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The Review

PB& The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Professor Robert O’Neill AO Board Member, Lowy Institute for International Policy and former Chichele Professor of the History of War and Fellow of All Souls College, University of Oxford.

Professor Lawrence Freedman KCMG CBE FBA FKC Member Lowy Institute International Advisory Council and Professor of War Studies, King’s College, London.

At The Lowy Institute AC MC Former Chief of the Australian Defence Force.

Mr AC Mr Glenn Stevens Chairman Deputy Governor Lowy Institute. Reserve Bank of .

Owen Harries Visiting Fellow Lowy Institute.

The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 The Hon. William J. Clinton, former President of the .

Right: The Hon. MP, Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs.

In early 2005, the Lowy Institute moved into its permanent home at 31 Bligh Street, .

Chairman’s Report 3 Executive Director’s Report 4 Key Events 6 Lowy Publications 12 The Lowy Poll 14 Institute Programs 16 Contents Global Issues 18 International Security 22 The International Economy 24 The Asia Pacific 26 The Directors 28 Institute Staff 30 Visiting Fellows 32 Mr Onkar Kanwar from the Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce & Industry with High Commissioner John McCarthy AO. Left: His Excellency Mr Cho Sang-Hoon, Republic of Korea Ambassador to Australia. Dr Rita Hauser member Lowy Institute International Advisory Council and Chair International Peace Academy, New York. MP, Australian Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

The Lowy Institute is an international policy think tank based in Sydney. It provides an independent voice on international issues that affect Australians and generates new ideas on Australia’s role in the world. Through excellence in scholarship, it offers practical options for improving public policy in Australia and around the world.

 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Frank Lowy AC Chairman Good ideas are not the preserve of the most powerful nations. I believe that Australia, with its small population and geographic position, is as capable of first-rate thinking as any other nation on earth. Australians have already made a rich contribution to their region and, in different ways, to the world. But there is more to be done. For many years I have felt that Australia needs an independent forum to generate creative ideas for improving the way it engages with world issues. The Lowy Institute provides such a forum, backed by excellent scholarship and offering a reputable voice that could be heard anywhere in the international marketplace of ideas. By bringing leading thinkers to Australia and by taking our ideas to the world, the Institute – now in its third year – is connecting Australia with this marketplace. It is possible for the world to govern itself better so that it becomes a safer place for us all. There is a pressing need to deal with issues such as transnational threats of terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, the threat posed by pandemics and the crisis in institutions of global governance. Australia can inject fresh thinking into the debate about these contemporary challenges. Our aspirations are high at home too. In Australia, we don’t just want to debate decisions that have been made, we want to influence the national agenda. Despite its youth, the Institute has already made a contribution to public policy in this country. In 2005, the Institute moved into its Chairman’s permanent home in Sydney’s CBD and was honoured to have Australia’s Prime Minister, Report , formally open the building. He used the occasion to deliver the inaugural Lowy Lecture on Australia in the World, which was one of the broadest and most reflective speeches given about Australian foreign policy in many years. An institution is only as good as its staff, its board and International Advisory Council. The Lowy Institute has gathered individuals of outstanding capabilities in academia, business, governance and policy. I want to thank them and our world class research team for putting the Institute on the map. I look forward to us working together so the Institute can grow and extend its influence. My hope is that we can broaden our constituency through encouraging others to invest in our mission. This is our first annual review. In it, you’ll see what we are reaching for and I hope you find it inspiring.

Frank Lowy AC Chairman Lowy Institute for International Policy

& The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 This has been an intensely active year expertise. Similarly, our speakers’ program for the Lowy Institute, Australia’s first has consistently attracted contributors privately funded think tank devoted to of distinction and quality. international issues. While the Institute has a core of research It has also been its first full year of staff and visiting fellows, drawn from operation at its permanent Sydney academia, government, business and civil headquarters, where it hosted more than society organisations, in equal measure 100 events and produced 29 publications. it also draws on external partners, both The new location, in the centre of Sydney, individual and institutional, and invites has enabled the Institute to strengthen its leading international figures to participate engagement with a diverse audience. in the Institute’s activities. This growing engagement – with political We see special value in developing leaders, policy advisers, journalists, links with counterpart organisations diplomats, academics, the interested public internationally. We have worked with other and companies whose success is linked think tanks in Australia and from Asia, to developments in the outside world – the United States and Europe including the is an affirmation of the value of what International Peace Academy, International the Institute does. Crisis Group, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and The As a think tank, the Lowy Institute is in the Japan Centre for International Exchange. business of applied research and produces As these relationships can cut across independent and empirically driven work established ways of thinking and help to inform and deepen the debate about shed fresh light on international issues, we international policy in Australia. continue to seek new relationships with We focus on issues which require a complex organisations that share our policy interests. policy response rather than a simple rhetorical HIV/AIDS has spread alarmingly in the one. Our research agenda centres on Asia-Pacific region and this year the matters that directly affect the country’s Institute was commissioned by Australia’s interest and on areas where Australia international development assistance can make a helpful contribution to wider agency, AusAID, to develop strategic links international objectives. with the corporate sector and advise on how There is no “Lowy Institute view” of the Australian business with interests in this world. Its mandate is broad, it has no region might help in combating the spread partisan axe to grind and carries no torch of the disease. In early 2006, the Institute Executive for a particular philosophical position. Its was involved in a unique collaboration with vision is one of an open Australia, engaged AusAID, Australian business and The Clinton Director’s with the world. Foundation to work towards this goal. The contemporary world is increasingly While our home is in Sydney, we are Report defined by interdependence and interaction determined to expand our activities into between domestic and international events. other parts of Australia and the world. There is little that now happens in the For this we will need material support world which will not have an impact on from many sources. Led by our Deputy Australia’s economic or strategic interests. Director, Martine Letts, and our Director for Business Development & Community In this review you can see the multiplicity Partnerships, Lisa Middlebrook, we are of issues covered by the Institute this past establishing incentives for financial and year. Highlights include: the inaugural in-kind support for the Institute. Lowy Lecture on Australia in the World by the Prime Minister of Australia, John Frank Lowy established the Institute in Howard; the publication of the Lowy 2003 to mark his 50 years in Australia. Institute Poll which is the first Australian He wanted to give something back to the poll dedicated to gauging how Australians country that had provided his family with view their relationship with the world; so much opportunity and decided to make and conferences ranging from the role this long‑term investment in Australian values play in foreign policy to the social public life. I thank him for his vision, and economic impact of avian flu, to the his personal commitment and his tireless future of Papua New Guinea and football dedication to the success of the Institute. diplomacy. For this, we have drawn Thanks also to our Board for its counsel, on both Australian and international to our International Advisory Council for its ideas and, importantly, to our staff, scholars, researchers and Visiting Fellows for a rich and busy year.

Allan Gyngell Executive Director, Lowy Institute for International Policy Allan Gyngell Executive Director

& The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 President William J. Clinton Key The Clinton Foundation Events In February 2006, the Institute and AusAID co-hosted a function at which President Bill Clinton, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, Frank Lowy AC and Margaret Jackson AC, Chairman of the Asia Pacific Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS, announced significant steps to bolster the Asia-Pacific’s response to HIV/AIDS.

Margaret Jackson AC Chair Airways Limited

& The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 H.E. Mr Ricardo Lagos, President of Chile.

Top: General Peter Cosgrove AC MC. Below: James Fallows, National Correspondent The Atlantic Monthly.

Prime Minister John Howard delivers the inaugural Lowy Lecture.

