably sta- most everywhere, moreover, the staked ble at this reduced level. Since 1970, lines that nations draw out 200 miles however, it has been moving.steadity up- fully encompass this plain. The fishing ward. Thsprincipal factor, in addition to commons of the oceans have bcen,en- quotas imposed on the catch, has been closed. ""With this enclosure, rAponsi; the enormous growth in the release of bilityfot managing and protecting salmon smolt into the North Pacific from fisheries has been fixed. Whether it will Japan, the Soviet Union, and the United be wisely discharged remains to be seen. . States.54 .. Any assesstnent of future prospects Although it has taken 45 years, exten- for the world fish catch must separate sive research, and substantial funds, the capture fishing and fish farming. While world is finally catching as many salmon the world is slowly recognizing that tie as it did in 1940. That is the good news. oceanic catch of economically useful fish The bad news is that world population may be very close to a sustainable maxi- has increased from 2.2 billion iii 1940 to mum, there are extensive opportunities 4.7 billion in 1984, thus reducing the for expanding fish farming, particularly where land and water resources are salmon catch per person by more than abundant. Even as a certain amount of half. Nonetheless this is progress: If the money is being withdrawn from distant- salmon fisheries had not been rebuilt, water oceanic fisheries, the funds spent the per capita catch today would be only on fish farming and nmehing are increas- a quarter of the 1940 level. ing. The rebound in the world salmon fishery during the seventies and early As'the scientific unklikpirings of fish .1* culture broaden, farmers, corporations, eighties is mirrored in the price of this governments, and intetnational devel- fish. From' 1967 to 1979, the U.S. pricp opment agencies are stepping up their of salmondriven. by rising incomes in- investment. in fish production. 11 is es- teracting- with slrt suppliesincreased timated, for example, that farmers in the a phenomenal sixId. (See Figure 4-6.) United States have invested some $400 As the catch has rebounded since the mid-seventies and as per capita income . million in catfish pro uctionfacilities. In developing count the *odd Bank, growtti/has slowed, salmon prices. have the Asian Developm it Bank, ancl the Million Inter-Ameriain Devtlo ment Bank are Salmon all increasing the farming share of their fishery sector loans." The recent spate of investment in salmon ranching by both governments and corporations is impressive and wel- come. A review of the salmon harvest ,over the past half-century shows the catch peaking in the late thirties, just be- Sour e: Canadian Depi. of fore World War IL when nearly 350 mil- Fisheries and Octqns lion salmon were harvested. (See figure 4-5.) During The next decade the harvest 193Q 1950. 1970 ' 1,990 fell to 170 million, less than half the ear- 'mire 4.5. Harvest of Salmon in the lier peak. Overfishing, stream obstruc- North Pacific, 1930.80 1

.>\,

(94 ) State df the World-1985 Index swine little of this seafood. 4 (1967,.1Q0) Even more formidable 'ob. atles con- 700 front efforts to expand worl .scbnsurnp- -4 4 tion. of krill, the small shrimplike s- taceans. that are concentrated in, vast stocks around Ankarctica.-41thotigh,they are not all that difficult to catch they are 300 costly -"toharvest'. becaliku theyare located_far from principal population. 'centers.. Caching a ton of -krill require Source: National Marine Fislurits &rola roughly a ton of Oil. Since it is not high-value seafoocfp'foduct,toth the en-

1967 1970s(1973. 1980 ;1905 ergy equation and economics of doing so are questionable.06 Figure 4-6. Index of U.S. Prices of Cod and Salmon, 1967-83 Beyond the poor economic; of catching krill there, is again a problem market- turned dOwnward, decli" by some 45 ing a fornj Ofintarine protein. for which percent between 1979 ait\er983,55 there is:Iiitkdetnand. Both the Soviet Analysts projecting a substantial con- Union and Jariliti, the leading harvesters tinuing growth of the world fish catch of krill, ,are finding it hard to make a toward the end of this century Cisually palatable product that is attractive to expect there will be widespread use of consumers. Unless this hurdle is over- currently underuti4ed species such as come the krill catch may never increase. squid and Antarctic krill. There is little ,fa ond current levels, let alone reach (motion that the stocks of these two spe- d* can `support ii--substantially larger ble 4 -10. World Catch of Squid, sustained catch. But biologically ade- 1970-82 qutatc stocks are only one of the condi- tionsti bepitisfied if the pro-, Year .Quantity jected increase in the world catch is to (thousand metric tons) materialize. ' 1970 932 A review of the world squid catch 910 shows considerable growth from 1970 1972 1,150 through 1979, from 932,000 to over 1.5 1973 1,076 million tOns. Since then, however, there 1974 1,074 'has been very little growth. (See-Table 4-10.) Squid are heavily consumed in 1975 1,18? only a few countries, such as Japan and 1976 L207 A those along the northern Mediterra- 1977 1,229 nean. One consequence is that squid 1978c 1,328 stOcksillare overfished near Japan and the 1979 1,513 east central Atlantic and Mediterranean. In other locations,_ stocks of this widely 1980 1.529 dispersed seklies have scarcely been 1981 1,354 touched. If squid is to contribute to a 1982 1,567. markedly larger end-of-century world SOURCE: United Nations Food and Agriculture Or- fish cluck a taste for it will have to be ganization.-Yearbook of Fishery Statistks (Rome: vari- developed among people who now con-- ous years). .11 ` MaintainingWorld Fisheries (95) the tens of millions o tons that some has worsened. At the same time that the enthusiastic marine biologists have pro-' Potomac River got cleaner is a result oS Jected. (See Talzle 4,11.) the stringentpollutipii controls, -the Another way tq, boost the world fish Chesapeake Hay into which it empties :catch would be to move down the oce- became far. worse. anic food chain. Rather than catching In loOking ahead, it' seems unlikely the predators at the top of the chain, thk the world fishcatch will grow such as salmon; the fishing inattstry dramatically or that the fall in per capita could harvest specks at intermediate fish conpmption ntnier way since 1970 levelsmembers of the herring family, `will be reversed. Any fikture growth in Yi for example. Although this is technically the catch is likely to be 'hard earned possible, the shift in consumer tastes it whether it comes from fish farming or would require would not come quickly from expanding the oceanic catch. All or easily. indicativraWThat the falling per capita Not all the factors influencing the fu- catch if the last 15 years willcontinua ture fish catch are within the control of ovc the next 15, further reducing ma- those responsible for managing fisher- ri protein consumption- per person. ies. Stocks of several species, such as the This brings us to the central issue of striped bass along the U.S. Atlantic my assessment of a food source! How Coast, are being reduced by pollution of ill the inability of The fish catch to ex- the estuaries in which they spawn. In- and apace with population affect nutri- creasingly,thesurvival ,of breeding ti n? A study on the Philippines by the stocks of many key fish will be deter- Intnational C nter[Ifor Living Aquatic mined by the local and national govern- Reso'ur anageinent reportsthat ments responsible for controlling pollu- "per capita fish consteription decreased tion. Although the Thames in the United 41 percent from 1970 to 1980. The gap - Kingdom and the Potomac in Washing- between supply and demand is generally ton,Ao.r example, are far cleaner today widening and prices seem to be moving than they were a decade or two ago, pot- upward in ti predictable but rather strik- Itttion in other key rivers and estuaries ing fashion. Many believe a nutritional crisis of serious proportions is enterg- ing."57 This precipitons decline reflects Table 4-11. World Catch O-K Antarctic not so much a dropioff in the catch as it Krill, 1974-82 does a decade of exceptionally rapid Year Quantity population growth, a decade when the number of Filipinos among whom the (thousand metric tons) fish catch had to be divided increased b' 1974 22'0 one third. 19'75 40 One of the most comprehensive as- 1976 3 sessments of the future .of fisheries was 1977 123 done by FAO and published in Agricul- 1978 143 ture: Toward 2.000. In projecting supply 1979 333 and demand for the end of this century, 1980 477 FAO analysts assumed that the demand 1981 448 for table fish will reach roughly 100 tril- 1982 530 lion tons. and that the demand torfn sonact: United Nations Food and Agriculture Or- and other nOnfood produtts will ganization, Yearboph of Fishery Statistics (Rome: vari- remain at least at '.the 20- million -ton ous years). level of recent years. Together these add

I .1 , V.

,(96) Slate of the World-1985 up to an end-of-century demand for fish century and in all probability beyond. of 120 million tons: On the supply side, This may be annoying for Westerncon- the outlook is not bright. Even withrea- sumers who consider salmon or Alaskan sonablyoptimistic ammptions,this King Crab legs podelicacy. But it will be U.N. organization does not think tat much more than annoytiqg cot th9se in catch will exceed 93 million tons, weR theThi(dWorld whose Avciihoods de- below the .projected demand. Theana- pend on fishing and for whom.fislijs.the lysts expect rising seafood prices will principal animal. source of protein. The choke off the excessive demand, bring- scenario isparticularly disturVng be-, ing it into balance with the muchmore cause, the projected pfice rises of vice' n- modest supply.58 based food resources closely para.l The bottom line of the FAO analysis is thcise for grain and other agriculturally rising fish prices through the rest of the based food staples.

+4. *

Protecting Forests

ft-m-1\4k Polliition A and Acid Rain r Sandra Postel

Over the past decade, scientists have damage remain circumstantial. Yet stud- amassed considerable evidence, that air ies of sick and dying trees in Europ)e.and pollutants, from the combustion of fossil North America make the connection im fuels, both oil and coal, and the smelting possible to ignore. of metallic ores are undermining sensi- Temperate forests bee a long history tive faests and soils. Damage to trees of stress and acidification, a history that from pollutants such. s gaseous sulfur provides a critical backdi-op for consid- dioxide aria ozone iswelldocumented. ering the new strains of air pollution and Recently, acid depositionmore com- acid rain, Since the end of the last tonti- monly called acid rainhas emerged as nental glaciation 10,000-15,000 years a growing threat to forests in sensitive ago, soils have slowly formed from the regions. Acid deposition refers to sulfur sterile layers of gravel, sand, and silt left and nitrogen oxides that are chemically by the retreating ice, Pioneering plants, transformed in the atmosphere and fall 'animals, and microorganisms aided this to earth. as acids in rain, snow, or fog, or. soil development, helping form an intri- as dVy acid-forming particles. Although cate cycle of nutrifrit uptake and release. this new hazard- of the industrial age is Death and decomposition of these in- known to have killed fish and plants in habitants, then as now, generated acids hundreds of lakes in Scandinavia and in the soil. Where acids developed faster eastern North America, its links to forest than other natural processes could neu- This chapter appeared as Warldwatch Paier 58, tralize' them, the soils gradually acidified, Air Adhaion, Acid Rain, and the Future of Forests. a process that continues today. (98) StairoftheiI :orltl 5 Centuries of human isand Abuse of'Izenry. "Waldsterben"-Aiterally fdrest forest ecosystems have Addedto this nat- datithhas.becomea household word. A ural acidification.' Manytemperate for- survey in the minima of1-1983 showed ests in Europe and North America arc that West Germanswere more con-. now recoyeribg !rout decades of intense ctrneci about the fate of their forests burning, grazing, and timber cutting. than about the 'Pershing missilesto ,.be The Spruce -fir forests of New England placed on their land later that yeat.2 and the Adirovdacks, forex_ample. had Scientists cannot vet fully explain how nearly all been clear-tut, for pulp by the thisforestdestructionisoccurring. early, twentieth century; I.cging wits .Weakened by air pollutants, acidic and often followed by :that . burning de- impoyerished sojls, or toxic metals,trees stroyed the forest floor. As these forests may Nkose their resistance toy natural recover, soil fOrmation processes natu- evats such as drnught, insect 'attack's, rally increase the soil's acidity.' and frost. In some cases the Pollutants alone may cause injury or sloskdowns in- growth. The methanisms are complex The atmosphere .receives aboutas and may take decades of additionalre- much sulfur &dm human activities search t(') understand completely. 'Bin as it does naturidly from oceans, theircumulativeefft..ctis becoming swamps, and volcanoes. frighteningly clear. ' A

Air pollutants and acids generated by industrial activities are now entering forests at an unprecedented scale and rate, THE PATHWAYSOF greatly adding to these stresses carried POLLUTION over from. the past.='Many forests in Europe and North America now receive ,Avariety of pollthants are implicated in as much as 30 times tnore acidity than the forest damage and growth slow- they would if rain.ondsnow were falling downs now occurring, .but mostcan be thro&gh a pristine s atmosphere.Acting traced back to sulfur and nitrogen oxides alone or together, several pollutants emitted during the burning of fossil including add-forming, sulfates. and ni- fuels and the smelting of metallicores. trates, gaseous sulltir dioxide, ozone, Coal and oil contain sulfur and.nitrogtm and heavy-metalsappear to place for- that are released into the atint+spkereas ests N.under severe stress. Needles and gaseous oxides during combustion. The leavesyellow and 'drop prematurely quantity of pollutants, emitted depends from branches, tree crownsprogres- °ION sulfur and nitrogen content of thi. sively thin, and, ultimately, trees die. -fuel. and, for .nitrogen oxides,on the Even_trees that show no visible sign of Vitikerature and efficiency of combus- damage may be declining in growth and tion. The sulfur content of coal, forex- productivity. ample, varies from less than 1percent to Although Atncticans must travelto as much as 6 puteent. As a result, taunt- isolated mountain peaks in the North- ing a metric ton of coal may release 3-60 east to see massive tree disease and kilograms of sulfur. Smelting,a process death, the loss of West Germany's wood- of separating a metal from itsore, also lands is now a potent political andemo- releases large amounts of sulfur, dioxide tional issue among that nation'sciti- into the atmosphere when theore con- 4r,

Protecting Forest4 from Air Pollutionand AcidRain (99) tains sullUr. Common metals such IA compounds are harder to estimate, but copper,nickel,lead,andzincare the ones from human sources also far smeltedlargelyfromsulfUr-bearing excec1those from natural sources in rocks.3 manindustrial areas. In the United Over the past centAry, fossil fuel and s,States, human sources are thought to ac- smelting emissions have Allered the count for 75-90 percent of nitrogen ox- chemistry of the atmosphere at .a rapid ideyin the air.4 pace. Today the atmosphere receives Fossil-fueled power plants, industrial about as much stilfur from human activi- boilers, and nonferrous smelters lead , tiesas it does naturally from oceans, the list of sulfur dioxide (S02) emitters. swamps, and Volcamoes--on the order of Therelvivecontributionof these 7g-100 milliott.tonsper year. Yet most->:_ources can' vary substantially in differ- of then emissions occur on just' 5 Perc._ ent countries. (See Table 5-1.) Electric cent of the earth's surface, primarily the-N,utilities account for two thirds of these industrial regions of Europe, eastern 'missions in the United States, forexam- Not tb America, rind East Asia. In these *, and in West Germany, they account areas, energy combustion and smelting for over half. In t ontrast,,Canadik's elec- acid 5-20 times more sulfur to the atmo- tric utilities contribute only 16 percent sphere than nature does. The smelter of of SO2 etnissions,.'while abou dozen the International Nickel Company near smelters emit nearly half. Motor vehicles Sudbury, Ontario, for example, annually add little to sulfur emissions, but their spews out more than twice as much st internal combustion engines ar# the big-' air as Mount Saint Helens disdiargc kest so rce of nitrogen oxides (NOx) ita during its recent most active year of vol- mostidustrial countries. In the United canic eruptions. Emissions of nitrogen State. ,,C.Inada, and West Germany, cars

Table 5-1. Su lfur Dioxide and Nitrogen Oxide.Emissions in Selected Cou riesi Sulfur Dioxide Nitrogen Oxide -Emissions United West United Weit and Sources. States Canada -Germany States Canada Germany (million metric tons/year) Total Emissions 24.1 4.77 3.54 19.3 1.83 St° (percent) Emissions by Sector 66 16 '56 29 13 31 Electric Utilities '- Homes, Businesses 3 4 13 4 5 5 Industries 22 32 28 22 20 19

th° Smelters, Misc. 6 45 1 1 . 'Transportation 3 3 44 45

Total 100 100 100, 100 100 11980 figures for United`States add Canada; 1978 for West Germany. touacts: U.S. and Canadian data frown Environment Ca nda, United States-Canada MemorandumofIntent on Tratabotindaty Air 'Pollution: Executive Summaries (Ottawa,anada: 1983); West German data from Federal Minister of the Interior,The Federal Governmentseply to the Interpellation oftheDeputies: Air Ninth:in, Mid Rain and Death of Forests," Bonn, August 25, 1982, translation from the German by U.S. Congressional Research Service, . ,t (10o) 'State of the World-1985 and snicks account foi roughly half of tons per year.They haye alsq,stabilized NOx emissions, while utilities generate a or declined. slightly in Euriflk though- third or lesvand industries about width. the levels vary frdm country, tocountry.8 Pollution front fossil fuel combustion Government. olicies have pa'/Ifar less dates back well..mkei a century; to the attetuioe to nitrogen oxides.This gas lildustrial Revolution. Coal bused to beat w,as not considcrpd as a great a health homes and lilel factories generated a hazard, and sinceitwas odorlessit pall of smoke 4ntltiaze tliot hung persis- catiskiilmuch less of a nuisance than sul- tently over cities in Europe and the fur,withits rotten egg smell. Uncoil.- United States. As. the number of facto.- trelled discharges from poweic, plants; ries and homes gtew, tfie.problon wors- and esrcially the burgeoning use of au- ened and many cities had to begin-con- tomobles in the latithree decades, 'set trolling urban smoke. But emissions of NOx on a rapidly rMniQpath. Nitrogen stint- and nitrogen oxides, attilrig with oxide missions are 'girder to estimate Other combustion pollutants, continued thhn sullurAioxide, since they are deter- to rise. Sulfur dioxide. entisyions began mined by factors otheii than just the ni- to 'increase. rapidly in Fluropb aft er I 950 trogen content of the fuel. But they Also when many countries turned to high-sul- are thought to have risen dramatically fur oil. By 1970, annual SO2 omissions over the last several decades, possibly had climbed to 50 millionsons two.-and- doubling in Europe be the late -- a-half times the level at tnd-reritury. fifties and early seventies. In West Ger- Similarly, SO2 emissions b6Sh the many, for example, NO emissions rose United States and Canada -(Ae by 40 by 50 percent between 19(6 and 1978. percent between the early- fifties hnd North A'tnerica shows si iilar trends: 'a-; Since the fillies nitrog-1. oxide emis- Severe pollution episbdes\-thal re- sionshave roughlyly oubled inthe, sulted in scores of deaths irt \Pottora, United States and tripled in Cattada.7 Pennsylvania, in 1948: London in. .1952: One consequence ill she drive to pu- and New York City in the early sixties rifyurbanair over thelastcouple.- drove home the hazards of polluted city decade* has been construction of tall air. Spurred by these threats to human smokestacks to better disperse pollu-

health, as well as by a rising tide orenyi- . tants intd the. atmosphere. Ttiese stacks ronmental awareness, many countries sent pollutants i-riveting hundreds of enactedpollutioncontrollawsthat .kilometersbeforereturningtothe mainly target'A sulfur dioxide and par- earth's land and waters, which may ex- ticulate concentrations in the air.',S02. plain how extensive fOrest declines can emissions were first reduced primarily be -unfolding far front- major industrial by switching from high - sulfur to lower- and. urban centers. The International sulfur fossil fuels. In the seventies, some Nicikel Company's 380-meter "super- countries began requiring new plants to stack,"for example, -.replaced ,three install equipment for removing sulfur di- shorter start'in1972. Measurements oxide from smokestack emissions. As a have since :.s. wnthat virtually all the result, the SO2 being added to the atmo- sulfur and 'OR percent of the heavy met- sphere in North America peaked in the als added to th0 atmosphere by this plAnt mid-sixties and' since thep has fallen by travel more than 60 kilometers from the 14 percent in the United States to about smelter.8 ' . 24 million tons per year. In Canada, sul- Unlike industrial emissions of carbon fur diOxide missions have dropped back dioxide, which accumulate in the atmo- to mid-fies' levels of about 4.8 million sphere, virttianyall The sulfur and nitro- ,

ar, 115 Protecting Wo*§ts front Air PQIIIition (bid Aciff Rath . gen ,oxides that go up eventually come thing less than 7 considered acidic. The dawn in one form or another. Some re- scale is logariptnic; a decrease of one turnessentially unchanged as gases. unit means a tenfold increase in acidity. Some are deposited in dry form on sur-` (Vinegar, with a pH of about 3, for exam- faces such as leaves and needles, where ple, is 100,000 times more acidic than reactions with mitre can form acids. baking soda, which has a pH of 8.) 1F4in 'The longer the oxides remain in the at- falling in preindustrial tunes is thought unosphere, the more likely dry are to to have been in the range of 5.6, slightly Undergo oxidation to sulfuric and nitric acidic from interactiolis with natural car- acid, the constituents of acid rain. Under bon dioxide in the atThosphere. Precipi- certain.conditions, some of the nitrogen tation M many indtfstrial regions is now oxides react with hydrocarbons to form, 10-30 nines more acidic than wouldhe ozone. Further complicating the matter, expectedin a,pollution-free atmo- ozone can in turn speed 'pp the transfor- sphere. mation of sulfur and nitrogen oxides t0 ,The precise mechanism by which acid acid-forming sulfates and nitrates.9 deposition may be damaging forests is In light of these interactions, trying to not known. Sulfates and nitrates raining single out one pollutant as tho cause for down as, acids have drastically 'different forest damage would be difficult. Trees effects on different forest stands, and in a given location can be affected,sirrinl- even on different tree species in the taneously by several pollutants in a vari- dale forest stand. Incoming acids affect ety of ways. Moreover, each pollutant ieractions between the soil and living may affect the formation and fate of oth- biomass of an ecosystem in complex and ers. If ozone helps form acid rain, trees varying ways. Soil structure and compo- dying primarily from acid rain are dying Wion, vegetation type, climate, and ele- indirectly and in part from o'zone. Re- yatio4 are only some of the natural decent publicity focused on acid rain has termining variables. Yet research over tended to ignore its'common origins and the last decade has uncovered some interactive effects with these other dam- common effects of acidity that point to aging pollutants, Divorcing acid rain several pathways by which acid deposi- from the complete pollution picture irk. tion can threaten forests. this way. could lead to.ineffective strate- Trees derive their niftrition priMarily gies to control it and, more importantly, from elements such as calcium, magne- may prevent other damaging pollutants sium, and potassium that are weathered such as ozone from getting the attention from minerals in the soil. Acid deposi- they deserve. jsloneiheless, acid deposi, tion adds to the soil hydrogen ions that tion is of special concern because of its displace .these irtiportant nutrients from pervasiVeness, its insidious ways of intheir sites, where they are bound to soil flicting damage and its potential long- particles. Soils with a pH of 5 or more term consequences. are seldom in danger since they have Although acid 'rain was recognized plentiful calcium carbonate (the con- over a century ago, Only in the last three stituents of lime) or silicates (which-have decades has .the phenomenon becorfie abundant calcium, potassium, and/or widespread. In broad areas of eastern magnesium) that effectively neutralize .North America'and northern and central the acid ions. But' soils with lower pH Europe, the annual pH of rain and snow levels have fewer of these buffering now averages between 4 and 4.6. The age Its, incoming adds leach calcium pH scale, commonly used to express and magnesium from them. Large areas acidity, ranges from 0 to 14, with any of thesotttheastern United States, of the

6 'I

( ro.2) Sink of theWorld-4 985 Appalachiagn, Adirondack, andiNew En- which is normally harmlessly hound in gland mount aid ranges, of the aanadian soilmineralsbecomes soluble and shield of eastern Canada, and of Scan- toxic. The.. fr& aluminum attacks the , dinavia, for example, are underlain by root system, makiug a tree less able to slightly acidic, poorly buffered soils that take up moisture and nutrients a.nd to are especially susceptible to this process. protect. itself from insect knacks and Although soil changes generally 'take is k place over a long period of time, studies droughts.trraee amounts of heavy metals can m Sweden suggest that substantial leach- alsonter the forest from the a_ tino- ing of nutrients from sensitive sod can, sphe Combustion of fossilfuels, occur in just a decade." sinelti ,the burning of leaded gasoline, anrefuse incineration are major sofirces o trace metals in the air. In the Of all the pathways by which air United Stes, field and laboratory re- pollutant4.canaffectforests, search at the University of Vermontsug- changes in the soil are the most gest that heavy metals and acid deposition act Aynerkistically on forest systems, foreboding. stunting the growth not only of trees, but of mosset, algae, nitrogen-fixing bacteria, and fungi that are essential toa Sulfates and nitrates, the other key forest's healthoBetween 1965 and 1980, constituents bf acid deposition along metal concentrations have markedly in- with hydrogen ions, can initially have a creased in the soils on Camels Hump, a fertilizing effect on many soils and for a site of massive spruce dieback in Ver- time may ',actually boost tree growth. mont's Green Mountains. Lead concen- Ferests in Scandinavia and portions of tration doubled, while that of copper West Germany seem to have shown thist, rose by 40 percent and zinc by 70 per- effect Yet this enhanced growth is short- cent. These metals are brought into the

lived, for eventual)), these "fertilizer" forest .with the rain and fog, which in the . supplies exceed the forests' capacity to Vermont mountain pealcS4me average use them. Sulfatf saturation usually pre- acidities 100 times greater. than "pure" tL. cedes' nitratesaturation,but excess rain. Researchers at the Oak Ridge Na- quantities of either or both simply pass tional Laboratory in Tennessee have through the soil, carrying- vital nutrients analyzed tree cores and found higher with' them. With forestprodUctivity metal concentrations in recently formed closely tied to nutrient availability, this wood. These cores, taken from southern leachink of soils by hydrogerf, sulfate, or Appalachian trees, showed concentra- nitrate ions eventually rediis forest tions of zinc, copper, chromium, and growth) 2 aluminum generally high enough to .be Research also has shown that heavy toxic. 14 metalseither mobilized' in the soil or Of all the pathways by which air pollu- introduced from the atmospheremay tants can affect forests, changes in the be involved in the forest damage now soil---=whether by nutrient !cacti ng, ac- occurring. Dr. Bernhard Ulrich, a soil 'cumulation of heavy metals, or iFobiliza- scientist who hasstudied damaged tion, of toxic aluminumare the most beech and spruce forests in the Soiling. fo'rebodirig.Insensitiveecosystems Plateau of West Germany for nearly two these changes may be irreversible, thlis decades, hypothesizes that as soils be- harming not only mature trees no come increasingly acidic, aluminum standing, but the seeds and seedli Protecting Forests from Air Pollution and And Itoitt (zo .3 ) that will become the forests of thnext darliage trees when concentrations of generation. Young trees in the be ch 100-200. micrograms per cubicmeter .forest studied by Dr. Ulrich in West Cc-- 1Ngt six to eight hoursa day for several many have great difficulty regeneiliting, clays. This is 'roughly two' to three times Apparently because of acidity inthe greater than natural background levels upper soil layers. The number of spruce on a typical summer day. In many rural and maple seedlings on CaurOls Iitimp ilk _ areas of Europe, average daily concen- Vermont has declined by about half over trations are regularly-in thisrange, and the last two decades, and the number of peak levels can be up to-10 tunes natural spruce seedlings in the higher elevations levels. (See Table 5-2.) Acute stress from- of New York's Whiteface Mountain has -these episodic. peaksmay worsen dam- dropped by 80 percent.' age c,ausedety high average concentra- Sulttir and nitrogen oxidegasses can tions. Siiino scientists. studying thepat- also 'enter trees directly through their tern of spruce anfir dieback in the leaves or needles, much as carbon diox- Black Forest andthestate of North ide is taken in for photosynthesis. These Rhine Westphalia contend thatozone is pollutants can -alter the trees' metabo- lis and ability to produce food, and Table 5-2. Summer Ozone thus its prodvi`vity and growth. For- Concentrations, Selected European

estry experts atthe 1982 Stockholm Countries 41 I Conference on Acidification of the Envi- ronment reported that tree fp-myth can Increase apparently slow when average yearly sul- Daily fur dioxide concentrations runas low as Average 25-50 micrograms per cubic meter, ley- Upper over ." els that prevail over large portions of Daily "Natural" Europe.16 For. comparison, the national Average Peak Levels' annual ambient air quality standard' for (micrograms per (percent) sulfur dioxide in the United States is 80 cubic meter) micrograms per 'cubic meter, and the Nether- European Economic Community (EEC) 80,130 500 180 standard is 80 -120. Thus air quality lev- lands els established to proteil human health West Ger-100-150400 -500 200 appear too lenient to protect the health mariy2 of forests. United 90-165200-500 2.14) Dry King- sulfate '.ando nitrateparticles dom deposited on moist foliagecan form acids that leach nutrients from_ leaves Belgium 300 and needles much as they jire leached France 70-120 160 from soils. West Germin scientists hai}e Norway \200-300 found magnesium and calcium deficien- 'The midpoint of the upper daily averagerange cies in the needles of decliningspruce is used for this calculation:. "natural"ozone concentration assumed to be 60 microgramsper cubic trees in the Black and Bavarian forests of meter.tDaily average figures for West Germany southern West Germany. 'They suggest are from the Black Forest; the peak values are fre- that acid deposition, aided byozone that quently recorded in rural areas. Peaks in Blakk For- first attacks the needle's outer surfaepis est typically are 110-180 micrograms per cubic meter. weakening trees through the foliageas S.OURCE: EnvironmentalResotrces Limited, Acid well as the soil." Rain: A Review of the Phenomen the EEC grid Ozone by itself has been found-. to Europe (London: Graham & 'Protean :td., 1983).

118 (104) State of the World-1985 \ ye an important factor, and possibly the now shows$ns of injury linkedto air leading anise there." pollutants. No nation has better du- ,,. No single hypothesis can account for menteci the destruction within itsor- the varying patterns of forest destruc- ders than West Germany, where fosts tion observed. A reasonable explanation cover 7.4 millioh hectaresroughly a for the decline on one site may, appear third of the nation's land area. Following infeasible for another. Although theseIanextensive survey, in 1982, the Federal complbcities frustrate the search for a Minister of Food, Agriculture and For- dear-cut cause and effect, they_are not , estry e 'mated that 8 percent of West surprising.Apart from their unique Germy's forested area was damaged. pathways of destruction, air pollutants Just a ear later, more thorough investi-. are most simply understood as a biologi- gation found damage on over 2.51nillion' cal stress. Just as stress, is manifest in hectares-34 percent of the nation's for- human beings differentlyfor example, ests. (See Table 5-3.) A third survey con- as ulcers or high Blood pressureair ducted in the summer of 1984 appar- pollution stress on trees shows up in a ently confirms that the destruction is variety of ways depending upon te tree worsening: Half the trees are reportedly species, soil type, and the sp cc pollu- damaged. Visible injury typically takes tants involved. Pollution-induced stress the form of yellowing and early loss of weakens a biological system and makes it needles, -defamed shoots, deteriorating more susceptible to harm from natural roots, a prhressive thinning of tree st9aSses. In the Appalachians, strong evi- crowns, and, in its severest stages, tree dEnce exists that the growth of trees has death. The symptoms appeal- on trees of become rnore closely tied to tempera- various ages and in forests of both single ture and rainfall over the past few and mixed species.2° decades, a sign of increased stress." The destruction appears worst in the Droughts may have triggered the fir die- heavily wooded West German states of back in West Germany in the late seven- Bavaria and Baderk,Wtirttemberg, home ties and the spruce decline on Camels of the famed Blac Torest. Nationwide, Hump in the wad-sixties. Insect infesta- the 1983 survey shed that threeVar- tions and root fungi have been linked to ters of the fir trees were affected, up forest damage in the United Stat6, and from- 60 percent in 1982. painage to Europe: Yet these natural factors alone spruce, the most important species for seem insufficient to explain the sus- the forest products industry, had risen tained patterns of dieback and decline. from 9 to 41 percent, and a similar in- Wheiher as a predisposing stress or a.-----tYvase was evident with pine. These pritnary cause, air pollutants appear to. three conifer .species, which together gure prominently. represent two thirds of West Germany's forests, are the most severely struck. But damage has also been found among hardwood species such as beech and oak. Since most. trees in the advanced THE SIGNS OF DESTRUCTION stages of decline are removed from the forest, more have been affected than 1,4 In just a few years, forest damage has even these alarming survey results indi- spread with frightening rapidity through cate. Dr. Georg KratAe of the Land Insti- portions of central Europe, Trees cover- tute for Pollution Control in Essen ing more than 5 million hectaresan stated in 1983 that "hardly anyone area nearly half the size of East Germany in Germany denies the great danger

is I

Prat (tin -hig) i-e..ctsrom Air Pollution an .1 Rain (r05) to forest' ecosystemS."21 sport c g owing evidence_ of un-, In neighboring -hosys, kfomir eced nt di f rest devastationcj-Anes- damage covers an estim ted hal ;Inilfitit timale400, hectares of forest are ...\hectares. Trees on. sole 200,000- hoc- affectecin Austria. Acute damage to t, res are believed to -bo severely darn-, pine t was found, in. areas of the r. a. ed, and dire on 40,000 hectares in Nether yin t spring of 1983, and c Erz MouAtains reportedly have died. pine ai d fir overwide area ine eas- --. cad and dying trees arelPlainly visible ern liar( ofthec lintryarertv losing northeast ofEmpi.ae in the Krokonose needles prematurely. Some 12percent National Park, which has 34,000 hect- .,of, .st. Germany§ forestsare believed to ares of forest, mostly, populated with be a ected, and specialists'in Romania spruce. Not only are the'Npruc.'.* dying, have noted that 564)00 of that nation's they reportedly stopped regenerating in 6.3 million hetigares of forests have been Are park's mineral soils severalyears damaged by industrial emissi nilIn ago. Further north, in Poland, another parts of Switzerland, 25 percent o the half-millionhectaresofforestare trees and 10 percent of the sprucere- affected. Researchers in Katoi6ce,near portedly have died withina year. Varjou, Krakow, say that fir trees arc deador accounts also claim that trees are suffer- dying on nearly 180,000 hectares and ing from air pollution in France, Italy, that spruce trees in areas around Rybnik the United Kingdom, and Yugoslavia.23 anc! Czestochowa, also in the industrial- In the late autumri of 1983, early signs ized southern region,are completely of tree injury began to emerge in north- gone. Environ ital suientists warn that ern Europe as well. Sweden, whose by 1990 as mat r as 3 million hectares of dying lakes first brought international forest may be lost if Poland proceeds attention to acid rain,now appears to with its present industrialization plans, have forest damage. Symptoms similar which call for increased burning of the to those of the declining forests ofcen- nation's high ulfur brown coals.22 tral Europe have been reported by pub- Forest ehage in other European lic and private foresters primarily in the cOuntries may not beas well docu- southern and western portions of the mented, but collectively theaccounts country. Spruce and pine show the most Table 5-3. West Germany: Forest Damage, 1982-83

Area Showing Damage Portion of Forest Affected

Species 1982 1983 1982 1V83 (thousandsof hectares) ti (percent) Spruce ?70 1,194 9 41 Fir 100 134 60 76 Pine 90 636 5 43 Beech 50 332 4 26 Oak 20 91 4 15 Others 32 158 4 17

Total 562 2,545 8 34 souRae: Der Bundesminister Fur Ernahrung, Landwirtschaft and Forsten, "NtuarttgeWaldschaden in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland," Bonn, Octobot. 1983.

120 I ( to6) 'Vale of the Work 1985 injury. Although official estimates of of the East, where field and laboratory damage are not yet available, early indi- studies have documented not only tree cations are that 10 percent of the timber disease alid, d5ath, but also sustained stock in certain regions may be affected. slowdowns in growth. From the Appala- hi southern Norway, spruce apparently chians of Virginia and West Virginia are also showing injury. And-a rare envi- northward,to the Green Mountains and ronmentalreportfromtW., eSoviet Whhe Mountains of New England, red Union's Communist Party pa er Pravda spruce is undergoing a serious dieback, recently revealed that vast areas of forest a progressive thinning from the outer are dying from air pollution near the au- tree crown inward. Damage is most se- tomobile-VrianuFacturing tattyof To- vere in the high-elevation forests of New gliatti, about 1;300 kilometers east of York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. By Moscow. According to Pravda, nearby the spring of 1984, researchers. had de- forests along the Volga River may soonertected serious spruce damage asfar resemble a wasteland." south as North Carolina's Mount Mitch- Unable to attribute this widespread ellthe highest peak in eastern North destructionto ,naturaleventsalone, Americaand treedeaths were ex- scientists turned their attention to air pected to be identified in other areas pollutants, primarily to sulfur dioxide soon thereafter. Because of high precipi- and the acids into which it transforms. tation rates and the ability of conifers to ..i Scientists surveying West Germany's intercept cloud moisture, many of these forests found that damage was gfeater high mountain receive three to on west-facing mountain slopes exposed four times moremore acid "deposition than to more rain and fog and thus probably thote at lower elevations, in addition, to more acid deposition. The needles of the soils of some of these forests have ailing conifers in portions of Bavaria shown a marked increase'in lead concen- near the Czechoslovakian border con- tration over the past two decades, be- tained more sulfur than those of healthy lieved to come almost entirely from the trees. Yet injured trees 'elsewhere have atmosphere.26 not shown this effect. Moreover, forests Detailed documentation of red spruce are suffering on both acidic and alkaline .decline has come from research on Cam- soils and in areas where atmospheric.els Hump in the Green Mountains . concentrations of sulfur dioxide are low. Vermont. There, with the benefit of two Consequently, attention is broadening detailed tree inventories spanning the to consideration of the combined effects period 1965-79, researchers have Nurid of gaseous sul id nitrogen oxides, that seedling production, tree density,- heavy metals, zone.2f and basal area have declined by about half. In 1979, over half the spruce on Camels Liump were dead. A 1982 survey According to Primda, nearby for- thrthighout the Appalachians has led re- llopg the Volga River may searchers to conclude that spruce are de- soon resemble a wasteland. clining over a wide area in a variety of 'forests. So far, no sucb clecline is evident in commerciallyvaluablkstands found at lower elevations' in northern New En- Although forest destruction of this gland and Canada. Yet in light of the same magnitude is iiot visible in North large wood-volume declines on Camels America, trees are suffering there as Hump since1965,botanistHubert well. In the United States, forest damage Vogclinann of the University of Ver- is most evident in the. mountain ranges mont warns that "if such losses in only a Protecting Fowls from" Air Pollution and AciddRain (pro ") few years are representative ofgeneral that 4-6 percent of these trees in higher, decline in forest productivity, theeco-, elevdtions died over a six-year period. nomic consequences for the luifiberin- Losses have been greater in the western dustry will be staggering."" part of the mountain ,range, which rep Studies On three varieties of pine in ceives more pollutiod. Moreover, the the New Jersey Pine Barrens provide the growth rings in ponderosa pinecores most convincing evidence to.-date the show that annual radiAl growth declined Acid deposition may reduce tree gli.roVa 38 percent over 1941-71 compared with- Analysis of tree rings shows that these 1910 --40, a decline attribut&I to the Ase nes have undergone a dramatic reducr in air pollutants. In areas recei\'ing The ion in annual growth over the past 25 highest acme doses, the markevable years, a pattern of decline not evident ume of 30 -year -.old pines declined by 8$ elsewhere in the 125-year tree ring re- percent. The researcher§i:anclvded that cord. Growth rates cokresponded closet, "this reduction in grow* alonewith air theaciditymeasured, inneart4b}) pollutant_ caused tree mortality,lombine streams, whith in turn is a good index of .to' limit productiori;ltimber iirthe San the acidity of rain, With other factors Bernardino Mounkins."*9 such as drought, fire, insect pests, and Sniihir damage fromozone appears to ozone apparently not responsible, acid be occurring' in the Appalachians. Esti- rain ernArged as a likely cause, There- mates, now are that 4-5 percent of the searched concludedthatnoother eastern white pines are dying in the events Or the trees' growth history are southern Appalachiaps and the Blue "as widespread, long-lasting, and severe Ridge Mouemiins and north into Penn-, in their effects."28, sylvania and,Ohio. Roth here and in the Although acid deposition's linkto tree San Bernardinos, damage is exacerltated injury isstill debated, scientists have by insects attacking trees that are weak- firmly documented . tree disease and ened by air pollutants. Along with tree death froth ozone and other pollutants mortality, studies of Appalachian pines in the 'family of "photochemical oxi- have also shoivn substantial growth. dants." Ozone forms from nitrogen ox- slowdowns.30 ides reacting with hydrocarbons (pro- High levels of ozone and othergase- duced mainly by automobile engines) in oupollutants. are also a problem in the presence of sunlight, Its formation some developing countries..Urban areas and concentrationAreoften closelyied situated in valleys surrounded by !noun, to weather patterns and geography::A tains, such as, Mexico City, Guatemala highly concentrated mass of pollutants City, and Caracas,. are becoming heavily mixing under sunny conditions is a ripe polluted from automobile emissions. setting for ozone's creation, Trees are dying' along heavily traveled Ozone has killed thousands of pine corridors in Mexico City,- anduncon- trees in the San Bernardino Mountains trolled burning of-leaded gasoline is Of'1 eaSt. of Los Angeles, California, a 'city increasing concern in Guatemala City now infamousforitsyellow-trown and Malaysia. In some of these regions, photochemical smog. Trot injury was unfortunately,governmentsareen- evident as early as mid-centuryAs air couraging 'polluting. industries; to .move pollutahis from the 'growing urban area to outlying areas or to build higher were carried east .by marine winds. As smokestacks preciselythestrategies pollution haworsened over the past. believed to have worsened acid rain in three decadeg losses of the stately pon- the rural areas of industrial countries," derosa and Jeffrey pines have increased 'Yellowing and early loss of needles, dramatically.Researchersdiscovered dieback of tree crowns, and ultimavtly (01) . State of the World-1985 tree death are obvious signs that forests c,the countries Of Western Europe harvest are suffering. And as ihdicated, measure- about half as much wood as Canada and ments of tree rings on wealttned trees the United States combined. Collectively have shown in man, cases that these visi- they agrount for 15 percent of the ble symptoms are accompanied by sub- world's industrial wood harvests, even stantial and sustainedreductionsin though they have o9ly 4 percent 6f its growth ratesrBut even more disturbing foftests," No' is that growth and productivity can be As with agricultural crop production, .declining in trees that show no visible the economic gains of intensive forestry symptoms at gall.Tree-ring measure- are made at the risk of greater vulnera- merits on tens of thousands of trees from bilityto Outside stresses, a vulnerabilivulnerability Maine to Alabama have shown growth obviously compounded if the specks rates 10-40 percent lower than expected being grown is sensitive to the stress. over IF last two or three Jecades. These Sinceplantedtreesarepurposely dor declin s are evident in atplf-dozen soft- managed and valued for timber produc- wood species, including 'some of great tion, damaim to thtm results in a direct commercial value in the southernUnited economic loss. With plantation forestry States. Having documented this "hidden and more-intensive forest management injury" for white pine growing in the Ap- becoming more common worldwide, palachians', researchers .at the Virginia both, the likelihood and potential eco- Polytechnic Institute and State Univer- nomic effects of forest damage are in- sity concludedthat it is "highly probable creasing. that growth loss in forOts shibjected to low-level and long -term exposures to air pollutants may be occurring unnoticed Foresters expect the death of the and/or unevaluated."32 younger trees to significantly dis- The ultimate severity and extent of Alta the wood market: tree damage throughout the world is an open and urgent question. As forests not yet showing injury remaiVexposed to West Gk.:,rniany'ss spruce and fir forests acid deposition and high pollutant con- are .typicallymitiaged in even-aged centrations for longer periods of time, stands, with trees harvested. at 80-130 the damage may well spread, Moreover, years of age. Although damage first ap, if growth slowdowns are occurring nn- peared on older trees, spince and fir of noticed, air pollutants may be quietly all ages are now affected. Foresters ex- undermining the productivity of large pect the death .of the younger trees, to areas of temperate forests. significantly disrupt the:wood market. In the summer of 1988'i when forest damage was still placed at 8 percent, the.re- ,- ported value of-the trees that had been lost was about $1.2 billion. Spread ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL equally over a10-year period, these losses ,translate into about- a 5 percent ec me in annua er pro uction, r Many of Europe's forests are intensively worth about $200 million per year.34 managed conifer stands that yield large With damage 160W reportedly coverink timber volumes from a comparatively half of West Germany's trees, the value

. small area. Although they have only one of this annual timber loss is bound to fifth the forested area of North America, rise. Protecting Forests from Air P011utionand Acid Rain (109) Because a growing portion 'ofthe of just a few speciesnotablyDouglas planned annual harvest inWest Ger- fir and ponderosa pine in theWest and many consists of dying trees, over the loblolly, longleaf, shortleaf,and slash next few years the harvestmay reach._pilies in the South. Between the mid-six- three times the normal level,and the Ms luta the late seventies, the dumping of valuable wood forest in- on the mar- dustry increased its annual plantingand ket will undoubtedly depresstimber direct-seeding of commercial siTecies prices. Even under the optimisticas- two-and-a-half times. TotalU.S. plant- sumption that the ongoing destruction ings in 1978 wereover tto0Ao hectares, ceases and that the damaged forests can a substantially greater area than isannu- be restored, future wood harvests wills ally planted for industrial wood likely be reduced in the as a result of the pre- tropics. Roughly 85 Orcent ofthe U.S. sent overcutting. Dr. H. Steinlin, Direc- softwood timl3sr harvest tor of the Institut fur LalCdesOlege comes from the at South and the Pacific coastarea. Yet be- Alberqudwigs University in Freiburg, cause' Pacific forest industrylands can- expects that from the late nineties into not, sustain current harvest levels, the the first quarter of thenext century, U.S. Forest Service projectsno increases West be less self-sufficient in softwood supplies there intimber as until "Well into the next century. Incontrast, supplies .. The economi and ecologicalreality from the South are expectedto rise by 'of these tree d athi hasled West Ger- nearly ,50 -percent by 2630, andtimber man forest researchers to visualizea very companies increasingly different forest in the future and are turning to to begin the South's favorable growingcondi- planning alternativemanagement strate- tions.37 ) gies. In Bavaria and other severely dam- Recent studies of southeastern for6t- aged areas, for example, soilsare being lands she a limed in an attempt substantial slowing of r to counteract acid- growth over the last decade-inthe. ity. But without plowing limeinto the South's two most importantspecies soila- prohibitively expensivetask for economically: loblolly and slash pine. such large areaSLmifteral soils cannot The reductions are evident throughouta be restored beyond the surface.This broad area of Alabama, Georgia,and strategy, therefore, is not an ultimateso- South Carolina. Whether acid rainor lution. Moreo4er: liming doesnothing other pollutantsare responsible is un- to reduce stress caused byozone and certain,Iet there is dearlycause for sus- gaseous sulfur dioxide. In a 1983 journal picion. Routchly ippercent of the annual pf Forestry editorial,a German professor forest growth in theeastern United of forest policy, the presidentof the Ger- States occurs in areas- of high sulfate man Forestry Aksociation, a Regensburg. depositionover 40kilogramsper forester, and a fortifier U. S. Fulbright hectare annually. Over 75percent grows Visitor, to West Germany joine,dto- incireas receiving annual sulfite doses gether to note that "air pollution of is now 20-40 kilograms per h'ectare.38 Soilsin the problem that concerns WestGetman many parts of the SOutheast are suscepti- foresters most. The .results of 200years ble to acidification, and aciddeposition, of forest managementseem to be extin- ma reduce soil fertilitto 1 II I guis a ewt die next 10 years.. tree produCtivity begms to decline. Ac O Only a few people think about:an all-too- cording to one 1983 study of theeco-. possible scenario: central Europewith- nomic effects of acid rain,a 5 percent out forests."" growth slowdown in southern softwoods In the United States, More thanhalf would translate into 'an annualloss of the .sawtimber comes from the harvests timber sufficientto build about one (rro) 'Slate of the World-1985

1 tenth of new U.S. homes each year. evidence exists of sloweit1 rowth due to Scientists have noted the "urgent" need pollution or acid deposition., to test managed forest species for sensi- Yet more than half of Canada's productive forest lies in the eastern part of the tivity to both nitric and sulfuric acids, 4, and that such tests must allow enough country, where precipitationis acidic time to measure effects that appear only and soils have WO buffering capacity. after several years or decades of expw- With 1 out of every 10 Canadian jobs suek3° Studies have alreadylinked dependent on the forest industry, and othne to reduced growth in several.pine with annual forest products valued at speCies. more tan $20 billion, Canadian officials These findings of pervasive growth are, understandably concernedabout slowdowns have greatly heightened com acid deposition's potential to damage cern in the U.S. forest productsindustry. their timber supply. According lo Dr. Until about mid-1984, concern over the Raymond BECIZI,XS of .Inviroinneift Can- possible effects of air pollutants or acid ada: "A reduction in tree productivity as rain had taken a back seat to such visible small as 1 percent or even .25 percent problems as infestations of spruce bud- per year would result in,a significant re- worm, pine beetles, and gypsy moths.. duction in total wood production if com- Yet the prospect of economic losses pounded over the life-span of a tree' from long-term growth reductions has Such a reduction could have serious im- led the industry to step up its research plications on the fibre supply aqd ecoL efforts. Acid rain and air pollutants are nomic well-being of the forest-hifsed in- among the factotis being studied, al- dustries."'t Dr. F. H. Bormann of Yale thoughtheindustrydoesnotfeel University adds, "The danger is that by enough is known about, the problem at the time a 15 to 20 percent loss in pro- this time to warrant costly pollution con- ductivityhas been documented degradal trolMeasures. Producing paper an tion will be irreversible."'y 'other forest products consumes large Canada already faces severe conse- amounts of energy, an0 additional pollu- quences from.lbrmer neglect of its for- tion controls for power and manufactur- ests. Poor management practices and ing plants would raise production costs. inattentionto regeneration have left Yet if the industry becomes convinced -Canada's tint erlands in a sorry state._ that acid rain or other pollutants are be- Hoping to ease this trendthe provinces hind even small dropoffs in_ forest proof Ontario and New Brunswick have es- ductivity, support for controls could tablished. tenure agreements with pri- follbw. Dr. Ely Gonick, senior vice- vate forestry .-colCipanies, encouraging president of International Paper, the na- them to invest in public forestland and tion's largest private- forestland holder, Thereby increase timber suppliei and fu- points out that paper 'mills are highly. ture yields. Dr. H. Krause, forest re- capital-intensive and thus are "captives sources professor at the University of .tif their geography. They depend on a New Brunswick, notes that improved very long and continuing supply of rea-: management practices in that province sonable cost wood to survive, economi- are _projected to eventually morethan cally. If acid rain damaged that supply, double its 'present yealy average Mere- I I I . timber growth, Yet he folloivs be lost."4° withanas-yet-unanswentblequery: In Canada, damage to vegetation sur- "Will this increased management input rounding sulfur-emitting smelters has be counteracted, in the future, by con- long been evident, but so far no firm tinuing acidic deposition?"43

41i 4

1, 5 Protecting Forests from Air Po lltition and And Rain )

Acid rain tends to be associated with searchers at theHubbardBrook the industrial world, but it has now b'een experimental forest in.the Whitc Moun- measured in man developing countries tains of New Hampshire found that as well. Large por6ons or Brazil, south- losses of calcium, potassium, and nitro- ern India, Southeast Asia, and eastern gen during the 10 years following an ex-. China are underlain by the type of soils i?crimental clear-cut of their hardwood most susceptible to acidificatitm. forest were, respectively, over 3, 7, and Threatening levels of soil acidity have lltimes_greater than in an adjacent.; reportedly been measured in some of uncut forest. For calcium and potassium, these areas." Trees are being planted.in the losses represented over half the these and other developing regions to amount stored in the forest ecosystem. meet not only growing industrial wood In whole-tree harvesting, the branches, demands, but critical needs for fuOlwood leaves, and twigs are" removed from the and charcoal. Yet the ambitious industri- forest along with the trunks. Leaves and alization plans of many of these coutt- twigs are especially rich' in nutrients, triesin whichfossilfuelstypically,/which, if left in the forest, would return figure prominentlyraise the possibility to the soil as the biomass .decomposed. of deposition eventually countering Cleat cutting combined with whole-tree sonic of the gains expected from planta- harvesting may export two to three times tion forestry. more nutrients from a forest than a One special concerti for Third World clear-cut where only the trunksare''- plantation forestry is the potential acid removed would. The Hubbard Brook re- rain has of inhibiting the functioning of searchers point out that it might take soil microorganisms. These minute crea- 60---80 years for their experimental hard- turesappear to play key roles in success- wood forest from which no wood was fully establishing tree plantations on de- cempved following the clear-cut, tie- graded lands, where much Third World turn to precutting conditions. Whole- planting is taking place. Nitrogen-fixing tree harvesting no doubt would,,post- bacteria, for example, are behind the pone recovery even further. Cutting *hardiness and partial nutrient self-st4- againbefore NH nutrientrecovery ciency of legumes, a family of trees would over -time probably degrade the creasingly chosen for ftiehvood planta- forest's productivity." tions.Thesebacteriaandother Unfortunately few studies have exam- importantmicroorganismsmay not ined the effects of acid deposition com- function as well under the altered soil bined with these intensive forestry prac- conditiIs brought abdut by acidifica- L.- 47 tkes. Yet taken together, they increase non, tin g large areas to monocul- the likelihood of long-term declines in ture plintations of fast-growing trees ap- forest productivity.,Scientistsatthe pears necessary to lessen the Third 1982.Stockhohneonference on acidifica- World's growing fuelwood crisis. Yet tion noted that "in areas of intense unless soils are protected from increased acidic deposition these (nutrient) Josses 1' acidification, vital wood supplies may di= added to those associated with logging, minish," particularly whole-ftee harvesting,may In addition to a worldwide growth' in jeopardizetheabilityto sustain. plantations, attempts to profitably in- yields."'? Dr. Gilles Robitaille, of Can- crease short-term wood production have ada's Laurentian Forest R6earch Cen- entailed a greater use -of intensive har- treemphatically,echoes this concern: vesting 'practices that may cause long- "We.ttrip cut, cut by diameter and clear- term declines in forest ,productivity.Rv- 4a. ,We recover the trunks, branches, (112) Stott of theWorld-1985 foliage, needleseverything, Nothing is ing iii central Europe could be the begin- left on tkie jpir9und to break down and ning of such a complete collapse on a improyc soil quality. Along conies the much broader scale. Even if 011ution re- acid rain which leaches the remaining mains at today's levels, forests and soils nutrients from the soil. What is lei to continually exposed to this degree of rtgenerate the forest ? "{" stress may in time lose their resistance. Beyond the ciircct economic 'losses in Moreover, long, before the ecosystem foresdandsitAensively managedor ceases to functi&n, other resources that rirketable timber, the changing etol... depend on a well-functioning fbrest will -' ogy of the natural forest system brought be affected. The consequences do not about by acid deposition and air pollu- stop at the edge of the woods; they rip- tion may have severe emsequences ple to groundwater, streams, and lakes well. From an ecological pOint of view, that receive acids and metals that break acid depf'isitiou and pollutants are rela- out of the forest cycle. Our intimate con- tively new stresses, and knowledge of nections to these forest systems ensures complex forest systems., is too limited to that we wilt hot escape feeling the effects predict how forests. ultimately will re- of their demise. spond to them. Yet scientists with the Norwegian Interdisciplinary Research Programme on Acid Precipitation conclude after eight years of study that in susceptible areas the issue seems to be "a question of proportion and time re CURBING FUTURE EMISSION quired rather than whether any ecologi- LEVELS cal effects appear or not."48 Coal is much more abundant than oil and will be the primary polluting foAil hie' in the decade ahead. About 660 No apparent resource constraint billion tons are now (ethnically and will by themsOves limit the dis- economicallyrecoyerable,whichat charge of sulfur and nitrogen ox- today's rates of production would last. ides in the foreseeable future. well over two centuries, compared with 4 roughly four decades for oil. Moreover, some 10 trillion tons' of coalequal to The world's fOrests are now the sub- more,than 800 times the world's annual jects of an ecological experimem of tin - use of energyare .known to' exist and precedented scale and untestable .,out- may ultimately be recovered.81 Thin, no come. Where pollutantsremainat apparent rescwrce constraints will by `'relatively low levels, many forest systems 'themselves limit the discharge of sulfur. will continue to absorb them without and nitrogen oxides in the foreseeable major damage to the soil, inicroorgant future. lEmission levels will depend on isms, or trees. Yet as chronic stress in- such factors as the rate of economic creases,ecologicaltheorypredicts growth, energy prices, the competitive- staged decline that in extreme cases ness of alternative energy sources, auto- could .end in complete ecosystem col- mobile use, and, of coase, pollution lapse, This has occurred aroundhigh - control measuresTMl factota quhjert to emissionsources .such as the smelters at much uncertainty. Yet current trend's Sudbury,Ontario,andCopperhill, suggest that atmospheric pollutants and Tentiessee.88 The forest decline spread- the acidity of precipitation will increase

4 127: eroiecting Forests froniAir 'Pollutionand Arid Rain (rr3) in much of the industrial and developing much sulfur dioxide as Canfidainis-,fr world. SiOnS in easternNorth America will re- Sulfur dioxideemissionsin North main high. America and the European Economic In contrast to these somewhat opti- Cbmmunity will not greatly increase mistic trends, SO2 emissions in the So- over their existing high levels, and in viet Union and Eastern Europe--already some countries they are likely to decline. among the most heavily polluted regions (See Table 5-4,) In the EEC, less use of in the worldare projected to rise by a fuel oil (with an avet:age sulfur content of third as a result of increased burning of 2.5 percent) and greater use of coal (with high - .sulfur coal and lignite.- By the year an average sulfur conterM of 1.5 percent) 2000;; Eastern E4ope'semissionsare will help keep 802 levels from rising.. expected to be double those of the More importantly, a majority of EEC United States. even though the region is member countries are now committed to only one seventh as large. As in the EEC, reducing their sulfur dioxide emissions the discharges could be less than pro- by 30 percent or more over the next de- jected if the Soviet Union, East Ger- cade. Assumipg they take action to fulfill many, and Bulgaria fulfill commitments their promises, the levels in Western tymde in 1984 to curbthem.52 Europe could substantially decrease. In Nitrogen oxides, on the other hand, North America, pollution tontrOls on are expected to rise nearly everywhere. new power plants in the United States In the European Community, NOx emis- and commitments by Canada to )halve sions, which are thought to have in- sulfur discharges should prevent SO2 creased 40-50 percent since the early emissions from rising very much. How- seventies, are projected to climb akother ever, without further reductions in the 5-21 percent before the century is out. United Stateswhich emits five times as (The range reflects different assump- .

Table 5-4,Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, 1980, With Projects for 2000 ..Sulkir Dioxide Nitrogen Oxides Country or Region '1980 2000' Change 1960 2000 Change. (million metric (percent) (million metric (percent) tons) tons) 4 United States 24.1 26.6 +10 19.3 2441 +25 Canada 4.8 4.5 5. 2.4 +33 EEC 18.6 19,0 +2 (12 11.1 +21, Soviet ,Union2 25.5 34.6. +36 Eastern Europe2 40.7 55.3 +36 'Projections do not-lake into account commitments made by more than a dozen nations in 1984 to reduce suit* Aioxide emissions. If acted upon, these comnfittnents would significantly reduce projected SO, emissions Crom every region except the United States and Eastern Europe.'Estimates are for 1982 and 2002; estimates for nitrogen oxide emissions not available or reliably estimated. sonactss: U.S. and Canadian data (ram Environint.nt Canada, United States-Canada Memorandum of Intent.on nauboundaty Air Pollution: Executive Summaries (Ottawa, Canada: 1983); EEC data fl-um Environmental III It ll It. Ltd., 1983), (2.5 percent growth scenario); Soviet Union and East Europe.data from N. FL 1- lighton and M.J.Chadwick,noEffects of Changing Patterns of Energy Use tri Sulfur Emissions and Depositions in Europe," Ambio,,Vol.. 11, No. 8, 1082. Y (714) State of thill'orld.1985 (ionsabouttherateof economic many of them. Precipitation acidity is not - growth.) ThN expectation is mainly at- widely monitored in developing coun- tributed to utilitieS burning leoil and tries, but rain with a p11 of 4.5 or below more coal, since coal combus ion viler- has beti Measured in cities in China and --aces more nitrogen oxides th n an equiv- India. Industrialization plans for many alent amount of oil combustion, andto of thc mast populous Third World counT the exeected increase in cars traveling tries call for vast increases in coal burn- EEC highways. In the abseme of addi- ing, followingessZ-ntially the same path tional controls in the United States, ni- taken by today's inclustrialiNd countries trogen oxide emissions Crop(' utilities early in the century. China'svimnual coal there have been projected to increase. 55 Output, for example, increased more percent. This.estimate assumes a higher. than 20 times between 1949 and 1982; growth in energy demand (Ian now and is now up io 666 million tons, almost seems likely, however, so actual NOx inas much as in the United States. If its creaseswillprobablybe somewhat plans to increase per capita energy con- lower. Canada's biggest increase will smuption are fulfilled, the nation will tle come from vehicles, whose emissions are burning some 900 million tom_ coal projectedtoriseby 50 percentto each year by the turn of the cc iry.64 roughly 1.7 million tons, or over 70 per- Similarly, Brazil's consnmtition of coal .cent of total NOx emissions. has been rising at an average rate of In most areas where acid rain is now a about 10 percent per year, and steel, ce- problem, sulfur dioxide is responsible ment, and paper companies are switch- for about 70 percent of the acidity and ing from oil to coal. India expects to in- nitrogen oxide for about 30 percent. crease coal productinn to S25 million (There Ire notable exceptions, such as tons by 199poughly 2.6 times greater areas in the Pacific and Rocky Mountain than 1982 levels. Sulfur dioxide emis- regions of the United States, where ni- sions from coal and oiLhave nearly tri- trogen oxides Contribute a much greater pled there since the -early sixties and share to precipitation acidity.)63 But the were estimated at 3.2 million tons in rapidly rising emissions of NOx and 1979slightly less than current emis- stead}, or declining addition of SO2 nig- sions, from West Germany. Dr. C.K. ,gest that in many areas nitrogen oxides Varshney of jawolharlal Nehru -Unkrer- will play an increasingly important role sity's School of Environmental Sciaces in the creation of acid rain over time. sees probletais from acid rain as "very Moicover, since chemical reactions in- much in the making in the country.. . xolving NOx lead to ozone, the levels oPThe current pace of development ,is ozone in areas conducive to its forma- bound to promote acidification of the tion will increase wt.-well. Given ozone's environment,"66 known toxicity to plants and trees, along Without efforts to brake These rising with evidence thatit helps form acid emisrsions around the world, destruction deposition ind may make trees more caused by acid rain .and air pollution two ,susceptible topcid deposition's effects, decades from now may dwarf that evi- ralucing nitrogen oxides should clearly dent today. Government policies are ig-

. be part of any control strategy to protect noring the fact that damage to forests, forests, soils, and lakes is an added cost of fossil Although estimates of future mkt fuel combustion that is not taken into

. : II readily availadbie, trends. suggest that air ciety is in effect subsidizidg pollution and acid" rain will. worsen in generated electricity, motor vehicle use,

I k Protecting Forests from Pollution and Acid- Rain 015) and metals production by allowing free many was the first to begin tackling this itse of the environment to absorb the politically difficult and more expensive resulting pollution. Such an "external- task.With heightened concern over ity," so called because the social costs spreading damage to the nation's for- are external to the private costs, means exsts, theWest German Bundestag a portion of the real cost of these activi- passed legislation thinly 1983 calling for tic\s' is hidden. Sing costs appear lower tight controls on the largest K50 of its than they really are, more of these activi- 1,500 existing plantsthose over 300 ties take place than is optimum for soci- megawatts." Although U.S. Congressio- ety, Where the environment can no nal committees have had before them longer assimilate. c9inbustion's pollu- some dozen proposals. to curb emissions tion,theseexternalcostsarc now from existing sources; political divisions becoming visible in the form of acidify- over the regional distribution of costs ing lakes and dying forests. and benefits from suCh measures have so Correcting this inherent market fail- far prevented their passage. ure requites that those fostering the pol- lutionbeginpayingforiteither through technological controls, entis- Destruction 'caused by acid rain ,sions taxes, sales taxes (for example on and air polintion two decades froth motor vehicles), or other means: Na- tional energy and environmental-strate- now may dwarf that evident today. gies are not adequately doing this, and they are insufficient to preve t air pollution and acid depositionamage froM Efforts to control nitrogen oxide emis- worsening in the 'future, only a handful sions also have far to go if existing levels otcountries now require pOwer plants to are even to be capped, let alone reduced. control sulfur dioxide emissions with Nitrogen oxides are harder to control effective technologies. The majority still than SO2 since they result not only from rely on low-sulfur fuels and dispersion nitrogen contained in the fuel, but also through tall smdkestacks to control pol- from thexidation of nitrogen present lution. The former will prove inadequate in the air. Both utilities and industries for the long term, and the latter only could hale NO emissions with com- transfers a portion of the pollution dam- bustionodifications costing roughly 1 age from urban to rural areas. percet of electricil generating costs. The United States, West Germany, So far, however, little attention has been I and the Netherlands are among the na- given to even these mildest controls. tions that have. taken some concrete ac- More stringent controls would require don in recent years. New power plants in technologies such as selective catalytic these countries are required to install reduction, which treats flue gases for ni- flue gas desulfurizatioN(FGD) equip- trogen oxides as scrubbers do for sulfur ment, often called "scrubbers," which is dioxides. These systems can reduce the most widely used technology for re- NO by 90 percent and typically cost 5-8 Owing sulfur dioxide. FCD redtices SO2 percent of generating costs, roughly half emissionsby 80,95 percent and typically as much as scrubbers." adds 10-15 percent to electricity genera- Japan stands alone in requiring that ting costs. Achieving substantial ..pollu7 'power plants substantially' reduce nitro-

ever, requiresthatthe.practices of primarily a response to the nation's existing plants be.,controlled. West Ger- health-threatening urban smog prdb-

, J (r161 Slateoftheflrorld-1985 lems. To meet the required 73 percent ducts. Because combustion is carried out NOx reduction, Japanese power plants at a lower temperature, nitrogen oxide usually must go beyond combustion emissions are 15,35 percent lower than modifications and apply selective cata, from a conventional boiler:" lytic reduction, which has barely been FBC is now being tried at some 30-40 tried elsewhere. Equipment to destilfu- plants in the Netherlands, Sweden, the ize fjue gases has been installed in over United States, and West Germany. Most a thoutand Japanese plants of various facilities usig it have capAcities of less sizes and typesunixs, industries, and than 40 megawatts (many are under 5 smelterscompared wiat most 200 ill_ mega'Watts), but several in West Ger- the United States. Mor over, the Japa- many have capacities of 100 megawatts nese plants use a regenerative 'system or more. Sweden's success with the tech- that yields m. a rketable.by-productsde- nology at a 15-megawatt plant has led it mental sulfur, sulfuric acid, or gypsum to consider building a 130-megawatt rather than the hundreds of thousands commercial -scalecombustor. Among° of tons of wet sludke produced annually the pilot plants in the United States isa from the "throwaway" desulfurization 20-megawatt plant in Kentucky that, process used in most U.S. plants. A under the direCtika2S,the Electric Power ready market for suit* materials initially Research Institute, is a prototype fora made this option especially attractive, 600-megawatt demonstration unit. Also, and with land for waste dism>sal ex-. a Minnesota .utility signa contract in tremely scarce, the ccist of sulfur recy- the.summer 1984-fotar e first conver- cling was factored into electricity costs. sion of aconventional coal-burning Indeed,' pollution controlaccounts for boiler into a fluidized bid unit. There- roughly 25percetit of the total 'Cost of trofitted plant is expected to begin oper- coal - generated power,,and Japan's elec- ating in 1986, with a generating-capacity tricity costs are among title highest in the of 125 megawatts." world. yet the nation appears willing to Another promising technology;--the foot this bill for the benefits of improved limestone injection multistage burner, air quality. Writes Dr. Jumpei Ando of (LIMB)--merits support.It combines r Chuo University, "From high buildings combustion modifications for NOxcon- in Tokyo one can now'see Mt. Fuji 100 trol with injection of limestone into the kilometers away."8 combustion chamber for control of SO2. .Some promising technologies now on LIMB's main advantage lies in retrofit- the Ito,rizon.will expand options for con- ting: Foy capita! cost much less than

trolling emissions from both new and that of scrubbers, LIMB can apparently . existing plants. Besides improvements remove 50-70 percent of both sulfur and in flue gas desulfurizatiwn, two technolo- pnitrogen oxides from existing plants. gies that control both sulfur 'and nitro- reliminary analyses for a LIMB retrofit gen oxides during combustion look .at- at a .105-megawatlant in Ohio show

tractive.Fluidizedbedcombustion capital costs of .-$ . 0-90 million, tom- (FBC). involves burning crushed coal on pared with $177 million for a scrubber, a bed of limestone suspended by an up- and operating costs only half that ofa . ward injection of air. The limestone scrubber. Though the technology is still reacts with the sulfur dioxide as the coal being -developed, pilot-scale tests make burns, reducing SO2 emissions by 90 it look promising." As noted, motor vehicles are tlIK, lend- resulting wastes must either be disposed ing source of nitrogen oxide emissions of or made into marketable sulfur pro- in most industrial cotihtries, They are f. 131 Protecting Fore,s4 fromAir Pollution and Acid Rain (017) vs also a leading source of hydrocarbons, the exception of extremely energy- 'the other ingredient needed to form intensive industries, such as aluminum ozone, Cars manufactured in the United smelting, most Japapese industries have States now have catalytic converters that accommodated the higher energy costs cut hydrocarbons by 96 percent and by using energy more efficiently. The trogen oxides by 76 percent over previ- nation's per capita energy consump- ous levels. Other modifications allow tion in 1982 was 2.7 times lower than substantial gains in fuel efficiency along intheUnitedStatesandroughly with pollution reductions, despite the 1.5 times lower than in Denmark, Swe- tendency for convertersto. decrease den, the United Kingdom, or West combustion efficiency. Japan's standards Germany .63 for automobile NOx emissions are even, Industrial countries that rely on fossil stricter than those in the United States. fuel combustion for the near future must AlthoughEuropeancountrieshave begin making itcompatible with the made some progress in controlling auto- preservation of their forests and other mobile pollution, the large reductions natural systems. This will be expensive, posOble with catalytic converters are not but by no means prohibitively so. Even yet being achieved. In June 1984, the with costly flue gas.scrubbers, new coal European Economic Community's etiTi- plants can generateelectricity more t ronmental ministers agreed to introduce cheaply today than any other widely lead-free gasoline by 1989. Since cata- available energy source except hydro- lytic converters require lead-free fuel, power. A decade 14919.41N+1, coal burned tr this Move.paves the way for stricter auto cleanly will in most cases still be less ex- emission controls. So far, however, EEC penSive than nuclear power and other. members have been unable to Agree on conventional sources. But by then sev- the stringency of such controls or the eral renewable energy sources' may be timetable for implementing them. As eTmomically competitive, and the range nations such as West' Germany and/ or energy options will have greatly ex- Switzerlandindividuallytakeaction, panded." others may be induced to follow their Developing countries are in a position lead.62 to avoid the pollution problems for which industrial countries are now paying dearly. The renewable energy tech- Few would argue that Japan's high nologies now emerging alongside the pollution control costs have seri- large-scale centralized power grids in the industrial countries can be at the ously undermined its competitive- heart of Third World energy strategies ness in global markets. just now taking shape. Where coal remains the best option, controlling sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions is clearly. Requiring ,thoAp costering air pollu- essential and vastly cheaper if dour from tion to begitkontrolling and paying for the start, Moreover, by taking advantage it will raise the pi-fee of energy and pip- now of the breathing room conservation ducts to industries and consumers. But and increased energy efficiency provide, this in turn will encourage moire- efficient long-term energy plans can incorporate Use of energy and materials. Pew would the drewd . argue a. n sig po u ion-conto and broader range of energy options

costs have seriously underminedits . that are becoming technicall)k, and competitiveness in global markets. With economically viable.

132 (118) State of theWorld-1985 CAN FORESTS THRIVE IN A emissions from its neighbors is a major barrier to action: Attempts to achieve COMMONS? multilateral cooperation, though falter- What is now unfolding in the forests of ing, are being made. An important, industrial countries is a tragedy of the though mostly symbolic advarice came in commons on a grand sc.ale.65 Less -pol- 1979 with the signing of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pol- luted air would clearly benefit all na- lution, an agreement reached within the tions, but most feel that acting to curb forum of the United Nations Economic their own emissions, without guarantees Commission for Europe (ECE): Unfor- that Other nations will do likewise, will tunately, the Convention required little incur greater costs than It yields benefits. concrete action toward reducing emis- The dilemma derives partly from a com- sions from its signatories, although it did plicated and imbalance0 trade in air pol- pave the way for cooperation in re- , lutants. All but a few countries export at search, monitoring, and information ex- least half the sulfur dioxide they emit. change. It strengthened the Coonerative Where it ends up depends. largely on Programme for Monitoring and EvaluaL wind and weather patterns. At.,,one end tion of Long-Range Transmission of Air of the spectrum are the Scandinavian Pollutants in Europe, which gathers data countries, where sulfur emissions are on the transport and deposition of pollu- comparatively low and where 75-90 per- tants. The Convention also was thF first cent of the sulfur deposited is imported. time that East European nations enlered (See Table -5.) At the other extreme is into an environmental pact with those of the United Kingdom, the largest emitter theWest.EmissionsfromEastem inWestern Europe,whichexports Europe arc especially high, and large nearly two thirds of its emissions- and quantities spillover into Austria, Scandi- imports only 20 percent of its deposi- navian 'nations, and West Germany. tons. Their coopenktion is thds essential to re- The data have wide error margins ducing pollution levels over the conti- around them, but they do portray the nent as a whole.06' general sulfurpollutionpatternsin Until recently, the United Kingdom Europe. (Data for Eastern :Europe are and West Germany were strongly allied 4. particularlyquestionable;emissions in discouraging both the ECE of the given for these countries are probably United Nations and the European Eco- low.) In some cases countries with mod- nomic Community from initiating strict est domestic emissions receive as much controls. Yet West Germany's forest sulfur per unit area as the heaviest emit- damage brought about a-dramatic and ters. Austria, for example, has a greater unexpected reversal of that nation's po-

densitrof deposition than Great Britain, sition. In June 1983, members . of the

. even though it emits only one tenth as ECE met in Geneva to discuss the trans- much sulfur. Although much lessis boundary pollution problem. For the known about transfers of nitrogen ox- first time, West Germany broke ranks by ides and ozone, obviously these pollu- supporting a Scandinavian proposal call- tants cross borders as well. ing for each ECE member to reduce sul- International cooperation is essential fur di I xide emissions 'by 30 percent by B nental pollutant trade. Thpossibility, ing the proposal (put forth by Finland, that a nation's own control efforts may Norway, and Sweden) were Austria, prove fruitless be9use of u 'controlled Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands. and 0' Protecting Forests fromMrPollution and Arid Rain ((1.9) Table 6-5. Estimated Sulfur Emissions, and Depositions In Europe

Density of Shareof Annual Average Monthly Average Monthly Deposition 'Con niry Emissions Depositions' Deposition IMported (thousand metric tons) (kilograms/ (percent) hectare) Western Europe Au Stria 220 34.1 4.1 85 Belgium 410 16.1 5.3 58 4 France 1,450 121.2 2.2 48 Greece 170 25.3 1.9 63 Ireland 130 6.5 0.9 72 Italy 1,540 113.2 3.8 30 Luxembourg 20 1.1 4.2 *73 Netherlands 240 17.3 4.7 77 Spain 1,050 58.3 1.2 37 Switzerland 60 14.1 3.4 90 Turkey 330 41.6 0.5 58 United Kingdom 2,130 84.7 3.5 West Germany 1,750 115.8 4.7 52

Eastern Europe Bulgaria 390 34.6 3.1 56 ICzechoslovakia 1,690 130.1 10.2 63 East Germany 2,000 77.8 7.4 36 Hungary 860 46.7 5.0 58 Poland 1,250 133.0 4.3 58 Romania 1,00Q 79.7 '3.4 64 Yugoslavia 420 109.3 4.3 49 Northern Ebrope Denmark 230 10.9 64 Finland 290 29.3 '0.9 74 Norway 70 25.5 0.8 92 Sweden .260 47,2 1.0 82 The calculated deposition figures are for winter months and may vary inother seasons. Density figures ob arc given to allow better deposition comparisons since countriesvary greatly in size. Obviously, loadings , may varyconsiderably witlinta given country. soulttEs:Emissions figures adapted from N.H. Highton and Mj. Chadwick, "The Effectsof Changing Patterns of Energy Use on Sulinr Emissions and Depositions in Europe," Ambio, Vol. II, No.6, 1982; deposition figures andcalculatiOns based on datain Environmental ResourcesLimited, Acid Rain: A Review of the Phenomenon in the EEC 'hnd Ein;ope (London: Graham .8c Trotman Ltd., 1983).

