9/22/2009 News: Australian Stock, Share & Com… Welcome to Trading Room. Skip directly to: Search Box, Section Navigation, Content, Text Version. NEWS | MYCAREER | DOMAIN | DRIVE | FINA NCE | MOBILE | RSVP | TRA VEL | WEATHER member centre | login Trading Room home page Economists air extreme views at stimulus inquiry Market watch top headlines Australian reports Aust markets: ASX expected to open lower Aust dollar report: $A opens flat after offshore session Aust credit close: Bonds close weaker World reports World commodities: Oil, gold and silver all down World markets: US and European stocks fall Stocks to watch PMV, TLS, RIO, QAN, BLD, AIO, MAP, MMX, PPX, GNS, CANBERRA, Sept 21 AAP September 21 2009, 6:06PM Senators heard both sides of the economic divide at an inquiry on Monday to determine whether the federal government's economic stimulus has worked and whether it should continue. Quizzing several academic economists, the inquiry heard that the stimulus was a waste of money, that the recession was a normal part of the business cycle and should have been left for the free market to resolve. It was also argued that the human tragedy would have been far worse without the billions of dollars stimulus, regardless of whether it results in higher interest rates and higher taxes. Indeed, one economist believed more money should be spent on lifting the unemployment benefit to stimulate the economy further. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told CNN from New York where he is attending the United Nations General Assembly, before heading to G20 Leaders Meeting Pittsburgh later this week, that calls for an immediate withdrawal of stimulus from the global economy were "misplaced". tradingroom.com.au/…/view_breaking… 1/4 9/22/2009 News: Australian Stock, Share & Com… The Australian Greens had called for the inquiry to take a sounding on the impact of the stimulus measures, that continue to pump money into the economy through infrastructure spending. Greens leader Bob Brown said the Senate economics references committee had made a "mistake" by not having Treasury secretary Ken Henry and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens front the committee until next week in Sydney. "We should be hearing them first and then getting the economists to comment on them afterwards," he told reporters in Canberra. Senator Brown was also "surprised" by one economist's observation that the market should have been left to work through the recession, which was just part of the normal business cycle. "It's the failure of the market that has led to the necessity for a stimulus package," Senator Brown said. Executive director of the independent think tank, the Australia Institute, Dr Richard Denniss, told the hearing the government should be commended for its stimulus initiatives, and that while it was unfortunate that some money might have been mis-spent, it was "probably unavoidable". He argued there was a case for "more stimulus, not less" that should be aimed at raising unemployment benefit that would be quickly spent. Dr Andrew Leigh of the Australian National University believes the stimulus should continue given the great deal of uncertainty over the unemployment outlook, describing fiscal policy as an "ocean liner which takes a lot of time to turn". Professor Tony Makin of the Griffith University said the stimulus may have helped the retail sector, but interest rates will rise which will hit private investment and be a negative for growth. A rising Australian dollar because of rising interest rates will also hurt jobs in the manufacturing sector. Two economists from the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) believed the stimulus had been a waste of money. Professor Sinclair Davidson believed the reason that the Australian economy had fared better than others was more to do with economic reforms undertaken over the past 25 years. Professor Steven Kates said interest rates should have been lowered further and taxes cut rather than spending "an unbelievable amount of money". He calculated that the government had spent $1.5 million of taxpayers money saving each job. By Colin Brinsden, Economics Correspondent Help | Privacy | Contact Us | Conditions | Member Agreement Copyright © 2009. Fairfax Digital September 22, 2009 9:21 AM AEST Portfolio / Watchlist Start a new portfolio / view your existing portfolio Track all your assets and manage your investments easily. tradingroom.com.au/…/view_breaking… 2/4 9/22/2009 PM - Economic stimulus package und… PM with Mark Colvin Monday to Friday from 6:10pm on ABC Local Radio and 5:10pm on Radio National. Economic stimulus package under senate scrutiny Danny Morgan reported this story on Monday, September 21, 