Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
1 Full title: A participatory community case study of periurban coastal flood
2 vulnerability in southern Ecuador
3
4 Short title: Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
5
6 Erica Tauzer1*, Mercy J. Borbor Cordoba2, Jhoyzett Mendoza3, Telmo De La Cuadra3,
7 Jorge Cunalata4, and Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra1,5*
8
9 1Institute for Global Health & Translational Science. SUNY Upstate Medical University.
10 Syracuse, NY, USA.
11 2Facultad de Ingeniería Marítima y Ciencias del Mar, Escuela Superior Politecnica del
12 Litoral (ESPOL). Guayaquil, Guayas Province, Ecuador.
13 3National Service for Risk Management and Emergencies. Guayaquil, Guayas Province,
14 Ecuador.
15 4Universidad Tecnica de Machala. Machala, El Oro Province, Ecuador.
16 5Department of Medicine, SUNY Upstate Medical University. Syracuse, NY, USA.
17
18 *Co-corresponding authors:
19 Erica Tauzer; Email: [email protected]
20 Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra; Email: [email protected];
1 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
21 Abstract
22 Background: Populations in coastal cities are exposed to increasing risk of flooding,
23 resulting in rising damages to health and assets. Local adaptation measures, such as early
24 warning systems for floods (EWSFs), are urgently needed to reduce the risk and impact
25 of flood events. The aim of this study was to assess community perceptions and self-
26 reported actions in response to flooding in a tropical coastal city to inform flood risk
27 reduction policies and programs.
28 Methods: This qualitative case study was conducted in flood-prone areas in Machala,
29 Ecuador, a coastal city exposed to seasonal floods and extreme floods during El Niño
30 events. Adult community members from three periurban sites were invited to participate.
31 Focus groups discussions (11 focus groups in total) were held with community members
32 (n=65 people) from September to November 2014 to assess perceptions of flood
33 exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and current alert systems. Focus groups
34 discussions were audio recorded, transcribed, and coded by topic; participatory maps
35 were field validated, georeferenced, and digitized using GIS software.
36 Results: Community members identified the presence of annual flooding during the rainy
37 season, as well as greater than normal flood events (depths ranging from 0.5 to 3 meters),
38 which recurred every 3-4 years in some communities. The deepest floods occurred during
39 the 1982 and 1997/1998 El Niño events. Community members perceived that exposure to
40 flooding depended on the rainfall coinciding with high ocean tides, and geographic
41 proximity to blocked drainage areas, canals, and low local elevation. Participants reported
42 that children were the most sensitive group due to increased susceptibility to skin
43 infections and mosquito borne diseases (i.e., dengue fever). Other sensitive groups
2 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
44 included the elderly, physically handicapped people, low-income families, and recent
45 migrants. They identified persistent social-ecological vulnerabilities that increased flood
46 risk and exposure in the urban periphery, such as inadequate access to garbage collection,
47 homes settled in precarious low-lying geographies, economic barriers, lack of political
48 access, and lack of social mobilization. In addition, communities expressed a lack of
49 social capital (e.g. political voice), despite the existence of formalized community
50 councils. Key neighborhood resources with respect to flooding included green areas,
51 schools, nurseries, fire stations, health clinics, police stations, a retention wall (berm), and
52 an emergency meeting place. Challenges for adaptive capacity existed primarily in
53 actions related to the preparation and recovery stages of flooding. Despite the presence of
54 an official flood warning system, community member relied on informal communication
55 channels via social media.
56 Conclusions: The flood vulnerability assessment framework and participatory research
57 process utilized here can potentially inform studies in other flood-prone regions to guide
58 the development of EWSFs and other climate change adaptation policies and actions.
59
60 Author summary
61 Flooding is a major concern in coastal cities, causing damages to people’s health and
62 property. Many countries have identified the need for early warning systems for floods
63 (EWSFs) and other actions to reduce the impact of flooding. However, it has been
64 challenging to implement these systems without an understanding of the local social-
65 ecological context, including people’s perceptions and experience with flooding. In this
66 case study, we explored community perceptions of flooding in high-risk urban
3 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
67 neighborhoods in southern Ecuador. Homes were at greatest risk of flooding if they were
68 located near clogged drainage canals, low-lying properties, and flood-prone canals.
69 Children were most affected by flooding, due to the risk of infectious diseases.
70 Communities had difficulty preventing floods and recovering from floods due to factors
71 such as lack of leadership, lack of social mobilization, limited household finances, and
72 lack of coordination with local government authorities. Despite an official EWSF,
73 community members reported using social media and other informal communication
74 channels to receive local flood alerts. Based on these findings, we identify key
75 considerations to improve EWSFs.
76 Keywords: flooding, vulnerability, climate, adaptation, early warning systems, Ecuador
77
4 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
78 Introduction
79 Damages due to flooding are increasing in urban areas [1,2] due to increased
80 population and assets, a changing climate [3], coastal subsidence [4–6], and deforestation
81 [7,8]. Global flood losses in coastal cities are projected to increase from $6 billion per
82 year in 2005 to $52 billion a year by 2050 [9]. When damages due to sea-level rise and
83 coastal subsidence are included, costs in large coastal cities across the world are
84 estimated to reach $1 trillion a year in the absence of adaptation measures [9].
85 In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), 7.5 million inhabitants and $299
86 billion USD in built capital are exposed to flooding from a 100-year event, without
87 considering hurricanes [10]. This exposure will increase to 8.8 to 9.9 million inhabitants
88 by mid-century, when taking into account extreme sea levels, increasing populations, and
89 the historical trend in storm activity [10]. Flooding presents a high social and economic
90 burden, particularly in low-income vulnerable populations – those who are least able to
91 cope with the impacts and recover from the damages of flood events.