Switzerland-all nations with growing Eur9pe prevented the proposal from damage. Dissent from France, t e Soviet the Commission issued a noncommital Union; the Vniteck Kingdom, the United statement to reduce= ievnissions where States, andthe- nations otEastern feasible. The United States stood alone I ot (no) State of the World-1985 in refusing to sign even this mild docu- mer meeting in Munich. As of Septemlier ment. Although' pressured at home and 1984,16 nations were copiimitted to sub- by neighboring Canada to take stepsto stantial 902 reductions. (See Table 5-6.) combat acid rain damage, the Reagan Pressure is mounting on the United administration maintains that action is States and the United Kingdom: which unwarranted until the problem is better are the biggest sulfur emitters in North understood.67 America and Western Europe, to take Within the European Economic Com- similar action. Although other threaten- munity, policies receiving unanimous ing pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides support from all 10 member countries. and ozone, have taken a back seat to sul- become binding. The EEC -has" in fact fur dioxide, the international community. established Community-wide ambient may soon find that formal commitments. sulfur dioxid standards with which its members must comply. In early 1984, to control them arc essential as well. the EEC's policymaking arm, the Euro- National leaders have rarely made pean Commission, developed a proposal great political gains by attacking the calling for substattial emission reduc- problems of the next generation or the tions from large existing power plants. Table 5-6. Commitments to Sulfur The plan requires that by 1995, totalan- , Dioxide Reductions, S ember 1984 nual emissions of sulfur dioxide froth these sources be reduced by 60 percent Pron d Year over 1980 levels; nitrogen oxides would Reduction Reduction have to be cut by 40 percent. Though-a Over 1980 to be worthy effort, the proposal does not yet Country Levels Achieved have the unanimous support needed for it to become Community policy. Greece, (percent) Italy, and the United Kingdom haveso France 50 1990 far balked at setting emission limits at West Germany 50 1993 the Community level. Yet a numb* of Canada 50 1994 British Parliament membersare now Norway 50 '1994 calling for Britain to support the EEC Denmark 40 1995 directive, so its chances a adoptionap- Netherlands 40 1995 jear to be increasing.68 Austria 30 1993 The best prospect for coming to grips Finland 30 . 1993 with the transboundary nature of long- distance pollutant transport appears to Sweden 30 1993 be for nations to pursue bilateral and Switzerland 30 1993 multilateral agreemerits among them- Belgium 30 -1993 selves. In late March 1984, nine Euro- Lichtenstein 30 1994 pean countries and Canada formed,what Luxembourg 30 1993 Soviet Union' 30 quickly became known as the "30 percent . 1993 club," for their commitments to reduce East Germany' 30 1993 1980 levels of sulfur dioxide emissions' Bulgaria' 30 1993 by at ittost 30 perCent over the next dec- 'Commitmentis toreducesulfur dioxide ex- ade, dinada, France, Norway, and West ports. Germany promised reductions of 50 per- souRcEs: The Swedish and Norwegian NGO Sec- cent. Several other nationsnotably in- retariats on Acid Rain, "10 Countries Sign Acid Rain Pact:: Acid News,May 198,1; "Munich Confer- cluding Bulgaria, Esst Germany, and the ence Lays Groundwork for Sulfur Reduction Ac- Soviet Union joined the club at asum- cord," World Environment Report, July 11, 1984.

r 135 Protecting Forests from Air Pollution and Arid Rain country next door. Some nations, typi- and eastern North America, killing fish cally those moit obviously victimized, and plant life. Acid rain and gaseous stilt- have begun to respond to the severity of fur and nitrogen oxides are known to the threat that lies before them. Others, damage a host of everyday materials in- such as the United States, have been un- cluding paint, paper, textiles, and build- willing to act without irrefutable scien- ing stone. Corrosion of copper and lead tific proof of acid rain's and air pollu- plumbing pipes by acidic groundwater tion's damaging effectsproof that may threitens to containntate household tap require decades of 'additional research. water. Aluminum and other heavy met- If in the meantime the consequences be- als mobilized in acidifyingsoils and come irreversible, a late-course correc- leachedintoundergrounddrinking tion strategy will failno matter how water suppliesalsothreaten human ntich better scientists understand the health. Like damage to forests and soils, problem. these effects are insidious an1 thus hard to measure,. but the potential economic 5;loss and human suffering th6,..mayff..ause ' is staggering." Because acid rain, mope, and the BEYOND THE FOREST buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are problems with a common on- The- emerging threat to the world's for- gin, they can also have common solu- ests clearly raises the potential economic tions. Yet most existing and proposed and ecological consequences of acid rain strategies address isolated issues, rather and air pollution. Yet decisions to take than strive fir the integrated solutions action need notindeed should not--,- 'that are needed. Placing desulfuriiing rest upon wliat is happening there alone, scrubbers on smokestacks, for example, Forest destruction is but an addition to will reduce sulfur dioxide Old thereby a litany of consequences rooted in the control acid rain. But this technology combustion of fossilfuelsin power will do nothing to'help crops suffering plants, factories, ;ind automobiles. from ozone, nothing to ensure that rain discussed in Chapter 1,possibly the two decades from now will not be just as most serious long.-term consequence Of acidic from nitrogen oxides.; and nothing fossil -fuel combustion is the buildup of to slow the rate at which carbon dioxide carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. And is increasingin*the atmosphere. Techno- ozone levels in many agricultural re- logical 'controls fbr 'specific pollutants gions are now high enough to damage must bepart of any plan to reduce emis- valnable crops. In the United States, sions substantially in the immediate fix- ozone is lowering the productivity of ture. But cnds are limited, and the_ time corn, wheat; soybeans, and peanuts, with available fbr reversing these threatening losses valued' at $1.9-4.5 billion each trends grows ever shorter. These prob- year." lems of common origin must 1). tackled Vast areas of fertile farmland now simultaneously and at their core. 'regularlyreceive rainthatishighly Using energy more efficiently, recy- acidic. Although acid rain's effects on cling more paper and metals, and gener- crops vary, soybeans and corn have ating more power from alternative en- shown lower yields when grown under ergy sources are rarely considered in the acidic conditions now typical in the strategies to reduce air pollution or acid eastern United States. Lakes and streams rain. Yet they are among the most effec- continue to acidify in northern Europe tive and least costly ways that exist. Sul- State of the ll'orld-1985 fur dioxide and nitrogerk oxide emis- the paper and less than one third of the sions, were lower in 1980 than they aluminum used is recycled. In contrail would have been without' the impressive to copper production, the feedstocklyir energy efficiency gains made during the these common materials contain Nile seventies. Although two oil price hikes no skilful-, but the benefits from recycling helped spur these energy savings,na- theatre nonetheless dramatic: Efich ton tions can achieve much greater efficiency of piper made from waste Opel! rather -c--and thus further reduce pollutionin than new wood reduces energyuse by the coming- decades, as documented in third to a half and air pollutants by Chapter 7, Installingdesulfurizing much as 95 percent. Aluminum.pro- scrubbers on plants producing a total of duced from recycled cans rather than 35,000 megawatts of power wouldcost from virgin ore cuts tortissiotis of nitro- $5,10 billion, for exampW. cutting sul- gen oxides by 95 percent aiid.sulftir di- fur dioxide by.aving 35;000 megawatts oxide by 99 percent.72 through adopts n of efficiency standar=ds Generating moreTower- from the forcomilibnhouseholdappliances wind, photovoltaic solar cellS, and other would cost less than1 percent of this. renewable energy sources is centralto Moreover, emis ions of nitrogen oxides what has been called a "CO2 benign" and carbon diox de would be reduced at energy strategy." Added to increased moexkra cost,' energy efficiency and recycling,_these a*. tcrnative energy sources round out strategy that is not only CO2 benign but The questioi is no longer whether "acid rail and ozone benign" as'Well. - proof of damage is irrefutabk, but fta the--itear term, however, the most whether forestsaresufficiently cost-effective gains will come from fur-. threatened to warrant action. ther.squiezing the sponges of.energy eflicienc? and recycling. Together they will 'not only'reduce pollution; they also offer a bridge to the mid-nineties when Similarly, recycling common materials several renewable energy sources should rather than discarding them attacks acid be economically competitive. As noted rain, ozone, and carbon dioxide buildup throughout this volume, conwvation7 in two w vs,:--directly, by reducing pollu- recycling, andalternative energysources tion at theroduction factory, and fin- also provide as myriad of other benefits directly, by re ing energy,. demand besides cutting air pollution. Collec- , and thus pollutionmitted at the power tively they gr4atly alter the cost-benefit plant. Each ton ofcopper produced by calculations that :.are inherent in deci-, Canada's smelters nerates an average sions about whether and how to protect of 2.7 s of sulfur dioxide. Because forests, lakes, and :crops and toprevent- one tit'd of Canadi's 1980 copper sup- carbondioxidefromwarmingthe me from recycled scrap rather than planet, sulfur-laden ore, one million fewer tons The biosphere is not infinitely resil- of sulfur dioxide entered Canada's at- ient. What is happening in the industrial mosphereequal to 21 percent of the world's fields and fiflitsts-ars signs that nation's sulfur dioxide emissions that fossilfuel combustion has ecological year. limits, and that exceeding themexacts a In virtually of nationS, recycling lihs price. Unless energy and environmental barely scratched the surface of its poten- strategies begin to reflect this, today's*, tial. Worldwide only aboutone fourth of threats are bound to become tomor-

137 Protecting ForessU fromAirPollution and.Acid Rain (3) row's catastrophes. Given the rapidity threatened to warrant action. Undoubt- with which the Porest destruction has un- edly, West German foresters would'an- folded,the relevant gutstionisno swer with a resounding yes. But the real longer whether proof of damage from test is whether nations so far spared se- air pollutants or acid rain is irrefUtable, vere losses will muster the political will but whether the ,forests are sufficiently to take action to avoid them.

IMP

A 9

It/ Conserving A, BiolcgicalDiversity E ward C. Wolf

If Charles Darwinwere writing today, his accumulated and CoMpounded, species masterwork would probably be known tt, as have Adapted to environmentalchange, The Disappearance of Species. In 1859,pub- and the result is 'a multitude of living lication of Darwin's The Origin ofSpecies formS generally well suitedto the condi- sparked an intellectual revolution.A tions they face. century.and A coarter later the planet is People' have long 'exploited thege- losinw its living*hyprsityat unprece- netic variability within, specksto create dented rates. As humv populations the food surpluses that make modern grow and as societies nroclernize, land urban civilization poSsible. Humanse', degradation, forest cutting, coastal de- lection of crops and, livestock isas old.ps velopment, and environmentalstresses the cultivation of food grains, which such as acid rain are accelerating theex- began at least 10,000years ago. Neo- tinction of plant and animal speci Re- lithic farmers eoaxedour .most impor- sources that undoubtedlrehold grey po- tant crops and livestock from the wild tentialforagricultureand ew relatives of those plants and animals mil- biotechnologies are being irretrievay lennia ago.' Since then; breeders' efforts lost. to assemble desired genetic traits from The millions of different plants, ani- different crop varieties,or in some spe- mals, and microorganismson earth cial cases between species, gradually today are products ofa natural evolution enabled the development of the high- stretching unbroken through 3.5 billion yielding wheat, rice, and hybiidcorn years. I. Throughout this time, plants and that sustain modern societies._ -atiitilix1S- have tended to producemore Given the vast areas plantedto the few offspring than the environmentcan sus- major cereal species, the genetic varia- tain, so only those whose inherited char= bility within each speqies is neededto acteristics allow them to reproducesuc- keep agricultureresilient.Modern cessfullywillsorvive. Changes have breeding programs depend on unique ,r7

Conserving Biological Diversity a genes to provide resistance to new plant/once-natural processes.4 diseases, And wild rslatives of commer- Control functions, it now appears, op- cial crops rangingfrom tomatoes to erate at the global level as Well. The cy- wheat have provided genetic material cling and global abundance of elements worth billions of dollars in higher crop' as common as carbon and as rare as'io- yields. Recent recognition of they past dineboth essential to human survival and potential contribution of the genes --are 'regulated by certain key tecosy's- of wild relatives to major crops has, terns and regions. Atmospheric scientist earned them the label "the newest, re- James ,Lovelock, originator qt the Gaia source. "3 Hypothesis that the earthi's toM commu-,, The contribution of such genes has tiny of living organisms Modifies condi- ,often been limited by the difficulty of tions to create an optimal environment makink. viable crosses between wild and for life, emphasizes our ignorance. of domesticated species. Today's revolt).- "planetary control systems .. associa- non in the Sophistication of biotechnolo- tions of species which cooperate. to per- gies and the science of genetics is slowly form sonic essential regulatory func- breaching biological barriers, raising the tions." According. to Lovelock, large- prospect that useful traits may soon be scale disturbance of natural communi- transferred _between species that could ties in the tropics or the offshore conti- never beAfe be crossed by conventional nental shelves may jeopardize the regu- breeders. As it becomes easier to use the bulb") of such critical substanceS as wild relatives of cultivated plants, inven- atmospheric oxygyn, with unknown im- tories of the distribution and properties plications for earth's habitability; And of little-noted plants and anithals will be not all regions or ,natural communities needed.Geneticmaterial' frOmall contribute equally to these functions; sources will appreciate in value, andthe Lovelock cautions that "what we do to fruits of \effoos to bend new species to our planet may dipend greatly onwhere human usestoy mark a turning point as We do it." Although theimpact' of.our important as the domestication of plants interventions at all these levels cannot and animals by our Neolithic ancestors. be predicted with confidence, human:. At another _level of diversity, intact ity's ability to extinguish species clearly ecosystems play a central role in main- rivalsthenaturalforcesthathave taining conditions that favor life on molded the historyoflife.5 earth. Natural assemblages of species make critical contributions on a local scale, moderating the water flow within watersheds, buffering against damaging floods, cleansing urban air of pollutants ASSESSING 'EXTINCTIONS and particulates, and sustaining the nat- 054 populations of predatory birds and Extinction is forever. This trtlh was not , insects that help keep crop pests in assailed even when researchers at the check. Natural ecosystems provide these University of California at Berk,y an services `most efficiently when undis- no need last June that they had cloned turbed. When key species are elimi- genes from the pelt of an extinct animal " nated, vital services are disrupted. The known as the quaggiv a relative of the cascade of consequences can lead to out- horse. UnTortunately for,those efiviskin breaks of virulent pests, .the demise of ing the imminent resurrection of passen- commercial Species, and costly engi- ger pigeonland dodos, researchersonly neering projects that attempt to replace expect the tibrie fragments to help un-

it; ,'.. ...

(136) Stale of the World-1985 ravel the quaggas relatiVnship to zebras . sils attest that most of the animalsthat 'and horses which will solvean evolu- once roamed the earth have no living . tionary dale but.not disclose extinc--,descendants; onlya few of the myriad, tion's .secret.6 branches of the tree of life haveen- When Charles Darwin speculatedon dowed our world with its,present array the quagga's. kinship0The Origin of Spe- of plants and animals. cies, herds of this partly striped mammal The earth's history has beenrepeat- still roamed the plains of SouthAfrica. edly interrupted by wide- rangingepi- Twenty years later, thequagga had been sodes of terminal extinctions that have hunted to extinction. It joineda litany of earned the name "mass extinctions." such losses due to hunting and overhar-. These occasional contractions oflife vesting that coincided with Europeanex- forms define theboundariesof geologic ploration, Since then, thepace of species ages and signify global changeS of the loss has acceleratedas populationsAind past. There have been six such large- human settlementshaveexpatiaed scale losses in the last 500 millionyears; worldwide. (See Table 6-1.) one of the most severe, at the end of the 1 Scientists who study the ebb and flow Permian. period about 240 million of life generally distinguish 4 years ti4types of ago; may have exterminated 95percent extinction. In the first,a .plant Fr animal of all living species in the oceans.? species is transformed over a number of Biologists and paleontologistsare generations into a physica.. distinct de- struggling to provide coherentexplana- . scendant by natural selec: n. This ina tions for thesemass extinctions, and the sense.denotes biolsigical "., ccess":The scientific communpy is far fromuniver- species gradually adapts to its changing sal agreement. Current hypothesesbuild environment. The secondterminalex- an evidence that some of these events tinctioix.ris the outright.eliminationof a can be correlated with asteroid impacts, species)lati evolutionary deadend. Fos- qneof which coincided with the disap-

Table 6-1. Estimated'Aeceleratioof Mammal Extinctions Percent of Extipctions Present Stock of Time Period Per CenturySpecies Los° Principal Cause Pleistocene (3,5 million yea%) 0.01 Natitral extinction Late Pleistocene (100,000 0.08 0.002 Climate change /Neolithic years), hunters .10 1604-1980 A.D. '*" . 17 0.4 European expansion/ hunting and commerce 1980-2000 .0.* 145 3.5. Habitat disruption lAssurnes that present stotA of 4,100 laminal species is close to that throughputthe recent evolutionary. past.'Assumes that one fifth of the 146 threatened mammals of the Americas and'Australasialisted by tke !MN'sMammal Red Data/gook disappear by 2000. somacts: Author's estimates based on data fromDr. Paul Martin, University of Arizona, Tucion, colilmunication, October 10, 1984, and private International U.11191' for the Conservationof Nature and Natural Resources,The ItICAr Mammal Red DataBook (Gland, Switzerland: 1982).

141 Conserving Biological Diversity (137) pearance of dinosaurs 65 million years cause the extinctions were so limited in ago. David Rani) and John Sep kowski of kind and extent, but also because there the University of Chicago, analyzing the clearly has not been enough time since

marine fossil .record, point out that wide- . then for the origination of distinctly new spreadextinctionsseemtooccur species in nature," to roughly every 26 million years. This has Against this backdrop, the current prompted speculation that periodic cos- contractionof biologicaldiversityis mic events, perhaps comet showers as- cause for alarm. And while complete dis- sociated with an as-yet-undiscovered sis- appearance is most serious, other losses ter star of the sun, have disrupted life on merit,attentionUnique. races and popu- .,_._earth with repeated cataclysms." lations can also be extinguished; such di- q. Despite the controversy, a few things minishment of genetic variety within a are known with certainty about mass ex- .species must be counted a biological tinctions.Mot, none occurred abruptly: loss, for the pool of further evolution is Hard -shell d marine species seem to.. gradually drained. have been cast at these times at a rate Of about 1-.2 species per 1,000 years. Even the rather sudden loss of the dinosaurs Diminishment of genetic variety was spread over two million years.9 Sec- within a species must be counted a ond, life does not bounce back rapidly from mass extinctions. Each was fol- biological loss, few the pool of Inv lowed by a biological lag of several mil- they evolution is gradually drained. lion years before new species emerged to reestablish the previous level of diversity. And third, humans causefl none of Extinctionrates andtheirconse- the great extinctions of the distant past. quences would be known with more That was true until the late Pleisto- confidence if scientists had a complete ceneera, which ended 10,000 years ago, inventory of life on earth. Unfortunately, when many of the dominant large mam- our lists are far from exhaustive. About mals in North America and Europe dis- 1.5 million living organisms have been ..--.appeared. Although a changing global scientifically, described. Flowering climate probably played a part, the ae- plants, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, mise of woolly mammoths and saber- and mammals total about 290,000, of toothed cats has been ascribed to the which plants alone account for 85 per- appearance of Neolithic hunters. Early cent." Yet from the patterns and distri-

tribes may have hunted the great crea- . bution of species already investigated., tures using firedrives, inadvertently scientists suspect that between 5 million creating the prairies of the Great Plains and 10 million species remain unde- in the process. scribed, and estimates as high as 50 mil," Ten thousand years- is a long time in lion have been made. human terms, a, span beyond the dura- This wealth of life is distributed far tion of governments, beyond even the from equitably among different regions. records of written history. But in the his- From forest surveys ancrjamples of tory of life it is an instant, far too short study plotst iiis clear thagthe tropics to .fillbjp3ogical gaps adequately. As host a richer array of trees, flowering . George Gaylord Simpson notes in Fossils 'alarms, insects, birds, and higher animals and the History of Life, "The late Pleisto- than earth's cooler regions. Costa Rica's cene extinctns have not been followed .La Amistad Park, for example, which is by a rise iniginationsnot only be- smaller than Rhode Island, is home to w.

142 (138) 1 State of theWorldIP85 more bird- species than inhabit all of tems, and changing patterns -of natural North America. Of the 250,000 named. catastrophes provide useful proxie'i for species of flowering plants,more than a more precise measures of species loss. third are native to tropical America. The The peculiarities of tropical forest biol- richest of tropical life zones are the rain ogythe high proportion, of endemic forests. Covering just 7 percent of the species and their complek interactions-- earth's land surface, rain forests may have prompted tropical biologists to rely harbor more than 40 percent of all living on rates of forest cutting for rough ap- *plants and animals. As might 11eex- proximations of plant and, animal extinc- pected with midi a high concentration, tions. Biologist Thomas Lovejoy of the many spqiei are restricted to small World Wildlife Fund used this approash areas and highly dependent on others to estimate species extinctions for rhe for food, pollination, or protection dur- Global 2000 Report to the President,showing critical phases of their life cycles.12 ing that 15-20 percent of living species Researcters have recently turned10 could be pushed to extinction by the- the least-known zone of this little-known .year 2000 under the range of deforesta- region --the canopy of tropical forests tion estimater.contained in the report. and found it to he a far richer province Lovejoy stressed that .insects and plaints of life than ever imagined. Adapting would 'suffer the most." mountain climbing equipment and tech- The riChne4s of tropical forest species niques to the great rain forest trees, and today may beAue in part to naturalcon- Wing biocides that selectively kill can- tractionsthe-forestzonehasex- opy (ipsects in a small study plot, scien- perienced in its evolutionary past. Ad- tists working,in Peru have uncovered ev- vancing glaciers and cooler climates idence that estimates of tropical species during the ice ages are thought to have must be multiplied manyfold. Based on caused tropical forests to retreat into the new surve,y, entomologist Terry Lee climatically stable "refuges." With the Erwin of the St lkithsonian Institution be- \gradual creation of "islands" of forest in lieves the nuuber of insect specks alone a sea of grassland more tolerant of an may total close to 50 million." ice-age climate, isolated populations of Far from engendering complacency forest species gradually diverged, ulti- about disappearing species,the new ately becoming fully distinct species. findings make exinction rates even more These newly diverse varieties spread as Critictli. The research illustratesthat forests recovered in a more benign cli- many tropical species are more highly mate, progressively enriching the set of localized, and thereby more vulnerable, Species of the whole tropical zone." than anyone previously believed. Four The existence of these species-rich re- out of five of the,insects Erwin collected fuges means that the biological impacts are new to science. His results so far re- of forest clearing cannot simply beex- .veal that 'Nearly 9 out of 10 tropical in- ,trapolatedfromdeforestationrates sects are restricted to a particular type of alone. Lovejoy and his colleague' Eneas forest, and as much as 13 percent exist Salati conclude that "the relationship on only one species of tree," s' between the percentage of Amazonia de- Since species lists are incomplete, pat- forested 4 andthepercentageof terns of resource and land use must be Amazonian biota threatened with extinc- used to judge the seriousness of recent tion depends, therefore, on the extent to pressures on biological diversity. Rates which deforestation is ainat'd :toward or of forest clearing in the tropics, the . awayfrom refugia.';17Unfortunately, health of certain key indicator ecosys- these well-endowed zones have not been 4

143 Conserving Biologic°, Diversity (129), thoroughly napped in the Amazon, and identified 20 plant and 89 animal specks their laatiOns in other tropical regions known to be at risk of extinction in man- are even less known. Until specks-rich grove forests and pointed out that "in refuges ha been identified, mapped, the majority of the countries containing an rote ed, deforestation will con- mangrove resources, both the types of tinue e a particularly deadly form of plants and animals associated with man- Russian roulette. grove forests and the distribution and Although islands of forest are created extent of the mangrove plant communi- when land is cleared for timber or agri- tiesare poorly known." °-t:' culture, the ultimate effect is quite differ- A third proxy for estimates of species , ent from previous.scontractions. First, di- lo'ss is the pattern and extent of natural versity of species is closely related to the catastrophes, which repdarly disrupt amount of undisturbed habitat available. forestlands and can considerably reduce As a forest is reduced to islands or re- biological diversity. The "natural" event fuges, many animal species-disappear of recent years that has perhaps had the faster than new specie3 arises Second, as greatest effect on living diversity was the populations are localized into smaller massive forest fire that blazed for three fragmented areas, they become vulnera- months in early 1983 in Indonesian Kali- ble both to the effects of inbreeding, diantan on the island of Borneo. Over which diminishes inherent genetic varia- 3,5 million hectares of forest burned: tion, and to chance fluctuations or dis- 800,000 of primary forest, 1.4 million of ease epidemics that can quickly wipe out commercially logged woodland, 750,000 small populations.18 Because patterns of of second-growth forest that sustained tropical development are haphazard, un- shiftinK cultivators, and 550,000 hec- disturbed forest remnants today are far tares of peat swamps. This charred area, smaller than_the natural refuges of the nearly the size of Taiwan, is asinge loss t, too 0411 to allow new species to equal, to nearly two years of human - Orin. causeddeforestation throughout South- The status of the mangrove forests of east Asia.2° the'world's coastal areas is a- second im- Large fires were previously unknown portant indicator of how species are far- in tropical moist forests; any area that ingin this case, in adjacent ecosystems gets five tiines as much rain as falls on both on- and offshore. These partially New York City or London should surely .;Submerged forests line coasts and rim be difficult to ignite. But drought caused estitaritl in the tropics and subtropics, by the anomalous climatic patterns la- where they stabilize shorelines and pro- beled "El Nino" dried theforest; as trees vide shelter and spawning grounds for dropped their leaves in an effort to con- many eebnanalcally,important fish and servemoisture,a readytinderac- shellfish species. Though mangroves are cumulated on the forest floor. Shifting often cut ;4 coastal areas develop, forest cultivators started small burns to clear losses are difficult to assess since few in- cropland;, lightning probablyignited ventories have been conducted. The fires as well. Once small fires spread out mangrove area on tropical coastlines of control, brush and damaged tree's !ell may. have .§een cut by a third already; standing by selective Commercial log- one estirrilte puts the annual toll from gii'T intensified the blaze. The firoin forest cutting and degradation at 260,- Kalimantan was not a stress to which the 000 hectares. A 1983 survey by the Inter- region's species had adapted, and the bi- . national Union for the Conservation of ological losses were severe." ..Nature and Natural Resources (1UCN) Close examination reveals some iin- (130) State of theWorld CBI portant human causes of this natural cation of primary. forests. Reviewing the tastrophe. The ranks of 4tiltivators in various estimates of forest disruption, Kalimantan had recently beincreased theyeculiarities of tropical biology, and by 10,000, resettled as,Oil.: of In-,:the records of previous extinctions in the donesia's massive "transmigration" pro- history of life,Daniel Simberloff of gram meant to reduce the overpopula- Florida State University puts the pro- tion of Java and Bali. Both farmers and spective loss of tropical species well loggers directly promoted thefire's within the class of mass extinctions that spread. Researchers at the University of have punctuated earth's history half a Hamburg suggest that changed in the dozen times in the last 500 minion years. turbidity of coastal waters due to soil It may be the first such extinction to erosion in Southeast Asia may have al- affect so widely the plants, insects, and . tered regional atmosjiheric currents, invertebrates that sustain higher life. It is contributing to the drought. Thus hu- without a doubt the first mass extinction man-caused deforestation on the sub- to which humans will have to adjust." continent may have inadvertantly trig- At the news that widespread extinc- gered the "natural" catastrophe in the forests of the Malaysian archipelago.0 tions are already ocdirring, some will wonder why losses of insects, plants, and even vertebrates should concern us. voc,a They shciuld remember that the emer- Deforestation one sub-continent genceoffloweringplants---bearing may have inadvertantly triggered abundant edible' seeds, roots, tubers, the "natural" catastrophe of the and fruits- may.have laid the foundation Malaysian archipelago. for the emergence of humanity: As biO17 ogist Lynn Margulis observes, "the actual steps that led to the originatkin of seeds and fruits arc not known, but.that Theconstellationoffactorsim- plicated in Kalimantan's conflagration evolutionary innovation changed the by, hold lessons for other tropical regions. ing world by producing an environment In particular, the Brazilian Amazon also in which man and other mammals could hosts large-scale resettlement schemes survive."" As discussed in the next sec- and timber concessions; a disruption of tion, the potential uses of higher plants the area's hydgpolOgical cycile that fos- are far from fully exploited; reversing tered drought Yonditions could makea the evolutionary tide that cast us ashore similar catastrophic fire possible. As dis- seems unwise indeed, cussed in Chapter- 1, new research indicates that the forest cutting in Brazil may already 1)affecting the region's :hydrology; even fore44-clearing that steers clear, of the species-rich refuges could THt. FOUNDATIONS OF Compromise' the region's biological fu- AGRICULTURE ture by increasing the likelihood of massive "natural" disasters," The genetic diversity within the handful Although (hire are some whoques- of crop and livestock species that feed tion these rates of tropical deftrestation tiumanity---so-called germplastn re- and other ecological change, there is vir- sourcesholds much of the potential for tually no dissent from biologistscon- improving agricultural performance. At cerning the effects of large-scale disrup- the same time, great opportunities lie in

14 3 Congerving Biological Diversity (r3') broidening the base of species that pro- a substantial price: U.S. farmers now vide our food and fiber; An agriculture spend dyer $4 billion each year on seeds, sufficient to feed a world population ex- and while the cost per ton of grain har- pected to double in the next 40 years will vested has declined in real terms over need and use both kinds of diversity. the past three decades, the cost per har- Increa*tg harvests rest on a founda- vested acre had doubled. (See Table tion of &tietic diversity that has pro- 6-2.) vided the range of variation for improv- In a 1972 report on genetic vulnera- ing crops to date. Throughout most of bility, the National Academy, of Sciences history, the selection and breeding of su- listed reserve .stocks, land held out of perior plants was done by individual production, crop insurance, and the farmers working from the limited stocks ability to convert corn and soybean acre- in their fields, aug ented by occasional age back to wheat suitable for human spontaneous crosses wild relatives diets as other important margins Of pro- nearby. Cultivated crops, t ough single tection against a large-scale crapilure .species, contained an incredible array of in the United States. Such "irTvisiblc di-. genetic types adapted to local circum- versity" reflects the affluence of Ameri- stances. cans in this field but contributes little to , In industrial countries, few farmers the security of most the rest of the can spare the time or land for plant world'sfarmers.27Mostdeveloping breeding. The selection of high per- countries have negligible reserve stocks, formance crops today is done by govern- little or no gurplus cropland, no system ment scientists and by private companies for insuring crops, and a much larger who sell specially bred seed to farmers reliance on cereal grains for food than for planting.. Farmers have traded their North America. Many Third World na- independence fromthemarketfor tions must opt for lower yields and less higher performance and larger harvests; crop uniformity in order to get the extra as a result, a few successfUl varieties are margin of resistance to disease that planted on millions of acres. planting a Wide range of locally adapted Fifteen year after a devastating epi- varieties affords. demic of Southern Corn Leaf Blight cut Until recently, international assistance the U.S. corn harvest by 15 percent and aimed at boosting harvests in the devel- alerted the nation to the genetic vulnera- oping world placed more emphasis on bility of its cropi, a visitor to the wheat- increasing yields than on maintaining fields of the Dakotas or the corn fields of stable harvests. The semid(varf varieties Iowa can still see row upon row of uni- of wheat and. rice developed by the inter- form plats stretching to the horizon. national agricultural research centers Yet under this uniformity lie forms of two decades agovarieties that channel diversity not available to most of the more energy into grain production than world's farmers. The many varieties into plant growthhave increased har- under study by the private plant breed- vestssubstantially. Butprogressive ing industry, the widely available infor- farmers' adoption of modern varieties illation on pest outbreaks and weather and increased irrigation hA enabled conditions worYdwide that constitutes an -thent to harvest two or more genetically "early warning system," and a seed in- uniform crops eachyear.This has led to duktrythatcantransportvarieties Serious pest damage.a and hastened the quickly to areas that need them all pro - replacement and loss of -many locally tect Am'erican farmers from fatal vulner- adapted varieties of rice that could hold ability," These saf4uards have come at traits useful to plant breeders, During 146 (132) Slate of the World1985 Table 6-2. Seed Costs In U.S. was reports(' in India, Indonesia*, the Agxecu Iture, 195043 Philippines, South Korea, South? Viet- nam, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan. Seed Cost For the 800 million farmers of the Per Ton Seed Cost Third World, monoculturesl'emain the Seed of Grain Per Acre exception, not the rule, although among Year Purchased'ProducedIlarvestedl farmers who have adopted modern (million (dollars) (ditilars) methodsthisapproachisbecoming dollars) more common. According to geneticist T.T. Chang, head of the International 1950 2.100 15.79 # 6.25 Rice Germplasih Center in the Philip- 1955 2.0060 14.54 6.02 pines, many Asian rice farmers "inten- tionally plant a mixture of differentvar- ietiesin 1960 1,629 9.00 5.13 the same field to forestall epidemics.' Thai farmers plant the modern senCidwarf varieties on part of their 1965 '.,2,088 11.34 7.15 land during the dry season andsow tra- 1970 2,183 .11.67 7.55 ditional varieties during the monsoon 1971 2.407 10.11 8.02 season. They have thus established a sys, 1972 2,404 10.54 8.31 tern that allows them to take advantage 1975 3,297 13.85 10.43 of the productivity of irrigated modern 1974 3, 7 17.8/ - 11.30 varieties during dry months and the sta- 044 bility of the traditional varieties in the

197 3,665 . 14.72 11.11 wet season when pest outbreaks are 1 3,855 14.94 11.68 common. This strategy of hedging against likely environmental or climatic 77 ' 3,824 14.37 )11.31 1978 3,781 13.70 damages amounts to "the most effective 11.46 long 1979 3,905 12.89 - lasting means of stabilizing yields," 11:48 according to Chang:2! 1980 4,050 15.00 11.88' By the early eighties, 10 of the world's 1981 4,342 13.04 12.30 13 international agricultural research 1982 4,154 12.29 11.87 centers had begun to focus on germ- 1983 3,468 16.67 ' plasm conservation asa vital element of 11.84 theirstrategy to koostfood supplies. In 'Calculated in constant 1983 dollars. countries and regions where there are sonacts: Worldwatch Institute estimates based on data from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA),;; few commercial or national plant breed Economic Research Service (ERS),Economic Indica ing efforts, new crop varieties are devef- tors of the ram Sector: Income, and Balance Shett,Statis,- 'oped and distributed from the centers. tics, 1982(Washington, U.S..Government Their efforts to collect and cataloguetilt, PrintinOfiice, 1983); USDA,Economic Indicators of ditional crops and the wild relatives'of the Sector: Production and Efficiency Statistics,. 1982 (ashington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prin- Mich crops in developing countriesmay ting QfPce, 1984); USDA, ERS,World Indices of:fp-i- be even more important over the long ndium, and Food Production, 1950-83(unpublished run. Locally adapted varieties, called printout) (Washington, D.C.: 1984). landraces, offer an unexploited ocean of potentially useful genes for crop breeders, but unless,ihey are collected when the late sixties and tke seventies, serious high-performing varieties replace them, damage to rice harvests due to pests and they quickly disappear, Botanist Garri- disease outbreaks in modern varieties son Wilkes points out that "the techno- Conserving 'Biological Diversity (133 ) logical bind of improved varietie is that lections with the liabilities that a concen-

.they eliminate the resource on which tration of resource (power) implies," 'they are based."3° points out Garrison Wilkes.33 Ole result has been the emergence of political olps- pines over the control of germplasm. ha Gene banks in Third, World coun- November 1983, the U.N. Food and Ag- tries are likely to outnumber those riculture Organization (FAO) adopted a in industrial nations by the end of nonbinding "International Undertaking the eighties. on PlantGenetic Resources"atits twenty-second biennial conference. The I. agreementproposedestablishinga coordinateil-itetwork of national, re- For a decade, collecting and conServ- gional, and international centers for jog crop germplasm has been coor- base collections of plant germplasm and dinated worldwide by one of the 13 in- putting existing gene banks under FAO ternational centers, the International auspices." Board fbrPlant Gepetic ResoUrces. Controversy erupted around the pro- TBPGR has overseen fkld collection of posAl's endorsement of the principle of crop varieties and the establishment of "free exchange of gerinplasm." At issut, gene banks that store at low tempera- was whether elite breeders' stocks, the tures the seeds and cuttings of most product of long and costly commercial majorfoodand commoditycrops. Though the first and largest gene banks breeding efforts, should be exchanged were in the United ;States,' Wersterri among, countries on the same basis as Europe, Japan, and the Soviet Union, wild species and traditional cultivated germplasm is now stored in many Third varieties that had never undergone de- We rid countries as well, (Sec Table 6-3.) liberate scientificselectionfortheir Gae banks there are likely to outnumar traits. The United States, japan, and the ber those in industrial nations by the end of the eighties." Table 6-3. Number of Samples of Major One specific benefit these offer the. Crops Held in Gene Banks in Industrial Third World is a mptt ure,. of insurance and Developing Countries, 1983 against age-old nattiral antisocial catas- Industrial Developing trophes. Stresses like the severe drought Crop Countries' in Africa and regional wars in Central Countries' America and Southeast sia can force samples (countries) people to eat the seed that should be Wheat 246,790(7) 87,000(3) saved for planting. Traditional rice var- Rice -50,8003) 148,500(11) ietieslost. in Kampuchea during the Maize 40,900(4) 36,450(4) seventies, for example, were restored Sorghum 42,900(3) 37,000(4) from holdings of theInternational Barley 127,500(7) 47,500(4) Rice Research Ins6tute- in the Philip- Millet 4,300(3) 34,500(2)

pines." Potato. 20,600(4) 21,400(2) Although the establishment of germ- oytbean, 14,350(3) 15,900(2). plasm collections is a positive development, it signals that "the centers of [4e- %dudes short-, medium-, and long-term stor- agefacilities. , netic variability are moving from natural SOURCE: AdaptedfromD. L. Pluck411 et al., "Crop systems and. primitive agriculture to Gentiplasm Conservation and Developing Coun- gene banks and breeders' workingcol- tries,'"Scioto!, April 8, 1983. 148 f. (134) State of theWorld-1985 countries of Western Europefelt the before beinggrown out or that is im- FAO proposal underminedeconomic in- properly stored will lose its terests and contravened laws that viability. Ac- made cording to William L.Brown, former some breeders' stocks proprietarymate- rial in their coun ries. Its Chairman of Ioneer Hi-BredInterna- advocates, such tional, more,corn germplasmmay be lost as Colombia, C iba, Libya, and Mexico, from poorly managed countered that he breeders in gene banks than industrial from fields that collectorshave not,yet countries curre tly had freeaccess to the' visited." genet )c resources of deVelopingcourt- . The idea of setting asideparks for triesthatthey then developed intocorn- / mercial varieties crop relatives find landracesmay.seem to be sold lmck to the like an impossible luxury I Third World at considerableprofit. in countries There,are actually few restrictions where farmland is alreadyat a premium, on but this may be the least costly ithe exchange of gerrnplasm,particularly and most for breedingpurposes, and the growing advantageous way toensure the future ranks of gene banks iii theThird World contribution of presentlyuncollected should allay fears that the Westhopes to genetic resources. Gentbanks in effect "corner the market" "freeze" evolution. AllOwingcrop popu- on crop germ- lations to grow naturally and plasm. Many countries urgentlyneed to to adapt to develop plant breedingprograms to pest attacks, competitor species,and work with stored materialand to adapt weather and climate fluctuationskeeps to national needs the varietiessupplied. them dynamic inan evolutionary sense by the internationalagricultural,re- and fosters knewgene combinations. search centers. Although Donald Duvick, Pioneer Hi-Bred'sdirec- k private seed companies are seeking markets insome tor of plant breeding, maintains That developing countries, it is stillministries7 "the concept of 'gene parks'where crop of agriculture,not private companies, species in the broadestsense can, 'co- that distribute improved seedto farmers evolve with their.pestsseems to be the in most of the Third World." only way to conserve geneticvariability .The debate ongene banks and who in any truly wide-scaleevolutionary controls them tends to obscurethe fact sense. Gene 'parks would not take the .4 that existing collections for. majorcrops place.of gene banks; they wouldbe logi- are largely complete. Evaluationant:fuse cal (and biological) adjunctsto them."37 of collected germplasm.andan effort to preserve landraces and wildcrop relatives where they still existare the critical needs of germplasmconservation; by casting doubt on the status ofthe eitist- BEYOND CONVENTIONAL ing system, the FAO proposalmay actu- c ally slow progress towardthese goals. ..,PFCIES Though national gene banks and'the The 30 or so most familiardomesticated collections of the iple'rhationalagricul- plants and animalsare by no means the tural research centersEificludevast/num- only ,species With usefultraits, Charles bers of varieties air6dy, nu,mberSalone Darwin speculated that the do not guarantee conservation-; plants and Seed animals of unexplored regions.could be Must be periodicallyregenerated, and. bred deliberatelyto reveal "a standard varieties assessed for theiragronomic of perfection comparablewith that ac- qualities. Seed that is leftfor too long quired by the plants incountries an- Conseong Biolggical Diversity (r35) ciently civilized.38 As new technologies A tecluvological revoltition in the live- for breeding and improving species stock industry of the industrial world emerge, unconventional livestock and may make the use, and indirectly the plants are likely to make a growing con- conservation, of these unconventional tribution to the world's food security. species far quicker and more widespread Among the most -promising candi- than otherwise possible. Artificial insem- dates for enhancing animal husbandry ination and in vitro'fertilization can cross are species used by traditional cultures parents fromdifferent continents. Freez- throughout tlw i,orld. Although coun- ing and transporting embryos and im- tries in the temperate zone know cattle, planting them in surrogate mothers may horses, pigs, and sheep, the familiar permit Introduction of some species to breeds of these animals perform poorly countries where quarantine regulations in the heat 'al-id huMidity of the tropics. bar the entry of adults. Researchers at Animals like the banteng of Indonesia, the University of Florida, for example, the mithan of southeast and centrAl Asia, hope to import babirusa embryos from and the yak that is native to high _alti- Indonesia and implant them in domestic tudes of the Tibetan plateau offer a har- pigs to study the animal's potential for diness and adaptation to harsh enpron- domestication.'" ments that cattle cannot match. They Wild species are poorly dociunexued, can also breed with cattle, producing ex- knowledge of valuable hybrids is Spotty, otic hybrids like Indonesia's madivo, and no one agency coordinates world- which can run as fast as a horse, and,wide eflOrts to improve livestock species yakows, which combine the hardiness of or conserve their wild relatives. Accord- yaks with the higher milk,-,duction of ing to the United Nations Environment cattle." Programme (UNEP), "animal genetic re- Another step removed from these ex- sources have been seriously.eglected otic but already domesticated,species are by comparison with plant genc re- wild animals related to domestics, whose sources. "4Attempting to fill th. potential contribution to food supplies is UNEP and FAO recently !antic d ari al virtually unknown. A primitive bovine nual bulletin on animal g neticre- called the kouprey, which wanders the sources, and the Board on Sc nce and rugged war-torn border between Thai- Technology kr Internationalevelop- land and Kampuchea, is even larger than ment of the National Research Council domestic cattle and may be resistant to in the United States has supported a se- rinderpest, a devastating livestock dis ries of projects on unconventional, ani- ease. Though the kouprey is on the brink mals and farming systems The surface ocextinction, occasional reports suggest has barely been scratched on this subject that somemay stiffexist in the wild.:Less of enormous potential benefit to rural threatened, thh hardly .lesA exotic, families throughouthird the piglike babirusa Indonesia has an Paralleling researclIkrs' interest in un- extra stomach sac that may be a rumen, 'conventionttl livestock, plant scientists allowing the animal to forage and thrive are investigating staple crops and vege- without the grain and high-quality feed tables that have been planted for mil; that hogs require. Since. they tame easily, lennia but overlooked in recent genera- babirusas may prove to be ...a valuable tions. One such crop is Anima, which source of animal protein in poor rural once complemented corn as a staple of areas where grain cannot be spared for the Inca empire in the South American feed." highlands. Recent surveys hay( found

9 t (136) , State vitt& World-1985 that the plant, shill grown by traditional ing oils and petrochemicals, theyreprel highlanc$ communities, has a high pro- sent substitutions that will becotne corn- tem content and an amino acid balance mon in the years ahead." their compares favorably with milk, Its . A new commercial crop from the exceptional drought resistance and pro- world's arid areas isguayule, a wild duc'tivity on saline and alkaline soils sug- shrub that produces a rubber virtually gest that quinoa may once again become indistinguishable frorja natural rubber. an 'important crop in marginal areas.43 Among the plant's virtues are its ability Amaranth, a staple food of the AzteeS, to thrive in water-short desert areas and

is now being studied in Mexico, Africa, . its potential role as a second line of de- India, Southeast Asia, and the United limse against the genetic uniformity of States. Amaranth seed comes closer than the world's crop of rubber trees in Dra-. any of the major cereal grains to provid- zil, Indonesia, and Malaysia. G,uayule ing people with a full supply of amino promise; a new source, of export earn- acids,- and the leaves are Oible as a ings to countries seeking productive gree'n vegetable as well. In 1981 the In- uses of arid lands." terriational Board cor Plant Genetic Re- Despite humanity's dependence on a sources surveyed the. status of amaranth variety of tree species for fuelwood, fod- germplasm and implemented a global der, -buiftlingsmaterials, and medicines, plan of collection and preservation, for the genetic resources of forest species current holdings 'in the United States, have never been systematically evalit-' India, and Nigeria are far from tom- flied. Although the wild relatives of some plete.44 crops like grain sorghum and rye can The oil price increases of the seventies survive and even thrive on disturbed

focused attention on the plant kingdom, land, slower-growing trees with intricate , as a potential source of substitutes for ecological relationships often succumb fossilfuels and petrochemicals. The to environmental disturbance, and valu- searchp.as alteady begun to pay off. able forms can be lost. Jojoba, a succulent plant native to the Conservation of treegeneticre-.. dert of the American Southwestt bears sources will require the creation of for - ,see that can be pressed to yield an in- est prJserves. Afthough many tree seeds dusttialoil comparable in quality to can be preserved in gene banks,regene- sperm whale oil. The cost of jojoba oil rating seed and evaluating the useful' has declinedteadily, and output is six- -properties of mature trees_ can take

pected to reach a million gallons by IMO decades. Natural stands that have desir- . in the United States alone. Vepiottia Oki- able characteristics such ,as drought re- mensis, a plant native to east Africa, as -a sislance are 'ohm highly. localized,. so natural source of epoky acid, a material populations must be surveyed and useful used in the Manufacture of polyvinyl gene pools prekrved. The National Re- chloride. They:S. market for epoxy oils search council published a systematic is estimated at $100 million, and..a U.S. review of fuelwood species in the tropics Department of Agriculture plant explo- in 1983, but thus far tic) one has offered ration officer who evaluated thiS ver- to coordinate a worldwide effort to iden- nonia bas suggested it be cultivated in tify and preserve usefill tree gerinplasm.. Zimbabwe, where it might become a sub- Meanwhile, valuable gene pools disap- stantial. export crop and an important pear as land is cleare4d, ubarl areas ex- source of foreign exchange. Though pand, arid lands are degraded, and for- these .examples seem inconsequential estsaredisruptedthroughoutthe beside the world's vast flows of lubicat- world.47 1

Conserving Biological. Diversity (137) WOTECHNOLOGY AND development, The genes'that makeup the' chromosomes- of-wheat and of flu- mans are made of the same building Ri.difi f a wave of scientific discovery. and blot.k4 and operate actording to similar financial e thusiasm, developers otgene rug" Thereisnothing new about splicing a they biotechnologies have manipulating genes; is mentionedear - annotate ew era in which a diversity lie ', breeders have introduced andelimi- of species Haigenes will supply a host of nated genes from domesticated- species goods and services. Some applications for thousands of;-yea:s. Biotechnologies of biotechnology can capitalizeon the enable scientists to sidestepsex, to alter variability within life forms; othersmay heredity more quickly and withmore intensify the pressures that modern agri- precision than natural breeding permits. culture has br ught to bear on wild rela- In some cases this involves manipulating tiVes and tra4i Tonal varieties ofcrops, genetic material itself; in others, scier- hastening th tists work with complete cells tocross disappearance. Yet if the barriei-s that prevent reproduction practitioners see that a commitmentto the conservation of living diversity will between distinct species, changing the serve their interests and ensure the fa- context in which genetic material is ex- -.Lute. of this nascent industry, earth's pressed without rearranging thegews themselt;es. myriad speciesmay become more se- - cure. Some of,the researchers in applied biotechnology are Well aware that much of Gene splicing techniquesmay los, the future potential oltheir work deter die conservation of species by pends on access to the 'rich genetic, diver- making eT/otic and endangeredspe; sity in nature. Dr. Winston J. Brill of cies., directly valuable.. Agracetus notes: "The accelerated destruction of the gee pool is doubly ironic. if is caused primarily by thecleat- Gene splicing techniques ma". foster ing of land iii.the tropical rain forest for the conservation of species by making farming: Moreover, itis happening at exotic and endangered species directly the dawn of an age in which such genetic valuable. Ilk most widespread applica- wealth, until now a relatively inaccessi- tion of this technology so far has been ble trust fund, is becominga currency the insertion of genes for desired sub- with high immediate value."48 Usefulas stances into bacteria, whose metaboliini such a perception is, it overlooks the fact cantle commandeered to produce inter- that traditional varieties and the wild feron and other valuable chemicals int relatives of cultivatedcrops, the gene large quantity in fermentation tanks. pools most likely to, prove immediately Given the thousands of plant and animal useful in biotechnological applications, species that produce useful drugsor are threatened more by the spread of chemicals, gene splicing, mayencourage modern crop varieties to existing fields the preservatibn of useCAI geneticvarie- than by the clearing of new land. , ties while reducing the pressure to har- The unique potential of the biotech- vest plants indiscrimmitely to supply a nologies stems from theinsight thatun- desired substance. derlying nature's diversity isa unity in One techniqOethat can assist thecon, the way genetic material encodes andex- servation of threatened plants by making, presses the instructions for growth and it easier to screen them for usefulprop-

4 152 ' 7, '

(138) State of the114r1d--1985 erties is tissue or cell culture, With this a petri dish. Selecting useful plains still method, a single plant cell stripped of its requires that they be grown out, a pro- rigid cell wall can be multiplied into a cess that takes land, labor, and time! mass of undifferentiated cells called a While tissue culture can elicit genetic. callus, which is then induced to grow diversity from the cells oil a single plant, into a mature plant. The technique al- a technique. called protoplast fusion allows thousands of cells from a single lows the genetically distinct cells of two plant to become "parents" of a new -gen- species to be Combined Mtg. one. Proto- eration. While in the single-cell or tissue plast fusion merges two plant cells from stage, cultures can be easily screened for which the cell walls have been removed. traits such as resistance to herbicides When plants are then regenerated, the and disease toxins. An astonishing fea- resultis an interspecies hybrid that ture of tissue culture is that the process could not be produced by conventional releasesgeneticvariationinplants breeding. Curious combinations like the derived front the same 'parent; cultured "pomato" have been produced, but the plants could in some cases help reconsti- complex genetics involved in combining tute genetic variation in rare or overhar- distinct species seldom results in a viable vested species.4 9 hybrid with useful traits. Protoplast fu- Tissue culture also offers a way to pro- sion may be more useful for combining duce plant compounds whose genetic in- genes from related species that do not structions are too complex to be spliced intkrbreed successfully; the technique into bacteria. An endangered flower could speed the introduction of useful from Madagascar, the rosy periwinkle, traits from wild relatives into cropt, pro- supplies two drugs valuable in -treating vidikig yet another incentive to collect leukemia and Hodgkin's disease. At the and conserve wild varieties." University of British Columbia,.cultured The most powerful technique of plant cells of the rosy periwinkle are being biotechnology is recombinant DNA, or grown in 1,00-liter batches, and their an- gene splicing. The ability to introduce ticancer cOmpounds are being isolated. specific genes into plant cells depends If the technique is a commercial success; on the identification of useful genes in it will offer a compelling reason for con- other species, the cloning of copies in serving the species in the wild: The ge- bacteria, the transfer of the new material netic diversity of wild populationsis into cultured plant cells using an infec- likely to harbor. individual plants that tive bacteria or virus, and the regenera- prOduce more effective or more easily tion of a transformed adult plant. In extracted forms of the drugs.6° principle, genes from almost any source Despite tissue culture's advantages in could be transfer:red into plants this way; quickly selecting useful plant varieties, in practice,' identifying useful traits -that some. of the most important cultivated will be expressed in their new cellular plants cannot yet be consistently regene- environment in just the 'right way is per- rated in a laboratory. Standard tech- haps the most difficult step. As two niques do not exist to regenerate wheat, prominent plant scientists point out, the corn or soybeans. A more funda4ental techniques themselves do not help ati difficulty,with tissue cultur=e is the prob- swer the most basic question: "What lem of selecting useful agronomic traits genes can we transfer into plants that at the single-cell or tissue level. Some of will improve a cr species?"" the most important traits of crop per- RecombinantNA increases the like- formancearecharacteristiconlyof lihood that tras like disea4 resistance wholeilants and cannot be idtibtified in or drought terance will be transferred Conserving Biological Diversity from wild species into cultivated crops. symbigtic bacteria may be the best ay As with the other biotechnologies dis! to quicty use the natural genetic dir- cussed, substantial -roadblocks remain. sity of both.04 No bacteria or virus has yet been found The use of microbes and the direct that can, raqsfer DNA reliably into the mar* lation of higber organisms are most important members of the grass bathping applied tb ,.ilnitual husbandry firmly, which include the world's major ax ell. Since almost all the methods of cereal grains. Improvements in corn, applying biotechnology to annuals could wheat, and rice will only conic from con- be used on humans. this raises widely ventional plant breeding for some time discussedethicalquestions.Biotech to come." nologics likely to be _applied to animal The holy 061 of plant biotechnology husbandry range-froln the design and is the transfer of genes for nitrogen fixa- production of new vaccines `to the actual non from bacteria to plants so that non- transfer of genes between species, yet legumes like corn or wheat can thrive the technologies with the greatest im- without artificial fertilizer. The process plications for biological diversity involve_ is dauntinglkcomplex. Seventeen sepa- engineering the normal reproductive. rate genes of the bacterium Klebsiella process. pneumoniae encode the instructions for Building on the accomplishments of nitrogen fixation; although these genes ,artificial inseinination, the most corn- Ir have been successfully transferred into a mon new techniques speed the pace and variety of yeast, whose cells resemblde extend the reach of genetic change in those of higher plants more than bacte- livestock. Embryo transfer can turn prize ria, the yeast conot -fix nitrogen. The cows into "superonkit.ors,- generating nitrogenfixation carriedout by 40 or more calves'a rear without actually Rhizolnum bacteria in the root nodules of having to give birth. Although this corn - legumes is even more complicatedyAnd presses the time in Which a herd can be less likely to be successfully integrated Improved with the genetic traits of supe- into the metabolism of plant cells." rior parents, it also hastens the elilokina- Although itseldom captures head- tion of unidentified, potentially useful lines, engineering the microorgarriSms genetic traits from a herd. Cryogenic that coexist with plants holds more im- techniques first used 30 years ago to mediate potential for improving agricul- store bull semen for artificial insemina- ture than splicing- the genes of crops tion are now being used to freeze viable .themselVes. This approach capitalizes on sperm, unfertilized eggs, and even em- di?, extensive knowledge of how to ma- bryos themselves. A particular genetic nipulate microbial systems and on the constitution can be stored indefinitely, fact that microorganisms are far simpler transported worldwide, and used when than plants. Sonic important opportuni- needed, much plant germplasm is ties lie in improving the nitrogen-fixing conserved And used today, The transfer ability- of rhizobia, ,transferring the abil- of embryos into surrogate mothers, in ity to fix nitrogen from rhizobia into some cases mothers of entirely different bacteria that might be induced to 'attach species, evenprovidesa new way to themselves to corn roots, and enhancing propagate some endangered species in the ability of some soil microorganisms zoos." to isolate soil chemicals that can pro- All these techniques are currently ex- mote bacterial and fungaldiseases. pensive and rely 'on sophisticated tech- Combining conventional plant breeding nology. Not all animal species are suited with the genetic manipulation of plants' to such manipulations; while doniestic ( ',to) Stale of theWorldI9g5 J animals have been bred for thousands of japan, the United Kingdom. the United years for their reproductive hardiness. States, and West icerany) have so far wild species often prove infertile incap- been reluctant to support the project, tivity, Nonetheless, the abilk of breed- reportedly wary of stimulating competi- toproduce and transporMmbryos to tion in a field in which they have a de- order will generate a worldwide business cided. technical lead. that has been estimaLed at $1 billion a On a more modest scale, a network is year by the end ofthe'eighties. The po- already in place to encourage the con- tential market for biotechnology' pro- servation and use of microbiological re- ducts in the livestock industry,-$7.5 bil- sources within the Third World.. Spon- I lionin1981is growing by15-20 Sored by UNESCO, the United Nations percent each yeit08 Environment Programme, and' the Inte- nationalCell Research Organization,. thisMicrobiological R ISOtfrCe Center Constraints on fresh w er and (MIRCEN) network was rented to "'pre vs electricity supplies may s w the serve microbial gene p s and make them accessible to developing coun- development of biotechno ogy in tries." The 12 MIRCEN cei'iters, from the Third World. Guatemala to Thailand, produce cata- logs and maintain COIICCOOM of impor- tantmicrobial strains.Brazil. Kenya. MOst of the'research and all the com- Senegal, and the United States host cm-. mercial development of biotechnology ters with a primary focus op nitrogen- has taken place in industrial countries, fixing .bacteria; others conduct research but many developing countries arc real- and training in applied biotechnology. izing that 0n new technologies could The informal MIRCEN network, already help them solvc\sdnie of the health, en- effective in the Third WoAd, provides a ergy, and agricyltural problems that foundation for technology transfer 'that slow their development. Several institu- the controversial UNIDO center seems tions have been proposed to speed the unlikely to replace." application of biqtechnologytothe Even if industrial countries can be in- needs of poor countries and train scien- duced to share their expertise with de- tists from the Third World; the best veloping countries, constraints on fresh knownistheinternationalbiotech- water and electricity supplies may slow nology center of the United Nations In- the development of biotechnology in the dustrial Development Organization Third World. The Organisation for Eco- (UNIDO). First proposed in 1981, the nomic Co-operation and Development center was intended 'to broaden the (OECD) found that the, scarcity and high (bens of biotechnology. research, which cost of water prompted the closing of until then only addressed 'the problems two Israeli beet.stigar factories. QECO of industrial countries." concluded th4"the introduction of pro- India and Italy have beet chosen to cesses based on biotechnology may de- host two "campuses" of the UNIDO cert- pend on other technologies concerned ter. and other countries may be able tq with the production of fresh water."" affiliatetheirnationalbiotechnology Since' most of the laboratory equipment programs with the training and research used in the sophisticated work of splic- efforts of the center. Unfortunately, al- ing, transferring, and expressing desired though Italy has provided funds, other genes also requires.electricitym uncer- prospective donor countries (France, taintieA in its supply or overtaxed na- Conserving BiologicalDiversity tional electrical grids could also compro- by private companies have been post- mise the development of national_ bi- poned pending an assessment of the en- otechnology- programs in many poor vironmental impart of releasing geneti- countries." cally engineered organisms. Aside from kfelpfithe Third World to overcome disputes over whether the National fristi- the constraints that impede biotech- tutes of, health (which has informally nology may be in the long -run interest of regulated recombinant DNA research the commercial biotechnology industry' since 1974) should conduct the environ- of the United States, Europe, and Japan. mental review, and over which other fed- Many of the likely applications of Mo- eral agencies-have authority to regulate technology in developing countries biotechnology in the United States, a providing Niel substitutes for oil and more fundamental question has been fuelwood, improving the performance of raised over just how to assess the poten- crops, upgrading the quality of food tial environmental implications of the Can reduce the pressures of overharvest- new technology.. ing and environmental degradation that Scientists disagree about the impact of I currently threaten the very genetic re- releasing genetically engineered organ- sources of wild populations that the in- istns. Advocates point out that plants or dustry needs to draw on. flew of these microorganisms in which single genes wild gene pools, the raw material for fu- have been altered cannot be compared ture medicines, foods, and fuels, are to introduced pests, such as the. fungus likely to survive intact wheye people that causes Dutch elm disease or the must struggle to provide basic needs. Gypsy moth; they argue that spliced Since the first laboratory experiments genes are ruled by the same biological Involving genetic engineering a decade laws that govern 'genes introduced by ago, the possible release of genetically conventionalplantbreeding. Oppo- engineere4rganisms into the environ- nents emphasize that even slight genetic ment has been the focus of considerable changes can alter the checks and bal- debate making it difficult to specs me ances that ordinarily keep natural popu- too much on the technology'i eventual lations in check." impact.on efforts to conservebiological Researchers are unsure even of what diversity. In the mid-seventies, the city questions to ask in evaluating the envi- council of Cambridge, Massachusetts,' rontnental-impactsvof engineeredorgan- voiced concern over thepossible inad- isms; tt,tere are few ways. to predict or vertent escape of engineered microbes anticipate the complex ecological effects from the laboratories where theywere on -which regulators must base their developed; a careful appraisal of the decisions: Biologists who study ecology, r involved defused the early fears. A physiology, 'and evolution must work be- silrond, more intractable phase of th side geneticists and biochemists to eval- debate was inaugurated with the first uate the risks. Unfortunately, the pace of planned release of genetically modified development of biotechnology is likely bacteria in 1983. to outstrip out,-understanding of ecolog- A proje University .of California ical complexities.64 researcher field-testengineered . These questions about releasing the bacterixth ould retard the formation progeny of genetic engineering serve to of frost: n po to plants was halted by-a remind us that biotechnology is being ederal''oust order in May 1984. Since introduced to3....world of Biological-com- the o at injunction, two tests by Uni- plexity. Lab6iatory resebrchers are just verAity -Of California scientists and three beginning to recognizethe difference

156 (142) State of the i'orld.1985 between the open field and the fermen- genes for human needs we cannot antici- tation tank," writes Winston Brill of pate. The world population, now dou- Agracetus. He cautions that to wide- bling every 40 years, demands that plant stand the role of microbiology in agricul- breeders select traits that increase yields , tore,. "one must begin to_ explore the and harvests. Yet when human popula- subtle question of the interaction of i- tions are stable or growing only slowly. croorganisms with one another and with diversity within a cropa patchwork of the biosphere as a whole-\, '66 As these varietiesmay better suit human needs. connections become better understood, The availability of they diversity will de- a biotechnology attentive to natural his- pend on conservation choices made tory may provide some of the most pow- now. erful tools to reduce the pressures on Presentknowledgeaboutspecies genetic resources and enhance the value losses and ecosystem functions, though and conservation of wild species. incomplete, is sufficient to target conservation efforts and to anticipate likely changes. The emerging science of conservation biology, the branch of biology that deals with the loss' of diversity, is SETTING CONSERVATION rapidly enrichingthisknowledge. A guiding discipline is "conservation gen- PRIORI-11ES etics," which studies the potential of species to survive and 'evolve in parks "We cannot manage the biosphere in and tvanaged areas. Scientists can esti- detail," points out George Woodwell, mate the size of animal populations that Director of the Ecosystems Center at the will preserve a desired amount of ge- Marine Biological Laboratory at Woods netic diversity and can Witsee biological Hole. Acknowledging the limits to our losses. For example, 17ne study of the understanding of living systems may be populationgeneticsandecological the first step toward conserving biologi- needs of la ge animals suggests that cal diversity. Although the exact mech- even the lag st protected areas are un- anisms of extinction may elude us, we likely, without intensive management, to know enough to abandon the idea that sustain viable populations of predators mass extinctions in coming years are in- such as the wolf and mountain lion as evitable. Efforts to slow extinctions well as large mammals including ele- particularly in the trouical forests, where phants, virtually guaranteeing their ex.- the greatest number are at the highest tinction in the wild within the next cen- riskand to rein in the forces that en- tury. Recognizing the kinds of species danger species will conserve both bio- unlikely to survive in the wild, managers logical and human opportunities. 66 can better allocate scarce conservation The goal of a conservation strategy hinds between efforts to slow the demise 'must be to ensure thajevolution contin- of some species and to maintain others ues. Allowing for the play of natural that seem able to adapt,67 forces by which both wild and domestic Much of the information needed to set species evolve will maintain gene pools conservation priorities can be had rather and retain genetic traits that may prove cheaply. Conservationist Norman Myers Valuable in the future. Aside froin the _suggests that a.systematic biological in- biological wisdom of protecting species' ventory of the remaining tropical forests capacity to adapt, it makes sense to pre- could be completed by the end of the serve a constellation of speCies and eighties at a cost °Oust $5 million a year. Coaserving logical Diversity (x43) In a project with an annual budget of otts regions. In addition, the organiza- $40,000,researchersRichard Evans tion provides data on 250 of a suspected Schultes and Mark J. Plotkin of Harvard 20,000-25,000 threatened plants and on -University's_Botanical Museum are com- over 400 threatened invertebrates to il- piling a comprehensive index of the lustrate the pressures on those kroups." plants..used by native, peoples of the Am- Endangered species (those prone to azon and the Atlantic rain forest of east- disappearance over all or twist of their ern Brazil. By highlighting plants with natural range) and threatened species known. physiological effects, thwork (whose populations arc declining and could become an essential reference for consideredlikelyto become endan- biotechnology companies seeking po- gered)areidentifieflaccordingto tential new products. This pioneering broader criteria than ev >r before. Cate- research provides a tn41t4- for similar gories introduced in th IUCN's inverte- surveys in other regions, a rationale for bratebookinclud "commercially conserving little-known plants, and a threatened" speciesrose numbers are basis for a more secure future for native depleted by overhary ;ting, andthreat peoples.°8 ened communities" or complexes of Since Darwin's time, biologists have specie§ that are jeopi dized by the §arite known that species becoMe rare before forces and that must be protected as a they become extinct and that, once rare, group."A number of countries over the species are vulnerable to dAappearance. ast decade have taken steps toward list- Discounting or ignoring rarity makes us ing endangered species, .,many in re- accomplicestoextinction.Protestit sponse to the Conventitfh on Interna- this shortsightedness, Darwin noted t t tional Trade in Endangered Species of to accept rarity but express surprisat Flora and Fauna, Although this is an im- extinction "is much the same as to admit portant development, few national lists that sickness in the individual is the fore- are sufficiently detailed, and fewer coun- runner of death---to feel no surprise at tries provide legislative protections as sickness, but, when the sick man dies, to strict as those in Canada, the Soviet wonder and to suspect that he died by Union, or the United States." sonic deed of violence."" Inventories 'of rare and endangered species can thus illuminate pressures Discountingor ignoringrarity and suggest preservation priorities. On 5 makes us accomplices to extinc- global scale, the most important lists tion. have been compiled by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Red Data Books have been published for birds, mam- In 1973, the Endangered Species Ad mals, amphibians and reptiles, plantS, mandated listing and extended U1S. and,- most recently, invertebrates. 'Viten Government protection to species con- volumes, which provide samplings of sidered "endangered." LiSting and man- species known to be endangered in cliff, agemem have been pursued simultane- erent regions rather than exhaustive ously,waxing and wanin according to lists, guide national and private preser- administration priorities` the law vation efforts.AUCN currently lists 145 was enacted, During thettst decade of mammals, 437 birds, and 69 amphibians protection, the U.S. Office.of Endan- and reptiles from selected groups known gered -Species favored the listing and to be endangered or threaten en vari- protection- of vertebrates over insects, (r44) 4 State of the World-1985 mollusks, and plants. By 1984, nearly 60 Amazonian development projects be left percent of the species receiving federal in trees. Scientists arranged with ranch- protection as endanged or threatened ers to set aside the necessary forest in were vertebrates, while of tti being, reserves rangiqc in size from 1 to 10,000 considered for listing, plants Atlin- hectares. The re4iaitting primary forest vertebrates outnumberedvertebrates in the area was cut and burned to estab- nine to ohe. (See Table 6-4.) In May lish cattle ranches. Burning degrades 1984, the U.S. Department of Interior much of the area and isolates remnant broke with the past livid 'identified 876 forest patches. Both tV outright de- invertebrates deserving immediate list- struction and the isolation lead toa de- ing or further study." cline in forest species. The Minimum Future efforts to protect species and Critical Size project studies these forest to prevent rare ones from slipping to- fragments to learn what happens when ward extinction will depend ona deeper the habitat of a species shrinks below the understanding of the biology of rarity size needed to sustain it." and extinction and a sense of how This new brand of ecological research human interactions with the biosphere attempts to understand not just anun- affectthem.One, ambitiousstudy, derlyingbiological system but theway started in 1979 in the Amazon Basin that system is affected by changing land near Manaus, Brazil, hopes to reveal the uses. The project will yield results over kinds of changes in biological diversity several decades, for the species changes that can be anticipated as aconsequence in the largest forest fragments areex- of development patterns. The Minimum pected to occur far more slowly than in CriticalSizeof Ecosystems project, the patches of a few hectares. results sponsored jointly by the World Wildlife should provideasharper sense Of the Fund-U.S. and the Brazilian National In- biological consequences of land clearing stitute for Amazonian Research, was ini- in Amazonia, and the relative sun/I of tiated to investigate how specie'num- species in the` various fores ments bers would Change in patches of primary will confirm conservationriorities in forest as surrounding land was cleared the size and location of protectedareas. by ranchers for livestock. Yet researchers caution that all thecon- The study was made possible bya Bra- clusions are ecosystem-dependent: The zilian law requiring that half the land in study will shed light on cliangt-lii the

Table 6.4. United States: Listing of Endangeredor Threatened Specks, 1984 Under Consideration Category Endangered Threatened Total for Listing (number ofspecies) Vertebrates 152 34 186 363 Inyertebratesl 28 6 43 401 Insects 7 6 13 475 Plants 63 11 74 2,588 111101.4105 Ma mall, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fishes.tExcludes insects. souttcts: Mich1 Bender, U.S. Depattmentof Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Office of Endangered Species, private communication, July 30, 1984;Defenders' f Wildlife,Saving Hndangetrd Species: A Report issd Plan for Action (Washington, D.C.; 1984).-

4- 159 Conserving biological Diversity forests of Amazonia, but the lessons changes would affect the distribution of from Brazil may not apply in Zaire or tropical vegetation and alter ecosystems; India. some park areas might become unsuik No effort: islikely, to contribute as able for the species they were intende much to the conservation of living diver- to protect. To these global climatic fac- sity as the creation of parks and other tors must be added the local effect that protected areas where complete living disrupting large areas of natural forest communities can continue to evolve. has on efforts to keep small forest rem- Given the pace of land-use change in in- nants intact.76 dustrial and developing countries alike, Some ecologists argue that existing the absolute size of areas set aside now and prospective parks are insufficient to is critically important for the future. A protect a critical share of the world's 1982 listing by the United Nations re- tropical forests. Ira Rubinoff, director of ported just under 400 million hectares the Smithsonian Institution's Tropical protected in national parks and pre- ResearchInstitute,has proposed a serves, slightly more than half asmuch worldwide system of tropical moist for- as planted to cereal cropsworldwide. est preserves to protect 10 percent of During the seventies, the number of remaining' tropical forests, which would s park areas tripled.Different ecological he about 100 million hectares. He sees zones, however, enjoy vastly different this as the minimum area needed to pre- degrees of protection. And the amount serve existing forest types and keep for- of land safeguarded'in a particular coun- est management options Sen. Only try says nothing of he ecologicil signifi- about 4 percent of Africa's forests, 2 per, cance of the areas preserved.7{ cent of Latin America's, anilpercent of +. A little more, than a quarter of the those of tropical Asia are-Protected; not :world's area in parks is in "biosphere all of these are rain foieSts.77 reserves," areas of special ecological In a somewhat parallel fashion to the importance designated as part of a redefinition of parks, the concept of worldwidenetworkcoordinated by gene bat must be broadened. Efforts UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere pro- to identiffthe genetic resources of natu- gram. Although the UNESCO system is ral population's- are as critical as better far from complete, it is the foundation of management and use of the germplasm a preservation strategy based onthe cdllections in which seeds and plant. ma- great variety of the world's ecosystems. terial are stored. "In, situ" gene banks A logical place to focus efforts to protect should be established to complenient ar- the greatest biological diversity in the tificial collections, In- addition, certain smallest area is the species rich 're- kinds of "invisible" gene banks must be fuges" described earlier 4n this chapter. investigated; for example, since seeds of The government of Brazil has created Many plants survive in the soil long after over eight million hectares of preserves their parent plants have been harvested, in Amazonian areas known to be re- valuable genetic resources can be lost by fuges. Though similar 'pockets- of forest lincontrolled soil erosion on agricultural area have been identified intropical and and cleared forestland.78 Africa, they are not yet the target of con- The success of future efforts to con- large servation efforts." . serve biological diversity rests to a extent on whether they can be recon- . One grave threat to existing protected areas may be shifts in global climate as- ciled with development policy. The sociated with increased dependence on World Bank took an important step in fossil ftels. Temperature and moisture pthis' direction in 1984 by adopting envi-

1.00 (146) State of the Wm Id-1985 *ronmental guidelines for its lendingpro- fairs,argues forceffilly that much de- gram; the Bank has committed itselfto struction of tropical forests has refuse to finance economic resulted development front a long -slat lingunderpricing of projects that willcause irreversible envi- tropical sr in comparison with other ronmental deterioration, includingspe- uses ropical forestland. He advocates cies extinctions. Nationaldevelopment -pric' g thtSzsource closerto its value efforts should reappraise the valueof b Teating an Organization of their remaining wild Timber areas, which are to ..xporting Countries, madeup of the 17 often considered blankspaces on the nations that hold 92percent of the ex- map. Hundreds of thousands of hectaresport trade in tropical timbers and 90 of forests have been clearedby farm percent of remaining tropical forests. families participating in massivetrans- Guppy anticipates thata price rise would migration and land settlementprograms reduce demand for tropical forestpro- in Indonesia and Brazil, despiteindica- ducts and througha systeM of taxation, tions that most of this landcannot be generate revenues sufficient tocover the continuously cultivatedonce the fbrest is estimated annual costs of $75-219 cleared. bil- Addressingtheunderlying lion For human .settlement,reforesta- causes of pressure on fbrestsin these tion, and improvedmanagement of for- cases, population growth that hasoutrun est resourcescosts far Water than economic opportunities in otherregions either that of managing forestreserves is the only way options for thesustain- or current levels of aid to tropical (level- able uses of'forests will bepreserved.79 opment.si Many of the most ambitious efforts to r- These examples from the tropicshold protect biological diversity recognize a lesson that applies anywhere: Biologi- that conservation goals will bethwarted cal resources will only be until the value of biological -conserved resources is when their prices reflect theirintrinsic more, widely acknowledged. Onesure value. The growing demandfor genetic way to focus international attentionon diversity in agriculture and the this issue is to require financial emerging support. applications of biotechnologiessuggest Ira Rubinoff proposes financingthe sys- that elusive values willcome into sharper tem of tropical forest reserves witha economic focus in theyears ahead. Evo- progressive tax voluntarily assumedby lutiontas progressed unmanaged for the 43 countries whoseper capita in- 3 years, bui its future path is come exceeds $1,500. He maintains that be shaped by human forces.In this $3-billion annual investmentby the th of Sir Otto Frankel, "we have industrial countries would bean invest- acqud evolutionary responsibility."82 ment in future world security for rich It would be and poor notions alike.80 tragedy if our failure to exercise this responsibility left thenext Nicholas Guppy., writing in ForeignAf- Darwin with nothing to writeabout.

161 1

Increasin Y. Energy Efficiency

Q. &NamU Chandler

Ancient prophets tried to predict the fu- the greater the urgency of avirtingfor, ture with geornancy, a method of divina- est destruction by acid rain and climatic tion by drawing dots at random on change from carbon dioxide buildup.2 paper. Energyforecasts,notorioers4% The wider the error in projected de- inaccurate, have been likened to this ap- mand, the greater the waste of 'scarce proach. For alltheir flaws, however, resources and the worse the failure to studies of energy futures contine* to provide for human needs. command attention. They help define The energy events pf the seventies the "state of the world" by exploring caused great- upheavals in world energy /- where current trends willtlead. They in- markets--caused, in. effect, a conserva- l fluence visions of the energy future\ tion revolution. Like the Green Revolu- affect research and develaipment expen- tion in agriculture,` conservation allowed ditures, inhibit or encourage investment a brief respite from shortages,Itilas pro- in energy supply system's, and thus be- duced an oil glut, price, declines, and come battlegrounds for the futureit- time to adjust. But the would of the mid- self I eighties has relaxed, as it did after the The trends that energy forecasters'Green Revollion, failing perhaps to now draw on paper can affect the en- make permanent the gains won. A san- tire planet, from Latin AmeriCan debt to guine outlook pervades the energy corn - global climate. The higher the predicted triunity as forecasters again draw curves demand for energy, the higher the cost energy growth bending toward the of building systems to meet it. The tops. of ,theirjraphs. Some ,suggest a greater the predicted demand for coal, tripling bf demand by 2025.3 If these visions become reality, the world will pay An expanded version of this chapter appeared as Worldwatch Paper 63, Energy Productivity: Kgto En- an enormous economic and environ- vironmental Protection and Eco!omic Progress. mental price.