Key Lowy Distinguished Events Lecture Speakers Series

The Lowy Institute encourages the In April 2005, the Australian During the year, the Institute exchange of ideas across academic Prime Minister, John Howard, hosted the President of Chile, disciplines and international policy opened the Lowy Institute’s H.E. Mr Ricardo Lagos, and foreign areas. It brings together specialists new home and then, to an dignitaries from several countries from a variety of fields who might not audience of more than 250 senior including , Indonesia, Japan, always encounter each other in their Australian and international Mexico, the United States, Pakistan, daily work, but whose interaction guests, delivered the inaugural and the Philippines. Individually, can generate unique perspectives on annual Lowy Lecture. In this many participated in the Distinguished international policy questions. lecture, designed to look at Speakers Series, delivering lectures Australia’s interaction with the which provided an insight into their Its regular program of talks, seminars, world, he outlined the breadth, country or their country’s relations lunches and conferences is attended complexity and practical focus with Australia. The series also by a diverse, informed community of of Australia’s global engagement. provided a forum for discussion Australians and international visitors It was an important statement of with several others, including: who help to shape the public debate. Australia’s foreign policy from a Australia’s Leader of the Opposition, leader who had guided the country ; Australia’s Treasurer, through almost a decade of ; Commander considerable change in the region of the United States Central and in the world. His speech was Command (CENTCOM), General a significant benchmark for the John Abizaid; Professor of War annual Lowy Lecture series. Studies at King’s College, London, Sir Lawrence Freedman; Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, Professor Jeffrey Sachs; and National Correspondent of The Atlantic Monthly, James Fallows. Commander of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), General John Abizaid.

Top: Professor Jeffrey Sachs. Top: Mr Ric Smith, Secretary of Below: Nobel Laureate, Department of Defence, and Professor Peter Doherty. Mr Allan Taylor AM, former Director‑General Australian Secret Intelligence Service. Below: Vanessa Lesnie, Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission, and Rachel Hills.

New Roundtable Lowy Institute Voices Discussions Poll

While most speakers at the These discussions are ideal for robust In April 2005, the inaugural Institute have experience and exchange, often conducted under the Lowy Institute Poll generated expertise, there is also a platform Chatham House Rule, to encourage enormous interest in Australia, where young people can be open and free-flowing debate. the United States and East Asia. heard. The annual New Voices Highlights included: It is the most comprehensive single conference brings together survey of opinions on foreign ~ Robert Milliken, Australian young professionals, under the policy ever undertaken in Australia correspondent, The Economist, age of 35, who have an interest and was much debated. The poll, and Chris Lockwood, Asia Editor, in international issues. The which provides a snapshot of The Economist: Changes in Australia’s 2005 New Voices conference public opinion, will be conducted international economic environment. focused on the practical effects at regular intervals so that, over of globalisation, avoiding the ~ Delegation from National Institute for time, changes and trends in opinion sweeping generalisations that Defence Studies, Japan: Australian views can be tracked. characterise the debate and of East Asian security and potential looked instead at the effects on areas of greater security cooperation communications infrastructure, between Japan and Australia. economic integration and ~ Delegation from the Indonesian human rights. This conference Parliamentary Commission for Defence, exposes young people to a range Foreign Affairs and Information: of perspectives in order to help Present tensions and opportunities broaden the range of experiences in Indonesia-Australia relations. and contact of our future leaders. ~ Delegation from the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), led by Y.C. Deveshwar, President of the CII, and Dr Janshed Irani, Chairman of the India‑Australia Council: Indian economic growth and global integration. ~ Mr Dennis Richardson AO, Ambassador to the United States, Australia/United States relations: Life after the FTA. ~ The Hon. Mr Alexander Alexeev, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: Russia’s position in the North Korea & and Iran nuclear crises. The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Mark Thirlwell, Program Director International Economy, Professor Robert Hathaway, Woodrow Wilson Center, Visiting Fellow Mr Frank Lowy AC with International Advisory Professor Hugh White. Council member, Mr Rupert Murdoch AC.

The Hon. Peter Costello MP, Australian Treasurer.

Wednesday Lowy Lunches Lunches Seminars

One of the Institute’s most popular More formal lunches are held Seminars are an important forum events is its regular “Wednesday regularly with distinguished visitors in which Institute staff come Lunch”. These casual gatherings, to the Institute. Some of these together with other experts addressed by a research fellow, a over the past year have included: to discuss and debate issues. visiting fellow or outside expert, ~ Dr Boediono, Finance Minister Highlights of the past provide an opportunity for Sydney’s of Indonesia: Insights into year’s program include: policy community and the interested the Indonesian economy. public to discuss current international ~ Professor Warwick McKibbin, issues in an informal environment. ~ Dr Alexander Livshits, Deputy Professorial Fellow, Lowy Some highlights included: Director General, Russian Institute: Sensible climate policy. Aluminium: Russian economic ~ Dr Jamie Shea, NATO Deputy ~ Australian Heads of Mission reform, politics and energy policy. Assistant Secretary General, Public in Europe: Australia’s foreign Diplomacy Division: Why is NATO ~ Professor David Vines, and security interests in Europe relevant to Australian security? Professor of Economics and and the transatlantic alliance. a Fellow of Balliol College, ~ Andrew Goledzinowski, Assistant ~ Ms Levinia Crooks, Executive University of Oxford: , Secretary, Counter-Terrorism Director of Australian Society for the dollar, and the need for Policy: After London: Implications HIV/AIDS Medicine: Australia reform of the international for Australia’s international and the response to HIV/AIDS. monetary system. counter-terrorism policy. ~ South Pacific Heads of ~ Mr Abdul Razak Baginda, ~ Dr Robyn Lim, Professor Mission: The Pacific: beyond Executive Director Malaysian of International Relations, post-colonialism and the Strategic Policy Institute: Nanzan University, Japan: Japan’s Pacific Way, a new era? Counter-terrorism and threatening security environment. regional cooperation. ~ Dr Alan Dupont, Program ~ Mr Steve Smith, United States Director, Lowy Institute: ~ Dr James A Boutilier, Special Consul-General: My eight months in Australian merchant Advisor Policy Maritime Baghdad as Chief of Staff to the head marine proposal. Forces Pacific Canada: of the Provisional Authority in Iraq. The new contours of East ~ Co-hosted with Woodrow ~ Michael L’Estrange, Secretary Asia’s strategic landscape. Wilson Center/ANZSOG: United Department of Foreign Affairs States and China: cooperation, ~ Ambassador Lourdes and Trade: Weapons of mass competition or conflict? Arande, Vice Minister for destruction, Australia’s role Foreign Affairs, Mexico: in fighting proliferation. Australia-Mexico relations. Hon Theo Sambuaga MP, Chairman, Commission 1 (Golkar)

