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Implications for Pakistan (2002-2014) In pursuit of Ph.D. Degree AFGHANISTAN-INDIA GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN (2002-2014) This thesis is submitted to the University of the Punjab is fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Asifa Jahangir PhD South Asian Studies Session (2013-18) Roll no. 3 Submitted to Prof. Dr. Umbreen Javaid The Director of Centre for South Asian Studies, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan. Afghanistan-India Geopolitical Interests: Implications for Pakistan (2002-2014) This dissertation is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy in South Asian Studies at the Centre of South Asian Studies, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Session 2013-18. Supervisor Prof. Dr. Umbreen Javaid The Director of Centre for South Asian Studies, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Submitted by Asifa Jahangir Ph.D. Scholar, Session 2013-18 Roll no. 3 Reg. No: 2013-USA-1 Centre of South Asian Studies, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan September 2018 Dedicated To My mother, Ishrat Sultana, my spiritual strength, My daughter, Arwaa Ahmed, new beginning of my life & This research is dedicated to the memory of all those Pakistani people martyred in different terrorist attacks since 2001 [when Pakistan decided to join the United States in the War on Terror after the 9/11 incident], and especially the martyred children and teachers who fell to the cross-border terrorists’ onslaught on the Army Public School [Peshawar-Pakistan] during the early hours of school activities dated 16 December 2014 and is a tribute to the families of these martyrs who lost their 144 loved ones in this horrible Peshawar attack. Research Scholar’s Declaration I do hereby declare that this dissertation is my original work. I have not previously presented any part of this work for any other degree elsewhere either in Pakistan or abroad. Data is taken from different sources and has been properly cited in the manner as prescribed by the guidelines of the Advanced Board of Studies of the University of the Punjab. Asifa Jahangir Approval Certification It is certified that this Ph.D. dissertation submitted by Asifa Jahangir on the topic of Afghanistan-India Geopolitical Interests: Implications for Pakistan (2002-2014) has been found satisfactory and according to the prescribed format. In the evaluation process of the Examining Committee of the University of the Punjab, this dissertation is the result of her own research and meets the university standard to warrant its acceptance by the Centre for South Asian Studies, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan. It is recommended to be processed for evaluation by an External Examiner for the award of Doctor of Philosophy degree in the field of South Asian Studies. Thesis viva-voice examiners: Internal Examiner(s)/Supervisor/Director: Dr. Umbreen Javaid, Professor, Centre for South Asian Studies, Univeristy of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan. Signature: External Examiner 1: Dr. Qamar Fatima, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan. Signature: External Examiner 2: Prof. Dr. Naudir Bukht, Dean, Social Sciences, Chairman, Department of Political Science & International Relations, Garison University, Lahore, Pakistan. Signatur: Acknowledgements First of all, I show my humble gratitude to Almighty Allah − the most gracious and benevolent − for completing my dissertation successfully and opening new vistas of guidance while going through this long journey. I express my special thanks to my worthy internal supervisor, Prof. Dr. Umbreen Javaid, the Director of the Centre for South Asian Studies (CSAS) and Chairperson of the Department of Political Science at University of the Punjab (PU). She supported me in many aspects and especially facilitated my visit to the United States because this journey provided me the opportunity to explore new horizons of learning and scholarship. Her noble individuality, warm-heartedness, and soft-spoken supporting attitude have left deep marks on my personality. Her reflective feedback, valuable advice, and positive pressure to meet the deadlines enabled me to complete this dissertation in time. I owe my sincere indebtedness to my co-advisor, Dr. Chad Haines, Assistant Professor at the School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (SHPRS) at Arizona State University (ASU), United States of America. He originally encouraged me to produce new ideas in this dissertation. Without his wholehearted interest, constructive critique, and frequent discussions, it would have been impossible to frame the new ideas properly and finish the maximum amount of work for this research during my short span of residency at ASU. His