1 6 o (148) Sreneof the World-1985 , THE BURDEN OF ENERGY would be eradicated, fertile bottomlands destroyed, forests inundated, and r ' DEMAND water supplies warmed, depleted ofoxygen, Not since the earlyiseventies haveana- and loaded with silt.() lysts so conaplacerlitys projecteda high The economic prospect ofa high en- energy demand future. Alan Manne of ergy demand future is similarily wrap- Stanford University attributes this,espe-*,pealing. Much Third World' debt has cially the similarity Of most officialen- been incurred to financeenergy imports. ergy demand projections, to "the herd Foreign payments for oilconsume the instinct that operates within thecommu- largest share of total export earnings for nity of energy analysts."4 Nevertheless, many countries, including half those of japan and prazil.. Expensive hydroelec- the COVIS-CIASUS is that worldwidecom- tric and nuclear mercial energy demand willincrease energy systems have from about 300 exajoules (CD) in 1983to added to this reservoir of debt. More- 485 Ej by the year 2000. (Commercial over, meeting world.. energy demand is energy excludes dung and firewood, expected to consumeover 7 percent all capital investment for the which total approximately 50 EJ. Anex- rest of thisthis ajoule is the equivalent of 163 million decade.7

Nib barrels of oil, or almost1 quadrillion WI-U-.) The physical 'Magnitude of this scenario numbs the mind. If thiscqmes Just using the most efficient lights tip pass, the oil output oftwo new Saudi in the United States wouldsave a Arabias will be needed. In addition, the third of U.S. coal-fired electricen- coal production of the world will almost ergy. double, and three timesas many rivers must be impounded behind hydroelectric dams. Widely cited projections con- This Aict re of the future isas altera- clude that by theyear 2025 the word will ble as it is unattractive: Energy demand need four-and-a-half times the hydro-. projections are a function of modelers' power and three-and-a-half times the expectations about prices, environmen- coal used today, along witha total of 365 tal regulations, and the ability of the . large nuclear power plants. Moreover, world to respond toenergy conserva- they typically forecast a 125 percent in- tion's potential. They repeesent these crease in energy demand by then.5 analysts' COnteptions of how the world Among the. consequences of usingso works, not necessarily of- how it could much energy would begreater risk of work. All serious projectionsare made acid rain, carbon dioxide-induced cli- with models that expose the.assump- mate change, species extinction, water tions that determine their results. One degradation, human dislocation, and role of models, in'fact, is to maketrans- capital shortages and debtcOnnections parent the energy supply, demand, and discussed at length in Chapters 1, 5, and policy consequences that nations face. 6. Tripling coal use, for example, could Most models of worldwideenergy de- triple total sulfur.dioxide emissions and mand are, by necessity, macroeconomic. in 40 years cause serious acid rain prob- Thatis,they concentrate bn broad lems in areas all over the globe. And the trends in population, economicoutput, radical doelopment of hydroelectric energy prices, and the interrelationships power wouldseriously affect freshwater among these factors. The high energy environments: Fish and mollusk species demand future that they describecan be

163 Increasing .Energy Efficiency (049) contrasted with the high conservation' tries, containing about 65 percent of the potential consistently demonstrated in world's populatiofi, are responsible for econdmic-engineering models and ana- about 80 percent of all commercial en- lyses, suich as those that show the specific ergy use. (See ,Table' 74.) Among thOe possiblhties of efficiency in steel-nt king are developing countries, stkb As Bina, or automobiles. The world has b, rely China, and Indianations that hale a cut into the cons4rvation potential.ii- legitimate claim, to greater total energy dustry, transportAiofi, and Jhousing use. 'Industrial countries, on the other Main inefficient, Conservation possibilt haw!, can substantially raise industrial ties are so great that econmnic growth output, passenger and freight transpor- could resume without large increasesin tation, and household services without total energy'use. Simply by slowly adopt- greatly increasing energy demand. A sin- ing existing measures, the world could/ gle decision in either the Unit edStates cu the projected energy demand growth to raise automobile fuel economy to 40 rate of 2 percent per year almost in half:-\--miles per gallonor the Soviet Union Tlie. global conservation potential can' to produce steel as, efficiently as Japan be illustrated in energy portraits of a doeswould save -is much enemy 1')s, small numberof nations. Some 15 coun- Brazil now Constuncs. Just using the

Tobie 7-1.Energy COnsu It In Selected Countries, 1982

Commercial Per Capita Energy Energy Energy Imports as Country Population Constimption' Consumption Share .ofExports? , (million) (eicajoules3) (gigajoules3) (percent) Argentina 28 1.7 ;61 11 Brazil- 127 .4.0 32 52 Canada 25' 9.7 _395 I I China 1,008 17.9 17 h.a. France - 54 7 8.5 156 33 East Germany 17 231 nm, "alb o India 717 .. 4.9 81 Italy 56 6.2 110 41 J' Pa" 118 15.8 134 48 Mexico 73 ''..- 4.2 58 76 Poland - 36 ,5,0 138 20 Soviet Union .. 270 ,. 55.0 204 77 . f United KingdoM 56 ., 7.7 152 14 United States 232 'ilv-i76.1 324 36 West.Germany .62 41.5 187 23

Total 2,879 232.0 80

World Total. 4.585 300.0 65 'Commercialenergy consun'tptiOn figuresare Worldwatch extrapolations from 1981 data.*A negative figure fridicates the percent of exports earned from oilsales.Mt) vokjoule is one billion billion joules; a gigajoule 'is one billion joules, which approximately equals ImillionBTUs." , . smut= World Bank, Weld Development Report 1981 (New York: OXford University Press, 1984.) ,

1 164 (150) State of theWorld- 98>

most efficient lights in the United States als-- especially iron and steel,alumi`e,

would save a third of U.S. coal-firecfelec- num, paper, chemiIs and concrete -1- . - tric energy.8 Effectimrsuch savings will consumes the-most. Eighty percent of require' great political skill and dexterity. U.S. industrial enegfor example, is But conservation's benefitssavings in used in the immufaCture of these goods.

capital, foreign exchange,_ environment, In 'contrast, agricutute, . whichisin-.' and healthwill put nations that realize eluded under the industrial heading,ac-

itspotentialatan advantage. Con- counts for only 6 percent of sectoral . versely, the pressures of shortages of mand. capital, foreign exchange, and environ- Japan provides a model of industrial mental amenities are likely to forcepeo- energy efficiency; having made 'major ple everywhere to conserve energy. gains since the early seventies. The en- Aiv ergy inKrisities of chemical and .steelt production have dropped by 38 and lfr percent, respectively, since 1973, arid energy use per unit of output has fallen INDUSTRIAL EFFICIENCY in every major industry since 1975. The Japanese soli! between $25 million and GAINS $125 million per year throughout the Industry has provided the largest effi- seventies on energy efficiency in steel ciency gains of any energy-using sector production alone. ,These -investments since World War II. A combination of typically paid for themselves in just two technological improvements and shifts years)' The French industrial sector also ranks from less-efficient coal to natural gas and among the most energy-efficient, and, oil provided industrial cmmtries..withan like Japan, made large improvenients annual 'Fate of conservation improve- after ,1973. Energy intensity ments of over I percent even as energy textiles, a building materials, rubber and plastics, prices declined. This hue tripledin and mechatiical construction fell by more Western nations after- the energy crisis than 30- percent, an annual,rate of im- of 1979. Despite the gains, however, an provement (Amore than 3.5 percent. En- enormous potential for cutting energy orgy efficiency in paper and steel produc- costs still remains in existing plants, and tion increased at more than 2.5 percent builders anew production facilitiescan per year over the same period: r s choose equipment and processes that In the United States, rorWattasIM are considerably more efficient than energy use tell by 6 percent between those already in use. 1972 an1981 while output in paper, Industrial processes consume more of aluminum, 'steel, arid cement increased the world's commercial energy than ei- by 12.8 percent. Thus, the energy inten- ther transportation or housing. Only in sity of productiot b, these bask Western Europe does the category of materials fell by 17 p t. As else- residential and commercial buildings where, the largest stimu -was higher sometimes edge out industry as the most energy prices, and the major steps taken 40.energy-intensive sector. In some coun- to cuLenagy use were "housekeeping" 1). tries., particularly, the centrally planned in nature, not requiring substantial capi- economies of tt-i Soviet Union and East- tal investments. Other industrial nations ern Europe, the share allocated to indus- that have cut industrial energy intensity try approaches two thirdsof all energy include Italy, where energy use in the consumed.8 Productiort of basic materi- manufacturing sector declined by .317

. 165 .... , Increasing Energy 11.ffiiiency (151) percent per unit of output between "1p79- 'able 7rL Eiteigy U c in Steel and 1981 (5.8 percent per year). VV-st. Manufeturing hiLtAitjair Producing Gprrnany has cut industrial energy inten- Countries, ranked by Efficiency, 1980 Gisyat a rate of Z:Nercent persir since' 19150, thus making gains even while en- Faltrgy Used prgy prices declined,13 During this tame, Country' Pro-clactioifi Per Tons U.S. industry also made- gains despite (million Metric (gigajoules) declining energy prices, though .-they 104 were smaller than after the energy price increases of the seventies., Italy .25 17.6 Spain 12 18.4 The iron and,. steel industryexem- Japan plifies the global prid'gcress made and the .107 18.8 43 21.7 potentialremaining. Steel-makingis 4' both an energy-intensive anJ a massive enterprik,`withannuai Production total- Belgium 13 22.7 Poland 18 23.0 ing about 700 million metric.tons,, The United Kingdom process consumes ,15 percent of all eri;- 17 ke3.4 ergy used in Japan and the Soviet Union, Brazil 14 23.9 and over 9 percent of all energy used in United States 115 23.9 Brazil. Altogether, steel manufacturing Fritiice 23 23.9 absorbs, about 6 percent of world corn- 15 24.7 . inertial energy eus .14 Elgfily-six' percent of the world's steel Soviet Union. 150 31.0 madejn 15 countries, with nearly two Austkalia . 8 36.1 thirds manufactured in China, apan, the China 35 38.1 SoViet Union, theUnittd States, and India 10 41.0 West Germany, The least efficient major World 700 26.0 'manufacturers are China and the Soviet Union, with China, in fact, using over Best Technology twice as much energy per; ton of steel Virgin Ore 18.8 produced as the most efficient large pro- Recycled Scrap 10.0 ducers.. (See Table '7-2.) 'These IS countrick account for 84 percent of Italy and Spain Tank highest in energy workt steel production.?Steel production figures represent averages for years 1978 through 1981. efficiency in steel manufacturing because Energy totals are for crude steel production, they are major recyelers. They produce chiding irontnaking.4A gigajoule equals one bil- steel us'Og the electric `arc, gr. "recy- lionioldes, approximatelymillion BTUs.- cling," furnace, whith uses' virtually 100 Aotutors: Andrea N. Ketolf,-i'ltaliag End-UseEn- percent scrap. Recyclingenables produc- ergy Structure," and Hugh Sacker,"Energy De- mand and Supply in Australia." presentedat ers to save up to two thirds of the energy' Global Workshop on End-Use Energy Strategies; used to produce steel from ore. These other coin-Aries from U.N. Economic Commission two nations partly owe their high rate of forEurope and. World Bank. recycling, however, to steel-scrap imports from the United States, West Ger- gy-efficient both by improving existing many, and elgewhere. The world steel facilities and by switching tomore- recycling rate, despite an abundance of efficient furnaces. An assessment of in- scrap and the advantages of its use,.aver- vestments available to the U.S. steel in- ages only 2$ percent, a rate that could be dustry suggests the lucrative potential of doubled Or perhaps tripled.ns conservation the world over. Upgrading

Steel-making can be made more ener- conventional furnaces yields high over- .

ri (x53) State of the' World-1985 age rates of eturn: percent per Year led madewith cheaper labor', more- for continuo s ca. 31 percent for efficient capital, and lower energy costs, waste-heat reco cent for freeing them from foreign-exchange more-efficient elect Tors. Switching burdens. to the electric arc furti-e can yield a 57 The great potential for conservation percent rate of return.1 one study of in the steel industry may, unfortunately, U.S. industry, Marc Ross of the Univer- 'be long delayed. The United Nations Ec- sity of Michigan estimated that invest- onomic Commission for Europe recently ments such as these could cut the energy forecastthat,the world's largest steel- required per ton of steel by a' third by the maker. the Soviet Union, would fail to year 1000.1" reduce the energy intensity of itspro- The Soviets recycle little steel and rely dqction below 26 gigajoules per tore be- heavily on\ the inefficient open hearth fore the end of the century. This would furnace. This technology was used .to only match the current world average make some 87 percent of U.S.. steel as and would still be 44 percent higher than recently as 1960;. having been replaced Japan's rate today.1 9 by the blisie oxygen and the electric arc Energy conservation in the steel in- furnaces, it now is used for only about 8 dustry clearly depends on energy price. percent of output. Although it has also T6 the extent that market pricing of en- almostdisappearedfromWestern ergy has conveyed the message that en- Europe, the open hearth furnace ac- ergy is precious and experisi,e, market- counts for 55-60 percent of production orientedcountrieshave - conserved. in Eastern Europeand the Soviet Union, Theoretically, centrally controlled coun- where the electric arc furnace provides tries could at a stroke mandate the irm less than 13 percent of the stee1.17 provenient of energy efficiency. Ito any China and India also still rely heavily desired level. Studies of these econo- on the open hearth furnace and take lit- mies, hdwcver, show that economic sys-

. tle advantage of heat.. recovery oppor- tems 'never`operate sp siMply, and that N tunnies. Developing countries overall complex quota and allocation systems could save at least 10 percent of the en- often defeat the best of intentions.20 In ergy they use in existing steel facilities by othersountries faced with higher energy spending only $2-1 billion, according to prices, state -owned corporations have a- World Bank study. This investment 'usually performed better, as exemplified would pay for itself in energy savings in by Nippon.SteelCorporstion and Sider- just one year." bras of Brazil. And competition has -Though installing new steel-making created additional pressure to save not plants tprovides an opportunity for im- only 'energy but labor and materials as proving efficiency, it is an uncertain one. well:Privately owned minimills using the The rate of improvement will depend On electric arc furnace constitute a dynamic the rate of demand for steel---a factor newforceforconservation.Major difficult to predict not only because of changes like these are dillicuit factbrs to the uncertainty in the global economy anticipate and thus include inThodels of but because the industrial market econo- future production' Mies presently have about 50 percent ex- The macroeconomic models in vogue cess capacity. 111tlichpf the growth in de- today implicitly assume that conserva- .mand; however, is expected in develop- tion will not work well. Most are based ingeOuntries,lind it would be surprising on the belief that the -United States, for if they did not build their own produc- exam*, will not reach the current Japa-, tion facilities. Such plants would provide nese level of efficiency in steel for 35 0 167' homing Efficiency (5 3 ) years. They assume thatthe Soviet using basic oxygen fui-naces. Even if the Union, China, and India will not match minimill plant cannot obtain scrap and today's performance by the slapanose requires a special iron ore reduction la- untilkifter-the year 2050. Vet the model- the capital cost per annual ton of ers also assume that half the world eco- production totals only $500-900. Add- nomic output in the year 2000 will be ing labor and energy savings to these generated by new facilities. Sioviet steel- capital cost reductions gives an oyerall making capacity," for example, is pro- cost advantage of the minimill in excess jected to doublte. And current plans in of $100 per ton of steel produced." Brazil .call for 50 percent more steel- making capacity!' by the year 1990." Since growth implies new industrial The macroeconomic modelS in eguipment, there is no good reason why vogue today implicitly assume that the facilities cannot be at least 4s efficient conservation will not work well. as the Japanese steel industry is today. Indeed, even the Japanese steel industry could economically be 20 percent moriefficient. Onlya quarter of its steel To assume the world steel industry is formed in electric arc furnaces. Most will forgo the energy-saving minimill in industry experts expect the minimill to new steel productiOn is to assume that its +capture a much larger "share of the world captains are less than skillful. In coun- steel market. Furthermore, if two major tries as technically sophisticated as th417 constraints on the minimillthe lack of zil,the expertise and technology 14 cost-effective technology for rolling thin .achieving the highest levels of efficiency metal sheets and the need to rett ovt-im-- in steel-making exist locally, as they do purities from recycled sera re over-'''forotherenergy-consumingindus- I come by new technology, minimills may tries.25 Furthermore, new capacity can soon produce any type of steel desired: outperform the old and capture its mar- If this happens, a real revolution may lets. This mechanism is already at work, take place in steel productkn, Today's as evidenced by the success of the mini- domihant steel-makers, altifady suffer- mill. To comiter this competition, even ing 'from high energy and labor costsand the major U.S. steel-makers are invest-I low productivity, cou4 find themselves ing in energy; and cost-saving measures. far less competitive.23 AlumintIM production is-another en- The prospect fbr energy efficiency in ergy-intensive _process, requiting 1, per- -steel-makiiig, according to some observ- cent of the world's commercial energy. ers, is ditteled by the current economic 'The: main draw is for electricity to smelt. climate-Staggering from a recession and aluminum from alumina. The efficiency bad management, the industry cannot of this technique varies widely around affordtoinvestinconservation,its the world. Energy-poo countries such managers claim, much less in totally new as Ft'ance are the most ellisient, while capaaty. This perspective overInoks sev- those with cheap electricity, especially eral basic facts, 'however, First, when hydroelectric pcnOcr, use up to half again new capacity is needed, conservation inas much per unit, -(Seo Table 7-3.) The vestments save capital. Steel mills,built world average is in the range of 16,500 around the electric arc furnace, For ex: kilowan.hou4 per ton. All nations could ample, cost only $350-550 per annual "reduce the rate to 13,000 kilowatt-hours on of steel capacity, compared with per ton if they applied the best available" $1,500-1,700forconventionalmills and economically .practicable, technols

4. .(154) State of theWorld--- -1985 ogy. Recycling, moreover ti cut en- bauxite in a blast furnacehas. been de- ergy reqUirements by 90, percent.' The . vetoped by the Mitsui Alumina Corpora- world aluminum recyding rate is only 28 tion of Japan, Announced in 1981, the percent and could be doubled or fri- process has been patented in japan, pled.20 . where a coritinercial-scale plant is under An entirely new. non-electric ess construction now, and patents are pend- of producingaluminuin,-.-bxcoking ing in nine other industrial countries." This technology could not only.cut energy costs, it could completely chiinge Table 7-3. Electricity Use In Aluminum the current trend toward. moving alumi- Stnehingrin Major Producing Countries, mini production to hydroelectric-rich Ranked by kfliciency, 1981 countries in the developing world,. Share of Electricity The world now produces about 16 World Used Per baillion\tons of aluminum, requiring the Country Production' Ton equivalent of 14 percent of world base- load hydroelectric generating capacity. (thousand (kilowatt- If demand for aluminum doubles by the tons) hours) year 2000, as analysts from the World Italy 300 13,300 Bank and the Organisation. for Eco- Netherlands 300 13,300 nomic- Co-operation and Development France 450 13:500 (OECD) project, electrical demand for Brazil 300 14,000 production would increase 50 percent, West 800 14,500 eVen if energy intensity is reduced to Germany today's most efficient level of smelting Japan 700 14,941'' ore: A rate-of improvement of 1.6 per- l.h States 4,300 15,400 cent per year u aluminum oduction, Australia 400 16,100 energy efficiency is needed nattainthis Norway 700 18,000 best-teefinOlogy level by the end of the Soviet Union 2,000 18,000 century, klost analysts, however, assume Canada ' 1,200 20,000 only one third this rate of improvement, World 15,900 16,500 which is what the world has averaged since 1955. The change realized will de- Best, Technology pend strongly on electric energy prices Virgin Ore A 13,000 and demand for aluminum. As demand !.ecycled Scrap I ,6002 increases, more efficiency improvements will be made. On,the other hand, electric 'Average primary production for years 1980-82. enei'g-y subsidif6S *ill reduce-conserva- 'Electric energy-equivalent. tion," sonacts: Worldwatfich institute, derived from Alu- . minum Association, Aluminum Statistical lienneto for Assessing efficiencies in the pulp and 198Y (Washington, D.Ct: 1984); David Wilson, The paper,- chemicalS, and cement industries Demand for Energy in the Soviet Union; S. Y. Shen, Energy and Materials Flout in the PrOuction of Primary is more complex',hecause they ericdm- Aimaintait; U.N.Economic .ternmission "for pass greater diversity in product and Europe; Jose Goldemberg et al, "Brazil: End-Use process. Many energy-saving opportuni- Stegy,and Rolf Bauerschinidt, "End-Use En- ties are commonSmong them, however. ergy tegy for Feder epublic of Germany," Two techniques typify late, across-the- presentat Global Works ion End-Use Energy Strategies. World average froU.N. Environment board savings oppoilhaities: upgrading Programme. "Energy and Resource Conservation electric motors and improving.heatre- in the, Aluminum Industry,"andusityandEnvin2n.. covery, Inducting insulation and steam most, August/September 1983. generation using waste heat.29

169 Increasing Energy Efficiency (1.55) Electric industrial motors consume 20-40 percent returns." Some of the over 80 percent of all electric energy equipment used in papermaking in the used in U.S. industry, and a remarkable United States is-50 years old but remains 40 percent of all electricity used in Bra-. in service because of rapidly growing de- zil. Howard Geller of the .American mand for paper. If demand gro)vtb for Council for an Energy-Efficient Econ- paper slows, this inefficient equipment omy has demonstrated the value of could be retired. improving the ubiquitous motor. His The products of the paper industry analysis suggests that investing in more- are becoming "so commonplace,abun- efficient motors and motor speed con- dam, and cheap that they arc Mingo in- trols in Brazil would save 1.0,000 meg- visible to consurArs."33 The Ind 'try, awatts by the. y7"ar 2000, or over 17 however, is far Mm "invisible" in en- percentof projectednew demand ergy use. In the United States, where one for generating capacity." third of the world's paper is made; the Motors can be made more efficient in industry requires 'a tenth of all industrial two ways. First, using higher quality steel energy and ranks just behind chemicals, along with better design reduces energy steel, and oil refining in energy use, losses due to heating and magnetization Paper recycling,fortunately,saves of the core. More-efficient motors cost about one third of the energy used to only 25 percent 1110Te than the average make paper from virgin fibers, counting new motor, an investment that in new the wood waste used in American paper applications yields a "profit:: of between mills. The United States, however, recy- 40 and 200 percent-per year, depending cles only 25 percent of paper con- on usage rates and electric costs. Most sumed, compared witll 50 percent in motors are rebuilt rather than replaced, Japan and the Netherlands. Energy re- however, because new, highly, efficient quirements for U.S. paper production motorscostfourtimes more than could be cut by at leas! 15 percent by remanufactured Units. Despite this dif- r3ycling as extensively as do the Japa- ferential, in Brazil the energy savings ob- nese and Dutch. Since the United States tainable by replacing motors in need of us-es over half a percent ofhe world's rebuilding with new ones would provide commercial energy making4pulp and a rate of return on the extra investment' paper, the absolute savings would be of 10-50 percent per year. Motors can substantia1.34 also be imp d by adding variable fre- Chemical processing isthe world's. quency o match (he speedot F tstest-growing industry and it already is heavy in otors With the desired e largest industrial energy user in the power o esearch sponsitred by United States.U.S.chetiiicaloutput the Electric Power Research Institute es- grew 50 percent between 1972 and timated that the use .4 these devices in 1981, but at the same time energy effi- the United States could save over 7 per- ciency increased 24 percent. Chemical cent of all electricity used." production in West Gerinany grew 840 Papermaking involvesconsiderable percent between World War 11 and pumping of liquids, for which electric 1982, while energy use by. this sector motors are largely used. In the United grew only 300 percept-. Energy intensity, States, replacing, electric motors with moreover, has declined rapidly since more-efficient-ones would _typically plc), 1979. Just as in the _paper industry., vide a 47 percent return on investment. pumping of liquids' and heating wigi Changing to new pulping and lime re- steam are required. Investments by the generation equipment would provide chernicals industry in electric pumps, . _ ! .

056) State of theWorld-1981 heat recovery devises,and cogeneration switching o the dry process saves nearly .offer rates of return of 43, 15, and 18 a quarter )f that. ThOnited Sweet-row/ percent per year, respectively." produces its cement with this more The:-oduction of plastics and syn- efficient pro d as a result average thetic als dominates the chemical energy. consumpti rper ton is down to sndustry iterms of energy use. Signifi- 6.5 gigajotdes. Althoughnew mneni- cantly, oil is the raw material for these making capacity throughout much of the, products. U.S. production of olefins for world uses,the dry technique, the Soviet plastics and synthetic materials requires Union continues to rely primarily on the 3.5percent of all oil used in the country. inefficient wet process; institutionalre- Only small amounts of plasticare Fee)" sistance is apparently delaying the adop- cled, although this processrecovers vir- tiotrof the dry process. Australia has not tually all the energy embodied in them. changed either and as a resultaverages Burning waste plastic, the most,common .7,2 gigajoules per ton of cementpro--.. method of energy recovery, returns only duced. The energy requirrements of both half the energy used in its manufacture. wet antj dry processes can he improved Recycling is Unfortunately impeded by by preheating the kilns with recovered the fact that post- Consumer plastic scrap waste heat. West European nations com- isdifficult to sort and recover, Some bine the dry process with heatrecovery chemical products are mcxe easilyre- and as a result use 25 perceitt lessenergy cyclable. Antifreeze, a major synthetic than the United States.57 product,couldberecoveredand The importance of a comparatively purified. Tires -also can be rather easily small number of:conservation initiatives recovered, and making them withre- in inditstry is underscored bya simple claim-rubber uses only about 10 percent comparison. The Soviet Union isex- as' much energy as manufacturing them pected by the year 2000 to increase As from virgin synthetic fibers." 4 major consumption of coat.f&the manufatture policy measure that all countries could of iron and steel by more energy than implement is to ensure the recyclability Brazil uses today for everything. Simply of materials. This might include the ban- making the Soviet iron and steel industry 4 ning of Certain plastic packaging. as efficient by the year 2000 as the Japa- nese are now would reduce this increase by four fifths." Most. scenariosassume A major policy measure that all the Soviets will do no better in thisarea countries could implement is toen- than the current world average by tho sure the recyclability of materials. end of the century. But because they also assume that the Soviets will double steel production capacity by then, implicit in their forecastS is the installation of tech- Cement, an intermediate product in nology 20 percent less efficient than the the manufacture of concrete,isthe Japanese now Use and 40 percent less, world's most widely used construction efficient than available technology that is material.. Its production requires much economical atet rent world energy se heating and 'grinding, but large energy prices. Perhaps ecause the 'Soviets savings can be obtained by grinding and enjoy energy abuance and do not use mixing the silicates, calciuM, and alumi- market pricing for energy they have little nates in anew dry process rather than in incentive to conserve, NA failingto dci a slurry. The old wet process requires so will cost them dearly in lost oppo- more that) 7.6 gigaipules per tort, and tunities to sell oil and earn foreign ex-.

4 171 Mereasing Energy Efficie"cY (07) change.41*y alsO supply most of the fotransportationis similar to other fuel for their East European allies, and 0D countries, despite the fact that any inefficiencyin the Soviet Union th ation is small, densely populated, drives up the cost of supplying these and ideal for mass. transportation. 4 0 countries. Affluence, automobile ownership, and Worldwide, improvements may,slack- fuel efficiency are important issues in en, but probably not as much" as assumed both rich and poor countries, even by most macroeconomic modelers. They where renewable energy resources are prqject industrial efficiency in the East- abundant. This fact is evident in Brazil, ern bloc and developing tountiies will a country so dramatically divided byin- improve far slower than in the OECD, come' levels that Brazilian physicist Jose and that the .0ECD will improve at only Goldenberg describes it as "a Belgium about 0,8 percent per year. To reach ec- inside an India." Car ownership has in- onomical levels of efficiency by the year c'aced substantiallyin the last two 2000, a rate of improvement in industry deca.s, growing at 7 percent annually everywhere of more than 2.1 pedient per even dt ing the last five years, despite year is needed. The modelers, tMit, may the , deep cession and high- energy be encouraging the world to invest far costs.' Still, the number of cars per per- more in energy supply than iswarant:40. son remains only 15 percent as high as in the United States, leaving considerable room for expansion, and ownership among the , relatively rich can be expected to continue growing. Even a moderate increase' over the rest of the -gAVING OILIN century would double auto fuel demand TRANSPORTATION by the year 2000, given the current levels of fuel efficiency:4v Although the transportation sector usesirOpposing scenarios can be drawn for less energy than industry, it uses oil al- meeting the challenge of transportation most exclusively. Thus automobile fuel fuel needs. The options range from pur- economy, mass transit, and efficient suing all-out efforts to develop alterna:' freight hauling offer the largest oil sav- tiveAuels to fashioning a future free of ings. Private cars consume about 7 per- 'automobiles. Brazil, again, offers a mi- cent of the world's commercial energy, crocosm of a larger body of conflicting or 17 percent 6f the oil used each year. forces and alternatives. To meet part of 'The United States, in fact, uses 10 per - to expected twofold increase in fuel decent of the world's oil output as gasoline mand-for cars, the nation plans to dou- for motor cars and light trtieks." ble national oil, production. Supplying The transportation sector uses 20-25 the remainder with alcohol would re- percent of energy deliveredto consum- quire 16-20 percent of the total land ers throughoutWfshietn Eope, North area .committed tq crop production in America (inclutiiiik Mexico), and Brazil. '1980. Goldenberg and his colleagues In Extern Europe anitthe Soviet Unio conclude "these are formidable roquire- however, the figure is only 7-13 per men4 which' are probably impossible to chiefly because fewer people own car achieve in reality."4t even today's alco- Automobileownershipanduseis hol fuel otkput," which meets about 3 strongly rted to income everywhere, percent of Brazilian total energy needs, even in a tries as different a? Aus- apparently has caused serious social and tralia and j Japanese lite of enefty enviromnental stresses." Alternatively,

172 (r58) State of the WorldI985

improving automobile fueleconomy Table f-4, Fuel Ecohottly, both would extend oil supplies long Selected amide*, 1982 enough to develop renewable energy soutees safely and wouldmake the use,00.,, Fleet New renewable energy feasible. *tntry Autos Average Cars The. ,fuudamental importance of auto (miles per fuel economy can be seen by contrastin jallont) current efficiency levels with the teThni- cal and economic potential. Fuelecon- 6.3 -19 24 omy around the world averages about 21 Brazil 9.7 20 24 miles per gallon (8,9 kilometersper Canada 10.6 18 27 liter), though it varies widely. (See Table France , 17.8 27 32 7-4.) The U.S. automobile fleet, not sur- East Qerotany 2.1 27 32 prisingly, is the world's least efficient, Italy 17.7 24 31 and the newest Anierican modelsrate only slightly better than the worldaver- Japan 39.0 31 30 age for existinwcars. Soviet Vnion 8.0 26 29 A simple calculation illustrates the United Kingdom 15.6 22 28 profound importance of raising these United States 144 16 22 ratings. If by the year 2000 American West Germany 2At 22 28 cars were as efficient as the Japanese (assuming saturation in car ownership), 5 Other 77.0 It.a. percent of world oil us would be;saved. Doubling auto fuel ecicy worldwide Total 353.0 21g 253 would 'permit twice as many cars without 'Actual- mileage on the road. Datamay not he increasing energy consumption,or it strictly comparable due to differing nationaltest- would allow savings of about .8 percent s-11w methods,'Based on 80 percent of the cars in the world. th.tsed on 70 percent of the new cars of world oiloutput. -Achievingthis ii c Wqrld. should cost less \khan $20 per barrel soy ci:: Internationgliknergy AtfeAcy. World Energy saved%, the alternative, producinggaso- Outlook (Paris: -OF,CD. 1982); Intonational Road line dr alcohol fuel, will cost $40--60 per tWeration. World Road Statishc.c 1978-82 (Washr barrel." iligton. p.C.;1983); kinit.e& Nations Economic. Commission for Europe, 471..Etictgy EfficientFuture: The potential to do even better than Prospects for Europe and North ihntrica (Londons Out-, this is great. Automobile fuel economy terworths. 1983); Motor Vehicle Manufacturers can be improved far beyond turrent Ja- Association. World Motor ;Aide Doke Rook, 1983 panese levels,Indeed, several Major (neuron. Mich.: 1983). manufacturers have produced prototype cars that' Obtain up to 93 miles per gal- will be 'needed. This would equal six lon. Models than' get 78 miles to the gal- times the current level of alcohol fuel lon have been built by General Motors (a production. If within the next fiveyears, two-passenger car) and Volkswagen (a however, Brazil required all nevi cars to four- to five- passenger model).45 get Si miles per gallon, projected con- The trade-offs between ways to meet ,sumption would grow by "only" 4$ per- automobile fuel demand 'can be illus- cent. This level of fuel economy innew trated by returning to the case of Brazil. cars could reportedly be icineved in If the countrychooses to concentrateon shirt order without major catal inv.est- alcohol fuels, and if its cars are nomore met* in Brazil's auto indus f Brazil efficient at the end of this century than mandated a new-car fuel ec by of 47. they are today, over twit.` as much fuel miles IC, the gallon, fuel demand woald

ca Increasing Energy Efficiency (159) by the year 2000 be slightly lower than sibk in mass transit systems. East Euro- today." pean trains, for example, perform more Many options can be iirporated to efficiently than West European ones, If achieve these high fuel economy levels. Soviet railways achieved a similar techni- Reducing auto weight can save 25 per- cal level .of efficiency, savings of 50 percent of the energy used in the typical car. cent could be made." Engineering more-efficient .engines can Developing countries face a particu- yield another 20 percent improvement, larly difficult task in providing transpor- as can the installation of efficient con- tation services. Strapped with -debt and tinuously variable transmissions (CVT). under pressure from the International General Motors and Fiat both will soon Monetary Fund to cio domestic expendi- begin production of the CVT in France. tures, budgets for providing additional Simply installing the .most efficient tire bus services have been reduced, and rail available on the market today would Un- services are frequently out of the ques- prOiT the-filet economy of Most cars by tion because of their high initial capital 1-3 miles per gallon.47 cost. But failing to provide mass trans- Rolf Banerschmidt of the University. of portation costs dearly if, as often hap- Essen has.shown how West German fuel pens, the lack or service is made up pri- consumption could be nit by a fifth by vately with ['rotor cars. ri the year 2000 while the auto fleet grows ,Nigeria Illustriites this dilemma. The by 12 percent. lie assumes that new cars lack of transport services is evidencedby / will mainly be diesel-fueled yehick* get- gie use of only half a barrel of oil equiva- ting 36 miles per gallon.tasoline-pow- lent per capita itt transportatiOn in 1980, ered cars would not grow in number but less than a sixth the level,in West Ger- would become more efficient, achieving many. One Nigerian analyst projects this, 29 miles to the gallon. These goals are will rise to 3.2 barrels of oil equivalent easily within the realm of technical feasi- per capita by 2010. Wide use of mass bility, though they may require govern- transit would greatly reduce this projec- ment intervention. He also assumes that tion, but the current service is so poor travel by train will double, a more uncer- that it strongly encourages the purchase tain prospect. Rail pasSenger-travel re- of automobiles. Pc ential passengers aro. mains at about the same level as just deterred by bukes filled to crushing-lev- after World War II, and the service; els. Many alreadrcommute four hours though excellent and improving, is heav- per day on mass ',transit and, despite

ily subsidird." . crowded roads, find private transport Where' t ransportionsystems,are more convenient when they can afford it. inadequate or nonexistent, there are Most cars carry only\ two passengers,. even greater opportunities to use mass though average capaCityisfive.Yet transit to cut;.. avoid growth in energy roads are so crowded -in Lagos that in use.Travelingby trainisinherently 1978 legislation was enacted that r- more efficient than using a private car. In nutted vehicle use only on alteate West Germany, for example, railroads clays. Predictably, the law was um- use only one fourth as much energy as vented by those who could afford second cars to move people an equal distance." cars.5 The autobus is comparable in-efficiency. An,alternative i-tat reduces conges- No mode of passenger transportation, tion, saves ener6, and tuts government however, is more efficient than van or transOrtation costs is the jitney. Jitneys car pools: are 'comparatively small vehicles that Technical improvements are also pos- offer shared rides alonk major routes, (16o) Slate of theWorld-1985 , I Small fleets of these taxicabs, vans, or would otherwise be expected, Replacing trutks are usually operated by private Soviet gasoline-powered trucks with die- owners. Though problems sometimes sel units would also bring improvement. arise in regularity of service and in ne- Freight transport over the road isex- glect of less Kofitable routes, heseare pected to grow in most major countries, generally outweighed by large increases so the iniportanceof increased efficiency in low-costtransportationservice. of transport trucks is central. U.S. truck. Profit-making private jitneys often oper- transport is inefficient due to poor aero- ate at full seating capacity, usually dur- dynamics and poor load factors, Which ing rush periods. Although they have the has historically been clue to a bad regula- potentialforlowering the efficiency of tory policy that required many truck op- phblic transport by skimming the most erators to return empty to their destina- profitable routes, they can also reduce. tions. Technical improvements suchas governments' need to bily large vehicles' airldils, however, can improve efficiency to meet rush-hour demand. These-large by 0:percent, with turbocharging adding vehicles would be used either at less than 12 percent and radial tires 10 percent. In full loador not at allduring most of Brazil, a-doubling of efficiency of trucks the day.. TbuS jitneys can save commut- is considered feasible. This wouldper- ers the energy and capital costs inherent mit at least twice as much road freight in private cars and can save governments transport without any increase in fuel some of the high capital and operating tonsumption.54 costs of mass-transit vehicles. Studies re- A basic problem in both the United port the successful operation of jitney States and Brazil is the decline of rq- services in a dozen cities around the roadS. In Brazil they are poorly managed world, from Hong Kong to Buenos and inefficient, while using the U.S. rail Aires.52 V- system is slower than sendingfreight by highway, clue to poorly maintained rail beds and poor freight tray. fer systems at It falls ;to govefnments to ensure switchyards. A major sliback to rail that, auto fuel efficiency, the single would be costly and is U likely without most important energy policy in the impetus of much hir fuel costs or governmentintervention.Developing the world, is achieved. countries, however, will probably want to give priority to rail transport over highway construction. Water transport Most countriesfacetrade-offs in the is far more efficient than either rail or movement of freight, 'which often.burns truck, if waterways already exist, The up more ,,energy than passeng& trans- construction of waterways to compete port, TheSoviet Union, in fact, uses 75 with rail. has not always been an effective percent of all transport fuel moving use of capital, but in Brazil, water trans- freight. This fuel use can be reduced by portation along the Amazon to the in- both shifts from truck to rail as well as dustiialized sohth probably presentsa increased efficiency of transport trucks, better alternative than construction of which carry half or more of the freight in either raildr highways."

the United States, Europe, and B_ razil." , .Worldwide, the future of oiluse tcle- Soviet freight is mostly carried by rail, penclg most on the future of transporta- which is why the country has the highest tion, especially the automobile, Be arise freight transport efficiency, though the rs aving oil can help secure the frure of use of coal in locomotives in lead of dint the automobile as well as refi ve eco-- sel fuel makes them less efficient than noniic and environmental KAsure, ii is

it-

1 7 . ..

Increasing Energy Efficiency (161) if only 'Ortident toseekthehighest industrial countries, oil, gas, and elec- econoibically achievable rates of fuel tricity warm or cool air, heat water, pro- efficiency.Governmentswillplaya vide light, refrigerate food, and run ap- major role in the future of transporta pliancessuch as ranges,washing tion because generally they alone pos- machines, and televisions. In developing bess the resonrces to p)vide alternative countries, wood or dung is the principal transportation and because they can leg- fuel, used mainly for cooking. More- islatefuel economy. They willalso efficient stoves would both reduce wood greatly affect freight transportation en, waste and improve the quality of life in orgy use, albeit less directly. Fuel econ- theareas, but their use is somewhat omy levels of 30 miles per gallon are 'problematic. Measures for halving en- achievable everywhere by the end of the ergy use in industrial nations include im- century; levels of 50 miles per gallon are proving and replacing appliances, espe- attainable shortly thereall. But the1' cially furnaces and air conditioners, and world will notorealize this IN:Cart:int po- redi(ing heat loss from poorly insulated buildings. tential if governments adopt a hands-off .. attitude. gpportunmes for conservation Althougli 'market signals for energy are atest in North America and West- prices are vital to increased fuel, econ- ern Europe, where rates of energy rise in omy, the market ,alone will not bring tl buildings sector reflect both the di- about economically feasible levels for' late' and high income levels. These two'main reasons. The first is that con- countries have a long way to go before sumers do not consider filel economy as completely adjusting to the energy price a top priority when buying cars unless increases of the seventies. Nonetheless, fuel prices are increasing rapidly. Sec-'improvements. since 1973 in the OECD_ ond, when an oil emergency does occur, countries in this "rergicahave been im- autonakers cannot quickly. supply effi- pressive..(See Figure 7-1. De mark, the cient cars. Typically, five years are're- ,molt improved of these e- ducedawed energy use hi buildings by11as quired to re-tool to itke new cars .more cent, an impressive record considering efficient. that the area of buildings heated in- Thus, the market alone cannot guar- creased by 23 percent OV(..n the period. antee future energy efficiency or even Canada and the United States. also show promote completely rational economic major reductionsI9 and 16 percent, behavior in the Wort term. It falls to gov- respectively. France, Sweden, and West ernments to ensure that auto fuel effi- Germany registered smaller percentage ciency, the single most important energy reductions, but they started from a more policy in the world, is achieved. To effect efficient base .s° this, a combination of market pricing, The Swedes managed most of their fuel taxes, and efficiency regulations will savings with capital investments, while be required. 75 percent of the improvemehts in the other countries resulted from no-cost or low-cost changes..stich as turning down thermostats. Lee"Schipper of the Law- rence Berkeley Laboratory reports that BUILDINGS AND APPLIANCE technical efficiency of SwediSh houses EFFICIENCY -far exceeds that of the United States, even 'after adjustment for climate. Swed- Energy use in buildings around the ish, homes, on average, .,have twice the World ranges between extremes. In most insulation values.of homes in the north- (162) State hf the World---) 985 Kilnjoules energy facility construction costs. The:. /Degree Day /Square Meter energy-efficient home would save sod.' 300 ety $7,000 in capital costs compared with a conventional house, even allow-

rfancc Oct% r k ing for the additional cost to the home- 200 owner.A9. W. 0 trmAny Similar benefits abound in the home 11- appliance market. Energy cost savings to 100' Sweden homeowners, coupled with some strong Source: Lee Schipper,.fir, policymeasults, have increased effi- Stimitx/1 Council for Budding Research cieng since 1172 in the United States. Applitincesfor space heating, water 1970 1975 1980 r 19135 heating,,air conditioning, and refrigera- Figure 7 -1., Efficiency Improvements in tion requirt three fourth' of the energy ,Residential Space Heating in Selected Countries, used in U.S. buildings, with 42 percent . 1970-84 going for Space heat alone. Typical new ern state of Minnesota.57 gas furnaces now are about 70 percent The potential for improving the heat- efficient, having improved slightly over saving capability of homes even in cold the last decade. New gas-fired systems, Climates can be readily illustrated. C.A. however, are 94 percent efficient. These Eisner has -compared costs in Canada of employ heat ...exchangers that remove energy options in new homes of conven- heat loom flue gases by condensing tional design, energy-saving design, ac- them. Unfortunately, consumers usually tive solar he g, and passive solar heat- choose, less efficient Units." (See Table ing. Atyp' ewirIOUSf in Canada cots 7-5.) $80,000 to build and.$800 per year To The seasonal efficiency of central air A , heat. By spending an additional $3,000 conditioners has improved by over 25 to build a thermally tighter structure, the percent in the United States since 1972.. cost of energy could be cut to $100 per year. The additional construction cost Table 7-3. Efficiency of Typical U.S. would add $450 per year in interest and Household Appliances Versus Best principal to typical mortgage payments, 1983/84 Models giving an overall cost of $550. Thus net annual savings would total $250. In con- (percent) trast, passive- and active -solar homes Electric Heat Pump 53 COSI$92,000 and $100,000 to build. Gas Furnace 50. Their"heating"costswouldtotal $2,200 and $3,300 per year.58 Gas Water Heater 73 Conservation is the clear winner. Its Electric Water Heater 35 importance is Clear also: Almost 40 per-: cent of all Canadian end-use energy goes Central Air Conditioner 84 s. into buildings, Half of this could be Room Air Conditioner 64 saved, an amount equal to 50 :percent more than is supplied by hydropower in Refrigerator Freezer 55, Canada. The benefits of energy conser- Freezer. 73 vation go far beyond the annual dollar seance: Ho* wd s.ell.cr,"Efficient Residential. savings to the houseowner,however. Re- Appliances and SpaceConditioningEquipment," duced energy demand means reduced in ACEEE, Doittg Better, Pot E. Increasing Energy Efficiency 14163) 1. etanditioners ha4e also 1M- up to $110 more,4bUt it yields a rate of prOved;, by about 17 percent. The Un- return of 35 percent pet.' year. A re- provenients occurred itiost dramatically frigerator/freezer now on the ntarket between 1981 and 1982, presumably to with an improvement' of 20 percent meet Californian minimmit appliance yields an annual return of 52 percent. It efficiency standards.°1 costs only $60 more than mod. els with Wateisheatcrs Use 14 percent of the average efficiencies." .7iftrierp consumed it? the U.S, buildings sectpr. But the efficiency of electric water heaters, which. represent a third of Refrigerfitipn units in Japan, even the market, declined b6tween 1972 and adjusted for smaller size, are twice 1.980by about 2 pqcent. (No data as efficient as U.S. refrigerators. have been collected since that time, un-' fortunately, as a result of Regan administration policy.) Typical natural- gastfiredwater heaters are only 48 . An Oak Ridge National 1,abotory percent efficient at point of use, com- study inthe southern Unite States

pared with 80 percent for new pulse- showed that, even if an existi g central- . combustion models. A new pulse-unit air conditioning unit is not w rn-out, ictk water heater would save over $115 per placing it can pay for thextra cost year in fuel in the average u,s.home.62 onlyfiveyears.- icantly,.itwas Refrigeration units in Japan, even ad- shown that many airair conditioning units justed for smaller size, are twice as effi- arc oversized, which leads to much en- cient as U.S. refrigerators. The Japanese ergywaste from, cycling losses. Over- refrigerators do not sacrifice frost-free sized units cost more to buy well as to features or other conveniences to attain operate. Replacing the average . worn- efficiency.Rather,they have more- Out unit with a properly sized efficient efficient compressors, better design, and one pays for itself in 6-12 months in.the better insulation. A U.S. concern is that southern United States and in 18-36 the Japanese could capture a sizpble months in the arid- Atlantic states.," share of their market, just as the Jhpa- Lighting in. the United States 'costs nese automakers 'did. 'This prospe'et is about $30 billion in electricity each year, uncertain for several reasons, including and consumes 25 percent of all electric the difficulty of making international power. output. New ballasts to stabilize comparisons, due to inconsistent testing the current in the circuits of fftiordscent methods, for all appliances, Nevethe,' lights can reduce energy costs by 20-25 less, the apparently higher efficiency of pcilrent,andreplacing incandescent the Japanese refrigerator at leastsug- bulbs with small fluorescents can cut gests the threat to U.S. manufacturers."r-consumption by an estimated 75 pet' -

,More-efficient appliances cos more to cent. A recent article in the ,Electric purchase, but they quickly per theth. Power Research, Institute'sI. firm& selves. A highly efficient* urnace may suggests that half the electricity ensedfor cost an additional $1,000, but it can yirld lighting could be saved in the United an annual return on investment bf 15 States-120 billion kiltratt-hoOrs "per percept over an average model due to an year, If accomplished, the saving would efficiency improvement of 50 percent or represent 0.5'percent of all world coin- more. A gas-fired water heater. with an mercial energy, and 35 patent inure improvement of 33 percent over the-av- electricity than the entire annual hydro., erage model in the United Stales costs electric power output of the United

1' i*8 4 State of the It'orld--195.95 e State. his potenttisIf than the the Soviet Union. The low usage is due ,hydroelectric output of Central and in part to smaller living spaces, but also p7"S9uar. America, Eastern Europe, andthe to the efficiency that is afforded by cen- Sovb Union combined. As the EPP/ tral heating systems. Many people live in primal apt it, "[This, energy) could be ciats in multifamily dwellings, permit-.. saved through energy-,efficient ,ftstrate- tine very efficient district heating, It also ' gies, all without imposing an,' hardships makes cogeneration possible, and the . onproductivity,safety, or esthetics:"" Soviets take good advanttige of thisop- Commercial, hbildings use about one portunity. The United Nations has es- eighth of theenergy consumed in the timated, however, _that an additional 20 United States. B&WIse lightingrepre- percent savings could be attained in-So-

try. sents 40 percent of thespeak'Neleetrical viet buildings' by the year 2000. The reiquireynents for these buildings, peak study underscores the import5nce of ..,E)ads on utilities-could be cur sharply-conservation by noting that -.In increase

ti iathlightingenergyconservation: of about 42 Percent in total energy use Lights Contribute much of the heat that by his sector 'is likely even if these say- Must be reMoved-bKair contlitioning Rre achieved, based on an asstimp- fact, air conditioning is often r=equire 10 If rising living 's,tandards.69 these buildings in- cold weather 4.o le--; study also concluded that move the heat generated by excess light -.' -`Conservation, could 'hold buildings-sec- into. Audits and small investments in im- totvenergy demand in Weste Europe provenientsincommercial buildings to a rise 'of only ,5 percent." Other re- could yield electricity 'ingS of 30 per- search suggests a .eduction in absolute

tent in lighting, 25space heat, -20 in energy useispossibV, A Lawrenc'.

aie.conditioning, at 15. .gerc*t for Bei*eley LaboratZiry study. estimates

le witerAeting.67 that with no change in.enefg-y prices, de- S7e,yedish homesuse 50 perceryesS mand for energy per hpusehold in North ,,heatthan,American homes. The Swedes America and WesternEurOpe should re- .-enacted perfornranee standards for resi- main constant. -1014 is, increased de- cleneeis,in the mid-seventies- mid offered ;Aid for :serViesesas income grow c,o1rservation inves /ments.t would be, offset by efficiency improve- ;s.' Efficiency jevels often exceed there- merits. The authors point out;.too, that quittmentk, ihougb tRe'standards rhay damand for most ipkior energ services., wa have .increased, -awarenessandac- or appliances, in the;areas is saturated, :-celeralted the ovei;all'irnprovement. The and that tht fasterComes grow, the aualysts aftrilinte 3te impryvementto sooner people can and will replace exist- loan,s totaling iinsdre than $850 rnilliort ing qmdels withsenergy-efficient ones." made, available 'for ifficienty invest- With rising prices and rising incomes; r meats ta cooperation between home- efficiencywouldimprovefast'er,

'ovinerls, builders, and.lthe government;- In relative Denmark,, France, . to a national- Ommrtrneht to quality and We Germany have been most suc- housing; to price increases:- and. to the.cessful in.ilnproving,efficieucy hi build- , new Standards. They also noted that irp- in a, the reason appears tp.bep con- provemencs weegreater in homes built.. r6erted'and balanced commitment rat the by these. OK; inhabited them,is op-llighest national levels to bring about en- posed to those wbabu. t h s to 1,68,s ergy saviiiist In the absence of balance, :The stwpe for sayi n tis subs] es for coniervilionthe build- sector is broad veriiwhere.energy Use in:in s sector, in the form cedirect grants -bldings is -comparatively loN such 'hire :lot seen good policy. Bitlioris of r A

e 0 1,/

,?. 44, 0.."! . 'I

hicrMsing Energy Effi ciency (x 65 ) , s dollars worth of grams in Ca'nacla and the fire can bc. compromised. Moreover,' the United Kingdom, for example., were if the fire isndlosed in a stove, extra not supplemented with information pro- work is requ ,ecfto cutthewoodtok gratts and were thus less effective than The attraction 2f energy conservation, they might have been. More ffinda- Melt, partly otrset by the loss of sore OW' Mentally, a policy that assures rational amenities and The: rievi for more wbr energy pricing, hacked with efficiency sto-i.+Lcuts uel-consuniption Fegulations in cases of classic market fail- by orliF fourth,- 1: strggeq, then, ure, offers the best hope of enew con- effort f.i)1 collecting fuel is s ervat ion . in rest dernitand conirci al scatty reduced, fflrie stove has a chim- buildings. . , ney, moreover, cooks we exposed tp far lmp'roving energy efficiency in resi less sIlikXe and living spate's are node . dences in developing commies presents more conifortahlf. Lighting can be re- ia different but no less important prob- . placed with kerosene, but at additional lem.Fuelwood and charcoal provide two exprnse. ''thirdsof all energy used in Africa and a One serious ,problem ,ifith stoves is third of that used in Asia. Wood, in fact, that Irally made versionsliften deterio- supplies the equivaldm offt.5.5 million rate to thsoint where they no longer f barrels of oil per itty, -SO percent Of save fuel. This is 'common where-clay is Which 'is usea for cooking. Indeed, one ii4ed for construction. Reinforcing the of the worst prohltss lacing the devel- clay Or using scrametal or ceramics to oping worIcl is'sthe shrinking availability but d the stove c_ .ii improve perform- offuelfor cooking.. Asfiliklwood an . AnOtioer serious problem pis that becomes less' available, the burden of poor design lcadA to -a mismatch be- collecting and transportingit, .which tween pot§ and the cooking hotel Um; Usually falls on women and children, which they fit. RelateCrdifficulties arc the greatly adds to an already heavy work failure to include enough cooking holes load. The widening circle of firewood and the uneven, distribution- of heat collection,/moreover, adds to the del r-: among them, so that the cook is forced

estation and soil erosion . caused Kiti- to spend more 'time preparing meals. pally by lumbering,agriculture,..a d Better design can solve these problems. drought."' . Projects 'in .El Salvador,' Kenya: ands The challenge is to improve the effi -, Neal have provided experience that will '.ciency of cookstoves. without .adding to permit: be,tter design' and production." the work load, straining limited house-0 . The key to saving firewood and clang hold budgets., diminishing socloculturai are low -cost,ptefabricated stoves' that. values, or reducing the utility of the are both durable arili simple to use and cooking fire." The fire is 9ften Simply an service. The solution of technical pr4b- A arrangement of three stones that sup- Isms, alone, unfortunately; will not be port :a "cboking Wt.Long, .uncut sufficient; for the On:nen who would branches or dung cgres are fed in.fnomV',rnost benefit from imprgved stoves usu- the ishelterecU sides. The firoftsilm,.. .:,ally cannot buy them. Until women share serves as the center 'of family ivity,'more coritrol of family purstOtagS, this though it rarely is needed for he ,' Fre- ,prob)ein is not likely CO disappear. .4 quently: however; it"is the only source of

fight, . .. , ., Becausethe first step to more - efficient wood use is to shelter the fiit'Stom the wind, the social and lighting runetions of .4 i (r66) State of the World-1985 ti

POLICIES 114.)R AN ThePorldilitch Available Technol- ogy,, . io incorporated efficiency im- ENERGY-EFFICIENT FUTURE proAnents IAA enoughto make all Two drastically different visions of the courit4ies by the end of the centuryas world enep future havecome into efficient as the most efficient countries focus. On one hand, energy demand todify. It also assumed that the world models based on histay indicate that economy would 'by the year 202k be global demand will moro than double by using the most efficient and economical energy-using devices currently available. A the year 2025. On the other, analyses based on energy conservation show how Tile annual improvement rates required demarid could be heldto a much smailer to achieve these goals are 2 percent in crease, stretkhing nonrenewable en- industry and transportation and 1.5per- ergy supplies and facilitating the use of cent for buildings until the year 2000, renewable resources. -Both 'visions have and then .1.2 percent for all sectors thereafter.In claim to validity, and the one thatcomes the Worldwatch New 10 pass will depend, On Conscious policy Technology Scenario, the higherrates of choices. ipiproirement are assumed to continue David Rose of tIN Massachusetts:Insti- arrtilkli new developments want le (WC orreCht1010gyAiteMpted to reCOnr year 2025. The reference case, from t to ci e these pictures by applying Department of Energy, assumes that effi- widely ciency Will improve at only a 0.8,percent rc spected energy demand modexemed rate." . by .W Edmonds and John Reif . y of the The 'conservation contribUtion in the Institute for E9ergy Analysis. Rose ob- . two models prepared-for Worldwatch tamed energy demand results that d. was impressive: T? ie Availablerfechnol- ered by.100 percent depending on t ogy Scenario sm 175 exajoules annu- .-larnenint of conservation assumed. ally in the year 2025, an amount equal to his study didnot report the crucial ini- 60 percent of 'current 'world commercial .pact that gienservation had on energy energy use.. ,.. pricesor The crucial effect that prices. .,. The, environmental impOrtance of had on demand. Worldwatch therefore such an iffiprovenicrit t awbeseen in the! asked' Edmonds and Reilly torun, their quaruity of. sulfur produced under the modelusingconservation- improve- different assumptions. Acid-raM-formk, ments consistentwiththe potential,.ing sulfur emissions would, withoutcon-, ,demonstrated in this chapter." trols, increase by 165,percent Under the Two scenarios were created for World- likh elegy- scenario. Applicationof wttctvand c'ontraited with-a third done: available- ctiiilervation measures could previously for the' U.S. Department- of htlId these releases to. a 35 percent in- 1. ..nergy (DOE). (See Table 7-6.) Most of. crease. Emissions control technolotties thebasic assiimptioni . for economic still would be reqUiritd, but theircost grOwth, consumer price resiionse, and would be drastic-tally 'rkluced. It:is Ugly some 30-odd other ffictors wem' the that sulfur emissionkgre not kiie sole cul- same in all three: The world's eOnoniy prit inaci&rain,. but the link i's stedrig and population were assumed togrow enough t6. raise serious concern about until 2Q00 at amitial r*s of 4.2an1.2 rising emisSiont Acid train how threat- ,ifercerit, respectively. The wilyassu ip- ens .for 'ests, aquitic life, and Wilding tion that differed significancyamong the. materials .throughouteasternNorth scenarios was the amodnt of energycon-- Amoica and Europe. Withoutconser- . e servation roalized: . vation ands sulfur A.rniisions controls, i , , 71, I r ,''

4. Increasing Energy Efficiency (07) Table 7-6. World Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide and Sulfur Emissions in 1984, With Alterttative Projections for 2000 and 2025

Assumed Annual. Annual Annual Energy Efficiency Energy CarbonDiarcidc . Annual Scenario Improvement Use Emissions, Sulfur Emissions (percent) (exajoules,) (billion tons) (million tons) 1984,(estimated) 2.3 300 5.0 100

Year2000

DOE Medium 0.8 460 7.2 170

Woridwatch Available 1.8 360 5.8 120 Technology I Worldwatch New 1.8 .360 5.8 , 120 Eechnology' r

ti 4. Year 2025, I

LX_IE Mot hum 0.8 675 10.3 265

Worldwatclf !Wadable, 1.2 500 7.9 170 lyItirology

Worldwatcl New 1.8 450 7.0 135 echnolop "Measured ie terms of carbon. SOURCE: Worldwatch Institute and J. Edmonds et al., An An/gym ofPossible Filture Ain:mph/tic Retention qf uel 6(), (Washington,D.C.Ar.S. Department Of Energy, 1984). Assumptionsare described in Notes 76 and t78, . r . this Threat could double. wouldholTthe carbon 'dioxide cpncen- The conservation' scenarios would re- Oration only to 400 parts per duce carbon dioxide emissions as well. The conservation scenarios would,Aow- Scientists vr.ee (hat..far-reaching ever, redUce the buildup sufliCiently to changes in flimate will occur if provide time to find-a way to minimize at pheic coACentrations reach 600 fossil fuel combustion. pa Per, million, roughly double the The New Tecbmilogy Scenario would pre-indUstrial level. Tle DOE' scenario save 225 exajoulel a year. This projec-. would increase.the concentration to 440 tion is considered less likery, howVer, parts per' million from the 340 level. of for unlike the first one ii ree,ts on Furth The early eighties, whereas the World- technological developments. To au 41/4 watch scenwios would hold it "t0 ,even the more plausible Worldw 420. Even decreasing the laresetit level 'Conservation scenario, efficiency

of carbon .emissions. ,signiffcantly by continue to .improve at recent fate using tomass energy on'a massive scale.the end of the century.- Energy u per

" 5.

(1(8) %te of the World---.1Q85 unit of output declined .at about 4 per- energy per unit of economic output, but cent per year between .1960 and 1978, they are telling indicators of the..poten- but then dropped 2 percent yearly after UM for reducing the energy intensity of 1979.77 the world economy. Steel, aluminium, The difference between the high and chemicals, paper, and cement- product the low energy futures would have nil- tion consume most of the energy used in portant. economic and environmental indtistrv. Cars and trucks burn up most consequences. Oil production equal to of the energy used in transpiration. And the current output of Saudi Arabia and furnaces; appliances, and lights account Venezuelawouldbesaved.Coal for most of the energy in buildings. So amounting to 40 percent more than the these uses hold a good deal of the tech- entire world uses today would b'e saved.. nical and economic potential fOr energy Energy worth $2trillion would be saved conservation. m the year. 2025, almost $300 per per- The role of energy prices in these sce- son. In compri-sort, .the 'cost of energy narios is crucial, ifalib.) complex and sur- saved would, throughout the period, av- prising. It is complex because energy de- erage only about half die cost of new mand risesas prices fall,yet energy energy supplies. prices rise as demand riKs. The effect of 1he potential for improvements in the prilhe is further complicated by conserva- world's major uses of energy can be con- tion that occiirs not eas a result of price trasted with the target rates assumed in increase but of technical innovation. the Worldivatch Available Technology The role of price is surprising because Scenatio. For the world.) steel industrV to eventhoughpriceincentivesbring match the current Japanese level of Oh- about Conservation, lower energy costs cienv by the end of the century, for ex- resulted from.the two Worldwatch sce- ,amplq, it will have to raise energy effi- narios than from the' DOE.. projection, .ciency at an annual rate of 2.3 percent. Oil, for example, would cost $52 'per But if by then it is to save as much energy barrel in 2025 in the Worldwatch ,Availa- as present costs already justify, itwill , ble Technology future, compared with have to increase efficiency at *lost 4 $57 in the DOE future. Conservation oc- percent a year. Meeting economically curs both is a result orprite pressure feasible leels of efficiency in aluminum, and technical innovation. The modelers chemicals, and cOment production r- actually into-v(11rd to keep prices up, quires improvement rates of1-3 percent but nth.as,high as if conservation had per year. And if the world by the year worked well. They,perforiutad Atli4 2000 is to record autojuel economy. as policy equivalents of paomOtingAtts "high as the Japanese now register, it will vation with taxes, regulations, informa- have to increase energy efficiency at an tion programs, incentives, research and annual rate of 2.3 percent. Getting 45 development, and leadership. The natu- miles pen gallon by 2025 -means-'elli- ral result was both lower energy prices ciency will have t9 riseiatabout 2 percent And lower energy demand is a year. Last, to reach currently economi- Some pessimism is warrantesd,,, how- cal Olds of (merit), use in buildings will ever: 'The policiesthat would bring pine. improving at1.5 percent per about maxirbion etnigy conservation ae r between now.and the -year 2025. Of are clearly not in 441ace. Over half .the cours4if cnergprices increase any at world operates kgVsystern without price all; Morb consertltitntwinbe needed.. signals that contlfiltihOte the value of 114e rates arc riot directly compara- energy.' Wheyel is allocatedior ra- ble tO the rap of change.irf the use of tioned it Nuais used inefficiently:1n Increasing Energy Elliciericy (160 market echomies, energy use iskencour- sinners for the external costs of energy. aged by tax credits for energy gtOduc- These goverpments impose taxesto tion, by subsites for declining and charge energy. users for the burden to inefficient energy-using industries, and society their consumption represents, by price eo9trols. Many fitcets of the en- including the burden of enviVontnental ergy market in 0E10 countries are pro- damage and of needing foreign ex- tected frommarket mechrisms. Electric change toimportoil. .France,Italy, power, for example, is a regulated indui- Japan, and West 6ermany generally pur- (ry, and constimers pay a. price far belov sue these policies, They typically impose electricity's marginal value. The auto in-. taxes on oil, for example, that increase dustry, the prorffict of which is a major the purchase price. energy consumer, is sheltered and subsi- Energy 1)rie increases have -'stimn- dized and functions as a virtual-monop- late4 more conservatiolithan,any other oly in most countries.` factorwitness the doubling of *flitT Six policy tools can influence the in- ciency improvement rates following the, tensity of energy use: energy price, effi- two price hikes of the seventies,, A de-- ciency regulations, capital availability, tailedanalysisof why energyuse eiel't information, research, and le'. ership. chatged in the United States after 1973 Price is by far the most import' In. The reinforces this conclusion. Eric Hirst led ___kastenergy-efficient economiesare a study at Oak Ridge National Labora- those that have virtually told people that tbry that estimated the country now uses energy is not precious and can he used almost N percent less energy than it liberally. They impose price controls would have if policies had not changed. and subsidies that distort market signals Price rises caused two thirds of the con- and lead to waste. Canada, Norway, 'the servation response in the United States. SovietUnion; -the United States, and the 1-lirstand his coauthors suggest that the oil-producing developing countries, to remaining thiqt-iftly be due to a variety eat *pr lesser. degrees, belong to (hi* of government theirres such as auto-. category. mobile fuel economy standards." - Some countries have recently reduced Jae Edmonds ....Pointsout, however, energy subsidies, The United States and that energy, scarcity at4ne may not be Canada have eliminated the-Tuost impor-; enough to encourage.alevel of conserva- tarn consumer. subsidy, oil' price con- tion consistent with a low energy future. trols, bnrcotiiinue to coptrol the price of The widespread belief' that an oil glut large quantities of natural gas. The ,will persiSt for years has already dimin- . World Barkhas used its leverage to en- ished conservation efforts and may con-: .courage the eliminaticin of price subsi-/tinue to do so. Price increases, more- dies wherever it could (particularly those ove, will have little effect in 'centrally for gasoline), even denying loans in planned nations insulated from pride some instances to 'Egypt, Mexico, _and signals or in regulated markets such as

Veiteznela, partially-because thesecourt- . that lotoelqtric,power. And as-the 'world tries subsidized energy prices. Recently, depends more of electricity, the role of "Brazil, ndonesia, the Ivo%Coast; South markets. in deteTMining energy prices Korea, and Turkey have rritived to elimi- will diminish.81 nate or tfitri.measOres that encourage There is the flirther problent- of mar- 1 mere was ket failure. The classic case lt.the appli- 4. .Th 3t tcient, nations are those ance bought by a landloyd who floes not thait only aveaccepeed the reality cif Pay the energy bill for operatirTg it. The mar pricetut also bill:eitergy con - landlord has every iiteentiyiuto buy the -71 4.

(t70) State theWorld-1985 least costly furnace or water heater, not have implemented a variety of energy to pay more for one that will stie energy conservation information and assistance costs. The tenant who will pay the en- programs. Efficiency labeling of energy ergy -bill has no say in the choice of appli- consuming products such as automo- ame. Another, ,example is the case of the biles, tires, firi-naces, and refrigerators more efficient but slightly more expen- has been a very useful gove -Innen'. rune- sive automobire. Manufacturers comld,. non in Sweden, the Unit States, and improve the fuel economy of their cars Western Europe. Other Measures such by I 0--30 miles per gallon at an addi- as voluntary efficiency goals, efficiency tionalcost of $100-300 per vehicle. audits, and grant programs have a mixed They balk at doing so, however, fearing record of achievement, but Many de- that the slighth' higher purchase price serve continued support. The success of will decrease sales: Consumers typically these programs seems to depend on na- pay Rnore attention to the purchase price tional leadership, for they arc taken most of items than to potential life-cycle en-. seriously when Popular leaders elevate ergy costs.: their importance. 4 * In summary, nothing substitutes for :_... realistic energy pricing policies. Market Market pricing and the retiioval of pricing and the removal of energy con- energy consumption subsidies are sumptionsubsidies,therefore,are prerequisitesfor energy prerequisitesforanenery-efficient econon y 'Faxing energy use., however, efficient economy.. could pisivide governments with a supplemental solution, one that would help resolve-several problems: Conservation New technological developments will would be encouraged, altternative energy be necessary to attain the more-efficient supply fostered, and deficits financed: A Woridwatch scenario. Promising areas portion of the tax revenues would be re- for research lie in the- development of quired to protect low-income. groups new materials for, making lighter au- from the negative effects of the tax. tomobiles, ceramics for lighter engines, Regulatory policies can provide a min- high-temperature sensing and control imulevel of efficiency where. markets systems, -large IiHt piimps, and entirely fail or do not exist. The obvious targets new industrial processes. Industry sup- for minimilm performance standards are . port rOr research varies widely by cate- automobiles, furnaces, iv er heaters, air gory, with, the iron and steel and the conditionens, and heat>umps, Auto - paper industries spending relatively very -makers, for example, should .at last be U.S.Government. supportfor en- .reqnired to increase fuel economy, to -30 ergy conservation research has declined and 45 miles per gallon by, respectively, precipitatisly because of Reaga.r ad- the end of the century and:the year 2025. ministration cuts. But as the WorldWatch Minimum petfOrmance levels might also Available TechnologyScenario- bi. required for industries in centrally the greatest opportunity for con- Manned economics, although the come servationlies in putting know'h measures plexity of such standards as welt as re- Mu> practice. Innovations of this tyr dundancy makes them undesitable in willdepend heavily on,the spread of In- market economies. The standards cho- formation 'on. their value and .availabiL sen 'for all items should be based on tmir7 40? ginal energy costs,., vrieluding. the envi- ' . Mangy: countries in botfrEast and West ronMental and other external costs of

1' IA-easingEmir Efficiency Cr 71 ) energyeAs Clark Bullard of the Univer- ergy or freeing up extra Thel, for export. sity of Illinois suggests, regulatory policy Cimscrvation can be considered a way to seldom can take society beyond the promote economic growth by Cutting 'economically desirable levels, and in- capital requirements for energy and thus deed should not do 303: Nevertheless, making funds available formore-pro- regulatiopscall, provide an insurance ductiveeconomicinvestmentselse- policy against failure... where. And they can view conservation Policymakers are thus presented with as a preventive for catastrophic climate the task of making energy policyon nu- change or forest damage as a result of merous fronts. Many industries,ser-- carbon dioxide, acid rain, and all the vices, and, finally, people will be affected other environmental problems caused in complex, sometimes conflictingways. by energy use. flut the most in policies The risk of failure, whetherfrom t to a few manageable items, and thethemost undue pessimism or failureof will, is timporiint benefits clearlyare worth the ki-crat. The risk includes overbuildingen- effort. ergy facilities, overstressing energy capi- Leaders can think of conservation tal budgets, and overburdening the envi- 'Many ways. They din see it,, forexamp e, ronment. It is a risk that need not he as a way to improve trade balanCesy borne. ehher reducing the need toimportry:

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1, .4 8

Harnessing Renewable Energy Christopher Miyin and Cynthia Pollock

Amid falling_ oil prices and laissez-faire of dainagato forests and crops from acid energy, poliaes in some countries, re- rain and air pollutants documented in newable energy development might be Chapter 5 suggests that the need for ex- expected to I,4g badly. In fact, worldwide pensive pollution control technologies reliance ,pn renewable energy sources will constrain growth in coal use. In the has grown more than 10 percent per United States, nuclear power's financial year since the late seventies, chiefly due problems Ave worsening,burdening to a surge in the use of hydropower and utilitieswATI $15-billion worth of can- wood fuel. Solar collector sales have lev- celed plants. and another $100 billion eled off in many countries, but the use of tied tin tilftits under construction. Al- wind power is growing at an unprece- though the ,e two sources will faitinue dented pace, thanks largely to the stun- to be major contributors to t1vorld ning development-of-wind farms in Cal- energy budvtitheir. potential is clearly ifornia..Over5,000turbineswere limited. installed in 1984 alone, setting the stage Improved energy efficiencys indiCat- fbr wind power to be a significant energy ed in. Chapter 7, is the mos economi- source in many countries. In brazil, one cal and least,envitonmentally disruptive of the largest countri6 in the Third of thealternativeenergystrategies World, alciihol from sugarcane provides being pursued. anditdeserves the 43 percept of automotive .fuel. Techno- higheSt priority on national agendas. logical advances continue across a wide Technologies that tap -renewable energy spectrum of new energy sources. sources must therefore be compatible the;prospects for some re- with the less energy-intensive systems newableRoosting energy sources is the mounting that are likely to develop in many parts evidence that coal apd nuclear power are of the world. Although efficiency will in not the long-run akernativvi to oil that a sense- lir iir the size of the market for many had hoped. The growing evidence new energy sources it is unlikely to seri-

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Harnessing ReRewable Ene7gy 1'73) ously constrain th't renewables 'industry inten ve wind fat-ms and solar thermal in the near future. The market forre- power echnologies are expected to replacing outmoded and uneconomical sult in land-use battles msome parts of fossil-fuel-based systems isenormous, the world. There are trade-offsto be providing roles for both efficiency and made in the development ofany energy renewables. source, and renewables will realize then Some of the progress in renelable en- promise only if theseconcerns are ad- ergy technologies in the past decade hag dressed early. been stimulated by.' government-spon- The four renewableenergy sources sored R&D. 'These effortsare modest, and technologies discussed in this year's however, dwarfed in most countries by State of the 'World are at varyingstages of continuing support foil nuclearpower comMercialization:Hydropowerhas and fossilfuel technologies. And in long been economical and iswidely soma cases they have been misdirected used. Solar water heating and alcohol With ,heavy expenditures, for example, fuels arc economical in certain circum- on the development of large wind ma- stances and steady progress isbeing chines when smal units developed made.'Solar thermal'power technologies commercially for a lion of the cost are more problematic, but evidence is have turned out to be ar moresuccess- increasingly,persuasive that some will be ful. But generally the public funds have feeding electricity into the world's utility been well spent and have paved theway grids within a decade. Alcohol willsoon f for private industry. be the main automotive fuel in Brazil, . One sure sign--that renewable energy but it has found only limiteduse in most has come of age is the increasingly tough other countries. questions the industry must face. In the United states, the issue of whether re- 'newablrenergy tax creditsshonld beex- tended beyond 1985 has bc>.comea .major political question,- brought tothe. HYVROPOWER fore by the several hundred million dold lars of tort,skiers that went to wind Falling water currentImprovides nearly 'farms aim -in 84. As with new energy one quarter of the world's electricity. A sources it) the -pzist, tax subsidies have major stimulus to the industrial revolu- itiv.en the renewable energy industrya tions in North America old Western nieeded carry. boost, but, such subsidies kurope, hydropower was overshadowed are only 'justified if they lead to rap00by the growth -ittf+ fossil fuel use 'during commercialization of an economicalen- the half-century of falling oil prices. ergy source. Tax credits.- shoulc and More recently, the search for less expeti-, probably will be withdrawn when they sive, indigenous energy sparkeda boom , are no long& justified. . -- in die. use of" this' traditionalsource. ,The environniental and .socilit t (*se- Thousands of hydroelectric projectsare quences. of renewable energy. Orojects under construction on four continents, also.require serious evaluation. Massive, but conflicts surrounding the economic hydropowertim'ojects being built in some and environmental., *merits of thisstrat- developing countries may not be woirth egy are far fromresolved. Most of the their economic and. ecological _C*Sts. large hydro projects 'arc in the 'Third Some alcohol-fuel programs threaten to . Worldnrand many threaten to inundate tie up valuable agricultural land and fur- valuable cropland, destroy rale species, ther disenfranchise the ruralpoor. Lan0- and displace indigenous peoptes.