Margaret Jackson AC. Top: AO, Former Australian Cricket Captain. Below: Ambassador , Board Member Lowy Institute and Director of the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy at The Brookings Institution. Conferences HIV/AIDS The Institute conducts a number ~ The Chinese economy: of major conferences each year, the impact on Korea and HIV/AIDS has reached alarming proportions often in conjunction with other Australia. Co-hosted with the in the Asia Pacific and in 2005 the Institute think tanks, universities and Australia‑Korea Foundation, was commissioned by Australia’s international businesses. the Korea Australia Foundation development agency AusAID to develop strategic and Macquarie Bank. links with the Australian corporate sector and ~ Overcoming constraints in to advise how Australian business with interests Papua New Guinea (with support ~ Asian Economic Panel Forum. Led in the region might play a more significant role from AusAID). Speakers included by Glenn Stevens, Deputy Governor in combating the spread of this disease. Business Ila Geno, Papua New Guinea Reserve Bank of Australia. leaders responded enthusiastically to the subsequent Chief Ombudsman, Bob Lyon, ~ Football Diplomacy: AusAID/Lowy Institute initiative on HIV/AIDS. Managing Director ANZ Pacific, Engaging Asia through sport. In October, Australian Foreign Minister, Alexander Dr Ila Temu, General Manager, Lowy Distinguished Speaker Downer, hosted a luncheon at the Institute that Government Relations, Placer Mr Steve Waugh AO. brought together senior business leaders who Nuigini. resolved to develop ways to help curb the spread ~ The consequences of a possible ~ Macroeconomic policy and of the disease and to work with key agencies avian influenza pandemic. structural change in East Asia. engaged in the same task. In February 2006, the Co-hosted with CARE Australia, Led by Stephen Grenville AO, Institute and AusAID co-hosted a function at which Dr David Nabarro, Senior Visiting Fellow Lowy Institute. President Bill Clinton, Mr Downer, Frank Lowy System Coordinator Avian and Margaret Jackson, Chair of the Asia-Pacific ~ New Voices: Binding the and Human Influenza, United Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS, announced world together, the prospects Nations, David Templeman, significant steps to bolster the Asia‑Pacific’s for and impacts of globalisation. Director-General Emergency response to HIV/AIDS. A Memorandum of A conference for rising Management Australia. Understanding was signed between The Clinton professionals under age 35. ~ Values and foreign policy. Foundation and AusAID that will extend the ~ Financial and fiscal challenges The role of values in foreign provision of anti-retroviral therapies to China, of demographic change. APEC policy, with guests James and Papua New Guinea. young leaders think tank with Fallows, National Correspondent Dr Robin Brooks, International The Atlantic Monthly, and Monetary Fund, and Malcolm Dr Charles Krauthammer of the Football Diplomacy Edey, Reserve Bank of Australia. Washington Post. In October, the Institute held a one-day seminar ~ Papua New Guinea update. ~ Globalisation and regionalism. on “Football Diplomacy” which brought together Co-hosted by the Lowy Institute Lowy Institute/ANU/European Australian business, sport, administrators, and Asia-Pacific School of Economics Central Bank. economists and foreign policy specialists in an and Government, ANU. effort to understand how sporting relationships ~ Public-Private Partnerships affect Australia’s engagement with Asia and how for Papua New Guinea. the opportunities created by regular international Lowy Institute/ABN Amro. sporting meetings might be leveraged.

10&11 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 All Lowy Institute publications are available at the Institute’s website at www.lowyinstitute.org. The site contains an archive of earlier publications as well as commentary on contemporary events and information about upcoming events and research projects. Biographical and contact details of research staff and Visiting Fellows are also available at the website.

Lowy Institute Paper 05 Lowy Institute Paper 06 Lowy Institute Paper 07 Lowy Institute Papers March 2005 April 2005 November 2005 Lowy Institute Papers are the flagship publications of the September 11 2001 and the China is growing increasingly The landscape of the Bali Bombing in November worried that Taiwan is international trading Institute. These are monograph 2002 evoked images of “drifting away” from China’s environment is changing. length, policy‑oriented papers a militant Islamist wave goal of peaceful reunification, Progress in the Doha Round on international issues containing sweeping the globe from leading China to put more remains painfully difficult, the Middle East, radicalising pressure on countries to a powerful symbol of the extensive original research. They once peaceful Muslim actively reaffirm their One mounting stresses and are peer-reviewed and closely edited. communities around the China policies. Supporters strains on the multilateral world. This Lowy Paper of the cross-strait status trading system. This critically examines the quo, like Australia, now need Lowy Paper looks at truth of this perception to think how to incorporate this transformation in the Briefs by exploring the impact Taiwan’s social and political international context for a number of Islamist and change into their cross-strait trade and trade policy. Policy Briefs are designed to address “neo‑fundamentalist” deliberations or risk being a particular current policy issue currents from the Middle caught by surprise when and to suggest solutions. They are East have had in Indonesia. cross-strait relations take a turn for the worse. deliberately prescriptive, specifically addressing two questions: What is the problem?; What should be done?.

Analysis These papers address broader or longer term issues facing Australia or the international community. They are designed to deepen the understanding of the public and the policy community about important international developments.

Perspectives Lowy Institute Paper 08 Lowy Institute Paper 09 Lowy Institute Paper 10 These are occasional papers, essays December 2005 December 2005 January 2006 or speeches on international events and policy which make a useful How has the Australian- Australia has, perhaps, no This Lowy Paper examines the American alliance survived for closer or more complicated role national intelligence does contribution to deepening the more than 50 years? How can a bilateral relationship than and could play in addressing debate about international policy. Australian governments ensure that with Papua New Guinea. threats to international peace They are more discursive and that it retains public support for Australia is deeply entwined and security, with particular another 50 years? Drawing on with its nearest neighbour reference to the contemporary personal than the other publications. decades of research and writing and has a major stake in its threats of terrorism and on the alliance, this Lowy future. This Lowy Paper calls proliferation of WMD. Paper seeks to answer these for a new political system Working Papers in questions in the context of a in Papua New Guinea and It argues it is neither feasible century of Australian-American a new focus for Australian nor desirable for the United International Economics relations. engagement. Nations or other international These are detailed research-focussed organisations to develop papers on a wide range of Australian an independent capacity to collect secret intelligence; and international economic issues. however, they should be able to receive, access and use sensitive information. 12&13 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 “Thinking about Improving the global environment what Australian 75 16 foreign policy Strengthening the Australian economy should be trying 75 19 to achieve, I am Protecting the jobs of Australian workers 75 16 going to read Combating terrorism a list of goals, 72 15 and ask you Helping to prevent nuclear proliferation to tell me how 69 17 important Promoting human rights abroad each one is 60 25 for Australia:” Improving standards of living in poor countries 57 25 Controlling illegal immigration 55 23 Strengthening the United Nations 51 25 Protecting weak nations against foreign aggression 50 28 Promoting democracy in other countries 34 31

Very important Fairly important 0 100%

“How worried are Unfriendly countries developing nuclear weapons you about the 51 20 following potential Global warming threats from the 46 24 outside world?” International terrorism 41 22 International disease epidemics 36 25 The Islamic fundamentalism 36 21 Lowy US foreign policies 32 25 World population growth Poll 23 23 Illegal immigration and refugees 23 21 Failing countries in our region 17 29 China’s growing power 16 19

Very worried Fairly worried 0 100%

“Thinking about In support of United Nations or regionally endorsed how we use our peace-keeping missions. military forces, 91 To prevent genocide and gross abuse of human rights on should we have the scale of Rwanda, Kosovo or Sudan. the right to use 84 armed force If invited by a failing country in our neighbourhood to help prevent internal collapse. outside Australia 82 in the following To protect Australian citizens abroad. ways?” 80 To disrupt terrorist organisations that could threaten Australia. 79 To prevent an unfriendly country acquiring nuclear weapons. 62 To restore democracy in a country where it has been illegally overthrown. 61 To establish democracy in undemocratic countries. 33