92 To address flooding and other disasters, the global Sendai Framework for Disaster
93 Risk Reduction (2015-2030) identifies understanding disaster risk as a top priority [11].
94 This understanding should encompass the multiple dimensions of vulnerability, capacity,
95 exposure of persons and assets, hazard characteristics, and the environment. A better
96 understanding of local community perceptions of flood hazards can inform risk
97 management planning that aims to reduce exposure to flood events while strengthening
98 the resilience and adaptive capacity of communities (i.e., Sendai Framework priority #3)
99 [11,12].This understanding can inform the development of tailored climate services for
100 disaster managers, such as early warning systems for floods (EWSFs) [11,11,13,14].
5 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
101 Early warning systems are integrated systems of surveillance, forecasting, and
102 prediction of threats; assessment of disaster risks; communication of activities, systems
103 and processes; and preparation that allow people, communities, governments, companies
104 and other interested parties to take appropriate measures to reduce disaster risks in
105 advance of hazardous events [15]. In the United Nations Climate Change COP15, sixteen
106 of the 21 Latin American countries listed the improvement and establishment of early
107 warning systems for climatic events, including floods, as a priority. When implemented
108 effectively as part of a comprehensive risk management plan, a well-designed EWSF
109 increases community and ecosystem resilience, reduces vulnerability and reduces
110 damages to economies, health, property, infrastructure, and other assets of people,
111 communities, nations, and the private sector [16,17].
112 Coastal Ecuador is particularly vulnerable to flooding due to an extensive, densely
113 populated coastline along the Pacific Ocean [10]. One in thirteen people (7%) in the
114 country live below 5 meters of elevation. Coastal Ecuador experiences severe floods
115 during El Niño events due to strong teleconnections that increase local rainfall, as
116 observed in 1997-1998, and 2016 [18,19]. A recent study identified coastal Ecuador as
117 the highest coastal risk location in LAC due to a combination of coastal hazards,
118 geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability [20]. When flood costs are
119 measured as percentage of GDP, the coastal city of Guayaquil (population 2,644,891,
120 [21]) ranks as the 3rd most vulnerable city to flooding worldwide [9]. In these coastal
121 cities, unstructured rapid urbanization has pushed the poor into low-lying areas along
122 estuarine waterways prone to flooding [22,23]. Coastal hazards, exposure (of people
123 assets, and ecosystems), and poverty converge for a perfect storm during natural disaster
6 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
124 emergencies that are anticipated to increase in frequency and severity due to climate
125 change [24–26].
126 In Ecuador, the Secretary of Risk Management (renamed the National Service for
127 Risk Management and Emergencies in 2018) has the primary responsibility to establish
128 early warning systems with a multi-hazard approach, through collaboration with national
129 technical-scientific institutions, civil defense, and local governments [15]. EWSFs have
130 been implemented in most of the river basins throughout the country using basic data;
131 however, detailed hydrometeorological data are available in four hydrographic basins
132 only. While these data sources are a key part of the national EWS, it is widely understood
133 that a lack of economic resources have impacted the operational capacity of EWSFs (A.
134 Vaca, pers. comm.). Municipalities also play a key role in risk management and can
135 solicit support to develop an EWSF, as they are required to adopt technologies and
136 procedures for the prevention and management of risks to individuals, communities, and
137 the environment [27]. Local adaptation measures, such as EWSFs, are urgently needed to
138 reduce the risk and impact of flood events. However, these measures should be informed
139 by a nuanced understanding of local social-ecological conditions, including community
140 perceptions and past experiences with flooding.
141 The aim of this study was to assess community perceptions and self-reported
142 actions in response to flooding in periurban neighborhoods in coastal Ecuador. Using
143 focus groups, participatory mapping, and community timelines, we investigated the
144 following topics from the perspective of local community members: (1) local flood
145 hazards including the causes of exposure to flooding; the frequency, duration, and
146 location of flood exposure; (2) factors influencing residents’ sensitivity to flooding; (3)
7 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
147 the local capacity to prepare, respond and recover to floods, generating insights on the
148 adaptive capacity of each community; (4) current local warning systems for flooding.
149
150 Methods
151 Ethics statement. This study was conducted in collaboration with the local
152 municipal government of Machala and the Secretary of Risk Management of Ecuador.
153 The investigation protocol was reviewed and deemed exempt by the Institutional Review
154 Board of SUNY Upstate Medical University. All participants were over the age of 18 and
155 no personal identifying information was collected.
156 Study Area. The midsized port city of Machala (population 279,887) is located on
157 the southern coast of Ecuador [21]. The economy of the city is based on agriculture
158 (bananas, cacao, coffee), aquaculture (shrimp), mining, and commerce associated with a
159 major port and proximity to the Peruvian border. The city was settled on lowland
160 mangrove forests and has an estuarine inlet along the Gulf of Guayaquil [28]. Machala
161 grew through a rapid, unstructured process of mangrove deforestation for shrimp farms
162 and urban settlements, resulting in (1) modification of the local hydrology of the
163 mangroves and (2) flood-prone slums bordering the mangrove fragments at the urban
164 periphery. In a recent analysis of urban coastal risks in Latin American and the
165 Caribbean, El Oro was identified as the number one hotspot of risk due to the large at-
166 risk population, susceptible ecosystems, high hazards due to El Niño events, and rates of
167 social vulnerability (i.e., high infant mortality rates, high malnutrition, low income and
168 high inequality) [20].
