WINNING THE PEACE: HUNGER AND INSTABILITY DECEMBER 2017 Correct Citation: WFP USA , 2017. Winning the Peace: Hunger and Instability. World Food Program USA. Washington, D.C. World Food Program USA is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization that proudly supports the mission of the United Nations World Food Programme, the leading agency fighting hunger. By mobilizing individuals, lawmakers and businesses in the U.S. to advance the global movement to end hunger, we bolster an enduring American legacy of feeding families in need around the world. The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of World Food Program USA and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the World Food Programme. "Winning the Peace: Hunger and Instability” was produced within WFP USA’s Public Policy Department, under the leadership of Rick Leach, WFP USA’s President and CEO, and Deborah Saidy, Vice President, Public Policy. Dr. Chase Sova, Director of Public Policy and Research, served as the primary author of the report and Galen Fountain, Consultant, provided strategic research support. “Winning the Peace” has benefited from expertise from across WFP USA’s Departments and from comments provided by several third-party reviewers. The authors would like to extend their deepest gratitude to all involved in the production of this report. Cover photo: WFP/Karel Prinsloo 1 Foreword Though we represented different parties in the U.S. Senate, eradicating global hunger has always been a cause that united us. Growing up in Kansas and South Dakota, respectively, we each spent summers working on the farm, learning firsthand the process of putting food on America’s tables. Decades later, in Congress, these experiences helped shape our careers. Ensuring food security, both at home and abroad, became a central issue for both of us—because it is not only the right thing to do, but also one of the best ways to invest taxpayer dollars. Throughout modern history, the U.S. has led the global fight against hunger and famine, from the Marshall Plan to the Food for Peace and the McGovern-Dole school nutrition programs. Beyond the moral leadership and economic benefits generated by these investments, international food assistance also protects our own national security interests by enhancing global stability. It was true after World War II and it holds just as true today. Unprecedented numbers of people throughout the world are displaced by conflict, catastrophic weather events and natural disasters. War and persecution have displaced more than 65 million people today, many of whom have fled their own countries, placing a great burden on the low-and middle-income countries hosting them. Meanwhile, for the first time in more than a decade, the number of hungry people is on the rise again—increasing from 777 million in 2015 to 815 million in 2016. Almost 60 percent of those 815 million undernourished people live in countries affected by conflict. War contributes to the disruption of food systems and produces hunger. More people died of starvation in World War II than from fighting. This relationship also exists in the opposite direction: Hunger produces instability. When people do not have enough food to feed themselves or their families, they are more likely to make decisions out of desperation. This manifests itself in diverse ways: Sometimes in social unrest and protest, and other times in recruitment to violent movements offering short-term relief in exchange for loyalty to depraved ideologies. History shows us that U.S. leadership is essential in fighting hunger and promoting global stability. We must continue to provide that leadership as a nation, building on a long legacy of bipartisan cooperation that we proudly championed during our time in Congress. But we must also go further than we have before in an effort to keep pace with growing global needs and unprecedented challenges. If we turn our backs on the world’s hungry, we lay the foundation for a deteriorating and, ultimately, threatening world order. Sen. Bob Dole Sen. Tom Daschle Former Majority Leader Former Majority Leader 2 Preface The world is facing a humanitarian crisis on a scale never before seen. For the first time in a decade, the number of hungry people is on the rise, and families suffering from violence, conflict and persecution are crossing borders in record numbers. Both threaten global stability and to roll back years of development progress. Food insecurity is both a consequence and a driver of global instability. The former—food insecurity as a byproduct of war—is well understood. Conflict displaces people, topples markets and destroys critical infrastructure, each undermining agricultural production and access to food. The ways in which food insecurity serves as a driver of instability itself, though self-evident, is less well documented, and has traditionally lacked a strong empirical base to support the anecdotal understanding of this relationship. It was this gap that we set out to fill through