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Studio Dragon Bloomberg: 253450 KS, Reuters: 253450.KS Regional Company Focus Studio Dragon Bloomberg: 253450 KS, Reuters: 253450.KS Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 9 Nov 2018 BUY, KRW104,000 KOSDAQ: 693.7 High multiples justified (Closing price as of 08/11/18) Price Target 12-mth: KRW120,000 • 3Q18 OP in line with scaled down OP consensus • Airing and production of potential big hits ahead Reason for Report: 3Q18 earnings review Potential catalyst: Growing demand for Korean drama series • Sales to China may resume if ban on Korean content is Where we differ: We are more optimistic than the market lifted • Retain BUY, KRW120,000 TP Analyst Regional Research Team [email protected] Triple-digit profit growth on solid drama sales. Studio Dragon posted 3Q18 revenue of KRW123.7bn (+60% y-o-y, +67% q-o-q) and OP of KRW21.6bn (+225% y-o-y, +195% q-o-q), in line with Price Relative the most recent consensus estimate (KRW22.9bn after Oct). 140,000 180 Broadcast revenue was KRW48.9bn (+17% y-o-y, +44% q-o-q) 120,000 160 100,000 140 and copyright sales revenue was KRW63.4bn (+172% y-o-y, 80,000 120 +120% q-o-q). Domestic/overseas sales of the successful series 60,000 100 40,000 ‘Mr. Sunshine’ boosted its leverage. We estimate the series’ gross 20,000 80 profit (including sales to Netflix) at KRW14.9bn (GPM of 24%). 0 60 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Stock price(LHS,KRW) Rel. to KOSDAQ(RHS,pts) Potential hits airing in 4Q18; production of much-anticipated dramas in 2019. The company is likely to see higher-than-average Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (KRW bn) quarterly profits in 4Q18 with the broadcast of much-anticipated 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue 286.8 370.9 490.7 684.4 drama series such as ‘Boyfriend’ and ‘Memories of the Alhambra’. EBITDA 74.3 106.7 153.5 220.0 These dramas will be aired from 28 Nov and 1 Dec respectively and Operating profit 33.0 57.9 94.2 157.9 sales to major over-the-top (OTT) service operators are expected in Pre-tax Profit 30.3 66.2 109.5 173.3 Net Profit 23.8 51.9 88.1 139.4 Nov. In 2019, the company is likely to continue producing highly Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 23.8 51.9 88.1 139.4 anticipated dramas such as ‘Asadal Chronicles’ and writer Park Ji- Net Pft Attributable to eun’s tent pole series ‘Love Alarm’ (Netflix original series to be aired Controlling Interest 23.8 51.9 88.1 139.4 in 2H19). One or two co-productions based on a memorandum of EPS (KRW) 851 1,849 3,143 4,971 understanding (MOU) with a Chinese operator could commence in EPS Pre Ex. (KRW) 851 1,849 3,143 4,971 EPS Gth (%) n/a 117.4 69.9 58.2 1H19. EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) n/a 117.4 69.9 58.2 Diluted EPS (KRW) 851 1,849 3,143 4,971 Attractive long term prospects. Although it is difficult to forecast Net DPS (KRW) 0 0 0 0 the exact timing of each series’ airing, sales to overseas OTT BV Per Share (KRW) 13,141 15,001 18,144 23,115 providers or their prices, it is encouraging to see gradual growth of PE (X) 76.4 56.2 33.1 20.9 PE Pre Ex. (X) 76.4 56.2 33.1 20.9 demand for Korean drama series. The company’s drama sales and P/Cash Flow (X) 23.9 28.4 19.8 14.5 price could affect its short term share price. However, we advise EV/EBITDA (X) 22.1 25.5 17.4 11.7 focusing on long term factors, such as demand growth and the Net Div Yield (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a company’s production capacity expansion. We keep our TP of P/Book Value (X) 4.9 6.9 5.7 4.5 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH KRW120,000 based on 38x 2019F PE, a 20% discount to the ROE (%) 9.5 13.1 19.0 24.1 Huace Film & TV and Huayi Brothers’ 2011-2015 average PE. This level is justifiable given the similarity between their and Studio Earnings Rev (%): (8.7) (12.9) 8.8 Dragon’s OP growth. Consensus EPS (KRW): 1,823 2,962 3,702 Other Broker Recs: B : 14 S : 0 H : 1 At A Glance ICB Industry: Media Issued Capital (m shrs) 28.04 ICB Sector: Communications Mkt. Cap (KRWbn/US$m) 2,916/2,611 Principal Business: Studio Dragon Corporation owns and operates Major Shareholders drama studios. The Company produces television content, shows, CJ ENM and 6 others (%) 75.7 and dramas. Free Float (%) 23.93 Source of all data: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P Avg. Daily Vol. (‘000) 431 ed: KK / sa: LEY, CS Company Focus Studio Dragon Potential hits airing in 4Q18. The company is likely to see Production of much-anticipated dramas in 2019. In 2019, higher-than-average quarterly profits in 4Q18 with the we expect the production of highly anticipated drama series broadcast of much-anticipated drama series such as including ‘Asadal Chronicles’ and writer Park Ji-eun’s tent ‘Boyfriend’ and ‘Memories of the Alhambra’. These dramas pole series ‘Love Alarm’ (Netflix original series to be aired in will be aired from 28 Nov and 1 Dec respectively and sales to 2H19). One or two co-productions based on an MOU with a major OTT service operators are expected in Nov. We Chinese operator could commence in 1H19. Once China’s assume the two series’ overseas sales at KRW10bn and ban on Korean dramas is lifted, the company’s sales to KRW15bn (including China) respectively, spread over 4Q18 China could also resume. and 1Q19. Earnings review Unit: KRW bn, % Preliminary earnings Vs. our estimates y-o-y q-o-q Vs. consensus estimates ‘18.09P ‘18.09F Diff. (%) ‘17.09A Diff. (%) ‘18.06A Diff. (%) ‘18.09F Diff. (%) Revenue 123.7 123.5 0.2 77.5 59.7 74.3 66.5 124.0 (0.2) OP 21.6 26.0 (17.0) 6.6 224.5 7.3 194.6 24.7 (12.7) NP 17.3 24.4 (28.9) 5.7 206.4 8.9 95.2 20.5 (15.4) Margin (%) OP margin 17.4 21.1 8.6 9.9 19.9 Net margin 14.0 19.8 7.3 12.0 16.5 Difference (ppts) OP margin (3.6) 8.9 7.6 (2.5) Net margin (5.7) 6.7 2.1 (2.5) Note: Based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: DBS Bank Page 2 Company Focus Studio Dragon Studio Dragon: TP calculation Source: DBS Bank Studio Dragon: Earnings estimates on a consolidated basis (KRW bn) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 79.9 74.3 123.7 93.1 92.0 129.3 128.3 141.1 286.9 370.9 490.7 Broadcast 40.7 34.1 48.9 39.8 43.3 53.0 46.2 56.6 131.2 163.5 199.0 Captive 33.0 33.1 48.7 34.9 37.7 46.4 41.5 51.7 105.5 149.7 177.3 Non-captive 7.7 1.0 0.2 4.9 5.6 6.6 4.6 4.8 25.7 13.8 21.7 Copyright sales 32.1 28.8 63.4 43.9 38.6 64.0 71.4 71.4 111.9 168.2 245.3 Domestic 9.4 12.3 17.2 11.1 10.4 20.2 17.0 16.6 44.7 50.0 64.2 Overseas 22.7 16.5 46.2 32.8 28.2 43.8 54.4 54.8 67.2 118.2 181.1 Other (PPL, MGMT, OST) 7.1 11.4 11.4 9.3 10.1 12.4 10.8 13.2 43.7 39.2 46.4 Revenue growth (y-o-y) Revenue 6.0% 19.6% 59.7% 29.2% 15.1% 74.1% 3.7% 51.6% 46.8% 29.3% 32.3% TV programming 54.5% 41.1% 17.1% 2.2% 6.3% 55.7% -5.6% 42.0% 49.5% 24.6% 21.7% Captive 64.0% 51.0% 38.2% 23.6% 14.1% 40.2% -14.8% 48.3% 50.8% 41.9% 18.4% Non-captive 23.7% -56.0% -97.5% -54.0% -27.1% 578.9% 2769.4% -2.5% 44.3% -46.4% 57.5% Copyright sales -12.0% 9.5% 172.0% 70.3% 20.3% 121.9% 12.7% 62.5% 48.4% 50.3% 45.9% Domestic -32.6% 21.0% 68.2% 7.3% 11.6% 63.5% -0.9% 49.1% 43.4% 12.0% 28.5% Overseas 0.6% 2.2% 253.1% 113.7% 23.8% 165.6% 17.8% 67.0% 51.8% 76.0% 53.2% Other (PPL, MGMT, OST) -43.4% -1.9% -8.3% 29.6% 42.5% 8.3% -5.6% 42.0% 35.3% -10.4% 18.4% Operating expenses 69.2 67.0 102.2 74.7 79.8 99.9 110.7 106.3 253.9 313.0 396.6 COGS 66.2 63.7 98.9 71.7 76.8 96.5 107.3 102.7 239.7 300.5 383.3 Production cost 39.2 31.5 54.6 39.4 42.8 52.5 45.7 56.0 124.1 164.7 197.0 Amortisation on intangible assets 12.5 13.6 9.7 13.2 14.0 14.4 15.2 15.6 38.7 49.0 59.1 SG&A expenses 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.5 14.3 12.6 13.3 OP 10.7 7.3 21.6 18.4 12.2 29.5 17.7 34.8 33.0 57.9 94.2 OPM 13.3% 9.9% 17.4% 19.7% 13.3% 22.8% 13.8% 24.7% 11.5% 15.6% 19.2% Pre-tax profit 10.8 11.0 22.1 22.2 16.0 33.3 21.5 38.7 30.3 66.2 109.5 Corporate tax 3.0 2.2 4.8 4.4 3.1 6.5 4.2 7.6 6.4 14.4 21.4 NP 7.9 8.9 17.3 17.8 12.9 26.8 17.3 31.1 23.8 51.9 88.1 NPM 9.8% 12.0% 14.0% 19.1% 14.0% 20.7% 13.5% 22.1% 8.3% 14.0% 18.0% Source: Studio Dragon, DBS Bank Page 3 Company Focus Studio Dragon Revision to annual earnings forecasts (KRW bn) Previous Revised Diff.
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