169 The tropical climate is marked by a hot rainy season from January to April
8 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
170 (average max temp = 31.7° in April), when 79% of rainfall occurs (average annual
171 rainfall = 675 mm). Heavy rainfall is associated with El Niño events [29–31], such as the
172 exceptionally strong 1997-1998 event, when over 1800 mm of rainfall were recorded. El
173 Niño events occur cyclically (every 2 to 7 years) when tropical central and eastern Pacific
174 Ocean surface temperatures increase, resulting in local climate anomalies [32].
175 Three neighborhoods in the urban periphery were selected as study sites. These
176 were identified as high flood risk zones through discussions with the municipal
177 government and local Secretary of Risk officials (Figure 1). The sites were located 1.5-3
178 km apart. Site 1 was Sauces 2, a neighborhood adjacent to an abandoned shrimp farm
179 (pop. 1266). Site 2 was Urseza 2 Sector 3, a neighborhood adjacent to a local river
180 system (pop. 498). Site 3 included Rayito de Luz and Riveras del Macho, two
181 neighborhoods adjacent to a large drainage canal (combined pop. 2258). Neighborhood
182 characteristics from the most recent national census are presented in Table 1. Generally,
183 these communities lacked adequate access to urban infrastructure, such as paved streets,
184 garbage collection, and municipal water/sewer connection.
9 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
Paciiffiic ECUADOR Machala Ocean ^_ Urseza 2 Sector 3 Sauces 2 PERU
Riveras de Macho
Rayito de Luz
Study Area (Flood-Prone Neighborhoods) E City of Machala 0 0.5 1 2 Kilometers
ISntusdeyr tA Preraoject Title City of Machala, El Oro, Ecuador
Notes: 1. Basemap: ESRI Basemap 2. This map was generated in ArcMap on October 29, 2017. 3. This is a color graphic. Reproduction in grayscale may misrepresent the data. 185 186 Figure 1. Study Sites within City of Machala, El Oro, Ecuador. The three 187 participating study sites included areas of the cities noted by municipal authorities as high 188 flood risk areas.
10 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
Table 1. Demographic summary of study sites. Demographic characteristics of study neighborhoods in Machala, Ecuador, from the most recent national census, conducted in 2010 [33]2]. Riveras de Macho and Rayito de Luz are treated as one study site, as they are geographically contiguous Urseza 2 Sector Riveras de Rayito de Census Indicator Sauces 2 3 Macho* Luz*
2010 Population 1,266 498 78 2,180 Maximum education of the head of household is 57% 45% 39% 51% primary education Age of the household 24.1 24.6 26.2 26.4 (average years) Households with four or more people per 25% 18% 17% 16% bedroom Women head of 36% 31% 31% 31% households Households without 54% 68% 43% 62% access to paved streets Households without 2% 0% 67% 66% access to sewerage Households without access to garbage 76% 63% 79% 83% collection Households without access to piped water 77% 77% 62% 70% inside the home 189
190 Research framework. In this study, we utilized a research framework that is
191 situated in the context of disaster risk reduction by encompassing the measures needed to
192 achieve risk reduction and community resilience, as previously described [25] (Figure 2).
193 In this framework, we adapted previously published operational measurement models for
194 research on flood risk management [26–29] to gain insights into the unique flood risk
195 challenges experienced by high-risk communities in Ecuador. The primary metrics that
196 we explored were flood hazards and vulnerabilities (Figure 2). We identified two tiers of
197 flood hazards, with primary hazards defined as direct impacts from flooding events, such
11 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
198 as high velocity flows destroying houses or eroding roads or bridges. We defined
199 secondary hazards as those stemming from primary hazards, such as contaminated
200 drinking water, power outages, or interruptions to communication or transportation
201 systems. Flood vulnerability metrics include exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
202 Exposure to flooding describes the presence of communities in places that could be
203 adversely affected by flood hazards. Sensitivity, also called “susceptibility,” refers to the
204 physical predisposition of exposed individuals or communities to be negatively affected
205 by a flood event due to lack of resistance or predisposition to suffer harm as a
206 consequence of a flood event [34–36]. Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of the
207 system to respond or adjust to a flooding event, to moderate potential damage, to take
208 advantage of opportunities, and to cope with the transformations that occur as a result of
209 the flooding [34]. As a sub-category of adaptive capacity, this framework examines
210 livelihood capitals [37,38] – the vital resource bases of communities and different
211 categories of households (e.g., human, natural, financial, physical and social capitals).
212
12 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
213
214 Figure 2. A research framework for flood hazards and vulnerability within the
215 context of risk Primary hazards are defined as direct impacts from flooding events, such
216 as high velocity flows destroying houses or eroding roads or bridges. Secondary hazards
217 are those stemming from primary hazards, such as contaminated drinking water, power
218 outages, or interruptions to communication or transportation systems. Exposure to
219 flooding describes the presence of communities in places that could be adversely affected
220 by flood hazards. Sensitivity, also called “susceptibility,” refers to the physical
221 predisposition of exposed individuals or communities to be negatively affected by a flood
222 event due to lack of resistance or predisposition to suffer harm as a consequence of a
223 flood event. Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of the system to respond or adjust to a
224 flooding event, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, and to
225 cope with the transformations that occur because of the flooding
13 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
226 Focus Group Methodology. Semi-structured focus group discussions were held in
227 each community. Neighborhood residents were recruited to participate in focus group
228 discussion in consultation with the presidents of each neighborhood council, and when
229 applicable (in two communities), the presidents of the councils of women. Focus groups
230 were segmented by gender (groups of men and women) based on local recommendations
231 and our prior experience that this approach would elicit more open dialogue. Each focus
232 group met twice, with both meetings led by a moderator and documented by a group note
233 taker, who summarized the discussion on poster paper in real-time. The first focus group
234 included questions regarding people’s previous experiences with flooding, specifically
235 the causes and impacts of flooding, frequency of flooding, areas flooded, and the relative
236 intensity of flood exposure. With facilitated guidance from the moderator, participants
237 generated a timeline of flood events in each community; they self defined these events as
238 floods that exceeded their perception of normal (shallower) annual flooding. They noted
239 the depth of normal flooding and specific flood events, and they listed the causes and
240 impacts of flooding. A mapping exercise was conducted to identify high-risk areas and
241 flood extent in each area during normal years and during moderate and extreme flood
242 events. Focus group participants divided into groups of 3-5 people and were provided
243 printed aerial imagery maps of their neighborhood. To orient themselves, participants
244 first marked the location of important neighborhood landmarks (e.g. their homes, schools,
245 soccer fields). Participants then outlined the areas impacted by the flooding events
246 identified in the timeline, and they identified other areas of special concern with respect
247 to flooding (e.g., areas with inadequate infrastructure). Map elements were verified by
248 researchers and community leaders who walked through the community and
14 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
249 georeferenced key landmarks and locations using handheld GPS units.