0 100% The Lowy Institute Poll, conducted for the first time in 2005, is the most comprehensive single survey ever taken of Australian public opinion on foreign policy. It generated enormous interest in Australia, the United States and East Asia. As the Lowy Institute’s mission is to inform and deepen debate about international policy in Australia, it is important that it draw out and clarify public opinion about the underlying issues. This survey is the first of a series to be repeated at regular intervals. A core set of questions will be asked in each survey, so that over time an ever deepening set of compatible data will be built. While each survey will deliver a snapshot of Australian views at a particular moment, over time the series will enable long‑term changes in public attitudes to be tracked. The past five years have been tumultuous and it might be that some of the attitudes revealed in the current survey are only temporary. Future polls will settle that question. The poll is designed to capture Australian opinion on a broad range of foreign policy issues chosen for their importance to our nation. While the survey sample is representative of all Australians aged The Lowy Poll is the most 18 years and over, it reveals differences of comprehensive single survey opinion between different demographic groups. of opinions on foreign policy ever undertaken in Australia. The inaugural 2005 poll found that the vast majority believed Australia was “a good international citizen”, was “important in Asia” and “well placed to succeed in a competitive world”. At the same time, about three‑quarters thought Australia was “vulnerable to external threats” and more than half were as worried by American foreign policy as by Islamic fundamentalism. About two‑thirds thought Australia was “a follower not a leader”. Looking beyond our shores, the poll echoed the findings of other surveys in revealing some antipathy about the reach and influence of United States’ policy, and in this case, over Australian affairs. But, being ever pragmatic, more than 70% of Australians thought the ANZUS alliance was very or fairly important for Australia’s security. The results of the survey have been published in a report called Australians Speak 2005: Public Opinion and Foreign Policy. The 2006 edition of the Poll will feature a set of questions developed in cooperation with the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations and partner organisations in East Asia. This will allow direct comparison of Australian and international opinion and will draw out international public reactions to the shifts in the balance of economic, political and strategic power in the region and the world.

Ivan Cook Research Associate

14&15 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Yabunaka Mitoji Institute Programs North East Asia featured prominently in the Institute’s events calendar. Japan’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Affairs was one of our distinguished speakers.

Allan Gyngell

16&17 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Global Dr Issues Program Director

2005 United Nations World Summit Begins Daniel Berehulak/Staff/Getty Images

Michael Fullilove with Swedish Foreign Minister Laila Freivalds

February 1 2006

January 6 2005

December 20 2005

August 1 2005 The global issues program identifies The Institute continues to lead a national the points at which world events and trends discussion on the Australian diaspora intersect with Australia’s concerns, and and published Diaspora: The world‑wide subjects these to rigorous analysis. The web of Australians. This report was cited two major themes in the program’s work by Prime Minister John Howard and its are the United States and the United Nations. recommendations were endorsed by a Senate committee and the Opposition The direction of United States grand Leader, Kim Beazley. A forthcoming brief strategy was assessed in the Lowy Paper will examine another important question: Bush is from Mars, Kerry is from Mars how capital punishment is dealt with in too, which argued that a new appreciation Australian foreign policy. of the limits of American power would lead to more moderate international policies in The global issues program contributed President George W. Bush’s second term. regular op-ed pieces and commentary to The role of special envoys in United States Australian and international newspapers foreign policy was also examined in an article and broadcasters, on issues as diverse as for the international journal, Foreign Affairs. the bombings in Bali and London, foreign aid, and the . The program The program published Peter Edwards’s director also participated in international survey of Australia’s most important debates through appearances on CNN alliance relationship, Permanent friends? International and speeches at venues such Historical reflections on the Australian as United Nations Headquarters in New American alliance, and Visiting Fellow York, Ditchley Park and Wilton Park in the Owen Harries continued to publish , and Uppsala University insightful observations on the United in Sweden. States. A future publication will deal with the implications for Australia of strategic As part of its extensive and lively series competition between the United States of events on global issues, the program has and China. run several seminars dealing with concerns such as the Iraq occupation, European On its second theme, the United Nations integration and international law. and global governance, the program It has hosted talks with visiting British published a sustained series of comments ministers, European parliamentarians, on the United Nations reform process which US congressmen, and the heads of culminated in the World Summit in Australia’s diplomatic missions in Europe; September 2005. A paper was published on and speeches by policy-makers such as the United Nations and Asia – an Ambassador Martin Indyk and former underexplored topic that may increase in Downing Street adviser Geoff Mulgan. salience with the likely election of an Asian Secretary-General in 2006. Simon During the period, the program organised Chesterman of New York University three major international conferences: published a Lowy Paper on another a meeting on the UN’s contribution to emerging issue, the role that national Asia‑Pacific security, which was co-hosted intelligence plays in resolving international with the New York-based International peace and security questions. A review of Peace Academy and brought foreign the Australian-led Regional Assistance ministers, officials and commentators from Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) around the world to Sydney; a conference and its implications for international on values and foreign policy, which was state‑building was also published. addressed by James Fallows of The Atlantic Monthly, Charles Krauthammer of the The Iranian nuclear question became Washington Post, and the author and a focus of the Institute’s work over the diplomat Robert Cooper, and a trilateral past with the publication of Iran, the dialogue between German, international community and the nuclear and Australian diplomats and analysts. issue: where to next?. The Institute maintains a watching brief on international efforts to resolve this defining issue.

18&19 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Global

Anthony Bubalo Issues Research Fellow

Thai military at Pattani Danial Berehulak/AFP/Getty Images

October 5 2005

July 9 2005

January 5 2006 August 16 2005

March 29 2005 Among those who observe South East On a different theme, the unprecedented Asia, there is currently a concern that move by Australian football into the Indonesian Muslims are being radicalised Asian Football Confederation in 2005 by external influences. In 2005, a Lowy was expected to have commercial, cultural Paper examined how Islamist thinking and political implications for Australia’s from the Middle East had impacted in engagement with Asia. In an effort to Indonesia. The paper, Joining the caravan?: understand the broader implications, the the Middle East, Islamism and Indonesia Institute held a seminar in October 2005 was a collaboration with Dr Greg Fealy on “Football Diplomacy”. This brought of the Australian National University, one together Australian business, sports of Australia’s leading Indonesia watchers. administrators, economists and foreign It argued that while Islamists from the policy specialists in an effort to understand Middle East had played a critical role in the effects of the engagement and explore shaping the emergence of certain forms of how the opportunities created by regular activism in Indonesia, it would be wrong international sporting meetings might to underestimate the role of local factors, be leveraged by business, government both as a source of radicalism and in and other sectors of the Australian mediating and modifying ideas imported community. The seminar highlighted from the Middle East. the broader relationship between sport and international policy and ideas raised The paper’s relevance was not limited in discussion were distilled and further to an Australian audience. Interest in developed into a policy brief. The the United States saw the publication of Football Federation of Australia and the an abridged version by the Brookings Government have already acted upon Institution as a part of its project on “US one of the brief’s recommendations. Policy Towards the Islamic World”. Strong interest in Indonesia also resulted in a During 2005, the Institute produced decision to publish an Indonesian‑language research on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, translation. The paper’s authors were looking, in particular, at the role Australia invited by the Australian Embassy in might play in strengthening the rule of law Bangkok to brief the Thai National in the Palestinian territories. It published Reconciliation Council, which has been an issues brief, Building a democratic working to promote a peaceful resolution Palestine: An Australian contribution to the conflict in the Muslim-majority areas to legal and institutional development of southern Thailand. As a follow-up, the in the Palestinian territories, in which Institute has begun research into the role it urged the Australian Government to of external influences on Islam in Thailand. provide technical support to the Palestinian reform effort, particularly in the security sector. Some two months after the brief’s publication, the Australian Government announced that an officer would join the international team working on Palestinian security sector reform. The Institute also brought together a small group of government officials, diplomats, academics and commentators in a seminar on Iraq. Entitled “Taking Stock”, the discussion provided an opportunity to assess the direction of events in Iraq and ways in which Australia and other actors might best pursue the reconstruction and stabilisation effort. The discussion was introduced by Professor Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

20&21 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 International Dr Alan Dupont Program Director and Senior Security Fellow for International Security.

