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Artificial Intelligence in Life Extension... Informatica 41 (2017) 401–417 403 Learning Informatica 41 (2017) 401–417 401 Artificial Intelligence in Life Extension: from Deep Learning to Superintelligence Mikhail Batin and Alexey Turchin Science for Life Extension Foundation, Prospect Mira 124-15, Moscow, Russia E-mail: [email protected], http://scienceagainstaging.com/ Sergey Markov ActiveBusinessCollection, Russia, Moscow, d.19 ul. Vavilova, Moscow 117997, Russia E-mail: [email protected], https://activebc.ru/ Alisa Zhila IBM Watson, IBM Corporation, 1 New Orchard Road, Armonk, NY 10504-1722, USA E-mail: [email protected], https://www.ibm.com/watson/ David Denkenberger Global Catastrophic Risk Institute; Tennessee State University Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters; 3500 John A Merritt Blvd, Nashville, TN 37209, USA E-mail: [email protected], http://allfed.info/ Keywords: artificial intelligence, life extension, aging, geroprotectors, biomarkers, machine learning Received: August 31, 2017 In this paper we focus on the most efficacious AI applications for life extension and anti-aging at three expected stages of AI development: narrow AI, AGI and superintelligence. First, we overview the existing research and commercial work performed by a select number of startups and academic projects. We find that at the current stage of “narrow” AI, the most promising areas for life extension are geroprotector-combination discovery, detection of aging biomarkers, and personalized anti-aging therapy. These advances could help currently living people reach longevity escape velocity and survive until more advanced AI appears. When AI comes close to human level, the main contribution to life extension will come from AI integration with humans through brain-computer interfaces, integrated AI assistants capable of autonomously diagnosing and treating health issues, and cyber systems embedded into human bodies. Lastly, we speculate about the more remote future, when AI reaches the level of superintelligence and such life-extension methods as uploading human minds and creating nanotechnological bodies may become possible, thus lowering the probability of human death close to zero. We suggest that medical AI based superintelligence could be safer than, say, military AI, as it may help humans to evolve into part of the future superintelligence via brain augmentation, uploading, and a network of self-improving humans. Medical AI’s value system is focused on human benefit. Povzetek: Prispevek opisuje najbolj učinkovite aplikacije umetne inteligence za podaljšanje življenjske in delovne dobe od klasičnega strojnega učenja do superinteligence. 1 Introduction The 2010s have shown a rapidly growing interest in because their leadership sees great potential for AI in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies [63]. In recent healthcare. Based on the current rate of development, it years, AI has appeared in top scientific news sources, in is probable that AI will become a revolutionary stories that have demonstrated that AI is “smarter” than technology in healthcare in the upcoming decades. humans when it comes to playing a number of AI has the potential to have the greatest impact on boardgames [89] and word games [61], thus revealing the human life span through life-extension technologies, that AI is approaching a revolutionary point in its but the means are underexplored. In this article we development. investigate which AI technologies in healthcare are Investments in AI-related projects have increased likely to provide the best results in the quest for dramatically in the last few years. Global AI startup increased life expectancy. There is a great number of financing reached US$5 billion in 2016 [76]. The current publications about the practical applications of existing market of AI in medicine is estimated at US$1.1 billion AI in medicine and healthcare. A recent review and is expected to grow to US$9.1 billion in the next performed by Ching, et al. [24] describes opportunities decade [118]. Major IT companies including Google, and obstacles for the applications of deep learning in Facebook, IBM, Intel, and Microsoft nearly medicine. Unlike their review, ours concentrates on simultaneously established biomedical subdivisions expected applications of different stages of AI 402 Informatica 41 (2017) 401–417 M. Batin et al. development to fight the main cause of death in humans, The growth of AI’s ability for independent research aging. We demonstrate how gradual evolution of AI in will be increasingly helpful in finding new technologies medicine will result in medically oriented beneficial to lower human mortality until AI reaches the stage of superintelligence able to produce indefinite life self-improvement. We expect that the development of extension. medical AI will at least partly offset the existential AI The considered time span also distinguishes this risk [16] via intrinsic orientation of medical AI on work from other analyses of benevolent AI, such as [16] human benefit and AI’s closer