188 Stateof.the WorldI985 Table 8-1, Countries Obtaining More 1982 World Bank survey found that 10 , Than Half Their Electirlfity From nations planned to a re than, 5,000 ' Hydropower megawatts each fromt:1980through 1995. At a time when new orders for coal Proportion of and nuclear plants have slowed, the pace. Total Electricity Of darn construction, has acseAfrated. Capacity That Is Brazil, Cana, the Soviet UnfOh,. and Hydroelectric Countries the United States have the largest con - 90-100 Bhutan, Ghana, 410S, struction programs, but plIs for future Norway, Uganda, darns are centered in the Third World, Zaire,'Zattibia where electricity demand isgrowing . 80-89 Brazil, Iceland, most rapidly) Luxembourg, Large dams, the cheapest source of Mozambique, Nepal, electricity in most areas where they can Rwanda, Switzerland be used, are going up at an unprece- 70-7Q, Cameroon, Conp.fjo, dented pace: The Moyer, built in the Costa Rica, Malawi, United' States in 1936:was, the. first to exceed 1`50. meters in height: By 1980, . Sri Lanka 60-69 Afghanistan, AngOla, just 65 large darns had been constructed; Austria, Colombia. 44 more arc due to be completed before Ethiopia,Ivory coast, - the end of 1990-26 in Latin America Mali, New Zealand, and Asia alone.i North Korea, The use of 'electricity in developing Paraguay, Tanzania countries, though tempered by recent economic problems, is growing far fas'ter 501-59 Bolivia, Canada, Central African Republic, than in industrial nations. Large foreign . Chile, Dominica, debts and sluggish economic perform- Egypt, Gabon, ance may slow dam construction, which Honduras, Kenya, is very. capital-intensive, but the World Pent, Portugal, Bank poets hydro capacity in the der Sudan, Surinam, v mg world to double in the eight- Sweden, Uruguay ies.' Once darns are built, electricity can be generated without fuel in .)orts, re- soutter.s: World Bank, Energy Department, "1981 clueingforeign-exchangeneeds;But Powei/Energy Data Shpet for 100 Deyelopin Countries," Washy ton,D.C.,March1984 many hydro projects cost billions of dol- tiniteckNatitins, Yearbook of World Energy Sialtslic. lars and Create debt problems of theft- 1981 (New York: 1983). owli-tmtilobnstpruction loans are repaid. 4 China and Bfatil: have the largest and Some half iozen nations around thep most ambitious, h4i-o blueprints. While world My almost exclusively on water ,China has the greater potential, Brazil is their electricity and;dozensmore building more rapidly; itgl'hydroelectric 4 generate over half their power at darns, capacity is expectedip double by 1993. . (See Table 84.) During the past five In China, the 10,000megawattsofhydro %years, 10 countries have increased their capacity under construction in1980 hydroelectric capacity by over 57,000 were enough to expand the.country's hy- Megawatts'..---the equivalent of 57 large drOelectric output by more than half, nuclear reactors, Ore Table 8-2.) tfp,vel- The ambitious government plan envit oping countries get over two 'MI of;sions building 10 Majorhydroelectric their electricity from hydropower, and a facilities by the turn of, the century, "each Harnessing Renewable Energy (,17.5 Toble 8-2. Countries With iIskjor tlydroileetrie Additions Between 1978 and 1983 Operating Capacity Capacity Country 1978 1983 Increase Increase (megawatts) (percent)

Brazil . 22,000 4 34,035 12,035 55 Canada 41,898 51,512 9,614 23 Soviet Union 47,500 55.889' 8,389 18 United States 70,989 78.968 7,Q79 11 Japan 26.099 33.313 7,214 28

Norway 17,000 21,2901 4,290 25` France 18,675 21,300 2,625. 14 Mexico. 4,54 6,500 43 India 10,832 12,5611 1,729 16 Argentina 2,935 4,646 1,711 58

Total 262,469 320,014 57,545 22 1982. 'Capacity i . sooacc: Worldwatch Institute. based on World Bank, U.S. Department of Encl.-00am.! personal communications with embassies, consulting firms. and utility representatives. c consisting of several 'large dams. The equally by the two vountries, but tiny Three Gorges project being considered Paraguay will sell altritost all its share to for the Chang Jiang (Yinigtze) River the rapidly expanding cities and indus- .would produce up to 13,000 megawatts tries of southern BraziI.6 of power.4. Industrial .countries with plans' for The hest hydroelectric project cur- major hydro expansion include- Austria, rently being built is on the Parana River Canada, the Soviet Union, and the between Paraguay and Brazil. Uni(ed States,ustria intends to expand "singing rock" in the Guarani Indian di- its hydroelectric capacity by 45 percent alectwill have almost twice the capac- between 1982 and 1995; the Soviet ity of the previous record. holder, the Unioji has five large dams: slated for Grand Coulee. (See Table 8-3.) The first completion during' the eighties; and in two generatorg started operating in Oc- the United States, where 8",.000 mega- tober 1984, and when completed in the watts Of capacit'y have been added in the early nineties, 18 generators will pro- past five years, 23 states plan tO harness duce 12,600 megawatts ofpower. The more hydropower by 1991.6 cost is estimated at $.18 billion. Five Many of the large hydro projects miles long and,half the height of the Em- being built in theynited.States and the pire State building, the dam is regarded Soviet .0.pion are intended only to meet as one of the world's premier-engineer- peakper,edexpand. Water is released ing achievements, Brazil and Paraguay when pads high and then electric are to manufacture . 85 percent of the pumps refill The'reservoir at night when equipment, though the -project was de- demand is low and electricity is cheaper. signed and financed by corporations and In, the United 'States, 16 petcent of total banks from around the world. The elec- hydroelectric capacity is derived -film,' tricity produced at Itaipu will be owned pumped-storage facilities. Although the

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(176) State of theWorld-1983 practi4 results ina,net energy loss, it Electricity produced inwestern Canada saves consumers money,1 is exported to California, andan agree - In Canada, where almost 70percent of ment between Manitoba and six North- the nation's electricitycomes from fall- ern _Plains states is imminent.8 . ing water,..several maior projectswill be Growing international sales of hydro- completed by 1985. By, diverting tie riv- power confirm that falling water'can ers emptying into James Bay and build- profitably produce electricity for ing three larke dams, Ilydro- distant Quebec ob- cities. First employed in Swedenin 1952, tained 10,300 megawatts ofpower. The high-voltage transmission lines enable company markets an additional 5,225 long-distance transport of electricity. megawatts A fromtherecenstly! built 1,700-kilonieter line, the longestin the, Churchill Falls Dam underan agreement world, Was inaugurated in Zairehi 1984. with the provincial government ofNew- Ghana, Laos, Mozambique, Uganda,and foundland. Hydro- Quebec sellsmost of'Zambia all export hydroelectricityto this power in Canada, but about 11"per- their energy-thirsty,iteighbors.Q..Midthe cent of it_s revenues are earned from wealth of untapped hydropowerin sales to the United States. In 1984Can- Nepal could awl the Industrialkrowth of ada.exported some $1.5-billion worth of India to its south, where developmentis electricity, and trade is expectedto reach constrained by insufficient electticitr. $5 billion by 1989. Utilities inNew York Onc alternative to internationaltrade and throughout New England,which in' electricity is for energy-intensive-iu- -currently depend on expensive oiland dustries to move to.areas with inexpeli- nuclear plants, have already signed mut-. sive power sources. Aluminum smelters tiyear contractswith Hydro-Quebec. require inore electricityper fon of prod- Table 8-3. Largest Hydelectric Plants, Operatingor Under Construction, 1984

Expected Rated Capacity or Actual Pla t Country Upon Completion Completion Date (megawatts) (year) Itaipu Brazil/Paraguay 12,600 f990* James Bay Canada 10,2691 Guri ib85 Venezuela 10,000 1986 Tucurui Brazil 8,000 Grand Coulee 1985 United States 6,494' 1942 Sayano-Shushensk Soviet Union 6,400 1984

Corpus Posadas Argentina/Paraguay 46,000 Krasnoyirsk 1988 Soviet Union 6,Q00 ., 1973 Churchill Falls Canada 5,225 Bratsk 1971 Soviet Union 400 1964 Ust-Minn Soviet Union 41500 1978 Vacyreta-Apipe Argentina/Paraguay 4,050 Cabira Bassa 1988 Mozambique 4,000 1974.s, . 'Combined output of La Grande 2,3,4. souscts: T.W. Memel, "Major Darns of theWorld-1983,"Water Power & Dam Construction, Hydro-9yebtc,nttal Report 1983 (Montreal: 1983). August 1983;

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BEST COPY AVAILABLE Harnessing Renewable Energy 4177) uct than any- other coitimodity,en- that liave been allowed to deteriorate couraging producers to move to sparsely over the years are benig repaired; Thou- populated river basins where power is sands could be retrofitted on the tea cheap. -Northern Quebec, the Brazilian plantations of Sri .Lanka,attnio. Amazon, Siberia, and southern Australia China leads the world in small hydro- haveallrecentlybecomeat trattive power 'development: Over 90,000 gener- U

places to do business. Large hydroclec-,N; _ ators- installed since 1952 supply more tric darns are still starting rip service in .Aran one third of the electricity in rural these areas for $1,000 per kilowatt m- are4s. Conimunities and individuals ess. A moro typical c-onstroction cost lop givmtechnisal iissistance encour- a 'dro plant is $1,500 per kilowatt, al- aged to install, manage, and reap the mos double that of a coal plant but only profits of a g'exwrating fality. The bulk' 50-45 recent as"nruchasknutlt:ar laul- of the projects are under aken at the itv. Countering ,theas.:fligh inyestrient eonimuniti, level 'using total skills and' casts is the fact that hydro plants have at cesOurces. At least 6Q (act9ries,'employ,-

least twice the li.filvectancy of1h0-mal: ring over 8,000 people, produde the writ"- .,.. generating units, their ,operating costs ponents of smelt plants. 'rho.average arc extremely add fuelikPsts generating capacity per site Ills risen (0 zero.lo 80 kilowatts and is growing rapidly. Ac- cording to one manufactwer in 1-1ang= -* zhou, East China, his 7-kiloWatt unittaR Small hydro plants can Qecommi- be built and installed in less than a cally supply many rural areas with month. hi 1983, China completed 1,150 electricity people Would otherwise small hydropower stations, adding- an aggregate generating capacity of ,400' be-unable to afford. megawatts.).' BCCRUSC China has actively.developed small hydro technology and.c.)thers haVe,: Technologies are also available to har- not kept pace, its hydrci equipment_A-- ness the energy of smaller rivers and noW being .used, ill a streams. Very small turbines and genera- tries. Turbines arc oxp6rted tors, with an output of several megawattst,Pakistan,Peru,, thePhilippines,Sri or less, are the+ most suitable for many Lanka, and the A.hinkl States-, The tall- applications, especially in developing est export:deal. to date is Colombia: countries. -Iioaay two billion people are Ttle,c6nira6tnispr generating plants,: without reliable electricity; most will not $59. 'Million, and iucludes in- be reached by utility grids during their a01 assistanee and the.training of lifetimes. Even in countries like Zaire ColeVcbthi) *gale. PaytireaWill be incorn- st and Brazil with immense hydro poten- modi ie-3-7-cotton, sugar, coffee, cocoa, tial, large projects will not reach the ma- leather; anditplywoodwhich is an inter- jority of rural people for many decades. (...4tin example of the giowing tern. mical Small hydro plants can economically cooperation betWeen developing .cottn- supply many rural areas with electricity tries.q. people would otherwise he unable to In rural Pakistanwhere electricity is.. afford. Ami, water tlreviously harnessed used plimarily for ligtitiug, a 10-kilowatt- for other purposesflood control, 6-6- hydro plant provides- enough power for ; gation, or municipal drinkingsuprlies abont,1-00fainilies (coMpared with just 2' is being r uted through turbines to en- families in the United States). The use of hance itsroductivity. LikewiSe, dams local materialvoluntary labor, and ( z78) Skate of M. World-1985 commnnitl administration has kept the capacity of 272 megawattwerein op- costs of hydroelectric facilities surpris- erationasof February 1984. Another ingly low$350 -500 per kilowatt. Sev- 164 projects, which would add 300 eral dozen plantsare already operating megawattswereunder construction, and an even greater numberare planned Environentalistsand community or under construction. A more typical leaders in New England and the Pacific. cost for shall -scale hydro projects In the Northwest have rightly questioned the 'United States is $2,0004,000per kilo- desirability of civuning all poterail watt. eductions are dearly possible, sites. Building several small projects ina however,as turbine technologies ari watershed is probably justified.itimany standardized and packages are,tailorea- cases, although parks, wildernessareas, to the needs of developing nations. and scenic rivers should be protected. A Likinly adaptations include using sturdy growing numbet- of river basins, how- localmaterialsthatrequire minimal ever, arc threatened with overdevelop- maintenaince and. forgoing theuse ofso- ment. For example, more than 45 ap- pliisticatedtechnologies tocontrol plications have bee fliedfor hydro water and electricity flows." projects on the Si-ilmon River in Idaho. If Smallhydrodevelopmentinthe alt of these were developed, 'fish and United States is being encouraged by the. other aquatic- 14 could be irreparably Public Utility Regullnory Policies Art of harmed.' 5 1978, which requires electric utilitiesto Although no mechanism existsin purchase power from small, indepen- most European countries for selling pri- dent suppliers. In most states the utili- vately generated electricity tostate utilities must pay for, the elepricity at its ties, there arc still opportunities to de- "avoided cost" of. production,a great rive power from mountainstreams. An stimulus to hydro development. The upgrading program recently been in New England -River Basins Commission France calls for the installation of 27 estimated in 1980 that the potential of small, hydro turbines at nine exist.ig the region's 8,300 existing or former dams on'theRiver Var. The(listu its, dam sites equaled about 7 percent of the commissioned in 1984,.re designeto area's generating c-apacity.14 Notsur- provide. 10 percent of Nice'spower. An prisingly, permit applicationsioreserve inventory of sites in Cxechoslovakiare- potential development sites flooded the vealed that 15,000 small hydroelectric Federal Energy Regulatory Camnis- stations in operation in 1930 had fallen sion, reaching a peak of 1,856 in 1981.. into disuse. The preliminarysurvey in- (See Table 8-4.) Despite this early inter- dicated that 10,000 of the plants, each est, the number of licenses issued annu- under 100 kilowatis, could be economi- ally did not reach the level widelypie- cally renovated. The overhauling will be -dieted. Only 138 projectswitha total subsidized by the state and managed by

Table 8-4. United States:. Permits and licenses forHydroelectricPlants, 1978-83

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total Preliminary Permit Applications, 36 76 501 1,856 944 624 4,037 Pi.-eliminary Permits Issued 2 13 138 578 75() 4 l6 1,897 License Applications 25 33 86 , 100 267 260 771 Licenses nsued 21 10 75. 66 55 88 315 souRcE: Idaho National Engineering Labora ory, "hydroelectric DevelopmentHistory and Future Trends," prepared for the 1.1.5. Department of Energy, January 1984.

BEST WY AVAILABLE 193 Harnessing Renewable Energy 0791 public and private agencies." facilities are too expensive aocl water- The costs and ,benefits of hydropower sheds`oo valuable to allow this-co con- development must of course be carefully tinue. A reservoir that. is filling fapidly weighed. Too often- dams have been with sediment is not a renewable energy construced without sufficient planning., source. Better planning and detailed en- leading fo unforeseen and univanted vironmental assessments., can:. mitigate consequences. Inadequate fish handling most of these' problems. Comprehen- facilities have eliminated access tepessen- sive watershed-management programs tial spawning at as, reservoirs have ex- should be fiirmulqted before dztm con- panded the bre7ding grounds (Or snails struction is begun. If the potential envi- that spread schistosomiasis, anli the re- ronmennii impacts are evaluated early in creational benefits attributed to artificial the planning process, unsound projects lakes are often less valtialllo than the can be scrapped before they become fail- wildlife and whike-water eiver activitie. ures. they replace. In aidition, large- project Throughout- the world, hundrtds of oftendisplaceindigenouspeoples, thousands of megawatts of hydroelec- whose cultures and life-srviesit irrevo- tricity have already been harnessed, but cably altered even if they rec1filve new the remaining potentialis enormous. land in return for their flooded home- The 1980 World Energy Conftrence land." predicted that global hydroelectric out- The flooding of Lake Brokopondo in' put would quadruple between 1976 and Suriname in 196.1 created the first_ large 2020. And the World Bank, based on its reservoir in a rain forest and a.noRious 1982 survey, estimates that installed hy- stench that persisted for years. Instead droelectric capacity in 100 developing of razing the forest and earning millions countrieswillalmosttriple_ between of dollars of fOrrign exchange for the 1980 and 1995. Yet even after this in- lumber, 570 scriare miles of trees disap- crease, only two thirds df the economi- peared underwater. Their subsequent cally feasiblY hydro potential will have Aecomposition,produced acids that col-- been captured." , rod(461 the dram's cooling system and in- Although large-scale hydroelectric de- tolerable amounts of hydrogen sulfide. velopment in industrial countries ap- Unfortunately, the experience,has been pears to be slowing, a growing number repeated even in' the most recent-proof developing countries ire investing jects.Water hyacinth,aPlantthat spreads rapidlyin impounded reser- huge sums of money in both large- and voirs,is another unwanted result of small scale projects. With carefirl plan- some hydro developmenA: It clogs turning and an eye toward social and tpvi- bides anti robs other aquatic life pfes- ronmental impacts, the long-term pro- sential nutrients." .ductivitythatwouldjustifythese One of the most persistent problems investments can be realized. associated with hydroelectric developments is the Failure to maintain stable , watersheds. Asdescribed in Chapter 3, deforestation of riverbanks often results in _accelerated erogion and rapid sedi- NEW DIRECTIOKS IN OLAR nictitation, of waterw ays and reservoirs. WATER HEATING NumerouS examplesexistof dams whose lifetimeswere cut short, some-. Since the early, seventies, solar water times by more than half, because of heating using Hat-plate collectors has unanticipatedsiltation.Hydroelectric been one of the best publicized renew- ss. 194 t, (180) ` Slakeof the World-1985 ableenergytechnologies.- Although systems that incOrporate both a collector soipetimes overshadowed by more daz- and tank and rely on natural circubition zling innovations, both commercial and predominate. Most_ merican systems,. residential solar heating continue to ort the other hand,re pump-driven, grow.Ininvi'yareasof 'Australia, with a separate indoor storage tank. Greece, and Israel, most homeS heat Solar collectors arc most popular in their water.with solar collectors, Among areas where fuel costs are high and sun- larger countries, Japan and the United shine plentiful. Irsrael, with 320 dayS of States do the most solar water heating, annual sunshine 4ind virtually no oil re- and each supports a solar industry with serves, has installed over 500,000 sys- sales of several,lamdred million dollars tems,eno.ughto meett percent of the a year. - tountry's hot water nee s. Israeli roller- tors are locally designed and. relatively simple, with most single-family homes Th Israeli Government expects 60 needing just a 1.50-liter storage tank. percent of the country's hot water. Electricity is used as a backup, ,but the to be heated by solar collectors by typical household spends only $25 a year 1990. on supplemental Water hea'ting.21 Israel's solar systems are successful in part because they sell for only $600, less than a fifth the average price ri (he Although the sun has been um.c1 to dry United States. Since 1980, the 'Israeli crops !ind heat homes for millennia, Government has alio offered modest modern solar watereating dates from Solar tax credits, and solar water he. t 1891, when a flat-p ()Hector was pat- is required on all new homes and apart- ented in Baltimore. gland. California 'tent buildings less than seven .stories engineer William Bailey developed the highshe government expects '6 er- first commercial sytetn in1909. His cent of the country's 'hot water to be "Day and Night" collector consisted of a heated by solar collectors by 1990. Isra- glass-covered box with a metal absorber eli universities, research institutes, and plate and copper tubing. The tendency privatecompaniesareinternational

of hot water to rise circulated the heated leaders in this technology and havede- , water to a separate storage tank. By'veloped a substantial export market in 1918, some 4',000 systems had been Europe, the Middle and Far East, and sold. The availabill'ty of cheap natural North and South America. One Israeli gas in California en the twenties caused company has installed 4Q0,000 systems the collector market to collapse, but in 22 cOuntries,22 solar heating became popular in Florida. In Europe, solar water heating is most By thelack thirties, 50,000 systems had popular in Greece. The Energy Ministry been installed Ai the Miami area, cover- estiwnktes that there are 100,000 small ing the roofs of four out of five new domestic ,systems in place, as well as homes.2° hundreds in hotels. Approximately ?50-,- After the oil price increases'of the sev- 000 square meters of, collectors have enties, solar water heating again became been installed. On many Greek Islands popular. The technology has changed siMple rooftop collectors are usedon only Modestly: Air, water, or another the great Majority of houses. France also fluid circulates from the collector to a has, about 250,000 squaw meters O. sank, carrying the sun's heat to where it solar collectors, most of them the more': itneeded. In Israel and Japan, "passive" expensive pumped-circulation designs.

.195 4 0 Harnessing- Penewable Energy (181-)

, 1 An extensive program of govermnent capita user; behind Israel' and Japan. support aims to have two millidn squate COsts of less than $1,000 make collec- meters installed by 1990, enough to he-at tors economical in the rural: "outback" water for over 4(10,000 houses:" . where fuels must be trucked long dis- The European Economic Community tances. Australian solar companies have assists with the financing of solar hot steadily improved their collector designs water Systems on much of the continent. and are major collector exporters." This together with government incen- Many other counties have made sonic tive programs, has led to limited use of use .4f solar heating. China had 80,000 the technology, in Italy, the United,King- square meters of collectors in place in dom,and West Germany. About 20,00Q 1980. South Korea also has collectors on British homes have solar - heated water. many. rooftops. In India and Nepal,hull- In Eastern Europe, all the members of dreds of government-rup institutions COMECON now have plans to use solar such as schools and hospitals are being . hot water. Among the most active pro- fitted with solar heating systems. China, grams are those of Czechoslovakia and India, Mexico, and several ryfiddle East- Romania, where hundreds of aparditent ern countries are among those now con - buildings ,aresolar-heated.Bulgaria ducting rese welt on solar heating at plans to install 30,000 square meters of national univ rsities and research institutes.27 collectors by 1985.2' % . In Japan, as in Israel, the use of solar- Although affordable energy sources heated ter predates the 1973 oil em- are badly needed in most developing bargo.ccording to one estimate, prior countries, a domestic water-heating sys- to the use of gas- and oil-fired water tem other than a wood or charcoal fire is heaters in the late fifties, 38 million Japa.- beyond the means of the vast majority of nese homes had solar collectors. Since people. In an attempt to get around this the early seventies, rising petroleum problem, the government-run Central prices and a program of special govern- 144rtgage Bank in Colombia is financing ment grants and loans have led to a re- a solar heating project for 1,000 families vival of solar water heating. japan- now'ekin Medellin and Bogota. One indication has about four million solar hot water of the potential market in developing systems in place, serving over 10 percent countries is the fact that the U.S. Solar of its houses. Approximately 500,000 Corporation had by 1984 signed licens- systems are installed each year, and die ing or direct sales agreements with com- ... goal 'for 1990 is to have seven million. panies in Belie, Brazil, India, Iraq, Pan- Also planned are 6,500 apartment and ama., Peru, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, office building'systems and 1,900 for fac- South Korea, and Yemen." tories. The Tokyo city government is In some parts of the U-Aited States, adding solar heating to schools, hospi- solar water heating is widely used and tals, and ether government buildings. has a well-developed industry to support Most Japanese collectors are passive it. Centered largely in Arizona, Cantor-

models wit,hgas or electric backup. ilia, and Florida, the . U.S. industry has Prices average about $700 per system, produced over 1.5 million square meters corni)etitiVe with the cost of conven- of solar collectors annually in recent tional heating." years, representing about $700400 mil- Australia's collector industry is' one of lion of annual sales. (See Figure 8-1.) 'the world's strongest. Over 100,000 Over one million systems, spanning homes -have solar hot water systems, about 11 million square meters, have making Australia the third Illtirgest per been installed since the early seventies.

4 (184_ !State of theWorld-1985

About half these are row-temperature relatively small manufactured Andcorn - systems that are widely used in Califor- portent suppliers. Leading are is a solid nia .and Florida to heat swimming pools., core of 10 mannfactlifers that shipped Solar heating 'supplies about 2Q trillion over half the collector sold in 1983: IITUI each year, most of it from the Ventur0.into, this industry by Fortune moreellicient medium-temperaturesys- 500 companies liaVe. met with limited ,tems used for househojd water heating. /success. Exxon, for :example,sold its The U.S. Depwrunent of linergy projects solar hot water subsidiary in 1981.31 that solar water heating w01 growten- The typical U.S.: solar hotwater sys- fold by 1990." 1 4 tem-;--with pump-driven collectors anda 4 4 So tar, just. a (ew hundred thousand' largecapacitycostsabout$4,000. Americans use solar-heated water. Col- Consequently,: sales dependcan_ federal lectors have not become as popularas tax credits and similar credits available ,.. many in the industry expected. And in-29 states. But these tax breaksare use- Since 1980, the sale of low- temperature ful mainly to the wealthy. Substantialuse pool systems has L104t,more than 50 osolar collectors by low-income people percent, due to knarket aturatioli and a has only occurred where financial assist- change in Califon prohibiting tax ance or community self-help programs are available. The Tennessee Valley,Au- credits for such systems. The million91' so square meters of medimilt-tempera-- thorny,. for 'example, has supported the titre solar' collectors sold anmially since installation of '5,000 systems with.no- and low-int&est loans. Pacific Gas and 1981 are sufficient for r,000 homes Electric and fhe I ong Island Lighting each'year and an equal numbs .ofcorn- `Company have similar progrris. In mercial and industrial systems. Industry ColOrado's San Luis Valley, where half leaders believe that theconomic recov- the population is below the poverty line, ery of 1984 boostedales, although rk C quarter of the homes have solar cal- figures, are knot yet avail,le to confirm lectors, thanks to a communityprogram their impression.30 --etat installs locally builtsystems for a' The American collect industry con- few lumdred dollars.32 sists of _about 250c panics, mostly Although most systems used to be Million sold by §mall contractors and specialty Square Meters stores, large retail chains And even door- 2.0 to-door sales staff have entered the business. Sears, Roebuck and Company now Source: markets collectors in. some stores, and plans to expand theiPavailability. Some 1.0- smaller comonies are opiningup new Lo retail outlets and distributorships each Ihnpera tire month. Extended payment plans andtax

credits ease the consumer's financial IV 0.17 Medium bnrden, making collectorsan attractive Temperature purchase.33 Large commercial and industrialsys- tems are the most rapidly growing use of solarc.ollectrs in the UnitedStates. Ho- 1974 1980 .1083 tels,laundries,fciod processors, and Figure 8-1. Solar Collector Manufacturing to the ninny othet businesses require extensive nited States, 1974.83 1 4 amounts of hot water and most have

wit

4. Harnessing Rennimble Energy (183) seen their natural gas and electricity bills are finally being combined by many soar in recent years. Large orders enable manufacturers, and this could lead to far manufacturers to gear up production _greater use of solar collectors.36 lines and minimize marketing costs. The biggest system yet was installed at the Packerland meat-packing plant inCreen Sears .Roebuck 'aid Company now Bay, Wisconsin, in 1984. It cost $30 mil -. markets solar collectors in sottje . lion and includes 10,000 square meters of solar collectors." stores. The Packerland project is a product of the "Solar Utility Program" developed by Am&ican Solar King, a Texas-based 'Costscan be further ',educed by tech- company. It is intended to assuage the nological advances. Researchers report reluctance of many firms to invest con- that although the best collectors have siderable sums ehergy projects, a i1nproyed link in the past five years, av- business with which ey are unfamiliar. erage systems -;are more efficient and last American Solar Kinagrees to sell a longer. Optical properties, thermal sta- company hot water at 20 percent less bility,and surface uniformity have all im- than the price of heating it with gas, de- proved and the real price of collectors signs and builds the collector system, has been halved since 1977. Most manu- and raises the needed capital from third- facturers have switched to the use of low- party investors. For the host company ion glass on their collectors, an im- there is virtually. no risk. The Packerland provement that boosts the transmission project alone used more than a tenth of of sunlight by 10 percent. Required test- the medium-temperature collectors ing and certification of these systems in manufactured in the United ates in many states has ended the horror stories 1984 and allowed American Sol King that accompanied some faulty early in- to quadruple-Its Manufachtring,pacity. stallations.37 This company and others believe that Advanced collector vs designsand the largely untapped commercial-indus- materials may eventually yielZI even bet- trial market has considerable poten- ter performance at i lower cost. The de- tia1.56 sign that has received the ihost attention American manufacturers have made so far is the vacuum tube solar collector, major efforts to lower costs, 'mainly by which has found limited use in. Europe, simplifying their systems. Since the early Japan, and the United States. Vacuum eighties, a growing share of the solar tube collectors are efficient and work water heaters sold in the United State well in cold weather, but they itre fragile have been simple "passive" systems, and expensive, 'and will probably be many of them exported by. Israeli and confined to specialty markets:38 Japanese comPaniek_ Some American , Plastic thin-film solar collectors may firms have obtained liaenses to manufac- be the next step in solar water heating. ture the foreign-designed collectors and First developed by Brookhaven National others have developed their own natu- Laboratories m the United States in ral-circulation systems. In Califprnia it is . 1979, the "solar sandwich" has several estimated that such systems now claim layers of plastic film suspended by light- half the solar collector market. Although weightstea-The.collectors weigh only a some cost about as much as the,typical tenth as much as metal or glass ones and active system, others are available for are Much less expensive to produce. A $1,000 or less, Low cost and reliability. New York-based company has turned

i98 ',State of theWorld-198.5 the Brookhaven design into acommer- areas must be covered with durable solar cial system that it plans to sell for $764. collectors. The steam or hot waterpro- If the performance and longevity of duced can be used directly ina district these collectors is sufficient, the result heating system or industrial complexor could be greatly expanded use' of sotaf indireetkor'to generate electricity. Be- water heating.39. e use it is often difficult to place such Although the pas4lecade has seen,un- Jr'Icilities near a big energyuser, the fat- precedented progress in solar water ter, is generally mord! practical. heating', the -enormous pothntial of this One approach is to install individual energy source has only begun} to be solarconcentrating"deviceseithet tapped. Properly designed and builtsys- parabolk troughs 9r dishesthat collect tems are clearly economical where the heat. These can be attachedto individual weather is sunny and fuel pricesare power generators or they can pipe hot high. Developing countries and thera- fluid to a circulating water system that is pidly growing sunbelt regions of Europe hooked up to a central genera,ior..Asec- and the United States mayone dayget ond technology being /developed is,a_..,- most of their hot water from the sun's solar central receiver thatuses a large energy. But solarheating does.not make array of mirrors to concentrate sunlight sense in every region, and .polieyakers on a single receiving device. The intense should Evaluate its feasibility closely be- heat turns water or some other fluid into fore promoting steam that runs a turbine. The last- ap- proach, in many ways the simplest, isa solar ponda large expanse of saline water that is carefully controlled so that the captured heat is kept at the bottom SOLAR THERMAL POWER and insulated by upper layers ofwater. The hot water can be siphoned from the GENERATION pond's lower areas to generate electricity. There are two main technologies for All three approachesdescribed in generatingelectricityfrom sunlight. some detail in this sectionare at simi- Photovoltaic cells, discussed at length in lar stages of development: Severalex- State of the World-1984, are made of sili- perimental systems are operating,test- con; they directly convert sunlight to ing is under way, and more advanced electricity. Solar thermal power tech- and larger systems are being designed nologies produce electricity in Much the ind built. (See Table 8-5.) The research way conventional coal- and oil-fired is being done in just a few areas of the plants do. They capture the sun's ,heat worldthe southwestern United States, and use it to produce steam that spinsa Australia,: the Middle East (principally turbine and a generator. Although these Israel), and southern Europebecause technologies have not been developed the, technologies work best in desertor as rapidly as photovoltaics, recent ad- yf editerranean climates with clear air , vances suggest that they have substantial Id intense sunshine. - potential:- Parabolic troughs, the first solar ther- Solar thermal power technologies are mal power technology, consist ofrectan- designed to concentrate the relatively gular, concave mirrored collectors that diffuse energy of the sun and use it to focus sunlight dnto a thin ripe running heat a quid to well above' the boiling across the collector. A fluid inside the point of water. To accomplish,this, large receiver tube, usually oil, is heated to

'9"9 Haruessin Oiewable Energy 1 t

Table 8 -5. Large Solar Thermal ystems, Operating or Marine Operating Expe c Project Location Technology Capaty Cot 1 Date (kilowatts) '(year) Solar 100 California Central Receiver .100,000 Denby Lake California Sobir Pond 48,000 1988 Luz California Trough Collector 41,800. 1986 Carissa Plain California Ceniral Receiver 30,000 e Roan California Trough Collector 15,000wr 1985 polar One California Central Receiver 10,000 1982

Mysovoye Soviet Union. Central Receiver 5,000 1983 Bet haArava tsrael Solar Pond 5,000 1984 La Jet California Dish -Receiver 5 4,500 1984 Themis France Central Receiver -2,000 1983 s CESA-1 Spain Central Receiver 1,200 1983 Stuishine Japan Central Receiver 1,000 1981 Eurelios Italy Central Receiver 1,000 1981 'Projects on hold with no definite compretion date. A SOURCE: Worldwatch Institute: based oir research reports, newsarticlel, and private communications. above the boig point of water, some- Irving, Texas, has installed a 60,000 times further eated by a fossil-fuel-fired square -foot industrial process heat sys- boiler,land t conveyed to a heat ex- tem in Arizona. The Roan CRrporation changer where water is turned to steam, has signed a contract to build a solar Since the mid-seventies, this technology trough generator that will feed 15 mega- has benefited from research funded by watts of power into the Pacific Gas & the U.S. Department of Energy. The em- Electric grid.4' phasis has been on reducing costs and The most ambitious trough project to boosting the efficiency of small expel date ,is being constructed in Daggett, mental systems. Parabolic troughs now California', by Luz Engineering, an affili- provide process heat for several Ameri- ate of an Israeli company. The power can factories. An estimatedhalf-rnilliort from the 42-megawatt system will be square feet of troughs have been in- soldto Southern C- inia Edison. stalled in the United States."' Made possible by U. x credits and , Researchers working on second- and peciatiloans from the Israeli and Japa- third-generation collectorshavere- neseqpvernments,this$60-million duced. coststo between $4,000 and plant c4#d help determine the eco- $4,500 per kilowatt. Though still more nomic vittbility of solar troUghs,47- ./ expensive tbantonventional generating Solar dish generating systeml present technologies, troughs may become an agreater technicalchallengethan econoinical source of process heat, and troughs big are more efficient. Typically, perhaps electricity, in areas now depen- each dish is about 20 feet in diameter, dent on oil. CoMpanies in Trance, the an4 its parabolically shaped, mirrored United States, and West Gerinpy are surface is designed to track the sun. A already trying .to commercialize solar thermal receiver is mounted,at the focal troughs. The Solar Kinetics Company of point of the dish. Efficiencies of over 20

2 U 0 (186) State of the War Id-1935 percent and temperatures- of well 'over power to sell to the San Diego Gas and 700 degreesFahrenheithave been Electric. Company. La Jet claimsa cost of achieved.Experimentalsystemscur- less than $4,000per kilowatt, competi- rently ust. a pipe to move a heated fluid tive with trough systems. Thenew facil- to a central generator. The heat lost'ity is one of the first large solarthermal va, from transporting the fluid is substan- power projects to be.financed by private tial, but it is hoped that eventually a heat investprs, albeit with the help ofgovern- engine- can be zittached to each dish. nienttax crtits. David Halbert of La Jet Such engines use heatto 'expand gas in expects that further cost reductions will a cylinder, thereby driving a piston and make it possible to install 200megawatts an alternator. Althoughnot yet commer- of dish systems in thenext four years.''' cialized, the high efficiency ofthis tech- The second majorway to generate nology indicates that it is worthputsu- electricity from sunlightis with solarI Mg." -- central receivers, also knownas "power Parabolic dish systems have beende- towers." A large array of independentiv veloped in Israel and the UnitedStates. tracking mirrors called heliostatsfocus Though still small and experimental, sunlight oncentral receivr. In most most have worked well. Effortsare now systems the receiver is mountedon a directed at reducing costs, whichac cord- tower that is 50-100 meters tall. Steam ihg to researchtrS at the WeizmannIn- or a hot fluid is piped from the receiver stitute in Israel should reach $200per to a heat exchanger, turbine, andgener- square meter. Use of plastic structural ator located on the ground. Solar central materials and synthetic reflectivemateri- receivers concentrate sunlight 200-lbld als such as mylar sliM.vconsiderable or more, yielding temperatures above promise. Large -scale factory' manufac- 500 degrees Celsius. But efficienciesare turing and .site-assembly of thesystems only 20-25 percent because heatis lost can also lower costs, which are pr9jected over tlje substantial distance between to fall to between $2,000 and $3,000per the heliostats and receiver.47 kilowatt,44. Solar central receivers have beena The U.S. Department of Energyhas major focus of governmentalternative supported several test facilities, includ- energy programs since the mid-seven- ing. a 25-kilowatt dish built in Rancho ties. So far,, six plants (listed in Table Mirage, California, andtwo 1D-kilowatt 8-5) have been built inas many coun- multiple-dish systems. In Sanandoah, tries, and thereare several demonstra- Georgia, 114 parabolic dishes witha cation projects in Europe. Israeli research- pacity of 400 kilowatts supply heatand ers are planning a 3,000-kilowatt central power to a knitwear factory. Other, receiver to be used in the manufactureof smaller systems have been installedin chemicals. More ambitiouseven than its PT Kuwait and M New South Wales,Aus- Mysovoye project, the Soviet Unionan- tralia. Carlo LaPorta of the SolaOnergy nounced in 1983 plans fora 300,000 - Industries Association estimates 0134 kilowatt solar central receiver backedup over 100,000 square feet of diet systems by a fossil fuel plant. Scheduledftobe had been installed in the UnitedStates built-in the southern 'Soviet republicof by the end of 1983.46 Uzbekistan, this project would dwarf all Dwarfing the projects completed thus current systems.48 -far is a 700-dish system covering320,- The. fast receiversare expensive. The 000 square feet that is being built by.La largest, the 10-megaWatt SolarOne in Jet energy Company in southertt Cali- southern California,cost the U.S. Gov- fornia. It will generate 4.5megawatts of ernment $140 million and has been the 1 Irttessing. Renewable Energy ( 187) target of critics who question whether for a l00- megawatt project called Solar

. alternative energy funds would not Ace 100. It would cost $550 million, occupy more elfectively spent on commercializ- 280 hectares (over one spiare mile), and ing smaller, simpler technologies. In produce enough power for50,000 fact, Solar One did .claim, a dispropor- [mules. Rockwell International, ARCO tionately` large share of the govern-..,,Solar Industries, and Pacific Gas and mein's. solar budget in the late seventies.s. Electric have plans for a 30-megawatt The,project represents a significant .en- system that would circulate molten so- gineering accomplishment, but analysts .ilium for greater efficiency. Both pro- are divided as to its pviential as an eco-)ects were puton hold in 1984, however, nomical power source.40 because of difficulty in attracting inves- Solar One began generating power in tors. These very large andirisky invest- 1982 and ei}tered commercial operation ments are unlikely to be made without in 1984. It has 1,800 heliostats and a solar tax credits, which the U.S. Con- 30-story tower. With computer controls gress has so far refused to extend be- designed to keep each tracking mirror at''''yOnd the end of 1985.52 an ideal angle and to monitor and regu- EAgineering studies have concluded late the generating system, the entire fa- that third-generation central receivers in cilican be run by just one person. So sunny climates4ay have costs of be- fa lant's ,performance has met or tween $2,500 and $4,000 per kilowatt. c. eeded expectations,withapeak The lower end of this range would make power output of over 12,000 kilowatts. thereceivers an economically viable By drawing on its storage system it has power source, but such projections are operated continuously for 33 hours and*highly tenuous: They depend on a more generated 74,000 kilowatt-hours ina advanced technology4that has not yet day, enough power for 4;000 homes." been demonstrated and on the assumpz Solar One's main failing isits cost: lion that heliostats will soon be mass- $14,000 per kilowatt, high even for a produced. Both the heliostat production one-of-a-kinddemonstratioqproject. facilities and the solar plants themselves Making the solar central receiver am eco- requirt investments of hundreds of mil- nomical power source will require sig- lions of dollars, large sums to devote to nificant. advances, many of which arc an uncertain technology and market." now, the fociis of engineering research. Even under- optimistic assumptions, it Heliostats are the dominant expense of will be at least a decade before economi- a central receiver system, and the tech- cal solar receiver plants can be success- nology's potential hinges largely on fully commercialized. Unlike dishes and 'whether these costs can be substantially 'troughs, receivers make sense only on a reduced. One study shows the cost fall- large scale, which creates formidable ing from $375 per square meter. to be- hurdles to their commercialization. One tween $100 and $200, but that will only iniportant advantage that central receiv- dik occur if heliostats are mass-produced on- ers do have is that the systems incorpo- a scale that is not currently planned.4' rate heat storage, so power can be-gen- Several U.S. companies have devel- erated during the early evening hours oped more-advanced.central receiver when electricity demand is often highest. designs and are .seriously considering Most of the early government demon - major efforts to commercialize the tech- strations of solar receivers have ended, nology. McDonnell Douglas, in partner- and the technology's future is largely in ship with Southern California Eclison the hands of the private market, with the and several other companies, has plans possible assistance of government tax

2 0 2 .1 (r$8) State oftheWOrld4-198- policies. Solar receiversmay find a sub- pond heats a storage bUildingnear Flag- stantial market after the turn of the, cen, staff, Arizona. But these pondscan also tury. Or they may turn out to have been generate power by conveying the hot an expensive wrong turn by government water' to a heat thgine. Although ineffi- solar energy researchers. cient compared with other solar- electric Solar ponds, the third approachto gen&rators, solar pondsare also much solar thermal pOwer generation,are the less expensive than the other technolo: simplest technology. In 1902,a Russian gigs discussed bet,e,s5 scientist discovered that naturally salty ponds often have relatively higtlzmper-. atures a meter orlwo below the surface. ,SZliir ponds can generatepower The water in such ponds tends tostrat- ify, with the relatively dense, salty layers whenever it is most needed, regard- near the bottom preventing the natural less of whether thesun is out at the convection that normally would keep the time. pond cool. Haii-y Tabor, knownirS the lather of solar energy in Israel, proposed in 1954 that artificial salt-gradient solar In theory, solarands can be built al- ponds be built for commercialenergy most anywhere-4 n4Nral one has even production. Hot water could be slowly been discovered in Antarcticabut they drawn from the bottom of ponds and willbe most feasiblein areas with used for heating, water desalination,or unused land, lots of sunlight, andnatu- electricity generation.''.' rally occurring salt,lakes, marshes, of dry Since the early seventies, researchers lake beds. Expenses can be reduced if inAustralia,Israel, and the United the. pond is on impermeable ground, Sates have conducted researchon,solar eliminating the need for, anartificial ,,ponds.By carefullycontrollingthe liner. The world's first commercial-.size 'salinity and by using chemicalsto pre- solar pond, a '150-kilowattsystem, was vent cloudiness, temperatures above the built' in 1979 at Ein Bokekon the shores boiling point of water have beenat- of the salty Dead Sea. Two additional tained. Although solar pondsare rela- ponds with a capacity of 5,000 kilowatts tively inefficient, capturing only10-20 were completed in 1984 that provide percent of the sunlight striking them, power for East Jerusalem at 10-14 per they makeup for this with their lowcost kilowatt-hour. (Again, see Table 8-5.) 1s-: and iiterent storage capability. Solar raeli researchers are confident that solar ponds bn generate power whenever it is ponds are competitive with virtuallyany most needed; regardless of whether the other power source in their fossil-fuel- sun is out at the time. The engineering short country. -Projects on the drawing a required is no more complicated than board could produce as muchas 2,000 for a large plumbing system. megawatts from solar ponds by the end Many of tyre solar ponds builtso far of the century, increasing the caintry's are intended to provide heat rather than generating capacity by 75 percent.56 power. This is the most efficient use of The United States has approximately the technology since the ponds donot a,dozen solar ponds, most of them small, reach very ,high temperatures. A -2,000- experimental projects designed to test square-meter pond built in 197§ in Mia- the technology or to heat greenhouses misburg, Ohio, provides heat fora mu- or hog barns. The best natural locations nieipal swimming pool and recreation1-vare near the Great Salt Lake in Utah arid building.And an800-square-meter ( 'the Salton Sea in California. A study Hamming Renewable Energy (189) funded by the Department of Energy in thermal power plants arc land-intensive, the late seventies found thata. 600 - requiring six to eight acres per .mega- kilowatt solar pond near the Salton Sea watt. Although this is only a small con- was feasible. Although the U.S. Govern- straint in the desert regions where solar ment has not pursued this, the Israeli thermal power is most feasible, these company designing the Dead Sea project systems also need lots of water, a major has. begun working on a 48-megawatt limitation. Parabolic dishes and solar solar pond near the Salton Sea. South: ponds vpear to have the most promise, ern California Edison has agreed to pur- largely fiecause they are small technolo- chase the powermainly at times ofgies that can be built rapidly and in peak demand. The Israeli company is stages and are already being commer- alsoconsideringalargeprojectin cialized." Utah.* Australia has been researching soar ponds since the sixties.but only has a few small ones in operation. The most notable is a 2,000-square-meter project near ALCOII01, FUELS Alice Springs. a' remote area where energy costs are high. It produces 20 kilo- A replacement for the last quantities of watts of electricity. Other countries with petroleum that run the world's motor experimental solar ponds include Brazil, vehicles has been one of the frost elusive India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The goals of researchers and energy plan- .. success or failure of the-large projects in ners. From oil shale to propane, from Israel and the United States is likely to hydrogen to jojoba oil, the list of alterna- influence the speed_.4th which other tivi; couldfilla chemist's textbook. countries proceed.587,.. Among the various options, alcohol A study by Frost & a consult- fuels derived from biological materials ing firm in the United States, projects show the most promise. Although little that worldwide solar-pond epittrating ethanol (ethyl alcohol) was used as a fuel capacity yvill reach 400 megawatts in in 1974, over 70- million barrels were 0000 and 3,500 megawatts by 2010. burned in automobiles in 1984. And in Even with this rapidowth.is.unlikely Brazilsepianol now accounts for 43 per- that solar ponds wprovidepower in cent of automotive fuel consumption. more than a few local nis by the end of Althongh no other,country comes close the century; In most areas,. low-cost to this, alcohol-fuel use is growing in at land, water, and are not available, least a dozen nations, with everything and other solar energy technologies will from corn tO:, sugar beets and cheese A probably be more feasible." whey being used as a feedNtock. Alcohol Solar thermal pOwer techriplogies .are is likely to play a significant role in pow- evolving too rapidly to make-firm predic- eringthevtorld's automobileswith tions. Based on the cost estimates note major implications for national cnergy available it seems likely that some form balances, employment, income distribu- of solar Thermal electric generation will tion,, and food .availability. become common in sunny regions by the Alcohol actually predates gasoline as end of the century. Frost & Sullivan' pro- an autOmotive fuel. The first internal - jects that the solar thermal technologies combustion engineburned puce ethanol other than ponds will provide 1,200 and Henry. Ford designed Phis engines to megawatts of power in the year 2000 and run on either gasoline or ethanol by sim- 10,000. megawatts by 2010. But solar ply adjusting the carbureto. In France,

204 r (190) State of the World 4'65 .gasoline and alcohol were used abTt anment keeps the latter at less than equally at the turn of the century. From $1.50 per gallon, 'comparetvitli $2.40 World War..I through the thirties, al-. for gasoline.Over300 disc have coholiaowered cars were 'common in been built and' another 100' are wailer Australia,Brazil, Cuba, and various construction. The program relies largely European countries, thanks in part to on domestic technology and financing, the influence of farmers who sought to but Loans from abroad, including $250 assure markets for their crops." million from the World Moak, have pro- vieled support. So far, the government has spent. $4.5 billion on the Proalcool In Brazil, ethanol now accounts for.prognint.63 \ 43 percent of automotive fuelcon- Ins1979 Brazil'sautomobileautomotlile manufacT sumption. turers signed an agreement with the government that required them to build cars designed to run on pure alcohol. (Such cars are exempt from the country's val- Alcohol producti6n is a relativesim- ple process. Sugars. are fermcnte using ue-added cal.) Almost three quarters of the cars,' gee in 1983 run on pure alco- the enzymes produced by a kind of yeast, hol, and therkrare now over 1.2 million and .theresultisa combing ion of ethanol, water, and marketable carbon such cars'out of a total fleet of 10 million. 1 ' dioxide gas: Sugarcane, sugar beets, and (See Table 8-1i.) The other 9 million at- sorghum are direct sources- of the neces- tomobilesusea gasohol mixture that is sartraugars. Using -a more complicated 23 percent ethanol." -, i process,_ starches from corn-, and other produced 57 million barrels of ns or from cassava, a root crop,s-ean holhol fuel in 1984up from 2 million- lir converted to .sugars and er- Is in 1976. (See Table 8-7.) This meiled.* (ions program, to. gether with recent Irk dip tnid-seventies, .Brazil launched oil 'discoveries, has helped Brazil cut its the world's most aibbitioui effort to re- oil imports in half since ,1978. The coun- duce dependence on imported petro- try plans to triple production of alcohol leum. The country is a major sugar ex- fuel by .1993, which combined withrsuc- porterandethanolderivedfrom cesrs in oil exploration might allow sugarcane is viewed as a way to reduce Brazil to retch its goal of importing no oil imports and prop 'hp sugar prices, oil for cars by the early nineti6.65 both helpful in reducing the country's No program of this size is without $90-billion foreign debt. Beginning in costs. Competition between food and 1975 the Brazilian Government's Proal- cool program offered incentives for al- Table 8.6, Brazil: Sales of 'Grotto! and cohol-fuel production. Since the country Alcohol Vehicles, 1980-83 had excess distillery capacity and a long history of gasohol use, the new fuel Year GaSohol VehiclesAlcohol Vehicles caught on almost immediptely.62 1980 775,000 241,000 The Brazilian Government has gradu- 1981 496,000 137,000 ally. raised its commitment to alcohol 1982 452,000 234,000 fuels, providing low-interest loans, for 1983 212,000 590,000 example, to industrialists who build new SOURCE: Howard Geller, "Ethanol from Sugarcane sugar an*distilleries. By heavily in Brazil, "in Annual Revie.w3, 1110, Annual Review taxing gasoline gut not ethanol, the goy- of Energy, Vol. 10 Wald' Alto, Calif.: forthcoming), . Harnessing Renewable Eitifgy .191)

Table 8-7. Alcohol-Fuel Production and Use, Brazil and the Vnited States, 197 4 United S6tes Brazil Share of Share of Yeor,, .Production -Use Auto. Fuel Production Use AM() litter (million barrels) (percent) (million barrels) (percent) 1976 2.0 1.1 1.0 ask 1977 6.2 4.0 3.8 -1978 0.3 0.6 0.02 12.5 95 8.4 1979 0.5 l t2 0.05 19.6 14.1 12.2 1980 0.9 1.9 0.08 16.9 16.3 1981 1.8 2.0 0.09 23-.9 16.0 16.1 1982 5.0 !rk.5 0.24.. 23.3 22.5 1983 8.9 10.3 0.45 47.7 39.0 35.7 19841 10.0 12.0 0.52 57.2 47.0 43.0- 'Estimated. sotiRcir.: Wokidwatch Institute, based on unpublishedto from Information Resources Inc., Washington. D.C., 1984. fuel.crops is of particular concern since satedarray- of government subsidies sugarcane is being grown on some of the ads mot(Irists to fill up with ethanol. country's richest farmland. A hectare of t an anasis by Howard Geller of the land that feeds five people if used for rice Am rican--ecrtincilforanEnergy- cultivation yields only enough sugarcane Efficient Economy shir,vs that the extra to run one automobile. Attempts are interest payments on the country's debt being made to encourage the planting of that result from importing petroleum in sugarcaneonmarginalland,but effect cancel out oil's cost advantage. whether they will be effective given the And Geller: believes that the cost of pro- political power of wealthy sugar growers ducing ethanol is no higher than that of is uncertain. The acreage devoted to domestic oil exploration, extraction, and subsidized export crops-soybeans used refining...Moreover, the alcohol-fuel pro- as livestock feed in Europe as well as gram-has (die important secondary effect , sugar-is growing rapidly. ,Brazil is los- of stimulating industrial 'development, ing the small farms that supply local veg- Sugarcane cultivation and alcohol pro- etable and dairy markets. Many of these duction are labor-intensive, and about a farmers are being forced to move to the half-million new full-time jobs have been marginal soils of the newly cleared Arna- created.67 .zon Basin. Bruit has millions of poor In recent years smaller alcohol-fuel people with little chance of competing programs have sprung up around the with subsidized crops, intheir daily world, roughly tracing the tropical sug,,

A struggleforfood.Theresulting arcane belt. Latin American countries inequalities and hardship could well out- with programs that should be able to weigh the economic benefits of the alco- produce Sizable quantities in the fliture hol program." include CostaRica,Cuba,Mexico, A barrel of gasoline refined domesti- Nicaragua, Paraguay, and several Carib- cally from imported crude oilcosts bean islands. Cuba is the leading pro- about $41, in Brazil, whereas alcohol dUcer outside Brazil, with the capacity costs $50-55'per barrel. Only a comph- to produce over three million barrels P

(9 2 ) State of theWorld-1985

of ethanol each year." (*bunnies arc of necessity far different 1 ;Zimbabweisanother major sugar'fromthose in the tropics. Btmse sugar- g'owerthat has Begun using some of its cane cannot be grown there, other feed- cane for alcohol prodtktion. One facility stocks and productitn processes must be pow produces_ 00,000 barrels per year used. To date, common grain crops Nave not much by world standairds, but been ti4e most popular temperate-zone enough to supply. 12-15 percent of the feedstocks. Ninety-five percent of U.S. country's automotive fuel and reduce alcohol fuel comes from Corn, for exam- the oil import bill. Additional plants are ple, and the rest from a mixture of being bnilt. Kenya also has a cane-based wheat, barley, ottu4 grains, and agricul alcoholtfuel plant that uses a Brazilian tural ivastes. The carbohydr!tte or starch

*sign and was . financed by European from the grains is heated until it breaks aid agencies. The Mehta plant produces down into simpler sugars. Research into 138,000 barrels of alcohol per year, but more-efficient and cheaper ways to pro- because it is expensive and unreliable, duce/ethanol arc being undertaken in the government has delayed plans for ma.* grain- producing countries such as additional plants. The World Bank is Argentina, Australia, and France." funding an alcohol-fitel facility in Mali In the United States, the use of alcohol and considering one in Zambia, Major fuel has grown rapidly since the first gov- reliance On alcohol Inds in Africa is not ernment incentives were enactedin likely in the near (inure, however. The 1979. Gasohol Is now exempt from the continent's massive food deficits and 5v-per-gallon federal gasoline tax and economic problems make it doubdid from similar levies in ever 30 states. In 1 that land and financial resources should addition, the U.S. Department &Energy be devoted' to fuel production.69 and several state Departments of Energy SeveralAsian -countriesincluding ttid Agriculture have loan guarantee and China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia cost-sharing programs to encoufage the have substantial sugarcane crops that building of alcohol-production. facilities. could be distilled into alcohol fuel. n- .Based on average corn prices and the donesia has two small operating plants,., sale of the residues for livestock feed, and the Philippines and Sri Lanka are ethanol is now produced at a wholesale producipg limited amounts of fuel in cost of $1.30 per gallon, compared with pilot facilities. Although alcohol-fuel use 94c713er gallon for high-octane unleaded is likely to expand somewhat in develop- gasoline.72 ing countries, manyonce-ambitious pro- Ethanol productionin(heUnited grams have been put on hold in the past States rose from 900,000 barrels in 1980 few yearso due to financial difficulties. t.6 0 million. in 1984. (See Table 8-8.) Major efforts to imitate the Brazilian Although the goal set by Congress of 48 program would be difficult and possibly million barrels by 1985 will not be met, counterproductive. Most countries lack production has increased more than stifficient fertile flind to expand cane fivefoldsince, 1981. Today approxi- production greatly without cuWng into mately. 5 percent of the "gasoline" rid food supplies. Efforts to cultivate cas- inthe country isactually a 14 TM sava and other tropical plantsewhich can ethanol-gasoline blend. In Indiana -And be. grown by small holders on Marginal some other farm states, an estimated one lands, are essentiaf if alcohol fuel is to third of the fuel sold is part alcohol. make a significant contribution in most Whereas in '1980 the "gasohol" label of the Third.World.79 was proudly displayed as a show of inde- Alcohol-fuel programs in temperate pendence from imported oil, most gas°- .

207 liarnessmg-' Renruoble Energy (z93) hol is now marketed as a hiih-octaneuti- corn tis feedstock and wood, pellets as leaded filet that improves engine per- fuel to produce alcohol for upstate New forinance. Demand has outstrippell sup- York fuel bleaders.74 ply, and ethanol imported from Brazil 'The prospects for alcoldd fuels were J serves 15 percent of the American mar- enhanced in .1984- when the U.S. Envi- ket despite steepimportauties- ronmental Protection Agency (EPA) 60v per gallon." proposed the virtual efirradation of lead By mid-1984 there were about 150 from gasoline by 1986. Lead has -been a major ethanol plants in operation, many conimon additive for decaAestecause it smaller on-farm plants, and -dozens, of inexpensively raises octane and makes others being planned or built. Dominat gasoline burn more evenly in high-coming the industry is Archer-Daniels -Midi pression engines. Although American land, one of the world's largest gram cats have been designed to run on un- companies,but Manysmall cT'Otre- leaded' fuelsincethe mid-seventies, preneurial firms are entering the busi- many motorists have dismantled their ness. One is the Ultrasystems Company, cars' anti-pollution devices and continue which is building the Dawn-Enterprises to purchase leaded gas. EPA has decided alcohol plant in North Dakota, sched- that a further crackdown is " essential in uled for completion in 1985. Located in order to protect public health. StiNkes a rich barley-growing region close to show that ethanol added at the refinery abundant supplies of cheap lignite coal; isnot only the cheapest alternative the plant is designed to minimize the.two means bf boosting octane, it is a way to dominant costs of alcohol production-= raise the overall efficiency of the refi- feedstock and fuel. The facility will pro- nery; It is difficult to know how the refin- duce 741,000 barrel's ofalcohol each year ing industry will respond to the new as well as distillers' grain to be sold to standards, but demand for ethanol will liveStock operations and carbon dioxide' probably rise and bid up prices,. leading to the carbonated beverage industily. A to new distillery construction. A Wash- smaller, .3,000-barel plant in Califor- ington,. D.C., consultirig firm projects. nia's Central Valley uses waste. from a that annual ethanol use will reach 120 cheese factory to produce ethanol and million barrels by the dincties, over 10 animal feed. Another in Vermont uses times the 1984 level. Lialf of U.S. automobile k could be running on alcohol _Table 8 -8. United Stately Production of blends," Alcohol fliel FrOm Corn, 1980-84 The U.S. alcohol-fuel industr'y has Alcohol been criticized on a variety tof grounds, Area Fuel , including its net energy efficiency and its Year Corn Used in Corn Pro8uced impact on wo d food prices. Histori- cally, disti eries have relied on natural (million . (thousand (million gas as a fu I:Combining this energy re- bushels)hectares) barrels) quirement % ith the fuel used to cultivate -

1980 c 15 . 57 0.9 corn led some analysts to conclude that 1981 35 134 1.8 the ethanol energyeyield is less than the 1982 80 308 5.0 energy input. An authoritative 1982 U.S. 1983 .135 518 8.9 Department of jAgriculture study largely 1984 160 615 10.0 laid these _fears to rest, however, by souliczs: Worldwatch Institute estimates based on showing a-net energy yield of 1:5 to 1 for unpublished data from U.S. Department of Agri- recently completed ethanol plants using culture. modern technology. Moreover, most of

2 0.8 . . C.19.1) .Sink of the World---.19855. these new facilities are ftieled coal, yield in 1995 would be i00 million bar- lignite,or woodless-valuable .filels rels of vthailol, which is a quarter of cur- thhrt the ethanol that is produced. ktkt rent annual gasoline use." Although it is current fuel prices there ta ample incen- doubtful that land and water resources tive- to maximize the energy yield."' are sufficient to allow such a drastic shift, AS, in Brazil, the farm 'sector in the rising petroleum costs should quite nat. United States .is a strong proponent of wally lead to eftbas to maximize the en- alcohol fuels, Viewing them as a way of ergy as well as the food yield of the

boosting demand for corn and other world's cropland, . grains and thus keeping Prices high. The Qtcsearchers have only begun to ex- alcohol producedin1984required plorc, the potential, of currentlyun- about 160 million bushels of corn-2 derused crops as feedstocks, but .many percent of the country's crop. Although appear tot .have highel alcohol yields not enough to affect food prices signifir than those now used. The jerunlem arti- cantly, that will not be true for long choke is one promising possibility. This given the rate of expansion. Major U.S. perennial grows in awide range of soils reliance on alcohol fuel derived from and climates 'and produces sugars that, food grains would almost certainly have can be used directly for alcohol ,produc- 4an impact on, the World grain market, in tion. It yields filmost twice as ranch .4 which the United States is the dominant hol per hectare as ,corn, but because the exporter. Diverting the entire U.S. corn jerusalem artichoke has been of little crop (30 percent of the world total) to commercial importance in the past; it alcohol production would fuel just one will take time 'for itto be widely ad- fourth of the nation's cars. Heavy tivated.Sweet sorghum and sudan ante on alcohol fuel will only be possible grasses are temperate-zone crops that if much of the feed value of the cropscan produce sugars that can be used for alco- s be retained in the residue left after alcohol 'production. Potatoes are prolific hol production and.if new crops and ag- producers of carbohydrates and could ricultural wastes are able to play an im- become a fuel crop. And renewed inter- portant role.77 est in alcohol fuel coincides ,.with the emergeirice of biotechnology, which may help develop new crop varieties more Mttor U.S. reliance on alcohol fuel suited to 'alcohol production." derived from food grains would al- Wood, grasses, and other cellulose- most certainly have an impact on based materials art abundant and Bail be itgrown on much lessfertile or well- the world grain market. watered land than most food crops. Cel- lulose, like carbohydrates, can be broken down. into simple sugars for distillation A study by the Center for the Biology into ethanol, but the cellulosic bonds are of Natural Systems concludes that a shift far stronger and cannot be dissolved by from the corn-soybean crop rivix now simple heating. Acid hydrolysis and en- typical in the U.S. Midwest to a corn- zyrriatic hydro ysis are the two chemical . sugar beet mix would allow farmers to processes that researchers believe have produce as 'much high- protein animal the most promise- as cellulose convert- feed. as before and also provide feeders, and each is being investigated. The stock for alcohol production. The C.eri-. Soviet Union has 40 acid hydrolysis I. ter estimates that if this scheme were plants using wood feedstock, and Brazil adopted throughout the Midwest, the is applying the same technology tocon- Hartiessnig Relitowable Energy (195) vert eucalyptus wood into lignin - -used U.S. Offiee of Technology, Assessment for coke productionand,sugars. Other estimatesthatwood. costirig $30 a-ton countrieg conducting resonrch on this can be converted to methanol for $ IM) sipproacR include France, .Japan, New a gallon. Given the fuel's low energy Zealand, and the United States. Ed-'' content, this is far too expensive to make zywnisic hydrolysis, a biochemical proit competitive, but researchers in Brazil, cess-, is.more problematic; it is being re- Canada, France, New Zealand,. Norway, searched extensively in the United States the Philippines, and elsewhere are tyork- and Canada and may soon be pilot Mg to lower production costs. Scientists testetts° at the U.S. Solar F.nergritesearch Insti- Also important is finding ways to pro- . . tutehave developed a gasifier that can- duce alcohol fuel using waste materials. dduble the'methanol yield from wood, Farmi, food processos, and miThicipitl_ and Brazilian researchers report similar dumps are good feedstock sources, but results. These more advanced processes finding the right materials and separat-\have not yet been proved in Commercial- ing them from other wastes is often diffi- stzed plants." cult. In the past several years small U.S. Some limited use of methanol fuel has distilleries have been set up using al- begun. About 100 million gallons are mond hulls, cheese whey, spoiled food, used in U.S. automobiles each year. The and even discarded jelly beans. Another ARCO Oil Company sells a blended gas- _avenue worth pursuing is the produCtion oline with 5 percent me mita The fuel of ethanol from algae,a one-celled has a high octane valuetit some people aquatic organism. Several biotechnology say their cars do not run well on it. In the companies working on new algae strains long run, engine modifications will be and production techniques claim to be re4uiredO allow automobiles torun on near ccInmercialization. In one interest- fuel containing more than 10 percent ing dovetailing of renewable technolo- methano1.84 gies, a California firm plans to,use waste The CalifdEnia Energy Commission, heat from a- solar electric generator- to in conjunction with the Ford Motor warm its algae distillery.81 Company, has developed a fleet of 50() Another :alcoholmethanolcan be .methanol-fueled cars that are used by 6 produced Itom wood and other cel- state agencies and 15 local governments. lulosic materials and appears to have The autos have performed well so far, substantial ,potential as an automotive and testing by the Environmental Pro- fuel.Engihesmust. be substantially tection Agency shows impressively low modified 0> use this fuel, since it cor---emissions of nitrogen Oxides and hydro- rodes son* materials, but in the right carbons. Engines running on this fuel do, cars, methanol is clean-burning and effi- emit formaldehyde and unburned me- cient. Though. possessing only about thanol,' but not in quantities that appear 'half the ,energy value of gasoline, me- to present health hazards. Brazil and thanol's high oxygen content allows it to Norway have also successftilly tested me, be but:lied more efficiently. Methanol lhanokfueled automobiles. BM none of can also'be produced from natural gas these cars has yet been optimized for anal coil, making it ,perhaps the most methanol use, and researchers believe versatile liquid filet being examined." that improvements in fuel efficiency and Methanol' is produced, by gasifyipg pollutant reductions are possible. The dried wood and then. converting U.S.: Solar Encrgy Research Institute has thane to methanol using a catalyst. This developed an engine that converts me- is a well-established technology, and the thanol toshydrogyn and carbon monox- s (796) State opthe. World1985 ide before burning it, giving antliciericy anon, v,rid greater reliane..on renew.' of 30 miles per gallonclose to the filet able fuels. economy of gasoline despite methimors 1 lower energy content.8° Methanol's advantages make it a likely automotive fuel in many parts of the world, but its future as a "renewable'1 OTHER RENEWABLE ENERGY fuel is more dubious. FOrthe foreseeable future it alVears that natural gas HIGHLIGHTS , and coal will be less expensive methanol The atNelerated development of#renew- feedstocks than wood and, otter biomass able energy -sour materials. For many Oil-producing ;_titered its second coun- decade in1.984.G tries that are currently flaringor rein -- rnment support of ,jecting large quantities of natural gas for renerable eneigy haseeled off in most which they have no markets, the export countries.,; but the sir* in private in- of methanol fuel would be logical. And vestinent described in State of Olt-World- methanol. may be the most economical 1984 continues:. Commercial develop-, synthetic fuel for countries withyast (761 ment of wind power and worid-firM reserves. Only those that lack inexpen- mower plants. in particular isfar exceed- sive coal and natural gas are likely to ing earlier expectations. It is important turn to biomass for methanol produc- to look beyond the foirr technologies tion, - discuSsed in 'detail in this chapter in order to grasp renewable energy's grow- Alcohol -fuel use will probably grow . substantially.Four the United States ing contribution. .. '. alone, 'Cohn A. Houston & Associates of Worldwide geothermal generating ca- New Jersey forecasts a fivefold' increase pacityreachedapproxiMately. 3,40Q by 1995, with ethanol use going from 2 megawatts at the beginning 01'4984, up billion to 9 billion gallons and methanol. more than 20 percent frcima)/Or ear- from 0.2 billion t.o 1.8 billion gallons.86 lier. The United States continues, ioel.us These projections can be considered the most geothermal energy, largely. at conservative, particularly in light of tax the 1,300-megawatt Geysers projecGiU.,. incentives and more-stringent lead stan- northern California. In the PhilippitieS, dards for gasoline. geothermalgeneratingcapacityhas,. But -alcohol fuels will by no means passed 800 megawatts and is scheduled., solve the world's liquid fuel problems. to reach 1,700 megawatts by the end-of Cars currently burn about '20 million 1985meeting 18 percent of the coun- barrels krif gasoline each day; making a try's electricity needs. In Mexico, geo- large dent in that figure will not beeasy. thermal capacity expanded in 1984 from Improved automobile fuel efficiency is 205 megawatw to 64,5 megawatts. Ac- without doubt the most economical way cording to ge\othermal analyst- Ronald to reduce gasOline consumption. Brazil, DiPippo of Southeastern Massachusetts for example, ciould now almost eliminate University, worldwide. geothermal ca- gasoline use in automobiles by doubting pacity will reach 5,800 megawatts by the the efficiency of its carsat a far lower end of 1985, and will exceed 10,000 cost than it would take to double al- megawatts before 1990. In some areas, cohol-fuel pro luction. In the long run, a such as Centrhl America and Indonesia, sustainable tra import system will involve, geothermal resources will be a principal. a combination of more-efficient auto- source of energy.87 mobiles, imp ved 'publictransport- The use of wood fuel and other bin- . 1 T\

,.. 1 14,1)essing Rettetvable,4 Ltref' (197) mass by itiduktry, electric utilities, and credits, many companies retrenched in didtrict heatieg systems has expAnded 1984. The twolargestcompanies, dramatically in the past few years. In the ARCO Solar and Solarex, laid off 70 and United States alone.; over 100 biomass- 140workers,respectively,trimming fueled-power projects have barn started their marketing efforts more than their since 1981, representing a generating R&D programs.1,he-japanese photovol- capacity of 1,800 megawatts. The proj- taics industry, in contrast, has shown rk- ects are spread throughout the country. ruarkable strength And appears ready to Although wood Cud has long been an surpass the Americarpgindustry within a important energy -source for the forest few year. The Kyocera Company has set products industry, most of the recent up offices and assembly facilities on the projects- were Undertaken by indepen- .U.S. West Coast, part of an aggressive dent,energy producers: The Philippines marketing effort; The floian Company has built 17 wood-fired power plants and is building a_9-megaNiratt manufacturing plans to have 60 by 1990. Meanwhile; plantthe world's largest.7-and plans to Sweden plans to use wood fuel for dis- sell the resulting modules at about half trict heating in many of its cities. Munici- the current price." pal, industrial,' and agricultural wastes Wind power is perhaps the world's are also serving as feedstocks for at least- most rapidly developing new energy a score of recently begun small genera- source, and growth is centered in Cali- ting plants in the United States." fbrnia. The state's wind firm boom con- Solar electric generation using photo- tinued .strongly in 1984, with close to voltaics continues' to advance, though 4,700 newturbinesinstalled.'This not at the same pace as a few years ago. brought the total capacity. to 609 mega- The manufacture of solar cells grew watts, almost triple the figure at the end about 20 percent in 1984, reaching 26 of 1%3. (See Table 8-9.) Wiwi farms megawattsof peak-powercapacity. provided California utilities with $20- Large generating plants continue to be million worth of electri'city in 1984 installed and are the most dynamic as- endigh for 40,000 ,homes. Total invest- pect of photovoltaics development. The ment in this field amounted to almost Sacramento Municipal Utility District in $700 million." California has completed the first mega-. Thefirstwindfarmshave been watt Of an eventual 100-megawatt photo- plagued by frequent mechanical failures, voltaic system. ARCO Solar has finished leaving large numbers of machines idle .a 6.5-megawatt project, currently the in windy weather. But most wind farmers world's largest, that provides enough appeared to be putting these problems power for 2,000 homes. The United En- behind them in 1984, as redesigned and ergy Corporation will complete two 8- rebuilt wind machines were installed and megawatt photiivoltaic project/5 in Cali, operated more reliably. The economics. fornia in 1985, and Austin, Texas, will of wind power are also improving. The build a 300-kilowatt generator, the first cost per kilowatt has fallen by almost half to be financed by a utility," in the past three years and is now less The U.S. photovoltaics industry is still than $1,900 per kilowatt. Although wind weak financially. Earnings do not cover farms still depend on tax credits, they research and development budgets, and are likely to be economical without this most companies lose money an es- suppprt within a few years." timated $50 million industry-wide in TieCalifornia Energy Commission 1983. Faced with limited sales growth estimates that the good wind sitei in the and the prospect of soon losing solar tax state Can harness up to 13,000 mega- S 4

.1.-(.198) St lof the World-198, Table 8.9. California: Wind Farms, 1981-84

. Machine:is Capacity Average Average 'Power Year Installed Installed 4- Capacity. Cost Generated" (number) (megawatts) (kilowatts) (dollats per kilow,att kilowatt) .hours) 1981 144 7 49 3,100 1982 4 1,145 '64 56 2,175 6- 1983 2,493 1 69 vr 1,960 74 19841- 4.687 .366 78 1,870 250

Total 8,469 .609 72 330 "Most wind machines are installed in the last half of a given year and do not produce substantialpower until the next year,xPrehminary estimate. swam Mike -Batham, California Energy Commission, private cominunication, December I I, 1084.

watts of power. Wall this land were de- tionalsourcessince .1979 and has veloped, the state would get roughly-- reached about 10 percent of the national twice as much energy from the wind as energy budget. Nuclear power, in con- from nuclear power. Wind farms will trast,, provide 15 percent. Yet the U.S. 'also have an effect,on land use. Prirri Department of Energy ignores or un- sites in San Gorgonio Pass produce be- derestimates renewable energy in most tween $12,000 and $15,000 of electricity of its statistical reports.95 per acre in addition to the $20-30 the land earns for cattle grazing. (Prime midwestern farmland planted in corn, bxi, Prime sites produce between $12,- comparison, yields up to $400 per acre 000 and $15,000 ok electricity per per year)" acre in addition to the $20-30 the Although over 90 percent of the U.S. wind farms are in California, the tech- land earns for cattle feitizing. nology is spreading rapidly. Commercial farms have been installed in Hawaii, Montana, New York, and OregortOnter- Most striking is the growing contribu- nationally, Denmark, the Netherlands, tion of renewable energy to electricity and Sweden are now planning wind generation in the United States. Exclud- farms, aird several other countries have ing large hydropower, almost 5,000- major research programs. Wind farms megawatts worth of renewable electric- are also being considered in some devel- ityprojects have been started since oping Countries, particularly islands and 1980, while coal and nuclear plant can- coastal areas in the trade wind belt. cellations outstripped new Orders by a Some developers see California as little substantial margih. California, where more than a proving ground before they Most of the new projects aregipncen- tap the Third World market.94 trated, is likely to get one quariii..of its Renewable energy sources are ex- el7ti-lcity from renewable* within five panding far faster than most energy years." policymakersrealize,Inthe United If there is one lesson to emerge froin States, for example, renewable energy a decade of development, itisthat growth has outpaced that of conven- effortsto make long-range forecasts 1)- re

Harnessing Renewable Energy (099) about such rapidly evolving technolo- ergy technologies in advance and in- gies are pointless. Solar central receivers steN create a level playinl field on have languiAed despite hundred-mil- renewableandconventionalr lion-dollar development programs and sources' can compete economically. Al- the6est efforts of engineers. Wind farms though the exact pattern of future devel- relying on small wind machines have opment is unclear, improved efficiency surpassed the projections Oran plan- *and renewable energy appear ready td ners, as has the use of wood fuel. Per- form the foundation Of- a More sustain- haps the best thing that government able and less environmentally disruptive planner's cRuld do would be to stop try- energy system at the turn of the century. ing to pick the most 6rbmising new en- 1+.

p 4"

0.4

14 9 1' St4ing Population Growth Lester R. Brown

Tfie world of the mid-eighties is a world of agendas. of national governments and- of stark demographic contrasts. Varia- international development agencies. In tions in fertility among countries have tiT President's,foreword to the World De- never been wider. Some populations vetopmentve Report 1984, the first' of the change little in size from year to year or World Bank's annual reports to high- decline slightly while others are ex- light this issue, Ai W. Clausen observes periencing the fastest growthever re- that '3opulationkrowth does not pro- corded, The populations of West Ger- vide* the drama of flancial crisisor polit- many and Hungary are slowly declining ical upheaval but its significance for insize, for example, while those of shaping the world of our children and Kenya and Syria are doubling in less than 20 years grandchildren is at least as great,"2 These disparities are placing great stress oh the international economic system and on national political strictures. Runaway population growth is inclirectl fueling the debt crisis by increasing the FROM BUCHAREST T need for imported food and other basic MEXICCi CelrY commodities. Low-fertility countries are food aid donors: high-fertility cimnoies, In the late summer of 1984, worl atten- the recipients, Nations with low fertility tion focused on this pressing pro lem as are invariably the lenders; those with the U.N. International Confe nce on high fertility, the borrowers. In most Poptilatidn convened in -Meo City. countries with high fertility, food pro-. The occasion was the tenth an iversary duction per person is either stagnant or of the U.N.'s first World Population declining. Conference, which had been held in Bu- Population policy is moving to the top charest. The official purpose of the Mex- String-Population Grow (201)1

iao City Conference, in which 1 9 cog . drolo les< In -most uses fool tries participate as, e N s etc arger than they shad been worKpopulation planf iiction.aloptecl in J9 the I.N.'s World Fpod ucharest. The coram in the moods Confrence, held in ne in 1974 on of the two gatherings could not 4iave the hs. of the pqpulation meeting, . een great most~ T r l World was having .. In Buc . rest, there had beea wide di fj-i lty Fxpa ding food ploduc,sion political schism etweed the repsenta- fag-. enoughtt i improve dills. More lives of ind 'a countries, who ushed countries were facing famine in 1984 '- for an increase "in Third Worldtinily than 10 years earlier. planning efforts; and those from vet- In Africa there had' beer( a marked °ping countries, whose leaders ared change, in attitudes toward family plan- that social 'and economit progressas ning, much ILf it occurring in the early the keyHt6 slowing population growth. eighties. The "frightening arithmetic", The debate had been sustained and of population growth became a cliche in sometimes vitriolic. "Development is the African capitals. It was :in the best Contraceptive': became the rallying economic planning commissions Cry of many Third World representa- the population threat surfacedinost tives. clearly. For.many planners struggling to In Mexico City this division had virtu- improve living conditions, -keepingup ally disappeared and the moodwas with record rates of population growth Much more somber. The Mexican capi- was a losing battle. Falling per capita tal itself wasri all-too-graphic reminder food production was now the rule, not of the cons ences of failing to stem the exception. populationrowth. The influA of rural The notion that development would jobless in search of work had pushed the lower fertility in developing countries, as city's population to the bursting point.r. it had in the industrial ones, was of little Crowded, c ngested, and polluted, the comfort to most Third World leaders. city provid d visible daily evidence of EconoMic and social gains brought pop- populatiostresses. A new tone of ur- ulation growth to a near standstill over gency could be heard in Mexico City. No t centuries in Europe, but no country longer was it a matter of whether there triere ever faced population increases of was a need to slow population growth. 3 percent per year, which yields a twen- The question was how: Which con- tyfold increase per century. It wasnow traceptives were most effective and how clear to many in the developing world could they be'delivered to people who that they had perhaps two generations to needed them? And further, howcan halt population growth. And thatone smaller families be encouraged? generation had already passed. Many things have happened since Bu- The economic development thatwas charest to foster this 'change in attitude. supposed to serve as a contraceptivewas The costly consequences of continuing not occurring as projected. Incomes rapid. populationgrowth , thathad were falling in most of Africa and Latin seemed so theoretical in the 1974 debate America during the eighties. In their were becoming increasingly real for efforts to maintain the economic growth many. Few developing countries at the of the pre-1973 period, scores of Third Mexico City gathering were not ex- World countries went deeply into debt. periencing a deterioration of their for- For most it was a tragic mistake. Several, ests, their soils, and their grasslands, as including Nigeria, Pet'u, and the Philip- well as 'a wholesale alteration of their hy- pines, found that over half their export

0 21 6 (202) State of the 1,14/d /985 earnings disappeared to service their also, indirectly emphasized the difficulty outstanding loan-ii..And.. the social of quickly slowing population growth by provements that were to drive the demo- relying solely on basic economic and so- graphic transition had been replaced by cial changes.4 social disintegration in several coun- Awarenessthatrapidpopulation tries. For national delstgat ions in Mexico growth is a threat to improvements in. City who were faced with. debt-induced the Ifriman condition is now widespread. domestic austerity programs, the slogan-At Mexico City, at times the only dissent- "development is the best contraceptive- ing voice was that of the United States. ,had a hollow ring indeed. Speaking from a position paper that was more ideological than analytical in content, members of the U.S. delegation ar- Third Worldleadersare now gued that population growth was a neu- speaking out on the urgency of tral_ phenomenon and that the key to slowing, the growth in numbers was slowing population growth. deregulation and the. unleashing of market forces. In the framework of a free enterprise system, they claimed, such Another source- of the changed atti- forces would solvj the problem. Some- tudesaboutcontrollingpopulation what paradoxically, the United States growth wase recent introduction of also pledged continuing support for active government programs to do so. At family planning. Those preparing the the time of Bucharest, several develop- statement appe rently overlooked ing countries had adopted the two-child China's success in bringing down popu- family as a desirable social goal. But the lation growth within an economic envi- notion of a one-child family as a serious rynment that has been anything but free national aimhad not yet .surfaced. Mid- enterprise. They also conveniently ig- way between the two conferences, China nored the fact that the country with the became the first country to adopt such a lowest birth rate in the Western Hemi- program. For the Chinese, it was not sphere, Iowa- even than the United merely a slogan but the centerpiece of a States, is Cuba, a centrally planned econ- nationwide effort replete with incentives omy.5 and disincentives.3 Third World leaders are now speaking, During the interim between Bucharest out on the urgency of slowing popula- and Mexico Cit,the World Fertility Sur- tion growth. They range from the presi vey was als .gely completed. The dents of Brazil and Kenya to the leading largest sod, ence research project industrialists of India: In Latin America, ever undertaken, it analyzed ingreat de- the resistance of the Catholic church is tailthe' attitudes toward childbearing being overridden by popular opinion and family size and identified a substan- and by women who demand relief from tial unmet demand for family planning incessant childbearing. The United Na- services. It also looked at the many eco- tions Fund for PopulationActivities nomic and social influences on fertility, (UNFPA) and the World Bank are being considered the role of social gains in re- inundated by requests-from African gov- diking family sizeand concluded that ernments that want to launch family improved education and employment planning programs. opportunitiesfor women correlated The first step in solving this most basic more. closely with fertility decline than global problemisidentifiration and any other social indicator. The study awareness. Awareness must reach the

41.1 r--1( S.