March 31 2005

Australian soldiers in Iraq AHMAD ALRUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images

November 29 2005

July 29 2005

November 10 2005

March 3 2005

November 23 2005 The Institute’s international security The Institute also convened a workshop program contributes to the national debate to examine a proposal to reconstitute an about Australia’s defence policy and to Australian merchant marine. This was international debate about the strategic attended by key figures in the navy environment and global security threats. transport, corporate, industry, government Strategic issues in Asia and the Pacific are and union sectors. a special focus of its work. In its strategic It was a busy year for program staff who, assessments and policy development, among other things, participated in a the program takes a holistic approach. forum on AIDS at La Trobe University in Its broad view of international security , addressed the National Advisory incorporates elements of the traditional Group on Environment Business Australia, and the new security agendas. Within the attended the Chief of Army Conference in traditional agenda, a major study of and an Australia-Japan meeting Japanese security policy by the Institute in Melbourne, addressed the Australian was subsequently published in amended Industry Group on Bird Flu and Pandemics form in the influential United States policy and participated in defence workshops journal The National Interest (Spring facilitated by the Kokoda Foundation. 2005) under the title “The Schizophrenic Internationally, the Senior Fellow briefed ”. Within the new agenda, the defence officials in London on East Asian program engages in cutting‑edge policy security developments, made a research on transnational security threats presentation on energy security at a such as the security consequences of United States‑Australia policy forum in climate change. Its study on these Los Angeles organised by the Australian consequences for Asia and the Pacific is Consulate‑General and discussed regional scheduled for publication in 2006. This security trends with officials in Beijing, collaborative project is co-authored by Tokyo and Singapore. Dr Dupont and the former Chief This coming year, a second Sturdee Atmospheric Scientist at the CSIRO, Symposium is planned. Dr Graeme Pearman. The program continued its involvement Four other prospective studies include an with the Australian National University analysis of the forces, pressures and on the “languages of security” project , challenges confronting the international funded by an Australian Research Council system and the implications for Australian Industry linkage grant. This three-year foreign and security policy, by Dr Russell project employs a cross‑disciplinary Trood, a distinguished former academic approach to examine the different and now Liberal Party Senator from languages of security used in the region. ; an innovative project It explores the way security issues are assessing the need for an Australian understood not only by policy elites counter-insurgency policy by Army of the different societies of Asia and Fellow Lieutenant Colonel Mark O’Neill; Australia but by the public. The project collaborative research on energy and will investigate ways in which divergent security in Asia and the Pacific; and a understandings can cause far‑reaching forward‑looking program for the corporate damage to security cooperation. sector and government identifying international developments that might challenge Australia’s future security and economic prosperity. The international security program hosted two major events in 2005. The first was the Sturdee Symposium on Grand Strategy in partnership with the Army’s Land Warfare Studies Centre in Canberra. This reflected on the absence of an Australian grand strategy, examined the seminal changes in Australia’s security environment and considered possible policy responses. It brought together leading Australian thinkers and practitioners in defence and foreign policy, including Defence Minister Robert Hill and the Chief of the Defence Force, General Peter Cosgrove.

22&23 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 The International

Mark Thirlwell Economy Program Director

The Hon. Peter Costello MP, Australian Treasurer

China freed the yuan from an 11 year old peg to the US dollar on July 21 2005. AFP/AFP/Getty Images September 13 2005

October 17 2005

April 25 2005

November 7 2005

March 18 2005 The Institute’s international economy The process of demographic change is program identifies and interprets another major force transforming the trends that contribute to changes in the international economic environment. international economic environment that Professorial Fellow Warwick McKibbin affect Australia. It looks beyond short-term produced a series of working papers fluctuations of the international business examining the global macroeconomic cycle and focuses on the underlying forces impact of demographic change. at work. One of the most significant trends He presented this work at several is the re-emergence of China and India as events, including a G‑20 workshop and major economic powers. a conference of the Asian Economic Panel which featured the noted China’s rapid growth has seen it become international economist and Director of Australia’s second largest trading partner, the Earth Institute, Professor Jeffrey Sachs. and its rising economic and political weight is exerting an increasingly Trade and trade policy were important powerful influence on Australia’s external themes in 2005. In January, the environment. During 2005, a series of Australia‑United States Free Trade papers, seminars, and presentations Agreement came into force and confirmed analysed some likely consequences. a pivotal shift in Australia’s trade strategy. An Institute Working Paper examined the Much of the year was dominated by the environmental consequences of China’s tortuous build‑up to December’s Hong rising energy use, two papers in the Kong WTO ministerial meeting and the Institute’s Perspectives series looked at likely fate of the Doha Round of China’s influence on the world economy, multilateral trade negotiations. The as did presentations at conferences Institute analysed many of these organised in conjunction with the developments in the Lowy Paper The new Australia-Korea Foundation and with the terms of trade, by Mark Thirlwell. This Woodrow Wilson Center and the Australia paper describes how the international & New Zealand School of Government. trading environment facing Australia has changed and examines policy challenges India remains a key focus for the Institute. that have resulted. In 2004, the Institute released a Lowy paper on India’s economic prospects, The need to tackle the problem of climate India: The next economic giant, and change is now a pressing challenge for in 2005 hosted visits from the Indian policy‑makers worldwide and the coming Commerce and Industry Minister and a into force of the Kyoto Protocol, in February high level delegation from the Confederation 2005, was a major event. The Institute of Indian Industries. The Institute continued launched a brief on the subject called to provide commentary and analysis of “Sensible Climate Policy”, which argued India’s economic transformation and a that Kyoto was badly constructed and research trip to the country included likely to achieve very little in the quest meetings with senior policy‑makers and to address the problem of climate change. representatives of leading economic think This brief has been the subject of a series tanks. This year will see the publication of high level presentations and seminars of a new paper on China, India and the given both in Australia and internationally world economy. by Professor Warwick McKibbin, one of the world’s leading authorities on climate The changing geographic distribution of change policy. economic weight in the world economy has significant implications for the effectiveness With Australia’s economic future of the international economic architecture. increasingly tied to developments in East In a series of articles and op‑eds, including Asia – the region now accounts for roughly several pieces by Visiting Fellow Dr Stephen half of all Australian merchandise trade – Grenville, the Institute has pressed the the program kept a close eye on regional case for reform, advocating the G‑20 as economic trends. The Institute hosted the the peak body for managing globalisation. inaugural Australian meeting of the With Australia due to host the G‑20 Asian Economic Panel, bringing together meeting in November 2006, a further leading international economists and paper on this issue will be released soon. policy‑makers to discuss economic issues of major importance to Asia. It also hosted a conference with the Australian National University’s Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis and the European Central Bank on globalisation and regionalism and provided a venue for a conference organised by the Australian Treasury on Macroeconomic Policy and Structural Change in East Asia at which Stephen Grenville spoke.