2009 18:18:00 MARK COLVIN: Kevin Rudd's trip to the United States also includes discussions with world leaders on the next phase of the global economic crisis. At the same time, in Canberra, some of Australia's leading economists are dissecting his $42 billion stimulus package. They're appearing at a Senate inquiry set up to evaluate the Government's strategy and advise on whether it should continue. The Government hopes that the inquiry will vindicate its response to last year's collapse in world financial markets. The Opposition is looking for signs that the package is too big and needs to be wound back ahead of time. Danny Morgan reports. DANNY MORGAN: In an interview on cable news giant CNN in New York overnight Kevin Rudd was invited to explain what the world could learn from his Government's handling of Australia's miracle economy. He was initially bashful. KEVIN RUDD: I'm never in the business of preaching to anybody. DANNY MORGAN: But the Prime Minister soon warmed up, and pointed out that the key to Australia's success has been early intervention with an economic stimulus package. KEVIN RUDD: As a result of that, and our heavy emphasis also on infrastructure investment through that stimulus, we have managed to be the only economy across the OECD in the last 12 months to have generated positive growth. Of the major advanced economies the only one to stay out of recession so far. The second lowest unemployment the lowest debt the lowest deficit. DANNY MORGAN: Back in Canberra, RMIT economics professor Steven Kates, was challenging that view in front of Senate's economics committee. The committee is examining whether the Government should wind back its $42 billion dollar stimulus package in light of economic data showing Australia's economy is faring much better than anticipated. Professor Kates says the Government got it wrong from the start. abc.net.au/pm/…/s2692340.htm 1/3 9/22/2009 PM - Economic stimulus package und… STEVEN KATES: You should not have this blanket expenditure as a stimulus, four per cent of GDP which is an unbelievable amount of money. That will not create growth and in fact wastes resources so comprehensively in ways that will they are destroying our savings. They are going to push up interest rates, they are going to push up taxation in future and may yet push up our inflation rate. DANNY MORGAN: Professor Kates concedes the package has saved some jobs, but has questioned the cost. STEVEN KATES: I think in the short term, it, it.... the unemployment rate might have gone to 6.1 instead of 5.8 had there not been a stimulus. I think it has saved jobs, but I think that the cost of saving those jobs has been so disproportionate to any of the good that it will do that I think it is a tremendous policy mistake to have done this. DANNY MORGAN: Australian National University economics professor Andrew Leigh takes a different view. He argues that a large amount of extra Government spending was needed to prevent the long-term problems caused by an increase in unemployment. ANDREW LEIGH: I think it's important to bear in mind how slowly economies tend to recover from recession. The unemployment rate of the late 80s wasn't again achieved until the late 1990s and that scarring cost of unemployment is pretty substantial. I left school in 1990 just as the economy was hitting the skids and that was a terrible time for young kids to leave school so I think it is important where government can, to try and smooth the economic cycle. DANNY MORGAN: Dr Leigh says there is evidence the stimulus package may have been too big, but believes that's not such a bad thing. ANDREW LEIGH: I think that's the side of error that I would prefer to be on and you can... what monetary policy is for is this kind of short term fine tuning. It's not clear to me we would want to massively scale back the fiscal stimulus. DANNY MORGAN: Instead, he says there are compelling reasons for the Government to allow the stimulus package to run its course. ANDREW LEIGH: I think when government's promise to do things it's a bad look to then break their promises. But the second is this question of fine tuning, we are sufficiently uncertain as to what the path out of the downturn will be that I think it makes sense just to let fiscal policy roll and let monetary policy which takes affect much faster do the fine tuning. DANNY MORGAN: Back in New York, Kevin Rudd is urging world leaders not to wind back their stimulus packages prematurely. He says the focus should be on making sure stimulus is withdrawn in a coordinated fashion. abc.net.au/pm/…/s2692340.htm 2/3 9/22/2009 PM - Economic stimulus package und… And that leaders work to make sure they never face such dire economic conditions in the future.