Stopping- Population Growth (a03 ) pointwherea political'response Table 9-1. Countries At or Approaching becomes feasible. Many .-Third World Zero Population Growth, 1984' 6(741)01es are now at that point, .as'their statements in Mexico City indicate. Per- Annual haps the most important was that of . Rate of Rafael Salas, the head of UNFPA' and Country Chang'e,Population tjSecretaryT;eneral of the conference. He -sss (percent) went beyond urging a mere slowing of At /..PG2 population growth; saying !our goal is Amsirta 0.0 7.ce the stabilization of global population Belgium +0.1 9.9 within the shortest period possible be- Dentna -0.1 5.1 fore the end of the next century."6 East C any +0,3 16.7 flungary --0.2 10.7 Italy +0.1 56.8 Luxembourg it 0.0 OA Norway +0.2 4.1 A FERTILITY' TRENDS AND :St en 0.0 8.3 4 PROJECTIONS +0.2 6:5- United Kingdom +0.1 55.6 World population in 1984 totaled 4.76 Wes/ Germany -O.? 61.4 billion, an increase of some 81 million in a year. This growth-the result of 13k Total 243.1 N.million biplis and 52 million deaths--: means the contemporary world is still in Approaching Z1'C3 the middle of the demographic transi- Bulgaria +0.3 ft9 tion, with high fertility, and compara- Czechoslovakia +0.3 15.4 tively low mortditty.7 Behind this global Finland +0.5 4.9 generalization lie wide disparities be- France +0.4 54.6 tween nations. The population sizes of a Netherlands +0.4 44.4 dozen countries, all in Europe, are now Romania -1-0.5 22.6 essentially stationary, neither growing nor declining. (See Table 9- I ,) They Total 120.8 range from tiny Luxembourg to West 'Excludes migration.'Zero population growth Germany, which may be on the verge of is here defined as within a range of plu's or minus 0.2 percent change in population size per year. a Jong-term decline in population size: 5Countrics with a population growth rate.of 0.5 In a world where population stability is percent per year or less with fertility below replace- now widely recognized as a goal that is ment. not only desirable but essential over the souitcr.: Worldwatcli Institute estimates.. based on data in'United Nations, Ifoitlilv. Bulletin of Statistics; longer term, the achievement of zero New York. monthly. population growth by this dozen coun- triescontaining 5.2 percent of the from Finland,. with less than 5 million world's population is an encouraging beginning. ptopk, to France; 'with 55 mafiosi. Ifs In addition, six more European coun- these six also cease. growing, 'they will tries are apprdaching zero population_ boost the share of the world's people growth, with annual growth rates of 0.5. living in countries with no population percent or less and fertility rates well/growth to a total of 7.7 percent. below replacement level. In size, they go The next big Oar* in this figure is .State of the World-4985 A likely -to cont6. when none df the --three -virtually nonexistent. -Annual population largest industrial countriesJapan, the grOwth,rates range from 3.2 percent iq United States, or the Soviet Union Iran to 3.7 percent in Syria. The pro- reaches a stationary population. The eed4rorn oil exports help sustain these first two, which have both slowly grow- 71 gains in Iraq and Iran, but the ing populations and fertility rates beldiv hug populations projected for the mid,- replacement level, are-moving in this di- dle of the next centul,y and beyond will rection. In fact, Japan's current popula- materialize after most of the oil is gone, tion growth rate of less than-0.7 percent raising questions as'to how these people per year and below-replacement fertility will be supported. mean that en'untry could be at or near The demographic prospect in Africa is zero population growth by-the end f the -equally bleak. As in most of the Third century.So,too,could the United World, not only is population growth States, if it can regain control of its bor- rapid, but the number of young people ders.nd iiinit immigration to that which reaching the age when they can have is legal. children is far greater than ever before. This is much less likely: for the Soviet The World Bank projects that the cur- Union, however. After a generation of rent populations of Ethiopia and Nigeria moving downwardd, tandem, birth rates will increase sevenfbld before coming to in the Unit' a es and the . Soviet a halt, a century or more; hence. For Nig- Union are now beginning to diverge-7 eria, which is now hone to 9I million largely because of hi5h fertility in he people, the Bank projects 'an incredible Soviet Unidn's Asian, predominantly addition of 527 million--n.lore than' he Muslim republics. In the European So- current population of the entire coAti- viet Union, rates are similar to those in nein. - Western. Eurdpe, either approaching or

below zero population growth. Births , . and deaths in this region are essentially' he projected growthjOr North in balance. In the Asian republics, how- Amerfca, all of Etiiope, and the So- ever, fertility remains highso high, in viet Union,is less than the additions fact,that the demographic center of gravity is shifting eastward toward cen- expected in either Bangladesh or tral Asia. Indeed, in the Muslim repub-'Nigeria. lics birth rates are higher than in several states in India.8 At the other end of the fertility spec- In LatinAmeiica..some progress. is trum are the Indian subcontinent, the being made in reducing fertility: Be- Middle East, Africa, and Latin AmericZ tween the early sixties and the early Although India has made some progress ties birth rates were.reduced in Braiil by in reducing itsfertility, .dropping its 30 percent, in Colombia by 37 percent, growth rate to 2.2 percent per year, the and in Mexico-by 20 percent. Declines of populations of Bangladesh and Pakistan this Magnitude in these three .Ceuntr7s7"* continue to expand; at 3.1 and 2.8 per- which makeup close to ,two thirds of cent respectively. The combined num- Latinpuerica's total population, are en- tler of people in these three countries- couraging. Unfortunately, .i,4,141i to" many 897 million in19/32.-.--is projected to people now under the age.40:15 (44 per- reach 2.54 billion before it stops grow- sent of Mexico's population, for exatn- . ins. (See Table 9-2.) In the Middle East, ple), the growth mometiturn remains evidence of effective family planning is strong. Wbrld;11; Bank demographeis prb- T; 2 1-9'. Slopping Popu4n Growth (205) Table 9-2,Current Population p1 Selected Countries, With Projecdoiis to Stationary State,

Population Size Population, hen Stationary Change From Country 1982. it'.44ateis Achieved 1.982 Population (rnillon) (million) (percipt) Bangladesh 93 454 +388 Brazil 127 304., +139 China 1,008 ,1,461 +45 Egypt 44 114 +159 Ethiopia. 33 231 "I` +600 Irf"

France 54 62 4'. +15 India 711 '1,707 +138 Indonesia-. 153 370 +142 Japan 118 128 +8 Mexico 73 199 -173

Nigeria 91 618 +579) 'Pakistan 87 377 +333 Poland 36 49 4-36 '-'South Africa 30 123 +310 South Korea 39 70 +79 a Soviet Union 270 377 +40 Turtion 47 Ill 1:136 Unit gdont 56 59 United States 23.2 292 +26 WestGermany 4. 62 54 13 sonar= World Bank, World Development Report 1989(New York: Oxford University Press, 1984).

ject that Mexieo's pophlation willnearly growth for North America, all of Europe, triple before growth stops,9 and the Soviet Union is less than the ad- In sum, although the population pro- ditions expected in either Bangladesh or ' jections for the industrialcountries and Nigeria.")

East: Asia seem reasonable enough in . These projections of severalfold in- terms of what local resource and life- creases in the national populations for support systems can sustain, those for many Third World countries have an air much of the rest of the worldp do not. of unreality. There is considerable dis- Most demographers are still projecting parity between demography and other that world populationwillcontinue disciplines such as ecology, agronomy,- 4. growing until it reachessome 10 billion, and,increasingly,economics. What but that most of the 5.3 billion additional demographers are projecting just does peOple will be concentrated itl1 a, few re- not mesh withwhat ecoluistsor gionsprincipally the Indian 'subconti- agronoMists are reporting. trailco9, nent, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin many countries ecological deterioration America. For example, the projected is translating into economic decline that (206) Matt of the World-1985 inturn_leads to social disintegration. As Rica,- -and-SriLanka, this\ practice may outlined in Chapter 1, the resultcan be avoid as many as five birthsper woman. a breakdown of progress and a return to Recognition of the role of later mar- the first phase of the demographic tran- riages in reducing fertility and slowing sition: high birth ratesandhigh death population growth has led many govern- rates:Although this will lead to a smaller rmAts to raise the legal age of marriage, population ,size, it is presumably not a although such laws are difficult to' en- routillgo that goal that any country would force. Among the. countries that have choose to follow. The time has come to attempted this are China, India, and assemble an interdisciplinary team that Tunisia. Complianceisusually beet can consider Otis process and make real- in countries where economic gains and iMic population projections. socialtrendsare naturally bringing aboutsuchchange.IRdeveloping countries experiencing steady economic improvement) the marriage age tends to rise. In South Korea, for example, SOCIAL INFLUENCES ON the. averAge age of marriage forwomen, which was 16,6 years in 1925, reached FERTILITY nearly 24 by 1975, with most of the in- To assess the effects of various fertility- crease coming' during the last two decades.; I reductionpracticesorinfluences, demographers start with a base,figure of Although breast-feeding was not fully 17 births per woman as maximum fertil- appreciated in the early days of the modern family planning movement, it too ity. This is the number of children thata plays an important. role' in controlling woman is biologically capable of bearing fertility. Women who are breast-feeding during liter reproductive life, roughly do not usually ovulate, a precaution from age 15 to 50. Few women, of taken by nature to avoid the. phySiologi- course, ever have this many children. cal stress associated with lactating and Even in developing' societies with .high being pregnant simultaneously, Reliable fertility,the national average rarely data on breast-feeding, only recently reaches half the maximum theoretical available for number of developing potential. (See Table 9-3.) countries, show that this practice makes One reason the actual number of its maximum contribution in the least births, per woman in developing soci- developed ones, where access to infant eties is well below the maximum possible formulas and contraception is limited. In is that in most countries the averageage African 'countries, such as Ghana and of marriage is considerably abdve the Kenya, the contraceptive effect of breast- onset of reproductive capacity. Even in feeding avoids over four births The Bangladesh, where child betrothal is still ,contributionof thispracticeisin- practiced and where the consummation fluenced both by how manywomen ofTorriagetypicaliy takes place within,a nurse and by how long they cka so after few yeas of sexual maturity, the delay of each birth. In Bangladesh, for example, marriage avoids at least one birth for the the average mother breast -fends for 29 average woman. In countries further months. This uncommonly long period along the development scale antiin has historically played an important role which the average age of marriage is in limiting the number of children, and much higher, such as Colombia, Costa still accounts for nearlyseven fewer

O 7:-

4 Stopping Population Growth t307) Table 9-37 Sources of Fertility Reduction, Selected Developing Countries

Reduction from Maximum Fertility Due to Maximum Fertilityof -Actual Marriage Breast- Contra- All Other Country Average Woman Fertility Delay Feeding .cep Factors (births per woman) Bangladesh 17 6.0 1.2 6.8 0.8 2.3 Colombia 17 4.3 4.7 1.5 4.2 2.3 Costa Rica 17 3.2 4.7 0.8 6.9 1.5 Ghana 17 6.2 2.2 4.3 0.9 3.4 Indonesia 17 4.5 .2.6 5.2 2.5 2.1

Jordan 17 7.6 3.3 2.5 2.6 0.9 Kenya 17 7.4 I 2.7 . 0.7 2.0

Lesotho I 17 5.3 ,3.0 0.5 3.9 Mexico 17 6.3 3.4 1.8 3.4 2.0 Nepal I/ 6.1 ,.1.7 6.1 0.2 2.8

Pakistan 17 6.2 2.3 4.5 0.4 3.6

Paraguay 17 4.6 4.5 . 2.0 2.7 Peru 5.4 4.7 2.7 2.8 1.5 Philippines 17 5.1 5.0 2.6 3.0 1.3 Senegal ,17 6.9 1.7 4.6 0.2 3.5

South Korea 17. 4.2 3.3 -2.6 2.2

Sri Lanka 17 3.7 5.0r 4.3 2.3 . 1.7 Syria 17 7.5 3.4 2.8, 2.1 1.2

Thailand 17 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.5 . IA Vqiezuela 17 4.4 4.2 1.4 5.1 2.0 SoUkce: Adapted from World Bank, World Development Report 1984 (NeW York: Oxford University Press 1984), which compiled a table from World Fertility Survey data gathered during the mid- and late seventies.

birthsforthe averageBangladeshi breast-feeding. Many developing coun- woman. try, governments are seeking to counter Unfoorately, breast-feeding is de- th) decline in this traditional practice be- clining 1,11F many developing countries. cause the use of infant formulas, often For example, in Thailand the average with unsanitary water supplies, increases nursing 'perioddeclined from 22.4 infant illness and mortality. And in indus- months in 1969 to 17,5 months in 1979, a trial societies breast-feeding is being en- drop of over a fifth in a decade. Simi- couraged by the medical community be- lar patterns can be seen in other develop- cause at' least some authorities feel that ing countries where infant formulas are infants nourished this way are healthkr promoted as an alternative to mother's and better adjusted than those who are

milk. The growing shaie of WQMC111 who bottle-fed.,17 . work clutside 'the home as modernization The contribution of contraception. to progresso also interferes with regular the rducticin, of frrtility varies widely 1 (608) State of theti'orld-1985 within the Third World. In over a half- CONTRACEPTIVE PRACTICES doien of the countries in Table 9-3con- traception prevents less than one birth 'The voltmtaty prevention impregna- per woman, far less than either del4ed tion or conception isnot new. One Marriage or breast-feeding.Net in oth'prs method still widely used, for example, contraception plays a dominant role: In even in technologically advanced indus- Costa Rica, its use prevents close to trial societies is withdrawal or coitus in- seven births. per woman. In such cays, terruptus, a practice that goes back at contraception has played a major role in least a few thousand years. Contracep- moderatingpopulationgrowth. If, tion can be broadly grouped into three breast-qeding declines in frequencyor. categories: traditional practices of within duration, as it has in so manycases, drawal, abstinence, and rhythm; modern contraceptive usage shouldincrease reversible technologies of the oralcon- merely to, offset the formdr's effecton traceptive,theintrauterinedevice fertility. Indeed, the slower fertility de (IUD), and barrier devices such ascon- dine observed in some regions may be .loms and diaphragms, which are often partly attributable to a decline in breast- used in conjunction with- spermicides; feeding." and surgical sterilization. Also reversible As societies modernize, the factors Is a fairly new hormonal injection,usu- controllingfertilitychange.Atthe ally marketed wider the tradename 'broadest level, lker marriage and con- Depo Provera, that is being used in some tracepticr become more important and 80 industrial and developing countries,. the role of breast-feeding subsides. In although it is not yet approved, in the the final stage of the demographic tran- United States. One shot provides contra- sition, the mix of contraceptive practices ceptive protection for several months, typically shifts away from those used for anflittportantconsiderationinareas spacing children to the more reliable where medical personnel and goodsare methods, such as sterilization, used to in short supply." stop having children altogether. The social indicator that correlates mostcloselywith decliningfertility Worldwide, sterilization protects across the whole range of development is the education 4f women. .The attain- more couples from unwanted preg- ment of literacy itself brings an initial nancy than any other practice. abrupt reduction in fertility. It declines further as women's average education level is progressively raised to primary Worldwide, ,sterilization protects school, secondary school,, and. then col- more couples from unwanted pregnancy Paralteling this, the economic indi- than any other practice, largely because tator closely correlated with fertility de- of its prevalence in three populouscoun- cline is women's participation in the paid triesChina, India, and the United- work force outside the home. In sod- States. Oral contraceptiyes (thepill) eties where population growth hascome rank second, partly because theyare ex- to a halt, this figt\re commonly ranges tensively used in so many areas, both in- from well over 50 percent in some West dustrial and developing. Indeed, the pill European countries to over 90 percent is the mainstay of family plamiing efforts, in some of sbcialisi Eastern Europe for in all but a handful of the countries women 'fiN their working and childbear- wherecontraceptiOn is commonly ing years," used." Stopping' Population Growth (209) Patterns of contraceptive use vary traditional approachON, are so widelye widely among countries and do notnec- used in some industrial t Quntries. In

essarily correspond with levels of devel- ,France, for example, a third t3 . . the cou- opment. (See Table 9-4.) The pill, for ples protected by contraception 'x),w use example, completely dominates Egypt's traditional methods, such as withdrhswal. family planning program: 17 of every 20 In Poland, these older techniques Ask) contraceptingcouplesrelyonthis dominate the effort to limit family size: method. And in Indonesia nearly 3 out This heavy dependence on traditional of 5 couples using contraception take methods in Poland and a number of the pill. It is ironic thaw modern contra- other East European countries is in part ceptive is so prevalent in some key devel- due to the lack of modern contracep- oping countries at the same time that tives.

Table 9-4. Share of Couples Using Contraception in Sefectd Countries, By Method, Circa 19781 Condom, Traditional Diaphragm, Sterili- All Country Methods' Pill IUD Spermicide ration Medic)* (percent) Australia 21 26 6 10 67

Bangladesh 3 3 1 8 Belgium 35 31 3 7 5 81 China 3 6 35 1 24 69 Colombia 9 19 8 5 8 49

Egypt 1 17 .2 .0120 France 26 31 9 8 5 79 Ghana 2 2,, 4 India 3 20 24 Indonesia 4 16 6 2 0 28.

Kenya 3 2 1 ,1 7 Mexico 9 15 7 4 7 42 Peru .18 .5' 1 7 -,4 3 34 Poland 41 2 1. 1.3 57 South Kgrea I1 7 10 6 . 20 54

Spain 32 12 7 . 51 Thailand 4 22 4 7 ,16 53 Torkey 26 6 4 1 40 United States 6 23 6 14 19 68 United Kingdom 9. 24 6 21 15 .75 'Includes all women of reproductive age a9d in stable sexual union.'Includes withdrawal, abstinence,. rhythM, and douche. ttsmacks: MI data except for China from Ann-Larsdh, "Patterns of Contraceptive Use Around the World," ° Population Reference Bureau, Washington, July 1981; Chjnese data from Laurie Liskin et all, '" Vasectomy --Safeand Simple," Population Reports, ovembeiVDecernber 1983. Ir

(21o) State q/ theWorid 985

I Most of the fdata' in Table 9-4 were Cultural similaritiesincluding a corm gathered from stuleys, but in a few mon language, the regular exchange of cases, such as India, the information medical ..information, and the common comes from familY planning service press coverage. accorded research re- ---,agencies and hencd does not ,includej ports in the two countriesmay contrib- figures on traditional or folk methods of ute to the contraceptive usage similari- pregnancy preventi4n. If survey data ties. were available forndia, they would -Hie methods -choseninparticular most likely show wit drawal and absti- countries can change overtime as gov- nence playing at leas a small role in re- ernments gain experience tn providing ducing fertility well blow the biological family planning Services, as they,tmder- maximum.', . stand couples' needs better, and as new India is unique in its ovcryhelming technologies become available. For ex- dependence on sterkiation_both male ample, 'South KOrea's family planning and female, largely bdcaus-e of vigorous program relied heavily on IUDs until the government promotioni and the failure. pill was introduced in 1968, partly be- to provide other met4ds until recently, cause.for some,wotnen the IUD-id un- such as oral contraceptives. Reportedly desirable side effects. Yet the ) con- five of every six couples protected by tinued to be the dominant- technology contraception rely on sterilization. Much ehOSen until 1976, when the government of the remaining protection in India realized that 85 percent of the couples comes from the .cond4m and IUD, al- using contraception were doing so to though the latter acquired a bad reputa- stop having children entirely. This led\to tion during a poorly tun government an expansion of sterilization services for campaign in the late sixties. The empha- both men ar-1 women. Within a matter sis then was on insertion, with Ifle at- of years sterilization movedtothe fore- tention to follow-up. AS a result, many front of South Korea's farittly, planning women suffered complications, includ- program, preventing more pregnancies ingexcessive menstrual bleeding and than the pill and the IUD combined." pain. IUDs are.thus not liS widely used in Cultural influence4 also shape contra- India as they arc in other developing ceptive usage-in ways it is often hard to countries. Women in..China, in contrast, anticipate. In Iwilonesia, for instance, depend heavily on IUDs, the method the IUD isquite popular. on Bali, popu- chosen by half the 118 million married lated largely by Hindus.. But on Java, women of reproductive' age who are with its predominantly Muslim popula- using contraception. Thus some 59 mitt tion, it is far less widely used. Appareritly lion Chinese rely on IUDs to avoid un- Balinese women are accustomed to male wanted pregnancies. Sterilization is the child birth attendants whereas Javanese second most popular method in China. women rely on midwives tind are thus In the United States, the pillis the reluctant to have a doctor, usually a man, mosj widely used .contraceptive, chosen insert an IUD." . by one third of the couples who use a Sterilization,' an essentially nonrevers- method: Sterilization, both male and fe- ible surgical procedure, is in many Ways male, isa close secondrpromising to dis- an ideal technique for couples who are place the pill soon. Most of the remain- certain they, do not want any more chil- ing one third or so of couples choose dren. At one time sterilization was lim- diaphragms or IUDs. The pattern .in the ited to women, but over the last .two United Kingdom i* strikingly similar. decades malesterilization(vasectomy) Stopping Pipit lotion Growth .(.2.11) has become much more common. (See methods of fertility control, once the Table 9-5.) In three of-the world's most desired family size is reached.'They are populouscountries,the number of a one-time procedure and are surgically at vasectomies hasin some yearsap- somewhat simpler to perform than fe- proached or exceeded female steriliza- malesterilization. Insonic areas tions. In Indite' and the United States, pat medics have been drawn into the vasectomies account for roughly half of program. At the Colombo mo\eting, A. all sterilizatiohs. In. China, female sterili- Latif Mick. of Pakistan argued that "in zatio s (tubectomies) arc more numer- rural Pakistan, there is a shortage of doc- ous, araging some 2.5 million'per year- tors, and one has to decide on priorities. from l9 I to 1978 ,compared with 1.7 Some of the paraiiiedics could probably rrlillionvaetomies." do vasectomies better than physicians In the years ahead, vasectomy is likely because they 'paramedics] are trained to get more at*tion, One indication of only in that."" Male sterilizations are this is a conference that was held in Co- also a good way to involve men in faniily lombo, Sri Lanka, in the fall of 1982the planning programs. M.A.B. Mustafa, a Khartoum gynecologist, observed at the first international gathering ever to be conference that "about six years ago, I devoted exclusively to-the subject of vas- came to the conclusion that if family ectomy. Representativefsome25 coun- planning is to be effective in the Sudan, tries shared information on program suc-- men must be involved and a vasectomy cesses and the potential to-term role program included. "" of vasectomy in the worldwide effort to Even while, international attention is slow population growth. Someported focusing more on the potential role of on highly successful programs; the`eforts vasectomy, some countries that have of. others were just beginning.20 \s. successfulsterilizationprogramsfor Although more women than men are both sexes have noted a shift back to- sterilized in most countries, interest in ward greater reliance on female surgery. vasectomy is rising in the Third World. In part this is due to men's resistance to Where medical and economic resources vasectonw and reluctance to be involved are scarce, vasectomies have an advan- in family planning. It alst stems from tageover female sterilizations or other to new techniques for fetiliale steriliza- 0 tion, laparoscopy minilaparotomy, Table 9 -5. Estimated Number of Couples both perfected .cluring the seventies. A Preventing Births by Vasectomy, 1983. laparoscopy requires only a small ab- dominal incisipn, large enough to insert Couples Protected a laparoscope that is used to cut and ountry by Vasectomy then tie the woman's fallopian tubes: A China 1.000,000 minilaparotomy requiresaneven India 12,000,000 smaller incision. With both of these rela- United States 5,000,000 tively new methods, female steriliza- United Kingdom 1,100,000 tions, like male ones, can be performed All other 2,800,000 with local anesthetic and on an outpa- tient basis. Because family planning pro= World Total 32,900,000 grams in so many countries are oriented SOMA: L'allTte !Akin et al., "Vasectomy--Safe more toward women than men, laparos- and Simple,"Population Report.i, November/ copy and minilaparotomy have quickly December 1983.. become popular.23 (2.ta). Staof the World-1985 .ADVANCES IN children. And sometimes, when noratire children are desired, the goal is topre- CONTRACEPTIVE vent pregnancy completely. TECHNOLOGY Developinra new female contraceptive may take 10-20 years and costup to Since the pill was developed in the late $50 nuihon. Reproductive physiologists fifties and the IUD became important in estimate that it will probably take even. the mid-sixties, few completelynew con- longer to develop an entirelynew male traceptives have been introduced. How- contrateptive, simply because lessre- ever, there have been a number of im- se arch has been done on the nude repro- portant innovations inbirth control ductive system. Any new product must technology during the 20 years'. 'Exam- be carefullytested before-it is approved ples include injectable steroidslike by any national governments. In addi- Depo Prove.ra and implantable steroid- tion, the criteria for testing andapprov- releasing devices, the two female sterili- ing new contraceptives vary fromcoun-0 zation procedures' just desfettbed and trytocountry. These financial and improved means of pregnancy termina- regulatory hurdles have discouraged the tion thrOugh menstrual regulation or private sector fc-sanazaoving aheadas vig- prostaglandins. orously as might be socially desired.26 Of course, advances in contraceptive Nevertheless, although itis under- technology are not essential to Mowing funded, research on new methods is population growthas a number of moving ahead on several fronts. Among countries, both industrial alirdevelop- the 'public-sector agencies activelyen- ing, have demonstrated. Indeed, tradi- gaged in thisnew field are the World tional societies maintained a stationary Health Organiiation; the National insti- Population size relying onlyon tradi- tute of Child Health and Human Devel,- tional techniques. But the rapid growth opment in the United States; India's now confronting the world community, Council for Medical Research; the Popu- and the frightening rates still facing lation Council, supported by U.S. foun- some Third World countries, argue for dations and the Agency for International effectivefamilyplanningprograms. Development (AID); and the Program Their effectiveness in ,turn depends on for Applied Research on Fertility Regu- providing as many different birth *Iwo' lation and Family Health International, methods as possible. For developing both supported heavily by AID. Some countries, the primary concernsare that efforts are intended to improve existing T.4 contraceptives aresafe,inexpensive, contraceptives., others are pursuing en- simple to use, and depend little on medi- tirely new lines of research. (See Table cal personne1.11 9-6.) Over the next decade or so,a new Beyond this pressing societal need, generation of contraceptives is expected

the varying individual situations of Mil- to reach the marketplace. . . lions of couples around the world call for One technological advance that would increasing the range of contraceptives greatly increase the flexibility of existing available. No one method is appropriate family planning programs is reversible for all couples or for any one person's sterilization. Surgical techniques now entire reproductive life. Insome used. for vasectomy are highly reversible stances the object is to postpone preg- but only within fiveyears oftheoriginalop- , nancy until well beyond the initiation of eration, and sophisticated microsurgery sexual activity. In other situationscon- is required. Successful reversal of female traceptives are used to space the birth of sterilization is too 'low lo be reliable.26

rodo cj. a-) Ar. Stopping Population Growth (29) Table 94. Prospective New or Improved nese, who are participating in this re: Technologies for Controlling Fertility search, accidentally discovered that men in certain communities in China had un- Likely To Be Available by 1990 t commonly lowfertility.Researchers Safer oral contraceptives eventually traced this phenomenon to Improved IUDs the use of cottonseed oil that was not 'Improved barrier contrace"ptives for highly refined, and specifically to a sub- women stance called gossypol, a compound Improved long-acting steroid injections found in cottonseed. Although gossypol Improved ovulation-detection methods has some side effects, tests are Wider way Steroid implants on the safety and effectiveness of a gos- Steroid vaginal rings sypol-based male pill.Another male Menses inducer to be taken for miss' contraceptive that could be on the mar- period ket before the end of the century is an antifertility vaccine, which would also Could Be Available.by 1990 greatly broaden the range of male con- Monthly steroid-based contraceptive pill traceptive options.27 New types of drug-releasing IUDs For women, there are potential ad- Antipregnancy vaccine for women vances on several fronts, including bar- Sperm-suppression contraceptives for rier methods, hormonal contraceptives, men and in some instances a combination of Reversible female sterilization the two. One such combination, steroid Simplified male and female sterilization vaginal rings, may well be available be- Self-administered menses inducer fore 1990. Another approach with considerable potential i$ h self-administered t Could Be Availabl \by 2000 menses inducer, in effect a very early Antifertility vaceide for men abortion, which might be on the market Antisperin drugs for men by 1.990. At the forefront is a subdermal Ovulation prediction techniques (for use implant developed by Population Coun- with periodic abstinence) cil scientists that will be marketed under New types of antiovulatiOn contraceptive the trademark NORPLANT. Consisting drugs for women of six tiny silicone rubber capsules, this Drugs that clisnipt women's ovum implant can be inserted under the skin of tranwort a woman's upper apt' or forearm. Within Reversible male sterilization (1, 24 hours it starts providing protection Oharmaeologic or immunological against pregnancy and continues to do sterilization for men and women so for at least five years. But it can be sotntcz$: U,S. Office of Technology essment, removed quite easily if a return to nor- World.Potadatum and Fertility FYtinning Technologies: mal fertilityisdesired. Some 7,000 The Wad Tionity Years (Washington, D.C.: U.S. women in 14 countries have participated Government. Printing Office, 19142); George Zel. densteirt,',"Goniractption in the Population/ infield research, demonstrating the im- Development Ft:Nation," presented at the First slant's effectiveness ina broad range Of Conference or the Asiaii Forum of Parliamentari- social settings, The Population Couritil ans on Population'and Deyelopmenl; New DdhL has licensed a Finnish pharmaceutical February 17-20, 1984. - firm to develop and market the implant, with the stipulation that the company An important new contraceptive being must make a major distributiori, effort in worked on is a pill for men that would developing :;Countries." stippress spermdevelopment.\ The Chi- These initiatives and prospects of new ( 2 Li) State of the WorldI985 birth control methods in the next few things. A May 1977 Worldwatch Paper decadesare.encouraging.Unfortu- noted that "more than half the. world's nately, worldwide expenditures onre- couples go to bed each night un- productive research and contraceptive. protected from unplanned preg- development are minuscule, so. small nancy."" In the seven years since, the that they almost get lost in the global share of couplesthatare now un- R&D budget. Even with the mostgener- protected has undoubtedly declined. ous accounting, they total less than $200 But it is still substantialonly about two million per year. If we are to meet the fiftlis.jof all Third World couplesuse -challenge, especiallyindeveloping contraceptives. Excluding China, the tries, of slowing and eventually figure is substantially less. ng population growth,far more St be done to provide couples with e widest possible range of contracep- Worldwide expenditures onrepro- tive technologies. ductive research and contraceptive development are so small that they almost get lost in the global R & D budget. Two FAMILY. ,PLANNING GAPS The World Fertility Survey reposed There are two major fainily planning that half of. all women interviewed inthe gaps: one between the demand for fam- developing world said that they wanted ily planning services and their availabil- no more children. (See Table 9-7.) This ity, and another between the societal is the good news. The bad news, accord- need to sloW population growth quickly ing to a World Bank study, is that 'any couples who say they want no mor chil- and the private interests of couples in dren do not use contraceptionus ally doing so. Neither will tir easy to narrow. because they have poor access to m d- The first requires far greater expendi- erti services." tures on family planning servicesan in- In Latin America, .61 pvcent of the crease in local clinics, trained.personnel, women surveyed in Mexico;69percent information, and services. The second in Colombia, and 75 percent in Peru in- gap can be eliminated only through in-- dicated that they wanted no more chil- tensive public education efforts that help dren. The share of married Asian people understand the social conse- women in this category was consistently quences of continuing excessive popula- rather high-50 percent in Bangladesh, tion growth, 49 percent in Indonesia, 68 percent in Ten .years ago, at the World Popular Thailand, and 77 percent in South tion Conference in Bucharest; the as- Korea. Only in Africa did a decided mi- sembled governments took a bold step nority of the women have this view-20 toward reducing the gap in availability of percent in Ghana, 25 percent in Kenya, family planning services: They agreed it and 27 percent in the Sudan. Even in dy was the basic human right of couples to Africa, these numbers dwarf' the.propor- plan their families and to have access to tion of women actually. practicingcon- the services needed to do so. Agreeing traception, suggesting that the desire to to this point and making the services limit family size far outstrips the availa- available. were,however, two different bility of family planning services. vv Stopping Population Growth (215) Table P-1. Share of Married Women Kenya could double the number practic- Aged 15-49 Who Want No More ing family planning. Sin" iilarly, in Thai-. Children, Selected Developing Countries, land, where 53 percent of thewomen Circa 100 already rely on contraception, an additional 14 percent report they would do Country Percent so if affordable services were conven' Bangladesh 50 iently available. Expanding the family Colombia 69 planning program in Thailandwould Costa Rica 55 raise the number of women usingcon- Ecuador 59 traception by nearly a quarter and could -Egypt 58. reduce the crude birth rate by at leasta few points, moving that' countryeven Ghana 20 losertoward eventual population sta- Indonesia 49 bility. And in Bangladesh, which hasone Ivory Coast 12 of the highest percentages of unmet Kenya 25 need for contraception, 26 percent of all Mekico' 61 married women would use contraception if Oven the opportunity to doso. Pakistan 50 This figure is especially significant be- Peru 75 cause it is three times as large as the 8 Philippines 59 percent reporting current contraceptive South Korea 77 use, Sri Lanka 67 One step governments can take to increase the availability in many countries Syria 44 is to eliminate existing restrictionson Sudan" 27 contraceptive use. For example, when Thailand 68 Turkey repealed a law banning steriliza- Tunisia. 56 tion, it opened up a whole new area in Venezuela 56 the country's family planning program. sopacz: World Bank,World Developnient Report And when the Indian -medical commu- 1984.(Newt York: Oxford University Press, 1984). nity finally agreed the, pill could bepro- moted, some 23 years after it had first There is another set of numbers that been introduced in'the country, Indian says a great deal about the inadequacy of couples had a. valuable new contracep- current family planning efforts: the share tive for spacing their children anda useof women who report that they want to ful complement to the sterilizationpro- practice contraception but who either gramsthatCurrentlydominate the lack ready access to servicesor cannot national family planning program."1 afford them. (See Table 9-8.) This group Another important initiative is greater requires no urging or further education reliance on paramedics. At the Colombo on the advantages of .family planning. conference on the role of vasectomy, They are women who arc convinced of Phaitun Gojaseni of Thailand observed the need to limit their family size. that "we need widecoverage for a family planning program, and paramedicsare In Kenya, for example, 8 percent of better than nothing."' Although the the women report an- unmet need for Medical profession sometimes resists, contraceptive services, versus 7 percent more and more governments are. recog- who alreadyusecontraception.So nizing that getting the brakeson popula- merely making services mo4available in tion growth quickly will require the ex- (316) State of the World-1985 Table 9-8. Unmet Need for but for avoiding birth -Contraception Among Married Women, Rougldy a tenth of le world's 4.76 Aged 15-49, Selected Developing billion people live in countries where Countries, Circa 1980 abortion is totally prohibited. About one fifth live where abortion is permitted Country Percent' only to save a woman's life. And for Bangladesh 26 roughly one quarter of the world abor- Colombia 16 tions are legally available on at least lim- Costa Rica ,8 ited grounds, such as threat to the Ecuador 20 woman's health, adverse social condi- Egypt 17 tions, or extreme economic circumstances. As a rule, these conditions are Ghana 6 interpreted rather liberally. In the re- Indonesia 12 maining countries, which contain close Kenya 8 to half the world's people, abortion is Mexico 18 freely available.33 Nepal 24 Although there is no systematic international reporting of data on either in- Pakistan 22 duced, or spontaneous abortions, schol- Peru 27 ars such as the late Christopher Tietze Philippines 20 have assiduously 'FbIlected numbers on South Korea 23 induced abortions for many countries. Sri Lanka 24 (See Table 9-9,) According to figures gathered by the Centers for Disease Syria 11 Control in Atlanta, .abortioni in the Sudan 8 United States, which, clinibed steadily Thailand 14. following legalization by a Supreme Tunisia to Courk decision in 1973; appear to have Venezuela. 16 leveled off since 1980.34 In Latin Arnerica, abortion is widely 'Average of high and low estimates. practiced, though mostly illegally. In sOttac: WorldBank, World Development Report Cuba, however, where it is legal, the 1984 (New York: Oxford University Press: 1984). number of abortions apparently approaches that of live births; In some East tensive use of paramedics or "barefoot European countries', such as Hungary, doctors." , abortions exceeded live birthi from All too often women who are denied 1959 through 1973. A similar situation access to contraceptive service's turn to existed in Romania from the late fifties abortion to limit the size of their. fami- through1966,whenabortionwas lies. Indeed, in many countries the ex- sharply restricted. In the Soviet Union, a tent of reliance on abortion, legal or 1974 estimate by theInternational legal, is an index of this family planning Planned Parenthood Federation cited gapdyhere services providing safe, reli- 230 abortions for every 100 live births, ablelontraceptives are widely available indicating some 70 percent of all Soviet and easily affordable, induced abortion pregnancies ended m abortions" rates are typically much lower than else: The small share of international aid where. In other countries, abort* has that is devoted to family planning high- become an important birth control tech- lights a major problem in reducing this nologynot for avoiding pregnancies gap in availability of birth control. Popu- Stopping Population Growth (2r7) Table 9-9. Incidence of Legal Induced goes to Asia, the region s4th half the Abortion, Selected Countries, 1980 world's people, 01 the top seven recipi- Ab' rtions per ent countries, Egypt is the only excep- Country Ab6rtions 100 rive Births don to this pattern. Many African family planning programs are newly launched (number) and although the total population assist- Bulgaria 128,500 98 ance they receive is relatively small in Canada 65,100 18 international terms, it is substantial in Cuba 104,000 76 per capita terms. Kenya, for example, re- Czechoslovakia 103,500 44 ceives 360 per capita and Zambia re- East Germany 80,100 35 Table 940. Population Assistance, By England & 128,600 20 Donor, 1981. Wales Frtmce 171,300 21 Donor Atitoent Italy 220,300 34 Japan 2,250100 120 million dollars) Government Poland 145,600 22 a, Australia 3.3 Belgium Romania 404,000 99 9.8 Canada Sweden 33,100 36 14.Q Denmark Tunisia 20,500 10 8.5 Finland United States 1,583,900 43 3.1 West Germany 108,900 Italy 1.0 Japan 33.4 si5uitce: Christopher Tietze, Induced Abortion: A Netherlands 13.2 World Review, 1983 (New York: Population Coun- '41.0 cil, 1983). Ne*. Zealand Norway 32.4 lation assistancearboUnts to less than Sweden 30.7 pOcent of total foreign aid (about $490 SWitzerland 1.4 million out of $38 billion in 1981), a United Kingdom 13.1 rather paltry sum given the high social United States 193.4 West Germany 22.5 costs. of failingtoslow population Others growth in much of the Third World. In 2.4 the early eighties, the United States was Total 373.9 providing about half the governmental assistance in family planning, a reflec- Organization tion of its traditional leadership on this World Bank 77.3 issue, Back iii 1971, however, the U.S. Ford Foundation 7.6 contribution accounted for 81 percent of kockefelicriFoundation 4.9 government aid. Fortunately, other in- Other Private Donors 27.4 &Istria,. governments, such as Canada, Japan, West Germany, and those of sev- Total. .117,2 .eral Nordic countries,. are now Playing a Much more prominentroleys0 (See World Total 491.1 Table 940.) sotiacE: Barbara K. Herz, "Pfficial Development . Not surprisingly, the lion's share of Assistance for Population," World Bank, Washing- the international family planning budget ton, D.C., unpublished, September 1983. (218) State of theWorki-1985 ceives 250, levels that compare favorably that -"there is a balance between the pLi- in pet capita terms with the major recipi- vate 'right of procreation and social - ents in Asia.$7 . sponsibility."88 Each society must seek Most of the funding for family plan-" that,balance in light oil its own circurn- ning programs in the Third world Stai4s. China, for example, determined comes from indigenous sources, low- from detailed projections of population ever. This is particularly true for large growth and future supplies of land, countries like China and India, where as- water, energy, and jobs that it is in thi, _ sistance from abroad averages 10 and social interest to reduce the average 40 per capita respectively. Such 'foreign number of children per couple to well assistance does nonetheless play a stra- below two, The resiMt 'is the world's first tegic role because it comes' ;in the forth of one-child family program. hard currency, permitting. the purchase The proyision of information can play of equipment and contraceptives* not an important role in bridging the gap otherwise available. It also requetitly between privately desired family size and brings with it technical assistance that is the smaller, socially desirable 'size. For sorely neededwhether it be statisti- individuals, this can take the form Of in- cians helping design a census or doctori formation about family health and weh who can wain local medical staffs in such fare. For\governments, it may be popula- procalures as laparoscopy. tion/resource projections, which show Tfie gap between the desire to limit ,how future population growth will affect family size and the means to do so is a per capita supplies of essentialre- Measurable -One. The second family sources. And ecological research can planning gap--between the family size help raige ,ptiblic understanding of the desired by couples and that which is de--felationship between the carrying capac- sirable from a societal 'point of view ity of local biological systems and the may presentlittle problem in some demands of both present and future countries. But in others it may be very populations. It can point out, for exam-- difficUlt to deal with. In family planning, ple, that beyond a certain point rising asp many other areas, the'untrammeled Fuel needs can lead to deforestation. pursuit of individual interests can wreak ,Sometimes this exercise of projecting social havoc. This is the justification for population/resource relationships into such things as compulsory vaccinations, the future fan have a dramatic effect on traffic speed restrictions, and pollution childbearing decisions. Aniong other controls. things it shifts the very personal question of fvhethtr or when to have children from the traditional focus of tirdviding Mostofthe funding for family security in old age to the more releiant planning programs in the Third one of how the number of children a World comes from indigenous person has will affect the quality of life of those children a generation hence. This, sources. subtle but important shift has 'been In-- strumenta in gainiu acceptance of the one-child family prrain in China.. In noting the differences, in some One of the demographic difficulties cases wide, between the family size trip- that niany gOvernments will have to con- inonly desired by individual couples and tend with over the °next several decades that which ivk tolerable from a societal is the momentum inherent in the agt point of view, the World Bank observes structures of populations now ,

Stopping Poulotion Growth (219) tutted by young people, those born since Table 9-11. Shane of Population Under 1970. In a number of societies children Fifteen in Seleited Countries, 1984 under constitute dose to half the total Country Share population. (See Table 9-11.) This enor- r_ mous group of your% people will reach (percent) reproductive age by the end of the cen- Nigeria 48 tury. Even if these countries were to Algeria 47 achieve replacement fertility by then Bangladesh roughly 2.1' children. per couple =-the 46 dominance of young people would lead,Mexico 44 to a doubling of population, in many Ethiopia AS Third World countries. Ina few, such as South Africa 42 Keaa and Libya, if replacement fertility Egypt were reached this year the current popu- 39 Turkey 39 lation would still increase 2.1 times be- India fore growth would stop. Unfortunalse 39 Thailand 39 none of these demographicall g countries is even close to reactag re- Indonesia 39 placement fertility.59 Brazil 37 The difficult decisions tbat more and China more governments will face will be in the 34 Poland 25 trade-of# betWeen family size and living Soviet Union standards. The more children there are 25 in the average family, the lower the qual- Spain ity of life for society. as a Whole, Many 25 Japan 23 countries are now moving into a period United States. where a failure to sharply reduce family 22 'United Kingdom 21 size is already leading to a decline in per West Germany 18 capita. consumption of food, energy, and water. A generation ago, when popula- ()URGE:Population Rcferance Bureau, 1984 World tion pressures in developing countries Population Data Sheet (Washington, D.C.: 1984). .vere far less than they are today, the shipsbetweenpopulationsizeand rapid-growth resulting from large fami- resour4 availability, between the de- lies simply meant a slower rate of overall improvement. Today, in all too many mands of future citizens and the sus- cases it means a deterioration in living ainable yields of life-support systems. A conditions. handful of industrial and developing Beyond the costs calculated earlier of country governments ha;re begun this getting family planning services to those exercise. All have undertaken national who have already expressed a desire for year 2000 studies (or, in the case of Mex- them, the cost of eliminatitig the second co, 'a proposed Ysar 2010 study) that family planning Kap--that is, reducing will assess populatiell/resource relation- the desired family size to that which is hipoo socially Optimalalso _needs to be es- In addition to the reseatch component timated. This will require far more than of eliminating the second family plan- a simple expansion of family planning nimi gap, information needs to be dis- services. It demands a research program emulated tp effect changes in attitudes that will help governments to under- oward family size. Finally, to the extent stand better future trends and relation- hat changing perceptions of future con- 1..

(120) Stole of the WorldI985" ditions do not bring about the needed very fuct that the meetings were con- reduction in family size, governments vened demonstrated Sultarto's personal will need to use incentives and disincen- concern with the population issue.41 tives. Perhaps a score or more countries A successfUl program requires*trong now use incentives of one form or an- public support. This can be achieved in other, ranging from a one-time $10 pay- various ways. Apart from demonstrated ment for a vasectomy in India to pre- enthusiasm by political leaders, pro0c- ferred access to schools and jobs for only tions of population alternatives can help children in China. Whatever the cost of clarify choices, giving substance to the' bridging this second family planning urgency of dealing with the issue. This gap, it is not nearly so great as the costs information can be used in public educa- of failing to do so: slowed social and eco- tion prorams, as the Chinese have nomic progress and, in sylecowitries, done, to create an awareness of the issue hunger: malnutrition, disea4. and out- commensurate with its gravity._ right. starvation. Some countries have effectively used support by well-known athletes, televi- sion 'celebrities. and actors to promote family planning or have worked small- family themes into popular soap operas. COMPONENTS OF SUCCESS The use of respected members of society, such as popular,politicayeiders or Successfulfamily planning programs prominent intellectuals, to inform (The vary widely in Their composition and public of the social costs of rapid popula- thrust but all'have certain characteristics tion growth often stimulates awareness. in common. In many developing coun- Such efforts are sometimes essential if tries success has been markedly facili- social acceptance of family planning and tated by a head of state who both under- .national population policies is to be es- stands the multidjmensional population tablished quickly. threat and is committed to doing some- Experience has repeatedly shown that thing about it. Not only iletiSt this con- the programs that work best are grasS- cern exist, but enthusiastic,- highly visi- roots ones, staffed by local people, by ble public support is especially help- leaders from within the community, ful. Their advice is typically more acceptable Closely related to this commitment at than that of an outsider brought in spe- the top is the setting of goals and the cifically to promote a program. Services allocation of.responsibility "for achieving should be readily available geograph- them. The fixing of responsibility, essen- ically and economically. If couples wish- tial for successful management of any ing to control their fertility have to travel program, is particularly important with more than an hour to reach a family population policy. Regular monitoring planning service center, they are likely to of the program is also usually essential. be discouraged from" doing so. If ser- During the late seventies, for example, vices are too costly, they go unwed. PresidentSuhartoof Indonesiain- 'The family planning programs that stituted quarterly meetings .with the pro- work best are Mose that offer the entire vincial governors to review the family panoply of servicesthe more con- planning programs.. These discussions traceptivel offered, the more likely cou- permitted a timely sharing of informa- ples wilLfind a method that meets their tion that helped overcome obstacles that needs. For personal pr medical reasons had developed at the local level. And the\ some contraceptivepfimay not be accept- Stopping Population ,Grooth (321) able. With a ;wide range Co choose from, services may not be enottgl To succeed, satisfaction and thefore continuation a program may have to be an ctivist one of use are far more ikely. Sterilization, that reaches out and contacts people, for both men and women,- is an impor- that takes information and services to tant component. Countries where itis each household. Merely opening a fam- illegal are severely handicapped in try- ily planning service center in a co,mmus- ing to teach population stability: Those nity, which may have sufficed 15 years with the most successful programs also ago, may no longer constitute afn ade- back up their contraceptive services vkiith quate effort. abortion, if desired, in the case of con- There is no universal adeat- for the traceptive failure. In virtually all of the shape of population policies and family dozen or so countries that have stopped planning programs. Each country must population growth, abortion has been tailor its educational effort, family plan- readily available. ning services, and pattern of incentives Success ora family planning program and disincentives to its particular .cir- and apopulation policy should no cumstances. This is not to say that gov- longer be measured-just by contracep- ernments should not adopt successful tive usage rates. The issue is not whether initiatives from other countries. But if fertility is declining, or declining faster they do not consider whether a particu- than it was before, but whether it is de- lar Kogram is socially and politicallyac- clining fast enough to sustain improve- ceptalewithintheifsociety,their ments 10 living standards. Against this efforts may be in vain. backdrop, just providing family planning

236 10

Getting BackonTrack

Lester R. Blywy and EdwaidCWolf

If the goal of economic, environmental, of the Third World becominga desert if and population policies is to improve the recenttrendscontinue.In private, human condition, then .t policies of World Bank officials talk despairingly of many governmentsareiow faPing. social institutions deteriorating to the Whether using corventional economic point that some countries in Africamay indicators such as economic growth and be "going back to the bush," income per person or even more basic Few national political leaders havea measu 'tit. of individual well -being such vision of the friture, And fewer still have as food ,'#"nsumiption, the trends in many $ plan for translating that vision into a countries are not encouraging. reality. Many are so preoccupied with Social indicators tell- a similarstory. day-to-day crises that they no longer The increases in life expectancy -regis- brave time to look ahead, no timeto tered throughout the world during the imagine wirat could be, The question third quarter of this centuryare no that should challenge political leaders longer occurring at all in somecoun- everywhere is how to get the world back tries. Infant mortality rates, once sharply on track. How can we restore the im- declining almost everywhere,are now provement in lilting conditions that char- rising in some food-deficit Third World acterized virtually 'the entire world dur- nations: These reversals on the social ing the third quarter, of this century? front a e most evident in Africa, where foodxis scarcerAnd in the debt-ridden countries of Latin America where incomes pave fallen some 10 percent since, .1 1980..1 RETHINKING THE FUTURE Perhaps more serious than thesere- cent downturns is a hiss of confidence in RestOring the broad -based gains in liv- the future that exists in so many quar- ing standards will,,not beeasy. But it is ters. This apprehension is born of a lack not impossible. Among other things it of econcrete.progress on some of the key will require a thorough overhauling of threats to our future, United Nations economic and population policies anda documents refer to the prospect of much restructuring of national priorities in the Getting Back on Thick (223 ) use of public resources. The corner= advanced and traditional technology. stone of such a reorientationis the real- The United States, for example, now ization that our security and future well- uses as, much firewood as India, some A being may be threatened less by the 130 million tons in 1981. Food produc- conflicts among nations than they are by tion, too, will represent a complex com- the deteriorating relationship between binationembracing both centuries-ola ourselves, soon to be five billion, and the techniques of composting and home natural systems and resources that sus- food production on the one hand, and tain us. the latest advances in gene splicing on The principal elements of an effort to the other.2 uild a sustainable society are rather In some important ways,. a sustainable raightforward. They include economic world economy will be more internation- and population policies that respect the ally interdependent; in others, much less carrying 'aificity of local ecosystems, so. Coping with common environmental protectsos, and preserve biological di-- threats such as acid rain, CO2 buildup, versity.. Any strategy that aims to im- and climate change will require an or- prove living standards will recognize the chestrated response among nations far depletable nature of fossil fuels. Suc- exceeding any such effort to date. Many cessful economic plans will capitalize on other activities, however, will become

.,. the abundance of labor and minimize the much more localized. Countries every- q.. use of scarce capital. where, for example, wilt become-Much Although restoring improvements in more self-sufficient in energy produc- . living standards is a formidable task, all tion, depending less on fossil fuel im- the individual initiatives for doiing so are ports and more on indigenous supplies reinforcing. For example, planting trees of renewable energy. National gene conserves soil and water, reduces the banks and plant breeding programs to buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2), stabil- help preserve each .country's endow- izes the hydrological cyclt, minimizes ment of plant genetic resources will be- flooding and drought, provides employ- come commonplace. Information and ment, and ensures' a renewable source of technology will move across national energy. Similarly, slowing population boundaries on a larger scale; whereas growth makes Virtuallyall problems. materials such as food and energy will much more manageable, as those coun- probably cross borders less. With an in- tries that have .reduced fertility are dis- crease in recycling; the ra* materials cOvering. Increasing energy efficiency traded internationally may also diminish. cuts down on CO2 buildup, reduces acid liy somecriteria, national economies, rain and hence protects forests, and pro- will be more centralized and by .others, vides higher living standards with a less centralized. For example, strategies givensupplyofenergy.Recycling to reduce CO2 buildup will be nationally materials also illustrates this pattern of designed and managed but the actual reinforcement: As it ,increases, energy efforts to cope with this threat will in- 'requirements dwindle, air pollution and volvea decentralization of energy sys- 'acid rain decline, pressure on forests is terns.tems. To cite one case, t4i7. ssive thou- reduced through paper recycling, and.; sand-megawatt, coal-fired e.,. :uric gener- enaployMent increases. ating plants will .be replacewith more A globalfuturenure that providesitn-4and more local cogeneration, much of it \proved living standards for everyone will by industrial firms that will simultane- not be a simple extrapolation of 'the re -'ously produce electricity and process cent past. It will be a complex mixture of steam.

238 4 1 (32-1 State of the World-1985 At present ,there are no good guidesto China is unique in terms-of population .the future that reasonablyportray the size, but it shares with-everycountry the mix that is beginning to unfold. One relationship between population and thing is certain: We are not movingto- local li fe- support systems. Theprincipal, ,ward the exclusively high-technology difference between Olina and other world that many hadonce anticipated. densely populated countries suchas Inkrmation is becomingan increasingly Bangladesh, India,Ethiopia, Nigeria, valuable commodity,one that will play a and Mexico may be that the Chinese central role in shaping the future. have had the foresightto Make projections of ?heir population andresources and the courage to translate the findings into policy.

A GENERATIONOF A generation of one-child families ONE-C1-11LI FAMILIES may be the key to'restoring asus- Earlier chapters outlined why countries iained imptovemeut in livingstan- with rapid populaticrp growth that 'wait dards. too long before applYring the brakesmay find themSelves in trouble. The first country to recogniz+ this was China. After rejecting for ileologicalreasons In one Third Worldcountry after an- thPurging ofa vigoto;us family planning other, the pressure on local life-support program by some of iheir own eminent systems is becoming extessive, as can be intellectuals in the fifties, the Chinese seen in their dwindling forests, eroding found by the seventies that theywere soilS, disappearing farmland, and falling facing potential demdgraphic disaster. water tables. If other governments take As mentioned in CNipter 9, during the a serious look atfuture population/ post-Mao assessment din the lateseven- resource balances, they may reach the ties the Chinese undellook several alter-. same conclusion the Chinese did. And native projections of population growth they may discover that theyare forced to choose between a one-child familypro- and resource demand's: Evenassuming that each couple wotild have just gram and falling living standards or, in two sonic cases, rising death rates. Given the children, it was clear that the population unprecedented numbers of-young would continue togrow, becatise of the people who will reach reproductiveage youthful age structure; by another 300- within the next two decades, 400 million people. Recognizing that a generation of one-child familiesmay be the key such an increase in Population would to restoring a sustained improvement in further rdtice alreadYlimitedper capita livingistandards. Success in striving for supplies of cropland,! fresh water, and an average of one child per familywill energy, the leaders in Beijing saw that it bring problems of its own; including'a would jeopardize the hard- earned gains severe distortion of age-group distribu- of the past generation. Rather than-risk tion, but it may be the pricemany soci- a fall in being standards, they decided to eties will have topay for neglecting pop- launch a one-child faMilyprogram. ulatii3n policy for too long. . Like. China, otherwaiting Worldcoun- No government would launcha one- tries appear to be too long be- child family program for fun, Politically fore tackling their population problems. it is extraoLdinarily demanding, particu-

2 3 9 Getting- Back on Track (225)- lady in societies with a strong preference which show most of these nations reach- for sons, as the Chinese leadership can ing replacement-level fertility of roughly attest. Yet in some countries, the alter- two children per couple around 2035, native may be an Ethiopian -type situa- about a' half-century from now.' (See tion, where population growth is being Table 10-1.) Once this level is reached, checked by famine. Iar parts of the Third most Third World population5 will still World where the average couple is now double again because of the predomi- having five children, halting population nance of young people., - growth will not be easy. Both ingrained Consider Bangladesh, for example: ,childbearingpracticesandyouthhil Though it is much smaller than China, it populations make 'this a difficult task. is one of ttie most crowded lands on The inherent difficulties can be seen in earth. Fertility in Bangladesh is not pro- World Bank populationprojections, jected to fall to replacement level until Table 10-1. Selected Countries That May Have To dopt a One-Child Family Goal to Avoid a Decline in Living Stimdards Assumed Year of ' Projected Reaching Population When' 1982 Replacement Population Stationary State Country Population Fertility Momentum Is Reached (million) Ethiopia 33 2045 1.9 231 Senegal 6 2040 1.9. 36 gladesh 93 205 1.9 454 eria 91 2035 2.0 618 Pakistan 87/ 2035 1.9 377

Uganda 14 2035 2.0 89 Bolivia 6 2030 1.8 22 Ghana 12 2030 2.0' 83 Kenya 18 2030 2.1 153 Tanzania 20 2030 2.0 117

Zaire 31 2030 1.9 172 Zimbabwe. 8 2030 2.1 62 Algeria 2025 2.9 119 cr Iran 41 2020 1.9 159 Peru 17 2020 1.9 49

South Africa 30 2020 1.8 123 Syria 10 2020 2.0 42 India 717 2010 1.7 1,707 Mexico 73 .2010 1.9 199 Philippines 51 2010 1.8 127 +This measures the projected population growth after fertility has fallen to replacementlevel, due to the large number of young people. (For most Third World countries, this is roughly adoubling.) sovact:W9rld Bank, World Developing Report 1984 (New York: Oxford University Press. 1984). 2i 116 (226) Stoic of the Wor 41-19,85 2035, At that point its popVlation would growth comes to a halt. Water is already besopredominantlyyciAthfulthat critically short, not only in Mexico City growth would continue untg.':,cventttally bur in other parts of.central and north- there were 454 million Bangladeshis, ern Mexico as well. With a near tripling five times the 1982 population, of Mexicans in prospect, stringentwater Neighboring India has a more success- rationing would seem inevitable. ful family planningprogram and is ex- Nigeria, Mexico's current population pected to reach replacement-level fertil- buildup is being supported by oilex- ity by 2010, a quarter-century fromnow. ports. Yet, like Bangladesh, it would havea Thesepopulationprojections for key rather youthful population that would Third World countries are the official continue to grow until itcame to a halt World Bank projections, but there isan at 1.7 billion. In effect, India wc!itild add air of unreality about them. Although the equivalent of China's populationto they are sound, in narrow demographic its current numbers. For a country that is terms, they bear little relation to the now losing some 4.7 billion tons of top- deterioration of basic life-supportsys- soil from its cropland eachyear, the tems and to the resulting hunger and prospect of another billion people is dis- deprivation. The key que`stion facingpo- tressing, to say the least.3 litical leaders in these countries isnot Ethiopiawhose starving peoplepro- whether the projections will materialize, vided the most graphic, and continuing but whether population growth will be reminder in late 1984 of Third World checked by vigorous family planning .development problemsis not expected programs or by hunger-induced rises in to reach replacement-level fertility until death rates. 2045. With the momentum inherent in The magnitude of theeffort neededto its age structure, the number of Ethiopi- halt world population growth is outlined ans is projected to continue expanding in a recent study by the PopulatiOn Insti- until it reaches 231 million,seven times tute, which analyzed the costs of provid- the current population andas many peo- ing family planning services in 12 devel- ple as now live in the United States. Ina oping countries that contain closeto two country where soils are so eroded that thirds of the Third World beyond China. many farmers can no longer feed them- (See Table 10-2.) The starting point of selves, this denipgraphic projectionap- the study was the announced population pears unrealisat. goals of the 12 gbvernments.. For Ban- Nigeria, the most populous country in gladesh, Indonesia, and Thailand, the Africa, is in a similar situation. if itat,- official goal is to bring fertility downto tains replacement-level fertility in 2035, replacement level by 2000. India hopes its youthful population will reach 618 to achieve this by 1996. Although other million,morethan now live in all of governments have stated their goals dif- Africa. In some, ways Nigeria is much ferently, the desired reduction- in-popu- more vulnerable' other Third World lation growth is similar. Egypt, forexam- countries- betause-itsextraordinarily ple, wants to, bring its crude birthrate rapid population growth is beingsup- from 37 in 1982 to 20 by the end of the ported bf imports financed almosten- century. Mexico aims for an overall pop- tirely by exports of oil, which will be ulation growth rate of 1 percent in the largely depleted by 2000.4 year 2000, doWn from 2.3 percent in Mexico may also have waited to long. 1984. For Turkey, the end-of-century Its current population of 73 million is goal is three children per couple. projected to reach 199 million before The cost of providing family planning

241 Getting Back on Track Table 10-2. Family Planning Costs In would require a 7 percent annual growth Selected Countries, 1985, With in family planning expenditures, would Projections to 2000 be more than offset by reduced public expenditures in other sectors. Year 2000 Country 1985 1990 2000 savings in education expenditures alone (million dollars) would reach $6 or more per capita in such disparate countries as Sotith Korea 4 56 99 221 Bangladesh and Zimbabwe.n Brazil 195 .126 179 These projected expenditures over 39 80 Egypt 28' the next 15 years are not beyond. reach. 497 806 India 313 Yet they cover only the firstgap in family Indonesia 141 16$ 245 planningthe provision of services. For 21 48 Kenya 9 the typical Third World country,- bridg- second gapthat between 127 mg the Mexico 455 tit desired family size and the mueb smaller 188 Nigeria 33 68 Family required to meet stated national Pakistan 29 68 156 population goalswill mean reducing Thailand 42 47 58 average family size from today's five chil- Turkey 24 37 75 dren to about two by the year 2000. And Zaire 14 30 65 thismay nqt be possible without substantial financial incentives or diSincen- 849 1,281 -2,248 Total fives, such as those now being used in advacs;: Population Institute.Toward Population China to encourage one-child families. Stabilization: Findings Froin Project 1990(New York: Wherever desired family size exceeds 1984). chat which is consistent witI the realization of population goals, substantial ex- services to achieve these goals is sub- penditures or penalties may be required stantial. The study notes that the funds to reconcile the two. would come from four sourcesindivid- ual couples who pay some or all of the expense of Contraceptives they use, private family planning organizations, governments of the countries in question, and the international donor community. RESTORING SOILS The Population Institute calculates that Never before has the conservation of annual expenditures on family planning topsoil been so directly linked to efforts from all sources would climb from $849 to improve human well -being. Few million in 1985 to $2.3 billion'in 2000. countries will succeed in attempts to In these countries couples using family boost domestic food production at the planning services would increase from rate demanded by population growth if 64 million in 1980 to 240 million in' the soil-depletingagriculturecontinues, year 2000, roughly a quadrupling. The forces that create agricultural defi- The-World Bank estimates that adop- cits and push food prices up around the tion of a "rapid". fertility decline goal world are unlikely to be controlled if ,(2,4 children per couple in 2000) would topsoil continues to be degraded and -11 reqt)ire 72 percent of couples to practice lost. Soil conservation saver fertilizer, contraception and an annual: expendi- fuel, add farmers' efforts; providing a ture on family planning of $7,6 billion in foundatn on which stable agricultural 2000. Adoption of such a goal: which systems can be built. Long considered -$ ..028) State of the Worid.1985. 411Kbligationto future generations, soil gests that the contribution of fertilizers conservation must now be seenas a key and energy-intensive inputsto world to a secure livelihood for the present harvests may face diminishing-returns. generation of farmers as well, Asexistingtechnologiesaredis- In an effort to sustain the remarkable seminated more widely outside indus- doubling ofyorld food outputover the trial \countries andas new technologies past generation, farmers extended culti- improve plant performanceor help re- vation onto steeply sloping land tticl induce the toll taken eachyear by insects troduced continuous row croppingon and spoilage,improvements ingrain erosion-prone rolling land. As'a result, yields worldwide are likely, but they will sod erosion has accelerated steadily, and be incremental rather than exponential. it now afflicts industrial and developing Yield-enhancing technologies tendto countries,alie.k The ninefold increase in work best on deep soils and thatpart of fertilizer use and the near-tripling of the their contribution to highercrop pro- world's irrigated cropland since mid- ductivity is forgone on topsoils reduced century have masked the efIcts of soil by erosion. Thus soilconservation erosion on crop productivity. Yetas of makes the most of nets o technologies.6, tr 1984 the loss of topsoil from cropland in Carefulinventoriesof agricultural. excess of new soil formation totaled soils and the pressures placedon them some 25.4 billion tons. (See Table 10-3.) will provide a folindation for better agri- If thii soil depletion through erosionis cultural policies. The 1982 National Re- tot soon checked, pockets of sources 'Inventory in the United States is famine are likely toappear. the most comprehensive national soil The slowdown in the rate of growthin survey ever undertaken. Based on nearly grain yields, described in Chapter 2, one million sample points nationwide, sug- the survey providesa picture of soils Table 10-3. Estimated ExcessiveErosion nearly five times more detailed thanan of Topsoil From World Cropland inventory done in 1977. Preliminaryre- sults ghow that 44 percent of U.S.crop- Total Excessive Country land was losing topsoil in 1982',inexcess Cropland Soil LoSs of its soil-loss tolerance level; and that (million over 90 percent of the soil eroding at acres) tons) excessive rates is on less than'one quar,-- United States 421 1,700 ter of the cropland. These results attest Soviet Union 620 2,500 to the need for corrective action and India 346 4,700 point out where conservation effortscan China 245 4,300 most profitably be focusecr Two other major food-poducing

Total 1 1,632 13,200 countries, China and India. havepro- duced national estimates of excessive Rest of 1,506 12,200 soil loss. A study of China'sresources World .prepared for the Institute of-Scientific and Technical Informationreports that World Total 3,138 25,400 five billion tons of soil and sandare washed into rivers each souacc Authors' estimates based on ,data from year. The gov- national soil surveys, repooted levels of soilloss in ernment of India estimated in 1976 that major crop-growing regions, and indirectevidence soil degradation affected 150million including river sediment loads andreservoir silta- hectares. Soil scientists working with tiOn rates. these figures concluded that thenation's

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'Vetting Back on Track (3 2 9 ) croplands were losing a total of six bil- In the absence pf effective govern- lion tons of soil each year.8 ment policies, the widespread adoption Despite considerable evidence of ex- of conservation tillage methods is tie cessive soil erosion in the Soviet Union, most hopeful sign of progress tow(ard the world's fourth major food producer, stabilizing soils in the United States'. Ac- no comprehensive national survey has cording to a study by the American been undertaken. Perhaps the best indi- Farmland Trust, "on most of the Na- rect evidence of pressures on Soviet soils tion's cropland, conservation tillage is is the 1984 decision to falloW over 21 allthatisnecessary to control ero- million hectares of cropland, the highest sion."' Usually adopted by the fanner level since the sixties. The Soviets have to reduce fuel needs and tillage costs, decided to pull land out of production minimum tillage techniques that leays despite expected grain imports of over crop residues and stubble on the field 50 million tons, the most by any country maximize soil moisture and reduce the in history.) loss of topsoil to wind and water. The growth in U.S. acreage tilled this way has been remarkably steady, increasing al- The widespread adoption of con- most every year since datl; collection servation tillage methods isthe began in 1972. In 1984, it reached 108 most hopeful sign of progress to- million acres, nearly one third of all the land in crops." Unfortunately, mini- \ward stabilizing soils in the United mumtillagemethodsareusually States:- adopted first by more progressive farmers, not those witch the most seriously eroding soils. Some governments have faildd to sup- Inforniatiou on the progress of con- port soil conservation enthusiastically, servation tillagein.- other countries is because they could not see the link be- sparse. There is some indication that tween topsoil losses and land productiv- these techniques are being used in major ity. Fortunately, new analytic tools are crop-growing regionsof theSoviet becoming availableto scientists and Union, though it is difficult to judge how policymakers. A productivity index (PI) widespread they are. And researchers at that calculates the ratio t*tween actual the International Institute of Tropical and potential crop yields at various lev- Agriculture, in Ibadan, Nigeria, are in- els of soil loss has been applied to soils vestigating ways to adapt. conservation in the major crop-producing regions of tillage to tropical soils. If their research the United States and is being tested on results in stable, profitable croppingsys- tropical soils in Hawaii, India, Mexico, terns, it may restore the agricultural sta- and Nigeria. Scientists coordinating the bility that was lost in the humid tropics international work on the productivity as traditional shifting cultivation systems index conclude that"a knowledge of the broke down:13 global distribution of soils combined The United Statesunilaterallyat- with estimates of erosion could, using empts to balance the world's supply and the PI, improve estimites of the global 'Remand' of agricultural commodities by impact of erosion.") Bt the needed in- withholding land from production dur- ventoty of the world's soils will depend ing times of surplus. But little or no on the painstaking collection of data effort has been made to coordinate the over many years, an effort that has barely farm supply management prbgtams t4at begun. divert land with the conservation pro-

24 4 -'

(330) State of the World-1985 ggrams designed to reduce soil erosion. mitted leadership and local participation With farm'program costs out of control in the design of a program that has and public endorsement of traditional demonstrated economic benefits, both farm price-support programs diminish- short-term anitlong-terror. Kenya's pro- ing, Congress may be unable to legislate gram also illuminates the long-term a new farm program in 1985 unless it commitment other governments must directly incorporates soil and water con- begin to make. By 1980, the program servation with supply management and extension staff was able to bring conser- price supports. In effect, public enthusi- vation improvements to 30,000-35,000 / asm for soil conservation could be used farms per year; at that rate, it would take to divert highly eroded cropland to 25 years to stabilize Kenya's soils. Even other uses, such as fuclwood production with more staff, comprehensive soil con- or-grazing. This would bring the produc- servation in Kenya will take at least 15 tion of keyfarni commodities down to a years, a period during which the coun- level that would alloWthigher prices and try's population is expected to nearly revive the profitability of U.S. farms. double," Over the past generation, scores of countrieshave,likeKenya, become Scores of countrieshave,like food-deficit, but few have linked the Kenya, become food deficit, but shortages with the depletion of their soil few ,have linked the shortages.with by erosion. In many cotintries people the depletion of their soil by ero- know that food .prices are rising, but most do not know why. Understanding sion. that lost soil rheans lower inherent productivity, which in turn means costlier food, is an important first step toward an, One Third World country that has for- international soil conservation ethic. mulated an effective response to soil erosion is Kenya. With the assistance of the Swedish International Development Authority, Kenya designed a national program that by mid-1983 had...trained REFORESTING THE EARTH scre 1,300 agriculturalofficers and 3;300 technical assistants in soil and One telling measure of humanity's prog- water mAnagenrient, established 50 tree ress toward sustainability is the extent of nurseries, and distributed 127,000 fruit efforts to plant trees. Tree planting trees and 3.5 million fuel or fodder trees whereforestshave been cleared to farmers. Terraces had been con- reforestationand where noforests structed on 100,000 farms. Farmers have grown beforeafforestationcan themselves had constructed roughly 10,- supply needed resources, restore eco- 000 kilometers of obtoff drains designed logical integrity, and help moderate cli- to reduce the erosive runoff of water. t1 mate change. The Kenyan experience demonstrates Unfortunately, forests face an on- , that a Third World country with limited slaught of pressures that degrade their fiscal resources and a scarcity of local economic and ecological value. Esti- skills can design and implement an effec- mates for 76 tropical countries show that tive national soil and water conservation their forests are being cleared 10 times prngram with a minimum of outside as- more rapidly than they are replanted. sistance. The keys appear to be a com- Over 11 million hectares of tropical for- Getting Back otk'n'ack (231) es6 are being cut each year, a rate of Table 1034. Ratio of Forest Clearing to 0 deforestation that reduces this resource Planting in the Tropics, 1980-85 by 6 percent in a decade," In the industrial .countries, vast, areas of forestsare Clearing to Planting dead and dying in 4,ntrall Europe, as de- Region Ratio scribed in Chapter 5, ana declines in for- Africa 29 to 1 est growth are reported in eastern North America. Acid rain and other air pollu- Latin America tants are stressing once-productive for- 10 to 1 ests beyond their ability to cope. Asia This situation cannot long continue. 5 to 1 Replanting is needed,toensure the pres- Tropics Average ent and future supply of wood products 10 to I for industry and for fuel. Many tropical stivact: United Nations Food and Agriculture Or- ganization, Forest Resources Division, 'cal For- 411P ' countries rely on forest product exports est-Resources. Forestry Paper 30 (Rome: 1982). fordesperately needed foreignex- change. Industrial countries still depend on wood as'a raw material, and theyoburn cessful effort to reduce pressures on for- increasing amounts as fuel in highly effi- ests,is actually a legacy of long-sus- cient wood-fired boilers.Developing tainedoverharvesting.What .tlittle countries like Brazil are also rely* unexploited natural forest remains in more on .wood, which they convert to the region is inaccessible, which slows e charcoal used,to smelt steel. All the tra- the rate of cutting; meanwhile,severe ditional demar\ds for wood loductsare and disruptive wood shortages have being compounded: The:umber of rural households throughout the Third prompted the world's most ambitious World that depend on fuelwood for tree planting campaigns, incite those cooking end heat continuesto rise; in China and South Korea." affordable' substitute fuelsare not being Perhaps more important' than introduced fast' enough in Third World regional disparities in rates, treesare cities; and moderniiation efforts like rarely planted where forests are being China's,: must supply vast amounts of cut. Nearly 1.5 million hectares of tropi- papel for education and communica- cal forests are cut annually in Brazil, tion, as well as wood for construction largely in the unique rain foresti of Ama- attd energy, if aspirations are to be met.. zonia, yet the hundreds of thousands of But tree planting projects are still.too hectares of plantations,eStablished each fe,t and far between to meet theseeco- year are concentrated far away in the nomic needs. All khe plantation for in- southern states of Minas Gerais and dustrial use analfuelwood plus all the Parana. The same sitsueNion prevails, in natural regrowth ark far from compen- Peru and Venezuela.' sating for the convehion of forests to The largest 'share of plantations estab- grassland, cropland, or degraded scrub. lished so far have been planted to meet In thetropics, where the ratio of replant- ind_nstrial needs, ranging from saVilogs, ing to deforestation is especially impor. and veneer logs to wood pulp for the tangonly 1 hectare of forest is planted paper industry. Brazil's 2 million hect- for each 10 hectares cleared. Different ares of industrial plantations are ex- regions have markedly different rates of pected to double by the end of thecen- forest restocking.(Sec Table10-4.) tury. lh India, over two thirds of (he 5.2 Asia'S low ratio, which looks like a sue= million hectares planted, between 1951 (23.) Stilt of the1Vorld-1985 and 1980 were industrial phttiOns. lings have been distributed by the Throughoutthetropicalcottries, eminent, tree farming has bteome the more than half the 1.1 million hec main source of income for some farmers. of plantations established each year pro- In 1980, the 50 'million seedlings dis- duce wood for industrial uses.'' tributed by the forestry department, Although the spread of plantations to enough to plant 25 thousand. hectares,' fulfill industrial wood needs is encourag- fell far short of the demand. In 1983, the ing., progress toward providing sufficient state distributed 200 million seedlings. .wood for household cooking and heat- Even this is not enough, however. The ing needs is far more sporadic. Although Indian Forest Service estimates that the the world is not about. to run out of for- number of farmers engaged intree ests, filehvood sho'rtages are still the growing must increase more than twerp most widely suffered material scarcity: tyfold to ensure the wood fuel needs of Fuelwood supply and demand remain Gujarat's population. Although Guja- 'badly Aut of equilibrium, and unmet -de- rat's program has been criticized for its mand translates directly into unsustain- social inequities and its almost. exclusive able pressures on natural woodlands. A reliance on eucalyptus (which can de- secure supply of domestic fuel in devel- plete water supplies), it has created an oping countries can only 13C provided if interest,in tree planting that will almost- familiesthernselvesare 'engagedin certainly spill over to other states. growing and caring for the trees they will Nepal has also mounted a vigorous later burn. campaikri to replant its 'denuded hillsides by giving its people the means to. grow trees for themselves, Tree nurser- An effort to reclaim five million hect- ies and plantations have been estab- ares of degraded land in India-wiih lished in 350 villages, from which a variety of fruit, fodder, and filelwood species agroforestry profrcts could create are distributed. Technical assistance and jobs for two million people. funding for the program- have come- from the World Bank, several United.. Nations agencjes, and a handful of na- antations have a part to play in sup- tional oand priCate aid agencies.,Tfie out- plying this fuelwood, but they currently come of Nepal's program will be the fall far short of the task. In India, only 12 focus of attention throughout South 'percertt of the 3.2millionhectes Asia, since the stability of forests and wa- planted during 30 years supply fuel- tersheds in the Himalayas affects not just wood. According to the Food and Agri- the Nepalese 'but the tells of millions of culture Organization, 21 tropical coun- farm families downriver on the vast tries had no plantations for household plains of the Ganges." ibelw-ood as recently as 1980, and 0 oth- Where successful reforestation pro- ers listed lets than a quarter oftheir grams have taken root,- they invariably plantations for pon- industrial purposes. meet a wide range of social needs. In Even these proportions' can deceive: several regions, such efforts have helped Most of Brazil's so-called non-industrial reditce. uneMployment. In Min4s Gerais plantations supply not household needs and Espiritu Santo, Bra'zil, 100,00? hect- but wood for charcoal used by the steel ares of tree plantations all put in by industry.20 hand each year; otter labor- intensive A few, successful efforts do provide planting projects have been developed in some encouragement, however. In the Colombia, the Congo, Guatemala, Hon- Indian state of Gujarat, where free seed- duras, the Philippines, and Venezuela. 24 I Getting Back on Track X33) Combining agriculture with forestry in most rapid success with a national pro- replarkaig schemes can boost employ- gram may be South Korea. Beginning in ment aid enhaiice farm productivity; the the early seventies; South Korea sought