24&25 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 The Asia

Dr Malcolm Cook Pacific Program Director

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA East Asia Summit (ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/Getty Images)

May 23 2005

November 15 2005

October 7 2005

April 19 2005 Almost all the work at the Institute In 2006, the program will publish papers involves relations within the Asia Pacific, on topics including: the growing warmth the region where Australia’s economic, and diversity of China-South East Asia political and security interests come relations; the prospects for the Mindanao together most directly. The Asia-Pacific peace process; and the Papua problem and program is roughly divided into three Australia-Indonesia relations. Collaborative sub-regions – North East Asia, South East follow-up work on the APEC Policy Brief Asia and the South Pacific – as Australian and on Australia‑Indonesia relations is interaction and interests in these three also planned. are significantly different. Economically, North East Asia is the In the South Pacific, Australia is the main most important region for Australia. foreign power with both a deep current It provides Australia’s three largest export engagement and a colonial history. This markets and is the region where great is the area of the world where Australia power tensions hold the greatest risk of carries the most weight and responsibility entangling Australia. While Australia has and where its foreign policy makes little ability to affect changes in North East a substantial difference. Australia-Papua Asia, it remains highly sensitive to them. New Guinea relations is the most important In early 2005, the Institute published a and delicate issue in this sub-region and the Lowy Paper entitled Balancing act: main focus of the Australian aid program. Taiwan’s cross-strait challenge looking In 2005, a number of public events, visits, at domestic social change in Taiwan and research publications focused on this and its impact on relations with China. bilateral relationship and on Australia’s It also published a Perspective on Japan’s “great power” position in the South Pacific. changing foreign policy. In late 2005, a Lowy Paper titled The region featured prominently in Re-imagining Papua New Guinea called the Institute’s event calendar with a for longer-term, broader engagement with conference on Australian and Korean Papua New Guinea. This research was responses to the rise of the Chinese supported by an earlier AusAID‑sponsored economy. This conference was sponsored international conference which looked at by the Australia-Korea Foundation and commercial and governance successes in Macquarie Bank. The Deputy Foreign Papua New Guinea. At a roundtable with Minister of Japan, Yabunaka Mitoji, the Australian Pacific Heads of Mission also addressed the Institute as part of the a workshop was held about Australia’s Distinguished Speaker Series. regional role. In 2006, the Institute will In 2006, the Institute published a brief host a conference with AusAID on the examining changes to the Japanese Government’s Pacific 2020 plan and a economy, political system and foreign workshop on effective public diplomacy. policy that challenge assumptions about South East Asia is the region of greatest Japan and its future. The Institute is also security concern for Australia and plays planning events relating to the proposed a central role in Australia’s interests in a China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. deeper Asian integration. In this respect, bilateral relations with Indonesia are most important and are a major focus of Australian foreign policy. Growing concern about Islamist terrorism, and the second set of bombings in Bali in 2005, made engagement with South East Asia and Indonesia even more important. The Institute held several events and workshops on Australia-Indonesia relations and contributed heavily to the media’s coverage of the Boxing Day tsunami. As part of the Distinguished Speakers Series, Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo spoke on the future of East Asia. In late 2005, the Institute published a Policy Brief entitled How to save APEC, focusing on Australia’s hosting of APEC in 2007 and on how to ensure that this cooperative organisation and the region it represents remains relevant. The Institute runs the annual APEC young leaders think tank in collaboration with the Australian Government.

26&27 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Mr Frank Lowy AC Mr Robert Ferguson Professor Ross Garnaut AO

Ambassador Martin Indyk Mr Peter Lowy Mr

Mr Ian Macfarlane AC Professor Robert O’Neill AO Mr Mark Ryan

Professor Judith Sloan Mr Michael Thawley

International Advisory Council provides advice and contributes to setting the research priorities of the Institute. The council comprises: Dr Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, President of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Pakistan; Sir Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies at King’s College, London; Dr Rita Hauser, Chair of the Hauser Foundation, New York; Professor Francois Heisbourg, Chairman of the Foundation for Strategic Research, Paris; The Professor Robert Joss, Dean of Stanford Graduate School of Business, California; Professor Lord (Robert) May OM AC Kt Directors PRS, Past President of the Royal Society, London; Mr Rupert Murdoch AC, Chairman and Chief Executive of News Corporation, New York; Mr Wiryono Sastrohandoyo, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta; Mr James Wolfensohn AO, Former President of the World Bank, Washington DC. Mr Frank Lowy AC Mr Robert Ferguson Professor Ross Garnaut AO Frank Lowy is executive chairman Robert Ferguson is one of Ross Garnaut AO is Professor and co-founder of the Westfield Australia’s most respected business of Economics, Research School Group, a global shopping centre leaders. He was Managing Director of Pacific and Asian Studies, company. He is a director of of Bankers Trust Australia and is Australian National University Daily Mail and General Trust plc Deputy Chair of (ANU). He is a Fellow of the (UK) and chairman of the Lowy and Director Sydney Writers’ Academy of Social Sciences of Institute for International Policy Festival. Australia and Honorary Professor and the Football Federation of Chinese Academy of Social Australia Limited. Mr Peter Lowy Sciences. From 1985 to 1988 Peter Lowy is Group Managing he was Australian Ambassador Ambassador Martin Indyk Director of the . to China. He is the author of Martin S. Indyk is the director of Prior to joining Westfield numerous books, monographs and the Saban Center for Middle East in 1983, he worked in investment articles on international economics, Policy at The Brookings Institution banking in the US and UK. He has public finance and international in Washington DC, and a former resided in the US since 1990. He development, particularly in US ambassador to . Before serves on the Executive Committee relation to East Asia and the entering government, he was the of the Board of Governors for the Southwest Pacific. founding executive director of the National Association of Real Estate Washington Institute for Near Investment Trusts and is on the Mr Steven Lowy East Policy, and adjunct professor, Board of Directors of The Association Steven Lowy is Group Managing Johns Hopkins University School of Foreign Investors in Real Estate. Director of the Westfield Group. of Advanced International Studies. Prior to joining Westfield he Ambassador Indyk holds a PhD from Professor Robert O’Neill AO worked in investment banking in the Australian National University. Robert O’Neill retired as Chichele the US. Steven is a director of the Professor of the History of War Victor Chang Cardiac Research Mr Ian Macfarlane AC and as a Fellow of All Souls Institute; a member of the Prime Ian Macfarlane has been Governor College, University of Oxford Minister’s Business-Government of the Reserve Bank of Australia in September 2001. He was also Advisory Group on National since 1996. His background is as Chairman of the Council of the Security; a member of The an economist and he is a Fellow of International Institute for Strategic Australian Graduate School of the Academy of the Social Sciences Studies, London, 1996-2001, Management (AGSM) Advisory in Australia. Prior to joining Chairman of Trustees of the Council; a Director of the Lowy the Bank in 1979, he worked Imperial War Museum 1998-2001, Medical Institute Limited; and at , Oxford a director of the International a trustee of the Art Gallery of University and the OECD in Paris. Peace Academy, New York, . 1990‑2001, Chairman of the Professor Judith Sloan Council of the Australian Strategic Mr Mark Ryan Judith Sloan is an economist Policy Institute in Canberra, Mark Ryan has extensive with a special interest in the 1999‑2005, and Deputy Chair of experience in government, media labour market. She is currently the Council of the Graduate School and the corporate sector. Between Commissioner of the Productivity of Government at the University 1985 and 1994 he held a number Commission and Director of of Sydney, 2002‑2005. Prior to his of positions with State and Federal Santos Ltd. She has held academic appointment to Oxford in 1987, Government Ministers, including appointments at the University of Professor O’Neill was Director as Senior Political Adviser to Melbourne and Flinders University. of the International Institute for the Australian Prime Minister. She was appointed Professor of Strategic Studies (IISS) in London. Since then he has been a director Labour Studies in 1989. She has He was Head of the Strategic and of a Sydney-based investment written widely in books, journals Defence Studies Centre of the bank and is now Director of and newspapers. Her previous Australian National University Corporate Affairs for the Westfield appointments include Deputy (ANU), 1971-1982. Group. He is a director of the Chair of the Australian Shopping Centre Council of Broadcasting Corporation, Mr Michael Thawley Australia and the Australian Director of Mayne Group Ltd Michael Thawley is Senior Vice Football League Foundation. and Director of the South President of Capital Strategy Australian Ports Corporation. Research Inc, a member of the Capital Group companies. Until May 2005 he served as Australia’s ambassador to the United States. Before that, he was international adviser to the Prime Minister, Mr John Howard, and served in a variety of positions in the Australian Government in Canberra and overseas.