this report. The timing of this work is critical for several reasons. First, the dominant driver of today’s humanitarian crises is conflict. Ten of the World Food Programme’s (WFP) 13 largest and most complex emergencies are driven by conflict, and responding to war and instability represents 80 percent of all humanitarian spending today. These crises are stretching humanitarian organizations beyond their limits. Understanding how food insecurity drives instability is critical to developing strategies to help alleviate this important driver of insecurity. Second, the evidence base on the food insecurity and instability relationship—in the form of peer reviewed academic journal articles—has grown substantially in the last decade. In fact, almost three quarters of studies examined in this report were produced in the last five years. This work is timely in capturing a wealth of new studies only recently produced. These studies have served to widen the geographic distribution of analyses, introduce new control variables and qualitative checks, and ultimately to improve our understanding of the conditions mediating the relationship between food insecurity and instability. Third, given the magnitude of the humanitarian crisis and its impact on global stability, advocates for foreign assistance spending in the U.S. and beyond must begin to gather a broader coalition of support to ensure that the immediate, lifesaving needs of vulnerable people are met. In 2016, only 56% of the $22.1 billion requested in the global humanitarian appeal was provided. Securing the political will to meet these immediate needs necessarily involves understanding the diverse rationale for supporting humanitarian operations—moral, economic and security. Acknowledging the security dividends of humanitarian assistance does not simultaneously imply that we abandon our core principles for providing international assistance based on objective need, neutrality and impartiality. Similarly, responding to conflict-driven crises does not constitute a tradeoff between meeting the needs of the world’s most vulnerable and ensuring global stability; they increasingly are one and the same. Richard Leach President & CEO World Food Program USA Table of Contents Executive Summary 6 1. Introduction 14 1.a The state of food insecurity and the global humanitarian crisis 15 1.b The evolving U.S. development-security nexus 18 2. Setting the stage: Methodology and key considerations 22 2.a Motivations: Grievance, greed or governance 28 Grievance 29 Economic 29 Governance 32 3. Categories of food-related instability 34 3.a Agricultural resource competition 35 Land 36 Water 38 An army marches on its stomach: Feeding a rebellion 39 3.b Market failure 41 Urban Bias 44 Market Insulation 45 Other market-related drivers of instability 47 3.c Extreme weather events 47 Temperature 48 Rainfall 49 4. Development in reverse: How conflict creates food insecurity 52 4 5. Food fights back: Severing the link between food insecurity and conflict 58 5.a Emergency food assistance 59 5.b Agricultural development 63 5.c Nutrition 64 5.d Safety net systems 65 6. Conclusion 68 Annexes 72 Annex 1. ‘High priority’ academic articles on food-related instability (n=53) 72 Annex 2. Review search criteria and database specifications 84 Annex 3. Global food security and fragility 85 References 87 Boxes Box 1. The agricultural economics of rebellion in Somalia 31 Box 2. Food as a weapon of war: Agri-terrorism 40 Box 3. The first climate change conflict: Sudan and South Sudan 50 Box 4. Conflict and famine 54 Box 5. The “new normal” of protracted humanitarian crises 62 Box 6. Ethiopia’s social safety net 66 5 Executive Summary The relationship between food insecurity and instability dates back to the origins of human existence, long before the establishment of modern agriculture and today’s globalized food supply chain. The evidence presented in this report shows that, even in today’s modern world, the relationship between food insecurity and instability remains strong and has critical implications for how the world addresses global security challenges. While the link between food insecurity and instability is intrinsically understood in policy and academic circles, it has seen increased attention in recent years due to the changing nature of global conflicts and the current scale of humanitarian need. Today, the humanitarian system is defined by the following characteristics: • For the first time in a decade, the number of hungry people in the world is on the rise. In 2016, 815 million people were undernourished, an increase of 38 million people from 2015. Almost 500 million of the world’s hungry live in countries affected by conflict. • The number of people who are acutely food-insecure (in need of emergency assistance) rose from 80 million in 2016 to 108 million in 2017—a 35 percent increase in a single year. • Over 65 million people are currently displaced because of violence, conflict and persecution—more than any other time since World War II.