U.S.: _Office of Technology Assessment to restore its tree cover. By the end of estimates that an effort to reclaim live. '19 some 643,000 hectares of village million h res of degraded land- in woo lots had been planted in fast-grow- India. wi roforestry projects could ing pines, most of them on wasteland on create jo r two million peoille." hillsides' that had been deforested over The ecOlogical 'benefits of intact for- the years. In just a kw years, trees were ests also argue for a stepped-up planting established on an area over half that in effort, Trees are essential in stabilizing rice, the country's food stapl." soils and water supplies. Forests in. the In Europe, Italy has engaged in exten- Himalayas, for example, are the master sive reforestation in recent years, much link in a chain etween the monsoon and of it on marginal cropland in hilly areas millions of farers vulnerable to floods that had been abandoned. Recent esti- on the plain of the Ganges and Brah- mates indicate that 2-3 million hectares maputra river§. More immediately, land- of land are beinganted in trees in an slides from slopes made unstable.by the effort to avoid ex soil erosion. joss of trees directly endanger mountain This newly foresee I acreage is at least coinmunities. And hydrological disrup- three times as arge as that of South tions where trees have been removed, Korea.26 ' ranging from heavy spring flooding to Though net, nal mass.planting.efibrts reduced water flow during dry seasons, can replace the s ood that is lost as natu- make rural life more tenuous and filet ral woodlands al-cut or degraded, sin.: the exodus to Third World cities. gle-species plyings, whether in planta- The few countries that have launthed tions or on degraded land, are no more national mass planting 'campaigns have akin to natural forests than cornfields done so 41 restore degraded. environ- are to the tallgrass prairie. The many val- ments. In China, official goals call for ues of intact natural forestswildlife increasing forest cover from 12 permit habitat, aesthetic enjoyment, aAnatural to 20. percent. of the country's territory bank for genetic resources, and an arena by the year 2000. The long:Tun target is in which evolutioncan continuesimply to restore trees to one third of Chine's are irreconcilable with intensive man- territory. To accompliSh the first objec- agement. Forest resources for the future tive, the Chinese hope to plant trees on should be a mosaic of single-use planta- 67 million hectares, an effort that will tions, multiple-use natural' forests, and approximately quadruple the Current undisturbed stands. Protection annual planting effort of all the'countries and innovative management of natural in the tropics combined.. Geographer forestsmustcompleMentplanting Vaclav Smil, who has written extensively efforts. or Chinese environmental issues, be- An especially important contribution lieves these targets can 'only be reached of healthy forests to humanity's future with a combination of aerial seeding and may be their climatic *laic that is just mass planting on an unprecedented being recognized. Forests turn carbon scale. The responsibility system, which from the atmosphere ii)to wood and foli- has made trees productive assets for pri- age, but this 'natural accumulation has vate profit in the Chinese, countryside, been reversed in our century, Recent re- may help sustain the momentum of offi- search reveals that the clearing of forests cial efforts." for agriculttire or grazing, for example' The country that has achieved the releases enormous amounts of carbon 248 -' (234) State of theitiorld--1985 into the atmosphere. George Woodwell arcs of tree farms may stand in tropical' and his colleagues at the Marine Biologi- countries by the turn of the century. cal Laboratory at Woods Hole, Massa- Nearly 2millionadditional hectares chusetts, used several methods to esti- would be planted each year, roughly mate the net release of CO2 from forest double present plantings. China's na- cutting and concluded that the world's tional reforestation strategy callsfor forests currently release between 1.8 bil- planting 3-4 million hectares of trees lion and 4.7 billion tons of carbon each each year. Coupling such rfforts with year. The higher estimate is close to the those in the tropical countries might in- amount of carbon discharged annually crease the annual share of carbon ab- by fossil fuels, roughly 4.8 billion tons. sorbed by new trees to 6 percent of the Even more startling, Woodwell found carbon released to the atmosphere. If that if forest clearing continues to inother countries join China, Italy, Nepal, creaseinproportiontopopulation and South Korea and begin planting Ai growth, the rarly loss of carbon from ,a large scale, the share could be even forests will reach between 7 billion at(1 higher.28 9 billibn tons early in the next century ronically, the burning of fossil fuels probably surpassing the amount from may well constrain forest's ability to fossil Mels.27 offset-these fuels' effects on the composi- Although in principle the CO2 prob- tion of the atmosphere. Acid rainand air lem is controllable, the world's. forests pollutants are killing forests in central and tree plantations are not'now being Europe and apparently reducing the managed in a way that recognizes their growth of forests throughout astern rolein CO2 habilitation. The ,total North America, as pointed out in Chap- amount, of carbon taken up by treesdur- ter 5. In the southeastern United States, ing afforestation and natural .regenera- growth declines in economically impor- tion of cut forests is only a tinylraction tant lobfolly and shortleaf pine have al- of the amount released by cleared wood- ready prompted the timber industry to lands and, fossilInds. To slow the adopt more-efficient forest management buildup of CO2 and forestall climatic practices.Anything'. thatdiminishes changes, the deforestation of the earth growth rates also reduces the amount of must be reversed. Irvigorous effbrts are carbon trees take up. Acidification and made, the contribution of carbon from pollutantstress, already reportedin fotlests can be brought under control. At China and Brazil,could undermine the same time, reforestation and affores- hopes that tree -planting in the Third tation, by taking up carbon from the air World can help stabilize the world's cli- and turning it into wood and leaves, can Mate. skim same of the COz released by fossil Reforestation and attempts to reverse fuels And transform a problem into a deforestation deserve greater interna- productive resource. Coupled with at- tional support and an increased commit- tention t.o energy efficiency and develop- nent from political leaders if these ment of renewable energy sources, an efforts arc to provide .secure livelihoods ambitious replanting effort cOuldfgo a and more-abundant resources. Coun- long way ,toward restraining the forces tries such as Brazil must reappraise offi- most likely to drive climatic change. cial policies that e courage the estab- More tropical plantations are being lishment of wood -Mations on existing established each year in the early eight- cropland while viding government ies than were planted in the late seven- support and in entives for Agricultural tiesan encouraging sign. I* rate of settlement anforest clearing in frontier incre4We continues, over 40 million 441, rain forests tat: cannot sustain farming

248 Getting Back on Track (335 ) over the long run. International lending breaking the historical -lockstep relation agencies must avoid similar contradic- between energyuseand economic tions in their lending, policies and re,. growth. Progress has been particularly4 Am Ole their priorities. Agriculture re- impressive with oil. From mid-century ceives20 tunesmorefundsfrom until the early seventies,,ithe amount of internationa' aid agencies than forestry oil used per $1,000 of g-rOss world prod- does. Although the World Bank spent over $1 million on reforestation projects uct increased from 1.33 barrels in 1950 between 1968 and 1980, it financed at to over 2J barrels. (See Table 10 -5.) many times that level projects ranging Table 10-5. Oil Intensity of World from darns to road construction that de- Economic Output, 1950-84 stroyed forest reAources. Recent initiatives provide a glimmer Oil Used of hope. In the Indian state of Uttar Pra- Per $1,000 desh, the World Bank is funding a water- Year of Output' shed reclamation project that will restore trees and rrrace fields on 312,000 (barrels) hectares. Coupled witti policies that slow 1950 L33 population growth, efforts like this tore- 'store forests can enhance the resources 1955 ,Y4 1.46 and environmental stability that make other improvements in human well- 1960 _1.67 being possible.ao A 1 .49 1965 '4. I. 1.90-

4 1970 2.17 1971 2.21 AN ENERGY EFFICIENT 1972 2.23 1973 .2.275R WORLD 1974 2.13 Contemporary interest in energy effi- 1975 2.05 ciency can be traced to the oil price, in- 1976 creases of 1973 and 1979: Each price 2.15 1977 2.16 hike brought with it the need to recalcu- 1978 2.14 , late_die optimum investment in energy 1979 2.15. efficiency. If oil priced at $12 a barrel justified the installation of four inches of 1980 2.05 attic insulation, for example, then oil at 1981 1.93 $30 might justify six or eight inches of 1982 1.80 insulation. Investment's in conservation 1983. 1.80 that were uneconomical when oil was 1984 1.78 pegged at $2 a barrel might be highly profitable at $30 a barrel. In addition to 'In 1980 dollars. souacis: Worldwatch Institute estimates based on economic, and national security con- data from American Petroleum Institute, basicPe- cerns, two major new reasons argue for troleum Data Book(Washington, D.C.: 1984); Her- investing in energy efficiency: acid rain bert R. Block,The PlanetaryProductin1980 and rising atmospheric CO2. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State. 1981); and international Monetary Fund,World Ec- Over the past several. years the world's onomic Outlook(Washington, D.C.: May 1984 and energy efficiencyhasrisensteadily, September 1984). 250, (136) State of theI1forld-1985 After 1979} however,thisfigure ratio of nearly two to one between the dropped sharply, falling from 2.16 bar most and the least efficient national au- rels to 1.78 barrels in 1984. This reduc- tomobile fleets. For all three of these key 4tion in oil intensity is a r4lt of both sectors, merely getting the rest of the greater efficiency in oil use Mad the sub- world up to the average level of the most stitution of other sources of energy efficient country would sharply reduce coal, renewable sources,, and nuclear world energy consumption. There is no power. reason, however, to limit future gains in Although the world gains in raising efficiencyto those already achieved, energy efficiency have been impressive, since even the most efficient countries they have been rather uneven: Some are employing some outdated inefficient I countrieshave, achiekdspectacular technologies. gains, others haveade little progress. Efforts to increase energy efficiency,, These variations c-an be seen by compar- come in stages. Alter the first oil price ing the energy efficiency of stemaking, increase in late 1973, many homt'owners v aluminum production, and ao trans- inindustrial countries responded by port. (See Table 10-6.) In the t two of turning .their thermostats down. The these basic economic activities, Italy is second stage involves steps that require the world leader. In steel production, somewhat more time, such as the addi- India narrowly edges out China as the tion' of-wall and ceiling insulation. Over least efficient and uses 2.3 times as much the long term, the basic principles of en- energy as Italy to produce a ton of steel. ergy architecture Cal be employed to For aluminum, the variations among produce highly energy-efficient homes. major producing countries are some- Canada has proved that commercially at- what less. Canada, endowed with cheap tractive homes can be built..that are so hydropower, is the least efficient. Italy is energy-efficient they do not need fur- half again as efficient as Canada. naces: They are warmed by the heat gen- With auto fuel -efficiency, the differ- erated by household appliances, by the ence between the most and least efficient body heat of their residents, and, in national automobile fleets is wide. japan times of uncommonly low temperatures, is the most efficient, obtaining an aver- by a backup electric baseboard heater." age of 31 miles per gallon.. Not surpris-. A staged approach also applies in the inly, the United States brings up the transportation system. At first attention rear, with 16 miles per gallon, giving a focuses on the establishment of fuel effi-

Table 10-6. Range of Energy Efliciett7 in Key Sector* of 111ajgr National Economies, irca 19$l

. Most Efficient Least Efficient ftio of Country Country HighesN.D1Lowest

Steel Production Italy India 11

(gigajoules/ton) 17.6 .41.0 2.3 to 1 Aluminum Production Italy Canada (thousand kwh/ton) 13.3 20.0 1.5 to 1 Auto Fuel Efficiency Japan United States (miles per gallon) 31.0 16.0 1.9 Co 1 SOURCE: Drawn from Tables 7-2, 7-3; and 7-4 in Chapter 7. -

r- - 1_ a

64(titig Bark on track (237) ciency standards for new automobile 's, prohibitive, leaving energy efficiency such as those adopted in the United and aswitchtorenewable energy States to raise new-car fuel efficiency sources as the principal alternatives. from 14;miles per gallon in 1975 to 27.5 miles' Ker gallon by 1985. With the longer term in mind, urban areas con- centnue on developing efficient public transport systems to partially replace the RENEWABLE ENERGY: lessefficient automobile. Lastly,the focus turns to designing communiti% in SURGING FORWARD such a way that automobiles are not Econoihic forces, environmental con- needed. This obviously ' requires more cerns, and technological advances have time and a more sophisticated urban launched the transition from fossil fuels planning than has typically been the case in the past. to renewable energy .sources. The key question is whether the process is proceeding rapidly enough to minimize ecoii nomic stresses andtoavoid fossil-fuel. Commercially attractive homescan inducedclimatechangeand the be built that are so enerky-efficient wholesale destruction of forests by acid they do not need furnaces. rain. Thetransition can best be seen in the contrasting trends of various energy The potential for boosting the energy sources between 1979 and 1984. (See 'efficiency of the world economy over the Table 10-7.) The production of oil; the long term has scarcely been tapped. world't leading source of energy, has de7 From a purely economic point of view, dined by 3 percent annually over the last there are vast opportunities to invest in five years. The use of wood, ranked energy efficiency that would yield anon- fourth in the world energy budget after nual return of 15 to 50 percent on capi- the three fossil fuels, has been expand- tal. External or indirect benefits make' ing by nearly 2 percent per year. Hydro- the return on investment in energy effi- power, second to wood among renew- ciency difficult to calculate. For.example,* able energy sources, has expanded by what costs should be assigned to the for- some ,3 percent per year. Together, ests being destroyed by.acid rain and to wood acrd hydropower will be supplying the economic modifications that will ulti- more energy than natural gas by 1990. mately be required by CO2-induced cli- Fortunately; in terms of their connectionL. mato -thalige? Although the economic to acid rain and CO2 generation, nether costs of forest destruction are already coal nor natural gas. is growing very. ra- evident in countries like Czechoslovakia, pidly. West Germany, and Poland, calculations The spectacular rates of growth have on how much to invest in pollution con- come from the, newer sources of renew- trol versus. ergy efficiency are still a able energy. Wind electricity, for exam- Matter of te. There has been even ple, has been nearly doubling each year less co Sid on of how much to invest for the bet several years, starting from aA in titerofncy to minimize a global negligible base. And from a somewhat armi Using exhaust controlsto larger base, geothermil has increased at discharge in the atmosphere 15 percent per year. Although these high be4n rejected becausecosts are rates of growth obviously cannot be sus- (238) Stateofthe 11 '(r/d-1985 ''Table 10-7. World Growth inEnergy burning is-- -the. eluivaleiit of ov r 100 Production by Source, 1979-84 million barrels of od per yearit iover- shadowed by the industrial use o fuel- MUM! wood,Notwithstandingtherecent Rate of growth in fuelwood use in the United Energy Source Growth States, Canada, and Scandinavia, there is (percent) .a vast unrealized potential for further ex- Major Sources pansion in these countries and in the So viet Union.12 Oil 3 '1 he use of geothermal energy,a vast Coal +1 source that is continuously renewed by Natural Gas +4 pressure and radioactivity within the Wood +2 earth, is expanding in both industrial Hydropower +3 and developing countries. It is used directly for hot baths, residential heating, Minor Sources' end industrialprocess heat and indirectly to prodiice electricity. In Hun- Nuclear Electricity +9. gary, 70 hectares of greenhouses pro- Geothermal Electricity +15 ducewinter vegetables with hotwa drawn Wind Electricity +75 from underground sources. Corpora- Alcohol Fuels +30 tions in the United States, the Philip- Solar Panels +20 pines, and New Zealand have sited industrial plants astride geothermal fields 'Sources supplying less than 3 percent of world energy output. in order to tap this subterranean source souact: Worldwatch Institute estimates based on of heat directly. World geothermal elec- data from American Petroleum Institute, U.S. De- trical capacity, as noted in Chapter 8,is partment of Energy. California Energy Commis- expected to surpass 10,000 megawatts.. sion, and unofficial sources. before 1990. The exploration and engineering experience gained during the tained- indefinitely, they do indicate the eighties is setting the stage for massive potential for renewables to become im- expansion during the nineties, mainly in portant energy sources well. before the the geothermal-rich countries that ring century is out. the Pacific plus several Mediterranean The progress on developing several of countries, such as Italy and Turkey.39 these sources is detaled in Chapter 8. In wind energy, the lead has been And, as indicated there, three other taken by California, where there are now forms,,of renewable energy-,wood fuel, several thousand commercial-scale wind geothermal, and wind powerthat were generators. producing electricity on wind covered in State of the World-19$4 con- farms, as documented i1 Chapter 8. The tinue to hold considerable potential. In key to this breakthrough is not a unique contrast to hydropovr, where the un- wind endowment, for there are many developed potential is concentrated in such sites around the world,- but the the Third World, vast underused forests availability of both state and federal tax grow in the northern tier of industrial credits for renewable energy develop- countries. In the United States, for ex- ment and a forward-looking state energy. ample, the residential use of firewood commission. With the technologies now has increased some 10 percent per year being perfected in California, prime between 1973 and 1983. Impressive wind sites throughout the world will one though this level of residential wood day be converted into wind farms,

rt, /(..% Gelling BackonTrack (230 As the world moves beyond its heavy rently gives it so many energy options dependence on oil, .shifting to a variety will disappear. of renewable sources, the outlines of the Under the prc\ssure of near total de- new energy economy are beginning to pendence on imported oil and mounting emerge. Successful strategies will be tail- foreign debt, the Philippines Govern- ored to each country's indigenousen- ment designed an aipbitious t10-year dowment of renewable resources. Soe program aimed at reducing oilContri- may rely heavily on one locally abundat t bution to the nationalenergy'btldgct form of renewable energy. Othersma from 91 percent to 56 percent by 1989, have highly diversified renewableenergy Although coal and nuclear powerare ex- economies. Nepal, Norway, and Para- pected to account for some 15 percent of guay, for example, all richly endowed its total commercial energy use by then, with hydroelectric potenliat- relativeto renewable sourcesincluding hydro- population, could rely hilly oh hydroelectric, geothermal electric, woody agri- power. heavily forested countries, in cultural wastes, timber industry wastes, contrast, could fashion an energy strat- and fuel alcohol from sugarcanecould egy centered on wood. For some coun- push the renewable energy share of total tries, the United States among them, the,. energy use to one third by the end of the wisest cout'se is to develop the entire decade.54 panoply of renewable energy sources In the industrial world, to cite one wood, windpower, hydropower, rooftop leader in this field, Canada is investing collectors, energy crops/geothermal en- heavily in development of its renewable ergy, and photovoltaics. energy resources, particularly wood and In developing an economy sustained hydropower. Wood, long a principal fuel with renewable energy, Brazil isemerg- for Canada's export-oriented forestpro- ing as an early leader, focusing on the ductsindustry,isnow being used development of its vast hydroelectric throughout the country. Canada's ear- potential, the use of wood as an indus- lier investment in hydropower develop- trial and residential energy source, anda ment is Ids() now paying off as' it exports. fast-advancing agriculturally based al- surplus electricity to several New Eng- cohol-fuels program. With a pauper's land states and New York.36 endowment of fossilfuelsandits To speed the transition to renewable once-ambitious nuclear pr.ogram all but energy, there is-a need for research sup- abandoned, the country is buildingan in- port, information dissemination, tax industrial economy that will be one of the centives, grants, and other inducements first to "be based ion' renewableenergy. that reflect the benefits not only of less- -14 To maximize the chancel of success, ening dependence on imported oil but Brazil could rely less on the automo- also of reducing acid rain. As of:the mid- bile and more on electrically powered eighties only a few national governments intraurban and inner-city rail systems. are making a speedy transition from fos- This, combined with a program to boost sil fuelsto renewable energy. Legislation automotive fuel efficiency, would re- and financial incentives will play'an im- duce liquid fuel requirements and thus portant role. For example, the U.S. Pub- lessen the competition between the trans licUtility Regulatory Pellicles Act of port and. food sectors for food-produc- 1978, which requires utilikiesto buy ing resources. Unfortunately, if Brazil power generated by small sytems at the does not act more effectively to curb avoided cost, has created a multitude of itspopulation growth,the favorable Opporamiti'es for renewableenergy de- resource/population balance that cur- velopers. The support of international

254 (240) State of theWorldI985 development agencies, led by the World tion from fossil fuels to renewable en- Bank, will also be a key factor. Develop- ergy sources, a potentially catastrophic ment of hydropower, for example, has warming of the earth can be avoided. expanded at some 4 percent annually The urgency of responding to this par- over die past five years partly because of ticular threat cannot be overestimated. World Bank efforts to help Thira World The incentives need not be massive, but countries reduce their dependence on they need to be :substantial enough to imported oil. bring about the transition in time to In an ironic twist, Third World debt is avoid forest destruction and a wrenching spurring the global shift to renewable climate change. energy. Since such resources are largely indigenous, the outlays of foreign exchange are often nonexistent or negligible, limited to those for imported equipment or technical advice. In addition, RECYCLING MATERIALS many renewable energy sources are virtually inflation-proof. Once the initial in- The shift. from a throwaway society .to a vestment is made, the cost of running a recycling one can help restore A broad- hydroelectric dam or a solar water based gain in living standards in several heater isindependent of rising Mel ways. The "virtue of necessity" of recy- prices. cling was documented in State of the World-I984: On the environmental side, the reduction in _energy use lower car- \ Third World debt is spurring the bon dioxide-emissions, acid rain, %nd the environmentaldisruptionassa;Ciated ' global shift to renewable energy. with mining larger quantities of virgin ores. Where paper and cardboard are conc6ned, recycling takes some pres- The reinforcing role that renewables sure off forests. Economically, recycling can play in the movement toward sus- saves energy, reduces the area required tainability is an important one. Asde- for landfill, and also lowers the costs of scribedearlierinthischapter,the garbage collection and disposal. From a reforestation that is badly needed in social point of4view, recy0ing canyeduce many areasin part, to 'provide wood litter.. And because it saves energy and for cookirig and heating in the Third capital` while creating. jobs,itiswell WOrld---4ill yield considerable ecologi- adapted to. be global economic futtire-:-- cal benefits in terms of stabilizing soil where capital and energy will be costly and water resources. In employment and labor relatively abundant. terms, too, renewables are attractive. In national security terms, at recycling Most require lesscapital and create society is less vulnerable to disruptions more jobs than fossil Inds or nuclear of raw materials.flows. Perhaps more im- power do. In this respect the timing of portant,countriesin energy the transition could not be more fortui- have an interest in recycling because it tous for Third World planners, coining reduces energy use. Japan understands asit does when record numbers of this: It increased the share of materials young people will be entering the job recycled from 16 percent in.,I974 to 48 market. percent in 1978. This phenomenal in- If governments formulate a package of crease, unmatched by any other country, policies that will speed the tranii- was designed to lower oil imports." Gelling pack onTrack (341) For the world. as awhole, recycling recycling program. Its voluntarypro- . rates in the mid-eighties are rather low, gram was launched on Noveniber1, typically not much more thana quarter, 1983. In the first month 476tons of refl although for aluminum the figuremay getable materialspaper,cans, glass, now be close to, one third. They vary and 'oilwere collected; the second and widely among countries, Some Third third months netted 512 and 600tons. World countriesrecycleextensively. At the start, one house out of six was Garbagedisposalsitessurrounding participating, but withina year it is ex- Third World cities are carefullygone pected to reach one out of four. Fornow over by hand to retrieve any useful mate- the city subsidizes the pickup at therate rialpaper goes to thepaper mill, bones of $10-17 per ton. Once theprogram is to the glue factory, and rags to-a furni- well established, however, the recycling ture factory for use in upholStery. In so- firms wilt have to earn their income from cieties plagued with unemployment, this sale of the materials they pick up." approach makes sense. Among the in- Machida, Japan, a city-of 60,000peo- dustrial countries, the highest recycling ple, has a "Recycling Culture Center" rates are usually kund in densely popu- that may be the world's most sophis- lated- countries that importenergy and ticated recycling program. Its executive raw materials, suchas the Netherlands director, Muneo Matsumoto, explains and Japan. the Center's name: "Merely colleCting The energy savings aregreatest with and processing garbage does 'lot solve aluminum, where recyclingrequires the problem. A lot of waste todaycomes only 6 percent as mushenergy as alumi- from our modern culture, WWI itsem- num produced from bauxite. Iron and phasis on mass produced pEiSticpro- steel recycling uses roughly 35 percent ducts and packaging. We 'Ave to change of, the energy required to produce these that culture from the very roots. We materials from iron ore. Withpaper, the have to reconsider our entireway of life savings are 20-40 percent. For glass, the because that is the only way you reduce U.S. Environmental ProteCtion Agency garbage. Waiwanted our citizens to think estimates that national returnable bever- about his Mncept, so we decided touse age container legislation would save 46 the word culture in our official name." In million barrels of oil per dear--- roughly .additionto the usual separation of 10 days of imports at 1984 levels. Some materials' for recycling, the Center also of this saving has of course been realized -renovates furniture, appliances, cloth- already, since nine states, hometo ing, and bicycles, which are sold at bar- roughly a fifth of all Americans, have gain prices or given to the needy. If local passed returnable depoSit legislation." regulations can be modified, the garbage No country has a materss recycling residue, which is now incinerated, will system nationwide. Several national gov- eventually be used to cogenerate elec- ernments have taken stops to facilitate tricity and steain heat, with the latter recycling, but comprehensiveprograms piped to nearby homes, offices, and are largely in the hands Of local govern- other facilities." ments, either at the municipal or the Several forces are driving-. individual state level. The impressive systems in a households, businesses, and comtnuni- number -of cities were described in. last ties toward comprehensive recycling, year's State of the World. Since then, Min- not least of which is the rising cost of neapolis, a city of dope to 400,000peo- energy. Another is the rising cost cif ple, bWme the largest Americancom- landfillformunicipAgovernments, munity tostart .asource separation ()which is what led Minneapolis tocon-

256 (242.) State of the World -1985 sideritssource-separatidnrecling scrapthat will be recycled. As the other program. Between 1980 and 19 city principal steelmaking technology, the officials expected the cost of tras Is- basic oxygen fuirce, typically uses posal to pearly quadruple. (See 1 I:4e some 38 in scrap, half or more of 10-8) iktrth)the greater distante toe- U.S. s output in 1990 will be from maining landfill sites and the rising co is recyd materials. of ensuring environmental safety ad, other technology that is facilitating posal sites are boosting landfill costs. etal recycling is the reverse vending machine, which dispenses coins in return for empty alumintim cans. With Minimills are thriving in the United scrap aluminum now worth some $500 States at a time when the more con- per ton, the collection of aluminum cans ventional segment of the steel in- has become seconomicallyattractive. Sweden, the world leader in this technol- dustry is in the doldrums. ogy, plans to have 10,000 reverse vend- ers in operation by 1990, recycling an estimated 97 percent of all aluminum A number of technological advances cans. As of the end of 1984 there were are facilitating materials recycling. One some 2,200 of thesemachines in opera- is the electric arc furnace, a steel-making tion in the United States:40o technology that relies almost exclusively As the environmental and economic 'on scrap metal. Usually relatively small by steel industry standards, these mini- 1 mills are thriving in the United States at Table 10 -9. U.S. Steel Produced in

S a time When the more conventional seg- Electric Arc Furnaces, 1960-84, With ment of the steel industry is in the dol- Projections to 1990 drum's. With lower material costs and with far lower energy requirements, the Annual Stkare of Total steel minimills tire steadily increasing Year Output Steel Production their market share. (See Table 10-9,) In (million tons) (percent) 1960 electric arc furnaces accounted for 2 percent of U.S. steel output. By 1985 1960 8.4 8.4 this is expected to 'reach 32 percent and by 1990, 36 percent. This percentage 1 13.8 10.5 thus indicates the minimal share of U.S. 19 20.1 15.3 Table 10-8. Cost of Burying a Ton of Trash.in Landfill for the City of 1975 22.7 19.4 Minneapolis, With Projections to 1990 1980 31.2 27.9 Year Cost Per Ton 1981 34.1 28.3 .(dollars) 1982 23.2 31.1 1983- 25.1 31.5 1980 I I 1984 33.0 33.2

1984 23 1990 43.4 36.0 40 souacts: American Iron and Steel Institute; data 1996 for 1990 from Jack K. Miller, "Steel SoURCE; Minneapolis City Government.. &loth* Amerimti, May 1984.

i e Getting Backan Track 34 3 ) reasons for recycling become more com- and bewildering macroecononay."43 pelling, national and local governments Apart from being an obvious integral may require it. The city of Islip, New part of any society that is sustainable York, whose garbage dumps were pol- over the long term, the rate art which luting underground water with toxic countries move toward comprehensive chemicals, was ordered by the courts to recycling will affect--1Tth their living adopt a mandatory resource recycling standards atheir competitive position program. The Netherlands and Japan in the inte,rational marketplace. With have both introduced some regulations, energy becoming scarce, recycling can although neither goveliment has come provide a higher standat'd of living at any close to mandating a comprehensive givenlevelof energy consumption: materials recycling program. One prob- Those national economies that recycle lem faced by recyclers almost every-. will be more energy-efficient and hence where isprice instability. The pt'ice more competitive in world markets than swings in the market to4ecycled materi- thosethatcontinueto throw!Away als typically exceed those of the business materials used just once. cycle itself; To overcome this the Dutch government has established a price stabilization reserve for paper, under which the government buys paper, when the price drops below the established price and then resells it when the market price COMPLEXITY, CHANGE,.. AND rises again.41 LEADERSHIP Public interest groups often initiate the establishment of recycling programs. Times of rapid change put a premium on In some communities inthe United leadership. During the long stretches of States and Japan, citizens' groups are di- history when social change was so slow rectlyinvolvedineducating people as to be scarcely perceptible there was about the'social advantages of recylling; little need for leadership. Maintaining in others they actually collect materials. the status quo does not impose the heavy In Boulder, Colorado, for example, vol- demands on leaders that change does. unteer groups involve themselves in the Change reqUires both intellectual and' recycling program on weekends to raise political innovation. Intellectual leader- funds. A similar approitchis used in ship identifies the need for change and Japan where student as.Vtiations take determines WI what directiotk society partinrecycling progiiims toraise should move, Political leaders devise the money.42 ' policies and shape the priorities to move One benefit of source-separation recy- society in this direction. cling programs is the sense of participa- More often &an not insight comes tion they can provide people with. As from outside 4.government and usually Brian Hammond put it in theNew Scien- from people rather than' institutions ilkin anincreasinglyimpersonal from people such as Rachel Carson or world in which political and economic C.E. Schumacher, Duiihk. the early six- events seem as arbitrary and unalterable ,ties Rachel Cason awakened the world as the weather, many of us feel remote to the ticks Al chemical pollution as-: from the real levers of power, Arthe in- sociated with modern industrial society. dividual level recycling sys,tems give us a A decade later E.', Schumacher effec- chance to help to exercise control over at tively challenged the "bigger is better". least one section of the whole compleic mode of technological thinking that wits

V 258 (244) State of the World-1985 guiding the evolution of industrial poci- Scientists, not politicians, are,most eties.44 likely to forge the institutions needed to confront these issues. The international scientific community has decades of Times of rapid(1 change put a pre- experience investigating problems that are so large-scale and so long-term that mium on leadership. only cooperative efforts yield useful information.In September 1984thi InternationalCouncilofScientific More recently, a group of scientists Unions proposed a new International .led by astronomer. Carl Sagan and biolo- Geosphere-Biosphere Program that will gist Paul Ehrlich have altered the way we encompass the world's climate, bios- think about nuclear war, Their research phere, and the interactions of biological on the climatic arid biological conse- and geological cycles. The project was quences of such a war led to a national inspired as much by a sense of -urgency, conference, articles published in Science about the scale of problems and the magizine, and a worldwide debate. need for international cooperation in ad- Their findings, largely confirmed by So- dressing them as by the quest for knowl- viet scientists as-well as the U.S. Defense edge for its own sake.47 Department, are revolutionizing think- New internationalpoliticalinstitu- ing about the consequences of nuclear tions will be created for two reasons: to explosions. Recognition of the " nuclear force countries to take remedial steps winter" effect has made nuclear disarma- that no one nation would be 'willing to ment more urgent than ever." undertake alone, and to allow countries At the governmental level, the Global to gain from cooperation what they can- 2000studyUndertaken during the not gain from unilateral action. As`Then- Carter, administration contributed to tionect kChapter 5, 16 nations have worldwide understanding of complex joinedNa '40.percent club" pledging to environmental and resource 'trends. reduce sulfur dioxideemissions by at Other governments are now conclikting least 30 percent over the next ten years. national Year 2000 studies, many mod- Although the two largest sulfur emitters, eled on the Global 2000 report. Among the United States and the United King- those completed or in progress are stud- dom, have refused to join, the trend to-

ies in Canada, China, Iceland, Japan, ward cooperation is encouraging. No na- , Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, tion, acting alone, is capable of stopping and South Korea. When completed, airborne pollutaniS at 14 borders. over one third of the world's people will Countries are often slow to recognize live in countries that have taken this the second reason for creating interna- basic step toward understanding long- tional institutions .---that their self-inter- term resource trends," est is best served by cooperation. The Perhaps the most challenging' aspect insight that a resource fortnerly consid- of many problems facing humanity today ered "national" is actually "global" can is their gradual; insidious nature. Since -create afoundationforcooperative the time horizon associated with issues efforts. The Organization 9f Petroleum such as population growth, soilerosion,- Exporting Countries would 'have found- CO* buildup, and deforestation does not ered long ago if oil were not a global - mesh with the multiyear terms of elected commodity. Intact tropical forests are political* leaders, the temptation to ig- beginning to be seen as a global re- nore such topics, is great. source as well. Writing in Foreign Affairs,

259 Getting Back on Track (2'15) tropical forest analyst Nicholas Guppy ,change demands not only a vision of the argues that air Organization of Timber future, but the capacity to communicate o Exporting Countries could slow defor- that vision. The effort to put the wold pstatiorf while boosting the earnings of on a sustainable basis will take Years.of timber producers. Such an insti ition rapid, perhaps convulsive, economic,and would require an unprecedented. dree social change. Success in restoring a sus- of cooperation from the 17 count es tainable society will depend on the will- that export nine tenths of the work 's ingntss and ability of political leaders to tropical timber, but it could do more to helptheirconstituentsunderstand save remainink forests than any other change, why it is inevitable, and how to approach by making forest conservation influenceitsdirection.Psychologist a paying proposifion." . Warren G. Bennis observes that great Vie advance of knowledge has ac! political leaders such as Jeffemon, Lin- celeratedit'sspeciali7ation.Unfortu- coln, and Wilson were above all educa- nat ely, the pendulum has swung too far ors,"transforming murky problems in this direction, and -much of today'"'into understandabl issues...(filtering) khowledge is fragmentary asa, result. , the unwieldy flow (A information into co- This fragmentation has influenced not herent patterns."t" Without a proper only the accumulation of knowledge - understanding of theforces driving universities but also the way knowle change, governments fail to respond to isused by, governments and by emerging problems, and problems be-. United Nations system, all of which seem come crises. crippled by an inability to act consis- From time td time a person with a vi- tently and decisively. The knack f6r syp-eion for the future, elected orAppointed thesis is lacking. In an Aspen -institute to a position of responsibility,' nudges paper on governance, Joseph Slater, the society toward a sustainable future. Jerry 1nsti tite'spresident,notes 'f'Many Brown, for example, as Governor of Cal-. bright people can analyze situations with ifornia, provided active leadership in great skill, but many of them also tend to adopting policies and programs to en- leave- the pieces of analytic mosaic courage the development of renewable scattered uselessly onon the top 41 -a table. energy resources. Today California not It is truly mat persons who show us how, only, leads the world in both wind-- we can put these pieces together-Tin- generated electricity and geothermal deed, that ability is the hallmark of great- electricity, it has spawned new wind and ntis,s."49 geothermal industries that are moving to Within the. U.S. Congress, concern develop these resources in other parts of over the pace of technological, change the world. and the need for synthesis led to crea- Ideology is not a substitute for intelli- tion of the Office onechnology eSs, gent, responsible policy. Pragmatism. is ment. Its purpose was to skete -.4411e the order of the day. Even countries with broad policy issues confronting Con- .entrenchedideologiescanembrace gress, issues that demanded interdisci- pragmatism. Recent,, tars have seen a plinary analysis and action. The Of, fi ce of niajoritshin in both the Hungarian and Technology Assessment has become a Chinese economies as leaders in these trusted, nonpartisan voice on many of countries recognized that too much eco- the divisive issues of technology policy nomiccentralizationwasimpeding that confront Congress., the executive progress. As a result, both have given a branch, and the public.D0 much freer rein to market forces.' Chi- Effective leadership in a time of rapid ;nese success,- in improving ,diets has

260. (246) State of theWorld 1985 flowed directly from the government's example by mounti extensive volunh

. decision to reduce its involvement in ag- tart' reforestation e orts often:superior riculture while increasing itsinvolve,. to those designed the government. ment ill family planning. And women have gaina new measure While the Chinese Government has of authority in recognition of their lead- become more pragmatic in recent years, ership in the movernon't stemming front. the U.S. Government seems to have be- their previously unacknowledged role in come less so. Nowhere was this more collecting fuel and fodder for their com-. evident than at the International Confer: munities.52.. ence on Population in Mexico City in The threats to progress that the,world

August 1984, where the United States faces today ire of such immense.propor- . argued that market forces alone could tions that people from all walks:of life solve the population problem. This posi- will havr-to participate in solving themtt tion, which ignored the. vast body of The years. ahead are likely to be trail, demographic knowledge and belittled filmic, and they could be catastrophic.. the perceptions of 'other governments, The issues we have outlined, already led to much criticism. and' even ridicule, place great stress o,n the international of the U.S. Government. political fabric. Much of the leadership rogniredin the. The international community's capac- years ahead will come from grass...rows ity to deal with the new threats to prog- activists. Arresting and reversing the ress may first be tested in Africa, where deterioration .of -hying conditionsis the dimensions of the unfolding food ,above all else a political. process and it and water crises have not yet been fully requires broad participation. Numerous grasped. Emergency food relief efforts activist groups have sprung up in many absolutely essential though they are I parts of the world to trOns slate-icieas into treat only the symptoms. 9f the deteri- policy. None better.. exemplifies the in- orating situation. If Africa is. drying out terdependence of ecological, economic, because of populatiop-induced changes and social systems than the Chipko An- in land use, as postulated in Chapter I, dolon.or "Hug the Trees" movement in then the continuous, continent -wide de- the Himalayan foothillsof northern ,cline in per capita food production can India. be reversed only by tree planting, family The Chipko movement was born a planning, soil conservation, and water decade ago of village women's concern resource development on cale a about deforestation leading to excessive with an urgency exceedi ahy t mo- erosion and landslides, to increasingly tional collaborative effort since the Al- destructive flooding on the plains below, lied Powers mobjlized during World and to a waste of local fuelwood re- War II. It demands leaders whet Will shift , sources Since 1973, the Chipkos have the world's attention, .ktcl its. resources, challenged the government of Uttar Pra- from maintainingleasU..st hostility to

desh to enact a. forest policy more sensi- restoring the natural s i s that ulti-* tive to local needs. They have also set an mately sustain all stcietie

.10 4

I 26j 0 Notes

Chapter 1, A False se of Security- tory" ( unpublished printout), Washington., 1. Estimate of AfricanOed with imi;orted D.C., April 1984, and on Chinese data fibm grain in 19based on iniportkgues from Zheng Guanglin, "Preliminary Results From U.S. Department of Agriculturi: (USDA), the China 2000 Study: A PerSonal Foreign Agricultural Service, Forlign Agricul- G.O. Barney & Associates, Inc., Arlington, ture Circular FG-8784,Washington, D.C., May Va., unpublished, July 1984. For a complete 1984, and on assumption that one ton of discussion of these calculations, see Lester R. grain will feed roughly six people for a year. BirdWrx and Edward C. Wolf, Soil Erosion: Qiiiet Crisisiri MI World EcortVnny ( Washington, D.C.: 2 "-Trend in grain production per capita "Worldwalch Institute, September 1984). from USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), World Indices of Agriculture and Food Pro- 10. Water table decline in Tamil Nadu Pdurtion, /950-83(unpublishedprintout) front Carl Widstrand, ed Water Conflicts and (Wa'shington, D.C.: 1984). Research Priorities (Oxford, U.K.: Pergamon 'Press, 1980); information on northeast China 3. U.S. Agency fcir International Develop- from Vaclav Smil, The Bad Earth: Et virotimen- ment, "Fiscal Year 1980 Budget Proposal for ill Degradation in China (Armonk, N.Y.;. M.E, Ethiopia," Washington, D.C., 1978.-- Sharpe, Inc., 1984); shrinking Soviet seas 4. "Wound in the World,' Asioweek, July from Dr. John Gribben, "Climatic Impact Of 13, 1984. Soviet River Diversions," New Scientist, De; 5. Peter Hendry, "Land Use and Living cernPer 6, 1979,and from C;rigorii Voropaev Space," Ceres, November/December 1983; and Aleksei Kosarev, "The Fall and Rise of the Caspian Sea," New Scientist, April Sr 1982; i4 "Chitiese Reform Burial Customs," Mazin- gird, March 1M1.. decline in VS., irrigated area. from USDA, , Agritirtitara/ Statistics. 1983 (Washington; D.C. ;' 6. Alcohol fuels intrazil are discussed at Qovernment.Printing Office, 1983), and length in Chapter 8. from unpublished data from Bureau of the 7. M. Mitchell Waldrop, "An Inquiry, into Census, "1982 Census of Agriculture," U.S. the State of the Earth," Science; October 5, Departmentof Commerce, Washington, 1984; "Grotip Seeks Global Scientific Proj- D.C., 1984, ect," New York Times, September 29, 1984: 1 1. United Nations iFood and Agriculture "Nyerere Urges African Debt Default," Organization(FAp)tProduction Yearbook _ Washitigton Pact, November 17, 1984: (Rome; various years),. 9. Author's estimate based on U.S, data 12. Davidson R. Gwatkin, Signs of Change in from USDA, Soil Conservation Service, "Pre- Developing Country Mortality Trends: The End of liminary 1982 National Resources Inven- an &a. , Development Paper No. 30 (Wash- (248) Notes ington, D.C.: Overseas velopment Coth- Ipa/tm.entof Energy, June 1983), from Her- cif, February 19 ) bert R. Block, the Planetary Product in 1980:A 13. National Resent. ard on Creative Pause? (Washington, D.C.: U.,S.De- Science and Technology t-' International partment of State, 1981), and from Interna- Deteloprnent, Environmental'have in the West tional Monetary Fund, World EconomicOutlook African Sahel (Washington, C.: National (WaShington, D.C.: May 1984 andSeptem- Academy Press, 1983). ber 1984).

. 14. F. Kenneth Hare, "RecentClimatic 27. Kellogg .and Schware, "Society,Sci- ExperienceintheArid and Semi-Arid ence and Climate Change." Lands," Deserufication Control, (Nairobi),May 28. Ibid. 1984. 29. Ibid. .15. F. Kenneth Hare, cited in NationalRe- search Council, Environmental Change. 30. "Natural Disasters," EarthscanPress Briefing Document No, 39, Earthscan, Wash: 16. Eneas Salati and Peter B. Vosc,"Any- - ington, D.C., May 1984. zon Basin: A System in Equilibrium,': Science, July 13, 1984. 31. V. Ramanathan etal., :'Trace Gas Trends and Their Potential Role in 17. Ibid. Climate Change," National Center for Atmospheric .18. Philip M. Fearnside, "Br.azil'sAmazon Research, Boulder, Colo., unpuglighed,Au- Settlement Schemes," Habitat International, gust 1984. Vol. 8. No. 1, 1984. 32. Stephen Seidel and Dale Keyes,Can 19. Cited in Salati and Vose,"Amazon ll'r Delay a Greenhouse Warming? (Washington, Basin." D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection'Agency, 1983). 20. All references in this_paragraphdis- cussed in ibid. 33. See Chavier 7 fora full discnssion of 1421. Hare,"Recent Climatic Experience." the Department of Energy model andthe Worldwatch 'Scenarios. 22. Cited in ibid. 34. The concept of a "COrbenign"en- 23. Ibid. ergy strategy was 'introduced by David J. Rose et 24. Wiliam W. KelloggandRobert al.,Global Eneigy Fr es and COr- Schware,"Society, Science and Climate Induced Climate' Change (Cam ridge,-Mass..: Change," Foreign Affairs, Summer 1982. MassachusettsInstituteof Techndlogy, .1983). 25. G.14. Woodwt11 et al., "Global Defor- estation: Contribution to Atmospheric Car- 35. International Energy Agency,World bon Dioxide:" Science, December 9,1983. Energy Outlook (Paris: Organisation forEco- nomicCo-operationandDevelopment, 26. Estimates of carbon-emissions inten- )982). sity of economic output basedon data from United Nations, Departnient of International 36, Grain production data fromUSDA, Economic and. Social Affairs, "Foisil Fuels ERS, World Indices; China's cropland proS- Production and Trade':(printout), New p'ects from Francis Urban and Thomas Voll- York,' May 1984, from Gregg Mariam!and rath, Patterns and Trends in World Agricultural Ralph M.. 'Reny, C4rbon DioxideEmissions front Land Use (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Govern- Fossil Fuels: A P7oc4ure for Estimationand Re- ment Pi:inting Office, 1984). sults for 1950-81 (Washington, D.C.: U:S. De- 37. USDA, ERS, World Indices. I 263 Q Notes (249) 38. "Africa Faces 'Catastrophe';"Mazin- 7. Akcf %nal, "Village Overspill,"Mazin- gira. May 1989; World Bank,Toward Sustained Om No. 6, 1978. Development in Sub-Saharan Africa(Washing! ton, DtC.: 1989). 8. Author's discussions with Chinese officials in Beijing. April 1984; Peter Hendry, 39: Grain production data from USDA, "Land Use and Living Space,"Ceres,Novem- ERS,World Indices. ber/December 1983. 40. Population Plata from Population Ref- 9. Dwight Perkins, "Constraints Influenc- erence Bureau,1984 World Population Data ing China's Agricultural Performance," in Sheet(Washington, D.C.: 1989); grain pro- U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee, duction data from USDA, ERS,World Indices. China: A Reassessment of the Economy(Washing- ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1975). Chap er 2. Reducing Hunger 10. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Associa- 1. cline in Africa's per capita grain out- tion,World Motor Vehicle Data Book, 1982-Edi- put f m U.S. Department of Agriculture tion (Detroit,Mich.: 1982). (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS), 11. United Nations, Economic Commis- World Indices Of Agricultural and Food Production, sion for Latin America.El Media Ambiente en 1950-83.(unpublished printout) (Washing- America Latina(Santiago, Chile; May 076). tbn, D.C.: 1989); share of Africa's population sustained by imported grain is author's esti- 12. "Should Agricultural Land Be Pro- tected?,','OECD Observer. mate based on USDA data on grain 'prOluc- Septeber/Otto'. bee 1976. tion and iMports. N. Decline in harvested area of cereals 2. Francis Urban and Thomas Bradt, [town Urban land Vollrath,Patterns and rends Patterns and D-ends in World Lipkatural- Land in World Agricultural Land Use. Use(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1984). .14. "Chinese Reform Buri4 Customs," Mating-Ira. March 1984, 3.: Ibid. 15. USDA, ERS,World Indices. 4. Drainage in Soviet Union from USDA, 0RS,USSR, :Outlookan SituationReport 16. Science Council of Canada, "Popula- (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Uovernment Prin- tion, Technology, and Resources," Ottawa, ting Office, 1984); Great Plains states exam- Ontario, July 1976. .ples from Robert Gray, American Farmland 17, CharlesE.Hanrahan,FrancisS, Trust, Washington, D.C., private communi- Urban: and J. Larry Deaton,Longnin Changes cation, Novelnber 9, 1984. in World Food Supply and Demand(Washington, D.C.: USDA, ERS, 1984). 5. United Nations, Department of Interna- tional Economic and Social Affairs, 'Estimates 18. Based on unpublished data from and PrOjtctiortsof Urban, Rural, and CityPopula- Bruce 'Sione, International Food Policy Re- tions,1950-2025: The 1980. Assessment(New search Institute, Washington, D.C. York: 1982). 19. Centre for MOnitoring Indian Econ- 6. Linda tee, "A Perspect,ve on Cropland omy,, Economic IntelligenCeService, Basic Availability::USDA, Washington,D.C., Statistics Relating to the IndianEconomy,Vol. 1: 1978; Organisation for Economic Co-opera- All India.(Bombay; 1984). tion and Development, LandUse Policies and 20, Data on irrigated area in 1978 from Apiculture(Paris: 1976). USDA,Agricultural Statistics 1983.(Washing: N

Notes. ,24 ton, D.C.: U.S. Government t i ng on latit from International Monetary Fund, 1983); change itiftivigated a since 1978 International Financial StatiStics (Washington, based on unptiblished dint front Bureau of D.C.: various annual, issues). the Census, "1982 Census of Agricidtpre," 34. FAO, Agricti/turo: Toward 2000 (Rome: U.,S. Department of t ommerce, Washington. 1979). D.C., 1984. 4 35. VAO/UNIDO/World Bank projection 21. USDA, ERS USSR Outlook and Sjstuation cited in Lastigzon, World Fertilizer Progress; Report USDA forecast from USDA, ERS, Inputs Out- 22. Hanrahan, Urbait, and Demon, Long- look and Situation. . runChanges in World Food Supply and Demand. 36. Urbatvioted in Robert C. Cowan, 23. USDA, ERS, Inputs Outlook and Situation "Gene-Splicing Opens New World for Agri- (Washington, D.C.: February 1984). culture," Christian Science Monitor, July 7, 24. Ibid. 1981. 25. Joseph Laseigzon,_ World Fertilizer Prog- 37. U.S. Office of Technology Assess., ress Into the 1980's (Muscle Shoals, Alit.: Infer- ment, Impacts of Applied Cenetiess: Micro-organ- national Fertilizer Development Center, De- urns, Plants, and Animals (Washington, D.C.': U.S. Government Printing- Office; 1981). cember 1981)., 38. Data on yields for corn, wheat, sorg- . 26. Ibid. hum, and rice from USDA, ERS, World Indices. 27. The Fertilizer Institute, Fertilizer Refer- ence Manual (Washington, D.C.: 1982). - 39. Figure on artificial inseminatio from )tr "The Livestock Iiidustry's Genetic R olu- 28. U.S.a Soviet fertilizer consumption lion," Swings; Week, June 21, 1982; em from Fertilizer Institute, FertilizerReference transfer figure from Harrison Brotman, "En- Manual; U.S. and Soviet grain production gineering the Birth of Cattle," New York Thnes from USDA, ERS, World Indices. Magazine, May 15, 1983. 29. Response ratios based on fertilizer 40. In 1983, 142 million metric tons of data from United Nations Food and Agricul- grain were traded worldwide and 1,457 mil- ture Organization (FAO), 1:40 1977 Fertilizer lion metric tons harvested; the share of gl-ain Year*opk (Rome: 1978), atad from Paul An- consumed in countries where harvested was driletuts, USDA, ERS, private communica- 90.3 percent. Grain (tide data from USDA, ' tion, September 28, 1983; grain production Foreign Agricultural Service, Foreign Agricul- dja from USDA, ERS, World Indices. ture Circulars FG-23,83 and FG -8 -84, Wash- 30. Brazil's import restrictions are dis- ingtoh, D.C.,NatuRt 1983 andMay 1984; cussed in USDA,ERS,Latin 'America, World harvest data-from USDA, ERS, World Indices, Agricultury Regional Supplement, Review fo,Q 982 with paddy rice consrerted to milled equiva- and Outlook for 1985 (Washington, D.C.: lent by Worldwatch Institute. 198/). 41: USDA; ERS, World indices. 31. USDA, ERS, Inputs Ontlook and SiRia- 42. Urban and V011rath, Patterns and Trends do in World Agricultural Land Use. n\ta32. stigzon, World Fertilize`. Progress. 43. Estimate of world topsoil loss due to 33. Calculated using the dollar price of erosion kom Lester R1Brown and Edward C. urea at European ports, assuming a nitrogen Wolf, Soil Erosion: Quiet Crisis in the/10'01d Econ- contein of 46,66 percent, and the dollar price onty (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Insti- of wheat for export pt U.3'° Gulf ports, based tute; September 1984); southern Iowa study Nrg les (25!) from Paul Rosenberry. Russell Knutson, and 4. InquiryonFederalWaterPolicy, Lacy Harmon, "Predicting the Effects of Soil "Water 0 a Mainstream Issue: Participation Depletion from Erosion," Journal o/ Soil and Paper." Canadian Minister of Supply and Water Conservation, May/June 1980. Services, Ottawa, 1984; Mardiono Notodi- hardjo, "Indonesia'sWater Resources," in 44. See. for example, Warren Hoge, "Bra- W. Hall C. Maxwell, cd., Water for Human Con- zil's Poor Raiding Food Stores in the Rio suinption, Proceedings of the Fourth World Area," New York Time3, September 1983; Congress of thq International Water Re- Margot Hornblower, "Price Riots Imperil sources Associatioif (Dublin:Tyclioly Inter- Dominican Government," Washington Oast, national Publishil.td., 1883); llnie Na- April 30, 1984; JameN Rupert, "Tunisians tions Economic mmission for mope Riot Over Bread Ilice Rise," WaShington Post, J NEC E),Long- Term Perspectives fat It'a ter Use January 4, 1984; Jonathan C. Randal, "Mo- and Supply inthe ECE Region (New York: rocco's Unrest Has Its Roots in Economic United Nations, 1981). Woes," Washington Pat January 27, 1984.; "Poland Prepares for Unrest Over Food 5. William W. KelloggandRobert /' Prices," Mew I'm* - Times. December 4, 1983. Schware."Society,Science and Climate For an overview, see Paul Streeten, "Food Change," Foreign Vans, Summer 1982. Prices as a Reflection of Political Power," 6. USSR Conunittee for-the International Ceres, March/April 1983. Hydrological Decade, World IVater Balance and Water Resources of the Earth (Paris: UNESCO, Chapter 3. Managing Freshwater Sup-. 1974); plies 7. Rice yields with different degrees of water controlfrom Asit 'limas, "Major 1. Frits van der Leetlen. Water Resources Water Problems Facing the World," interna- the World (Port Washington, N.Y.: Water In- tional Jovial of Water Re ounces Development, formation Center,Inc. 1975). April 1983. 2. An annual supply of 1,000 cubic meters -8. Estimate of global irrigated area and its per person is typically given as necessary for contributiontoproductionfrom W.R. a decent standard of living. See CarlWids- Rangeley, "IrrigationCurren( Trends and trand, ed.,- Water Conflicts and Research Priorities a Future Perspective," World Bank Seminar, (Oxford, U.K.: Pergamon Press, 1980). Washington, D.C., February 1983. Irrigation 3. Vacla ,The Bad Earth: Environmen- demands based on FAO estimate for the tal Degr 'hina Likrtn9nk, M.E.c '11974 World Food Conference that gross Sharpe, ); Malin Falkenlork and water demand for harvested. cropinigation Gunnar Lindh.-Illater for a Starving World averages I 1,400 cubic tneters per hectare:Esti- (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1976); Gary mate takes into account that rice requires twice S. Posz et al., "Water Resource Development as much water as wheat and other dry cereals. in India," American Embassy, New Delhi, this figure, applied to an average expansion June 1980; food grain reduction from B.B. 'of irrigation of 4 million hectares annually, Sundaresan, "Water: A Vital Resource for led to estimate of an'additional 820 billion cu- the Developing World," in Peter G. Bourne, bic meters annually for irrigation by 2000. ed., Water and Sanitation: Economic and Sociolog- 9. Wayne B. Solley et al., Estimated Use of Fla.:ACAdetnic icalPerspectives(Orlando, Irater in the United Slates in 1980 (Aleltandria,s Press, Inc., 1984); Zaii-e River flow from van Va.: U.S. Geological Survey, 1983). der Leeden, Water' Resources of the World: fam- 0.. ine threat in Africa discussed in Chapters 1 10. See John Harte and Mohamed E1-Ges- and 2. seir, "Water and Energy," Science, February

266 f, ( 25 2 ) Notes 10, 1978. and Norman L. Dalsted and John merit of Agriculture, k'Colorado High Plans W. Green, "Water Requirements. for Coal- Study: Summary Repiiirt," Denver, otrr, Fired Po i,er Plants," Natural Resources Journal, November 1983; for backgroundon the Janus; ; percent consumed from Solley Ogallala's development,see Kenneth D. et al, $ led Use in the United States. Frederick and James C. Hanson, Water for

1. Major water-nsinginduStriesfrom Western Agriculture (Washington, . D.C,; Reb United Nations, Resources and Needs:Assessment sources for the Future,. 1982), and Morton of the World Water Situation, prepared forthe W. Bittinger and Elizabeth. B. Green, You U.N. Water Conference, Mar del Plata, Ar- l'ever Miss the Water 7111...(Littleton, Colo.: gentina, March 1977; trends in European Water Resources Publications, 1980);data countries from UNECE, Long-Term Perspectives on water depletion from U.S. Geological Sur- for Water Use andSupply;Swedish Preparatory vey, National !Vetter Sundnary 1983 11ydmlogic Committee for the U.N. Water Conference, Events and Issues(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Water in Sweden (Stockholm: Ministry of Agri- Government Printing Office, 1984). culture, 1977). 21. V.S. Department of Agriculture, Agri- 12. Development decade goals cited in culturalStatistics1983 (Washington; D.C.: Biswas, "Major Water Problem's." U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983) and Bureau of the Census, "1082 Census of Agri- 13. United Nations, Resources and Needs; culture," U.S. Department of Commerce, Solley et al., Estimated Use in the United States. Washington, D.C., 1984; Nebraskacorn pro- 14. UNECI.-:,LOng-Thin Perspectives for Water duction statistics from U.S. Department of Use and Supply; World Health Organization. Agriculture, Economic ResearchService, Drinking Water and Sanitation, 1981-1990 (Ge- Economic Indicators of the FarmSec,tor: Costs of neva: 1981). Production1982 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983). 15, Wids 4 'Voter Conflicts .and Research Priorities. 22. See Dean Abrahamson and Peter 16. Water tendered unusable by pollution Ciborowski, "North American Agriculture by year 2900 estimated at 3,000 cubic kilome- and the Greenhouse Problem," Repyrtof ters in Robert P. Ainbroggi, "Water," Scien- the Humphrey Institute Symposiumon the tific Anwrican, September 1980. Response of the North American Gran- ary to Greenhouse Climate Change, Minn- 17. Zheng Guanglin, "Research Program eapolis, Minn., April 1983, and'Kellogg and on China 2000," Institute of Scientific and Schware,"Society, Science and Climate Technical Information of China, Beijing, Change.,, draft, February 1984; SEMI, The Bad Earth. 23. Tucson information from TonyDavis, 18. U.N. Economic Commission.on Latin "Trouble in a Thirsty City," Technology Re- America, The Water Resources of Latin America: ,te view, August /September 1984; Texas and Regional Report (Santiago de Chile: 1977); Mexico references in Tommy Knowles and Bogota River cited in Peter Nares, "Colom- Frank Rayner, "Depletion Allowance for bian Towns Threatened by Polluted Bogota Groundwater Mining: Pros and Cont,"fottr- River," World Environment Report, May30, "nal of the American Water WorksAssocialiOn, 1984. March 1978. 19. Thane Gustafson, "Transforming So- 24. Reference to Tamil Nadu inWids- viet Agriculture; Brezhnev's Gambleon Land trand, Water Coq/lids and Research Priorities; Improvement," Public Policy, Sumtber 1977, China references from SIMI, The Bad Earth., . 20, Share of U.S. irrigated land from Re- 25: Thomas G.Sanders,"Population source Analysis Section, Colorado Depart- Growth and Resource Management: Planning

.14 , Notes ( 253 ) Mexico's 'Water Supply," Common Ground, Anupam Mishra. "An Irrigation Proj- October 1977; China references from "Sink- ect at Has Reduced Farm Production," ing City Under Control," Beijing Review, Feb- Con.:.for Science and Environment, New ruary 23, 1981; Smil, The Bad harth; Texas Delhi, 1981. situation from Knowles and Rayner,'"Deple- 32. Global estimate from V.A. Kovda, tion Allowance: Pros and Cons." "Los's of Productive Land due to Saliniza- 26. For U4 citations, seeU.S. Geological tion,"44mbio,' Vol. 12, No. 2, 1983; India and Survey, National Water Summary 1983; otherPakistan estimates from Gilbert Levine et al., countries cited in Tony Samst'ag, "Top Much "Water," prepared for Conference on Agri- of a Good Thing," Development Forum. April cultural Production: Research and Develop- 1984. ment Strategies for the 1980's, Bonn, West 27. Ctopland figure from M.I. L'vovich Germany, October 1979; other areas and I.U. Tsigernaya, "The Potential for from Biswas, "Major Water Problems," and Long-Term Regulation of Runoff in the various other sources. Mountains of the Aral: Sea Draina asin," 33. Estimate of reservoir capacity based Soviet Geography, October 198.1; p. ulation on M.I. L'vovich, World Water Resources and and employment issues discussed in Tha Their Future, translation ed. Raymond L. Nace Gustafson, "Technology Assessment, So (Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Style," Science, June 20, 1980; inforrnatiosion. Union, 1979); figures on large dam construc- the Aral from Philip P. Micklin, Department, tion from van der Leeden, Water Resources of of Geography, Western Michigan University, the World, and from Philip Williams, "Dam- Kalamazoo, ,Mich., private communication, ming the World," Philip Williams & Associ- September 5,1984; scientists' projections ates,San Francisco,' Calif..unpublished, from G.V. Voropaev et al:, "The 'Problem of April 1983. Redistribution of Water Resources in the 34.. U.S. Geological Survey, National Water Midlands Region of the USSR,"Soviet Geogra- If Summary 1983. phy, December 1983. 35. UNECE; Long-Term Perspectives for Water 28. Estimate of water level decline from O.K. Leont'yev, "Why Did the Forecasts of Use and Supply. . Water-Level Changes in the Caspian Sea 36. Williams, "Damming the World." Turn Out to be prong ?," Soviet Geography, 37, Donor agency inspections from U.S. May 1984; background information from General Accounting Office, Irrigation Assist- Crigosii Voropaev and Aleksei Kosarev, ancetoDeveloping CountriesShould Require "The Fall and Rise of the Caspian Sea," New Stkonger Commitments to Operation and Mainte- Scientist, April 8, 1982; Micklin,,private com- nance (Washington, D.C.: 1983); John Made- mtsnication; Caspian fisheries discussed in ley, "Big Dam SchemesValue for Money or Philip P. Micklin, "Irtternational;;, Environ- Non-Sustainable Development?," Mdzingira, mentalImplicationsac'Soviet Zeveloprnent. Vol. 7, No. 4, 1983. of the Volga Riter,"H7finn Ecology, Vol. 5, ar No; 2, 1977. 38. For an excellent discussion of these water and land interactions, sec Malin Falk- 29. Ali lip C. Metzger and Jennifer. emnark, "NeW Ecological Approach, to the Haverkimp, "Instream Flow Protection: A Water Cycle: Ticket to the Future," Ambio, aptationto Intensifying Demands," The Vol. 13, No. 3, 1984; Malaysia example from Conservatio Foundation, Washington, Eneas Salmi and Peter B. Vose, "Amazon D.C., June Basin: A System in Equilibrium," Science, inly 30. Inquiryn Federal WaterPoli4, 13, 1984; Dominica example finm Robert S. "Water is a M instream Issue." Goodwin, "Water Resources Development

1 (25 4 ) Notes

in Small Islands: Perspectives and Needs," Bureau of Reclamation." V..conornics Divart- Naturat Resources Forum, January1984. me94 University of Montana,Missoula,. 39. gor anassessment of selected large IAW-. 1978. dam projects, see Environmental Policy Insti-r- Costs to Ate from Steve Macauley, tute, "Fact Sheets on International Water, visory Engineer for the State Water Development Projects," Washington, D.C., ject Analysis Office, California Depart- 1984 ment of Water Resources, private communi- 40. History and 1983government support cation, October 23, 1%84; pumpingcosts from Asit K. BiSWilS, "Water Where It's from California Department of Water Re- sources, Wanted,- Developcnent 'Forum,August/Sep- Management of the California State tember 1983; Yao Bangyi and Chen Oju- 1VoterPro*:(Sacramento: California Re- glian, "South-North Water Trtinsfer Project sources Agency, 1983). Plans," in Asit K. Biswaset al., eels.,Long- 47. Jack 'Foley, "Govermw's Water Bill Distance Water71-ansfer (Dublin: Ty ly In- Dead for thisYear," San Jos' Mercury News, ternational Publishing Ltd., 1983). August 7, 1984; private communications with California Department of Water Resources 41. Bruce Stone. "The Chang Jiang Diver- personnel. June and August 1984. sion Project: An Overview of Economic and Environmental lssnes." in Biswas et al.,Long- 48. Projects worldwide VAri Jay H. Lehr, Distance WaferTransfer; Cost estimates also "At4ificial Ground-WAter Recharge: A Solu- given in Asit K. Biswas, "US $12 Billion Plan tion to Many U.S. Water-Supply Problems," to Redistribute China'sl'titer Wealth," Ground Water,May/June 1982; Israel project South,April 1982. .1 cited in Robert P. Ambroggi, "Underground' Reservoirs to Control the Water Cycle," 42. For discussion of Siberian diversion Scientific American,May 1977; California De- plans, see O.A. Kibal'chich krict N.I. Koron- pitriment of Water Resources,The California kevich, "Some of the Results ,and Tasks of State Water ProjectCurrent Activities and Future Geographic Investigationson the Water- Afanagement Planscramemo> Transfer yroject," California Soviet Geography, Decem- Resources Agency, 1A80); California Dept. of ber198A; quote is from Gusta6on, "Tech- Water Resources, Management of the WaterPro- nology Assessment, Soviet Style." ject;Helen Peters, Groundwater Staff Spe- 43. Philip P. Micklin, "Recent Develop- cialist; California Department of Water-Re- thents in Large -Scab Water Transfers in the -. sources, private communication, October USSR,"Soviet Geography,April 1984:: cost es- 1984; median cost estimate fornew surface timates from Micklin, private commnica- reservoir's from Ronald B. Rhie,"Irrigation tion, October 16, 1984; water-savingpoten- Development in CaliforniaConstructionor tials and salihilation risks fromsummary of Water Management?,".in lmigation;,Chalknges remarks made by O.A. Kibal'chichat confer- of the 80's(St. Joseph, Mich.: American Sod- ence in Irkutsk, Soviet Union, August 1988, ety of Agricultural Engineers, 1981); Envi- and published inSovietGeography, December ronmental and Energy Study Institute, Weekly 1983. Bulletin,.March 26, 1984; Russell Brown, 'Subcommittee on Water and Power, Senate 44, U.S. Congreisional Budget Office, Committeeon Energy and Natural .,ke. Efficient investments in Water Resources: Issues and sources, private communication; OctOber Options (Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government 1984N. Printing Office, 1983). 49. Gangetic Plain estimates f Wids- 45, Thomas M. Power, "In Economic trand,Wager Conflicts and Research '0ifs;in- Analysis of the Central Arizona' Project: U.S. formation on China from Steil, TheBad Earth......

Notes (255) 50. Ambroggi,"UndergroundReser- Wasteftil West," Ground Water, March/April voirs"; William R. Gasser, Survey of Inigation 1983; 'Brazilian information from IDB News, in Eight Asian Nations (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Inter-American Development Bank, Wash- Department of Agrivitlie. 1981); problems ington, D.q., Vol. 10, No. 4. with the project cited in Ian Carruthers and 57. Efficiency ranges from J. Keller et al.. Roy Stoner, Economic Aspects and Policy issues in "Evakiation of Irrigation Systems," in Irriga- Groundwater Development( Washington; D.C.: tion Challenges of the 80.5: tailwater reuse dis- The World Bank, 1981) and by Douglas Mer- cussed in Gordon Sloggett, Energy. and U.S. rey, Agency for International Development, Agriculture:IrrigationPumping 1974-198Q private communication, October .1984. (Washington. D.C.: U.1 Government Prin- 51. Wayne A. Pettyjohn, Introduction to Ar- ting Office, 1982); E. G7 Kruse et al., "Ad- tificial Ground Water Recharge (Columbus, vances in Surface Irrigation," in Irrigation Ohio: National Water Well Association. Challenges of the 80's. 1981):. 58. Nebraska program from Paul E. Fisch- 52. Lehr, "Artificial Ground-Water Re- bach. "Irrigation Management (Scheduling) charge." Application," in Irrigation Challenges of the 80's; California system described by Edward Crad- 53. L'vovich, World Water Resources aticir dock. CalifoTia Department of Watet Re- Future. soiirces, Office of Water Conservation, pri- 54. U.S. Office of Technology Assess- ,vatecommunication.June21, 1984; ment, Water-Related Technologies forSystailiable Milornia Department of Water Resources, Agriculture in U.S. Arid /Semiarid Lands (Wash- "The Mobile Agricultural Water Conserva- ington,D.C.: U.S. Government Printing tionLaboratory,"information pamphlet pre- Office,1983); desalination cost estimates pared by the Office of Water Conservation, from U.S. Comptroller General, Desalting Sacramento, Calif. Water Probably Will Not Solve the Nation's Water 59. "Israel's Water Policy: A National Problems, But Can Help (Washington, D.C.: Commitment." U.S. General Accounting Office, 1979); use in Arabian Peninsula from M. A. Khan et al., 60. General Accotting Office, Irrigation "Development of Supplies &. Sanitation in Assistance to Developingkountries; D.B. Kraatz, Saudi Arabia." African Technical Review, June Irrigation Canal Lining (Rome: U.N. Food and 1984. Agriculture Organizaiion, 1977). 55. A concise description of irrigation sys- 61. Worth Fitzgerald, U.S. Agency Tor In- tems is contained in Office of Technology ternational Development, private communi- Assessment, Water-Related Technologies for Sus-- cation, April 25, 1984; Egyptian pilot project Minable Agriculture in (LS, Lands. cited in Mark Svendsen et' al., "Meeting the Challenge for BetterIrrigation Manage- rirnentsfrom"Israel's 56. Negev ex ment," Horizons, March 1983. Water Policy; A National Commitment." in U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, Wa- 62. Harte and El-:Gesseir, "Water and "En- ter-Related Technologies for Sustainable Apiculture ergy"; "Thirsty Desert Plaiit Has Unique in Arid/Semiarid Lands: Selected Foreign Experi- Water System," The Phoenix Gazette, June 27. ence (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government 1984; ranges of water use for steel and paper Prititing Office, 1983); Office of Technology from linked Nation Resources and Needs; re- Assessment, Water-Related Technologies for SKS- ductionswith aluminum recycling from R. C. tainable Agriculture in U.S. Lands; Jay H. Lehr, Ziegler, "Environmental Impacts of Virgin "Increased, Irrigation Efficiency Will Ulti- and Recycled Steel and AlumintiM," Calspan mately Silence the Water-Short Blues of the Corporation, Buffalo, N.Y., 1976. (256) Notes

63. Saul Arlosoroff, "Water Management son, 1974 to 1978," Hydrology and Water. Re- Policies Under Scarce Conditions; A Case sources in Arizona and the Southwest, Vol. 10, Study -- -Israel," presented at Conferenceon 1979; Stephen E. Davis, "Tucson's Tools Water for the 21st Century: Will It for Be Demand Manageme," Hydrology andWater There?, Da !Ia.:40'ex.. April 198+- Resources in Arizona. and the Southwest, Vol.8, 64. Swedish PreparatoryCommittee, 1979. Water in Sweden. 71. Lee Wilson and Associates,Inc., 65. Reductions by California pulpand "Water Supply Alternatives for El Paso," paper industry. front California Department prepared for El Paso Water Utilities Public of. Water Resources, ll'ater Use By Manufactur- Service Board, Santa Fe, N. Mex.. November ing industrie..t in California, 1979 (Sacramento: 1981. California Resources Agency, 1982). 72. Kahn et al., "Developmentof Supplies 66. See 3M Company, "Low-or Non-Pol- & Sanitation in Saudi Arabia"; Dennis.J. lution Technology Through PollutionPre- Parlor and Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell, vention," prepared for United Nations 0.1iVi- Water Phinning in Britain (London:Georges rorunnnt Progranime, St. Paul, Minn., June Allen &Unwin,1980); Swedish Preparatory 1982; Braziltstudy from Division for Indus- Committee, Water in Sweden, trial,Studies., "Water Use and :Treatment 73. Quote and estimates of Practices and other Environmental Consider- advanced treatment costs from Axel F. Zunckel and ations in the Iron and Steel' Industry," United Maria P. Oliveira, "South African Water Nations Industrial Decelopment Organiza- Reuse Policy and its Practical Irnylications4" tion, Vienna, Austria, December 1981. in Proceedings of the Water Reuse Symposium11, 67. John J. Boland, "Water/Wastewater Vol. 1 (Denver, Colo.: AWWA Research Pricing and Financial N'aCtiCes in theUnited Foundation, 1981); reuse proje4ionsfrom States,"MetametricS,Inc.,Washington, Mike Nicol, "South Africa WillRequire WaS- D.C., August 1983. . tewater Recycling Before Y:14 2000, Experts Say," 6. For estimates of water andenergy sav- World Environment deport, June 27, ings and costs of various water-conserving 1984; Hillel I. Shuval, "Thle.Developmentof measures, see U.S. Environmental Protection the Wastewater Reuse Program in Israel:"in Agency, Office of Water Program Opera- Proceedings of the Water Reuse SymposiumH. tions,: Flow Reduction: Methods, Analysis'Proce- 74. Value added figures cited inAm- dures, Examples (Washington, D.C.: 1981); ref- broggi, "Watet." erence to West German toilets from World environment Report, April 4, 1984. 75. Great Britain practice fromBurchi, "Regulatory Approaches to the Use of Water 69. Tnikill U.S. household savings from for Domestic Purposes"; subsidies inse- Environmental Protection Agency,Flow Re- lected ,countries from J.A. Sagardoyet al., duction; Stefano Burchi, "RegulatoryAp- Organization, Operation and Maintenance of Irri- proaches to the Use of Water forDomestic gation Schejnes (Reline: U,N. Food and Agricul- Purposes,"IsiieuralResourcesForum, July ture, Organization, 1982); costs to U.S. farm- 1983; Barbara Veaman, Consultantto Facili- ersfromCongressional BudgetOffice, ties Requirements Division, U.S. Environ- Efficient Invesimints i >i Water Resources. mental Protection Agency, private communication, August 10, 1984. 76: Knowles and Rayner, `,'DepletioliAl- lowance: Pros and Cons",:. Institute of Agti- 70.',Adrian H. Griffin et al.,'Changes in 611ture and: NaturalResources, Cooperative Water Rates and Water Consunt Lion in Tuc. Extension Service, "IRS Extends Ground . Notts Water'Depletion Deduction to Nebraska Ir- 85. Arizona Groundwater Management rigators," University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Study Commission Staff, "Summary: Arizona Nebr March 18, 1983, Groundwater Management Act,"briefing 77. Importance ifnproved operation presented to the Arizona Groundwater Man- and maintenancelisaissedby Guy Le agement Study Commission and the Arizona Moigne, Irrigatio dvisor, World Bank, pri- State Legislature, tine 5, 1980; Scott Hanson vate communicaf n, April 1984, and by Fitz- and Floyd Marsh, "Arizona Ground-Water gerald, private nmunication. Reform: Innovations in State Water Policy," Ground Water,January/February 1982; de- 78. See Franc sF. Konen,Building Na- cline in irrigated area from U.S. Department tional Capacity to DevelopWaterUsers' Associa- of Agriculture,Agricultural Statistics 1983,and tions: Experience from the Philippines (Washing- Bureau of the Census, "Census of Agricul- ton,D.C.: The World Bank, 1982); quote .0.ture." from Ruangdej Srivardhano, "No Easy --M iarkagement;)rrigation De yet in the 86. See Environmental Protection Ch-avo Phya Basin, Thailand,"Natural Re- Agency,Flow Reduction,and Institute for sources Foru,",April 1984. Water Resources,The Role of Water Conserva- tionin WaterSupply Planning(Fort Belvoir, 79. See James A. Seagraves and K. William Va.; U.S. Army 'Corps of Engineers, 1979); Easter, "Pricing Irrigation Water in Develop- policy changes under Reagan administration ingCountries," Water Resources Bulletin, Au- from "Water Resources," in The Conserva- gust1983; B. D. Dhawan,Development of Tube- tion Foundation,State of the Environment: An well irrigation in India(New Delhi: Agricole Assessment at Mid:Decade(Washington, D.C.: Publishing Academy, 1983)., 1984), and from Yeaman, private communi- 80. Peter Rogers, "Fresh Water," pre- cation; California lifrom Reprint of Assem- paired for The Global Possible Conference, bly Bill- No. 797,Legislative Council's Digest, World Resources Institute, Wye, Md., May California Assembly, October 1983. 2-5, 1984. 81. James Huffman, "Instream Water Use: Public and Private Alternatives," in Terry L Chapter 4. Maintaining World Fisheries Anderson, ed., WainRights: Scarce Resource Al- I. 1983 fish production is authoes esti- location, Bureaucracy,andtheEnvironment mate'based on United Nations Food and Ag- (Cambridge,Mass.:BallingerPublishing riculture Organization (FAO),1982 Yearbook Company, 1983). ofFisheryStatisticsCatchesandLandings '82. Ibid.; Metzger and. Haverkamp, "In- (Rome: 1984) and various press reports on stream Flow Protection." 1983 catch; share of world protein consumption calculated from FAO,Fishery Statistics 83. For an.excellent review of this deci- Catches and Landino,from'FAO;1981Pro(tuc- sion, see Ellen Sullivan Casey, "Water Law tionYearbook..(Rome:. 1982), and from U.S. Public TrustDoctrine," Natural Resourcesjour- Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricul- nal,July 1984; Harrison C. Dunning, "A New tural Research Service, Front in the Water Wars: Introducing the Composition of Foods, (Washington, D.Cp: U.S. Government Prin- 'Public Trust'Factor," California journal,May ting Office, reprinted 1975). 1983. 2. World Bank,Fishery Sector Policy Paper 84. Dhawan,Development ofj Ttibewell..Irriga- (4Washington,D.C.:" 1982). lion in India; TamilNadu observation from Widstrand,Water Conflicts and Research Priori- 3. FAO,Yearbook of Fishery StatisticsFishery ties. Cerrimodities(Rome: various years).-

272 (258) Notes 4, Aquacttlture Development and Coordi- Wash., priVate communication, November 3, nation Programme, Aid for Aquaculture Devel- 1984. opment in the Third World (Rome: Norwegian 14. Earnings from Peru's anchovy catch in AgencyforInternationalDevelopment, United Nations Development Programme, 1970 from Idyll, "Anchovy Crisis"; ratio of Peru's exports to debt from Lester R. Brotvn, and FAO, 1982); World Bank, Fishery Sector Policy Paper. "Overview," in Lester R. Broivn et al., State of the 11'orld-1984 (New York: W. W. Norton & 5. Per capita fish consumption in the So- Co., 1984). viet Union and the United States based on data from FAO, Fishery StatisticsCatches and 15., Alaska kig crab catch data from State Landings.and from Population Reference Bu- of Alas,ka, Department of Fish and Game, reau,1982 World Population Data Sheet (Wash- "Werit,ard Region Report to the Board of Fisheries," ,Anchorage, Alaika, March 1984; ington, D.C.: 1982); growth (Attie Soviet fac- ton, trawler fleet described in William W. "King Crab Fishing CloSed in Alaska," New Warner, Distant Water (Boston: Little, Brown York Times., October 3, 1983; 1982 survey of 8: Co., 1983). female crab cited in Catherine C. Krueger, "Alaskan King Crab: A Decade of Boom and 6. Japanese per capita fish 'consumption Bust," Institute for Marine Studies, Univer- based on data from FAO, Fishery Statistics sity of Washington, Seattle, Wash., unpub- Catches and Landings. and from Population lished, Mari% 1983. Reference Bureau,Worid PopulationDam- tio Sheet. 16. FAO, Fisheries Department, "Review of World Fishery Resources." 7. Michael K. Orbach, "Fishing in Trou- bled Waters," Einyoument, january/Febru- 17. Ibid; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Chesapeake Bay Program: Find- an' 1980; Barry Lanier, "The Crisis intie ings and Recommendations (Philadelphia: Sep- World Tuna Market," ijolish Marketing Digest tember 1983); decline in shad catch dis-. (FAO), November 1982: FAO, Fishery Statis- ticsCatches and Landings; FAO, Committee cussed in. Robert H. Boyle, "A Rain of Death on Fisheries, "Fishery Commodity:Situation on the Striper?," Sports Illustrated, April 23, and Outlook 1981/83," Rome, July 1983; 1984. Bob Johnstone, "Japanis Number One 18, FAO, Fisheries Department, "Review Squid-Eater of the World," New. Scientist, No- of World Fishery Resources." vember 3, 1983; M. Hotta, "The Japanese 19. Jay L. Maclean and Leticia B. Dixon, Marketforsquid and Cuttlefish," lnfofish 1CLA R. Report 1983' (Manila: International Marketing Digest (FAO), July 19$2. (:center for Living Aquatic Resources Man- 8. FAO, Fishery StatisticsCommodities. agement, 1984). 9. FAO, Fisheries Department, "Review of 20. John R. Beddington and Robert M. the State of World Fishery ,Resources," ,May, "The Harvesting of Interacting Species Rome, July 1983. in a NaturalEcosystem," Scientific American, 10. Ibid. November 1982. I I. Ibid. 21,- Quoted in ibid. 22. .1:tie biological dynamics of 12. C.P.Idyll, Me Anchovy. Crisis," estuaries arft thoroughlydescribed in Bostwick 11.I Scientific American, June 1973. Ketchum, tuarietinuilEnchtsed_Seas (New 13, David L. Flpharty,P1Mtitute for Marine .York:ElsevierScientificPublishing Co., Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, 1983).