28&29 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Allan Gyngell Martine Letts Anthony Bubalo

Ivan Cook Dr Malcolm Cook Dr Alan Dupont

Dr Michael Fullilove Lisa Middlebrook Mark Thirlwell

Lowy Institute administrative staff Nicky Baker Office Manager Institute Joanne Bottcher Information Manager Orietta Melfi Staff Media & Events Manager Justine Lane Executive Assistant Allan Gyngell Martine Letts Anthony Bubalo Allan Gyngell, Executive Director, Martine Letts, Deputy Director, Anthony Bubalo, Research Fellow has an extensive background in joined the Institute following four for Global Issues, Anthony graduated international policy‑making in years as the Secretary General (CEO) from the University of New South Australia. He joined the then of the Australian Red Cross and a Wales with a Bachelor of Arts Department of External Affairs in 17-year career with the Department of Honours, majoring in Political 1969 and had postings to Rangoon, Foreign Affairs and Trade. She served Science. He joined the Department Singapore and Washington. He as Australian Ambassador to Argentina, of Foreign Affairs and Trade in 1991. also held positions at the Office Uruguay and Paraguay, Deputy Head He undertook long-term Arabic of National Assessments and the of Mission to the International Atomic language training in Egypt, and has Department of the Prime Minister Energy Agency (IAEA) and was an served in Australia’s embassies in and Cabinet. From 1993 to 1996, adviser to Foreign Minister Evans Saudi Arabia and in Israel. More he was foreign policy adviser to from 1992 to 1994. Throughout her recently he was a Director on the Prime Minister Paul Keating. career she specialised in arms control Iraq Task Force and was the He has worked as a consultant to and disarmament. She serves on the Department’s senior speechwriter. a number of Australian companies. Executive Committee of the Council He also served as Middle East Analyst In 2003, Cambridge University Press on Latin America Relations (COALAR) in the Office of National Assessments published Making Australian Foreign and the National Consultative from 1996 to 1998. Policy, a book he co-authored with Committee on International Security Michael Wesley. He is a member of Issues (NCCISI). She is a member of Dr Alan Dupont the Australian Government’s Foreign the ANU Council and of the inaugural Alan Dupont, Senior Fellow, was Affairs Council, and was educated Board of Nonprofit Australia. She was formerly Senior Fellow and Director in history and political science educated in Political Science and German of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at Melbourne University. at the Australian National University. at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. Ivan Cook Dr Malcolm Cook He is a graduate of the Royal Military Ivan Cook, Research Associate, Malcolm Cook, Program Director College Duntroon and has a PhD joined the Institute in July 2004. Ivan Asia-Pacific Program, completed a in International Relations from the manages and reports on the annual PhD in international relations from Australian National University. Lowy Institute Poll and New Voices the Australian National University, Alan has over 25 years’ experience Conference along with various other and holds an MA in international in government with the Departments research projects and events. He has relations from the International of Defence and Foreign Affairs and a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) from University of Japan and an honours Trade, and served in the Australian the Australian National University degree from McGill University in embassies in Seoul and Jakarta. and a Master of International Studies Canada. Before moving to Australia He has also worked as a freelance from the . in 2000, Malcolm lived and worked in journalist in South America and as the Philippines, South Korea and Japan a consultant to government and the Dr Michael Fullilove and spent much time in Singapore and corporate sector. Dr Dupont is a Michael Fullilove, Program Director Malaysia. Before joining the Institute member of the Australian National for Global Issues, has worked as a in November 2003, Malcolm ran his Committee of the Council for Security lawyer, a volunteer in the United own consulting practice on South East Cooperation in the Asia Pacific Nations Transitional Administration Asian political and economic policy (CSCAP), a member of the Council in , and as an adviser to reform and risk analysis. of the Australian Strategic Policy Prime Minister Paul Keating. Michael Institute and a member of the Foreign graduated in international relations Lisa Middlebrook Affairs Council. He was appointed to and law from the universities of Lisa Middlebrook, Director for the Management Board of the Land Sydney and New South Wales, Business Development & Community Warfare Studies Centre by the Chief with dual university medals. He also Partnerships, spent five years with the of the Australian Army in July 2005. studied as a Rhodes Scholar at the Democratic Leadership Council University of Oxford, where he took (DLC) and Progressive Policy Institute Mark Thirlwell a master’s degree in international (PPI) in Washington DC where she Mark Thirlwell, Program Director relations and wrote his doctorate was responsible for corporate and International Economy, is a graduate on Franklin D. Roosevelt’s foreign foundation fundraising and external of Cambridge University and has an policy. His dissertation was awarded relations. Prior to this, she served at MPhil degree in economics from the annual prize for the best the Australian Embassy in Washington Oxford. Mark began his career as an international history thesis in Britain. working on US Congressional economist in the Bank of England’s His first book, Men and Women relations and trade issues. Lisa international division, where he of Australia! Our Greatest Modern is a graduate of the University of focused on emerging market issues. Speeches, was published by Vintage California, Los Angeles (Political He also spent some time in the Bank’s in November 2005. Science and International Relations). UK structural economic analysis division. He subsequently joined JP Morgan, where he was a vice president in the economic research department with responsibility for Central and Eastern Europe. Before joining The Lowy Institute, Mark was senior economist at the Australian Export Finance and Insurance Corporation from 1999 to 2003, where he worked on country risk issues, with a particular emphasis on East Asia.

