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Exploring Alternatives to the Two-State Solution Woodrow Wilson School Graduate Policy Workshop Exploring Alternatives toto tothe Two-State Solution In the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict Farrington · Hinman · Joyce · Sadot · Singal · van der Linde · Westphal Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer, Faculty Advisor Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University December 2012 Page 0 WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL GRADUATE POLICY WORKSHOP Exploring Alternatives to the Two-State Solution In the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict Jane Farrington, Richard Hinman, Daniel Joyce, Uri Sadot, Jesse Singal, Ross van der Linde, Carl Westphal Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer, Faculty Advisor WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PRINCETON UNIVERSITY DECEMBER 2012 Exploring Alternatives to the Two-State Solution Woodrow Wilson School Graduate Policy Workshop “Exploring Alternatives To The Two-State Solution In The Palestinian-Israeli Conflict” Authors: Jane Farrington, Richard Hinman, Daniel Joyce, Uri Sadot, Jesse Singal, Ross van der Linde, Carl Westphal Faculty Advisory: Ambassador (Ret.) Daniel Kurtzer Woodrow Wilson School of Public And International Affairs Princeton University December 2012 Page 2 Exploring Alternatives to the Two-State Solution ABOUT THE 2012 POLICY WORKSHOP The 2012 Policy Workshop is composed of a diverse report. While we are deeply indebted to the many group of graduate students at Princeton University's distinguished people with whom we consulted, the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International views presented here do not necessarily reflect the Affairs. Working under the direction of Ambassador views of Princeton University, Ambassador Kurtzer, Daniel Kurtzer, former U.S. ambassador to Egypt or any individual student. Sometimes dissenting and and Israel, we spent several months between alternate views are highlighted in the text. September and December 2012 studying the history of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, analyzing Elements of this paper's production were indirectly whether the two-state solution remains viable, funded by the United States Government through exploring whether there are any better alternatives, the participation of one or more federal employees and developing a strategy to guide U.S. policy on as a student in academic study at the Woodrow the conflict under the second Obama administration. Wilson School of Princeton University. Over the course of this process, we consulted nearly 100 current and former officials, diplomats, We would like to thank Cecilia E. Rouse, Karen academics, expert analysts, and civil society leaders McGuinness, Melissa Lyles, Debbie Nexon, and in Israel, the West Bank, Egypt, Jordan, and the everyone else at the Woodrow Wilson School of United States, as well as representatives from the Public and International Affairs who provided the United Nations, the European Union, and other support and assistance that made this workshop international stakeholders. possible. This paper represents the conclusion of the 2012 For more information, please contact the Woodrow Policy Workshop. The entire workshop participated Wilson School's Office of External Affairs at (609) in the discussions, debate and preparation of this 258-2943. Page 3 Exploring Alternatives to the Two-State Solution MEETING PARTICIPANTS The following is a list of people that the group met with during the workshop, in Israel, the West Bank, Egypt, Jordan, and Washington, D.C. We are grateful for their willingness to take the time to participate in this project. The views expressed in the report do not necessarily represent the views of any individual with whom we met. Dr. Samih Al-Abed Ambassador Avi Gil Mr. Amir Oren Mr. Elliott Abrams Mr. Khalid El Gindy Mr. Zuhair Osaily Mr. Xavier Abu Eid Dr. Galia Golan Mr. Ahmed Qurie Mr. Ali Abunimah Mr. Rouman Haddad Mr. Jibril Rajoub Ms. Hayat Abu-Saleh Ms. Dina Heikal Mr. David J. Ranz Mr. Laith Arafeh Mr. Gemal Helal Mr. Michael Ratney Mr. Shaul Arieli Dr. Yair Hirschfeld Mr. Dennis Ross Deputy Minister Daniel Ayalon DCM Mahmoud Hmoud Mr. Dan Rothem Mr. Bashar Azzeh Dr. Alick Isaacs Mr. Natan Sachs Dr. Mustafa Barghouthi Mr. Chris Keeler Mr. Anwar E. El Sadat Mr. Aluf Benn First Secretary Adi Khair Dr. Nader Said-Foqahaa Mr. Naftali Bennett Dr. Menachem Klein Ms. Suhad Sakalla Dr. Nathan Brown Ms. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenborg Mr. Uri Savir Mr. Rami Dajani Mr. Daoud Kuttab Mr. Jonathan Schwartz Dr. Robert Danin Ms. Yael Lampert Mr. Daniel Seidemann Mr. Danny Dayan Mr. Scott Lasensky Mr. Robert Serry Mr. Udi Dekel Mr. Yehezkel Lein Mr. Gilead Sher Mr. Giora Eiland Ms. Tzipi Livni Mr. Mark Singleton Dr. Arieh Eldad Mr. Philip Madanat Mr. Nadav Tamir Mr. Mostafa Elostaz Mr. David Makovsky Mr. Shalom Turgeman Dr. Saeb Erakat Rabbi Michael Melchior Mr. Seifeldin Usher Mr. Eran Etzion Mr. Aaron David Miller Governor Jihad Al Wazir Ambassador Nabil Fahmy Mr. Isaac Molho Mr. Dov Weissglas Colonel Wade Foote Mr. Yousef Munayyer Mr. Ehud Ya'ari Rabbi Menachem Froman Dr. Nimrod Novik Dr. Husam Zomlot Ms. Jennifer Gavito Dr. Sari Nusseibeh Dr. George Giacaman Mr. Absal Nusseibeh Page 4 Exploring Alternatives to the Two-State Solution TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 6 I. The Two-State Imperative ........................................................................................................................ 6 II. Key Insights from Conversations on the Ground ................................................................................. 8 Israel ......................................................................................................................................................... 8 The West Bank ......................................................................................................................................... 9 Egypt and Jordan ..................................................................................................................................... 9 III. U.S. Policy Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 10 Palestinian Actors .................................................................................................................................. 10 Israel ........................................................................................................................................................ 12 International and Other Actors ............................................................................................................ 13 I. The Two-State Imperative ........................................................................................................................14 Table: Summary of Alternatives to Two-State Solution ......................................................................17 II. Key Insights from Conversations on the Ground ................................................................................. 19 Key Insights from Israel ............................................................................................................................. 19 Key Insights from the West Bank ............................................................................................................. 21 Key Insights from Egypt and Jordan ........................................................................................................ 23 III. U.S. Policy Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 25 Palestinian Actors ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Israeli Actors .............................................................................................................................................. 32 International and Other Actors ............................................................................................................... 38 Page 5 Exploring Alternatives to the Two-State Solution EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. THE TWO-STATE IMPERATIVE DESPITE FORMIDABLE OBSTACLES, THE TWO-STATE acceptable to both parties. Models involving SOLUTION REMAINS VIABLE. confederations, binational states, or regional options did not meet the conditions of being both more On both sides of the conflict, many policy makers plausible than the two-state solution and satisfying insist that: 1) the expansion of Israeli settlements has the legitimate demands of both the Israeli and already rendered untenable the land swaps required Palestinian people. for a two-state solution; 2) there is not sufficient political will on one or both sides to secure a two- WHILE THE TWO-STATE SOLUTION REMAINS THE state solution; and 3) one or both sides lack a real MOST VIABLE SOLUTION, IT MAY HAVE AN partner for peace. Our research suggests that that EXPIRATION DATE. the pessimists are wrong and that the goal of two states for two peoples remains salvageable, for Almost every sign points to the need for urgency: several reasons. First, land swaps remain viable, since from the physical “facts on the ground,” which a significant proportion of the Israeli settler include the expansion of Israeli settlements; to the population in the West Bank could potentially be open question of the future of the Israeli induced to return to Israel using economic government, which has
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