integration with humans and [58], which immediately jump to the stage of via brain implants (see section 7.2). superintelligence, when AI will, by definition, be able to This article is conceptually similar to the report on solve most or all of our problems. As AI is constantly the expected development of military AI [28], in which evolving, we should determine how to use it most the same three levels of the future of AI are considered. efficiently during each stage of its development and look The idea that AI will help us to make large gains in life at the period between now and superintelligence. Only expectancy has been explored in works of futurists Ray by doing this will we be able to achieve the longest Kurzweil [58] and Robert A. Freitas Jr. [36], among possible life extension for currently-living human others. beings. This paper is structured as follows. In section 2, we In this article we outline a path for the application of review the expected progress in AI, the levels of AI to life extension that yields increasing gains at each development of AI, and the predicted timeline for the step. We show that analysis of aging biomarkers and corresponding advances. In section 3, we review the geroprotectors with the use of narrow AI will make the current applications of AI to life extension, as developed largest impact on human life expectancy with a relatively by select startups and academic projects. Prospective small investment. We also show how an increasing near-future applications of AI to life extension and anti- amount of an individual’s healthcare data collected via aging are outlined in section 4, which covers research wearable devices (“wearables”) will feed the data- that is yet to be transferred from academia to the life- crunching ability of AI and provide constant extension industry. The expected effect of artificial personalized monitoring of that individual’s health on general intelligence (AGI) on life extension and ever-deeper levels, thus preventing illness at earlier applications that it will enable are discussed in section 5. stages as well as repairing age-related damage. We also The more distant future of AI, including demonstrate how AI-powered robotics will gradually superintelligence and its effect on life expectancy, is become inner parts of the human body, resulting in outlined in section 6. In section 7, we conclude our cyborgization and high survivability. Our final point of overview with a discussion of the best strategies for interest is integration of AI with the human brain via using AI to maximize the life span of the currently living neuroimplants to enable mind uploading. See table 1 for generation. an outline of the expected evolution of the application of medical AI in life extension. Table 1: Expected evolution of medical AI in life extension. Despite past “winters,” the advancement of AI 2 AI development in the twenty-first technologies has skyrocketed in recent years. We are living in a very exciting moment, considering the overall century rise in enthusiasm for AI. According to one survey [16], a majority of scientists believe that human-level AI, then 2.1 AI development pace superintelligence, will be achieved before the end of the Predictions about the development of AI have been twenty-first century. The current moment (2016–2017), complicated by AI “winters,” periods of decline in is a period of accelerated AI development, fueled partly funding and enthusiasm due to the lack of breakthroughs. by the hype surrounding neural networks and machine Artificial Intelligence in Life Extension... Informatica 41 (2017) 401–417 403 learning. Dozens of startups are working to develop AGI, 2.2 The three levels of the future of AI and they are attracting substantial funding. Achievements development in the development of AI are doubling every year in such areas as complexity in text understanding, speech and In this section we clarify and enhance the classification visual recognition, and natural language conversation of the levels of the prospective AI. These levels are often [33]. mixed in AI discussion, which leads to confusion. If we extrapolate current trends in the performance Narrow AI (weak AI) is the level of a computer and capacity of neural networks, infrahuman (that is able program that achieves above-human performance in a to most things that can do ordinary human being and may specific, narrow task [16]. For example, the tasks of MRI work as a robotic brain; but some complex creative scan recognition and facial recognition require two activity is still beyond its abilities). AI could be achieved differently trained systems, although the underlying as soon as the 2020s [93]. learning mechanism may be the same. Most existing AI A recent, large poll of AI scientists [41] shows that systems are considered narrow AI. The number of such AI is expected to be able to master human language programs is growing rapidly due to the success of around 2026 and, with 50 percent confidence, that machine learning and neural networks. machines will exceed humans in every task by 2062.
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