Ay Notes (259) 23.- EISA, CJi-eopatake Bay Program. 35. Federal Coordinating Council, .Na- ., tional Aquaculture Development Plan. . 24.: Robert J. Orth and,)(enneth A. Moore, "Chesapettke hay; An bnprecedeilted De- 36. R.T. Lovell, Rt0.-Smitherman, and cline in Submerged Aquatic Vegetation" Sci- G.W. Shell, "Progress and Prospects of Fish ence, October 7, 1983. Farming," in Aaron Aluchtil and Harold 25...EA, Chesapeake..Hay Pragrgm. \Vitae, eds., New Protein Foods Vol. 3: Animal 4 Trot fin Supplies, Part A (New York: Academic 26;Boylo,"RainofDeathon the Press. Inc., 1978). Striper?"; John W. Fr-ece, "State Bans Har- yest of Waning Rockfish,"'llattimore Sun, Sep- 37. China data front' Wor101 Bank, Fishery tember 12, 1984. Sector Policy Paper; Mississippi area in fish farm's from Jeff Giachelli, Catfish Farmers of 27. Peter McGrath and Mary Hagar, "An America, Jackson, Miss., private communica- American Treasure at Risk," Neutioeek, De- tion, April 1984. cember 12, 1983. 38. World Bank. Fishery Sector Policy Paper. 28. Boyle, "Rain of Death on the. Striper?" 39 "U.S. Aquaculture Lags But Could Be- 29. "Turkey Struggles to Save its Seas," an Itnportant Food Source," News Report (1'4 Neu, Scientist. January 14. 1982. tional Academy of Sciences),' March 1978. 30. Aquaculture Development and Coor- 40. Lauren R. Donaldson andXimothy dination Programme, Aid for Aquaculture De-. Joyner, "The Salmonid Fishes as 'Natural velopment. Livestock,i Scientific /lineman, July 1983. 31. Ibid.; Federal Qoordinating Council 41. "Free-Range Salmon," IV> Economist, on Science, engineering, and Technology, October I,1983; Donaldson and Joyner, National Aquaculture Development Plan (Spring- "SalmonidFisher;WilliamJ.McNeil, field, -Va.: National Technical Information "Salmon Ranching: A Growing Industry in Service, September 1983). the North Pacific," Oceanus, Spring 1984; Flu- 32. Share of seafood consumption46"ro- harty, private communication. vided by aquaculture isAuthor's estiate; 42. Donaldson and Joyner, "Salmonid Aquaculture Development and Coordination Fishes." Programme, .4td for Aquaculture Development; Hans Ackeforsand Garl-Gustaf Rosen, 43. McNeil, "Salmon Ranching"; J. H. "Farming. Aquatic Animals," Amino, Vol. 8,, Ryther, ''-Mariculture, Ocean Ranching, and No. 4, .1979. Other Culture-Based Fisheries," BioScience, March 1981. 33. InternationalCenterfor Living Aquatic Resources Management,. The ICI,- 44. Fluharty, private communication. A 101-CLSU Integrated 4 m hied- Fish Farminem- > 45. McNeil, "Sahnon Ranching." ject: Poultry-Fish and Pig-Fish Trials (Manila,. Philippines: 1CLARM and ,central LtizOn 46. Donaldson and Joyner, State University,1981);H.R. Rabayal, Fishes." "Aquaculture in Asia and the Pacific," /WA 47. "Fr.ee-Range Salmono:' Marketing Digest (FAO), January 1983. 18. kbid. ' .34. Richard 1', Lovell, "Fish Culture in the 49. McNeil, "Salmon Ranching." t %atm.' &k w.. Disember, 21 ../9791 FInnitre_deral Cobrdinating Council, Natitmal Aqua- 50. FAO, "Review of Wbrld Fishery Re- cu ctury Development Plan. Cs." 274 -

(26o Notes 0 . . 51. }toted in Gss'en J. "Commer- 'It's Just LiVe Being at a Graveside'," Finan- cial fishing in New Zealand: An Industry cial Times, November 19, 1983. Bent on Extinction," The Ecologist, Vol. 13, k No. 1983. 3. Anthony C.. Tennissen, Nature of Earth MWerials (Englewood Cliffs, Prentice- 52: Wner, Distant Water. Hall, Inc., 1974). 53. U.S. nkvestment from Ftdcral Coor- 4. Sulfur emissions from wedish Ministity dinating Counail: National Aquaculture Deyelop- of Agricultuie, Proceedings: The 1982 Stockholm ment Plan;for international lending, see Conference pn' Acidification of the Environment 'World Bank,-Fishery:Sector Policy, Paper, Aqua- (Stockholm,Sweden:1981); and from Swed- ctilture Development and Coordination Pro- ish Miniitry oftAgkulture, Acidification Today gramme, Ait for Aquaculture Devel4ment, .and and TomorroW (Stockholm, Sweden: 1984; In- Inter-American Development Bank, Economic ternational' Nickef-Compahy emissions from .,.irOd Social Progress in Latin Americakalural Re; Subcommittee on Acid Rain, Still Waters (0t- sources (Washington., D.C.: 1983). tawit, Canada: Ministry of Supply and Ser- 54. McNeil; "Salmon Ranching." vic s, 1981); Mount Saint Helens emissions U.S.EnvironmentalProtection 55. Data from "Indexes of Ex'vessel Pi Age The .Acidic DePosition Phenomenon and for Fish ailid Shellfish, By Years," in NationaL41$ "Effects: Attnirspheric Sciences (Vol. 1, draft) Marine Fish-eries Service, Fisheries of the United (Washington: D.C.: 1983); nitrogen oxide Staas (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of. eirlisions from Fred'FehsenfeldAGasPhase Commerce!yarious annual, issues).", and PreCipitation Acidities in the Colorado *4 56, The. oil/krill ra mentioned by D. Mountains," in Acid 'Rain tthe Rocky Mountait 44, Ncirse, Organisation fo ononl ic Czopera- West Colorado Diparnent of Health,- a Golden, Colo., Hearings, June 2-3, 1983. t to n apdbevelopinen, diSCUSSORCOI nierets *fended to G,b.arney, `Theytirob 5. FOr historical sketches of air pollution 2000 Repotand its Implicationfor. the control, see Erik P. Eacholnk Down to Earth UniakStates,"-fir Maurice Levy and John L. (New York: W, W. Morton & Co., 1982) and Itobilvem, eds., Energy and- Agritulture: Their ''Owin S. Mills, Economics of Envinmental : Interacting, Fultire,s a.(Chur, Switzerland: Har- Qttality(14-ew York: W. W. (Norton'8c Co.,' wovil-AcidericPublishers for The United 1078); einissions "trends from Swedish Mini,- Natifini 1984}. tk Agriculture, Proceedings ay from H21,=. raid Doviand and Arn%Seinb, "Atmospheric 57., ,,Ivfacleanand Nun), ICL.A I'M Report Transport of PollutarM' in D. Drablos and u'1983. 9 e e A. Tollan, eds., Ecological Impact of Acid Precki- 58'. FAO, ',Agri-culture: Toward'2000 (Rome.: (alio% (Oslo, Norwayi SNSF Prqject, 1980),

, .. 6. Environment Canada,United' States- b A. il , Canada Memorandum of Intent en 7ransboundaty 4 ' i -k. . Chapter 5:Protecting Forests from Air.-Air Pollution: Executive Summaries(Otiaw4, I Canada: 1183); Swedish Ministry Of Agrieni- Pollution,and.. 'Acid Rain; . . ., . - ,, . tilrehrProceedings.- -. 1., Edward- C.-,Riug and Chirleilt.2Fritik,-. ."Acid Rain On Acid Spil: A New Perspective," 7. Estimates for Europe' frOM rs N. /. Science; August .5.;? I983., : 4 -Overrein et.ial., Acid Precipitation Effects on For- . est and Fi4h: Repori, df Ike Project. ,-, 2? ThetwSurvey Wak coltiitlPhirkrigikAl- 197201980 (Oslo: Norwegiv 1 nsbach Institute and was referred ; ntrq Research Programme; 1980); estimates `t in4 Jarpesjape Buchan, "Gerriiany's Pyiug Fore fofWtest dkrmanY from Georg H. M.,Krause, .

414

111.1

41, 1

Notes (267 ) private coMmtinication,janum 19134; esti3 Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, Tenn., nn- ' mates for North America from fnviromnent dated. r ,.!, . lt Canada, United States-Canada Memorandum of I ;: 13. Ulrich, "pittigers for the -Forest Eco- Intent; . systeol the to Aciii Precipitation..." . - O. measurements 11.. from) Freed- 14, Vermont reseaichridings from `.Ics mi;ri and T. C. Hutchinson, "Smelter Pollu- timonyOf RichafiTikkisk,:' I.S.'Semte, CQM- tion Near Sudbury; Ontario, Canada, and mittee on 4nvirontOnt u :tic -Works. Effects on Forest Litter Decomposition," in'-. Hearingr,Atine..30, 198.14 Oak Ridge findings T. C. Hutchinson at Havas. ects from S. B. McLaughliti 'et al., "Interactive of Acid Precipitation on Tr istrial Ecosems Etects of Acid Rain and Gaseous Air Pollu- (New York: Plenum Press, 1980). tants oil '

. . t- ,k,. zeitung, June% July 1.983; Von C,'4osch et al.,,,, 12; Cnhanced*rowth cited in Barnhfrd "Ober die Erkrankting der Fichte (Picea abies ..' Ulrich, "Dangers for the Forest Ecosystem .Karst.) in Jen Hochlagen des Bayerischcit '

Due.. to Acid Precipitation," translated for Waldes,"ForstwissenschafiliehesCentmlblott, ,

Jur* r9t33. 't . U.S. Environmental Pt4tection Agency by . s' Literature. 'Research Colitany, Annandak;.t..48. Dainage levelsfor atone cited in Va., undated, and inSwedish Ministryf Ag-, """.i.S.ivedisli Ministry of Agriculture,Proceedings; ,... TicuIture, Acidification Today and.nmtorr a: refetenes to Getman scientists inckude Vohs °',Ahltahamsen, "Effects of .ACid Precini(ion H. Mohr, "Zur Faktorenan4yse4e3 'Baum- .,,.on Soil and Foregt: Leaching of Plant Noire- sterbens'Bemerkungeneines' Pflanzen; iiitip'` in Qrablos and Tollan, Ecological Impact physic:dog,: ''" Allgemeiue Forit-un4fagdzeitung, .14. . ofAcid 'Precipitant* Dale W. johnson,i0"Acid June/July '837 Von. Dr. Bernhard Prinz,

.4\ kkairi ,and Porest Productivity," Oak,... 'Ridge "Gedanken zum Stand der Diskussfon ubefr.. , National,Laboratory, EnvirOnmental Ake Ursache der Waldschaden in der Bundes- I, , (26.2) Notes

republik Deutschland," Der Forst-told Holt- tal Science Technol4y, Vol. 18, No. 5, 1984; wirt, September 1983. the Neth s,France, and Italy refer 19. L J. Puckett, "Acid Rain, Air Pollu- renced 11EnVironsitental Resources Limited, tion, and TreeGrowth in Southeastern New Acid Rain..4,4 Review of the Phenomenon in the EEC York," U. S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, and Europe- (London; Graham & Trotman Ltd., 1981; Richard 1.2Phipps, "Ring Width Analy- P983); East Germany referenced in sis," presented at Symposium'on Air Pollu- John J. Metzler, "Germany Battles Add-Rain tion- and the Productivity of the Forest, Pollution," Journal of Commerce,April 13, Washington, D.C.. October 4-5. 1983. 1983; Romania referred to in ."Romania Launches a Major Tree Planting & Con- 20. Fotleral Minister of Food, Agriculture servation Plan," World Environment Report, and Forestry, "Forest Damage Due to Air June 2,1980; Switzerland damage Rom Poll pion: The" Sitlation WI the Federal Re- Margaret Studer, "Swiss Tackle Air Pollu- -, public of Germany," Bonn, (s1oventher 1982; tion to Keep Fyrests Green," Christian Science Federal Minister of the Interior, "The Fed- Monitor, October 20,1983; relerence to ,eral Government's Reply to the Interpella- various accounts of damage elsewhere -in- tion of the Deputies: Air Pollution, Acid Rain Q. EL Tomlinson, "Die-back of For- . and Deathf Forests," Bonn, August 25, ests- Continuing. Observations," Donitart, 1982, translation fromigthe German by E.J.S. Inc.,Montreal,June 1981.(inchiding Library of Congress, 0o,ngressi Re- "appendices)andStuder, ."SwissTackle' Bundesminister Vr- A seal-4h Service; Der Air Pollution." nahthingr Landwirtschafi rsten,- "Neuartige Waldschaden inin der Bundes- 24. Damage in Scandinavia (tom 'Chlisier epublik Dentschla, il d," Borm,October 1.983; Agren; "Forest Death ih Sweden" and "Norwegian Forest Owners' Anxiou,s About summer 1984 survey mentioned in James M Mitrkhatrt, - "Angst on Autobahn: Would DaMage to Wood! ts," Acid News, January 1984; reference toarnage in Scviet Uniqn Slowdown Aid Trees?," New York Times, Oc- tober 31, 1984. from "Volga Forests Dyingfpott Toile Pollu- tion," Washington. Post, January 619.84. 21. Der Bundesminister Fut Ernatirting, 75. Federil Miniiter ofFood, Agticulture LandwirtschtftandForsten,. "Neuartige and Fores "Forest Datittage' Due to Air 1" Waldsch'adenP; Georg H. M. Krause, "Ftlrest Pollution; K se, private communication; Effects in West Germany," presented at Sym- Edgar Gaertner, "La Mort'cle la Foret," Le k posium o,nAir . . , r Monde Diplomatique, August 1983; J. M. Brad- 22. Qamage.inCzeettoslovakia ley, "What is Killing the Great Forests of ' GetheAll, Tomlinson sand C. Ross Silver- West GetpArty?,::ji'or/d Environment Report, sides; Arid Deposition and Forest rkinage - The August 15 )98K P 4- ,EurOpean Linkage (Montreal: -Domtar, Inc., 26; Arthur H. Johnson and Thomas G. 1982): 6gure for ,the Erz Mountains from Siccama, "Acid Depositio and Forest De- Bayerischen Staafsministeriuths fur Ernah- cline," Environmental' Science & Technology rung, Llandwirtschaft. und ,Fursten, "Wald- Vol. 17, No...7, 1983;.dame in Nprtti Caro- sterben durch Luflverschmutzung," lina and expectations thIttlret deaths wonkt July" 19.83; damage in PolanO. from Eugettlusz be identified loon in other areas from Arthur Pudlis, "Poland's Plight: EtfvironmentDpm- H. jphnson, thr Meets of Acid aged froiii Air. Pollution,Ond Acid Rai ," Rain_ on Forests of the Eastern U.S.," Testi- Ansitio, Vol: 1.2, No. 2; 1988. ,mony befoi4 the U.S; Senate, Committee on' 23. Austria. referenced ih Bette Hileman, Environment and Public Works, Hearing, "Add Rain Meetitttpin Ottitwa," Enviromnen- February 7,; 084. - " 4 Not (263) 27. Camels Hump data documented in elts"; quote from Phillips et al., "Eastern Siccama, Bliss, and Vogelmann. "Decllhe of White Pine Exhibits Growth Retardation." RedSproce"; broader spruce decline documented in Johnson and Siccama. "Acid 33. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Deposition and Forest Decline "; reference to World Pares! Products: Demand and Supply 1990. and 2000(Rome: 1982). commercially valuable spruce from Arthur 11. , Johnson, "Decline of High-Altitude Spruce-. 34. Environmental Resources Ltd.,And Fir Forests," presented It Symposium on Air Rain:AReview of the EEC and Europe. .Polltition; quote is front W.Nogfrlinattn, 35. Von "Catastrophe on CamelsHump," Natural H. Steinlin, "Holzproduzierende History, November1982. ForstwirqehalL" presented at Conference on: Forestry Management: Supplier of Raw 28. A. H.Johnson etal., "Recent Changes Materials and the Environmental. Factor, iii Patterns of Tree Growth Rate in ),he New Gottingen,,West Germany, November 14 Jersey Pirtelands: A 'Possible Effect of Acid 1.!)83. Rain,"Journal of 471:nronmental Quality, Oc- 'tober/Detember 1981. 36. Richard Plpchmatirt' et al., "Pollution is Killing German Forests,"fpurnqiof Forestry, 29. Paul R. Miller et al., "Photochemical. September'1983. Oxidant,ftAir,Pollutant Effects on a Mixed Conifer Forest rcOsystem," U.S. Environ- 37. T.T. Kozlowski, "Impacts of Air Pollu- mental ,Protection Agency; Environmental tion on Forest Ecosystems,"Bioscience,Feb- Research, Laboratory. Corvallis, Ore., 1977; ruary 1.980; United States Forest Service, An Pau) R. Miller, private coonhunication, Octo- Analysis of theTimberSituation in the Lint titi States ber 5, 1983. 4 19,12-2030 (WashingtonD. C.: U. S. Depaft- tnent of AgTiculture, 1982); Thomas F. Ricks, 80. DajpaAge estimatT; froin John Skelly, "Timber Firms Moving to die South as Sw- "Bine- Ridge MountaiA," presentation at lies in NorthwestDiminish," Wall Street four- SyMpositun on Air Pollution; sullies of nal,August f9, 1983.. growth in pines include S:-O. *Phillips et al., "Eastern White1Pine Exhibits Growth Retar- 38.: Slowing 'of growth in valuable species dation 1>y Fluctuating Air PAnant Levels: from Johnson, "Astessing the Effects of Acid Intraqtion of Rainfall,' Age, and Symptom Rain on Forests:'; sulfate deposition figures (' Ekplevion" and "Growth Fluctuation of Lob- from Environment Canada*kl,,UnitedStates- 1 /lolly Pine Due, tO Periodic Air. Pollution Lev- Canada Mentorifidum of Intent, ds: Interaction of Rainfall. and Age,"Phytopa- 39. -Study on economic effects from Rice; thology,June 1977. "Effects of Acid Rain in the Eastern Unitsd 31'.'/Richard J. "Mexico City's States"; raced to test specks from Norman a. Flora Find, Life,Toolo91 to air,,' NewYork Glass et al:, "Effects of Acid Precipitation," 'Times,acptember12,003; "Malaysian Envi- Environmental Science .Z9' Technology, Vol.16, rorunKNOt 4 Pretty Picture,"World Environ- No. 3, 1982. ment . Report;August15, 1983; Maria L. 40, Forest industry Perspective from John Durando and Sergio R. A).agort, "Atmo- A. Thorner, Anyerrcati Paper-frfstitute#a- . spheric Lead in Downtown Guatemala City,': tional Forest Products Association Environ- EnvirpnmertiaiScience & Tefhnoiogy,Vol; 16, mental & Health rrolfram, private conununi otNo., 1, 1982. .. 4 . 0 Decetn*r 1983january 1984a : 32. Reference to lower growth rates in September 1984; Ely Gonick, "A Forest 4 'commercially valuable species fronajohnson, dustry Perspective on Acid DepositiOn," : .."Asses1 .the Effects OT Acid Rain on For- sented ateonference on Acid Rain&Feaf, * - #

'.2.78 (264) Notes Resources, Qtiebec City, Canada, June414, 48. Benoit Baby, "Acid Rain and Forest 1983. Productivity," an interview with Dr. Gilles 41, Raymond J. P. Bronzes, "A Synesfisis of Robltaille, inMilieu,Autumn 1982. Some Acid Rain-Related Forest Research 49. Overrein et al.,Acid Precipitation Effects and the Emerging Conclusions," Etiviron- on Forest and Fish. rrient,Canada, Hull, Quebec, Canada. unpub- 50. `See G. M. Woodwell, "Effects of Pollu- lished, 1981. tion on the Structure and Physiology of Eco- 42. F. H. Boivann. "The Effects of Air systems," in Lorne. H. Russwtirm and Ed- Pollution on the New :ngland Landscape," wardSommerville,eds.,,Man'sNatural Antbio. Vol. 11, No. 6, 1982, Environment: A Systems Approach(North Scitu- 43. H. H. Krause. "A,Mic Atmospheric ate, Mass.: Duxbury Press., 1974) and Bor- Deposition in Eastern North America: Forest mann, "Effects of Air Pollution on the New Resources at Risk/ pres. ned at Conference England 'Landscape." on Acid Rain&tForestResources; Douglas 51. International; Energy Agency, World Martin, "Canada's Wasted Woodlands,"New Energy Outlook(Paris: _Organisation for Eco- ForkTimes, August.28, 1983. nomicCo-operationandDevelopment, 44. Susceptible areas citedin Swedish 1982) Ministry of Agriculture,Acidification Today and 52. Reference to threeSastern bloc coun- Tomorrow;.reference to soil acidity measure- triesfoni"MunichConference Lays ments from "Avid Rain Threatens Southern GroundWork for Sulfur Reduction Accord," ftetnisphere,"World Environment Report.Jan- World EnvironmentReport,July 11, 1984. uary 25, 1984 53.1tichard Schneider, "Acid Precipita- 45: rtin Alexander, "Effects of Acidity tion-and Surface Water Vulnerability on the n Microorganisms and Microbial Processes Western Slopes of thy High Colorado Rock- 'Soil," in Hutchinson and Havas,Effects of ies," inArid Rain in the Rocky Mountain WestL ,Arid Precipitation;Gary S. Hartshorn, "Eco -. kehsenfeld, "Gas Phase and Precipitation logical Implications of Tropical Planvition Acidities." Forestry," in Roger A. Sedjo, TheComparative 4 54. Acidity 'measurements from "Chintz Economics of Plantation Forestry: A Global Assess- races Envirolquental Challenge,"Science, ment(Washington).). t!'.:Resourcesfor the - September 23, 1983, from_ "Chinese Data In- Future, 198.3); for a discussion (Abe Third dicates Serions- Mid Rain Problem," interna- World fuelwoodcrisis. and reforestation tionalWater Report,july/Aupst 1983,tridodif needs, see Sandra Poste-I, "Protecting For- from 'C. Varitzney, "Acid' Rain;-The es(s," in Lester R. Brawn eta l.. State. of the seen Threat," Press Institute. of India, New World I984 (New York: W. W. Nbrtonlk Delhi, India, June 1983; China's energy plans 1984). from Wang Qjngyi and Gu Jian, "How Will ,46. Flubbed- Brook research .from 'G.' E. china Solve Energy Problem ?,"Beijing Re-, Likens et al., "Recovery Of A, Deftirested Eco- view,August 29,ipst}. % system,"ScienCe,Fetipary 3, 1978; added 55. James Bruce, "lkazil Investing 000 effects Vwhole-tree harvesting from Kiwi- -Million To Increaso Its.CcIalProduction," ,.toilIWntal,Resoiirces Ltd., Acid-Rain: A Re- Journal of Commerce,Julie 13, 1983; India's en- view of t .kc and Europi. ergy plans from K.4nrarajan, "India 47. SivecOsh Minislry bf Agriculture,Pro- Energy Supply rolicy anti.- Management," reedings. Natural Regources July 1983;

, ii 0, 6 ; ti Votes ( ,265 ) emissions trends from C. K. Varshney rind J. described to Paul F. Fennelly, "Fluidized Bed K. Ciarg, "A Qpantitative AsselstnekvfSul - combustion,';/-Arnerican Scienku, May /June filr Dioxide Etnistion from.. Fossil no, in 1984; conversiC'in of Minnesota utility boiler India,"Journal of Oft Air Pollution Control AssuA- from "Fostei Wheeler Sells World's Lat-gest ation, November 1928; quor6,41-orti.Varshitey,, Fluidized Bed Boiler," Energy bdity, August "Acid Rain: The Unsten Threat" 13, 1984. 56, Enviromnent0 Resources Ltd., Acid 61. Larry B. Parker and Robert E. TrOM- Rain: A Review of the EEC and Europe; Rolf? buie,, "Mitigating Acid Raid .with Technol- and Michael Cross, "Ovrinany's Acid Ram ogy: Avoiding the 'Scrubbing-Switching. Di- Laws Co Up in Smoke:' New Scientist, -See lemma," U.S. LibraryofCongress,. tember 29, 198Von Ludwig Muller, "Stand Congressional Research Service, Washing- derhnmissionsschutzrechtlichen Bestim- ton 12, C., rime. 1983; "Ohio ,Ediscin. Coal- intingtii int l-Iinhlick auf 11ie Bekainplung des FiretcPlant to Test Simultaneous Removal 91-4 Waldsterbetts,"-Afigemeine Forsr,Zeiteng, Vol. Sulfur, Nitrogen Oxides," Enerp. Daily, Au- 88, Nos 51-52,*1983. gust 30, 1984. 57. Larry B. Parker and Robert E. Trum- 6Z. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Associa- bide, "Qpitortunities for Iticreas :ontrol tion, 'Motor rehtcle. Facts and Figures '83 (De- of Nitrogen Oxides Emissions fro tation- troit, Mich.: 1983); Ando, "Pollution Control ary Sources; Implications for Mitigating Acid in Japan"; "Swiss Air Pollution is Mostly Raid," U.S. Library of Congress, Congressio- Home-Made," World .Environment Report, Oc- nal Research 'Service, Washington D.-C., De- tober 15, 1983; recent EEC developments cember19f4 4 from Charles E. Dole, "West Europe's: Road 58. jumpei Ando, "Pollution Control' in toEmislions Control is Paved with Con- Japan," journal of Japanese Trade & industry, Insion," Chrtstian Science Monitor, July11, No. 5, 1983; see also Gregory. S. Wetstohe 1984. ajd Armin Rosencranz, Acid Ramin Europe 63: Response O(_ lautiese industriesfrom and North America; National Responses to an triter: Ando, "Pollution ContVol in Japan" and Paul national Problem cWashidgton D, C.: Environ- Danish, "Japan Delays Building of Coal- mental Law Institute, 1983). Fired Plants;',' Journal of Commerce, October 59. For a good overview of pollution con- 10, 1983; energy consumption fignres from trol technologies, see "Control Teehnolo- )Korld Energy Industry (San Diego, Czt1if.; gies" (Appendix B); Sn Wetstone and Rosen- Uess Information Display, Inc., 198)3). aranz, Acid !fain in Europe and North America. Set; Christopher Flavin, Nuckar Power! 60. European experiertce with FB.C. from TO Market Test (WaAington D. C.:* World- r'S .-Wrisking Group on the Evaluation of Pollu- wat'th hiStittite, December 1983). don Control-Technology for Coal Combus."... 65. ,The conflict inherent in private use of lion, "Flue Gas Destilfitrization Pilot Study a coniiiionresoulice is described in the classic Followup," Committee on the Challenges of article .-by Carrett. Hgrdin, "The Tragedy. of Modern Society,'North Atlantic Treaty oro- the Commons," Slice, December 13,1.968. nizatiort, Ottawa, Canada, June 1982, and from Environmental Rescr4is Acid 66: Wetstone and Rosencranz, Acid Rath in Rain: A Review of the EEC and Europe; refer- Europe and North America, . . ence 4o Swe project from "Fluidized 67. Gregory S. Wetstoncearifkrmin it..o- tioris At East?," New &len- servcranz,ri.ransboundary Air ollution: fist, J.0e 30, 1,3; 1..t.S. experietfe with FBC The Search for an International Isponse:"

-1- 4 (266) Notes cO. Harvard.. Epvirorimenta/Law Review,Winter andAluntinum,"CalspanCorporation, 1984. Iltiffalo, N.Y., 1976. 68. EEC policy process and efforts to date 73. Term used by David J. Rose et al., Glo- are described in Wetstone and Rosencranz, bal Energy Futuris and COI-Induced Climate Acid Rain in Europe and North America;Com- Change(Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts In- mission attic European Communities, "Pro- stitute of Technology, 1983). posal for a Council Directive on the LiiiiNta- lion of Emissions of Pollutants into the Air from Lage Combustion Plants," Brussels, Chapter 6: Conserving Biological Diver- December 15, 1988; Gregory S. Wetstone, sity private communication, Febi'uary 1984; Fred 1. Lynn Margulis and Karlene V. Pearce, "MPs Back Curbs on Acid Rain,"New Schwartz,Five Kingdot ns: An Illustrated Guide to Sculpt,September 6, 1984. the Phyla of Life on Earth (SanFrancisco: W. 11 69. Ozone damage to crops documented Freeman and Co., 1982); Chris Peat and Will in lEffectsli4 l tr Pollution, on Farm Commodities, Diver, "First Signs of Life on Earth,"New SymposiumProceedings, IzaakWalton Scientist, September 16, 1982. League, Washington D.C., February18, 2. Elliott A. Norse and Roger E. McManus, "Ecology and Living ResourcesBiological 70. For effecks of acid rain on crops, see Diversity,"in Council On Environmental Rice, "The Effects of Acid Rain in the Eastern Quality, EnvironmentalQuality 1980(Wash- United States"; acid rain's effect on materials ington,D.C.: U.S. Government Printing describedin Akephen U. Scholle, "Acid Office, 1980); Elliott A. Norse, "The Value of Deposition and the Materials Damage Ques- Species- for Agriculture, Medicine, and In- tion,"Environment, October 1983; corrosion dustry," presented at Extiinctions, the First of plumbing, leachil of aluminum, and Annual National 'oological Park Synipo7 other effects described in Swedish Ministry of sium, Washington, D.C., SeptemberI1, Agriculture-IcidificationToday and Tomorrow.- 1982. 71. Estimates of capital costs fotzscrtibbers 3. Robert and Christine Prescott- Allen, vary considerably. This calculation is based Genes front the Wild: Using Wild Genetic Resources on a range of $150-300-per kilowatt. Admin- for Food and _Raw Materials(Washington, D.C.: istering a.federal program of appliance effi-'International Institute for Environment and ciency. 'Standards is estimated to cost $3.5 Development, 1983). million per year. Norris McDotiald,, Environ- 4. 'Paul andAnne-Ehrlicif,Extinction(New mental.PolicyInstitute; Washington. D.C., York: Random House, 1981). ..i..eprivate communication, Febwary 1984. Over 20 years, and assuming a.7 percent discount 6. James Lov.elock,Gaia: A New Look at Life rate, the present value cost of the program is on Earth(New York: Oxford University Press, less than $40 million. 1979). A ti 72. Canadian figures from Subcominittee (6. David- F. Salisbury, "Clonitig Genes on Acid Rain.StillWatirs; recycling figures Rom Extinct Animals May Give Researchers. Insights on EvOlution," Christian frotn William U. Chandler,Materials Recycling: Science )1oni- The Virtue of Necessity(Washington, D.C.: tor,June 7, 1984; "Geties of Extinct Animal Worldwatch. insiitute, October 1983); alumi- Are Cloned,"Washington Post,June 6, 1984. num Igures from R. C. Ziegler, "Friviron- 7. batiiel Simberloff,,'"fhe Next Mass Ex mentf 4mpacts of Virgin Ord Recycled-Steel tinction?,"Garden,'Mach/April 1984; Roger

rk , Notes (a 67) Lewin "rxtinctions and the History of Life," 18. Peter Raven, "Global Futures: The Science.September 2, 1983. Third World," presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Ad- :8. Richard A. Kerr. "isotopes Add Sup- vanceent of Science, New York, May 25, Science,November port for Asteroid Impact," 1984. 11, 1983; Philip J. Hilts. "Comet-Extinction Link.GainrSupport," WashingtonRost.,April 19. John Carey, "Mangroves...Swamps 20, 1984; John Noble Wilford, "Study Hints Nobody Likes."International lilldlife,Septem- Extinctions Strike in SetIntervals," New York ber/October 1982; International Union for Tunes,December I I. 1983; Lewin, "Extinc- the Conservation of Natu'e and Natural Re- .tions and the History of Life." sources (IUCN),Global Status of Mangrove Eco- -systeml, Commission on Ecology Papers No. 3 9. Steven M. Stanley, "Mass Extinctions in (Gland, Switzerland: 1983). the Ocean,"Scientific American,June 1981. 20. "Wound in the World," /14aiveek, July 411, 10. george Gaylord Simpson, Fossilsand 13s 1984; rate of deforestation in Southeast the History of Life(New York: Scientific Ameri- Asia from U.S. Office of Technology Assess- can Library, 1984). ment,Techntilogies to Sustain Tropical Forest Re- sources(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government 11. Ehrlich and Ebglich. Extinction. Printing Office, 1984). V2. NormanMyers, ThePimarySource 2.1. "Wound in the World"; Bayard Web- (New York: W. W. NortOn & Co., 1984); Sim- ster, "Devastated Forest Offers A Rare View berbff,"TheNext Mass xtinction?"; of Rebirth,"NewYork Times, April 24, 1984. Thifmas E, Lovejoy, World Wildlife Fund- U.S., Washington, D.C., private communica- 22. "Wound in the World." tion, August 29, 1984. 23. E-Salmi and Peter B. Vose, "Ama- . 13. Julie Ann Miller, "Entomologist's Par- zon Ba.. stem in Equilibrium,"Science, adise,"ScienceNines, June 2, 1984. July 13, 1984; E. Salati, T.E. Lovejoy, and P.B. Vose, "Precipitation and Water Recy- 14. Ibid. cling in Tropical Rain Forests (with Special 15. Council on Environmental Qnality. Reference to the Amazon Basin),"The Envi- and U.S. Department ofState,The Global ronmentalist,Vol. 3, No 1, 1983. 2000 Report4,the President,olume 2, The Tech- 24. Simberloff, "The Next Mass Extinc- meal Deport(Washington, D. 1: U.S. Govern- tion?" neT, Priming Office, 1980). , . 25. Margulis andSchwartz, Five Kingdoms. v't 16. Thomas E. Lovejoy, "Refugia, Re- 26. Donald Duvick, "Genetic Diversity in fuges and Minimum Critical Size: Problems Major Farm Crops on the Farm and In Re- in the Conservation of the Neotropical Her- serve," presented At the 13th International .petofauna." in William E. Duellman, ed.,The Bolanical &tigress, Sydney, AustraliaAy- South AmericanWerpetofauna:' Its Origin:. Evolu- gust' 28, 1981. tion, and Dispersal(Lawrence, Kans.: The Mu- 45P-4 seum of Natural History. The University of 27. National Academy of Sciences, Cetetic' Kansas, 1979). .1`ninerabilityof lajor Crops(Wa'shington, D.C.: 1972). . 17. Thomas. E. Lovejoy and Eneas Salati, "Precipitating Change inAmazonia,"id' 28. T.T. Chang, "PoriservatioNi tof Rice iyGenetic-Resources:Luxury or Necessity?," ,rmilioF.Merv,ed.,The ,Dilemmaof "s,Scienci, April 20, 1984. * AmazonianDevelopment(Boulder, Co16.: Wst- view Press, 1983). 29, Ibid. 4Ix , f

Jr, a 282-

.Atit 4. 1. vro . (268) Notes 30. Garrison Wilkes, "Current Status of and Opportunities,:'(typescript),Nairobi, Crop Plaeit Germplasna," CRC Critical Reviews 1983. in Plant Science Vol. 1, No, 2, 1983. 43. Florencio Zainbrana, "Seeds of Gold," 31. Plucknett et, al., "Crop Germ-_. IDRC Reports, August 1982; David F. Cusack, plasm Conservation and Developing Coun- "Qpinua: Grain of the Incas," The Ecologist, tries:: Science, April 8, 1983. January 1984. 32. Ibid. 44. "Grains: Exploring New Harveits," The CornucopiaProject Newsletter- (Emmaus, 33. Wilkes, "raiment Status of Crop Plant Pa.), SuMmer 1983; G.H. Grubben and D. Germplasm." II. van Sloten, Genetic Resources of Amaranths: A 34. United Nations Food and Agriculture Global Ptan of Action (Rome: International Organization, "Draft Report of Plenary- Part Board for Plant Genetic Resources, February 1981). 8 (from CoMmission II)," Rome, November r. 22, 1983; John Walsh, "Seeds of Dissension 45. Ward Van Buren Lassoe, "Jojoba Oil: Sprout at FAO," Science, .January 13, 1984. Another Price Drop," _primal of Commerce, 35. D.L. Plucknett, Consultative Group on May 22,1984; "Responding to Jojoba's International Agricultural Research, Wash- Lure," Farmline, April 1984; informationon ington, D.C., private communication, July vernonia from"U.S.PlantExploration. 12, 1984. Efforts Result in 'Very Promising' Potential New Crop for Third World Countries," Di- 36. Pioneer Hi -Bred International, versity, March /April 1984. Executive Surnmy of the 1983 Plant Breeding Research Forum (Des Moines, Iowa: 1984). 46. "Developing Guayule (Natural Rub- ber) as a Comniercial Crop," in U.S, Office of 37. Donald N. Duvick, "Major Unite Technology Assessment, Water-Related Tech- States Crops in 1976," Annals of the New In nologies for Sustainable Agriculture in Arid/Semi- Academy of Stiences, February 25, 1977. arid Lands: Selected Foreign Experience (Wash- 38. Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species, ington, D.C;aiU.S. Government Printing Mentor Edition (New York: New American Office, 1983T. Library, 1958). 47. NI tion a) Academy of Sciences, Fire- 39. National Academy of Sciences, Little- wood Crops: Shrub and Tree v cies, for Energy Productiim Volume 2 (W Known Asian Animals with a Promising Economic ton,. DO Na- tional Academy Press, 19 :3); Christer Palm- Future (Washington, DX-:-National Academy berg, "A Vital Fiterwootl Gene Pool is in Dan- Press, 1983). ger," Unasylva, Number 133, 198, 40. NalVieimexer, "Unconventional . 48, Winston J.Brill,"Agricn oral Mi- Livestock," Ceres, November/December crobiology," Scientific American, September 1983; -Extinct; Ox Breeding Hopes," 1981. . Mazingira, March 1984; "Wildlife Watch," Asiaweek, Jut 15, 1984; National Academy of 49. R.S. Chalet f, "Isolation of Agronomi- Sciences, Little-Known Asian Animals; Noel cally Useful Mutants from Plant COI Cul- tures," Science, February 11, 1983. Vietmeyer, "Hog Wild," international Wildlife, ..$ May/June 1984. 50. U.S. Office of Technology Assess- ment, Commercial Biotechnology: An International 41. Viettneyer, "Hog Wild." Analysis (Washington, D.C.: 111.S, Govern- 42. United Nations t,EnvironmentPro- ment Printing Office, 1984); U.S. Office of gramme, "Animal Genetic Resouirces: Needs. .. Technology Assessment, Plants: The Potentials

.4 2 3 Notes (269 ) for Extracting Protein, kedicine3, and Other Useful 62. Eric Leber and Michael K.41Verginan, ChemicalsWorkshop Proceedings (Washington, "Biotechnology's Vast IMplications Tor En- U.S. Government Printing Office, Sep- ergy and the Environment," Public Power, tember 1983). July/August 1983. 51. Limitations on regeneration from tis- 63. Barton and Brill, "Prospects"; Philip sue culture discussed in Office of Technology -;! M. Boffey, "Plans to Release New Organisms Assessment, Commercial Biotechnology;con, into Nature Spur Concern," New York Times. straints on selecting useful traits discussed in June 12, 1984. Chaleff, "Isolation of Agronomically Useful 64. Robert C. Cowan, "US Officials Face Mutants." Major Hurdles in Regulating Genetic Engi- 52. James F. Shepard etal.,"Genetic neering," Christian Science Monitor, June 1, Transfer intants Through Interspecific 1984; Philip M. Boffey, "Splitting Hairs Over Prototdast F'on,"Science,February11, Splitting Genes," New York Times, June 27, 1983; Brill, Microbiology." 1984. , 53. Kenneth A. B n arid Winston. ,- J. 65. Brill, "Agricultural Microbiology." Brill, "Prospects in P genetic Engineer- 66. George M.' Woodwell, On the Limits ing," Science, February 1 1983. of Nature," prepared for The Global Possi- 54. A. Caplan et at., "introduction of Ge- ble Conference, World Resources Institute, netic' Material into Plant Cells," Science,No- Wye, Md., May 5, 1984. t vember 18, 1983; a report of bacteria capable 67. Mi lad E. Souand Bruce A. Wilcox, bf introducing genes into some members of eds., Conservation Biology (Sunderland, Mass.: the grass family appears in "Trojan .,Bug," Sinauer Assocides, Inc., 1980); conservation The Economist, October 13, 1984. genetics is .discussed in O.H. Frankel,- "Ge- 55. Barton and Brill, "Prospects." netic Diverkity, Ecosystem Conservation,and Evolutionary Responsibility," in F. DiCastri, 56. Brill, "Agricultural Microbiology." W. G. Baker, and M. Hadley, eds., Ecology 57.Harris Brotman. "Engineeringtht; in Practice Part 1: Ecosystem Management (Dub- Birth of Ca New York Times Magazine, lin: Tycooly International. Publishing Ltd.. May l5, 1. 1984) '-58. Ibid.; estimate of market for biotech- 68. Myers, The Primary Source; Mark J. Plot7. products from Office ortcchnology kin, Harvard Botanical Museum, Cambridge, Assessment, Commercial Biotechnology. Mass., private communication, May 30, 1984; Mark J. Plotkin,'Ethnobotany, Conserva- 59- David Dickson, "UNIDO Hopes for" tion, and the Future of the Tropical Forest," Biotechnology Center," Science, Septmber in Russell A. Mittermeier and MarkJ. 30., 1983;DavidDickson, "India and Italy to eds., Primates and.lhe Tropical Forest (Washing- Share Biotechnology Center," Snence,"April ton, Rt.: World Wildlife Fund-U.S. and the 27_1984. L.B.N Leakey FoundatiOn,1983); World 60. MIRCEN News No.5(Path), May Wildlife ' Flind-U.S.,Annual Report1983 1989, (Washington, D,C.: 1983). 61. Allen T. Bull, Geoffrey Holt, and Mal- 69. Darwin, Gilgit' of Species. colm D. Lilly, BiotechnOlogy'International Trends 70. IUCN, The 11.101 Plant Red Data Book and Prospects(Paris: Organisation for Eco- (Gland, Switzerland: 1978, reprinted 1980); nomicCo-Operation Ind'Development, IUCN, The IUCN Mammal Red Data Book Part 1982).. I: Threatened Mar.nalian Taxa of the Americas 70) Notes and the Au.stralcuran Zaographic Region (Exclud- 77. Ira Rubinoff, "Tropical Forests: Can ingCetacea)(Gland,Switzerland:t982); We Afford Not to Give Them a Future?," The IUCN1 The !MN Amphibia-Reptilia Red Data Ecologist, November /December 1982. Book 'Part1: Testudines, Crocodylia, Rhyncoce- 78. Robert and Christine PreScott-Atten, phalia (Gland, Switzerland: 1982); IUCN, The "Park Your Genes: Protected Areas as,In Sit:: HICN Invertibrate Red Data Book (Gland, Swit- Cerieb'anks for the Maintenance of W4Id,1!!-- Ge- zerland:1983); International Council for netic Resources." presented at the World Bird Preservation, Endangered BirdsOf (he National Parks Congress, Bali, Indonesia, World: The ICBP Bird Red Data Book (Washing- October 17, 1982. ton, D.C:: Smithsonian InstitutionPrjVit 1981). 79. "World, BankIss'uesFirstOfficial Statement on Environmental Policies," World 71. IUCN invertebrate categories from Environmemt Report, June 13, 1984; Woodwell, Mark Collins and Susan Wells, "Inverte- "On the Limits of Nature''; Philip M. realm- bratesWho Needs Themi," New Scientist, sick. "Brazil's Amazon Settlement May 19, 1983; status of national, protection Schemes," Habitat International, Vol,ff, No. 1, efforts itom Thomas S. Elias, "Rare and En- 198,4; Nicholas Guppy. "Tropical Deforesta- dangered Species of plantsThe Soviet tion: A Global- View," Foreign Affitirs, Spring Side," Science, January 7, 1983. and Cather- 1984. ine Fuller, World Wildlife 'mid-US:, Wash- ington, D.e., private communication, Sep; 80. Rtibinoff.!..'TropicalForests";Ira Rithinoft, "If We Lime the Tropical Forests, tembei. 18. 1984. No Birds Will Sing," 117ashington Post, August 72. Laura Tangley, "Protecting the 'Insig- 5, 1984; nificant'," Bioscience, July /August 1984;-"ffe- 81: Gumiy, 'Tropical Deforestation." view of Invertebrate Wildlife for Listing as Endangered or Threatened Species." Federal 82. Frankel, "Genetic Diversity, Ecosys- Register, Vol. 49, No. (00, May 22, 1984. tem Conservation, and Evolutionary Respon- sibility." 73. Thomas E. Lovejoy et al., "Ecovystem' Decay of Amazon Forest Remnants," in Mat- thew It Nitecki,. ed.,P.'xiinctions (Chicago:I Chapter 7. increasing Energy Efftriency University of Chicagb Press, 1984); Roger Lewin, "Parks: flow Big is Big Eiiough?," Sci- 1. For a discussion of energy demand ence, /lawny 10; 1984. modeling, see John H. Gibbons and William U. Chandler, ,Energy: The Conservation Revoln- 74. Jeremy' Harrison. Kenton Miller, and (ion (New York: Plenum Press:1981). Jeffrey McNeely, "The World Coverage of Protected Meas: w Developutent Goals and 2. SeeU.AaticPnalAcademy of Sciences, Environmeirtal Needs," Ambio, Vol. 1,1, No. ihanging Climate: Repo.airt of the Carbon Dioxide 5, 1982. Assessment Committees ( Washington, D.C.: Na- tional Academy Press, 1983), ql'ephen Seidel 75. Margaret R. Biswas, "Biosphere Re- and, Dale Keyes,. Can We Delay A Greathouse servesA World Network of Protection," Warming? (Washington; D.C,: U.S. Envirob- iibazingira, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1983; iltrmation mental.Protection Agety, 1983), and Wit- on. Brazil and Africa from lovejtry, private ham W. Kellogg and Robert Schware, "Soci- connthunication.- ety., Science and Climate Change," 'Foreign Affairs, Summer 1982. . 76. Norse and Mciv,anus, pi- versity.r; Norman Myers, "Genetic ReSoudes 3. An international survey of 328 organi- in Jeopardy," Arabic,Vol. 13, No. 3, 1984 zations that have published energy demand

2 S ti Notes , - (271) projections wIts undertaken for the Interna- national Energy Annual 1982 (WashiPgton, tional Energy Workshop. The "median"pro- D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, 1983); Na- jection for the year 2000 was 485 ekajoules. dine Lihach and Stephen Pertusicilo, "Evolu- Sec Alan S. Manne and Leo Sclwattenholzer, tion in Lighting," EPRI Journal, June 1984. "International Energy Workshop: A Sum- e mary of the 1983 Poll Responses," The Energy 9. UNECE, An Energy Efficient Future; An- Journal, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1984: For projections drea N. Ketoff (International Energy Studies, beyond the year 2000 commonly used in Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, analysis of-the global carbon dioxide prob- Calif.), "Facts and Prospects of the Italian lem, see J. Edmonds et al., An Ariaiy.iii of Possi- End-Use Energy Skucture," Rolf Batiersch- ble Future Atmospheric Retention of Fossil Fuel mid( (Institute for Applied Systems Analysis CO2 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of and Prognosis, flanoVer, West Gen-envy), Energy, 1984). "An End-Use Oriented Energy Strategy for the Federal Republic of Germany'' andCan 4. Mamie and Schrattenholzer.' "Interna- Marie Martin (Institute Economiqueet Juri- tional Energy Workshop: 1983 Poll Re- clique do l'Energie), "AlternativeEnergy sponses. Strategies for France," all presenteda the 5." See Scenario 8, Appendix, inEcnomis Global Workshop on End-Use EnergyStrate- et al., Possible Future Atmospheric Retention of gies, Sao Pato, Brazil, June 4-15, 1984. Coy. 10. Marc RoSs, ',..,'Industrial Energy Con- 6. See, for example, William U. Chandler. servation," Natural Resources Journal,Apri) The Myth of TrA: Conservation and Development 1984. intheTennesseetrolley,1931-1983 (Cam- .11. HarukiTsuchik'a(Research 'Institute\k bridge, Mass.: Ballinger Publishing Com- for Systems Technology, Tokyo, Japan), pany, 1984); Edward Goldsmith and Nicho- "Case Study on Japan," presentedat the Glo- las flildvard, The Social alid Environmental bal Workshop on End-Use Energy Strategies, Effects of Large .Dams, Volume 1(Cornwall, Sao Paulo, Brazil, June 4-15, 1984; World U:K.: The Wadebridge Ecological Centre, Bank, Energy Efficiency ni the Steel Industry with 1984); Martin Weil, "Ilxdropower," The Emphasis on the Developmg Countries (Washing- China Business Review, July/August 1982; Paul ton, D.C.: 1984).. Aspeliti and Silvio Coelho dos Santos, Indian Areas Threatened by Hydroelectric Projects in Brazil 12. Martin', "AlternativeEnergy Strategies (Copenhagen, Denmark: Internattimal Work for France." Group for Indigenous Afpirs, 1981). 13. Energy intensity of U.S. production 7. M. Desmond Fitzgerald andGerald from Ross, "Industrial Energy Conserva- Pollio,"Fina.ncMg Energy Developments tion"; Ket-ca "Italian End-Use Energy Struc- 19143-2000," Chemical Bank,New York,un- ture"; Bauerschmidt, "End-Use Strategy for dated. Federal Republic of Get-many." 8. Commercial eriergyuses by 15 coun- 14. Jose Goldemberg et 111 "Brazil: A tries from World Bank, World Development Re- Study on End-ise Energy Strategy,"pre- port198-1 (New York: Oxford University sented;;- he global Workshop on End-Use Press,1984);United Nations Economic Energy' SaO Patllo, Brazil, June Commission for Europe (UNECE), An Eni). 4-15 1984; CE, An Energy Efficient Future; Effictent Future: Prospects for Europe and North World Bank, Energy Efficiency in the Steel Indus- America .(tendon: ButteSworths, 1983); U.S. try, savings with most-epient lights from En-. 15. Ketolf, "Italian End-Use Energy Struc- ergy Information Administration (ETA), Inter- ture"; Spain's efficiency in steel-making from

286 (272) . Notes

World Bank, EnergyEfficiencyin theSteel -Indus- Goldemberg et al., "Brazil: End-Use try;use of electric arc furnace from Jack R. Strategy." Miller. "Steel Minimills,"ScientificAmerican. 23.. Miller, "Steel Minimills"; F.T, Spar- May 1984; steel recycling from imports, and row, Eiiingyand Materials Flows in the Iron and U.Chandler, worldrate; from Wilhani SteelIndustry(Springfield. National MatenalsRecycling:The1.111wof Necessity Technical information Service, April 1982); (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Institute, OTA, IndustrialEnergy Use ;World Bank, En- October 1983). ergyEfficiencyinthe Steel Industry;Donald F. 16. Various rates of return on investments Barnett and Louis Schorsch,Steel: Upheaval in from World Bank, Energy Efficiency' in theSteel a Basicindustry.,(Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger Industryand from U.S. Office of Technology Publishing Co., 1983).' AssesSment (OTA),industriatEnergyUse 24. .Q.1-A,industrialEnergyUse; World (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Prin- 'Bank;Energy Efficiency in the SteelIndustry. Note ,ting Office, June I 983);[Ross, "Industrial En- that capital costs are -iven in terms of tons of ergy Conservation:" annual production capacity, and Wit total 17. U.S. use of open hearth furn ace from cost includes energy, "labor: and- amortized capital on a per-ton-produced basis. OTA, IndustrialEnergy,Use;other countries 41111, from World Bank,Energy Efficiencyin theStol 25. Goldemberg et al., "Brazil: End-Use Industry. Strategy." 18. World Bank,Energy Efficiency in the Steel 26. Chandler,Materials Recycling: TileVirtue Industry. of Nece.stity. 19.UNEc E, AnEnergy. Efficient Futurr 27. Tsuchiya, "Case Study oti Japan."

20. Ed A. Heweti,Energy, Economics, and 28. SS.Shen,Energy and Materials Mowscin Foreign Policy in the Soviet Union(Washington, the Production ofPrimary Aluminum (Sprinkc- D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1984); Sumer C. field, V:r.: National Technical information Aggarwai, "Managing Material Shortages: Service, October 1981); United Nations En- The Russian Way,"Columbia Journal of,World vironment Programme; "Iddustry and Envi- ;, Business,Fall 1980. ti ronment,Nairobi, Kenya, July/September 1983; Organisation for Economic Co- opera- 21. The uncertainty about introducing tion and Development (OECD),Alurnirium In- this technology is indicated in news *ories dustry: Energy7.1spects of Structural (Sing((Paris: such as ';The Steelworkers Dig in Against a 1983); Coldemberg et al., "Brazil: End-Use Cleveland Minimilf,"BusinessWeek, January St rategy "; UNECE,AnEnergyEfficient Ftittire; 23, 1984, and Stev&i Greenhdfuse, "Mini- Bauerschmidt, "End-Use Strategy for Ped- mills: Steel's Bright Star,"New York Times, -ral Republic of Germany." .. February 24, 1984. 'lc 29. r.or an orview of industrial energy 22. The implied rate of efficiency im- conservation, se elvin H. Chiogioji,Indus- provement in the mid-range projection of trialEnerky Comet firm (NeW York: Marcel Edmonds etal.,,Possible Future Atmospheric Re- 'Dekker, Inc., 1979). tention ofCO, (Scenario B) is 0.8 percent per year. If efficiency in Soviet 30. Howard S. Geller, "The Potential for steel- making were consistent with this rate, it Electrick Cc nserption in Brazil," American. Council for un Energy-Efficient Ecemomy, would require 68 years to reduce the current level of energy use per ton in the Soviet Washington, D.C., February.1984, haft. Union (31 gigajoules) to the current Japa- 31. N. Mohan, "Techniques for Energy nese 'level . (18 gigajoules). Brazilian. plans, Conservation in AC Motor: -Drive Systems,"

'287 prepared for the Electric Poivi!r Research In- year, f6 Miles per gallon, and 125 million stitute. Palo Alto.; September 1981, cars. 32. 0TA., industrial Energy (.'sr,." 40. UOY.CE, An Energy Efficient future. 33. H.N. llersh, Energy and Matenals. Rolm Goldemberg et al., "Brazil: End-Use in the Production (.; Y Pulp and Paper (Siningfteld,.. Strategy." Va.; National Technical Information Service' -02. Ibid. May 1981). ,. Jose laitzenberger, thnon for the Cdn- L . 34. Chandler, Materials Recycling: The VI, seivatimi of Nattur, Rio Grande do Sul, Bra- ,of :Vecessity. priv,ate coMmunication, September 20, 35. Bantrschmidt. :`End-Use Strategy for 1084. Federal Republic of Genn,itkiy." Tit7 energy . intensity of cerimui industry declifted,:it an' 44. Goldemberg et ,3-01:, "Brazil: End-Use. annual catt of 4.6, ipercent per year.after Strategy '; see also OTA, l cteased Automobile 1979. Rates of rottn,i`on chemical industry ,Puel Efficiency and Synthetic Fuel (1ita'sliingto6. investments from °TA, ltidustrilnergit'Se. D.C.:U.S. Goverpment PrintingOffice, 1982), and Charles Gray Jr. and.Prank von 36. "PET Plastic Recovgy,' peso0-se Keg- I-tippet, "The Fuel Ecor -nny o(; light Vehi- cling,March/April 1083; Gaines; and cles," Scientific American, aiy4981. S.Y. Shen, Energy and Materials Flaws itithe -45. R. Feast, "Volvo;lows its Cat- of'the Production -of QlefinsandThei; penuatives Future,'' Automotive Ay,. .(Springfield. Va.: National Technical Infor- July 4,1983; D. Scott and J. Yamaguchi.I Ugh Performance mation Service, August .1980). with Economy Engine inffira-Light Betty," 37. J.E. Sapp, Enerr and- Materials Mores in Automotive Engineering. A61 1983; J.P. -Nor- the Cement industry (Springfield, Va.: National hye,'.:Light-WeightFtl-Sipper Gets 56 Technical Information Service, June 1981); mpg," Popular Science, M, 1982, as cited in U.S, cement prodiV'tionand energy con- Goldemberg et al., "Be F..ncf.Use Strat;: sumption from U.S. Department of Interior, .egy." t ' Bureau ofMines, Minerals Yearbook, 1982, Vol- 46. These ume 1 (Washington, U.S. Government calculations iiiterake fuel economy of cal-s in Printing Office, 1983): Hewett, Energy, Eco- Iraiil is"..about V)* miles per gallon,, Chat car are th-iven about nomics, and Foreig4 Policy in' the Soviet Union; 9,360 miles:per year, alitd tt Car ownerskiiii 'Hugh Saddler, "..Energy Supply and Demand ,9. in Australia:4A Statistical Compendium:" grows atipercrat Tfiif-myth assumption presented at the Global Workshop on. End- resents a scoligiderabledeclinefrop the 7 cent of the east, five yesars, whith was t a - . Use Energy Strategies: Sao Paulo, Brarsil, 'lune 4-15, 1984: West European data from b higt, growth in 'auto ownership spite the stvere recession. The actual Bureau of MineMinerals Kearbook, 1982, Vol. growt t rk fats declined, hoWever, from 1. 'about ;2 percent per yCarduing thvevettl 38. Derived from Edmonds et al.,. Possible tics. Goldemberg et al.,"Brazil:' Erid-Use Ftdure Atmospheric Retention of CU, and from Stategx." UNECE. An Energy Efficient Future. 47. See, "GM Says It Will Lautich CV'l' In 39. Theseiestimates'assumc that the aver- Europe*Soon Ward's Nigitte Vpdate, July 1,' tige world car is driven 8,500 miles per year, 1983, as cited in Goldeincherg.et al., "Brazil: .obtains 21 miles per gallon of fuel, and that STitegy..".But note also that prob..' . apptoximaty 353 million cars exist, The as- lems with the mass production of CNTs has sumptions,it U.S. cars are 10,000 Wes per)caused $30-0114 overruns at Van Nane

1,4 (271) Notes Transmissie in Holland. The company is fStockholm: Swedish Council for Building being reorganized to fhcrease efficiency;see Research, 1984). An English version. and ,Waria Automotive Reports, August 27, 1984,as summary Was submitted to Energy Economics,, cited in the U.S. Department of Energy, Journal of till Intel-national Association of Monthly Data Report, September 14, 1984. Energy Econoliaists, According to Schipper, U. Chandler, "The Fuel Efficiency of figurare calrulated in terms of useful ener- Tires by Manufacturer and Model,'' Environ- gy/degree day /square meter of floorspace. metal Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.,' Floor spaceestimateinclude all dwellings 'September. 1981. t. ;findarcsomewhatunce ant. Useful energy is 48. Bauerschidt, ';End-Use Strategy fbt!'% derived from actual energy consumed, figur- Federal Republic of Germany." ing liqUid and gaseous fuels at, titi percent 49. UNECE:, An Energy Efficatit Futiire, conversion efficiency,. electricity and district heating at 100 percent efficiency, wood and 50. Martin, "Alleviative Energy Strategies coal at 55 percent eqiciency. The actual mix fir France"; UNECE, An Energy Effiheni of fuels varies consideraBly from country to lure. country and over time. See also, Bent Peter- 51. R.I. Salalvu (University oftagds, Nig- sen, "The Whish Energy-Conservation Pro- eria), "End Use Energy Study, Nigeria," Pie- ,gram in Buildings,: tin American Council Tor sented at the Global Workshop on End-Use anEnergy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE). Energy Strategies, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Junet1 Doing Better: Setting .-in Agenda for the Second 15, 1984. Decade, Vol. J (Proceedings from the panelon 52. See, for example,. Gabriel Roth and Progranis Outside of the United States) (Washington, 1).C.: 1984). George G. Wynne, Writing from Abroad Free EnterprizeUrbaniYansportation (London:Trans- 57. Lee Scbippv, "Residential Energy iction Books, 1982), Herbert H. Werlin, Ur- Use in the OECD: 1970-1982The Bottom- ban TranspOrtation Systems in the Develop- Up Approarh," and "Energy Efficient -Nous- ing Woild," Eicistics, May/June 1984, and J. Mg in Sweden," in ACEEE, Doing Better, V I. Diandas, "Alternative Approaches to`Trans2 port in Third World Cities: Issues in Equity and Accessibility," F,kistics, May/June 1984. 58. Charles A. Ficner, "The Evolution To- 11. ward; R-2000: Past Eiiperiences and Current 511. V.M. Maslenikov, '.'Specihc Features of Directions ohhe Canadian Energy Conserva- the Development of the USSR Fuel-and- tion Effort," in 6C,EF,E, Doing Bette; Vol. J. Energy Complex," presented at the Global Workshop on End-Use Energy strategies, 59. Savingsestimated. by Worldwatch Sao Paulo,-Braziljune 4-45, 1984; UNECE, from Fierier,. "The Evolution Towards R- 2000," and from EIA, International Energy An- An Energy, Efficient Future;- Hew"ett, Energy, Eco nomics, and Foreign Policy in the Soviet Union. nual 1982. 54. Goldemberg et al.,Brazil: End -Use 60. John P. Kesselring, Robert M. Kendall, Strtegy?: and Richard. 14 Schreiber, "Radiant Fiber Burners for Gas-Fired Appliances and Equip- 55. Problems with U.S. railroads from Al ment," and William H. Thrasher, Robert J. Lewis, former Vice President, Louisville and Kolodgy, and James.). Puller, "Development Nashville Railroad, private communication, of a Space Heater and a 'Residential Water 1976; construction of waterways to compete Heater Based on the Pulse Combustion with rail from Chandler, The Myth of TM. 4 ACEEE, Doing Better, Vol. E `" 56.FrontLee Schipper, internatione/thetn- e.eedings from the Panel on Appliances and fooelseavBostaedernadsEnergifoerbrukning Equipment). I 29 cOPY:AVAILABLki et

1 e

Notes (275 )

61. Howard 9. Geller, "Efficient ReAkcle- 69. 1)avid 'Wilson, The Demand for Energyin nal.Appliances and Space Conditioning theSovietUnion(London: Crown Helm, Eqdipment: Savings Potential and Cost Effec- 1983); Hewett. Energy, Economics, and Foreign tiveness as of 1984," iiiACEEE, Aiing Better, Policy in the Soviet Union; UNECE, An Energy Vol. E. Efficient Future. 62. Anthony Usibelli, "Monitored Energy 70. Schipper, "ResidentiarEnergy-Use in Use of ResidentialWater Ileatelps,"in the OECD." ACEEE, floi;ig Ber,Vol. E; Thrasher. 71. See Dennis C. Anderson, "Ey'aluation and Fuller, "The fluke Ccrustio of Canada's Oil Substitution Program," and Ian Brown, "The Administration of Energy 63. David B. Goldstein. "Efficient Refrig- Conservation Programmes by Western Euro- erators in jopan:\Comparaae Survey of pean Governments.," in ACEEE, Doing Better, American and japanse Trends Towards En- Vol. ergy Conserving Refrigerators,' in ACEEE, 72. Bina Agarwal, "Why Stoves ,are Re- Doing Better. Vol. E. 1 sisted," Unasylva, No. 140, 1983. For a de- .0 64. Geller, "Efficient Resident Appli- scription of recent trends in soil erosion, see ances and Space Conditioning Equipment." Lester R. Brown and Edward C. Wolf, Soil Erosion:QuietCrisisintheWo;ld Economy 65. Howard A. McLain and David Golden- (Vashington, D.C.: Wortdwatch Institute, . berg, "Benefiti of Replacing Residential September 1984). Centr'alAirConditioningSystems,"in ACEF..E, Doing Better. Vol. E. 79. For a severe critique of wood-stove efficiency projects, see Geald-Foley and Pa- 66,, Rudy R. Verderber and Francis M. tricia Moss, Improved Cooking Stoves in Develop- Rubinstein, "New Lighting Technologies," Mgt-Countries, (Washington, D.C. .:Inferno- Their Status. and Inipacts on Poiver Densi-., eional InstituteforEnvironmentand ties," in ACEEE, Doing Better, Vol. E; hydroe- Development; 1983). lectric output Aran ETA, luternational.Eriergy 74. See, for etample, Gyan Sagar, "A Annual 1982; Lihach and Pcrtusiello, "Evolu- Fuel-Efficient, Smokeless. Stove for Rural tion in'tighting." India,"AppropriateTechnology,September 67. Betsy L. Gardiner, Mary Ann Piette, 1980; "Stove Design" and "Stkve Dissemina- and Jeffrey P.. Hari-is, "Measured Results of tion," ,News,January_ ('984;f George Energy Conservation Retrofits in Non-Resi- Mcl3ean,"Sushila Wants a New Stove," UNI- dential Buildings: An Updat%of the BEt.:A- CEF News, Issuel, 1983; John %Torrid, 'Met- CR Data Basil," and Donald R.Schultz, "End ter Stoves Help- Solve -Firewood Ctisls,'' Use Consumption Patterns and Energy Con- Christian Science Monitor, March 14, 1984. servation Savings in Commercial Buildings," 75. David J, Rose et al., Global Energy Fu- in 4CEEE, Doing Better, l'a I) ,{Proceedings tures and Coy-11tduced Climate Change (Cam- from "the 'Panel on Existing Cotnercial bridge, Mass.: Massachusetts Institute, of Buildings). Technology, 1983); the model has also been 68. Schipper, "Energy Efficient Housing used in Seidel and. Keyes, Can We Delay a in Sweden"; ;Lars Entfcbeck,4'Are Building Greenhouse Warming?' Codes Effective Tool; for Reducing Energy 76. All ass imptions and results for DOE Use in New Residential Buildings? Some- Scenario B.e described in detail in Ed- Swedish Experiences," in A.EEE, Donk Bet- monds et al.,tmospheric Retention of CO?. Full ter, Vol. J. detAils of the AvOlable Technology and New . SIc 4 (276) No 1 es