30&31 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 Dr Stephen Grenville AO Owen Harries Paul Kelly Professor Warwick McKibbin

Lt Col Mark O’Neill Dr Milton Osborne Ben Scott Dr Russell Trood Professor Hugh White

Visiting Fellows Dr Stephen Grenville AO Owen Harries Peter Hartcher Paul Kelly Stephen Grenville works as Owen Harries is a Senior Fellow Peter Hartcher is an award-winning Paul Kelly is Editor-at-Large a consultant on financial sector at the Centre for Independent journalist and author. After three of The Australian. He was issues in East Asia. He is a Studies, and member of the years in Washington DC as the previously Editor-in-Chief of Director of AMP Capital Global Advisory Council of correspondent for the Australian The Australian (1991-1996). Investors Limited and SFE The American Interest magazine. Financial Review, he returned to He writes on Australian and Corporation Limited, an Adjunct Australia at the end of 2003 and international issues and is a Professor at the Australian National In the late he was head of joined the Lowy Institute as a regular commentator on . University and a member of the policy planning in the Australian visiting fellow. In 2004 he became Foreign Affairs Council. Between Department of Foreign Affairs, political and international editor Paul is the author of six 1982 and 2001 he worked at and senior adviser, successively, for The Sydney Morning Herald. successful books. The Unmaking the Reserve Bank of Australia, to the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Gough (1976), The Hawke for the last five years as Deputy () and the Prime He was awarded the Gold Walkley Ascendancy (1984), The End Governor and Board member. Minister (). Award, for his investigative series of Certainty (1992), November Before that, he was with the In 1978-79 he was Chairman on Australia’s secret security 1975 published in 1995 and a Organisation for Economic of the Committee on Australia’s treaty with Indonesia. He won collection of articles Paradise Cooperation and Development in Relations with the Third World. the Citibank award for business Divided (2000). During 1982-83 he was Australian reporting for his coverage of the Paris, the International Monetary He has written widely on Fund in Jakarta, the Australian Ambassador to UNESCO. Asian economic crisis. He has In 1983-85 he was a fellow testified as an expert witness to international affairs in America, National University and the Europe and Asia. A Fellow of the Department of Foreign Affairs. at Federal Parliamentary inquiries in Washington DC. into Australia’s relations in the Academy of Social Sciences in Professor Warwick McKibbin Asia Pacific. Australia, he is a participant in the Australia‑America Leadership Warwick McKibbin is a Professor Lieutenant Colonel Mark O’Neill of International Economics and Mark O’Neill is the Army His book, The Ministry, the first Dialogue. In 2002 he was a Visiting Convenor of the Economics Fellow at the Lowy Institute for detailed study in English of Japan’s Fellow at the Kennedy School Division in the Research School International Policy, seconded Ministry of Finance, is a window of Government and a visiting of Pacific and Asian Studies at the from the Australian Army. onto Japan’s disastrous bubble lecturer at the Weatherhead Australian National University. economy. In 2005 he published Center for International Affairs Mark graduated from the Royal another book, Bubble Man: at Harvard University. He is also a non-resident Senior Military College, Duntroon, in Fellow at the Brookings Institution Allan Greenspan and the Missing 1988 and from the Australian Seven Trillion Dollars. Ben Scott in Washington DC, and President Command and Staff College in Ben Scott was seconded to of McKibbin Software Group. 2002. He has served in a variety Dr Milton Osborne the Lowy Institute from the He is a member of the Board of of postings in Australia and Milton Osborne, is a graduate of Department of Foreign Affairs the Reserve Bank of Australia. overseas which have included Sydney and Cornell Universities, and Trade in 2005. He joined Professor McKibbin has worked command, staff and instructional and has held academic positions DFAT in 1997 after completing at the Reserve Bank of Australia, appointments. During 1993 he in Australia, the United Kingdom, his Articles of Clerkship in a the Japanese Ministry of Finance, served in Somalia on Operation the United States and Singapore. Melbourne law firm and has the United States Congressional Solace, Australia’s contribution He was posted to the Australian worked primarily on the Middle Budget Office and the World to Operation Restore Hope. Embassy in Phnom Penh in 1959. East and the South Pacific. He In 1999 Mark served as a served as part of the Bougainville Bank. He has been a consultant He is the author of nine books for many international agencies Technical Adviser to the United peace monitoring team in 1998 Nations Development Program’s and many articles on Asian and was posted to Tel Aviv from and governments on issues subjects including: South East of macroeconomic policy, Accelerated De-mining Program 1999 to 2003. His next posting is in Mozambique. He completed Asia: An Introductory History, to Ramallah where he will head the international trade and finance, now in its ninth edition; River and greenhouse policy issues. undergraduate studies at the Australian Representative Office. University of Adelaide, and Road to China: The Search for He received his B.Com and has post-graduate qualifications the Source of the Mekong (a New Ben has a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) University Medal from the from Deakin University and York Times “notable book”); and Bachelor of Laws (Honours) University of NSW, and his the University of Canberra. and The Mekong: Turbulent Past, degrees from the University AM and his PhD from Harvard Uncertain Future. Since 1993 he of Melbourne and a Graduate University. He is a Fellow of the Professor Hugh White has been an independent writer Diploma in Foreign Affairs and Australian Academy of Social Hugh White is a Professor and consultant on Asian issues Trade from Monash University. Sciences and a founding member of Strategic Studies at the and is an adjunct professor of of the Harvard University Asian Australian National University. Asian studies at the Australian Economic Panel. He was awarded He writes regularly on security National University. the in 2003 and international issues for The “For Service to Australian Age and The Sydney Morning Society through Economic Herald. From 2001 to 2004 Policy and Tertiary Education”. Professor White was the first Director of the Australian Dr Russell Trood Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). Prior to his election to the Before that he had served as an Australian Senate, Dr Trood was intelligence analyst with the Associate Professor of International Office of National Assessments, Relations at Griffith University. as a journalist with The Sydney He was trained in law (LLB) Morning Herald, as a senior at the University of Sydney and adviser on the staffs of Defence has a Masters’ degree (M.Sc. Minister Kim Beazley and Prime Econ) in strategic studies from Minister , and as a the University of New South Wales senior official in the Department and a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) of Defence, where from 1995 in international relations from to 2000 he was Deputy Secretary Dalhousie University, Canada. for Strategy and Intelligence. He is a former Director of In the 1970s he studied the Centre for the Study of philosophy at Melbourne Australia-Asia relations at Griffith and Oxford Universities. University and has been a member of the Foreign Affairs Council, the Board of the Australia‑Indonesia Institute and the Australian Committee of Pacific Economic Cooperation. He is the author of numerous articles and books on security and foreign policy. 32&33 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 The Lowy Institute for International Policy gratefully acknowledges the following organisations for their contributions, cooperation and support:

• ABN Amro • Art Gallery of NSW • Asian Football Confederation • Asialink • AusAID • Australia-India Business Council • Australia-Korea Foundation • AXISS Australia • CARE Australia • Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs • Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington) • Confederation of Indian Industry • Chicago Council on Foreign Relations • Department of Defence – Land Warfare Studies Centre • Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade • European Central Bank • Football Federation of Australia • International Crisis Group • International Monetary Fund • International Peace Academy • Korea Australia Foundation • Macquarie Bank • Morgan Stanley • Reserve Bank of Australia • The Australian Army • The Australian National University • The Australian Treasury • The Brookings Institution • The Ditchley Foundation • The Japan Centre for International Exchange • The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan • The University of New South Wales • The University of Sydney • UMR Research Pty Ltd • United States Consulate General, Sydney • Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars • World Sports Group

The Lowy Institute is a public Legal and company For information about company limited by guarantee secretarial services corporate membership of and operated exclusively for provided by Mr Robin Speed, the Lowy Institute please charitable purposes. All donations Speed & Stracey, Sydney. contact Lisa Middlebrook at to it are tax deductible in Australia. [email protected] walterwakefield.com.au by produced and Designed Printedby Southern Colour on FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) accreditedstock; Spicers Paper, Lives. 9 The building that houses the Lowy Institute was built for the New South Wales Club in 1886. Located in Bligh Street in Sydney’s central business district, it is classified by the National Trust and listed for permanent conservation under the Heritage Act. This classic sandstone building was designed by William Wardell, one of the most distinguished architects of his time.

31 Bligh Street

34&35 The Lowy Institute Review March 2006 31 Bligh Street Sydney NSW 2000 Tel: +61 2 8238 9000 Fax: +61 2 8238 9005 Web: www.lowyinstitute.org