great supervision and helpful suggestions pushed me to work on this adventurous work. [His evaluation letter of working under his mentorship for HEC has been attached in Annexure II]. I wish to acknowledge my debt to all those institutions and people who supported me to make this research possible. I record my great appreciation to all the research participants for their prompt response to my questionnaire [Annexes III and IV]. I am greatly grateful tp my mentors for their helpful suggestions regarding my write up: Dr. Marium Kamal, Pawal Rehill, Furqan Khan, Dr. Faiqa, Dr. Sabiha Syed, Adeel Javed, Sadia Falki and Amjad Shahzad Gondal. The deepest, greatest and special thankfulness of mine is to the families of Amjad, Hammad Akbar and Aimal Tahirn for their generous help in various forms during my residency in Arizona in the United States. My heartfelt thanks are to Dr. Ayaz Khan, Dr. Qamar Shahid, Saddiqa Baji, and Iram Naseer for their coordination and motivation. I want to thank especially to Rabia Yasmin and Zubair Naeem for their consolatory behavior. I am immensely thankful to Sadia Baji, Almas, Mamta Aunty, Manisha Api and Samaya for wonderful memories, hospitality, affection, and warm-heartedness. May Almighty Allah shower His countless blessings upon all of them, Amen! Everlasting and heartfelt thanks to my in-laws and especially to my sister-in-laws, Marium Kabir and Samra Bilal, who took great care of my new-born baby in my absence, and my brother-in-law, Bilal Kabir, who supported me through thick and thin. This long list of acknowledgements would be incomplete without special thanks to my husband, Mian Ahmed Kabir, for his full cooperation and trust. My profound gratitude, intense love, and immense appreciation for my mother who has encouraged me, kept standing behind me, and prayed for my glorious success and peaceful life pursuits throughout my life. Without her continuous support, I would not have been able to be at this place. I appreciate my sister, Atiya Amin and my brother-in-law, Muhammad Amin Saleem, who fully backed me throughout my academics. I admire the compassionate behavior of all my brothers after my late father, Muhammad Jahangir, and my late brother, Aqib Jahangir. Finally, my daughter, Arwaa Ahmed’s strong memoies have been a great t source of inspiration and advancement while doing research in the United States. Before I finish, my regards and blessings are to all of those named and unnamed institutions and individuals who supported me in any respect during the completion of this project. God bless them all. Asifa Jahangir Contents Page No. Abstract i Acronyms and Abbreviations ii-iii List of Tables iv List of Figures v List of Map vi INTRODUCTION 1 Literature Review 10 Statement of the Problem 23 Significance and Scope of the Study 23 Objectives of the Study 24 Research Questions 25 Research Methodology 25 Plan of the Study and Organization of the Study 38 Limitations of the Study 40 Sr. No. CHAPTER 1 41-88 Geopolitics of Afghanistan-India-Pakistan Triangular Relationship: Conceptual Framework of Unintended Consequences Part I 41 1.1 Conceptual Framework of Unintended Consequences 41 Approach 1.1.1 Conceptual Basis of “Unintended Consequences” 43 Phenomenon 1.1.1.1 Classification of Unintended Consequences 45 1.1.1.2 Causation Mechanism and Factors 46 1.1.1.3 Contributing Variables 47 Part II 1.1.2 Unintended Consequences Approach in International 48 Relations in Realist Paradigm 1.1.2.1 Classification among Unintended Consequences 49 1.1.2.2 Causing Factors and Mechanism 50 1.2.2.31 Defining Variables: Commonality between Existing Approaches of Realism and Unintended Consequences 51 (Intentionality and Complex Systems) 1.1.2.4 Theoretical Approaches: Realism, Geopolitics and 55 Unintended Consequences Part III 1.2 Application of Rationalist [Realism] Approaches to the Unintended Consequences in the Continued Volatility 56 of Afghanistan: Perverse Results for Pakistan 1.2.1 Domestic [Regional] Level: The Geopolitical Context 59 of Foreign Relations between India and Pakistan 1.2.1.1 Prime Endogenous Factor 59 1.2.2 At Interregional and Global Levels: The Geopolitical 65 Context of Foreign Relations towards Afghanistan 1.2.2.1 Major Exogenous Factors: Afghanistan’s Volatile 65 Situation a Tensed Afghanistan-Pakistan Relationship 67 b India’s Rise and Afghanistan-India Relations 79 c China’s Role in Afghanistan and Foreign Relations 81 with South Asian Key Players d Role of the United States in Afghanistan and Foreign 83 Relations with South Asian Key Players Part IV 1.3 India -Afghanistan-Pakistan Triangular Relationship in 85 Geopolitical Context: A Reappraisal CHAPTER 2 89-150 Historical Roots: Orientalist Interpretations of Afghanistan and Indian Subcontinent (Paradoxical Views) 2.1 Introduction
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