250 Within three weeks the same groups reconvened for a second focus group to
251 discuss flood-related actions taken in their community, specifically preparation actions
252 taken before flood events, response actions during flooding, and recovery actions post-
253 flooding. People were also asked to identify key institutional partners associated with the
254 actions, community assets, and resource limitations.
255 All focus group discussions were held in the late afternoon or evening in a
256 community meeting area and lasted between 60 and 90 minutes. Representatives from the
257 Secretary of Risk Management were present at every meeting to answer questions once
258 the discussion was over. ET facilitated the focus group discussions and was accompanied
259 by local research assistants who were trained as observers and note takers. All
260 discussions were tape-recorded and transcribed with permission from participants. Local
261 research assistants transcribed the recordings of focus groups.
262 We analyzed transcripts using a codebook and qualitative analysis software,
263 Dedoose Version 6.1.11. Transcripts of focus groups and field notes were coded using the
264 research framework described in Figure 2; codes are presented in S1 Table. Participant-
265 generated histories of flood events (years and flood depth) were converted into bar charts
266 for each site. Participant-generated maps of flood extent, areas of special concern, and
267 community landmarks were digitized using Q-GIS and ArcGIS. Our findings were
268 presented to communities and to the municipal government in January 2015 for feedback
269 and validation.
270
271
15 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
272 Results
273 Eleven semi-structured focus group discussions, with a total of 65 people, were
274 held from September 2014 to November 2014 (three focus groups in Site 1, four focus
275 groups in Site 2, four focus groups in Site 3). A range of 6 to 25 people participated in
276 each focus group, which were segmented by gender and neighborhood, and represented a
277 range of age groups (age range: late teens to late 70s).
278 Exposure and flood hazards. Community members reported normal annual
279 flooding following heavy seasonal rains, with floods ranging in depth ranged from 0.1
280 (Site 3) to 1 meter (Site 2) (Figure 3). The number of greater than normal flood events
281 that occurred over the last 30 years ranged from two (site 1, flooding every 15 years) to
282 eight events (site 3, flooding every 3-4 years). Flood events ranged in depth from 0.5 to 3
283 meters, and their duration lasted anywhere from hours to months. The largest flood
284 events were observed in 1982 and 1997/98, which coincided with some of the strongest
285 El Niño events on record. Other flood events in 1992 and 1994 may have been associated
286 with moderate El Niño events. Sites 2 and 3 reported a similar total number of flood
287 events (7 and 8, respectively); however, the average depth of floods in site 2 (2.3 meters,
288 SD=0.53) was greater than site 3 (1.25 meters, SD=0.65)
16 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
289 290 Figure 3. Historical flood timeline. A timeline of flood events and flood depth over the
291 last 30 years was created by community members in focus groups. The depth of flooding
292 in normal years is also noted.
17 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
293 People identified and mapped the sectors of their neighborhood that flooded
294 annually and during exceptional flood events (Figure 4). They identified ten areas of
295 special concern for flooding. For example, participants at Site 3 identified a berm that
296 was built recently to isolate floodwaters from the adjacent low-lying residential area. The
297 berm was built without a concrete cap and individuals were illegally removing fill
298 material from the berm for their personal use, thereby weakening the berm’s protective
299 capacity. Participants were concerned the berm would collapse during the next flood
300 event, further compounding the flood hazards of nearby homes.
301 “The government built this berm, but the people are not aware [of the purpose]:
302 they remove the berm material to fill their own [properties]. They don’t know.
303 The problem is that it endangers us all. Luckily it hasn’t rained hard recently.”
304 (Man from Site 3)
305
18 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
Study Site 1: Study Site 2: Riveras de Macho Sauces 2 3 & Rayito de Luz
4 1 E 2 5 6 0 250 500 Meters
Study Site 3: 7 Urseza 2 Sector 3 10 3 E 0 125 250 Meters 8 9 LEGEND Flood Spatial Extent Street within Study Site E Canal Normal Years 0 100 200 Meters Areas of Special Concern Moderate Years 306 Extreme Years 307 Figure 4. Flooding Extents within Study Areas. Maps generated by focus group 308 members show the geographic extent of historic floods occurring within their 309 communities. The ten areas of special concern included the following: (1) Key places 310 with strong currents during floods— these areas encompassed police and fire stations, 311 along with community health clinic; (2) inadequately-sized drainage pipes; (3) El Macho 312 Canal—a tidal-influenced canal that acts as primary drainage canal for sewer and 313 stormwater systems, and a source of floodwater; (4) former shrimp farm—many parcels 314 are unfilled and are full of water year-rounds; streets in this area have large persistent 315 mud puddles that limit transit and pedestrians; (5) El Tigre Canal—a stagnant ditch that 316 regularly overflows, flooding roads and private homes; (6) a primary road that remains 317 dry during seasonal floods—this intersection also is used as a meeting area for 318 community events; (7) inadequately-sized culverts; (8) a low-lying area that was formerly 319 a brick quarry (known as “the hole”)—this site has an elementary school and private 320 residences and endures annual flooding; (9) a berm constructed of uncapped material 321 fill—material is being removed illegally and used as fill for private properties; (10) 322 abandoned shrimp farm—stagnant pools collect water and periodically flood.
