sustainability Article Understanding the Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Public Transportation Travel Patterns in the City of Lisbon Joao T. Aparicio 1,2,*, Elisabete Arsenio 2,* and Rui Henriques 1,* 1 INESC-ID, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal 2 LNEC, Department of Transport, 1700-066 Lisbon, Portugal * Correspondence:
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[email protected] (R.H.); Tel.: +351-21-310-0300 (R.H.) Abstract: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is creating disruptive changes in urban mobility that may compromise the sustainability of the public transportation system. As a result, worldwide cities face the need to integrate data from different transportation modes to dynamically respond to changing conditions. This article combines statistical views with machine learning advances to comprehen- sively explore changing urban mobility dynamics within multimodal public transportation systems from user trip records. In particular, we retrieve discriminative traffic patterns with order-preserving coherence to model disruptions to demand expectations across geographies and show their utility to describe changing mobility dynamics with strict guarantees of statistical significance, interpretability and actionability. This methodology is applied to comprehensively trace the changes to the urban mobility patterns in the Lisbon city brought by the current COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, we consider passenger trip data gathered from the three major public transportation modes: subway, bus, and tramways. The gathered results comprehensively reveal novel travel patterns within the city, such as imbalanced demand distribution towards the city peripheries, going far beyond simplistic Citation: Aparicio, J.T.; Arsenio, E.; Henriques, R.