. Technology Ttenariosare available from 79. Yves Albouy, Bank,.' privluc Worldwatch upon reqUest. Thefollving key Communication, November 8, 1084. . pkeSurptions were 0.11e same in all projealobs: 'Poinilati4 grow'a4 about 1 percent per y6r 80. Eric Hirst et al., "Recent Changes in ,U.S. F ergy Consumption: What Happenedo from 1984 to 2025. Cross Worldpoduct 4 grOvs. Fifinually at 3.15 percent until 2000, and Whyin Annual Reviews, Inc.,'Annual IhAn\s/ows tc.c/.6 percent. Price elasticity of Review o/ Energy,Vol. 8(Palo Alto, Calif.! demand for energy services is-0.9 in 'the 1983). , buildings, sector, 0.8 in the industrial se.c.- 81. Jac Edmoiidsk. Institute for Energy !I,or, and 0.7 in the transportation sector in Analyib, private communiiation, Washing- !the OECD cotinfries, and is 0.8 fora 1 sec- ton. D.C., October 24, 198 tors in the ;rest of the world (for all years). Incomelelasticity of demand for energy is 0.8 82. Energy R6searchAdvisoryBoard, for all regions (for all years). Primary energy "Energy Conservation. and the Federal Gov- prices are determined endogenously, and ernment: Research, Development, find Man- thus differ by scenario. Oil prices through - agement." Report to the U.S. Department of 2000 increase annually in DOE's Sicenario Energy, Washington, D.C, January 1983. WorldwatchAvailableTeelinoioiy.and 83.1.:Ihrk W. Bullard, "Energy Conserva- Worldwatch NeW Technology at 1.7, 1.2, and tion in Buildings: Opportunities, Experience, 0.9 p ercent, and from 2000 to 2025 at 14.7, and Options." in Annual Reviews, InaptAn- and 1.6, respectively. Coal and biomass nual Review of Energy, Vol.6 (Palo Alto, Calif.: prices never increase 'above 0.8 potent an-) 1981). 'wally in DOE's Scenario B or above 0.6 per-. cent in either Worlds projection. The !: cost of nuclear-electri ydroelectric, and Chapter 8. Harnessing Renewab solar-electric power changes at 1.6, 0, and- ergy 5.2 percent annually in all cases. I.World Bank. Energy Department, ASur- 77. Estivirated by Worldwatch from Her- vey- of the Future Role of hydroelectric werin bert Block, The Planetary Product in (980: A 100 DevelopingCountries (Wiishingtol, D.C.: Creative Pause? (Washington, D.C.:: U.S! De- 1984);11... Gordqn, "Recent Developments partment' of'State, 1941); E1A,Intetationd in Hydropower,"Water PowerEe DarnConstruc- Energy Annual 1982;World Bank, Ifor dDevel- tion, September 1983. -; opulent Report 198. 2, PhilipB.Williams, "Damming the 78.-The incorporation of *iciency im-. World,"NotAfati Amid, October1983, pkvementswas accomplished in the model bY adjusting the wate of non-price-induced 3, World Bank,Energy inhe Develppii* conservatio as well as energy prices. The Cettmries (Washington, D.C.: 1980): latter required an artificial shift supply 4. yinistry of Mines and Efiergy, "Energy curve, or the equivalent .0f7tn energy tax. For k Self Sufficiency: A Scenario Develciped as an comparison, the energy demand projection Extension of the Brazilian Energy Model,'1/- for the United States' grew from' about 75 Bras,ilia, July 1984; "Hydropower Bases Keys ' exajoules in the. year 1983 (note that in the to China's Power Potential,"Chin'a Daily, model all values are based on 1975) to 105, Mal-ch 29, 1984; "The U.S. Demands a Fair .85, mid 83 exajoctICs in the DOE, Available Technology, and New Technology ,Sce- Shot at Building a Huge Dam,"Business Week, May21, 1984. narios, respectively. This' compares with a range of 81 to 92 exajmiles in TheAudubon 5, Peter T, Kilborn, "Brazil's Hydroelec- Energy Plan 1984(New York: National Audu- tric Project,"New York 'flints,November. 14, bop Society, July 1984). 1983; Juliyal Morales and VictorF, 1. Notes (277) . 11. Salatko, "Coming:12,600. Megawatts .0 United, Nations Inchastrial Develop- Itaipu Island," IEEE Spectrum, August '1983, ment OrganizatiOn;."Small Hydro Power De-. 0 6. Federal Ministry of Commerce, Trade velopmentinthePeople'sRepublic of and industry, Energy Supply in Amara (Vienna:. China," presented to the Third Workshop on '1984); T.W. "Major Dams of ale Small HydroPower, Kiial1 Lumpur, I. W orl d 1988," Water Power & Dam Construc- Malaysia, March 7-15, 1983; Wang Shoudao, "Small Hydro-Power Speeds Development tion, August 1984; U.S. Department ofFn- ergy, Electric Pawn- Annual, 1982 and 1983 , in Hilly Regions," Chino Daily March 27, 1984; data on 60 factories from Larry N. ashington, D.C.: 1983 and 1984); U.S. De- r pa !.anent orEnergy, Inventry of Power Plants Stotaken, -"The Chinese Hydro Imports: Testing The North American Marketplace," airl the United Stales, 1982 Annual (Washington, D.C.: 1983). Alternative Sources of- Energy, July /August 1983; Hangzhou manufacturer quoted in "Chin6t 7. Pumped storage ligure from Rita Bar- Manufacture Small hydro Units,"Water nett, U.S. Department of Energy, Washing- Power &. Dam Construction, May OM; "Guang- ton, D.C., private ,tiommunication, OcAer dong Leads in Hydropower." China Daily, I I, 1984. September 13,984. tit Peter Hadekcl, "Ilydro-Quebm. Looks 12. 'Maria Ele a Hutado" and Essam to Epergy Market f9r Surplus Power Ex, linnawi, "Hyldro Power; China's Marriage of ports," foto-n(11.4 Commerce, September 24, Convenience,'' South; January '1983; "West- 1984; ."Boom Ahead for 'Canadian inghouse Signs Agreement With China," Al- watts," energy Nth: September 7. 1984; Wal- ternatipe Sources of Energy, March /April 1984; a ter D. Harris, "Canadian Power Surges "Chinallarters Mac,hines for Raw Materials," South," Pubb7 Power, November/December 1Voter Power & Dam Construction, November 1982; Kevin Quinn, "Manitoba/ Agrees to- 1983. piupply Western U.S: With Power for 35 13. Allen R. Inversin, "Pakistan: Villager- Years, Beginning 1993," Wall'Street Journal, Implemented Micro-ilydrbpower Schemes," June 4,' National Rural Electric Cooperative Associa- ' 9. "Inga-Sh)ba Li4k Inaugurated,"- Water tion, Washington, D.C., 1983; National Rural Power & Darn Construction, January1984; Electric Cooperative Association, "Status, World Bank, Etiergy,Department, "1981"Po- Recommendations., and 'Future Directions wer/Energy Data Sheets' (Or 100' Develop- for the Small Decentralized Hydropower ing Countries," Washington, D.C., -Mar.ch Program,'.' Washington, D.C., 1983. 1984. 14. William A. Loeb, "How Small Hydro 10. Nrorttieni QuCher frorn'Warren Per- Is Growing Big," Technology Review, August/ ky, "Alurnininn Industry Important to Econ- Septembei 1983.. ti omy," fourruileof tommerce, September 15. "Stitteineof Keith L. Colbo," in U.S. 1984; Brazil from "Aluminum Port News Coigress, Subcommittc on Energy Consei.- Completion ,",jourrial of Commerce, June., 25,'/ and Pciwer, Northwest Power Planning 1984; Siberia frerk Daniel 'Deudney and Council & FE RC, Hearings, September 11, Christopher ,Flavin;Venewable Energy:Thr 1984; Response of Raymond J. O'Connor, Power .to Choose (Now York: W.W. NortOn & Chairman of the Fedrral Energy Regulatory Co., 1983); Vhicent W. Stove, "Aluminum Commission, to an inquiry by the Subcom- Smelter Nears Full Capacity' in Australia," mittee on Energy ConserVation and Power, Journal of Commerce, March 15, 14114; typicil Coimmittee on Energy and Commerce, U.S. s,onstrue.tioiicosts from World Bank, Survey House of Representatives, February17, (of tlydroelectric Power. 1984. (178) - Notes 16. "Var Developers OrdCr 27 Standard 26. "WOrld Economics Curb 1SS EuPho- Turbines,"Water iver&Dark Construction,'ria."World Solar Markets,September 1983. ianuary 1984,41:. zottL "Developing Small- 27. 'Vit. -Ng and Lcung; "Solar Tech .:\ Scale Hydro in Czechoslovakia,"Water Power nology .in China,"Sunitiorld,'Vol. 6, No.,4, & Dan, Construction,March 1984, 1982; "India,"World. Environment Report,kill 17. Edward Goldsmith end Nicholas Hild- 25, 1,984. yard,The SOcial and Environmental Effects of. a. 28. Peter Nares"Solar Energy Seen Ca-' Large Dams, Volume I(Cornwall,U.K.: Wade- obit. of Cutting. Oolombian Elearicity Aise .,bridge Ecological (3entre,64984). 1070,"SOlar Etieigy'Intelligence Report,October 18. Elizabeth Kemf, "Rainforest Sacrificed 24, '1983; "U.S. &Aar Finds Lucrative Mar- To Build Amazon Darn," ;WadWildlife Fund kets Outside the I.1,S..,"SolarEngineering & News,July/August 1984. Contracting,Match/April 1984. 4 - 19. World Energy Cimference prediction. 29. U.S. Energy Information Achriiin ora- from Asit K. Biswas, "World Status Report tion,Solar Camel' Manufacturing Activity 1983 on Hydroelectric Energy," Nfatingira, V91.'74 (Washington, D.G.: 1984). No. 3, 1983; World Bank,Survey of Ilyth(oelec- .. 30. "Industry Analysts Surprised by EIA's try Power. Bearish Report,"Solar Age,July 1984. 20. Ken Witte and John Perlt4 .older) 31: r....6-gy investment Research Inc.,The Thread: 2500liarsof Solar. Architecture qnd k1984 Solar ProfitabilitySurvey(Greenwich, Technology(Palo Alto, Calif.:Cheshire Books, Conn.: 1984). 1980). 32.. Molly Malloy, "The Solar Age 1984 21. D. Grouts and I. SegaA,Solar Energy in State Tax Survey,"Solar Age,June 1984; TVA Israel(Jerusalem; Ministry if Energy&Infra- information from TVA49fficial, prigate com- struature, 1984)1 munication, September 6,1984; San I4iis 22.DeWayne Coxon, onriestic Water ,.data &tin. Amory Loviris, private commutti- Heating in Israel,"Sunworlyol.6, No. 4, cation, November 9, 1984. 1982; ChristopherG4imski,"Amcor 33. "Selling Solar Like EncycloPedias,"--// Profits from Close Dea Ties,"SolarAge, ti Energy Daily, July .1984. October 20,1983; Rebecca Voires,"DevelopingProfiftblethstribu- 23. Costis Stambolis, "How -Greece tiOn,"Solar Enginrering & Contracting,May/ Catching the Sun.,"financial T-i>es,Novem- June 1984. ber 23,1983; "AFME Announces 1983 34. "Meatpacker Boasts Programme,"Tliorld., Solo; Markets,March Largest Solar 1983. Unit,"foit'rnal of Comm'''e4t, 'July 12; 1984. 4 24."Italy Slow to Use Solar Funds:" Et41)9- 35. "A Solar Success,Story,"Solar,May/ June 1984; WaynejOhnson, "Third Party Fi- pea n Energy Reports(London), March 9, 1984; British information from Michael Flood, nancing Helps End -Users Save Without Fears About Perfconance,"Solar Engineering/ Solar Prospects..(London; Wildwood /louse, in association with Friends of the Eartb, 1983); & Contracting,May/June 1983. East European projections :from "Elsewhere 36. aiassiveWaterHeatersGainin in the News,"Solar Energy Ititelligett'ce Report, Ground,"SoarAge, AUgust 1988. February 27, 1984. "William J. Rutnatn, "An Overview of

. 25. Dick Munson, "Solar Energy in the Solar Therinal Domestic Hot Water Tech. Land of the Rising Sun,"Solar Engineering ands nology,." in Coiningof Age,Proceedings of the Contracting, May/ June.1983. Renewable Energy Technologies Sytnpo- 293

1 4, ?1. Notes . (379) )tium, AnaheiM, Calif., August 29-September enlist,November/December 1983; "USSR 1, 1983. Details Gas/Solar Station Plans," World Solar , 38. David Godolphin, "Rising Hopes for - Markets, August 1983. ., Vacuum Tube Collectors,; Solar Age, June 49. J.J. Bartel, "Solar 10 MWe Pilot Plant 1982: 4: . v.. . Fact Sheet," Sandia National Laboratory, . 39. John W. Andrews and William G. Wil.,, New Mexico, 1983, helm, "Thin-Film Flat-Plate Solar Collectors 50. Norman Dbwri, "Solar One," Solar, for Low-Colt Manufacture and InstAation," January/February 1983. Brodkhaven Nati Onal Laboratory, Upton, N.Y., 1980; "Burton's Sundulator Collectors: 51. Ibid.; Kreith and Meyer. -I..arge-Scale $4.50/Square Ft.," Solar Engineering & Con- Use of Central Receivers.:' tracting, May/June 1983. 52.' Solar 100 description from Markov, . 40. Carlo La Porta; Solar Energy Indus-Indus- "Solar Thermal: Exciting Developments"; ARCO. Solar Industries, PG&E, and Rockwell tries Association, Waington,iliington, D..,C.: private communication; July"l 1984. International, "The Carrizo Plains Solar Central Receiver Plant," presented to the 41. Stephen W. flinch, "Solar Power Gocs Solar Energy Industries Association Annual on Line," 1110Technology,August 1984; Meeting, November 1.0, 1982. "Roan. Signs with PG&E to Sell Power from 15-MWE Parabotic Trough System," Solar 53. Down, "Solar One,cost estimates Energy Intelligence Report, June 6, 1983. from L.K. Ives'and W.W. Wilcox, "Economic Requirements for Central Receiver e;ommer- 42. "Israel, Japan Help to Finance Big cialization," in Proceedings of STTF (Solar Ther- Solar 'Project in California," Energy Daily, mal Test Facility) _Testing for Long Term Systems- September 6, 1983. PerformanceWorkshop,Albuquerque, .M., 43. Ira P. Krepchin, "Feast or Fine for January 7-9, 1984, and from California En- Solar Dishes," Solar Age, September 1983. ergy Commission, Technical Assessments Man- ual("Sacramento, 19F34.1). 44. Groues and Segal -Solar Energy in Israel; .) Jim Norris, McDonnell Douglas Corpqration, .54. Gl'oues and 'Segal, Solar Energy in Is- private communication, November 12, 1984. rael. ,7) 415 Timothy A. Fausch, "Solar Electric 55. Michael Edesess, "On Solar Ponds: .Plants: New Prosperity or Large -Scale Los- Salty Fare for the World's Energy Appetite," ers?," Solar Engineering & Contracting, May/ Technology Review, Deceinber 19132. June 1984; LaPorta, private communication. 56. Groues and Segal, Solar Energy in Israel; 46. David Halbeii quoted in Nina Mailo.7, Richard Munson, "Israel's Shining. E"xam- "Solar Thermal:. Exciting DeVelopmments ple," Environmental Acton, June 1984. Refititt Promising. Future," Renewable Energy News, May 1084. 57. "S. Calif. Edison AgreeS to Build lar Complex;" Parma/ of Commerce, Decemb.e 21, 4 47. John 1. Woodard, "Solar Thermal Technology-Research and Development," in Coming of Age. 58. W:W.S. Charters, "Solar Ponds in N Australia," Sur:world, Vol. 7, No, 1, 1983. 48. Alan Skinwood,"Recent Develop- ments in Central Receiver Systems," Sun- 59. ""Sol# Electric Market Put at 130 GWw world, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1982; Frank Kreith and in 2010," Solar Energy Intelligenie.Report, Octo- ber 10, 1983, Richard T. Meyer, "Largo-Scale Use cSolar Energy with Central Receivers," American Sri- 60. Ibid,

294 , Notes 1. _01. For a good discussion ofThe history of Alcohol Push Shows Mixed Results, "' Renew- alcoholfuels, see Hal Bernton, William .able Energy. News, iepteiviber 1982.1 . t k Kovasik, and Scott Sklar, The Forbidden Fuel: 69. Calestous Juma, "The Use of Power * Power Alcohol in tIr Tioentieth Cetfiny (New Alcohol in-lenya and Zimbabwe: An Over- York: Boyd Griffin Inc., 1982). iew," Science Policy Research Unit, Univer- 621 Horarcl S.Geller, "Ethanol From ity of Sussex, Brighton, England, February+ Sugarcane in Brazil," in Annual ReViews Inc., .1,984; N.C. Krishna4urthy,. World Bank,'` Annual Review of Enegy Vol. '10 (eilo Alto, - Washington-, D.C.,- private communication, Calif.: forthcoming). September 7, 1984. - 4. IC 63. James Bruce, "Brazil's Alcohol Project 70. Arm andPereira. Im- Flourishing," Journal cpf (Amerce, June1, Iplications of Ethanol Production inBrazil;" 1988; Jose Goldemberg et al.,"Brazil: 4 nternational Labour-Review, January/February Study on End-Use Energy strategy," pre- 1983; ,Yacl-av Smil, "Can ThePoOr Countries sented to the Global Workshop on End-Use Afford Biomass EnerOes?," pre tinted to the Energy Strat4ies, Sao Paulo, Brazil, une 4- Third International Con fence on Energy} Use Managelnent, West` Berlin, West Ger- 15,1984; "The Sweet Smell of Brazil's many, October 2610, 1981. Traffic," World Ban News, May 10, 1984. 6 71. David Hallberg, President, Rtncwable 64. Ministry-of dustryand Commerce, Fuels Association, Washington, D.C., private "Assessment of Brazil's Nyitional Alcohol communication, November l?, 1984. a Program," Brasilia,1981; fOrian Murphy, "Brazil Ethanol Program Had Turbulent .72.. Daniel C. Greer and Walter J. Kula- History," leeneioable Energy Xrews, September kowski, "Curfeht and Future Markets. For 1943; Genilson Cezar, "Brazil'4 Gasohol Suc- Fuel Ethanol," pre'sented to the Tenth,En-- cess,"World Press Review, June 1984; Geller, ergy Technology Conference and Exposi- "Ethanol in- Brazil." tion, Washington, D.C., February 29-Mirch 2, 1982i Solar Energy Research Institute, Goldemberg et al, "Brazil: End-Use "Alcohol Fuels Program Technical Review," Strategy"; Ministry of .Mines and Energy, prepareckfor' U.S. Department of Energy, "Energy Self-Sufficiency." --- ./ k . , GoWlen, Colo Summer 1982; USDA, A Bi- 66. U.S,DepartmentofAgriculture omass Energy Production and Use Plant for the tinitea States, (USDA), Economic Research Service, World 1983-90 (Washington, D.C.: Indices of Agricultural and Food Production, 1983); Tina Hobson, "Environme ?tal Be- nefits Make Ethanol A 'Natural'," presented 19,50-83 ?unpublished %printout) (Washing- tothe 1984 Washington Conference on Fuel ton, MC.: 1984); shifts in agricultural trends Ethanol, Washington, !IQ, September 12- from Jose LutzOnberger;Union for the Con- 13, 1984, servatiOf of Nature, Ai° Grande do Sul, Bra- zil, private communication, September 20, 78. "Carter Lays Out Multi-Billion Dolla 1984. For a further discussion of this issue, 'Plan for Gasohol,'; Solar Energy 'Intelligence Re see Ihster R. IIrown, Food or Fuel: New Compe- ``port,January 14, 1980; Andrew. H. Malcolm, tition for the World's Cropland (Washington; 1,1* ndiana Guzzles Cralobol, Unknowingly," D.C.: WorldwatCh Institute, March 1980). New York Times, July 9,1'983; Richard House, "Brazil Turning Its Excess Cane info M'Otor 67: Geller, "Ethanol in Brazil." Fuel," Washington Post, February 19, 1984. 68. World Bank, stthe Energy transition 74. Phil Stevens, President, Ultrasystems, inDevelopingCountries,"Wasifington, Inc.; statement at the 1984 Washington Con- D,C.,1883; Bill Kovarik, "Third World Fuel ference. on Fuel EthAtiol, Washington, D.C., r. 4 eS (081) September 12-13, 684; Rogev P011ak, "Al 82. Joseph G. Finegold e cehol Turhs CheeSe Wastes 1106 Profits:' Re- stration of Dissiiatea Met Auto- newable Energy News, April 1983; Michael E. C. motive Fuel: System Performat Solar Cery, "Alcohol Fuel Plant Runson Wood Energy Research Institute, (olden, Colo., Chips," Reriewable Energy Nem, September. April 1981; Roger Staiger, statementat the Symposium on the Usc of Methanolas a Fuel 75. David E. Hallberg, Opening Remarks, tci Impeove Air Quality ,in the South Coast Air 1984Washington Conference on 'Etn:). Basin, El Monte, CaliL, June 29, 19841110e, Ethanol, Washington, D.C., September 12- 83. U.S. Office *Technology Assess- 13, 1984; annual ethanol:use projection from ment, il'wergy From cal Processes,},l'ot Marilyn J. Herma4 President, 1lernsan & As- (Washington, 1).C.: U.S. Government Prin- A sociates, statement at the 1984 Washington ting Office,1980); "France Markets Fuel Conferencum Fuel Ethanol, Washingtok Substitutes,"World Solar Markets, January D.C., September 12:13, 1984. 1983; "B4omasS Gasifier Developedat SERI 76. USDA study lined by 1?vidrE. Hall- Converts 60% Woo() Feed to Methanol," , berg, "Commercializat ionofthe So/ox Times, ,,t)ctober 1981; "Direct Wood Ethanol Industry: A Catalytt for Increased Gasification 9tthod St(en Lending to Me-, R&D Spending by the Private Sector,". in thanol Production in Brazil," Solar Energy In- Corning of Age. te'lligence .11erort, October 13, 1980. 77. Charles K. Ebinget al., -!'Ethanol: 84. Niethanol use inU.S. automobjles National Securit rplications," Center for from Pamela C. Hollie, "Du Pont, Citing Strategic and Ir ernational Studies, George- Prices, To Halt Mspanol Sales," New York townyniversiri Pashington, D.C.. 1984. Times, September 7,1984; HsuSolomon, "Much to Arco's Delight, GM Aanges Its 78. Barry Commoner, "A Reporterat View of Methanol," .Energy Daily, August 6, Large: Ethanol," New Yorker.Qctober 10, 1984. 1983,, 85. "Methanol Catches On In 79. Berms n, Kovarik, and Sklar, The For- Energy Daily, September 6, 1983; Charles L. bidden Fuel. Gray, Jr., "Future Emission Control Tech- 80. Paul F. Bence, r., "Fleeted Examples pgy for Methanol Vehicles," presented to of Emerging Bio-Energy Developments That the Symposium on-the Use of Methanolas a May Lead to Substitutes for Conventional Fuel to. Improve 'Air Quality in the South Liquid Fuels," presented to the Symposium Coast Air Basin, E1,Mo if., June 29, on Biomass Substitutes for LiquidFuels, Sao 1984; Brazil and Norwa ing, and. Solar Paulo, Brazil, February 9-12,1982;loseph C. EneiNgYKesearchA . Institute information, (-rpm Roetheli, TVA Biomass Fuels Progw, "Fu- Joseph GVinegold, J. Thomas McKinnon, ture of Alcohol Fuels," in Coming of Age; "Me- and Michaq E. Karpuk, "lac-composing thanol Plant Opens Up New Prospects," tbanol As C34.risuntable Hydride for Automo- Latin American Mdrkets, kily 30, 1984. biles and Gas Turbines," Solar Energy Re- #scarch Institute, Golden, Colo., March 19'82. 81."Hallberg, "Commercialization of the Fuel -Ethanol Industry"; "Researchers De- 86. "Big Ok lel Use Rise Eyed For Mc- velop Formula To Make Ethanol From thanpl, Ethanol," Journal of Cominerce, lavatory Algae," Journal of Commerce, January 5, 1982; .17, 1984. Kriati Manch, United Energy Corpot(ation, 87. Ronald DiPippo, "Development of Foster City, Calif private communication, Geothermal Electric Power Production Over- May 29, 1984. seas," presented to the Eleventh Energy

296 1' I. I

(28;) :Notes I S Technology Conference, Washington, D.C., 71 quadriNion BTUs of which hydropower March 1984. was 3.9 (nadrilfron BTUs, from V.S. Dqipart- 88. James 1: Easterly and Elizabeth C: Energy, Monthly Energy Review, Au- Saris, "A Survey of the Use of Biomass as a gust 1984; wsoqd ettiergy use estimated at 3.2 Fut! to Produce Electric Energy in the trnitVd quadrillion BTUs by have Keenan, National States,/"..i/resented to the Eleventh Energy Wood Energy'Institute; Portsmouth, N.1.1. Technolonference, Washingion, D.C., prig ate comNinication, December 3, 1984. March19R. GovernmentofSweden, 96.Cogeneration and- Small PowerMonthly ;'Green Power: Biofuels Are a Growing Con- 2 (Washington,1).C.), various issues. cern" (advertisement),Scientific American,Au-. gust, -1984;"Philippines Produces Wood Power,"World SolrAlarkets,Augirt, 19A3. Chapter 9. Stopping Population Growth A 89. Project de :riptions based on private 1. National population data thoughout communicationsit h various (Vi?velopers apd this chapter, unless otherwise specified, from trade press reports. Population Referenat liureairti1984 World t 90. Paul D. Maycock, "Current Itatus and PopulationDataSheet(Washington,D.C.: Future Prospects of the U.S. PV -industrv," 198-U, an0 United NationsMonth!): Bulletin-of Telstiniony presented to the Science Tech- Statistics,New York, various issues. nology Committee, U.S., House of Repre- 2. WOrlde Bank,World Development Report sentatives, Septembe11, 1984; "Kyocera 1981 (NewYork: Oxford University 'Press, Becomes First Foreign PV. Manufacturer to 1984). Launch Full-Scale Marketing Effort in U.S.," Photovoltaicinsider'sReport(Dallas, Tex.), 3. The evoption of China's family plan- June 1984; "Potential Impact of I loxan Auto- ning prograni is discussed in H. Yuan Tien, mated Plant on Thick Crystal Module Cost," "China:. Demographic Billionaire,"Popula- Nelas(Alexandria, Va.), September 1984. Jinn Bullin (Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau, April 1983), and in Pi- 91. Mike Batham, California Eqergy Chao Chen, "11 M Chinese Opt for Only mission, Sacramento, Calif.,' private coirmni- One Child Glory Certificate,"People(Lon- nication, September 27, i1984. don), Vol. 9, No. 4, 1982. 92. Donald Marie1, Update: A 4. Fora profile of the World_ Fertility Su Banner Year Ends With a Flurry,"Alternative \ vey; see Robert Lightbpurne Jr.,Suslie:ela Sources of Energy,March/April 1984; "Wind Power: A Question of Scale,"EPR1 journal, /Singh, and Cynthia Ps, Green, "'The World FertilitySurvey: Charting Global Child- May 1984. e bearing,"PopulationBulletin1Washit'igton, 93. California resources, figure from D.C.: Population- Reference Bueeau, Match Batham, private communication; San Gor- 1982). gonio figures from Maurice Nan Nostrand, "Unusual Farming for New Energy Source: 5. For a. discussion'tf the backgroinkd of The Wind," DesMoines Register,August 25, the U$. policy position at the Meitico City 1984. it 'Meeting,see 'Erik E k holrn,"Population GrOwth: How U.S. PoliEvoked,"NewYork 94. Wind farm developments in various Times, .tigustil, 1984; for an analytical re- regions based on private communication. view of the conference, sec Dierdre Wulf and and fade press repotts. Peters D. Willson, "Mexico City: Consensus 95. Ten percent of U.S. energy t?se figure Amid Controversies,"InternationalFamily

is derived fi-om 1983 national energy use of . Planning Perspectives,SepteAber 1984.

I If 29 7 4.3

4 Notes (283) 6. Rafael M. Salas, "Population: The Mex- 16. Ann I..ars9n, "Patterns of Contracep- ico Conkrence 4nd' the Future," statement,live Use Around the World," Population Ref- to the International Conference on PoptiVi- erence Bureau. Washington, D.C., July 1981; tion Mexico City, August 6, 1984.'t Jeanette H. Johnson, "Vasectomy-An Inter- 7. Population Reference Bureau,1984 national Appraisal," Ffimily 'harming Perspec- World Population Data Sheet. tives, 'January/February 1983; "India Pro- motes the Pill," People (Lorgion),Vol. 10, No. . 8. Stepheii.Rapawy and Godfrey Baldwin, 2,1983; Tien, "China: Demographic Bil- "PerrrOgraphic Trends in the Soviet Union: Nonaire." 1950-2000," and Murray Feshbach, "Trends inthe Soviet Muslim "Population-Demo- 17. Larson,"Patterns of Contraceptive! graphic Aspects," in Joint Economic Com- Use." mittee, U.S. Congress, Soviet Economy in the 18. Contraceptiv'e prevalence and cultural 1980's: Problems and Prospects (Washingtqn, factors in Indonesia are discussed in Terence D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice. IT Hull, Valerie J. Hull, and Hawn Singarim- 1983). bunA;'Indonesia's Family Planning Story: 9. }homas W. Merrick, "Recent Fertility Success and Challenge," Population Bulletin DeclCS in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico" (Washington, D.C.: Population Rrference bac paper prepared for World Bank, Bureaii, November 1977). , lopmeni Report 1984: population 19. Laude Liskin et al., "Vasectomy-Safe projection from World Bank, It old Develop- and Simple,"'Populatioin Reports (Population ment Report 1984. Infor4 Mation Program, The Johns Hopkins 10. World Bank, World Develdpment Report *tinivepity.Baltimore,Md.),November/ 1984. December 1983. I J. "Age at Marriage and Fertility," Popu- 20. Johnson, "Vasectomy-An Interna- lation Reports (Population Information Pro- tional Appraisal." gram, The Jolins Hopkins University, Balti- 21. Ibid. more, Md.), vember 1979; World 'Bank, World Development Report 1.984. 22. Ibid. 12. World Bank, World.Development Report 23. Laparoscopy and Minilaparotomy are 1984;; see also, Kathleen Newland, Infant discussed in Cynthia P. Green, "Voluntary morta ty and the Health of Societies (Washing- Sterilization: World's Leading Contraceptive ton, D.C.: Worldwatch, Institute, December Method," Population Reports .(Population In- 1981). formation Program, The Johns Hopkins Uni- 13. The suppression of fertility during ;,Persity, BpItimore, Md.), March 1078. breastfeeding is discussed in John .Knodel, 24. Speidel, private n anion. "Breist-Feeding and Population Growth," 2.5. George Zeideristein, "Contraception Science,December. 16,1977, and in R.V. in the Population/Development Equation" Short, "Breast Feeding," Scientific American, (background paper prepared by Forrest C. April 1984. Greenslade and George F. Brown, The Popu- 14. International Labour Office,World lation Council, New York), presented at the Labor Report (Geneva: 1984). First ConfereAce of the,,Asian Forum of 15. Prevalence of Depo Proven from Jo- Parliamentarians on Population 'and De- seph -Speidel, Population Crisis Committee, velopment, New Delhi,February 17-20, Washington, D.C., private communication, 1984. November 7, 1984. 26. Speidel, private communication. 298 1 (284) Notes 27., Liskin et al., "Vasectomy-Safe .and Second Biennial Conference on the Fate of Simple"; U.S. Office of Technology Assess-. the Earth, Washington, D.C., September 20, ment, World Population and Fertility planning 1984. Technologies: The Next 20 Years (Washington, I D.C.:U.S. Government PrintingOffice, 1982). Chapter 10. Getting Back-on Track 28: Zeidenstein, "Contraception inthe 1. Latin American \income figures from In-. Population/Development Equation." tOr-American Development Bank, Economic 29. Bruce Stokes, Filling the Family Planning Bind Social Progress in Latin America(Washing- Gap (Washington, D.C.: Worldwatch Insti- D:C.: 1983). et tute, May 1977). 2. K. ITharmarajan, "India-Energy Sup- 30. World Bank, World Development Report ply Policy Management," NaturalResources. 1984. Forum, July'19; U.S. pabment of Energy (IXI.). Estimate of LI Wood Energy Consump- 31. Geoff Tansey, ''Turkey Loots Forward nog- frorn 1949 1 (Washington, D.C.: to Libeyal Law," People (Loix166), Vol. 10, U.S. Government Pting Office, 1982).. No. I, 1983; Nuray Fincancioglu, "Turkey's Liberal Law," People (London), Vol. 10, No. 3. Indian soil loss estimates from K. G. 3, 1983; Rami Chhabra, "India Promotes the Tejwarti, Land Use Consultants Interna- Pill," People (London), Vol. 10, No. 2, 1983. tional, New Delhi, priirate communication, July 3, 1983, and from Centre for Science 32. Quoted in Johnson:- "Vasectomy-An atid Environment, The State of India's Environ- International Appraisal." ment 1982 (New Delhi; 1982).

F , *3. Christopher Tietze, Induced Abortion: A 4. Nigeria's oil output decline described in Wald Review, 1983 (New York: The Popula- International Energy Agency, World Energy tion Council, 1983). Outlook (Paris: Organisation for Ectihotrtic 34. PhilipJ,Hilts,"LegalAbortions Co-okration and Development, 1982). Found Declining For First Time," Washington 5. World Bank. World Develophient Report Post, July '7, 1984.'` it 1984 (New York: Oxford University Press, !A. 35. IPPF estimate cited in Tietze, Induced 1984). Abortion. 6. David J. Walker and Douglas L. Young,' 36. Barbara K. Herz, "Official Develop- "Technical Progress in Yields-No Substi-, ment Assistance for Population," World tute for Soil Conservation," Current Infor- Bank, Washington, D.C., unpublished, Sep- mation Series No. 671, University of Idaho tember 1983, College of Agriculture, Moscow, Id., Decem- ber 1982. 37. Ibid. 7. U.S. Department'ofAgriculture 38. World Bank, World Development R (USDA), Soil Conservation Service, "Prelim- 1984: inary 1982 National Resources Inventory" 39.. Ibid. .(unpublished printout), Washington, D.C., 'April 1984; calculation of distribution ofex- 40. Gerald'O. Barney, G, 0. Barney & As- cessiveerosion by Worldwatch Institute sociates, Inc., Arlington; Va., privatecommu- using a maximum soil-loss tolerance level of nication, November 5, 1984. . 5 tons per ocre. 41. Marshall Green, former U.S, Ambassa- 8. Chinese data from Zheng Guanglin, dor to Indonesia, speech presented at the. .relitninarj Results trom the China 2000 0 I

Notes (385 ) Study: A Personal View." C.O. Barney & As- (OTA), Technologies to Sustain Tropical Forest .sociates, Inc,. Arlington, Va unpublished, Resources (Washington, D.C.: 1984). July 1984; Indian data from Tejwani, private 18. OTA, Technologies.;,FAO,11-opical Forest communication, and frogkCentre for Science Resources. and Environment, State of ldia's Environment; India's national survey was recorded in Na- l9. Industrial plantations in Brazil and tional Commission on Agriculture, Report Jf tropics as a whole from OTA, Technologies; the National Commission on Agriculture, Part 5: industrial plantations in India from Centre Resource Developme.nt (New Delhi: Government fo Sciew e and Environment, The State of of India, 1976).. Ina's Environment. 9. UNSISA, Foreign Agricultural Service, 20. OTA, Technologies; FAO, n-opical Forest Foreign Agriculture Cil'culars SC- I 1-.84 and SC- .Resources. 12-84, Washington. D.C., September 1Si164 21. Tree farming in Gujarat from OTA, and October 1984. lichnologies, and from. William Claiborne, "Indian Peasants .Hope Tree 'arming Will .Frank. R. Rijsberman and M. Cordon -Make Them Rich," Washington frost, April 22, Quantification of the Effect of Ero- Wolman,eds., 1984. For a more thorough analysis of the sion on Soil Productivity in an International Con- Gujarat prograin, see Madhav Cadgil, S. text (Delft, The Nethelands: Delft Hydraulics Narenda Prasad, and Raid Ali, forest Manage- Laboratory, 1984). ment in India: A Critical Review (Bombay: Cen- 11. American Farmland Trust, Soil Conser- tre'for Monitpying Indian Economy, 1982). vation in America: What Do We Have to Lose? 22. Erik E holm, "Seedlings Dot Nepal's (Waspington, 1984 Once-BarrSlopes as Country Battles For- February 21, 12. Estimate for conservation tillage in est Crisis New York Times.N. 1984 from Frank Lessiter, "Despite PIK, No- 1984. i t Till Turns hi An Increase," Farmer 23. 9- VA , Technologies. (Brookfield, Wisc.), March 1984. or 24./Lheng,I "PreliminaryResultsfrom Research in Nigeria discussed in Inter- Ching 2000"; Vaclav Smil, The Bad Earth: En- national Institute of Tropical Agriculture viroitmentfil,DegradationinChina (Armonk, , r(IITA), Tasks for the Eities: A LoCig-Range Plan N.Y.: Mi. E. Sharpe. Inc., 1984). (Ibadan, Nigeria: J 1981), and in IITA,. 3 / Tasks for the 'Eighties: An Ippraisal of Progress i'.5. Erik Eckholirt, Planting for the Future: Ibadan, Nigeria: April 183). Fcirestry for Human Needs (Washington, D.C.: Viorldwatch Institute, February '1979). :14. "Soil Conservation in Kenya: An In- It' terview withCarl-Costa Wenner," Ambit), I 26i Francis UrbanandThomas Vollrath, 41 atterns and mends in World Agricultural Land Vol. 12, No. 6, 1983. ot ' lIse(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government 15. Swedish International Development Printing Office, 1984). "---- - Authority, Soil Conservation in Kenya 1980 Re- .f 27. GA. WoOdwell et al:, "Global Before- i. view (Stdckholm: December 1980). ;station: Contribution to Atmospheric Car- 16. UnitedNationsFood and Agriculture bon Dioxide," Seim!, December 9, 1983. Organization (FAO), Forest Resources . 28. Projection of tree plantinkin thetrap-. moical Forest Resources, FAO Forestry ics isauthors' estimate based on an annual Paper 30 (Rome; 1982). zI: increase in the planting rate consistent with '17. Analysis of FAO data for Asia is from the..increase of plantingin1980-85 over Office of TechnologyAssessment. 1975-80...asreported in FAO, Ropical. Forest tl\S. 4 (286) '/-414111,11P-.. Nota

Removes. The annual share of carbon ab-f in Brown et al.,Stale of the World-.984; ,Envi- sorbed assumes that a total of six million bee- .ronmental Protection Agency (E )estimate 'tares of new phOatiops are planted to leuca- of energy savings from national .containerde- ena, which cans fix a vnIximmin bf 28tons of posit legislation from EPA;Fourth. Resaurtfe carbon per hectare, anct'that the measured Recovery and Waste Reduction Report to Congress annual, increase in annospheric carbon (ap- (Washington, D.C.: -4977); states with-con- proximately 2.8 billion tons) doespot in- tainer deposit laws in effect from Chandler, crease Or decrease before the turn, of the cen- , "Recycling 'Materials." tury. tre Andrew.H. Malcolm, "For Minneapo-; 29: OTA,Technologies;.Nicholas Guppy, lis, Trash Means-Cash," New York Ines, "tropical Deforestation:A Global View," ,March 7, 1Q84; (or one. community's effort's, Foreign Affairs, Spring' 1984. see Craig W. Dawson and Clint Pires, "Riekz *odd Bank, IVorldDevelopment Report ",success: Recycling in.St. Louis Park, Min- 1984. it Resoura! Recovery, March /April 1984. Al. Bar ara Miller, ','Super-Insulated Houses ash Energy Use,".Appropriate Tech-% 119. Geoffrey _Murray "Puttine20Tons nology Times,Skring 1980. of 'Garbage; A !fay e It Bel rigs,"Chris- lion ScienceMonitoir; March- 10, .1983. 32. Growth in residential andindustrial ftielwood use in the United States from DOE, 40. "Aluminum Recovery? Can Do!',"Swe- Estimates of U.S. Wood Energy.Consumption.'Cal- den Now,February 1982; 1984 estimate from culation of oil. equivalent assumes 17.2 mil telephonesurvey of U.S. reverse fending ma- lionBTUs dry ton of-wood, burned at 45 chine anufacturers condticted by. World-, k percent efficiency, and 5.8 million BTUsper minor, October 1984. barr&of fuel oil, burned at .65 percent 'effi- iese cien-T, examples aredisetASedin Ch "Recycling Materials."._ . 33, For a more detailed discussion ofgco- 42c. Boulder, Colo:, exaiiiple .from thermak energy diWelopinent, see Christo- pher Flavin and Sandra Postek"Developing Germani, "Sweet Smell ofSk.6ss: Creative-. Recycling Firm Draws in Volunteers-TAnd'a Renewable Energy," in Leste1 R: Brownet Profit,"Christian Science Monitor; ,'May al., Stateof the World-1984(New York,: W.V.. 11 Norton & Co 1984). 1984;layan student -associations tleibectin Saikuru No Chish:iki (Tokyo:The Clean Japan 34. Philippine Ministry of Energy,Ten Year Center, 1983). Energy Program,1980-1989(Manila: 1980). 43. Brian Hammond, "Recycling Begins. 35, Patricia Adams, "Wood Energy: Re- At Home," New Scientist, July 1.7, 1975. kindling an Old Flame,': Energy Probe, 44. Rachel Carson, Silent gpritig; (iloston: Toronto, March 1981; MatthewL Wald, "Canadian Power, Will Lower Northeast's Houghton Mifflin, 1962); -E,F, Schumacher, Small is Beautifith economics as if People Mattered Bills," NewYorkTimes,September 1 , 4; New York: Harper and Row, 1973). Hydro-Quebec,Annual Relioll1 (Mom- .0 real: 1983). 45. R:P. Tiirco et al., ,'Nuclear, Winter: 36. "Ring of Confidence for Japanese Re- Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear cycling,"NewScientist, January 24, 1980. Explosions," 'Science, December 23, 1983; Paul R. Ehrlich et al., "Long-Term Biological 37. Enetglii savings from recycling from Conseqtiences of Nuclear War,"Science,De-. William U. C andler, "Recycling Materials,'? .cember 23, 1983; Paul R. Ehrlich'et al., The Nola (387)

Coll and the .Dark: The World After Nuclear War 50. Role of the U.S. Office of Technology

(New York: W.W. Norton Sc Co., 1984). r . Assessntent discussed in Jen H. Gibbons, "Technology Assessment- for the Congreits," 46:Gerald O. hat G.O. 13alrty and The Bridge tjowcal of the Niitional.AcKlemy Associates,Inc., Arlington,'Va.,, private com- of Engageering), Summer 984. munication, November 5, 1984. 51. W rren C. 13ennis, "Where Five All 47. M. Mitchell Waldrop, "An 11(1040mo the Leaders GoOe?," Technology fievisw, the State of the Earth," Science, October 5, March /Aril 1977. 1984. .10. 5*. Emergence of the Clkipko Andoliin 48. Guppy, "Tropic-al Deforestation." movement discussed in Centre for Science ,49. Joseph\ E.Slater,Governance (New and Environment, State of India's Environ- York: Aspen Institute for Humanisiic Stud- ment. ies, 1976).

O 1. -1 Index 4

- abortion,'.# 216, 221: see also family planning; energy used to produce, 150, 153-54, sterilization 236 acid rain, 97-123 and hydropower, 1.76-77 and energy demand increases, 98, 148 as pollutant, 102 economic consequences of, 108-12, recycling of, so recycling, of aluminum 121 - Amazon Basin reduction strategies, 166, 230 forests of, see tropical rain forests see also air pollution; deforeStation; rainfall decline in, 12,-13 metals; nitrogen oxide; ozone; sulfur rarity and extinction study in, 13-45 dioxide species lossin, 128-29 Adirondack', 98, 102 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Afghanistan, 56 Economy, 155, 191 Africa American Farmland Trust, 229 agricultural trends in, 21, 23, 38-.89, 201, American Solar King, 183 222 anchovies, 75, 77 alcohol fuels in, 192 Andersen, K.P., 80 climate changes in, 4, 11 Ando, Dr. Jumpei, 116 demographic transition in, 21 animal husbandry, 134, 139-40 desertification in, 13-14 Antarctica, 80, 188 family pilanning in, 4, 39, 201 Appalachians, 103 106-08. forest protection in, 145 appliances, see energy efficiency, for home fuelwood in, 165 appliances Population growth in, 5, 202, 204-05 aquaculture, 'see fish farming; salmon water supplies in, 43 ranching see also individual countries in aquifers, 51-52, 61; see also Ogallala aquifer ' Agency for International Development Archer-Daniels Midland, 193 (AID), 3, 64, 212 ARCO OirCompartY, 195 Agriculture, US. bepartment of (USDA), ARCO Solar Industries, 187, 197 24, 25, 136, 193-94 Argentina, 25, 35, 192 Agriculture, 34-36, 13034, 150; see also Arizona, 18-1-82, 188 cropland; grain; soil Arizona Groundwater Management Act, 71 Agriciikire: Toward 2000, 33, 95 Army Orps of Engineers, 52 Iair pollution, 98-102, 118-21; see also Arrhenius, $vantc, 15 -forests artificial insemination, 36, 135, 139-40 Alaska, 91 Asia Alaskan king crib, 77-79,*2 alcohol fuels in, 192 alcohol fuels, 173, 189-96', dam construction in, 174 algae, 1 0,t1; 195 forests in, 145, 231 alternative energy sources, see renewable rice Partners in, 132 energy water supplies in, 43 aluminum see also individual countries in ie

(9.0 Indd r Asian Development Bank, 93 foresti in, 130, 231-32 Aswan Dam, 42 freight transport in, 160 Australia hydropower plans of, 174 0 cemept-making in, 156 irrigation in, 63 'coal reserves in, 19 methanol research in195 solar energy in, 180,,181, 184, 8-89s oil produiction iq, 157 190, 192 population rowth fit, 11-12, 22,i42; Austria, 175 204, 239 automobiles railroad decline in, tt() fuel efficiency of, 149, 157-60, 169-70, as renewable energy leader, 2)4 236-3)7 re ettetnent projects in, 12,4r.5. 146 A nitrogen' taxide emission source, sourpond experiment in, 18 99-100, 112, -116-11 steel production in, 151, 153, as ozone producers, 117 sugatcane in, 190-91 water transport in, 160 Bailey, William, 180 Brill, Dr. Winston J.;-137, 141 .Bapgladesh Brookhaven National Laboratories, '183-$4 breast feeding in, 206 Bronzes, Dr. Raymond, 1110 family phMning in, 2'14 -16, 224-27 Brown, Jerry, 245 r/.

E population growth in, 204-05 Brown, William L., 134 \ village expansion in, 26 buildings, 161-65 wafer supply per capita in, 46 Bulgaria, 26-27, 45, 114, 181 Bauerschmidt, Rolf, 159 Bullard, Clark, 171 Beddington, John R., 80 beef production, 9 California Bennis, Warren G., 245 appliance-elliciency standards in, 67, 163 'biological diversity, 124-46, 223 . electricity from renewable. sources in, 198 csmstrvition strategies for, 26-27, 45, .07.011C in, 107 113, 181 ..salmon-harvesting laws in, 91 see also genetic diversity solar projects in, 172, 181-82, 185-88, biosphere reserves, )45 197-98, 238, 245 biotechnology, 341rfee also embryo transfer; State Water Project in, 60 genetic diversity; recombinant DNA; water issues in, 61, 66, 68 tissue culture California Aqueduct,' 42 Blue Ridge Mountains, tree growthdecline California Energy Commission, 195-98 in, 107 Canada 22, 39 aluminum production in, 236 Bormann, Dr. F. U., 110 copper recycling in, 122 Brazil cropland in, 27 acidification antipollution stress in, 101, dam construction in, 174 234 electrical utilities in,*99 a alcohol fuel in, 5, 157-58, 172-73, endangersed species legislation in, 143 89-90, 192; 195, 239 energrefficioncy in, 161, 162,-164, 236 Amazon, see Amazon Basin; tropical family planning aid from, 217 forests, fisheries in, 92 automobile in, 157, 239 forest indusiry in, 110 Coal consumption in, 114 hydrbelectrility exports of 175-70; 239 cropland in, 27, 234-35 natural gas price control in, 169 dam construction 4n, 174, 175 nitrogen oxide emissions in, 114 desertification in, 13 oil price control eliminated in, 169 electrical nibtors in, 155 pollution in, 99 - energy use in, 149 as paish fertilizer producer, 31 foreign debt and oil imports. 148 'renewable energy in, 238-39 Jol

4. Index (291)

aalmon ranching in, 90 S waterloggittg and sa inizshion in, 56r sulftir dioxide emissions in,100, 110 water pollutonsin, 5 51 wetter supply in, 44. 55 Year 2000 studies of, 244 Year 2000, studies of,,244. clams, 81; 88 carbon dioxide (CO2) Clausen. A.W,. 200 I- F , control-stratsgies; 1 1 ; see also energy Clean Water Act, 66 \ efficiency... renewab e rgy climate changes fissions of, 4..6, 15*-- and agricultural investment capital, 18 p a d West's, 223, 233-34 and deforestation, see deforestation . anwater supply reduction, 52 and energy policies, 5, 148

carp,4-88 . and fossil fuels, 4. 14 -19 Carson,. Rachel, 243-44, population-induced, 10-14 Carter, President Jimmy, 1.14.. and protected areas. 145 -..

catfish, 85-87, 93 `. andiwatcr supplies46 1 Catholic- Church, 202 (292:see carbon dioxide cement industry, 154, 156, 168 soal CeIsiter fitr.the Biology of NaturalSystems, and CO2 levels, 19 and pollution- control for, 172 Centers for Disease Control, 216 'pollution frbm, 98, 112 -17, s ee also' Central America;.25, 196; see also individual nitrogen oxide: sulfurdmide cooktries in ustss increases. 148 cereal grains, 31,.135-36; see also, corn; rice; cod, 74, 75, 77, 92

wheat s k, Colombia Chamberlain. T.C,; 15 contraception demand in, 214 Chang, T.T., 132 and hydropower technology trade with Chesapeake Bay, 81-48!.1 China, 177 Chile, 22, 39 . population growth of, 204 China solar heating project in, 181 acidification and pollutioOrtstress in,I I 1, tree planting in, 2342

114, 234 . whter pollution in, 51 and CO2 increases, 17 Cokirado, 25, 182

coal reserves of, 19 Congo, 232 . cremation in,. 5, 27n. conservation, of energy, see energy cropland in, 21, 24,26, efficiency and ,demographic transition, 21 conservation biology, 142 desertification in, 13 conservation tillage, 229 economy of, 245 contraception, see family planning energy consumption in, 149 copper,9, 102, 121, 122 family planning in, 208, 210, 211, 213,, corn, ,34-35, 121, 135-36 218, 220, 224-27, 246 ica, 127-28, 206, 208 C4fa . . fish farming in, 84-87 crawfish, 85-86

food proddction in per capita, 23 cropland. ... forests itt, 233 changes in withrising CO t levels, 18 , e groundwater overdrafting in, 9, 43, 54 conversion to nonfarm use, 25-26 ## re. t .4 inagation in, 28 . growth in 40 . .. arnitrogen fertilizer producer, 30 pressures'on; 22; 24.-26, 55 oe-child family in, see one-child families see also .irrigaliRri., soil.erosion;individual

reforestation in, 201, 234 countrici's .=s . renewaUle energy in 174-76, 181 crops, unconventional,;') river diversion in, 59 Cuba, 190-92,.202; 216 . mall-hydropower development in, 177 Czechoslovakia : , .,... (*Oil erosion in, 8;21; 228-29 forests damaged tly *id rain, 4, 105, 231: steel production in, 151-5* 236 small hydroelectric itations'in, 178-79. ' .. , c3t9A.) Index Czechoilovakia(continued) energy demand, '147-50, 169 st larhot water heating in, 181 energy e%ciericy, 147-4'71, 21.5-37 rater for industry increased in, 48 in buildings, 161-62, 1/34-65, 236 and, conservation, 166-71, 173 dams;113-79; sle also riverdiversioh of hcime appliances, 122, 162-63 projects improvententi in; 18-19,161-65, 172 Qarwin, Charleis 1.404, 126, 134, 143 in industry, 150-57 deforestation, 15, 107-12, 123-30, 237;see labeling for, 170 also forests; individual countries policies to elcourage, 166-71;see also -demographic transition, 19-22, 205-.06 - recycling Denmark, 161, 163 as pollution control-stratee, 121-22 Depo. Provera, 208, 212 in Tlitrd.sWorld, 165 - desalinization, 62 in transponation, A 57-61 desertification, 13-14,.22 energy prices, 32233, 112,147, 168-71 developing., ,countries,see.Third World energy production DiPippo, Ronald', 196 countries self-sufficient in, 223 . disease epidemics, 129 A deceqtralimion of in future, 223 Dian( Water, 92-93 Water for, 48, 65 DNA,'seerecombinant DNA Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Dominica, 58 193, 241 "Dunning, tlarrisbn C., 70 Erwin, Terry Lee, 128, Duvick, Donald, 134 estuaries,-81-83- ethanol, see alcohol fuels. East. Germany, 31, 48, 105-06, 114;selnalso Ethiopia, 3-4, 204, 224-Q7 West Germany , Europe f Eastern Europe, 24, 113, 118, 150, 159;see fl farming in, 85 also individual countries in forests in, 98, 1'08, 231 EconoMic Commission for Europe(ECE), freight transport in, 160 see United Nations,Economic. nitrogen oxide emissions in, 118 Commission for Europe ozone levels in, 103 economic trends, andecosysteminteraction, pOpulation stability of; 203 6-10 reforestation of, 4 Ecuador, 22, 39 tot. solar power in, 184, 186 Edmonds, Jae, 166, 169 sulfur dioxide levels in, 103, 118, 120 Egypt see alsc European Economic Community; energy price subsidies in, 169 individual"countries in family planning in, 209 European Economic Community (EEC), irrigation system management in, 64-65 automobte emission standards of, 117 population-growth goals in, 226 nitrogen oxide emissions of, 114 water supply tn, 42, 45,.46 solar hot water sys,teros in,' 181 Ehrlich, Paul, 244 sulfur dioxide of, 113, 120 El Poo, Texas, 52-53, 67 Exclusive Economic Zonis, 84, 92-93J\ electric motors, 154-56 extinctions, 125-30 Electric Power Research Instittne, 155, 165 human - caused, 125 electrit utilities, sulfur dioxide emissions mass, 126-27, 130, 142 fl-oni, 99 ' - rates of, 127-28 embryO transfer, 36, 135, 139-40 Exxon, 182 Endangered SpeCies Act, 143-44 . Energy,U,S. Departinent pf (DOE) Family Health International, 212 alcohol-fitel prodUction funded by, 192 family planning CO t projectionsof, 18, 167 in Mica, 4, 39, 201 energy Conservation scenario of, 166417 and hreast.feeging, 206-08 and renewable energy, 198 and contraceptive technologies, 207- sol#r projects of, 182-86 14." Index (293) cost.," providing, 226-27 .coak metals;nitrognoxide; cultural differences regarding, 210A dioxide and marriage,age 206 fossils and the flistory'of Life,127 and one-child family,seeone-child Frail& ..... families ..aluminum produeion in, 153 - and parameslics,'216 automobile reel in, 1897.90 sterdlization as. 208-11, 212, 245,1:221 'Wilding energy efliciencY in, 16k, 163' sudiesses;-,220-21 cropland in: 24-25 . unmet 'dernand for,4202 family planning in, 209 see alsoiridividpal countries 4 forests in, 105 FAO,seeUnited Nations, Food and Oil tax irr, 169 Agrivltural Organization pdpulation decline in, 203 Fearnstde, Philip, 1 _ \potash fertilizer in, 31 Federal Energy Regirkry Cognission, renewable energy in, 178, 181 4,.)85,.

178 . 192, 195 ' , fertility; 202-08;see alsofamily planning; water in, 48 population Frankel, Sir, Otto, 146 fertiliser 'Use, 29-33, 4) FrostItc Sullivan, 189 Fiat, 159 ,furnaces, 162, 170 Ficner,'G. A., 162 Finland, 48, 68, 203 Gala Hypothesis, 125 fish gas, 169, 193, 237 in acid lakes and streams, 121 gasohol, 192-93 as animal protein source, 73 Geller, Howard, 155, 191 I catch worldwide, 73 gene banks, 132 -34, 145, 223 ConStiniptibn in world, 75 gene.splicing,seerecombinantDNA and hydropoWe development178-79 General Motors, 158, 159 print, Arise for, 96 kenetic 'diversity, 129 SaealsoindiCidual fish agricultural uses of, A45,4'30-34 fish, farming, 9,' 74, 83-89 biotechnology's need for, 125, 1,17-42 hOeries 0, 9, 73-96 and ecological balance, 125 Flpifda, 31; 54,,'67, 180-82 plant breeding 4rograms and, 223 Fluharty, David; 7,8 t m salmon, 91 FoOd:and AgriulturallOirganization (FAO), of wild populations, 138 Vel./hited Nations, Food and sec alsoextinctions' AgricitlturillQ4anization genetic engineering,seerecombinant DNA; food prOduction and supplies,23-41 tissue culture food resieve-s. 37 geothatnal energy, 196, 237-38 food seem*, 4;"36-!39;230 A germPhilsm conservption,.see gene .banks Ford, Henry; 189 Ghana, 116, 206 Ford Motor company; -glass recycling, 241 forests Global 2000,244 .. and air polluticinfaCid paw.,,6, 07-123, Goddar11istitute fdr Space Studies, 12. 231-33; 237V :r Gojase i, 215 'A, climatic role of, 237.14 4 folder berg, Jose, 157 genetic resources Of, 136 qornick, Dr. Ely, 110 harvesting practicesip, -111-12 grain, 8, 21, 131, 194, 228 and heavy metals, 98;\ Greece, 180 mangrOve, 129 Green Revolution, 147 plantations, 111 greenhouse effect, 15-19;.see also carbon. reforestation. programs for,V1045_ dioxide (COT); climate

see also deforestation; 'tropical rain, forests; Guatemala, 07, 232 *- individual countries Gupp y; Nicholas, 146,,245 fossil fuel comb ition,-see air pollution; .i.Guava son, Thane, 51,9-60 . (-2q) lncx 'v haddock, 75 contraception highly desired in, 214 Ha4tert, David, 186 z.. family planning in, 209, 210,220 Hathmond, Brian, 243 forest fire in, 4, 129-30 Hare . neth, 11, 14 as nitrogen.fertilizer producer, 40 Heerson- ellers, Ann, 12 population growth goals*, 226 he'lig, 55, 4-76 renewable energy in, 192A 196 'first, Eric, 169 resettleinent program of, 25, 146 Honduras, 232 rice harvests in, 132 Hoover 'Dam, 174 - water suriplyin,44--,0 HoustiM, Colin A. &Associates, 196 industrIalizatioit, andiffiter .pollution Houston-Galveston, Texas, 54 1 payment; '69 Hoxan Coniparty,,4197 infant mortality rates, X222 Huffirtah, James, 70 insects, .10t 128, 13()..L Hungary . Inter-Atnerican Develppment Bank, 639:3 abortions in, 216. ItteriOr, U.S. Department of, 144 births and deaths equilibrium in, 20 ,Interbational Board for Plant Genetic ecortOrny of, 245 Resources, 133, 136 geothermal energy in, 238 International Cell Research Organization, population decline in, 200 -140 Hydro-Qnebec,* 176 IS International Center for Living Aquatic hydroelectric power, 148, 172- 79,'237- Resources, 80, 88, 95 38 International Council of Scientific Unions, hydrology, and forestirutting, 130;see also 6, 244 water International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 244 Iceland, 244 t International Institute of Tropical Idaho, 178 Agriculture, 229 Idyll, C.P.,. 78 * International Monetary Fund, 32, 41, 159 in vitro fertilization, 135 International Nickel Company, 99, 100 India International Paper, 110 acid rain in, 111, 114 A International Planned Parenthood Chipko Andolan (Hug the Trees) Federation, 216. movement 4'246 International Rice Genriplasrn Center, 132 coal reserves in, 19 International Rite,Research Institute, 133 desertificatimi in, 13 International Union for Conservation of energy use in, 149 Nature, & Natural Resources, 129,. 143. family planning in, 208, 210, 211, 215, Iran, 204 218, 220, 224-27 Iraq; 55, 204 fish (arming in, 84 Iron and steel, set steel-making `.^ forests in, 231-32 irrigation groundwater overdrOing in, 9, 43, 46, and agricultural production, 25 534,4, 69 .capital needed for, 29 , irrigation in, 28 with rising CO, levels; 18 as nitrogen feFillizer producer, 30 and crop yields, 47, 55, 228 population giowth in, 202,- 204. and cropland productivity, 40, 228 'reforestation in, 235, 246 government-funded, 68, 69 renewable eirgy,in, 181, 189 manageMent techniques for, 63-65 soil loSs est'ate in, 228-29 6 trends in; ?7-28; 40 steel-inaki in, 1152; 183, ,in United States, 28, 52, 63,68 Water stnsge underground in, 61 set also individual countries waterlogging and sa inization in, 55 Israel Ihdiart'subcontinent, 17, 22, 204-05 /. irrigation in, 63-64 Indiana, 192 phosphate fertilizer in, 3.1 0 Indonesia salt-water intrusion in, 54' - . .. A- .

..A7- i".- Nips (395) solar industry of 180;8), 184-89 L'vovich, M.1., 62 .water in, 61, 65, 67, 68 La Jet Energy Company, j88 Italy land use, 18; see also cropland aluminum production in, 154.'236 landraces, 13234 crpland in, 24, 26 LAOS, rit forests in.,105 LaPortti, Carlo, 186 industrial energy in, 150-51 Latin America oil tax in, 169 aborjions in, 216 reforestation in, 231 contraception demand in, 214 ."renewable energy 181, 238 danrinkstructipott in, 174 steel production ii151, 236 debts of, 222 r water-efficint.aiipliance laws in, 67 forest prcttection in, 145 gullying in,, 26 . Japan population growth in, 204-05 aluminum prodpction in, 154 Water 'pollution in, 48, 51 automobiles it,117, 157-58, 236 lead, 99,.102 cropland in,4, 26 Lehr, Jay H., 62 energy-efficit industries in, 117, 150 Libya, 219 family planning aid from, 217 livestock, 36; see also animal husbandry fertilizer use iri, 31 livest-ock, unconventional, 135 fish consumption in, 75, 76, Long Island Lighting Company, 182 fish farming in, 84 Louisiana, 86 Lovejoy, Thothas, 128 gene banks MI 132 .. ,. as nitrogen fertilizer producer, 30 Lovelock, James, 125 oil payments in, 148, 169 Luz Engineering, 185 paper recycling in,,1.55 pollution,controls in, 115-16 Malaysia, 57, 107 population in, 204 Man, Alan, 148 .recycling in, 240-43 Marolis, Lynn, 130 refrigerators in, 163 Marine Biological Laboratory (Woods Hole), 15, 142, 234,, renewable energy in, 180, 181, 195,197 Maryland, 83 rics yields in,35, 36 mass transit, 159-60 salmon ranching in, 90 Matsumoto, Munro, 241 steel production in, 149, 150-53 -Mauna Loa, 15-16 Year 2000 studies of, 244 MaY, 'Robert M 80 jitney, 159-60 *Donnell Douglas, 187 Jordan, 31 ''McNeil, William J., 92 metals, 48, 98-90, 102, 242 Kellogg, William W., 16-17 methanol, see alcohol fuels Kentucky, 161 Mexico Kenya' .. . automobile pollution in, 107 alcohol-fuel plant in, 192 energy price subsidies in, 169 breast feedifig in, 206 family planning in, 214, 224-27 contraceptive demand in, 215 irrigation in, 25 family planning in, 217 as nitrogen fertilizet producer, 30 PopOlation in, 200, 202, 219 population of, 201, 204 soil conservation in, 39 solar heating research in, 181 soil erosion in, 230 water sum*/ in, 27, 43, 52; 228 water supply per capita in, 46 Year 2010 study proposed for 219, 244 Kratie,.Dr. Ge,org, 104 Michigan, 67 -.Krause, Or, W110 Micklin, Philip, 5445 krill, 80, 94 Microbiological Resource Center, 140 Krarti. Company, 197 Middle East, 30, 181, 184, 204-05 (396) Index' Minnesota, 116, AI, 242 nuclear energy, 19, 117, 148; 172, 197 Mississippi, 88 , , nuclear winter, 244 Miftsui Alumink Corporation of Japan, 154 Nyerere, Julius, 6 Montana, 25, 7131/4 , Morocco, 31 oceanic fisheries, 76-81 motor vehicles, see automobiles OECD, ,seeX)rgmlisation for Egon is Motorola Israel Ltd.,464 Co- operation and Development Mozambique, 176 Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Mustafa, M.A.B., 211. (OtA), 34, 195, 233, 245 Myers,-.Norman, 142 -48 Ogallala aquifer, 9, 2129, 51-52, 61, 4, 68-769 Naek, A. Latif, 211 oil, 7-8, 08, 235-37 National Academy of SciAccs, 12, 131 oil substitutes, 136, 218; see also renewable ,National bistitutes of Health, 141 energy ir nvjon al park? and preserves, 145 one-child families, 202, 218, 224-27; see also -National Research Council, 135, 136 family planning National Resources Inventory (U.S.), 228 Ot,egon, 91 National Water Well ,Association,-62 Organisation for Economic Co-operation Nepal and Development (OECD), 140, 154,

forests in, 232 . 157, 169 hydroelectric potential in, 176, 239 Organization of African,Unity, 6 land mismanagement in, 39 Organization of Petroleum Exporting solar heating in, 181 Countries (OPEC), 7 Netherlands, 85, 155, 241, 243 oysters, 81, 82, 85, 88 New England River Basins C,ortimission, ozone, 101, 103, 107, 110, 114, 121 4, 178. Hampshire,ampshire, 106 Pacific Gas Sc Electric, -182, 185, 187 .New Jersey, 107 Packerland meat-packing plant, 183 NeW York, 67, 100-03, 106, 176 Pakistan New Zealand, 195; 238 fitfully planning in, 211 Nigeria - hydropower in, 177-78 cropland in, 27 irrigation in, 25, 65

debt in, 202, population growth in, 204 4-, family planning in, 224-27 water in, 27, 01-6? mass transit in, 159 waterlogging and salinization in, 55 'population Evow t h in, 204-05 paper, see pulp and paper industry; water supply per capita inz 46 recycling, paper Nippon Steel Corporation, 152 Paraguay, 175, 239 nitrogen oxides 98-100, 112 =-17 Pennsylvania, 100 nittpgen fixation, 35-36, 102, 140 Perkins, Dwight, 26 NORPCANT, 213-14 Peru North Amerrica ;anchovy fishery collapse in, 77, 80 building energy efficiency in,-161 contraception highly desired in, 214 and COit increases, debt in, 202 forestsin,98, 231 grain output in, 22 lakes a'nd streams acidifying 11, 121 land mismanagment in, 39 population of, 205 reforestation in, 231 sulfur dioxide emissions in, 113, Philippines water supply'in, 44 debt in, 202 North Carolina, 106 renewable energy in, 192, 197, 238-39 North Dakota, 62 tree planting in, 282 Norway, 75, 91, 105, 16, 239 Year 2000 ,studies of, 244 Norwegian Interdisciplinary .Researth photovoltaic cells, 122, 184, 197 Programme on Acid Precipitation, 112 pine, 104-05, 109, 284 Index 1 (297) Pioneer 1-1i,-Bred International, 34, 134 renewable energy, 172-vo, 73 7-4 0;see also plant breeding, 139-42 .alcohol fuels; geothermal energy; plan1s, endangered species list of, 143-44 hydropower; solar water heating; sola Plotkin, Mark J., 143 - therwal power; wood fuel- Plumbing Manufacturers Institute, 66 rice, 17, 28, 47, 131-32 Poland river diversion projects, 52, 56-62, 72, coal reserves in, 19 Roan Corporation,.185 cropland in, 24 Robitanle, Dr. Gilles, I 1 1 familyplanningin, 209 rockfish,seestriped-basr forest destruction in, 4, 105, 237 Rockwell International, 187 pollution control, integitted strategies Romania, 105, 181, 216' required for, 121-23;setalso air Rose, David, 166 pollution; water, pollution conti-ol for rosy periwinkle, 138 pollution control laws, 66, 100, 112 Ross, Marc, 152 population, 6, 10-14, 22, 142, 200-1, Rubinoff, Ira, 145, 146 224-27;see alsoindividual countries Population Council, 212-13 Sacramento Municipal Utility District, 197 Population Institute, 226-27 Sagan, Carl, 244 Portugal, 48 Sahara, 13, 17 potatoes, 194 Sahel, 9-13 Power, Thomas, 60 Salas, Rafael, 202 Program for Applied Research on Fertility salinization, 55 -56 Regulatooyq, 212 salmon, 55, 81, 92-94 protoplast fupi n, 139 salmon ranching, 89-92 Public Utiljtef Regulatory -Policies Act of salt-water intrusion, 54 1978, 178, 239 Salton Sea, 188-89 pulp and paper industry; 48, 0-66, 110, San Bernardino Mountains, 107 121, 150, 154-55; setalso"iecycling, San Joaquin Valley, California,'56 paper Saudi Arabia, 68, 189 Scandinavia, 97, 238 gpazi, Akef, 26 Schipper, Lee, 161-62 quinoa, 135-36 Schultes, Richard 'Evans, 1441 Schumacher, E.F., 243-44 railroads, 159-60 Schware, Robert, .16-17 rain forests,see tropical rain forests Science Council of Canada, 27 Raup, David, 127 Scotland, 91 Reagan, President Ronald, 71, 120, 121 Sears Roebuck,and Company, 182 recombinant DNA,-34, 137, 139-41 seeds, 47, 130, 134 recycling, 223, 240-43 Senegal, I1 aluminuM, 122, 154, 241-42 Sepkowski, John, 127 antifreeie, 156 Siderbras of Brazil, 152 copper, 122 Simberloff, Daniel, 130 glass, 241 Simpson, George Gaylord, 127 metal, 242 Sircoulori, J., 13 paper, 122, 151, 155, 223, 240-43 Slater, Joseph, 245 plastic, 156 smelting, 98-99,log,112 as pollution-control strategy, 121-22 Smil, Vaclav, 50-51, 233 steel, 151, 241-42 smokestacks on power planti, 100, 115 of tires, 156 soil waste 'rat, 154 conservation, 40-41, 109, 223,.227 -30 water, 48, 65-66 contamination, 97, 101-03 RedDataBooks,143 erosion, 7, 26, 40-41, 2284-29 reforestation, 230-35 see alsoindividual countries refrigerators, 163, 170 solar collector sales, 172 . Index-

Solar Kinetics Company.° exas,t18 S ni, 1 .e ,. Solar One ect, 1 8 jspi6s 01--- At-, Solar100roject 187 , =___. divers and habitat area of, 128-29 solar ponds, 18 9 end ered or threatened, 17,128, solar power tow t:s, 186-88 ) 142-44 , solar energy tax credits, 173, i87 - , tinctioof, 148, 129-3p ,solasiothermal electricity generation, 173, i Ott°s of, 127-28

184.--19 i __, squid, 70; T. 94 1.'" solar wale 173, 179-84 Sri Lanka, 132;192416 Sob' Srivardhana, Ruangdei, 69 South Afrita, 19, 244 1teel-making, 149-53, 156, 168, 236; see also

South Korea .44 indivilual countries' contraception demand in, 214 steel recycling, 241-42 : family planning lin, 210 g'4,41-11in, 171f:111 109 rice harvests in, 132 sterilizNion, 208-11, 212, 215, 221 seaweed -in, 85 Stockholiii Conference onCidificatiorn of solar heating in, 181 the Environment, 103, 11

tree planting in, 231, 233 Stone, Bruce, 59 . Year 2000 studiespf, '244 stoves, efficiency in Third Wor South Vietnam, 132 striped bass, 81, 82, 94 Southeast Asia, I 1I, 130 subsidence, 13, 54 Southern California Edison, 100, 185, 187, Suharto, President, 220 ' 189 sulfur dioxide, 98-100, 112-20, 166-67 Soviet Union -.sustainable society, principal elements of, abortions in, 216 223 and MO? increases, 17, 19 Sweden coa reserves of, 19 . aluminum recycling in, 242 dam construction in, 174 energy effi4Ency in, 161-63, 170 endangered species legislation in 143 forests in05 energy use in, 150, 156-57, 163 I renewable energy in, 176, 197 fen.' izer use in, 31 salmon breeding in, 90 fisconsumption in, 75 'soil changes in, 102 farming in, 85 water for industrial use in, 48, 65-66 fisheries in, 55 Switzerland, 105 forests of, 105 Syria, 54, 56, 200, 204 freight transport in, 160 gene banks in, 132 Tabor, Henry, 188 and grain imports, 23-24 Taiwan, 132 irrigation in, 28-29 takes and pollution, 114-15 land reclamation in, 25 Tennessee Valley Authority, 182 phosphate fertilizer in, 31, Texas, 52;53, 67, 86 population in, 204 Thailand, 207, 214, 215, 226 as potash fertilizer producer, 31 Third. World renewable energy in, 17.5-76, 186, 195, air pollution And acid rain in, 111, 238 113-14 river diversion, in, 59-00, 72 alcohol fuel in, 191-92 salinization ift, 56 biotechnology in, 140-41, salmon ranching in, 90 birth rate lowering versus decline in soil erosion in, 23, 229 living standards,

steel production in, 149, 151-534 156 crop monocuetures, 132 9, sulfur diotide emissions in, 113 dams in, 56-58, 71-72, 174 trains in, 159, 160 debt in, 6, 148; 202 water demands in, 9, 27, 44, 48, 54 deforestation iii, 10

water pollution in,51 desertification of, 222 , (2)) energy strategies in, 117 coal reserves in, 19 family planning in, 201, 211, 21.41'224-27 cropland in, 25 fertilizer use in, 31, 32 energy efficiency in, 164 fish consumption in,.75-76 forests in, 105. fish farming in, 84-85 solar hot water heating in, 181 food in, 39, 41, 222 .las sulfur dioxide polluter, 244 gene banks in, 132-M United Nations, 48,49, 145, 1'63 genetic diversity of crops in. 131 Economic Commission forEurope (ECE), hydropower in, 173 56, 118, 152 irrigation management nit 64 7 Educational, Scientific and Cultural life expectancy in, 9 -IQ Organization (UNESCO), 140, 145 pollution in, 50, 114 Environment Programme, 13, 135, 140 renewable energy in, 240 Food d Agricultural Orgailization soil erosion in, 6 (FAO), 29, 33, 76, 84, 133-35 stoves in, 165 Fund for Population Activities,202-03 iii,n, 48-49, 50, 61, 69 Industrial Devekipment Organization, wood fuelin, 231 140 see 4Lso individual countries of popilationconferences of, 200-01, 204 Thiriy percent club, 120, 244 World Food Conference Tietze, Christopher, 216 of, 201 World Health organization(WHO), 50, tilapia, 88 212 tires, 156, 1701 United States tissue culture, 138 abortions in, 216 Togo, 31 agricultural performance of 23 trace metals, 102 alcohol fuel in, 192-94, 195 trains, 159-60 aluminum industry in, 168, 244 transportation, 157-61 automobiles in, 117, 157,, 158,1168,236 tree growth decline, 98, 107 biomass use in, 196-97 tree planting, benefits of, 223 biotechnology in, 141 tropical rain forests, 11-12, 144-46,230-31 catfish in, 85-87, 93 fires in, 4, 129-30 ceinent-making in, 156, 168 and genetic diversity, 137 chemical industry in, 155-56, 168 as global resource, 244-45 coal reserves' of. 19 inventory of, 142-43 -corn .in, 130-31, 194 a mass extinctions in, 142 crop productivity of, 121, 228 species in, 127-30 crop surplus in, 5 Tucson, Arizona, 52, 67 -dam construction in, 174 tuna, 76, 92 electrical motors in, 155 Tunisia, 31, 206 electrical utilities in, 99 Turkey endangered species legislationin, .143-44 family planning in, 215 'energy efficiency in, Golden Horn estuary in, 83 161, 162, 169, '170 and family planning, 202, 210, 217,246 population growth goals in, 226 farm program in, 229-30 renewable energy in, 189,38 fertilizer in, 30-32 water for induitry increaser in, 48 fish consumption in, 75, 76 fish farming in, 84-86 U.NI, see United Nations forest' products industry in, 109-10 U.S. Solar Research Institute, 195-96 forests in, 103, 106 Uganda, 176 freight transport in, 160 Ulrich, Dr, Bernhard, 102, 103 gasoline consumption in, 157 Ultrasystems Company, 193 gene_banks in, 132 United Energy Corporation, 197 as grain exporter, 23-24 United Kingdom industrial energy of, 150, 151 births and deaths equilibrium in,20 irrigation in; 28, 52, 63 68 (300) Index United States (continuid) conservation. strategies for, 62-68, 71-72 I lighting in, 149, 165-64 demand for, 8-9, 46-50 t natural gas price control in: 109 and energy demand, 148 ' nitrogen oxAde emissions i,rit.100, 114 and food, 27-29 nuclear power in, 172, 197 global supply of. 45-46 oil price controls elinairiated in, 169 for household Ottes, 49, 66, 121 I' _ ozoneand crop.proditctivity in, 121' industtial uses of, 48, 65,66 paper industry in,-155, 168* management of, 42-7-72 photovoltaic industry in, 197, multiple uses for, 46-50, 1,77 plastic recycling. in, 156 pollution control 'for, 48, t)-69 A pollution control in, 66, 113, 115, 116 pricing of, 68-69 - population of 204 inrainfall, 11, 17. recycling kti, 155, 241-243 .- on as saltwaterv55. 68 rehewable.eliergy iv, 173, 175-76,.178, 11140 supplies andttrends, 42-46 186,-84 -1842-864188,)96197-98, supply, and climate shifts, 4 2n Is3k in Third World, 48-10, 61, 69 *salmon ranchirig rn, 90 for ,trinitiort, 160 . seed.itidifstry in, 130, 134 s see also individual countries soil of, 8, 109, 228-29 ,1 water heaters, 163 steel-making in, 1517-V, 168, 242 Water Resources Council, 71- sterilization irr, 208, 211 waterlogging, 55 r sulfur dioxide emissions in; 100, 103, 244 watershEds, 57 -58, 170 trucks in, 160 West Germany water in, 43, 47-48, 60, 62, 66, 67 :automobile, in. 5; 1 9 .t- water pollution treatment farads in, 69 bittliand deaths eqiiilibrium,in, 20 United States Government buildings energy efficiency in, 161, 163 departments of,see.Agency for chemical; industry in, 15$ ' International Development;, coal reserves in,. 19 4griculture; Army Corps of Engineeri; cropland in; 24-25 hergy; Environmental Protection electrical utlltf.ies tn, 99 Agency; Interior; National institutes of family planUing aid from, 2-1.7 Health; Office of Technology forests damaged by aoid.taln, 4,'98, Assessment 10449, 123, -2.57 Urban, Thomas N., 34 industrial energy in, 151 Ursin, Erik, 80 nitrogen oxide emissions in,00 USDA, see Agriculture, U.S.Department of oil tax in, 169 , Utah, 188 pollution control in, 11.5 . population decline in, 200, 203 Varshney, Dr. C.K., 114 potash fertilizer producer, 31 vasectomy, set sterilization railroads in, 159 Venezuela, 169, 231-32 renewable energy in, 181, 185 Vermont, 102, 103, 106. water for industry increased in, 48 Vog-elmann, Hubert, 106-07 Western Europe Volkswagen, 157 and CO,, increases, 1 4 von Liebig, Justus, 29 cropland in,. 24; 26 Vose, Peter B., 12-13 energy efficiency in, 161, 170 gene banks in, 132 Warner,, William, 92' nitrogen fettilizer Producer, 30 waste materials, alcohol fuel, from, 195 railroads in, 159 wastewater treatment, 50-51, 66 wheat, 35, 121, 131 " water, 42-72 White Mountains, 111 acid rain and, 121 Wilkes, Garrison, 132 -35-, agricultural use of, 47, 62-65 wind power, 122, 172-73, 19(3-.98, 237-4 and biotedmology, 140 women, 105i 202, 206,1001,246 k friday (301) wood fuel, 165, 172;196, 238, 246 populatign projections of', 200, 204, oodweli, George, 15, 142, 234 225-226 , -- World Bank renewable etiergx funds from, 239-40 alcohol -fuel plants financing for, 192 steel - makingstu of, 152 -aluminum demand study of, 154 World Development I ert 1984, 200 Brazil's Proalcbot program supported by, World Energy Confereneeof1980, 179 . 190 World FertilitN,Survey, 202,-214 energy subsidy reduction urgqd by, 169de World Health Organization (WI-10):, environmental guideline's for lending by, . United Nations,Nations, World Health 145-46 Organization family planning reports of, 214, 218, Workl,,Wildlife Fund, 128, 144 i2u27 family planning requests to, 202 Yugoslavia. 24', 26 fish farming loans from, 74, 93 fishery emplbyment study by, 73 Zaire, 176 forestry prograillys supPorted by, 232 Zambia, 217,8_ 235 Zhang, Yizhi, 27 hydropower surveys of 174, 179 :Zimbabwe, 136, 192

41.

s , (4. ;pie . , . .

110nany Third World countrieseneration of One-chi d families may be the key to restoring a sustained. improvement hi 11.g standards. Just using the. inmost efficient lights in the United States wouldsave a third of' the U.S. coal-fired Itti,energy. Gene.banks in Third World countries are likely to outnumber those in industrial nations by the end of the eighties.

Africa is "drying out" ..,The desiccation of the continentcan be seen on every hand.

Wind farms provided California utilities with 20 million-dollars' worth of electricity in 1984enough for 40:600 homes. Aquaculture now provides roughly one-seventh of world seafood consumption.

The Soviet Union's planned diversion of Siberian riversmay meet only one-fourth of the water deficit expected in centriil Asia.

"Observers goner:illyagree on the principal Actions .needed to put society on a sustainable footing, !loch as stabilizing population, conserving.soll, and develoeing reneviable energy resources," writes Worldwatch Institute president Lester K.. ' Brown. "But conktsion persists over how well thg.worldis doing in meeting these goals." a State ((the Wor14 1985 is the second in an annual series of reports from. Worldwatch that msisur4 worldwide progress in achievinga sustainable society. Using a broad network. of information sources, the report monitors changesinthe global resource base (land, water, energy, and biological suppbrt Systems), focUsing particularlyon howIthartges there affect the econotri.A natural outgrowth of the Worldwatch Institute's ongoing progress, the book is publithedvin response toa growing demand for policy-oriented'interdisciplinary research. , Here the reader will find news on innovativeor partidularly.successful technical developments; -an'empbasis on global economic connections that policy Makersoften overlook; review national polkiesand programs, including progress toward specific notion,a1goils;and a survey of major financial commitments bygovernments and intioational develop;nent agencies. Of State ithe World 1984 John Strohmedittir f international Wildlife, said "lthiS is rust reading for anyone concerned with or futurer" covet neSttifi av mute *watt