19 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
323 Community members reported that proximity to blocked drainage areas was the
324 most important geographic determinant of flood exposure; blockages were notably
325 caused by trash accumulation. People indicated that most areas within the communities
326 did not have regular municipal garbage collection and infrastructure (e.g. trash
327 platforms), which when combined with the presence of stray dogs and illegal dumping,
328 resulted in a severe and perpetual litter problem.
329 High tides were the second key factor impacting the exposure of certain
330 communities, particularly those near estuarine canals at the edge of the city (e.g., Site 1,
331 Figure 4). High tides impeded rainwater runoff during heavy rainfall events, resulting in
332 flooding. Machala’s largest estuarine canal, “El Macho”, is one of the two main canals
333 that transport the city’s runoff and untreated sewage into the ocean. Participants from Site
334 1 reported that as recently as 30 years ago, El Macho canal was a naturally flowing
335 mangrove inlet, with clear water used for swimming, bathing and fishing. In recent
336 decades, increasing urban settlements have augmented sedimentation and flow rates in
337 the canal, coupled with the proliferation of formal and informal sewer drains flowing into
338 the canal.
339 Low elevation was the third factor that increased people’s exposure to flood
340 waters. Unfilled parcels of land collected standing water that could linger for months, or
341 in some cases, year round. Participants from Site 2 (Figure 4) identified year-round
342 flooding problems, particularly in properties that had not purchased material fill and
343 lacked pumps and sewer systems to remove the pools of water in the unfilled parcels.
344 “There is no [storm] sewer system…here it rains and it stagnates. It doesn’t have
345 anywhere to go.” (Woman from Site 2)
20 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
346 The ability to raise the elevation of a property was dependent on the economic resources
347 of the family, as described in the following,
348 “Sometimes the [economic] situation of some families is so low, and there is no
349 fill [because] there is no money” (Woman from Site 2)
350 Participants highlighted that management of growth and development in flood plains
351 would be a fundamental step to prevent flood exposure.
352 People reported that the primary hazards associated with flooding were damages
353 to individual property (e.g., homes, cars, animals) and damages to people’s health (e.g.,
354 drowning, injury). Secondary hazards included the disruption of transportation due to
355 road erosion and destabilization of infrastructure and buildings. A participant described
356 the compounding impact that floods had on existing infrastructure, which was perceived
357 as inadequate for flood drainage:
358 “On the street where I live, there’s a canal… That canal is now pure garbage,
359 which clogs [the culvert] and stagnates it. This year we are afraid that it’s going
360 to rupture… the pipe is very small.” (Woman from Site 1)
361 Other health impacts were also identified as a key secondary hazards of flooding,
362 including water- and vector-borne diseases, and venomous snakebites. Vector-borne
363 diseases (notably dengue fever transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito) were noted as
364 a risk factor for residents who lived in proximity to pools of standing water. Participants
365 reported the amplification of skin infections during annual flooding, when people came
366 into contact with stagnant water mixed with flood and wastewater. With a lack of
367 adequate sewerage infrastructure and low-elevation streets, exposure to flood water and
368 mud, and the resulting health outcomes, was identified as a chronic problem.
21 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
369 Sensitivity to flooding. Participants reported that certain demographic groups were
370 particularly afflicted by flood-related health problems, as well as economic and material
371 losses. Across all focus groups, children, the elderly, and the physically handicapped
372 were identified as the most sensitive populations, due to lower immunity to infections;
373 decreased mobility; and reliance on others for medication, food, and water. Children were
374 also vulnerable due to higher exposure to contaminated floodwaters while playing
375 outdoors. Focus groups identified low-income households as highly sensitive, since they
376 were less likely to have a second floor of the home where they could seek refuge or store
377 valuables during floods. They were also less likely to have a rooftop cistern with ample
378 freshwater, and were less able to purchase fill to raise the level of their parcel. Residents
379 who relied on public transportation systems were affected because they had to wade
380 through floodwaters and mud during their daily commutes. Car owners also faced
381 financial burdens due to damages to their automobiles during floods. Other sensitive
382 groups included people with livestock (poultry primarily) and pets (cats, dogs), as well as
383 people without nearby relatives to help with recovery costs and evacuations.
384 Adaptive capacity across flood stages. Adaptive capacity refers to the capacity of
385 the community to respond or adjust to a flooding event, moderate potential damage, take
386 advantage of opportunities, and cope with the consequences of a transformation that
387 occurs as a result of the flooding [39]. Community members discussed identified
388 community resources, actions taken during the three phases of flood events (preparation
389 and prevention, response, and recovery), and factors that affected their ability to respond.
390 Key neighborhood resources with respect to flooding included green areas,
391 schools, nurseries, fire stations, health clinics, police stations, a retention wall (berm), and
22 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
392 an emergency meeting place (S2 Figure). The number of resources ranged from two (site
393 1) to five (site 3). Schools and green areas were the most important resources, as these
394 were reported by two of the three sites. In the past, flood evacuations had interrupted the
395 school year due to the use of schools as shelters. Recently, however, the national policy
396 of using schools as evacuation shelters was abolished, and evacuees are now directed
397 towards a city sports center.
398 With respect to the flood preparation and prevention stage, people perceived that
399 the most important household-level action was purchasing fill material to raise the level
400 of low-lying parcels, as identified by all focus groups. They also perceived the
401 importance of stocking up on canned food, bottled water and flashlights, and creating
402 flood emergency kits. They noted that household members should keep their patios tidy
403 as a way to maintain clear drainage systems during floods and to prevent the spread of
404 mosquito-borne diseases At the community level, participants, particularly in Sites 1 and
405 2, recommended community cleanups (“mingas”) to remove accumulated debris from
406 drainage canals. Participants from Site 3 had recently formed a neighborhood brigade
407 (“brigada barrial”) that had been trained in flood response simulations by the National
408 Secretary of Risk Management. Most individuals, however, were unaware of this
409 initiative, suggesting the need for community outreach and education by governmental
410 agencies. Participants identified limited household financial resources and lack of
411 community leadership as underlying barriers to flood prevention. They also perceived
412 that the community lacked the political voice and coordination needed to obtain support
413 for large-scale infrastructure improvements to reduce flood exposure, as expressed in the
414 following:
23 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
415 There is no communication between authorities… People do not put pressure on
416 them to do something good for the neighborhood. What people always want to do
417 is to overthrow the government, not to put the pressure on them to do something
418 good for the neighborhood.” (Man from Site 3)
419 A community leader commented on community fatigue and the difficulty in organizing
420 people for preparation efforts (or other initiatives for that matter) after a prolonged local
421 campaign to legalize the informal community ended successfully and residents now had a
422 sense of complacency in their political involvement.
423 “The moment that the mayor legalized the properties… nobody came to meetings.
424 That is what happens… when it comes to a workshop, [now] no one has time.
425 They will tell you, ‘I am busy.’… Now it takes a lot of effort to organize us.”
426 (Woman from Site 2)
427 Participants discussed the effectiveness of the formal and informal flood warnings
428 preceding the flood response stage. They indicated that formal communication outlets
429 (e.g. television and radio) did provide general flood warnings based on forecasted rainfall
430 as part of an existing official EWSF operated by the national government. However, they
431 perceived that the forecasts were either too general or not timely enough. A participant
432 described an ad-hoc warning system, based on upstream river observations,
433 "Sometimes, by chance, one travels from Guabo [a nearby town upstream from
434 Machala] to see that the Jubones River is full. Then they will let us know that
435 there is risk [of flooding] ... It's the only way [to know in advance], because the
436 authorities do not warn us, and there are no alarms ... nothing. The last time that
437 the Jubones peaked and overflowed, [down] here was a scorching sun… It
24 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
438 happens because the Jubones brings water from the mountains (Azuay) and when
439 the Jubones fills, and there is high tide here, we flood." (Woman from Site 3)
440 Other instances of informal flood warnings occurred through community communication
441 channels on social media, such as Facebook, Twitter or WhatsApp. Focus group
442 participants suggested that there should be more use of these existing communication
443 channels during the flood response. However, they also indicated that excessive reliance
444 on informal communication chains in times of crisis might lead to problems in reaching
445 all members of the community equally. For that reason, all focus groups identified the use
446 of sirens or loudspeakers as the most effective way to alert people for flood evacuations.
447 With respect to the flood response stage, people perceived community and
448 governmental actions to be relatively effective. Community members were mobilized
449 during times of crisis to help their neighbors in need. At Site 2, neighbors helped each
450 other dig ad-hoc drainage ditches when a clogged canal created a small flood.
451 Governmental actions included emitting alerts and coordinating evacuations and rescues.
452 However, enforcing mandated evacuations was difficult, according to focus groups, due
453 to the real concern of looting and the lack of police surveillance. When asked how one
454 decided to stay or go during a flood evacuation, one participant responded,
455 “You have to stay because if not, you will be left without anything… the thieves do
456 not care. They jump into the water and that’s it.” (Woman from Site 3)
457 During the flood recovery stage, community members struggled to take actions to
458 repair the damages caused by flooding. People said that they were responsible for bearing
459 the cost of rebuilding their home, and they were unaware of flood insurance programs for
460 private homeowners. Participants indicated that approximately one month of wages were
25 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
461 lost during reconstruction efforts following extreme flood events—a significant loss for a
462 low-income family. Although they identified some governmental and non-governmental
463 organization (NGO) programs that assist in rebuilding homes (e.g. Hogares del Cristo),
464 these programs were highly competitive, middle class families were not eligible, and the
465 bamboo construction was perceived as not durable. Despite these challenges, they did
466 describe moments of unity to help each other rebuild after the flood, for example when
467 people at Site 1 came together to repair a neighbor’s home that had collapsed into the
468 Macho Canal. Community members expressed distrust of local authorities, which they
469 perceived to be more interested in political maneuvering than improving the welfare of
470 the people.
471 “The authorities only come when there are votes and when it's election time…
472 They offer [funding] when there are elections… Or when there is a collapsed
473 house or a drowning, but [even then] only that family is helped.” (Man from Site
474 1)
475
476 Discussion
477 Coastal flooding incurs a high social and economic burden worldwide, and the
478 impacts are projected to increase in urban areas [1,2]. Information on local community
479 perceptions of flood exposure, vulnerabilities, and adaptive capacity can inform the
480 implementation of tailored flood risk reduction strategies, such as those of the United
481 Nations Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to prepare, respond, and “build
482 back better” in recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction [11]. This study was
483 conducted in high flood risk areas in Machala, Ecuador, one of the most vulnerable cities
26 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
484 in the Americas for coastal flooding. The findings and the participatory approach applied
485 here can inform practitioners and community members seeking to implement
486 interventions to reduce flood exposure. To the best of our knowledge, no prior studies
487 have been conducted in this region to understand community perceptions of flooding.
488 This study revealed persistent social-ecological vulnerabilities that increased
489 flood risk and exposure in the urban periphery, such as inadequate access to garbage
490 collection, homes settled in precarious low-lying geographies, economic barriers, lack of
491 political access, and lack of social mobilization. These findings build upon prior studies
492 highlighting specific socioeconomic drivers of flood vulnerabilities in urban Latin
493 American cities [10,20]. The adaptive capacity of communities in Machala is severely
494 limited by lack of clean water, sanitation, property insurance, and secure employment. In
495 addition, communities expressed a lack of social capital (e.g. political voice), despite the
496 existence of formalized community councils. Previous studies have also shown that social
497 capital, including social networks, familiar ties, and traditions are much less supportive
498 and less stable in urban areas than they are in rural areas, where individuals share the
499 same culture and community attachment [40,41].
500 Community members described a history of annual flooding and extreme flood
501 events associated with strong El Niño events coupled with high tides. To date, the flood
502 warnings in Ecuador incorporate only rainfall data. Integrated monitoring networks are
503 needed, as tidal levels play a key role in coastal flood events. Recent studies suggest the
504 potential to forecast El Niño events up to two years in advance [42], and these models are
505 being used with an ensemble of climate forecasts to predict climate conditions and
506 mosquito-borne disease epidemics in this region [19]. During the exceptionally strong
27 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
507 2016 El Niño event, investigators were able to accurately predict the large flood event
508 that occurred in Machala in February and the increase in dengue fever transmission one
509 month later [19]. This was the largest flood on record since the 1997-1998 El Niño; over
510 170 mm of rain fell in 10 hours and coincided with high tides [43]. This flood event
511 occurred after this study was completed, but it certainly appears that many of the same
512 risk factors were at play. The incorporation of El Niño events and tidal data in flood
513 hazard modeling for coastal areas is a critical component of management efforts along
514 the Pacific coast of Latin America [10].
515 This study builds on existing vulnerability frameworks [26–29] and risk analyses
516 [20] by providing qualitative insights on local flood risk to otherwise traditionally
517 quantitative analyses, in line with the priorities of Sendai Framework [11]. Our findings
518 complement these other assessments by providing a fine-scale analysis that focuses of
519 flood perceptions at the community level.
520 This study provides a localized perspective on the ecological drivers of flood
521 vulnerabilities, such as the loss of coastal mangroves. Between 1969 and 2011,
522 mangroves in Ecuador declined 62%, largely due to the construction of shrimp farms
523 [44,45]. Sites from this study were either former mangrove areas or in close proximity to
524 former mangrove areas. Mangroves regulate the impacts of climatic events, an essential
525 ecosystem service, through buffering of storm surges, trapping sediment and debris, and
526 reducing the impact of waves and high winds [46]. The loss of mangroves makes coastal
527 cities, like Machala, more vulnerable to the hazards of storms and associated flooding.
528 Mangrove restoration and conservation are a “nature based solution” [47] to reduce the
529 risk of coastal flooding [48].
28 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
530 This study provides local insights into the escalating social injustices associated
531 with development in low-lying coastal areas. With high development costs to elevate
532 homes out of the floodplain, matched with land use policies that drive low-income
533 communities into these low-lying areas, we hypothesize that the communities in this
534 study bear a proportionately greater social and economic burden of flooding than
535 wealthier communities in Machala. Additionally, areas close to sea level are more likely
536 to be impacted by sea level rise due to climate change, further increasing localized
537 financial burdens.
538 Community members reported limited adaptive capacity, which was most notable
539 in the preparation/prevention and the recovery/rebuild phases of the flood response. Prior
540 studies have also noted that adaptive capacity to the impacts of climate change is low
541 throughout Latin America [49], particularly in urban areas [50]. This has been attributed
542 to poor housing conditions, a lack of infrastructure, lack of decision-maker access to local
543 data, and national policy that focuses primarily on mitigation efforts as opposed to
544 adaptation efforts [12,22,51]. Additional research is needed to identify effective climate
545 change adaptation strategies in Latin American cities [49].
546 The results of this study suggest that the participatory community-based
547 assessment methodology used here may be an effective tool for practitioners and
548 researchers. The community timelines developed by the focus groups provided localized
549 indicators of the relative impact that El Niño events had on their community in the past.
550 While memory driven data is predisposed for inaccuracies (e.g., see year-to-year
551 discrepancies between focus group recollections of the 1982 and 1997/1998 El Niño
552 events) and over-simplicity (e.g. factors of tidal blockages include astronomical tides,
29 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
553 storm surges, wave run-up and sea level rise), we found that community-driven timelines
554 did provide a useful conversation tool as well as a gauge for the relative impacts of
555 episodic flooding. In cities such as Machala, where accurate local hydrological records do
556 not exist for periurban areas, community timelines can provide a reasonable source of
557 data records that can be triangulated with meteorological and climate records across
558 larger spatial scales.
559 Since this qualitative case study focused on high-risk periurban areas, these
560 findings cannot be generalized to other moderate to low risk communities, or to
561 communities that face a lower overall risk of flooding. Also, participants who opted to
562 participate in this study may have been more motivated to do so based on their personal
563 experience with flooding. Historical intensity and frequency of flooding are subject to the
564 collective community memories. This case study was not used to prioritize a particular
565 group by their vulnerability, but rather to present a nuanced characterization of flooding
566 in high-risk communities. In this way, the methodology provides key insights necessary
567 to inform potential flood risk reduction actions.
568 Opportunities and policy implications. In 2006, the document “Developing Early
569 Warning Systems: A Checklist” was developed to implement the early warning
570 components of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction Hyogo Framework for
571 Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters
572 [52]. This document presents four key elements essential to people-centered early
573 warning systems: 1) risk knowledge built upon systematic collection of data to address
574 patterns and trends for a variety of hazards and vulnerability; 2) monitoring and warning
575 services built upon accurate and timely scientific information; 3) clear and
30 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
576 understandable dissemination and communication of risk information and early warnings
577 to all members of the public; and 4) responses based on updated and tested plans that
578 utilize local capacities and knowledge and are familiar to the public. The following
579 findings and recommendations are elicited from this case study, and they link to the UN-
580 ISDR Early Warning System checklist items discussed above.
581 (1) Improve monitoring and accuracy of warnings. We found that many individuals
582 lacked confidence in the ability of existing official EWSFs to accurately predict flooding
583 risk and chose to rely on informal information channels for localized flood information.
584 This suggests that there is room to improve the effectiveness of existing systems.
585 Hydrological monitoring and flood forecasts can be improved by increasing the number
586 of upstream water level stations, by incorporating community monitoring and validation
587 [53], and by incorporating tidal and El Niño information. Identifying locations and
588 thresholds of water depths upstream that predict downstream flooding could optimize
589 monitoring networks. This community-based approach to EWSFs has been further
590 described in detail in a resource manual developed by the International Centre for
591 Integrated Mountain Development (Pradhan, et al. 2016).
592 (2) Develop clear flood warnings across a variety of communication channels. Our
593 findings suggest that the use of both formal and informal communication networks may
594 improve the delivery of EWSFs information. Flood forecasts issued via a system of sirens
595 or loudspeakers, AM radio (used by taxi drivers) or other individualized alert systems
596 (possibly text alerts) could complement the existing television or radios communication
597 channels. In doing so, community members could potentially have more time to move
598 household belongings, gather livestock and/or evacuate. While sirens provide a warning
31 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
599 to all individuals within hearing range, their effectiveness depends on whether
600 community members know how to respond. More individualized warnings, such as text
601 messaging, could be accompanied with detailed instructions on how to best respond
602 based on different locations or varying mobility ranges.
603 (3) Integrate EWSFs with existing community flood response systems. We found that
604 community-level actions were a key element of the effectiveness of the flood response.
605 An EWSF can further take advantage of these local resources by being thoroughly
606 integrated into a variety of community-based initiatives and organizations. Community
607 members said that they were capable of participating in collective actions like work
608 brigades, childcare, or training each other in preparation simulations. Education
609 campaigns should be adequately staffed and resourced to properly inform communities
610 on how EWSFs work, along continuing efforts that implement simulations of the steps
611 needed to properly respond during floods. A good example was the recent tsunami EWS
612 outreach campaign in Ecuador, where community members received training and
613 identified potential escape routes and meeting locations for their families in the case of a
614 tsunami.
615 (4) Link climate change adaptation to disaster risk reduction and resilience modeling:
616 Consideration of long-term and cumulative impacts in flood modeling may be combined
617 to both generate better EWSFs and lead to more resilient infrastructure. Factors
618 contributing to flooding, like the improperly sized drainage and impermeable surfaces in
619 floodplains, should be incorporated into flood models. These flood models should be
620 applied when upgrading or repairing infrastructure to accommodate changes in flood
621 depth and frequency due to climate change.
32 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
622 (5) Include principles of flood resiliency and risk prevention in comprehensive planning
623 and land use regulations: We found that a lack of planning and regulatory land use tools,
624 as well as the lack of enforcement and implementation of existing plans and regulations
625 was one common factor underlying several issues discussed in focus groups, such as
626 uneven fill between properties and roads, dense development in high-risk flood zones and
627 low-quality building materials for both housing and sewer and stormwater infrastructure.
628 While risk management and climate change adaptation are national policies of Ecuador,
629 challenges remain in operationalizing climate adaptation and risk management policies
630 for local communities. Land-use zoning code and related land use policies should be
631 enacted and enforced to dissuade residential development in hazardous areas like canal
632 buffers and to use high-quality and appropriately-engineered flood management
633 structures. Educational and collaborative planning opportunities exist at both local and
634 municipal levels.
635
636 Conclusions
637 This study emerged in response to research priorities identified by National
638 Secretary of Risk of Ecuador, an active partner in this investigation. One outcome of this
639 study has been the empowerment of community members engaged in this research
640 process. Community leaders have used the results of this study to advocate for flood risk
641 reduction actions with local policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment framework and
642 participatory research process utilized here can potentially inform studies in other flood-
643 prone regions to guide the development of EWSFs and other climate change adaptation
644 policies and actions.
33 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
645
646 Acknowledgements. We thank P. Romero-Lankao, M. Lemos, and investigators from
647 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for guidance during the project
648 development, and collaborators from the Secretary of Risk Management in Machala and
649 Guayaquil, Ecuador, the municipal government of Machala, Center for the Conservation
650 and Eco-Development of Samaná Bay and its Surroundings (CEBSE) in the Dominican
651 Republic, and the Autoridad Madre Tierra and United Nations Development Programme
652 (UNDP) in Bolivia.
653
34 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
654 Supporting Information Legends
655 S1 Table. Codes for the analysis of focus group transcripts. Codes were developed
656 based on vulnerability framework (Figure 2) and were used for qualitative analyses of
657 transcripts.
658
659 S2 Figure. Community generated maps identify points of interest with respect to
660 flooding, such as emergency meeting places, community resources (schools, fire station,
661 medical clinic), evacuation routes, streets, green spaces, berms, etc. Map text in Spanish.
662
35 Urban coastal flood vulnerability in Ecuador
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